Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-27-10 | Villanova +5.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ESPN Game of the Year on Villanova +5.5
We'll take Villanova and the points today as its big game experience and experienced back court, led by Scottie Reynolds, gives the Wildcats the edge. Nova has won 3 straight in this series and 5 of the last 6. From a point spread perspective, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Syracuse and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Nova has the type of guards that can really cause problems for the Cuse zone with their penetration and ability to knocks down threes. And that's why we've seen the Wildcats enjoy success against the Orange. With first place on the line, I just can't see Villanova getting beat by more than 5 points. And frankly, I can't see it getting beat period. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll take them in that role here today. |
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02-27-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers -1.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Pacers -1.5
With Joakim Noah doubtful this evening, and with Indiana out for revenge after losing at Chicago this week, we'll take the rested Pacers in this revenge spot against a Bulls team that just played an emotionally and physically draining OT game last night. Right away, you have to like the Pacers when you consider that plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 64-32 ATS since 1996. The last time Indiana played the same team twice in the same week, it lost the first game (by 15 at Toronto) but then responded with a 15-point win in the second game. We'll lay the points here as I like Indiana by double digits. |
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02-26-10 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pistons +10
Tough spot for the Nuggets playing back-to-back after such an uptempo game last night. The Nuggets shot out of their mind last night, but those shots will have a tougher time falling with tired legs. This is a similar spot to last week for the Nuggets. After beating the Cavs, the Nuggets lost the next night by double digits to Washington as they were looking ahead to a game with Boston. Tonight, I think they get caught looking ahead to a showdown with the Lakers. Detroit has fared well against the Nuggets. In fact, it has won 7 straight and 21 of the last 25. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 13-3 ATS in the last 16. The Nuggets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero day's rest, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Detroit keeps this one within the number tonight. |
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02-25-10 | Oregon State +5 v. UCLA | Top | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Oregon State +5
UCLA doesn't deserve to be laying this many points against anyone in the Pac-10 this season when you consider that it is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Beavers have proven to be one of the best teams to back in college basketball as they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Beavers are an impressive 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog period. Oregon State should be particularly hungry tonight coming off a double digit home loss to Stanford and having lost to UCLA by 10 points earlier this season. UCLA is coming off an absolutely embarrassing defeat of nearly 30 points at Washington, a place where the Beavers only lost by 6 points by the way. That loss will have the Bruins motivated, but this UCLA team just doesn't have the fire power to put away an equally motivated squad tonight. For all the beatings the Bruins have handed the Beavers in recent years, I expect to see Oregon State playing with some desire in this one. Plus Reeves Nelson and Brendan Lane are both listed as doubtful for UCLA. I like the Beavers in this spot catching points regardless, but it will be a huge blow if Nelson and his 11.0 ppg can't go. Take the points. |
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02-24-10 | Xavier v. St Louis +5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Underdog of the Month on St. Louis +5
The Billikens are not getting the respect they deserve at home tonight. This team is 9-3 SU & ATS in A-10 play and 14-1 SU at home and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. The Billikens have defeated Richmond (the conference leader), Dayton and Rhode Island outright in the home dog role in 2010, and I anticipate another upset here. Xavier, which is tied for 2nd in the A-10, has a date with Richmond up next, so St. Louis likely won't get the Musketeers' entire focus tonight, although it should. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread as the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Billikens are also an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. St. Louis is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points. |
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02-23-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 204 | Top | 104-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here. |
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02-22-10 | Indiana Pacers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 82-91 | Push | 0 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9
I know Indiana has really struggled on the road this season, but it is coming off a nice confidence boosting win over the Rockets. Furthermore, this will be the Mavs 5th game in the last 7 days, making this a tough spot for a veteran team. Also, I have to think that Dallas will be much more concerned about Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers. With all this in mind, I really can't justify laying this many points when you consider that Dallas is just 5-20 ATS as a home favorite this season, only winning in these spots by an average of 1.5 points. Lastly, plays against home favorites, extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Take the points. |
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02-21-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 | Top | 109-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +6.5
The Thunder are coming off a taxing overtime win in New York last night so they are going to have a difficult time covering this number on the road tonight, especially against a division rival that has played them so tough. Minnesota has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The only exception was a 7-point loss. The T-Wolves normally always get up for division games so it comes as no surprise that they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Plus, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. While the Thunder are a much improved team this season, I think it's still a lot to be asking this team to lay this many points very often, especially in today's spot. In fact, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. I think it is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. We'll take the points. |
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02-20-10 | California -6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 64-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Blowout of the Year on Cal -6.5
After an embarrassing double digit loss at Oregon State, Cal has seen its lead in the Pac-10 shrink to a half game. The Bears have already defeated Oregon by 32 points this season and they won by 18 the last time they visited the Ducks. Cal is the much more talented side and it should be motivated enough to lay the wood in this spot. The Golden Bears are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at -7 at some books). The Ducks are a terrible 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at +7 at some books). Oregon is 5-16 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by 13.8 points on average. With all the factors that have presented themselves, Cal seems primed for a blowout win. |
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02-19-10 | Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Mavs +6.5
Dallas has had tremendous success against the Magic, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings with that lone loss coming by just 2 points. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the underdog in terms of the point spread as the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Magic are a team that have been very prone to losing in look ahead spots. In fact, they lost to Memphis on January 25th as a favorite with Boston up next, and they lost to Washington as a favorite on February 5th with Boston on deck again. With LeBron and the Cavs on deck, it will likely be difficult for the Magic to give complete focus to the task at hand. Also, plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 27-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Mavs tonight. |
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02-18-10 | Denver Nuggets +7 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Year on Nuggets +7
Denver believes it can win a championship and it has certainly showed that to be a possibility in its biggest games this season. The Nuggets have won both of their meetings with the Lakers and they won their only meeting with the Cavs in a game Carmelo Anthony did not play in. Now, with coach George Karl announcing that he has cancer, I expect his boys to play even harder. I have to think that the Nuggets will be the more focused team tonight as the Cavs try to adjust to life with Antawn Jamison and life without Zydrunas Ilgauskas. It is not clear whether Jamison will play, but it is certain that Big Z won't be in the lineup and the Cavs will miss him. We saw how bad the Mavs looked in their first game after making a big trade, only scoring 86 points against the Thunder. Chemistry was an issue and I expect it to be an issue for Cleveland here. Plus, the Cavs are still expected to be without Mo Williams so quality depth is also an issue. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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02-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number. |
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02-16-10 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* ESPN Super Tuesday Total of the Month on Kentucky/Mississippi State UNDER 142.5
In Kentucky's last 3 road games, we have seen total scores of 139, 130 and 136. Plus, each of the last two meetings in this series have easily come in Under this number with total scores of 133 and 123. While Kentucky can be prone to turnovers when put under pressure, teams know that they don't want to get into a track meet with the Wildcats. Expect Mississippi State to take a cue from S. Carolina, slowing down the pace, to give the Wildcats all they want and more, and the Under should be the result. The Under is 8-2 in the Wildcats' last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Under is also 7-2 in the Bulldogs' last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 11-4-1 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 period. With as solid as both of these teams are defensively, the Under gets the call tonight. |
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02-13-10 | Texas A&M v. Texas Tech -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech -1.5
This game is all about payback for Texas Tech after getting crushed by 15 at A&M. The Red Raiders are a superb home team at 13-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season so I'll back them laying less than a deuce on their home floor here today. First off, the home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings so we see how important home court has been in this series. In addition, the Red Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. It's also nice to know that Texas Tech is 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. We'll take Tech as our Big 12 Top Play. |
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02-11-10 | Mississippi +4.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Month (ESPN) on Ole Miss +4.5
Ole Miss lost the season's first meeting at home, but I expect the Rebels to pay back their struggling rivals, who have lost 4 of 5, tonight. The Rebels have been sensational against the spread when playing away from home at 8-2 in that role this season. In fact, Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. But what's even more impressive is that the Rebs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a loss versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Ole Miss and the points. |
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02-10-10 | New Mexico +5.5 v. UNLV | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Year on New Mexico +5.5
New Mexico is catching too many points here when you consider the motivation it has to avenge an earlier season loss to UNLV. This matchup has been all about the underdog from a betting perspective as the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Lobos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and the Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. New Mexico is also 7-2 when playing away from home this season. In addition, a win by the Lobos would take them past UNLV in the MWC standings. They would then be all alone at the top in the win column and only tied with BYU in the loss column. That's further motivation for Steve Alford's boys tonight. And we certainly can't overlook the weapon that is coach Alford here as his teams are 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a same season in all games he has coached since 1997, winning in these spots by an average score of 68.7 to 67.9. In other words, he has made the proper adjustments. I'll take the points tonight as New Mexico has an excellent shot at winning this one outright. |
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02-06-10 | Clemson +1.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB False Favorite of the Month on Clemson +1.5
With or without Demontez Stitt, who is listed as questionable for this game, and who the Tigers did not need to defeat Maryland in their last game, I expect Clemson to hand VA Tech its first home defeat of the season today. The Tigers have not played since January 31 so they should be very well prepared and ready to go. I strongly feel that VA Tech has overachieved to this point. Clemson had played the much more difficult ACC slate and that will show out on the floor today. The key to VA Tech's home success is its defense, but the Hokies allowed a struggling UNC squad to hang 70 points on them last game, and we all know how badly the Tigers crushed the Heels. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Really think the books have the wrong team favored here. Take Clemson. |
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02-05-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 202.5 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under. |
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02-04-10 | Georgia Tech v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 67-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Duke -12.5
Duke is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and 8-3 ATS in all home lined games. The Blue Devils could not be more motivated tonight as they look to pay Georgia Tech back for an earlier season loss, and as they look to bounce back from a loss to Georgetown last game. Duke is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against the Yellow Jackets, winning these games by an average of 17.2 points. Also, plays on home teams as a favorite or pick off an upset loss by 10 points or more, against an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Duke is also 7-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season, winning these games by an average score of 70.6 to 55.6. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and they get the call tonight. |
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02-02-10 | Golden State Warriors +7 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 97-119 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Public Massacre of the Year on Warriors +7
The Warriors may only by 4-20 on the road this season, but they are 13-10-1 ATS in those games, and they have been downright deadly lately. In fact, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It's also hard to justify laying this many points with the Rockets when you consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Rockets have struggled to defend the uptempo Warriors in recent meetings, allowing Golden State to score 107 or more points in each of the last 3 meetings while not winning by more than 4 points. Plus, I love the fact that the public is all over Houston here, reaffirming that we have the smart money side. Take the points. |
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01-31-10 | Minnesota +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 63-85 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Month (CBS) on Minnesota +7
The Gophers have only lost by more than 7 points one time this season so they should be able to keep this one within the number here today. They already have an 11-point win over Ohio State this season and have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Buckeyes. A big key here is Minnesota's defensive pressure as it has really rattled the Buckeyes in these recent contests. In fact, Ohio State is 0-6 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 61.2 to 65.7. Plus, we couldn't picks a better day of the week to fade the Bucks as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Take Minnesota and the points. |
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01-30-10 | Memphis v. SMU +8 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Year on SMU +8
First of all Memphis isn't near the team it has been the past couple seasons, which gives us all the more reason to go against the Tigers here. Memphis will undoubtedly be looking ahead to UAB and SMU will be looking to pay the Tigers back for handing it an embarrassing 90-47 loss last season. SMU is greatly improved. It has won 3 straight heading into this contest and played UAB to a 1-point game and UTEP to a 4-point game. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 6-0 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA. Take the points. |
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01-28-10 | USC v. Oregon State +4 | Top | 45-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Oregon State +4
Really like Oregon State in the home dog role tonight. First off, the Beavers have been one of the best covering teams in the country at 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and they have been extremely dangerous as a dog at 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. In fact, OSU is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 62.0 to 59.7. Also, USC is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 62.9 to 63.3. We'll take the Beavers and the points tonight. |
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01-28-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 190 | Top | 94-96 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
This matchup has been an Unders machine with the last 6 meetings playing to the Under and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Orlando coming in Under the number. I fully expect this trend to continue this evening as these two Eastern Conference powers engage in a defensive battle. The Magic are struggling from the field, and as a result, we've seen them play to the Under in 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. Boston has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 as well. One thing we can usually count on is Boston bringing the "D" against top notch competition, especially now that K.G. is back. In fact, Boston is 11-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing an average of 177.8 points scored in the games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Magic's last 5 games playing on 2 day's rest, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under. |
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01-27-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 96-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Thunder -5.5
The Thunder are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA so I expect them to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column tonight after back-to-back defeats. In fact, OKC is 16-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-1 ATS off a road loss this season. This is also a great spot for the Thunder as they have had 3 days to rest while the Bulls are playing their 4th road game in 6 days. The Thunder are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more day's rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It's been a good road trip for the Bulls, but expect them to fall SU & ATS tonight against the much fresher Thunder. |
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01-26-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +7 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* 43-0 ATS Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +7
It's hard not to like the Bucks catching this many points in Dallas tonight when you consider that the Mavs are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. And that's not all. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. And there's more. Dallas is 0-7 ATS this season at home when facing up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game. All together, we have a 43-0 ATS Angle in our favor tonight. In addition, it is also worth mentioning that the Bucks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Dallas and the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the points tonight. |
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01-23-10 | Ohio State +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year (CBS) on Ohio State +6.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Buckeyes are playing very well and I expect their solid play to continue this afternoon. Ohio State has plenty of motivation to get the job done here when you consider that it was crushed by 28 points at home by WVU last season. The Buckeyes return all 5 starters from that team and they will be looking to return the favor. The Mountaineers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Buckeyes. |
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01-22-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 185 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator of the Month on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
When Kevin Garnett went down with an injury, the Boston Celtics lost their identity as a shutdown defensive team. Well guess who's back? Garnett returns to the lineup tonight and I expect his presence to provide the C's with a big lift no matter how much he plays. Portland has been a strong defensive team on the road, only allowing 93.2 ppg, but it hasn't been able to do much on the offensive end, scoring only 93.8 ppg. With Brandon Roy not in the lineup tonight, I expect the Blazers to struggle offensively against a Celtics squad primed and ready to dig in on the defensive end. The Blazers are really hurting on the interior with both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla's absences leaving them paper thin. Expect Boston to really slow this game down to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside tonight. Portland is going to want to make this game a track meet and I just don't see the Celtics letting the Blazers control the tempo on their home floor. Each of these two teams have played to the Under in 3 straight and the last two head-to-head matchups have averaged only 174 points. We'll take the Under. |
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01-20-10 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 191 | Top | 65-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Bobcats UNDER 191
This system can't be ignored tonight: Plays Under on any team, Miami in this case, after a blowout win by 30 or more points against an opponent which led in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 14-1 the last 3 seasons (already 2-0 this season). Charlotte is the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing only 92.9 ppg, and that number goes down to 91 ppg when playing at home. Both of these teams have played some high scoring games of late, but that is because they were playing teams that prefer to play uptempo basketball. These two teams prefer to play in the half court. Bet the Under. |
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01-19-10 | Tennessee v. Alabama +2.5 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* SEC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Alabama +2.5
Tough spot for the Vols tonight as they go out on the road for the first time this month to take on a Bama team that couldn't be hungrier after back-to-back losses. I know Tennessee has been playing hard in the wake of the loss of Tyler Smith, but it is these tough road contests where they will dearly miss his ability to create for himself and his teammates. It's also going to be extremely difficult for Tennessee to match the intensity of Alabama tonight after such an emotionally and physically draining overtime win over Ole Miss. A couple stats really stand out here. First off, Bama is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home underdog of 3 points or less, winning outright in these spots by an average score of 75.5 to 72.5. Secondly, Tennessee is on a 3-12 ATS skid when playing their 3rd game in a week. And there's more: The Volunteers are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Alabama. The Vols are also 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Tide. |
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01-18-10 | Orlando Magic +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic +6.5
The Orlando Magic have fallen flat on their faces the last 2 games with disappointing performances against Denver and Portland, but now they've had 2 days to rest and prepare for the team that beat them in last year's Finals. Rest has been a very important betting angle for the Magic when playing out on the road. In fact, the Magic are 14-3 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.3 to 96.4. These team has also responded rather well to being embarrassed. Orlando is 16-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 101.6 to 93.5. We also have to figure in that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against the Lakers in Los Angeles and the Underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We'll take the points. |
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01-16-10 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN) on UNC -7
Off an embarrassing loss to Clemson, look for the Tar Heels to cruise at home today where they are 11-0 on the season. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Plus, the Tar Heels are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points period. UNC is also 6-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Tech has struggled on the road, losing its last 2 away from home. We'll take the Heels in this highly motivated spot. |
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01-15-10 | Orlando Magic -4.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 87-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic -4.5
With all the injury problems of the Blazers, I just can't see them getting the job done against a hungry Magic team tonight. The Blazers are really hurting inside right now with Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden out. The news gets worse as Brandon Roy is listed as doubtful for tonight's contest. Orlando was just embarrassed in Denver in its last game, and I expect that loss to provide more than enough motivation for the Magic to get the job tonight. Expect a big game from Howard since the Blazers are missing their key frontline guys. Here's the clincher: plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 33-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. For the record this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Orlando. |
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01-13-10 | Pittsburgh v. Connecticut -6 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on UConn -6
Pitt had UConn's number last season, sweeping the season series, but I expect payback from UConn tonight. Both teams have lost key contributors, but Pitt clearly lost more. UConn will be further motivated tonight by a loss at Georgetown in its last game. UConn led by as many as 19 in the first half in that game and took a 15-point lead to the locker room, but the Hoyas rallied for a 72-69 victory that left Jim Calhoun fuming mad. UConn is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is winning by 13.1 ppg. The Huskies are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Expect UConn to roll in this highly motivated spot. |
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01-12-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Grizzlies -5
Sunday the Clippers came through for us for an easy win over Miami. That win came at home where they have won 6 in a row. Expect a different story on the road tonight where they have lost 4 straight. The Clippers are just 12-27 ATS in their last 39 road games, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies have won 5 straight at home and they will be extremely motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from a 2-point loss at Charlotte. The Clippers have visited Memphis once already this season and the Grizzlies handed them a 15-point loss as a 5.5-point favorite and I expect a similar result tonight. The Grizzlies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Grizz. |
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01-08-10 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Hawks -3
Atlanta gets up for the C's unlike any other team. They already defeated Boston by 11 points in the Garden, and I like them to come through again here against a Celtics squad playing without Kevin Garnett. Boston has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games, needing OT to win at Miami Wednesday, and the Heat aren't as good as the Hawks in my book. Atlanta is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS at home this season and I think home court will treat them well again tonight. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Celtics are only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta desperately wants to assert itself as just as much of a contender as Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston in the East. They take another step toward doing so tonight. |
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01-06-10 | Memphis v. Syracuse UNDER 145.5 | Top | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Total of the Month (ESPN 2) on Memphis/Syracuse UNDER 145.5
We saw just 137 total points in last year's matchup as Memphis really struggled with the Syracuse matchup zone. I expect those struggles to continue as Memphis does not shoot the 3 very well, just 33.3% on the road. Plus, Memphis is 17-4 Under off a home win over the last 2 seasons, combining with its opponent for only 131.7 points in these games. The reason for this is Memphis usually scores a lot or points at home and that elevates the line in its next game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in the Orange's last 7 vs. Conference USA. Bet the Under. |
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01-04-10 | Atlanta Hawks -109 v. Miami Heat | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks pk
After 3 straight losses, expect a rested Hawks team that has had Miami's number to get back in the win column tonight. The Heat have not been able to match up well with the athletic ability of the Hawks in recent years. In fact, Atlanta has won 4 of the last 5 meetings by at least 10 points. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Hawks are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 Monday games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. We'll take Atlanta tonight. |
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12-25-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | Top | 102-87 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
5* Christmas Day NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -5
While the Cavs would love to make a statement with a win here, I just don't see it happening. This will be Cleveland's 4th road games in 6 days with Wednesday's overtime game with Sacramento really taking a toll. The Lakers haven't played since the 22nd so they will have the big edge in terms of fresh legs. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, and I can make a strong argument that they are now better with Ron Artest, while Cleveland seems to have taken a small step back. I won't be surprised if Shaq has a good game as he will be motivated to play his former team, but at the end of the day, the Lakers just have too much fire power with Gasol, Bryant, Bynum, Odom, and Artest. Cleveland had tons of trouble matching up with LA's size defensively last season and we saw the trouble it had again in the playoffs when facing the Magic. Size and length will prevail again here. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. This line is soft. Take LA. |
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12-23-09 | Utah Jazz v. Miami Heat | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Heat pk
I'll back a rested Heat team at home that has had Utah's number tonight, especially since the Jazz have played a lot of games in few days. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and I expect them to bounce back here against a Jazz team that is just 5-8 on the road. Take Miami. |
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12-22-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder +10 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 108-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +10
The Thunder are an incredible 10-0 ATS after a game where they did not cover the number this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.7 to 93.7 in these spots. The Thunder will be lacking no motivation tonight after falling to the Lakers 85-101 exactly 1 month ago. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take the points tonight. |
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12-19-09 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Bobcats -3 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -3
Tough spot for the Jazz playing back-to-back against a Bobcats team that is well rested and has been strong at home all season. The Cats are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season while Utah is just 4-7 SU & ATS on the road. Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Jazz the last 2 seasons, winning those games by 7 points on average. Plus, Utah is just 8-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 101.2 to 107.5, and just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 back-to-backs. The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lastly, the Jazz are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the number. |
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12-18-09 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -5
Detroit is really banged up with Tayshaun Prince out and Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon listed as questionable. Even Rodney Stuckey is not at 100% percent. Even if Hamilton and Gordon are able to go, they won't be healthy enough to drop a big night on the Thunder. Detroit is just 3-10 on the road this season and it has lost back-to-back road games by 11 and 8 points. The Thunder have lost 3 in a row so they will be very hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's not that the Thunder are playing bad, they have just come up against superior teams (Cleveland, Denver, Dallas) and they will be excited to go up against an opponent they believe they are better than tonight. The Thunder have won the last two meetings in this series by 10 and 8 points and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Pistons. It has also been a money play to take the Thunder after a game where they failed to cover the spread as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in this role this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 93.2 in these games. The Thunder are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder. |
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12-12-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -8.5
The public is on the Suns here and that is right where the books want them. Phoenix is in a tough spot, having just played a hard-fought game against the Magic last night. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are back home where they are 9-1 this season (winning by 13.9 ppg) and with a day's rest in their favor. Fatigue will play a major factor in this one as the Suns are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. This has been a matchup dominated by the home team as the home squad is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. In fact, the Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver. Since the beginning of last season, Denver is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning in these spots by 15.6 points on average. We'll take the Nuggets at home tonight. |
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12-11-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 187.5 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 187.5
The public is all over the over, driving this line up from its opening mark of 184. Right away, you have to like the Under here when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games, are 24-4 the last 5 seasons (85.7%). You also have to like the fact that Portland is 14-3 Under in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 7-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I expect a very physical, defensive battle resulting in the Under coming through for us tonight. |
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12-10-09 | Orlando Magic -2 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
The Jazz have historically been a good home team, and they are 9-3 at home this season, but this is a really tough spot for them tonight. The Jazz played the Lakers tough for 3 quarters last night and then they were absolutely crushed in the 4th. While they would like to bounce back tonight, I don't think they'll have the legs to get it done against a Magic team that is rested and that has been one of the best road teams in the league the past couple seasons. In fact, the Magic are 10-2 on the road this season. Plus, the Jazz get the Lakers again in two nights so I expect them to be much more concerned with having their revenge in that game than this one. Utah is just 7-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season, losing in these spots by 7 points on average. The Jazz are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. With their banged up roster, I just don't see Utah having the depth to get it done tonight. The Magic are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. Take the Magic. |
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12-08-09 | Xavier v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Motivational Mismatch Game of the Year on K-State -5
The last time these two teams faced off, Xavier handed K-State an embarrassing 103-77 loss, a loss the players and their head coach are calling one of the worst they've ever endured. Now K-State is the more experienced side and it won't be short on motivation to return the favor to Xavier tonight. This is also an extremely difficult spot for Xavier as they play their first true road game against a Wildcat team that has not lost at home this season. We also have a strong system play in support of our side that tells us to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after leading their last 3 games by 5 or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year's team in the first 10 games of the season. This system is a terrific 29-8 ATS since 1997 and it has seen teams favored by an average of 6.4 points win by an average of 12.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-04-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Year (ESPN) on Cavs -12
The Bulls have lost 5 straight games on the road with 4 of those losses coming by 15 or more points. The Cavs are rolling, having won 13 of their last 16 games. In their last 2 games, they crushed Dallas by 16 and Phoenix by 17 points. Plus, they'll be very hungry tonight after going down to Chicago by 1 point at home in the season's first meeting back on Nov. 5. Before that loss, the Cavs had won their two previous home games against the Bulls by scores of 14 and 25 points and I expected another lopsided win here. The Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Central. Plus, the Bulls are short on quality depth right now with Tyrus Thomas expected to be out until mid-December and with Kirk Hinrich also listed as doubtful for tonight. Lay the number. |
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12-02-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 211 | Top | 115-146 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Raptors/Hawks OVER 211
The Raptors are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road this season and their poor defense gives us a solid Overs opportunity tonight. The Hawks are 6-2 Over at home this season and they'll be hungry to run up the score after being held to just 88 points last game. The last time these two teams faced off, they combined for 228 points and I believe they are good for at least 215 tonight. Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - cold team failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 25-6 the last 5 season. Bet the Over. |
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11-25-09 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189
I really think this is a strong Unders opportunity tonight. Philly just played last night in an up and down game and now it must take on a Boston team that hasn't played since Sunday. Boston is one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at the Garden where it is only allowing 88.4 ppg. The Celtics should be especially concerned with the defensive end tonight after giving up 105 points to the Knicks last game. These teams have already met once this season and only 179 total points were scored. It is also highly in our favor that the Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 game after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, consider that the Under is 15-3 in the 76ers' last 18 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Bet the Under. |
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11-24-09 | Cornell +14 v. Syracuse | Top | 73-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cornell +14
This is a huge letdown spot for Syracuse tonight after big wins over Cal and UNC. The Orange aren't as talented or as experienced as they were a season ago, making this an even tougher spot for them. Cornell returns all 5 starters from a team that has made the NCAA tourney back-to-back years now and presents problems for the Orange because of how dangerous it is from beyond the arc. Boeheim sticks with his patented zone through thick and thin but Cornell is shooting 46.2% from 3 in two road games this season. The Big Red actually had the Orange down 16 points in the Carrier Dome last season. A better Syracuse team was able to come back to win by 10 points but Cornell still easily covered the 16-point number. In fact, the Big Red are a Perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at Syracuse. I must also mention that this is a very motivated spot for Cornell after being upset by Seton Hall and it is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more. Also, the Big Red are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Big Red are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East while the Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Ivy League. The public is all over the Orange as they are off to a 4-0 SU & ATS start. The books knew what side the money would be going down on here and they have given themselves a cushion with the Big Red. The odds makers expect to make bank with Cornell tonight, but we make sure they make a little less. Take the points. |
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11-20-09 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics -6
Without Jameer Nelson, I don't give the Magic a chance at Boston tonight against a highly motivated Celtics team ready to make a statement after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season. Expect a big game from Kevin Garnett, who was forced to miss last year's playoff series with an injury, and expect Rajon Rondo to dominate the point guard battle. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 meetings and the Magic are just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Boston. Expect the Celtics to send a message tonight. |
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11-19-09 | Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199.5 | Top | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under. |
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11-18-09 | New Jersey Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189 | Top | 85-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here. |
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11-17-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 198 | Top | 101-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under. |
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11-13-09 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings +5 | Top | 100-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +5
The Kings, who only have one less win on the season than Houston, are not getting nearly enough respect tonight, especially when you consider that they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also crucial that Sacramento is well rested here as it is 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103 to 101.8. The Rockets got out of the gate fast but are since coming back down to earth. Sac is improved and I like it outright tonight. |
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11-11-09 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under. |
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11-06-09 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 189 | Top | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under. |
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11-04-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic OVER 217.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here. |
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10-28-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
Big win for the Celtics last night has the public all over them, but after big wins often come letdowns and that's precisely what I think you'll see from Boston here. The Bobcats have played the Celtics tough as nails and the result has been lucrative. In fact, the Cats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this matchup and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Plus, the Bobcats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Celtics are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Doc Rivers played his starters longer than he wanted to last night, especially KG. Don't expect Boston to be up for the Bobcats the way they were for Lebron James and Shaq and expect Doc to give his vets a little more rest tonight, playing back-to-back early in the season as it is a long season. Take the points. |
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06-14-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 99-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 5 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic -3
Normally, the series would be heading back to LA for Game 5, but the unique 2-3-2 format of the finals gives the Magic a home game to fight for its playoff life and that is huge. Orlando is a very resilient team and it is not going to lay down in front of its home fans here, especially since this is the last home game of the season. Plus, teams playing with nothing to lose are very dangerous. The Lakers are feeling a little fat and happy right about now, just like they were following their narrow Game 2 victory, and while they may say they want to end it tonight, they aren't going to lose any sleep over a loss as they feel they can win it in front of their home fans in Game 6. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 NBA Finals games. Orlando is 33-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.3 to 94.1. Orlando is also 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic tonight. |
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06-11-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points. |
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06-09-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 104-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Game of the Year on LA Lakers +4
I like the Lakers to deliver the knockout blow with an outright win tonight so I'll definitely take them getting 4 insurance points. They escaped with a win in Game 2 while not playing their best and that does tons for their confidence while it doesn't do anything for Orlando's. The Lakers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. With the books knowing the public would shift to the Magic tonight, they have given the Lakers plenty of breathing room here with these points. Expect the Lakers to come out on top in a close one. |
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06-07-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Vegas Line Mistake on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers have only raised this line a half point from what we saw in Game 1 when the Lakers crushed the Magic by 25 points and I expect them to pay for their mistake. While I don't expect the Magic to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1, I still have the Lakers winning by double digits. The Magic live and die from the three-point line and they were not that bad from three in Game 1 (8 of 23) and were still dominated. Even if they make over their season average of 10, which is going to be difficult with as well as the Lakers are defending dating back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, they still have a lot of points to make up. Kobe Bryant is as focused and as hungry as I've seen him. He knows that putting the young and inexperienced Magic in a 0-2 hole all but closes the door on this series. Bet the Lakers! |
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06-04-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | Top | 75-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Series Opener on Lakers -6
This is where experience plays a big role. The Lakers played in the Finals a season ago and came up short. They know what to expect on the big stage and this time around they have the luxury of playing Game 1 at home. The fact that they lost in the Finals last year is also key as you won't see a team that is fat and happy. The Magic haven't been here before and I'm confident you will see their nerves in Game 1 tonight. LA also has a couple individuals that really want this title and they know how important a Game 1 win is in achieving it. Phil Jackson has a chance to earn his 10th NBA title and Kobe Bryant wants his first without Shaq and his 4th overall. The Lakers match up much better with the Magic than the Cavs did and they have a lot more weapons. Take advantage of a soft line in Game 1. |
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05-30-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic -2 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* Game 6 BEST BET (TNT) on Magic -2
The Magic have been the better team in this series and there's no way they are going to let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. The Cavaliers are 2-14 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 0-5 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando. Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season while Orlando is 12-3 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 107.9 to 88.2 in these spots. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.2 to 99.6. I'll back the Magic at home to close out the series tonight. |
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05-28-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Game 5 BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs -7
The Cavaliers will play their best game of the series tonight on their home floor where they are 44-3 this season. Cleveland will be very dangerous tonight because it will be fighting to stay alive in the postseason and also because it will be playing with nothing to lose. Now the pressure is on Orlando to close this thing out. Bottom line, Cleveland wins Game 4 on the road rather easily if the Magic don't go off for 17 three pointers and they won't make near that many on the road tonight. The Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, 14-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, and 17-6 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The public is all over the Magic tonight so the books are looking to cash in big with a Cleveland cover. We'll go against the grain for another big winner. |
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05-27-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on LA Lakers -5.5
After a 19-point Game 4 loss, you can expect the Lakers to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. LA is 25-3 SU in its last 28 home games with the Nuggets and the Nuggets are only 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games in Los Angeles. Plus, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game, losing by an average score of 102.8 to 115.1 in these spots. And lastly, the Lakers are 16-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. I'll lay the number here. |
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05-26-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Finals GOTY on Cavs pk
This is a do-or-die game for the Cavs when you consider the bleak history of coming back in a series after falling Behind 1-3, and I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion. The Cavaliers are 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. But here's the clincher: Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.0 to 88.1 in these games. I'll back the league MVP and the Cavs in this must-win spot. |
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05-25-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 208.5 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over. |
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05-24-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-99 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
5* Game 3 Monster BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs +1.5
LeBron's game winner in Game 2 saved the Cavs. Now I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling behind in this series again. The Cavs have held huge leads in both Games 1 and 2 and have let the Magic claw their way back. I expect the Cavs to show a much greater killer instinct from here on out. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. The Magic have struggled at home in the small chalk at 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. With the momentum gained in Game 2, I expect the Cavs to steal its home court back tonight. |
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05-23-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (ABC) on Lakers +4
First off, the Lakers are one of the finest road teams in the NBA at 31-15 this season. Secondly, each time LA has lost in these playoffs, it has responded with a convincing double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Thirdly, anytime you can get LA catching points, it is worth strong consideration, especially in a bounce back spot. The Lakers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Plus, LA is 17-6 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. There's no question the books have overvalued the Nuggets here as the public is jumping on their bandwagon. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Lakers are 41-14 SU against Denver since 1996 and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Pound LA tonight as they win this one outright! |
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05-22-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5 | Top | 95-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under! |
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05-20-09 | Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* Game 1 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic +9
The Cavs have won each of their 8 playoff games by 10 or more points so odds makers are begging for action on Cleveland with this line, but we won't bite. The Magic match up very well with the Cavs as Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all pose matchup problems. This is why Orlando has had Cleveland's number. The Magic won the season series 2-1 and have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11 overall. And when they haven't won, they have been right there to cover. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning pct. above .600. The Magic are coming off a very intense series while the Cavs have had a cake walk to this point. I expect the Magic to be ready to go here as it takes Cleveland some time to match intensity and to lose its rust after a long layoff. Bet the Magic. |
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05-19-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on LA Lakers -6.5
This line is soft. The Lakers are not going to be caught sleeping tonight after what happened in Game 1 of their last series, and they are not going to be showing any rust as they haven't had a long layoff coming into this series. Plan on LA making a statement tonight. Denver has looked great in these playoffs, but that's because it has played the majority of its games at home. Outside of a 58-point win at New Orleans, the Nuggets have looked like an ordinary team away from home in the playoffs. They are 2-2 on the road in the postseason and 6-11 in their last 17 road games overall. LA has had Denver's number. Over the last 3 seasons, LA is 11-4 SU and ATS in all meetings. The Lakers are 24-2 SU and 18-6 ATS at home against Denver since 1996 and 7-1 SU and ATS at home against the Nuggets the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. LA is winning its games by an average of 10.6 points at home and has won each of its home games against Denver by 14 points this season. Denver is only 5-17 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 107.1. Cash in with the Lakers! |
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05-17-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game 7 BEST BET on Lakers -12.5
After a double digit loss in Houston in Game 4, the Lakers returned home and gave the Rockets a 40-point beat down and I anticipate a similar course of events today. I don't expect this one to be that bad, but I do expect the Lakers to dominate from start to finish. Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss period. Also, Houston is 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in LA. Houston did steal Game 1 in LA, but the Lakers have wins of 29, 12, 13, and 40 points at home against Houston this season. That's a 23.5-point average margin of victory. I'll back the Lakers at home in this bounce back spot. |
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05-14-09 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -6.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Blowout of the Year on Magic -6.5
I'll back the Magic at home in this do-or-die Game 6. Orlando came out with great intensity in Game 5, but ultimately couldn't get the job done down the stretch. I'm expecting even more intensity tonight with its playoff life on the line and playing in front of its home crowd. Dwight Howard has called out his coach and now I expect him to back up his words with his play tonight. I also feel great about the fact that the public is putting its money on Boston here and odds makers have moved the line the other way. This is a clear sign that the Magic are the team the books feel will cover this number. Orlando is 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.6 to 89.3 in these games. The Magic are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 49-21-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a SU loss. Expect the Magic to bounce back big tonight! |
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05-12-09 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -2 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2
With Big Baby's 21-foot buzzer beater the Boston Celtics regained home court and take a huge amount of momentum back home with them for tonight's matchup. I can't see the Celtics giving their home court away tonight as they now know they are in position to win this series. The Boston crowd will be electric and I can't see Ray Allen's struggles continuing any further. Orlando is 8-26 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996 while Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. Plus, the Magic are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in the Garden. I'll bet Boston at home laying a small number tonight. |
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05-11-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -1.5 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Do-or-Die GOTY (TNT) on Mavs -1.5
A blown call by the officials has put the Mavs in an 0-3 hole, but I don't see the Mavs pouting about it tonight in front of their home crowd. Instead, they will have way more motivation to win than most teams facing an 0-3 deficit. I don't expect Denver to be going for the jugular tonight either after such an emotionally and physically draining Game 3, especially when they can close this thing out back at home in Game 5. So expect a letdown from the Nugs here. Dallas has won 20 of the last 26 at home in this matchup and we've got three more big time systems backing the Mavs here: Plays On - Favorites (DALLAS) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-9 ATS since 1996, Plays On - Home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 71-33 ATS since 1996, and Plays On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-15 ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are the better team and will win this series, but a proud Dallas team survives at home tonight. |
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05-10-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Houston Rockets OVER 194 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today. |
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05-09-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -4 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BOMB on Mavs -4
While Denver has played exceptionally well in these playoffs, it has done the majority of its damage at home. The Mavericks are quite the home squad as well, going 34-9 this season. Dallas has won 20 of its last 25 home games against the Nuggets. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have won 8 in a row, 17 of their last 18, and 22 of their last 24 at home. They are an extraordinary home team and I expect them to leave it all out on the floor knowing that 0-3 is as good as done. What cannot be overshadowed when looking at the Nuggets is that they are just 1-3 their L4 and 5-10 their L15 road games. The Nuggets are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 29-8 ATS since 1996 and plays on home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), and 71-32 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Mavs. |
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05-08-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -115 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 108-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with LA winning these game by an average score of 111.9 to 96.4. It's hard to get quality shots without good ball movement stemming from penetration, and the Rockets don't get good penetration nearly enough. Houston is only 2-13 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA! |
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05-07-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 177.5 | Top | 85-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight! |
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05-06-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -9.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* Game 2 BEST BET (TNT) on Lakers -9.5
The Lakers cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series so I expect a very motivated effort tonight on their home floor. Expect the Lakers to do a better job of getting out in transition where they can exploit Yao Ming's foot speed and they take advantage of their superior athletes. Plays on all home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons so right away we see the profitability of this bounce back situation. Plus, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 12.9 points on average. The Rockets played a perfect Game 1, but I expect Coach Jackson and the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments to send a message to the Rockets tonight. On top of that, the Lakers here the experts talking about the Nuggets being the team to beat in the West right now, and I expect that will light a fire under their butts as well. I'll lay the number. |
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05-05-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* Game 1 BEST BET on Cavs -11.5
Thanks to the Lakers not showing up last night, the Cavs will be ready here in Game 1 as they are not about to let the Hawks take them by storm. Atlanta has struggled on the road all season while the Cavs are 41-2 at home with a 14.4 point margin of victory. We saw Atlanta lose 3 games by double digit margins in its first round series against a Heat team that is far less explosive on offense and far inferior on defense than the Cavs. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 109.0 to 85.7, 7-0 ATS after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.4 to 87.1, and 16-1 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 86.7 in these spots. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points. |
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05-04-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -8 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Second Rd GOTY (TNT) on Lakers -8
Expect the Lakers to send a message to Houston in Game 1. LA is 4-0 against Houston this season, winning in its 2 home games by 29 and 12 points respectively. The Lakers beat the Jazz by double digits in 4 of the five games in their first round series, including all 3 games at home, and the Jazz is a team which posed more problems for LA because of its athleticism. The Blazers had no answer for Yao Ming in round one, but the Lakers have two mobile scoring threats on the block in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol that will give the big man trouble on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Here's the clincher: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 73-36 ATS since 1996. Pound the Lakers. |
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05-03-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* Mavs/Nugs Game 1 BEST BET on Nuggets -5.5
I'll back the Nuggets in Game 1 as Dallas won't look quite as good as it did in round 1 when it faces a team with a whole lot more offensive weapons. Dallas has struggled on the road all season long and I'm not reading too much into it's first round road wins against a battered Spurs team. The Nuggets are 36-8 at home this season and 4-1 SU and ATS at home versus the Nuggets over the last 3 seasons. In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Nuggets are an incredible 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging 4 or more losses vs. an opponent in last 2 years, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 22-4 ATS since 1996. All Nuggets in Game 1. |
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04-28-09 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 189.5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
We have seen 3 of 4 games go over in this series, but 2 of those games made it over by just 1 point. It's going to take an exceptional defensive effort for the Spurs to stay alive tonight, and I have no doubt that you'll see it from this well rested team. San Antonio is 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons - average score totaling 180.8 points. Popovich is 21-9 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of San Antonio - average score totaling 182.4 points in these games. And plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 71-28 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. With Dallas fighting to put the Spurs away and the Spurs fighting to stay alive, I expect a very high intensity defensive battle. Bet the Under. |
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04-27-09 | Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Underdog of the Year on Hawks +5
After cruising to a 90-64 victory in Game 1, the Hawks have suffered back-to-back double digit defeats. I believe strongly that the Hawks are the better team in this series and they will bounce back strong tonight to regain home court. Atlanta is 12-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Miami is 3-13 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. There's no way Miami can continue to shoot at such a high percentage from beyond the arc. When the shots don't fall as easily tonight, Atlanta's athleticism will take over this game. Bet the Hawks! |
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04-25-09 | San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Spurs +4.5
You can count on the Spurs bouncing back strong in Game 4 after their horrible Game 3 performance. San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning these games by an average score of 97.7 to 93.8. Plays on any team (SAN ANTONIO) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half after a combined score of 160 points or less are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs starters were shut down by Popovich in the third quarter of last game so they'll be fresh and hungry tonight. Plus, this is a huge rivalry and San Antonio won't take too kindly to that kind of beatdown. Got to grab the Spurs and the points here. |
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04-23-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GOTY on Lakers -1.5
I know the Jazz came back and won both of their home games after falling behind 0-2 in last year's playoff series with the Lakers, but this Lakers team, with Andrew Bynum, is better and this Jazz team is not playing as well as it did a season ago. The Lakers don't want to mess around and give the Jazz any inkling of hope or confidence. They want to put them in an 0-3 hole tonight so that this one is all but over. Utah has lost 9 of its last 11 games while the Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 so it's easy to see which team is playing better ball right now. The Lakers are the best road team in the NBA and Utah is not playing good enough defense right now to beat them. In fact, LA is 15-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.8 to 102.1. Utah is 4-12 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing these games by 4 points on average. Lastly, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games are 30-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Utah hangs around for a while, but in the end it's a win and cover for the Lakers. |
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04-22-09 | New Orleans Hornets +6 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 93-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Underdog Shocker on Hornets +6
The Hornets are a much better team than they showed in Game 1 and I expect them to bounce back strong tonight. The blowout loss had more to do with the Hornets playing badly than the Nuggets playing well. Chris Paul is one of the best players on the planet and I expect a huge game out of him in this revenge spot. Here's the facts: New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 106.3 to 96.3. The Hornets are also 16-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 98.5 to 96.9. Take the points! |
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04-20-09 | Dallas Mavericks +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
5* Monday Night NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Mavs +6
The Mavs won Game 1 outright by 8 points as a 4-point underdog, and it would have been even worse if the Spurs hadn't shot out of their mind from three. It doesn't make sense that the Mavs are now an even larger underdog in my opinion as the books have overvalued the Spurs' ability to bounce back. The Mavs are extremely confident and they are the better team with Manu Ginobli unable to go for San Antonio. San Antonio is 2-10 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, losing by an average score of 97.8 to 98.7 points in these games. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog period. The Spurs are now 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in San Antonio. Pound the Mavs! |
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04-18-09 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4 | Top | 108-81 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference 1st Round GOTY on Blazers -4
I'll take the Blazers in game 1 at home where they are 34-7 this season. Portland enters the playoffs red hot having won 6 in a row and 10 of its last 11. The Rockets enter the postseason with some disappointment as they lost their final regular season game and home court in their first round with it. The Blazers pick up a revenge angle as well, having lost two in a row to Houston (both were on the road). In fact, Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.6 to 93.7. Additionally, Portland's blowout win over Denver in its season final proves important as it is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more this season and 9-0 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Blazers! |
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04-14-09 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks -9 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
5* Tuesday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Hawks -9
Miami has clinched the No. 5 seed in the postseason so it has nothing to play for tonight in terms of playoff seeding and will sacrifice a loss to gain some health. Udonis Haslem is out for the remainder of the regular season with a thumb injury. Jamario Moon missed last game and is questionable tonight with a groin injury. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to miss tonight with a calf injury and Dwayne Wade is expected to sit this one out for rest. This is the Hawks' regular season home finale so I expect them to put on a show for their fans tonight as well as send a message to the Heat, which they will face in the first round of the playoffs. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Bet the Hawks! |
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04-13-09 | Orlando Magic v. Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 | Top | 80-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Bucks -3.5
The Magic are locked into the No. 3 seed in the East so it's about staying healthy the rest of the way out. Without Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, and with Dwight Howard's minutes cut down, the Magic won't stand a chance tonight. The Magic haven't been playing very well lately on top of it. You can expect a Bucks team which hasn't quit to lay it all on the line in their final home game of the season tonight. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and the Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Odds makers have favored the Bucks for a reason tonight. Lay the number. |
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04-11-09 | Orlando Magic -5.5 v. New Jersey Nets | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Orlando Magic -5.5
After thumping Cleveland, the Magic have gone through a 4-game stretch where they have not played very well. I took advantage of this recent decline in play by grabbing the Knicks last night against them. The Magic were called out after last night's terrible loss by head coach Stan Van Gundy and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight. The Magic have had no problem winning on the road this year as they are 27-12 SU and ATS away from home. New Jersey has no advantage in terms of fresh legs as it played last night in Detroit. Orlando has won 4 straight against the Nets with 3 of those wins coming by double digits. The Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Magic are an incredible 47-16-1 ATS in their last 64 games following a SU loss. Orlando is also 17-6 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Take the Magic tonight! |
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04-10-09 | New York Knicks +10.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA Game of the Year on Knicks +10.5
The Knicks have played the Magic very tough this season because they are on of the few teams which can match Orlando's transition game. In three meetings this season, the Knicks have lost by just 5, 7, and 4 points respectively. It is very hard to beat any team 4 straight times in the same season and the Knicks will have even greater motivation tonight because they were pounded 86-113 by the Pistons last game. While the Knicks are just 11-28 on the road, they are 25-13-1 ATS in those games and the Knicks have played their best ball against the best teams in the league. In fact, NY is 14-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NY is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season, 19-5 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season, and 18-5 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. Lastly, plays on any team (NEW YORK) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against an opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points! |
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04-09-09 | Philadelphia 76ers +6 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT MONSTER BEST BET on 76ers +6
After back-to-back defeats, I expect the 76ers to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight. The Bulls are improved but not deserving of this kind of respect against a team with a better record. One major key is that Philly is 25-10 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons while the Bulls are just 13-31 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the 76ers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago. Also, the 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the points! |
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04-08-09 | Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* ESPN Prime Time Game of the Month on Mavs -3
The Mavs are going to make the playoffs, but their mission right now is to get out of the No. 8 spot so they won't have to face the Lakers in round one. Dallas is just 1 game behind Utah in the Western Conference standings so I like the Mavs to go after this game hard tonight. Utah is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, getting kicked by an average score of 104.3 to 114.3 in these spots. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Also, Utah absolutely clobbered Dallas 115-87 last time these teams met so the Mavs will extract a little added motivation from that game as well. Lay the points tonight! |