Rating: 3 Units

Yes, the Ducks have been known to unleash hell from above on many occasions in Autzen Stadium. Still, despite their invincible reputation, they’re only 2-5 ATS versus FBS foes when coming off an outright win as an underdog, including 0-3 SUATS when the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Hoosiers’ head coach Cignetti is 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in conference games with an undefeated record, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in games in which his team surrenders 13 or fewer points per game for the season.

Rating: 2 Units

We understand the lure of Rhule’s 65-45-3 ATS career mark as a CFB head coach, but he’s only 11-14-3 ATS with Nebraska, including 7-13 SU and 6-11-3 ATS in Big Ten bouts. The Terps enter off their initial loss of the season when they blew a 20-0 lead to lose 24-20 here against Washington last week. The good news for Maryland backers is that the Terps are 16-9 straight-up off their first season loss, including 3-1 SUATS in contests where they allow 17 or fewer points per game. The better news is Maryland’s 6-1 SUATS mark at home coming off a home loss, especially when the Terrapins are entertaining a squad playing its first true road game of the season. 

Rating: 3 Units

Bama is 2-0 in conference and the mid-season projected number one SEC team for a playoff berth. Bama Coach Kalen DeBoer can stop texting his real estate agent, too. In the series, the Crimson Tide is 4-1 in the last five but strangely 0-3 ATS before they play Tennessee and 1-3 ATS in Game 6. Mizzou is 5-1 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, 5-1 ATS as the home dog of eight or fewer points, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven in an SEC revenge matchup. Finally, SEC  home dogs are 5-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 ATS versus .750 or greater foes

Dog of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

This is the first time the Hurricanes have been ranked this high since 2017, and in their next game, they fell flat on their face at Pitt in a 24-12 loss. We’ve seen it time after time: undefeated CFB teams coming off a week of rest somehow turn to rust. The bottom line in this monster matchup? FSU ranks No. 1 in scoring and No. 1 in overall offense. Additionally, FSU HC Norvell is 32-21 ATS at home in his career, including 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage.  Finally, UM head coach Mario Cristobal is 9-17 ATS when playing with rest, including 1-9 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss.  

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

It’s hard for us to pass on Houston head coach Willie Fritz in his patented home cookin’ roles: 47-23 SU and 35-24-1 ATS overall, including 11-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in games in which they are allowing fewer than 16.0 points per game, including 4-0 ATS in conference games. The biggest problem for Tech is that they are laying double-digits into an opponent with a stingy defense, while the Red Raiders have taken backward steps in every game they’ve played this season (Texas Tech Offensive Production - Points scored: 67, 62, 45, and 34. Yards Gained: 608, 601, 599, and 484. )

Rating: 3 Units

It has been a difficult season for the Beavers, who controlled all but six minutes of last week’s game vs. Houston, only to lose in overtime to reach 0-5. It’s OSU West’s worst start in 13 years, thanks partly to an offense averaging less than 18 per game with a defense giving up twice that. App State after an incredible 88-36 ten-year run; the Mountaineers are 7-8. Part of that ten-year run was under the guidance of HC Shawn Clark, who passed away at age 50 last week, and we’re expecting a frantic effort from App. State in his memory. Consider that the Mountaineers are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS when coming off a non conference loss, including 6-0 SUATS off a loss of seven or more points. Finally, ASU is 47-7 outright at home since 2016 (24-1 in the last 25). 

Rating: 2 Units

Tide has quietly put a defensive stranglehold on opponents this season, holding all four to season low yardage. By the law of numbers, though, that would limit the Commodores to 322 yards at best in this fray, and that will not get the job done against an 11-point line. We think that’s a lot of points for revenge-minded Bama to be laying, especially knowing they are just 11-13-1 SU and 10-15 ATS at home with revenge when laying points to a foe with a better record. Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama squad is not without some positive credentials, however, going 6-1 ATS with single conference revenge, and 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 15 or fewer points. However,  Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea, is 15-9 ATS away (as opposed to 8-16 ATS at home), and 7-3 outright when his Commies sport an undefeated record. Finally, 5-0 college football underdogs in Game Six are 11-0 ATS coming off a double-digit win when facing an opponent they beat in a most recent matchup.

Rating: 3 Units

Boilermakers are a vastly improved team and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up with them yet. Yes, the Illini are no longer pushovers under head coach Bret Bielema, and they have cashed six straight tickets as Big Ten road chalk. Still, Bielema was 0-3 on the scoreboard against Purdue before edging the ‘Makers last year, 50-49. Also, let’s not forget that Illinois has mighty Ohio State on deck after this one. We’ll take whatever we can get with the Boilermakers in this high-noon shootout.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UC is an odd 0-4 ATS in the first of consecutive home games and 1-4 ATS in a double-revenge game; ISU is 2-0 in the series. The Cyclones are 9-0 ATS in Game 6 and 5-0 ATS against double revenge. Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby has had a solid season so far with 1,260 total yards, but the ISU defense is giving up just 14.2 ppg. Consider that 5-0 college football underdogs in Game Six are 11-0 ATS coming off a double-digit win when facing an opponent they beat in a most recent matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hilltoppers have an offensive reputation (the football kind) and QB Maverick McIvor keeps it alive with an 11:2 TD/INT ratio while throwing for 294 YPG. He’s managed to keep WRs Matthew Henry and KD Hutchinson happy; they each have 17 catches and 5 TDs. The Blue Hens have been feisty in their FBS debut, clocking FIU in Pitbull Stadium two weeks ago, with QB Nick Minucci leading the way with 266 YPG and eight TD tosses. Delaware is somehow favored in this game, and the first time they had this distinction, they couldn’t handle it against FCS foe Delaware State, so why should we trust them against a 4-1 WKU team? Remember that Western K. is better on both sides of the ball and getting a few points to boot.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico State is 8-0 ATS as a weekday host. SHSU has already lost more games, four, than they did in last year’s 10-3 season. Not shocking to see the Bearkats are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats), SU, and ATS, and being outgained by 215 yards per game. The Aggies are tough to run against, and Sam Houston is weak offensively, has given up at least 37 points per game on defense, and will be facing a very pass-heavy NMSU team that gets 91% of its offense in the air. Don't understand why Sam Houston was made the favorite, so I'm looking at this as WTF-Wrong Team Favored. 

Rating: 3 Units

Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 5-23 (.179) all-time versus AP Top 10-ranked foes, and his team is just 2-6 ATS off three or more SU wins. Oregon outlasted Penn State in a 45-37 thriller last year, and the Ducks have cashed in four of their previous five games against a revenging opponent. Consider that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 1-18 outright in his career against AP Top 5-ranked opponents. Finally playing on any college football underdog in any regular season game from Game Four onward if both teams have a 1.000 winning percentage and is coming in as a dog of 7 or fewer points against an opponent coming off a win of more than 25 points, is a massive 30-8-1 ATS (79%).

Rating: 3 Units

Rating: 2 Units

LSU is 1-5 ATS versus single revenge, 1-5 ATS as a conference favorite or dog of three or fewer points, and 10-20-1 ATS away off a double-digit win, including 4-13 ATS versus .750 or greater foes. On the other side of the field, Ole Miss has been an 11-1 ATS money machine when laying host to the Tigers, not to mention a 4-1 ATS effort in the third of four straight home games. The coaching comparison is one-sided as well: Kelly is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away as a pick or dog of 3 or fewer points when coming off a win, while Kiffin rules with a 7-1 outright record at home in games involving undefeated teams.

Rating: 3 Units

Ohio State is not an automatic bet regarding being road chalk in a specific price range, going just 1-4 ATS the last five tries as a road favorite of 14 or fewer points.  The Huskies have committed just one turnover this season, plus they own a 5-1 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. OSU’s 7-1-1 ATS record in its first Big Ten game of the year gives one pause; however, the Huskies are winning the stats, with an average +274 net YPG compared to the Buckeyes’ average of +245. Does that sound like a 7-point game to you? We’re thinking more like three. 

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

USC has gone 0-4 ATS off four-plus SU wins, and 2-8 ATS in its last ten conference road games, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points. The Trojans will also be dealing with an early 12:00 noon Central Time start instead of their usual West Coast time. Bielema has lost just one game to the spread by more than 40 points, and he responded by winning outright, 31-10, as a home dog in the next game. The loss to IU was ugly, but Illinois still fields 17 starters on the nation’s No. 4 overall ranked team in Returning Production. Take the points with this red-faced Homecoming dog as the Illini spring the old Trojan Horse trick on USC.

5* CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Something is amiss in Manhattan, as Chris Kleiman’s 1-3 Wildcats are lost in a startling 1-6 SUATS skid in FBS contests of late, losing five games outright as a favorite. They’ll be hard-pressed to match emotional intensity with the visiting Knights today after UCF OL coach Shawn Clark died on Monday. The Knights are 3-0 SU and ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the total yards by an average +203 per game, while the Wildcats show up with a 0-5 ATS record when playing with rest. UCF is also playing with revenge from a 44-31 loss they suffered on this field in 2023. Consider that the Knights are 11-0 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points when coming off a SUATS win

Prime Time Profit Play

Rating: 2 Units

The Seminoles have flown into the #8 AP ranking, still living off the Alabama win, which is looking better all the time, but FSU is 1-5 ATS on weekdays. Much as FSU boss Mike Norvell wants the conversation directed on the Cavaliers, the October 4 Saturday night start time vs. Miami is big news, along with the anticipated arrival of “Gameday”. FSU is 2-10 ATS before playing the Hurricanes, including 0-4 ATS when undefeated. Virginia is 3-0 ATS in Game 4, 5-1 ATS on weekdays, and 4-0 ATS as the home dog vs. undefeated teams since 2014. It’s good for the often-picked-on ACC to have FSU and Virginia bouncing back, especially since Clemson is struggling and UNC is horrifying. Finally, the Cavaliers are 11-3-1 ATS in conference games, including 7-0 ATS against opponents coming off an ATS win.

Dog of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Miami dominated USF in a weather-delayed win, but the Canes aren’t dynamite at the end of a three-game homestand, going 1-5 ATS in the third straight HG. UM is also 1-4 ATS before the bye, while UF has a swamp full of favorable numbers. 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, 3-0 before a rest week, 13-2 ATS in 4th games, 6-1 ATS after LSU, and 4-1 ATS in a single revenge matchup. Finally, SEC underdogs are 4-1 SUATS this season against non-SEC opponents, with only Texas at Ohio State being the lone loser.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

You must go back 38 years to find a Top 20 matchup in Bloomington when the Hoosiers beat Michigan 14-10. In a close matchup, with star runners and receivers having nearly identical stats, we turn to our stats: Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 10 or less, 4-1 in Game Four, and 5-2 in single conference revenge. The Hoosiers have had a rough time in this series, 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS when coming off a victory, plus 1-4 ATS when coming off a shutout win.  The Illinois head coach, Bret Bielema, has literally been money-in-the bank in road games with his team, going 15-3 ATS, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than two points. Finally, playing against any 3-0 CFB home favorite in Game Four of a four-game season-opening homestand if they failed to score 40 or more points in each of their previous two games and they are facing an undefeated foe that allows fewer than 13.5 PPG is 13-2 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Garnet-and-Black won last season’s tussle with Missouri, and they’re 43-21-1 ATS as dogs of more than 12 points, including 5-0 ATS the last five games. And even if that trend is nullified by a line move below -12, the Gamecocks have still gone 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in conference games when coming off a loss as a favorite, including 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss of 13 or more points. The Tigers, who must have kidnapped the FBS schedule maker back in January, show up for their fourth of what will be SIX straight home games to open the campaign. They also bring along an 11-22 SUATS record versus a conference foe coming off an outright loss as a favorite, including 2-11 ATS at home, and 0-7 ATS when coming off a win of three or more points. Simply put, South Carolina cannot afford to start its SEC schedule 0-2 with LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama on the docket for October. Finally, with South Carolina off an ATS loss, teams in this situation are 131-85-4 ATS in these ‘Game Four' situations. Add them coming off a SU favorite loss they go to 73-40-3 ATS, including 41-14-2 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

For openers, the Flames have torched visiting teams at Williams Stadium lately with a 37-6 straight-up mark the last 8 years, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Any college football team with rest in Game Three in its second away game if it is coming off an ATS win, as JMU shows up in a role that’s gone just 18-34 ATS since 1980. Moreover, if teams in this scenario had a winning record of at least 15 victories over their last 22 games, they performed even worse – going 1-12 ATS, including 0-10 ATS since 1990 (The Dukes). That’s not good news if you’re laying points on a strong home field where you’ve yet to play a game. Also complicating matters for the Dukes is an 0-3 outright regular season record dating back to last year in FBS battles.

Rating: 2 Units

These may not be the same hapless Boilermakers that went 1-11 last season, not with savvy new head coach Barry Odom calling the shots. Purdue hung with USC the entire game last week, but three interceptions – one returned 70 yards for a TD – ultimately did them in. The Engineers bring some good ATS numbers into the fray, going 6-2 ATS away off three straight home games, and 9-3 ATS with non-conference revenge. Don’t fret that it’s Purdue’s first game away from home, as coach Odom is 3-1 ATS as a dog in his first road game of the year. And while Notre Dame has choked the cash out of Big Ten foes in the last six meetings, the Irish are just 6-14 ATS at home off consecutive losses.

Rating: 2 Units

Fickell’s young Badgers were crushed in Tuscaloosa last week, exposing their youth and lack of depth along the offensive line. They’re a weak favorite this week, and UW is 4-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 or more in their first conference game of the season, including 1-5 ATS against teams .500 or better. Maryland travels well in the B1G with a 4-2 SUATS mark in the first conference road game of the season, including 4-0 ATS vs. winning teams. The Terrapins come out of their shell in their first road games the last three years, going 3-0 SUATS. 

Friday Night Lights Laugher

Rating: 3 Units

Ex-Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis hasn’t thrown a pick while finding the end zone seven times for Rutgers, and is facing an Iowa defense that hasn’t picked off an enemy pass yet. 6’6” WR KJ Duff is the biggest headache the Hawkeyes’ secondary will deal with, while Iowa will find Rutgers’ defense a little tougher than the UMass unit Iowa hung 45 on. Hey, 45 points used to be three weeks’ worth for Iowa, so this is progress in the cornfields. Consider that Rutgers Boss Greg Schiano is 23-11 ATS in his career when his team scored 38 in its last game, including 13-1 ATS as a dog. 

Dog of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

South Carolina has been a sure bet in this matchup of late, going 9-1 ATS the last 10 meetings. However, our concern here is the high-profile Cocks haven’t been very game this season, opening 2-0 but out-yarded in both contests, averaging a mere 290.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 2-0 SUATS this season, winning the stats by 242 and 346 yards. The Commadores were 6-2 ATS as conference dogs in 2024 while SC is a mere 3-8 ATS recently as SEC home chalk of 7 or more points. Finally, Vandy is 5-0 ATS as a road dog under QB Diego Pavia, with three wins outright and the other two losses by 3 points as a 17-point dog and by 7 points as a 10-point dog.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida beat LSU 27-16 last year to snap a five-year losing skid against the Tigers. The Gators are also 3-0 ATS before a week of rest, 6-1 ATS away versus single revenge, and 3-1 ATS before LSU head coach Brian Kelly, is just 1-6 ATS at home in his career when coming off consecutive wins and tackling a foe coming off an outright loss as a favorite, including 0-4 ATS when his teams are unbeaten. Finally, Florida head coach Napier is 17-7 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 3-0 SUATS if his team scored fewer than 20 points.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Last year, Arkansas was embarrassed by Ole Miss 63-31, so revenge is on Sam Pittman’s mind. He’s 16-5-1 ATS overall away, including 6-1-1 ATS when his team has a win percentage of .600 or better. In the series, the Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12, 5-1 ATS away last year, …AND 11-2-1 ATS on the road seeking revenge, including 7-1 ATS as a dog of six or more. Finally,  Lane Kiffin’s at home defending against revenge is 9-16-2 ATS, including 0-4 ATS against the undefeated.

Rating: 2 Units

Cyclones' total war with Iowa has seemed as a sort of aphrodisiac, as they've exploded for 72, 42, 48, 43, & 52 pts in 5 of last 6 years.  Coincides with current 28-14 ATS run, along with Wolves' highly vulnerable defense, which is being butchered for 40 ppg along with 2024's 32 ppg.  Additionally,  ISU is 7-1 ATS after Iowa, 5-1 ATS before the bye.

CFB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

West Virginia HC Rodriguez remembers the 2007 Brawl, which saw his BCS title hopes go down in flames with a 13-9 loss to Pitt when WVU was a massive 28.5 point favorite. Rich did get them back in ’08 when his team ended Pitt’s undefeated dreams. Consider that Rodriguez is 12-6 SU and 10-6-1 ATS in his career when coming off his first loss of the season, including 9-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS when his team is yielding fewer than 24 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia was sluggish offensively vs. Austin Peay last week and dropped in the AP Top 25 from fourth to sixth. Bulldogs’ QB Gunner Stockton has his first road start in a stadium described by UGA Coach Kirby Smart as “deafening.” The Dawgs are a surprising 3-11 ATS before the bye week. It’s not often Tennessee is an underdog at home, and when they are, money can be made thanks to UT’s 4-2-1 SU and 6-1 ATS when unbeaten and hosting an SEC team. Additionally, playing on any undefeated home underdog that has scored 90 or more points across its last two games, provided it was a bowl team the prior season and is facing an opponent off a win is 23-10 ATS against opponents who scored 40 or fewer points in their previous game, and 14-3 ATS if the home dog has won the stats in its last two game by 440-plus yards.

Rating: 2 Units

Talk about a nose-diving outfit, check out the Bruins, who have come from producing 39 ppg ('22) to 26 ppg  ('23), to 18 ppg ('24).  They have revamped their offensive line, while attaining Tennessee QB Iamaleava.  So how are they fairing?  Try a 43-10 opening home loss to Utah, with 298-84 RY deficit.

CFB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Eagles bring a 0-4 ATS log in lined contests into this game when coming off a season-opening win, and we’ll back the Spartans to post a win-and-cover tonight. Finally, MSU head coach Jonathan Smith is 23-15 ATS when his team is seeking revenge, including 7-2 ATS when both teams are coming off a win, and 3-0 SUATS before Game Six of the season.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida is 1-4 as non-conference favorites of 14 or more, 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the American Conference, and 2-6 ATS in the second half of back-to-back home games. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS against the SEC in the last three years, 10-1 ATS in second games, and 8-1 ATS when an underdog of 17 or higher. This USF program may be rounding into the kind of shape they were back when Jim Leavitt was in charge. The Gators should be the class of the field here, but USF is 11-6 ATS against teams from Florida the last 12 years, including 7-1 ATS as a dog of 17 or more. 

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Iowa HC Ferentz is 26-19-1 ATS as the underdog when seeking vengeance. Iowa’s lone home loss was to ISU last year, and the Hawkeyes had a 13-point lead erased before losing on a late field goal.  In this Cy-Hawk Trophy series, Iowa is 4-0 ATS as the visitor to Jack Trice, plus 4-0 ATS in their first road game, and 6-1 ATS as dogs of six or fewer.  Iowa is also 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in road openers since 2012, including 4-0 SUATS the last four seasons. Finally, the visiting team in this series is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, including 6-0 outright when the Hawkeyes are the visitor. 

Rating: 3 Units

The Cavaliers carry the weight of three straight losses to NCSU, and this group of underdogs also carries a 10-3 ATS dog mark in this series, including 7-1 ATS when the Pack is batting .750 or greater. NC State lacks experience with three game win streaks against teams, but they’re a mere 1-5 ATS in those situations. Virginia has perhaps one of the ACC’s most dangerous weapons in WR Cam Ross, who’s in his seventh season of CFB and graduated from UConn in 2022. Ross, who played at JMU last year, accounted for 224 all-purpose yards against CCU last week, including a 100-yard TD kick return. Massive game for Virginia.

Rating: 2 Units

South Carolina is coming off a nine-win season under Shane Beamer and has one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC and a roster that looks ready to push for CFP contention. On the flip side, Virginia Tech Virginia Tech is still working through some struggles under Brent Pry, especially against non-conference Power Four teams. The Gamecocks have the clear edge in this one, especially at a season opener at home. Consider that playing on any college football team in its season opener if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points the previous season (South Carolina) are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS against foes that won four or fewer games last season. Take South Carolina to win and cover the spread. 

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Kalen DeBoer led Alabama to a 9-4 record last year. At most places, that’s worthy of a celebration, but not in Tuscaloosa. It marked the Tide’s worst season in 17 years. The culprit was losing four games outright as a favorite, the most for Alabama dating back to 2000. But here’s the silver lining: most of the offensive line and 13 defenders with 200+ snaps are back. DeBoer also reunites with his ace play-caller, Ryan Grubb, to crank up an offense that averaged just 28 PPG against SEC foes. FSU hired six new assistants, including OC Gus Malzahn and OL coach Herb Hand. In 2007, at Tulsa, Norvell, Malzahn, and Hand’s staff achieved an NCAA-record season with a 5,000-yard passer, three 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher – a glimpse of the potential this revamped Seminoles squad could unleash in 2025.  However, The Alabama Crimson Tide have won 23 season-opening games in a row. Florida State is 6-48 ATS in outright home losses since 1981. Additionally, playing on any college football team in its season opener if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points the previous season (Alabama) and has won 21 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are a perfect 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS when going against foes that won four or fewer games last season. 

Rating: 2 Units

No question that the Hoosiers were the top surprise in the '24 collegiate football realm, with just that , losing to just 1st ranked OhioSt & 2nd ranked Notre Dame, & that following a combined 9-27 record the previous 3 seasons. The Hoosiers became the only FBS team to improve its offensive and defensive stats over 100 yards last season. They are stacked with 16 returning starters and a No. 38 overall ranking in Returning Player Production, light years beyond Old Dominion’s No. 89 RPR ranking (No. 97 on offense).  

Rating: 3 Units

No. 1-ranked teams in these types of matchups are 5-0 ATS away, winning every contest outright! In addition, AP Preseason top-ranked teams are 40-5 SU in season-opening contests.  The Buckeyes must replace both of its coordinators, Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles, plus its offensive line coach. When looking at this one consider that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in season opening games, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 4 Unit Play of the Day

Vols have chewed up and spit out non-conference foes in regular-season games of late, going 12-0 SU and 9-0 ATS the previous three seasons, while outscoring the last five foes, 306-16!  Additionally, SEC teams are 17-2 SU in the Kickoff Classic while ACC teams are 3-15 outright. SEC teams are also 14-1 SU all-time against ACC teams in the Kickoff Classic by an average win margin of 16.1 points per game. Consider as well that College Football Playoff losers have gone 26-4 in season-opening games the following year by an average win margin of 24.3 points per game.

Rating: 2 Units

BU has 18 returning starters from a team that went 6-0 SUATS in the second half of the season, plus playing on any ’17 returning starter’ underdog in its first game of the season is 123-90-4 ATS overall including going 4-0 ATS overall last season and if these same teams managed to win 4 or more games last season, their ATS record improves to 71-41 (63.3%), including 16-4 ATS as a home dog (8-0 ATS since 2020).  Baylor is 13-2 in Waco openers and 3-0 SUATS as a home dog of four or fewer points during the first three games of the season. Yes, a BIG 12 home team coming off a winning record is an underdog at home against an SEC program that hasn’t had a winning record since 2020 and has four straight seven loss seasons. 

Rating: 3 Units

NC State’s Dave Doeren suffered his first losing season since 2019, thanks to the Pirates, and the long-time Wolfpack leader has a returning QB in CJ Bailey and more is expected from RB Hollywood Smothers. Doeren and his coaches have been a great pick coming off a losing season by going 16-9 SU and 15-9 ATS in years following. Rest assured, the Buccos have the Wolfpack’s attention after last year’s Bowl loss at 7.5 point favorites.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rainbow Warriors welcomes back 18 starters from last year’s five-win squad — plenty to build on for a coach whose teams have gone 15–7 ATS overall when playing at home. Standord HC Frank Reich, will be looking to right a Stanford team that has finished 3–9 in each of the last four years. Stanford has had it's share of issues including 20 player departures via the transfer portal and a head coach scandal that opened the door for Reich in late March. To clinch this selection consider that Hawaii is 11–2 ATS in season-opening games against FBS opponents, including 9–1 ATS when playing with revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

Consider that the underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS run in CFP title games, teams with a better win percentage are 3-0 ATS all-time in CFP championship games if they scored more than 24 points in the semifinal round match. In addition, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is 33-8 SU and 29-11 ATS in his career with the Irish, by an average margin of loss of 7 points per game ... with only three by double-digits. He is also 10-0 ATS against foes coming off an ATS win of nine or more points and 31-1 outright in games where the Irish have scored 24 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Only five teams have won a College Football Playoff game and lost to the spread. Those teams are 2-0 SUATS the following playoff game by an average winning margin of 43 points per game (Alabama 52, Ohio State 24; Georgia 65, TCU 7). Digging deeper, this marks only the second time in their previous 42 games – and the first time this season – that the Longhorns will be taking points over the last three years, both behind QB Quinn Ewers (who was initially recruited by Ryan Day before he transferred out) and both against Alabama when they won 31-24 (+7), and lost 19-20 (+21). Buckeyes’ boss Ryan Day brings a shaky 3-7 ATS career mark into this contest against foes coming off an outright win but ATS loss, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when not favored by double-digits. When push comes to shove, Texas has a national championship-caliber defense – some have said it’s one of the program’s best units ever. The Longhorns could win two more games if the team plays to its full potential.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. The only team to take down the Irish this season is the Mid-American Conference and Group of 5-member Northern Illinois, and the Huskies performed that feat in a thoroughly convincing 26-14 at Notre Dame Stadium when they outgained the Irish, 388-286, while dominating the Time of Possession, 34:38 to 25:22.  The bottom line is it’s difficult looking past Franklin’s continual collapses in big games, as his 1-14 outright record against Top five ranked teams attests.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flames hold the edge in 14 of 16 overall categories. Lopsided edges like these are the sort of stuff in which underdogs rise up and bite counterfeit favorites. Toss in the fact that Buffalo struggled mightily against fellow bowl teams this season, going 1-6 ITS while being out-gained by an average of -162 net yards per game. Conversely, Liberty took on four fellow bowl teams this season and won the stats with an average of +40 net yards per game. By our calculations, the wrong team is favored in this contest. While we don’t question the lines maker, we question his math. If you were to take the four wins of the eight wins the Bills captured against losing teams this season, you’d be left with a 4-4 squad. Look for the Flames to improve to 4-1 ATS against .666 or better foes here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Bobcats have won three of their last four games while the Mean Green have lost five of their last six games. North Texas won’t be as successful offensively because they rely heavily on their passing game, which is fifth in the country. Unfortunately for them, the Bobcats have one of the best pass defenses in the country and they also don’t give up a lot of yards on the ground, so expect them to keep North Texas’ offense in check. Additionally, Texas State boss G.J. Kinne is 11-4 SU and 8-5 ATS versus sub .600 teams. The Bobcats played bowl teams way better than North Texas did, going 5-1 ITS (In The Stats), and given the giant edge at the game’s most important position, seem poised to break scoreboard lights. 

Rating: 2 Units

Duke will get the full Ole Miss experience with Jackson Dart sticking around to QB the Rebels, and even Duke Coach Manny Diaz’s 11-3 ATS record as an underdog of 17 or fewer points may not help. Duke is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games, but Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in its last 17, while the SEC is 7-2 SUATS in their last nine versus the ACC. Mississippi has the nation’s #2 red zone offense and third-ranked red zone defense. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Irish made Indiana look like a rec league softball team against the ’27 Yankees. ND is 8-1 SU versus 2024 bowl teams and carries a 9-15-1 SU/10-15 ATS record in post-season games since 1995. Notre Dame has succeeded against the almighty SEC, going 5-0 ATS in their last five as a dog versus God’s conference (just ask them). We get it if you can’t imagine a college football playoff without Georgia. This is their fourth appearance, with two titles, and many believe Georgia was more than qualified to make it last year, too. UGA is 5-1 SUATS in their playoff history. Frankly, Georgia needed the bye more than any team after about 100 overtimes against Texas in the conference title game. Kirby Smart is clearly not on the golf course while the Bulldogs rest; he’s 18-3 SU and 12-9 ATS with rest, including 5-0 SUATS when a team comes off back-to-back SUATS wins. But Smart probably lost some shuteye when he learned venerable QB Carson Beck will miss this game with an elbow injury aggravated against the Longhorns, leaving Gunner Stockton to make the biggest start of his young career. The Fighting Irish have the edge in QB, and Georgia has the edge in playoff experience under a two-time national title coach. It comes down to whether Gunner Stockton lives up to the moment. 

Bowl Game of the Year

Bowl Game of the Year

The Buckeyes are 0-2 under Day vs. Oregon after winning the first nine matchups against the Ducks; however, Ryan is 3-0 ATS in games against foes with a better win percentage. It’s usually a good day for OSU to play unbeaten teams, going 13-7 SU, including 3-0 ATS in games when Ohio State is not unbeaten. The Buckeyes overcame a hostile crowd of Tennessee supporters and some of their fans to rout the SEC opponent to set up, oddly enough, a traditional Rose Bowl if Oregon was still in the Pac-12. Nike founder Phil Knight, the 12th man of the Ducks program, has spent his money wisely on everything from A to Z to get the Ducks to this moment, including a chance to be the first 16-0 team in college football history. Gabriel will get most of the attention, but Oregon RB Jordan James rushed for 1,253 yards and 15 TDs. Tez Johnson is Oregon’s #1 WR, hauling in 10 of Gabriel’s 28 TD tosses. Ohio State QB Will Howard rebounded nicely from the Michigan disaster with a world-class performance versus the Volunteers, and he’s publicly shared his willingness to get another shot at the Ducks, who beat the Bucks by one earlier this year. The game ended with Howard trying to lead a game-winning drive that fell short. You want to avoid falling short on something else: your money. Be warned that bowl teams coming off rest, like the Ducks, are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against unrested bowl teams. Finally, teams seeking revenge in bowl games featuring same conference rivals are 6-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

The Longhorns left the Big 12 this year but will run into a championship squad picked last by the brilliant pre-season prognosticators. UT is 8-16 ATS when favored versus .840 or greater B12 teams. Sark is 8-15-1 ATS as the favorite off a SUATS win when facing .500 or better opponents. Make ASU the bowl dog at your own risk; the Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS as the underdog of two or greater versus a .600 or better win percentage. Ranked opponents? No problem, the Pitchforks are 4-0 SUATS vs. ranked opponents in 2024, and .800 or greater double-digit bowl dogs off a SU underdog win are 5-1-1 ATS. ASU is the guy you want rolling the dice at the craps table, finishing 6-0 SUATS, and their defense even held four teams to season-low or 2nd low yardage this year ... winning four games outright as underdogs this season. UT Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been forced to look over his shoulder after returning from injury to see if Arch Manning is warming up, and Longhorn watchers will tell you Manning is more gifted.

Rating: 2 Units

Defense is a major strength for the Nittany Lions, who held six teams to season-low yardage and held foes to 213 points in the regular season. Boise gets a rap for being in the Mountain West, but in the only game they were a double-digit dog, they beat the rap in losing 37-34 to Oregon when the Ducks were 17.5-point favorites. Versus fellow bowl teams, the Broncos are 5-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) this season and are 7-2 ATS in the last nine when a dog of 10 or greater, and that includes a solid 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Mountain West teams generally get the Rodney Dangerfield treatment in bowl games but are 10-2 ATS when an 8-point or larger underdog. This game is loaded with subplots: Jeanty is coming off the 2,000-yard season against a sturdy PSU defense, Boise is trying to justify its place in the CFP (especially challenging after the eggs laid by SMU and Indiana), while Penn State’s Franklin needs a lightsaber to fend off his critics in not always Happy Valley. Franklin won’t get his hand chopped off if PSU loses, but he may need to form a support group with Ryan Day if the Lions fall short. We think this will be close. 

Rating: 3 Units (pick should be Baylor!!!)

There is no disputing Brian Kelly’s success in the transfer portal, and if he could field a team of his new guys for this bowl game, LSU would be rough to handle. But the BK Broiler is 6-9 ATS in bowl games including 1-5 ATS as the favorite of fewer than 15 points. Kelly may need the new blood to keep his office in Baton Rouge, as LSU hasn’t made the playoffs since his arrival. The pressure’s not quite so high in Waco, but HC Dave Aranda struggled the past two seasons with six- and three-win seasons before posting eight Ws (the same as LSU). Baylor is 4-2 SUATS in its last six bowl games, including 4-1 as the underdog. BU is also 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS off a home game against a team coming off a home game. Baylor also closed hotter than a pepper sprout (thanks, Johnny Cash), going on a 6-0 In the Stats and ATS tear at the checkered flag. Aranda came to Baylor from LSU, where he was the defensive coordinator. He and his staff will have to prepare for LSU’s No.1 QB, Garrett Nussmeier, who decided to stick around for the trip to Texas. He hasn’t thrown a pick since the Bama game on November 9th and has 26 TD passes. His counterpart, BU QB Sawyer Robertson, has been named a dark horse Heisman candidate for 2025 by 24/7 Sports. Robertson also has 26 TD tosses but just seven picks. LSU seems intent on flexing about its 2025 roster.  However, Baylor is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under Dave Aranda after scoring more than 36 points in its last game (beat Kansas 45-17) and that includes 5-0 ATS this season.

Rating: 3 Units

There is nothing we like than a quality underdog, and the Iowa Hawkeyes definitely fills the bill – one that has won 36 games over the past four years. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and are 6-1 ATS as a dog when both teams are coming off a win. Kirk Ferentz is 23-11-1 ATS when they have a lower win percentage and allow 18 or fewer points per game. They rank #131 in passing offense, so normally, you would expect the Hawkeyes to rely on star RB Kaleb Johnson to carry the rock. However, he has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play today, so freshman Kamari Moulton could be the best option for Ferentz. Mizzou will also miss their best player as WR Luther Burden III has opted out. Tigers’ head coach Eli Drinkwitz is only 2-7 ATS coming off consecutive wins when facing winning foes, and has been a dog in all three bowl games with the Tigers, including a 14-3 win over Ohio State in last year’s bowl. They are a small favorite this year, and we are looking for another low-scoring game that the quality dog will win. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

MAC bowlers coming off a SU loss as a favorite are 5-17 SU and 8-13-1 ATS, and that will put out the stop sign for us, despite a sparkling 7-1 ATS mark in bowl games since 2003, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Unfortunately, the bad news continues for the RedHawks is that MAC conference championship game losers are 6-14 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in bowl games. Add to that the fact that QB Brent Gabbert will be without his two 800-yard receivers, with Javon Tracy heading to Minnesota and Reggie Virgil moving on to Texas Tech. On the flip side, Colorado State is riding a recent 7-1-1 ATS win skein and is 7-2 ATS versus winning foes, including 2-0 this season. 

Rating: 2 Units

Head coach Matt Campbell is 17-8 ATS as a dog coming off a loss, while his Clones are 3-0 ATS in bowl games with a .666-or-higher win percentage. They are also 5-2 ATS as a bowl dog when they average under 23 PPG. They have the only pair of receivers in the nation who rolled up 1,000 yards through the air in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, while QB Rocco Becht has thrown a TD pass in 17 straight games. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are playing in this game with frowns on their faces after getting left out of the CFP by losing 2 of their last three games. As will most of Mario Cristobal’s troops, QB Cam Ward will play, and Miami’s explosive attack is 8-0 ITS (In The Stats) versus other bowl teams this season. However, ACC bowl teams are 2-10 ATS against opponents coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Cristobal is also 2-12 ATS versus a foe coming off SU loss as a favorite (0-6 ATS against a non-conference foe). Both teams were in the Top 10 this season at one point, but a mid-season swoon for the Cyclones and the late collapse by the Canes have them meeting in Orlando today. Keep in mind that Big 12 conference champion game losers are 3-0 SUATS in their last three bowl games, while Miami is just 2-12 SUATS in their last fourteen bowl games since 2005, With their hearts probably not completely in it today, we see the Canes dropping to 2-13.

Rating: 2 Units

Louisiana is 19-8 ATS as a dog when they have a better win percentage, but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and a miserable 2-21 SU overall versus Big 12 opposition. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, have not been much better in bowl action, going 4-8 ATS in their last twelve bowl games (2-7 ATS as a favorite). They have gone 3-0 against Sun Belt opponents but just 0-3 ATS in those games. The Frogs are 3-0 SUATS in their last three games of the season this year, with wins over Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati behind QB Josh Hoover. The sophomore averaged 308 yards a game through the air – ranked 10th in the nation – and tossed 23 touchdowns. Consider that bowl teams on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are just 10-30 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Emmett Johnson pulled his name out of the portal and apparently will play. Be aware that Big Ten teams are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS versus the ACC in bowl games, but Rhule is 1-7 ATS with rest when coming off a loss. For BC, Thomas Castellanos has transferred to Florida State, so former FIU QB Grayson James will likely start to cap Bill O’Brien’s first season. The Eagles went 2-1 after O’Brien benched Castellanos and James took over, with the offense coming to life for wins over North Carolina and Pitt to close out the regular season. However, BC is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games (0-5 ATS against opponents off a loss), while bowl teams who won a bowl game as a dog of more than 6 points are 11-20 ATS versus foes off a loss. In addition, the Eagles are riding a 5-game winning streak, which keeps the price on this game in our comfort range.

Rating: 2 Units

North Carolina is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight bowl games. UNC is also 1-6 outright versus fellow bowl foes this season and 2-9 ATS from Game Seven out over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Huskies are 3-0 outright against fellow bowl foes this season. In addition, bowl dogs coming off a win who won 3 or fewer games last year are 33-12 ATS. Jim Mora is also 8-2 outright if he has a better record than his opponent. His team mopped up against weak sisters this campaign, going 6-1 SU versus sub -333 opponents this season to help them finish above .500 for the first time in 14 years. However, that was enough to land them this bowl berth in what, for all intents and purposes, amounts to a game in their backyard.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Remember that SEC bowl favorites are 30-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents off a loss, but just 2-8 ATS in bowl games against foes off a SU loss. On the flip side, the 6-6 Trojans were also a major disappointment this season, and Lincoln Riley needs a win here to avoid his first losing season as a head coach. QB Miller Moss was benched mid-season, and Riley will get a good look at Jayden Maiava, who beat Nebraska and UCLA in November. Finally, the good news is that 6-6 bowl teams shine against foes coming off consecutive SUATS losses and are ready to rumble in the post-season. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6-6 bowl teams coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 24-10 ATS, including 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or fewer PPG.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sooners have faced military teams on three different occasions this century. They were favored by 17, 17.5, and 28 points in each contest. Again, they were real Boomer Sooner teams, unlike the dollops they became in the past three seasons under Brent Venables. On the other hand, Navy has elevated itself under second-year head coach Brian Newberry as he has them bowling again for the first time since 2019. They know Oklahoma hasn’t seen an option attack like this since the Sooners edged Army, 28-21, as -28.5-point chalk in 2018. The Middies are the current Commander-in-Chief’s crew, and our database reminds us that these CIC champs are 18-3 ATS in bowl games when they surrender fewer than 22.5 points per game. 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s reassuring to know that MAC teams are 15-10-1 ATS against Sun Belt foes in bowl games, but it’s even better to learn that BGSU is 5-0 ATS versus Sun Belt foes not coming off a double-digit loss. The Red Wolves have not fared well in outings against superior teams, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS against winning squads this season and 0-5 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers – with an average stat loss of -178 yards per game. We prefer Bowling Green’s 13-2 ATS run in its last fifteen games versus sub-.600 opposition.

Rating: 2 Units

Outside of New Jersey, Rutgers football has been all but invisible since joining the Big Ten in 2014, currently standing 47-85 overall, while Kansas State is a household word when it comes to college football. Wildcats’ head coach, Chris Kleiman, has been a comfortable fit for the program. This season’s 8-4 effort boosted his record to 47-28 in six seasons, and K-State has gone bowling every year under Kleiman, except for the 2020 COVID campaign. A 1-3 slide to end this season is cause for concern, but Coach K is 15-3-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights did get off to a nice 4-0 start in 2024, but a 3-5 finish dropped them into this low-profile bowl game. While Big Ten dogs are 17-9 ATS vs. Big 12 opponents in bowl games, Rutgers is dragging a 2-10 ATS ball and chain when coming off a conference road game. As with any bowl you choose to play this season, always check the list of player and coach opt-outs prior to the game. In these situations, we seldom get behind the chalk, but K-State’s pedigree should rise to the top here. Lay the points

Rating: 2 Units

Among those likely out will be wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, Pitt’s leading pass catcher, who has declared for the 2025 NFL Draft, and backup quarterback Nate Yarnell, who is in the transfer portal. Toledo took a similar hit and will be missing Dequan Finn, quarterback, who transferred to Baylor. All things considered, we’ll fade a Pitt team that stands 8-15 SUATS in bowl games, including 2-7 ATS as chalk. And let’s face it: the ACC has done nothing so far to improve its miserable 2-10 ATS curse versus an opponent coming off SU loss as a favorite. With the dog sitting 5-0 ATS in the last six Rockets bowl games, it’s déjà vu all over again.

Rating: 2 Units

Expect the unexpected when the Bulls of South Florida lace 'em up, with this year a prime example, turning a 2-4 start, into a 6-6 record. They've posted 48, 49, 44, 59, & 63 points this season, while failing to top 16 points on 5 occasions. Ditto a "D",which, was blistered for 52, 50, 45 points in a 2-5 start, but improved to 27.2 ppg in their final 6 games (4-2), with RB Joiner a fabulous 9.4 yards per rush in USF's wins. The Spartans of San Jose State are down a notch from last year, as would be expected, with just 7 returning starters, while winding up the season with but 2 covers over their final 8 outings, compared to their 6-1 ATS run entering last year's Hawaii (24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina, as a 7½ point favorites . SJS has lost its L3 bowls by 28, 17½, & 17½ points.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU is 2-4 SUATS in the post-season since 2019, and after fattening up on too many portions of Purdue burgers and French-fried Spartans, dealing with the tougher SEC has yielded a 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS record versus the Self Love Conference since 1990. The Buckeyes also nurse one hella hangover after losing to Michigan, going 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS after an outright beating from the Wolverines. Tennessee has also had plenty of years leading their fans on, only to crush them with some bitter defeat and an October loss to Arkansas, which looked like the dagger. The Vols went 6-1 down the stretch with a rugged defense that gave up only 167 points all season. Tennessee will only be as good as RB Dylan Sampson, who crossed the 100-yard mark in 10 games, scoring 22 times. The Vols bring in some numbers that will no doubt raise hackles in the Desert … including 8-1 SUATS vs. .750 or greater against non-conference teams since 2016, 6-1 SU, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven bowl games and vs the Big 10, 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

You can argue there’s no more experienced playoffs head coach than Dabo Swinney, and his record as an underdog is more five-star than any recruits he’s brought in lately, 12-2 ATS as a dog of five or more, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. The Dabster is also 11-5 SUATS in the last 16 bowl games, 8-2 ATS when the underdog, and 6-1 ATS as the underdog when coming off a win. Want more? Dabo is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS versus a team off a SU favorite loss. 

Rating: 2 Units

Lions may be strong enough in this one, thanks to an excellent defense that held opponents to season-low yardage five times. Franklin is 8-1 SU and 5-3 ATS vs the ACC and 13-28 SU vs Top 25 opponents, but most of those are from the Big 10. The B1G Boys are rough on the ACC in the bowl season, owning an impressive 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS mark, and this regular season, the conference dominated the Atlantic Coast rivals going 11-1 In the Stats and 7-1 In the Stats vs. the ACC bowl reps. SMU averaged 38.5 PPG, 6th best in the nation, but even after getting lit up by Oregon, Penn State’s defense is 8th in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and 6th in yards allowed/game at 282.1. The good news for Franklin is SMU doesn’t fall in his 1-15 vs. Top 5 programs record, a record that had Happy Valley fans yelling at him during the Ohio State loss. 

CFB Playoff Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Fighting Irish have a surprising 0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995, an even weirder 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 teams. The IU numbers are sweeter than a Hoosier Sugar Cream Pie, with Cignetti 30-6 all time vs. FBS and 6-1 SUATS vs teams .750 or greater and 5-1 ATS coming off a win over 48 plus points. IU has lived off the brilliant play of Manning Award fi nalist Kurtis Rourke (27 TD 4 INT and his top target Elijah Sarret, who rode along to Bloomington with Cignetti from James Madison. The Irish turn to veteran QB Riley Leonard (16 passing TDs and 14 rushing) plus the strong legs of Jeremiyah Love, who has scored in each game this season. The victory formula is simple: the winner of the run game vs. run defense battle should prevail. Consider that Bowl dogs who score 56 or more in their final regular season game are 5-1 SUATS since 1990, including 5-0 SUATS if they gave up 27 points or fewer on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gators are also 0-3 ATS in the last three bowl games, and they were a 7-point or greater favorite in and against bowling teams this year; the Boys from Old Florida were 2-5 SU and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats). The almighty SEC is also 1-3 vs the AAC in bowl games (we will be checking under the hoods of our car before starting it after printing that). In the meantime, Tulane HC Jon Sumrall spurned North Carolina’s advances and signed a contract extension to stay in New Orleans, but the same cannot be said for highly-touted QB Darian Mensah, who fl ed to Duke this week. Look for Tulane to lean heavily on RB Makhi Hughes, who ran for 1,372 yards with 15 scores. Florida QB D.J. Lagway was the fan favorite in Gainesville from the first game on, and after his counterpart Graham Mertz tore his knee, Lagway began to show the form that has everyone excited for next year as he appears to be avoiding the magnetic transfer portal. He finished 5-1 as a starter after a 31-11 win over Tallahassee Community College. But Lagway will be running into a quality Green Wave defense that held four teams to season-low yardage in a season of bookends. Tulane started 1-2 and finished 0-2, but the middle was sweeter than the center of a Reese’s Cup, 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. Assuming there are no more dramatic transfers out of Tulane, consider that playing against any college bowl double-digit favorite coming off a SU victory and 3 ATS wins if they have won outright in 17 or fewer of their last 22 games.is 11-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Unsurprisingly, the 61-year-old Rich Rod has done a superb job at the school, going 26-10 and 18-3 in league play. The Gamecocks lead the country in rushing plays of 10-plus yards with 102 and are eighth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage (75.6). On the negative side, the Gamecocks have allowed more than 400 yards in four of their last six games. We’ll toss in the fact that CUSA bowl dogs off a win are 2-7 ATS versus MAC opponents, and Rodriguez is 2-9-1 ATS in bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hilltoppers are 14-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 13 points versus Fun-in-the-Sun Belters. They are also 38-11-2 ATS as a dog of 9 or fewer points, including 17-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Add to these numbers a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record as a bowler with a .600-or-greater win percentage and an 11-2  ATS mark if coming off a loss and going against a foe also coming off a loss. Finally, there is a pesky 3-1-1 ATS record as a bowler if they are allowing fewer than 25.5 PPG. The bottom line is that there is too much stick-to-itiveness to overlook here. On the James Madison side, the Dukes sat at 8-2 late in the season and were closing in on a visit to the Sun Belt Championship game, but finished with losses to Appalachian State and Marshall (35-33 in double-overtime) to fall short of that goal. Consider that bowl favorites of six or more points in this role are 1-7 ATS. Also, Sun Belt bowl favorites are 15-25 ATS in bowl games since 2019, including 2-8 ATS when coming off a loss. The numbers say go with the Toppers.

Rating: 2 Units

Mountaineers will be playing for an interim head coach in Chad Scott, as Neal Brown was fired on Sunday, one day after the Hillbillies were stomped, 52-15, to finish the season at 6-6. Brown lost four of his last seven games by double-digits, with three defeats coming in Morgantown. He went 37-35 in six seasons and took his Mountaineers to 4 bowl games, but was unable to win more than six games in a season just once. WVU is also 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine bowl games, while Big 12 bowlers are just 1-3 SUATS versus AAC opponents. Conversely, Memphis earned a No. 25 ranking in the AP Poll and College Football Playoff standings this week after pulling off a 34-24 road upset over Tulane on Thanksgiving, collecting back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. This is the Tigers’ second straight year squaring off against Big 12 competition in the postseason. Last December, Memphis upended Iowa State 36-26 on its home fi eld at the Liberty Bowl and are 3-0 SUATS in bowls under Silverfield. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, were 0-6 SUATS versus fellow bowl teams this season and lost the stats battle in six of their last seven games to conclude the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cadets are just 1-6-1 ATS as favorites of two or more points in this series when the Mids are carrying the revenge chip. The Swabbies have also been 14-6-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a military loss, including 9-2-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 20 points. While it’s true that both teams throw the ball much more than they did a few years ago, don’t read too much into it. In the last ten meetings, neither team has scored more than 21 points, so you may want to have a few NoDoz tablets on hand if you’re looking to make it all the way to the end without missing some late heroics. Yes, Army has won six of the last eight contests on the scoreboard, but laying a touchdown to a potent Navy squad averaging 32.8 PPG is not how we want to approach such a fierce rivalry. Instead, we’ll look for Navy to load up the missile launchers and fire away.  Finally, Military teams coming off an outright win as a dog are 7-0 ATS against fellow military teams since 2001. 

Rating: 3 Units

Undefeated favorites of six or fewer points on neutral fields are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in conference title games since 2013 when facing foes with at least one loss on the season. Penn St HC Franklin is 42-15 SU and 34-21-2 ATS in conference games when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS from Game Eleven out – including 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS from Game Twelve out. Meanwhile, the Ducks will have to overcome the fate of past single-digit favorites in Big Ten championships, who have gone 3-4 outright and 1-6 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas backers won’t be cashing tickets, calling out the fact that UT head coach Steve Sarkisian is 7-11-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win in his career when favored against winning foes, including 0-5-1 ATS versus foes that scored more than 40 points in their previous game. Then there’s Georgia head coach Kirby Smart’s super-sharp 5-0 ATS record as a dog of fewer than five points. Additionally, the Georgia Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under head coach Kirby Smart when not favored by double-digits if they allowed more than 30 points in their previous game. Finally, teams seeking same season revenge in conference title games are just 20-31 SUATS when facing foes coming off an ATS loss, including 0-4 SUATS against foes that won twelve or more games the previous season.

Conference Championship Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Defending MAC champs are 1-6 ATS and 1-7 SU when trying to repeat. Since 2006, Miami is 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 ATS when Ohio brings a .666-win percentage into the game. Additionally, MAC title dogs are 16-6-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS vs. teams coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Finally, MAC dogs are 16-6-3 in conference championship games, including 8-1-1 ATS if they surrendered 21 or fewer points in their last game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Black Knights are 10-1 ‘In The Stats’ this season, winning the yardage by an average of +106 net yards per game. And when it comes to AAC title games, home teams are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, including 3-0 SUATS when not coming off a double-digit win.  Jeff Monken, wraps up his 11th year in West Point after clinching a perfect 8-0 AAC record in the regular season. Finally, teams in conference championship games, coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite of more than -11 points, are 1-7-1 ATS since 2005, including 0-5 ATS with a win percentage of .750 or less.

Rating: 2 Units

Since the history of College Conference Championship Games began in 1992, there have been a total of four games that were right-back revenge from a season-ending loss, and the avenging teams have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. Those are good numbers, but not as good as the Gamecocks’ 4-0 SUATS record at home when coming off a loss in their two seasons in the FBS, outscoring foes 141-41 in those same games. Meanwhile, the Toppers are just 4-7 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog, including 0-5 ATS if the upset win came against a conference foe. 

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Marshall is only 3-7 ITS (In The Stats) this campaign, while JMU is 9-2 ITS. Hmm, something looks off here. Meanwhile, Jimmy is plenty mad just about now, sporting the better numbers while looking up at Marshall in the Sun Belt standings. While they can’t make it to the title game, they can get a large measure of revenge in their Last Home Game from a 26-2 loss they suffered here as double-digit chalk when the Herd last visited in 2022. The Mad Men are 2-0 SUATS in regular season finales since joining the FBS, winning by an average margin of 41 points per game. FYI: Last season, they dropped their LHG, 26-23, as a double-digit favorite to Appalachian State. They won’t make the same mistake this year since Marshall is 2-10 SUATS in the second of consecutive away games, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS versus sub .750 foes

Rating: 3 Units

It’s not good news for the Longhorns. Not only is Bevo a ghastly 2-11 ATS as a favorite of 21 or fewer points versus SEC opponents, but Steve Sarkisian’s bunch is just 1-4 ATS in their most recent five tries as conference road chalk. Not so for the Aggies, who are 7-2-1 ATS their last ten versus an .800 or better conference opponent and have cashed tickets in five of the last series showdowns. Hey, if any coach in America can rally his team after a crushing defeat, it’s A&M’s Mike Elko, and his squad hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season. Elko also chips in with a 6-2 ATS mark as a conference dog, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS away off a SU conference home win, including 0-6 ATS in the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

The last foe to tag the Ducks with a defeat was – you guessed it – the same Washington Huskies that are coming to Eugene. The Bad Dogs took the Ducks down two times last season, including a 34-31 win as a 10-point dog in the Pac-12 championship game. That loss kept Oregon from being one of the final four playoff teams last year, and U-Dub will likely pay the price here. Don’t be concerned about OU scoring a season-low 16 points in their win over Wisconsin, as Camp Randall Stadium is a snake den for many visiting teams. Consider Oregon’s 6-1 ATS record after failing to score 20 points in the previous game and its 8-3 ATS mark off a SU win of 3 or fewer points when facing a sub .700 foe. The Huskies limp into town with an awful 1-6-1 ATS ledger after a week of rest and a money-burning 2-11 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points. Folks, this is the best Oregon team we’ve seen since they ditched the ho-hum Green & Gold uniforms of old and hired the costume designer from “Flash Gordon” to put a futuristic spin on their duds. Washington is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Rating: 3 Units

Fan sentiment toward coach Kelly is not running high – especially with his choke-on-a-bone $61 million contract buyout likely ensuring his return next season. As for this evening’s showdown in Red Stick, Kelly stands 0-3 ATS as a career favorite of fewer than seven points in Last Home Game situations. Worse, his team enters on a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS run and is flatter than Louisiana roadkill. The Sooners only have momentum from the win over Bama, as this will be their first chance to register back-to-back victories since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. But compared to lifeless LSU, it’s enough for us considering that Oklahoma is 21-7 SUATS in regular season finales, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

CFB Mismatch of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Dame is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or fewer points, 1-5 ATS with single revenge, and 3-6 ATS in this series with a .900 or greater win percentage. Ugh. While USC  is 7-2 ATS in Last Home Games and 8-3-1 ATS as a dog in Last Home games, including 6-0 ATS with a sub .600 win percentage. Don’t forget about head coach Lincoln Riley, who stands 9-4-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0-1 ATS with a sub .700 win percentage. Consider that playing against Notre Dame in its final game of the regular season if they own a .900 or greater win percentage and they are facing a foe who allows fewer then 22 PPG is 6-0 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Boston College is looking to make amends for last year’s 24- 16 loss while sporting a 22-10 ATS record when seeking revenge for a conference loss. That spread record (since 2016) includes a 5-0 ATS mark against foes coming off a pair of losses. Pitt, meanwhile, has lost four straight after a 7-0 start, getting crushed 37-9 by Louisville on Saturday, as the Cardinals knocked Panther QB Eli Holstein out of the game in the first quarter and eventually outgained Pitt, 509-365. It’s all part of a 1-7 nosedive by these Cats in their final five games of the season for the past two seasons.

Rating: 2 Units

Be careful here, folks. Tennessee is 1-5 versus conference revenge in the last two seasons and 1-4 as road favorites of more than six points. The cuffs and collars just don’t match. Besides, Vandy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when they have a winning record (including 3-1 SUATS) and 4-1 against the number when playing an SEC foe with a better-than .800 win percentage. We love how well Vandy teams have gone toe-to-toe with the Vols. Head coach Clark Lea has this program moving in the right direction – the Commodores won just nine games in the previous four seasons, and now they are guaranteed to finally complete the regular season at or above the .500 mark in this campaign.

Rating: 3 Units

VPI head coach Brent Pry is just 1-7 SUATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. On the flip side, the Devils will be hitting the alleys for the third straight season, this time under veteran first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Yes, we get the fact that the Dukies are a mind-blowing 2-32 outright in Game Eleven of the season, but they are also 7-2 ATS as Game Eleven home dogs when seeking revenge (lost 47-45 and 38-35 in the past two seasons to the Heels). With that, we need to consider that Duke head coach Manny Diaz is 9-2 ATS as a dog of 11 or fewer points, including 5-0 ATS versus sub .600 opponents.

Big-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

After a puzzling 27-3 loss to Arizona, the 4-4 Cougars will need to pull off a pair of wins in their final two games to take first-year head coach Willie Fritz to a bowl game – a win here and next week at BYU. This will be Houston’s last game at TDECU Stadium, and that’s a plus for the Cats, who are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in home finales, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when they surrender fewer than 24 points per game. The real trouble for the Bears is a defense that has allowed 36 points per game in its last seven games. Now, coming off four consecutive revenge wins in a row, we need to consider that playing against any college football team from Game Ten out coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater opponent is 18-37-2 ATS in this role. When dressed as favorites of 8 or fewer points, they slip to 9-27-1 ATS, including 1-12 ATS if they won three or fewer games last season.

Rating: 3 Units

The Red Raiders clinched a bowl pass two games ago and promptly went into the toilet bowl with a 41-27 loss to Colorado the next week. They arrive here with a week of rest to right themselves at 10-2 ATS games when coming off a double-digit loss and 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog. While the Cowboys do own a nifty 9-2 ATS ledger as a home dog, all we need to do is look at their 500-yard defense that helped put them behind a stats log of -116 net yards per game. Look for Tech to get back on track today against a dog with zero bite.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ll gladly take the points with a BYU squad that has cashed three straight tickets in this series and catches the Sun Devils with blood rival Arizona waiting on deck. ASU can knock the Mormons out of second place in the Big 12 race with a win, but we think that’s just too large of a leap for the Pitch Forks especially considering that playing on any CFB dog who started the season 7-0 or greater coming off its initial loss of the year if they are facing a foe that won 7 or fewer games last season who won its previous game by fewer than 40 points is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Cougars start a new win streak.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

A bunch of good numbers suggests UK might get the money even if they don’t win on the scoreboard. The Cats are 6-0 ATS in LRG (Last Road Games), 6-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points, and 6-2 ATS away versus an .850 or better league foe. Meanwhile, hidden within the layers of the Longhorns’ 9-1 record is the troubling fact that head coach Steve Sarkisian is just 10-16-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins and facing foes who allow fewer than 24 points per game, including 5-12-1 ATS from Game Six out. The line is hovering around three TDs at the moment, but if you’re still having second thoughts about backing the 4-6 Wildcats with their backs to the bowl wall, then consider that Kentucky is 18-5 outright and 18-4 ATS when coming off a non-conference home game, including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS away.

Rating: 2 Units

The Buckeyes are 29-0 SU in the last twenty-nine games of this series – that is simply unbelievable!! They are also 10-1 ATS at home versus conference opponents with rest but only 2-5 ATS as Big Ten favorites of 15 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti got a $64 million contract on his week off. Aside from history, the knock is that IU has played a soft slate, with nary a win against a Top 25 team this season. Still, it’s rare to find a 10-0 underdog catching this many points. In fact, there have been 13 underdogs with a 10-0 record in Game Eleven of the season. They are 8-5 ATS overall, including 1-0 ATS when taking more than 12 points (Miami, Fla lost 18-16 at Arkansas in 1988 as a 16-point dog). Cignetti is also 10-1 ATS away in conference games, plus 21-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when undefeated with the better record. 

Rating: 3 Units

Tech has been a wreck when coming off a game like their previous encounter with Miami, going 2-9 ATS as the favorite when they were a dog in the last game. Worse, beating Miami seems to send Ga. Tech into a stupor, going 0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a win over the Hurricanes. The Wolfpack are among the many 5-5 teams needing that one more win for a bowl game, and they have a 9-2 ATS mark in ACC games vs. a team coming off an ACC tilt. Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. Finally, NCSU is 24-5 ATS with rest in conference play since 1997, and that includes a hefty 11-1 SUATS, versus .600 or worse opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

While a bowl bid will take a borderline miracle – Kansas hasn’t taken four conference games in a row since 2007. Can you spell u-p-s-e-t? Meanwhile, speaking of miracles, it was a wild finish for the miraculous Mormons in the Holy War, as the Cougars used a dramatic defensive holding penalty to get a second chance and defeat the Utes on a field goal with three seconds to play. It was the second time in the last three games that BYU (now ranked #8) won in the final ten seconds. However, the miracles may have come to an end with the visit from the Jayhawks today. BYU is 3-8 ATS at home with revenge, and with the pressure mounting with each passing game for the Cougs, look to the fact that College football teams that have remained unbeaten begin to feel the pressure as the season wears on. This is especially true in the game after escaping with a scant one-point victory. It’s confirmed that these ‘close shave’ artists are just 19-15 SU and 11-21 ATS in the game after that when facing conference opponents. Worse, these escape artists dip to 6-11 SU and 2-13 ATS when they own a rushing attack that averages fewer than 188 rushing yards per game.

Rating: 2 Units

Wake Forest lost the Friday night track meet to Cal last week, 46-36, when they were outgained 500-386 and turned the ball over four times. However, they are 10-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss and facing a foe coming off a SUATS win, and previously registered a pair of hard-fought wins over UConn and Stanford behind former Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier. In addition, at 4-5 / 2-3 on the season, the Demon Deacons need to pick up two wins in their final three games to go bowling, and they’ll come hard and get one here. Meanwhile, the Heels own a scary 1-6 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in this series when they come off a double-digit win. UNC head coach Mack Brown struggles in games against foes coming off an outright loss as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS when his troops are coming off consecutive wins, including 0-9 ATS when favored by 6 or more points.  Finally the Tar Heels are a horrid 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS as double-digit chalk.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is 44-11 outright at home in his career, including 27-2 in games in which his team is surrendering fewer than 17.5 PPG. And when it comes to being cast in the role of big home underdog, Bucky has cashed in four of the last five tries when getting 14 or fewer points in Madison. Hopefully, someone with the Oregon contingent will see fit to mention the passing of the great John Robinson, who was a player and coach for the Ducks before moving on to USC and the Los Angeles Rams. With the Ducks eyeing up a double-revenge affair next week against the Huskies, we expect to see some feathers ruffled before they escape tonight. If you need more, there is always the fact that playing against any 10-0 CFB favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .555 or greater is 21-3 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

First, the Eagles have burned the money of late when taking on an .800 or greater conference opponent, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries. Second and most disturbing is the program’s sudden decline in cashing tickets as an ACC dog away from Chestnut Hill. Normally reliable in that role, the Eagles have done a U-turn into some road fog, going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when taking points on the conference road. Ugh. The Mustangs get lucky this afternoon in Dallas, as it marks Game Number Ten on their schedule, where they’ve gone 3-0 SUATS the last three years by an average win margin of 23 points per game. The margin here isn’t a problem, either, with the Ponies now 7-1 ATS as home chalk of 13 or more points. And we didn’t even mention that SMU was resting up last week while the Eagles were engaged in hand-to-hand combat with Syracuse. Mustangs’ head coach Brett Lashlee won’t let this opportunity slip away. 

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia is off to its best season under third-year head coach Tony Elliott and shows up in South Bend with a profitable 5-1 ATS record of late as dogs of 17 or more points. Bad timing plagues the Cavaliers here, though, as UVA is off a huge upset win over previously unbeaten Pitt last week, and they’re a crash-and-burn 1-8 ATS after facing the Panthers. We know the Irish have a date with possibly unbeaten Army next week, but they’ve managed to go 6-1 ATS before battling the Black Knights. They’re also 4-0 ATS of late versus the Wahoos and 14-2 ATS when coming off a home favorite win. With the Dame resting in the Top Ten in the current Playoff Poll, they move forward today with another win and cover against ACC adversaries.