Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros -150 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The current Astros are 11-for-29 with three doubles and two home runs against Drew Smyly. Jose Abreu, who went 2-for-3 with a couple of RBI last Monday, is 6-for-11 with two doubles and a home run versus Smyly. Although the Astros own a 91 wRC+ against the lefties in May, I think they can get to Smyly in this one. The Cubs, on the other side, sport an 88 wRC+ against the righties in May. They’ve never met J.P. France before, and Cody Bellinger’s eventual absence would be a huge blow for the Cubs on both sides of the ball. The Cubs’ bullpen has thrown a staggering 40.2 innings over the last ten days, posting an underwhelming 4.65 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 6.4 K/9. On the other side, the Astros’ bullpen has tossed 27.2 frames in that span, tallying a 4.23 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 11.7 K/9. |
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05-17-23 | Angels v. Orioles -139 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels will look to bounce back on Wednesday behind Griffin Canning (2-1, 6.38 ERA). The right-hander was ineffective in his latest start, when he allowed five runs on five hits with three strikeouts and a walk in just 3 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to the Houston Astros on May 10. He has a 10.38 ERA in two starts this month. Canning has struggled in three career appearances (two starts) against the Orioles, going 0-2 with a 14.46 ERA, eight strikeouts and seven walks in 9 1/3 innings. He was rocked for six runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings the last time he faced Baltimore on July 2, 2021. The Orioles will hand the ball to right-hander Kyle Bradish (1-1, 4.56 ERA), who will be facing the Angels for the first time. Bradish is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He held the Pittsburgh Pirates to an unearned run on three hits with six strikeouts and a walk in six innings during a no-decision on Friday. |
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05-17-23 | Pirates v. Tigers -155 | 8-0 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last six interleague home games. The Pirates are 11-29 in their last 40 interleague road games. Detroit is hitting much better against lefties (.249 BA/.309 OBP/.411 SLG/.719 OPS) than they are against righties (.226/.290/.339/.629), with better home splits than road splits. Detroit starter Rodriguez (4-2, 1.57 ERA) signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers as a free agent prior to last season. In his latest outing, Rodriguez limited the Cleveland Guardians to four hits and struck out eight in seven innings on May 10. Rodriguez will be opposed on Wednesday by 43-year-old left-hander Rich Hill (3-3, 4.35 ERA). After winning his last three starts in April, Hill is 0-1 with a no-decision in two May outings. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings at Colorado on May 10. |
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05-16-23 | Guardians -120 v. White Sox | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bieber has been as reliable as it gets this year, surrendering three or fewer runs in all his starts. In his last outing, he didn't give up a run, and aside from a couple of long balls was on point in his previous start against the Yankees (two runs in eight innings). The 27-year-old was victorious in three of five outings vs. Chicago last season, holding the Southsiders to two or fewer runs in four of those appearances. He lasted six-plus innings in all five starts, including nine innings on July 12. The White Sox have worse splits against right-hand pitchers than lefties, including a .293 OBP, .378 SLG, and 24.2% K-rate. They'll struggle to put enough runners on base to inflict any damage vs. Bieber, |
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05-16-23 | Cubs +143 v. Astros | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justin Steele is Chicago's win day, and he gets to face an offense that hasn't put things together at home this season. Steele should pitch six or seven strong innings before ceding to the bullpen. Christian Javier will probably have a solid start too, considering the Cubs are struggling offensively also, but should get outdueled by Steele. It's on the Cubs' bullpen to shut this down, and I think that they do. Roll with the away team, which has the starting pitcher and a batting order that's been better this season. |
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05-16-23 | Angels v. Orioles -125 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore starter, Dean Kremer has allowed just one run over 12 innings in his past two starts. Kremer has thrown five career scoreless innings vs. LA. It's Chase Silseth (3.24 ERA) for the Angels. He was solid in his first three relief appearances this year but was roughed up for six runs over 3.1 innings last time out. Silseth was 1-3 with a 6.59 ERA in seven starts as a rookie and allowed four earned over four at Camden Yards. |
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05-15-23 | Twins v. Dodgers -108 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LA’s bullpen has gone 5-0 with five saves, 2.82 ERA, and 10.6 K/9 through the first 13 days in May (38.1 innings pitched). Over the last seven days, the Dodgers’ relievers have recorded a 3.48 ERA and 3.39 FIP, whereas the Twins’ bullpen has posted a 4.66 ERA and 5.67 FIP in that span. The current Dodgers are 23-for-70 with six doubles and a pair of home runs against Pablo Lopez. Freddie Freeman is 11-for-33 versus Lopez, and Will Smith is 2-for-5 with a home run. Los Angeles owns a .244/.337/.463 triple-slash and 121 OPS+ against the righties in 2023. The Dodgers aim for their 11th straight victory over the Twins. Last year, the Blue Crew went 4-0 against Minnesota. |
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05-15-23 | Brewers -104 v. Cardinals | 1-18 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Flaherty is 3-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 17 career games against the Brewers, including 16 starts. Christian Yelich has a career .905 OPS against Flaherty -- and overall he has a .348/.400/.630 slash line in his last 12 games and three homers in the last two. The Brewers started the month 2-7 before sweeping the Royals. Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.32 ERA) will draw Monday's start for the Brewers. He brings a string of three straight quality starts into this game, including his 9-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start. On April 9, Peralta earned a 6-1 victory over the Cardinals while holding them to one run on four hits in six innings. |
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05-14-23 | Giants -129 v. Diamondbacks | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco will try to even the series today with an experienced starter who has had success against the Diamondbacks. Giants right-hander Logan Webb (3-5, 3.46 ERA this season) is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against them. He has 34 strikeouts, with nine walks, in 34 innings. Webb will oppose Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 12.10) on Sunday. Pfaadt, a fifth-round draft choice in 2020, has allowed six home runs in the first two starts of his career. He gave up four home runs against the Texas Rangers on the road in his major-league debut May 3, but the Diamondbacks rallied to win 12-7. Jorge Soler of the Miami Marlins hit two home runs against him in Arizona's 6-2 loss Tuesday in Phoenix. Pfaadt, whose fastball has been clocked as fast as 95 mph, has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. He has as many home runs allowed (six) as he does strikeouts. The Giants are 5-1 in their last six games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 5-2 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 3-9 in their last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. |
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05-14-23 | Rangers -142 v. A's | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the A’s managed to come through with the victory in the second game of the series on Friday night, projecting them to have that kind of power surge again is likely foolhardy. You can’t expect the A’s to put up nine runs or hit four homers in a contest with any regularity as they have struggled offensively all season, especially at home. Texas is one of the deepest lineups in the league and they are a dangerous team offensively. Heaney hasn’t been great on the mound but he is clearly better than Rucinski. Look for the Rangers’ bats to do their job and the A’s to wilt in clutch situations, giving Texas the upper hand on getaway day. |
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05-14-23 | Angels -102 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The Guardians are 0-4 in their last four home games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-11 in their last 12 overall vs. a lefty starter. Cleveland is also 1-5 in its last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Guardians are hitting .220 with a .295 OBP against Southpaws, and Sandoval pitched well against them last season, surrendering two earned runs in two starts (12.1 IP), fanning 12 batters, and picking up a win. The Angels have solid splits in day games (.265 BA/.341 OBP/.435 SLG/.777 OPS) and on the road (.259/.330/.381/.711) this season and 5-0 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. |
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05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -160 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore pitches better at home and gets to face an ice-cold Pirates offense. Tyler Wells is their top starter and has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks. Wells settled for a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday after allowing one run on three hits over five innings. The Orioles' bullpen is one of the hardest to score on at any venue. Pittsburgh's starter, Roansy Contreras, has been rocky in May allowing nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings over his past two starts overall. He surrendered five runs on nine hits in five innings of a 10-1 setback to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. |
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05-13-23 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox have won nine of their last 11 games and six of their last seven home games. They are playing well offensively at home, scoring 26 runs in their last three home games. They will continue playing well offensively in this game because they hit the ball well against left-handers and Matz hasn’t looked good on the mound this season, especially on the road where he has given up six runs in two starts. He gave up 10 runs in his last three starts against the Red Sox and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 10 road games. Sale has done a good job on the mound at home for Boston, giving up two runs in two home starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Cardinals and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Boston to cover the money line. |
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05-13-23 | Rangers -135 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A’s are arguably the worst team in baseball. Their pitching has been abysmal, they can’t hit, their fielding is mediocre and their fans don’t even bother to show up. Oakland has turned its back on the franchise, much like the A’s have seemingly turned their backs on competent baseball. Oakland starter, Sears has decent peripherals when it comes to WHIP along with K:BB ratio but giving up 10 homers is a major problem. That’s an average of 2.4 long balls per nine innings and opposing hitters are posting a robust .300 with runners in scoring position against him. Those aren’t the numbers you want to have when you’re facing a Texas team that piles up runs by the truckload. Give the Rangers the upper hand in this contest as they earn the victory behind Gray. |
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05-12-23 | Rangers -165 v. A's | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The worst pitching staff meets the highest scoring offense in baseball, so I’m not going to overthink this game at all. Give me the Rangers. Texas left-hander Martin Perez (4-1, 3.86 ERA) will try to keep the good times rolling even though he is coming off his worst performance of the season -- seven runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. However, only his stats were negatively affected as the Rangers powered to a 16-8 win. Perez pitched much better -- one run in six innings -- but likewise got more than ample offensive support in a 15-2 win over the New York Yankees in his previous start. The 32-year-old veteran owns a 9-7 record with a 4.46 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) vs. Oakland. The A’s are just 6-for-32 with a pair of doubles against Martin Perez. Texas holds a 118 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers in 2023, and the current Rangers are 7-for-22 with five doubles and a home run against Ken Waldichuk. |
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05-12-23 | Astros -141 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have had their struggles when it comes to getting decent pitching this season. Lynn has been bad, Kopech has been obliterated by the long ball and Dylan Cease sports a 5.58 ERA after eight starts this season. Throw in that they’ve had major issues putting runs on the board as key contributors are having miserable starts to the year and it’s easy to see why the team is well below the .500 mark on the season. J.P. France, a 28-year-old rookie right-hander, is set to make his second career start for Houston today. France (0-0, 0.00 ERA) took a no-decision in his major league debut at Seattle on Saturday, spacing three hits, one walk and five strikeouts in five scoreless innings. Right-hander Michael Kopech (1-3, 5.97 ERA) gets the call for Chicago. Kopech earned his first victory of the season on Sunday in Cincinnati, overcoming four solo home runs by the Reds in six innings during a 17-4 White Sox romp. Kopech is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in three career appearances against Houston, including two starts, with seven strikeouts in 12 innings. |
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05-12-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -145 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Pirates aren't hitting, they also are not pitching well, either. During a 1-5 homestand, Pittsburgh starters fashioned a 6.75 ERA in the five losses, and relievers compiled a 5.14 mark Pittsburgh will turn to right-hander Johan Oviedo (2-3, 5.59 ERA) in the opener of the series. Oviedo is 0-2 with a 12.08 ERA in his past three starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. He has struck out eight and walked seven during that stretch. Last time out, Oviedo allowed seven runs -- six earned -- on 10 hits in five innings of a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He has never faced the Orioles, who will counter with right-hander Kyle Bradish (1-1, 5.95). |
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05-11-23 | White Sox +102 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both pitchers have been hammered in their recent outings with Clevenger sporting an ERA north of six in his last three outings while Singer is just shy of a double-digit ERA in that stretch. It’s tough to get an accurate read on what to expect from Singer, who has seen his career ERA jump half a run at Kauffman Stadium in just his last three starts. This season, Singer is a miserable 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP and has allowed five homers in 19 innings of work in his outings at Kauffman Stadium. Clevinger has been tremendous against the Royals in his career posting a 9-0 record and 1.98 ERA, and with Kansas City struggling to put runs on the board, you have to give the slight edge to the visitors here on getaway day. |
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05-11-23 | Padres v. Twins +110 | 3-5 | Win | 110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Minnesota Twins will try to earn a fifth series win in their six home set this season this afternoon when they face the San Diego Padres in the rubber game of a three-game series at Minneapolis. Right-hander Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98 ERA) will make his fourth start of the season and first of his career against the Padres. The Padres have struggled against right-handers this season and Ober has been great on the mound so far, giving up two runs in three starts. Minnesota bounced back from a 6-1 loss to San Diego in the Tuesday series opener by winning 4-3 in 11 innings on Wednesday. San Diego right-hander Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19 ERA), who is 1-2 with a 2.73 ERA in four career starts against the Twins, gets the start today. |
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05-10-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs -107 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Montgomery has pitched well, though his record doesn’t indicate it. The fact that the Redbirds have been blanked in three of his seven starts hasn’t helped matters for him. We’ve seen the Cardinals have a major inconsistency when it comes to generating offensive production. That will be a problem against Cubs starter Steele (5-0, 1.45 ERA) who made a name for himself with a 3.18 ERA in 2022 -- his first full season as a starter -- he's been one the majors' best in 2023. The left-hander leads the National League in ERA, and after allowing one run with six hits and no walks in seven innings of Friday's 4-1 home victory over Miami, he tied Jake Arrieta's Cubs' record of yielding two or fewer earned runs in 14 consecutive starts. Steele is 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA during those last 14 outings. |
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05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -134 | 5-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Merrill Kelly (3-3, 2.75 ERA) will start for Arizona Today. After taking losses in each of his first three home starts this season. Twelve is the same number of strikeouts Kelly has thrown in his three career starts against Miami combined, with four in each game. Kelly has found his form. Last Friday, he struck out 10 Nationals while allowing one run over seven innings, dropping his ERA to2.75. Over his last 13 innings, Kelly has fanned 15 and walked two. The 10 strikeouts were his most since recording 12 in a May 2021 meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miami's starter today, Edward Cabrera (2-3, 4.78 ERA), is after his first road win of 2023. Each of Cabrera's three losses this season have been away from home, including his most recent start: a 4-1 loss to the Cubs on Friday in which he struck out eight and gave up three runs in five innings. |
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05-09-23 | White Sox -142 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lucas Giolito (1-2, 3.67 ERA) will attempt to get the White Sox's rotation back on track today when he goes up against Jordan Lyles (0-5, 6.69) in a battle of right-handers. Giolito is 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 career starts versus the Royals. Lyles is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in seven lifetime appearances (five starts) against Chicago. Today's pitchers are trending in opposite directions. Giolito is coming off a stellar seven-inning performance in which he allowed just one run on two hits against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. Lyles has failed to hold a team under seven runs in each of his past two outings. In his most recent start -- a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles last Thursday -- Lyles gave up eight runs (six earned) on six hits in five innings. The Royals have lost five of their last six games and 10 of their last 11 home games. |
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05-09-23 | Padres +102 v. Twins | 6-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres have posted a 10-6 record in their last 16 games and have won six of their last nine road contests. The Minnesota Twins have been inconsistent recently and have only won two of their last six contests after a series loss in Cleveland. The Padres have Michael Wacha on the mound today. The veteran just tossed six shutout innings against the Reds. He silenced Minnesota last season, limiting them to only two runs in 11 innings. The Padres' pitching has been stellar, conceding three or fewer runs in five of their last six games. Twins’ rookie starter Louie Varland is a pitcher the Padres should hit. Varland struggled in his two outings this season, conceding seven runs including four home runs in only 10.2 innings. |
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05-09-23 | Rays -119 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays, who are seeking their 10th win in their past 12 games, will look to take the three-game series behind Zach Eflin (4-0, 2.25 ERA) today. The right-hander allowed just three hits to go along with 10 strikeouts and no walks over seven innings of a 3-2 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates last Thursday. Orioles’ starter Grayson Rodriguez is a promising rookie but is still learning the art of pitching. He has squandered at least four runs in three of his five outings and just gave up six runs to the Royals last time out, plummeting his ERA to 5.46. The Rays have won eight of their last ten games including a 3-0 win on Monday. |
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05-08-23 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | 5-12 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease (2-1, 4.58 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago, opposing Zack Greinke (1-4, 5.25) in a battle of right-handers. Cease went five innings in his most recent outing, when he allowed four runs on five hits with six strikeouts and four walks in a no-decision against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday. In 12 career starts against the Royals, Cease is 4-3 with a 2.58 ERA. Salvador Perez and Hunter Dozier have seen Cease the most, but the duo has struggled against the right-hander, combining to strike out 20 times in 45 at-bats. Greinke is coming off his first win of the season. He needed just 44 pitches to complete five scoreless innings against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday. Greinke allowed three hits, struck out three and did not issue a walk. The 20-year veteran has a lengthy history against Chicago, going 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA over 31 career appearances (28 starts). |
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05-08-23 | Rays -168 v. Orioles | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will open the series with left-hander Shane McClanahan (6-0, 2.03 ERA), who has been among the best pitchers in the majors. He gave up a run on five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in six innings during an 8-1 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday. Tampa Bay has won each of McClanahan's seven starts this season, as he has yielded two runs or fewer while pitching at least five innings in all seven outings. McClanahan has been dominant against the Orioles throughout his career: 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 45 strikeouts against just nine walks in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings dating back to 2021. The Orioles will counter right right-hander Kyle Gibson (4-1, 4.61 ERA). Gibson is coming off his worst start of the year, when he allowed six runs on 10 hits with no strikeouts and no walks over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-0 loss to the host Kansas City Royals on Wednesday. |
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05-08-23 | Rockies v. Pirates -166 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado struggles on the road, losing 65 of its last 94 away from Coors Field and when facing a team with a winning record, Colorado has lost 93 of its last 135 on the road. Pittsburgh has won six of its last eight played at home and the Pirates have won four of the last five at home when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Colorado starting pitcher Kyle Freeman was roughed up on April 17 by the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing eight hits and nine runs over just 2 ⅔ innings with Colorado losing to Pittsburgh 14-3. In contrast, Pittsburgh starting pitcher Mitch Keller has had three consecutive strong outings, allowing just 14 hits and five runs in 17 innings with 23 strikeouts and just three walks. Pittsburgh swept Colorado in a three-game series earlier this season when the two met for the first time. |
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05-07-23 | White Sox v. Reds -120 | 17-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have hit the ball well over the last few games but will have a tough assignment against Graham Ashcraft. They’ve never met him before, and Ashcraft has been outstanding so far this season. On the other side, it’s hard to trust Michael Kopech to string a couple of strong outings. He ranks in the 1st percentile in barrel percentage and the 3rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, so I’m going with the Reds, who are 4-2 in Ashcraft’s six starts this season. |
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05-07-23 | Marlins v. Cubs +105 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara (1-3, 5.09 ERA) dazzled in 2022, throwing six complete games while going 14-9 in 32 starts with 207 strikeouts and a 2.28 ERA. However, that success has yet to carry over to 2023, where he's yielded at least three earned runs in four of his six starts, completed six or more innings just twice and fanned more than six only once. The right-hander hasn't faced the Cubs since he yielded an Ian Happ homer, two other hits and overcame three walks over 6 2/3 innings of Miami's 5-1 road victory in Game 1 of the 2020 NL Wild Card series. Including the postseason, Happ is 2-for-4 versus Alcantara, who's now saddled with trying to help the Marlins end their longest slide of 2023. Since sweeping a three-game home set from the Cubs last weekend, Miami has been outscored 34-12 in five games since. Hayden Wesneski (2-1, 4.45) eyes a third straight solid start when he takes the ball for Chicago on Sunday. The right-hander has allowed a lone run in each of his last two outings while giving up a total of nine hits and just one walk over 11 innings. |
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05-07-23 | Yankees -113 v. Rays | 7-8 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole has been one of the best starting pitchers in the big leagues this season, ranking 2nd in ERA. The ace has allowed either zero or one run in five of his seven outings. Cole completely dominated the Rays last season, limiting them to only three runs in four starts spanning 25.1 innings, which equates to a minuscule 1.07 ERA. The Rays will have Josh Fleming on the hill after opener Javy Guerra. Fleming doesn’t strike out many batters and that plays to the Yankees' advantage considering they don't strike out a lot. The Yankees have been a sure thing with Cole on the mound this season, winning in all seven of his starts. |
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05-06-23 | Blue Jays -125 v. Pirates | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is expected to start right-hander Jose Berrios (2-3, 5.29 ERA), with Pittsburgh going with right-hander Johan Oviedo (2-2, 4.78 ERA). Berrios, in his most recent outing, gave up five runs and 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings Monday against Boston without getting a decision. He had given up just three runs total over his previous three starts. Berrios is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two career starts against the Pirates. Oviedo took the loss Sunday at Washington when he gave up seven runs and nine hits in 2 1/3 innings -- all season worsts. Pittsburgh has been a nice start to the year but one has to wonder how their pitching will hold up as things go forward. It’s hard enough relying on guys like Rich Hill and Velasquez: it can be more complicated when a guy like that hits the shelf, forcing you even further into your pitching depth. |
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05-06-23 | Yankees v. Rays -168 | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are having a hard time generating runs without their two big power threats Judge and Stanton. Overall, the Yankees are just 24th in runs scored in baseball while the Rays are first. German also sports an ERA north of six on the road and has given up seven home runs this season. That doesn't bode well when playing a Rays' team that is first in baseball in home runs in 2023. As a team, the Rays are hitting .263 at home and slugging .570. Tampa Bay will give the ball to right-hander Drew Rasmussen (3-2, 3.66 ERA) today. Rasmussen has made two career appearances (one start) against the Yankees and has gone 1-0 and without allowing a run in 8 1/3 innings. In head-to-head matchups, Rasmussen has fanned 13 and not walked a batter. Expect the Rays' offense to carry the day and Rasmussen to hold New York's struggling lineup at bay to pick up a win. |
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05-06-23 | Marlins v. Cubs -163 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drew Smyly (3-1, 2.83 ERA) is slated to take the mound for the Cubs on Saturday. The left-hander yielded just a second-inning homer and five other hits without a walk while lasting seven innings in Monday's 5-1 victory at Washington. It was Smyly's fifth straight start allowing two or fewer earned runs, and he is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA in six appearances (including five starts) against the Marlins. Schumaker is scheduled to hand the ball to right-hander Bryan Hoeing (0-1, 6.23 ERA)and hasn't shown he can carry a team to victory. |
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05-05-23 | Dodgers -111 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since ousting the Dodgers in the 2022 NLDS, the Padres signed free agents Xander Bogaerts, Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter and Seth Lugo and regained the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. -- adding to roster that already included Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Darvish and Musgrove. The Padres' payroll this season is $249 million -- more than $26 million higher than the Dodgers'. But the Dodgers are still the defending champs of the National League West and they were 14-5 against the Padres during the regular season. They have won the season series against the Padres for 12 straight seasons -- with a 144-73 edge during the run. And the 35-year-old Kershaw is pitching like the Kershaw of his prime. In addition to leading the National League in wins with an ERA under two, the three-time Cy Young Award winner has a 0.763 WHIP and a .175 opponents' batting average. Kershaw, who earlier this season reaching the 200-win plateau -- has given up 11 runs (eight earned) on 24 hits and five walks with 41 strikeouts in 38 innings. During his career, Kershaw is 23-9 with a 2.03 ERA in 45 starts against San Diego with 310 strikeouts in 292 innings. And he is 11-4 with a 1.87 ERA in 20 career starts at Petco Park. Darvish is 3-5 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.47 ERA, 82 strikeouts and 17 walks in 62 innings over 10 starts. |
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05-05-23 | Twins -118 v. Guardians | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In today's series opener, Minnesota will start right-hander Bailey Ober (1-0, 1.59 ERA) and Cleveland will go with 25-year-old rookie righty Peyton Battenfield (0-2, 4.67). Last Saturday, the 6-foot-9 Ober returned to the Twins' rotation for his second start of the year and held the Kansas City Royals to one run in 5 2/3 innings with six strikeouts. Cleveland ranks only 14th in the American League with 116 runs scored while the Twins are scoring more (147 runs, seventh in AL) than Cleveland. The Twins' defense has also been a little better. |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -142 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brewers’ lefty starter Wade Miley has been incredible, limiting his opponent to two or fewer runs in all but one start this season and is sporting a minuscule 1.86 ERA. The Rockies struggle against lefties, posting a subpar .652 OPS against lefties compared to a .713 against righties. Also, the Rockies are dealing with several injuries to the starting pitching staff and are starting Connor Seabold who has pitched out of the pen. The young right-hander has struggled, reporting an abysmal 8.49 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP in his 35 career innings in the Major Leagues. |
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05-04-23 | Orioles -169 v. Royals | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles aim to reignite their offense against Jordan Lyles (0-5, 6.11 ERA), who gets the start for the Royals in the series finale. The right-hander Lyles seeks his first win of 2023, returning to the mound from his worst start of the campaign. He lasted only four innings last Friday, walking four and giving up seven earned runs at Minnesota. Lyles' ERA jumped from 4.88 to 6.11 with the poor start. Thursday is Lyles' first appearance at home since he pitched a season-high eight innings in a 4-0 loss to Texas on April 17. Lyles last faced Baltimore as a member of the Rangers, going 6 2/3 innings with four strikeouts and three earned runs in September 2021. Grayson Rodriguez (1-0, 4.07) takes the mound for Baltimore, coming off scoring his first career win in a nine-strikeout, two-hit performance last Saturday at Detroit. Rodriguez has gone his last two starts, both against the Tigers, without giving up a run. The rookie right-hander has 34 strikeouts on the season, with at least six in each of his last four appearances. |
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05-03-23 | Orioles -148 v. Royals | 0-6 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore, which has won all 10 of its series openers this season, looks to capture its seventh consecutive series today when the Orioles send veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson (4-0, 3.93 ERA) to the mound. Gibson has a long history against the Royals, including making his major league debut versus Kansas City and building a 10-5 record and 3.79 ERA over 26 games, including 24 starts. He hasn't lost to the Royals since 2018, winning four straight with three different clubs. His most recent decision versus Kansas City came in 2021, when he had 10 strikeouts over seven shutout innings for the Texas Rangers. Right-hander Zack Greinke (0-4, 6.10) will start on Wednesday for Kansas City. Greinke's 2023 starts have been progressively worse. He surrendered seven runs over 3 2/3 innings-- his most since May 23 of last year -- in a 7-1 loss to the Minnesota Twins. |
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05-03-23 | Guardians -121 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Guardians have Shane Bieber on the mound. The ace already pitched against the Yankees this season and was outstanding, limiting them to only two runs in seven innings in a 3-2 victory. Bieber has actually been more effective on the road this season where he is sporting a 2.88 ERA in four starts. Yankees’ starter Clarke Schmidt can’t be relied on. The young right-hander just allowed five runs against the Rangers on the weekend and Cleveland recently scored four runs in three innings against Schmidt last month. Schmidt took a loss in his most recent start, when he gave up five runs on 10 hits over five innings as the Yankees fell 5-2 to the Rangers on Friday. He is 0-0 with a 7.50 ERA in two career regular-season games (one start) against the Guardians. He also went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two relief appearances against Cleveland. The Yankees are struggling, dropping seven of their last ten games including a 3-2 loss in Monday's series opener. |
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05-02-23 | Angels +115 v. Cardinals | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles plays well against weaker opponents, winning four of the last five against a team that has a winning percentage of less than .400. Los Angeles starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval performed well on the mound last time out allowing two earned runs on six hits in seven Innings with five strikeouts. Los Angeles defeated Oakland 11-3 in that matchup last Wednesday. In contrast, St Louis starting pitcher Steven Matz has a 6.23 ERA and has been hit hard in each of his five starts allowing 18 runs in 26 innings pitched. St Louis was swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series over the weekend and has lost six of the last seven while also losing seven of the last 10 played at home. |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -145 v. Royals | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore Orioles open today's series against the Kansas City Royals with the clubs headed in opposite directions. The Orioles continue their season-long, 10-game road trip having won six straight series, their best streak since 2014. After winning 11 of 13, Baltimore improved to 19-9 for its best start since 1997. Right-hander Tyler Wells (1-1, 2.79 ERA) makes his eighth start of the year. He collected his first win Wednesday, allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings against Boston. Wells, who leads the majors with a 0.724 WHIP, made his only two career starts against Kansas City in 2022, going six innings each while winning both games. The Royals are in a 3-14 slide, falling to the bottom of the American League Central with baseball's second-worst record. The 7-22 start matches their worst in club history. Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough (0-3, 6.35 ERA) will make his second start after throwing 77 pitches over four innings in his previous start Wednesday at Arizona. |
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05-02-23 | Twins -160 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins' splits are more favorable against right-handers (.248/.322/.426/.748) than against left-handers (.193/.265/.360/.625), with 35 doubles, 30 home runs, 110 RBI, and 74 walks vs. righties. They should be comfortable at the plate against Kopech, who has just one quality start in five outings in 2023. Minnesota should be able to put runners in scoring position easily — Kopech has given up three or more walks in four of five starts — and capitalize on any mistakes he makes of the heart of the plate in those situations. The White Sox will likely struggle against Ryan, who is mowing down the opposition this season. He's surrendered only ten earned runs in 32 innings, allowing just one walk in his last three outings combined. Chicago has a lower OBP (.292) against right-handers, with 190 strikeouts and just 49 walks in 770 ABs. |
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05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers -156 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After recovering from a sprained ankle suffered in spring training, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin is trying to rebuild his mound endurance. That process continues Monday against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his second start of the season in the opener of a three-game series. In his first start, Gonsolin threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates while allowing two hits and three walks. He threw 65 pitches, 39 for strikes. The Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker (2-1, 4.97 ERA), who exited his previous start with forearm tightness after throwing 68 pitches over four innings. Walker is 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 11 career starts against the Dodgers. He has had trouble with Mookie Betts (5-for-10, two walks, double, RBI) and Chris Taylor (4-for-14, two walks, double, RBI). The Dodgers enter this series after sweeping their weekend set against the St. Louis Cardinals. |
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05-01-23 | Cubs -130 v. Nationals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (2-1, 3.21 ERA) opposes left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-1, 3.00) in the series opener. Smyly has been a solid performer early in his second season with the Cubs. After being hammered for seven runs -- six earned -- in his first outing of the season, Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his past four starts. Last time out, Smyly allowed two runs on four hits over five innings of a no-decision against the San Diego Padres. He struck out four and walked one while throwing 89 pitches. The two runs came on three hits and a walk in the fourth. Smyly is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in eight games, including six starts, in his career versus the Nationals. Gore lost his only career start against the Cubs, allowing three runs on seven hits over five innings in a game last season. The Cubs have lost four of their last five games, but they’ve won five of their last nine road games. The Nationals have lost four of their last six games and six of their last seven home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only four runs in their last four home games. |
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05-01-23 | Braves -111 v. Mets | 3-5 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlie Morton (3-2, 2.76), today's originally scheduled starter, will start the second game in today's double header. Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.96), who was scheduled to oppose Strider on Saturday and Sunday will be on the hill for New York in Game 2. Morton earned the win last Tuesday, when he allowed one run over seven innings as the Braves beat the Miami Marlins, 7-4. Megill will be looking to reverse a trend that's become commonplace over his three seasons. The 27-year-old didn't factor into the decision on April 23 when he gave up four runs over four innings as the Mets fell 5-4 to the San Francisco Giants. Megill is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in his last two starts after going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his first three starts. Last season, Megill was 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in five April starts -- including an outing in which he tossed the first five innings of a combined no-hitter -- but 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA in 10 games (four starts) thereafter. As a rookie in 2021, Megill was 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his first seven starts but 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA the remainder of the season. |
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04-30-23 | Reds -145 v. A's | 4-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have a 108 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers and an 81 OPS+ versus the left-handed starters in 2023. On the other side, the Reds own an 88 OPS+ against the lefties and a strong 116 OPS+ versus the left-handed starters. Both teams have hit well of late, so I’m looking for the Reds’ pitching staff to make a difference. Nick Lodolo can only pitch better than he did last week, and the Reds’ bullpen has amassed a sturdy 2.61 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and .250 opposing BABIP over the last seven days and 20.2 innings of work. On the other side, the Athletics’ bullpen has posted a disastrous 8.56 ERA, 6.24 FIP, and .379 opposing BABIP across 27.1 frames in the last seven days. |
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04-30-23 | Guardians +110 v. Red Sox | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Red Sox will turn to left-hander Chris Sale as they look to take a three-game series from the visiting Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. Sale (1-2, 8.22 ERA) has not won since his second start back on April 6 against Detroit, going 0-2 in three decisions since. He allowed nine hits and five runs in five innings Monday at Baltimore. Sale has walked 10 and allowed five home runs across his 23 innings. The veteran lefty's 8.22 ERA is the highest of any five-start span in his career. Sale is 5-8 with a 4.76 ERA in 31 career appearances (20 starts) against Cleveland. Opposing will be Cleveland's talented young southpaw Logan Allen (1-0, 1.50), who struck out eight in six innings of one-run ball last Sunday during his major league debut against Miami. |
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04-30-23 | Cubs -160 v. Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -160 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins will start rookie right-hander Bryan Hoeing (0-1, 9.82 ERA). Hoeing, 26, was Miami's seventh-round pick out of Louisville in 2019. He made his major league debut last year. Since then, he has made nine appearances (two starts) going 1-2 with an 11.57 ERA. He has faced the Cubs just once, pitching one scoreless inning of relief in a game last September. The Cubs will counter Hoeing with left-hander Justin Steele, who is 4-0 and has the best ERA in the National League (1.19). In his 12 most recent starts, dating to back July 22, 2022, Steele is 5-1 with a 1.07 ERA. Armed with high heat and a nasty slider, Steele has blossomed. He has faced the Marlins just once in his career, tossing 4 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out 10 in a 2-1 Cubs victory in August of last season. |
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04-29-23 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -140 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers have won three of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 18 runs in their last four games. Expect them to continue playing well in this game because Montgomery has struggled on the mound for the Cardinals, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up six runs in his only start against the Dodgers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and five of their last seven road games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only 13 runs in their last four road games. Things won’t get easier for them in this game because Kershaw has looked good on the mound this season, especially at home where he has given up one run in two starts while striking out 18 batters. He gave up four runs in his last five home starts against the Cardinals and will keep their offense in check once again. |
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04-29-23 | Pirates -148 v. Nationals | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington starter Chad Kuhl will take the mound for the fifth time of the season. Kuhl exited after allowing one run in 3.2 innings against the Twins last weekend, resulting in a no-decision in a game the Nats won by a 10-4 score. The veteran has not looked good, squandering at least four runs in three of his four performances, and has reported a 7.36 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 18.1 innings. Kuhl has conceded one run in 4.1 career innings against his old Pirates team. Pittsburgh starter Vince Velasquez will take the mound for the sixth time of the year today. Velasquez was brilliant in his previous start, completing seven shutout innings against the Reds, striking out ten batters in a 2-0 win. The veteran has struggled in recent years but has rebounded nicely this year, posting a 3.76 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP accompanied by a 3-2 record in 26.1 innings pitched. |
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04-29-23 | Phillies v. Astros -120 | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Zack Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Phillies on Saturday. He has won consecutive starts despite allowing seven runs on 11 hits and three walks in 11 innings against the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies. He struck out 16 in those two outings. While Wheeler will make his first career regular-season start against the Astros, he faced Houston twice in the World Series. He allowed seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and four walks with eight strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings while taking the loss in both Game 2 and Game 6. Right-hander Cristian Javier (2-0, 3.21) has the starting assignment for the Astros today. He struck out a season-high 10 batters -- including seven consecutively -- against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday. Javier allowed two runs (one earned) on three hits and two walks over six innings in a 5-2 victory. Javier has faced the Phillies just once in his career, and it was a historic outing. He threw the first six innings of a combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series, recording nine strikeouts and walking two in a 5-0 victory. |
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04-28-23 | Angels v. Brewers -132 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to veteran left-hander Wade Miley when they welcome the Los Angeles Angels for the first time since 2016 today in the opener of a three-game series. Miley (3-1, 1.96 ERA) will be opposed by left-hander Tyler Anderson (1-0, 7.20 ERA). Miley, limited to 37 innings in nine games with the Cubs last season due to injuries, has been the Brewers' most effective starter. In his last start, he allowed two runs in five innings to get the victory in a 5-4 win over the Red Sox. Miley has not allowed a run in two of his four starts, and opponents are batting just .209 against him. Miley is 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Angels, the last time in 2019 when he was with Houston. Anderson, 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA as an All-Star last season with the Dodgers, will be making his fifth start. He has not won since his first start when he allowed four hits over six scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory at Oakland on April 2. In three starts since then, Anderson has allowed 17 runs, 16 earned, on 22 hits in 14 innings, allowing five home runs. Anderson kept the ball in the park in his last start, but was tagged for six runs, five earned, on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings with just one strikeout. He did not get the decision in an 11-8 loss to the Royals. Anderson is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers. He is 1-2 with an 8.59 in three starts at American Family Field, allowing 14 runs in 14 2/3 innings. |
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04-28-23 | Braves -132 v. Mets | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pitching matchup for the series opener features New York left-hander David Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA) against Atlanta southpaw Max Fried (1-0, 0.60). Peterson lost to the host San Francisco Giants in his most recent start on Saturday. He pitched five innings and was roughed up for seven runs on seven hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. He remains in the rotation because of injuries to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer's 10-game suspension for use of a foreign substance on the ball. Peterson is 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA in eight career appearances, seven starts, against the Braves. His last appearance vs. Atlanta was on Oct. 1, when he worked two-thirds of a scoreless inning. Fried has retained the form that made him runner-up in the 2022 NL Cy Young Award voting. After sustaining a left hamstring strain in the season opener and ending up on the injured list, Fried has returned to work two scoreless stints. In his latest outing, against the Houston Astros on Sunday, he received no decision after tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings and yielding three hits and three walks. He struck out five. In 21 career appearances (16 starts) against the Mets, Fried is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 97 innings. Last season, he was 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in five starts against New York. |
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04-27-23 | Orioles -143 v. Tigers | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect the Orioles to win convincingly on Thursday. Despite the Tigers playing well against the Brewers, the Orioles have a huge edge in the starting pitching advantage, including a slightly stronger bullpen. Baltimore also has a superior offense, ranking in the top-11 in scoring, home runs, and OPS, while the Tigers are in the bottom five in those categories. The Orioles have won six straight games over losing ball clubs, and I will take them to come out on top and end up with another victory over the Tigers. |
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04-27-23 | Padres -126 v. Cubs | 2-5 | Loss | -126 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seth Lugo (2-1, 2.78 ERA) will make a fifth start to open his season for the Padres on Thursday. A prime reliever the past five years for the New York Mets, the right-hander started 18 games for New York in 2017, and amid injuries in San Diego's rotation to open 2023, he is delivering in that role for the time being. Lugo allowed two runs and six hits while walking one and striking out six over six innings on Friday at Arizona. However, the Padres' offense managed just two hits and the Diamondbacks pulled away late to make him a hard-luck loser.Hayden Wesneski (1-1, 6.23 ERA) is scheduled to take the mound for the Cubs in the series finale. The rookie right-hander has had his issues thus far in 2023, and he allowed three runs and five hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-4 loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Wesneski, who has completed five innings just once in his four 2023 starts, will face the Padres for the first time. He will get his first look at Xander Bogaerts, who is batting .326 and has reached base in 28 straight games dating to 2022. |
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04-26-23 | Padres v. Cubs -104 | 5-3 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Smyly (2-1, 3.13 ERA) took a perfect game into the eighth inning Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The bid for history ended when Smyly and catcher Yan Gomes collided trying to field David Peralta's slow roller that barely made it halfway to third base. It was the only hit and runner Smyly allowed over 7 2/3 innings, as he struck out 10 in the Cubs' 13-0 win at Wrigley Field. After yielding seven runs (six earned) and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings at Cincinnati in his 2023 debut, Smyly has given up two runs and seven hits over 18 1/3 innings over his past three starts. Armed with a balanced approach of fastballs and curveballs, plus other off-speed options, Smyly has found an early rhythm in his second season with Chicago. In his past seven home starts, Smyly is 3-1 with an 0.89 ERA. Scheduled San Diego starter Michael Wacha (2-1, 7.08 ERA) allowed four runs and eight hits over 12 innings while winning his first two starts this season. However, he has yielded 12 runs and 21 hits in 8 1/3 innings over his past two outings. The right-hander is 4-8 with a hefty 6.50 ERA in 20 career outings (18 starts) against the Cubs, but he last faced them in 2019 when he was with the St. Louis Cardinals. |
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04-26-23 | Marlins v. Braves -155 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara (1-2, 5.47 ERA) will be matched up against Atlanta's Bryce Elder (2-0, 1.14) in the third game of a four-game series. The Braves won the first two games, 11-0 and 7-4. Alcantara missed his last scheduled start, on Saturday against the Cleveland Guardians, due to biceps tendinitis. Alcantara has been roughed up in the early portion of the season aside from the shutout he threw on April 4 against the Minnesota Twins. Over his two most recent starts, he allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in 10 innings. He gave up five runs (three earned) in his latest outing, on April 16 against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks, but had a season-high nine strikeouts. Elder has pitched at least 5 1/3 innings in each of his four starts this year, and he held the opposition without an earned run three times. He hasn’t given up a run in two home starts and gave up only five runs in his last three starts against the Marlins. |
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04-26-23 | Mariners v. Phillies +114 | 5-6 | Win | 114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This has the makings of what should be a solid pitching matchup. Gilbert has faced Philadelphia just one time, giving up four earned runs in 5.0 innings back in May of last year. Walker has never faced Seattle, so there is just a limited amount of history to make a prediction of how the starters will perform. However, both have looked good this season and are getting solid performances from their bullpens of late which should keep their teams in the game. The big advantage for Philadelphia is that they have been much better offensively of late, and they are starting to drive the ball better. While the Phillies have hit only 26 home runs this season, they have hit 14 over their last 10 games. That will prove to be the one edge they need to earn a narrow victory in this contest. |
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04-25-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee's starter today, left-hander Eric Lauer, is coming off his two best outings of the young season. Lauer (3-1, 4.30 ERA) held the San Diego Padres to one run and five hits in six innings on April 14, then limited the Seattle Mariners to two runs and four hits in 7 2/3 innings on Wednesday. Lauer isn't a hard thrower by major league standards. His fastball topped out at just over 91 mph his latest start, but he used his cutter effectively. He will be opposed by right-hander Spencer Turnbull (1-3, 7.85 ERA). In his latest outing on Wednesday, Turnbull gave up three runs and three hits while walking three in 5 1/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians. |
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04-25-23 | Yankees v. Twins -120 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have lost three of their last five games, but they’ve won five of their last nine home games. They struggled offensively in recent games, scoring only nine runs in their last three games, but they will play well in this game because they hit the ball well against right-handers and they hammered Brito in Yankee Stadium less than two weeks ago, scoring seven runs in less than one inning against him. With New York’s bullpen also struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The Yankees have lost two of their last three games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring only five runs. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Gray has been dominant on the mound for the Twins, giving up only two runs in four starts. |
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04-25-23 | Rangers -144 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati looks to take the three-game series on Tuesday behind Luke Weaver (0-1, 6.00 ERA). The right-hander got off to a rough start in his Reds debut last Thursday against the Pittsburgh Pirates after missing the first three weeks of the season with a right elbow flexor strain. Weaver allowed four first-inning runs before following with five shutout innings in a 4-3 loss. He finished with eight strikeouts against two walks and four hits. Texas, which is coming off just its second loss in its past eight games, will turn to left-hander Martin Perez (3-1, 3.38). He allowed three runs on eight hits with three strikeouts and no walks over 5 2/3 innings in a 12-3 win over the host Kansas City Royals last Wednesday. Perez will pitch against the Reds for the first time in nearly a decade and for just the second time in his 12-year major league career. Perez threw 6 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just six hits with three strikeouts and a walk, in a 4-0 win in June 2013. The Rangers are averaging 8.75 runs per game over their past eight contests. |
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04-24-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -152 | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers will be out to remain the only team in the majors that has not lost consecutive games this season when they host the Detroit Tigers today in the opener of a three-game series. Right-hander Colin Rea (0-0, 4.22 ERA), summoned from Triple-A Nashville after Brandon Woodruff went on the injured list, makes his third start for Milwaukee, while left-hander Matthew Boyd (0-1, 4.50) gets the nod for Detroit. Brewers are facing a team that has put up six runs in their last five games. The Tigers are also the lowest-scoring team in the majors. Milwaukee is top-10 in pitching and offense right now, something that should be on full display against a lackluster Detroit team. |
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04-24-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -155 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both pitchers have had their struggles this season but Bassitt’s real issues came in his first start of the year. He’s pitched well in his last three starts, turning in a sub-two ERA, and is coming off a stellar outing in Toronto’s win over Houston. Meanwhile, Lynn has been roughed up repeatedly this season, posting an ERA north of nine in his last three starts, and was tagged by Philadelphia in his previous outing. The White Sox entered Sunday losers of eight of their 12 road games on the season. Those numbers don’t bode well for the Pale Hose and with Bassitt pitching well, coupled with the depth in the Blue Jays’ lineup, you have to lean toward the hosts in this contest. |
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04-24-23 | Rangers -108 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The high-octane Rangers recorded their 10th win in 13 outings with a 5-2 victory over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Texas is no stranger to lighting up the scoreboard, with the team's loud bats going a long way toward providing great comfort to the club's pitching staff. Conversely, the ice-cold Reds have lost six in a row following Sunday's 2-0 setback to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They mustered just four hits en route to being shut out for the third time during that stretch. Texas right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 5.40 ERA) snapped a two-start losing skid by tossing six strong innings in a 12-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals last Tuesday. He allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out five in that outing. Eovaldi, 33, is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two career appearances (both starts) versus the Reds. He will be opposed by Cincinnati left-hander Nick Lodolo (2-1, 4.98), who is looking to turn the corner following a disastrous outing in his last trip to the mound. Lodolo, 25, yielded eight runs on 12 hits -- including three homers -- in 4 2/3 innings in a 10-0 shellacking by the high-powered Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. |
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04-23-23 | Mets -106 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With right-hander Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.00 ERA) slated to start the series finale for the Mets, the Giants could elect to activate Joc Pederson (sprained right wrist) from the injured list. San Francisco already saw the return of former Met Michael Conforto (tight left calf) earlier in the series. Megill won each of his first three starts, limiting the Miami Marlins (twice) and San Diego Padres to a total of four runs on 12 hits in 16 innings. The visitors will test their mettle on Sunday against Giants right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.30), who will be making his second start of the season. Stripling was in the Giants' opening rotation, albeit for only for one start -- a 6-0 loss to the New York Yankees in which he allowed four runs in five innings. He since has made three relief appearances, serving up six runs in 7 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old has made just one previous start against the Mets. He's 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA in three career appearances against them. |
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04-23-23 | Red Sox v. Brewers -161 | 12-5 | Loss | -161 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers hope to see a healthy Corbin Burnes on the mound Sunday when they play the rubber match of a three-game series against the visiting Boston Red Sox. Burnes (2-1, 4.76 ERA) left his most recent start Monday at Seattle in the sixth inning with a left pectoral strain. The right-hander reported no issues following his bullpen session on Friday, however. Right-hander Brayan Bello (0-1, 16.88) will make his second start for Boston since coming off the injured list. Burnes got the victory in his start against the Mariners, allowing two runs on three hits in 5 1/3 innings before exiting with the injury. In his previous start, he gave up just three hits over eight scoreless innings in a 7-1 win at the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 11. Opponents are batting .207 this season against Burnes, who has yet to face the Red Sox in his career. Bello, who posted a 2-8 record with a 4.71 ERA last season as a rookie, will make his second start after coming off the injured list. He was tagged for five runs on eight hits in 2 2/3 innings in his first outing on Monday, leaving following a rain delay in a 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. |
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04-23-23 | Blue Jays -132 v. Yankees | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After battling against the Yankee ace Saturday, I see the Blue Jays hitting Yankee starter Clarke Schmidt early and often Sunday. Schmidt is yet to make it past four innings in a start, and has allowed at least three runs in each outing. Runs will be harder to come by for the New York offense against Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been the opposing pitcher at Yankee Stadium 14 times in his career. Although he took some lumps earlier in his career with the Orioles, he posted a 1.42 ERA in two starts in New York last season. Gausman also is 9-5 with a 2.52 ERA in his last 19 road starts dating back to last season. |
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04-22-23 | Padres -140 v. Diamondbacks | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Musgrove will be making his first start of 2023 and will likely be on a pitch count. However, Musgrove will be turning the game over to the fifth-best bullpen ERA in the middle to late innings. Kelly, on the other hand, will turn the game over to the third-worst bullpen ERA in the later innings. Keep an eye on Kelly's ability to throw strikes with the right-hander averaging three walks per outing. San Diego is 13th in baseball with nearly four walks per game and will certainly try to make Kelly work. The Padres now possess arguably the best lineup in baseball with all-stars Tatis, Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts highlighting a dominant top half of the lineup. The Diamondbacks have lost two straight games heading into game two of this series while the Padres have won two straight. The Padres have now won four straight games in Arizona heading into Friday night. Look for the Padres to gain more ground in their chase to the top with a win here. |
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04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dodgers' starter Dustin May has not pitched a whole lot due to injuries but has great stuff. He has accrued a 3.22 career ERA and a 1.06 career WHIP and has conceded two or fewer runs in three of his four starts on the season. He has great command as well and will issue very few walks. Cubs’ starter Hayden Wesneski is still learning what it takes to be an effective big league starter. The rookie surrendered eight runs in his first two outings spanning only six innings which occurred against the Reds and Mariners. While he silenced the Athletics last time out, they have the worst lineup in baseball. I expect the Dodgers' veteran lineup to get to the rookie. |
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04-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -162 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are trying to avoid their first series loss after Toronto recorded a 6-1 victory on Friday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a two-run homer in the first inning and Brandon Belt later added a two-run homer and a two-run double. Cole (4-0, 0.95 ERA) heads into today as the first pitcher in team history to record at least 30 strikeouts with a sub-1.00 ERA through his first four outings since earned runs were first recorded in 1913. He notched 10 strikeouts on Sunday when he threw a 108-pitch two-hitter in a 2-0 home win over the Minnesota Twins for his 23rd double-digit strikeout game as a Yankee, tying Ron Guidry's team record. Cole also has yet to allow a homer after leading the AL with 33 yielded last year, when he also racked up a major-league-best 257 strikeouts. Toronto starter, Manoah (1-1, 6.98 ERA) has been tagged for 15 runs while allowing four homers and 15 walks in 19 1/3 innings. Manoah has struggled to get deep into games and that means the Yankees will get a good look at a Blue Jays' bullpen that has an ERA of 4.20 to start the season. |
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04-21-23 | Red Sox v. Brewers -159 | 5-3 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston starting pitcher Nick Pivetta gave up six runs on five hits in four innings with three walks and served up one home run when facing the Los Angeles Angels last Saturday. Pivetta has allowed three runs or more in two of his three starts. Boston will play without Adam Duvall who, before being injured, was leading Boston with four home runs and 14 RBIs through the first eight games. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta is coming off a poor outing but prior to that had two strong outings in which the right hander allowed only one run on six hits through 12 innings. Milwaukee's pitching staff has the third best team ERA, the 5th best WHIP and is holding opposing hitters to the fifth lowest batting average. Boston has lost each of its last four interleague games and the Red Sox have lost 35 of the last 51 played on the road. |
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04-21-23 | Astros v. Braves -110 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitching and defense were especially strong in the series against the Padres, in which the Braves gave up a combined two runs in three games. Right-hander Bryce Elder (2-0, 1.53 ERA) gets the start on Friday, looking to continue Atlanta's excellent pitching into the homestand. Elder has struck out 17 in 17 2/3 innings over three starts thus far in 2023. Friday's contest is Elder's first against the Astros in his career. The series also is the first meeting between the winners of the last two World Series since Atlanta took two of three games at home last August. Elder is also facing a Houston offense that's not as dangerous as Atlanta's, even ignoring any inconsistency. Maybe if Jose Altuve or Michael Brantley were playing for the Astros I'd consider differently, but neither player is healthy. |
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04-21-23 | Dodgers -168 v. Cubs | 0-13 | Loss | -168 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Dodgers always have a great chance to win when Julio Urias is on the hill. They have won three of the four games that the ace has started this season. He has been on his game, limiting his opponent to two or fewer runs in all four performances. The Dodgers have won 21 of the last 24 games started by Urias. Cubs’ starter Drew Smyly has not been effective. The veteran has conceded 15 runs in his 9.1 innings of work. He has recorded a poor 4.66 ERA in his career against LA. He does not strike out many betters and has a FIP of 4.69 on the season which suggests his 4.70 ERA is justified. |
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04-20-23 | Mets -123 v. Giants | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York enters this contest rolling, while San Francisco finally ended a four-game losing streak. The Giants got a sensational performance out of the bullpen, but they have been rather mediocre through the first few weeks of the season. This is one area where New York has a significant advantage. The starting pitchers should give New York a slight edge, but it is in the bullpen where the Mets will close out this game. San Francisco has the better power production, but they have struggled to produce runs over their last five, averaging 3.71 per game. New York is just slightly better than that number over the last five (3.91), but one can understand the struggles when they were facing the Dodgers in Los Angeles for three games and, yet, they still scored 13 runs in those three games. Right now, New York clearly looks like the better team, and it makes sense to go with them in this contest. |
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04-20-23 | Reds v. Pirates -155 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates, who host the Reds for four games starting today, have won 11 of 16 since that opening set, including sweeps at Boston and Colorado. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has lost 10 of 15 and hasn't won a series since. The Pirates just completed that second sweep, winning all three against the Rockies in Denver, including a 14-3 win Wednesday. They outscored Colorado by a whopping 33-9. They have won four of their past five overall. In fact, Pittsburgh has not lost two straight games since dropping the final two games of that opening series against Cincinnati. Pirates starters have gone at least six innings and turned in a quality start in nine games in a row. In the series opener today, Cincinnati right-hander Luke Weaver is scheduled to make his season debut against Pittsburgh right-hander Roansy Contreras (1-1, 6.00 ERA). In his third start of the year, Contreras got a no-decision Saturday in St. Louis, giving up two runs in six innings. Contreras did not face Cincinnati in the earlier series but is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three career starts against the Reds, all in 2022. |
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04-20-23 | Twins v. Red Sox -111 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Kenta Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA) is scheduled to start on the mound for Minnesota today. The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Tanner Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA). Maeda exited his first start of the season due to arm fatigue, and then allowed eight hits and four runs in six innings during latest outing, on April 10 against the Chicago White Sox. Maeda skipped his next turn in the rotation and will enter the Thursday game with extra rest. He is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox. Houck won his first two starts of the year, then gave up two runs on four hits in four innings against the Los Angeles Angels during a no-decision on Friday. Houck has a 1-0 record with a 2.61 ERA two career starts vs. the Twins. In his most recent meeting with Minnesota, he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings en route to a victory on April 16, 2022. |
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04-19-23 | Blue Jays +105 v. Astros | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Luis Garcia (0-2, 7.71) will start the series finale for Houston. Despite recording a season-high seven strikeouts against the Texas Rangers on Friday in his most recent outing, Garcia was the pitcher of record in the Astros' 6-2 loss after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. He has yet to log more than 15 outs in a start this season. Garcia is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA over three career starts against the Blue Jays. He went 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two outings against Toronto last season, including a home start on April 24 during which he allowed five runs on five hits and one walk with six strikeouts over six innings but did not factor into the decision of the Astros' 8-7 victory. The Astros' lineup still is trying to find its foothold without Altuve at the top of the order. Toronto played very well against Houston last season, sporting a 4-2 record against the World Champs. |
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04-19-23 | Mets -122 v. Dodgers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's difficult to bet against Max Scherzer ever, especially not in a park where he's had extensive success pitching in. Noah Syndergaard is by no means a bad pitcher, but he hasn't been sharp in the past two starts, which he'll need to be to duel with Scherzer. Both offenses are capable of scoring in bunches, as evidenced by last year, this year, and game one of this series. When it comes to pitching in this game, the Mets have the better starter and the bullpen that's been more reliable. The Mets should take this game. |
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04-19-23 | Rangers +101 v. Royals | 12-3 | Win | 101 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas deluged Kansas City with five runs in the sixth inning and another four in the eighth en route to a 12-2 win on Tuesday. The rout improved the Rangers to 4-1 against the Royals on the season and marked Kansas City's eighth loss in its last nine outings. A win today gives Texas its first sweep since opening the season with three wins over reigning National League champion Philadelphia. Left-hander Martin Perez (2-1, 2.87 ERA) takes the mound for Texas on Wednesday. Perez scored the win his last time out, striking out four and giving up two earned runs on five hits and four walks in the Rangers' 6-2 win at Houston on Friday. Perez has a 5-1 record in 12 appearances against Kansas City dating back to 2013. He has posted four straight victories against the Royals, including in each of his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium -- the most recent a six-inning performance with six strikeouts, seven hits and four earned runs last June 27. Right-hander Brady Singer (1-1, 7.88) starts for the Royals. After an impressive first start to the season (one earned run on two hits with three strikeouts and three walks over five innings in an April 3 win against Toronto), Singer has struggled in his last two appearances. Singer gave up eight hits and five earned runs over six innings April 8 at San Francisco, then took the loss on Friday with 10 hits and eight earned runs surrendered to Atlanta over five innings. Singer is 0-2 all-time against Texas, with both starts coming in 2021. |
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04-18-23 | Brewers v. Mariners -149 | 6-5 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams have headed in opposite directions since the Padres took three of four in Atlanta April 6-9. The Braves have won six straight since that rough series, while the Padres have dropped five of seven games since that point. Snell has struggled this season and has continued to have problems with his control. Meanwhile, Strider has been striking out hitters at a prodigious rate and if he can be a bit more efficient as far as pitch count goes, he’ll be even more dangerous as the season goes forward. Right now, the Braves are hitting while the Padres are struggling at the dish despite their star-laden lineup. Strider doesn’t make it any easier for San Diego and that gives Atlanta the upper hand in this contest as they earn the win. |
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04-18-23 | Cubs -162 v. A's | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Oakland offense has been getting better and they got much better pitching in the final two games against the Mets over the weekend, they have a real challenge in Stroman. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six appearances against Oakland, but all of that damage was done against him during his time with Toronto, and he looked great against Oakland in his final two outings, both in 2019 when he allowed one run in 15.0 combined innings. Waldichuk looked “better” in his last outing, but how could he not? He had been crushed through his first two outings of the year, and he is facing a Cubs team that is not lighting up the offense. However, he has his work cut out for him facing Stroman, so Chicago will win this game easily. |
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04-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros -108 | 4-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Jose Urquidy (1-0, 2.35 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Astros on Tuesday. He tossed six scoreless innings in a 7-0 victory over the Pirates on Wednesday, allowing two hits and three walks while recording two strikeouts. Urquidy is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA over four career starts against the Blue Jays. He finished 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in two appearances against Toronto last season. In a home start against the Blue Jays last April 23, he allowed two runs on six hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. He finished with a no-decision in the Astros' 3-2 loss. Six days later, Urquidy got the win as Houston prevailed 11-7. He gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings, with one walk and six strikeouts. Right-hander Chris Bassitt (1-2, 7.63 ERA) has the starting assignment for Toronto on Tuesday. He is coming off a loss his last time out, although it was his best outing of the season. On Thursday, he surrendered two runs on four hits and three walks with seven strikeouts over six innings in a 3-1 setback to the visiting Detroit Tigers. It marked the first start of his three this season in which he didn't give up a home run. Bassitt is 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA over 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Astros. |
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04-17-23 | Pirates v. Rockies -135 | 14-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Rich Hill (0-2, 7.20 ERA) will take the mound against Colorado's Kyle Freeland (2-0, 0.96). Hill is 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA in seven career starts against Colorado, with his only win coming at Coors Field on Sept. 9, 2018, when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was his last start against the Rockies. Pittsburgh has been struggling to score runs without Cruz in the lineup. With him in the lineup, the Pirates averaged 4.7 runs a game, but have posted an average of just 3.4 since he's been out. The challenge is replacing Cruz's bat atop the order. Ke'Bryan Hayes and Ji Hwan Bae have platooned at leadoff for the past week. Freeland has looked like he did in 2018 when he finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting. He started this season by not allowing a run in his first 13 innings and left his last start with a lead before St. Louis rallied to win. Freeland is making his eighth career start against the Pirates and is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA in his previous outings against them. Freeland has learned from his struggles the past few seasons as he tries to recapture the form that saw him go 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018. |
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04-17-23 | Giants v. Marlins -117 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants have not looked good early this season. They only have one series win all season and have lost six of their last eight games after a series loss in Detroit. The Miami Marlins are playing well, collecting the victory in four of their last five games. Giants’ starter Logan Webb has not been effective. The right-hander has surrendered four runs in two of his three outings including four home runs in that span. This is not ideal considering the Giants are also having problems with the bullpen. They stand 27th with a poor 6.08 ERA. Marlins’ starter Jesus Luzardo has been outstanding, conceding only four runs in 18.2 innings pitched on the season, good for a minuscule 1.93 ERA. |
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04-17-23 | Rays -137 v. Reds | 1-8 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds, who have lost five of their last seven, will be looking to rebound from their worst loss of the season, a 14-3 thrashing at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday. The Reds surrendered 23 hits and had their starting third baseman Spencer Steer leave in the ninth inning holding his side after diving for a ground ball. Tampa just rocked All-Star Alex Manoah, and bring their powerful bats to the most home run-happy venue in MLB, Great American Ball Park. The Rays' offense should feast this series, and their pitching staff is too good to allow Cincinnati to string hits together. The Reds haven't proven they can consistently take pitchers out of the park. Expect the Rays to jump on Hunter Greene, who has been shaky in 2023, and take this game comfortably. |
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04-16-23 | Orioles v. White Sox -141 | 8-4 | Loss | -141 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox are without Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada but there's still enough firepower in this Chicago offense to win, especially with ace Dylan Cease on the bump. The veteran right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 33 strikeouts in four starts (23.1 innings) against Baltimore in his career. The Orioles are hitting left-handed pitching much better than righties this season, too .370 OBP, .866 OPS, and 27 K-rate versus left-handers and a .332 OBP, .757 OPS, and a 29% K-rate versus right-handers). |
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04-16-23 | Twins v. Yankees -155 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gerrit Cole held the distinction of leading the major leagues in strikeouts while also allowing the second-most home runs last season. This season, Cole is off to one of the best starts of his career, partially due to his ability to avoid allowing homers. He seeks a fourth straight win Sunday afternoon when the New York Yankees attempt to get a split of a four-game series with the visiting Minnesota Twins. Cole (3-0, 1.40 ERA) has won three straight starts to begin a season for the third time in his career (2013, 2020). Last year, Cole allowed three of his 33 homers and had a 6.35 ERA through his first three outings. So far, Cole has allowed 11 hits -- no HRs -- through his first 19 1/3 innings while beating the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians. Cole is 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in five career starts against the Twins. He struck out 14 in 6 2/3 innings Sept. 7 in New York. |
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04-15-23 | Braves -133 v. Royals | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Bryce Elder (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Braves on Saturday. In his most recent outing, a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, Elder allowed six hits through 6 1/3 scoreless innings. He walked one and struck out seven. Elder has never faced Kansas City. Left-hander Kris Bubic (0-1, 1.64) will get the nod for the Royals after pitching well in a no-decision against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. Bubic surrendered just two hits through six scoreless innings without issuing a walk. He also matched his career high with nine strikeouts. The Braves are destroying left-handed pitching this season. Ahead of this series, the Braves owned a .336/.411/.478 slash line in 113 at-bats against lefties. |
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04-15-23 | Guardians -165 v. Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Chad Kuhl (0-0, 8.10 ERA) will be Washington's starter on Saturday. He has gone five innings in both his outings this season, with the Nationals losing each time. Cleveland will have right-hander Zack Plesac (0-0, 9.00 ERA) as its starter. He worked seven innings and gave up two runs in a no-decision against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. Plesac, who has surrendered a home run in both of his starts, was the starter in two games that went to extra innings this season. He has made one career appearance against Washington, when he gave up two runs in a five-inning start as a rookie near the end of the 2019 season. The Guardians will have their bullpen intact behind Plesac after their Friday starter, Cal Quantrill, tossed six innings of three-run ball. The Nationals have now lost 14 of their last 18 games, including seven of their last eight home games. Cleveland has won five of its last six road games and is the much better team in this matchup. |
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04-15-23 | Orioles -113 v. White Sox | 6-7 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since allowing four runs in five innings on Opening Day, Baltimore right-hander Kyle Gibson (3-0, 3.44 ERA) has been especially sharp. Gibson enters the matinee against Chicago with victories in his first two April starts, having struck out nine and yielded three runs in 13 1/3 innings. He is coming off a Monday home win against the Oakland A's, when he yielded one run and five hits in 6 1/3 innings. Gibson will oppose Chicago right-hander Michael Kopech (0-2, 6.75 ERA) as the White Sox try to even the series. Kopech is a prime example of what has gone wrong for the White Sox. He couldn’t throw strikes in his season debut and was roughed up by the Giants, giving up five homers in a 12-3 loss. |
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04-14-23 | Rockies v. Mariners -170 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m going with the Mariners only because of their bullpen. The starting duo will have a tall task in this matchup, and I’m expecting Seattle’s relievers to make a difference down the stretch. Marco Gonzales won’t miss a lot of bats, for sure, and it’s hard to trust Austin Gomber, too, as the Rockies’ lefty has been pretty much awful over the last two years. The Mariners are not hitting the lefties well in 2023 (.607 OPS), but that could easily change when they meet Gomber. The Rockies’ bullpen is struggling early in the season, and I’m expecting to see more of the same at T-Mobile Park. |
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04-14-23 | Guardians -153 v. Nationals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quantrill has been inconsistent in his two starts but should have success against the Nationals' soft-hitting lineup. The Nationals are last in baseball in home runs thus far. In addition, they have just one win at home this season compared with five losses. The Guardians are just 29th in the league in home runs but they are exceptional at playing small ball; advancing runners, stealing bases, and timely hitting. While Williams has done a nice job getting the Nats into the middle innings in each of his first two starts, he turns the ball over to one of baseball's worst bullpens. This game will be one in the late innings by the more opportunistic Guardians. |
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04-14-23 | Diamondbacks +145 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games and three of their last five road games. They’ve been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring 22 runs in their last four games. Expect them to continue playing well in this game because they have been great against left-handers and they’re going up against Rogers, who has struggled on the mound through two starts, giving up seven runs in his first two starts. He gave up five runs the last time he faced the Diamondbacks. The Marlins also have a bullpen that has been one of the worst in the league so far, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Diamondbacks in this game. The Marlins split their last six games, but they’ve lost four of their last seven home games. They have struggled offensively at home, scoring only seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they haven’t had a lot of success against Bumgarner, who gave up seven runs in his first two starts, which isn’t bad considering he was facing the Dodgers in both games. He gave up four runs in his last four starts against Miami and will keep their offense in check. Go with Arizona to cover the money line. |
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04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have owned the Twins at Yankee Stadium over the past five seasons with 13 wins in 15 games. Rookie right-hander Brito has gotten off to a strong start with two straight wins and an ERA of 0.90. Ryan, however, was hit hard in his only start against New York last season and allowed over a run more per game on the road than at home. Ryan is not a high-volume strikeout pitcher which could lead to a big night for the Yankees' powerful bats. Heading into Wednesday's game, the Twins scored a total of six runs in their last five losses. Look for the Yankees to continue their dominance over the Twins at home. |
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04-13-23 | Phillies v. Reds -120 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled on the road in the early going of the season, losing five of their six road decisions. They have scored three or fewer runs in four of the games in that span. The Cincinnati Reds have won three out of their last four home games. Reds’ starter Nick Lodolo has been outstanding, conceding only two runs in his 12 innings of work. He just sailed through seven shutout innings against this Phillies squad last week. He has been incredible when pitching against Philly in his young career, sporting a minuscule 1.86 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in 19.1 innings, and has allowed zero home runs. |
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04-12-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -130 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays moved to 18-4 against Boston in the past 22 contests in the domed park. With No. 2 starter Zach Eflin (back tightness) going on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, the Rays called up No. 1 prospect Taj Bradley to make his major league debut. The right-handed Bradley, 22, is considered the No. 18 prospect by MLB Pipeline, No. 42 by Baseball America and No. 60 by ESPN. When Boston's Chris Sale (1-0, 11.25 ERA) returns to the mound near the town where he grew up, the veteran left-hander will look for a better start than the one in Detroit last Thursday. Boston's staff desperately need a return to form by Sale, who has looked shaky in his first two outings. Across eight innings against the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit, the lanky lefty has given up 11 hits and 10 runs with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He also has surrendered four homers. |
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04-12-23 | A's v. Orioles -177 | 8-4 | Loss | -177 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have won four of their last seven games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 16 runs in their last four games. They scored five runs in the first game of the series and won’t have trouble scoring once again because they have been great against left-handers and Waldichuk hasn’t looked good on the mound so far, giving up 14 runs in his first two starts. He has given up 19 runs in his last four road starts and is backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game. The Athletics have lost eight of their last 10 games and four straight road games. They have one of the worst offenses in the league and they played worse in recent games, scoring only one run in their last three games. Even though Kremer struggled on the mound in his first two starts, the Athletics’ offensive struggles will continue in this game because they have been terrible against right-handers, batting under .200 against them. They also struggled when they faced Kremer last season, scoring only two runs in six innings against him. Baltimore’s bullpen has also done a good job in recent games, so don’t expect them to have a hard time keeping Oakland’s inept offense in check. |
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04-12-23 | Astros -162 v. Pirates | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros have crushed lefties early on, with .292/.354/.542 slash line through 72 at-bats. That includes four of their 10 team home runs in a quarter of the at-bats. Hill also hasn't been pitching well and Father Time may have finally come to collect on a long career. Opposing him, Urquidy gets to face an offense that's not nearly as threatening, outside of Bryan Reynolds. Houston has picked up a pair of comfortable wins recently, and this will probably be another one. |
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04-11-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 0-5 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units May has been excellent in his first two starts this season as he continues to round back into form well over a year after Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Wood was roughed up in his first outing this season and struggled in all three of his starts against the Dodgers last season. The left-hander will have to contend with the powerful right-handed bats of Mookie Betts, JD Martinez and Will Smith tonight. Be wary that Wood allowed four home runs in his three starts against LA last season. Following Monday's win, the Dodgers have now won 16 of the last 20 meetings against the Giants. LA has also now won eight straight games in San Francisco. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night and for the Dodgers to win yet again. |
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04-11-23 | Yankees -159 v. Guardians | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees turn to Cole on Tuesday night and the trends certainly steer toward the Bronx Bombers. Cole was 2-0 against the Guardians in the regular season last year and followed that up with two dominant starts in the AL Divisional round. He has gotten off to a strong start this year, with two straight wins and 19 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched. Cleveland's offense is predicated on long at-bats and base running. Cole's ability to get swings and misses will keep the Guardians off the base paths. Meanwhile, Gaddis takes the mound for Cleveland and is not the swing-and-miss pitcher that Cole is. Gaddis is a contact pitcher and will struggle against this powerful Yankees' lineup. I expect the Bombers to get back on track with the long ball against Gaddis and pull away for a series-tying win in game two of the series. |