Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota QB Sam Darnold after being roughed up by the Lions last week is only 12-22-2 ATS overall away in the NFL. Included inside those numbers is a 0-7 ATS ledger when coming off a SUATS loss against foes coming off a loss. He has also never taken a snap in the NFL postseason. QB Matthew Stafford is 4-4 SUATS playoffs and 4-0 ATS in his career as a home dog versus foes off a double-digit loss. He is also 2-0 SUATS with the Rams in this series. That figures to work well with head coach Sean McVay’s 7-4 outright record in the playoffs. Key Stat: Since Week 8, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua playing every week, they’re 8-3 with wins over the Vikings and Bills. More significant Key Stat: The Vikings are 14-0 outright and 10-2-2 ATS this season when they hold opponents to fewer than 30 points and 0-3 when they don’t. The Rams know their ‘magic number’.

Rating: 2 Units

Green Bay paid a heavy toll in last week’s stunning loss to the double-digit underdog Bears. Not only would a win have moved the Pack up to the No. 6 seed, but QB Jordan Love left the game with an elbow injury, and star WR Christian Watson suffered a non-contact season-ending knee injury. Thus, they limp into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak with more question marks than the Riddler. In addition, Green Bay was 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against foes with a win percentage greater than .615 this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills were 2-3 against teams that have reached the playoffs, allowing 108 more yards per game against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams. Buffalo’s defense also allowed 33 points a contest vs. playoff teams, the fourth-most all-time by a playoff team. The only teams in 2024 to allow more points per game vs. current playoff teams were the Patriots, Titans, and the Bengals – and they’re all on vacation. And it should be noted that Denver led the NFL in quarterback sacks with 63 this season. You can’t fade Sean Payton’s 40-25-2 ATS career dog log.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chargers bring the No. 1 overall-ranked scoring defense into this contest. The Bolts are also one of four teams, along with the Broncos, Commanders, and Vikings, that qualified for the playoffs after missing out last season. Charger HC, Jim Harbaugh, is 0-2-1 ATS in NFL playoff games against sub .700 foes while NFL playoff home dogs a sterling 24-10-1 ATS in their first postseason game. Additionally, playing on any NFL home dog (Houston) in the playoffs if they lost their previous home game outright and they were not a dog of six or more points in their last game is 12-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Only five teams have won a College Football Playoff game and lost to the spread. Those teams are 2-0 SUATS the following playoff game by an average winning margin of 43 points per game (Alabama 52, Ohio State 24; Georgia 65, TCU 7). Digging deeper, this marks only the second time in their previous 42 games – and the first time this season – that the Longhorns will be taking points over the last three years, both behind QB Quinn Ewers (who was initially recruited by Ryan Day before he transferred out) and both against Alabama when they won 31-24 (+7), and lost 19-20 (+21). Buckeyes’ boss Ryan Day brings a shaky 3-7 ATS career mark into this contest against foes coming off an outright win but ATS loss, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when not favored by double-digits. When push comes to shove, Texas has a national championship-caliber defense – some have said it’s one of the program’s best units ever. The Longhorns could win two more games if the team plays to its full potential.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider this: Since the NFL implemented the playoff seeding system in 1975, the No. 1 seed has made it to the Super Bowl 26 times, with the NFC No. 1 seeds winning 16 of those and the AFC No. 1 seeds winning 10 times. The No. 5 seed has made it to the Super Bowl three times. We know the Lions are 8-0 ATS in this series and 9-0-1 ATS at home off back-to-back road games. Detroit is also a jaw-dropping 14-2 ATS against .700 or greater opposition. Conversely, the Vikes are just 1-6-1 ATS after hosting a division foe and 2-9 ATS when seeking quadruple revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Backup Carson Wentz will make his first start for Kansas City today. He is 9-5 SUATS in his NFL career, starting behind .800 or great teams, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. This is the highest line Denver has had to hurdle in this series since 2014, when they laid 13-points at home in a game they won but failed to cover. KC has been the favorite in the last 13 games in this series, making them a fully qualified DIA play (Dominating Dogs In Action Doing It Again). Fianally, Kansas City is 14-4 outright and 16-2 ATS as a road dog since 2016, including 4-0 SUATS in division games.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

With the Rams having climbed the mountain and now breathing playoff air, and currently 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS at home against triple-revenging foes, we’re riding the Seahawks as they zero in on a 10-win season, which is what Los Angeles will have if they fall to Seattle today. With that, we’re all over the mad-as-hell triple-avenging division visitor with the better offense and defense. Finally, playing against any .500 or greater NFL team in its final game of the season if they are coming off three consecutive revenge wins is 9-1 ATS.

AFC East Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Most of Miami’s early lack of success is attributable to the loss of QB Tua Tagovailoa in the early portion of the campaign. The Tongan has pled well in division duke-outs with a 13-8 SU and 12-8-1 ATS career mark, including 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS versus losing division foes. He missed the team’s victory at Cleveland because of a hip injury, and he is questionable this week. This means Tyler “Snoop” Huntley may be making a fifth start for the Dolphins in 2024. The Jets can’t seem to get off the runway in this series, just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS since 2018. They are also just 2-10 ATS when coming off double-digit SUATS losses and 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen puppy roles. With the Miami’s 11-2 ATS as a favorite coming off a favorite role in their previous game, it’s time we say goodbye, Mr. Rodgers. Finally, Miami QB Tyler Huntley is 4-1 SUATS in his NFL career against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS away

Rating: 2 Units

The Flames hold the edge in 14 of 16 overall categories. Lopsided edges like these are the sort of stuff in which underdogs rise up and bite counterfeit favorites. Toss in the fact that Buffalo struggled mightily against fellow bowl teams this season, going 1-6 ITS while being out-gained by an average of -162 net yards per game. Conversely, Liberty took on four fellow bowl teams this season and won the stats with an average of +40 net yards per game. By our calculations, the wrong team is favored in this contest. While we don’t question the lines maker, we question his math. If you were to take the four wins of the eight wins the Bills captured against losing teams this season, you’d be left with a 4-4 squad. Look for the Flames to improve to 4-1 ATS against .666 or better foes here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Bobcats have won three of their last four games while the Mean Green have lost five of their last six games. North Texas won’t be as successful offensively because they rely heavily on their passing game, which is fifth in the country. Unfortunately for them, the Bobcats have one of the best pass defenses in the country and they also don’t give up a lot of yards on the ground, so expect them to keep North Texas’ offense in check. Additionally, Texas State boss G.J. Kinne is 11-4 SU and 8-5 ATS versus sub .600 teams. The Bobcats played bowl teams way better than North Texas did, going 5-1 ITS (In The Stats), and given the giant edge at the game’s most important position, seem poised to break scoreboard lights. 

Rating: 2 Units

Duke will get the full Ole Miss experience with Jackson Dart sticking around to QB the Rebels, and even Duke Coach Manny Diaz’s 11-3 ATS record as an underdog of 17 or fewer points may not help. Duke is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games, but Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in its last 17, while the SEC is 7-2 SUATS in their last nine versus the ACC. Mississippi has the nation’s #2 red zone offense and third-ranked red zone defense. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Longhorns left the Big 12 this year but will run into a championship squad picked last by the brilliant pre-season prognosticators. UT is 8-16 ATS when favored versus .840 or greater B12 teams. Sark is 8-15-1 ATS as the favorite off a SUATS win when facing .500 or better opponents. Make ASU the bowl dog at your own risk; the Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS as the underdog of two or greater versus a .600 or better win percentage. Ranked opponents? No problem, the Pitchforks are 4-0 SUATS vs. ranked opponents in 2024, and .800 or greater double-digit bowl dogs off a SU underdog win are 5-1-1 ATS. ASU is the guy you want rolling the dice at the craps table, finishing 6-0 SUATS, and their defense even held four teams to season-low or 2nd low yardage this year ... winning four games outright as underdogs this season. UT Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been forced to look over his shoulder after returning from injury to see if Arch Manning is warming up, and Longhorn watchers will tell you Manning is more gifted.

Rating: 2 Units

Defense is a major strength for the Nittany Lions, who held six teams to season-low yardage and held foes to 213 points in the regular season. Boise gets a rap for being in the Mountain West, but in the only game they were a double-digit dog, they beat the rap in losing 37-34 to Oregon when the Ducks were 17.5-point favorites. Versus fellow bowl teams, the Broncos are 5-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) this season and are 7-2 ATS in the last nine when a dog of 10 or greater, and that includes a solid 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Mountain West teams generally get the Rodney Dangerfield treatment in bowl games but are 10-2 ATS when an 8-point or larger underdog. This game is loaded with subplots: Jeanty is coming off the 2,000-yard season against a sturdy PSU defense, Boise is trying to justify its place in the CFP (especially challenging after the eggs laid by SMU and Indiana), while Penn State’s Franklin needs a lightsaber to fend off his critics in not always Happy Valley. Franklin won’t get his hand chopped off if PSU loses, but he may need to form a support group with Ryan Day if the Lions fall short. We think this will be close. 

Rating: 3 Units (pick should be Baylor!!!)

There is no disputing Brian Kelly’s success in the transfer portal, and if he could field a team of his new guys for this bowl game, LSU would be rough to handle. But the BK Broiler is 6-9 ATS in bowl games including 1-5 ATS as the favorite of fewer than 15 points. Kelly may need the new blood to keep his office in Baton Rouge, as LSU hasn’t made the playoffs since his arrival. The pressure’s not quite so high in Waco, but HC Dave Aranda struggled the past two seasons with six- and three-win seasons before posting eight Ws (the same as LSU). Baylor is 4-2 SUATS in its last six bowl games, including 4-1 as the underdog. BU is also 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS off a home game against a team coming off a home game. Baylor also closed hotter than a pepper sprout (thanks, Johnny Cash), going on a 6-0 In the Stats and ATS tear at the checkered flag. Aranda came to Baylor from LSU, where he was the defensive coordinator. He and his staff will have to prepare for LSU’s No.1 QB, Garrett Nussmeier, who decided to stick around for the trip to Texas. He hasn’t thrown a pick since the Bama game on November 9th and has 26 TD passes. His counterpart, BU QB Sawyer Robertson, has been named a dark horse Heisman candidate for 2025 by 24/7 Sports. Robertson also has 26 TD tosses but just seven picks. LSU seems intent on flexing about its 2025 roster.  However, Baylor is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under Dave Aranda after scoring more than 36 points in its last game (beat Kansas 45-17) and that includes 5-0 ATS this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The San Francisco 49ers are not only banged up, but they're not playing well, and they've scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers also have nothing to play for, with them bounced from playoff contention. The Detroit Lions are not only 13-2 SU, but they're 10-5 ATS, and they need to keep winning to have a shot at the top seed in the NFC. The Lions should also have even more motivation after losing to the 49ers in the playoffs, a game they believe they should have won. Give me the Lions by a touchdown.

Rating: 3 Units

There is nothing we like than a quality underdog, and the Iowa Hawkeyes definitely fills the bill – one that has won 36 games over the past four years. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and are 6-1 ATS as a dog when both teams are coming off a win. Kirk Ferentz is 23-11-1 ATS when they have a lower win percentage and allow 18 or fewer points per game. They rank #131 in passing offense, so normally, you would expect the Hawkeyes to rely on star RB Kaleb Johnson to carry the rock. However, he has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play today, so freshman Kamari Moulton could be the best option for Ferentz. Mizzou will also miss their best player as WR Luther Burden III has opted out. Tigers’ head coach Eli Drinkwitz is only 2-7 ATS coming off consecutive wins when facing winning foes, and has been a dog in all three bowl games with the Tigers, including a 14-3 win over Ohio State in last year’s bowl. They are a small favorite this year, and we are looking for another low-scoring game that the quality dog will win. Take the points.

Rating: 3 Units

If Green Bay beats Minnesota by three or more points today and then Chicago next week, they will earn a higher seed than the Vikings - should Minny fall to Detroit on the season’s final week. Keep in mind that the visiting team in this series is 3-0 ATS, and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after hosting a Monday Night game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points. And then there is the round robin with the Packers 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen and the Vikes 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen. 

Rating: 3 Units

With a little less than 10:00 to go in the 1st quarter, Jalen Hurts was concussed w/ the Eagles up 7-0 and driving on the Commanders. Despite scoring on that drive w/ Kenny Pickett, the Eagles never fully recovered from the loss of Hurts. Dallas has won 4 of 5 & with their only loss coming on that crazy blocked punt vs the Bengals on MNF. How amazing is Brandon Aubrey? He was 4/4 FG (58, 49, 58, 53) vs the Bucs. Micah Parsons tied for the 5th for fewest games with 50 career sacks (61).

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bucs hold a 57% chance of breaking through. That improves to 70% with a win here and 85% with a pair of season-ending victories. The good news is they have beat Carolina like a drum of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings while cashing eight of the previous eleven games as a division home favorite of five or more points. In addition, the Panthers are 0-5 SUATS in Game Sixteen of the season in the last five years. Finally, Carolina is 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS versus winning opponents behind QB Bryce Young, including 0-5 SUATS against opponents with an .800 or fewer win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rams in post-Bye week games are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS the past two regular seasons after enjoying a respite. So, with the Redbirds 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games and the Rams 8-1 ATS when seeking division revenge from a single loss, along with being 12-1 SUATS during the month of December behind QB Matthew Stafford, we’re left with only one real option here today, and it’s Ram call.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and final playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the AFC West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last five games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. Finally, the Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

MAC bowlers coming off a SU loss as a favorite are 5-17 SU and 8-13-1 ATS, and that will put out the stop sign for us, despite a sparkling 7-1 ATS mark in bowl games since 2003, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Unfortunately, the bad news continues for the RedHawks is that MAC conference championship game losers are 6-14 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in bowl games. Add to that the fact that QB Brent Gabbert will be without his two 800-yard receivers, with Javon Tracy heading to Minnesota and Reggie Virgil moving on to Texas Tech. On the flip side, Colorado State is riding a recent 7-1-1 ATS win skein and is 7-2 ATS versus winning foes, including 2-0 this season. 

Rating: 2 Units

Head coach Matt Campbell is 17-8 ATS as a dog coming off a loss, while his Clones are 3-0 ATS in bowl games with a .666-or-higher win percentage. They are also 5-2 ATS as a bowl dog when they average under 23 PPG. They have the only pair of receivers in the nation who rolled up 1,000 yards through the air in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, while QB Rocco Becht has thrown a TD pass in 17 straight games. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are playing in this game with frowns on their faces after getting left out of the CFP by losing 2 of their last three games. As will most of Mario Cristobal’s troops, QB Cam Ward will play, and Miami’s explosive attack is 8-0 ITS (In The Stats) versus other bowl teams this season. However, ACC bowl teams are 2-10 ATS against opponents coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Cristobal is also 2-12 ATS versus a foe coming off SU loss as a favorite (0-6 ATS against a non-conference foe). Both teams were in the Top 10 this season at one point, but a mid-season swoon for the Cyclones and the late collapse by the Canes have them meeting in Orlando today. Keep in mind that Big 12 conference champion game losers are 3-0 SUATS in their last three bowl games, while Miami is just 2-12 SUATS in their last fourteen bowl games since 2005, With their hearts probably not completely in it today, we see the Canes dropping to 2-13.

Rating: 2 Units

Louisiana is 19-8 ATS as a dog when they have a better win percentage, but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and a miserable 2-21 SU overall versus Big 12 opposition. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, have not been much better in bowl action, going 4-8 ATS in their last twelve bowl games (2-7 ATS as a favorite). They have gone 3-0 against Sun Belt opponents but just 0-3 ATS in those games. The Frogs are 3-0 SUATS in their last three games of the season this year, with wins over Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati behind QB Josh Hoover. The sophomore averaged 308 yards a game through the air – ranked 10th in the nation – and tossed 23 touchdowns. Consider that bowl teams on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are just 10-30 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Following a 1-5-1 ATS start to the season under new head coach Jerod Mayo, the Pats have come together enough to go 5-3 ATS in games since, allowing more than 400 yards just once. Today marks their first game in Foxborough since Dec 1. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series and are 6-2 ATS at home on Saturdays, which is a near mirror opposite of the Bolts’ 2-8 ATS record in their last ten games on Saturdays. The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS after scoring 34-plus points in their previous contest.  Finally, playing on any NFL home dog from Game 14 onward with a .250 or fewer win percentage if they won four or fewer games last season going against an opponent whose team net Yards Per Rush is not a positive is 16-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Emmett Johnson pulled his name out of the portal and apparently will play. Be aware that Big Ten teams are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS versus the ACC in bowl games, but Rhule is 1-7 ATS with rest when coming off a loss. For BC, Thomas Castellanos has transferred to Florida State, so former FIU QB Grayson James will likely start to cap Bill O’Brien’s first season. The Eagles went 2-1 after O’Brien benched Castellanos and James took over, with the offense coming to life for wins over North Carolina and Pitt to close out the regular season. However, BC is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games (0-5 ATS against opponents off a loss), while bowl teams who won a bowl game as a dog of more than 6 points are 11-20 ATS versus foes off a loss. In addition, the Eagles are riding a 5-game winning streak, which keeps the price on this game in our comfort range.

Rating: 2 Units

North Carolina is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight bowl games. UNC is also 1-6 outright versus fellow bowl foes this season and 2-9 ATS from Game Seven out over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Huskies are 3-0 outright against fellow bowl foes this season. In addition, bowl dogs coming off a win who won 3 or fewer games last year are 33-12 ATS. Jim Mora is also 8-2 outright if he has a better record than his opponent. His team mopped up against weak sisters this campaign, going 6-1 SU versus sub -333 opponents this season to help them finish above .500 for the first time in 14 years. However, that was enough to land them this bowl berth in what, for all intents and purposes, amounts to a game in their backyard.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Remember that SEC bowl favorites are 30-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents off a loss, but just 2-8 ATS in bowl games against foes off a SU loss. On the flip side, the 6-6 Trojans were also a major disappointment this season, and Lincoln Riley needs a win here to avoid his first losing season as a head coach. QB Miller Moss was benched mid-season, and Riley will get a good look at Jayden Maiava, who beat Nebraska and UCLA in November. Finally, the good news is that 6-6 bowl teams shine against foes coming off consecutive SUATS losses and are ready to rumble in the post-season. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6-6 bowl teams coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 24-10 ATS, including 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or fewer PPG.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sooners have faced military teams on three different occasions this century. They were favored by 17, 17.5, and 28 points in each contest. Again, they were real Boomer Sooner teams, unlike the dollops they became in the past three seasons under Brent Venables. On the other hand, Navy has elevated itself under second-year head coach Brian Newberry as he has them bowling again for the first time since 2019. They know Oklahoma hasn’t seen an option attack like this since the Sooners edged Army, 28-21, as -28.5-point chalk in 2018. The Middies are the current Commander-in-Chief’s crew, and our database reminds us that these CIC champs are 18-3 ATS in bowl games when they surrender fewer than 22.5 points per game. 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s reassuring to know that MAC teams are 15-10-1 ATS against Sun Belt foes in bowl games, but it’s even better to learn that BGSU is 5-0 ATS versus Sun Belt foes not coming off a double-digit loss. The Red Wolves have not fared well in outings against superior teams, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS against winning squads this season and 0-5 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers – with an average stat loss of -178 yards per game. We prefer Bowling Green’s 13-2 ATS run in its last fifteen games versus sub-.600 opposition.

Rating: 3 Units

The Seahawks currently have an 11% chance of crashing the party. That improves to 30% with a pair of season-ending victories. All they can do at this point is to beat whoever they line up against, and it starts with the hibernating Bears today. In truth, it’s more like comatose Chicago as they are immersed in a nine-game losing streak since their Bye week in late October, a result of having scored more than 20 points in only one contest since being hypnotized. On the other side of the field, Seattle checks in at 5-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. Consider as well, that NFL teams who faced the Detroit Lions in their previous game are 2-11-1 ATS this season, including 0-5-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Outside of New Jersey, Rutgers football has been all but invisible since joining the Big Ten in 2014, currently standing 47-85 overall, while Kansas State is a household word when it comes to college football. Wildcats’ head coach, Chris Kleiman, has been a comfortable fit for the program. This season’s 8-4 effort boosted his record to 47-28 in six seasons, and K-State has gone bowling every year under Kleiman, except for the 2020 COVID campaign. A 1-3 slide to end this season is cause for concern, but Coach K is 15-3-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights did get off to a nice 4-0 start in 2024, but a 3-5 finish dropped them into this low-profile bowl game. While Big Ten dogs are 17-9 ATS vs. Big 12 opponents in bowl games, Rutgers is dragging a 2-10 ATS ball and chain when coming off a conference road game. As with any bowl you choose to play this season, always check the list of player and coach opt-outs prior to the game. In these situations, we seldom get behind the chalk, but K-State’s pedigree should rise to the top here. Lay the points

Rating: 2 Units

Among those likely out will be wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, Pitt’s leading pass catcher, who has declared for the 2025 NFL Draft, and backup quarterback Nate Yarnell, who is in the transfer portal. Toledo took a similar hit and will be missing Dequan Finn, quarterback, who transferred to Baylor. All things considered, we’ll fade a Pitt team that stands 8-15 SUATS in bowl games, including 2-7 ATS as chalk. And let’s face it: the ACC has done nothing so far to improve its miserable 2-10 ATS curse versus an opponent coming off SU loss as a favorite. With the dog sitting 5-0 ATS in the last six Rockets bowl games, it’s déjà vu all over again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs enter at 1-4 ATS in weekday games when coming off a win, while the Steelers have not only cashed in each of their last five games against AFC West foes, but they are also 18-5-5 ATS as home dogs under Mike Tomlin, including 11-1-2 ATS from Game Eight out. The Burghers also enter today’s fray tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North. Still, they own the tie-breaker with the Ravens and are not anxious to give it up today, especially with the Black Birds set to kick off next against the Texans in the game following this.

Rating: 2 Units

Expect the unexpected when the Bulls of South Florida lace 'em up, with this year a prime example, turning a 2-4 start, into a 6-6 record. They've posted 48, 49, 44, 59, & 63 points this season, while failing to top 16 points on 5 occasions. Ditto a "D",which, was blistered for 52, 50, 45 points in a 2-5 start, but improved to 27.2 ppg in their final 6 games (4-2), with RB Joiner a fabulous 9.4 yards per rush in USF's wins. The Spartans of San Jose State are down a notch from last year, as would be expected, with just 7 returning starters, while winding up the season with but 2 covers over their final 8 outings, compared to their 6-1 ATS run entering last year's Hawaii (24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina, as a 7½ point favorites . SJS has lost its L3 bowls by 28, 17½, & 17½ points.

Rating: 2 Units

The 10-4 Cheeseheads are currently the NFC’s No. 6 seed in the NFL Playoff Picture. You also need to know that New Orleans has been 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games under the Monday Night lights and 0-4 SUATS against the NFC North in the past two seasons. Remember, the Packers’ sneaky-good defense has held four of its last eight foes to season-low yards.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite the answer for the Bills in the Motor City after going down in the City of Angels. Josh Allen (23/34, 362 pass yards) w/ 4 more TDs and zero turnovers vs possibly the best team in the NFC. Pats went 0 for 6 on 3rd down conversions vs the Cards & have lost 11+ in BB years for the 1st time since 1992-93. New England has two 4+ losing streaks this year & Drake Maye has 6 turnovers during this current 4 game streak. 

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

According to Seahawks’ head coach Mike MacDonald, all signs are positive for Smith heading into this pivotal matchup with the Vikings. If Seattle wins out, they will be the NFC West champions. Minnesota’s issue starts with the fact that they are 0-5 SUATS in Game Fifteen in the last five years. They are also 1-7 outright in the previous eight games in this series (3-5 outright) and 1-6 ATS after hosting a division game. On the flip side, Seattle counters at 9-2 ATS as a dog off a loss against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game Eleven out when off three straight home games if they are coming off a win and failed to beat the spread by 18 or more points is 35-9 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona has scored 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NFC South, while the Panthers have turned into pussycats against the AFC West at 1-4 ATS. Toss is Carolina’s 0-5 ATS log as non-division home dogs of four or fewer points, and you know where we’ll be today. Finally, Carolina is 2-16 ATS in outright losses as a non-division home dog against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Rematch of Thanksgiving Day when the Bears almost pulled off the shocker of the year. However, poor clock management did both Chicago & Matt Eberflus (fired) in. Despite giving up 48 pts to the Bills at home, the Lions have clinched consecutive playoff berths for the first time since 1993-95. Jared Goff threw for 494 yards vs Buffalo to go along with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions. Lions are 6-0 before taking on the Vikings.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We realize that having the Cowboys on deck for Philly isn’t as meaningful today as in years past (0-8-1 ATS before Dallas). But that cloud still rests above the Eagles, as in the three games away from Lincoln Financial Field against winning teams (projected playoff teams) this season, Philadelphia is 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) by an average of -117 net yards. With the Commanders 7-1-1 ATS as small home dogs of fewer than five points when coming off a win, and Game Fifteen division home dogs standing 6-1 ATS against foes coming off a win, you know the right side of this game. Finally, NFL home teams coming off a one-point win-no-cover that was preceded by a Bye week are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2020 when playing with revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU is 2-4 SUATS in the post-season since 2019, and after fattening up on too many portions of Purdue burgers and French-fried Spartans, dealing with the tougher SEC has yielded a 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS record versus the Self Love Conference since 1990. The Buckeyes also nurse one hella hangover after losing to Michigan, going 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS after an outright beating from the Wolverines. Tennessee has also had plenty of years leading their fans on, only to crush them with some bitter defeat and an October loss to Arkansas, which looked like the dagger. The Vols went 6-1 down the stretch with a rugged defense that gave up only 167 points all season. Tennessee will only be as good as RB Dylan Sampson, who crossed the 100-yard mark in 10 games, scoring 22 times. The Vols bring in some numbers that will no doubt raise hackles in the Desert … including 8-1 SUATS vs. .750 or greater against non-conference teams since 2016, 6-1 SU, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven bowl games and vs the Big 10, 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

Wilson brings a 41-22-3 ATS career mark as an underdog into today’s contest, including 19-7-1 ATS in division games. While the Black Birds came alive in last week’s 21-point win over the Giants, it was against the Giants. Remember, Pittsburgh has won eight of the last nine games in this series, and Baltimore is 0-4 SUATS in its last four division games when seeking revenge, as well as 2-9 ATS laying points after taking them the previous game. Finally, playing against any NFL home favorite of 8 or fewer points on Saturday during the regular season if they are facing a .570 or greater foe coming off a SUATS loss is 10-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

You can argue there’s no more experienced playoffs head coach than Dabo Swinney, and his record as an underdog is more five-star than any recruits he’s brought in lately, 12-2 ATS as a dog of five or more, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. The Dabster is also 11-5 SUATS in the last 16 bowl games, 8-2 ATS when the underdog, and 6-1 ATS as the underdog when coming off a win. Want more? Dabo is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS versus a team off a SU favorite loss. 

Rating: 2 Units

Lions may be strong enough in this one, thanks to an excellent defense that held opponents to season-low yardage five times. Franklin is 8-1 SU and 5-3 ATS vs the ACC and 13-28 SU vs Top 25 opponents, but most of those are from the Big 10. The B1G Boys are rough on the ACC in the bowl season, owning an impressive 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS mark, and this regular season, the conference dominated the Atlantic Coast rivals going 11-1 In the Stats and 7-1 In the Stats vs. the ACC bowl reps. SMU averaged 38.5 PPG, 6th best in the nation, but even after getting lit up by Oregon, Penn State’s defense is 8th in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and 6th in yards allowed/game at 282.1. The good news for Franklin is SMU doesn’t fall in his 1-15 vs. Top 5 programs record, a record that had Happy Valley fans yelling at him during the Ohio State loss. 

CFB Playoff Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Fighting Irish have a surprising 0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995, an even weirder 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 teams. The IU numbers are sweeter than a Hoosier Sugar Cream Pie, with Cignetti 30-6 all time vs. FBS and 6-1 SUATS vs teams .750 or greater and 5-1 ATS coming off a win over 48 plus points. IU has lived off the brilliant play of Manning Award fi nalist Kurtis Rourke (27 TD 4 INT and his top target Elijah Sarret, who rode along to Bloomington with Cignetti from James Madison. The Irish turn to veteran QB Riley Leonard (16 passing TDs and 14 rushing) plus the strong legs of Jeremiyah Love, who has scored in each game this season. The victory formula is simple: the winner of the run game vs. run defense battle should prevail. Consider that Bowl dogs who score 56 or more in their final regular season game are 5-1 SUATS since 1990, including 5-0 SUATS if they gave up 27 points or fewer on the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gators are also 0-3 ATS in the last three bowl games, and they were a 7-point or greater favorite in and against bowling teams this year; the Boys from Old Florida were 2-5 SU and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats). The almighty SEC is also 1-3 vs the AAC in bowl games (we will be checking under the hoods of our car before starting it after printing that). In the meantime, Tulane HC Jon Sumrall spurned North Carolina’s advances and signed a contract extension to stay in New Orleans, but the same cannot be said for highly-touted QB Darian Mensah, who fl ed to Duke this week. Look for Tulane to lean heavily on RB Makhi Hughes, who ran for 1,372 yards with 15 scores. Florida QB D.J. Lagway was the fan favorite in Gainesville from the first game on, and after his counterpart Graham Mertz tore his knee, Lagway began to show the form that has everyone excited for next year as he appears to be avoiding the magnetic transfer portal. He finished 5-1 as a starter after a 31-11 win over Tallahassee Community College. But Lagway will be running into a quality Green Wave defense that held four teams to season-low yardage in a season of bookends. Tulane started 1-2 and finished 0-2, but the middle was sweeter than the center of a Reese’s Cup, 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. Assuming there are no more dramatic transfers out of Tulane, consider that playing against any college bowl double-digit favorite coming off a SU victory and 3 ATS wins if they have won outright in 17 or fewer of their last 22 games.is 11-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Unsurprisingly, the 61-year-old Rich Rod has done a superb job at the school, going 26-10 and 18-3 in league play. The Gamecocks lead the country in rushing plays of 10-plus yards with 102 and are eighth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage (75.6). On the negative side, the Gamecocks have allowed more than 400 yards in four of their last six games. We’ll toss in the fact that CUSA bowl dogs off a win are 2-7 ATS versus MAC opponents, and Rodriguez is 2-9-1 ATS in bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Denver Broncos continue to shine. They have won four straight games. The Broncos have been dominant in the second half, posting a 6-2 record in their past eight bouts. The Los Angeles Chargers are stumbling at the worst time, dropping three of their past four games after a 40-17 home defeat against the Buccaneers last week. This season, Los Angeles has been more productive on the ground than in the air. They only opt for the pass in 55% of their plays. This is good news for the Broncos who are conceding an average of 98 rushing yards per game, good for fifth. J.K. Dobbins was key in the Chargers win against the Broncos in the first meeting but the running back is not playing in this one. Also, Herbert has been kept in check, posting 218 or fewer passing yards in four of his past five games. The Broncos have momentum while this Chargers team seems to stumble when it matters most.  Sean Payton is 17-9 SU and 19-7 ATS record as a division dog in a revenge-seeking role. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hilltoppers are 14-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 13 points versus Fun-in-the-Sun Belters. They are also 38-11-2 ATS as a dog of 9 or fewer points, including 17-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Add to these numbers a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record as a bowler with a .600-or-greater win percentage and an 11-2  ATS mark if coming off a loss and going against a foe also coming off a loss. Finally, there is a pesky 3-1-1 ATS record as a bowler if they are allowing fewer than 25.5 PPG. The bottom line is that there is too much stick-to-itiveness to overlook here. On the James Madison side, the Dukes sat at 8-2 late in the season and were closing in on a visit to the Sun Belt Championship game, but finished with losses to Appalachian State and Marshall (35-33 in double-overtime) to fall short of that goal. Consider that bowl favorites of six or more points in this role are 1-7 ATS. Also, Sun Belt bowl favorites are 15-25 ATS in bowl games since 2019, including 2-8 ATS when coming off a loss. The numbers say go with the Toppers.

Rating: 2 Units

Mountaineers will be playing for an interim head coach in Chad Scott, as Neal Brown was fired on Sunday, one day after the Hillbillies were stomped, 52-15, to finish the season at 6-6. Brown lost four of his last seven games by double-digits, with three defeats coming in Morgantown. He went 37-35 in six seasons and took his Mountaineers to 4 bowl games, but was unable to win more than six games in a season just once. WVU is also 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine bowl games, while Big 12 bowlers are just 1-3 SUATS versus AAC opponents. Conversely, Memphis earned a No. 25 ranking in the AP Poll and College Football Playoff standings this week after pulling off a 34-24 road upset over Tulane on Thanksgiving, collecting back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. This is the Tigers’ second straight year squaring off against Big 12 competition in the postseason. Last December, Memphis upended Iowa State 36-26 on its home fi eld at the Liberty Bowl and are 3-0 SUATS in bowls under Silverfield. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, were 0-6 SUATS versus fellow bowl teams this season and lost the stats battle in six of their last seven games to conclude the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings just keep winning games and now Sam Darnold’s name is in the MVP conversation. In the last game against the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings scored 42 points and they ended up winning by 21 points. The Vikings scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and that was enough for the victory. Sam Darnold completed 22 of his 28 passes for 347 yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Addison caught eight passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Jefferson finished with seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikings on the season are averaging 26.1 points while their defense is giving up 18.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 9th in the league while the defense is ranked 6th. If Darnold plays strong again here, this should be an easy victory. 

Rating: 2 Units

On paper, the Packers should be stoked, coming off a 34-31 slugfest loss to division-leading Detroit. They can take solace in knowing that Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last ten NFC West contests. However, Seattle counters at 11-1 ATS as non-division home dogs and 9-2 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday tussle. However, playing against any sub .700 NFL road team from Game Fourteen out coming off a loss that was preceded by 3 wins versus an opponent coming off consecutive wins is 14-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth for the second time in the last five years. While they hold down the No. 2 seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, the fact remains that they’ve won their past two games despite being out-yarded in both contests – yes, they were out-statted by the Panthers last week. They are also just 4-8 ATS when hosting AFC North foes. Enter their Keystone counterpart, Pittsburgh, who has cashed six times in a row at NFC sites while going 6-1 ATS after hosting a division rival. Finally, Mike Tomlin loves dogging it up as his 60-34-7 ATS career mark would attest. He’s especially adept when taking 5 or more points, going 31-12 outright and 32-10-1 ATS against foes coming off a win.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We know one thing for sure: at 7-6, they are currently +54 in overall point differential. Just ahead of them is 12-1 Kansas City at +56. It sure looks like a massive injustice to us. The Chargers are in the No. 6 slot in the AFC Playoff picture but are currently riding a 4-game ITS (In The Stats) losing skein). That finds them “leaking oil” as a favorite in this contest. We realize Tampa’s recent wins have come against the likes of the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders (7-32 combined this season), but the Bucs are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the second of consecutive AFC confrontations, including 4-0 ATS away. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-15-1 ATS after losing to the Chiefs when they sport a .454 or greater win percentage. Finally, Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is 16-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career against opponents coming off a loss, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS from Game Nine out.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Miami thawed out in time last week following their visit to Green Bay when they edged the Jets in overtime. They’ll invade Houston knowing they are 7-1 SUATS in post-Jets jousts. They are also 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, coming off a win behind Tua Tagovailoa when the Dolphins are facing a .615 or fewer opponent, as well as 5-1-1 ATS versus rested foes.  Houston is riding an 0-8-2 ATS ledger from Game Thirteen out when coming off a win of seven or fewer points. Finally, Miami is 14-8 SU and 14-7-1 ATS from Game Thirteen out during the regular season when both teams are coming off a win, including 5-0 SUATS with a .500 or fewer win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cadets are just 1-6-1 ATS as favorites of two or more points in this series when the Mids are carrying the revenge chip. The Swabbies have also been 14-6-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a military loss, including 9-2-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 20 points. While it’s true that both teams throw the ball much more than they did a few years ago, don’t read too much into it. In the last ten meetings, neither team has scored more than 21 points, so you may want to have a few NoDoz tablets on hand if you’re looking to make it all the way to the end without missing some late heroics. Yes, Army has won six of the last eight contests on the scoreboard, but laying a touchdown to a potent Navy squad averaging 32.8 PPG is not how we want to approach such a fierce rivalry. Instead, we’ll look for Navy to load up the missile launchers and fire away.  Finally, Military teams coming off an outright win as a dog are 7-0 ATS against fellow military teams since 2001. 

Rating: 2 Units

QB Joe Burrow has an MVP-type season with little to show. His 107.4 QB Rating this season ranks 4th best in the league. He also has the oddsmakers in his corner, as the sportsbooks have installed the 4-8 Bengals as a road favorite here tonight. We can’t do that. Not with the Cats 2-8 ATS on the Monday Night road, and 1-4 ATS versus the NFC East, and the troubled Cowboys checking in with a 7-0 ATS record in games after Giants gatherings, and 4-1 SUATS in their last five games on Mondays, look for Dallas to improve to 5-0 ATS in this series tonight.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We love to fade coaches, players, and teams coming off record-setting efforts in their previous games. And one could hardly blame them for casting an eye on the Lions next week. The Bills are 0-5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, while the Rams are 5-0 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season. With the Bills scoring 30-plus points in each of its last six games and the Butt Heads having surrendered 30-plus points in only two games this season, we can’t help but feel the air coming out of the Bills today. Finally, Rams head coach Sean McVay is 33-18 SU and 32-18-1 ATS from Game Twelve out versus .823 or greater opponents, including 9-3 ATS as a dog of six or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

The biggest knock on the Vikes this week is their narrow one-point win over the Cardinals last week, in which Minnesota was out-yarded by 133 yards. Then there is Minny’s mediocre 3-6 ATS ledger at home coming off a home game. We realize the Birds have been downright dirty in this series at 1-5 ATS and against NFC North foes (1-7 ATS). However, we’ll focus instead on Cousins’ 18-9 SUATS career record when his team is off consecutive losses, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in this role against foes on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants are riding a 0-7 outright losing streak entering this contest. Just so you know, any NFL home team on a seven-game losing skid that has lost the money in each of its last five games is 7-2 ATS when facing a losing opponent, including 5-0 ATS at home. With backup QB Tommy Devito sidelined with a forearm injury, Drew Lock will be back behind center for the G-Men. Lock is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS at home in his NFL career when his team is coming off a loss. And then there are the 4-8 Aints who, like the Giants, ain’t going anywhere this season. They are 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. With the league’s smallest Giants 7-0 ATS after playing on the division road in its last game and 11-3 ATS coming off a Thursday, the numbers point one-way as New Orleans pays the price for being favored ‘by default. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game 7 out who won 7 or more games last year if they allow 4.6 or more Yards Per Rush and they are facing a .166 or fewer foe are 12-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Undefeated favorites of six or fewer points on neutral fields are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in conference title games since 2013 when facing foes with at least one loss on the season. Penn St HC Franklin is 42-15 SU and 34-21-2 ATS in conference games when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS from Game Eleven out – including 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS from Game Twelve out. Meanwhile, the Ducks will have to overcome the fate of past single-digit favorites in Big Ten championships, who have gone 3-4 outright and 1-6 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas backers won’t be cashing tickets, calling out the fact that UT head coach Steve Sarkisian is 7-11-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win in his career when favored against winning foes, including 0-5-1 ATS versus foes that scored more than 40 points in their previous game. Then there’s Georgia head coach Kirby Smart’s super-sharp 5-0 ATS record as a dog of fewer than five points. Additionally, the Georgia Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under head coach Kirby Smart when not favored by double-digits if they allowed more than 30 points in their previous game. Finally, teams seeking same season revenge in conference title games are just 20-31 SUATS when facing foes coming off an ATS loss, including 0-4 SUATS against foes that won twelve or more games the previous season.

Conference Championship Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Defending MAC champs are 1-6 ATS and 1-7 SU when trying to repeat. Since 2006, Miami is 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 ATS when Ohio brings a .666-win percentage into the game. Additionally, MAC title dogs are 16-6-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS vs. teams coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Finally, MAC dogs are 16-6-3 in conference championship games, including 8-1-1 ATS if they surrendered 21 or fewer points in their last game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Black Knights are 10-1 ‘In The Stats’ this season, winning the yardage by an average of +106 net yards per game. And when it comes to AAC title games, home teams are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, including 3-0 SUATS when not coming off a double-digit win.  Jeff Monken, wraps up his 11th year in West Point after clinching a perfect 8-0 AAC record in the regular season. Finally, teams in conference championship games, coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite of more than -11 points, are 1-7-1 ATS since 2005, including 0-5 ATS with a win percentage of .750 or less.

Rating: 2 Units

Since the history of College Conference Championship Games began in 1992, there have been a total of four games that were right-back revenge from a season-ending loss, and the avenging teams have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. Those are good numbers, but not as good as the Gamecocks’ 4-0 SUATS record at home when coming off a loss in their two seasons in the FBS, outscoring foes 141-41 in those same games. Meanwhile, the Toppers are just 4-7 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog, including 0-5 ATS if the upset win came against a conference foe. 

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams on Thursday, coming off a Thanksgiving Day win, are just 1-6 ATS when facing avenging foes. Meanwhile, the Packers are 5-0 outright after Thanksgiving Day performances. The Cheeseheads will need to overcome a bad case of series history, though, as they are 3-11 ATS last fourteen games against the Mouth That Roared, including 0-5 ATS when coming off consecutive wins. So, where do we go from here? If you like ‘before and afters,’ you’ll love knowing that Green Bay is 6-0 ATS before Seattle skirmishes and 6-0-1 ATS after Miami meetings. Couple it with Packers head coach Matt LaFleur’s 12-4 ATS dog log when seeking revenge – including a 3-0 SUATS mark when facing a .900 or better foe, and we’ll do our usual and go on the take tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Browns and Broncos. Man, did they have some classic battles in the AFC Championship in 1986, 1987 & 1989. Cleveland got it done in the snow globe on TNF. Since 2017, Myles Garrett & with TJ Watt lead the NFL with 11 games with multiple sacks & forced fumble. Denver is off to it's best start (7-5) since '16. Bo Nix & Peyton Manning are the only Broncos with 200+ passing yards and 2+ TD passes in 4 straight home games. Browns in the midst of a 4- game road losing streak, putting up 16 or fewer points in all 4 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore is the No. 1 team in the NFL in terms of both red zone touchdown percentage and offensive explosive play rate. We realize that the Black Birds are 8-1 ATS at home versus .700 or greater versus non-division foes, and QB Lamar Jackson is an eye-popping 23-1 outright against NFC opponents. However, the Eagles counter at 14-2 outright in their last sixteen games against AFC opposition and 3-0 ATS as dogs at AFC sites. We like dogs that can rush the ball; nobody does it better than the Eagles. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints go 2-0 SUATS to start the season by a winning margin of 91-19. Then they lost seven games in a row, going 1-6 ATS, only to follow that mess up with a recent 2-0 SUATS win skein. On the flip side, the Rams start the season 1-4 SUATS, only to come out of the Bye going 4-1 SUATS before falling to the Eagles last week. The Rams are 2-5 ATS away in Domes and 2-5 ATS against foes coming off a Bye, while the host in this series is 10-0 ATS.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 19,627 passing yards and can surpass Jameis Winston (19,737 passing yards) for the second-most passing yards by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (20,618 passing yards) has more. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins checks in at 11-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog when his team is coming off back-to-back losses, including 9-1 ATS in the last ten games. Not only is Atlanta 5-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week, but the Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off a Bye week.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers are 5-0 this season against teams that are currently above .500, but just 3-3 against teams that are under .500. Adding salt to the wound, over the past 30 years, NFL teams were 107-1 when holding their opponent to one or fewer first downs and forcing at least three turnovers while also totaling at least 350 yards of offense. The Steelers did all those things on Thursday night and still lost, which means that the NFL teams are now 107-2 in that situation. With the 4-7 Bengals one loss from having the final nail pounded into its coffin by the 8-3 Steelers, we need to consider that Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week while Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Marshall is only 3-7 ITS (In The Stats) this campaign, while JMU is 9-2 ITS. Hmm, something looks off here. Meanwhile, Jimmy is plenty mad just about now, sporting the better numbers while looking up at Marshall in the Sun Belt standings. While they can’t make it to the title game, they can get a large measure of revenge in their Last Home Game from a 26-2 loss they suffered here as double-digit chalk when the Herd last visited in 2022. The Mad Men are 2-0 SUATS in regular season finales since joining the FBS, winning by an average margin of 41 points per game. FYI: Last season, they dropped their LHG, 26-23, as a double-digit favorite to Appalachian State. They won’t make the same mistake this year since Marshall is 2-10 SUATS in the second of consecutive away games, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS versus sub .750 foes

Rating: 3 Units

It’s not good news for the Longhorns. Not only is Bevo a ghastly 2-11 ATS as a favorite of 21 or fewer points versus SEC opponents, but Steve Sarkisian’s bunch is just 1-4 ATS in their most recent five tries as conference road chalk. Not so for the Aggies, who are 7-2-1 ATS their last ten versus an .800 or better conference opponent and have cashed tickets in five of the last series showdowns. Hey, if any coach in America can rally his team after a crushing defeat, it’s A&M’s Mike Elko, and his squad hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season. Elko also chips in with a 6-2 ATS mark as a conference dog, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS away off a SU conference home win, including 0-6 ATS in the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

The last foe to tag the Ducks with a defeat was – you guessed it – the same Washington Huskies that are coming to Eugene. The Bad Dogs took the Ducks down two times last season, including a 34-31 win as a 10-point dog in the Pac-12 championship game. That loss kept Oregon from being one of the final four playoff teams last year, and U-Dub will likely pay the price here. Don’t be concerned about OU scoring a season-low 16 points in their win over Wisconsin, as Camp Randall Stadium is a snake den for many visiting teams. Consider Oregon’s 6-1 ATS record after failing to score 20 points in the previous game and its 8-3 ATS mark off a SU win of 3 or fewer points when facing a sub .700 foe. The Huskies limp into town with an awful 1-6-1 ATS ledger after a week of rest and a money-burning 2-11 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points. Folks, this is the best Oregon team we’ve seen since they ditched the ho-hum Green & Gold uniforms of old and hired the costume designer from “Flash Gordon” to put a futuristic spin on their duds. Washington is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Rating: 3 Units

Fan sentiment toward coach Kelly is not running high – especially with his choke-on-a-bone $61 million contract buyout likely ensuring his return next season. As for this evening’s showdown in Red Stick, Kelly stands 0-3 ATS as a career favorite of fewer than seven points in Last Home Game situations. Worse, his team enters on a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS run and is flatter than Louisiana roadkill. The Sooners only have momentum from the win over Bama, as this will be their first chance to register back-to-back victories since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. But compared to lifeless LSU, it’s enough for us considering that Oklahoma is 21-7 SUATS in regular season finales, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

CFB Mismatch of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Dame is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or fewer points, 1-5 ATS with single revenge, and 3-6 ATS in this series with a .900 or greater win percentage. Ugh. While USC  is 7-2 ATS in Last Home Games and 8-3-1 ATS as a dog in Last Home games, including 6-0 ATS with a sub .600 win percentage. Don’t forget about head coach Lincoln Riley, who stands 9-4-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0-1 ATS with a sub .700 win percentage. Consider that playing against Notre Dame in its final game of the regular season if they own a .900 or greater win percentage and they are facing a foe who allows fewer then 22 PPG is 6-0 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Boston College is looking to make amends for last year’s 24- 16 loss while sporting a 22-10 ATS record when seeking revenge for a conference loss. That spread record (since 2016) includes a 5-0 ATS mark against foes coming off a pair of losses. Pitt, meanwhile, has lost four straight after a 7-0 start, getting crushed 37-9 by Louisville on Saturday, as the Cardinals knocked Panther QB Eli Holstein out of the game in the first quarter and eventually outgained Pitt, 509-365. It’s all part of a 1-7 nosedive by these Cats in their final five games of the season for the past two seasons.

Rating: 2 Units

Be careful here, folks. Tennessee is 1-5 versus conference revenge in the last two seasons and 1-4 as road favorites of more than six points. The cuffs and collars just don’t match. Besides, Vandy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when they have a winning record (including 3-1 SUATS) and 4-1 against the number when playing an SEC foe with a better-than .800 win percentage. We love how well Vandy teams have gone toe-to-toe with the Vols. Head coach Clark Lea has this program moving in the right direction – the Commodores won just nine games in the previous four seasons, and now they are guaranteed to finally complete the regular season at or above the .500 mark in this campaign.

Rating: 3 Units

The Dolphins have reappeared with Tua back behind center, riding a 3-0 SUATS win skein. The problem tonight, though, is the weather is expected to be freezing in Green Bay, with temps in the 20s at kickoff. That’s not good news for the Frozen Fish, who has a record of 25-46-1 in outdoor games where the temperature is 40°F or colder. Miami is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven Thursday road games and 1-6-1 ATS in its previous eight games against the NFC North. Green Bay is two games behind first place Detroit in the NFC North and has held three of its last five foes to season-low yardage. The bottom line is the Packers are one of only five NFL teams rushing the ball better than 50% of the time per game this season, along with the Eagles, Steelers, Lions, and Ravens. Is it surprising that these teams are 35-9 SU and 30-13-1 ATS overall this season? Finally, the Packers are 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS at home in non-division games when not favored by more than seven points under Matt LaFleur, including 8-1 SUATS versus .454 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions are 17-5 SUATS at home when coming off wins in each of their previous three games, including 11-2 SUATS when they sport a .690 or greater win percentage. Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points are 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS when facing .500 or fewer foes, including 7-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. The Bears have defeated the Lions three times in a row on Turkey Day but are 1-3 SUATS on Turkey Day when coming off a loss of three or more points, and 0-8 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in this series when Detroit is coming off successive SUATS wins. Finally, the Lions are 17-1 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit ATS win since 2020.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

By all accounts, it was the Ravens’ worst offensive showing of the year. On the other side of the field, the Chargers blew a 21-point lead but rebounded late to pull out an exciting 34-27 win with a last second field goal. The good news for the Bolts is that they are 10-1 ATS in games after battling the Bengals. They are also 16-6 ATS on Monday Nights versus non-division foes, including 7-0 ATS when the foe enters off a win. Grab the points and consider that the Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh is 38-15 SU and 35-15-2 ATS in his NFL career versus non-division opponents, including 13-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

The Rams’ defense is suddenly standing tall these days. They pressured New England QB Drake Maye on 47.8% of his drop backs, with 11 defenders generating at least one pressure. Jared Verse generated a team leading five pressures, with four coming in less than 2.5 seconds. When pressured, Maye was 11 of 18 for 96 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Eagles, who appear ready to give the Lions a run at the No. 1 seed, have won six games since their Bye week. They are, however, just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against the NFC West and could be peering ahead to the Ravens. In addition, the Eagles' 1-5 ATS away record on Sunday Nights when coming off a win seals the deal.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Frisco is 6-1 ATS after hosting a division foe and 5-0 SUATS in Game Eleven of the season. Green Bay counters at 9-0 ATS in its last eleven games against AFC West opposition and 6-0 ATS after playing on the division road in its previous game. The Niners shine in underdog roles, going 63-26-4 ATS when taking points in games where they rushed for 110 or more yards. Finally, when San Francisco is an underdog and rushes the ball for 150 or more rush yards, they zoom to 36-4-1 ATS. And that’s where we’ll be this today

Rating: 2 Units

Nix has kick-started the Denver offense and is suddenly in the talk of NFL Rookie of the Year following last week’s season-high 307 yards and four touchdowns in the Broncos’ 38-6 burial of the Falcons. And the Denver defense hasn’t always received the credit it deserves, yet it ranks No. 3 overall in the league. Meanwhile, the Raiders ride a six-game losing streak into this game and look like a team running out of gas. That’s not good news, mainly when Denver head coach Sean Payton feasts on the road, going 52-34-2 ATS in all games, including 10-1 SUATS when coming off a win of more than 18 points. 

Rating: 3 Units

Not surprisingly, Detroit piled up a 475-yard advantage over Jacksonville when the Lions achieved a franchise-record 645 yards of offense, scoring seven offensive touchdowns in a 52-6 victory over the Colts. The sticking point is that the Mouth That Roars is 10-2 ATS away in other Domes. The Colts counter at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS against the NFC North. In an anticipated Lions letdown, we need to consider that the Colts are 10-0 ATS against .800 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

With Tua healthy and back behind center and Tyreek Hill with touchdowns in consecutive games, winning its tenth straight game in November doesn’t figure to be a problem for Miami today. Tagovailoa completed 28 of his 36 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11 against the Raiders and was pressured on a season-low 16.2% of his drop backs. The Fish have fried the Pats in this series, going 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in the last eight matchups. They are also 7-1 ATS as single-division home chalk. On the other side, New England is 1-5 ATS in its last six division road games.

Rating: 3 Units

VPI head coach Brent Pry is just 1-7 SUATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. On the flip side, the Devils will be hitting the alleys for the third straight season, this time under veteran first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Yes, we get the fact that the Dukies are a mind-blowing 2-32 outright in Game Eleven of the season, but they are also 7-2 ATS as Game Eleven home dogs when seeking revenge (lost 47-45 and 38-35 in the past two seasons to the Heels). With that, we need to consider that Duke head coach Manny Diaz is 9-2 ATS as a dog of 11 or fewer points, including 5-0 ATS versus sub .600 opponents.

Big-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

After a puzzling 27-3 loss to Arizona, the 4-4 Cougars will need to pull off a pair of wins in their final two games to take first-year head coach Willie Fritz to a bowl game – a win here and next week at BYU. This will be Houston’s last game at TDECU Stadium, and that’s a plus for the Cats, who are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in home finales, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when they surrender fewer than 24 points per game. The real trouble for the Bears is a defense that has allowed 36 points per game in its last seven games. Now, coming off four consecutive revenge wins in a row, we need to consider that playing against any college football team from Game Ten out coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater opponent is 18-37-2 ATS in this role. When dressed as favorites of 8 or fewer points, they slip to 9-27-1 ATS, including 1-12 ATS if they won three or fewer games last season.

Rating: 3 Units

The Red Raiders clinched a bowl pass two games ago and promptly went into the toilet bowl with a 41-27 loss to Colorado the next week. They arrive here with a week of rest to right themselves at 10-2 ATS games when coming off a double-digit loss and 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog. While the Cowboys do own a nifty 9-2 ATS ledger as a home dog, all we need to do is look at their 500-yard defense that helped put them behind a stats log of -116 net yards per game. Look for Tech to get back on track today against a dog with zero bite.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ll gladly take the points with a BYU squad that has cashed three straight tickets in this series and catches the Sun Devils with blood rival Arizona waiting on deck. ASU can knock the Mormons out of second place in the Big 12 race with a win, but we think that’s just too large of a leap for the Pitch Forks especially considering that playing on any CFB dog who started the season 7-0 or greater coming off its initial loss of the year if they are facing a foe that won 7 or fewer games last season who won its previous game by fewer than 40 points is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Cougars start a new win streak.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

A bunch of good numbers suggests UK might get the money even if they don’t win on the scoreboard. The Cats are 6-0 ATS in LRG (Last Road Games), 6-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points, and 6-2 ATS away versus an .850 or better league foe. Meanwhile, hidden within the layers of the Longhorns’ 9-1 record is the troubling fact that head coach Steve Sarkisian is just 10-16-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins and facing foes who allow fewer than 24 points per game, including 5-12-1 ATS from Game Six out. The line is hovering around three TDs at the moment, but if you’re still having second thoughts about backing the 4-6 Wildcats with their backs to the bowl wall, then consider that Kentucky is 18-5 outright and 18-4 ATS when coming off a non-conference home game, including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS away.

Rating: 2 Units

The Buckeyes are 29-0 SU in the last twenty-nine games of this series – that is simply unbelievable!! They are also 10-1 ATS at home versus conference opponents with rest but only 2-5 ATS as Big Ten favorites of 15 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti got a $64 million contract on his week off. Aside from history, the knock is that IU has played a soft slate, with nary a win against a Top 25 team this season. Still, it’s rare to find a 10-0 underdog catching this many points. In fact, there have been 13 underdogs with a 10-0 record in Game Eleven of the season. They are 8-5 ATS overall, including 1-0 ATS when taking more than 12 points (Miami, Fla lost 18-16 at Arkansas in 1988 as a 16-point dog). Cignetti is also 10-1 ATS away in conference games, plus 21-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when undefeated with the better record. 

Rating: 2 Units

Left tackle Dawand Jones, who’s started eight of the Browns’ ten games this season, will miss the remainder of the year after suffering a fractured ankle in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. This comes just three games after the Browns announced Jones would be the starting left tackle moving forward, replacing Jedrick Wills Jr. It’s a continuing part of the injury overhaul to Cleveland’s once top-rated offensive line. So, while the Steelers are 6-0 ATS when coming off a division home game, and the visiting team is 5-0 ATS in this series, it’s difficult backing a team on the decline that is 9-39-1 SU in this series since 2000. With the Browns 5-27-2 ATS in outright losses as a division home dog this decade, including 0-2 ATS under Kevin Stefanski, we're on the Steelers tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

Tech has been a wreck when coming off a game like their previous encounter with Miami, going 2-9 ATS as the favorite when they were a dog in the last game. Worse, beating Miami seems to send Ga. Tech into a stupor, going 0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a win over the Hurricanes. The Wolfpack are among the many 5-5 teams needing that one more win for a bowl game, and they have a 9-2 ATS mark in ACC games vs. a team coming off an ACC tilt. Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. Finally, NCSU is 24-5 ATS with rest in conference play since 1997, and that includes a hefty 11-1 SUATS, versus .600 or worse opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

When the schedule was released in April, this one looked like it could be "The Battle for the Lone Star State". Not anymore. No Dak = no good for the Boys. His injury is much worse than anyone thought a week ago. Cooper Rush 13/23 for 45 yards, that is the fewest passing yards in a game for the Cowboys since 2001. Dallas D, which is decimated by injuries, is allowing 34.5 ppg during their 4 game losing streak. Boys had their 2nd game this year with 5+ turnovers (rest of the NFL has 0 such games) and is 0-4 at home for the 1st time since '10. Texas must bounce back off SNF crusher.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals enter with a super-sharp 11-2 ATS mark as a dog after dressing up as a favorite the previous game and 9-2 ATS when coming off a loss and facing a foe coming off a win. They are also 9-0 ATS against AFC West opposition coming off a SUATS win, and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 35 or more points. On the other side of the field, the Bolts are 1-11 ATS as non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, 4-7 outright, and 2-9 ATS in Game Ten of the season, including 1-8 ATS as a favorite. Finally, QB Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career, including 5-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo comes into this one carrying a huge playoff loss revenge chip on its shoulder from a 27-24 loss on this field last season and that QB Josh Allen brings a 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS carer mark into this contest against undefeated foes. On the flip side, we also know that the Chiefs are 14-3 SU and 17-1 ATS as road dogs since 2016, But, when push comes to shove, it’s next to impossible to look past QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-4 SU and 15-1 ATS career mark as an NFL underdog. And this intriguing note in closing: If you’re a Chiefs fan, don’t get discouraged if they are trailing in the second half of this contest. Kansas City has won a league record nine straight games when trailing at any point in the second half. 

Rating: 3 Units

Chicago is now 0-2 against the two worst teams in the league, Carolina and New England, and 0-3 SUATS since their Bye week – losing every game by 100-plus yards - while having not scored a point in their last 23 possessions. Additionally the Bears are 0-10 SUATS the last ten games in this series. They are also 2-10 ATS in games when coming off an outright loss as a home favorite.  Finally, Green Bay is 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a Bye week when facing a sub .500 opponent.