Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS after Patriots’ performances, as well as 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in Game Two of the season. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in games before New England, while also going 9-1 ATS in this series, and 6-0 ATS at home versus the AFC East. Additionally, NFL away teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 17-35-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chargers held Derek Carr to a passer rating of 69.1 while sacking him five times and picking off three passes. So the Chiefs face a much sterner test in this early AFC West Division match up. Herbert brings a 2-0 SUATS career ledger at Arrowhead Stadium into this contest and that catches our attention. The visiting team 13-4 ATS the last seventeen games in this series. I am not willing to back Kansas City in this spot. There is almost always going to be value on the road underdog when they are facing a team that the public loves. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Playing against any NFL Monday Night favorite in Game One of the season we would have won the money 67% percent of the time, as these Monday Night favorites are 32-27 SU and 19-39-1 ATS since 1980. When the Over/Under total in the game is 41 or greater points, they fall to 25-22 SU and 12-34-1 ATS, including 4-17-1 ATS in division contests. Finally, with the Broncos’ 5-10 SU and 3-10-2 ATS mark in their last 15 Monday Night contests, the points become the play in this one. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points. |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +7.5 | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts’ track record during Week 1 is absolutely dreadful – 0-7 ATS the past seven years. They’ve lost their last five openers by an average of 16.2 points. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS Week 1 mark under Frank Reich. If laying more than a touchdown opening week during Weeks 1 and 2 the past 10 years, the Colts would be 2-18 ATS. Judging by preseason, Indianapolis doesn’t look ready again this year. Matt Ryan is the team’s new quarterback. He’s past his prime and has yet to display chemistry with his new receivers, who are mediocre at best. In addition, the Texans are 6-2 in Game Ones at home, and 10-4 ATS as division home dogs of 9 or fewer points. |
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09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washed-up Joe Flacco is not a quarterback worth betting on. Flacco hasn’t been good since helping the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory – and that was 10 seasons ago. The Jets scored the fifth-fewest points in the league last season. Their defense even worse, surrendering the most points in the NFL. Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, the Ravens have scored the fourth-most points trailing only the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints. Baltimore went unbeaten during preseason again. The Ravens lost in overtime to the Raiders in last year’s opener, but were 5-0 SU and ATS during their previous Week 1 games with their average win margin being 30.2 points. |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 33 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988. |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Blowout Rating: 4 Units Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 245 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is no refuting the fact that the Rams were expected to be the stronger team at the start of the season: the season win-total posted at the Westgate Super Book was 10.5 as opposed to Cincinnati’s 6.5. But the Bengals have closed the gap, as the 4-point spread in this game matches the difference of the two teams’ preseason win-total differential. So now Burrow can become the only quarterback to ever win a Heisman Trophy, a National Championship, and the Super Bowl with a win on Super Sunday. That’s a lot of pressure, but JB9 is indeed a Super Freak and appears to be up to the task in what should be another nail-biter to conclude a 2022 postseason of thrilling games. To cap it off, consider these facts: Burrow is 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points) and 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points). Finally Cincinnati has tackled 9 playoff squads this campaign, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS, for a net -92 yards. Los Angeles has faced 10 playoff teams, going 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS, +83 net yards. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 119 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not to overstate the obvious, but Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has become Sean McVay’s Kryptonite, going 7-3 SUATS in head-to-head games, including six straight wins, along with a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games in which the 49ers sport a .333 or greater win percentage – as well as 6-0 ATS between the 7s (as a favorite or a dog of fewer than 7 points). The Niners, playing in their 17th conference championship game – the most in NFL history – escaped single-digit snowy weather at Lambeau Field last week when the Packers’ Achilles heel (it’s special teams) struck again at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt for a game-tying touchdown with under five minutes remaining. QB Jimmy Garappolo finished 11-of-19 for 131 yards and a pick to improve to 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS as a dog in his NFL career – including 12-2 ATS as a dog of fewer than five points. The concern today is Garoppolo has yet to toss a TD pass this postseason (to go with 5 INTs), posting a sub 90 Passer rating in each game. However, he is 4-1 in the playoffs, and his shiny new toy, badass wide back Deebo Samuel, is a threat to score on any play. Given the fact that playoff teams coming off consecutive underdog playoff wins are 15-8-1 ATS, including 12-4 ATS since 1990, there is only one way to look in this ‘Superman special’. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Since 1980 there has been only one team to score 40-plus points in back-to-back playoff games – Buffalo in 1991. The Bills scored 19 points and lost their following playoff contest straight up as 7-point favorites against the Giants in the Super Bowl. Finally, note that NFL playoff teams coming off an overtime win in the postseason are just 6-10 SUATS since 1980. With Kansas City lugging along a 2-16-1 ATS mark in one-score games the past two seasons, a take is in order. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers -6 | 13-10 | Loss | -102 | 79 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Divisional Dominator The Packers are 41-12 SU and 34-19 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 24-3 SU and 19-8 ATS at Lambeau Field. And speaking of losing, LaFluer also holds down a fortuitous spot where the Green Bay Packers have never lost consecutive games under head coach Matt LaFleur, going 9-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. Speaking of which, QB Aaron Rodgers does not take kindly to losing, going 45-19 SU and 42-21-1 ATS in games when the Packers are coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games against foes coming off a SU underdog win. Plus, he’s got a triple playoff revenge chip on his shoulder from a 0-3 postseason mark against the Niners. On the other side of the field, Dallas sabotaged a potential victory with 14 penalties, paving the way for San Francisco’s appearance today – yet none of them equaled a nonsensical quarterback draw without any timeouts that blew up in the Cowboys’ faces when the game clock expired before they could run another play. As a result, Dallas fell to 3-11 SUATS in its last fourteen postseason games. While the Niners were very good to us last week, we don’t see the Packers gift-wrapping 14 penalties for them this week. With NFL Division Round teams coming off a SU Wild Card underdog win just 6-30 SU and 13-23 ATS since 1998, including 1-14 SU the past nine seasons, we’re forced to go turncoat today, as we become Packer backers. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | 11-34 | Loss | -109 | 129 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Rams have a legitimate MVP candidate this season it would be WR Cooper Kupp. During the first 16 games of the season, he connected with QB Matthew Stafford 138 times, the third most in NFL history. And he led the league in receiving yards and touchdown receptions. However, in order for the Rams to move forward they need Stafford dialed in like he was when he opened the season 8-1. Since the start of Week 9, he has thrown the NFL’s second-most interceptions (11), including 4 pick-sixes. And he has never won a playoff game. Flipping the script, after a 7-0 start that had many thinking they would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Cardinals finished 4-6, and in a wildcard spot. The good news is after losing defensive lineman J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury in Week 7, it appears he’s ready to return for the playoffs. His return would be most welcomed, especially given the fact that the Cardinals were 8-2 SUATS away this season. Noting the Rams’ 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats) record this season against fellow playoff squads, as opposed to Arizona’s 5-2 SUATS and ITS marks against the same, it appears the wrong team just may be favored here today. Finally consider that playing on any .600 or greater team in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs if they are seeking same-season revenge is 17-5 ATS since 1990. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 104 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs couldn’t have handpicked a better opening round opponent this Wild Card weekend. They’ve allowed an NFL worst 7.6 yards per play in the past two weeks. Over the same span, the Steelers have averaged 4.0 yards per play on offense. Kansas City has surrendered 12.9 PPG over the last eight games of the season. Pittsburgh has averaged 297.6 YPG over the same span. After starting the season 3-4, the Chiefs enter this contest on a 9-1 overall win skein, meaning they are surging at the right time. In fact, Kansas City is 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS from Game Twelve out the past three seasons. Toss in Patrick Mahomes’ 27-1 SU and 16-11-1 ATS mark in his last 28 games during November, December, and January, and you know who will be advancing on to the divisional Round of the playoffs next week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is just 4-4 in its last eight games, losing the stats in seven of those contests. And in his last four games, QB Ben Roethlisberger has posted QB Ratings of 80.1, 56.2, 73.4 and 80.1. Yikes. That would find most starters on the bench in this league. Furthermore, Big Ben is 1-6 SU with only two ATS covers in his seven career starts as a dog of 7 or more points, while the Steel City’s 2.2 PPG in the 1Q is the lowest in the league this season – KC’s 7.6 is the best. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Cowboys | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ever since the league first expanded the playoff field to 12 teams, and began seeding them in 1990, at least four new clubs have reached the postseason every successive year. The 2021-22 lineup features seven (50%) new teams – and two of them lock horns here, while also including the likes of the Cardinals, Bengals, Raiders, Patriots, and Eagles. After a 2-5 start, the Niners won eight of their final 10 games to qualify for the postseason, beating three playoff teams in the process. That’s a pretty strong body of work. Since the 49ers began using WR/RB Deebo Samuel extensively in the backfield in Week Ten, Samuel has been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable offensive weapons. He tied for the league high with 11 touchdowns over that span, and ranked No. 4 in yards from scrimmage (1,006). On the other side of the ball, since Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 9 the offense has sputtered. Prescott ranked No. 11 in Total QBR in Weeks 1 to 6, but only No. 17 in Weeks 9 to 17. Worse, the Cowboys have beaten up on Washington and Eagles backups lately. Complicating matters, Jerry’s Boys are the worst team in the loop in Penalties Per Game (7.5) this season. Yes, Dallas was 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference play this season, but the Pokes are just 3-10 SUATS in the playoffs since 1997, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs -8.5 | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defending Super Bowl champions have fared well at home the following postseason when coming off a win, going 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS since 1990. Enter the Eagles, owners of the worst record of all teams still playing these days (read: fellow playoff foes) in the NFL. We are fully aware that you can only play the teams on your schedule, but after the Eagles followed their 2-5 start with a 7-3 run to clinch a playoff spot, it should be noted that four of those wins came against teams with a backup QB – and it’s only fair to note they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record. In fact, Philadelphia was laid to rest in each of its six games against fellow playoff squads this season. To close it out, consider that NFL playoff teams who won 4 or fewer games last season are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS since 1981 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points. |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +5.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -109 | 79 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Joe Burrow enters this scrape with a hot hand, having tossed for 971 yards in his last two starts – just three yards short of an NFL record over a two-game period. Along with rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, they have become one of the league’s mostfeared duos. With RB Joe Mixon tallying 16 TDs in 16 games this season, this is an offense no one wants to face this postseason. Meanwhile, the Raiders ride a 4-game win streak. With it, this will mark the first playoff game for both signal-callers, Derek Carr and Burrow. Las Vegas coach Rich Bisaccia became the first interim coach since 1960 to take over a team during mid-season and lead his troops to the playoffs. With the Raiders looking to avenge a 32-13 home loss to the Bengals back in November – a game much closer than the final score indicates when the contest got out of hand late (Burrow threw for 148 yards) – and the Bengals riding an 8-game losing skein in the playoffs since their last win during the 1990 season, look for Cincy to succumb to its postseason inexperience and an 0-5 SUATS record in the playoffs when entering off a loss. Take the points. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980. That should put the Raiders in the playoffs. |
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01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six. |
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01-09-22 | Bengals +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +10.5 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Chiefs were 3-point chalk two weeks ago in this game at the Super Book in Las Vegas. They were also 9.5-point favorites in this matchup at Arrowhead just five weeks ago, a game they won 22-9 despite being out yarded 404-267 yards. Given the Featherheads’ 2-8 ATS mark of late against sub .500 foes, look for the Broncos to improve on their 8-1 ATS mark when coming off a division road contest. In fact, for more, consider that Denver is 17-5 SU and 20-2 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division contest, including 13-0 ATS versus sub .700 opponents. |
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01-02-22 | Vikings +13 v. Packers | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Vikings aren’t the epitome of a “close-call” team, there isn’t one. Fourteen of their 15 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points, and last week they put the icing on the cake in their showdown with the Rams, that saw the time of possession deadlocked at 30:00 for both teams, while Minnesota outgained Los Angeles by five net yards. QB Kirk Cousins had a fine game overall, going 27-of-38 for 315 yards, one touchdown and an interception that wasn’t his fault. With the No. 8 seed Vikes sitting just on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff race, they will need to bring the kitchen sink and more here tonight. Consider that Mike Zimmer sports a sterling 19-6-1 ATS dog log when coming off a loss, including 12-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition. |
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01-02-22 | Cardinals +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 102 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points |
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01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens +3.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, are expected back for today’s fray. The Ravens are 5-2 SUATS home this season,13-2 SU last 15 games versus NFC foes. Enter the Rams, 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS last four games in this series. The Rams are just 2-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last four overall games, meaning they are not hitting on all cylinders. Making matters worse, QB Matthew Stafford had a horrible game in last week’s 30-23 victory at Minnesota, going 21-of-37 for 197 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Figure the Black Birds to be in a ‘fowl’ mood after marching down the field on their opening drive to take a 7-3 lead at Cincinnati last week, only to find themselves trailing 31-7 at the half. With the loss they fell to the No. 10 spot in the AFC playoff picture. With their backs to the postseason wall, it’s put up or shut up time for the Ravens. Consider that Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 15-8-1 ATS as a dog from Game Fifteen out, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a division contest. In addition, playing on any winning NFL home team coming off four or more losses if they are facing an opponent coming off a win is 8-0 ATS since 1980. |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals enter 4-1 SUATS this season versus .555 or greater foes. The bad news is Burrow has never won three straight NFL contests (0-3 SUATS off consecutive wins). With last week’s rout of the Ravens, Cincinnati swept Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, KC QB Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 SU versus AFC North, but only 2-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in games with the better record versus non-division foes. The fact that the Chiefs own the league’s hot-hand brings them into this fray as the favorite. Because of it, they are laying more points here than they did at Las Vegas in mid November. Given the Bengals’ 14-3 ATS log in games when coming off a win when facing AFC West foes, we’re on these live home cats today. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +4 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins +3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Starter Teddy Bridgewater is out, enter Drew Lock. The former starter knows that he is 11-5 ATS in starts with the Broncos when Denver is coming off a loss, including 8-1 ATS from Game Ten out. The Broncos hit the road in the first of three straight travelers sporting a 7-2 ATS mark in these games. Meanwhile, the Raiders return home after Monday’s makeshift game in Cleveland, where they edged the Browns 16-14, to keep their playoff hopes alive. The problem is the Black-and-Silver are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at Allegiant Stadium, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when hosting .500 or greater opponents. |
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12-26-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bengals | 21-41 | Loss | -100 | 98 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Baltimore was a team with 17 players on injured reserve, five more on the COVID list, plus four more starters who were neither on IR or COVID-IR but were inactive. By the end of Sunday’s game, six of their top seven corners from the start of the season were gone, so perhaps playing for the win, rather than going up against Aaron Rodgers in overtime was the lesser of two evils. Cincinnati returns home off a gutsy 5-point win at Denver. As a result, they hold down the top spot in the AFC North, and would play Indianapolis should the playoffs begin this week. The problem for the Bengals today, though, is their feeble 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS mark as division home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as well as QB Joe Burrow’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in the NFL when Cincinnati is coming off a win. And with that it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: Baltimore is 13-6-1 ATS as a division road dog under head coach John Harbaugh, including 9-0 ATS in its last nine games. |
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12-26-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Falcons | 16-20 | Win | 104 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jared Goff’s best effort of the season may prevent Detroit from landing Kenny Pickett. Perhaps this performance will persuade the team to keep him for one more year. Goff misfired just five times, going 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s hair-raising 30-12 win over Arizona as 13-point home underdogs. It was just the 8th time since 1980 that a home dog of that size has managed to pull the rug out on its pricey guest. And for what it’s worth, six of those seven teams hit the road in their next contest where they went 4-1-1 ATS. With that we call in the Falcons, a team that is 0-9 ITS (In The Stats) since their Bye week in October. In addition, Nate Davis of the USA TODAY reports that the Lions’ upset win over Arizona marked just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a team with fewer than two wins beat a 10 win-team. Detroit’s 4.6 Yards Per Rush is its highest since 1997, and it fits like a glove into Atlanta’s 4.3 YPG Rush Defense. |
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12-26-21 | Chargers -10.5 v. Texans | 29-41 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bolts left a bushel full of points off the scoreboard, while ‘analytically’ deciding to go for the jugular on 4th downs instead of taking the 3-point layups. Here’s hoping a wave of common sense hits the Chargers like Omicron before their playoff hopes suddenly need a 9-1-1 booster shot. The good news today is the Chargers are 31-12 SU and 33-8-2 ATS all time versus the AFC South, including 20-3-2 ATS since 2009. The other is Houston’s recent 0-4 ATS ledger against the AFC West as well as its 1-7 SUATS mark at home in games when coming off a win. |
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12-26-21 | Giants v. Eagles -10.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas held Glennon to a 24.8 passer rating and forced three picks last week as he is 6-25 in his NFL career starts, including 1-16 in his last seventeen. Things were so bad for the G-Men last week that WR Kenny Golladay led the team in receiving with three catches for 53 yards, while Sterling Shepard tore his Achilles on the fi nal drive of the game when he collapsed on a non-contact injury. Ouch. With the Eagles on the road to recovery following their 2-5 start to the season, and anxious to avenge an ugly 13-7 loss at New York a month ago, we only have eyes on the ostracized birds today as they improve to 5-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive division bouts. |
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12-25-21 | Colts +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 17 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Vikings last 10 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points. And while it appears the 4-9 Bears look like they’ve gone into early hibernation, the fact remains they were still mathematically alive in the playoff race entering this weekend. Given Minny’s not so mighty 1-10 ATS record in its last eleven Monday Night road games, we’ll have our hand out looking to take as many points as we can get tonight. |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore loss vs Green Bay yesterday would vault Cleveland into first place in the AFC North, while also being the No. 4 seed in the current NFL playoff picture, with a win tonight. They will likely have to get by without the services of RB Kareem Hunt (ankle), but D’Ernest Johnson has filled in admirably during his frequent absences this campaign. Las Vegas’ 0-5 SUATS record the past three seasons in games after tackling Kansas City works in Cleveland’s favor, as does the Raiders rotten 1-4-1 ATS record in this series when coming off consecutive losses. Don’t look for the Browns to blow this golden opportunity. |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 102 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brady is just 2-4 ATS at home in his career in division games when coming off a SUATS home win, including 0-3 ATS against foes coming off a win. In addition, the Bucs bring a sour 0-4 ATS mark into this fray in the first of consecutive division duke-outs. On the opposite side of the field, the Saints kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win at the Jets last week, knowing they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division roadies. The Saints’ offense was a Sean Payton special, with all Taysom Hill runs and short passes and Alvin Kamara touches. Hill, despite a broken middle finger, misfired on just six occasions, as he seldom went downfield. He finished 15-of-21 for 175 yards, but did most of his damage on the ground. He scrambled 11 times for 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Kamara, meanwhile, rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 attempts. He also caught four passes for 25 receiving yards. That’s what you get with the Saints these days. Tie in Payton’s 47-26-3 ATS all-time dog log, including 21-4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off consecutive wins, and we’ve suddenly got the makings a live, double-digit division dog tonight. We seal the deal knowing that playing on any NFL away team in a division game on Sunday Night that is coming off a win of more than 10 points if they’re facing an opponent coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year is 11-1-1 ATS since 1980. |
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12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -8.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Deebo Samuel is practicing fully this week after being hampered in Week 14. Fred Warner, the 49ers' most important defensive player, also is primed for a big game after dealing with an ankle injury.. When the Falcons step up in class, they usually get hammered. Witness their 40-point loss in Dallas, their 25-0 blanking at the hands of New England, and a pair of double-digit defeats to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS versus winning teams. The 49ers are putting it all together for a playoff run and should win by double digits. |
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12-19-21 | Titans +1 v. Steelers | 13-19 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If the Steelers start slowly again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense. Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman -- the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA -- as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Any team with any realistic shot at a Super Bowl needs help from the defense, and it’s worth noting the Cards’ stop-unit has been out-yarded in three of its last five games. The Rams will look to exploit that tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in their last four-division contests after surrendering fewer than 10 points in its last game, as well as 8-1 SUATS the last nine games in this series (the loss being a 37-10 defeat in L.A. in Game Four this season). Given the Redbirds’ ruinous 1-7 ATS mark in its last seven games as a division host, as well as its 2-10 ATS record at home on Monday Nights, and head coach Sean McVay’s 10-5 SUATS on the division road, including 3-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, which all sets up perfectly knowing that Arizona head coach Kingsbury is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite with the Cardinals, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points. |
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12-12-21 | 49ers +1 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tomlin is 0-5 ATS in his NFL career after upsetting a division rival when facing a non-division foe coming off a SUATS loss. Worse, a loss by Mike Zimmer, and his tenure with Minnesota could be over by season’s end. It’s what happens to coaches who have delivered 2 playoff wins in 8 seasons. Tonight, he’ll look to rely on his 25-7-1 ATS career record in non-division tilts when coming off a loss, including 11-1 ATS versus AFC opponents. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is also 4-0-1 ATS on Thursdays against non-division opposition coming off a win. Consider that teams who lose to a winless opponent during the second-half of the season are 5-1-1 ATS since 1980 at home in non-division contests the following game. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Suddenly, the Patriots’ 2-4 start to the season seems like a distant memory as they ride a 6-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. New England is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when on a six-game-exact win skein since 2007. NFL teams on a 6-0 SUATS-exact win skein are 6-1 SUATS in division games when coming off an ATS win of 14 or more points. That’ a lot for Sean McDermott to digest given the fact that Buffalo is 3-31 SU and 12-21-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2001, including 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS home. After its 4-1 SUATS start, Buffalo enters tonight’s game just 3-3 SUATS in its past six contests. With Belichick riding a 9-1 ATS mark in his last ten games as a division road against foes coming off a win, we can’t fade that. |
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12-05-21 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Mike Tomlin is 20-7 SU and 17-8-2 ATS in his NFL career after allowing more than 30 points in a contest, including 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS at home. As a result of Sunday’s 41-10 pummeling, Pittsburgh now resides in last place in the AFC North. There is nothing better than a red-faced angry dog who embarrassed us as a 5* Best Bet last week, especially at home in division games. With that being said, Big Ben is 8-4 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home dog in this league. However, to seal the deal consider that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS as a division dog against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher: Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006 |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6 | 31-6 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Siemian owns an 88.9 QB Rating in his four starts this season, throwing 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He is also 9-5 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in his NFL home starts, including 4-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss of more than 3 points. More important, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in this series, as well as 7-0-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 6 points. Knowing that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog – and provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug – look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thanksgiving Day here tonight. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater NFL non-division home dog who was a playoff team last year if they’ve won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games and they’re facing a foe coming off an ATS loss of 7 or more points is 14-1-1 since 1996. |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | Top | 32-13 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 55 m | Show |
5* NFL Game of the Week The Bengals were battered, 41-16, by the Browns in a big step-up game for Cincinnati as they enter this contest reeling with a 0-2 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) ledger, as the magical elixir that was a 5-2 SUATS start to the season has disappeared. Sure, they may be coming in with a week of rest, but the fact of the matter is the black cats are 0-6 ATS when coming off a Bye as well as 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in non-division games versus foes coming off a double-digit defeat as an underdog under head coach Zac Taylor. Consider that NFL away teams coming off one home game that was preceded by three away games are 7-17 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS versus sub .600 non-division opponents. |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 89 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We realize the Monsters of the Midway tend to stay in a deep sleep following Bye weeks, but a four-game losing streak has the natives restless. The price range also puts the Bears in a good situation, as they’re 8-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 4 or more points, while bumbling Baltimore shows up 0-5 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points. Like Shakira’s hips, these numbers don’t lie. |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
4* NFC Division Game of the Day Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As far as the Rams are concerned, they will be monitoring QB Matthew Stafford’s inured back. At halftime last week he was just 9-of-16 for 62 yards and the pair of picks. A bigger problem looms on the other sideline where slumping San Francisco is just 1-11 the last dozen games when playing at home in Santa Clara. Frisco appears destined for its sixth losing season in seven years. With Los Angeles 5-1 ATS as a division road favorite of late, and the Niners 0-4 SUATS at home this season, as well as 1-3 SUATS in their last four games under the Monday Night lights, we’ll back the better team tonight. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 90 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units QB Tom Brady is 20-4 SU against everyone other than New Orleans since joining the Bucs, but only 1-3 SU versus the Saints. On the other side of the field, the WFT enters on a 0-4 SUATS slide knowing that head coach Ron Rivera is 12-1 ATS against the NFC South (his former division) when his troops are coming off a SUATS loss. And speaking of the NFC South, Washington sports a 12-3 ATS log as a dog of more than 3 points against this division. With the Bucs 0-5-2 ATS versus NFC East opponents, and Ron Rivera is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during the regular season in his NFL career against foes coming off a Bye, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS versus non-division foes, we have to go with the WFT. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game. |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | Top | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Once again, Jacoby Brissett filled in for peanut brittle Tua Tagovailoa, who sat the game out with a broken finger. Interestingly, 11 of the 16 AFC teams own winning records after nine weeks of the season while just one team in this matchup checks that box. Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback this season to win three games after trailing by double-digits, digging the Ravens out of a 17-3, second-quarter hole with both his arm (266 yards, three touchdowns) and his legs (120 yards on 21 carries). The bottom line is Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three games when coming off a win, and 1-4 SUATS on Thursdays. Next to Baltimore’s 8-0 ATS record in this series, 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus the AFC East, and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays. |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tomlin has been unable to get his troops to fully focus under the Monday Night lights where they are 1-4 ATS at home under his lead in non-division contests, including 0-3 ATS when coming off a win. For Chicago, it was another week of frustration, as they enter this contest on a 0-3 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) slide. Despite failed fourth-quarter drives, QB Justin Fields still had a solid performance in a losing cause against San Francisco last week, going 19-of-27 for 175 yards, one touchdown and the pick. He also scrambled 10 times for 103 rushing yards and another score. However, Chicago brings a 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS ledger in games against the AFC North, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with a losing record into this battle. |
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11-07-21 | Titans +8 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Titans are 5-0 ATS as a dog versus .800 or greater opponents, as well as 5-0-1 ATS in this series. For the Rams, sometimes NFL scores can be misleading. This is one of those instances. The Rams dominated the Houston game from start to finish, eventually leading 38-0 before allowing the Texans 22 unanswered points in junk time. However, they will need to exert more of themselves against this red-hot juggernaut today. With a Monday night fight up next against division rival San Francisco, and just 2-8 ATS before Monday nighters, look for the Rams to fall tonight. Consider that NFL Sunday Night dogs of more than 7 points are 18-4 ATS when facing a non-division foe coming off a win of more than 14 points. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition, the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990. The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980. . |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts are in must-win mode as they enter a two-game stretch of games against the lowly Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in overtime to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw one interception with less than two minutes left in regulation and another in overtime. The Jets come into this one off a big win but that euphoria may be short-lived, as they arrive in Indianapolis with an 0-3 ATS mark in Thursday action, and a 1-7 SUATS failure when coming off a win as a 7-point or larger dog. The Colts counter with a 14-4-1 ATS effort on Thursdays, and a near-perfect 5-0-1 ATS mark after tangling with the Titans. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 6.6 yards per play. Even though we can expect a bounceback from the K.C. offense -- it helps that Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out -- the Chiefs' defense will leave the backdoor open. New York has already covered at Washington and New Orleans (outright win). The Giants got blown out at Dallas but that was a game in which Daniel Jones got knocked out early. Back New York to improve to 23-7 in its last 30 as a road dog. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is still frothing following last season’s 31-28 home loss to Dallas as 7-point chalk, a loss to backup QB Andy Dalton that snapped a 3-game Vikings win streak, as well as a 4-game Dallas losing skid. In the end it eventually cost the 7-9 Vikings a losing season. Now back at the scene of the crime, Minny will look to improve on its 10-2 ATS series ledger, while Zimmer looks to pad his 16-3-1 ATS career mark at home against .500 or greater non-division foes. The Boys’ 11-17 SU and 9-19 ATS record against NFC North foes since 2009 adds another log to the fire. In addition, consider that 5-1 NFL teams in Game Seven, coming off five wins in a row, are 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS since 1980 if not favored by more than 3 points, including 0-6 SUATS versus sub .600 opponents. |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 98 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Geno Smith, following last week’s winning ticket, is 8-5 ATS as a dog in games in which his team is coming off a loss. Seattle was losing 14-0 at intermission, as they produced just 65 net yards of offense compared to 177 for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh was in complete control of the game. However, Seattle made some amazing adjustments at halftime. The bottom line is we can’t ignore the fact that head coach Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU and 30-13-3 ATS at home in games in which his team does not sport a winning record, including 14-5-1 ATS as a dog. |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens -6.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -107 | 91 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Unit Blowout Figure the Ravens will not let the success of the last two home wins the past two weeks cut short their five-game win skein, not behind a burgeoning defense that has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards. To confirm those thoughts, consider that NFL teams in the 3rd of a 3-game home stand, with a bye week on deck, are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season. Playing on any NFL home team coming off consecutive home games who has a week of rest on deck if they scored more than 3 points in their last game and they are facing an opponent coming off a win of more than 7 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +5.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points. |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Bears’ defense showed their toughness and talent while leading the team to a road win in Las Vegas, their second victory in as many weeks. QB Justin Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown, but he played mistake-free football, and came up with some clutch plays to support the great effort by his defense. With it, Chicago is 3-2 and is suddenly positioned to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points. Consider that the Bears are 7-1 SUATS when coming off two win under head coach Matt Nagy. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Consider that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in Thursday performances while Tampa Bay has coughed up the bucks on Thursdays going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 123 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Jackson has chewed up and spit out foes coming off a win, going 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS with Baltimore, including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus .333 or worse opponents. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Colts limp into Baltimore with an 0-5 ATS ledger in their last five meetings with the AFC North. The Clincher: NFL road teams, coming off consecutive away games and a SU underdog win, are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS when facing a foe coming off consecutive wins, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS if the visitor owns a sub .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sean Payton has a 49-28-1 ATS career mark in games when coming off a loss, including 25-10 ATS away. While Washington is 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games when hosting visitors from the NFC South. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Sunday’s win over San Francisco, Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and is now 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS while trying to avoid the trifecta. He is also 18-6-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home – not to mention 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Meanwhile, the Rams roll into the Emerald City off their first loss of the season knowing they are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division duels on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when laying points. Given Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s glossy 28-12 SU and 27-10-3 ATS NFL career mark in home games when his team does not own a winning record (.500 or less), we’ll be back on the take with the Seahawks tonight. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-27, as 3-point road dogs in December of last year, a costly loss that denied Vegas a winning campaign. Carr and head coach Jon Gruden look to get even knowing that the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Monday Night games, while the Chargers own a 1-3-1 ATS mark in their last five Monday Nighters. The Chargers have blown a fuse when favored at home over AFC West foes, going 3-8 ATS of late, and L.A. is an even worse 2-12 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. Speaking of home, there may be more Raiders fans than Chargers’ faithful at SoFi Stadium tonight. Take the points. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Is a letdown in order for the Rams after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs last week? According to the well-oiled machine, the answer is yes – given the fact that teams who upset the defending champs are just 26-35 SU and 24-36-1 ATS when facing a division rival the following game, including 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS since 1980 when the divisional foe arrives off a SUATS win in its previous game. Stafford is only 3-10-1 ATS in division games when coming off back-to-back wins. Since the Cards are currently on a 9-3-1 ATS roll as single-digit division road dogs, a take is in order today. |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in home openers the last six seasons. Meanwhile, QB Jameis Winston’s production last week almost mirrored his Week One performance – without all the touchdowns. Winston wasn’t asked to do much as he threw 30 fewer times than his counterpart, Mac Jones did. While being put under wraps, Winston didn’t make any mistakes, going 13-of-21 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s difficult being productive when you’re swathed in Saran Wrap. Consider this shocker that the Giants are the NFL’s best road dog the last four years, going 17-3 ATS since 2018. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 125 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The history book shows us that Dallas is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last ten division home games, while Philly was 0-3 SUATS away in division battles last season. Consider that NFL Monday Night home teams coming off consecutive road games, the last a SUATS win, facing opponents coming off a home game, are 32-11-1 ATS. |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 101 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Game Three NFL teams are just 24-48-2 ATS in home openers when hosting non-division foes. Given the Niners’ 3-9 ATS record in Sunday Night games when coming off consecutive wins, including 1-8 ATS the last nine games, we gladly hand it off to the fact that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS |
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09-26-21 | Saints +3 v. Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit Payton brings a 48-28-1 ATS career mark into this contest when coming off a loss, including 24-10 ATS when his team is on the road. On the other side of the coin, the Pats defense is carrying the offense this season while rookie QB Mac Jones learns on the job. Jones was 22-of-30 for 186 yards in last week’s rout of the Jets. With the Pats coming off a division win last week and having |
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09-26-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Lions | 19-17 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a comeback for the Ravens over the Chiefs! Outscored them 12-0 in the 4th quarter. They dealt Mahomes the first loss of his career in September. Lamar Jackson is 14-5-1 ATS on the road in his career & has become the fastest QB since 1970 with 3,000+ rushing yards (48 games). Thus, he now has surpassed Michael Vick (8) for the most games with 100+ pass yards and 100+ rush yards since 1960. In addition, the Lions have coughed up 30 or more points in each of their last eight contests, going 1-7 ATS in the process. |