Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Panthers -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Both teams are off impressive victories. Playing at home, I expect the Panthers to be the team which follows it up with another victory. While Washington has very little hope in the NFC East, the Panthers are right in the thick of things in the NFC South. That said, they can't afford to squander a home game against a losing team like Washington. The Football team has lost its last two road games by seven and 14 points. The Panthers won by seven, at Washington, last season. Carolina has a 35:36 to 24:24 advantage in time of possession. I see the Panthers pulling away for another win and cover Sunday afternoon. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Packers have been on a great roll at the betting window. I expect it to come to an end this afternoon though. The Vikings have also been playing well. They've only split their last four games but three of those were on the road and all were against tough opponents. They easily could have won all. In fact, all five of the Vikings' losses have been by seven or fewer points and four of those were by four or less. Indeed, the Vikings could easily have a better record. That said, they know they desperately need this game. They're 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. Note that the underdog is 9-4 ATS the last 13 meetings between these teams. The Vikings have won five of the past eight meetings, outright. I say they did deep and get it done. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 54 | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CSU/Hawaii OVER the total. These teams have a history of playing high-scoring games. Both teams will see this as a winnable game and a chance for their offense to "get healthy. I expect the high-scoring trend to continue this evening. Five meetings since 2012 have had O/U lines of 52, 58, 57.5, 64.5 and 58. None of them proved high enough. The games had final combined scores of 69, 63, 71, 72 and 78. The most recent was the 78 point game and the most recent here at Hawaii was the 72 game. The Rams have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. Including those results, the OVER is now 4-0 their last four in November. While the Warriors last two games finished below the total, their previous two both finished in the 80s. Neither defense is playing well. The Warriors gave up 465 yards last game The Rams defense has given up 986 total yards its last two games. With both teams essentially playing only for pride, there's no need to "play it safe." Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | UAB +6 v. UTSA | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 53.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/BC OVER the total. These teams had an O/U line of 64.5 when they last met. That wasn't enough as they combined for 69 points. Saturday's O/U is considerably lower. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Boston College offense came to life in a big way last week. The Eagles combined with Georgia Tech for 71 points, scoring 41 themselves. The Seminoles, meanwhile, combined with Miami for 59 points. Off that 31-28 win, they've now allowed a minimum of 28 points in three straight games. Note that the Noles have seen the OVER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were off a victory. Yet, its the Eagles which are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 11-2 the last 13 times that BC was listed as a home favorite. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Southern Miss +15.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Needless to say, the Golden Eagles have had a disappointing season. They haven't won in a game since September. That said, this game provides hope as the LA Tech defense is terrible. The Bulldogs give up 33.8 ppg and 448.9 ypg. They've won three games but none of those wins came by more than 10 points. They're 1-4 ATS their last five as favorites. They ultimately lost by 10. However, the Golden Eagles were tied with UTSA, a team which now has a 10-0 record, entering the fourth quarter of last week's game. A closer look reveals that USM had a dominating 37.14 to 22.46 edge in time of possession. While the Bulldogs are off a win and cover, they're 0-4 ATS their last four, when off an ATS victory. Last year's game was decided by a single point (31-30 LT) and the past five meetings have all been decided by 15 or less. The underdog is 5-1 ATS the last six in the series. Grab the points and look for this one to prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 48 | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NE/Atlanta UNDER the total. These obviously aren't the same teams which faced each other in the Super Bowl a few years back. You probably remember that one. The Falcons had a seemingly insurmountable (28-3) lead only to see Brady and the Patriots come all the way back to win. That's all ancient history though. In my opinion, tonight's O/U line is generously high. The Patriots have been playing very stingy defense of late. They allowed seven points last game and six the previous week. Off those games, the NE defense will be licking its chops to face a depleted Atlanta offense which managed only three points last week. I do expect the Falcons defense to show some pride and bounce back with a better effort though. The Pats are going to run the ball, a lot. That'll help to chew up the clock. The UNDER is 12-2 the last 14, when the Pats played a road game against a team with a losing home record. These teams have met once since the SB and that meeting finished with 30 points. Expect another low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 6-0 Atlanta's last six Thursday games. |
|||||||
11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. This is a fairly high total. It's nearly as high as last night's O/U line between the Chiefs and the Raiders. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I'll make the comparison to the SNF again. The Chiefs and Raiders had seen their two 2020 games produce 66 and 72 points. Two very high-scoring games. On the other hand, the Rams and 49'ers saw their two 2020 games produce 43 and 40 points. The Rams managed only 16 points in losing their last game. Prior to giving up 28 in that game, they'd allowed 22 or fewer points in four straight games, an average of just 17. As for the 28 points allowed against the Titans, a closer look reveals that LA actually held the Titans to a mere 194 total yards, 125 through the air and 69 on the ground. Stafford threw two INTs, one which was taken back for a TD. In other words, the defense still played well. The 49'ers, meanwhile, have scored 21 or fewer points in four of their last five. In their last two home games, they managed 17 and 18 points. I see them having trouble scoring again tonight. The UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Rams allowed less than 250 yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV OVER the total. With the Raiders off a low-scoring game and the Chiefs off a few low-scoring games, we're working with a relatively low O/U number on Sunday night. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that the last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 56.5. Yet, that wasn't nearly enough. The teams combined for 66. The previous meeting was even higher-scoring. The O/U line was 54.5 and the teams combined for 72. The Chiefs are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 10-0 the last 10 times that the Raiders were home underdogs. The only time that the Raiders were home underdogs this season, they combined with the Raiders for 60 points. Expect the offenses to come back to life and another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Buffalo/NY UNDER the total. The Jets have been on an 'over' streak. Those results have helped to provide us with a relatively high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Bills have one of the very best defenses in football. The best, in fact. They allow fewer points and fewer yards than any team in the league. They've allowed just 20 combined points the last two games. The offense doesn't always click though, as they scored only six points last game. The Jets know all about that. Even with some better numbers lately, they still average just 18 ppg, which ranks 27th in the league. The last four meetings all finished with 44 or fewer points. Scores were 18-10, 27-17, 13-6 and 17-16. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 5-0 the last five times that the Bills faced a team with a losing record. |
|||||||
11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas A&M and Ole Miss OVER the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 62 or greater. A look at this season's Ole Miss games shows that the lowest O/U line was 66.5. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number Saturday and I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While the Aggies got into a low scoring game vs. Auburn last week, they'd scored 44, 35 and 41 points in their previous three. These teams combined for 745 yards of offense last season after compiling 944 the previous year. The previous year they had 782 yards and the year before that they combined for 832. Expect both teams to have success moving the football, the final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-13-21 | Stanford +13 v. Oregon State | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
|||||||
11-13-21 | Boston College v. Georgia Tech OVER 53 | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 97 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BC/GT OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and finished with 75 points. The Eagles scored of those. I expect them to have another big day on offense. Boston College has faced some fairly stingy defenses recently. This isn't one of them. In their last five games, the Jackets have allowed 52, 27, 48, 26 and 33 points. Georgia Tech can score though. The Jackets have scored 30 or more in three of their past four and they've scored 40 or more three times this season. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that GT played in November and I expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers are 2-7 and haven't won in weeks. Yet, they're favored over a 4-5 Rutgers team which is still hoping to become bowl eligible. That may make the underdog seem appealing. However, Indiana is favored for good reason. The Knights are an even bigger mess than Indiana, physically and mentally. Last week, they were hammered by a score of 52-3. Don't expect the Hoosiers to feel sorry for them. They're a team which has been also been beaten up and they know that this is their chance to salvage some pride. The Hoosiers have thrived in this role over the years, as they're 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In fact, the Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS their last nine as a home favorite overall. They won by 16, at Rutgers, last season. The previous season, the Hoosiers won 35-0. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 in November. |
|||||||
11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. |
|||||||
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Miami UNDER the total. A look at the last 10 meetings between these teams shows that this O/U line is higher than the O/U lines for any of those games. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Ravens run the ball 32.4 times per game. That's more than any team in the league. All those running plays tend to keep the clock moving. The Ravens last four games have been at home. They're finally back on the road for this one though. Their last two road games had scores of 23-7 and 19-17. Overall, their road games are averaging 42 points. That's significantly less than their home games. Miami, meanwhile, has seen its home games average 40.8 points on the season. The Dolphins last two games had scores of 17-9 and 26-11. While the Ravens are off a high-scoring game, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off a game where they scored more than 30 points. Look for those stats to improve Thursday night. |
|||||||
11-11-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
11-10-21 | Ball State -130 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Huskies dominated the Cardinals from 2012 - 2018. They won (and covered) seven straight meetings. However, things chanced in 2019. The Cardinals have now beaten the Huskies each of the past two seasons. I expect them to make it three in a row this evening. Ball State has the better defense in this game. The Cardinals allow 27.6 ppg. The Huskies allow 33.8. While the defensive passing stats are similar, Ball State is better at stopping the run. The Cardinals allow teams to gain 154 rushing yards per game. NIU allows more than 200. The Huskies are off a tough loss. The Cardinals, who have had an extra day of rest, are off a victory. They've won four of their last five and are 3-0 on the road, during that stretch. Expect them to keep on rolling for another day. |
|||||||
11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. |
|||||||
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Pittsburgh OVER the total. This O/U line is lower than any of the O/U lines on the entire Sunday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. We tend to think of the Bears as a strong defensive team. However, the defense has hardly been dominant of late. Chicago allowed 33 points last game and 38 points the previous week. After allowing 408 yards two weeks ago, last week, the Bears allowed a total of 467 yards. While the Steelers are off a low-scoring game at Cleveland, their last two home games finished with combined scores of 43 and 46. While b2b Chicago games have finished above the 40 point mark, the Steelers have seen three of four finish with more than 40. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -6 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 153 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA RAMS. While the Titans have been rolling, I expect the Rams to provide them with a dose of reality. This will always going to be a very tough game. When news broke Monday morning about Henry being out, it got much tougher. While I'm generally of the mind that one running back is pretty much the same as another, there are obvious exceptions. Henry is one of those. The Titans will miss him. Again, this was going to be a tough game even with him though. The Titans left it all on the field in a divisional battle last week. They're now playing their second straight on the road. Prior to that, they'd had huge games against the Chiefs and Bills. I expect it all to catch up with them. The Rams are off a relatively "relaxing" 38-22 blowout of Houston. Prior to that, they'd faced the Lions and Giants. While the Titans are weary from all their battles, after facing all those losing teams, the Rams are itching to finally have one. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10, when facing a team with a winning record, in the second half of the season. Statement win and cover for the Rams. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Off a hard-fought win on the West Coast and now playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone, I feel that this will be a tough spot for the Patriots. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams from the AFC. While they're off b2b road games of their own, both were in the Eastern Time Zone. They've had a number of close losses and are arguably better than their record suggests. Off a victory at Atlanta, they bring some much needed positive momentum into this week's game. Remember, this is a team which hammered them Saints here and which nearly won, at Dallas. Carolina allowed just 82 rushing yards last week. New England allowed roughly twice as many, giving up 163. While the Pats are 0-4 ATS their last four after allowing 150 or more rushing yards, the Panthers are 4-0 ATS their last four, after allowing 150 or fewer rushing yards. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 46 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Clemson/Louisville OVER the total. This is a relatively low O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. I felt fortunate to cash my 'over' ticket in last week's Clemson game. If you saw the final play, you'll know what I'm talking about. Still, Clemson was moving the ball. I expect the Tigers to have success against a Cardinal defense which gave up 28 points last week and which has allowed 34 or more points four times. Consider that the last four meetings between these teams all had O/U lines in the 60s. Now, we've got one in the 40s. Those four games had combined scores of 78, 68, 93 and 55. All four of those games would have finished above this evening's low number. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Cardinals were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. The Monarchs are off an upset win. The Panthers are off a blowout loss. Yet, the Panthers match up well against this team. I see them scoring the upset and earning their first FBS victory since 2019. Last week was the low point, rock bottom. That was on the road though and ODU isn't nearly the team that Marshall is. The Monarchs are 0-10 on the road the past few seasons. Yet, they're laying points here. Off a rare conference win, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Penn State v. Maryland +10.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are on an ugly 4-game slide. However, I expect them to right the ship this afternoon. I believe that the Cowboys are catching the Rams, who have lost b2b games of their own, at the right time. While they ultimately came up short, the Cowboys' offense, including the ground game, was solid at San Jose State last week. They ran for 272 yards and had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. A similar formula will serve them well this afternoon. While they lost at CSU last season, the Cowboys are still 4-1 ATS the past five meetings. They won by 10 here in 2019. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Flames only previous game against an SEC opponent resulted in a 53-0 loss. This one won't be nearly as lopsided. However, in the end, I expect another double-digit victory for the SEC team. While Liberty has a strong team again this season, this is also a very talented Rebels team. Ole Miss has only lost twice. Both losses were on the road. Both came in the state of Alabama. The Rebels have beaten the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU. They're 5-0 here and four of the victories were by 14 or more points. Despite having played a very weak schedule, the Flames already have a loss. They lost outright as 32 point favorite. Favored by more than 20 points in each of their last four games and with UAB being their toughest opponent, the Flames haven't faced anything near the type of talent they'll see here. The Rebels have thrived as favorites. Expect them to pull away for a convinving victory. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -130 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNC. Needless to say, the undefeated Deacons are having a great season. The Tar Heels are favored for a reason though. I expect them to hand their guests their first loss. Note that the home team has dominated in recent meetings. Forget all the talk about this being a non-conference game. UNC needs a win and is highly motivated to spoil Wake's undefeated year. A win here will right a lot of wrongs. Wake won by six, while playing at home, in 2019. However, UNC won by six here last season. Expect more of the same this afternoon, as the Heels put it all together with their most complete game of the season. |
|||||||
11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on VTech/BC OVER the total. These teams combined for 54 points last year. The O/U line was 62. In 2018 and 2019, the games between these teams also both produced greater than 50 points. They had combined scores of 52 at VT and 63, here at Boston College. Those O/U lines were 56.5 and 57. Tonight, we're working with a considerably lower O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Admittedly, the Boston College offense has struggled. That's a big reason why we've got the low O/U number. There's more talent here than those recent numbers suggest. They struggled against NC State in their last game here but in their previous home game, the Eagles dropped 41 points on Missouri. That was one of three games this season where BC has scored more than 40. An ESPN home game provides the opportunity for the offense to show the world that it can still move the ball. I expect the players to seize that opportunity. Remember, VT has allowed 28 or more points in three of its past four, including 41 to Syracuse. Stopping the Hokies may be a different matter though. The Eagles have allowed 28 or more points four different times this season. Look for both teams to have some success on offense and for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that The Hokies were road favorites. |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Jets/Colts UNDER the total. Both these teams are off high-scoring games. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to too high. The Colts got into a shootout with the Titans. That's been happening with a lot of recent Tennessee games though. The Colts held their previous two opponents to 18 and 3 points. They have the 12th most rushing attempts per game in the league and they'd love to pound away on the ground in this one. That'll help to chew up the clock. While I was thrilled that they came through for me last week, the Jets are still only averaging 16.3 ppg. That number dips to 11.8 ppg when they're on the road. They managed only seven points in a game here last season. With the Jets winless on the road, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Colts hosted a team with a losing road record. Look for those stats to improve and for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 67 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -121 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/WMU UNDER the total. We were reminded last night that these MAC games can get high-scoring. We're working with a very high O/U line for this one though. In fact, I looked at the O/U lines from that past 10 meetings between these teams and this one is considerably higher than any of them. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Broncos managed just 15 points against Toledo last time out, a 34-15 loss. That same Toledo team, which limited WMU, just gave up 52 points (to EMU) last night. The Broncos have now scored 28 or less in seven of their eight games, 24 or less in six of those. The Chippewas are off a very high-scoring game last time out. However, their previous three games had all finished below the total and their previous four games all finished with 58 or fewer combined points. Note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they threw for 280 or more yards in their previous game. While last year's game at Central Michigan was high-scoring, the last one here at Western Michigan was not. Including that 45-point game, four of the past five meetings finished with fewer than 64 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Eastern Michigan/Toledo OVER the total. These teams combined for 73 points last season. The previous year, they combined for 71 points. (Nine came in OT.) I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair Tuesday. Toledo has been on an 'under' streak. However, the Rockets scored 34 against an arguably much stingier team (Eastern Michigan allows 393.3 ypg, Western Michigan allows 320.8 ypg) last game and they should put up at least that many once again. They may need more than that though, as the Eagles just scored 55 (themselves) in their last game. That 55-24 road win was the heels of a 38-31 loss. Note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Eagles were off a pointspread victory. The OVER is also 6-1 the last seven meetings in Toledo. Look for this one to prove higher-scoing than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. The Giants sure looked better than the Chiefs last week. With last week's win, they showed they aren't a joke. Yet, the Chiefs are favored for good reason. Kansas City has been an elite team for the past few seasons. After getting embarrassed last week, we'll see the best of the former champs. This is a chance to redeem themselves on National TV and to remind everyone of how good they can be. Indeed, the Giants are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. No strangers to the spotlight, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four on Monday night. Winning here, on Monday night, was already going to be difficult enough, if healthy. The Giants are a banged-up team though, which makes things considerably more difficult. The last time that the Chiefs were off a loss, they bounced back with a 31-13 blowout win. After their previous loss, they bounced back with a 12-point win, at Philadelphia. I'm expecting them to pull away for another double-digit win on Monday night. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY JETS. Last week's results are helping to provide us with excellent value. The Bengals beat up on Baltimore. The Jets got pounded by the Patriots. Those scores and the injury to Zach Wilson has led to a double-digit spread. While the Bengals are clearly better than they've been in the past, asking them to lay this many points, in this spot, is asking too much. I also played on the Jets in their last game here. The setup was somewhat similar. The Jets were off a blowout road loss and hosting a quality AFC opponent. In that case, the Jets were hosting the Titans, a team which was off a big win. As you're likely aware, the Titans have since beaten both the Chiefs and the Bills. Yet, the Jets beat them outright. Now, they're back home and getting even more points than they were for that game. Sure, White goes instead of Wilson. He got some playing time last week though and was 20 of 32 for 200+ yards. Coach Saleh said this of White: "He's a very calm man. He's a great communicator, he's got great command of the huddle. He's got great command of the offense. He understands progression reads and how to go through a progression, get the ball where it needs to go. He understands how to slide in the pocket to throw instead of slide in the pocket to run. He doesn't panic." I'm comfortable with him, or Flacco, running the offense. Importantly, I believe that the Jets are catching Cincinnati at the right time. The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game. That's the only time that they'll do that this season. Off their big win against the hated Ravens, the Bengals could easily be patting themselves on the back a little. Also, they've got instate rival Cleveland on deck. In other words, it should be easy to look past the lowly Jets. While they may have won big last week, the Bengals have seen four of their seven games decided by a field goal. Prior to last week's loss, the Jets had seen two in a row decided by seven or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Virginia v. BYU -132 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing BYU on the moneyline. Of course, I expect the Cougars to cover here. However, when able to get the moneyline at such a resonable price, removing the risk of failing to cover in a one or two point win, this is the way to go. Virginia comes in on a roll, the reason we're able to get BYU at such a reasonable price. This is no easy place to play though and the Cougars are battle-tested. They beat a good Arizona State team here by double-digits. I really like what I saw from them in last week's win at Washington State, too. They played stingy defense and ran for a season high 238 yards. While the Cavs have been great on offense recently, the BYU defense is well-designed to slow them down. Of course, there's the Bronco Mendenhall factor. He obviously wants to beat his former team. The Cougars want to beat him just as badly though. The Cavs haven't won five in a row in more than a decade. Cougars rise to the occasion and get the "W." |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FSU/Clemson OVER the total. The Tigers have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. That's helped in keeping this O/U line relatively low. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles scored 59 points (themselves) last week. They've scored 33 or more in each of their past three games. Yet, it's Clemson which is favored by more than a TD. If the Noles are scoring, that means that the Tigers are going to need to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete and win. Considering that the Noles have allowed 20 or more in six of seven games and 30 or more in four of those, I feel that the Tigers absolutely will be able to "put up a big number." The Tigers scored 45 and 59 points (themselves) the last two meetings in the series. With the Noles off a 59-point effort, note that the OVER is 4-0 the past four times that FSU had scored 40 or more points in its previous game. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -20.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 115 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. This is a major mismatch and I'm expecting a blowout. These teams have met eight times. The Cajuns won all eight of those games and they covered seven of them. They outgained the Bobcats by an average of 506-304 yards in those games, too. The talent gap is arguably bigger than ever. I like that the Cajuns eked out a victory in their last game. It was their third win of three points or less already. After each of the previous two "close wins," they responded by blowing out their next opponent. The scores were 49-14 vs. Ohio and 41-13 vs. App. State. Remember, Texas State gave up 42 points in a loss to "Incarnate Word," an FCS school and was also blown out 59-21 at Eastern Michigan. Not that they need any extra advantages, but the Cajuns have also had a couple extra days in between games. Expect this score to get ugly. |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -181 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -181 | 84 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing ARIZONA on the ML. The Packers beat me last game. To their credit, they found a way to win by 14 points. They didn't play nearly as well as that score suggests though. In fact, Washington had a commanding advantage in total yards, including a 195-57 edge on the ground. Washington had a 25-19 edge in first downs and was on the field 33 mins, compared to GB's 27 mins. If you happened to catch the game, Heinicke scored TDs twice that were ruled short. Questionable calls, at best. Heinicke noted: "I don't want to get into specifics, but I feel like I was in there both times. I don't want to get fined up here, but I feel like I was in there both times." Either way, my point is that the Packers were a little fortunate and that they really had to fight hard for that win. They were already banged-up to begin with and more guys were going down throughout the game. Though Rodgers played great, as per usual, he complained about a sore back before the game and took more sacks than he would have liked. Now, the Pack step up in class to take on an Arizona team which is firing on all cylinders. The Cards score more points than the Packers and they also allow less. While the Pack were being challenged, the Cards rolled (31-5) over Houston. That easier win will serve them well on the short week, as will playing at home and not having to travel in between games. The Cards haven't just beaten up on weak teams though. When facing stronger teams like Cleveland the Rams and Tennessee, they won by scores of 37-14, 37-20 and 38-13. The Packers' tougest opponent was the Saints and they lost 38-3. This is now the Packers' third road game in the past four weeks. I say it catches up with them, the Cards remaining undefeated for another week. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 45 | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 143 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/SF UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' in last week's Indianapolis/Houston game. The Colts allowed just three points. While they did score 31 of their own, a closer looks shows at the numbers suggests they were fortunate to get that many. They had just 15 first downs for the game. The 49er's didn't play last week. However, I also won with the 'under' in their last game, a close loss against Arizona. While they scored only 10 themselves, the 49'ers limited the high-flying Cardinals to only 17 points. Considering that Arizona scored more than 30 in every other game, that's pretty good. Both teams rank in the top half of the league, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both in this one. That'll help keep the clock moving. Combine that with stingy defense and we can expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Chiefs -198 v. Titans | 3-27 | Loss | -198 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing KC on the moneyline. If the Bills can beat the Chiefs and the Titans can beat the Bills, then the Titans should be able to beat the Chiefs. Right? Not this week. That type of logic rarely holds up, when handicapping football games. Each week and each matchup is unique. The Chiefs bounced back from their loss to Buffalo with a convincing blowout of Washington. They've got their mojo back and are ready to make it two in a row. Note that the Chiefs are 22-5 SU as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, the past few seasons. The game against the Bills was physically and emotionally exhausting; the Titans really left it all on the field. The fact that it was on a Monday night means that they're playing on a short week here. Expect it to catch up with them. KC wins. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Packers have been playing well. However, I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult spot for them. They're off a divisional win and they've got a Thursday showdown - and potential playoff preview - with Arizona, on deck. Additionally, the Packers are dealing with a number of injuries. The only team that GB beat by more than 10 points this season was Detroit. Two wins have come by a field goal or less. Washington has played a very difficult schedule. Four of the Football Team's six games have come against the likes of the Chargers, Bills, Saints and Chiefs. Their only other two games were against the Falcons and the Giants. Washington won both of those games. Having taken on so many elite teams already, the FT isn't going to be intimidated here. While the Pack are certainly tough, Washington is 6-3-1 ATS its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The last three meetings have seen Washington go 2-1. The lone GB victory was by only five points. Expect Washington to give the Pack all they can handle again, with a great shot at the outright upset. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 45 | Top | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Carolina/Texas A&M OVER the total. This is a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Aggies have hit their stride on offense. They have the potential to go over this total by themselves. (They scored 48 themselves at South Carolina LY.) In their last two games, they scored 41 (against Alabama!) and 35 at Missouri. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have given up 40 and 45 in their last two road games. While the Aggies will put up a big number, the Gamecocks should also contribute. They've hit double-digits in every game, including 13 at Georgia and they're averaging 21.9 ppg on the season. Last season's game had an O/U line of 58. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here which is providing excellent value. With the OVER a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Gamecocks were road underdogs, all six of those games producing a minimum of 53 points, look for this one to prove higher scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Colorado +8.5 v. California | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Bears are laying more than a touchdown. For a team which is just 1-5, I believe that's asking a lot. Cal is just 2-9-1 ATS its last 12 games here. The Buffaloes have won three of the past five meetings. One of Cal's victories, over that 10-year stretch, came by a field goal. To put that another way, the Bears have only beaten the Buffaloes by more than a field goal (they won by 12) once in the past decade. The Bears battled hard against the Ducks last time out but came up short. That would have been a big win for them but to come up short figures to be demoralizing. On the other hand, the Buffaloes have some positive momentum, as they're off a 24-0 shutout victory. Expect this to be a close game and grab the generous points. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Purdue | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Boilermakers are off a big win over Iowa but I don't expect them to be able to duplicate that feat against Wisconsin. After a slow start, the Badgers have found their form. The defense is stingy, as per usual. Some recent low scores notwithstanding, this also a very talented Badger offense. The Badgers have beaten Purdue 14 straight times. Every one of those victories came by at least a field goal, too. Note that Purdue is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. While the Boilermakers are improved, this isn't the year that they snap the series losing streak. Badgers win again and cover the small number along the way. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Purdue OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. In fact, I looked back at the last 18 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1998. This is the by far the lowest O/U number of any of them. While I respect the defenses, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The last time (Nov. 2019) that these teams met, they combined for 69 points. The last time they met here (Nov 2018) at Purdue, they combined for 91 points. Needless to say, both games finished above the total. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | 41-36 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VT. The Orange have endured three straight 3-point defeats. Those type of demoralizing losses eventually catch up to a team. I expect that to be the case here. The early start time and the boisterous Hokie home crowd won't make things any easier for the Orange. Note that Orange may have fared well as underdogs recently but they're still just 1-5 ATS the past six times they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. Off b2b losses of their own and with b2b road games on deck, the Hokies can't afford to squander this opportunity. Remember, this is a VT team which defeated UNC. The Hokies are better than their record suggests. Expect them to bounce back with an important victory, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Wake Forest -155 v. Army | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 111 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing WF on the ML. I won with them when they routed Virginia and I expect the Deacons to cover the spread again on Saturday afternoon. Including that blowout win, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 SU. However, they're only 2-3-1 ATS and their last two games were both decided by a field goal. Likewise, Army covered but lost last time out, a 6-point setback at Wisconsin. Four of the Knights' last five games were decided by less than two touchdowns, one of those by only a field goal. That said, with another close game being a real possibility, I'm happy to lay the relatively short price to just have to win the game without worrying about covering any points. It can be difficult to prepare for Army. However, in this case, the Deacons benefit from having had last week off. While Wake Forest was resting and preparing, the Knights left it all on the field at Madison. Wake Forest is 8-10-2 ATS its past 20 as a favorite but 15-5 SU in the same games. Expect the undefeated record to remain in tact. |
|||||||
10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 121 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. The Tigers come in with the better record but the Knights are favored for good reason. While the Knights have lost three games, all three of those losses came on the road. While they would have liked to have won at Navy and Louisville, those were both very close losses. Also, there's no shame in losing at Cincinnati. At home, the Knights are 3-0, including a victory over Boise State. The Tigers have also struggled on the road. They've lost their last two road games; their only road win came at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves aren't good, yet the Tigers only won by five and they gave up 50 points. Going back further finds Memphis at 4-9 ATS its last 13 road games. While the Knights have had trouble covering larger spreads, this line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. That said, the Knights are 5-1 SU their last six off a conference loss and 11-2 SU their last 13 at home. Speaking of "homefield dominance," the Knights are 7-0 ATS their last seven as a host in this series. All seven wins came by at least a TD. Look for the Knights to continue their success here, avenging a tough loss at Memphis last year. |
|||||||
10-21-21 | San Jose State -180 v. UNLV | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing SJSU on the moneyline. The line has come down on the Spartans and that has led to the ML price also dropping. I believe that's providing us with very fair value. There's still a considerable gap between these teams, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Spartans were laying -16 when they faced UNLV last year. They won by 17. Most of those SJSU players returned. Yes, the venue has now changed. The Rebels have been terrible at home for years though and they're just 2-10 SU their last 12 here. While the Spartans are only 1-2 ATS as favorites, they're 3-0 SU in those games. Going back a bit further finds them at 9-2 SU their last 11, when laying points. Going back still further finds the Spartans at 30-11 SU their last 41, when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. While they've come close a couple of times, the Rebels have yet to win a game this season. Remember, they were 0-6 last year, too. I don't see that elusive victory happening tonight. Spartans win. |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/Clev. UNDER the total. You probably have heard that Mayfield is out and Keenum is in. While the veteran backup is capable, he hasn't started in some time and some of his weapons are banged-up. The Browns scored only 14 points last week; the second time in three games that they managed just 14 points. Denver has its own issues though. The Broncos have averaged less than 17 ppg their past three games. On the other side of the ball, at 18.3, Denver ranks #4 in terms of points allowed per game. The Broncos also rank #4 in terms of yards allowed per game. Last week notwithstanding, this is still a stingy Cleveland defense. In fact, the Browns are still #2 in the entire league, in terms of yards allowed per game. Only Buffalo allows less. While the Broncos gave up 34 points last week, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they allowed 30 or more, in their previous game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Tennessee UNDER the total. Both these teams like to run the ball a lot. In fact, they both rank in the top 5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. (The Titans are #2 and the Bills are #4.) We can expect a heavy dose of the run on Monday night, which will help to keep the clock moving. The Bills have indeed been very good on offense. However, they've also been excellent on defense. They went on the road and held the Chiefs to 20 points last game. Before that, they blanked Houston, which was their second shutout in three games. Their 12.8 ppg allowed is #1 in the NFL. Likewise, their 251.8 yards allowed per game ranks #1. They allow just 4.5 yards per play, also #1. As for the Titans, they allowed just 19 points last game and only 16 in their last home game. While last year's game was high-scoring, the previous three meetings all finished with 27 or fewer combined points. With frequent running plays helping to keep the clock moving, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 42 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Seattle OVER the total. With Wilson out, we're working with a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Despite facing a Denver defense which came in playing well, Rothlisberger got going a bit last week. He'd finish with 253 passing yards (2 TD's, 0 INT's) and a season-high 120.9 passer rating. Now, he faces a Seattle defense which allows 10 extra points a game than does Denver. (Broncos allow 15.2 ppg. Seahawks allow 25.2 ppg.) In fact, while the Broncos rank #3 in terms of total yards allowed per game, the Hawks rank last in the entire NFL in that category. They're giving up a whopping 450.8 ypg. Note that Big Ben has 30 TDs (12 INTS) in 12 SNF starts. Prior to his interception at the end, Geno Smith actually looked really good for Seattle. He's a veteran who knows that this is his chance to show people that he's better than they realize. Pete Carroll won't stop being aggressive. The last meeting between these teams had 54 points. The last one here in Seattle had 69. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Cowboys are playing well and have a perfect 5-0 ATS record out of the gate. That has many jumping on the bandwagon. After all, this is "America's Team" that we're talking about. Winning at Foxboro isn't easy though and the Cowboys' hot start has led to them laying a fairly big number. I believe that's asking too much. Note that both Dallas road games have been decided by a field goal or less. Meanwhile, two of New England's three losses were also by three or fewer points. The Pats are off a road win and they lost by only two points to Brady and the defending champs in their previous game. With an O/U line currently at 50.5, note that the Pats are a dominating 25-8-1 ATS (31-3 SU) their last 34, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. In what may well be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -100 | 55 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Indianapolis UNDER the total. I won with the Colts last week. Their defense was great to begin the game but Jackson and the Ravens ultimately got rolling. They're facing a far less dangerous offense this week though and they very likely aren't going to need to score as many in order to win. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams in this one and that'll help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top 15 in terms of rushing attempts per game.) The Colts rank just 21st in the league in terms of ppg. The Texans are worse. They rank 29th, with 17.8 ppg. They scored 0 points in their last road game. Five of the past six meetings have fallen below the total. Look for this one to do the same. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. This is a great opportunity for the Jags to break through and win a game. They're going to be extremely motivated and I like their chances of doing so. Miami hasn't played well. The Dolphins have been outscored 154-79. (That's a little worse than the 152-93 margin which the Jags have been outscored by.) The Dolphins' chances of making the playoffs are arguably no better than Jacksonville's. They're 1-4 behind the 4-1 Bills in the division while Jax is 0-5 behind 3-2 Tennessee.) That said, the likelihood of either team making the playoffs is already extremely slim. That being the case and with this game being played in London, I believe the team which wants it more is going to have an advantage. Surely, the Jags want to snap their skid. The fact that they've played here regularly over the years should work in their favor. This isn't new. At least, not for all of them. Lawrence has been making progress and has cut down on turnovers the past two games. The Dolphins only win of the season was by a 17-16 score. Grab the points. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Air Force v. Boise State -162 | 24-17 | Loss | -162 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing BOISE on the ML. The Falcons are playing well. However, this is a very tough place to play. Also, Air Force's schedule has been soft. Off a win at BYU, the Broncos are coming in full of confidence. The Broncos are 17-4 SU the past 21 times that they were listed as favorites. They're far more "battle-tested" than the Falcons and that will serve them well today. Boise won last year's meeting by a score of 49-30. That's four straight double-digit wins in the series. This one may be closer but the result, a Boise "W," will be the same. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -124 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. (ML) While I respect the Bruins, I believe that the Huskies are better than many realize and I really like how this game sets up for them. While the season hasn't started the way that the Huskies had hoped, this is an experienced and talented Washington team. Last week's bye has given them a chance to regroup. The season isn't lost yet. Remember, the Huskies have won their last two at home. They beat Cal here last game and they hammered Arkansas State (52-3) in their previous game here. While the Huskies have had extra rest and preparation, the Bruins are playing their second straight road game. Washington, 4-1 the past five times it was off a conf. loss, has won the past two meetings with UCLA. I expect another victory this evening. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 64 | Top | 31-64 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +4.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +10 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ SJTATE. Naturally, I respect the Aztecs. This is a big number though and its risen from its opener. I believe we're getting excellent value with an under-rated and under-valued Spartans side. The Spartans have struggled on the road but they have yet to lose at home. The Spartans have played the Aztecs tough. They lost by three in 2018 and by 10 in 2019. Then, last year, they beat the Aztecs outright. That 28-17 victory will provide them with the confidence to know they can complete in this game. Note that they held SDSU to a season low 2.2 ypc in that game. Even off last week's loss, the Spartans are still 10-5 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Expect them to bounce back by giving their guests all that they can handle. |
|||||||
10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. |
|||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles UNDER 53 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tampa/Philadelphia UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a strong defensive game. They held Carolina to 267 yards and 18 points. Their only previous home game vs. an NFC opponent (SF) finished with a score of 17-11. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 10-2 the past 12 times that the Eagles hosted an NFC team. Eleven of those 12 games finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the Bucs offense is obviously explosive, Brady has a banged-up thumb and Gronk remains out. Brady will play but potentially could be slightly less effective than normal. Note that the Bucs have scored only 19 and 24 points in their two road games. Their home scores have been much higher. Their last road game had a final score of 19-17. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points |
|||||||
10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER for the first half. Naturally, I respect both offenses. However, I feel the same way about the defenses. The Bills defense is playing very well right now. Last week, they shut down Houston. That's the second time in three games that they shut out an opponent. Their 11 ppg allowed is #1 in the entire NFL. Also, their 216.8 ypg allowed is #1, by a lot. The Bills held the Chiefs scoreless in the first quarter of the playoff games before Mahomes and co. got going. The regular season meeting was also fairly low-scoring out of the gate. They had only 23 at halftime. The Chiefs last home game finished with 54 points. However, they had 0 after the first quarter and just 17 at halftime. Look for this one to also get off to a lower-scoring start than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. Though they will claim otherwise, with Trey Lance making his first start, the 49'ers are likely going to be slightly more conservative than normal. Not having their normally reliable tight-end (Kittle) is a blow. He already had 19 receptions this season and would have been a nice option for the rookie to have. With the offense likely less than 100%, the SF defense knows it needs to elevate its level of play. Yes, the Arizona offense is explosive. Remember, the 49'ers held the Eagles to 11 points the last time that they were on the road. While they lost last week, they actually held the Seahawks to 234 total yards. They currently rank in the Top 10 in the league, in terms of yards allowed per game. While the Arizona offense gets most of the headlines, the Cards rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game. They've held three of four opponents to 20 or fewer points. Last year's two games had scores of 24-20 at SF and 20-12, here in the desert. Including that result, four of SF's last five visits here have fallen below the number. I'm expecting more of the same this afternoon. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Denver OVER the total. This is the lowest total on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Steelers have given up at least 24 points in each of their past three games. The Broncos gave up 23 last game. While the offense struggled last week, in large part to Bridgewater going down, in their first three games, the Broncos had scored 23 or more each game. As of this writing, Bridgewater appears on track to start. Six of the past eight meetings have finished above the total. Note that ALL eight produced a minimum of 39 combined points. Last year's game had an O/U line of 41 and finished with 47 points. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons UNDER 46 | 20-27 | Loss | -104 | 116 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Atlanta/NY UNDER the total. The Jets' offense finally got going a little last week. However, the Jets still rank last in the NFL with 11.8 points scored per game. The defense has quietly been playing pretty well all season though. NY ranks a respectable 13th in the league in terms of points allowed per game and in terms of yards allowed per game. In terms of yards allowed per play, the Jets defense ranks #7 in the league. Admittedly, the Falcons D hasn't been as good. That said, they allowed just 14 points the last time that they played a game away from Atlanta. While the last game ended up high-scoring, the Falcon offense has been held to 17 points and six points, in two of their games. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Falcons had thrown for 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. This line initially opened a little lower before climbing higher. In a game where I'm expecting points to be relatively hard to come by, that's providing us with excellent value. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 51 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tide have been putting up big offensive numbers, week after week. This is still a relatively young offense though and now they're on the road against arguably the most talented defense which they've faced. Of course, the Tide are still going to score. However, I don't expect them to score as easily, or as many points, as they've been doing. The Alabama defense is considerably more experienced than its offense and has already held three teams to 14 or fewer points. In other words, the Aggies, who have already scored 10 points twice themselves, figure to have a difficult time scoring. Winning this game won't be easy for the Aggies, obviously. That said, they've got a talented defensive front and and offensive line that appears to be coming around. They're going to be doing everything they can to chew up the clock and keep the Tide offense off the field. In the end, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the Aggies' last six games. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Buffalo v. Kent State -5 | Top | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Florida Atlantic v. UAB -180 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing UAB on the ML. The Blazeres are off a disappointing loss to Liberty. That was on the heels of four straight road games though; the only one they lost was at Georgia. This is a talented team which will absolutely not want to lose two in a row in their new home stadium. The Owls are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 66-21 margin. They'll face a UAB team which has still won nine of its last 11 here. Note that the Blazers are 10-2 SU the past 12 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range, a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range overall. Blazers have dominated teams from within their conference here at home and they've got a score to settle with the Owls from the 2019 CUSA title game. Expect them to finish on top. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | San Jose State +3 v. Colorado State | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ STATE. This line opened closer to pick but has climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us excellent value with the visitors. The Spartans are the reigning MWC champs. They were 7-1 last year and they're 3-2 this year. Remember, they brought back 19 starters from last year's team and are arguably even stronger. The Rams, on the other hand, were 1-3 last year and have just one win so far this year. While I do believe the Rams are better than that record suggests and improved from last year, I still feel that this is a tough matchup for them. Note that the Rams have a couple of key players who are banged-up. Also, note that road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in the series. I say the Spartans improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Both teams got thumped on the road last weekend. Ole Miss lost 42-21, at Alabama. Arkansas' loss was worse. The Razorbacks lost 37-0, at Georgia. I believe that the Rebels are the superior team. Playing at home, I expect them to be the team which bounces back from last week's loss. I also ike the fact that the game got moved to the morning slot; this is the third straight game that the Razorbacks have played away from home. (Prior to the game at Georgia, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) The home team is 4-1 ATS the past five in this series. The Razorbacks won by 12 at Arkansas last season. The Rebels won by 14 here the previous year. The Rebels won 61-21 the last time that they were a home favorite. I'm expecting another double-digit win. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Akron +14.5 v. Bowling Green | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. I don' think that there's much separating these teams, in terms of talent. Consider that Akron won 31-3 when these teams met last year. That result will provide the Zips, who brought back 18 starters from that team, with confidence for this one. While the early results haven't been there, this team is stronger than last year. Games at Auburn and Ohio State didn't help the stats but should serve the Zips well here. Meanwhile, Bowling Green brought back only 11 starters. Sure, Bowling Green has a couple of wins. One was by four points though. Now, this relatively inexperienced team is laying points for the first time since 2019. Note that the Falcons are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one. |
|||||||
10-08-21 | Charlotte v. Florida International +4 | Top | 45-33 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the Rams/Seahawks UNDER for the first half. The Seahawks are off a victory over the 49'ers. A look at the stats shows that they were a little fortunate, as they were outgained by a considerable (457-234) margin in total yards. SF threw for more than 300 yards. That sounds bad but the UNDER is actually now a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Seattle allowed more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. That game against SF had only 14 first half points. The teams combined for 35 in the second half. All four of the Rams' games have finished above the total. However, a closer look reveals that three of those four games had 21 or fewer points at halftime. Prior to last week's loss, the Rams had been stingy defensively. Even with that game finishing above the total, the UNDER is 7-1 their last eight games played in October. When these teams met here in the "regular season" last year, the game had only 12 points at halftime. It was a 6-6 tie, all the scoring coming on four long field goals. Look for this one to also start a little slower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. This line has gone up and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Green Wave have played some really tough opponents. September's schedule included Oklahoma, Ole Miss and UAB. Then, they started October on the road. Obviously, Houston is another talented opponent. Still, the Green Wave are at home and I believe that they're going to be bringing their best effort. Note that Houston is 4-11-1 ATS its past 16 as a road favorite of -3.5 to -7 points. (Nine of those were outright losses.) Also, recall that Tulane very nearly beat the Sooners. The Green Wave, who have an experienced offense, traded punches with the Cougars for a half, at Houston, last year. In fact, Tulane had a 24-21 lead at halftime. Playing at home, Houston pulled away in the second half. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS their last 11 lined home games though. This is a very big game for them. They're "battle tested" and I expect them to give their guests all they can handle. Grab the points. |
|||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Raiders/Chargers OVER the total. I wasn't surprised that last night's game was low-scoring. However, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. When I'm playing an 'under,' I typically want games which will feature a lot of running. Naturally, the opposite is true when playing an 'over.' More passing plays are preferred. In this case, both teams rank in the top 5 in the NFL, in terms of passing attempts per game. LV is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, second most in the league. LA isn't far behind, at 42 attempts per game. They rank #1 and #4 respectively, in terms of passing yards per game. The Raiders have seen two of their three games produce 59 or more points. They've personally gone over the 30 mark in two of three. Despite facing some defenses which have been known to be stingy, no team has been able to hold them to less than 26 points. Admittedly, the Chargers have been playing solid defense. Still, their games have gotten progressively higher-scoring with the most recent producing 54 points. It should also be mentioned that they're dealing with several injuries on defense. Dating back to last season, the Raiders have seen seven of their last eight finish above the number. Both 2020 meetings produced 57 combined points. Both teams should be able to move the ball and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB/NE UNDER the total for the 1st half. What a matchup. Brady returns, as a world champion, to Foxboro. Obviously, he's going to want to perform his best. Obviously, Belichick the Patriots are going to do everything they can to try and stop him from doing so. Rather than worry about who will have the last laugh, I'd rather focus on the first half. The Bucs have played some high-scoring games. But that's been a lot to do with the teams that they've played. The Patriots have been playing much lower scoring games than any of the teams which Tampa has faced. New England's first three games had combined final scores of 33, 31 and 41. Halftime scores were 17, 16 and 20. Brady still has weapons. However, not having Gronkowski is a big deal. He's practically unstoppable at times and you know he likely would have had an impact in this game, if given the chance. While their defense remains stingy, the Patriots offense has seen better days. They've scored less than 17 in two of their three games. Look for points to be harder to come by, at least initially, than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers OVER 45.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/PITT OVER the total. The Steelers do have some issues on the offensive line. However, they've still got a veteran QB who has a number of dangerous weapons at his disposal. Rothlisberger and co. know they'll need to improve offensively if they want to keep up with Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay ranks 27th in the league in terms of ppg (27.7) allowed. On offense, the Pack have scored 30 and 35 points in their last two games. The Pack have now seen six of their last seven, since last year, finish above the number. Off a 14-point loss to the Bengals, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Steelers were off a double-digit home loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Lions v. Bears -145 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing CHICAGO on the ML. The Lions, now 0-3 SU, came close against Baltimore but still came up short. That figures to be a tough loss to bounce back from. The Bears have played two tough road games, at Cleveland and at LA. So, its not entirely surprising that they lost those games. They did win their lone home game though, beating Cincinnati. I expect homefield to prove significant in this one. The Bears are 9-5 SU the last 14 times that they were listed as favorites. During that span, the Lions were 5-23 SU as underdogs. While the Lions managed a win in the last meeting, the Bears had won the previous five. Expect them to resume that dominance Sunday afternoon. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +10.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State OVER 51.5 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ State and New Mexico State to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the Spartans to finish 'over' the total in their very first game of the season, back in late August. They scored 45 points for me that day, nearly going over the total themselves. Since that time, however, they've seen their next three games all stay below the number. Those results have absolutely worked in our favor, as they've kept this O/U number lower than it easily could have been. Note that all three of those were on the road. Now, they take a big step down in class, while also returning home. I expect them to put up a very big number. Indeed, the Aggies are not a good defensive team. Since giving up 30 and 28 points in their first two games, they've gotten worse. Over their last three games, they've given up 34, 35 and 41 points. The Aggies did manage to score 25, 43 and 21 themselves in those games. All three finished with greater than 58 points. The teams have met three times since 2010. All three of those games finished above the number. Look for this one to do the same. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State -26 | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Spartans are a much better team than they've shown. Their problem is that their last three games have come on the road. Their next is also on the road, before they have a big game here against San Diego State here in the middle of the month. That being the case, they're going to want to build confidence with a one-sided blowout. They're stronger on both sides of the ball and I fully expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Note that the line has come down from its opener, providing some additional value. These teams used to play in the same conference; the last meeting was a 47-7 destruction, the Spartans outgaining the Aggies by a 504-220 margin. While that was a number of years ago, we can expect another lopsided result tonight. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -200 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing FSU on the ML. Syracuse is 3-1 while FSU is 0-4. Yet, the Seminoles are favored for good reason. The Noles, who played well enough to win last week, have faced a much tougher schedule. Three of their games have been against quality opponents. The Orange are just 5-17 SU the past 22 times that they were underdogs. They're also 0-7 SU in October, during that span. With a road game at UNC on deck, the Noles are absolutely coming in desperate. They're 6-0 SU all-time when hosting Syracuse. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State OVER 51 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/Syracuse OVER the total. When these teams met last (2019) the O/U line was 60. The previous year, their game had an O/U line of 69. We're working with a much lower number this week. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles had no problem moving the ball last week, as they racked up more than 450 yards against Louisville. Really, they could have easily scored more than they did. The problem was that they allowed more than 30 points for the second straight week. Dating back to last year, the Noles have allowed seven of their past eight opponents to score more than 30 points. The only one that didn't was 1-AA Jacksonville State. Syracuse is off a relatively low-scoring (45 points) game vs. Liberty. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring; the points dried up late. In their previous game, the Orange scored 62 points, all by themselves. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have produced more than 50 combined points. Expect this one to do the same. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | USC -7.5 v. Colorado | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans didn't play well last week. They're still a talented team though and they're going to be in an angry mood for this one. I expect them to take out their anger on an outmatched Colorado team. The Buffaloes have really struggled. After beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team, they only scored seven points against Texas A&M. Next, they lost 30-0 to Minnesota. (That looks even worse after the Gophers went on to lose as 30-point favorites against Bowling Green.) Then, last week, Colorado lost 35-13 against Arizona State. Those are all fairly tough opponents, but so is USC. Note that The Buffaloes are now 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. They've dominated the Buffaloes for years and that continues Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Tigers are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home. Both wins came by double-digits. The Vols lost their only road game by 24 points. Of course, those results are largely based on the opponents that these teams were facing. Still, homefield figures to prove significant. The Tigers have won 11 of 15 here the past few seasons. The Vols are 4-6 on the road, during the same span. Note that this is the only time all season that the Vols will play two road games in two weeks. I believe that the beating put on them by the Gators will take a toll in this early road game. Note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS the past six in the series. Also, note that Tennessee is just 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) its last seven as an underdog. The Vols won at Tennessee last year. However, the Tigers brought back considerably more from last year than did the Vols. Expect them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland OVER 45.5 | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 104 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Maryland OVER the total. While both teams have played well defensively, this is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both offenses have plenty of weapons; each offense brought back a lot from last year. The Hawkeyes have scored 34, 27, 30 and 24 points. That's been enough as their opponents haven't been able to keep up. Keep in mind that they were favored by more than three TD's in each of their last two games though. Now, they face the most capable team they've faced since upsetting instate rival Iowa State. I believe that the Terps will put up a big enough number that the Hawkeyes are going to need to score more than they've had to. Keep in mind that Maryland has scored 30, 62 and 67 in its three home games. When Iowa visited here in 2014, the O/U line was 45.5. The teams combined for 69 points. Look for history to repeat itself, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing JACKSONVILLE for the first half. The Jaguars are winless but they're getting better. I expect them to come out swinging. Urban Meyer was always a winner in college and you know he's dying for an opportunity to right the ship on National TV. Meyer had this to say about the team's week-to-week improvement: "First game, nothing. Second game, we made it through a half that we were playing pretty well. Third game, we're getting there. I'm looking for constant improvement. I'm looking for loyalty and faith in the locker room, which I have. That's never wavered. I'm not taking anything away from the Cardinals, we played well enough and if we don't make some mistakes, we could've won that game." The Bengals won by eight when these teams met last season. However, the score was 13-10, in favor of the Jags, when the teams went to the locker room. I feel that getting more than a field goal for the first half is generous and I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Cincinnati OVER the total. Both teams have seen two of their three games fall below the number. Those results have worked in a our favor, as the line has come down a bit from its opener and could easily be higher. A closer look shows that both Jacksonville's loan road game AND Cincinnati's lone home game were high-scoring. The Bengals only game here was against Minnesota. The O/U line was 47 and the teams combined for 51. Meanwhile, the Jags' lone road game (at Houston) had an O/U line of 45.5 and finished with 58 points. Going back further finds that the OVER is 6-0 (or 5-0-1 *depending whether using 45.5 or 46 for 12/16/18 O/U line) the past six times that the Bengals were favored. All six games produced greater than 45 points. In fact, eight of the last nine games that the Bengals have played as favorite have finished with more than 45 points. The other had 44. That includes a 58-point affair when these teams hooked up last October, Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Burrow has more weapons and more confidence now. In only the second time in NFL history that a rookie QB, who was taken #1, faces a QB who was #1 overall the previous year, look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Dallas UNDER the total for the first half. Both teams come in with high hopes. Both are banged-up both each has their eyes on first place in the division. With NY and Washington a combined 1-5, that's where the winner of tonight's game will be. Last night's game saw 24 points scored in the first half and 34 in the second half. I expect this divisional battle to also get off to a relatively cautious start. The Cowboys are off a 20-17 game against the Chargers. The Eagles are off a 17-11 game against the 49'ers. Note that they're running the ball 30 times a game, thus far. That helps keep the clock moving. While the most recent was higher-scoring, two of the past three meetings between these teams had less than 17 points at halftime. Look for them to go into the locker-room with less than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -106 | 155 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |