Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-20-25 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +8.5 | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Consider that the underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS run in CFP title games, teams with a better win percentage are 3-0 ATS all-time in CFP championship games if they scored more than 24 points in the semifinal round match. In addition, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is 33-8 SU and 29-11 ATS in his career with the Irish, by an average margin of loss of 7 points per game ... with only three by double-digits. He is also 10-0 ATS against foes coming off an ATS win of nine or more points and 31-1 outright in games where the Irish have scored 24 or more points. |
|||||||
01-10-25 | Ohio State v. Texas +6 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only five teams have won a College Football Playoff game and lost to the spread. Those teams are 2-0 SUATS the following playoff game by an average winning margin of 43 points per game (Alabama 52, Ohio State 24; Georgia 65, TCU 7). Digging deeper, this marks only the second time in their previous 42 games – and the first time this season – that the Longhorns will be taking points over the last three years, both behind QB Quinn Ewers (who was initially recruited by Ryan Day before he transferred out) and both against Alabama when they won 31-24 (+7), and lost 19-20 (+21). Buckeyes’ boss Ryan Day brings a shaky 3-7 ATS career mark into this contest against foes coming off an outright win but ATS loss, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when not favored by double-digits. When push comes to shove, Texas has a national championship-caliber defense – some have said it’s one of the program’s best units ever. The Longhorns could win two more games if the team plays to its full potential. |
|||||||
01-09-25 | Notre Dame -118 v. Penn State | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. The only team to take down the Irish this season is the Mid-American Conference and Group of 5-member Northern Illinois, and the Huskies performed that feat in a thoroughly convincing 26-14 at Notre Dame Stadium when they outgained the Irish, 388-286, while dominating the Time of Possession, 34:38 to 25:22. The bottom line is it’s difficult looking past Franklin’s continual collapses in big games, as his 1-14 outright record against Top five ranked teams attests. |
|||||||
01-04-25 | Buffalo v. Liberty +3 | 26-7 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames hold the edge in 14 of 16 overall categories. Lopsided edges like these are the sort of stuff in which underdogs rise up and bite counterfeit favorites. Toss in the fact that Buffalo struggled mightily against fellow bowl teams this season, going 1-6 ITS while being out-gained by an average of -162 net yards per game. Conversely, Liberty took on four fellow bowl teams this season and won the stats with an average of +40 net yards per game. By our calculations, the wrong team is favored in this contest. While we don’t question the lines maker, we question his math. If you were to take the four wins of the eight wins the Bills captured against losing teams this season, you’d be left with a 4-4 squad. Look for the Flames to improve to 4-1 ATS against .666 or better foes here. |
|||||||
01-03-25 | North Texas v. Texas State -13.5 | 28-30 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bobcats have won three of their last four games while the Mean Green have lost five of their last six games. North Texas won’t be as successful offensively because they rely heavily on their passing game, which is fifth in the country. Unfortunately for them, the Bobcats have one of the best pass defenses in the country and they also don’t give up a lot of yards on the ground, so expect them to keep North Texas’ offense in check. Additionally, Texas State boss G.J. Kinne is 11-4 SU and 8-5 ATS versus sub .600 teams. The Bobcats played bowl teams way better than North Texas did, going 5-1 ITS (In The Stats), and given the giant edge at the game’s most important position, seem poised to break scoreboard lights. |
|||||||
01-02-25 | Duke v. Ole Miss -17 | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Duke will get the full Ole Miss experience with Jackson Dart sticking around to QB the Rebels, and even Duke Coach Manny Diaz’s 11-3 ATS record as an underdog of 17 or fewer points may not help. Duke is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games, but Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in its last 17, while the SEC is 7-2 SUATS in their last nine versus the ACC. Mississippi has the nation’s #2 red zone offense and third-ranked red zone defense. |
|||||||
01-02-25 | Notre Dame v. Georgia +110 | 23-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Irish made Indiana look like a rec league softball team against the ’27 Yankees. ND is 8-1 SU versus 2024 bowl teams and carries a 9-15-1 SU/10-15 ATS record in post-season games since 1995. Notre Dame has succeeded against the almighty SEC, going 5-0 ATS in their last five as a dog versus God’s conference (just ask them). We get it if you can’t imagine a college football playoff without Georgia. This is their fourth appearance, with two titles, and many believe Georgia was more than qualified to make it last year, too. UGA is 5-1 SUATS in their playoff history. Frankly, Georgia needed the bye more than any team after about 100 overtimes against Texas in the conference title game. Kirby Smart is clearly not on the golf course while the Bulldogs rest; he’s 18-3 SU and 12-9 ATS with rest, including 5-0 SUATS when a team comes off back-to-back SUATS wins. But Smart probably lost some shuteye when he learned venerable QB Carson Beck will miss this game with an elbow injury aggravated against the Longhorns, leaving Gunner Stockton to make the biggest start of his young career. The Fighting Irish have the edge in QB, and Georgia has the edge in playoff experience under a two-time national title coach. It comes down to whether Gunner Stockton lives up to the moment. |
|||||||
01-01-25 | Ohio State -130 v. Oregon | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year Bowl Game of the Year The Buckeyes are 0-2 under Day vs. Oregon after winning the first nine matchups against the Ducks; however, Ryan is 3-0 ATS in games against foes with a better win percentage. It’s usually a good day for OSU to play unbeaten teams, going 13-7 SU, including 3-0 ATS in games when Ohio State is not unbeaten. The Buckeyes overcame a hostile crowd of Tennessee supporters and some of their fans to rout the SEC opponent to set up, oddly enough, a traditional Rose Bowl if Oregon was still in the Pac-12. Nike founder Phil Knight, the 12th man of the Ducks program, has spent his money wisely on everything from A to Z to get the Ducks to this moment, including a chance to be the first 16-0 team in college football history. Gabriel will get most of the attention, but Oregon RB Jordan James rushed for 1,253 yards and 15 TDs. Tez Johnson is Oregon’s #1 WR, hauling in 10 of Gabriel’s 28 TD tosses. Ohio State QB Will Howard rebounded nicely from the Michigan disaster with a world-class performance versus the Volunteers, and he’s publicly shared his willingness to get another shot at the Ducks, who beat the Bucks by one earlier this year. The game ended with Howard trying to lead a game-winning drive that fell short. You want to avoid falling short on something else: your money. Be warned that bowl teams coming off rest, like the Ducks, are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against unrested bowl teams. Finally, teams seeking revenge in bowl games featuring same conference rivals are 6-0 ATS since 1990. |
|||||||
01-01-25 | Texas v. Arizona State +12.5 | 39-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Longhorns left the Big 12 this year but will run into a championship squad picked last by the brilliant pre-season prognosticators. UT is 8-16 ATS when favored versus .840 or greater B12 teams. Sark is 8-15-1 ATS as the favorite off a SUATS win when facing .500 or better opponents. Make ASU the bowl dog at your own risk; the Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS as the underdog of two or greater versus a .600 or better win percentage. Ranked opponents? No problem, the Pitchforks are 4-0 SUATS vs. ranked opponents in 2024, and .800 or greater double-digit bowl dogs off a SU underdog win are 5-1-1 ATS. ASU is the guy you want rolling the dice at the craps table, finishing 6-0 SUATS, and their defense even held four teams to season-low or 2nd low yardage this year ... winning four games outright as underdogs this season. UT Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been forced to look over his shoulder after returning from injury to see if Arch Manning is warming up, and Longhorn watchers will tell you Manning is more gifted. |
|||||||
12-31-24 | Penn State v. Boise State +11 | 31-14 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defense is a major strength for the Nittany Lions, who held six teams to season-low yardage and held foes to 213 points in the regular season. Boise gets a rap for being in the Mountain West, but in the only game they were a double-digit dog, they beat the rap in losing 37-34 to Oregon when the Ducks were 17.5-point favorites. Versus fellow bowl teams, the Broncos are 5-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) this season and are 7-2 ATS in the last nine when a dog of 10 or greater, and that includes a solid 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Mountain West teams generally get the Rodney Dangerfield treatment in bowl games but are 10-2 ATS when an 8-point or larger underdog. This game is loaded with subplots: Jeanty is coming off the 2,000-yard season against a sturdy PSU defense, Boise is trying to justify its place in the CFP (especially challenging after the eggs laid by SMU and Indiana), while Penn State’s Franklin needs a lightsaber to fend off his critics in not always Happy Valley. Franklin won’t get his hand chopped off if PSU loses, but he may need to form a support group with Ryan Day if the Lions fall short. We think this will be close. |
|||||||
12-31-24 | Baylor v. LSU +4 | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units (pick should be Baylor!!!) There is no disputing Brian Kelly’s success in the transfer portal, and if he could field a team of his new guys for this bowl game, LSU would be rough to handle. But the BK Broiler is 6-9 ATS in bowl games including 1-5 ATS as the favorite of fewer than 15 points. Kelly may need the new blood to keep his office in Baton Rouge, as LSU hasn’t made the playoffs since his arrival. The pressure’s not quite so high in Waco, but HC Dave Aranda struggled the past two seasons with six- and three-win seasons before posting eight Ws (the same as LSU). Baylor is 4-2 SUATS in its last six bowl games, including 4-1 as the underdog. BU is also 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS off a home game against a team coming off a home game. Baylor also closed hotter than a pepper sprout (thanks, Johnny Cash), going on a 6-0 In the Stats and ATS tear at the checkered flag. Aranda came to Baylor from LSU, where he was the defensive coordinator. He and his staff will have to prepare for LSU’s No.1 QB, Garrett Nussmeier, who decided to stick around for the trip to Texas. He hasn’t thrown a pick since the Bama game on November 9th and has 26 TD passes. His counterpart, BU QB Sawyer Robertson, has been named a dark horse Heisman candidate for 2025 by 24/7 Sports. Robertson also has 26 TD tosses but just seven picks. LSU seems intent on flexing about its 2025 roster. However, Baylor is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under Dave Aranda after scoring more than 36 points in its last game (beat Kansas 45-17) and that includes 5-0 ATS this season. |
|||||||
12-30-24 | Iowa +2.5 v. Missouri | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units There is nothing we like than a quality underdog, and the Iowa Hawkeyes definitely fills the bill – one that has won 36 games over the past four years. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and are 6-1 ATS as a dog when both teams are coming off a win. Kirk Ferentz is 23-11-1 ATS when they have a lower win percentage and allow 18 or fewer points per game. They rank #131 in passing offense, so normally, you would expect the Hawkeyes to rely on star RB Kaleb Johnson to carry the rock. However, he has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play today, so freshman Kamari Moulton could be the best option for Ferentz. Mizzou will also miss their best player as WR Luther Burden III has opted out. Tigers’ head coach Eli Drinkwitz is only 2-7 ATS coming off consecutive wins when facing winning foes, and has been a dog in all three bowl games with the Tigers, including a 14-3 win over Ohio State in last year’s bowl. They are a small favorite this year, and we are looking for another low-scoring game that the quality dog will win. Take the points. |
|||||||
12-28-24 | Miami-OH v. Colorado State +2.5 | 43-17 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MAC bowlers coming off a SU loss as a favorite are 5-17 SU and 8-13-1 ATS, and that will put out the stop sign for us, despite a sparkling 7-1 ATS mark in bowl games since 2003, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Unfortunately, the bad news continues for the RedHawks is that MAC conference championship game losers are 6-14 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in bowl games. Add to that the fact that QB Brent Gabbert will be without his two 800-yard receivers, with Javon Tracy heading to Minnesota and Reggie Virgil moving on to Texas Tech. On the flip side, Colorado State is riding a recent 7-1-1 ATS win skein and is 7-2 ATS versus winning foes, including 2-0 this season. |
|||||||
12-28-24 | Iowa State +4 v. Miami-FL | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Head coach Matt Campbell is 17-8 ATS as a dog coming off a loss, while his Clones are 3-0 ATS in bowl games with a .666-or-higher win percentage. They are also 5-2 ATS as a bowl dog when they average under 23 PPG. They have the only pair of receivers in the nation who rolled up 1,000 yards through the air in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, while QB Rocco Becht has thrown a TD pass in 17 straight games. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are playing in this game with frowns on their faces after getting left out of the CFP by losing 2 of their last three games. As will most of Mario Cristobal’s troops, QB Cam Ward will play, and Miami’s explosive attack is 8-0 ITS (In The Stats) versus other bowl teams this season. However, ACC bowl teams are 2-10 ATS against opponents coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Cristobal is also 2-12 ATS versus a foe coming off SU loss as a favorite (0-6 ATS against a non-conference foe). Both teams were in the Top 10 this season at one point, but a mid-season swoon for the Cyclones and the late collapse by the Canes have them meeting in Orlando today. Keep in mind that Big 12 conference champion game losers are 3-0 SUATS in their last three bowl games, while Miami is just 2-12 SUATS in their last fourteen bowl games since 2005, With their hearts probably not completely in it today, we see the Canes dropping to 2-13. |
|||||||
12-28-24 | UL-Lafayette +12.5 v. TCU | 3-34 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Louisiana is 19-8 ATS as a dog when they have a better win percentage, but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and a miserable 2-21 SU overall versus Big 12 opposition. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, have not been much better in bowl action, going 4-8 ATS in their last twelve bowl games (2-7 ATS as a favorite). They have gone 3-0 against Sun Belt opponents but just 0-3 ATS in those games. The Frogs are 3-0 SUATS in their last three games of the season this year, with wins over Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati behind QB Josh Hoover. The sophomore averaged 308 yards a game through the air – ranked 10th in the nation – and tossed 23 touchdowns. Consider that bowl teams on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are just 10-30 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss. |
|||||||
12-28-24 | Boston College v. Nebraska -3.5 | 15-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Emmett Johnson pulled his name out of the portal and apparently will play. Be aware that Big Ten teams are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS versus the ACC in bowl games, but Rhule is 1-7 ATS with rest when coming off a loss. For BC, Thomas Castellanos has transferred to Florida State, so former FIU QB Grayson James will likely start to cap Bill O’Brien’s first season. The Eagles went 2-1 after O’Brien benched Castellanos and James took over, with the offense coming to life for wins over North Carolina and Pitt to close out the regular season. However, BC is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games (0-5 ATS against opponents off a loss), while bowl teams who won a bowl game as a dog of more than 6 points are 11-20 ATS versus foes off a loss. In addition, the Eagles are riding a 5-game winning streak, which keeps the price on this game in our comfort range. |
|||||||
12-28-24 | Connecticut +3 v. North Carolina | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units North Carolina is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight bowl games. UNC is also 1-6 outright versus fellow bowl foes this season and 2-9 ATS from Game Seven out over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Huskies are 3-0 outright against fellow bowl foes this season. In addition, bowl dogs coming off a win who won 3 or fewer games last year are 33-12 ATS. Jim Mora is also 8-2 outright if he has a better record than his opponent. His team mopped up against weak sisters this campaign, going 6-1 SU versus sub -333 opponents this season to help them finish above .500 for the first time in 14 years. However, that was enough to land them this bowl berth in what, for all intents and purposes, amounts to a game in their backyard. |
|||||||
12-27-24 | Texas A&M v. USC +3.5 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 59 h 4 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Remember that SEC bowl favorites are 30-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents off a loss, but just 2-8 ATS in bowl games against foes off a SU loss. On the flip side, the 6-6 Trojans were also a major disappointment this season, and Lincoln Riley needs a win here to avoid his first losing season as a head coach. QB Miller Moss was benched mid-season, and Riley will get a good look at Jayden Maiava, who beat Nebraska and UCLA in November. Finally, the good news is that 6-6 bowl teams shine against foes coming off consecutive SUATS losses and are ready to rumble in the post-season. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6-6 bowl teams coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 24-10 ATS, including 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or fewer PPG. |
|||||||
12-27-24 | Oklahoma v. Navy +3 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sooners have faced military teams on three different occasions this century. They were favored by 17, 17.5, and 28 points in each contest. Again, they were real Boomer Sooner teams, unlike the dollops they became in the past three seasons under Brent Venables. On the other hand, Navy has elevated itself under second-year head coach Brian Newberry as he has them bowling again for the first time since 2019. They know Oklahoma hasn’t seen an option attack like this since the Sooners edged Army, 28-21, as -28.5-point chalk in 2018. The Middies are the current Commander-in-Chief’s crew, and our database reminds us that these CIC champs are 18-3 ATS in bowl games when they surrender fewer than 22.5 points per game. |
|||||||
12-26-24 | Arkansas State v. Bowling Green -8 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s reassuring to know that MAC teams are 15-10-1 ATS against Sun Belt foes in bowl games, but it’s even better to learn that BGSU is 5-0 ATS versus Sun Belt foes not coming off a double-digit loss. The Red Wolves have not fared well in outings against superior teams, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS against winning squads this season and 0-5 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers – with an average stat loss of -178 yards per game. We prefer Bowling Green’s 13-2 ATS run in its last fifteen games versus sub-.600 opposition. |
|||||||
12-26-24 | Rutgers v. Kansas State -6.5 | 41-44 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Outside of New Jersey, Rutgers football has been all but invisible since joining the Big Ten in 2014, currently standing 47-85 overall, while Kansas State is a household word when it comes to college football. Wildcats’ head coach, Chris Kleiman, has been a comfortable fit for the program. This season’s 8-4 effort boosted his record to 47-28 in six seasons, and K-State has gone bowling every year under Kleiman, except for the 2020 COVID campaign. A 1-3 slide to end this season is cause for concern, but Coach K is 15-3-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights did get off to a nice 4-0 start in 2024, but a 3-5 finish dropped them into this low-profile bowl game. While Big Ten dogs are 17-9 ATS vs. Big 12 opponents in bowl games, Rutgers is dragging a 2-10 ATS ball and chain when coming off a conference road game. As with any bowl you choose to play this season, always check the list of player and coach opt-outs prior to the game. In these situations, we seldom get behind the chalk, but K-State’s pedigree should rise to the top here. Lay the points |
|||||||
12-26-24 | Pittsburgh v. Toledo +7 | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Among those likely out will be wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, Pitt’s leading pass catcher, who has declared for the 2025 NFL Draft, and backup quarterback Nate Yarnell, who is in the transfer portal. Toledo took a similar hit and will be missing Dequan Finn, quarterback, who transferred to Baylor. All things considered, we’ll fade a Pitt team that stands 8-15 SUATS in bowl games, including 2-7 ATS as chalk. And let’s face it: the ACC has done nothing so far to improve its miserable 2-10 ATS curse versus an opponent coming off SU loss as a favorite. With the dog sitting 5-0 ATS in the last six Rockets bowl games, it’s déjà vu all over again. |
|||||||
12-24-24 | South Florida +3 v. San Jose State | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect the unexpected when the Bulls of South Florida lace 'em up, with this year a prime example, turning a 2-4 start, into a 6-6 record. They've posted 48, 49, 44, 59, & 63 points this season, while failing to top 16 points on 5 occasions. Ditto a "D",which, was blistered for 52, 50, 45 points in a 2-5 start, but improved to 27.2 ppg in their final 6 games (4-2), with RB Joiner a fabulous 9.4 yards per rush in USF's wins. The Spartans of San Jose State are down a notch from last year, as would be expected, with just 7 returning starters, while winding up the season with but 2 covers over their final 8 outings, compared to their 6-1 ATS run entering last year's Hawaii (24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina, as a 7½ point favorites . SJS has lost its L3 bowls by 28, 17½, & 17½ points. |
|||||||
12-21-24 | Tennessee +7.5 v. Ohio State | 17-42 | Loss | -109 | 217 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU is 2-4 SUATS in the post-season since 2019, and after fattening up on too many portions of Purdue burgers and French-fried Spartans, dealing with the tougher SEC has yielded a 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS record versus the Self Love Conference since 1990. The Buckeyes also nurse one hella hangover after losing to Michigan, going 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS after an outright beating from the Wolverines. Tennessee has also had plenty of years leading their fans on, only to crush them with some bitter defeat and an October loss to Arkansas, which looked like the dagger. The Vols went 6-1 down the stretch with a rugged defense that gave up only 167 points all season. Tennessee will only be as good as RB Dylan Sampson, who crossed the 100-yard mark in 10 games, scoring 22 times. The Vols bring in some numbers that will no doubt raise hackles in the Desert … including 8-1 SUATS vs. .750 or greater against non-conference teams since 2016, 6-1 SU, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven bowl games and vs the Big 10, 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. |
|||||||
12-21-24 | Clemson +11 v. Texas | 24-38 | Loss | -109 | 213 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You can argue there’s no more experienced playoffs head coach than Dabo Swinney, and his record as an underdog is more five-star than any recruits he’s brought in lately, 12-2 ATS as a dog of five or more, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. The Dabster is also 11-5 SUATS in the last 16 bowl games, 8-2 ATS when the underdog, and 6-1 ATS as the underdog when coming off a win. Want more? Dabo is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS versus a team off a SU favorite loss. |
|||||||
12-21-24 | SMU v. Penn State -8.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 209 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lions may be strong enough in this one, thanks to an excellent defense that held opponents to season-low yardage five times. Franklin is 8-1 SU and 5-3 ATS vs the ACC and 13-28 SU vs Top 25 opponents, but most of those are from the Big 10. The B1G Boys are rough on the ACC in the bowl season, owning an impressive 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS mark, and this regular season, the conference dominated the Atlantic Coast rivals going 11-1 In the Stats and 7-1 In the Stats vs. the ACC bowl reps. SMU averaged 38.5 PPG, 6th best in the nation, but even after getting lit up by Oregon, Penn State’s defense is 8th in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and 6th in yards allowed/game at 282.1. The good news for Franklin is SMU doesn’t fall in his 1-15 vs. Top 5 programs record, a record that had Happy Valley fans yelling at him during the Ohio State loss. |
|||||||
12-20-24 | Indiana +7.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -109 | 194 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Playoff Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units The Fighting Irish have a surprising 0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995, an even weirder 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 teams. The IU numbers are sweeter than a Hoosier Sugar Cream Pie, with Cignetti 30-6 all time vs. FBS and 6-1 SUATS vs teams .750 or greater and 5-1 ATS coming off a win over 48 plus points. IU has lived off the brilliant play of Manning Award fi nalist Kurtis Rourke (27 TD 4 INT and his top target Elijah Sarret, who rode along to Bloomington with Cignetti from James Madison. The Irish turn to veteran QB Riley Leonard (16 passing TDs and 14 rushing) plus the strong legs of Jeremiyah Love, who has scored in each game this season. The victory formula is simple: the winner of the run game vs. run defense battle should prevail. Consider that Bowl dogs who score 56 or more in their final regular season game are 5-1 SUATS since 1990, including 5-0 SUATS if they gave up 27 points or fewer on the season. |
|||||||
12-20-24 | Tulane +14.5 v. Florida | 8-33 | Loss | -110 | 189 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gators are also 0-3 ATS in the last three bowl games, and they were a 7-point or greater favorite in and against bowling teams this year; the Boys from Old Florida were 2-5 SU and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats). The almighty SEC is also 1-3 vs the AAC in bowl games (we will be checking under the hoods of our car before starting it after printing that). In the meantime, Tulane HC Jon Sumrall spurned North Carolina’s advances and signed a contract extension to stay in New Orleans, but the same cannot be said for highly-touted QB Darian Mensah, who fl ed to Duke this week. Look for Tulane to lean heavily on RB Makhi Hughes, who ran for 1,372 yards with 15 scores. Florida QB D.J. Lagway was the fan favorite in Gainesville from the first game on, and after his counterpart Graham Mertz tore his knee, Lagway began to show the form that has everyone excited for next year as he appears to be avoiding the magnetic transfer portal. He finished 5-1 as a starter after a 31-11 win over Tallahassee Community College. But Lagway will be running into a quality Green Wave defense that held four teams to season-low yardage in a season of bookends. Tulane started 1-2 and finished 0-2, but the middle was sweeter than the center of a Reese’s Cup, 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. Assuming there are no more dramatic transfers out of Tulane, consider that playing against any college bowl double-digit favorite coming off a SU victory and 3 ATS wins if they have won outright in 17 or fewer of their last 22 games.is 11-0 ATS. |
|||||||
12-20-24 | Ohio -3 v. Jacksonville State | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 186 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Unsurprisingly, the 61-year-old Rich Rod has done a superb job at the school, going 26-10 and 18-3 in league play. The Gamecocks lead the country in rushing plays of 10-plus yards with 102 and are eighth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage (75.6). On the negative side, the Gamecocks have allowed more than 400 yards in four of their last six games. We’ll toss in the fact that CUSA bowl dogs off a win are 2-7 ATS versus MAC opponents, and Rodriguez is 2-9-1 ATS in bowl games. |
|||||||
12-18-24 | Western Kentucky +9.5 v. James Madison | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hilltoppers are 14-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 13 points versus Fun-in-the-Sun Belters. They are also 38-11-2 ATS as a dog of 9 or fewer points, including 17-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Add to these numbers a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record as a bowler with a .600-or-greater win percentage and an 11-2 ATS mark if coming off a loss and going against a foe also coming off a loss. Finally, there is a pesky 3-1-1 ATS record as a bowler if they are allowing fewer than 25.5 PPG. The bottom line is that there is too much stick-to-itiveness to overlook here. On the James Madison side, the Dukes sat at 8-2 late in the season and were closing in on a visit to the Sun Belt Championship game, but finished with losses to Appalachian State and Marshall (35-33 in double-overtime) to fall short of that goal. Consider that bowl favorites of six or more points in this role are 1-7 ATS. Also, Sun Belt bowl favorites are 15-25 ATS in bowl games since 2019, including 2-8 ATS when coming off a loss. The numbers say go with the Toppers. |
|||||||
12-17-24 | Memphis -4 v. West Virginia | 42-37 | Win | 100 | 123 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mountaineers will be playing for an interim head coach in Chad Scott, as Neal Brown was fired on Sunday, one day after the Hillbillies were stomped, 52-15, to finish the season at 6-6. Brown lost four of his last seven games by double-digits, with three defeats coming in Morgantown. He went 37-35 in six seasons and took his Mountaineers to 4 bowl games, but was unable to win more than six games in a season just once. WVU is also 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine bowl games, while Big 12 bowlers are just 1-3 SUATS versus AAC opponents. Conversely, Memphis earned a No. 25 ranking in the AP Poll and College Football Playoff standings this week after pulling off a 34-24 road upset over Tulane on Thanksgiving, collecting back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. This is the Tigers’ second straight year squaring off against Big 12 competition in the postseason. Last December, Memphis upended Iowa State 36-26 on its home fi eld at the Liberty Bowl and are 3-0 SUATS in bowls under Silverfield. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, were 0-6 SUATS versus fellow bowl teams this season and lost the stats battle in six of their last seven games to conclude the season. |
|||||||
12-14-24 | Navy +7 v. Army | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cadets are just 1-6-1 ATS as favorites of two or more points in this series when the Mids are carrying the revenge chip. The Swabbies have also been 14-6-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a military loss, including 9-2-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 20 points. While it’s true that both teams throw the ball much more than they did a few years ago, don’t read too much into it. In the last ten meetings, neither team has scored more than 21 points, so you may want to have a few NoDoz tablets on hand if you’re looking to make it all the way to the end without missing some late heroics. Yes, Army has won six of the last eight contests on the scoreboard, but laying a touchdown to a potent Navy squad averaging 32.8 PPG is not how we want to approach such a fierce rivalry. Instead, we’ll look for Navy to load up the missile launchers and fire away. Finally, Military teams coming off an outright win as a dog are 7-0 ATS against fellow military teams since 2001. |
|||||||
12-07-24 | Penn State +3.5 v. Oregon | 37-45 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Undefeated favorites of six or fewer points on neutral fields are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in conference title games since 2013 when facing foes with at least one loss on the season. Penn St HC Franklin is 42-15 SU and 34-21-2 ATS in conference games when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS from Game Eleven out – including 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS from Game Twelve out. Meanwhile, the Ducks will have to overcome the fate of past single-digit favorites in Big Ten championships, who have gone 3-4 outright and 1-6 ATS. |
|||||||
12-07-24 | Georgia +3 v. Texas | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas backers won’t be cashing tickets, calling out the fact that UT head coach Steve Sarkisian is 7-11-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win in his career when favored against winning foes, including 0-5-1 ATS versus foes that scored more than 40 points in their previous game. Then there’s Georgia head coach Kirby Smart’s super-sharp 5-0 ATS record as a dog of fewer than five points. Additionally, the Georgia Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under head coach Kirby Smart when not favored by double-digits if they allowed more than 30 points in their previous game. Finally, teams seeking same season revenge in conference title games are just 20-31 SUATS when facing foes coming off an ATS loss, including 0-4 SUATS against foes that won twelve or more games the previous season. |
|||||||
12-07-24 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
Conference Championship Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units/b> Defending MAC champs are 1-6 ATS and 1-7 SU when trying to repeat. Since 2006, Miami is 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 ATS when Ohio brings a .666-win percentage into the game. Additionally, MAC title dogs are 16-6-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS vs. teams coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Finally, MAC dogs are 16-6-3 in conference championship games, including 8-1-1 ATS if they surrendered 21 or fewer points in their last game. |
|||||||
12-06-24 | Tulane v. Army +4.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Black Knights are 10-1 ‘In The Stats’ this season, winning the yardage by an average of +106 net yards per game. And when it comes to AAC title games, home teams are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, including 3-0 SUATS when not coming off a double-digit win. Jeff Monken, wraps up his 11th year in West Point after clinching a perfect 8-0 AAC record in the regular season. Finally, teams in conference championship games, coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite of more than -11 points, are 1-7-1 ATS since 2005, including 0-5 ATS with a win percentage of .750 or less. |
|||||||
12-06-24 | Western Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -4 | 12-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the history of College Conference Championship Games began in 1992, there have been a total of four games that were right-back revenge from a season-ending loss, and the avenging teams have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. Those are good numbers, but not as good as the Gamecocks’ 4-0 SUATS record at home when coming off a loss in their two seasons in the FBS, outscoring foes 141-41 in those same games. Meanwhile, the Toppers are just 4-7 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog, including 0-5 ATS if the upset win came against a conference foe. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Marshall v. James Madison -3.5 | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Marshall is only 3-7 ITS (In The Stats) this campaign, while JMU is 9-2 ITS. Hmm, something looks off here. Meanwhile, Jimmy is plenty mad just about now, sporting the better numbers while looking up at Marshall in the Sun Belt standings. While they can’t make it to the title game, they can get a large measure of revenge in their Last Home Game from a 26-2 loss they suffered here as double-digit chalk when the Herd last visited in 2022. The Mad Men are 2-0 SUATS in regular season finales since joining the FBS, winning by an average margin of 41 points per game. FYI: Last season, they dropped their LHG, 26-23, as a double-digit favorite to Appalachian State. They won’t make the same mistake this year since Marshall is 2-10 SUATS in the second of consecutive away games, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS versus sub .750 foes |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Texas v. Texas A&M +5.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s not good news for the Longhorns. Not only is Bevo a ghastly 2-11 ATS as a favorite of 21 or fewer points versus SEC opponents, but Steve Sarkisian’s bunch is just 1-4 ATS in their most recent five tries as conference road chalk. Not so for the Aggies, who are 7-2-1 ATS their last ten versus an .800 or better conference opponent and have cashed tickets in five of the last series showdowns. Hey, if any coach in America can rally his team after a crushing defeat, it’s A&M’s Mike Elko, and his squad hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season. Elko also chips in with a 6-2 ATS mark as a conference dog, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS away off a SU conference home win, including 0-6 ATS in the last six games. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Washington v. Oregon -18 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The last foe to tag the Ducks with a defeat was – you guessed it – the same Washington Huskies that are coming to Eugene. The Bad Dogs took the Ducks down two times last season, including a 34-31 win as a 10-point dog in the Pac-12 championship game. That loss kept Oregon from being one of the final four playoff teams last year, and U-Dub will likely pay the price here. Don’t be concerned about OU scoring a season-low 16 points in their win over Wisconsin, as Camp Randall Stadium is a snake den for many visiting teams. Consider Oregon’s 6-1 ATS record after failing to score 20 points in the previous game and its 8-3 ATS mark off a SU win of 3 or fewer points when facing a sub .700 foe. The Huskies limp into town with an awful 1-6-1 ATS ledger after a week of rest and a money-burning 2-11 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points. Folks, this is the best Oregon team we’ve seen since they ditched the ho-hum Green & Gold uniforms of old and hired the costume designer from “Flash Gordon” to put a futuristic spin on their duds. Washington is in the wrong place at the wrong time. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Oklahoma +6 v. LSU | 17-37 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Fan sentiment toward coach Kelly is not running high – especially with his choke-on-a-bone $61 million contract buyout likely ensuring his return next season. As for this evening’s showdown in Red Stick, Kelly stands 0-3 ATS as a career favorite of fewer than seven points in Last Home Game situations. Worse, his team enters on a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS run and is flatter than Louisiana roadkill. The Sooners only have momentum from the win over Bama, as this will be their first chance to register back-to-back victories since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. But compared to lifeless LSU, it’s enough for us considering that Oklahoma is 21-7 SUATS in regular season finales, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Notre Dame v. USC +8 | Top | 49-35 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Mismatch of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Dame is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or fewer points, 1-5 ATS with single revenge, and 3-6 ATS in this series with a .900 or greater win percentage. Ugh. While USC is 7-2 ATS in Last Home Games and 8-3-1 ATS as a dog in Last Home games, including 6-0 ATS with a sub .600 win percentage. Don’t forget about head coach Lincoln Riley, who stands 9-4-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0-1 ATS with a sub .700 win percentage. Consider that playing against Notre Dame in its final game of the regular season if they own a .900 or greater win percentage and they are facing a foe who allows fewer then 22 PPG is 6-0 ATS. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College -4 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Boston College is looking to make amends for last year’s 24- 16 loss while sporting a 22-10 ATS record when seeking revenge for a conference loss. That spread record (since 2016) includes a 5-0 ATS mark against foes coming off a pair of losses. Pitt, meanwhile, has lost four straight after a 7-0 start, getting crushed 37-9 by Louisville on Saturday, as the Cardinals knocked Panther QB Eli Holstein out of the game in the first quarter and eventually outgained Pitt, 509-365. It’s all part of a 1-7 nosedive by these Cats in their final five games of the season for the past two seasons. |
|||||||
11-30-24 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +11 | 36-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Be careful here, folks. Tennessee is 1-5 versus conference revenge in the last two seasons and 1-4 as road favorites of more than six points. The cuffs and collars just don’t match. Besides, Vandy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when they have a winning record (including 3-1 SUATS) and 4-1 against the number when playing an SEC foe with a better-than .800 win percentage. We love how well Vandy teams have gone toe-to-toe with the Vols. Head coach Clark Lea has this program moving in the right direction – the Commodores won just nine games in the previous four seasons, and now they are guaranteed to finally complete the regular season at or above the .500 mark in this campaign. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | Virginia Tech v. Duke +3 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units VPI head coach Brent Pry is just 1-7 SUATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. On the flip side, the Devils will be hitting the alleys for the third straight season, this time under veteran first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Yes, we get the fact that the Dukies are a mind-blowing 2-32 outright in Game Eleven of the season, but they are also 7-2 ATS as Game Eleven home dogs when seeking revenge (lost 47-45 and 38-35 in the past two seasons to the Heels). With that, we need to consider that Duke head coach Manny Diaz is 9-2 ATS as a dog of 11 or fewer points, including 5-0 ATS versus sub .600 opponents. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | Baylor v. Houston +8 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units After a puzzling 27-3 loss to Arizona, the 4-4 Cougars will need to pull off a pair of wins in their final two games to take first-year head coach Willie Fritz to a bowl game – a win here and next week at BYU. This will be Houston’s last game at TDECU Stadium, and that’s a plus for the Cats, who are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in home finales, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when they surrender fewer than 24 points per game. The real trouble for the Bears is a defense that has allowed 36 points per game in its last seven games. Now, coming off four consecutive revenge wins in a row, we need to consider that playing against any college football team from Game Ten out coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater opponent is 18-37-2 ATS in this role. When dressed as favorites of 8 or fewer points, they slip to 9-27-1 ATS, including 1-12 ATS if they won three or fewer games last season. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | Texas Tech -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Red Raiders clinched a bowl pass two games ago and promptly went into the toilet bowl with a 41-27 loss to Colorado the next week. They arrive here with a week of rest to right themselves at 10-2 ATS games when coming off a double-digit loss and 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog. While the Cowboys do own a nifty 9-2 ATS ledger as a home dog, all we need to do is look at their 500-yard defense that helped put them behind a stats log of -116 net yards per game. Look for Tech to get back on track today against a dog with zero bite. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | BYU +3 v. Arizona State | 23-28 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ll gladly take the points with a BYU squad that has cashed three straight tickets in this series and catches the Sun Devils with blood rival Arizona waiting on deck. ASU can knock the Mormons out of second place in the Big 12 race with a win, but we think that’s just too large of a leap for the Pitch Forks especially considering that playing on any CFB dog who started the season 7-0 or greater coming off its initial loss of the year if they are facing a foe that won 7 or fewer games last season who won its previous game by fewer than 40 points is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Cougars start a new win streak. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | Kentucky +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 16 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units A bunch of good numbers suggests UK might get the money even if they don’t win on the scoreboard. The Cats are 6-0 ATS in LRG (Last Road Games), 6-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points, and 6-2 ATS away versus an .850 or better league foe. Meanwhile, hidden within the layers of the Longhorns’ 9-1 record is the troubling fact that head coach Steve Sarkisian is just 10-16-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins and facing foes who allow fewer than 24 points per game, including 5-12-1 ATS from Game Six out. The line is hovering around three TDs at the moment, but if you’re still having second thoughts about backing the 4-6 Wildcats with their backs to the bowl wall, then consider that Kentucky is 18-5 outright and 18-4 ATS when coming off a non-conference home game, including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS away. |
|||||||
11-23-24 | Indiana +12 v. Ohio State | 15-38 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Buckeyes are 29-0 SU in the last twenty-nine games of this series – that is simply unbelievable!! They are also 10-1 ATS at home versus conference opponents with rest but only 2-5 ATS as Big Ten favorites of 15 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti got a $64 million contract on his week off. Aside from history, the knock is that IU has played a soft slate, with nary a win against a Top 25 team this season. Still, it’s rare to find a 10-0 underdog catching this many points. In fact, there have been 13 underdogs with a 10-0 record in Game Eleven of the season. They are 8-5 ATS overall, including 1-0 ATS when taking more than 12 points (Miami, Fla lost 18-16 at Arkansas in 1988 as a 16-point dog). Cignetti is also 10-1 ATS away in conference games, plus 21-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when undefeated with the better record. |
|||||||
11-21-24 | NC State +9 v. Georgia Tech | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tech has been a wreck when coming off a game like their previous encounter with Miami, going 2-9 ATS as the favorite when they were a dog in the last game. Worse, beating Miami seems to send Ga. Tech into a stupor, going 0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a win over the Hurricanes. The Wolfpack are among the many 5-5 teams needing that one more win for a bowl game, and they have a 9-2 ATS mark in ACC games vs. a team coming off an ACC tilt. Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. Finally, NCSU is 24-5 ATS with rest in conference play since 1997, and that includes a hefty 11-1 SUATS, versus .600 or worse opponents. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. BYU | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units While a bowl bid will take a borderline miracle – Kansas hasn’t taken four conference games in a row since 2007. Can you spell u-p-s-e-t? Meanwhile, speaking of miracles, it was a wild finish for the miraculous Mormons in the Holy War, as the Cougars used a dramatic defensive holding penalty to get a second chance and defeat the Utes on a field goal with three seconds to play. It was the second time in the last three games that BYU (now ranked #8) won in the final ten seconds. However, the miracles may have come to an end with the visit from the Jayhawks today. BYU is 3-8 ATS at home with revenge, and with the pressure mounting with each passing game for the Cougs, look to the fact that College football teams that have remained unbeaten begin to feel the pressure as the season wears on. This is especially true in the game after escaping with a scant one-point victory. It’s confirmed that these ‘close shave’ artists are just 19-15 SU and 11-21 ATS in the game after that when facing conference opponents. Worse, these escape artists dip to 6-11 SU and 2-13 ATS when they own a rushing attack that averages fewer than 188 rushing yards per game. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Wake Forest +11 v. North Carolina | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wake Forest lost the Friday night track meet to Cal last week, 46-36, when they were outgained 500-386 and turned the ball over four times. However, they are 10-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss and facing a foe coming off a SUATS win, and previously registered a pair of hard-fought wins over UConn and Stanford behind former Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier. In addition, at 4-5 / 2-3 on the season, the Demon Deacons need to pick up two wins in their final three games to go bowling, and they’ll come hard and get one here. Meanwhile, the Heels own a scary 1-6 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in this series when they come off a double-digit win. UNC head coach Mack Brown struggles in games against foes coming off an outright loss as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS when his troops are coming off consecutive wins, including 0-9 ATS when favored by 6 or more points. Finally the Tar Heels are a horrid 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS as double-digit chalk. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Oregon v. Wisconsin +14 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
Big-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is 44-11 outright at home in his career, including 27-2 in games in which his team is surrendering fewer than 17.5 PPG. And when it comes to being cast in the role of big home underdog, Bucky has cashed in four of the last five tries when getting 14 or fewer points in Madison. Hopefully, someone with the Oregon contingent will see fit to mention the passing of the great John Robinson, who was a player and coach for the Ducks before moving on to USC and the Los Angeles Rams. With the Ducks eyeing up a double-revenge affair next week against the Huskies, we expect to see some feathers ruffled before they escape tonight. If you need more, there is always the fact that playing against any 10-0 CFB favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .555 or greater is 21-3 ATS. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Boston College v. SMU -19 | 28-38 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First, the Eagles have burned the money of late when taking on an .800 or greater conference opponent, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries. Second and most disturbing is the program’s sudden decline in cashing tickets as an ACC dog away from Chestnut Hill. Normally reliable in that role, the Eagles have done a U-turn into some road fog, going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when taking points on the conference road. Ugh. The Mustangs get lucky this afternoon in Dallas, as it marks Game Number Ten on their schedule, where they’ve gone 3-0 SUATS the last three years by an average win margin of 23 points per game. The margin here isn’t a problem, either, with the Ponies now 7-1 ATS as home chalk of 13 or more points. And we didn’t even mention that SMU was resting up last week while the Eagles were engaged in hand-to-hand combat with Syracuse. Mustangs’ head coach Brett Lashlee won’t let this opportunity slip away. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -22.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Virginia is off to its best season under third-year head coach Tony Elliott and shows up in South Bend with a profitable 5-1 ATS record of late as dogs of 17 or more points. Bad timing plagues the Cavaliers here, though, as UVA is off a huge upset win over previously unbeaten Pitt last week, and they’re a crash-and-burn 1-8 ATS after facing the Panthers. We know the Irish have a date with possibly unbeaten Army next week, but they’ve managed to go 6-1 ATS before battling the Black Knights. They’re also 4-0 ATS of late versus the Wahoos and 14-2 ATS when coming off a home favorite win. With the Dame resting in the Top Ten in the current Playoff Poll, they move forward today with another win and cover against ACC adversaries. |
|||||||
11-16-24 | Utah +12 v. Colorado | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units What a difference a year makes: the Utes were the unanimous choice to win the Big 12, while the Buffaloes were the No. 11 choice. And now Kyle Whittingham and company are getting doubles in this matchup? We don’t think so, not with the Utes controlling the series of late, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS at Folsom Field. Utah is also 10-2 ATS when coming off an outright home dog loss and 24-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points under Kyle Whittingham, including 18-2 ATS versus foes that allow 17 or more PPG. Bad before-and after numbers plague the Buffaloes, who are 0-3 ATS after Texas Tech and 1-7 ATS before Kansas. The bottom line is that this is too many points to lay to the Utes, and consider that Colorado is 2-11 outright in this series, with the two wins coming by a combined total of 8 points |
|||||||
11-09-24 | BYU v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 57 h 25 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Utes are on a rare 4-game losing streak and are clearly nowhere near the national contender we expected them to be entering the season, many good numbers are supporting them this week. Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in this series, 4-0 ATS in Game Nine, and 4-2 versus the number with rest. Finally, Tte Utes are 20-2-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a SUATS loss, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated foes.? |
|||||||
11-09-24 | Virginia +7.5 v. Pittsburgh | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Panthers are 1-3 ATS vs. conference opponents who are rested, 1-3 in the first half of back-to-back home games, and 3-6 ATS as conference favorites of 10 or greater. In this series, for some reason, the visiting team is 4-0 ATS, plus the Wahoos are 3-0 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 6-1 ATS off a bye, and for good measure, 9-3 ATS when off a SU loss, of 21 or greater. Finally, the Cavaliers are 16-2 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or more points, including 8-0 ATS when seeking revenge. |
|||||||
11-09-24 | Alabama v. LSU +3 | Top | 42-13 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Alabama is just 1-4 ATS off a home shutout win and 2-4 ATS versus single conference revenge, while new coach Kalen DeBoer stands 2-5 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS versus foes who allow 23.2 or fewer points per game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Brian Kelly’s Tigers are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss of 14 or more points, 11-2 ATS with single conference revenge, and 6-2 ATS versus a rested foe. LSU is also 25-6 SU and 18-7 ATS during the regular season when coming off one loss, including 15-3 SUATS versus foes who allow more than 18.5 points per game. Finally, LSU is 16-2-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS loss versus a foe off a win as a favorite who allows more than 12 points per game, including 10-0 ATS the last ten games. |
|||||||
11-09-24 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 36-45 | Win | 100 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Jayhawks are 14-8 SUATS at home in this series, including 3-0 ATS with rest over the last 3 years. KU head coach Lance Liepold is also 32-13-1 ATS at home, including 15-2-1 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents, and Kansas is 5-1 versus the number as home dogs of less than 8 points. Iowa State is 0-4 ATS as conference favorites against a foe that won 8 or greater games last season that allows fewer than 25 PPG. The Clones are still suffering from having such a heart-breaking ‘bubble burst” defeat, and we see Kansas capitalizing on that today. Finally, playing against any CFB road favorite that started the season 8-0 if they are coming off its first loss and are facing a .666 or fewer foe that allows 15 or more points that is coming off a SUATS loss is 13-1. |
|||||||
11-09-24 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech +11 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mario Cristobal’s troops have overcome adversity in several games this season after halftime, today they enter the contest going up against a plethora of bad trends: 1-6 ATS after playing Duke, 1-7 ATS when coming off a win versus foe coming off a loss, 2-6 ATS as conference road favorites of less than 14 points, and 2-5 against the number with single conference revenge. Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS when they are coming off a double-digit loss and a 10-2 ATS record as a home dog versus a foe coming off a SUATS win. Finally, Georgia Tech has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. |
|||||||
11-09-24 | Syracuse +2 v. Boston College | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 4-4 / 1-3 Eagles are in bowl-seeking mode but are “leaking oil” at the wrong time of the season, going 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) in their last three games in the ACC. They have also been a bit turnover-prone this season, and Bill O’Brien needs to turn it around quickly, or BC will be home for the holidays. Meanwhile, you must like the momentum the Cuse are playing with after rallying for an overtime, bowl-clinching win against Virginia Tech last week. Ohio State transfer QB Kyle McCord has been everything head coach Fran Brown had hoped for in the first season for both men at the Cuse, but now is the time for the Orangemen to keep the pedal to the metal – upset time in Chestnut Hill. |
|||||||
11-08-24 | California -7 v. Wake Forest | 46-36 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Deamon Deacons are 1-9 ATS when both teams are coming off ATS wins. It’s not like Cal is flexing coming into the weigh-in either; they’re 0-4 in conference play, losing those games by a total of nine points, and must grab two ACC victories to make bowl eligibility. Wake is weak as a home dog, 0-4 SU, and 0-3-1 ATS as a home underdog against teams coming off a SUATS win. If Cal is going to take advantage of trolling the Deacons in the forest, running back Jaydn Ott must return to form. Ott returned from injury in the Oregon State win two weeks ago, and the bye week should be good for his bum ankle. |
|||||||
11-02-24 | USC v. Washington +2.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units USC HC, Riley, is 8-20 ATS when favored on the road, including 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off consecutive losses. Washington is also 8-0 In the Stats, which puts them as a ‘play on’ dog. Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-18 ATS away versus conference foes coming off consecutive losses, including 0-7 ATS against foes who won seven or more games during the regular season last year |
|||||||
11-02-24 | Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 11 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units South Carolina has limited four of their last six foes to season-low yardage, while the Aggies have been out yarded in each of their last two victories and three of their last four games overall. Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS away versus single conference revenge and a 4-13 ATS as a Game Seven conference favorite. The Gamecocks, though, are 4-1 ATS of late when playing after a week of rest off a SU win. With the Aggies coming off that huge conference revenge victory over LSU, we back this Homecoming dog. Finally, Texas A&M is 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in its last dozen road games, including 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against winning opponents. |
|||||||
11-02-24 | Florida +16.5 v. Georgia | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The gators are 6-1-1 ATS with triple conference revenge and 6-3 as SEC dogs of more than 8 points. Meanwhile, the 6-1 / 4-1 Dawgs are a full game behind Texas A&M for the top spot in the SEC, so this is not the time to take the foot off the gas. Georgia is also 4-12 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points when coming off three wins. The Bulldogs are looking for their 7th win in the last eight years against Florida in Jacksonville, but this one will not be easy. |
|||||||
11-02-24 | Vanderbilt +7 v. Auburn | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Commadores have been a dog lover’s dream this season (5-0 ATS with the dog in each of their games going 7-0 ATS). They played well defensively against Texas, sacking Quinn Ewers four times in the 27-24 loss and intercepting him twice. Commodores’ QB Diego Pavia managed to throw for just 155 yards but did toss two touchdown passes. Also, be aware that the visitor has covered the spread in the last three meetings of this series and that Vandy is 4-1 on the road against .400-or-less conference opposition. On the flip side, Auburn is just 1-4 at home when coming off back-to-back road games and 2-5 as conference chalk of 8 points or less. |
|||||||
11-02-24 | Duke +20.5 v. Miami-FL | 31-53 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Miami, off revenge wins over Florida State and Louisville in the last two games, is 4-21 ATS when coming off a win versus a foe off a loss, including 0-8 ATS in the last eight games. They are also 1- 8 ATS in the second of conference home contests and 3-9 ATS as conference favorites of more than 13 points. The 8-0 Canes will be favored in every game moving forward. However, if you put each of the opponents that the Hurricanes have blown past this season on a weight scale, they would hardly move the needle, with a lot of empty calories in a combined record of 25-27. Finally, Miami is 0-4 SUATS when coming off consecutive revenge victories when they allow more than 20 PPG on the season. |
|||||||
11-02-24 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7 | 63-31 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 20 m | Show | |
Dog of the Day Rating: 3 Units Ole Miss is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against single revenge and 3-8-1 ATS in Game 9. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have covered the last four games of this series and even more impressive, are 10-1 ATS in the last eleven. They are also 6-3 in their last nine contests against .700-or-better SEC foes. With the 5-3 / 3-2 Hogs still in the running in the upper half of the salty 16-team SEC conference, consider that Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is 15-3 ATS as a home dog in games when the Razorbacks allow fewer than 26 PPG, including 9-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | SMU v. Duke +12 | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 6-1 / 3-0 Mustangs are acquainting themselves well in the ACC, one of four teams with an unblemished record in conference play this season. However, they are just 3-7 ATS on the road versus .700-or-better opposition and just 2-4 against the number in the second of back-to-back road tilts. Duke is 7-1 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points and are 4-1 ATS after a Weekday game. We like double-digit home dogs with the better defense, and we love Duke today. Finally, the Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS as a conference home dog with a.333 or greater win percentage, including 10-1-1 ATS when not coming off an ATS loss of 20 or more points. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | LSU +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 23-38 | Loss | -100 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Both of these teams lost their season opener, but LSU is really rounding into form and is now on a six-game win streak. Additionally, LSU is 14-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back games, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS versus greater than .400 opponents. Unfortunately, A&M is also 0-9 ATS in this series when coming off consecutive wins and just 3-7 as conference home chalk of less than 5 points. Finally, SEC road dogs are 14-3 ATS this season, including 13-2 ATS in conference games. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | Penn State v. Wisconsin +6.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Unit Franklin is 0-3 SUATS in his career away during the regular season games with rest against greater than .666 opponents. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS at home in this series when both teams are off a win. Finally the Badgers are 14-2 ATS as a conference home dog with a .700 or greater win percentage, including 13-0 ATS as a dog of more than two points. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | Texas v. Vanderbilt +19 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The much-improved Commodores are one of five teams to pull off outright wins as an underdog this season. It’s not often you find an 18-point home dog in a matchup of AP ranked teams (Vandy No. 25; Longhorns No. 5). Vandy is also 4-1 versus the number as home dogs of more than two touchdowns, and on the heels of a massive “bubble burst” letdown, we won’t be hooking any Horns today. Finally, 6-0 teams off their first loss of the season as a favorite in Game Seven – ‘bubble-burst’ teams, if you will – are particularly despondent after having just seen dreams of a perfect season go up in smoke. That’s confirmed by the fact that these teams are just 20-33-1 ATS In Game Eight since 1980, including 8-19 ATS away in conference contests. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | BYU v. Central Florida -1.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cougars had better not get too comfortable reading all the press clippings, though, as the notes show that 7-0 road favorites in Game Eight of the season are just 4-10 ATS if they allow 19 or more points per game, including 1-9 ATS against foes who won eight or fewer games last season. Considering Central Florida’s success under Scott Frost and Josh Heupel, Gus Malzahn seemed the right hire to continue the Knights’ winning ways. However, an 18-9 debut was derailed by last season’s 6-7 finish, and this year’s 3-4 effort has the natives restless in Orlando. BYU owns a sweet 6-0 ATS mark before a week of rest and a 5-1 ATS log when playing away off back-to-back, but we’re more impressed by UCF’s 7-1 ATS success versus .850 or better conference opponents. Finally, UCF is 13-4 ATS versus undefeated opponents, including 5-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. |
|||||||
10-26-24 | Notre Dame v. Navy +13.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -111 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 12th-ranked Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in Game 8 and 5-1 before a Week of Rest, so there is plenty of Irish ammunition here. However, playing on any 5-0 or greater college football home or neutral dog seeking revenge versus a non-conference opponent if the dog allows 21 or fewer points per game is 15-1 ATS. Additionally, Notre Dame is just 3-11-1 ATS as a favorite versus avenging undefeated foes. As for the 24th-ranked Midshipmen, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus .700-or-better foes. Finally, college football home dogs who scored 50-plus points in their last games are 47-30 ATS since 1985, including 8-0 ATS in the last eight games. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | SMU -16.5 v. Stanford | 40-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU stands 9-2 ATS when coming off a SU dog win and 9-2 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss. Those numbers look like solid gold compared to Stanford’s 1-14 ATS record when coming off a road loss and the 2-13 ATS mark when coming off an ATS loss versus a foe coming off an ATS win. We don’t like laying doubles on the road, but the Ponies have way too much firepower to be contained by head coach Troy Taylor’s defense. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | Kentucky -125 v. Florida | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Gators beat Kentucky 31 straight times, but since then, the Wildcats have taken four of the last six thanks to a defense-first mentality that can break an opponent; this year’s edition is ranked #4 in the nation at 251.5 ypg. Under Beleaguered Billy Napier, UF is 3-9 outright from Game Six on. Kentucky already smoked Ole Miss despite being a 15-point underdog and battled CFP contender Georgia to the tape before the Bulldogs prevailed. Finally, Mark Stoops is 8-3 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite, including 4-0 SUATS against .500 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | Georgia +5 v. Texas | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This may be Georgia’s first visit to Austin since 1958 but don’t go to sleep on these Bulldogs. Smart boasts a 15-5 SU and 12-8 ATS versus undefeated foes, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against foes who scored fewer than 40 points in their game, as well as a 6-2 ATS mark in the Dawgs’ last eight games as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than five points. Texas is 0-5 ATS after Oklahoma, 1-5-1 ATS as home chalk of seven or fewer points, and 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten showdowns with .750 or greater conference opponents. In addition, Georgia HC Smart is 84-54-8 ATS in his career, including 35-15-1 ATS if his team was favored by six or more points in its last game when hitting the road. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | Alabama v. Tennessee +3 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Josh Heupel will look to cool things down: he is 30-6 with an 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark at home with a greater-than-.800-win percentage when facing foes with a better-than-.400 record. Additionally, playing on any unrested 5-1 college football underdog of 7 or fewer points in Game Seven if they are off one win that was preceded by a loss is 14-2 ATS plus they are 9-1 SUATS when both teams are coming off an ATS loss, including 9-0 SUATS against .333-or-greater foes. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | Michigan v. Illinois +4.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
Big-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The defending National Champions are 17-24-1 ATS as road favorites versus .833 or greater opponents. Add to that an 0-3 spread record coming off a double-digit SU loss and a 3-8-1 ATS mark with rest, and we start to have the makings of a solid case for the Fightin’ Illini, who have covered the last three meetings in this series. The Illini are also 3-1 versus conference opponents with rest, 9-2 ATS coming off a conference home game, and 8-3-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-0 ATS with a winning record. Finally, playing on any unrested 5-1 college football underdog of 7 or fewer points in Game Seven if they are off one win that was preceded by a loss is 14-2 ATS. |
|||||||
10-19-24 | Nebraska v. Indiana -6.5 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Rhule has an 0-3 ATS record before tangling with Ohio State and 2-6 ATS mark when playing with rest. On the other side, Indiana is 7-0 ATS off a double-digit conference road win, 5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games, 12-2 ATS off a SUATS win, and 11-2 ATS off a double-digit win. |
|||||||
10-18-24 | Oklahoma State +9.5 v. BYU | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This is a last stand game for the Cowboys, and the numbers suggest they have a last shot…11-6 SUATS in game 7 conference games, 6-1 SUATS with rest, plus 10-3 off a SU home loss of 14 or more points. Finally, 6-0 teams playing Game 7 do not want to take on an opponent coming off an outright loss as a favorite – as they struggle mightily against these angry foes going just 17-8 SU and 6-19 ATS, including 0-10 ATS since 2010. Additionally, when these same teams engage in a conference contest, they fall to 14-8 SU and 4-18 ATS, including 9-8 SU and 2-15 ATS when facing a .500 or greater opponent. |
|||||||
10-12-24 | Ole Miss v. LSU +3.5 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 57 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units LSU was toppled in a wild 55-49 loss in Oxford last season, and they take the field backed by some strong revenge trends. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS with revenge when the Rebels arrive off a SUATS win, 5-1 ATS as a series dog with revenge, and 10-2 ATS in their last twelve with single SEC revenge. It’s also a bad price range for the Rebs, who are just 4-10 ATS as a conference favorite or dog of 4 or less points. The series host currently on a red-hot 6-0 ATS run. Finally, Bengals head coach Brian Kelly is 19-4 SU and 17-4-2 ATS with revenge versus a foe coming off a win, including 14-1-2 ATS when Kelly’s crew is coming off an ATS win of eight or more points. |
|||||||
10-12-24 | Arizona +4 v. BYU | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Dog of the Month Rating: 5 Units The visitor in this series has covered the number three straight times. In addition, Zona is 4-1 ATS versus an undefeated conference opponent, and they are 4-1 ATS as conference dogs of less than 8 points. The Cougars have opened with five straight wins. However, BYU is just 3-12 ATS with rest and 3-9 versus the number as home chalk of less than 8 points. Finally, Arizona head coach Brent Brennan is 4-0 ATS in his career as a dog versus undefeated foes when his team allows fewer than 24.5 PPG. |
|||||||
10-12-24 | Cincinnati +3 v. Central Florida | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cincinnati is 7-2-2 ATS as a road dog coming off a road game. Meanwhile, the Knights limp in off consecutive outright losses as a favorite, both by double-digits. Now they are just 3-3 SU in their last six home games; Gus Malzahn is only 1-5 ATS as a favorite when coming off consecutive losses. Cincinnati HC, Satterfield is 10-4 ATS with revenge when coming off a loss, including 5-1 ATS as a dog. Finally, teams that are 3-2 or better that take to the conference road when playing off one loss are 25-10-1 ATS when taking on opponents who allows 24 or more PPG, including 17-2 ATS if they are facing a foe with a winning record. |
|||||||
10-12-24 | Texas v. Oklahoma +14.5 | 34-3 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sooners are 18-9 ATS as a dog if they were a dog in their previous game, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games, and 8-0 ATS if they won their last game outright as a dog. Also consider that stingy 5-0 or greater favorites who allow 7.0 or fewer points per game are 8-18 ATS when facing foes coming off a win of six or more points. We look for OU to improve on its 8-3 ATS record as dogs of 15 or fewer points. |
|||||||
10-12-24 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina +5.5 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The Ramblin’ Wreck is just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS as road chalk over the last ten years, including 0-7 ATS versus .500-or-greater opponents. Tech is also 4-8 SU and 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite against opponents seeking revenge (they beat UNC, 46-42, as a 12-point dog last season). Meanwhile, North Carolina is 3-3 this season, after a 3-0 start, however head coach Mack Brown is 9-3 ATS at home with a .500 exact record, including 6-0 ATS in conference games against .666 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
10-05-24 | Miami-FL v. California +10.5 | Top | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Miami is 1-9 ATS off a SU win but an ATS loss, just 3-10 versus the spread as conference road chalk of less than 12 points, and 3-9 ATS in Game 6. This could very well be a flat spot for Miami as they probably should have lost that game against Tech and now must be ready to play in front of a raucous Game Day crowd in Berkeley, which undoubtedly will be high from an entire day of partying. Finally, the Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS as home dogs of more than 6 points and 8-3 against the number when coming off a SUATS conference road loss. |
|||||||
10-05-24 | Michigan v. Washington -1 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huge revenge shot for Huskies, after going down to Wolves in LY's title match. First RG for Michigan, which lost not only 9 offensive starters, but HC Harbaugh. Therefore ranking 115th in total "O" is hardly a surprise. Washington's "D", however, has come from ranking 104th to 7th. And QB Rogers is at 10/0, in replacing brilliant Penix. Huskies waited 9 months for this. Additionally, new UDub head coach brings a polished 9-2 ATS career mark in home conference games against .700 or better opposition and is also 8-3 ATS against conference opponents coming off back-to-back wins. |
|||||||
10-05-24 | Tennessee v. Arkansas +13.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Tennessee head coach is just 9-16 ATS versus conference opponents coming off a loss., including 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 13 or more points. The Vols are also 6-11 ATS as conference favorites when playing with rest, including 1-6 ATS when Tennessee is undefeated. On the other side of the coin, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven match ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points. In addition, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is an outstanding underdog going 20-8 ATS with his team, including 14-2 ATS in games when his team is allowing fewer than 26 PPG. |
|||||||
10-05-24 | Colorado State v. Oregon State -11 | 31-39 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon State is 19-3 at Reser Stadium since 2017 while producing a 15-3 ATS record in the process. They are also 10-3 ATS in head-to-head battles with the Mountain West conference. Additionally, the Rams check in with a dull 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS ledger in games after a home win. |
|||||||
10-05-24 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +3 | 34-24 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pitt is 4-0 for the first time since 2000 but Narduzzi is 1-3 ATS in conference games coming off a win of 32 points or greater, but that last win two weekends ago was against Youngstown State. Historically, Pitt has whiffed in their last three attempts to reach 5-0, going 0-2-1 ATS. UNC is 5-0 ITS (In The Stats), and outgaining opponents by more than 100 yards per game. The series has also been kind to the Heels, going 10-4 SUATS, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as host. During the last three years, Carolina is 14-3 outright during the first six games of the season. Finally, UNC Head Coach Mack Brown is 6-2 ATS when his team is coming off two losses, including 3-0 SUATS away. |
|||||||
09-28-24 | Colorado v. Central Florida -13.5 | 48-21 | Loss | -124 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game Four of the College Football season is often a critical stepping-stone for teams who play at home with a week of rest. When these reinvigorated home teams take the field with a week of rest in Game Four of the season and find themselves favored, they are a super-strong 102-81-1 ATS overall since 1980, including 56-37 ATS when hosting a foe coming off a win. Better yet, when the foe comes off consecutive wins, they zoom to 41-8 SU and 32-17 ATS. Bring our host in with a defense that surrenders 20 or fewer points per game and they are 28-2 SU and 22-8 ATS. |
|||||||
09-28-24 | Oklahoma +2 v. Auburn | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Sooners fell six spots in the AP Poll after the loss to Tennessee, they own some serious ATS edges this afternoon: 12-1 ATS when coming off a loss as a dog, 5-1 ATS before a Week of Rest, and 21-2 SU and 16-7 ATS when coming off a double-digit defeat. The Tigers are a dreadful 6-19 SU in the last 25 games versus power conference foes. |
|||||||
09-28-24 | Maryland v. Indiana -6 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana hasn’t turned the ball over and owns a +7-turnover margin, as they have run roughshod over their first four opponents. The Hoosiers are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and 9-2 ATS when playing after a double-digit win. Indiana is 4-0 SU and, in the Stats, against FBS opponents, holding three of them to season-low yardage. |
|||||||
09-28-24 | Kentucky +18 v. Ole Miss | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 39 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Ole Miss is 1-6 against the number as conference home chalk of more than 10 points and an equally sad 1-6 ATS versus an SEC opponent with triple revenge. The visitor in this series is 3-0 ATS, while Kentucky is 3-0 SUATS in their 1st road game and 3-0 ATS in Game 5. In addition, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS before a Week of Rest, 7-2 ATS as dogs of more than 11 points, and 3-1 ATS in their last four contests with triple revenge. The Wildcats own a wondrous 15-1 ATS record when coming off a non-conference contest and are facing a.500 or greater opponent. Finally, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 17-5 ATS with a .500 or greater record versus undefeated foes, including 11-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
|||||||
09-28-24 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Game Five matchups of 3-1 teams - each coming off a loss – the visiting team is just 2-8 ATS, including 0-7 ATS if they surrender more than 17 points per game. Another important stat to note is the fact that the host is 6-0 ATS in this series. K-State is also 4-1 ATS with single conference revenge and 4-1 ATS as Big 12 favorites of less than a TD. Finally, Kansas State is 21-4-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS loss, including 18-0 ATS when the Wildcats sport a .375 or greater win percentage. |
|||||||
09-27-24 | Virginia Tech +19.5 v. Miami-FL | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tech is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games in a triple revenge matchup and 7-2 ATS as a conference dog of 10 or more points. . The Canes are 0-5 ATS as a conference favorite of eight or greater, plus they’re 0-4 ATS after a non-conference roadie. Miami is also 4-18 ATS coming off a victory when facing an opponent after a loss including 1-15 ATS against teams .333 or lower. Finally, Miami is 2-12 ATS at home when coming off four wins, including 0-11 ATS against teams coming off scoring 20 or more points. |
|||||||
09-21-24 | Kansas State v. BYU +6.5 | Top | 9-38 | Win | 100 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The Wildcats are 12-11-2 ATS, including 3-7 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. KSU is 7-1 ATS after a Weekday game but just 2-6 ATS as conference road chalk of 12 or fewer points. In addition, Kleiman has a revenge payback on deck against Oklahoma State. On the flip side, BYU is 4-1 ATS at home off back-to-back road games and 18-5 ATS as a dog, including 11-1 ATS over the last twelve games. Finally, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in games when both teams are undefeated, including 10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win. |