Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-17 | Buffalo -7.5 v. Kent State | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
The Kent Golden Flashes have not done a whole lot on the football field over the course of their history. They were 11-3 back in 2012, but since joining the FBS back in 1990, they have had just 1 other winning season, and 2017 is not going to be another. The Golden Flashes have arguably the worst offense in NCAAF at the FBS level, and have yet to taste the end-zone in their 3 games vs FBS opponents, losing by combined scores of 119-6. The Flashes have an even bigger problem this week, as they are 8-27 passing in those 3 games for just 129 yards. QB Nick Holley is now done for the season, with a knee injury, and as bad as the passing game has been, it is about to get worse. kent can't run either, as they have 147 carries for 400 yards, less than 3ypc vs FBS opponents. The Bulls allow less than 20ppg, and have played Army and Minnesota, and have been better than average against the run. While Buffalo also lost their starting QB, the kent defense has been almost as bad as the offense. This is clearly a mismatch, and will gladly lay single digits here, as Kent may end up not scoring in this one at all. Make the play on Buffalo. |
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09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State +1 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 101 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Friday September 29th, 2017 Top Side Play · [110] Utah State Aggies |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The Oakland Raiders have searched for a quality QB for years, and they finally have one quickly rising to elite status. It is unlikely that many realize that Derek Carr is now 14-3 in his last 17 games. During that span he has thrown 33 TD's and just 6 INT's, and he is clean this season with 5 TD's and 0 INT's. His yards per attempt are up to 8.2 yard, and he is certainly arriving at elite status. He now has Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and with an explosive group of receives to throw to, the Oakland offense is as good as it gets. Washington has been a run heavy team thus far this season, and Kirk Cousins is a good QB, but I think Oakland has the better team on both sides of the ball, and expect them to come away with a big road win here. The Raiders fit a situation that is 89-48 ATS as well. Make the play on Oakland. |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The Los Angeles Chargers franchise is in disarray right now. They are making themselves a new home in LA, but the fan base is minimal, and this team continues to be snake bit. QB Phillip Rivers continues to play at a high level, but not much else is working right now. The Chargers are 6-16 in their last 22 games, have lost 7 straight, and of the 22 games, 18 have been decided by a single possession, unfortunately for the Chargers they are losing almost all of them. Last week rookie kicker Younghoe Koo missed a FG as time expired, adding another loss. Koo s just 1-4 on his FG attempts this season, another issue. Meanwhile, in Kansas City, QB Alex Smith has taken his last step in becoming an elite QB. he is completing 78% of his passes at 9.8ypa.The Chiefs have also gotten a huge surprise in Toledo RB Kareem Hunt, who has carried 30 times for 229 yards at 7.6 yards a pop. The KC defense has stood up when needed and have recorded 9 sacks already in 2 games. Overall, this team is taking on a look of a champion, and the process didn't just start this season. Kansas City is 2nd to New England over their last 15 games, at 12-3, and they have added a quality RB, and Alex Smith has become an elite QB. The pieces are in place for a big year, and they are still a bit under-rated. Make the play on Kansas City. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn -19 v. Missouri | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 7 m | Show |
Last year the Auburn Tigers finished the season with the 5th best defense in the country, and playing in the SEC, that is making a statement. They have an even better defense this season, and through 3 games, they are ranked #1 allowing a stingy 201ypg, and held the Clemson attack to 14 points. They have a good chance of shutting out a poor Missouri offense, that has some very misleading numbers. The Tigers opened with Missouri St., and proceeded to pile up over 800 total yards, but against SC and Purdue, they managed 13 total points, and could not move the ball at all. The Missouri defense allowed 31.5ppg a year ago, and had to replace 6 starters, and have allowed 36.3ppg so far without facing a stellar offense. Auburn has Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at QB, and while he has not been great he has been adequate. Auburn's numbers don't look as good as they could, after turning the ball over 5 times a week ago, but teams playing as a road favorite of -14.5 or more, off a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover are 50-19 ATS in their next game. I think Auburn has had a tough week of practice after the 5 turnover debacle a week ago, and will be ready to blow this one wide open. Make the play on Auburn. |
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09-23-17 | Florida Atlantic +3 v. Buffalo | Top | 31-34 | Push | 0 | 129 h 56 m | Show |
Both these teams opened vs opponents that were way over their head, and started 0-2, but each had a cupcake last week and got much needed wins. This will be the first highly competitive game each has played. Lane Kiffin has taken over at FAU, and this team will eventually be good, but for now, they will struggle. The Owls have been 3-9 for 3 straight years, but I expect them to be in the hunt for a Bowl game, and a win here is crucial to that outcome. The Owls should do well offensively here with QB Daniel Parr beating out former Florida St. QB DeAndre Johnson, and RB Gregory Howell Jr. has averaged 12.1 ypc on the ground. Buffalo has looked good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle. Buffalo had some awful numbers on both sides of the ball a year ago, and while they should improve on both sides of the ball there is a long way to go. The only player on offense right now is QB Tyree Jackson, but that being said he is completing just 54% of his passes, and leads the team in rushing. There simply is no one else making an impact, and I think Kiffin schemes to key on him, which will force someone to step up, and through 3 games we just have not seen that yet. Florida Atlantic fits in an impressive 70-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Florida Atlantic. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -13 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
One team that I projected as a potential National Championship team this year is Oklahoma St. Their 1st 3 games has done nothing to change that. They have an offense that is absolutely loaded, and Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph continues to improve. he threw for 28 TD's a year ago, to just 4 INT's, so add 11 more TD's and 1 NT, and he is the best in college right now. he also has the top receiver in James Washington, and a now sophomore RB in Justice Hill (1,142 yds last year), and so much more. This is by far the best offense in football. The question for this team is the defense, but they are improved and can potentially be very good. TCU is not the same team on either side of the ball, and lost 31-6 last year to the Pokes at home. TCU allowed 30+ points against them last year 7 times. They will be hampered on offense with Kyle Hicks likely out. QB Kenny Hill threw 13 INT's a year ago, and any improvement on offense is going to up to him. While TCU addressed their issue of size on the OL, it lacks experience especially against an offense of this magnitude. They stumbled too often last year against the better teams combining to score 22 total points vs W. Virginia, Oklahoma St., and Kansas St. Oklahoma has great special teams, and led the nation a year ago in opponent's starting field position. Last but not least, the Cowboys fit a super strong 104-42 ATS situation for this one. All Cowboys here, make the play on Oklahoma St. |
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09-23-17 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -26 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be back in the national spotlight this season. They have passed their first test vs W. Virginia in their opener, and have started 3-0, out-scoring the 3 opponents 122-41. The Hokies like to run the ball and have done so 45 times a game, passing just 30. The ability to run has allowed QB Josh Jackson to throw in good spots and he has completed 65% of his passes at just shy of 10 yards per attempt and a strong 15.1 yards per completion. Hokies as usual will enjoy a strong special team's advantage here also. Old Dominion is 2-1 but wins over Umass, and Albany were not impressive, and allowed 53 points to North Carolina at home, completing just 14 of 32 passes. tech has the ability to put up 50+ here as well, but a difference from the NC game is, the Hokies can defend much better, and I don't see the Monarchs scoring 23 here as they did vs Carolina. This game fits a situation that has been 278-196 ATS, and has been even better of late. Make the play on Virginia Tech. |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3 v. Arizona | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 28 m | Show |
Arizona coach Rich Rodriquez is under scrutiny, and his shallow recruiting has left a lot of holes on this Arizona team. His buyout is over 5 million, but he is treading on tender ground right now. Last year the Wildcats finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 2003, and things don't look very promising. The Cats lost 8 games in the Pac-12 a year ago allowing 44.8ppg in the losses, and have a defensive line with a pair o players under 250lbs. so they are getting pushed around. The QB position is held down by Brandon Dawkins, who has no WR's to throw to, and they are suited for the ground. problem is, the Utes allow less than 50ypg on the ground, and I don't see the Cats generating much. Utah attack improved with OC change, have a duel threat QB, and off to a 3-0 start. Utes have won 9 games in each of the last 3 years, and looks like they will likely get their again. Road teams in competitive games (+3.5 to -3.5), after a pair of ATS wins, and prior to week 8 are a blistering 70-23 ATS over the last 7 years, and the Utes qualify here. Make the play on Utah. |
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09-22-17 | Virginia v. Boise State -12 | Top | 42-23 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
I think Bronco Mendenhall was a good hire for Virginia, but after his 2-10 season in his first year at the helm. Mendenhall himself admitted the scope of the rebuilding process is a lot greater than he thought. Virginia has had 1 winning season in their last 8 years, and despite what looked like a great game last week, beating Uconn 38-18, the Huskies are among the worst teams in the country, and have been for several years. The Cavs lost their prevoius game at home by 17 to Indiana to gain some perspective. I think that win has held the line down here, and playing at Boise St. is far from a walk in the park. Boise St. has a very strong defense, and while Washington St. scored 47 points, it was a triple overtime game, and the Cougars managed less than 5 yards a play. QB Brett Ripien will be back under center for Boise St. and while the offense does not have the level of playmakers it did a year ago, I think the Broncos dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Broncos own a 119-20 SU mark at home, and amazingly, 86 of those wins have come by 13 points or more. Broncos 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 13 or less, and 89-57 ATS following a win vs a conference opponent. Make the play on Boise St. |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals v. Colts +7.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
INDY +7 -115 (54-22 ATS system play).
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09-09-17 | Utah -2.5 v. BYU | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
The Holy War will take place in BYU this season. The Utes have owned this series of late, but most game have been close. BYU has shown no signs that they will be able to move the ball on the Utes, while Utah struggled early vs N. Dakota and got things rolling. BYU needs their defense to come up big here, because they are going to have trouble getting points. They have run the ball poorly, and the passing game has been to be kind, ordinary. Overall the Utes come into this game with the better team before the season started, and continue to look like more of a complete team since the season started. I think this is going to be a long year for BYU, as they have Wisconsin on deck, and are looking down the barrel of 1-3, with the lone win a struggle vs Portland St. Utah with a win and San Jose on deck could enter Pac-12 play at 3-0, and I like them here. Make the play on Utah. |
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09-08-17 | Oklahoma State -28 v. South Alabama | Top | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
Most don't consider Oklahoma St. to be an elite team, but since the start of the 2010 season, only 11 teams have more wins than the Cowboys. This team has not been afraid to run up the score, having won 21 games during the period by 30+ points. They have been especially strong outside the conference where they are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS, during the regular season, and 9 of the wins have come by 30+. They have been favored by 28 or more points in 9 games, and have won by an average margin of 43.1ppg. They have a Heisman candidate QB, a plethora of talented skill set players and an improved defense. They also fit a very predictive situation, one that reads, road teams off a favorite win vs an opponent off a loss, to a line of more than -20 are 79-35-1 ATS. Mae the play on Oklahoma St. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +3.5 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Tennessee and Georgia Tech will travel to the Superdome in New Orleans to open their 2017 season. The biggest advantage in this game belongs to Georgia Tech. The SEC is known to be the toughest conference, especially on defense. That typically plays into the hands of an opponent that runs the triple option, or in modern terms the flex bone. The entire idea of the flex bone is to negate the better defenses ability to defend an opponent, and shorten the game, and bridge the gap. History proves that out. Looking at flex bone teams including Georgia Tech, Citadel, Navy, Army, Air Force, Georgia Southern, they have a combined ATS record vs the SEC of 25-3-2 if you don't include the Georgia Tech vs Georgia games, as Georgia sees it every year, playing their instate rival. Make the play on Georgia Tech. |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU -16 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 109 h 12 m | Show |
Hurricane Harvey has forced this game originally scheduled to be played in Houston, to be moved to the Super Dome in New Orleans. That is good news for LSU, as this becomes a quasi-home game. BYU finished at 9-4 a year ago, but think the record has them overrated coming into this season. The Cougars finished +14 in turnover margin a year ago, and chances are they will not have the same good fortune this season. QB Taysom Hill is now gone, as is RB Jamal Williams, and Tanner Magnum will be under center. I don't think this team is as well coached now that Bronco Mendenhall has moved on. BYU is going to struggle running the ball, as Magnum is purely a pocket passer, and defenses, such as LSU are going to tee-off on him in bad down and distance situations. LSU is now under the direction of Ed Orgeron. he brought in Matt Canada to run the offense, and finally the explosive talent of the Tigers ill have a chance to shine, as Canada is going to open up the offense in a big way. Overall, this is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and special teams. BYU is 0-6 ATS in the regular season vs the SEC since 1998, don't see anything to change that here.Make the play on LSU. |
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09-02-17 | Kentucky -10.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
Going back to 1985, no Kentucky team has ever won more than 8 games. is there a chance the Cats accomplish that or more this season? This will be Mark Stoops 5th year, and he has built a team that is starting to look SEC caliber for the first time ere in years. They have 3 very likely wins outside the conference vs E. Michigan, E. Kentucky, and this one vs S. Miss. They have 3 SEC road games, that are winnable vs SC, Miss St., and Vandy, and do not play Alabama,Auburn, or LSU. They have their best team, and easiest schedule. Last year opened as poorly as it could have, with losses to S.Miss and Florida, but more disturbing was giving up 40+ in their first 3 games, with 2 opponents being S. Miss and N. Nexico St. They certainly got things turned around finishing the regular season 7-3 in their last 10 regular season games, and a win at Louisville to cap it off. Just 1 opponent scored 40+ the rest of the way. S. Miss loses one of their best QB's all-time, from an offense that eroded 7ppg from the previous year. Their top 15 defense from a year ago returns just 4 starters. Ken Howard will take over the offense, but a 44% completion rate, and 4 INT's vs ODU, and N. Texas a year ago, is great cause for concern. The offensive line is being rebuilt with JUCO's and freshman, so a questionable QB, with a new OL is highly suspect. Kentucky has revenge, and the goods to get it done. Make the play on Kentucky. |
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09-01-17 | Utah State +28 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Utah St. has had a lot of recent success, having gone to a Bowl game in 6 straight seasons. That all came tumbling down last year when they finished 3-9. While the 3-9 finish was disappointing, they were not so far away from a different outcome, as they lost 5 conference games by a grand total of 29 points. Not many 3-9 teams finish the season having been out-scored by opponents by just 5.4ppg, but that was the Aggies fate a year ago. This team always seems to run the ball well (2000+ yards in 8 straight seasons), but with a new DC, promising to open the field, they may have a different look. Wisconsin should be good defensively, the question is, how will the offense be? QB Alex Hornibrook threw just 9 TD's and 7 INT's a year ago, and the running game is going to have a whole new look. The talent is there, but it may take a few games to show itself, and think the number is way too high here. Make the play on Utah St. |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Friday September 1st, 2017 Top Side Play · [144] Rutgers Scarlet Knights +27.5 -110Fri Sep 1st, 2017 8:00pm EDT Win/Loss UndecidedExpert Preview: MREAST NCAAF FRIDAY PLAY OF THE DAYExpert Analysis: Last year Rutgers was arguably the worst team in NCAA Football, as they went 2-10. The schedule was part of the reason, along with the lack of experience, injuries, and talent. They will be under-valued starting this season because of it. Rutgers lost 5 games vs top teams a year ago by a combined score of 272-13, including @ Washington 48-13. This will be vastly improved team, as QB Gio Resigno started the last 5 and has upside potential, and they also have top freshman Johnathon Lewis, as well as Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin. They have some good receivers, but none more game changing than the explosive Janarian Grant. Grant missed the last 8 games, but has already set an NCAA record with a total of 8 punt/kickoff returns for TD`s. Additional transfers from Arkansas, and Miami,Florida, and Jerry Kill now controlling the offense, there is a lot more to work with this season. They also brought in Ryan Anderson, the leading punter in D3 a year ago. Washington is going to be as good as they were a year ago, if the rebuilt secondary can hold its own. Overall, Rutgers is going to be a lot better, but a difficult schedule may limit the wins. They lost by 33ppg on the road a year ago, and just 14ppg at home, and they should be able to stay within 4 TD`s here. Make the play on Rutgers. |
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08-26-17 | South Florida v. San Jose State +22 | Top | 42-22 | Win | 100 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
The South Florida Bulls had their best season ever a year ago, one which ended with a Bowl win over an SEC school in South Carolina. That led to the coach moving on to a P5 school, replaced by Charlie Strong. That means a new system on both sides of the ball, and having to travel 3000 miles or their opener, is not easy. The offense averaged over 42ppg a year ago, and scored 30 r more in every game. The problem was the defense. Despite such a high powered offense, the Bulls did not win any of their last 8 games by more than 20 points. San Jose is an interesting opponent. Mainly because OC Andrew Sowder, was a coach at Texas under Charlie Strong, now the coach at USF. His OC followed him to USF from Texas as well in Sterlin Gilbert. That means Sowder knows the lay of the land when it comes to the Strong coached, and Gilbert run offense of the Bulls. Sowder also coached under two powerful offensive minds at Bowling Green, under Dino Babers, and Baylor, under Art Briles. I think ther is a huge talent differential here, but a huge coaching edge on both sides of the ball for San Jose St. Points are simply too high here, make the ply on San Jose St. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
I took the top 11 SB`s in regards to the distance from the best offense, to the best defense. Here is an example: I wanted to see how the big offenses, when playing with a huge gap regarding points allowed by the defense in the SB. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 43 m | Show |
Sunday January 22nd, 2017 Game of the Year Side Play · [313] Pittsburgh SteelersSun Jan 22nd, 2017 6:40pm EST Win/Loss UndecidedExpert Preview: MREAST NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR (EXTREME DETAILS)Expert Analysis: Do we really know how good the New England defense is? The Pats have allowed the fewest points in the league per game at 15.6. Sure looks like a defensive powerhouse, in an NFL era of scoring. But how about these facts, which are rather shocking: Here are the offensive points per game rank of the New England opponents: Remember 32 is the worst: 32 LA Rams 31 Cleveland 30 NY Jets 30 NY Jets 29 Houston 29 Houston 27 San Francisco 24 Cincinnati 22 Denver 21 Baltimore 18 Seattle 17 Miami 17 Miami 11 Pittsburgh 10 Buffalo 10 Buffalo 6 Arizona So they had 7 of 17 games vs the 5 worst offenses in the league (41.1% of their entire schedule) They had 10 of their 17 games vs the bottom 1/3 of all offenses or 58.8% of their schedule They had 13 of their 17 games vs the bottom 50% of all offenses or 76.4% of their schedule. They faced just 1 team in the top 9, and that was week 1, so in their last 16 games, they have not faced an offense inside the top 10 in points scored per game. They played 5 games with a team that did not have their starting QB, including their game vs Pittsburgh. While this defense gets raves, this is some handicapping material that can open some eyes, and you won`t see the stuffed suits on ESPN, or elsewhere talking about it. NE faced just 7 offenses this season that ranked in points per game at #18 or higher. here is a look at those games, and how many yards per play they averaged vs NE: 6 Arizona 6.1 17 Miami 7.5 (with starting QB) 10 Buffalo 5.3 11 Pitt 5.4 (without starting QB) 10 Buffalo 5.8 18 Seattle 7.0 17 Miami 4.9 (without starting QB) So if you take away the 2 games when the opponent did not have their starting QB the remaining 5 teams averaged 6.34 yards per play against the vaunted NE defense. To put that in perspective the high powered offense of Atlanta generates 6.9, and GB generates 6.0 So if you take the average of GB and Atlanta of 6.45 compare that to NE`s 6.34, and they have allowed elite offensive numbers to teams that would have an average rank of 12.2. Now consider Pittsburgh ranks at #11 (comparable to the best group of teams NE has faced all season), and those teams put up GB and ATL style yards per play against them. Remember this is a #1 ranked defense in points allowed, I think after reading this, IT`S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE! Sorry, NE fans, but the numbers spell it out. So suppose this plays out. What does it do to the NE offense, if the opponent is having offensive success against them? They don`t get the ball as much, or for as long as they are used to, and the defense which is used to going against very poor offenses, is having to defend a lot more than they are accustomed to. So now if we take the facts, and put it up against history we see this: Playoff teams in week 20 that have allowed 33 or less points in their last 3 games (typically comprised of bad offenses), are 4-10-1 ATS, and here is the biggie, allowing 26.3ppg. So where did the elite defense go? Take it a step further, and since the 2004 playoffs, these teams are a shocking 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS, allowing 31.4ppg! Best defense? they have lost by an average of 14ppg. So basically what I have done here is match up real results with history, and one has confirmed the other, at the very least, NE looks to be in big time trouble. Playoff teams that are on an ATS winning streak of 4 games or more, as well as a SU winning streak of 4 games or more, and playing to a line of less than -10, are: 0-11 ATS That works against NE. Make the play on Pittsburgh, my NFL Playoff GOY! |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
Since October 19, 2015 the Kansas City Chiefs are an unbelievable 23-5. That is the best record of any NFL team over the last 28 games. They have out-gained their opponents less than half the time, just 13 times total, including just 5 times this season, despite generating 12 wins. The Steelers over the same period have out-gained their opponent 21 times, which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They have had 18 games of the 28 played with an average turnover margin of 2.6, and they are 17-1 SU in these games, and 15-3 ATS. They are 2-8 ATS when the turnover margin is 0 or negative. Since a good percentage of turnovers are random, they are being over-valued here. Turnovers have been directly responsible for 3.5 points per game for the Chiefs this season, and the probability of them having a turnover advantage in this game is 50-50. The Chiefs are the worst 12 win team in NFL history from the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them by 26 total yards a game. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 32 from the line of scrimmage and even better than that when they have Brown, Big Ben, and Bell all in the game. There is no telling if their will be a regression to the mean in this particular game for KC, but the line, their 12 wins, and hosting here, are based on numbers that are a lot uglier than the line, so all things being equal, the Steelers have the better team, on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh. |
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01-15-17 | Packers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 47 m | Show |
Dallas crushed GB at Lambeau 30-16. It would be easy to take away from that...the better team is by far Dallas. Green Bay over the last 7 games, is statistically the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2). Green Bay had an 0-4 stretch, ouch! Looking back on those 4 games they had up to 10 starters out! Otherwise this team is 11-2, and even those 13 games were injury laden, as this one will be as well. The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the 7 games. They accomplished the hat trick during the 7 games, scoring 38 points in all 3 games vs arguably the top 3 defenses in the NFL, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants. Rodgers has thrown 22 TD`s to 0 INT`s, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now. The assumption is that Prescott will be Prescott, most likely he will be, but this is his 1st playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game, it is a wait and see, there is a small chance he implodes. I`m sure GB is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him. week 19 teams that allowed less tan 20 points in their last game, playing to a line of less than 9, vs an opponent that scored less than 35pts in their last game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is less than 43 or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by 7 points, and just 3 by more than 5 points! Week 19 home favorites from -4 to -9 are 6-18 ATS since 2006. In the end, like always, this is just 1 game, anything can happen. You do your bes, do your homework, and come out with an opinion. I happen to like GB here. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
This is a game of contrasts, that brings the NFL's best offense up against the NFL's best defense over the last 5 years. The Seahawks won in Seattle 26-24, but a no-call on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones was highly contested, and Seattle took the win. Those things tend to stick with teams, and this time Atlanta gets Seattle at home. There is a stark contrast with this Seattle team playing at home vs on the road, in fact it is staggering. They averaged 28.1ppg at home, and just 15.9ppg on the road, and 3 times on the road scored 6 points or less. Seattle has a problem with their offensive line, and Russell Wilson who used to bailout the offense with his legs, has been dealing with injuries all season, and is at a career low in carries, yards, and yards per attempt. he has also had the worst passer rating of his NFL career, and thrown more INT's than any previous year. The Seattle defense is still very good, but no longer elite. The loss of Earl Thomas really hurt. Since that injury the Seahawks have given up 38 to Green Bay, 34 to Arizona, and 23 to lowly SF. Matty Ice has had his best year in Atlanta. The Falcons have gone for 33 or more points in 11 of 16 games, and the Atlanta offense vs the Seattle defense, is much further apart than the Atlanta defense vs the Seattle offense. The Seattle pass defense is now average allowing 6.7 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.6, and now worse without Thomas. Atlanta should be able to score plenty in this game, and they are a combined 1 yard per play better than the Seahawks, and the line is not reflective of it. Make the play on Atlanta. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Top Side Play · [151] Clemson Tigers +7 -112 |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers were left for dead at 4-6, but Aaron Rodgers came out and said the Packers could run the table, and they did. Rodgers himself was the biggest reason, as he threw 15 TD`s and 0 INT`s in the 6 games. The Packers season has been marred by injuries, and during a 4 game losing streak they had 10 starters out, so have otherwise gone 10-2 on the season. The offense hit top defensive teams, Minnesota, and Seattle for 38 points here, so the Giants defense, which has been tough all season, is going to be challenged. The problem for the Giants is, they have not scored even 20 points in a game in their last 5, and Eli Manning has 16 INT`s on the season, and appears to have lost something on his fast ball, and his downfield accuracy has been poor. Devontae Adams and Jordy Nelson combined have caught as many TD passes this season as manning has thrown all year. Packers are 12-0 ATS as a favorite off a road win where they were trailing at the half. Packers have played 4 straight clean games, no turnovers, and teams that have done so are 15-2 ATS to a line of less than -11. Teams in the playoffs that average less than 20ppg, but their opponents average better than 24, are 0-5 SU/ATS. Green By has forced 13 turnovers in their last 4 games, and committed 0 themselves. That is where games are won and lost. Make the play on Green Bay.
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
The Miami Dolphins still list QB Ryan Tannehill as a possibility for this game, but it is more likely Matt Moore will start. Miami made the playoffs in large part because of a cupcake schedule, as they faced just 4 playoff teams the entire season, and went 1-3. The one win came against Pittsburgh, but Ben Roethlisberger was injured early in that game, returned, but obviously was not himself, and actually missed the Steelers next game. Revenging teams for a loss earlier in the season are 59-39 ATS in the playoffs. Miami has many issues. Their all-pro center Mike Pouncey is out, and Jay Ajayi has not run well without him. Additionally. Bryan Mitchell has an ankle injury, and both Miami safeties are out. LT Brandon Albery is also hurting, and Miami has issues all over the field on both sides. They won 10 games this season to teams with a combined record of 54-105-1, and were out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 50ypg. I think Pittsburgh will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this contest. Wild Card playoff games, with a line of -9.5 or higher, have been 9-0 SU/ATS to the favorite since 1996, winning by an average of 18ppg (30-12). Make the play on Pittsburgh.
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions were 9-4, and all they had to do was win one of their last 3 games to clinch the NFC North and they failed to do so. That means they are on the road to open the playoffs against the Seattle Seahawks, a very dangerous home team. The Lions have been 0-3 since Matthew Stafford dislocated a finger on his throwing hand. The Lions have the ugliest history of any NFL team playing out west, as they are a brutal 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS combined vs the AFC West, and the NFC West. They have lost these games by an average score of 29.7 to 15.7, or 14ppg. The Lions had a patsy schedule and finished the regular season 0-5 SU vs teams that have made the playoffs. They also fit a horrible profile, as teams that are not fumble prone, and average less than 0.4 lost fumbles a game, are not favored by 4 or more points, to a total of less than 47, are 0-10 ATS in the playoffs. Seattle is 17-1-1 ATS on turf as a favorite, if they threw for 282 or more yards in their last game. Finally, week 18 home favorites of -8 or more are 9-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average score of 30-12. Make the play on Seattle. |
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01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 644 h 11 m | Show |
It was going to be impossible for Iowa to duplicate last season, but they did have a respectable season at 8-4, and had a huge win over Michigan. The issue this season has been the lack of much offense. The Hawkeyes 4 biggest games against Minnesota,Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St. saw them score a total of 51 points, and they are going to be hard pressed to move the ball against Florida. Florida has 11 players, mostly on defense that are dealing with injuries, but the 3+ weeks off will get a lot of those players on the field. Florida gets this game in Tampa, and will have a big share of the crowd behind them. Florida held 8 teams to 10 or less points this season, and I don't see Iowa doing much offensively here. Iowa is in a bad spot historically for this Bowl game, one that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on Florida. |
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01-01-17 | Raiders v. Broncos -1 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! Denver |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +10 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Cardinals v. Rams +7 | Top | 44-6 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Ravens v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +9 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |
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01-01-17 | Texans v. Titans -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Happy New Year to all! |