Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup looking for the series win and they have scored 6+ runs in three of their last five games. The Rays are 38-32 on the road this year, while the Rangers are 39-32 at home. Texas has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 5+ runs in four of their last five. 

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is the preferred side for Sunday's matchup. The Braves own the better overall record, lead the division by five games and have advantages in both offense and pitching. Atlanta's team ERA is lower, its WHIP is better, and its starting pitcher has the stronger ERA and WHIP profile. The Braves also won the opening game of the series 5-2. Philadelphia's home record is strong, but Atlanta's broader statistical profile makes the Braves the more trustworthy side at a reasonable moneyline price.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati was able to get the win on Saturday in game two and they have won three of their last four games. The Reds are 35-38 at home this year, while the Brewers are 41-30 on the road. Milwaukee has lost two of their last three games and they have allowed 5+ runs in three of their last four. The Brewers are starting Harrison, who has allowed 9, 1, 0, 3, and 0 earned runs in his last five stats, while Singer has allowed 3+ earned runs in five straight outings. Take the Brewers

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Red Sox to keep rolling with Sonny Gray on the mound, who is the far better pitching option in this matchup than Chris Bassitt. Gray has a 9-2 record and 2.87 ERA on the road and will face a struggling Orioles offense that scores just 2.5 runs against righties in their last 5 games, and as a result, they have four consecutive losses. I don’t trust Bassitt and his 4.97 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP and the Red Sox have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. Take the Red Sox to win this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I think this is a low-scoring duel between two of the better options in their respective rotations. With Shane McClanahan on the shelf right now, it feels like Rasmussen could be Tampa’s ace and deGrom is still the Rangers’ ace level starter. I think this ends up being a duel, so give me the Rangers here.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has pitched exceptionally well this season, amassing an 11–5 win‑loss record, a 3.31 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 154 strikeouts in 130.1 innings pitched. Additionally, the Philadelphia Phillies have played well at home, compiling a 38-31 record at Citizens Bank Park. With that said, the Phillies are the clear side to be on in this one. I am backing the Philadelphia Phillies on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline is the preferred side in what looks like a relatively close matchup. Analytics slightly favors the Astros, but Arizona enters with the better overall record and the stronger season-long pitching statistics. The most important factor is the starting matchup. Neither scheduled starter has pitched particularly well, but Arizona holds advantages in ERA and WHIP while Houston's starter enters with a 6.45 ERA and has allowed 54 hits across only 44.2 innings. With the Diamondbacks also carrying a slightly better batting average and a 3.5-game advantage in the overall standings, Arizona offers the better side.

Rating: 2 Units

Martinez’s 2.99 ERA, 3.5 percent walk rate, and 1.96 road ERA headline the case, backed by a stronger bullpen, a hotter lineup, and Texas’s 24-26 home record against right-handed starters. The Rangers’ cold bats do not project to solve a command artist. Expect Martinez to keep the Rangers off the bases and expect the Rays’ bullpen to close it out. For September 4, Tampa Bay is the play on the Rays versus Rangers card.

Rating; 2 Units

Yesterday’s 6-5 scoreline immediately highlights the main risk here-both teams have the firepower to blow up the under with a single big late inning. Still, Baltimore’s recent trend is too significant to overlook: 11 of the Orioles’ last 12 games have finished under 8.5 runs. Both Baz and Suarez are working with season ERAs around four or lower, so the first five or six innings should be much calmer than yesterday’s slugfest. Baltimore have often been involved in close, low-scoring games lately-think 3-2, 4-3, or 4-2 results. 

Rating: 2 Units

Expect Wacha to carve up a cold Miami lineup in a park where he has been outstanding, while the Royals bats do enough damage against a road-vulnerable Alcantara to build a lead. From there, Kansas City’s rested bullpen should protect the advantage and close the game out, the same blueprint that has fueled their strong home record against right-handed starters throughout the season. The play is the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline at home. With the sharper home starter, the hotter offense, the superior bullpen, and a decisive split against right-handers, the Royals are the complete side in this matchup. 

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Brewers to keep rolling in this one, as they have won back-to-back games after getting destroyed in the opening game of the series. They have scored 9 runs in their last two wins and have the pitching edge today with Logan Henderson on the mound with his 2.48 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP. He has been red-hot with one earned run in each of his last three starts, while Gausman has a 5.14 ERA as a Cub and has given up 8 runs in his last two home starts. Take the Brewers to win.

Rating: 2 Units

At essentially a pick'em price, Toronto offers the better side thanks to Soriano's stronger strikeout production and overall run prevention compared to Bibee's home-run vulnerability.

Rating: 2 Units

The Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline is the preferred side in what projects as one of Wednesday's closest games. Cleveland owns the better overall pitching numbers, but Toronto has the more favorable starting-pitching matchup and enters with considerably better recent momentum. The Blue Jays have won four of their last five, including three straight, while allowing only four runs during their current winning streak. Toronto has also already won two of the first three completed meetings between these clubs. 

Rating: 2 Units

Following a rough start to his Padres career, he has mostly settled in well. He had one weird inning in his last outing, and that followed a game with an early exit due to injury. But on the whole, Mize should be a reliable arm for the Friars. On the other side, Cincy will activate Brandon Williamson -- who has been on the IL since late April with a shoulder injury. They expect to piggyback him with Chase Burns starting next week, limiting Burns’ innings. This will be a heavy bullpen day for the Reds. I would think the Padres would cruise.

Rating: 2 Units

 I like the White Sox in a bounce-back spot on the road in this one, as they have the pitching edge with Sean Burke going up against Ronel Blanco. Burke has been better on the road with an excellent 5-2 record and 3.05 ERA, while Blanco has been terrible this season with a 7.71 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP and has been even worse at home, with an 8.10 ERA. The White Sox have both a better offense and a better bullpen and I expect them to win this one on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

I favor the Kansas City Royals over the Miami Marlins as the teams face off Tuesday evening. Kansas City has been playing inspired baseball of late as they attempt to build momentum for 2027. Miami sits at .500, 4 games back from the final National League wild card spot. Tuesday’s starting pitcher for the Royals will be Randy Dobnak. In 10 outings spanning 51.2 innings this season, the right-hander has posted a 1.92 ERA. His xERA sits far higher at 4.56, largely due to a low strikeout rate, but Dobnak is still in good form entering this matchup. Dobnak’s ability to generate ground balls helps him get out of jams, and he should pitch well against this Miami lineup. The Marlins have a 94 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.

Rating: 2 Units

I'm backing the Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline. The starting pitchers are close statistically, so this isn't simply a pitching mismatch, but Pittsburgh owns the stronger full-game profile. The Pirates are 34-32 at home compared with San Francisco's 23-45 road record, have scored 109 more runs and own the better team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Pittsburgh has also won two straight and three of its last five. San Francisco's starter gives the Giants a chance to remain competitive early, but over nine innings I prefer the home team. 

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona gets the nod in what should be one of Monday's more competitive games. Philadelphia enters with the better overall record and a three-game winning streak, but the Diamondbacks are 40-29 at Chase Field and hold a substantial advantage in the scheduled starting pitching matchup. Arizona's starter enters with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP compared with Philadelphia's 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Phillies' 32 home runs allowed by their scheduled starter are particularly concerning against an Arizona offense averaging nearly 4.53 runs per game based on the supplied season totals. Arizona has also won two of the first three meetings between these teams.

Rating: 2 Units

You can make a case for either team or either pitcher, but I have to lean toward the Brewers and the pitcher with Harrison on the mound. As good as Holmes has been, the Brewers are playing the better baseball at the moment, and Harrison has allowed 19 hits and 4 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings. You’re not going to get the Brewers at this price often the rest of the regular season. I’ll take it. Give me the Brewers in an intriguing Monday MLB contest.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the Boston Red Sox. Why? Boston starting pitcher Tolle has pitched at a high level recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts made this season. Conversely, Seattle hurler George Kirby arrives at this contest in subpar form, allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last three starts made in 2026. With that said, the Red Sox are the clear side to be on in this one. I am backing the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Cubs at home in this one with Imanaga on the mound, who has been solid this season. Chase Burns will start for the Reds and he has been excellent this season, but he has been weaker on the road and has given up 5 runs in each of his last two road starts. He will face a red-hot Cubs offense that torched the Reds with 17 runs yesterday, has scored 25 total runs in this series and averages 8.2 runs per game against righties in their last 5 games, while the Reds score just 1.6 runs per game against lefties in that span. Take the Cubs in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals and the plus money are worth a look at home with the quick turnaround, but Rogers has looked like his old all-star self over the last two months. Rogers has allowed just 17 earned runs in his last 53.1 innings. The Orioles are 9-2 in Rogers’ last 11 starts. I don’t care who the Cardinals are throwing out there on the mound. The O’s have the edge behind this new and improved Rogers. Give me the Orioles and the soft price.

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

In my view, this matchup favors the Texas Rangers. Why? Texas starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitched exceptionally well in his most recent outing, allowing zero earned runs, two hits and one walk across six innings pitched in the Texas Rangers thrilling 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels last week. Conversely, Chicago hurler Sean Burke arrives at this contest in subpar form, allowing four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts made in 2026. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Texas Rangers on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Red Sox in this one with the red-hot Sonny Gray on the mound, who has been elite this season and has a 9-2 record and 2.82 ERA on the road. On the flip side, Gusto sits on a 4.56 home ERA and the Marlins cannot offer him run support, as they average just 3.7 runs per game in their last 5. The Red Sox have the best bullpen in baseball and I expect them to take care of business in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Skenes as an underdog is usually attractive, but he has allowed 48 hits and 29 earned runs in his last 46 innings. Skenes hasn’t been as dominant as he’s usually been. Skenes has a 4.40 ERA on the road through 61.1 innings. King has been more consistent as of late, and he has a solid 3.21 ERA and a .213 allowed batting average in 75.2 innings at home. The Padres are also closing in on a wild card spot while the Pirates’ season has been over for a while. I’ll take the low price on the Padres at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Tolle has been fantastic in his first full season in the Big Leagues. He is a big dude who throws pure gas. His 3.08 ERA is no accident, and he is an uncomfortable at-bat, to say the least. He has scarcely posted a bad start all season, and we will tend to back him when he is on the mound. On the other side is Tyler Phillips, who has had a strong season as well, but he is not on Tolle’s level. Last time through the rotation, the Fish used Phillips as part of a bullpen game, so we should probably expect limited innings, at the very least. This game seems straightforward—we take the better team, playing better baseball, with the better pitcher on the mound.

Rating: 2 Units

Gilbert has the swing-and-miss ability and command to keep this game close deep into the night, but Wheeler has been even more reliable from a run-prevention standpoint, and Seattle's .229 team batting average gives him a favorable matchup. With Philadelphia priced low and both starters capable of controlling the game, the Phillies offer value in what should be a tight, low-scoring contest.

Rating: 2 Units

 I like the Nationals in this one, as they are facing a struggling Rockies squad that has six consecutive losses. The Nats also have the pitching edge as Cavalli will go up against Feltner, and Cavalli has back-to-back shutouts, while Feltner has been terrible this season and in very bad form lately. The Rockies’ offense has been ice-cold, scoring just 2.5 runs per game against righties in their last 5. Take the Nationals in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Rays. The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Tigers following a road win.

Rating: 2 Units

New York was able to get the win on Saturday in game two and they have alternated wins and losses over their last five games. The Mets are 29-36 on the road this year, while the White Sox are 38-26 at home. Chicago has also alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have allowed 14 runs to start this series. The White Sox are starting Newcomb, who will be an opener, while McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Take the Mets here.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Marlins in this one, as they are facing a struggling Washington squad that is just 2-9 in its last 11 games and its offense has fallen off a cliff, averaging just two runs per game in their last 5. The Marlins have an excellent history against the Nationals and the pitching edge in this game with Junk on the bump, who has given up two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, while Jackson Kent has looked terrible in his two starts this season. Take the Marlins to win.

Rating: 2 Units

There is a lot suspicious to me about this game -- not the least of which is that Cleveland is not really all that heavy of a favorite to win. You would expect the Guards to be huge favorites, and the fact that they are not makes me want to bet the Rockies. I know, it is never fun betting the Rockies to win, but even the bad teams win 40% of their games -- and that usually comes with a good payout. First, Tanner Bibee has been a struggling and unlucky pitcher. His last four decisions have been losses -- and even when he throws well, Cleveland fumbles the game away. He is a guy that relies on spin rate, but the ball doesn’t spin and break as much at elevation. On the other side is Gabriel Hughes, a guy who has given up seven runs in each of his last two starts, and those weren’t even at Coors Field. So why aren’t the Guardians heavy favorites? I don’t get it, but that definitely has me wanting to take the Rockies

Rating: 2 Units

I usually fade pitchers making their big league debut, but Peterson isn’t worth backing with this 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through 112.1 innings. Anderson also isn’t your typical prospect, as he’s considered top five in all of baseball. He dominated the College World Series, has looked sharp in the minors, and he’s expected to blossom into a front-of-the-line starter at some point. Please offer the low price and the Mariners at home.

Dog of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Rogers gives Baltimore an advantage on the mound, but Peralta's vulnerability and the Orioles' depleted bullpen make laying the short favorite less attractive. Tampa Bay's superior offense and overall pitching metrics provide enough value at an underdog price, while both starters' season ERAs and weakened relief corps create a favorable setup for scoring throughout this game. Tampa Bay's deeper and more consistent offense ultimately providing the difference. Baltimore's power bats keep the Orioles competitive, but the Rays' overall roster edge should be enough to secure the win.

MLB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Two bad teams with nothing to play for at this stage, but it’s clear the Royals are the ones most interested in padding a few wins. The A’s look like a team ready for the season to end, and they just can’t finish a game to get in the win column. Dobnak has been solid over 41.2 innings with a 1.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, while Jump has been hittable over 78 frames with a 4.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The Athletics appear useless right now. Give me the Royals.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays. Why? Tampa Bay starting pitcher Ian Seymour arrives at this contest in good form, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts made in 2026. Additionally, the Rays have played exceptional baseball at home this season, compiling a rather impressive 43-22 win-loss record at Tropicana Field. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

Both teams have been struggling mightily lately but the Nats have the pitching edge with Cade Cavalli on the bump, who sits on a 3.23 road ERA. On the flip side, Rocker has been in bad form, having given up 12 runs across his last three starts and the Rangers offense has been on a free fall with just two runs per game against righties in their last five games. The Nats have a far better bullpen ERA and a better offense in the same span, so I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Nationals on the moneyline for plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re getting plus money with a desperate Marlins team that needs a win to stay in the wild card race. Nola hasn’t been himself this season with a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while Alcantara looks like his old self through his last 27 innings, allowing 14 hits and 1 run. Through his last 4 starts, Alcantara has been arguably the best starter in baseball. The fish and the more favorable price have to be in one of the top spots for Wednesday’s MLB card.

Rating: 2 Units

It's easy to gravitate toward Robbie Ray, a proven veteran and 10-game winner. But don't dismiss Zac Thornton simply because he's the rookie. Thornton enters 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, compared with Ray's 10-7 record, 3.28 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. Thornton has already demonstrated that he belongs at this level, and his ability to limit traffic gives New York every opportunity to remain competitive into the later innings. That's where I continue to trust the Mets. Their bats have awakened, the bullpen has seemingly picked up where it left off despite the deadline changes, and this team keeps beating clubs with considerably more to play for. San Diego is the playoff contender. New York is the dangerous team playing with nothing to lose. Until the market properly adjusts to what these Mets have become, I'm willing to keep riding them. 

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Tigers as road dogs in this spot with Keider Montero on the mound and his 3.22 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He has given up one run or less in seven of his last eight road starts, while Braxton Ashcraft has given up 9 runs in his last two home starts. On top of that, the Tigers’ bullpen has been in far better form lately and have been much better against righties than the Pirates in their last 5 games. Take the Tigers for plus money in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Nick Martinez’s elite contact-management approach against a Toronto lineup built on strikeouts and a .304 OBP. Toronto swings and misses at a 916-strikeout pace as a team. Martinez doesn’t walk anyone and turns weak contact into outs. That’s not a stylistic quirk — it’s a fundamental incompatibility that plays out inning by inning over the course of a game. Soriano is good, but his 62 walks are a recurring vulnerability against a patient Tampa Bay lineup that drew 408 walks this season. The Rays just rattled off nine straight wins before a two-game blip against Baltimore. They’re healthy enough where it counts, they’re at home, and they’ve got the right pitcher on the mound.

Rating: 2 Units

Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga arrives at this contest in good form, allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts made this season. It is also noteworthy that the Cubs have played exceptional baseball at home amassing a robust 34-26 win-loss record at Wrigley Field. Let us not forget that the Chicago Cubs have compiled a formidable lineup in 2026 that is capable of scoring a high number of runs at any given time. With that said, I am backing the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Braves in a nice price on the road in this one with the red-hot Martin Perez on the mound, who has been untouchable lately with three consecutive shutouts. On the flip side, Ober has given up 14 runs in his last four starts and the Twins cannot hit lefties in their last five games, with just 0.9 runs per game against southpaws. On top of that, Atlanta has the 4th-best bullpen ERA in baseball, so I expect them to get the job done on the road.  

Rating: 2 Units

Between San Diego’s hot 29-game stretch, the Mets’ 28-34 home record and minus-19-unit slide, McLean’s stinginess creating a low-scoring script that favors the road team, and the plus-money price. San Diego starting pitcher Walker Buehler arrives at this contest in good form, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts made in 2026.  Grab the visitors and lock in the plus money before the sharps steam it.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Astros in this one. It was encouraging to see Bryan Woo have a decent road start for once, but I’m still not buying it after one good outing in all honesty. The Astros are still the better team playing better baseball over the last couple of months and I look for them to show up in this game and win the series to take another step in creating distance in the AL West race. Give me Houston.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers are going to be favored because they’re the Dodgers, they’re at home, and Skubal is on the mound. I get it. However, the Brewers are legit contenders and are a tough team to turn down in the underdog role. It’s that simple. Also, Henderson has been strong in his own right with a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. I’m going to side with the Brewers and the plus money every chance I get, as they’re one of the best teams in baseball.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago comes into this matchup looking to complete the sweep, but they have allowed at least five runs in three of their last five. The White Sox are 27-34 on the road this year, while the Tigers are 32-30 at home. Detroit has dropped three of their last four games and they really need a win in this contest. The Tigers are starting Anderson, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 12.0 innings, while Burke has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Take the White Sox here.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore starting pitcher Trevor Rogers arrives at this contest in good form, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts made in 2026. Conversely, Tampa Bay hurler Freddy Peralta has struggled recently, allowing seven earned runs or more in two of his last four starts made this season. With that said, I am backing the Baltimore Orioles

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta hurler Grant Holmes pitched exceptionally well in his most recent outing, scattering three hits and two walks across six innings pitched, in the Braves 2-1 defeat of the New York Yankees five days ago, while St. Louis starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez has displayed inconsistency on the mound recently, allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last four starts made this season. It is also noteworthy that the Braves have played at a high level at home, compiling a 41-22 record at Truist Park. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee hurler Jacob Misiorowski arrives at this contest in good form, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts made this season, while Los Angeles starting pitcher Jacob Wrobleski has struggled recently, allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last three starts made this season. With that said, the Brewers are the clear side to be on in this one. I am backing the Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 games and they have been in a bad slump lately. The Mariners are going with Hancock in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 6-7 with a 3.35 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs, but the team hasn't been having much success with him either. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but the team has lost 4 games in a row now with him starting and a big reason for that is having one of the worst offenses in MLB. The Astros are going with Wesneski in this one and he hasn't looked bad this year. He is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and the team has been having success with him. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting and they also have the much stronger offense to lean on here. Look for the Astros to continue rolling in this one with the better offense while the Mariners continue to have trouble in their spiral. 

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco hurler Landen Roupp pitched exceptionally well in his most recent outing, scattering two hits and five walks across 5.1 innings pitched, in a matchup with the Detroit Tigers five days ago. Additionally, the Colorado Rockies have played dreadful baseball away from home in 2026, amassing a 21-41 win-loss record on the road. With that said, I am backing the San Francisco Giants on the moneyline in this game.

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Guardians were right in the race for the division and still are, but lately they have been sliding down the standings. They have been in a big slump, now 3-7 in their last 10 games, and they have one of the worst offenses in MLB too. The Padres have been rolling though, now 7-3 in their last 10 games, and their offense has looked a lot better over the last week. The Padres are going with King, he is 7-8 with a 3.37 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him and the team has been having more success with him lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Guardians are going with Williams in this one and he has looked good this year. He is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA, but lately the team has had a lot of trouble with him. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but the team has lost 4 of their last 5 games with him starting and the bullpen has been giving up a lot more runs too. Look for the Padres to take advantage of this pitching matchup and stay hot against a slumping Guardians team with no offense.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins have looked better lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 games, but the Reds are 6-4 in their last 10 games with their offense starting to pick up too. The Reds are going with Burns in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA and he has been their ace this season. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs and the team has had some trouble with him lately too, losing 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and he will be looking to bounce back at home with a better start. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 13-6 with a 3.52 ERA and he has looked great lately. He gave up no runs in his last start and the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting, but he hasn't looked his best on the road. The Marlins have had a lot more trouble in road games this season too and that could give the edge to the Reds here with the stronger starter. Look for the Reds to continue rolling with that hot offense and take advantage of this pitching matchup with their best on the mound. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs have been rolling lately, going 8-2 in their last 10 games, and their pitching has looked a lot better too. The Cubs are going with Gausman in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-10 with a 4.29 ERA, but he has looked a lot better lately. He is coming off a good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs and his team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Nationals are going with Cavalli in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him. The Nationals do have one of the best offenses in the league this season, but the Cubs are right up there with them and the Cubs also have a much better pitching staff to lean on. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cubs to win this game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners look like a team that’s thrown in the towel on the season, as the offense isn’t showing up and the losses are getting out of control. As good as Gilbert has been for the most part, it probably doesn’t matter given the Mariners’ form. The Yankees are putting together a strong week, and Fried looks like his old self with a 2.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Fried has allowed 11 hits and 4 runs in his last 19.2 innings. The Yanks are the only option in this spot. The price isn’t too steep. Give me the home team.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a pitching-driven spot, and the pitching favors Cincinnati. Abbott has been dependable on the road, Martin has been getting hammered for a month, and the Reds have been winning consistently even with quiet bats. Back the Reds, trust Abbott’s recent road form, and expect Chicago’s struggling starter to keep the value firmly on Cincinnati’s side in a low-scoring, pitching-dependent game. In a matchup light on offense and heavy on pitching disparity, the Reds check every box that matters. Take Cincinnati with confidence and let the arms decide it.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Braves to keep rolling in this one, as the Mets are going for a bullpen game. Mahle is coming off a shutout start against the Yankees and has been very good at home with a 2.65 ERA. The Braves have both a better offense and a better bullpen throughout the season and I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Tigers in this one, as they have been red-hot lately with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. On the flip side, the Guardians have been struggling mightily with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games and are putting Forest Griffin on the mound, who has been in bad shape, with 14 earned runs across his last three starts. Valdez has been serviceable with two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and the Tigers also have a better bullpen to relief him. Take the Tigers in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays. Why? Tampa Bay starting pitcher Nick Martinez arrives at this contest in good form, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts made this season. Conversely, Athletics hurler Mason Barnett struggled in his most recent outing, allowing five earned runs across 4.1 innings, in the Cincinnati Reds 6-5 win over the Athletics last week. Additionally, the Athletics have played dreadful baseball recently, losing ten of the team’s last twelve games. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

All of a sudden, the Red Sox have cooled off, and now they’re throwing out Sandoval, who has just 24 innings under his belt this season. It’s win-or-go-home time for the Blue Jays if they’re going to get back to the postseason, and Cease has been strong with a 2.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Cease has allowed just 1 run in his last 22 innings. This feels like a good spot to back the Blue Jays at home with the more proven pitcher on the bump.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland is the more attractive side if the moneyline provides reasonable underdog value. Detroit has the better overall offensive and pitching statistics and has won three of its last five, but going against Cleveland after the Guardians have won all six meetings this season is difficult to justify. Bibee's 3.85 ERA and excellent 1.13 WHIP give Cleveland a viable starting-pitching path despite his poor 4-11 record, while Anderson's 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP provide less separation than Detroit's overall team numbers suggest. 

MLB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tampa Bay is the preferred side because its advantages extend well beyond the starting-pitching matchup. The Rays have won five consecutive games, own the superior offense, and possess one of the strongest overall pitching profiles in the league. They have also demonstrated an ability to win different types of games, scoring nine or more runs three times before taking consecutive low-scoring contests in Seattle. Peralta’s 5.37 ERA makes the price less comfortable than Tampa Bay’s record might suggest. However, Lopez has been even less effective, registering a 5.64 ERA and allowing 122 combined hits and walks in 75 innings. Once the starters leave, the Rays’ considerable bullpen and run-prevention advantages should become decisive.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore was able to snap their small losing streak with a win on Sunday afternoon, but they have scored one run in three of their last four games. The Orioles are 25-31 on the road this year, while the Twins are 30-27 at home. Minnesota has split their last four games, but they have scored three or fewer in three of their last five. The Twins are starting Kremer, who has allowed 1, 8, 6, 2, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts, while Rogers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the Orioles on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners have the edge on the bump with Hancock and his 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. However, the Rays continue to play the more consistent ball and deserve more love from oddsmakers. The problem is the Rays aren’t a sexy team and don’t get a lot of backing from the public, so we keep getting these soft lines. I’ll continue to back the Rays as they keep winning games, and we don’t have to lay crazy prices. Give me the Rays yet again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jays will start Shane Bieber. He also had a rough outing a couple starts ago, but otherwise has posted 3 really strong starts in his last 4 as he continues to work back into form. Bieber is a reverse-splits pitcher; lefties hit under .200 against him, and they have for several years now. That is a problem for the Phillies, whose best bats are predominantly left-handed. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Cincinnati Reds are the play in this matchup. Brady Singer’s recent run of quality starts gives the Reds a significant edge over Trevor Williams’ limited 2024 workload, and Cincinnati’s bullpen depth ensures they can protect leads late. The Reds’ 15-7 record over their last 25 games and profitability on the road contrasts sharply with Washington’s 24-34 home mark and 11-unit loss, making this a clear case of backing the better team in superior form. Singer’s ability to limit walks and generate ground balls should keep Washington’s already struggling offense off-balance, while the Reds’ .400 road slugging percentage suggests they’ll capitalize on Williams’ mistakes. Expect Cincinnati to control this game from the early innings and close it out with their superior bullpen, making the Reds the sharp side

Rating: 2 Units

Houston took the opener and are in excellent form, so backing San Diego comes with its challenges. Lambert is having a strong season with a 3.06 ERA, meaning the Astros don’t hold a clear edge on the mound. However, the Padres play at home, remain firmly in the playoff hunt, and send King to the hill with a 3.45 ERA-he’s capable of preventing another early deficit. On Friday, San Diego created plenty of chances but failed to capitalize after the midway point. If they make better use of baserunners, the hosts have every chance to flip the script in this series. Take San Diego Padres to win.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati had their winning streak snapped on Friday night in game one, but they have scored 27 runs in their last five games. The Reds are 27-28 on the road this year, while the Nationals are 24-34 at home. Washington has lost three of their last five games and they have allowed 5+ runs in all three of those losses. The Nationals are starting Alvarez, who has allowed 2, 1, 3, 3, and 5 earned runs in his last five starts, while Burns has allowed one earned run or fewer in three straight outings. Take the Reds to win here.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals. Why? St. Louis hurler Kyle Leahy has pitched exceptionally well recently, allowing one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts made this season. Conversely, Colorado starting pitcher Ryan Feltner arrives at this contest in poor form, allowing five or more earned runs in two of his last three starts made in 2026. With that said, the Cardinals are the clear side to be on in this one. I am backing the St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Lynch has been dealing this season, but he has just 46 innings under his belt. I’d love to see a larger sample size before I can trust these numbers. Also, I’ve been fading the Royals all season, and it’s worked up to this point—no reason to stop now. The Cubs continue to play good ball, and this is a chance for Gausman to make a promising first impression on his new team. He was brought here to bolster the rotation and improve their odds at a deep playoff run. I’m rolling with the Cubs and the reasonable price.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the Atlanta Braves. Why? The Atlanta Braves arrive at this contest on the heels of a seven-game winning streak, while the Miami Marlins have lost two straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played exceptional baseball at home, amassing a robust 38-20 record at Truist Park. With that said, Atlanta is the clear side to be on in this one. I am backing the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are the better team playing the more consistent ball, but I can’t get there with Peterson and his 5.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He’s been on the struggle bus all year, and that hasn’t changed since coming over from the Mets. Cease has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he’s allowed 15 hits and 4 earned runs in his last 36 innings. Cease has a 1.92 ERA and a .163 batting average allowed on the road. With a soft price, I’ll ride with the Blue Jays and the better pitcher.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Cubs to keep rolling against a struggling Dodgers squad that has lost five straight and has 8+ earned runs in three of its last five. Imanaga has been in excellent form with a 0.92 ERA across his last three starts, while Lauer has given up 3 runs in three of his last four starts. The Cubs have been better against lefties lately and their bullpen has been in excellent form. Take the Cubs to win this one at home.  

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Astros at home in this one, as they are going to face Jameson Taillon in his debut with his new team. Jameson Taillon has been in very bad shape, having given up 4+ runs in 5 of his last 7 starts and has been terrible on the road with a 7.23 road ERA. Hunter Brown has been much improved lately with just two earned runs in his last two starts and the Astros have both a superior offense and bullpen lately and are 12-2 in their last 14 games. Take the Astros to win this one at home.

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Hughes is off to a decent MLB career as he has a 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 24.1 innings with 21 strikeouts. The problem is Hughes pitches for the Rockies, a team you shouldn’t make a habit of backing. The Rays continue to pile up the wins, and Peralta should be thrilled to give a strong first impression with his new team. If anything, Peralta has a new lease on life after getting away from the Mets and going to a contender. I’ll lay the reasonable price with the Rays

Rating: 2 Units

Los Angeles comes into this matchup on a four game losing streak and they have allowed 30 runs during that span. The Dodgers are 36-21 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 32-24 at home. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Cubs are starting Assad, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 17.2 innings, while Skubal is making his first start for the Dodgers. I am going to take a shot with the Cubs in this one, as Skubal has probably been moved off of his normal schedule with the recent trade and the Dodgers are struggling right now.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view this matchup favors the Boston Red Sox. Why? Boston hurler Patrick Sandoval has compiled a 3.32 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP and 20 strikeouts, while allowing 24 hits and 6 walks in 19 innings pitched. Conversely, Chicago starting pitcher Davis Martin arrives at this contest in subpar form, allowing four or more earned runs in his last two starts made in 2026. Additionally, the Red Sox arrive at this contest on the heels of a five-game winning streak. With that said, I am backing the Boston Red sox on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

You can make an argument with the Dodgers and the low price, but I’m still siding with the Cubs and slight plus money. The Dodgers are coming off an unimpressive week, and Wrobleski’s allowed batting average jumps from a .181 at home to a .255 on the road. The Cubs are not only playing winning ball, but Boyd is coming off a July where he allowed 23 hits and 6 runs in 32.1 innings. Big statement series for the Cubs, and there should be a packed house. I’ll take the Cubs at the more favorable price.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers are going to be favored because they’re the Dodgers, but the value is with the Red Sox and the plus money. The Red Sox have 5 losses since June 25. You’re getting the more favorable price with the hottest team in baseball. Sheehan has also been subpar this season with a 4.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Despite being a rookie, Bennett has a 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. We’re getting the hotter team and the sharper pitcher. Give me the Red Sox at the underdog price.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers are having a rough week, and it’s hard to back them with confidence right now. The Astros are on the opposite end, and they have an edge on them around here with Lambert and his 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Rocker has been up and down all season, and he allowed 8 hits and 7 runs in 5.2 innings against the Astros a few weeks ago. These are two teams heading in different directions. Give me the Astros to stay hot.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh was able to snap their losing streak with a win on Saturday night, which brought their record back up to .500. The Pirates are 27-28 on the road this year, while the Reds are 25-31 at home. Cincinnati has won three of their last five games, but they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Reds are starting Burns, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, while Keller has allowed 2, 0, 3, 5, and 3 earned runs in his last five outings. Take the Reds here.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta comes into this matchup looking to complete the four game sweep and they have allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The Braves are 35-20 at home this year, while the Nationals are 32-23 on the road. Washington has lost four in a row and they have allowed 5+ runs in five straight games. The Nationals are starting Cavalli, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings, while the Braves have not announced their plans. Take the Nationals here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers come into this one with the best record in baseball, while the Red Sox rotation is giving up a .267 opponent batting average. Yamamoto on the mound in his home park with the Dodgers' depth lineup behind him is the single most reliable win-probability node in Saturday's slate. The Red Sox have been excellent in 2026, but a 16-game winning streak does not exempt any team from the reality of facing the best pitcher in baseball at the best lineup in baseball on the best team's home field. Take the Dodgers to win.

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

I like the Yankees in this one as they have a big pitching edge as Max Fried goes up against David Peterson. Fried has been much better on the road this season with a 4-2 record and 2.66 ERA, while Peterson has been horrible this season and sits on a 7.51 home ERA. The Yankees a superior bullpen to relief Max Fried and I expect them to get the job done on the road in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has pitched well recently, allowing two or fewer earned runs in two straight starts made this season. Conversely, Pittsburgh hurler Braxton Ashcraft arrives at this contest in subpar form, allowing four or more earned runs in three straight starts made in 2026. With that said, the Cincinnati Reds are the side to be on in this one. I am backing the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Suarez profile travels beautifully, the Boston bullpen is one of the hottest in the sport, the Los Angeles bullpen is limping and the number is doing more work discounting the road team than the underlying matchup justifies. Expect a low-to-medium scoring affair — think a 4-3 or 3-2 script into the seventh — with Boston’s bullpen carrying the leverage innings.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Brewers in this one, simply as a fade against a struggling Angels team that has won only once in its last seven games. Drohan has been very good on the road for the Brewers with a 3.16 ERA, while Ryan Johnson has been terrible for the Angels with a 7.34 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The Brewers also have both a better offense and a better bullpen and I expect them to get the job done in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

St. Louis picked up a much needed win on Wednesday night in game three and they will try for the series split here. The Cardinals are 28-31 at home this year, while the Cubs are 31-25 on the road. Chicago has won three of their last five games and they have scored 7+ runs in four of those five. The Cubs are starting Assad, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 13.2 innings, while Pallante has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. Take the Cubs on the road here.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays. Why? Tampa Bay starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has performed at a high level recently, allowing one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts made in 2026. Additionally, the Rays have played exceptional baseball at home compiling a 38-16 win-loss record. The data clearly indicates that Tampa Bay is the side to be on in this one. I am backing the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

These are two teams heading in different directions as the Red Sox have been on fire over the last month or so and the A’s are folding like a beach chair. Jump has hit a rookie wall, allowing 25 hits and 15 earned runs in his last 17 innings. The A’s have lost 6 straight games Jump has pitched. Bennett is dealing, and that includes giving up 19 hits and 5 runs in his last 26.1 innings. The Red Sox have won 5 straight games Bennett has pitched, and he has a 2.10 ERA and a .217 allowed batting average on the road. You can argue the Red Sox should be steeper favorites. Give me the road team.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the New York Yankees. Why? New York starting pitcher Max Fried pitched at a high level in his most recent outing, allowing zero earned runs, while scattering one hit and one walk across five innings in the Yankees 2-0 defeat of the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this week, while Chicago hurler Noah Schultz has struggled recently, allowing four or more earned runs in three of his last six starts made this season. Having stated that, the Yankees are the clear side to be on in this contest. I am backing the New York Yankees on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Braves have turned things around over the last week, and Perez has been strong this season with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I’m not in the business of backing the Mets, the most underwhelming team in the league. Thornton also has just 23.1 innings for his MLB career, and I simply need a larger sample size before I show him any attention. You can make a strong argument that the Braves should be steeper favorites. This line has to be one of the bigger value bets on Monday’s MLB card. Give me the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the White Sox in a bounce back spot at home with a red-hot Sean Burke on the mound, who has given up one run or less in five of his last six starts. On the flip side, Hunter Brown has been in a big slump for the Astros, having given up 13 runs across his last three starts. The White Sox have a better bullpen and have been averaging 7 runs per game against righties in their last 10 games, so take them to win this one at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boston Red Sox have been the hottest team in baseball as of late and will continue their push in Game 2 of this series on Saturday.  Sonny Gray’s elite recent form, a cold Toronto offense, and a scorching Boston home ledger make the Red Sox the confident side. Look for Boston to lean on their elite arm to do the job, leading to a victory against a divisional foe.

Rating: 2 Units

The pick is the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline at -138. This is a straightforward play on the better team, the better home starter, and a documented 19-14 trend against losing clubs, all lined up against an Athletics team that has lost 19 of 24 and sends a homer-prone lefty to the mound. Expect Minnesota to strike early, let Matthews work comfortably at home, and hand a lead to a bullpen trending upward. The moneyline is the recommended play, though confident bettors could consider the run line given Lopez’s struggles. 

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Blue Jays have been struggling mightily lately, having won only once in their last 8 games and their offense has fallen off a cliff, having scored two runs or less in each of their last five games. Bieber has been shaky at best so far this season with a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, while Seymour is not going deep into the games for the Rays and their bullpen has been the 4th-best in baseball after the all-star break. Take the Rays to win this one on the road.

MLB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Take the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philadelphia is hitting .230 with a .294 on-base percentage against left-handed starters and is 8-12 at home in that spot for a 7.5-unit loss. Aaron Nola has a 6.50 ERA and a .570 slugging allowed across nine home starts, and he now draws a road lineup hitting .274 with a .446 slugging mark. Lauer’s ERA is ugly, but he is the one pitcher tonight with a matchup working for him.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup favors the Boston Red Sox. Why? The Red Sox arrive at this contest on a rather impressive 14-game winning streak. Additionally, Boston hurler Jake Bennett has pitched exceptionally well recently, allowing one or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts made in 2026. The data clearly indicates that Boston is the side to be on in this one. I am backing the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Brewers in this one at home in a decent price, as they have won four straight and have been one of the best home teams in baseball. The Mets are going for a bullpen game and their relievers have been struggling mightily lately, ranking just 28th in the last 10 games. Sproat has been in good form for the Brewers, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.