20* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 150.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have one of their best offenses in program history and they are playing faster this season.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted tempo.  The Badgers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 151 with Michigan State, 156 with UCLA and 161 with Penn State.  The only game that went under was against a Northwestern team that is a dead nuts under team that plays slow and is without two of its top three scorers due to injury.

Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team that ranks 61st in adjusted tempo, 22nd in average length of offensive possession and 37th in adjusted offense.  Both Big Ten Tournament games for Michigan went OVER the total as well combining for 154 points with Purdue and 161 with Maryland.

I think what's keeping this total lower than it should be is the fact that the only meeting between Wisconsin and Michigan this season went way under the total with the Wolverines winning 67-64 for just 131 combined points.  Both both teams shot uncharacteristically poor with Michigan going 23-of-59 (39%) from the floor and 6-of-25 (24%) from 3 while Wisconsin shot 22-of-64 (34.4%) from the floor and 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3.  Both teams are due positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Louisville/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Louisville +6.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury in their ACC Tournament opener to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  I cashed in UNC +7.5 yesterday fading Duke without these two, and I'm fading them again today as they should not be 6.5-point favorites over Louisville without Flagg and Brown.

Duke showed a ton of heart in the first half against UNC yesterday with an inspired effort to prove they could still win without Flagg.  The Blue Devils led by 21 at halftime, but then reality set in and UNC stormed back to get within 1, only to commit a lane violation that cost them the game in a 74-71 defeat.

I have Louisville power rated a few points better than North Carolina, so I'll gladly take the points again.  The Cardinals are battle-tested coming through clutch late to prevent comebacks by Stanford and Clemson the last two days.  I think they have what it takes to hang with Duke, especially knowing they don't have to deal with Flagg and Brown.

Duke beat Louisville by 11 in their lone regular season meeting this season.  But Flagg had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Brown had 6 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals.  That's a combined 26 points and 23 rebounds the Blue Devils will be without in the rematch.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's -4.5

The St. John's Red Storm have a huge home-court advantage in the Big East Tournament playing at Madison Square Garden.  They have made easy work of their first two opponents beating Butler 78-57 as 12-point favorites and Marquette 79-63 as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Red Storm should still be pretty fresh for this game against Creighton due to the blowout nature of their first two games.  Meanwhile, Creighton was in a couple dog fights the last two days, needing 2 OT to beat DePaul 85-81 as 13-point favorites on Thursday and staving off a big comeback by UConn in a 71-62 win on Friday.

You could see Creighton players breathing heavily as UConn nearly erased a 15-point deficit in the 2H.  Now the Bluejays go up against a St. John's team that will test your stamina more than just about any team in the country.  They will give Creighton zero room to breathe.  The Red Storm rank 49th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They press for 40 minutes and make everyone work for everything they get offensively.  They rank 1st in adjusted defense.

Finally, St. John's hasn't won the Big East Tournament since 2000.  That's 25 years of suffering, and you can bet the Red Storm will be max motivated today to get it done.  I expect them to win in a blowout as Creighton tires out in the 2H, while the Red Storm only get stronger.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* Boise State/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  They want to earn the automatic bid and not leave it up to the committee.

Colorado State led Utah State by as many as 28 points in the 2H yesterday in a misleading 11-point win.  The Rams were able to rest their starters late so they should still be pretty fresh for this game.  Meanwhile, Boise State has been in dog fights the last two days against San Diego State and New Mexico.  I question how much the Broncos have left in the tank, especially with their lack of depth with three starters playing at least 36 minutes yesterday in their 3-point win over New Mexico.

Colorado State beat Boise State 75-72 as 1-point home dogs in their first meeting back on January 22nd before winning 83-73 as 6-point road dogs in their 2nd meeting on March 7th.  What more do the Rams have to do to get some respect? They'll earn it again tonight.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/George Mason Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on George Mason +1

George Mason has a huge rest advantage over St. Joe's today and should not be underdogs as a result.  The Patriots got a bye into the quarterfinals yesterday before blasting George Washington 80-65.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days and should still be fresh after the blowout win.

St. Joe's will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two dog fights the last two days.  The Hawks only beat La Salle 75-70 as 12.5-point favorites on Thursday before needing OT to beat Dayton 73-68 on Friday.  I love fading teams in these conference tournaments coming off OT games because they tend to run out of gas in their next game.

George Mason beat St. Joe's 58-57 in their lone meeting this season.  They won that game despite St. Joe's shooting 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range while the Patriots shot just 2-of-10 (20%).  Positive shooting regression can only be the case in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* Michigan/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -4

I cashed in both Maryland and Michigan yesterday as premium plays.  But only one of these teams is a contender while the other is a pretender.  I'll gladly back the contender in Maryland laying the short number against the pretender in Michigan.

Maryland is playing as well as anyone in the country right now going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Michigan State by 3, one of the best teams in the country.  The Terrapins made easy work of Illinois 88-65 yesterday which allowed its started to rest late and stay fresh for this game.  That's an Illinois team that was coming off four straight blowout wins including a 20-point win at Michigan.

Michigan is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall with that 20-point loss to Illinois, a 17-point loss at Michigan State and also a 6-point home loss to this same Maryland team.  The Terrapins shot just 38.1% from the field in that game and still won by 6 on the road.  There's just not much room for improvement for the Wolverines on a neutral in the rematch.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Utah State/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Utah State is pretty much locked into the NCAA Tournament now after a 70-58 win over UNLV yesterday against a Rebels team that was missing two of their best players.  I wasn't impressed at all with that win.

What I was impressed with was Colorado State handing Utah State its worst loss of the season in a 93-66 home win on March 1st just two weeks ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and the Rams should be favored here by a lot more.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

20* Cal Poly/UC-Irvine Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine -10

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Cal Poly will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while UC-Irvine got a bye into the semifinals.  That's a huge rest advantage for the Anteaters, who have been off since March 8th and are highly motivated to get to the final.  Irvine beat Cal Poly 101-71 in their last meeting this season.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

20* UConn/Creighton Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5

It's Tournament Time and the UConn Huskies are as dangerous as they come in tournament action.  They won the NCAA title the last two years, and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  UConn is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

While UConn made easy work of Villanova in a 73-56 win yesterday, Creighton had to go to double-overtime to beat lowly DePaul 85-81 (2 OT) yesterday.  The Bluejays lack depth as it is, and Kalbrenner played 47 minutes while Neal played all 50 in the win.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Huskies today.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* UNC/Duke ACC No-Brainer on UNC +7.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury yesterday to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  They will almost certainly be without both guys today.

Duke should not be 7.5-point favorites over North Carolina without Flagg and Brown.  Flagg had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists to lead the Blue Devils to a 82-69 win over UNC in the regular-season finale.  Brown had 8 points and was a menace switching on the perimeter to stop UNC's guards down the stretch.  UNC led basically the entire way until the final few minutes with Duke pulling away late.  UNC wants revenge and has a great shot at getting that revenge today without having to deal with Flagg and Brown.  Bet UNC Friday.

20* Illinois/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -1

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Illinois played an absolute shootout against Iowa yesterday in a 106-94 victory and I question how much they'll have left in the tank.

Maryland got a bye into the quarterfinals.  The Terrapins already beat Illinois 91-70 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* Texas/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -9.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Texas will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while Tennessee got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Texas was in two dog fights the last two days beating Vanderbilt 79-72 before upsetting Texas A&M 94-89 (2 OT) yesterday.  That 2 OT game will make the Longhorns even more tired head into this one as three starters played at least 40 minutes yesterday.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

20* UNLV/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State -7

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Villanova/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -9

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Nevada/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State -4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Texas/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -6

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Northwestern/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -7.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Davidson/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Saint Louis -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Arkansas/Ole Miss SEC No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Iowa State/BYU Big 12 No-Brainer on BYU +3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Rutgers PK

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State -1

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on McNeese State -12.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Colorado/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 134.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Pepperdine/St. Mary’s ESPN No-Brainer on St. Mary’s -18.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 124

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 67% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 9-1 (90%) in the first 10 games of the MVC Tournament this season.  

It will be more of the same in the Championship Game today.  This will be the 3d meeting between Drake and Bradley this season.  The first two saw just 121 and 120 combined points.  I expect an even lower-scoring game in the title game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina +5.5

East Carolina is alive for a Top 4 seed in the AAC which would get the Pirates a double-bye in the AAC Tournament.  They need to win today and have Tulane lose to UAB, and the Green Wave are underdogs to the Blazers so that is a very realistic possibility.

Florida Atlantic has nothing to play for today.  They haven't been playing well at all down the stretch going 1-4 SU in their last five games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.  They should not be this big of favorites today.

East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall with its lone loss coming on the road by 5 points.  The Pirates are playing the much better basketball right now, and not only will they be motivated for a double-bye, but they also want revenge from a 78-76 loss to FAU in their first meeting this season way back on January 5th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since then, and that will play out on the court today.  Bet East Carolina Sunday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona State ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 151.5

Texas Tech beat Arizona State 111-106 (2 OT) in their first meeting this season on February 12th.  But that game was still tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points, so we have 28.5 points to spare in the rematch with this 151.5-point total.

The Red Raiders just got two of their top three scorers back from injury in McMillian and Williams two games ago.  They won 78-73 at Kansas for 151 combined points and 91-75 at home over Colorado for 166 combined points.  Kansas is a dead nuts under team with all defense and suspect offense, and the same goes for Colorado.

Now the Red Raiders face an Arizona State team that has completely let go of the rope defensively down the stretch.  The Sun Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall, including three straight absolute shootouts losing 91-81 to BYU for 172 combined points, losing 99-73 to Utah for 172 combined points and losing 113-100 to Arizona for 213 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +11.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most improved teams in the country here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.2 points per game.

This late surge has put the Tar Heels on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Duke would cement their spot.  They want revenge from a 87-70 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season as 13.5-point dogs.  This line is now 11.5 in the rematch, which isn't adjusted enough for home-court advantage.  It should be much closer to 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tar Heels win this game outright.

No question Duke will be motivated to beat their rival, but I don't think they'll have the same motivation they normally would going into this rivalry game.  They have already clinched an ACC regular season title and are locked in to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They already beat UNC by 17 as well, so there's not as much of a sense of urgency after already blowing them out once.  But this is a totally different UNC team from that first meeting, and I expect them to give the Blue Devils a run for their money today.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Valparaiso/Bradley MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Bradley beat Murray State 70-62 yesterday for just 132 combined points, while Valparaiso beat Northern Iowa 64-63 yesterday for just 127 combined points.  Bradley and Valparaiso combined for 126 and 141 points at the end of regulation in their two regular season meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida SEC No-Brainer on OVER 156.5

Florida ranks 67th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense.  Ole Miss also prefers to play faster ranking 132nd in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted offense.  This is a matchup of elite guards on both sides, and it should be a shootout in the regular season finale.

Ole Miss is 7-2 OVER in its last nine games overall, including 171 combined points with Oklahoma, 182 with Auburn, 174 with Auburn and 182 with Kentucky.  Florida is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall combining for 171 points with Georgia, 159 with Texas A&M and 193 with Alabama.  

Ole Miss beat Florida 103-85 for 188 combined points in their lone meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Belmont/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 138.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 for just 111 combined points in their lone regular season meeting.  Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo and slows games down to a crawl.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Miami OVER 149

Both Miami and NC State are going to finish in the Bottom 3 of the ACC standings and thus will not be playing in the ACC Tournament.  So this is a completely meaningless game and the final game of the season for both teams.  I expect all offense and zero defense as this game is played like a pick up game.

All Miami games are played like a pick up game.  The Hurricanes are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 163 combined points with Georgia Tech, 165 with UNC, 157 with Duke and 149 with Virginia Tech.  The Hurricanes are playing zero defense here down the stretch allowing 89.8 points per game in their last four.  They rank 68th in adjusted offense and 341st in adjusted defense this season.

NC State is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The 2024 ACC Tournament champs won't get that chance to make another run.  Look for them to let go of the rope defensively today and oblige in a shootout with the Hurricanes.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso/Northern Iowa UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland -1

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while covering the spread by a combined 75.5 points in those six games, or an average of 12.6 points per game.  All five of their ATS wins came by at least 10.5 points.

I'm willing to forgive Portland for a 82-80 road loss at San Diego as 2-point favorites in their regular season finale because they had nothing to play for.  It was Senior Night for San Diego and they were clearly the more motivated team.  San Diego went on to upset Pacific in the WCC Tournament yesterday.

Pepperdine is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone win coming at home over San Diego.  That includes two 20-point losses to Portland, and there's no way the Waves should be getting this much respect again in their 3rd and final meeting.  The Pilots will obviously be max motivated with their season on the line and won't take the Waves lightly.  It's going to be another blowout in their favor.  Bet Portland Friday.

20* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss +4

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a big letdown spot after a 79-76 home win over Alabama on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Vols have been much more vulnerable on the road, going 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in SEC road games with three of those wins coming by single-digits.

Ole Miss is 11-3 SU at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  This is a game I fully expect the Rebels to win outright.  Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rhode Island/St. Joe's OVER 153.5

Rhode Island is very much an OVER team ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo.  The Rams are 17-10 OVER in all games this season.  The Rams are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 157 or more combined points in five of them.

St. Joe's is one of the best offensive teams in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have scored at least 75 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They rank 135th in adjusted tempo so they don't mind getting up and down.

The OVER is 3-0 in Hawks last three games overall, including 166 combined points with Fordham last time out.  This will be yet another shootout involving Rhode Island tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is coming off a 22-point home win over Creighton.  Joe Lunardi has them listed on the First 4 Out line, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they won't have a letdown here off the Creighton win and despite the fact that they just beat Butler by 13 at home a few weeks ago.

Butler is 6-12 in Big East play this season with all six wins coming against teams that rank in the bottom half of the conference standings, and five of them coming against the bottom 3 teams in the Big East.

I like the fact that Xavier is rested playing just its 2nd game in 10 days with that 22-point win over Creighton being their lone game during this stretch.  I expect a big effort from the Musketeers tonight.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/UCF OVER 163.5

These are two dead nuts OVER teams that play at the fastest pace in the Big 12.  UCF ranks 13th in adjusted tempo while Oklahoma State ranks 20th.  So this game will see a ton of possessions.

We saw what happened when these teams got together just a few weeks ago with Oklahoma State winning 104-95 for 199 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

It's not like either team shot lights as neither team shot better than 47% from the field.  They combined to go 14-of-51 (27.5%) from 3-point range, so if anything there is room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* BYU/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Iowa State is now fully healthy with Jones, Gilbert and Momcilovic back in the lineup.  The Cyclones rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense despite being without these guys at various points this season.  They are a dangerous offensive team when fully healthy as this is the best offense of TJ Otzelberger era by far.

Speaking of elite offense, the BYU Cougars rank 12th in adjusted offense this season.  They rank 4th in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point percentage.  They are a very tough team to defend, and that has really been on display here down the stretch.

The Cougars are 6-0 SU in their last six games overall while scoring at least 73 points in all six games, including 91 or more three times.  The Cougars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 148 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  The only games that went under that total were two games against a dead nuts under team in WVU and Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UTSA +9

The Memphis Tigers are coming off a huge 88-81 road win at UAB on Sunday as 1-point underdogs.  That win assured that they can now clinch the AAC title with either a win tonight or a home win over USF on Friday.  Knowing they have that game against USF at home in their back pocket, I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers.

UTSA is one of the most underrated teams in the AAC due to its poor 11-17 record this season.  But the Roadrunners are so much better than that record would indicate when you look at the results.  UTSA is 1-6 SU in its last seven games but the six losses all came by 7 points or fewer, so they have been very unlucky in close games.

UTSA took out its frustration with a 84-56 home win over Rice last time out.  Now the Roadrunners will treat this game against ranked Memphis as their 'national championship' game tonight.  An upset win here would make their season.

UTSA will be playing just its 2nd game in 9 days, while Memphis will be playing its 4th game in 10 days.  The Roadrunners have the rest and preparation advantage, and I have no doubt they will be the more motivated team tonight.  Bet UTSA Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Georgia Tech OVER 148.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 69th in adjusted offense but just 339th in adjusted defense.  The Hurricanes are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 149 points with Virginia Tech, 157 with Duke and 165 with North Carolina.

Georgia Tech is playing in some high-scoring games here down the stretch as well.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo and like to play faster.  I don't expect much defense being played in this game with both teams with nothing to play for and looking ahead to the ACC Tournament.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UNC/VA Tech ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 149.5

North Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 30th in adjusted tempo, 22nd in adjusted offense and 78th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-0 in Tar Heels last six games overall with 150 or more combined points in five of those six games with the lone exception being 147 against a dead nuts under team in Virginia.

Virginia Tech is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Hokies are coming off a 101-95 (OT) home win over Syracuse in which the game was tied 82-82 at the end of regulation for 164 combined points.  I expect another shootout tonight as this 149.5-point total is very low for a game involving UNC right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Wake Forest/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +20.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while continuing to cover massive numbers.  But this has also been their easiest stretch of the conference seasons with their last six wins coming against Stanford, Cal, Virginia, Miami, FSU and Illinois.

Now the Blue Devils have their toughest test since a 77-71 road loss at Clemson.  Wake Forest hung right with Duke at home on January 25th in their first meeting losing 63-56 as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they are 20.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

Wake Forest kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 74-71 home win over Notre Dame last time out.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Demon Deacons after failing to cover each of their last three.

This is the rare season where the Demon Deacons have actually played their best basketball on the road.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  They haven't lost a road game by more than 15 points all season.  They haven't lost any of their 29 games by more than 17 points all season, making for a 29-0 system backing the Demon Deacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.

This is their last ditch effort to make the NCAA Tournament with an upset of Duke.  They'll be 'all in' tonight, while Duke could be caught looking ahead to its regular season finale against rival UNC.  Bet Wake Forest Monday.

20* Memphis/UAB ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 159.5

Both Memphis and UAB are dead nuts OVER teams.  Memphis ranks 41st in adjusted tempo while UAB ranks 89th in adjusted tempo, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game which will lead to more points.  UAB is 36th in adjusted offense but just 276th in adjusted defense.

UAB had no answer for Memphis in their first meeting this season losing 100-77 on the road for 177 combined points.  The Blazers shot just 38.5% as a team in that game and still scored 77, so they are obviously due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 177, 193 and 185 combined points.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving UAB and Memphis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Murray State/Belmont OVER 150

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 64th in adjusted offense and 278th in adjusted defense.  The Bruins are 19-10 OVER in all games and 11-3 OVER in home games.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.

Murray State is 13-4 OVER in road games this season.  They struggle to control the tempo on the road because they like to play slower.  They are coming off two shootouts losing 85-83 to Bradley and beating Indiana State 85-75.

Belmont beat Murray State 95-77 for 172 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we have 22 points to work with in the rematch with this total of just 150.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland ML -135

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 79.5 points in those five games, or an average of roughly 16 points per game.  They have covered all five games by at least 10.5 points.

The Pilots remain undervalued as short road favorites against a San Diego team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the last seed in the WCC Tournament.  The Toreros are 4-26 this season, including 0-16 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They lost by 10 at Portland in their first meeting this season, and it will be more of the same in the rematch.  Bet Portland on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Arizona/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -6

Iowa State is going to be fully healthy for this game with Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) returning to the lineup.  Curtis Jones (16.9 PPG) returned to the lineup last game, and Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG) looks back to full strength after missing seven games in the middle of conference season.  Iowa State's only loss this season when fully healthy came at the buzzer against No. 1 Auburn on a neutral.

Off an upset loss at Oklahoma State and out for revenge on Arizona, I expect a huge effort from the Cyclones today.  They didn't lose a single home game all last year and they have lost just one home game this season.  The Cyclones are 33-1 SU in their last 34 home games.  They have arguably the best home-court advantage in the entire country, and it will be lit inside Hilton Coliseum for a Saturday night game.

Iowa State lost at Arizona in OT after Caleb Love hit a 65-footer at the buzzer to force OT.  The Cyclones have been in a bit of a spiral since, but it has been more due to injuries than to the nature of that defeat.  They avenge that loss in a big way with a blowout home win tonight.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati +15

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  Houston is coming off two very satisfying wins over Iowa State at home and Texas Tech on the road.  The win over the Red Raiders was extra sweet because they avenged an earlier home loss to them.

But those two wins come with a big asterisk.  Iowa State was without its top two scorers and the Cougars were in a dog fight with them eventually winning by 9 as 11.5-point closing favorites.  And then they lucked out against Texas Tech who was without 2 of its top 3 scorers as late scratches.  The Cougars took a ton of money and needed to pull away in the final seconds to win by 8.

Now let's look at what Houston has on deck.  They have Kansas on deck at home for Senior Night on Monday and could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They close the season at Baylor.  So this is the ultimate sandwich spot after facing ISU and Texas Tech with Kansas and Baylor on deck.  This is where the Cougars will be flat, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 15-point spread.

Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season right now fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston would stamp their ticket and they know it.  The Bearcats are 5-2 SU & 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 10 at UCF, by 18 at home over BYU, by 10 at home over Utah, by 12 at home over TCU and by 2 at home over Baylor.  They only lost by 11 at Iowa State as 11.5-point dogs and by 3 at WVU as 3-point dogs.

Five of the last six meetings between Cincinnati and Houston have been decided by 13 points or fewer.  This one will be much closer than expected.  I like the fact that both teams play slow so this game will see very few possessions.  Houston ranks 361st in adjusted tempo while Cincinnati ranks 294th.  Houston hasn't won any of its last 10 games by more than 15 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier ML -135

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been off since February 23rd, so they have had an entire week to rest and prepare to get revenge on Creighton.

Creighton beat Xavier 86-77 at home in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Xavier shot 42.4% from the field while Creighton shot 52.6% from the field, so the Musketeers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Xavier is 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  Their only two losses came to St. John's by 10 and Marquette by 2.  They have won each of their last five home games including a victory over UConn.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the Big East.

Creighton is struggling down the stretch going 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bluejays were upset at home by UConn and had lackluster home wins over Georgetown by 11 as 12.5-point favorites and DePaul by 10 as 16-point favorites.  They also lost at St. John's in their lone road game during this stretch.  Bet Xavier on the Money Line Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State ML -135

Colorado State is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  The Rams are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and grossly undervalued.  All three losses came on the road to three of the top teams in the conference in SDSU, New Mexico and Utah State.

Now the Rams want revenge on the Aggies after losing 93-85 to them on the road in their first meeting this season.  Utah State shot 59.3% from the field while Colorado State shot just 45.5%.  The Aggies also shot 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range and still only won by 8.  It's safe to say the Rams are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch.

Utah State has been vulnerable on the road.  They have road losses to Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico and barely beat Wyoming by 4 and Fresno State by 8, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Boise State.  Bet Colorado State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Auburn/Kentucky ABC No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5

Kentucky is close to back to full strength and a very dangerous team when that's the case.  Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) returned from a three-game absence to help lead the Wildcats to an 83-82 win at Oklahoma last time out.  He should be even stronger in this game.

Kentucky has been a wagon at home this season.  The Wildcats are 14-2 SU at home with impressive wins over Vanderbilt by 21, Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 23, Texas A&M by 12 and Florida by 6.  They know they can play with Auburn at home.

Auburn has already clinched at least a share of the SEC title and will have a hard time being all that motivated over their final three games of the season because of it.  I think they are ripe for an upset today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Kentucky OVER 164.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team especially since they have a healthy Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) back in the lineup after a three-game absence.  The Wildcats rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 6th in adjusted offense and just 62nd in adjusted defense.  They have scored at least 75 points in nine consecutive games and 82 or more in three straight.

Auburn also prefers to play faster ranking 124th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted offense.  They are a tough team to tame on offense, and that has been on display scoring at least 80 points in eight of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina ML -115

South Carolina finally picked up its first SEC win of the season in a 84-69 home win over Texas.  Predictably, the Gamecocks fell flat on their faces last game losing by 30 at Missouri.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Gamecocks today.

It's time to 'sell high' on Arkansas, which has gone 5-3 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Razorbacks were getting by without Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) after he suffered a season-ending injury.  But now they are also without Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG), and they cannot afford to be without both of them.

South Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six SEC home games with that 15-point win over Texas, plus a 4-point loss to Ole Miss as 4-point dogs, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M as 5.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss in OT to Mississippi State as 7-point dogs, a 1-point loss to Florida as 11.5-point dogs and a 3-point loss to Auburn as 16.5-point dogs.  The Gamecocks have shown they can play with the top teams in the league at home, and now they actually take a big step down in class here against the Razorbacks and should take advantage.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Michigan Wolverines are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Amazingly, each of their last 8 wins have come by 4 points or fewer.  That includes their 49-46 win at Nebraska on Thursday.

Now the Wolverines will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They play a Rutgers team that will only be playing its 2nd game in 8 days, which is a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation.

Michigan beat Rutgers 66-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  But Rutgers didn't have its best player in Dylan Harper (19.4 PPG) due to injury in that game.  Harper returned to the lineup after that loss to Michigan for the past six games and has scored at least 20 points in four of them.

What makes that 3-point loss to Michigan even more impressive is the fact that Rutgers shot just 32.8% from the field while Michigan shot 47.8%.  The Scarlet Knights can only have positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch with Harper.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +11

The Boston College Eagles have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home wins over Georgia Tech by 15 and Virginia Tech by 18 and they aren't getting the respect they deserve right now.

We saw the Eagles recently take North Carolina to OT as 19.5-point road underdogs.  They only lost by 8 at NC State and by 9 at Syracuse.  The Eagles have only lost one of their last eight games by double-digits, and that was against Louisville, which is one of the top teams in the ACC.

Stanford is coming off a 66-61 home win over rival California.  That sets the Cardinal up for a letdown spot here.  Stanford is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Cardinal haven't won any of their last eight games by more than 9 points.  This number is clearly inflated.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +14.5

Memphis is in 1st place in the American Athletic.  The Tigers just beat FAU last time out.  Now they have an even bigger game on deck against UAB, which is trailing Memphis by just one game for 1st place.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Tigers, who will be overlooking Rice tonight.

Rice nearly upset Memphis in a 86-83 home loss as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost by 3 despite Memphis shooting 55% from the field and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range.  I'm confident Memphis won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Rice has quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and has been competitive in every game.  The Owls haven't lost any of their last 12 games by more than 11 points, and they have just one loss by double-digits in those 12 games.

Rice pulled the 74-71 upset at Memphis as identical 14.5-point dogs last season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.  They always play to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  Bet Rice Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/North Dakota State OVER 169

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes are 20-5 OVER in all games including 10-3 OVER in all road/neutral games.  The books just can't set these South Dakota totals high enought.

North Dakota State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bison are 18-9 OVER in all games this season, including 9-2 OVER In all home games.

North Dakota State beat South Dakota 103-77 for 180 combined points in their first meeting this season.  South Dakota only shot 43.5% from the floor and 23.8% from 3, so the Coyotes have room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Gonzaga/Santa Clara WCC Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been overvalued all season.  They are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They were even 7-point home favorites over St. Mary's on Saturday and lost outright 74-67 as the Gaels completed the season sweep.

Now I think it's Santa Clara's turn to complete the season sweep after upsetting Gonzaga 103-99 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Now the Broncos get the Bulldogs at home.  I think the loss to St. Mary's is the type of loss that could beat Gonzaga twice as they are simply looking ahead to the WCC Tournament at this point.

The Broncos are grossly undervalued right now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at St. Mary's by 9 as 12-point dogs.  They crushed all other comers beating Pacific by 34, Portland by 47, San Diego by 23, Loyola-Marymount by 15 and Washington State by 30.  Bet Santa Clara Tuesday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans are 19-7 ATS this season as one of the best covering teams in the country.  They went 1-3 ATS in games in which leading scorer Josh Uduje (16.4 PPG) was either limited or out.

But Uduje returned to the lineup on Saturday and scored 29 points in a 82-73 road win at Wyoming.  Second-leading scorer Will McClendon (12.0 PPG) was also out the same games that Uduje was absent from.  There's a good chance he returns tonight.

UNLV leading scorer Dedan Thomas (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) got hurt two games ago in a 52-51 win at Fresno State as 8-point favorites.  Thomas sat out the Rebels' 61-53 home loss to Colorado State as 2-point dogs.  Thomas is out again tonight, and the Rebels are lost offensively without him.

San Jose State wants revenge from a 79-73 road loss at UNLV on January 4th.  Thomas led the Rebels with 17 points in that first matchup, so not having him in the rematch is a huge blow.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati -2

The Cincinnati Bearcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games with their only losses coming on the road to Iowa State and West Virginia.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home during this stretch beating BYU by 18, Utah by 10 and TCU by 12.

The Baylor Bears have gone the other direction.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming at home over West Virginia in overtime.  They lost by 11 at Houston, by 7 at home to Arizona and by 2 at Colorado as 6-point favorites.  That's a Colorado team with just two conference wins all season.

Cincinnati wants revenge from a 68-48 road loss early on in the Big 12 season at Baylor.  They shot 34.7% from the floor while Baylor shot 50%.  Josh Ojianwuna had 10 points and 7 rebounds in that matchup, but has since been lost for the season.  The Bears lack any inside defensive presence since losing him, which is a big reason for their struggles.

Baylor is just 2-8 SU in true road games this season.  Cincinnati is 11-4 SU in all home games.  Bet Cincinnati Tuesday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee/Robert Morris OVER 150

This is a rematch from a 81-79 road win by Robert Morris on January 19th.  Neither team shot the lights out as Robert Morris shot 44.3% from the floor while Milwaukee shot 50.9%.  I think these teams push 160 again in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* BYU/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

The Arizona Wildcats profile as an OVER team due to ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home against BYU, which ranks 201st in adjusted tempo.  But the Cougars are elite on offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense and 61st in adjusted defense as they are a bit undersized.

Arizona beat BYU 85-74 for 159 combined points on February 4th in heir first meeting this season.  The Wildcats shot 49.2% overall and 38.1% from 3-point range with a pretty average offensive output.  BYU has a lot of room for positive regression in the rematch after shooting 41.8% overall, 29.4% from 3-point range and 57.1% from the FT line.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Illinois/Duke OVER 152.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 16th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The Ducks are 11-5-1 OVER in their last 17 games with 154 or more combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  This total of 152.5 is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.

The Fighting Illini have allowed at least 74 points in 10 consecutive games.  Now they must face a Duke team that ranks 2nd in the country in adjusted offense and 3rd in effective FG percentage.  The OVER is 5-2 in Duke's last seven games overall.  They have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their last 15 games overall and will no doubt top 80 in this one.

I like the fact that this is a non-conference game and these teams are not familiar with one another, and unfamiliarity favors offense and high scoring games.  I also like the fact that both teams are missing key big men which will force them to play more small ball and hurt them defensively.

Illinois is without F Morez Johnson Jr. (7.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG) while Duke is without F Maliq Brown (2.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG).  Those are two of the best defenders on their respective teams.  This game will also be played in Madison Square Garden so both offenses will be looking to put on a show.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/Omaha OVER 170.5

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 19-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 105th in adjusted offense and 346th in adjusted defense.

The Omaha Mavericks are also a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 168th in adjusted tempo, 108th in adjusted offense and 288th in adjusted defense.  The Mavericks are scoring 83.9 points per game in conference play while the Coyotes are scoring 84.5 points per game.

South Dakota beat Omaha 91-87 for 178 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Neither team lit it up from 3 or from the FT line.  Omaha shot 7-of-21 (33.3%) from 3 and 14-of-20 (70%) from the FT line.  South Dakota shot 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3 and 19-of-31 (61.3%) from the FT line.  If anything they both have room for positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida/LSU OVER 152.5

The Florida Gators have gone more small ball without F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG).  They haven't missed a beat offensively scoring at least 81 points in six consecutive games coming into this one.  The Gators rank 77th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season.

The LSU Tigers also like to push the tempo, ranking 116th in adjusted tempo this season.  They have been impressive offensively here down the stretch scoring at least 80 points in six of their last eight games overall.  I think Florida for sure tops 80 in this one, and LSU will at least get close to that number as we easily cash this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +9.5

Note: I put in this play before I found out the news that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I added the UNDER 133.5 since and like that play a lot more.  I no longer recommend a bet on Iowa State, but if you receive this play then bet on the UNDER 133.5 instead.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Houston UNDER 133.5

After releasing Iowa State +9.5, I found out that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I immediately added the UNDER 133.5 as I think that's a very strong play with those two out, and it will likely cancel out the loss on Iowa State.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 361st in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted defense.  The Cougars allow 57.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting, including 51.6 points per game on 36.1% shooting at home.

Iowa State ranks 10th in adjusted defense.  The Cyclones allow 66.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting.  Without Gilbert and Jones, I don't expect the Cyclones to top 60 points.  But I think they can hold Houston below 70, especially with how slow the Cougars play.

The UNDER went 2-1 in three meetings last season with 110 and 110 combined points in both unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +4.5

I love the spot for North Dakota today.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat their biggest rivals in North Dakota State.  They are out for revenge after a 87-82 road loss to the Bison on January 25th in their first meeting this season.

This is a terrible spot for the North Dakota State.  The Bison just upset South Dakota State 77-68 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, avenging an earlier defeat to what they consider their biggest rivals.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat their 'little brother' in the Fighting Hawks again, and they only have two days in between games to prepare.  I expect the Bison to fall flat on their faces today and lose this game outright.

North Dakota has been impressive in two of its last three home games beating Oral Roberts 88-77 as 6-point favorites and upsetting South Dakota State 80-75 as 6.5-point dogs.  The Fighting Hawks have been competitive in every Summit League home game this season.  Keep in mind they only lost by 7 to Alabama as 25-point home dogs earlier this season as well.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.

20* Oregon/Wisconsin FOX No-Brainer on OVER 153.5

These aren't your daddy's Wisconsin Badgers.  They are an explosive offensive team that is playing with more tempo while also taking a step back defensively.  Books have failed to adjusted their totals up high enough, especially here of late.

The Badgers are scoring 82.0 points per game overall while ranking 6th in adjusted offense.  Their last two games were very impressive beating Purdue 94-84 for 178 combined points and Illinois 95-74 for 169 combined points.

Now they face another OVER team in Oregon which ranks 33rd in adjusted offense but just 53rd in adjusted defense.  The Ducks are coming off an 80-78 road win at Iowa for 158 combined points.  They have scored or allowed at least 80 points in five of their last six games, and 75 or more in nine consecutive games.

I like the fact that this will be the first meeting of the season between these teams, and unfamiliarity favors offense and OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UC-San Diego/Cal Poly OVER 160.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds in the entire country.  They also rank 265th in adjusted defense and 66th in effective FG percentage offense.

UC-San Diego is one of the best teams in the country that not too many know about.  The Tritons are 48th in adjusted offense and 34th in effective FG percentage.  They also like to get shots up quickly ranking 112th in average length of offensive possession at 17.1 seconds.

UC-San Diego beat Cal Poly 95-68 for 163 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I think they push for close to 100 points again in the rematch.  And Cal Poly should shoot better than the 41.1% they did in the first meeting, and the Mustangs will control the tempo at home.  They should also get more than 8 FT attempts like they did in that first meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon PK

The Oregon Ducks are undervalued right now after a five-game losing streak with four of those losses on the road.  They have since rebounded with home wins over Northwestern by 6 and Rutgers by 18.  Now the Ducks take another step down in class here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I like the spot for Oregon because they will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so the travel to Iowa isn't that big of a factor.  Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes return home after a two-game road trip on the East Coast against Rutgers and Maryland.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days with a lot of travel involved.

Iowa is 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. Injuries are starting to mount up.  They were already without F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  Now G Drew Thelwell (10.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury after missing their last game.

That was a 26-point road loss at Maryland as the Hawkeyes gave up 101 points to the Terrapins.  They are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference ranking 146th in adjusted defense.  Oregon is nearly 100 spots better at 48th in adjusted defense.

The Hawkeyes clearly don't have the same kind of home-court advantage they have in past seasons because fans just aren't supporting this team, and they know Fran McCaffrey is likely out the door after this season.  

The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming against Penn State by a single point.  That's a Penn State team that has lost 11 of its last 12 games.  The Hawkeyes were also upset as 8-point home favorites by Minnesota.  Bet Oregon Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/South Dakota OVER 175

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-4 OVER in all games this season, including 10-1 OVER in all home games.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in the country in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense.

St. Thomas is one of the best offensive teams in the country.  The Tommies rank 47th in adjusted offense and 266th in adjusted defense.  They rank 2nd in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage.

In their first meeting this season, the Tommies beat the Coyotes 119-104 for 223 combined points.  So we have nearly 50 points to work with in the rematch.  I don't expect both teams to top 100 points again, but this should still sail over this 175-point total as the books just can't set these South Dakota totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Illinois State OVER 144

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams not only in the MVC, but in the entire country.  Bradley ranks 4th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the nation.  Illinois State ranks 7th in effective FG percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage.

Both teams are sub-par defensively, especially the Redbirds, who rank 260th in adjusted defense.  Bradley won the first meeting 61-57 for just 118 combined points earlier this season.  But neither team shot up to par, especially Illinois State.

The Redbirds shot just 31% from the field and 29% from 3-point range, while the Braves shot just 42% from the field and 22% from 3-point range.  I'm expecting big positive shooting regression from both teams in the rematch.

Illinois State is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of its last six contests.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Indiana State OVER 148.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 18-7 OVER in all games this season.  They have combined with their opponents to top this 148.5-point total in 21 of their 27 games this season.

The Sycamores rank 11th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  They play a Evansville team that has really shown signs of life offensively here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Purple Aces have scored at least 74 points in six of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  I expect both teams to get to 74-plus in this one as we cash this total with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have quietly gone 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference.

After having an entire week off, the Badgers returned to action on Saturday with one of their best performances of the season in a 94-84 road win at Purdue as 6-point underdogs.  They should still be very fresh for this game against Illinois playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.

While this would usually be a letdown spot off a huge road win, it won't be for the Badgers.  They will have no problem shifting their focus to getting revenge on Illinois, who they lost 86-80 on the road to way back on December 10th.  They went on their 12-1 run directly after that defeat.

Illinois is not playing well right now.  The Fighting Illini are 5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes home losses to USC by 10, Maryland by 21 and Michigan State by 14.  They are so inconsistent because they shoot a ton of 3-pointers and do so at just a 31.1% clip, which ranks 308th in the country.

This will be the 6th game in 17 days for the Fighting Illini, who are the much more tired team right now.  I think that fatigue showed in their 79-65 home loss to Michigan State over the weekend, and it won't get any easier tonight against a Badgers team motivated for revenge.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Butler/Xavier OVER 152

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Big East action tonight when the Xavier Musketeers host the Butler Bulldogs.  And this will be the first meeting of the season between these teams, so they aren't familiar with one another, which benefits offense over defense.

Butler is 9-0-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in nine of those 10 games.  The Bulldogs have scored at least 78 points in six of their last seven games as they are thriving offensively right now.  The Bulldogs rank 41st in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense this season.

Xavier is a perfect 7-0 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Musketeers and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 74 points in five of their last six games.  They rank 109th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 55th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +18

The Colorado Buffaloes are undervalued due to having the worst record in the Big 12 at 1-14.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate.  They have just one conference loss by more than 16 points all season, so 13 of those 14 losses have come by less than this margin.

The Buffaloes are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 10 as 14-point home dogs to Houston and by 12 as 17-point road dogs at Kansas.  They did pick up their first conference win over the season over the weekend in a 76-63 home win over UCF.

While that would normally set a team like Colorado up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case here.  The Buffaloes are playing with double-revenge after losing twice already to Iowa State this season.  They lost in Maui and they lost by 10 at home to the Cyclones in their Big 12 opener.  This is the rare time that teams get a chance to face each other for a 3rd time in the regular season.

Iowa State will not be motivated to beat Colorado a 3rd time.  Instead, the Cyclones will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against first place Houston on Saturday.  Iowa State has just one win by more than 15 points in its last seven games.  The Cyclones are overvalued right now, and I question their motivation tonight.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

20* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia +14

The Virginia Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won by 16 as 13-point dogs at Pitt, by 14 as 2.5-point home favorites over Georgia Tech and by 3 as 2-point road dogs at Virginia Tech.

The Cavaliers have been playing well for a while now going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall not once losing by more than 15 points.  They are making a case for interim head coach Ron Sanchez to get the full-time gig moving forward as they are playing very hard for him.

The spot really favors the Cavaliers tonight.  Both teams played on Saturday, so both will have one day to get ready for this game.  However, Virginia had a week off prior to Saturday's game, so they will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet Virginia Monday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rutgers/Oregon OVER 153

Rutgers has completed flipped how it plays this season thanks to having two lottery picks in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who combine to average nearly 40 points per game.  The Scarlet Knights rank 91st in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense but just 101st in adjusted defense as defense seems to be optional for them this season.

We've seen that play out in recent games with Rutgers and its opponents combining for at least 151 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  So this total of 153 is pretty low for a game involving the Scarlet Knights right now.

Oregon also profiles as an OVER team this season.  The Ducks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 51st in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-1 in Ducks last seven games overall, including 4-0 in their last four with 156 or more combined points in each of their last three games.

Rutgers is averaging 78.5 points per game in road/neutral games this season and Oregon is putting up 78.7 points per game at home.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Florida Atlantic/Temple OVER 160

The Temple Owls are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 14-0 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in all 14 games.  They rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 231st in adjusted defense.

Now Temple faces a Florida Atlantic team that also profiles as an OVER team.  FAU ranks 55th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 67th in adjusted offense and 58th in effective FG percentage.

FAU 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall and rolling offensively.  The Owls scored 94, 94, 79 and 87 points in their last four games.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +15

Many thought Florida would suffer a letdown the game after upsetting Auburn as 11-point road underdogs.  They showed up and took care of business in a 81-68 road win as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State.  This is the spot the letdown occurs Saturday at home against an unranked South Carolina team.

The Gamecocks are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall.  One of those losses came 70-69 at home to Florida as 11-point dogs.  So they already proved they could play with the Gators, who won't be all that motivated to beat this team again, especially after playing the cream of the crop in the SEC prior.

South Carolina has been much more competitive than that 0-11 SU record would indicate.  They are actually 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with a 3-point loss to Auburn, that 1-point loss to Florida, a 5-point loss to Mississippi State, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and a 4-point loss to Ole Miss.  So they have proven they can play with the class of the SEC.

Another reason I'm fading Florida is injuries to two of its key players.  F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is out, while G Alijah Martin (15.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised if he sits considering it's South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are fully healthy and hungry for revenge heading into this one.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Thomas -7.5

I love the spot for St. Thomas Saturday.  The Tommies want revenge from a 89-78 road loss at Omaha in their first meeting this season.  That was such a favorable spot for Omaha with over a week off to prepare.

Now it's the Tommies in the advantageous rest spot.  They have had the last week off while Omaha only has one day in between games after a 98-85 road loss at South Dakota State on Thursday.  They also lost their previous road game outright as favorites at South Dakota.

St. Thomas may have the best home-court advantage in the conference.  The Tommies are 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 18.8 points per game.  They have won each of their last four home games by 12 points or more.

With first place in the Summit League on the line and a huge rest advantage, I'm expecting one of the best efforts of the season from the Tommies.  The tired Mavericks won't be able to keep up playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Bet St. Thomas Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal Poly/CS-Northridge OVER 166.5

CS-Northridge beat Cal Poly 102-91 for 193 combined points in an absolute shootout in their first meeting this season on December 7th.  And it's not like either team shot the lights out especially Poly, which shot 41.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.

So we have about 27 points to spare in the rematch to cash this OVER 166.5.  And it will be another up-tempo game between two teams that rank in the Top 10 in the country in pace.  Poly ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo while Northridge ranks 8th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss wants revenge from a 84-81 (OT) loss at Mississippi State on January 18th.  Now the Rebels get the rival Bulldogs at home this time around where they are 10-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and Texas A&M by a single point.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country, and I trust him to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  While the Rebels are surging right now going 4-1 SU in their last five games with their only loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are faltering, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado PK

Colorado is 0-13 in Big 12 play this season.  It's safe to say the Buffaloes are highly motivated to get that first conference victory, and this looks like their best chance to get it Saturday.  I expect the Buffaloes to take full advantage.

Colorado hung with arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and Kansas losing by 10 to the Cougars and by 12 at Kansas in its last two games.  That just shows the potential of this team.  The Buffaloes also have one of the better home-court advantages in the country.

The Buffaloes want revenge from a 75-74 road loss to UCF in their first meeting this season.  The Knights have let go of the rope in recent weeks, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes double-digit home losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State and a 15-point road loss at Baylor.  

They are 1-4 SU in their last five Big 12 road games, and they have allowed at least 83 points in all six Big 12 road games this season.  The Knights are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  This is a tough travel spot for them having to go to altitude in Colorado.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois State/Indiana State OVER 156

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Sycamores rank 10th in adjusted tempo and 257th in adjusted defense.

Illinois State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Redbirds rank 71st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 15th in 3-point percentage.  They are terrible defensively as well ranking 252nd in adjusted defense.

Illinois State beat Indiana State 85-81 for 166 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  This game should follow suit with the Sycamores controlling the tempo playing at home, and both offenses getting whatever they want.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason -3

George Mason is 20-5 this season and one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country as well as they are 14-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

What makes the Patriots such a trustworthy team is the way they get after it defensively.  The Patriots rank 13rd in adjusted defense.  They are tough to come back on once you get down because they play slow and make you work for everything you get on offense.

That's bad news for St. Joe's, which ranks 128th in adjusted offense and 53rd in adjusted defense.  What really stands out is just how poor the Hawks have been on the road this season.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Atlantic 10 road games including upset losses to Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago as well as a 16-point loss at Saint Louis.

All 14 of George Mason's home wins this season have come by at least 3 points, and 13 of them by more than 3 points.  I expect the Patriots to be fully focused knowing they get a week off after this game.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wright State/Milwaukee OVER 154

Wright State and Milwaukee consistently play in shootouts when they get together.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 157 or more combined points in all five meetings, none of which went to overtime.

Four of the five meetings have seen 174 or more combined points an an average of 172 combined points, which is 18 points more than this posted total of 154.  Milwaukee won 95-79 in their first meeting this season on January 22nd for 174 combined points.

Milwaukee will control the tempo playing at home.  The Panthers rank 75th in adjusted tempo and are scoring 83.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting at home this season.  Wright State is scoring 77.0 points per game on 48.8% shooting this season.  The Raiders rank 128th in adjusted offense, 37th in effective FG percentage and 17th in 3-point percentage while playing faster than average.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* WCC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Portland OVER 143.5

Because Oregon State plays at a slow tempo, their totals are always adjusted down.  But what the betting market fails to realize is the Beavers are uber efficient on offense, which is what makes them such a dead nuts OVER team.

Indeed, Oregon State is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in 12 of those 14 games.  That includes 146 or more combined points in eight of their last nine games coming in.  Oregon State ranks 50th in adjusted offense and 117th in adjusted defense.  The Beavers are 40th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.

Portland ranks 123rd in adjusted tempo and 334th in adjusted defense.  The Pilots will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The OVER is 7-2 in Portland's last nine games overall with 147 or more combined points in each of their last eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Oregon State beat Portland 89-79 at home for 168 combined points in their first meeting this season on December 30th.  So we have nearly 25 points to work with here in the rematch with this total of 143.5 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Maryland/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska ML -117

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 28-3 SU at home over the last two seasons.  They are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Maryland tonight.

The Huskers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Illinois 80-74 as 4.5-point home dogs, Ohio State 79-71 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oregon 77-71 as 6.5-point road dogs and Washington 86-72 as 2-point road favorites.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from a 69-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 19th.  Maryland has always had huge home/road splits and that is no different this season.  

The Terrapins are 2-4 SU in true road games with one of their wins coming by a single point at Indiana.  They have road losses to Washington, Oregon, Northwestern and Ohio State.  Bet Nebraska on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

I've been fading the Iowa Hawkeyes a lot lately especially since they lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury a few games ago.  They really miss his offense and defense both.

The Hawkeyes are 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over Penn State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season while getting outscored by 16.8 points per game.  They have lost their last four road games all by double-digits.

Rutgers recently got Dylan Harper back from injury and he looks rejuvenated.  He had 28 points to lead them to an upset win over Illinois and 20 points in a hard-fought road loss to Maryland.  With him and Ace Bailey averaging nearly 40 points per game combined, this team could be dangerous moving forward.

This is a big step down in class for the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to take advantage.  Iowa ranks 154th in adjusted defense, far and away the worst defensive team in the Big Ten this season.  The Scarlet Knights should hang a big number on them in a blowout victory.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  While that would normally set them up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case with No. 13 Arizona coming to town.  Sitting at 12-11 on the season, the Wildcats need every signature win they can get at this point if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

If anything it's a letdown spot for Arizona, which is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and coming off a huge 82-73 home win over Texas Tech.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against Houston, so this is a clear sandwich spot.  I think this is the perfect time to 'sell high' on Arizona tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9.5

Vanderbilt is 12-1 SU at home this season.  The Commodores have wins over the likes of Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee at home this season.  They should be able to hang with Auburn, and asking the Tigers to win this game on the road by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

I know Auburn will be motivated to bounce back from a 90-81 home loss to Florida as 11-point favorites, but they also have their biggest rival in Alabama on deck Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think we get their best effort here, and it will take their best effort to even come close to covering this inflated number.  

I know we'll get the best effort from the Commodores with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Colorado +15

The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now.  That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers).  The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge.

After falling 82-81 as 9.5-point home favorites to Texas Tech, the Cougars had a lackluster 72-63 home win over Oklahoma State as 21-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and win by more than 15 points against Colorado Saturday without Sharp.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS in Big 12 play.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate, and there's no question they are treating this as their 'National Championship' game with Top 5 Houston coming to town.

Just two of the 11 conference losses have come by more than 15 points, and those were losses by 16 and 20 points.  The Buffaloes have been very competitive at home with losses by 2, 6, 8 and 10 points.  They will stay within this inflated number today.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Kansas/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

Now the Wildcats have their sights set on revenge from that 10-point road loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season.  Kansas is 2-4 SU in its six true road games this season losing by 13 at Creighton, by 9 at Missouri, by 17 at Iowa State and by 11 at Baylor.  The two wins came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in UCF and TCU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -2

I love the spot for Vanderbilt today.  The Commodores are pissed off following two consecutive road losses to Oklahoma and Florida.  But now they return home where they are 11-1 SU at home this season with wins over the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky int heir last two home games.

This is actually a step down in class for the Commodores against a Texas team that I'm just not that big of a fan of.  The Longhorns are just 2-3 SU on the road in SEC play with their last win coming recently against a LSU team that looks like they have quit.  They lost by 20 at Texas A&M, by 24 at Florida and by 3 at Ole Miss.  The Commodores should be favored by more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.