Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints OVER 52 | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Chiefs/Saints over 52 -106 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -4 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Raiders -3 -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -2½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-13-20 | Falcons v. Chargers OVER 49.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 128 h 41 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Falcons/Chargers over 49½ -107 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +6½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens -7 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -7 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cowboys/Ravens over 45 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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12-06-20 | Eagles +9 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Eagles +9 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 177 h 20 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks/Eagles under 51 -106 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 146 h 8 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins/Jets under 45½ -106 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns OVER 45 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 1 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Browns over 45 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +3 +101 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Seahawks under 57½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 23 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Vikings -2½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 147 h 49 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Browns -3 -104 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -114 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Texans -6½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Packers -4 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +12.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Giants +12½ -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 147 h 23 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Colts -2½ -114 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +2½ -106 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 175 h 16 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Bears/Rams under 46½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-25-20 | Steelers -1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 34 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 54 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -119 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 178 h 56 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys over 54 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 6 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Ravens/Eagles under 46½ -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 14 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 147 h 2 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 53 m | Show |
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Bucs/Bears under 45½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 180 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 51 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Panthers over 51 -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 177 h 53 m | Show |
5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-27-20 | Rams +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 13 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105 I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -120 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 5 m | Show |
5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -120 I really like the Chiefs to come out on top in Super Bowl 54. I've been saying Kansas City was the team to beat for a while now and I actually think the number here should be closer to the Chiefs -3 than a pick'em. No disrespect to the 49ers, but I just think they are up against it here. No question who has the better quarterback in this game. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he's arguably got the most talent around him. I get the 49ers defense is good, but beating the Vikings and Packers is not exactly saying much. Sure Green Bay has Rodgers, but just look at what Rodgers has to work with compared to Mahomes. I also don't know that the Chiefs defense is all that far off from San Francisco. They don't have the talent up front like the 49ers, but as a whole these two were actually more similar than you might think. In fact, the Chiefs gave up fewer points/game and played a tougher schedule in terms of offenses faced. Say what you want about Andy Reid and him not winning the big game, the guy is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting his team ready with an extra week to prepare. As a head coach his teams are 18-3 ATS in the regular-season and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. I just think Mahomes and that offense will be too much for SF to overcome. Take Kansas City! |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -7 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 149 h 10 m | Show |
5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109 I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110 I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 91 h 20 m | Show |
5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110 I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 46 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 125 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL - Seahawks/Eagles Wild Card VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks/Eagles under 46 -110 I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Eagles and Seahawks. These two teams met up in Week 12 of the regular-season and the two combined for just 26 points in a 17-9 Seattle win at Philadelphia. It's hard to expect nearly double the offense in the rematch, especially with the problems both of these teams are facing offensively. Seattle's offensive line has been decimated with injuries and things got so bad at running back they had to bring back Marshawn Lynch. Eagles defense has played really well down the stretch and should continue that trend at home in this one. At the same time, Philadelphia's offense has been decimated with injuries and while Seattle's defense has struggled some down the stretch, they should be able to keep Wentz and the Eagles in check. UNDER is 15-5 in the Seahawks last 20 road games after a loss by 6 or less and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs a NFC East team. UNDER is also 24-9 in Eagles last 33 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 at home off a division win. Take the UNDER! |
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12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 47 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 20 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Saints/Panthers under 47 -110 I absolutely love the UNDER 47 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. Carolina turned over the offense to rookie Will Grier last week and it couldn't have much worse. The Panthers managed 6 points and 286 total yards, failing to find the endzone. Grier was a respectable 27 of 44 for 224 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. It's hard to imagine it going any better against the Saints on Sunday. That means the only way this game goes over this total is if New Orleans pops off for 30+ points and I just don't see that happening. If the Saints get any kind of comfortable lead they are going to become very conventional and really try to grind this thing out. New Orleans still has a shot at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. However, this game only matters if they win and the Packers lose at Detroit (GB 12.5-point favorite). They can also get the No. 2 seed if the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but they don't have to win to get it, as they would own the tie-breaker. If GB and SF win they are No. 3. You can bet they will be paying close attention that the Packers score and if Green Bay gets up big, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pulled several of their key players. Either way they aren't going to be trying to run up the score. UNDER is also 11-2 in New Orleans' last 13 games vs a team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 trips to Carolina. Take the UNDER! |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 154 h 18 m | Show |
5* NFL - Packers/Vikings NFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Packers/Vikings under 46 -110 I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in this one. These two teams already played once this season and combined for a mere 37 points. I have a really hard time seeing them eclipsing that mark by a full 10 points. Green Bay's offense hasn't been nearly as good as their scoring average. Packers are 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg yet are 22nd in total offense and rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. Hard to see them figuring it out against a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league and one that is giving up just 14.2 ppg at home. As for Minnesota's offense, they are really short handed here with their top two running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both doubtful to play. Note that in that first game against Green Bay they had 198 yards rushing. Green Bay's defense is also playing really well at the moment. Packers have held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or less. UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the Vikings last 7 division home games and 7-0 in the Packers last 7 overall against a team from the NFC North. UNDER is also 10-2 in Minnesota's last 12 after a game where they scored 30 or more and 8-3 in Green Bay's last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115 I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +3 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -120 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120 I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it. Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer. Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home. Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-12-19 | Jets +15 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110 I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one. The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one. It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books. Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York! |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants/Eagles under 45½ -109 I love the UNDER between the Eagles/Giants on Monday Night Football. I think a lot of people are going to look at this number and think it's way to low given how poorly New York's defense has played and the Eagles coming off a game where they gave up 37 points and over 400 yards of offense to the Dolphins. However, I don't see either team going off in this one. Eagles are perceived to be this great offense, but that just hasn't been the case in 2019. Giants are going to show up with one of their best efforts in this one, plus I think the conditions favor a low scoring game with rain expected throughout and winds approaching 15 mph. UNDER is 9-2 in the Eagles last 11 games after going OVER the total in their previous game, 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring and allowing 30 points in their last game. Take the UNDER! |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125 I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! |
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12-01-19 | Bucs -1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110 I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! |
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11-28-19 | Bears -3 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100 I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110 I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/Eagles under 47½ -110 Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's big NFC matchup between Seattle and Philadelphia. I just think the total here is based too much on how these two defenses played early on and not how they are playing right now. Seattle's defense looked as good as they had all season in their last game at San Francisco and I would expect that to carry over here, especially coming off their bye. I also don't think the Eagles offense is anything special. Philly has scored 22 or fewer in 4 of their last 5, including just 10 at home last week against the Patriots. Philadelphia defense has finally got healthy and it's shown. The Eagles have held each of their last 3 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They held the Bills to just 243 total yards, then held the Bears to 164 before limiting Tom Brady and the Pats to just 298 last week. There's also a good chance for strong winds in this game, which should have both teams running it a little more than they normally would. That should eat up some clock and have this thing well below the number. UNDER is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 at home vs a team that's giving up 5.65 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120 Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119 The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 25 m | Show |
5* NFL - Seahawks/49ers NFC West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/49ers over 47 -109 I look for these two teams to easily combine for at least 50 points an cover the total set by the books. Everyone likes to talk about the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but SF is averaging an impressive 35.3 ppg. That offense will be without George Kittle tonight, but they are getting back left tackle Joe Staley and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. I look for San Francisco to run the ball at will here and that's going to open up the opportunities for some big passing plays. I think the 49ers will easily score 30+ points here against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5. That means all we need is for the Seahawks to score around 18-20 to have us safely over the mark. I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson and that group can give us that. OVER is 41-18 in the Seahawks last 59 vs strong defensive teams that are giving up 17 or less points/game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs strong rushing teams that average 4.5+ yards/carry. OVER has also cashed in 4 of San Fran's last 5 division games and 8 out of their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |