CFB Game of the Year

Rating: 10 Units

Interestingly, last year’s CFP Championship Game ‘Tale of the Tape’ showed a 16-3-1 edge in the stats favoring Ohio State over Notre Dame, which won 34-23. This year’s tally shows a 15-4-1 edge in Indiana’s favor.  Indiana has dominated fellow bowl teams this season, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS, and 7-2 ITS by an average net stat win of 145.11 yards per game – including a 4-0 SUATS record versus CFP squads. Leading the charge is IU head coach Curt Cignetti – as reliable as it gets – going 8-0 SU / 12-5 ATS  vs. less than .900 win percentage foes, 19-1 SU / 16-4 ATS as a single-digit favorite and 39-1 SU / 28-7 ATS when allowing 24 or fewer points. Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game all season, and Cignetti boasts a 36-3 SU and 26-10 ATS mark in games when his team is undefeated. The final point: Since the CFP started in 2015, teams scoring over 32 points in the championship game are an undefeated 9-0 SUATS, winning by an average of 22 points per game. 

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 10 Units

I’ll stick with Indiana, but this is sure to be an interesting matchup regardless. The Hoosiers dispatched a good Alabama team in the Rose Bowl thanks to a strong second half. Indiana ended up with 407 total yards, 215 pass yards, 6.2 yards per play, 22 first downs, a nice 9-of-14 on third-down tries, one penalty and zero turnovers. On defense Indiana held the Tide to just 193 yards, 23 rush yards, 11 first downs and 3-of-11 on third-down tries. As for Oregon, they notched 309 yards against Texas Tech, posting 15 first downs and 4-of-19 on third-down tries. The defense carried the day though, giving up just 10 first downs and 6-of-16 on third downs alongside four takeaways. These teams last saw each other back on October 11 in a 30-20 victory for the Hoosiers at Autzen Stadium. Indiana’s defense had two interceptions while allowing just 267 yards, 14 first downs and 3-of-14 on third-down conversion attempts. If the Hoosiers can replicate that—and if the offense can get a little better on third downs themselves (5-of-14)—I think Indiana will be in good shape down the stretch.

Rating: 3 Units

The SEC is 6-1-1 ATS as a bowl dog versus a team coming off back-to-back wins with the last as an underdog (3-0 SUATS versus a team that was an underdog of eight or greater in the previous game). The Canes are 1-2 ATS as the favorite coming off consecutive victories. Miami has been outgained in both CFP wins; its offense tends to disappear for stretches. Mario Cristobal’s team hasn’t trailed in the CFP, but he’s 4-9 ATS against teams with a better record. 

Rating: 2 Units

At least ten Bulldogs won’t be making the bowl trip, instead choosing to travel through the portal. MSU started 4-0 but finished with just one win in its last eight games, while Wake finished off its season 3-1 SUATS and ITS (in The Stats). Jake Dickert took over from longtime coach Dave Clawson and blew through the Vegas 4.5 projected win total. Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS as the favorite against an ACC team and 1-6 SU / 3-4 ATS against winning teams this year. Wake is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS against sub .550 SEC teams, and Dickert is 6-2 ATS as either a favorite or underdog of seven points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings threw for 3,363 yards with a 26-10 TD/INT ratio. The teams are close in the stats, just a .3 difference in points per game; Arizona is a point better on defense; SMU is 13 more yards per game; and even close in third down percentage, with the Ponies 1.4% better. Arizona is 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1990, but coach Brent Brennan is 19-7-1 ATS coming off a double-digit win. Bowlers coming off a loss as the double-digit favorite are 11-1-1 ATS since 2018. SMU outgained opponents by 108 yards per game, and head coach Rhett Lashlee is 4-0 ATS against teams with a better record after a SUATS win. 

Bowl Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Cincinnati was left high and dry at the QB position when Brendan Sorsby entered the transfer portal, and he’s expected to fetch the big bucks. UC is 5-13 ATS since 2000 as a bowler, and Big 12 bowlers have an odd 1-4 SUATS record versus the AAC. Military teams march to the front of the line when a bowl favorite, going 19-1 SU and 16-3-1 ATS, including 10-0-1 ATS if .750 or better. Owners of the Commander-In-Chief trophy are 28-7-1 ATS, and we’re fully confident the Midshipmen’s disciplined approach will take advantage of the Bearcats team that started the season 7-1 but finished 0-4, going 0-4 SUATS / ITS (In The Stats) in those losses. Sorsby left behind 3,380 total yards and 36 combined touchdowns; his two backups completed just six of eight passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Finally, playing on any greater than .666 military bowl team off a win that scored fewer than 50 points in its last game if its overall Yards Per Rush is 4.0 or greater and they are facing a foe that scored less than 40 points in its last game is 21-0-1.

Rating: 2 Units

Highly unusual for a bowl team unable to reach the .500 mark, even with a win in its post-season venture.  Never know what may unfold, but as of this time, the Owls of Rice have a legitimate shot at becoming a member of the worst bowl teams in history, as many an eligible team opted of post-season play.  Fifteenth bowl for Rice (7-7 all time), while just the 3rd for the Bobcats of Texas St, who have already a bowl win over the Owls with 45-21 win in the '23 First Responder. Cats have a stat edge in 9-of-12 games this season, while Tx St has topped 40 pts 5 times this season.

Rating: 3 Units

This game marks the 2nd meeting of the year between the Rebels of Mississippi, & the Bulldogs of Georgia, as well as their 49th overall match, with the 'Dawgs holding a 34-13- 1 advantage.  This season's contest showed Ole Miss with a 28-20 lead on a 75-yd pass from dual-threat QB Chambliss to open the 2nd half. But it wasn't to be with Georgia prevailing 43-35, behind 4 TD passes from Gunner Stockton, along with a 221-88 RY edge.  Rebs' win over Tulane in Playoff Game featured 5 straight plays of over 20 yds, while scoring 30+ pts in 6 straight tilts.  Reb HC Kiffin has moved on to LSU, which can only aide the Bulldog cause.

Rating: 2 Units

As usual, it took a big game (Grandaddy), for another set of opponents to finally meet.  For the 'Tide, this makes it no less than their 74th bowl appearance, with a record of 44-26-3, including 40 combined showings in the traditional "big four"bowls (Rose, Sugar, Cotton, & Orange). Their 3 losses over the course of the season is highly unusual, as is opening the season with a 14-pt loss, & losing to Georgia by 21 pts in SEC title match.  However, their 27-pt scoring run in 34-24 win over Oklahoma in CFP's 1st round sealed the deal.  Hoosiers are sensational, as HC Cignetti has won consecutive AP Coach of the year, with QB Mendoza the Heisman winner, & ranking 8th & 6th in total "O" & "D".  Sorry, 'Tide, not your yr.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon is 2-9 ATS as a bowl favorite since 2015, and 2-4 ATS vs. teams that allow fewer than 16 PPG. Tech earned the bye in part by being 10-1 ATS after outgaining a team by 125 yards or more in their last game. In winning the first Big 12 title in school history, the Guns Up Gang scored 122 points off turnovers. They scored a season-high or second-highest against 11 teams, holding foes to seven season lows in points and yards. Every Tech win was by 21 points or more. Both teams rank in the Top 11 in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, and total defense, and TTU is in the top five in all those categories. The reason we’re not placing our ducks in a row on Oregon is the previously mentioned postseason spread mediocrity. Further proof was the 509 yards they gave up to the Mad Men last week, only five yards fewer than what the Ducks gathered.

Bowl Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Hurricanes picked up their biggest win in two decades by holding off Texas A&M on the road, and this battle features two top 10 defenses in top form. The Canes are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-ACC games but 3-13 SUATS in their previous 16 bowls, although their motivation in some of those games can definitely be questioned. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS as a bowler versus a team off back-to-back SUATS wins. Defending champs off a loss are 7-1 SUATS in the post-season versus a team coming off a W. The Buckeyes are 14-1 ATS against teams that beat opponents by double-digits. This is the third straight Cotton Bowl for OSU, and there is an UGLY BETTY stat to throw a little shade at Brutus-teams in the same bowl game, coming off a loss, are 18-33 ATS, including 0-5 ATS vs. a team coming off two straight SUATS wins and 1-10 ATS as a favorite of five or more. However, CFP teams coming off a loss are 8-2 ATS all time, including 6-0 SUATS if they surrender fewer than 18 PPG, with every win by double-digits and by an average margin of 26 PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

Big 10 bowl teams coming off a loss of 24 or more points, such as NU, are an alarming 1-19 SU and 4-18-1 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS if they allow more than 21 points. Laying doubles has never been a headache for the Utes under Willingham; he’s 45-29-1 ATS, and that includes coming off two straight wins. A motivated Utah team with its starting QB and a few departing the program, vs a Cornhuskers team missing its star QB. Oh, did we mention Utah is ranked? Ruhle is 0-8 vs. the Top 25 at Nebraska, and the Huskers have not beaten a ranked team since 2016, a streak of 29 straight. 

Rating: 2 Units

ASU backup QB Jeff Sims stepped in as the starter after Leavitt’s injury earlier this season, going 2-0 in key starts with strong dual-threat play, including a standout performance versus West Virginia, where he accounted for 207 total yards and three touchdowns. Bowl history does not lean to Duke, as ACC bowl favorites are just 4-7 ATS versus Big 12 opponents, while Arizona State has cashed in its last three bowl games. Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham is also 23-12-1 ATS all games, including 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS versus sub .666 foes, much more encouraging than Duke’s Manny Diaz, who is a feeble 4-12 ATS of late against non-conference adversaries. Bowl favorites like the Blue Devils that allow more than 24 PPG, off a conference championship game, are 3-13-1 ATS. We expect the phonies from Durham to get exposed in a high-stakes game. 

Rating: 2 Units

Head coach Kirk Ferentz, who has seen it all in his 27 years at the helm of Hawkeye football, brings a 4-1 ATS record as a dog of more than 3 points versus the SEC. And while Iowa has been a bowl regular over the last ten seasons, Vandy will be playing in back-to-back bowls for the first time in a long time. The Hawkeyes also bring a 14-9-1 ATS mark in their last 24 bowl games (10-5-1 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points), opposed to the Commies’ 1-4 SUATS failure in bowl games when coming off a win of 7-plus points. In addition, the Reliaquest Bowl has favored underdogs of late, as they’re 6-2 ATS, including five outright wins. Vanderbilt’s Lea continues to weave his magic – 17-8 SU and 16-6-1 ATS the past two seasons – but this is only the eighth time in those games he’ll be laying points. Remember the Hawkeyes went 7-0 ATS this year against teams with a winning record, and finished 4-0 ATS as a dog. Iowa springs the upset

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Mean Green had been a scoring machine all season before being held to just 21 points by the Green Wave, but the fact is, North Texas still owns the No. 1 overall-ranked offense in the country. You know the saying, “Something’s gotta give,” and that’s the case here with the Aztecs’ No. 7 overall-ranked defense taking center stage. UNT, as .500 bowl chalk of 7 or more points who allow 30+ PPG are 2-8 ATS – but the public pushed the line the wrong way, taking NT from -6 to -3. As for previous bowl performances, American bowlers are 2-5 SUATS against Mountain West reps. Then there’s second-year Fresno head coach Sean Lewis and his 11-7 ATS dog log off a loss, including 4-0 ATS if an underdog of 5 or fewer points. And don’t forget that San Diego State owns 100 yards the better defense in this contest. Finally, bowl favorites who allow more than 24 PPG, off a conference championship loss, are 3-13-1 ATS, including 0-5-1 ATS if the loss was as a favorite. 

Rating: 2 Units

Unlike the Cougars and Irish, Georgia Tech blew a golden opportunity to play in the ACC Championship game by losing three of its final four games of the regular season. In fact, the Rambling Wreck came within an eyelash of losing all four, barely holding on to beat Boston College, 36-34.  BYU is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS versus the ACC, and Big 12 bowlers off a loss are 7-2 ATS vs. ACC (3-0 SUATS if .750 or greater). Now, check out the wreck that is Tech: 0-6 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow bowlers this year, 1-7 SUATS as a bowler off a loss to Georgia, and 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in this series. Yikes. We will tell you that the Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS as a bowl dog of more than 3 points of late; however, there’s that aforementioned 1-3 SUATS season closer to consider. 

Rating: 2 Units

PSU is 21-7 SU / 20-8 ATS in bowl games when the underdog by four or fewer points (3-0 SUATS against sub .667 teams). The Nittany Lions are an impressive 12-3 SU / 9-5-1 ATS vs the ACC, including 2-0-1 ATS as the dog. ACC bowl teams are a dull-edged 3-14 SU / 4-13 ATS versus the Big 10, including 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if the ACC team has a less than .600 W-L record. The Tigers are also 1-5 this year against other bowl teams. The heavily hyped Tigers were #1 in returning production and promptly stained their bedsheets with a 1-3 start. Penn State fell apart mid-season with a six-game losing streak, but fi nished 3-0 and went 4-0 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games. Consider that the Nittany Lions are 37-3 outright in their last 40 meetings versus unranked teams.

Bowl Game Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

 ECU is the bowl’s defending champion, but the underdog in this bowl is 1-4-1 ATS in the last six, and the American Conference is 3-9 ATS versus the ACC. A strange but true stat that could have come from the mind of Rod Serling: AAC teams that score 35 or more coming off a win are 0-5 ATS in bowl games. There may be no better match of a city and a university than Pat Narduzzi at Pitt; his teams are 19-6 SU / 17-8 ATS after an ATS loss. ECU is only 2-5 ITS (In the Stats) against fellow bowlers. “Nails” Narduzzi is also 6-1 ATS coming off a loss of 30 plus points and a sharp 13-6-1 ATS as the favorite against a team coming off a win. Consider that Pitt is 11-2 SUATS as a favorite under Narduzzi when they allow an average of less than 100 rushing yards per game.

Rating: 2 Units

There’s nothing special about this Minnesota team. Compared to fellow bowlers this year, they’re 1-5 SU and ITS (In the Stats), by an average of minus 141. In fact, The GGs went a frightening 1-9 ITS in their last 10 games, by an average of -145 per game, a number usually associated with a team sitting at home during bowling season. New Mexico is one of the best college football stories of 2025, going 9-3 under fi rst-year coach Jason Eck, who won Mountain West Coach of the Year while his son Jaxton was named the MWC’s co-Defensive Player of the Year. The Lobos missed out on the computer tiebreaker that sent Boise State and UNLV to the conference title game, but UNM went 5-1 ATS against fellow bowl teams this year. Traditionally, MWC bowlers come up short. The Lobos are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in bowl games, but with Minnesota leaking fluids and New Mexico riding a six-game win streak, we will break tendencies and grab what should be a more motivated New Mexico team.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rainbow Warriors didn’t face a ranked team when they played, while the Golden Bears played three teams that spent time in the CFP rankings and beat both Louisville and SMU. But…Cal is just 23-45 ATS as long-term road chalk, including 14-30 ATS when coming off a win. Da Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowls, 1-5 ATS coming off a win, then facing a Mountain West team, and 4-12 SU / 3-11 ATS as a road favorite. UH is 9-0 ATS in their last nine as a home dog, and HC Timmy Chang is 17-6 ATS at home and 5-0 ATS off a win. Finally, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 13-0 ATS in their last 13 lined home games.

Rating: 3 Units

This contest features a pair of veteran bowl outfits, with the Cardinals of Louisville having already appeared in 27 such extravaganzas, with an overall bowl record of 13-13-1, having an 8-season streak from 2010 through 2017.  For the Rockets of Toledo, this makes it 23 bowls (12-10 SU), beginning with the '69 Tangerine, & ending with this season's Boca Raton, entering off 2-5 holiday run, with HC Candle taking the head job at Connecticut.  Cards' year has seen the bottom fall out after a 7-1 start, ranking 14th in the land, before an 0-3 run, including a 38-6 loss to Smu, destroyed all hopes, regardless of season ending 41-0 rout of KY.  Edge to Rocket "D" namely 3rd, 4th, 8th, & 8th in total, scoring, run & pass.  Grab the pts

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars won three of their last five to become bowl eligible and went 5-1 ITS (In the Stats) in their final six games. The Coogs are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS versus Mountain West teams coming off a loss, while the Aggies are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven bowl games, 2-5 SU against other bowl teams this year, and had an average stat loss of 102 yards per game. Utah HC Bronco is 16-4 SU / 13-7 ATS “between the 3’s” against teams with an identical record but is a bust as a favorite against .500 teams when favored under seven points – going 1-4-1 ATS. 

Rating: 2 Units

JMU is 3-0 ATS as the dog off back-to-back wins since joining FBS, plus 10-3 SU / 9-4 ATS against non-conference opponents, including 6-1 ATS under Chesney. They are also 21-5 SU under Chesney, and if he does that kind of work at UCLA, the Bruins will be a player in the Big 10 quickly. Oregon isn’t in the mood for Cinderella stories, as proven by a cruel record against sub .750 teams under Dan Lanning, 30-3 SU and 30-11 ATS, and an equally sharp 15-5 SU against .750 or greater. We think of the Ducks as a flashy, high-scoring team, but their defense held five teams to season-low or second-lowest yardage this season. Oregon is also 4-1 ATS against bowl teams .840 or better, so we do think the Ducks will jump-start Bob Chesney’s UCLA career, but before you jump on the Ducks, consider that playing against any college bowl double-digit favorite coming off a SU victory and 3 ATS wins if they were not favored by 17 or more points in their last game is a perfect 11-0 ATS. This game will be closer than you think…

Rating: 2 Units

Jon Sumrall will coach Tulane for the duration before he takes the Gators’ job full-time. Tulane is 4-1 ATS against a bowler off a win, Sumrall is 8-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS when not a double-digit favorite coming off a win of eight or greater. Ole Miss has numbers on its side, too. Home teams in the CFP were 4-0 SUATS last season and 14-4 SUATS in bowl games since 1992. The question is, will the new Mississippi boss, Pete Golding, be the same as the old boss? No team in college football was more offensively successful passing the ball in the fourth quarter than the Rebels, with an average completion eight yards better than the norm. It may take that kind of effort for the Rebs to move on.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

OU is 10-17-1 ATS in bowl games versus teams batting .750 or better, and the late Warren Zevon’s favorite college football coach, Brent “Excitable Boy” Venables, is 4-10-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss. Teams in the CFP coming off a SUATS loss are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. Finally, Alabama is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in bowl games coming off a SUATS loss versus an opponent coming off a win when the Tide isn’t favored by seven or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Against other bowlers, the Wolf Pack is giving up 475 YPG. NCSU gave up 500 or more yards in three of its last five games. Bowls have not been terribly kind to the Raleighites either; NC State is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their previous five trips to the lanes. Meanwhile, Memphis, unlike NC State, fares well against bowl teams, carrying a +125 edge in defensive yardage. The Tigers are also 4-0 SUATS in their last four bowl games, and 3-0 SUATS in bowl games when they have the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

Delaware is 1-5 ATS this season, either favored or as a dog of five points or fewer, and 0-3 ATS against a team coming off back-to-back wins (Louisiana has won four straight after being 2-6). The Cajuns not only have the momentum but also the numbers backing them up; favorites in bowl games with a .500 record are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS since 2016 if they won 5+ games the season before. UL is also an impressive 5-0 ATS in outright wins as a favorite against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The knock on the Blue Broncos is they can’t handle a Power 4 team and the evidence is damning. BSU last beat a major conference team in 2019 vs. Florida State, and the Broncos are 0-4 outright vs. the Big Ten. Washington is 2-0 lifetime vs. Boise in bowl games but the Huskies are 0-5 ATS off one win versus a team off a win. Head coach Jedd Fisch is 4-10 ATS coming off a win, including 3-9 ATS when on the road. Boise State is also 11-2 ATS lifetime in games as a dog of seven points or greater versus teams that boast a .500+ win percentage. The Broncos will be happy to call, going 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS. If Boise QB Maddux Madsen can run the ball to take the heat off 1,000-yard rusher Dylan Riley, the Huskies will be in trouble: they are 0-4 this season when giving up 140 rush yards or more, and that includes the bad loss vs. Wisconsin. Consider that bowl dogs on a three-game win streak are 50-25-1 ATS since 1998, which coincidentally is about the time Boise State began to enter the national conversation.

Rating: 2 Units

The problem is, despite upset wins over South Florida and Memphis in its previous two games, this year’s vessel is 0-4 ‘In The Stats’ in its last four games. The seafarers also surrendered 500-plus yards in three of their previous six games. Yikes! The Black Knights are 13-4 SU and 12-6-1 ATS in this series when they manage to grind 200-plus rushing yards, including 5-1 ATS as a dog, and head coach Jeff Monken stands 14-8-1 ATS as a dog versus .750 or greater opposition, including 8-2 ATS from Game Eight out. Plus, Army is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in this series when Navy has the better record, including 3-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. The U.S. Military Code of Conduct is one-hundred percent behind looking to get some payback if your side was embarrassed in the previous game, and right on cue, we note that Army thumped these guys last year, winning 31-13 as 6-point dogs – and that the Black Knights are a money-making 5-0 ATS the last five games in this series when wearing the revenge cape! 

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Defending national champions are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS when facing a team with a .916 or better record in a conference title game. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games, 13-2 ATS coming off a road win, and are 9-1 ATS this season, while the Hoosier Daddies are 6-5 ATS. Ohio State is 10-4-1 ATS off a B1G win of four or more, and this was a BIG win, ending the four-year torture that was the Michigan series. This matchup is the highlight of the sports weekend. Consider that  playing on any underdog of 4 or more points from Game Ten out if both teams are undefeated and the dog allows 14.5 or fewer PPG is 10-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cougars were thrashed 29-7 by Tech earlier this season and frankly the Red Raiders are breaking land speed records this year. They are 10-1 ATS as a double-digit conference favorite and 6-0 ATS when coming off a home shutout win. Double-digit conference title favorites are 4-0 SUATS when playing a team coming off a pair of SUATS wins and it’s by an average of 31 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

The Rebs overcame a two-game losing streak mid-season to finish 4-0 and are 6-0 ATS in the second of consecutive road games while stud RB Jet Thomas seems to have bounced back from a bad leg, running for 103 and four TDs in an easy win over Nevada. Boise won eight this year, UNLV got 10 the hard way, and the records show the team with the lower win percentage is 3-7 SU in the MW championship game, including 1-5 outright against teams batting .800 or better. BSU finished 1-3 ATS in its final four games, and this edition of the Broncos will not be mentioned for the CFP, unlike last year’s team, which earned a berth. Consider that UNLV Head Coach Dan Mullen is 62-14 lifetime anytime his team has the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

Freeman has roughed up the Cardinal in their last two meetings by scores of 56-23 and 49-7. What’s even scarier for Stanford tonight is the fact that Notre Dame has a huge ATS advantage in this matchup. The Irish have cashed tickets in five of the last six series meetings with the Cardinal, besides standing 16-3 ATS as a favorite when coming off a win as chalk. Frank Reichand company had better make a new plan, with Stan checking in at 2-11 ATS versus .800 or better opponent, 2-10 ATS as dogs of 20 or more points, and 2-12 ATS when coming off a win.

Rating: 4 Units

Offense of the Mustangs finally getting the respect it deserves, as we've documented over the past few years, such as a 1,052-619 total yard edge over its last 29 games, with accompanying +289½ ATS edge.  Bears solid dog play, but on 4-10 LA with just 12 RYs in loss to Stanford.

Rating: 5 Units

Bulls from 10-22 ATS slide, to today's 5-2 log, posting 54, 63, 48, 55, & 48 pts in those covers, with QB Brown the nation's total "O" leader (344.3 ppg).  Owls in off allowing 640 yds.  'Nuff said.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

UF won this one by 20 last year, so FSU goes into revenge mode with a 5-1 ATS mark in such games since 2021. The Gators are 0-4 ATS when they enter this game with a losing record, and, for some odd reason, are 0-5 ATS in their last home game versus a team with a sub-.500 mark. Consider that FSU is 10-1 straight up in this long rivalry when they own the better record, including 5-0 ATS when swamped. Finally, teams coming into the final game of the college football season and one game under .500 and need a win to even up their win-loss percentage and become bowl-eligible and are coming off a conference loss are 20-7-1 ATS. And if they didn’t lose to the spread by 17 points or more, they zoom to 16-2 ATS.

Rating: 4 Units

Bayou faithful praying for this season to grind to a halt, with 5 straight spread losses, from 25th to 99th in total "O", in trying to dent Sooners' 11th-ranked "D".  Bengals' firing of HC Kelly the final nail.  Scamper away.

Rating: 3 Units

In this series, the Commodores are 5-0 ATS as visitors and 8-2 ATS as road dogs. Vandy is also 8-0 ATS in the last road game and 6-1 ATS on the road in game 12. The 19th-ranked Vols are 0-3 ATS at home against SEC revenge, a mediocre 2-9 as a conference home favorite of seven or fewer. The Vols also don’t close out their seasons well, thanks to a 2-6 Game 12 record. Finally, the Volunteers are 0-4 SUATS in their Last Home Games vs. teams with a better record. 

Rating: 5 Units

The Scarlet Knights boss Greg Schiano is 4-12 SU in season finales and a flat-out weird 0-5 ATS in last home games the past five years. Rutgers is also 2-11 ATS as the home dog, and Penn State has treated them as such over the years. Lifetime, the Lions are 33-2 versus Rutgers, and in-season curtain closers, PSU is 28-12 SU. Toss in Penn State being 7-1 ATS coming off a win versus a team coming off a loss as an underdog. Call this a mini-clincher, Rutgers, despite having a defensive-oriented head coach, has given up an average of 426 YPG while the Nits are surrendering 317. Despite the firing of a head coach and the loss of their number one quarterback, surrendering is the last thing we expect from Penn State.

Rating: 2 Units

One of the odder stats you will read pops up this week: Kansas State is 11-3 ATS after allowing 35 points the previous week. The Buffaloes are lost on the range right now with no bowl hopes,  a quarterback quandary that will likely need an NIL fix, and a 0-4 SUATS and ITS (In the Stats) streak, lowlighted by a stats average of minus 224 per game. The Prime shine has been buffed off in Boulder; how Deion Sanders recovers will be one of his most significant professional challenges. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Defensively, the Aggies rank top-5 nationally in scoring defense (15.2 PPG allowed) and are second in sacks (3.8 per game) and tackles for loss (8.2 per game). The Horns boast a top-10 offense (36.8 PPG). The bad news for the Aggies is a 1-10 ATS record in Game Twelves of the season, which contrasts sharply with the Hook ‘Em’s 5-0 ATS mark in Game Twelves. To add to the excitement, Texas is 12-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win against undefeated teams. Finally, AP Preseason No. 1 teams are 7-4 SU and ATS versus undefeated foes, including a flawless 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog of 3 points or fewer. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Aggies are 12-2 ATS coming off a home game versus an opponent coming off an away game. They are also 11-2 ATS on Saturdays, and 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

If defense wins games, then no question as to which way to go here, with Aztecs allow only 263 yards per game, with corresponding 228-98 point edge L9 tilts.  Improved Lobos a 14-24 spread dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Huskers carry a double-revenge chip into this contest, having suffered a pair of 13-10 losses in the past two seasons under Matt Rhule, both games where Nebraska won the stats. A 3-0 ATS record in games after allowing 35-plus points catches attention. So does the Silk’s 19-5 SU and 15-9 ATS mark in Last Home Games against foes with a .636 or fewer win percentage. It fits perfectly with Rhule’s 8-2 ATS career record as a home dog in games where both teams have a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Navy has an all-time 27-14-1 ATS record on the AAC road and an impressive 8-0 ATS streak in their last eight games following a SU home underdog victory (beat USF 41-38 as a 9.5-point underdog in their previous game 12 days ago). Their triple-option offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in rushing, surpassing 300 yards per game. Conversely, Memphis started strong as the top-ranked Group of Five team but struggled in November, scoring just 20 points combined in recent games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Welcome to the “Michigan MAC Trophy” contest, where this season Western is bowl-bound, while Eastern will not only host this game but also spend the holidays at home for the second year in a row under 12-year head coach Chris Creighton. Both teams are on winning streaks, which favors the Eagles, who are 33-16-1 ATS as a dog under Creighton against opponents coming off a win, including 21-6 ATS as a dog of 10 or fewer points. We also didn’t mention EMU’s 10-2 ATS record when both teams were favored in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

This edition of Gators football is a long, long way from the Head Ball Coach days, but UF is 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this rivalry. When Vegas makes Florida a home underdog, the Gators respond with a 9-1 ATS in the last ten games run, plus UF is 5-1 ATS in a single conference revenge game. Tennessee often plays down to its opponent, 1-5 ATS in the last six versus a .400 or worse SEC foe, plus 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as a road favorite, and 1-5 ATS when the Vols give up 27 or more. Guess what? The UT defense is surrendering 29 PPG and 387 YPG, giving a sometimes frustrating Florida offense some hope. Plus, Tennessee has lost 10 straight games in The Swamp. Consider that Tennessee Head Coach Josh Heupel is 8-18 ATS away in conference games when not coming off a double-digit loss, including 1-8 ATS when his team is allowing 21.7 PPG. 

Big10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Okay, what do we have here…a 7-3 team coming off a road win, taking on a 4-6 team that fired its head coach earlier and is using their second-string quarterback, and WTF? The 4-6 team is a nearly 10-point favorite?! The Nittany Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in this series, while already bowl-bound Nebraska is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS against teams with losing records, by an average of 42.3 points. Consider that PENN STATE is 3-13 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, including 0-7 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Arkansas has lost eight straight, but five of those defeats were by three points or fewer. They can move the ball behind QB Taylen Green and the second-best rushing attack in the SEC, and in the last six of this series, the Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS. Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when an underdog of 10 or greater, 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 5-1 ATS after LSU. Texas is 1-4 ATS as a conference favorite of 12 or greater, 3-7 ATS in the last 10 versus .333 teams.  

Rating: 3 Units

QB Jayden Maivia is improving with every game and has not one but two strong WRs in Biletnikoff candidate Makai Lemon, plus Ja’kobi Lane. In this series, the visitor has been the bagman, going 3-0 ATS while the Trojans are an unsheathed 5-0 ATS in recent Game 11s and sit at 3-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or larger. The Trojans haven’t conquered Oregon since 2016, so this becomes a triple-revenge game where USC shines at 8-3 ATS in a triple vengeance conference battle, including 4-0 ATS as the underdog. A 2-0 finish (Oregon then UCLA) may have the 15th-ranked Trojans penetrating the CFP, and that leads us to the fact that USC’S Lincoln Riley is 7-4 ATS as a dog versus .750 or greater teams, including 4-0 ATS on the road.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

UK lost starting QB Zach Calzada after just two games; however, he’s available now if needed. Kentucky head coach is more than happy with Boley, citing the quarterback’s upside and command of the offense. Vandy didn’t look so dandy in an overtime win on this field against Auburn two weeks ago, and a look-ahead to hated Tennessee is a distinct possibility. Consider that Stoops is 19-9-1 ATS in games when the Wildcats surrender fewer than 24.5 PPG, including 15-3-1 ATS after scoring 35-plus points in the last game.  

Rating: 3 Units

Third year USF head coach Alex Golesh has battled the Blazers twice since he took over in Tampa, getting blasted 56-35 by UAB in 2023, but claiming their revenge last year with a ten-point victory at home as 14-point chalk. The price is way up this year, though, with the Bulls currently favored by 21.5 points on the road. They do bring some solid ATS numbers into this clash: 4-1 ATS after playing Navy, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when facing a .400 or less opponent, and 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points. The Blazers’ chances here are best spelled out by their 1-7 ATS mark when playing with single revenge, and a 1-4 ATS record in this series when coming off a SUATS loss. South Florida’s 5-1 ATS log when coming off an upset loss as a favorite seal the deal this afternoon. Bulls wreak havoc in the Birmingham

Rating: 2 Units

One of these 2 has been a pleasant surprise, & it isn't the Bears, who've covered exactly one game since Sept 6th, with a "D" that has been taken to the woodshed in 3 of their last 4 outings, & shouldn't be able to contain 'Cat QB Fifita (2,494 passing yards & 24 TDs), nor RB Mahdi (639 rushing yards).

Rating: 3 Units

If ever a game had WTF – Wrong Team Favored - written all over it, it’s this one. After reviewing each team’s performance this season, a 99-yard-per-game defensive disparity clearly favors the Warriors. Hawaii’s 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS record in this series when they have a winning record also stands out. Meanwhile, the Rebels are unraveling, entering tonight’s game on a 1-5 ITS (In The Stats) run, which directly reflects their current condition. Remember, the Sinners started the season with a six-game winning streak before slipping. A 3-1 ATS record as underdogs in this series during revenge runs further supports the choice. Now, consider that when we find underdogs with a .444 or greater probability of winning, taking the field with an extra week of rest can sense a winning season within reach. Since 1980, their teams are 86-40-2 ATS overall in this role. Additionally, if they were either a dog or a favorite of -3 or fewer points in their last game, they go 30-8 ATS add to this if they were either a dog or a favorite of -3 or fewer points in their last game and are coming off an ATS win—they soar to 23-2 ATS. We’ll grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cajuns have struggled on the road (1-4) and in conference play, but their rushing attack remains a bright spot (186 yards per game, 35th in FBS). They average 4.7 yards per carry (38th), and Louisiana defeated ASU in a dominant 55-19 win in Lafayette last November, which ended the Red Wolves’ division hopes. However, the Red Wolves are 6-2 SUATS at home when seeking revenge and 25-5 ATS at home when playing with a revenge motive. Look for the Wolves to win their bowl badge tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami struggled in its 24-3 loss at Toledo on November 12, where backup QB and fifth-year senior Henry Hesson was woeful (11/38, 147 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs), replacing injured starter DeQuan Finn, who left the program on November 14 to focus on NFL Draft preparation after missing the Toledo game due to illness. Nonetheless, the RedHawks boast a +4 turnover margin (28th nationally) and rank in the top 15 in pass defense (6.0 yards allowed per attempt). A Miami win would extend their bowl streak to five straight and revive East Division hopes. With the favorite in Miami games going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS this season, we’re backing the RedHawks.

Rating: 2 Units

We’d usually be aimed to snap the rubber band with the Chippewas coming off a bowl-eligible clinching, double-revenge victory over Ohio U, except WMU will be stepping onto the field with a heavy dose of triple-revenge against the Huskies. Last year’s loss was not only a triple punch to the gut it also cost the Broncos a winning season in 2024.The sled dogs just 1-11 ATS after a win, and 1-9 ATS in their last ten games on Tuesdays.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS after an unlined game, 4-1 ATS at home with SEC revenge, and not only that, but the Lane Train sits 7th in the CFP standings, and there’s no way Kiffin will allow his team to lose focus when one more win should wrap up a playoff spot for the Rebels. Lane is 37-19-3 ATS in conference games. He wins outright as a favorite, and as if he needs more material to boost his ego, Lane can look to that fact that playing on any SEC team seeking triple-revenge exact if they scored 33-plus points in their last game and they are facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss is 14-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Maryland is last-to-the-finish-line 1-10 SUATS in Game Ten of the season. The Illini made some major noise earlier in the year with a 5-1 start, but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Washington forced Bret Bielema and company to reassess their season goals. A convincing win over Rutgers two weeks ago could be the buy sign for Illinois, especially with the Illini 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season, and 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS versus .500 or fewer foes in ’25 – with an average win by more than 34 PPG! Additionally, the chalk in the Illini’s eight games this season stands 7-1 ATS. 

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Sparty is 26-11 SU and 24-13 ATS in the last 37 home games, including 18-6 ATS as either the favorite or the underdog of 10 or less. Still a Spartans skeptic? Consider that Penn State is 5-10 ATS as a conference road favorite when coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS when coming off consecutive losses.

Rating: 3 Units

The SU result is a foregone conclusion. Against the spread, the Green show up with a flashy 7-1 ATS record coming off a win as a favorite, and while the Blazers are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in this series as of late, they’re an undependable 8-25-1 ATS as a dog in games they lose outright. Like this one.  

Rating: 3 Units

TheTigers are just 7-13 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses since 1990, including 3-9 ATS at home, and 0-6 ATS versus a foe coming off a SUATS loss. Not the Hogs, who bring a 7-1 ATS record into the game when coming off a SU loss and facing a conference foe. We saved the best for last, though, and it arrives in the form of the fact that playing on any SEC team seeking triple-revenge exact if they scored 33-plus points in their last game and they are facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss is 14-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The upstart 6-3 Monarchs, who last had a winning season in 2016, finally made it to bowl eligibility under sixth-year head coach Ricky Rahne with a 31-6 blowout of UL Monroe two weeks ago. Rahne, a former Penn State assistant, has a mixed record with ODU, going just 5-11 ATS when laying points (2-8 ATS at home), but flipping to 25-15 ATS when taking them. This makes the underdog 36-20 ATS in his games, which is where we’re headed here. Troy enters with a 4-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record as a single-digit underdog in this matchup, including 4-1 ATS as a road dog. They’ve also won five of their last six games straight-up and against the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

Toledo remains an enigma this season, with a 5-0 record at home but 0-4 on the road. This is the main reason they are one of only five FBS teams surpassing opponents by more than 200 yards per game, thanks to a defense that ranks No. 2 nationally (235 YPG). Yet, they are tied for fifth in their conference. Go figure. Meanwhile, the steady RedHawks are in a four-way tie at the top of the MAC. Miami has handled the ball carefully, turning it over just three times in its last six games, and has won 11 straight when winning the turnover battle (5-0 this year). Considering the Rockets are 2-12 ATS after a home win, and 2-11 ATS after a home game against a foe coming off a road game, look for Miami to earn its bowl eligibility tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

If you like Bobcats, you’ll be interested to know that Ohio U enters tonight’s MACtion at 11-2 ATS, coming off an ATS win when facing a foe coming off an ATS loss, and they've covered 10-2 ATS in their last dozen games on Tuesday. So where does that leave these two teams? Tied with two other teams (Buffalo and Western Michigan) at 4-1 atop the MAC for openers. A quick look at the conference shows only one bowl-eligible team, and that’s 6-3 OU. With 5-win WMU playing with double revenge and aiming for a bowl-eligible win, we’ll ignore the team trend and back the Broncos tonight.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Hawaii let us down last week, but head coach Timmy Chang stands 15-6 ATS at home, including 11-0 ATS over the last eleven games, and 7-0 ATS with a win percentage of .333 or greater. That, and San Diego State’s disturbing 1-8 ATS skid as a regular-season favorite versus greater than .600 foes coming off a loss, is enough to get us interested. Chang is 6-0 ATS with revenge coming off a double digit loss when facing a .400 or greater opponent. Finally the Warriors are 14-1 ATS off a road game versus foes off a home game.

Rating: 2 Units

The streaky 3-5 Bruins need wins in three of their final four games to qualify for their first bowl game since joining the Big Ten. It won’t happen at Ohio State next week, which closes the window drastically and makes this game mandatory for UCLA. The Huskers fell 27-20 at home as 7.5-point favorites to the Bruins last season, but we can’t lay points against a Nebraska squad with 79 YPG and a better defense. Add UCLA’s disappointing 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS failure at home versus avenging foes, and we’ll take Big Red in a close one

Rating: 3 Units

Nevada’s anemic 1-6 ATS record on this field makes tonight’s contest a ‘going through the motions’ sort of game for the Wolf Pack. That works for us, considering Utah State’s sterling 11-2 ATS mark in its last 13 home games, and a 10-2 ATS ledger in games when coming off an away contest versus foes off a home game. 

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The 8-1 Cavaliers are the ACC representative in the first CFP bracket, even though they’re ranked 14th, but the ACC has to get someone in there. The Wahoos are 0-3 ATS at home off consecutive road games, 1-8 ATS in Game 10, and 3-7-1 ATS as a conference favorite of 7 or more. Wake was badly outclassed last week by Florida State, but the trends for this week are positive, including a 6-0-2 ATS mark in the last eight games of this series. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have a history of recovering well after playing the Seminoles, going 6-0 ATS post-FSU. Wake is also 3-1 ATS in the last four with single conference revenge. Consider that the Devils are 20-8 ATS coming off a SUATS loss against team coming off an ATS win including 8-1 ATS with a winning record. 

Rating: 3 Units

Missouri team led by Coach Eli Drinkwitz (for now) is 3-0 ATS in their last three with double revenge, 3-0 ATS in their  last three games versus unbeaten opponents, 6-1 ATS as a home dog of seven or less, and 11-2 ATS when coming off a defeat. Drinkwitz is known as an offense-minded coach, and he’s working with a new QB for a matchup against one of the toughest Ds in the country.  Since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the road as favorites, coming off a SUATS win from Game Nine, are now 41-65-1 ATS against conference foes they’re trying to avenge. Additionally, teams that won 10 or fewer games the previous season, went 8-25 ATS overall in those games, including 4-18 ATS against opponents who were NOT favored by 6 or more points in their last game.

Rating: 3 Units

Indiana is 2-4 in the last six games of the series, 1-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games, and the Hoosier Daddies are 1-3 in Game 10s. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in Game 9 and 7-1 ATS before Michigan State, plus 4-1 ATS as a conference home dog of 12 or more. After playing Ohio State, the Lions are 3-1 ATS, and new #1 QB Ethan Grunkemeyer had a predictable rough first start replacing the injured Drew Allar vs the Buckeyes. PSU is the underdog for the first time in 27 prior meetings with Indiana, and Happy Valley has a 25-2 record in this series. They’re a double-digit dog in a series where they have won 13 straight times while hosting. Finally, consider that playing against any 9-0 or better college football road favorite from Game Ten onward if they’re facing an opponent that allows 23.0 or fewer points per game and the undefeated team has won 21 or fewer of its last 22 games outright, is 3-22 ATS, including 1-18 ATS against a foe coming off a conference contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Trojans are 0-5 ATS in Game 9s, plus 0-3 ATS in the first of back-to-back conference home games. It doesn’t get better when we tell you the Trojans are 1-7 ATS when coming off a road win as the favorite.  USC is also 2-6 ATS vs. an opponent off a bye and 2-10 ATS off a road win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are a pristine 5-0 ATS in ninth games, 4-0 ATS on the road coming off a bye, and 11-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Big 12 may be too big for the Knights, and 1-4 in conference play is just the mustard in a Cuban sandwich. (Somehow, the tip of the iceberg didn’t seem right for South Florida.) USF is 0-4 ATS in the last four in a conference revenge game, 2-6 in their last eight Game 9s, 2-10 ATS when both teams are coming off SUATS losses, 2-16 ATS off a road game versus a team off a home game. In this series, the visitor is 8-0 ATS, the Cougars are 9-1 ATS before a bye, and the Fighting Fritz’s are 7-3 ATS in a bounce-back game after blowing it the week before as the favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

Determining which team has been more disappointing this season, the Rockets or the Huskies, is challenging. Picked to win the MAC with a preseason win total of 8.5, Toledo is currently in 6th place in the MAC at 4-4 / 2-2, while NIU is trying to fend off Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, and UMass for the basement at 2-6 / 1-3. Despite a stellar defense that ranks No. 3 overall in the nation with 238 net yards allowed per game, a struggling offense has fallen short in three one-score losses, holding the Rockets back this season. Conversely, the Huskies' soft offense (No. 132 overall at 272 YPG) appears to play right into UT’s tough stop-unit. If you can’t gain yards or score points, your chances of winning in the FBS are slim to none... and Slim just left town. Lay it if you play it, as the Rockets will be going all out to nail a fifth consecutive bowl berth.

Rating: 2 Units

After starting the season 0-3, the 5-3 / 4-0 RedHawks hold the top spot in the MAC, just ahead of three one-loss teams, including the 5-3 / 3-1 Bobcats, who also had a slow start at 1-2. These two conference rivals are on a combined 9-1 streak. Going back to last season in this Battle of the Bricks rivalry, after a seven-game winning streak, Miami faced Ohio in the MAC championship game, aiming for its second straight title, but suffered a 38-3 defeat—the largest margin of victory in MAC Championship history. It was also Ohio's first appearance in the game since 2006. Considering the RedHawks' recent 5-0 SU and ATS run entering this game and the chance to avenge last year’s disastrous result against these teams, expect Miami to improve on Head Coach Chuck Martin’s impressive 6-0 SU and ATS career record in revenge games when his team is coming off back-to-back wins tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The 6-2 Warriors have evolved into one of the most dependable teams this season for all the right reasons. They now own the right to a bowl bid, and this “double” 17-returning starter squad will be out to avenge a 35-0 waxing at the hands of the Spartans in their last meeting in 2023. The 2-5 Spartans appear ready to snap a three year bowl streak, unless they win this game and two of their final four games. We don’t see that happening, though, not with Sparty conceding over 100 yards per game in overall defense. 

Rating: 2 Units

Wake Forest, the first team to hand SMU an ACC loss this season, edging the Mustangs 13-12 last weekend. Wake is riding a four-game ATS and ITS (In The Stats) streak, but they are not impressing the oddsmakers. The Demon Deacons are 5-2/2-2, Florida State is 3-4/0-4, but the midweek odds showed FSU around an 8.5-point favorite. The Noles are 2-6 in this series ATS and keep making key mistakes at key times. Consider that after finishing 2023 unbeaten in the regular season, 9-0 in the ACC, the Seminoles have lost nine straight in conference play.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is 1-0 under their interim boss, the legend himself, Robb Akey, one of the true personalities in the game. OSU West is a rough on the eyes 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS as a home dog, while Wazzu’s best W of the season may be their September 6 triumph over Mountain West co-leader San Diego State. The Cougars are at least in the running for a bowl and must see this as a simple step towards the postseason. Plus, it’s a revenge game where Arizona was the favorite by double-digits and lost at home last year. That turned out to be Trent Bray’s final win in Corvallis, which explains why he’s watching this one from home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs bring a 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) log into this game while winning the stats by an average of +50 net yards per game. Meanwhile, the Hogs are 0-3 outright under interim head coach Bobby Petrino as his showcase debut fizzles. Finally consider that the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS this season and have gone 5-1 SUATS in the last six series get-togethers with the Hogs.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas looked awful for three quarters before a wild rally led to a happy trip from Stark Vegas to Austin; even the usually reliable Texas D struggled against the Bulldogs. Steve Sarkisian is 17-4 ATS after his team allowed 35 points in the previous game, but 9th-ranked Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or less. Our issue with the Commodores is they have been outgained in three of the last six games, which isn’t bad news if the game were in Nashville, but downright dangerous when they stride into Austin against a Texas squad 17-1 outright in its last 18 games. Consider that Playing On the AP Preseason Top Ranked team any time they face a foe with a better record if the foe won 7 or fewer games last season is 13-1 ATS.

CFA Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The 7-0 / 5-0 Middies are one of only six undefeated FBS teams still alive this season, yet they failed to crack the AP Top 25. They own a one-game lead over second place 6-1 / 3-0 Tulane, with 7-1 / 3-1 North Texas breathing down their necks. Looking ahead, the Swabbies will take on Notre Dame, USF, and Memphis to close out the season, foes that are 17-5 collectively heading into this week. Despite scoring 32-plus points on SIX occasions this season, Navy will dress up as a dog for the first time in 2025. With that, consider undefeated Military teams are 28-10 ATS away against foes that allow 24-plus points per game, including 11-0 ATS when coming off a conference clash.

Rating: 2 Units

New 'Cuse HC Brown hoping for a miracle, as his depleted team is led by a QB (Collins) whose accuracy more pathetic by the week.  Thus, offsetting a "D" which has ceded 30+ pts 18 times since last year, is foolhardy indeed.  Both are on 4-gm slides, although 'Heels have taken L2 losses to final seconds.  Orange haven't covered at home since Sept 6th. The Orange has lost four straight, all by at least 13 points, averaging 12.5 points, while backup QB Rickie Collins has eight picks and six touchdowns.

Rating: 2 Units

Two losses in his team’s last three games – both to SEC foes – put LSU in a must win spot tonight against a bunch of Aggies that won last year’s get-together, 38-23. So, the question becomes: can Kelly respond with a revenge chip on his shoulder? The Well-Oiled Machine argues on his behalf, noting that the series host is on a 4-0 ATS run, while LSU is armed with a staggering 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS record playing at Death Valley before a Week of Rest. The 7-0 Aggies are hitting their stride under second-year head coach Mike Elko, but they get no love from our database, not with Elko going 4-8 ATS versus a foe with revenge, including 0-5 ATS away in conference games, and his frog-giggers just 1-4 ATS in their last five tries versus an opponent fueled by single revenge. This meeting marks the 10th ‘ranked matchup’ between the Aggies and Tigers, and LSU is 8-1 in those previous contests, with A&M’s victory coming last season.

Rating: 3 Units

Michigan State's Smith’s problem is having Spartans fans count the days until he gets fired, but perhaps, we can cool the angry mob with the fact that Smith is 12-4 ATS with a win percentage of .400 or better as a dog versus teams coming off a win, including 6-1 ATS when seeking revenge. Additionally, playing on any college conference home underdog of 21 points or fewer, with triple revenge, coming off three losses, if they scored 13 or fewer points and allowed 34 or more points in their last game, and if they surrendered 30 or more points in each of their last two games is 19-2 ATS. 

Rating: 2 Units

Baylor is 5-1 ATS on the road versus .750 or better foes and 4-1-1 in the back half of consecutive road games. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS as a favorite versus sub .600 conference opponents. 

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Tigers are winning the stats in their game by an average +245 net YPG; the Commodores are +143 net YPG. Missouri also checks in with an impressive 7-1 ATS record as dogs of fewer than six points, while Vanderbilt has gone 1-9 ATS after facing LSU, including 0-7 ATS at home. The timing is right for an ‘upset’ of the Commies, and we close it out by seeing that Mizzou is 10-0 ATS against opponents that are coming off a SUATS win.  

Rating: 2 Units

UNC is a healthy 10-1 ATS at home versus .700 or better conference foes, but that was then, and this is now. UNC is 1-7 in its recent 7th games, including 0-4 at home and 0-3 ATS as a conference home dog in the last two years and a matching 0-3 ATS when a double-digit dog in this series. Virginia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight vs. Carolina, 4-0 ATS in the first of consecutive roadies, and 5-1 ATS in the last six with single revenge. The Hoos are winning the stats battle by an average of +110/gm, and at 3-0, let us not lose sight of their shot at the ACC title game, someplace the Tar Heels won’t be getting their feet wet for quite some time. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Rebels’ defense disappeared for most of the contest vs Georgia, giving up points on the first eight Georgia drives and collapsing during a disastrous 0-17 4Q when they were out-yarded by 143-13.  Ole Miss is also 0-8-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. OU’s defense has held all seven opponents to season-low yardage in 2025, the only team in the nation that can claim that. Consider that 6-1 teams coming off their first loss of the season facing a foe that has won 8 of more of its last 22 games are to 3-22 ATS if they scored 35 or fewer points when entering these contests.  Additionally, Coach Venable is 5-2 SUATS in the seven times he’s been in this role, including when his team is seeking revenge, including 4-0 SUATS when not favored by more than 4 points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have identical records so far this season, but the Aggies are a perfect 3-0 at home, and are better both offensively and defensively. The Bears rank outside the top-100 of the country both offensively and defensively, and have been losing by an average of 8 points this season, so it doesn’t make sense to be road favorites in this spot. Consider that few  FBS teams perform better at home in weekday games than NMSU, which sports a 9-0 ATS mark in this role as an FBS team. We’re not about to fade that, especially with a winless opponent and 0-2 ATS against CUSA foes since diving into deep waters this season. The numbers don’t add up. The value here lies with the home dog, so take New Mexico State.

Rating; 3 Units

UH is normally risky on the mainland, but they picked up a win at Air Force last month and are coming off a bye after racking up Utah State on the island. Hawaii is 6-1 In the Stats with an average of +60 per game while Los Carneros are 2-4 and minus 61. Hawaii is only the underdog because they’re on the road, but this is another game where you can tattoo WTF – Wrong Team Favored.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Our advice is to forget about ASU’s no-show against the Utes and concentrate on the fact that the Sun Devils have not lost a game at home the past two seasons. Also, it has been reported that Leavitt participated in practice this week. The defense has also held three of five FBS foes to season-low yards this year. Texas Tech, however, will be fighting some bad history this afternoon in the form of a 6-12 ATS record as a road favorite since 2014, including 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents. We realize this has all the makings of another Red Raiders rout, but with the series visitor currently on a 0-4 SUATS skid, don’t be shocked if the Devils stick a pitchfork in TTRRs perfect season... especially since ASU is 34-20-1 ATS as a home dog the last 30 years, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated foes coming off a double-digit ATS win.  

Rating: 3 Units

The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games but strangely weak as a host with a soft 6-14 ATS and 7-13 SU mark. First year HC Barry Odom has a lot of leeway at Purdue, and he needs it. His offense has managed four straight 300 yard passing games and, on the ground, they averaged 6.5 yards per carry against Illinois and Minnesota. It should be noted Northwestern is 0-2 when giving up more than 4.5 yards/carry. Two important numbers clash head on here: Purdue is 7-1 ATS as a road dog of three or more points when coming off a double digit defeat, but Northwestern is 15-2 ATS off an outright road dog win over a conference opponent. Remember you’re gambling, so to speak, with a team coming off an upset win as a 20 points or greater underdog so tread lightly in the tracks of a Wildcat.

Rating: 3 Units

Beamer started his week by firing his OL coach after the LSU loss, then tried to explain to the media the departing Lonnie Teasley wasn’t a victim of “make a change and Lonnie is our fall guy.”  OU is more “oh yes” by holding all six opponents to season-low yardage this year. Sounds great, but the Sooners are 2-15 ATS as a conference road favorite against teams with at least one win this season that are coming off a double-digit loss, including 0-9 ATS in the last nine affairs. 

Rating: 3 Units

Tigers have been 10-0 SU in the last 10 and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six, in fact the Dores haven’t tasted a win over LSU since 1990 when Bengal Boss Brian Kelly was defensive coordinator at Grand Valley State. Kelly’s 45-28-2 ATS when the dog or pick ‘em has been attached and 6-0-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS win. Vanderbilt is 0-4 before Missouri, 0-3 in Game 7 and 2-7 after a bye week that followed a SU defeat. LSU is a Jack Morris like 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in recent game 7s. …Wrong Team Favored. in this one.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Georgia Tech continues its fully charmed life, 6-0 and ranked #12 behind dual-threat QB Haynes King. GT is averaging 238 rush yards per game, 12th best in the country, while King is hitting on 71 percent of his tosses and leading the team in rushing at 440 yards with nine touchdowns. GT has been sloppier with the ball this season than Duke, posting a -3 TO margin. Tech, Duke, and Virginia are the only 3-0 ACC teams now, and GT has a clear path to the College Football Playoff, which gives us a clear walkway to the fact that Georgia Tech is 4-0 SUATS as a dog of six or fewer points under Coach Brent Key.

Friday Night Lights

Rating: 3 Units

UL is more than respectable in this series, going 7-3 ATS and 3-0 ATS as a visitor. Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in a revenge matchup, and coming off the bye, they’re 5-0 SUATS when not a double-digit favorite. UL Coach Jeff Brohm is 23-8 ATS as a dog of more than four points, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss. Miami is a desultory 1-4 in recent Game 6s, and HC Mario Cristobal is 0-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. The Canes are also 0-3 ATS in Game Six when unbeaten while facing a team coming off a SUATS loss. Finally, UL is 16-4 ATS as a double-digit road dog when .500 or better, including 7-0 in ACC games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Let’s face it, Tulsa’s 2025 season will be defined by beating Oklahoma State, ending Mike Gundy’s career in Stillwater. Two games have passed, and the Golden Hurricane has been outscored 76-21 thanks to an offense ranked 119th. East Carolina is a balanced squad with America’s 35th best offense and 42nd best D, giving them a plus 107 yards per game edge on opponents. They’re stingy, giving up points too, ranked 15th at 15.5 per game. Toss in ECU’s 13-1 ATS mark as home chalk of more than 11 and the choice is easy.

SEC Game of the Week

RATING: 5 Units

UGA is just 1-6 ATS versus rested foes, and 1-5 ATS as road chalk of seven or fewer points. Auburn checks in with a 4-0 ATS mark after scoring ten or fewer points, plus the Tigers have been waiting to get even for last year’s humbling 31-13 loss to the Dawgs. Finally, SEC home dogs are 5-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 ATS versus .750 or greater foes.

Rating: 3 Units

The biggest factor tonight could be the head coaches: Texas A&M’s Mike Elko is humming along on autopilot right now, while Florida’s Billy Napier is literally in a desperate week-to-week fight for his coaching life with the Gators. Sure, last week’s upset win over Texas kept the wolves at bay for another week, but Florida is still only 2-3 / 1-1 for the season, and a .500 or less finish won’t be enough to stave off the moving van. At least Napier can lean on some recent series success against A&M, cashing an ATS ticket in four of the last five hookups. The cherry on top for Florida is its 7-0-1 ATS conference dog log when coming off an outright win as a dog. Finally, SEC dogs coming off a SUATS win are 4-0 ATS this season.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We’ll admit giving consideration to Kansas State’s season being kaput after last week’s gut-busting 1-point loss at Baylor, until we're reminded us that all four of K-State’s losses were of the one-score variety – the most in the nation. TCU comes in with a dreadful series point spread record of 1-6 ATS, including 0-3 ATS away in the last three meet-and-greets. KSU head coach Chris Klieman stands 29-13 SU and 24-12 ATS at home, including 15-6 SU and 16-4 ATS if they did not beat the spread by 4 or more points in their previous game. And then, finally there is the fact that head coach Sonny Dykes is 4-17 SU and 6-13-2 ATS against foes coming off consecutive ATS wins that allow fewer than 27 PPG, including 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS from Game Six out.