This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Super Bowl Side Winner. One of the arguments for backing the Chiefs is that they simply find ways to win and that cannot be argued. At last check, the Eagles do the same. They have won 15 of their last 16 games with the only loss coming against Washington in Week 16 when Jalen Hurts was knocked out in the early part of the first quarter. Betting against Patrick Mahomes in these spots has been futile based on the results but this will be his biggest test at least on paper. This offense is still lacking consistency and coming into the Divisional Round, Kansas City was the third lowest EPA offense and now faces the top ranked defense in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA. The pass rush of the Eagles can make a difference and against a reshuffled Chiefs offensive line, Kansas City is going to see too much of Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams. While the defense will be a difference maker, what the offense has accomplished under coordinator Kellen Moore has been outstanding. The addition of Saquon Barkley cannot be overstated and he will be facing a Chiefs defense that has regressed against the run as since Week 11, Kansas City No. 20 in Defensive Rushing EPA and No. 24 in Success Rate. The Chiefs only option from a vanilla blueprint is to load the box to try and slow him down and make Jalen Hurts beat them, which he can do as well. The loaded box can be an issue with Barkley getting past that first line and he will be gone, just like the first play from scrimmage against Washington. We can go through all of the data but no need as the only info necessary is the Eagles were one of two of the final eight teams ranked top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, the other being Detroit and as mentioned, they have by far the best roster. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Championship Winner. Buffalo possibly got away with one last week against Baltimore as the Bills dominated early, were dominated late and were the beneficiaries of a dropped two-point conversion that got them to the AFC Championship. We do not know what would have happened in overtime but it was trending toward the Ravens yet they move on in what is a much better matchup and after opening as a pickem, it quickly shot up to -1.5 in favor of the Chiefs and it has hit 2 across the board as of Wednesday night and we are not sure which way the public is going to go come closer to game time but we are guessing it will be Kansas City based on the fact the late Chiefs money last week moved the line a point in the final 30 minutes before kickoff which made or broke many tickets after the well-played safety. The Kansas City run is unprecedented with how they have won so many one possession games in a row (14) and won again last week despite getting outgained 336-212 and it is uncanny to think a team can win an elimination game by more than one possession with only 212 yards of offense. With another result like that being taken into account, the metrics still have Kansas City No. 1 in the Luck Rankings and the expected line being Buffalo favored by 2.5 points which is also right on point with the Sagarin Ratings. That is taking home field into consideration but is not taking the Buffalo struggles against the Chiefs in the postseason and this is arguably the best Buffalo team coming in and they are five spots ahead of Kansas City in Net EPA. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters and then rolled over Denver. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. 10* (103) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Winner. People will look to the second meeting that saw Washington win the game 36-33 and immediately think the Commanders can do it again and while it is certainly a possibility, things are different. Going back to the first meeting in Week 11, the Eagles won 26-18 after falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter and they outscored Washington 26-3 after that before the Commanders tacked on a garbage score and added on garbage yardage in the final minutes which skewed the Eagles 434-264 overall domination. Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels was 22-32 for 191 yards with one touchdown and one interception, that touchdown being on that final meaningless drive. In that second meeting we referred to, Philadelphia had to play the entire game except for one series without quarterback Jalen Hurts who left the game with an injury and they had to turn to Kenny Pickett who was not horrible but it was obvious the whole team was going through the motions after Hurts left and Washington still had to close on a 22-6 fourth quarter run to win on another last second touchdown. Those first two skewed results are playing into this line as the Eagles closed as seven-point favorites last week once the public action hit on Sunday and they only opened as five-point favorites here and that is Washington overreaction from the whole season and especially last week with its upset at Detroit. One look at the recent results before Detroit shows struggles Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, that Eagles game, and New Orleans where they were fortunate to get through any of those with a win. We can go through all of the data but no need as the only info necessary is the Eagles were one of two of the final eight teams ranked top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and now are the only one of the remaining four teams. We have this line at 8 so anything under a touchdown is a gift. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the game of the weekend and the home field will be the difference. We cashed easily with Buffalo last week even after they fell behind 7-0 in the first few minutes of the game. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. It is the playoffs so we cannot bank on any revenge but the Bills will have that extra step after getting blasted in Baltimore 35-10 in Week Four in what was a horrible spot playing on short rest in their third straight primetime game. Baltimore is playing at a peak level now as it has won and covered five straight games with all of the victories by at least two touchdowns but it was expected according to the markets as the Ravens were favored by at least 6.5 points in all of those games. But we do not think they should be laying points here although it is close to a pickem as it is based on public perception with everyone talking about them and Buffalo has not been a home underdog since the final week of the 2020 season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again leading an offense that is No. 1 in Offensive EPA. The Ravens have averaged 29.6 ppg on the road against teams allowing 22.4 ppg but the Bills are giving up just 16.4 ppg at home and the loss of Zay Flowers is huge for the Ravens. Turnovers are huge in these swing games and Buffalo has the situational edge as we play against road teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 67-26 (72 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.9 ppg. 10* (394) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Divisional Game of the Year. There are two teams remaining in the postseason that are ranked in the top ten on both Offensive and Defensive EPA, Detroit and Philadelphia, with both tied at No. 5 for best in Net EPA. The Eagles had the one hiccup against Washington where they lost 36-33 on a last second touchdown and they have now won 13 of 14 games since a 2-2 start and the loss to Tampa Bay was the only one of the three that was not decided in the final half minute. This team is built to win right now and while we played against them last week, they were focused enough to win that game even if the Packers did not get hit with the numerous injuries they incurred throughout the game. We won with the Rams over Minnesota on Monday with that being just as much of a play fading the overrated Vikings as it was playing on the Rams. Los Angeles was displaced to Arizona for the few days leading up to that game and it was a moment where they felt a surreal situation according to a few of the players and the game was their focus. Now having to go back to Los Angeles to pack up again, the reality of the tragic situation has set in and while real life and football are usually separated, this is a tough one. The Rams now have to make the long trip out east in a very tough spot. This game sets up similarly for the Rams as it did with Houston and we are going against the disadvantage here. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. While the game was moved to Arizona, the Rams were still listed as the home underdog and teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. 10* (392) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Divisional Rd. Opener. This line has been fluctuating by a half-point back and forth as it opened at 7.5 or 8 and went up and down and it is currently at its highest point at 8.5 as of Wednesday night. This may be the square play of the weekend but this is the game where we can see the real potential which has been very rare. Kansas City finished with a 15-2 record and taking away the Week 18 game where they rested starters, they outscored opponents by just under 6 ppg which is not great considering having only one loss. The Chiefs won 11 games by just one possession and now come in favored by more than one possession in most places which makes Houston appealing but this is the one game we can see Kansas City pouring it on before facing either Baltimore or Buffalo. We are seeing a five-point swing from just a month ago when Houston came to town and that will scare some off Kansas City and even flip to the Texans. Houston dominated the Chargers mainly because Justin Herbert picked the wrong time to place the worst game of his career and that was only the second win this season for the Texans against a team that made the playoffs while getting outgained in six of their last nine games. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. This has been an amazing play against situation as teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss and coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.8 ppg. 10* (388) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This line has been all over the place as the Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites in some spots, immediately went to 4.5 before then going to 5.5 and now coming back down to 4.5. No matter the move, the line opened too high in a rematch from opening week in Brazil in a game that was won by the Eagles by five points but could have gone either way with the teams separated by just four total yards. Green Bay closed the season with a pair of two-point losses to finish 11-6 which is an over the top record for a No. 7 seed and they are right on plane in this rematch. The Packers finished No. 8 in Offensive EPA and No. 4 in Defensive EPA, one of only three teams in the postseason in the top ten in both categories, joining Philadelphia and Detroit. The Eagles got off to a sluggish 2-2 start but went on to win 10 straight games before a loss against Washington and then won a pair of meaning less divisional games to close the season. Philadelphia has one of the best rosters in the NFL, there is no doubt, but there are some concerns on both sides heading into this game. While they finished 14-3, it came against a schedule ranked No. 31 in the NFL compared to the Packers that played the No. 10 ranked schedule so the top ten EPA rankings are a bit skewed. We feel these teams are more even than what the line is saying and should be at 3. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.2 ppg. 10* (381) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Buffalo heads into the postseason off a loss at New England in a meaningless game where starters were rested and while some say that kills momentum, not with this team. This Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. The Broncos put together a great season that was unexpected with rookie quarterback Bo Nix who beat out Jarrett Stidham in the preseason for the starting spot and he has been very good with a 93.3 passer rating. Now comes a real test in a real environment. Denver had two wins against playoff teams in the regular season, this past Sunday over Kansas City and a Week Three victory over the Buccaneers where Tampa Bay was off a win at Detroit and Philadelphia on deck so it was a sleepy spot for the home team. Here, we play against road underdogs after three consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 47-6 (88.7 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg and this system is 7-0 this season. 10* (380) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Pittsburgh and Baltimore roll into the postseason on complete opposite runs and the Ravens are getting steamed because of this. Baltimore finished the season with four straight wins and covers and that does include a 17-point home win over Pittsburgh which many will point to when it comes to the third rematch but the Steelers were not at full strength in that last meeting. The Ravens finished No. 1 in Offensive EPA, No. 1 in Passing and No. 2 in Rushing so this is a dynamic offense that put up 34 points three games back. Now the Ravens are laying two more points with extra juice in some places making this number likely to reach 10 which is too big in a divisional playoff game in our opinion. The Steelers come limping into the postseason on a 0-4 run but they had a brutal last month to the season as they had to face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days and then got Cincinnati to cap it off. Pittsburgh has relied on its defense all season and while it slipped some down the stretch, this is still a top ten unit in EPA. This will have to be a ball control game to even think about a win as a shootout is not going to get it done but we are obviously more in tune with the number that is inflated with 94 percent of early money on the Ravens. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +0.0 ppg. 10* (377) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Wild Card Opener. Some might be surprised that the Chargers are favored on the road but it is justified. Los Angeles did not defeat a team that is in the playoffs besides its sweep of Denver while losing its five games against current playoff teams so that will be a concern to some but the momentum is important as the Chargers are 8-3 over their last 11 games, losses to Kansas city, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, the last one being the anomaly that was a sandwich game between the Chiefs and Broncos. The defense finished No. 5 in EPA and was top ten against both the run and pass with the offense ranking nine spots better in EPA than the Texans. The Chargers went 10-2 this season as favorite. After opening the season 5-1, the Texans closed 5-6 including bad losses against the Jets and Titans while scoring only two points two games back against Baltimore. Injuries have played a part in the passing game with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell going down with season ending injuries and while Joe Mixon had a solid season running the ball, Houston was just No. 23 in Rushing EPA. The receiving injuries definitely hurt the production of quarterback C.J. Stroud but he looked off from the start and his passer rating finished over 13 points lower than his rookie season. Houston was just one of three playoff teams that has one or fewer wins against top ten rated teams. They were fortunate to play in the worst division in the league where they went 5-1 against three teams that finished No. 23 or worse in overall rating. 10* (375) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. This is the biggest swing line of the week as Kansas City would be a four-point favorite with both teams at full strength and now we are seeing a 15-point swing with the number which is ludicrous. The Chiefs have been in this position before under head coach Andy Reid with nothing to play for and resting starters yet they have gone 3-1 against the number in the four games with this same scenario. Quarterback Carson Wentz gets the start for Kansas City and while his career has spiraled down, he is a veteran with a ton of experience with the ability to move the ball, something we did not see yesterday with Bailey Zappe and the Browns. Denver needs the win after the Bengals victory over the Steelers on Saturday and the line has moved even more. This opened at 6.5 which was a big adjustment to begin with and it now up to 11 across all shops. 10* (345) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. As expected, with the Bengals win on Saturday, this line has made a slight move but the big shift was made mid-week with this number sitting at 4.5 and then went up to 6.5 and now 7 in most shops. The Chargers can improve their seeding and it is a big one because a win means having to face Houston in the Wild Card Round while a loss means a trip to Baltimore, a scenario they do not want. So the must win aspect is going to put the public all over Los Angeles which is why the number is what it is. The Raiders have won two straight games and with the exception of a dud in Tampa Bay, they have been playing well over the last month and a half. Quarterback Aiden O’Connell has been solid the last two games and this team will be playing hard in a divisional rivalry while the Raiders have covered six straight games after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (348) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. The Falcons need to win and have Tampa Bay lose to get into the postseason so they have to get the job done here. Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay after beating the Buccaneers in both regular season matchups. But the Falcons are overpriced here, laying over a touchdown against a team that continues to fight despite the result last week. The Panthers fell down early against Tampa Bay and could not recover but quarterback Bryce Young had another strong game and he looks like a different quarterback than the one that was benched after Week Two. After opening the season 1-7 ATS, the Panthers are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games and this is the perfect buy low spot with an overadjusted number. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (351) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. Washington is in the playoffs and is playing for seeding as a victory here puts them in the No. 6 seed and a much better matchup in the Wild Card Round as loss means a trip to Philadelphia. That being said, this is another overadjusted line with the markets forced to inflate the number, and it continues to rise, on a team that needs to win against a team playing for nothing but pride. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss at Philadelphia but had won four of their previous five games so they have been playing well and are in the top 10 in DVOA over this stretch. This is another steam with this number opening at 4 and is now up to 7 at most shops because of the near must win aspect for Washington and going back, teams that lose by 31 or more points that are underdogs of four or more are on a 68 percent run the following week. 10* (354) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is a wait move, do not bet this now because there will be value on Saturday. We are grabbing Pittsburgh here for a few reasons but we cannot bet it now. The Steelers are locked into the playoffs with a chance to win the AFC North but that will likely be gone by early Saturday when Baltimore beats Cleveland. As of Friday, the line is 2.5 after going down to 1.5 but came back up and we will likely see a move once the Ravens are close to clinching and this is why we wait. Once the Ravens clinch, Pittsburgh has nothing to play for is the common theory but that is far from true. The Steelers still have some on the line and off the top, they are not going to lay down for the Bengals which are still in the playoff hunt as if nothing else, this is the spoiler spot to knock a rival out of the playoffs. On their end, a win here locks them in the No. 5 spot which means going to Houston which is the ideal spot that every team would want. A loss means going to Baltimore for the first round which should be avoided. The books are smart knowing the scenarios so it might not steam up much but this is a wait and watch opportunity to get the best number as it will definitely not go down. This is a must win for the Bengals which are playing their best football of the season and that is why they are already favored and these must win games can be a problem with lines already shaded. 10* (356) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The scenario is simple which sets up a good spot on Monday night. With the Vikings win over the Packers, the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC will be on the line next week when the Lions take on the Vikings at Ford Field. That makes this game meaningless for Detroit yet with all of the talk from head coach Dan Campbell about how much this game means, which it does from a revenge standpoint, we are still seeing a line that has been on the move. It opened at 2.5 and has gone to 3.5 with 85 percent of the money on the Lions based on the rematch and now the value is on the 49ers. As much as Detroit wants it, things could change and that unknown is on our side. Obviously it has been a tough season for the 49ers as they have battled injuries and the preseason favorites to win the NFC are out of the playoffs. They have heard the talk all week and no way they will sit down here and while it is not a spoiler role, it is in fact a moment to prove something even though there is nothing on the line. This is a spot to buy low on a team that no one wants to back and we likely will not see a line move back the other way since it had not happened directly after the Minnesota game. The final home game on a Monday night will provide a great environment and a chance to fade huge public perception. 10* (432) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. With the Tampa Bay loss last week, Atlanta controls its own destiny to win the NFC South as it clinches with a win here and at home against Carolina next week. The Falcons are coming off a win over the Giants, which is not saying much of course, in the first start for quarterback Michael Penix but it gave him a lot of confidence. He went 18-27 for 202 yards, no touchdowns and a pick that went off tight end Kyle Pitts’ hands. Penix finished with a 53 percent Success Rate, which is well above average for a rookie quarterback in his first start. Now he gets to face another bad defense and has the confidence. Washington got away with one last week as it got to face the Eagles with quarterback Jalen Hurts for basically the entire game. The Commanders got the win despite committing five turnovers. It got them to 10-5 and they can clinch a playoff berth with a win here but they are overvalued. The offense remains potent but the defense leaves a lot to be desired, sitting No. 24 in Defensive EPA and not having much to look at from Penix, we think that gives Atlanta a big edge. Here, we play against home favorites off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 28-7 (80 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.8 ppg. 10* Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. With this line being only 1, it is screaming Minnesota and that is why the side is Green Bay. The Packers have clinched a playoff berth with both sides of the ball playing exceptional. They have scored 30 or more points in five straight games while allowing 19 points or less in five of their last six games with the only exception being the game against Detroit on the road. Green Bay is top eight in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and is ranked No. 2 in the Sagarin Ratings so the line is right on the underlying metrics and comer Sunday, public money will be rolling in on the Vikings. A big reason is that Minnesota has won eight straight games with the horseshoe firmly inserted as the Vikings remain No. 2 in the Luck Ratings and these fortunate wins are eventually going to catch up. This has come against a schedule ranked No. 24 in the league and while it is a big game for Minnesota as well for obvious reasons, we cannot ignore the fact it has been outgained in three of its last four games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season averaging 370 or more ypg and after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 28-6 (82.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.5 ppg. 10* (425) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Tampa Bay has put itself in a bad position following its loss to Dallas last week despite outgaining the Cowboys by 90 yards as they were done in with a -2 turnover margin. The Buccaneers dropped from NFC South leaders to out of the playoff picture so now they need to finish with a better record than the Falcons to win the division since they lost both games to Atlanta. This is another one of those must win scenarios there is some value because of the opponent which we will get to. The Buccaneers are No. 7 in Offensive EPA and can take advantage of a bad defense. Carolina snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Arizona which eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. After being one of the worst ATS teams in the first half of the season, going 1-7 ATS, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games which adds some value as does the fact Tampa Bay was favored by 6.5 points in Carolina so we are seeing only a 1.5-2 point venue move but we do not like the limited adjustment. Here, we play on home favorites averaging 27 or more ppg after two straight games where 50 or more points were scored going up against teams allowing 27 or more ppg. This situation is 39-2 (95.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +15.2 ppg. 10* (424) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Broncos are one win away from the playoffs and would like to get that taken care of Saturday in Cincinnati. The good news is that they have Kansas City in Week 18 and the Chiefs will likely rest starters but get it done here and there are no worries. Denver is coming off a loss at Los Angeles last week following a four-game winning streak and it was a tough spot against the Chargers playing on a short week with travel. The Broncos can secure a winning road record with a win and they are 6-2 ATS. Additionally, they are 5-0 ATS this season against losing teams. Give Cincinnati credit for not giving up after 0-3 and 1-4 starts and still have a small hope at the playoffs but we feel they are overvalued here. The defense shut Cleveland down last week, one of the few games the Bengals have done so as their defense is still No. 27 in Defensive EPA. The offense and quarterback Joe Burrow have kept the season alive as they are No. 7 in Offensive EPA but now face the No. 1 ranked team in Defensive EPA. Cincinnati has not been good at home, going 2-5 both straight up and against the number. Here, we play on road teams after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 45-12 (78.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.7 ppg. 10* (411) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Supreme Annihilator. The Chargers snapped a two-game losing streak with a big win over Denver to conclude a 5-3 home schedule and the playoff scenario is simple as the Chargers can ensure their playoff spot with a road win over the Patriots. Despite a couple rough games, the defense remains strong at No. 7 in Defensive EPA and while the offense has slowed down, they have a great matchup here. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season including 3-0 when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Patriots have lost five straight games including a three-point loss at Buffalo last week which was their Super Bowl and while they still face the Bills in Week 18, that game will likely be meaningless for Buffalo. This is definitely a letdown spot for New England and while it is back home following a two-game roadtrip, they have dropped both games at home following two road games and by more than what they are getting here. The defense has bottomed now, now at No. 30 in Defensive EPA after allowing 28.2 ppg during this losing skid. Here, we play on favorites allowing between 18 and 23 ppg and after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 30-3 (90.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +7.6 ppg. 10* (407) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Star Attraction. Seattle closed its home schedule with a pair of losses against Green Bay and Minnesota and have gone from a division leader to currently out of the playoffs altogether. The Seahawks have to win out and get some help along the way so they need to roll here before heading to Los Angeles to face the Rams to close the regular season. Seattle has been a great team on the road as it is 5-1 including four straight wins with the lone loss coming at Detroit and has edges all over the field in this matchup. Chicago has been a bigger disaster than expected and it is safe to say the Bears have tossed in the hat. They have lost nine straight games with the last three showing how dysfunctional they are as the defense has been crushed over this recent stretch with interim head coach Thomas Brown, with the 49ers, Vikings, and Lions putting up a combined 102 points over the last three Bears losses. On the other side, the Bears offensive line has been awful having given up the second most sacks in the NFL this season, and that smells disaster taking on a defensive line that Seattle has. Here, we play against home teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after three straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +9.9 ppg. 10* (405) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Star Attraction. Houston has clinched the AFC South and is likely locked into the No. 4 spot for the playoffs so this line has gone from a -2.5 opener to now -5.5 in most spots because of what is more important on the other side. That being said, it is too much of a move giving a lot of value on the Texans which will be playing all of their starters before probably doing some rest next week. Houston has the No. 5 ranked defense in EPA and that is big against this Ravens offense hitting the road coming off a home win over the Steelers. Baltimore has won two straight games and has the outside shot of winning the AFC North which is why this line has gone where it is. They do have the No. 2 ranked offense in EPA but that does drop considerably in home/road splits and from a motivational standpoint, this being the final home game for the Texans gives them that after last loss last week in Kansas City, losing wide receiver Tank Dell and the team emotionally gone after that. Houston is 3-0 this season against the number against teams outscoring opponents by 6 or more ppg. 10* (404) Houston Texans

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Vikings have won seven straight games and are now tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North and they control their own destiny. The seven game winning streak has come against the Jaguars, Colts, Bears, Titans, Cardinals, Falcons and Bears, four coming by just one possession. They are coming off a three-game homestand and now head west which is an auto play against and especially for a team favored and sitting No. 2 in the Luck Ratings while playing a schedule ranked No. 23 and those do not correlate well together. The early lookahead line had Seattle -2 and has flipped five points, mostly because of the Minnesota winning streak but also with the bad loss the Seahawks had last week. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak and Seattle is now in a position where it needs to win out to take the NFC West but also can miss the playoffs altogether with a poor finish. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +130 to -150 allowing between 335 and 370 ypg and after being outgained by 150 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 55-24 (69.6 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.5 ppg. 10* (122) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Arizona snapped a three-game slide with a win over New England to get back to .500 and is still in position to win the NFC West but it cannot slip up here. The Cardinals are a game behind the Rams and Seahawks with two losses to the latter and the only hope to make the playoffs is to win out and get some help on top of it. The road has not been great as they are 2-4 with both wins coming by only one point but now face the weakest opponent on the road schedule. They have played the No. 1 ranked slate and have gone 5-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16. Carolina had a nice run of three straight one possession losses against division leaders before getting blown out by Dallas last week. That could be the final nail with quarterback Bryce Young showing some positive signs but it has been the defense running them into the ground, currently No. 31 in Defensive EPA. The number has moved considerably but it is the right move we are not afraid to lay it. Here, we play against teams with a defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 48-19 (71.6 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.0 ppg. 10* (109) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Philadelphia has won 10 straight games to take control of the NFC East as it now leads by three games over Washington so it can clinch with a victory. The Eagles are 6-1 on the road but four of those wins have come against teams not going to the playoffs and despite the 2-1 record against projected playoff teams, they were outgained in all three of those. Overall, they have played the No. 25 ranked schedule while sitting No. 3 in the NFL Luck Ratings and the disparity of those two rankings show that they are overrated in the markets. Washington was fortunate to get past New Orleans last week as a missed two-point conversion for the Saints got it the one-point win. Obviously this is must win territory for any division hope but it is also big for the Wild Card as the Commanders are in the No. 7 spot with three teams behind lurking close. This is a good buy low spot getting points at home and are 3-1 ATS this season off a win by six points or less. Here we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -1.0 ppg. 10* (114) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The advanced line in this game was New York favored by 3 and has now done a complete flip and for obvious reasons. The Jets are having a miserable season but there has been no quit despite being 4-10. They are coming off a win at Jacksonville which came after three losses where they could have and should have won each of those. The offense has improved to No. 14 in Offensive EPA and going back to the no quit, there is certainly no quit in Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are 2-0 this season straight up and against the number coming off consecutive road games. The Rams have won three straight games while on a 7-2 run to get to 8-6 overall to put themselves into a tie for first place in the NFC West. They are now in a horrible spot coming off the huge win over Buffalo and then taking out rival San Francisco on the road while now having to travel all the way east with two divisional games on deck to end the season. This game is the perfect trap spot and Los Angeles is overvalued based on the run. Here, we play against road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg. 10* (120) New York Jets

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Star Attraction. The Steelers are coming off a loss at Philadelphia to fall to 10-4 and it was the first loss of the season that was by more than one possession. Pittsburgh remains on the road in another tough spot and are actually catching a bigger number despite being a divisional game. While the Steelers failed to win their first game this season when underdogs after starting 5-0, this is the prime Mike Tomlin spot as an underdog coming off a loss. And he knows this team with his defense that has allowed no more than 19 points over the last eight games in this series. Quarterback Russell Wilson is coming off his worst game over his last four starts but still posted a 94.5 passer rating and now faces a bottom 10 defense in DVOA in deep balls so the absence of wide receiver George Pickens is not as big as it could normally be. Baltimore is coming off a dominant win over the Giants but it was the Giants. The Ravens are 2-2 over their last four games, one of those losses coming against this Steelers team and this is a must win to stay in the division hunt and that is a reason we are going against them here which is due to the line being shaded that way. In this series during the regular season when the line is a field goal or more, the underdog is 23-4-3 ATS which goes back to 2004. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (105) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. We made a bad call with the Chargers last week as they got boat raced at home against Tampa Bay to make it two straight losses. Los Angeles is currently sitting in the No. 7 seed in the AFC and we now have a buy low spot with this number opening at 3 and has come down under that in most spots despite the majority of the early week money hitting the Denver side. The 40 points allowed against the Buccaneers were the most this season so it was simply an anomaly where things got out of control in a 27-0 second half. The Chargers have struggled against the top teams as they are 0-5 against teams ranked in the top ten but have gone 8-1 against teams ranked below that and that is where Denver falls. The Broncos have won four consecutive games and have now covered five in a row which is going to continue to bring in public money. The last three wins have been on the fortunate side as the Raiders failed late at the goal line, the Browns had their game covered until a pair of Jameis Winston interceptions under two minutes and then the win against the Colts last week was another façade as the Broncos gained just 3.2 yppl, the eighth-worst offensive performance of the season of any team in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss playing a marginal winning team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +4.7 ppg. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime winner. The spot for Chicago was supposed to be last week with its first game after the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus and the Bears came up small in San Francisco. Now the Bears are back on the road but in a divisional game against a team they just say a few weeks ago with the first meeting being a three-point loss in overtime. Quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that meeting and has been solid since interim head coach Thomas Brown has been calling the shots, he has completed 82 of 140 passes for 961 yards with seven touchdowns and a 96.2 passer rating. Is Minnesota really this good? The Vikings have won six straight games and are now just a half game behind Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Six game winning streak has come against the Jaguars, Colts, Bears, Titans, Cardinals and Falcons, four coming by just one possession in the last three, they have actually been behind in the fourth quarter. The defense is the strength with Minnesota being No. 3 in Defensive EPA but this is a tough spot in a divisional matchup for the second time and the first coming only three weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential +-5.4 ppg. 10* (481) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the PITTSBURHGH STEELERS for our NFL Game of the Month. The Eagles have been red hot, winning two weeks ago against the Ravens and sneaking by the Panthers last week to make it nine straight wins and they are currently three games ahead of Washington in the NFC East. Six of the wins have come against non-playoff contenders and are overpriced this week because of the recent run while going through a contentious locker room. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been up and down and despite his scrambling ability, the Eagles are ranked ninth worse in sack rate despite behind a good offensive line and have an awful matchup here. The Steelers have won two straight games following the loss in the weather against Cleveland and retain their two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. The defense leads the way at No. 5 in Defensive EPA but we love the underdog aspect here, especially over a field goal. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65 percent) as an underdog and the quarterback situation is better with Russell Wilson 27-9 ATS (75 percent) as a dog playing with a defense that allows fewer than 20 ppg. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of -0.6 ppg. 10* (469) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Los Angeles is coming off a tough loss against Kansas City in what was another lucky win for the Chiefs which just vaulted the even higher into the top spot into the Luck Rankings. The Chargers are back home and tied with Baltimore and Denver in the Wild Card spot. The new coaching dynamic with Jim Harbaugh has totally turned the defense around as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and catch a sneaky good matchup here. Offensively, Justin Herbert has been great and faces a Tampa Bay defense that is No. 31 in Passing Success Rate allowed. Tampa Bay has won three straight games following a four-game losing streak before their bye week and now face its toughest opponent over this stretch and its longest trip. The Buccaneers have won their games against the Giants No. 27, Panthers No. 30, and Raiders No. 28tin DVOA. Now they face a defense ranked No. 9 in Defensive in DVOA. Here, we play on home teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 163-93 (63.7 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +7.8 ppg. Great bounce back situation in what is a big game for the Chargers. 10* (476) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Afternoon Dominator. We had Arizona last week and the Cardinals came up small, namely Kyler Murray who took them out of the game in the first quarter. We respect him enough for a bounce back in a game they need to win as the Cardinals got bumped to +1200 to win the NFC West despite being just a game and a half back. They fell to 2-4 on the road but remain home where they had won three straight games prior to that. This is a great matchup in a must win spot where we think everything gels. New England came into the season with no expectations but did have a core defense that has gone so far away. The Patriots are now No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have allowed 30 ppg over their last three after allowing 45 points combined in their previous three games against the Jets, Titans and Bears, three teams going nowhere. Quarterback Drake Maye has shown signs but is still ranked bottom third in the metrics with nothing around him. Here, we play on home teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 21-4 (84 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of + 7.8 ppg. 10* 478* Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Houston has not been the team from last season and we think this is a buy low time. The Texans are coming off their bye week following a three-point win over Jacksonville to put an end to a 1-3 run and they are back home following two straight losses here after a 4-0 start in Houston. They have been one of the most underachieving teams this season with C.J. Stroud taking a regression from his rookie season but has a good matchup here against a defense ranked No. 16 in Defensive Passing EPA. Miami remains in the playoff hunt going on a 4-1 run after a fortunate win over the Jets last Sunday. The offense has peaked with the return of Tua Tagovailoa but it is a misnomer. This is the best defense the Dolphins have faced over this stretch as the Texans are ranked second in defensive DVOA and has been great both against the run and pass. The Texans lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate and how to slow Tua down is to put him under pressure. Here, we play against teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent)since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (458) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Panthers took a while to find their stride and after an unsuccessful run with Andy Dalton at quarterback, they have been much better with Bryce Young back after the Dalton injury. Carolina is still ranked last in most of the metrics and is No. 32 in the Sagarin Ratings but a lot of this is due to its miserable midseason form and while the Panthers have lost three straight games, all have been by one possession and against current playoff positioned teams. Young is No. 11 since his return in the PFF passing grade and now faces an awful defense. Dallas had won two straight games prior to their kickoff debacle last week against Cincinnati and the Cowboys are back on the road for the first time in three weeks and underdogs which have the public biting. Cooper Rush is not good and he showed that again against an awful defense, his third straight against bad units, and the Dallas defense is now ranked No. 29 in ypa allowed. Here, we play on favorites after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt going up against an opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 26-1 (96.3 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Both the Rams and 49ers saved their seasons with wins last week to keep their NFC North division hopes alive. San Francisco played its most complete game since a win at Tampa Bay back on November 10 and while that one resulted in just a three-point win, this scoring result was indicative of what took place on the field. Injuries have derailed their season but at 6-7, they are two games behind Seattle with a season split already completed so every game is needed at this point. Despite the losing record, the 49ers are No. 13 in Net EPA and found a replacement at running back with Isaac Guerendo who made his third career start across college and the NFL and put up 128 yards of total offense. Los Angeles is coming of arguably the most entertaining game of the season in a 44-42 win over Buffalo to make it two straight wins while going 6-2 over its last eight games. The Rams are healthy again and will not be an easy out but they have a huge disadvantage on defense. They are No. 29 in Defensive EPA and struggle on both levels, sitting No. 29 against the pass and No. 27 against the run. On offense, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been great over his last four games with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions while averaging 260.3 ypg but definitely has a tough matchup here on the road. San Francisco lost the first matchup by three points despite outgaining the Rams 425-296 so this is a must win in that regard as losing the season series with only three games left will all but end their season. Here, we play on favorites after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games, when playing on a Thursday. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.9 ppg. 10* (452) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Bengals are coming off another tough loss as they fell to the Steelers with turnovers playing a big part in the defeat. The offense remains one of the best in the league as they are No. 7 in Net EPA as the defense has derailed their season but that should not be a big problem tonight. Cincinnati has been the second most unluckiest team in the NFL just ahead of the Jets as seven of its eight losses have been by one possession with six of those against teams in current playoff positions. This has been a favorable spot for the Bengals this season as they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites with those wins coming against the Browns, Giants and Panthers while going 4-0 ATS when coming off a home loss. Dallas has won two straight games following a five-game losing streak and are once again a home underdog after being favored here over the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are officially horrible on both sides of the ball as they are No. 29 in Offensive Net EPA and No. 28 in Defensive Net EPA so while the Bengals get the bad rap for its defense, the Cowboys have been just as bad on that side. At least they could keep up with Dak Prescott but with him out, there has been little hope. Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is not good and the metrics prove is as of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, he is No. 36 in yards per attempt at just 5.4 and he has had two games of 2.0 and 4.6 ypa. Dallas is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (143) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We are going back to the well with the Chiefs. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds and last week was the first instance we backed them and were unable to cover against the Raiders in what was another last second win. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo three weeks ago and barely got by Carolina and Las Vegas the last two weeks and are now on a 0-6 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Chargers knocked off Atlanta last week to make it five wins in their last six games to improve to 8-4 which is good for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. This series has not been in their favor as they have dropped six straight games against the Chiefs with the majority of those being close defeats, five coming by one possession. That has put the majority of the money on Los Angeles which has knocked this line down from its opening of -5.5. The defense has been the strength this season as the Chargers are No. 4 in Defensive EPA but they have still been outgained in three straight games and we are ready for this Chiefs offense to finally explode and we are expecting a big game from Isiah Pacheco who finally got back into the lineup last week after missing nine consecutive games. 10* (142) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Buffalo is still chasing down Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after clinching the AFC East last Sunday with a 35-10 win over a banged up San Francisco team in the snow. The Bills improved to 10-2 on the season including 6-0 at home and they have now won seven straight games but are now in a very difficult spot having now scored 30 points or more in their last six games. Along with Philadelphia, Detroit and Green Bay, Buffalo is one of just four teams ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and come in No 5 in Net EPA. While there have been blowouts along the way, the Bills are No. 6 in the Luck Ratings so there have been good fortunes as well. The Rams are coming off a win at New Orleans despite getting narrowly outgained to improve to 6-6 and they remain right the mix in the NFC West at 6-6. One game behind Seattle. They are back home where they have dropped two straight following a 3-1 start and it will be up to the defense to slow down the Bills offense and this is a significant game to take with a game at San Francisco on deck for Thursday. The Rams have been hit with the injury bug throughout this season but are as healthy as they have been this season. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -0.7 ppg. 10* (138) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The season is on the line for Arizona as it sits one game behind Seattle in the AFC West but a loss here essentially puts it three games back due to losing the season series with the Seahawks and no team out of this division is going to gain a Wild Card spot. They lost in Seattle two weeks ago despite winning the yardage battle 298-285 and then lost in Minnesota last week in the final minutes in another game they won the stats by 154 yards. After a slow start, Arizona has outgained its opponents in five straight games and it returns home where it is 4-2, losing to Detroit and Washington which was way back in September. The Cardinals had won four straight games prior to this while allowing only 10 ppg in three home games over this stretch. We are still unsure how Seattle is 7-5 as it pulled off the win over the Jets in a game it should have been beaten badly as the Seahawks were down 21-7 with the Jets driving for a 28-7 lead but a tipped ball turned into a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown resulting in a 14-point swing and the defense did its job the rest of the way. That put Seattle at 4-1 on the road this season with the only loss coming at Detroit and we feel that is part of the lower than expected number even though it has crept up to 3 in some shops. After outgaining their opponents in their first four games, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last eight with their last two yardage advantages coming by only 13 yards combined. Four of their seven wins have been by one possession and the Seahawks are now ranked No. 7 in the Luck Ratings following last week. 10* (136) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota is coming off another fortunate win as it rallied late in the fourth quarter with the winning touchdown coming with 1:13 remaining. The Vikings were No. 1 in the Luck Ratings two years ago when they went 13-4 and won the NFC North and their current 10-2 record is a bit skewed as they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings this season. They are on a five-game winning streak with four of those victories coming by one possession while seven of the 10 wins are by that amount. This is a great sell high spot with the number continuing to climb. Atlanta had the lead in the NFC South but has lost three straight games and is now tied with Tampa Bay at 6-6 with New Orleans lingering two games back. The Falcons opened the season 3-0 on the road but have dropped their last two games on the highway including a 38-6 loss at Denver in their last travel spot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game of the season as he tossed four interceptions and has regressed considerably since a great start as he has six interceptions and no touchdowns over his last four games and it will not be any easier here but he has been a gamer in his career going 18-9 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a passing defense allowing a comp percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of 0.0 ppg. 10* (121) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit continues to roll along as it is now 11-1 following a Thanksgiving win over Chicago and the Lions remain home to face another divisional foe. Detroit is now No. 4 in Offensive EPA and No. 1 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is No. 1 in Net DVOA and the public will be lining up on their side come Thursday night with the short price. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are tied for No. 4 in the Luck Ratings. Green Bay came through last week in a no sweat win over Miami and the challenge gets tougher. The Packers at 9-3 are in third place in the NFC North which shows how strong this division has been and having already lost to the Lions, a win here gets them right back in it. As mentioned, the Packers are one of only four teams in the top ten on each side of EPA and they come in at No. 5 in Net DVOA. Along with the Eagles, they are the one team that can take down Detroit and despite a 10-point loss in the first meeting, they outgained the Lions 411-261 with a pick six being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (101) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Cleveland is coming off a win over Pittsburgh last Thursday in non-optimal conditions so while this might be considered a letdown similar to after the Baltimore win and losing big to the Chargers, there are other factors saying that will not happen. The Browns were outgained by only 50 yards against the Chargers so the final score was misleading due to a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. Cleveland is just 1-4 on the road but two of those losses were by four points while the loss in New Orleans was decided in the fourth quarter when Tayson Hill went off. Denver is now 7-5 following a 10-point win over the Raiders who we had and should have covered but were denied on their last drive. Of the Broncos seven wins, two have come against the Raiders and another against the Jets while the other four were all against the NFC South where head coach Sean Payton resided so that familiarity cannot be discounted. They have outgained only five opponents, four of those being those four NFC South teams. Quarterback Bo Nix is 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season and we saw a similar run earlier this season with Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels also opening 5-0 ATS in his first five games as a favorite and he has since dropped his last two in that role and we do not think this is a coincidence. Trying to figure out good quarterbacks can be difficult early on but when there is history and film, teams adjust. This game opened at 7.5 and has come down despite 92 percent of the money coming in on the Broncos so this is prime reverse line movement. 10* (483) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the best game of Week 13 with two of the hottest teams squaring off and this line is right where it should be but we could see it come down a tick with 87 percent of the money on Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven straight games and have taken a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East but it has come against a pretty cake schedule. Wins over the Commanders and Rams the last two week have been the best wins as they have defeated no other playoff team during this run and now they face a real test and on the road. Overall, Philadelphia has faced a schedule ranked No. 29 in the league. Barkley leads the No. 1 ranked team in Rushing EPA but things will not be easy here against the No. 2 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Baltimore is coming off a win over the Chargers following its loss against Pittsburgh and over its recent 8-2 stretch, the only two losses have been within the division. The Ravens are 3-0 against the NFC to move Lamar Jackson to a remarkable 23-1 against the NFC in his career and while some of that can be considered random, it is still impressive. Baltimore brings in the No. 1 overall Offensive EPA as they are No. 1 in passing behind Jackson and No. 2 behind Derrick Henry. He does not have a good matchup but the balance is key here and the home field is a huge advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in December games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.9 ppg. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen in early November following a loss to Carolina and the Saints responded with a pair of wins over Atlanta and Cleveland. It was a great jump start following a seven-game losing streak but it has been stalled with their bye week and that can be a momentum killer. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South as they are just two games behind Atlanta after having split the season series while still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card. We still think this is a team going nowhere as the offense was carried by Taysom Hill against the Browns while the defense was still bad, allowing 443 yards. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 428.9 ypg in their other nine games which would be by far the worst in the league. The Rams are coming off a loss against Philadelphia at home last Sunday night in a game they trailed by just six points late in the third quarter but the Eagles ran off 17 consecutive points culminating by a 72-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles had won four of five games prior to that to get back in the division and at 5-6, it is just one game back of Seattle and Arizona and is 2-1 in the division. These are the games they cannot give away though and they only have one bad loss which was at Chicago. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Pittsburgh is coming off that snow globe loss in Cleveland to fall to 8-3 and still have a half-game lead in the AFC North with four more divisional games still to play. The Steelers defense has led the way as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and they look to get the offense going once again after two poor games although one of those was in awful conditions. They put up 28, 26, 37 and 32 points in their previous four games. This is the game it needs as after this and Cleveland again next week, they face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up as underdogs. Cincinnati has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as they have been unable to overcome an 0-3 start and now sit at 4-7 and while their season is on the line, this is again not a good matchup. The Bengals are just No. 29 in defensive EPA and that has been the issue and basically negated the season Joe Burrow is having as he is narrowly behind Lamar Jackson in QBR. The defense did have a pair of good games in mid-October but those were against Cleveland who had Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Giants. Cincinnati is 0-5 against teams ranked in the Sagarin top ten. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.6 ppg. 10* (465) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is now 7-5 on the season following a loss to Tennessee at home and while many will be backing the Texans expecting a bounce back against a bad team, we are not sure how good Houston is. The defense has been stout but the offensive has regressed to No. 21 in Net EPA. The Texans have dropped four of their last six games and this is not a big surprise as they went from last place two seasons ago to first place last season and are now doing the typical regression that teams go through when going from last to first. They are 3-3 on the road and have outscored opponents by only 1.5 ppg and are now significant road favorites in a divisional game against a team looking to wreck their season. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following a 52-6 thrashing at Detroit, the second straight game it has been held to single digits. The Jaguars will get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing those last two games so at least the offense will have a pulse once again. He had that one bad game against the Eagles but prior to that, he had five straight games with a passer rating of 89 or higher including three of 104.7, 121.5 and 119.5. The defense has been the concern but playing at home against a regressing offense is not a bad thing. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.1 ppg. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. No one wants any part of the Jets right now as they have lost two straight games following a win against Houston which snapped a five-game losing streak. They are coming off their bye week at the right time and while it has obviously been a lost season for New York, this is a team that will continue to fight following the firing of their GM. The offense has not come close to living up to expectations and that is all on Aaron Rodgers but they are still a respectable No. 17 in Offensive EPA while on the other side they are No. 18 in Defensive EPA, not horrible rankings for a team that is 3-8. New York does not turn the ball over but the defense only has eight takeaways and that has been the problem. The Jets have been unfortunate as they are No. 31 in the Luck Ratings. Seattle is coming off a pair of upset wins as it defeated San Francisco on the road and Arizona at home last week which put a temporary halt on a 1-5 run. The Seahawks are back over .500 and tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Rams just a game back so it is wide open which makes this game a big one. This is a big reason why 88 percent of the money is on the Seahawks yet the line has moved the other way. Seattle is average on both sides like New York and its Net EPA ranking of No. 17 is just one spot ahead of the Jets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (474) New York Jets

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds. We have yet to play on them and at this price we normally would not but this is the situation for the Chiefs to do what they are capable of. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo two weeks ago and barely got by Carolina last week and are now on a 0-5 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Raiders have lost seven straight games including three straight double-digit losses including both on the road against Cincinnati and Miami. They are 1-5 on the highway this season which makes their win over Baltimore back in September that much more surprising but times have changed and now they are getting their first double-digit number of the season. They remain No. 32 in Offensive EPA and will turn to Aidan O'Connell to make the start at quarterback and his career QB rating of just over 80 in 15 games including 12 starts. The Kansas City defense has not been good the last two games but they are back home where they allow 19.3 ppg in five games and this opponent is the worst of the bunch. This is atypical for us to lay but this is the time and situation to do so. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS NFL Thursday Primetime. This is a great spot for Green Bay as it has won two straight games and six of its last seven to move to 8-3 which puts it two games behind Detroit in the NFC North with one meeting remaining. That game is up next which makes this game even bigger as sitting potentially three games behind Detroit with already a loss to the Lions will likely end their chances. The offense is No. 9 in Offensive EPA and is coming off a season-high 38 points against San Francisco last week. The defense has been slightly better as the Packers are No. 8 in Defensive EPA and as mentioned in the Lions analysis, only four teams are ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and Green Bay is one of those. This is an excellent situational travel spot as well. Miami is getting a lot of buzz now after posting three straight wins but the last two were at home against non-playoff teams Las Vegas and New England. The return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has sparked the offense as the Dolphins have put up 27 points in four of his five games since he came back. Now they have to travel to Green Bay where it is expected to be frigid and Tua is 0-4 in his career in games under 40 degrees, covering just one of those. Green Bay has the rushing edge by a significant amount which can factor in big in the cold weather. The Thanksgiving favorite angle has been a thing and this is one of the spots we like with the nighttime favorite going 13-4 ATS since the inception. 10* (310) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Detroit remains atop the power rankings following its ninth straight win, a 24-6 win over Indianapolis which was the second straight game allowing just six points. Now it is back within the division as the Lions host the Bears before a pair of big games against Green Bay and Buffalo on deck. Detroit is No. 3 in Offensive EPA and No. 2 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are No. 5 in the Luck Ratings. Despite 81 percent of the money on the Lions, the line has come down from the 11.5 opener. Chicago is on a five-game losing streak but three of those were within a possession thanks to a defense that has kept them competitive. The Bears are No. 9 in Defensive EPA thanks to the passing defense that is No. 7 in EPA. They will have to deal with the Lions strong rushing game and this could be one of the final few games that we see them put out a full effort as an eighth loss could signal the end of any playoff aspiration. The offense has been a different story as they are No. 22 in EPA but quarterback Caleb Williams is coming his best game in over a month. Chicago has been on the opposite end of fortunate as it is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. While public favorites have dominated on Thanksgiving, we are not buying that in this spot. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a false favorite situation here with Baltimore being overvalued coming off a loss against the Steelers where the defense was actually pretty good. The Ravens allowed six field goals and held Pittsburgh to 303 total yards and are still a game behind them in the AFC North after the Steelers loss on Thursday. The bend do not break defense is still No. 21 in Defensive EPA including No. 28 against the pass and have a tougher matchup this week. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA at No. 15 and they have generated now four of their highest offensive outputs in their last six games. While Lamar Jackson has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 102.1 passer rating even though he has just 13 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. While the Ravens defense has been their crutch, the Chargers defense remains solid as they are No. 4 in Net EPA and this will be the second straight game for Baltimore to face a top six defense. They are still top in the NFL in Offensive Net EPA but this is a horrible spot coming off a physical divisional game and now heading out west in what cannot be a better Jim Harbaugh situation, 10* (274) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Denver is coming off a blowout win over Atlanta and if the season ended today, the Broncos would be in the playoffs behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He started his rookie season slow but he has been great in his last two games and one of those was against the Chiefs. He has another great matchup here but we are playing the numbers and the situation as they are now favored by their biggest number against a team not named Carolina. Denver is still just No. 22 in Offensive EPA so the matchup is not as great as the recent result may suggest. The Raiders have now lost six straight games and are back home following a pair of road losses at Cincinnati and Miami. They held their own in their last home game against Kansas City where they were getting 8.5 points and are now just getting less than a field goal against Denver. The stats suggest a rout but we do not see it in this spot. This game sets up so similar to our play on the Bears last week as this line opened up right around a field goal and shot up shortly after the results from Sunday so this is the overreaction line that we love to go against in a divisional game, especially getting more than that field goal at home. The Broncos were getting 92 percent of the money on Thursday and it has come down to 76 percent 24 hours later and the line has not moved back down. 10* (266) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit has moved into the top spot in most power ratings following their eighth straight win to move to 9-1 and the Lions could easily be 10-0 as in their loss against the Buccaneers, they outgained Tampa Bay 463-216. They rolled over Jacksonville last Sunday 52-6 while putting up 645 yards of offense which broke a franchise record so no one wants to get in front of this train right. We are the exception. That was the cakewalk Detroit needed following a pair of tough road wins over Green Bay and Houston and now they are back on the road with a Thanksgiving home game upcoming against the Bears. With the Lions rout, since 2003 teams that are coming off a win by five or more touchdowns and then favored by more than a field goal in their next game are 23-37 (38.3 percent). The Colts are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Jets after blowing a 13-0 lead with quarterback Anthony Richardson posting one of his best passer ratings on the season. Indianapolis is back home for just the third time since the start of October and at 5-6, it is very much alive in the AFC Wild Card. The defense has gotten a bad rap but they are ranked No. 11 in Defensive EPA and this with playing the No. 5 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Colts have covered 10 straight games against teams that have a winning percentage over .750 while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs of six or more points. 10* (252) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. As bad as the Patriots were expected to be this season, they continue to compete and play hard for head coach Jerod Mayo. They have gone 2-2 over their last four games with the two losses coming by only nine points combined and are now catching over a touchdown in a divisional game. Their season is going nowhere as far as playoffs but it is all about development. They made the move to put rookie Drake Maye in at quarterback and while he has shown his rookie mistakes, he has actually been very solid by showing a lot of poise and game management skills while posting an 87.5 passer rating. While not top level yet, his 66.7 percent completion rate is No. 15 in the league. While we are backing the Patriots for what they have been doing, this is also a fade of Miami which we feel are still overvalued after their two straight wins and three straight covers. The Dolphins are coming off a 15-point win over the Raiders but it was a five-point game late in the fourth quarter until they were able to open it up on a 57-yard touchdown pass. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed four games so that has to be taken into consideration but he has not improved the offense that much in his four games since his return as the Dolphins are averaging 17.7 yards per point which is ahead of only the Giants. Miami has covered eight straight games in this series, just another reason to fade in this spot. 10* (261) New England Patriots

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Browns did not come through for us last Sunday as a 14-14 tie was opened up in the fourth quarter with 21 unanswered points from the Saints with Taysom Hill nearly taking the game over himself. Cleveland was coming off a bye week following a home loss against the Chargers, one of the top defenses in the league but the Browns could not take advantage facing one of the worst defenses despite Jameis Winston throwing for 395 yards but they could not get the balance as they rushed for only 66 yards. It will not be easier here but the spot is a great one as it is basically the same one Pittsburgh was in last week. Cleveland has some skewed metrics on offense based on their quarterback change and the return of running back Nick Chubb but we love the home advantage with the value on a team that is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. The Steelers were able to cash for us last week against Baltimore as they pulled off the upset with an 18-16 win, kicking six field goals against one of the worst defenses at home. Now they hit the road where they are also 4-1 but in a spot where they are overvalued in a divisional game coming off a massive win to set up the short week letdown. The Pittsburgh offense was very average again last week barely eclipsing 300 yards and face a tougher defense this week on the road with the season on the line for the Browns. While Cleveland has been unlucky, the Steelers are ranked No. 3 in the Luck Ratings and despite 90 percent of the money coming in on the Steelers, the line has not moved. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Do we go public or do we go contrarian? The Cowboys are done this season obviously and no one wants a part of them after four straight losses and four straight non-covers and this is the time to jump on board in this stand alone game. Dallas is catching a touchdown and it should get to 7.5 as the juice is moving with the public going to hammer Houston with no Dak Prescott playing. We have seen a 9.5-point line swing and no quarterback is worth that, especially against a team that continues to be overhyped. Houston has dropped two straight games to fall to 6-4 following a 26-23 loss against Detroit and while it is a desperate team at this point, no six-win team should be laying this number on one the road. C.J. Stroud was the story of last season but he has regressed considerably, as he has tossed more interceptions already than he threw all of last season and has posted one passer rating of more that 64.2 in his last four games. He is facing a defense that has struggled all season but he is not with this number. We are not sure what will happen with head coach Mike McCarthy but chances are he will not be let go until the end of the season and apparently the locker room is still behind him despite media reports. We would love to wait and take them on Thanksgiving against the Giants but we have to grab them here before they go to Washington next week. This is the ugly play but we will go against the public money against a team that is just No. 14 in Net EPA. 10* (476) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Everybody is waiting for Cincinnati to turn the corner but we just do not see it happening. Teams starting 0-3 and rarely make the playoffs happens for a reason because there are flaws and the Bengals have many. Quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level with a 108.1 passer rating thanks to throwing 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions which has put Cincinnati No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA. They cannot run the ball as they are No. 29 in rushing offense and No. 26 in Rushing EPA and a one dimensional offense will not get it done here. They face one of the best defenses in the NFL as the Chargers are No. 2 in Defensive EPA including No. 2 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. They lead the league in points allowed at 13.1 ppg. Another flaw is the Bengals defense which has been a liability all season. They are ranked No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have been horrible against the run and pass and have had only two good efforts while came against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones and those two make any bad defense look good. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA and they have generated their three highest offensive outputs in their last five games. While Burrow has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 103.2 passer rating even though he has just 11 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. 10* (472) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. Revenge is an angle we like to play in certain situations but we are not playing Buffalo because of that here. The Bills lost in the playoffs last season 27-24 so all of the talk is that the Bills will be out for revenge. If Buffalo had won that playoff game, would they play any less hard this week? We know the answer to that. Despite the records, Buffalo is the better team when looking at the numbers and not the wins and that is what matters. The Bills are ranked No. 3 in Offensive EPA and while they will be down Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they still have Josh Allen and a running game that is ranked No. 2 in Rushing EPA. Kansas City moved to 9-0 after a 16-14 win over Denver thanks to a last second blocked field goal. This has been the story of the Chiefs all season as seven of their nine wins have been decided by single digits and they have been the beneficiary of some questionable calls going their way. We are not crying conspiracy but being the No. 1 ranked team in Luck Ratings does say something. The Chiefs have failed to cover three straight games, all of which they were favored by at least a touchdown and now the role is reversed and for very good reason. This is part of the reason 60 percent of the money is on Kansas City and while we know the numbers of how good Kansas City is an underdog, covering 17 of its last 18 games when getting points, we are going against that this week. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The advanced line was Green Bay -2.5 and following the Chicago disaster against New England on Sunday, the line moved up to 6 and then hit 6.5 and as of Wednesday, it came back down to 5.5 despite 69 percent of the money on the Packers and is still 5.5 despite the money moving to 72 percent on Friday. Caleb Williams was awful against the Patriots as he was constantly under pressure, went 16-30 for 120 yards and was sacked nine times. This was in large part due to both starting tackles being out. Both Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones returned to practice on Wednesday and were full participants on Friday. Unlike what many may think, this is not the worst offense in the NFL as the Bears are No. 24 in Offensive EPA, certainly not great but not what the theory is. The fact that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired can give this offense a spark as well. The Packers are coming off their bye following a loss to the Lions where Jordan Love was hampered by a groin injury so the rest is big for that but he could still not be 100 percent. Overall, the Packers are No. 14 in Offensive EPA which is nothing spectacular and they will face an underrated Bears defense. Chicago is No. 5 in Defensive EPA including No. 1 in the NFL in Passing EPA. This is an overreaction line and we are going against it and we still have this number at 3 and in a divisional game, we will grab the big home underdog. 10* (452) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. New Orleans put together its best effort since September 15 when it beat Dallas 44-19 but even that win is not looking good anymore as the Saints defeated division rival Atlanta 20-17 last week. It coincided with the firing of head coach Dennis Allen as the players rose to the occasion which is a typical reaction when a coach gets let go. We figure that is where it ends however. Even though they defeated the Falcons, the Saints were outgained 468-365 and that was their second most yards allowed and this comes as no surprise as the unit has been horrible, allowing 385.6 ypg which is No. 28 in the NFL. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 427.1 ypg in their other eight games which would be by far the worst in the league. Cleveland certainly does not bring a potent offense into this one but Jameis Winston gave them some life in his first start against Baltimore which also has one of the worst defenses in the league. Sure, he struggled mightily in his next start but that was against the Chargers which are ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA so we expect another big game from him as well as running back Nick Chubb as he faces the No. 31 ranked team in Defensive Rushing EPA. Defensively, Cleveland is no where near where they were last season but we like them against the Saints offense that is averaging 17 ppg in their last eight games. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are atop the AFC North at 7-2 and admittedly, have not played a tough schedule in doing so as it is ranked No. 29 but good teams with those games and Pittsburgh has done just that. Even with the schedule disparity, we have this one as a pickem. This is the classic game of strength against strength as Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in Offensive EPA but has had a lot of success against some poor defenses and while the Ravens did tear apart a very strong Denver defense, that was at home in the first game following their loss against the Browns. They now face a Steelers defense that is No. 7 in Defensive EPA and they have allowed 20 points or less in seven of their nine games. They did allow 27 points against Indianapolis and Washington but those were both away from home. The Pittsburgh offense was not horrible with Justin Fields at quarterback and overall it is No. 13 in Offensive EPA but it has made a big surge with Russell Wilson. They have averaged 30.3 ppg in his three starts and he has posted a 105.9 passer rating and while it is a small sample size, it is his highest rating since 2019-20. While we will not quite call the Steelers offense a strength, they are going against one of the worst defenses in Baltimore which would normally be an oxymoron but not this season as the Ravens are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. We grab the very favorable line in what we think is the better all around team. 10* (458) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Washington has been the early pleasant surprise as they are 7-3 but it has been an inconsistent stretch, beating the Bears on the Hail Mary, sneaking by the Giants and then losing to Pittsburgh last week. Their best win is against Arizona and has not defeated another team with a winning record. Maybe it took some time for teams to figure them out but now comes another test like they had in Baltimore. The Eagles got off to a slow start but have won five straight games to improve to 7-2 with one of those losses coming against Atlanta with 34 seconds remaining. Now back home following a blowout win over Dallas on the road, this is just their second home game since mid-October. The Washington offense is still ranked No. 2 in Offensive EPA including No. 2 in Dropback Rate but just No. 7 in Dropback success rate. All good still but the defense is the concern as the Commanders have been exposed against above average offenses. They are No. 24 in Defensive EPA and that is with allowing point totals of 15, 7, 13, 14 and 18. Four of those came against the Giants, Browns, Panthers and Bears, all of which are No. 23 or worse in offense. The one exception was against Arizona which is top ten and now comes a test against the Eagles which have completely turned their offense around since getting healthy. They have averaged 31.8 ppg over their last four games and despite all the big names on the injury list, all have been full participants in practice. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Rams picked up another huge win last week over Seattle and this is a team to be on the lookout for as we said last week. With the Cardinals and 49ers winning Sunday, this game is big to keep pace in the NFC West. They are 4-4 in a wide open division and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points but bring in the momentum with three straight wins and having arguably the hottest quarterback in the league. The Dolphins had their chance last week against Buffalo but found another way to lose to drop to 2-6 and the season is likely done. With the Bills winning again, Miami is five games back in the AFC East and the Wild Card situation is bleak. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought the offense back up with 27 points scored the last two weeks but the defense has regressed, now sitting No. 28 in Defensive DVOA. Now facing a healthy Rams offense, we give them no shot on the road. 10* (286) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Washington has been a great story starting 7-2 and give them credit but they have played the third easiest schedule in the league and now face the toughest defense they have seen. The Commanders have the No. 2 ranked offence in DVOA behind Jayden Daniels and his 71 percent completion percentage but has been the least pressured quarterback and now faces one of the bigger defenses in pressure and the Steelers and ranked No. 10 in Disruption Rate. We played against the Steelers two weeks ago against the Giants and were able to pull away in the second half behind Russell Wilson who had a great performance for a second straight game and has a great matchup here. The Pittsburgh defense is the difference here, no. 8 in Defensive DVOA while Washington comes in No. 26 and have faced some bad offenses. The Steelers have allowed more than 20 points only once and we see another dominating game here. 10* (267) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We won with the Buccaneers last week at Kansas City as they were able to stay within the number in an overtime loss, their third straight. This is the spot to fade as Tampa Bay is playing on a short week against a team off a bye and bringing their best player back. Give credit to Baker Mayfield who has posted a 94 passer rating or higher in his last five games, the last two with a limited receiving corps but now faces a real defense that has been undervalued. San Francisco is just 4-4 but easily the best .500 team in football as they are ranked No. 5, ahead of seven teams with six or more wins. The premier of Christian McCaffery is finally here and the way they are bringing him in now is smart and he can be a game changer. They are top seven in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA and still have a shot for the No. 1 spot in what is a weak NFC. We do not prefer to lay a big number on the road but this the exception. 10* (273) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens bounced back from their loss against the Browns with a rollover against Denver and are laying a huge number in a divisional game. They were the spot last week but are now in the opposite position this week with the number. Baltimore remains No. 2 in Net DVOA with the offense that is No. 1 but have to be concerned about the defense that is No. 14 in DVOA, one of only two teams in the NFL that is top ten overall but outside the top ten in defense. The Bengals opened the season with a bad loss against New England which started a 0-3 start but they have won three of their last four games to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Cincinnati is only a game out of the final Wild Card spot along with three other teams and this is the game it needs with two of the next three on the road as well. All of the MVP talk is around Lamar Jackson but Joe Borrow has been quietly under the radar with a 108.1 passer rating which is third in the league thanks to 20 touchdowns which is tied foe second. We played against Baltimore two weeks ago against Cleveland which was a stupid line and we have another one here. 10* (109) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Kansas City is the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and it has now won 13 straight games going back to last season but it has been far from a domination as the Chiefs have outgained their opponents by only 45 ypg over this stretch. It is hard to step in front of an undefeated train but we have to here as the number has gotten to the price of being unplayable if you are a Chiefs backer as they came into the week the No. 1 ranked team in the Luck Ratings. It is hard for a team to win by margin when they are ranked only No. 10 in both Offensive DVOA and Offensive EPA as Patrick Mahomes has done just enough to get by with his 84.9 passer rating coming in tenth lowest among qualified starters and it is the lowest of his career. Additionally, he is one of only four quarterbacks in this group that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. His 23 interceptions in the regular season since the start of last year are the most of any quarterback in the NFL. Tampa Bay suffered a pair of devastating losses two weeks ago with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going out against Baltimore and both missed last week in the loss against Atlanta. They nearly made it back from a big deficit against the Falcons but were unable to connect on the winning score in the final seconds. While the offense is shorthanded, it is the defense that has brought this team success as the Buccaneers have allowed 27 points or less in 28 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL in nearly 20 years since Baltimore did so back in 2005. Defenses keeping opponents at bay are obviously huge with the success but even more so when getting a big number like this. We are also seeing a reverse line move with 86 percent of the money on Kansas City yet the number has gone the other way. 10* (477) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Minnesota was the early season surprise in the league as it opened 5-0 straight up and against the number but has dropped its last two games, blowing a 10-0 lead to Detroit and losing to the Rams last Thursday night 30-20. The extended rest is big for the Vikings which need to win to keep pace in the NFC North with Detroit and Green Bay which square off earlier in the day. This is a good get right spot as it has been a month since their first win and have not won at home since September 22, a 34-7 win over Houston. The one concern is that the Vikings have been outgained in five straight games but three of those were a combined 31 yards so that is a skewed streak. One thing that is certain is the defense remains one of the best in the NFL, ranked No. 1 in Defensive DVOA and No. 3 in Defensive EPA. This line has come down since opening at 6.5 with a lot of that likely due to quarterback Anthony Richardson getting benched in favor of Joe Flacco and this was the smart move with Richardson possessing the worst quarterback rating in the NFL. Flacco has been solid with seven touchdowns and just one interception in his three games played but has had only one truly good all around game and that was against Jacksonville, the worst defense in the league in both DVOA and EPA. The Colts are 17 spots lower than Minnesota in Net DVOA and are walking into a tough spot and while they will be a public take based on their 6-0 ATS run, we are bucking that and going contrarian against that run as well as fading a defense that has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last three road games. 10* (466) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams came through for us last Thursday with a 30-20 upset win over Minnesota and this is a team to be on the look out for. The previous week, they picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing streak and any trade talk that was brought up two weeks ago is long gone. They are 3-4 in a wide open NFC West and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points and it all came together last week against a very good Minnesota team. The line is not ideal in a divisional game but we have this game at a pickem where it essential is as of Friday so a win gets us a push at worst. The Seahawks have been a tough team to figure out as they have lost four of their last five games after a blowout loss at home against Buffalo last week. The lone victory came at Atlanta and despite the 20-point win, they were outgained 385-399 in that game as the Seahawks have been outgained in four straight games after winning the yardage battle in their first four games which helped them get off to a 3-0 start that seems like eons ago. What does Seattle do good? Nothing in particular as it is ranked between No. 15 and No. 29 in every DVOA and EPA category and it catches the Rams at the wrong time coming off extended rest. What used to be one of the top three home field advantages in the NFL is no more and the Rams continue their turnaround here. 10* (471) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Detroit moved to 6-1 following a blowout win over Tennessee last Sunday thanks to its special teams which cannot be counted on every week. The Lions put up only 245 yards of offense because it was not needed as they played with the game flow and it was a solid win coming off a huge victory over the Vikings. Riding a five-game winning streak, the Lions now hit the road for their true outdoor environment game of the season and of course come in as the favorite. Detroit is ranked in the top ten in all DVOA and EPA categories but they have played a schedule ranked No. 22 in the league and while we are not saying this team is not good, we feel they have become the new public betting team and we are seeing that here with 61 percent of the early money coming in. The Packers survived Jacksonville last week as they kicked a 24-yard field goal as time expired to pull out the 30-27 win to make it four straight victories. They did suffer a loss with quarterback Jordan Love having to leave the game with a groin injury and while his status remains questionable, he made it back to practice on Thursday and all signs are that he will be playing. He was playing his worst game of the season prior to that but came in with a 95 or higher passer rating in his previous three games. Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup so there is value either way. When the Packers are .500 or better, they have covered seven straight games as underdogs when facing teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better and this is the spot to show they belong. With a bye week on deck, this is the opportunity to move into first place in the NFC North. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss at Detroit and while we cannot call it a misleading final, the Titans defense did its job once again as it held the Lions to a season low 225 total yards. Their offense was a liability again as they committed four turnovers but the positive was that they moved the ball with 416 total yards but they were in a no win situation especially when the special teams unit allowed 262 yards. They are back home where they are 0-3 while failing to cover any of their last three games which puts them in the contrarian play on spot. Tennessee remains No. 1 in total defense as it has now held five of its seven opponents to season-low yardage and in comes one of the worst offenses in the NFL off its biggest win of the season. The Patriots took out the rival Jets with a final minute touchdown which snapped a six-game losing streak following a season opening fluke win at Cincinnati. New England scored a season-high 25 points despite gaining only 224 yards on the offensive end and the quarterback situation remains in flux after Drake Maye having to leave the game last week with a concussion and he has been limited in practice this week. The injury report is massive on the defensive side and they just traded linebacker Joshua Uche to Kansas City further depleting the unit. The Patriots have been outgained in their last seven games and are currently No. 31 in Net DVOA and No. 28 in Net EPA as they are ranked No. 25 or worse in every DVOA and EPA category on both sides. 10* (452) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they defeated the Ravens outright which we were not expecting but it was a wire-to-wire cover and that huge divisional win presents a go against opportunity as it is a letdown spot. While there might be some positive hope, the Browns are still just 2-6 with one of the worst offenses in the NFL although it is a different unit now with Deshawn Watson finally out. Quarterback Jameis Winston gave the lifeless offense a spark as he threw for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interception. While facing the Baltimore defense normally would have been a tough task, the Ravens defense is not good this season and now Cleveland faces a Chargers defense ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive DVOA. The Chargers are coming off a win over the floundering Saints, bouncing back from a last second loss against the Cardinals. Of note, quarterback Justin Herbert looks to be fully recovered from his ankle injury and he has been given more of a green light as he has thrown the ball 34, 39 and 32 times his last three games, all season highs, and he has quietly put up a 98.2 passer rating thanks to throwing only one interception. Los Angeles has not been great on offense as a whole as it is No. 18 in DVOA and No. 22 in EPA but have had their top three performances in their last three games which coincides with Herbert airing it out more. The Browns used their defense to carry them into the playoffs last season but are a bottom half unit this season. 10* (453) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Dominator. While no one wants to bet the Jets now or anytime in the near future, we have to go against the philosophy this week with what is happening in the market. New York opened as the favorite by a point and a half and despite 82 percent of the money on Houston as of Tuesday night, the line has not moved at some spots and gone up to -2 at some others. The nonmovement or slight move up despite the money differential is telling while some of it could do with the loss of wide receiver Stefon Diggs for this game and unfortunately for Houston, the rest of the season. The Texans may be 6-2 but they are a weak 6-2 and now without their top two receivers, they are in a vulnerable public spot Thursday. The Jets season keeps getting worse following a last minute loss to the Patriots, dropping them to 2-6. The thing is, they could be 6-2 as four of their five losses during this losing streak have come down to the final minute with quarterback Aaron Rodgers not executing late in three of those. The defense is just as much to blame and they too have failed late so it has been a culmination of poor timing along with bad special teams. This should not happen to supposed good teams but their No. 16 Net EPA is right in line with the No. 14 Net EPA for Houston. We do take into account luck at this point in the season and this game has the biggest disparity of all of them this week as the Texas are the second luckiest team in the league while the Jets are the unluckiest team in the NFL so while the records are four games apart, they could easily be a lot closer. 10* (312) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Giants offense has not been good to begin with but last week was a forgettable performance as they managed only 119 total yards in their 28-3 loss to the Eagles. They have scored 10 points in their last two games combined and now hit the road to face a notoriously strong defense with a quarterback that is 1-14 in his career in primetime games. That being said, this is all being taken into account with this number and hitting the road is not necessarily a bad thing for New York as it is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Washington by just three points. One key factor is to get Malik Nabers more involved as he was limited to just four catches last week and he will be defended by cornerback Joey Porter Jr. who has surrendered 17 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown thus far this season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers are now 5-2 coming off their blowout win over the Jets as the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback did not affect the offense. He was solid in his debut but the Steelers will be out to run the ball as Pittsburgh comes into this game with 235 rush attempts on the year, the second-most in the NFL. Even with Wilson starting at QB and throwing for 264 yards last week, the Steelers still ran the ball 36 times for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants were gashed against the run last week against the Eagles but prior to that, they allowed more than 121 rushing yards in five of their first six games. in what is expected to be a low scoring game with a total set at 36, grabbing the value on the underdog is the play. 10* (291) New York Giants

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The 49ers took another hit last week as the injury list continues to grow with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk now out for the season following a 28-18 loss against Kansas City. At 3-4, San Francisco typically would be a team on the outside looking in but its division is wide open and a wake up call might have gotten taken on Thursday night with the big Rams win, a now healthy team they have already lost to. While we mentioned Philadelphia, which is 4-2, being the only team in the league in top ten in both total offense and defense, the 49ers are the only team with a losing record ranked in the top ten in every DVOA category while sitting No. 10 in Net EPA. No team has started 3-5 to make a Super Bowl and while not a must win, this will be a costly loss. Dallas is coming off its bye week after getting dismantled by the Lions in a 47-9 loss. Admittedly, their season is on the line as well and who really cares as it should not even be a story with the Cowboys being No. 23 or worse in seven of eight DVOA and EPA rankings. Overall, Dallas is No. 27 in Net EPA and No. 23 in Net DVOA. We are seeing the RLM here with this line coming down despite the early money on the Cowboys with the bye week being a possible rationale for favoring the Dallas side which we cannot buy into. While we do not take history too much into play, there is bad recent history here for the Cowboys which have lost the last three meetings with a lot of the same rosters since 2022 and it is the 49ers defense that has dominated with the Cowboys averaging only 262 ypg. 10* (290) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL following a 28-18 win over San Francisco where the 49ers were severely shorthanded once again. The Chiefs have covered their last four games and are overpriced here with the public being all over them in this spot. They retain the No. 1 spot in the Luck Rankings and we are going against them with some of it based on that as it will eventually come back to show their flaws. One of those is quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is having the season of his career with an 82.5 passer rating and has failed to throw a touchdown in two straight games and now has a 6:8 TD:INT ratio. He got a weapon he wanted with DeAndre Hopkins and despite this, we have seen the line come down despite Kansas City carrying over 60 percent of the early money. Las Vegas is coming off a loss against a beaten up Rams team at the time and that was its third straight loss. And now wide receiver Davante Adams is gone but he was out for a while anyway and it is safe to say he was part of the internal problem and it is better that he is gone. The Raiders are bottom four in the NFL in Offensive and Defensive DVOA but this is the spot to play them in a divisional game with an overreaction number against a team coming off an emotional win where they did not look good. The Raiders can take advantage of the Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends all season and Brock Bowers who has been targeted 36 times the last three games to have another big effort this week. It is ugly but it is the right side. 10* (286) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Ah Cleveland. There have been a number of disappointments in the league this season and the Browns are on the list but now we have a different team coming into this week. We never look for an injury to help a team but this is a different situation with Deshaun Watson now out for the season and it can only help this team. The Browns have lost five straight games following a 1-1 start and are the only team in the NFL to score 18 or fewer points in all of their games. The Browns are No. 32 in Offensive DVOA and No. 30 in Offensive EPA yet we are on that offense with Jameis Winston taking over which will open up this unit despite no more Amari Cooper. Running back Nick Chubb came back last week and while he looked not his normal self, that was expected after missing a year and now he has to be taken into account by a defense that has not been very good. The Ravens are ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 13 in Defensive DVOA and while the latter is better, it is taking into account teams coming from behind and failing. Baltimore has turned its season around after a 0-2 start as the Ravens have won five straight games while not losing a cover over this stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped as they lead the league overall and in rushing as the Derrick Henry signing has been the best offseason move from any team. The run they are on in non-sustainable and this is the time to go against them, coming off a short week and playing on the road again, this one against a desperate division rival with a line that has been stretch out to the max. 10* (266) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is a tough spot for Arizona which is coming off a last second win over the Chargers on Monday night to move to 3-4. The Cardinals defense held Los Angeles to five field goals so while that may say something for the defense, it was more of a portrayal of the anemic Chargers offense as Arizona is still ranked No. 26 in Defensive DVOA and No. 29 in Defensive EPA. Granted, the Cardinals have played the toughest schedule in the NFL and while now facing a 2-4 team, this will be a different looking 2-4 team and they have to travel east on a short week to play in the early time slot. While quarterback Kyler Murray has shown flashes, he has only two games with a passer rating of more than 80 in his last five games. Miami scored 20 points in its opener against Jacksonville but has failed to get past 15 points in any of its last five games. The main cause is the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Game Two against Buffalo and he has been out since then with another concussion but he will return to action this week. We can only hope he has a safe return back as he looks to be risking a lot but he is hellbent on returning to the game he loves. Even though he put up only 20 points against the Jaguars, he put up 338 yards through the air and he completely changes the dynamic of this offense. His return coming at home is going to have this team energized and we should see the Dolphins of old who should have no issues having their best game of the season. Miami has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games against teams coming off a Monday night home game. 10* (272) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Sometimes betting a team when it is down is the way to go and this is one of those spots. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead against Baltimore last Monday and then it all caved in when wide receiver Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury and the end of the game was more devastating when fellow receiver Chris Godwin was lost for the season. The only good out of this is that the Buccaneers have had a full week to get ready with a new set of pass catchers and while put him down as much as you want but Baker Mayfield is great in this system and can adjust. The overreaction is on our side as this line has flipped with the Buccaneers opening as a typical 2.5-point divisional favorite and now they are the underdog of the same number and this will hit three. The Falcons came into the season as the favorite to win the NFC South and while they are on pace and arguably in better position now, this is still not an overly good team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has given the offense life while breaking the franchise record in passing yards three weeks ago and then following it up with a good performance against a bad Carolina team and then was not good last week against the Seahawks. The Falcons are stepping into a vulnerable situation playing a team that everyone has given up on while playing only their second road game in five weeks, the lone exception being that Panthers game. Take a team when they are down early in the season when nothing is far from done and we have an overreaction line on our side coming into the next game. 10* (274) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Eagles have won two straight games against arguably two of the worst teams in the NFL which has put their schedule rank at No. 27 but now face the team that has played the easiest schedule in the league and still has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia is a team that has one of the best rosters in the league and has not come close to expectations but is the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten in both total offense and total defense and it is only a matter of time in the wide open NFC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will now be in his second straight game with his full receiving corps and is on pace for his third straight game to post a passer rating of 119 or better. No one is on this team with 84 percent of the money on the Bengals yet the line has come down which is a total take. Cincinnati is coming off two straight wins as well and coincidentally, both against the Browns and the Giants. They were not nearly as convincing as they were outgained in both of those and the Bengals have been outgained in four straight games which puts them in the spot where the 3-1 record is factoring into the line. Quarterback Joe Burrow is having a great season and is ranked No. 2 in passer rating but again, the schedule has had a lot to do with it. The fact they are 0-3 at home is putting the majority on this team but there is only one playoff team in this matchup and it is not the Bengals. Cincinnati is ranked No. 20 or worse in five of the eight DVOA and EPA categories which makes them a team that cannot be trusted against a team getting healthy at the right time. 10* (283) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Vikings suffered their first loss of the season, a two-point setback to Detroit after blowing a 10-0 lead after the first quarter. At 5-1, Minnesota has played the No. 2 ranked schedule in the NFL so give them credit for that as three of their wins have come against teams ranked No. 5, No. 7 and No. 8 in the Sagarin ratings but we are not sold on those wins. San Francisco is broken and has been killed with injuries, Houston remains a very overrated 5-2 while Green Bay was playing with Jordan Love in his first game back and was clearly rusty in the first half. The Vikings are the public play here yet the line has either not moved at all or the juice has increased on the Rams side which gives us that slight RLM value. Many will expect Minnesota to bounce back after its 5-0 start but teams are just 8-8 straight up and 6-10 ATS when coming off their first loss from Week Eight on over the last 34 years. Teams in this situation, eight favorites or underdogs and playing their next game on Thursday are 6-10 straight up and 5-11 ATS. The Rams picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing straight and are now 0-3 ATS their last three games. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points so they will be out to avoid the NFC North sweep. Los Angeles is getting healthier with key players along both sides of line back and it will see the return of wide receiver Cooper Kupp this week as well. This is a great buy low spot with a good number against a team coming off a huge emotional loss against a division rival. 10* (110) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens come in as the big public betting favorite yet we have seen the line come down as they opened at 4.5 and came down a point last Monday but it will not be surprising to see it go slightly back up once more public action comes in. Baltimore has won four straight games after starting the season 0-2 and it has been successful thanks to the best running game in the league from a yardage standpoint while sitting No. 2 in Offensive Rushing EPA. During the four-game winning streak, Baltimore faced four of the bottom nine rushing defenses and Tampa Bay is ranked better than those four opponents and are stronger now with Vita Vea back in the lineup. The Ravens passing game is not as strong since it really has not been needed for the most part and has the advantage against the Tampa Bay passing defense however the Buccaneers are a top ten unit in Pressure % and Hurry %. The Buccaneers own offense is a potent unit as well and can exploit the Ravens weaknesses on defense, namely their outside coverage. Overall, Tampa Bay is No. 8 in Total Offense and No. 9 in Offensive EPA following three strong games, scoring 33, 30 and 51 points with the middle score being the only game they lost, a 36-30 setback in overtime against Atlanta. While Lamar Jackson is playing like and MVP once again, Baker Mayfield has fit very well into this system and is posting a career high 109.4 passer rating which is No. 3 in the league behind Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. We are over the key number which is above the Jackson threshold of dominating as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. 10* (476) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We could call this a revenge spot for the 49ers but this is more than that with this going against a 5-0 Kansas City team that could have a losing record at this point. The Chiefs first three wins came down to the final seconds, the win over Chargers was from a 10-0 deficit and the win over New Orleans two weeks ago was aided by Derek Carr leaving the game early. This is the prime Patrick Mahomes spot where he has thrived as an underdog which is where the public is already riding and the number has barely moved. They were able to catch Baltimore in Week One which was ideal with the Ravens coming in still looking to get their new roster together. San Francisco is only 3-3 which is a reason the line is short with no public backing. Two of the losses have come against division rivals Los Angeles and Arizonia which were two games they should have won and the other defeat was their first road game at Minnesota after a short week after the victory over the Jets. Despite the .500 record, the 49ers are rated high at No. 5 in Net EPA behind the offense that has been crushed with injuries and is still No. 6 in Offensive EPA with role players picking it up and quarterback Brock Purdy still being an underrated commodity. 10* (472) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We had the Eagles in this spot last Sunday which was the right side but a blocked field goal for a touchdown prevented the cover and this week we are grabbing Buffalo in a blowout situation. The Bills were fortunate to come out of New York with the victory over the Jets in a game plagued with penalties and a cleaner game heavily favors Buffalo. The addition of Amari Cooper is not the reason for this side, although it cannot hurt, as the Bills are finally back home following a three-game roadtrip where they ended up 1-2. With a game at Seattle on deck, there is no chance for a lookahead as this is the game to focus on after Buffalo falling from No. 2 to No. 5 in Net EPA. The Titans were a big disappointment last week, falling at home 20-17 against Indianapolis, as Will Levis did Will Levis things. He completed 16 passes for only 95 yards and had a late costly interception. We banked on the Tennessee defense which did its job by allowing only 269 yards but the offense showed why this is a fade team going forward. The Titans are No. 27 in Offensive EPA and No. 28 in Offensive DVOA and while their defense has made their Net rankings better, this is not the offense to face now with Buffalo getting back two big pieces plus showing running back Ray Davis is another weapon. 10* (456) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Everyone is so off of Cleveland at this point, coming off four straight losses including defeats in three straight road games. The trade of Amari Cooper shows they are selling and the line has moved with that as this game opened at 3.5 and is up to 6 in most places with 84 percent of the money riding on the Bengals. This is the ideal buy low contrarian spot whose offense just got rid of a big weapon while not scoring more than 18 points in any of their first six games but coming in as a divisional underdog of more than a field goal is always an appealing take. That offense will have Nick Chubb back in the lineup while the defense is still in the top half of the league in EPA. The Bengals are coming off a win in New York against the Giants to improve to 2-1 on the road and 2-4 overall. They have been outgained in their last three games and despite allowing just seven points last week, Cincinnati is still ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 22 in Defensive DVOA which gives the Cleveland offense an opportunity to break that 20-point barrier. The offense was held to just over 300 yards against the Giants and 47 of the 304 total yards came on a fluke touchdown run from Joe Burrow who has faced four straight teams with defense ranked No. 19 or worse in Defensive EPA. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

This is play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We are still bullish against Houston as it is an overrated 5-1 that could easily be 3-3 or even 2-4 as wins over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Buffalo were all by four points or less and could have swung to the other side. The metrics back this up as the Texans are ranked No. 14 in Net EPA which is the lowest ranking for any team with a winning record, let alone a team that is 5-1. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is backing up a solid rookie season with another good one but is just one interception short from his total picks from all of last season and now faces his second biggest road test of the season, the first being a 34-7 loss in Minnesota. Green Bay jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Arizona and never looked back to improve to 4-2 and yet are still undervalued in the NFC North which has become the best division in football. The Packers have done this without quarterback Jordan Love for two games after getting injured in the series opener against the Eagles and after a rusty first half against Minnesota in his first game back, he is playing at an elite level. This is a good spot with it facing Jacksonville next week so certainly no lookahead and the majority of the money is on Houston despite the line hitting 3. 10* (460) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Minnesota is coming off its bye week following a win against the Jets across the pond which sets up a good spot here in a normal situation but we are still not clear how good this team really is. The metrics have them as the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL but who have they faced? Yes, Houston, which is still overrated and a San Francisco team that came in banged up and now the Vikings return home with a perfect 5-0 ATS record which we love to fade. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been in the MVP conversation talk yet is leading an offense that is No. 17 in Offensive EPA and No. 18 in Offensive DVOA. Detroit is coming off another dominating performance as it rolled over Dallas 47-9. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball even against the top ranked defense in regard to EPA. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball but Detroit moved to No. 4 in Defensive EPA and even with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, it is not that big against an overrated Darnold. This was our preseason Super Bowl team and we feel they are trending in that direction. 10* (463) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. How bad have the Saints become? Their 91 points scored in their first two games were tied for the third most since the NFL merger and those other three teams finished the season a combined 36-8 with none having more than three losses and the 2024 Saints are now 2-4 so the drastic regression has been historical and there are no signs of improving. The Saints came into last week No. 8 in Defensive DVOA and have fallen to No. 14 after the dismal performance last week and have gone from No. 4 to No. 11 in Net DVOA. New Orleans has a better matchup for its defense this week but it will not be enough to make up for an offense that has problems all over the place. The Saints have the second worst offensive line in the NFL which will be an issue for quarterback Spencer Rattler who had a rough first start as his 243 yards passing were a façade as he threw two interceptions while completing 55 percent of his passes and posted a 60.7 passer rating. Now it has been officially ruled that he will be without his top two receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed while Taysom Hill is doubtful. The Broncos had their three-game winning streak snapped against the Chargers last week as they fell behind 23-0 and tried to make it interesting with 16 fourth quarter points but ran out of time. The offense could get nothing going against the No. 3 ranked Chargers defense in DVOA but have a much easier matchup this week. Quarterback Bo Nix struggled in the rain against the Jets but his other three starts over his last four games have resulted in passer ratings of 85.0, 117.2 and 84.9. Defensively, the Broncos come in No. 7 in DVOA with a high pressure rate that should totally smother the Saints offense. 10* (311) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This is a matchup of strength against strength when it comes to the Bills having the ball. They are No. 3 in Offensive EPA, trailing only Washington and Baltimore heading into Week Six but they have struggled the last two weeks and now have their biggest test. The Ravens came into the week ranked No. 22 in Defensive Efficiency while the Texans came in No. 16 and now Buffalo faces a Jets defense ranked No. 4. New York allowed 23 points but one of the touchdowns was from the defense while the 253 yards allowed to Minnesota was easily a season low for the Vikings. Bills quarterback is listed on the injury report but with a left hand and ankle injury and not for the concussion that he likely received last week but not reported so we will see how that pans out. Additionally, running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir are both limited as questionable being limited in practice. The Jets struggled on offense in London but they played against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA and they now face a Buffalo defense ranked No. 15 in EPA and continue to be banged up with injuries. With a new play caller, we should see quarterback Aaron Rodgers have the offense opened up more. Also, Buffalo is second to last against the run. It is no coincidence that the last two Buffalo losses have come against the two best teams they have faced and both were on the road. This marks their third straight road game which could be an edge in the fact they have lost the last two which puts them in a desperate position but it is New York with the bigger intangible after head coach Robert Saleh was fired which puts the players in a good position to prove some things. 10* (288) New York Jets

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Dallas is coming off a fortunate win over Pittsburgh as it had to rally twice in the fourth quarter, culminating with a winning touchdown with just 20 seconds remaining. To their credit, the Cowboys outgained the Steelers 445-226 but the offense sputtered in the redzone and they committed three turnovers. They improved to 3-0 on the road but remain winless at home at 0-2 with losses coming against the Saints and Ravens. They have a much more difficult matchup this week as their defense will not be facing inept rushing and passing offenses. Dallas will again be without linebacker Micah Parsons and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence which is not ideal going up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The secondary is also banged up but cornerback Daron Bland is set to return. Detroit is coming off its bye week following a win over Seattle where it improved to 3-1 on the season. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball as Detroit is No. 12 in Defensive EPA which is certainly far from horrible and they are equally good against the run and pass so it is not a concern for us. The Lions will bring pressure against a bad offensive line and while Dak Prescott has the ability to put up big numbers like he did last week, his lack of execution is the downfall. Dallas will have the emotional edge of being back home but they are at a disadvantage in all other aspects. 10* (283) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chargers opened the season 2-0 although those wins were against Las Vegas and Carolina and they then dropped their next two games at Pittsburgh and at home against Kansas City. The bye week came at the best time with a chance to work on the offense that has fallen to No. 24 in Offensive EPA and give quarterback Justin Herbert an extra week to rest his ankle. He has not looked good in the new Jim Harbaugh offense but some of the issues can be attributed to the offensive line that has been banged up. They were without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against the Chiefs but both practiced this week and should be able to return. The Chargers are tied with Minnesota at No. 1 in Defensive EPA and have an excellent matchup in this spot. Denver has surprisingly won three straight games after opening the season 0-2. The Broncos rolled over an unfocused Tampa Bay team and should have lost against the Jets which missed a game winning field goal late while taking out an injury plagued Raiders team last week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had his struggles and the Broncos come in tied for No. 27 in Offensive Passing EPA which puts him in another tough situation. Additionally, the Broncos will be without center Luke Wattenberg and tackle Alex Palczewski which is bad news against the Los Angeles defense. The Chargers defense was short-handed against Kansas City as well with safety Dewin James serving a one game suspension and linebacker Joey Bosa out with a hip injury but they will return this week. 10* (277) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville which snapped a two-game winning streak but did get the cover based on the closing line to make it three straight winners against the number. The challenge will be more difficult this week however. Indianapolis hopes to get quarterback Anthony Richardson back but we still do not know if he will go as he will be a gametime decision which means Joe Flacco could get his second straight start after having a monster game against the Jaguars. Now the Colts go from playing the No. 32 ranked team in Defensive EPA to the No. 6 ranked team in Defensive EPA and the Titans lead the league in total defense and passing defense. Indianapolis will be without running back Jonathan Taylor so a second straight week. Tennessee is coming off its bye week following its first win of the season at Miami 31-12. While the Titans are just 1-3, they have won the stats in three games, outgaining the Bears and the Jets in their first two games. This is mostly in part to its stout defense as the offense does remain a concern. There are injury issues at quarterback here as well with Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury which could force a Mason Rudolph start. Rudolph did not put up huge numbers against the Dolphins but he managed the game well and protected the football and whichever quarterback gets the nod, they will be facing a Colts defense that made Trevor Lawrence look like an All Pro and one that is ranked No. 28 in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is coming off a pair of home wins including a huge 23-20 victory last week against Buffalo as it kicked a 59-yard field goal as time expired. The Texans are now 4-1 on the season but they are one of the worst winning teams in the league as they come in Ranked No. 17 in Net EPA. The defense has been slightly better than the offense, No. 17 compared to No. 20 but clearly there is no dominant strength on either side. Both sides are dinged up with the offensive line likely to be down at least one starter and running back Joe Mixon is still hobbled with an ankle injury. The Texans are tied for No. 11 in Defensive Passing EPA but the bad news is that they will be without two starters in the secondary as safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter have been ruled out. The Patriots look to present a good matchup for Houston as their offense is tied for No. 27 in Offensive EPA and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out with a foot injury. What makes this the spot to play on New England as it is making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye making his first start. Houston will have had a tough time game planning for him with nothing to look at and while Maye will likely see a lot of pressure, he has the scrambling ability to counter that. We are getting the line movement we were looking for even though it has gone against us, coming down to 6.5 points in some places but this is with 84 percent of the money coming in on the Texans, giving us the RLM. 10* (270) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This could be considered a make or break game for both teams as Cleveland cannot afford to fall to 1-5 while the Eagles will fall under .500 with a loss. This being said, the Eagles have significant edges all over the place which is a reason this line steamed up early in the week. Philadelphia is coming off a loss at Tampa Bay in its last game but injuries played a big factor in that with receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith sidelined along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. All three will be back on the field following their bye week and this will be the first home game for Philadelphia in a month. The offense will have a chance to finally break out even though they are still tied for No. 9 in Offensive EPA despite the recent scoring struggles and injuries. While the Eagles are back home, the Browns are playing their third straight road game with the first two being disastrous against the Raiders and Commanders. Cleveland is now 1-4 with the lone win coming against Jacksonville that easily could have been a loss. The Browns relied on their top ranked defense last season but they are just No. 14 in Defensive EPA this year and it is clear that Myles Garrett is not right and this is a game where Jalen Hurts can thrive. The bigger issue for Cleveland is the offense, namely quarterback Deshawn Watson who looks lost. The Browns are ahead of only Tennessee and Carolina in Offensive Passing EPA and while the running game is better, it is not by much as they are No. 20 in Offensive Rushing EPA. This certainly is blowout potential. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This number opened at 3.5 and has not moved all week with the majority of the action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco is off to a 2-3 start following a loss against Arizona and it hits the road where it has dropped both games at Minnesota and Los Angeles with the two wins coming against the Jets, that just fired their coach, and the Patriots, arguably the worst team in the AFC. They have fallen to No. 8 in Net EPA and No. 9 in Total DVOA and injuries remain an issue as they hit the road following two straight home games and playing on a short week. Seattle has had a strange couple weeks as it dominated Detroit and lost and followed that up losing the time of possession against the Giants by nearly a full quarter as it ran the ball only 11 times. This is not the gameplan to have success with one of the top running backs in the league in Kenneth Walker after having only five carries last week and Seattle has now lost 10 of 16 games when he gets fewer than 10 carries while going 15-8 in 23 games when he carries the ball 10 or more times. Despite the two recent losses, Seattle is ranked ahead of the 49ers in Total DVOA as No. 8 with an offense that is ranked No. 6. While the defense is not at that same level, they have improved under new head coach Mike McDonald, as they are No. 13 in DVOA this season compared to No. 28 last year. The Seahawks are 25-14-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season. 10* (106) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Chiefs came away with another come-from-behind victory as they came back from a 10-0 deficit against the Chargers and scored 17 unanswered points for the 17-0 victory to move to 4-0. The only game they have not trailed in was the season opener against Baltimore and they have been behind in the second half in each of their last three games but found ways to remain undefeated. Kansas City suffered a huge loss with Rashee Rice injuring his knee and while the timetable for his absence is unknown, he will be missed here as the No. 1 target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The offense has regressed its point production in each of the last four games and the Chiefs come in ranked No. 10 in Offensive DVOA and No. 11 in Offensive EPA and square off against what has been an elite defense with the Saints coming in No. 2 in Defensive DVOA and No. 6 in Defensive EPA. The Saints are coming off a last second loss against Atlanta which was their second straight loss, coming by a combined four points, following a 2-0 start outscoring Carolina and Dallas 91-29. New Orleans could easily be 4-0 and that is reflected with their No. 1 overall EPA ranking. Despite two straight subpar efforts, the offense is No. 9 in DVOA and No. 4 in EPA and while the offensive line was depleted last week, they still registered 366 total yards against the Falcons which have a very comparable defense with that of Kansas City. Chris Jones is the best defensive lineman in the game and can create havoc but New Orleans has been solid against pressure despite the injuries. The Chiefs are overvalued again as the metric numbers have this as a -3 spread yet the line has climbed to -5.5 after sitting at -4.5 Wednesday. 10* (475) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay got the good news last week as it welcomed quarterback Jordan Love back after missing two games but the bad news is that he was clearly rusty and the defense did him no favors as the Packers fell behind 28-0 in an eventual 31-29 loss to the Vikings. Love was able to spread the ball around and he threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions and that will get cleaned up this week. Green Bay faced a very good Vikings defense and were eventually able to find their way and despite Love out for two games, the Packers are No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and No. 10 in Offensive EPA. Now they face a Rams defense that is No. 31 in Defensive DVOA and No. 32 in Defensive EPA and they have struggled against both the pass and run so expect more balance from Green Bay after last week having to shift to a mostly passing attack. The Rams are fortunate not to be 0-4 as they were able to pick up a near miracle win against the 49ers where their win probability at one point late in the game was at five percent. 13 of their 27 points against the 49ers came in the fourth quarter and this has been the story all season as Los Angeles has scored a total of 40 points in the first three quarters while scoring 32 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have crushed the offense and while the wide receivers have been the story, the offensive line has been devasted as well with three starters on IR. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out and the offense has dipped to second half of the league in DVOA and EPA. While the Rams are No. 8 in Offensive rushing EPA, they face a Green Bay defense that is No. 4 in Defensive Rushing EPA. 10* (469) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season and it was not even close as the Bills were dominated from the start and that was a loss that can actually help going forward. This will be their second straight road game but have the ideal situation coming off an embarrassing stand alone game loss and now finally playing their first 1:00 game of the season. Buffalo is ranked in the top five in both Offensive DVOA and EPA and face a Texans defense that is ranked No. 17 in Defensive EPA so we ae expecting a big bounce back from the offense that scored only 10 points last week. The 12 first downs generated were the fewest for a Buffalo team in five years. Houston has not been impressive in its 3-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by while needing a late score last week to get past Jacksonville. Stroud did have a solid game but that was against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA and second to last in EPA. Despite the Bills injuries and suspensions, the Texans take a big step up. Buffalo was torched on defense against the Ravens but are still a respectable No. 10 in Defensive DVOA and in the only other two games they have faced a defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA, they managed 26 combined points. Early money has poured in on Buffalo yet the line has not moved and that is certainly telling. 10* (457) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville came through with the cover but failed to pick up the win as it could not hold the lead it got halfway through the third quarter, allowing a touchdown with 18 seconds left to remain the only winless team in the NFL. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, then they ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo before another game last week they could have won. The offense has gotten the blame but they are No. 21 in Offensive DVOA which is far from great but hardly horrible and they will be facing an average defense this week as the Colts are No. 17 in Defensive DVOA as their best two games were against the Packers without Jordan Love and still lost and against Bears rookie Caleb Williams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts and is 20-34 in his career and he is coming off a mistake free game with another great chance to break that streak. The Colts defeated the Steelers last week to make it two straight wins but they suffered two big blows. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game with a hip injury putting this game in question although there is optimism he will play. If not, it will be Joe Flacco and at this point, there is no difference in the betting market and who will lead this team. The bigger injury was the ankle sprain of Jonathan Taylor who has not practiced. He is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 349 yards and they will not bring him back early after suffering the same injury last season and came back too early as he reaggravated it. The Jaguars defense has been the real issue as they are No. 32 in Defensive DVOA but that is due to the last two games as they played solid the first two against a comparable offense. 10* (460) Jacksonville Jaguars