Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup favors the New York Yankees. Why? New York starting pitcher Ryan Weathers enters this contest with 28 strikeouts (14th in MLB) in 21 innings pitched this season, illustrating his ability to shut down quality lineups. Conversely, Kansas City’s Cole Ragans has struggled at times this season which is concerning facing a strong New York Yankees lineup. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the New York Yankees on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago’s bats have been on a tear over the last few games, and the timing couldn’t be better with the Mets looking shaky defensively. New York hasn’t been able to get much going at the plate lately, and their pitching staff has been under pressure as well. The Mets are set to send left-hander David Peterson to the mound. He’s still looking for his first win of the season, sitting at 0–3 with a 6.41 ERA. Chicago will counter with Javier Assad, who’s 1–1 but has struggled too, posting an 8.10 ERA so far this season. With both starters trying to settle in, this game could come down to which team cleans up the mistakes and gets timely hits. 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s a surprise to see the Cardinals as underdogs when you consider they’re playing the better baseball right now. The Astros are probably the better team on paper but they haven’t shown it this weekend. The Astros pitching staff also continues to stink to high heaven. Burrows has been one of those who has stunk up the joint. Maybe things turn around at some point but the Astros have the worst pitching staff in baseball right now. It’s awful. Give me the Cardinals and the more favorable price.

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego is the better team in this matchup, and it will show from the opening minutes in Saturday's game. The Padres are better on both sides of the ball and will control this matchup from the opening minutes. San Diego has the superior pitcher on the mound, and that will be the difference in this game. Look for the Padres to do the job as they get another victory today on the road in Los Angeles.

Rating: 2 Units

These two teams have gone in different directions to start the season, with Atlanta rolling and Philadelphia struggling. Both teams will look to set the tone in this matchup early on Saturday night. Both teams have elite pitchers on the mound, but the Atlanta offense will be the difference. Look for the Atlanta Braves to do the job on both sides of the dish as they get a big win against a divisional foe Saturday night in Philadelphia.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins have the pitching advantage in this game, as Taj Bradley, who has only two earned runs in his three starts this season, goes up against Andrew Abbott, who has 4+ earned runs in two of his three starts. On top of that, Cincinnati also has the worst offense in baseball so this sets up as a nice bounce-back spot for the Twins. Take the Twins on the moneyline in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one. I just don’t trust the Blue Jays offensively right now as the offense stalled in a big way in the Brewers series and I think the Blue Jays are a team that we have to put on the back burner until they wake up. Arizona has been finding ways to win in every series so far and I think they get it done here as well. Give me Arizona in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Right when it looked like the Mariners were turning the corner, they got swept by the Padres and their pitching stunk up the joint. I understand coming back home and throwing out an all-star in Gilbert. However, Gibert has been hittable through 23.2 frames with a 4.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. deGrom has been sharper with a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and he has 22 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. I love getting plus money with aces and we’re getting that with a Hall of Famer in deGrom. It’s hard to pass up. I have to side with the Rangers.

Rating: 2 Units

In my opinion, this matchup favors the New York Yankees. Why? Cam Schlittler has been outstanding through three starts, pairing a 2.49 ERA with 30 strikeouts and a 0.74 WHIP across 21.2 innings pitched, giving New York a clear edge on the mound. Michael Wacha has been excellent for Kansas City, but the Royals enter this contest on a four‑game losing streak and continue to struggle on the road in 2026. The Yankees are the clear side to be on in this matchup. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the New York Yankees on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago has the healthier lineup, the better starter on paper and the home-field edge. Cabrera's 1.62 ERA and tight command profile puts the Cubs in position to control this game from the first pitch, and Senga's road numbers against a disciplined lineup like Chicago's make it difficult to expect New York to stay close.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays have won both games of this series having scored 8 runs in each one and there is no reason to not keep backing them up with Matz on the mound. He has a mediocre ERA but a sub-one WHIP and the Rays’ bullpen is no longer the worst in baseball. They also have a superior offense, scoring almost two runs per game more than the White Sox, who have a measly .192 batting average this season. Take the Rays to win this one on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers. Why? Shohei Ohtani has pitched exceptionally well to start the 2026 regular season. In two starts made, Ohtani has pitched 12 scoreless innings with a 0.75 WHIP. Clay Holmes has been effective for New York, but the Mets enter this game on a six‑game losing streak and continue to struggle to generate consistent offense. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Elder takes the mound for the Braves and has looked great this season, compared to an awful 2025 campaign, while Paddack has been terrible for the Marlins. Atlanta has the 4th-best bullpen in baseball, the second-best batting average and the 4th-best offense, so I expect them to win this one at home. Lay the juice and take the Braves on the moneyline for the bounce-back win.

Rating: 2 Units

New York comes into this matchup after losing six of their last seven games and they have allowed 5+ runs in five straight. The Yankees are 4-4 at home this year, while the Angels are 6-6 on the road. Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have scored 7+ in four of their last five. LA is starting Kochanowicz, who has been very good in his last two starts, while Gil struggled in his first outing. I like how Kochanowicz is looking right now.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have now won four straight but they have a pitching disadvantage as they send Jack Flaherty on the mound, who has not been good this season and was torched in his only start in Detroit against the Royals, having given up 8 runs. On the flip side, Ligo has been excellent for the Royals but was also torched in his three starts against the Tigers last season. The Tigers also have a better bullpen and a better offense, so I expect them to handle business at home in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Guardians here. I just think that Cantillo is the better starting option in this game and if anything I think the prime time for St. Louis to get the win was on Monday but here, I think the Guardians keep their foot on the gas against McGreevy, who for me is one of the weakest starters in the Cardinals’ rotation. Give me Cleveland.

Rating: 2 Units

Gausman is the most trustworthy variable in this game, and backing the starter with the superior command profile, lower ERA, and better walk rate at plus money on the road is the correct play. Misiorowski's nine walks through 16.1 innings create enough volatility to keep Toronto in this game, and the Blue Jays have enough individual contributors through Guerrero and Giménez to generate the runs needed to win behind their ace.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates destroyed the Nats yesterday by 16-5 and have the pitching advantage today, as the red-hot Mitch Keller goes up against Miles Mikolas. Keller’s two of his three starts this season had been shutouts, while Mikolas has 19 earned runs in three starts so far. On top of that, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball and have been slightly weaker against righties. Lay the juice and take the Pirates to win this one at home.

Rating: 2 Units

We know what Eovaldi is capable of when he’s right but he hasn’t been good through 14.2 innings and I’m not excited to get behind the struggles on the road. The Athletics are coming off a strong week, the pitching has picked up, and I’m going to assume Severino will figure things out with more reps under his belt. Two capable pitchers who are due for bounce-back performances, but we’re getting plus money with the home team. The A’s are also coming off a strong series. Give me the Athletics and the plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins got swept by the Tigers and scored just 3 total runs and Eury Perez does not look good so far with a 5+ ERA and was torched by the Braves last season with 8 earned runs in two starts. On the flip side, the Braves have the best bullpen in baseball and the fourth-best offense and are even better against righties. Holmes had a shutout start against the Marlins last season, so take the Braves to win this one at home.

Rating; 2 Units

Washington comes into this series after a very nice series sweep against the Brewers, but they have allowed 6+ runs in three of their last five games. The Nationals are 6-3 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 4-2 at home. Pittsburgh has won three of their last five games, but we will see how they respond to that tough loss on Sunday. The Pirates have a big advantage with Skenes on the mound, while Washington has one of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros are a tough sell given their pitching situation. The Astros are horrendous right now and Burrows has played a role in the disaster. Burrows has a 5.63 ERA and 1.75 WHIP through 16 innings. The Mariners have used this series to find their bats and this talented lineup is hard to stop once they get going. I have little use for the Astros and these issues on the bump. Give me the Mariners at home with the quick turnaround.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, Atlanta’s more reliable offense and elite starting pitching (Chris Sale) make the Atlanta Braves the clear side to be on in this contest. Cleveland starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has shown upside on the mound this season, but his recent outings have been short which increases Cleveland’s reliance on the team’s bullpen. With that said, I am backing the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nationals have won both games in this series and the Brewers have now lost four straight, having scored just 6 runs in that span. They put Woodruff on the mound, who has 7 earned runs in his two starts this season and things are not looking good against a red-hot Washington offense that averages 5.7 runs per game. Littell has been good for the Nats and was excellent against the Brewers last season so I will take the hotter team to keep rolling for good plus money. Take the Nationals on the moneyline.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles will close out this series with a win on Sunday afternoon as they have a strong pitcher on the mound and the top of their lineup has been productive to start the year. Povich has started 20 plus games for the Orioles over the last two seasons, and had a strong showing in his opener this year while allowing just four hits over five plus innings. Houser is on the mound for the Giants, and they have lost in each of his first two starts this season. Houser gave up nine hits in his last start, and Henderson and Ward will jump all over him early.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants have the edge in this game because they’re playing well offensively, averaging five runs per game in their last three games. Even though they haven’t been great against right-handers, they’re going up against Bassitt, who hasn’t looked good on the mound so far, giving up 10 runs in two starts, failing to get past the fourth inning in both games. With Baltimore’s bullpen also struggling, expect the Giants to have their way offensively in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have been disappointing up to this point but the season is still young. There’s time for the Royals to turn it around. The White Sox were supposed to suck and well, they’ve wasted no time sucking. The White Sox can’t hit the baseball and the pitching staff is still rough despite being decent as of late. Wacha has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball through 13 innings, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. This feels like a spot where the Royals can get a much-needed victory. I’ll lay the juice with the Royals at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is the far better team in this matchup and will get back to its winning ways on Saturday. Miami has the superior arm on the bump this season and the better offense. Look for the Miami Marlins to do the work on both sides of the ball against a bad Detroit team. Take Miami on Saturday to do the job and get the win on the road in Detroit.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Atlanta here. I’m not really sold on either one of these starting pitching options if I’m being 100% honest, but I feel like Atlanta has the more potent lineup as you never really know when the small ball act for Cleveland is going to bite them in the butt. Atlanta has shown some power early on, and that they’re a far different club than the one that struggled out of the gate in 2025. Give me Atlanta here.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is the stronger side in this matchup based on the numbers provided. The Marlins have the better overall record at 8-5 and have gone 3-2 over their last five games, including two strong wins over Cincinnati. They also hold clear advantages in batting average, ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Detroit, on the other hand, has lost five straight games and has struggled on the mound with a 4.40 ERA. While Montero has shown efficiency, the overall team profile favors Miami, making the Marlins the better play on the moneyline.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are coming off back-to-back wins and put Imanaga on the mound who bounced back after a terrible first start to the season and he was almost unhittable in his two starts against the Pirates last season. On the flip side, Mlodzinski has been decent this season but I cannot trust him on the road in this spot and the Pirates have a slightly weaker offense. Take the Cubs on the moneyline to get the job done at home in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup leans toward New York’s ability to control the game behind Nolan McLean’s quality pitching (good career numbers at Citi Field) and a Mets offense that has been far more efficient offensively relative to the Diamondbacks in 2026. Arizona starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez opened the season well, but the Diamondbacks limited offensive ceiling and road struggles tilt this matchup in the Mets direction. Having stated that, I am backing the New York Mets on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Reds vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -130 home favorites. The Reds saw their five-game winning streak getting snapped but they now have Rhett Lowder on the mound who has just two earned runs in two starts this season. The Reds also have the league’s 5th-best bullen to come after him and allow just 3.3 runs per game off their opponents this season, so I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Reds on the moneyline for plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have been red-hot with five consecutive wins and have just four earned runs in their last four games. They have the 5th-best bullpen in baseball and are facing Eury Perez who will be on the mound for the Marlins and he has not been looking good in his two starts this season, having 7 earned runs. I expect the Reds to keep rolling against a struggling pitcher and I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Reds on the moneyline for plus money.

Rating: 2 Units

McGreevy's WHIP advantage over Mikolas is the single largest individual gap in this game, and the dollar-split divergence from Washington's ticket volume confirms the analytically supported side is the Cardinals.

Rating: 2 Units

Maybe last night’s win gives the Giants a shot in the arm and leads to a run. I still need to see more though to get on board. It also doesn’t help that Mahle has been a disaster through nine innings, and this Phillies lineup isn’t one where guys usually find their footing. Nola is coming off a strong showing against the Rockies and we know what he’s capable of when he’s right. Nola has all-star caliber stuff when he’s in good form. The price is cheap. I’m rolling with the Phillies on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have won both games in this series but the are putting Bradish on the mound who is coming off a bad start against the Pirates but he was excellent last season so this is a nice bounce-back spot for him. Burke also gave up 3 runs in his previous start for the White Sox and the Orioles have a better offense, better bullpen and look better overall so far, so unless the White Sox show me different, I will keep fading them. Take the Orioles on the moneyline.

Rating: 2 Units

In my view, this matchup leans toward Cleveland’s ability to control the game behind Joey Cantillo’s pitching efficiency and a Guardians bullpen that helped keep the Kansas City bats in check in Tuesday’s game. Cantillo enters this contest with a 3.00 ERA and matches up well against a Royals lineup that has been inconsistent offensively through the first 11 games played this season. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Cleveland Guardians on the moneyline in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers and these inflated prices will hurt them eventually but right now they’re rolling out of the gate and tough to bet against. The Blue Jays should be motivated for this series but that didn’t help them last night. In 51 at-bats against current Jays, Yamamoto is allowing a .196 batting average and .212 OBP and has 13 strikeouts. Yamamoto was key to beating Toronto in the World Series. I have to side with the Dodgers in this spot 

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home with Crochet on the mound. The Red Sox are also in desperate need of a win to stop a brutal start to the season. I get it. However, the Brewers are playing the better ball overall, hitting the ball well and Misiorowski has been money through a handful of starts. An all-star last year and off to a strong start this season. The Brewers and the plus money are one of the best value bets on Tuesday’s MLB card. I’ll take it.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay was able to get the win on Monday in their first game back at Tropicana Field and they have won three in a row. The Rays are 1-0 at home this year, while the Cubs are 1-3 on the road. Chicago has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 12 runs in their last two. The Cubs are going with Assad, who is very inconsistent, while Rasmussen has been very solid through two starts. Take the Rays to get another win here.

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle's pitching staff has been genuinely elite as a collective unit in the early schedule. A 2.72 team ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts through the first portion of the season represent one of the most dominant staff-wide profiles in baseball, and that depth gives the Mariners the ability to bridge from Gilbert to a bullpen that has been one of the most reliable run-prevention units in the American League. Even on a night where Gilbert is not at his very best, the Seattle pitching chain has enough quality pieces behind him to limit damage and keep Texas from putting up crooked numbers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 12 games as favorites following a win. While the Nationals have won each of their last five games against NL Central opponents following a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee comes into this series with a 7-2 record and their offense continues to produce, as they have scored 5+ runs in four of their last five games. The Brewers are 2-1 on the road and they are starting Woodruff, who pitched five solid innings in his first start. Boston is 1-2 at home and they have lost four of their last five games overall. The Red Sox are starting Bello, who allowed eight hits and six earned runs against the Astros in his first start. Milwaukee is rolling right now and they have the better starting pitcher, so take the Brewers to get the win here.

Rating: 2 Units

McCullers was solid in his season debut and it will be interesting to see if he can build on it. McCullers has shown he can be an all-star caliber pitcher when right. The Athletics were supposed to be a fun, high-scoring team this season and while the season is still young, they’ve been anything but. Until the Athletics start stringing something together, they’re a tough sell. I’m going to side with the Astros to keep things rolling

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have the edge in this game because they’ve played well offensively in recent games. Even though they’re batting .200 against right-handers, they’re going up against Leiter, who struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 12 runs in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in his last two home starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Reds. Texas will have a hard time keeping up with the Reds because Burns has been dominant on the mound, going back to last season, giving up only two runs in his last 17 innings pitched. With Cincinnati’s bullpen also playing well, expect them to keep Texas’ offense in check. Take Cincinnati on the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re getting a cheap price with the Braves, who are playing better baseball and that’s the direction I’m going to lean. Elder hasn’t been great over the last two seasons, but he looked sharp in his season debut. Either way, the Braves have caught fire over the last week, while the Diamondbacks have been badly outplayed in this series and have scored a combined 3 runs in their last 3 games. I’ll gladly take the Braves and this soft price

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers shut out the Cardinals yesterday with a 4-0 score and are putting Flaherty on the mound today who has been historically better at home. On the flip side, Dustin May takes the mound for the Cardinals and he was torched in his first start of the season by the Rays with 6 earned runs and has been playing historically worse on the road. On top of that, the Cardinals have been weaker against right-handed pitching this season, so give me the Tigers on the moneyline in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has the edge based on pitching and overall consistency through the first week. The Braves have limited baserunners and controlled innings, which has helped maintain a strong run differential. The lineup has also produced enough across multiple spots to support the strong pitching performances. Arizona has played well at home and has shown some offensive production, but inconsistency in both pitching and hitting with runners on base will hurt the D-Backs.

Rating: 2 Units

Maybe the Athletics can find their footing in their home debut, but this squad didn’t light things up at home last season. The A’s are also in horrible form and haven’t been able to hit the baseball. Javier is a better pitcher than what he showed in his season debut and I expect a bounce-back performance. The Astros are also showing more signs of life offensively. The fact this price is this soft is disrespectful toward the Astros. I’ll roll with the road team even if it’s more of a fade of the Athletics than anything.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Reds vs Rangers Prediction, the Rangers are coming as home favorites. Both teams are coming off defeats in their previous games where they each had 8 earned runs. The Reds’ offense has been terrible this season, averaging just 2.8 runs per game with a .187 batting average and are even weaker against left-handed pitching, with just 2.2 runs per game. They facing a Rangers squad that is even better against righties and has the 4th-best bullpen ERA in baseball and will be playing their home opener for the season, so I expect them to have extra incentive and effort. Take the Rangers to win this one on the moneyline.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Yankees here. I just think the Yankees are playing the more consistent baseball through the first week of the season and I think Schlittler has the edge here as the Yankees have had a lot of success historically against George Kirby. I think New York takes care of business here so give me the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles have talent but the bats have been quiet through 3 of their first 4 games. When right, deGrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball so I don’t expect a breakthrough here. Also, Eflin was dog water last season with his 5.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIp and .304 allowed batting average. In 30.1 home innings, Eflin had a 5.93 ERA and .323 allowed batting average. No thanks. You’re also not going to get deGrom at prices this cheap assuming he stays effective and healthy. Give me the Rangers and the cheap price behind their ace.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Braves here. I just think that Chris Sale is the far better starting option here and while Severino was better on the road last season, I’m not sure how much I truly trust the Athletics to string back-to-back solid performances like what we saw Tuesday. The A’s haven’t been terrible against lefties, but Chris Sale is a whole different story. Give me the Braves.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Tigers here. I think that the first game of the series was a bit of an anomaly as Detroit’s bullpen has been a lot more solid than what they showed in that opener and I think this is a good bounce back spot here. Mize was a really reliable option in Detroit’s rotation last season, and Pfaadt had more than his fair share of issues at home. I’ll side with Detroit in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cardinals’ pitching staff has been getting rocked out of the gate and now they’re throwing out Pallante, who was awful last season. Pallante had a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 162 innings. Pallante had 62 walks to go with 111 strikeouts. Not great folks. Senga is coming off a successful season where he was even better on the road, where he had a 2.65 ERA and .207 allowed batting average. The Cardinals are a tough sell until they get their pitching staff in order. Give me the Mets and the reasonable price.

Rating: 3 Units

Taillon controls the Angels lineup through five or six innings, Soriano keeps it competitive but allows just enough damage, and a depleted LA bullpen gives up the decisive run or two late.  Chicago is the play based on starting pitching matchup history, bullpen depth disparity, and lineup balance.

Rating: 3 Units

I’m on the Braves here. Until the Athletics show me something it’s hard to give this team any sort of credit and Aaron Civale is one of my least favorite MLB starters to back whenever I see him on the mound. It’ll be interesting to see who Atlanta sends out here, but I’m not sure it matters. Give me Atlanta.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington has started the season by winning three of their first four games and they have scored 19 runs in their last two. The Nationals are starting Poulin, who is expected to be an opener. Philadelphia has lost three games in a row and they have allowed 26 runs during that span. The Phillies have one of the worst team ERA’s through four games and they are turning to Painter, who is making his MLB debut.

Rating: 3 Units

The Orioles have talent but the bats have been quiet through 3 of their first 4 games. When right, deGrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball so I don’t expect a breakthrough here. Also, Eflin was dog water last season with his 5.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIp and .304 allowed batting average. In 30.1 home innings, Eflin had a 5.93 ERA and .323 allowed batting average. No thanks. You’re also not going to get deGrom at prices this cheap assuming he stays effective and healthy. Give me the Rangers and the cheap price behind their ace

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego leans on Walker Buehler at Petco Park against a Giants club that has stumbled to an 0-3 start and already leans heavily on Logan Webb when he’s not even on the mound tonight, while Landen Roupp makes a far less proven road turn and a San Francisco bullpen missing several arms could be stressed again by a deep Padres infield core headlined by Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth; with home field, the slightly better early form at 1-2, and the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup all tilting toward San Diego

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees’ revamped core with Judge, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt has historically matched up well with Seattle’s right-handed-heavy staff, and Judge in particular has produced elite numbers in this park, which helps offset the cross-country travel and pitcher-friendly environment. With Max Fried now atop the Yankees’ rotation to neutralize the heart of the Mariners’ order and the price sitting just off a pick’em, the slight discount on the hotter and deeper lineup makes New York the side, even with some early-season variance risk baked in.

Rating: 2 Units

Historically, Alex Bregman has hammered Angels pitching over a huge career sample and the Cubs swept the Angels 3-0 last season, outscoring them comfortably, whereas Mike Trout has actually posted a muted slash line against the Cubs despite his superstar pedigree. Layering that on top of tonight's Edward Cabrera vs Ryan Johnson matchup—an experienced, high-strikeout arm facing a righty-leaning lineup against a younger right-hander still settling in, in a hitter-influenced park—tilts this firmly toward the home side.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta’s 2-0 start, powered by a core of Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies, is a sharp contrast to an 0-2 Athletics club still searching for consistency from a rotation built around arms like Luis Severino, Aaron Civale and Jeffrey Springs. Even with Spencer Strider and Sean Murphy sidelined, the Braves’ everyday lineup and deeper bullpen profile as a clear tier above an A’s offense leaning on Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and a young outfield group, especially on the road in a park where Atlanta has historically punished visiting pitching. 

Rating: 2 Units

Miami’s unbeaten start and home comfort at loanDepot park stand out against a White Sox club still searching for its first win and already dealing with pitching attrition after losing Mike Vasil for the season and seeing Kyle Teel sidelined early, while the Marlins’ rotation—headlined by a healthier Sandy Alcantara and supported by a deeper bullpen—remains largely intact despite Adam Mazur’s absence, and given Miami’s recent success against Chicago in this ballpark plus contact bats like Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez who have previously hurt Sox pitching, the combination of form, health edge, and venue justifies laying the moderate price.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seattle Mariners have the better pitcher on the mound in this matchup, and their offense will continue to come around. Look for Seattle to jump on Cleveland early Saturday night, leading to the victory. The Mariners are going to control this game from the opening minutes Saturday night, leading to their second victory of the season. Take Seattle to do the job on both sides of the dish Saturday, as they get a 2nd consecutive win with another victory against Cleveland.

Rating: 2 Units

At this point in the season, approach matters more than raw talent, and Baltimore clearly has the edge there. The Orioles’ ability to string together quality at-bats gives them a higher offensive floor, while Minnesota’s reliance on power makes them more volatile, especially against a disciplined team. If the Twins don’t hit multiple home runs, it’s hard to see them keeping pace over nine innings.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tight matchup, but the edge goes to Philadelphia due to offensive versatility and star power. While deGrom is capable of dominating, early-season pitch limits could shorten his outing, bringing the bullpen into play earlier than ideal for Texas. On the other side, Nola’s consistency and ability to work deeper into games give Philadelphia more stability. Combined with a lineup that can score in different ways, the Phillies have the edge over nine innings.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Guardians vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as home favorites. Both teams were very good last season and Seattle made it all the way to the ALCS Finals where they lost to Toronto. Cleveland had the third-best bullpen in the league last season but they were also the second-worst hitting team against right-handed pitching. Bibee has also been significantly weaker on the road for the Guardians with a 5.17 road ERA, while Gilbert has been excellent last season and elite at home with a 2.24 home ERA. Take the Mariners to win their season opener in front of their home crowd.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they don’t string losses together, and Yamamoto has been money this season. Yamamoto had an 0.99 WHIP on the season and through 19.2 postseason innings, he’s allowed 13 hits and 4 earned runs. In 105.2 road innings, Yamamoto has a 2.13 ERA and .168 allowed batting average, numbers that are better than what he’s done at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers haven’t lost two straight games in these playoffs, so I get it. However, the Blue Jays continue to swing a hot bat, hit good pitching and don’t panic when they get down in the scoreboard. Gausman is also the veteran who stood tall when needed, and that includes allowing 10 hits and 4 runs in 18 postseason innings. Gausman has allowed 39 hits and 14 runs in his last 50.1 innings overall. As great as Yamamoto has been, we sometimes forget he’s just in his second season, so who knows how he’ll handle the pressure of a moment this big. The Blue Jays are in such a zone offensively, I can’t turn down the plus money in game 2.

Rating: 2 Units

In the postseason, Snell has been electric – going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and a 0.52 WHIP. This will be his second start against the Blue Jays this year; back on August 9th, he threw 5 scoreless innings and struck out 10. For the Blue Jays, they’ll counter with Trey Yesavage who enters with a 2-1 record, 4.20 and a 1.13 WHIP this postseason. In this matchup, the Dodgers have the advantage on the mound and a slight advantage at the plate, averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to the Blue Jays 4.9 this season. Based on Snell’s recent pitching performances, he should be able to cool down this Blue Jays offense and the Dodgers will get to Yesavage early on and take Game 1, making the Dodgers my best bet of the day.

Rating: 2 Units

I am still trying to figure out how Game 3 went the way it did. Kirby is the ace of the Mariners staff, and there is no way he should have given up 8 runs. I am willing to hammer the bet that that won’t happen twice. As for Bieber, he had been struggling and his stuff did not look great, so of course he had the best start of his season in Game 3. Again, I am betting that doesn’t happen twice. Both teams will be quick to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble today, knowing both that there is no tomorrow if they lose, and also that they have several days to rest up before the next series anyway. I am backing the Kirby bounce-back, the Bieber regression, and the fact that the Seattle bullpen is way better than the Toronto pen. Give me the Mariners to win this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jays lost both home games in this series, with Yesavage pitching in one of them, and got torched with 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work. On the flip side, Gilbert has the starter for Seattle in that game and had just two earned runs, and he has been elite overall this season. Seattle also has the better bullpen and are slightly better against right-handed pitching, so I expect them to win this one and advance to the World Series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays finally found their offense in their game 3 victory and if that carries over we’ll be going back to Canada evened up. However, Castillo has been money lately, allowing 18 hits and 8 runs in his last 35.1 innings. The Mariners have won 6 straight games with Castillo on the mound. Castillo has a 2.60 ERA and .192 allowed batting average in 100.1 home innings. Scherzer is a Hall of Famer and has been in endless big games, but he’s allowed 24 hits and 17 runs in his last 15 innings. In 35 road innings, Scherzer has a 5.91 ERA and .252 allowed batting average. At 41 years old, Scherzer is a shell of himself. I’ll side with the Mariners for a bounce back performance.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto was a force to be reckoned with at Rogers Centre against the Yankees, but despite having everything in their favor, find themselves in a 2-0 hole heading to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle has had much better results from their pitching staff at T-Mobile Park at home as opposed to on the road, and Kirby is no exception in that department. He posted a 5.16 ERA on the road but recorded a 3.29 ERA at home over 76.1 innings of work this season. The Blue Jays weren’t as prolific offensively on the road as they were at home, and that could be a problem here. Bieber is still trying to get into form and struggled against the Yankees in his first postseason outing. With a world of momentum behind them, look for Seattle to come up with the win here.

Rating: 2 Units

In two postseason starts, Freddy Peralta has had his ups and downs, going 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA across 9.2 innings. He’ll need to be careful against this Dodgers lineup that’s averaging 4.7 runs per game this postseason. Los Angeles will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA in two playoff starts. Offensively, the Brewers are averaging 3.8 runs per game this postseason – well below their seasonal average of 5.0. If Peralta struggles a bit early on, I’m not too worried about this game getting out of hand. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been dominant this postseason, posting a 1.42 ERA through the playoffs. The one thing the Brewers need to do in this game is get to Yamamoto early on and make him throw a ton of pitches. The Dodgers bullpen has been their weakest link all season, and in the postseason, they hold a 5.91 bullpen ERA. Taking everything into consideration, the Brewers will be in a good position to even this series at one before they head to Los Angeles for Game 3. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is an incredible value for the best team in the National League. The Dodgers are a popular bet; they have brand recognition, big names, and won the World Series last season. But this is not last season, and none of those things mattered when the Brewers swept the Dodgers across six games in the regular season. Milwaukee is loaded with talent, and they were able to shake off the rust in their recent series against the Cubs just in time to advance. The Dodgers have a few quality starting pitchers, but their bullpen is not very strong. They finished the regular season just 17th in the league in team ERA at 3.95, while Milwaukee had the second-best ERA in the league at 3.58. We get the better team here at home with plus money; the Brewers are the play.

Rating: 2 Units

The entire betting public is going to flood to the Toronto side, and they will do it primarily because the Mariners used so many pitchers in Friday night’s 15-inning affair. But let’s take a breath here—that does not matter to any of the regular bullpen arms, who had a day off Saturday and are all fully ready to go. Yes, it burned Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, but Bryce Miller is just fine as a starter, and while he is working on short rest, he only threw 55 pitches in his last outing, so there are no worries there. Let’s not overreact to the pitching crisis that really isn’t. (And, by the way, if Seattle can win just one game in Toronto will a couple of those stud starters waiting in the wings back in Seattle? Yeah, they can win this series.) So why will Seattle win? First, this team is hot, and they believe they are going to win. Second, the core of their lineup has had success against Kevin Gausman in their career. Suarez, Arozarena, Raleigh, and Naylor all are hitting near or above .300 against him, and Rozy, Suarez, Julio, and Cal have all hit homers against him (Cal actually has 3). I think Seattle will find success. On the other side, the hot Blue Jay lineup is a real factor, but 4 solid innings from Miller before handing it off to the bullpen is a perfectly winnable formula. I like Seattle to win this game, and I love fading the public on it too. We are getting a price that is too good to turn down. Give me the Mariners to steal Game 1 on the road.

Rating; 2 Units

It’s win or go home, as the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners get ready to take the field for Game 5 of the NLDS. Tarik Skubal will make his second start of the series for Detroit, looking to change his fortunes against Seattle. In Game 2, Skubal was sharp, allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 9 through 7 innings pitched. However, on the season, Skubal struggled against the Mariners, going 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA over 3 starts. For the Mariners, George Kirby will get the start after pitching a no-decision in Game 1 against the Tigers, in which he allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Kirby had an up-and-down season, going 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA, and posted a 1-0 record with a 5.40 ERA against Detroit this year.

Rating: 2 Units

Glasnow will take the mound. Glasnow appeared in Game 1 of the series but only for 1.2 innings, where he gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. I imagine the idea for today is that Glasnow will go much deeper into the game, especially considering the Dodgers’ bullpen has given up 7 runs over the past 2 games. Luckily for LA, Glasnow has given up 1 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. He pitched once early in the season against the Phillies, where he only played for 2 innings while giving up 5 runs on 2 hits. Walks have been a concern for Glasnow all year. Take the Phillies to even the series.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mariners have won five of their last six road games, while the Tigers have lost seven straight home games. Seattle has the edge here because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers, and they’re going up against Flaherty, who was shaky on the mound in recent starts, especially at home, where he gave up 13 runs in his last three starts. Detroit won’t be as successful offensively because they’re batting under .200 against right-handers, and they’re going up against Gilbert, who has been great on the mound in recent starts, giving up only seven runs in his last five starts. He gave up four runs in his last three road starts and will keep Detroit’s offense in check. Take Seattle on the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be his first playoff outing with Philadelphia. He was 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against Los Angeles during the regular season. Overall, he is 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers. Snell, 32, is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 13 postseason appearances (11 starts). He defeated the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card round when he allowed two runs and four hits over seven innings in Los Angeles' 10-5 victory. Snell is 1-3 with a 3.41 ERA in seven career outings (all starts) against Philadelphia.

Rating: 2 Units

The pitching matchup is Tarik Skubal vs Luis Castillo. Do I expect the Mariners to hit Skubal? No, I really don’t. But it is worth mentioning that the M’s tagged Skubal for 4 runs when they faced him in July. My problem here is that Skubal can’t cover all 9 innings himself (well, probably not, anyway). The Tigers have a tired and overworked bullpen already, and they had to throw everyone in Saturday’s 11-inning affair. On the other side, Castillo has been electric over the past month, allowing only a total of 3 runs in his last 4 starts. The Mariners threw everybody also, but the difference is that they had the week off, and all those guys can easily turn around and go again Sunday. I look for both starters to be outstanding, posting a ton of zeroes, but I ultimately see Seattle winning this one in the late innings against a gassed Detroit bullpen. Give me the Mariners on the Money Line.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Blue Jays are coming as -120 home favorites. Both pitchers are not coming into this matchup in good form, as Gausman has back-to-back games with 4 earned runs, while Gil for the Yankees has 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. But Gausman has been very effective against the Yankees with season, having just one earned runs in his last two starts against them, while Gil has been weaker on the road for the Yankees, with a 4.38 road ERA. The Jays also have a better bullpen and more rested arms, and I like them to get the job done at home in Game 1 of this series.

Rating: 2 Units

This matchup is going to be interesting as a pair of young arms high in potential and low in big-league experience square off with each team’s respective seasons hanging in the balance. Both arms were good in limited big league innings and averaged better than a whiff per frame on the year. With that in mind, the leash on both guys isn’t going to be long in a winner-take-all all scenario. That means you have to lean on the bullpen that you have the most faith in at this stage of the season. We saw the Yankees waste Fried’s start in the opener and it’s tough to trust anyone in that New York relief corps. Give the edge to the Red Sox as they pull it out late here.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Cubs here. I get the case to be made for the Padres fresh off of their win to even the series up at one in a winner take all game, but Yu Darvish was not major league material for much of the season in my opinion and I could see him struggle here as well. Jameson Taillon’s not my favorite option in this Cubs rotation, but I think he’s good enough here and I think the Cubs win the series. Give me the Cubs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees are getting the benefit of the doubt because they’re the Yankees. Rodon also has playoff experience that Bello does not. However, the Red Sox have now won 8 of the last 11 games against the Yankees, and I trust Alex Cora over Aaron Boone in pressure situations. Also, while Rodon has pitched in the postseason, he’s allowed 25 hits and 15 runs in 20.1 innings. In last year’s postseason, Rodon allowed 21 hits and 11 runs in 17.2 innings. I just don’t trust Rodon in big moments. Also, the Red Sox just keep fining ways to beat the Yankees, and wins like last night only add to the confidence. Give me the Red Sox and the plus money for a second straight night.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cubs are in a prime spot to finish the job tonight, and Dylan Cease’s road record is the biggest reason why. Cease has been a liability away from Petco Park all season, going just 1–9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. He’s allowed 4+ hits in 26 of 32 starts and has struggled to maintain command under pressure, especially in hostile environments. Wrigley Field amplifies that weakness — the crowd, the wind, and the Cubs’ aggressive early-count approach all tilt the matchup against him. San Diego’s offense already looked flat in Game 1, managing just four hits and going scoreless over the final seven innings. If Cease doesn’t get early run support or length, the Padres could be chasing again — and that’s where Chicago’s bullpen thrives.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Yankees were sizzling in the final two weeks of the regular season, a closer look shows they were facing some of the dregs of the league. New York’s last 13 games involved seven with the Orioles, along with three each against the Twins and White Sox. None of those teams won more than 75 games or finished better than fourth in their respective divisions. In their most recent game against a playoff team, they lost in the finale of a three-game set to Boston. The starting pitcher for the Red Sox that night was Crochet, who has won four straight starts and is unbeaten in his last eight. We’ve seen the Yankees be up and down this season, while Boston has been playing solid ball over the last three months. Crochet outduels Fried and delivers a win for the Red Sox.

Rating: 2 Units

Imanaga has been untrustworthy this month, pitching to a 4.91 ERA in four starts. He has been especially home run-prone recently (five HR allowed in his last two starts), and he's given up ten long balls in his previous five starts. That's a red flag ahead of a matchup with a desperate Mets team that scored ten runs on 11 hits, including three homers, in Imanaga's last outing against them. McLean has only made seven career MLB starts, but he's been rock solid in them, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each appearance. Chicago has been fading recently, losing five straight, and has never faced the young right-hander. With New York in a must-win mode to make the playoffs, I lean towards their side.

Rating: 2 Units

The Astros looked like a team that was going to win the AL West to falling out of the wild card race. The Astros are in trouble. And while you’d think they could turn it around against the Athletics, Valdez has allowed 25 hits and 19 earned runs in his last 20.2 innings. In 90.2 road innings, Valdez has a 4.96 ERA and .254 allowed batting average. The Athletics are playing until the finish line, and Ginn has allowed 12 hits and 3 runs in his last 15.1 innings. I’m going to side with the Athletics, as the Astros picked the wrong week to play poorly.

Rating: 2 Units

The Athletics have won their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Astros, and are 3-2 in their last 5 home meetings against the Astros. The Athletics have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Astros. While the Astros have lost five of their last six games as road favorites against American League opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dodgers keep having these moments where they burn a hole in the pocket, and through 17 road innings, Snell has a 5.29 ERA and .317 allowed batting average. The Diamondbacks have caught fire over the last two weeks as they chase down a wild card spot, Nelson continues to pitch well, allowing 22 hits and 7 runs in his last 29 innings. Nelson has a 2.58 ERA and .203 allowed batting average in 80.1 home innings. Also, in 80 at bats against current Dodgers, Nelson is allowing a .200 batting average, .281 on base percentage and has 13 strikeouts. I’ll take a shot with the Diamondbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup trying to hang on to fourth in the division, but they have allowed at least six runs in three of their last four games. The Rays are 35-41 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 38-41 at home. Baltimore is starting Wells, who has allowed four earned runs in 17.2 innings this year. TB is going with Baz, who has allowed 0, 5, 2, 0, and 3 earned runs in his last five. Tyler Wells has been dealing for the O’s, so give me Baltimore to win again here.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m going to roll with Arizona here. It’s crazy to me to think that the Diamondbacks can get one past Shohei Ohtani, but Ohtani hasn’t always gone deep enough into games and for whatever reason, Pfaadt just keeps finding ways to succeed against the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are a bit off the pace, but still have more to lose in this series. I think the Diamondbacks draw first blood here so give me Arizona in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland has posted a 41-34 mark at home this season, but it is 9-1 in the past 10 games. Detroit has won just once in the past 10 games, seeing their lead shrink from 10 1/2 games up when September began. It is just 5-13 in 18 games since the calendar flipped from August. On the flip side, Cleveland is 16-5 in the past 21 games, posting the best record in baseball during the month. They’ve won 6 of 10 meetings with the Tigers this season, and need to at least win one of three games this season to secure the tiebreaker, in the event of a tie atop the division at season’s end. They beat Skubal last week, and he isn’t nearly as effective on the road as he is at home. Back RHP Gavin Williams, who is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across his past seven.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati comes into this matchup playing very well and they are in the middle of the race for the last wild card spot in the NL. The Reds are 44-34 at home this year, while the Pirates are 23-52 on the road. Pittsburgh did just win a series against the A’s and they are starting Oviedo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Cincinnati is going with Singer, who has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. The pitching matchup is pretty even, but I trust the Reds at the plate much more. Take Cincinnati here.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston has done a good job of pulling away in the later innings in this series, as they continue to battle for seeding in the wild card race. The Red Sox are 39-38 on the road this year, while the Rays are 40-40 at home. Tampa Bay is starting Boyle, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. The Sox are going with Early, who has allowed one earned run in 10.1 innings against the Athletics this year. Take Boston to get another win here, as I still can’t trust Boyle on the mound.

Rating: 2 Units

Something is very wrong with Framber Valdez. He has struggled the entire second half, and while he has worked in a useful start here or there, it just seems like something is wrong with him. He is walking lots of guys, and he is giving up lots of homeruns. Most of the Seattle lineup has seen Valdez tons of times, and this doesn’t seem like a great spot for him to get right. George Kirby, on the other hand, is one of the anchors of the Mariner staff, and he is coming off a 14-strikeout effort earlier this week. It was a nice bounce-back from two short outings, and while Kirby isn’t in his best form, the current Astros lineup hasn’t had much career success against him. With Yordan Alvarez back on the IL, the Houston lineup is way too right-handed, and righties hit 40 points lower against Kirby than lefties. It’s a good spot for Kirby, and I look for him to hand off a lead to his bullpen. Give me the Mariners

Rating: 2 Units

Give me the Orioles and the value here. Rodon has been good obviously, this season, but let’s not overlook what Sugano has been able to do. In his last start he faced off against a very good Blue Jays offense and held them down. The Yankees are averaging 5.24 runs per game, but thier offense is going to really struggle to get anything going. The Orioles will only need 4 or 5 runs to get the job done, and they will reach that number. Back the Orioles on the money line.