Rating: 2 Units

Florida absolutely dominated Edmonton in game three of this series and their physical play really bothered the Oilers throughout the whole game. Edmonton is a team that needs to stay disciplined and not engage in the after the whistle games that Florida likes to play, but they failed to do that in game three. I still think Edmonton can battle in this series and I think they will bounce back here. The Oilers did create plenty of chances early in their last game and I think if they play that way again, they will get the win. 

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The Rockies are going with Kyle Freeland on the rubber. Freeland came through with a great performance last week, conceding two runs (zero earned) in 6.2 innings against the Marlins and earned his first win of the season. Freeland conceded three runs in six innings against San Francisco last month and has issued a decent 4.20 ERA and an 8-7 record in 25 career meetings.

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The Pacers could have Jarace Walker returning from injury, but it does seem as though Tyrese Haliburton might have to play through a bit of a niggle after he was seen hobbling after Game 2. Still, the Pacers can turn to players like Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell, who should play better at home. There is no reason for the Thunder to mess with a winning formula, as Chet Holmgren looked much more dangerous in the starting role. Looking at betting trends, the Pacers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the playoffs, while the Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their seven games as a road favorite. The Pacers would be down 0-2 in the series if not for some Haliburton heroics at the end of Game 1, but the Pacers were good enough to steal home-court advantage, which is crucial in this series. The Pacers will be disappointed that they didn't give themselves much of a chance after such a poor first half on Sunday, but the Pacers' got the split on the road. They are returning to a packed home crowd. The momentum is with the Thunder after their big win in Game 2, but the Pacers love being the underdog at home. I think they can pull off the minor upset with the role players stepping up on their home court.

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When it comes to pitching, the Angels’ staff has a 4.77 ERA (24th) and 1.49 WHIP (28th). The projected starting pitcher for the Angels is Kyle Hendricks, who is 3-6 in 12 starts this season, with a 5.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 65.0 innings.

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This one will be interesting as the two starting pitchers in this contest have trended in opposite directions of late. Brown threw six scoreless frames, allowing one hit and fanning nine in a game the Cubs won over the Reds where he came in after an opener. He followed that up with his quality start against the Tigers, even though he took the loss, as he squared off with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Meanwhile, Luzardo has been scorched in his last couple of starts, giving up 20 runs on 21 hits over his last 5.2 innings of work. His ERA more than doubled from 2.15 to 4.46 in that stretch. The Phillies are a good team but they’re in a bit of a slump. Until Luzardo rebounds, you have to fade him slightly.

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In this Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, the Angels are coming as -155 home favorites. The Angels have a better overall record, but have been below average at home, while the Athletics have been playing much better on the road. The Angels are a big home favorite, but I don’t trust Soriano against anyone at this point, especially at home. 

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Chicago continues to play well over their last seven games, and they come into this series with plenty of momentum. The White Sox are 6-26 on the road this year, while the Astros are 22-12 at home. Houston has won three of their last four games, and they are starting McCullers, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The White Sox are going with Smith, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts. I know Chicago has shown improvement, but they only have six road wins this year.

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The Toronto Blue Jays (36-30, 14-17 Away) are playing their best baseball of the season after winning ten of the previous 12 games. The Blue Jays swept the Athletics, beat the Phillies and Twins, and opened the current series in St. Louis with a 5-4 victory in extra innings. Alejandro Kirk led the offense with two RBI, while Jose Berrios pitched for 6.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing no runs on four hits with one strikeout and two walks. Yariel Rodriguez was credited with the win. 

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This season, the Twins average 4.25 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .242/.314/.387 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Twins’ staff has a 3.51 ERA (7th) and 1.17 WHIP (5th). Byron Buxton leads the Twins with a .258 batting average, ten home runs, and 38 RBI this season.

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The underdogs have won eight of the last nine games between the Athletics and Angels. While the Angels have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against AL West opponents.

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The Oilers and the plus money is appealing when you consider how explosive they’ve been in these playoffs. The Oilers also have 29 road wins. I get it. However, I’ve said throughout most of the season and these playoffs especially that the Panthers are the team to beat and not a team I’m excited to bet against as long as the number is reasonable. The Panthers check all of the boxes for a championship team, and you can argue they should be up 2-0 in this series after having a two goal lead in game 1. The Panthers have now won four of the last five games against the Oilers. The Panthers have won 14 of their last 19 games as a home favorite. The price is reasonable. I’m rolling with the Panthers.

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The Thunder haven’t lost two straight games in two months and they’ve only done it that one time since November 20. The Thunder are also 62-34-4 ATS on the season. There’s plenty of reason to not panic with OKC. With that said, this line is wild. The Pacers didn’t even play great in game 1 and managed to win. The Pacers had 19 turnovers in the first half and got subpar shooting games from Haliburton, Nembhard and Nesmith. For whatever reason oddsmakers haven’t believed in the Pacers from the start and here they are three wins away from a title. The odds also keep increasing for some reason? The Pacers have been a double-digit underdog three times since December 29, and while they’ve covered all three of those games, they’ve also outright won those games. The Thunder should win a must-win game, but would it really shock you if the Pacers continue to do what they’ve done all playoffs? Give me the points.

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I’m not sure what we’re going to get from Walter who will make his second career start and has pitched just five innings in the last two seasons. Bibee is easily the more trustworthy pitcher given the larger sample size and he’s been good at home with a 2.43 ERA and .234 allowed batting average in 29.2 innings. However, the Astros are rolling right now with wins in 10 of their last 13 games, and that’s the type of success I want to grab in the plus money role. Until the tickets stop cashing and the Astros cool off, I’m going to throw the pitching matchups out the window and grab the favorable prices when I can.

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The Yankees have won 10 of their last 11 games against American League opponents, have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record, and have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. While the Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents and have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.

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I’m on the Nationals here. I get that deGrom is the ace of this Rangers rotation, but the Rangers just don’t score enough to warrant laying this kind of price with even deGrom on the bump, and the Nationals have been a team that’s been steadily providing value over the last couple of weeks. I think this is another spot where the Rangers struggle, and the Nationals cash in some value for us here. Give me Washington in this one.

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The Reds have been reeling in the wrong direction of late and their pitching has sputtered after a strong start to the year. Cincinnati has struggled to generate much in the way of offense, totaling just 18 runs in their previous seven games entering Friday night. Nelson has been sharp of late and he’ll need to step up with Burnes done for the year along with other injury concerns in the rotation. The Diamondbacks have a good lineup capable of putting up crooked numbers in a hurry. One need look no further than the ninth inning Thursday against Atlanta for evidence of that. Take the Diamondbacks here as a result.

The Orioles have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a road win. While the Athletics have won nine of their last 10 Friday games against teams that held a losing record. 

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Championship teams rise to the occasion at opportune moments, which is precisely what the Oilers did in Game 1. Courtesy of Connor McDavid, they got a goal from Mattias Ekholm in his second game back from injury. They also received a crucial goal from Viktor Arvidsson, a secondary scoring source, something that has occurred this postseason more than wild, R-rated spring breaks in Florida. And then there's the overtime goal, scored by Leon Draisaitl, one megastar who received the biscuit from another hockey demigod, McDavid. You might have noticed the latter also set up Ekholm for Edmonton's second. That's too much to cope with, even for the defending Cup champs, especially in a raucous atmosphere in which the Oilers are 7-1. 

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I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one. I am not a fan at all of this Diamondbacks bullpen, as they’ve had a tendency to make life a lot harder for the team than things have needed to be in recent games. However, I’d be remiss if I just ignored how good the Diamondbacks looked offensively in that series against the Braves, and Arizona’s just rolling at the plate right now, which is not something we can say for the Cincinnati Reds. I think Arizona finds a way to deliver here and get the job done, so give me Arizona here.

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Texas comes into this matchup after a complete collapse on Thursday night against the Rays, and they have lost three games in a row. The Rangers are just 9-21 on the road this year, while the Nationals are 14-16 at home. Washington has dropped three of their last four, and they have scored a total of seven runs in those four games. The Nats are starting Soroka, who has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. The Rangers are starting Corbin, who has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four outings. I don’t love the pitching matchup here, but I am going to fade Texas on the road, as they have really struggled away from home. 

Rating: 2 Units

You may think the gigantic line of 9.5 is a crazy number for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. In reality, it's not. The Thunder -- who owned the league's best regular season record at 68-14 -- were an astounding 29-2 versus the Eastern Conference this season and a 23-6-2 against the spread (ATS), covering in 79% of those games, which would be the best ever performance over a full season since 2000. Additionally, underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals have historically had issues covering the spread in recent memory, going 3-17 ATS in the last 20 years and are a woeful 8-21 ATS dating all the way back to 1996. Could the Pacers steal one of the games in OKC this series? Potentially. But I don't see any way that's happening tonight in Game 1, especially when the Thunder have covered this number in four straight home games and in 7 of 9 contests at Paycom Center this postseason.

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The Rangers continue to pile up the losses, making them a tough team to back. Leiter has shown flashes of turning things around, but he still has a 5.90 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through 82.1 career innings. The Rays aren’t exactly flashy, but they’ve caught fire over the last few weeks, and Pepiot has allowed 26 hits and nine runs in his last 36 innings. Pepiot hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13.2 innings. You could argue the Rays should be even bigger favorites than they are in this spot. Give me the Rays.

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The Twins have lost each of their last four day games after playing the previous day. While the Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five day games against American League opponents following a win.

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The Phillies are having a rough week, and while Luzardo has been great strikeout-wise, he’s coming off a May where he allowed 43 hits and 21 runs in 34 innings. The Blue Jays are putting together their best week of the season, and while Bassitt has allowed 10 runs in his last nine innings, he has a 2.73 ERA in 33 home innings. The Phillies are still the better team overall, but the Blue Jays are playing the better ball right now. I’ll grab the cheap price with the home team.

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The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine day games at Busch Stadium following a home loss. While the Royals have lost seven of their last eight games following a win.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-31, 15-14 Away) lost four straight series to the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Nationals, but will win this one against the Braves after defeating them in the opening two games. The Diamondbacks are now on a three-game winning streak following last night's 2-1 victory. Merrill Kelly got the win after allowing no runs on one hit with eight strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.

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I expect a tight battle in the opening game of this series. Both teams have struggled to hit the righties over the last 10 days (Kansas City 87 wRC+, St. Louis 72 wRC+), and I’m going with the Cardinals only because Michael Lorenzen has struggled lately. Lorenzen is coming off his worst start of the season. Eight days ago, Lorenzen gave up six earned runs on 11 hits and three walks in a 7-4 defeat to his former team, the Cincinnati Reds. Andre Pallante doesn’t breed confidence either, but he pitched well against the Royals on May 16. The Cardinals bullpen is another reason to take the hosts. It has gone 4-0 with five saves in the last 10 days despite posting a 5.47 ERA. The Royals ‘pen has gone 2-3 with three saves and a 4.06 ERA during that stretch. 

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The Rays have won three of their last five games, while the Rangers have lost five of their last six road games. Tampa Bay has the edge here because they've had a lot of success batting against right-handers, and Mahle has been shaky on the mound, especially on the road, where he gave up seven runs in his last three starts. With Texas' bullpen struggling, expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rays. Texas won't be as successful offensively because they're not hitting the ball as well against right-handers, and Rsmussen has been dominant on the mound in recent starts, and hasn't given up a run in three straight starts. With Tampa Bay having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Texas' offense in check.

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The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven games at Rogers Centre. While the Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites.

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In this Minnesota Twins vs Athletics Prediction, the Twins are coming as -155 road favorites. The Twins are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record this season, and the A’s have been terrible at home, having less home wins than the Twins have on the road. the Twins also have the pitching advantage, as Joe Ryan has been excellent this season, and the bullpen difference is huge, as the Twins have the 5th-best bullpen ERA, while the A’s are last in the league. I expect the guests to get the job done in this one, so take the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline.

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The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball and look to control this game from the first inning. The Cubs, who average 5.82 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Carson Kelly, Kyle Tucker, and the rest of the lineup making contact and putting together strong plate appearances. The Cubs should limit the Reds lineup with Jameson Taillon pitching multiple strong innings with minimal contact and a surplus of strikeouts. The Cubs should win the game with a strong performance at home.

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The Giants have lost four of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day. While the underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Giants and Marlins.

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The Diamondbacks should be favored as they’re the more talented team at home. However, the Diamondbacks have won one game since May 20, and Pfaadt hasn’t been great lately, allowing 27 hits and 16 earned runs in his last 26.2 innings. Pfaadt has given up four homers in his last 11.2 innings. Soroka has had struggles as well, allowing 21 hits and 12 runs in his last 20.2 innings. Still, the Nationals have won nine of their last 12 games. With both pitchers riding the struggle bus, give me the hotter team and a chance to make nearly two times my money.

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The Twins have lost six of their last seven games after going to extra innings. While the Mariners have won six of their last seven day games at T-Mobile Park following a loss, have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents, have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven home games against American League opponents that held a winning record, and have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents.

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The Astros have won each of their last seven day games against AL East opponents following a win. While the Rays have lost five of their last six road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

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The Cubs are the better team, and they are going to have no issue getting the job done in this game. Lodolo sits with a higher ERA of 4.39, and he gave up three runs in his last start against the Cubs. The Cubs' offense is averaging 5.89 runs, and they are going to have no issue running up the score against Lodolo. The Reds' offense won’t even get to their season average, and it’s going to be the Cubs are going to have no issue getting the job done. Back the Cubs on the money line. 

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Tampa Bay was able to erupt late in the game on Thursday night to cruise to the win, and they have been red hot over the last two weeks. The Rays are 11-8 on the road this year, while the Astros are 20-11 at home. Houston is also playing very well right now, and their pitching staff has been a bright spot, with the exception of Thursday. The Astros are starting Valdez, who has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts. The Rays are going with Pepiot, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five. Both of these pitchers have been solid over their last five starts, but Valdez has been elite. Take the Astros here. 

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The Cardinals continue to rack up the wins and are throwing out a solid pitcher in Liberatore, who has allowed seven runs in his last 28.1 innings. Through 59.1 innings, Liberatore has a 2.73 ERA, .229 allowed batting average, and 1.10 WHIP. Liberatore looks like an all-star pitcher this season. The Rangers are in awful form over the last two weeks, and Leiter isn’t a pitcher I’m excited to back. Leiter has been a mess in his limited career, and that includes giving up 22 hits and 16 runs in his last 27.2 innings. Leiter has 21 walks to go with 30 strikeouts, and he has a 4.43 ERA in 22.1 home innings. Give me the Cardinals.

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The Oilers have won five of their last six games, while the Stars have lost four of their last six games. Edmonton has the edge here because they're playing well offensively and scored 13 goals in their last three games. They've also played well on special teams, converting over 23 percent of their power play opportunities. The Stars are fourth in the league in penalty kills, but they're not playing well defensively and gave up 16 goals in their last four games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Oilers. Dallas won't be as successful offensively because they're not playing well and scored only two goals in their last three games. They've done a better job on special teams, converting 22 percent of their power play opportunities. The Oilers are 16th in the league in penalty kills, and they're playing well defensively, giving up six goals in their last three road games, so expect them to keep Dallas' offense in check. Take Edmonton on the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay will start right-hander Shane Baz on Thursday against the Astros. In his previous outing, the 25-year-old held Toronto to one run on four hits and three walks in a 5.2-frame victory. He is 1-3 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.86 WHIP this month (five starts) and 4-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this year (ten starts).

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Philadelphia was able to win a low-scoring game on Tuesday night to start this series, and they continue to hold a slim lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are 18-8 at home this year, while the Braves are 9-19 on the road. Atlanta has really struggled over the last week, and their offense has been very inconsistent. In game one, both starting pitchers have been very solid this year, so I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game. In game two, the starting pitchers have been even better, but I give the edge to Philadelphia, as Wheeler has been elite all season long. 

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Philadelphia was able to win a low-scoring game on Tuesday night to start this series, and they continue to hold a slim lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are 18-8 at home this year, while the Braves are 9-19 on the road. Atlanta has really struggled over the last week, and their offense has been very inconsistent. In game one, both starting pitchers have been very solid this year, so I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game. In game two, the starting pitchers have been even better, but I give the edge to Philadelphia, as Wheeler has been elite all season long. 

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The Timberwolves had a chance to really flip the series on its head, but they missed a real chance to level up the series on Monday. The series now shifts back to the Paycom Center, where the Thunder have won seven of eight games so far during these playoffs. The line has opened with the Thunder as heavy favorites, and that's not surprising given that they covered Games 1 and 2 with ease at home. The Timberwolves are playing for their season right now, and they might get off to a better start, but if the Thunder gets hot early, this one could get ugly in a hurry. I think the Timberwolves have already thrown their two best punches, and it's time for the Thunder to finish the job at home and book their tickets to the NBA Finals. 

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I’m on the Yankees here. I just think that the hot run for the Angels is over and while Tyler Anderson has been a solid option for the Angels this season and has actually been the starter for a lot of their team wins so far, I think the Yankees have a clear edge here and Rodon has been a lot better than I’d have expected him to be this season. I think the Yankees get it done here once again, so give me New York in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Stars have been a great team all year, and you can make a case for them in the big underdog role. The problem is the Oilers have been on a heater all playoffs, and that includes wins in 10 of their last 12 games. The last two games between the Oilers and Stars were ridiculously one-sided. The Oilers have played their best hockey at home, where they’re 30-14-3 on the season. It feels like the Oilers are on a mission to get back to the finals, and they’re not a team I’m eager to step in front of. There’s also a chance the Stars could be without Hintz, who has five goals, six assists and 36 shots in these playoffs. I’m going to lay the price with the Oilers. 

Rating; 2 Units

The Pacers should be favored at home where they have 33 wins and they’ve been the better team in this series. However, the Pacers blew a 20-point lead in game 3, giving the Knicks new life. The Knicks played their best game of the series their last time out, and they’re now 6-1 SU on the road in these playoffs. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between the Knicks and Pacers. I liked the Pacers entering this series, but that game 3 loss rubbed me the wrong way. It’s not easy to win a series when you throw games away. We’re also going to see a Brunson explosion at some point. We had the KAT game already. I’ll grab the bucket with the Knicks.

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In this Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, the Twins are coming as -125 home favorites. The Twins are rightfully favored in this spot, as they have a better overall record, and the Rays are below average at home. The Rays have been red-hot lately, but Joe Ryan has been elite for the Twins this season, and he is coming in excellent form into this matchup. On the other hand, Bradley has been mediocre this season and has been very bad against Twins bats, so I like the Twins here.

Rating; 2 Units

The San Francisco Giants fell to 31-23 on the season following Monday’s defeat against Detroit. It was their fourth loss in seven games, and the Giants mustered just five hits on the afternoon. Hayden Birdsong was charged with a loss, allowing three earned runs across 4.1 innings, while the Giants’ mighty bullpen gave up two hits and two walks in 3.2 scoreless frames. The Giants lean on their pitching staff. Over the last couple of weeks, the Giants have been slashing an underwhelming .229/.315/.363 with 12 home runs in 424 at-bats, but their pitching has been terrific, notching a 2.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, but the Yankees were better in three of the last five. Although the Angels are in good form at the moment, I am backing the Yankees to open the series with a win because I think they have an advantage on the mound. Ryan Yarbrough allowed only four runs in his three starts, and he has strong numbers against the Angels, allowing a .229 BA in 48 at-bats. Jack Kochanowicz, on the other hand, is rather inconsistent this season, and I believe he will have problems against one of the best offenses in the MLB. Go with the Yankees.

The Thunder are the best bet in sports with their 61-32-4 ATS record. It’s hard to find a moneymaker as consistent as the Thunder, so I wouldn’t talk you off the ledge if looking at the small chalk. However, I’m backing the Timberwolves for the same reason I did in game 3. The Timberwolves are a good team that I just don’t think has played their best ball yet, and is a team I don’t think will go down quietly. The Timberwolves hung around with the Thunder for a half in the first two games, and they finally played 48 minutes in game 3. The Timberwolves are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Everybody was so quick to put the Thunder in the finals after the first two games, but I’m here saying not so fast, my friend. Give me the Timberwolves and the bucket in a game they should win outright. 

Rating: 2 Units

These teams went into Sunday heading in opposite directions with the Diamondbacks losing four straight and the Pirates winning four of five. Heaney has pitched fairly well this season, which is surprising given his struggles in recent years. The biggest problem for the Pirates is that they don’t have much in the way of offensive production to scare opposing pitchers. Arizona has a good offensive lineup and they can be extremely dangerous at home. They should be able to do enough against a weak Pittsburgh lineup that the bullpen can’t give the game away. Take the Diamondbacks at home here.

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It's convenient to count out the Knicks in Game 3, as Indiana stole the momentum with a late rally in Game 1 and sustained NY's best shot in Game 2. Losing both games at home puts the Knicks at a disadvantage, but that's how they like it. New York has thrived in an underdog role, storming back from large deficits on the road at Boston last round. Being the top dog joyously celebrated by their home fans didn't suit this squad. Now, they have been written off by most, but these guys play much better with chips on their shoulders. It's easy to get caught up in the moment, but let's not forget that they led by 14 points with under three minutes remaining in regulation in Game 1, as Indiana needed a fortuitous bounce on a last-second shot to send the game to OT. They also defended much better in Friday's loss, but lost their scoring touch after a slow start to the fourth quarter. In short, I feel confident the Knicks and Pacers are more evenly matched than the previous results suggest. It's going to take a lot of guts and determination to win, but the Knicks aren't short in those departments. Bet on the NY ML in Game 3!

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers enter Sunday night’s matchup as one of the league’s most feared offensive powerhouses. They rank third in MLB in runs per game (5.63), lead all teams in batting average (.264), and sit second in home runs (81). Their lineup is loaded from top to bottom—Shohei Ohtani (.296 AVG, 17 HR, 31 RBI) has lived up to the hype in his first season in Los Angeles, and Freddie Freeman is having another MVP-caliber campaign with a .351 batting average and 23 extra-base hits already. Teoscar Hernández leads the team with 41 RBIs and has become a consistent threat in clutch moments. With elite talent and depth, the Dodgers have the rare ability to strike in any inning and from any spot in the order. The Dodgers’ offensive depth often tilts the balance in their favor. Their ability to grind out at-bats and capitalize on mistakes puts pressure on opposing pitchers from the first pitch.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics have won each of their last six day games against NL East opponents following a loss. While the Phillies have lost four of their last five Sunday games as favorites. Additionally, the Athletics have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games and have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home day games.

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The Rays are rolling this week and it makes them hard to ignore with the quick turnaround. I’ll still give the edge to the Blue Jays with Bassitt on the mound, a pitcher who has allowed 26 hits and eight earned runs in his last 23 innings. The Blue Jays have won each of his last four starts. Pepiot is having a decent season and has been better lately, allowing nine runs in his last 22.1 innings. However, the Rays have lost seven of the last nine games Pepiot has pitched. Pepiot has also been hittable at home where he has a 4.28 ERA and .271 allowed batting average in 40 innings. The Blue Jays have burned me recently, but I’ll give them another chance today. 

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Los Angeles was able to pick up the win in extra innings on Friday night, but New York blew several great chances to get the win. The Mets are 17-6 at home this year, while the Dodgers are 13-11 on the road. New York has really struggled over the last two weeks and they keep finding ways to lose. On the other side, the Dodgers have won three games in a row and they are starting to pick up some momentum. LA is going with Gonsolin, who has pitched decently well in his four starts. 

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox have a solid opportunity for a win today against the Rangers. Texas is just 8-16 on the road this season and has lost four of Leiter's last five starts. The White Sox counter with starter Cannon, and they've won three of Cannon's last five starts. Cannon has also been excellent at home this season. In three starts thus far, he is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.17 in front of the home crowd. The White Sox are also matching up with a team that is hitting only slightly higher than they are. While the Sox are hitting just .216 this season, the Rangers are hitting just .227. This should be a low-scoring game, and one that the White Sox will prevail.

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Boston was able to erupt for 19 runs in their win on Friday afternoon and they will look to continue that hot hitting during this doubleheader. The Red Sox are 15-12 at home this year, while the Orioles are 8-18 on the road. Baltimore continues to be the worst team in the AL East and they haven’t shown many signs of turning things around. In game one, I don’t like what I saw from Eflin in his last start, so I will take Boston to win

Rating: 2 Units

I liked the Pacers entering this series and game 1s result only strengthen my stance. While the Knicks haven’t lost two straight games in well over a month, it’s not going to be easy to get off the canvas after such a result. Teams are 970-0 over the last 27 postseasons when having a 14-plus point lead with less than 2:50 left in regulation before that result. It was a historic collapse. We also can’t just say the Knicks will play harder or whatever, as they continue to play their starters into the ground. The longer the Knicks play, the more it favors the opposition. The Pacers are the deepest team in the league. The Pacers have also won five straight road games in these playoffs. Since April 27, the Pacers are 6-1 SU as an underdog. Since December 29, the Pacers are 9-3 SU when underdogs of five or more points. At some point we have to admit these Pacers are good. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nationals have won five straight games, and their offense is absolutely steamrolling during this stretch. Gore leads baseball in strikeouts, and through 24.2 home innings, he has a 2.92 ERA and .176 allowed batting average. Roupp has been hittable all season, especially on the road, where he has a 5.04 ERA and .260 allowed batting average. Roupp is allowing a .272 batting average on the season. I’ll ride the hot hand with the Nats and the more trustworthy pitcher in terms of the road/home splits. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are the safest bet in sports as they’re now 60-31-4 ATS on the season. The Thunder have also won their last four home games by an average of 27 points. The Thunder should be favored and there’s a lot telling us this will be another comfortable win. With that said, I still like the Timberwolves and the points as I think they’re too good of a team to turn down in the big underdog role. The Timberwolves looked in good shape through the first half of game 1 but completely fell apart in the second. While credit goes to OKC, I also don’t believe the Timberwolves will shoot 29 percent from three all series long. Reid and DiVincenzo are much better than what they’ve shown recently. The Timberwolves are also a feisty group that has had great road success in the playoffs the last two seasons. I’m not going to panic from one game. So, while the Thunder have been cash cows the last two years, I’m grabbing the points with the Timberwolves.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hurricanes are going to be favored because they’re at home where they’ve won 36 games, and it’s a must-win if they’re serious about this series. You can’t lose the first two games at home and honestly expect to win. With that said, the value remains with the Panthers and the plus money. The Panthers have won seven of the last 10 games against the Hurricanes and are 5-0 against them in the playoffs all-time. The Panthers have outscored the Canes 18-8 in the last four meetings. The Panthers are back to playing elite level defense and the physicality has picked up. I’m going to keep grabbing the more favorable price with the Panthers when I can get it, as they’re back to looking like the team to beat. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Washington Nationals (22-27, 11-12 Home) went through their worst period of the season, during which they lost seven consecutive games, but responded with five wins in six games. The Nats are currently on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Orioles and defeating the Braves in Game 1 of the current series. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have had the momentum in the AL Central, and will grow their lead here with Flaherty on the mound. Cleveland's rhythm has been thrown off recently, they only made it to the 4th inning on Monday, and will not play again until Wednesday, then have to leave town immediately for this trip to Detroit. On top of this, Cleveland will be starting Slade Cecconi, who has only made one other start this season. That one performance left him with a 5.40 ERA, but it was even worse last season at 6.66 over twenty games. The Detroit offense will generate runs off Cecconi, as Greene and Torkelson have been battling back and forth to see who will lead Detroit in home runs. Flaherty is an experienced pitcher who is coming off a win against Toronto, he will limit the Cleveland offense enough to generate a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees are 7-3 in their last ten games. New York will turn to left-hander Carlos Rodón on Thursday against Texas. In his previous start, the 11th-year MLB pro surrendered one run and two hits in a five-inning win against the Mets. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA/1.02 WHIP in three May starts (17.2 IP) and 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA/0.99 WHIP in ten starts (59.2 IP) this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Edmonton comes into this series as one of the hottest teams in the NHL, as they have won eight of their last nine games. The Oilers were able to shutout Vegas in their last two games and they are playing with a ton of confidence. Dallas eliminated the one seed in the West last round, but they had times where they struggled to slow down Winnipeg’s scoring chances. I know Oettinger was outstanding in that series, but I don’t know if he can continue playing at that level. Edmonton is fully rested and I think we are going to see their offense have a big game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks were expected to beat the Pistons in the first round, but the way they beat the Celtics in the second round was truly impressive. There is a bit of a luck factor involved as the Celtics had to deal with key injuries, but the Knicks showed great resiliency to hang tough and erase two 20-point deficits to win Games 1 and 2 on the road. You can make an argument for either side in what should be a close contest, but I am leaning towards the Knicks, who to draw first blood at home in front of a packed house.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros have done a good job of rebounding from losses over the last week or so, and Brown is on the mound here. With a 1.43 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts, Brown looks like a CY Young contender. Brown has allowed seven earned runs in his last 50.2 innings. In 56.2 innings, Brown is allowing a .170 batting average, and it drops to a .143 allowed batting average in 91 at-bats against left-handed hitters. It’s filthy, folks. It doesn’t matter what you think of Bradley or the Rays as a team. I’m not stepping in front of the Astros with Brown on the mound. The price is reasonable. Give me the Astros.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves will be relying on Edwards to take his game to another level on the offensive end. Rudy Gobert has been anchoring their defense while Julius Randle has been steady as he has averaged 23.9 points so far during these playoffs. The Timberwolves have the advantage of extra rest, but the extra layoff has hurt teams in these playoffs, so I will back the Thunder to strike first at home. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Hurricanes should get the benefit of the doubt because they’re at home with the rest advantage. The Canes have had five days to rest while the Panthers just finished a game seven and are back in another series on the road. The Hurricanes also haven’t lost on the road this postseason. With that said, we’re getting the Panthers and plus money, a spot you don’t see often. this will be just the 10th time since January where the Panthers are an underdog. The Panthers have won seven of the last 10 games against the Hurricanes and that includes outscoring them 13-6 in the last three games. The Panthers have won five of their last seven road playoff games. This has the feel of a long competitive series. I want the more favorable price where I can get it.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Yankees here. I think that while Patrick Corbin is off to a nice start to the year in his Ranger tenure, knowing Patrick Corbin, it feels like these results are unsustainable. Will Warren isn’t my favorite option in the Yankees’ rotation, but the Rangers’ offense continues to be so frustrating and inconsistent to back that I think the Yankees get a big win at home to start the series. Give me the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

I believe the wrong team is favored here. Colton Gordon was excellent in AAA this season, and the Astros' bullpen — which will follow him — ranks second in MLB with a 2.71 ERA. Pitching in the smaller confines of George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, I expect Gordon to be comfortable and deliver a strong outing. On the other side, Tampa Bay is just 1-5 in Ryan Pepiot's last six starts.

Rating: 2 Units

The home team has won each of the last five games between the Mets and Red Sox. The Mets have lost eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents following a road loss and have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record. While The Red have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Mets at Fenway Park while the Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds are playing their best ball of the season with four straight wins, and they should like their chances to keep things rolling against a bad Pirates side. The Pirates have won four games since April 26, and their offense has scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 14 games. In 31.1 road innings, Lodolo has a 1.44 ERA and .186 allowed batting average. In 27 home innings, Keller has a 5.33 ERA and a .279 allowed batting average. There’s no reason to look in the Pirates' direction, especially with a line this soft. Give me the Reds.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m going to side with the Maple Leafs here. I know the Maple Leafs have a history of folding on the big stage. And game sevens have not been kind to Toronto in the core four era. However, Craig Berube has worked wonders with this team and has been there and done that, and he’s won a stanley cup in a game seven for crying out loud. It only takes one for Toronto to change their narrative. They did it in 2023 when they finally got out of the first round and now have a chance to shift another narrative. Florida is going to come out firing here, but I think the Leafs will be prepared for what’s coming and I do think it’s going to come down to one key goal. It’s going to be tight the entire way, but I will back the Leafs to get it done and send Toronto into a frenzy. Give me the Maple Leafs.

Rating: 2 Units

As I’ve said before, the Thunder are going to be favored in nearly every game because they’re the safest bet in sports. The Thunder are 58-31-4 ATS on the season. OKC is also the healthier team. The Nuggets lack depth as it is, so they’re in a world of trouble if Gordon can’t go, while Murray and Westbrook aren’t 100 percent. I’m going to assume Gordon will give it a go with it being a game seven. Either way, we’re getting a boatload of points with the Nuggets, the team that has the best player in Jokic. The underdog has covered eight of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Thunder. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, which includes five outright wins. The Nuggets have covered four straight playoff games as an underdog. The Nuggets are also 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games when underdogs of six or more points. Give me the Nuggets and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ve been on the Cardinals a lot during this winning stretch, and there’s no reason to stop now. The Cardinals have lost once since May 3 and continue to get production across the board. Liberatore has been solid this season, which includes allowing 12 hits and five runs in his last 15.1 innings. The Royals have lost four straight games and have scored just seven runs during that span. Wacha has been strong this season with his 2.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but none of that matters if the Royals can’t string together an offense. Regardless, the Cardinals continue to win and cash tickets. Until that stops, I’m going to keep backing them. Give me the Cards and the cheap price. 

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The Brewers won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last seven. Still, I am backing the Twins in this one. Minnesota is the hottest team in the MLB right now and will start their best pitcher, Pablo Lopez. He had a shaky start last time out against the Giants and allowed four runs, but before that, he didn't surrender more than two in a game. Tobias Myers, on the other hand, allowed multiple runs in three of his five starts, and he will likely pitch for four or five innings maximum. I expect another tight game and a Minnesota win.