Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota QB Sam Darnold after being roughed up by the Lions last week is only 12-22-2 ATS overall away in the NFL. Included inside those numbers is a 0-7 ATS ledger when coming off a SUATS loss against foes coming off a loss. He has also never taken a snap in the NFL postseason. QB Matthew Stafford is 4-4 SUATS playoffs and 4-0 ATS in his career as a home dog versus foes off a double-digit loss. He is also 2-0 SUATS with the Rams in this series. That figures to work well with head coach Sean McVay’s 7-4 outright record in the playoffs. Key Stat: Since Week 8, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua playing every week, they’re 8-3 with wins over the Vikings and Bills. More significant Key Stat: The Vikings are 14-0 outright and 10-2-2 ATS this season when they hold opponents to fewer than 30 points and 0-3 when they don’t. The Rams know their ‘magic number’.

Rating: 2 Units

The accomplishment of soon-to-be NFL Rookie of the Year Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels has been tantamount to their success. His 100.1 QB Rating blows Sam Howell’s 78.9 QB Rating last season out of the water. And for what it’s worth, this will mark the first Wild Card game since 2020 to feature a pair of teams that averages over 28 points per game in the regular season. With the Bucs 9-2 ATS coming off a SU win and ATS loss, and Washington riding a five-game playoff losing skein, look for QB Baker Mayfield to improve to 4-1 ATS in his NFL playoff career.

Rating: 2 Units

Green Bay paid a heavy toll in last week’s stunning loss to the double-digit underdog Bears. Not only would a win have moved the Pack up to the No. 6 seed, but QB Jordan Love left the game with an elbow injury, and star WR Christian Watson suffered a non-contact season-ending knee injury. Thus, they limp into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak with more question marks than the Riddler. In addition, Green Bay was 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against foes with a win percentage greater than .615 this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills were 2-3 against teams that have reached the playoffs, allowing 108 more yards per game against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams. Buffalo’s defense also allowed 33 points a contest vs. playoff teams, the fourth-most all-time by a playoff team. The only teams in 2024 to allow more points per game vs. current playoff teams were the Patriots, Titans, and the Bengals – and they’re all on vacation. And it should be noted that Denver led the NFL in quarterback sacks with 63 this season. You can’t fade Sean Payton’s 40-25-2 ATS career dog log.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chargers bring the No. 1 overall-ranked scoring defense into this contest. The Bolts are also one of four teams, along with the Broncos, Commanders, and Vikings, that qualified for the playoffs after missing out last season. Charger HC, Jim Harbaugh, is 0-2-1 ATS in NFL playoff games against sub .700 foes while NFL playoff home dogs a sterling 24-10-1 ATS in their first postseason game. Additionally, playing on any NFL home dog (Houston) in the playoffs if they lost their previous home game outright and they were not a dog of six or more points in their last game is 12-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider this: Since the NFL implemented the playoff seeding system in 1975, the No. 1 seed has made it to the Super Bowl 26 times, with the NFC No. 1 seeds winning 16 of those and the AFC No. 1 seeds winning 10 times. The No. 5 seed has made it to the Super Bowl three times. We know the Lions are 8-0 ATS in this series and 9-0-1 ATS at home off back-to-back road games. Detroit is also a jaw-dropping 14-2 ATS against .700 or greater opposition. Conversely, the Vikes are just 1-6-1 ATS after hosting a division foe and 2-9 ATS when seeking quadruple revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Backup Carson Wentz will make his first start for Kansas City today. He is 9-5 SUATS in his NFL career, starting behind .800 or great teams, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. This is the highest line Denver has had to hurdle in this series since 2014, when they laid 13-points at home in a game they won but failed to cover. KC has been the favorite in the last 13 games in this series, making them a fully qualified DIA play (Dominating Dogs In Action Doing It Again). Fianally, Kansas City is 14-4 outright and 16-2 ATS as a road dog since 2016, including 4-0 SUATS in division games.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

With the Rams having climbed the mountain and now breathing playoff air, and currently 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS at home against triple-revenging foes, we’re riding the Seahawks as they zero in on a 10-win season, which is what Los Angeles will have if they fall to Seattle today. With that, we’re all over the mad-as-hell triple-avenging division visitor with the better offense and defense. Finally, playing against any .500 or greater NFL team in its final game of the season if they are coming off three consecutive revenge wins is 9-1 ATS.

AFC East Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Most of Miami’s early lack of success is attributable to the loss of QB Tua Tagovailoa in the early portion of the campaign. The Tongan has pled well in division duke-outs with a 13-8 SU and 12-8-1 ATS career mark, including 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS versus losing division foes. He missed the team’s victory at Cleveland because of a hip injury, and he is questionable this week. This means Tyler “Snoop” Huntley may be making a fifth start for the Dolphins in 2024. The Jets can’t seem to get off the runway in this series, just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS since 2018. They are also just 2-10 ATS when coming off double-digit SUATS losses and 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen puppy roles. With the Miami’s 11-2 ATS as a favorite coming off a favorite role in their previous game, it’s time we say goodbye, Mr. Rodgers. Finally, Miami QB Tyler Huntley is 4-1 SUATS in his NFL career against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS away

Rating: 3 Units

The Steelers are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture and have clinched a playoff spot. They can claim the No. 3 seed (along with the AFC North title) with a win or tie here – and a Steelers loss. Hence, the Burghers cannot win the division on their own. They would need a Ravens’ loss to the Browns in the earlier game (yeah, sure). The truth is they are not playing their best ball at the moment, going 0-4 In The Stats in their last four games, while Russell Wilson is looking the retread he was when the Seattle Seahawks cut him loose. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been scratching and clawing to stay alive in the AFC playoff chase, and they are not about to fold their hand today. Not with Cincinnati clinging precariously onto playoff eligibility and QB Joe Burrow bringing a 29-12 ATS career road mark into this scrape. The Bengals are also 7-1 ATS away when coming off an ATS win versus foes coming off an ATS loss. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog or favorite of 3 or less points with triple revenge- if they are coming off consecutive wins and are facing a stumbling foe coming off a double-digit SU loss are 10-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The San Francisco 49ers are not only banged up, but they're not playing well, and they've scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers also have nothing to play for, with them bounced from playoff contention. The Detroit Lions are not only 13-2 SU, but they're 10-5 ATS, and they need to keep winning to have a shot at the top seed in the NFC. The Lions should also have even more motivation after losing to the 49ers in the playoffs, a game they believe they should have won. Give me the Lions by a touchdown.

Rating: 3 Units

If Green Bay beats Minnesota by three or more points today and then Chicago next week, they will earn a higher seed than the Vikings - should Minny fall to Detroit on the season’s final week. Keep in mind that the visiting team in this series is 3-0 ATS, and Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after hosting a Monday Night game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points. And then there is the round robin with the Packers 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen and the Vikes 0-4 ATS in Game Sixteen. 

Rating: 3 Units

With a little less than 10:00 to go in the 1st quarter, Jalen Hurts was concussed w/ the Eagles up 7-0 and driving on the Commanders. Despite scoring on that drive w/ Kenny Pickett, the Eagles never fully recovered from the loss of Hurts. Dallas has won 4 of 5 & with their only loss coming on that crazy blocked punt vs the Bengals on MNF. How amazing is Brandon Aubrey? He was 4/4 FG (58, 49, 58, 53) vs the Bucs. Micah Parsons tied for the 5th for fewest games with 50 career sacks (61).

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bucs hold a 57% chance of breaking through. That improves to 70% with a win here and 85% with a pair of season-ending victories. The good news is they have beat Carolina like a drum of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings while cashing eight of the previous eleven games as a division home favorite of five or more points. In addition, the Panthers are 0-5 SUATS in Game Sixteen of the season in the last five years. Finally, Carolina is 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS versus winning opponents behind QB Bryce Young, including 0-5 SUATS against opponents with an .800 or fewer win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rams in post-Bye week games are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS the past two regular seasons after enjoying a respite. So, with the Redbirds 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games and the Rams 8-1 ATS when seeking division revenge from a single loss, along with being 12-1 SUATS during the month of December behind QB Matthew Stafford, we’re left with only one real option here today, and it’s Ram call.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and final playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the AFC West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last five games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. Finally, the Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Following a 1-5-1 ATS start to the season under new head coach Jerod Mayo, the Pats have come together enough to go 5-3 ATS in games since, allowing more than 400 yards just once. Today marks their first game in Foxborough since Dec 1. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series and are 6-2 ATS at home on Saturdays, which is a near mirror opposite of the Bolts’ 2-8 ATS record in their last ten games on Saturdays. The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS after scoring 34-plus points in their previous contest.  Finally, playing on any NFL home dog from Game 14 onward with a .250 or fewer win percentage if they won four or fewer games last season going against an opponent whose team net Yards Per Rush is not a positive is 16-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

The Seahawks currently have an 11% chance of crashing the party. That improves to 30% with a pair of season-ending victories. All they can do at this point is to beat whoever they line up against, and it starts with the hibernating Bears today. In truth, it’s more like comatose Chicago as they are immersed in a nine-game losing streak since their Bye week in late October, a result of having scored more than 20 points in only one contest since being hypnotized. On the other side of the field, Seattle checks in at 5-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. Consider as well, that NFL teams who faced the Detroit Lions in their previous game are 2-11-1 ATS this season, including 0-5-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs enter at 1-4 ATS in weekday games when coming off a win, while the Steelers have not only cashed in each of their last five games against AFC West foes, but they are also 18-5-5 ATS as home dogs under Mike Tomlin, including 11-1-2 ATS from Game Eight out. The Burghers also enter today’s fray tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North. Still, they own the tie-breaker with the Ravens and are not anxious to give it up today, especially with the Black Birds set to kick off next against the Texans in the game following this.

Rating: 2 Units

The 10-4 Cheeseheads are currently the NFC’s No. 6 seed in the NFL Playoff Picture. You also need to know that New Orleans has been 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games under the Monday Night lights and 0-4 SUATS against the NFC North in the past two seasons. Remember, the Packers’ sneaky-good defense has held four of its last eight foes to season-low yards.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite the answer for the Bills in the Motor City after going down in the City of Angels. Josh Allen (23/34, 362 pass yards) w/ 4 more TDs and zero turnovers vs possibly the best team in the NFC. Pats went 0 for 6 on 3rd down conversions vs the Cards & have lost 11+ in BB years for the 1st time since 1992-93. New England has two 4+ losing streaks this year & Drake Maye has 6 turnovers during this current 4 game streak. 

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

According to Seahawks’ head coach Mike MacDonald, all signs are positive for Smith heading into this pivotal matchup with the Vikings. If Seattle wins out, they will be the NFC West champions. Minnesota’s issue starts with the fact that they are 0-5 SUATS in Game Fifteen in the last five years. They are also 1-7 outright in the previous eight games in this series (3-5 outright) and 1-6 ATS after hosting a division game. On the flip side, Seattle counters at 9-2 ATS as a dog off a loss against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game Eleven out when off three straight home games if they are coming off a win and failed to beat the spread by 18 or more points is 35-9 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona has scored 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NFC South, while the Panthers have turned into pussycats against the AFC West at 1-4 ATS. Toss is Carolina’s 0-5 ATS log as non-division home dogs of four or fewer points, and you know where we’ll be today. Finally, Carolina is 2-16 ATS in outright losses as a non-division home dog against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Rematch of Thanksgiving Day when the Bears almost pulled off the shocker of the year. However, poor clock management did both Chicago & Matt Eberflus (fired) in. Despite giving up 48 pts to the Bills at home, the Lions have clinched consecutive playoff berths for the first time since 1993-95. Jared Goff threw for 494 yards vs Buffalo to go along with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions. Lions are 6-0 before taking on the Vikings.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We realize that having the Cowboys on deck for Philly isn’t as meaningful today as in years past (0-8-1 ATS before Dallas). But that cloud still rests above the Eagles, as in the three games away from Lincoln Financial Field against winning teams (projected playoff teams) this season, Philadelphia is 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) by an average of -117 net yards. With the Commanders 7-1-1 ATS as small home dogs of fewer than five points when coming off a win, and Game Fifteen division home dogs standing 6-1 ATS against foes coming off a win, you know the right side of this game. Finally, NFL home teams coming off a one-point win-no-cover that was preceded by a Bye week are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2020 when playing with revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Wilson brings a 41-22-3 ATS career mark as an underdog into today’s contest, including 19-7-1 ATS in division games. While the Black Birds came alive in last week’s 21-point win over the Giants, it was against the Giants. Remember, Pittsburgh has won eight of the last nine games in this series, and Baltimore is 0-4 SUATS in its last four division games when seeking revenge, as well as 2-9 ATS laying points after taking them the previous game. Finally, playing against any NFL home favorite of 8 or fewer points on Saturday during the regular season if they are facing a .570 or greater foe coming off a SUATS loss is 10-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The Denver Broncos continue to shine. They have won four straight games. The Broncos have been dominant in the second half, posting a 6-2 record in their past eight bouts. The Los Angeles Chargers are stumbling at the worst time, dropping three of their past four games after a 40-17 home defeat against the Buccaneers last week. This season, Los Angeles has been more productive on the ground than in the air. They only opt for the pass in 55% of their plays. This is good news for the Broncos who are conceding an average of 98 rushing yards per game, good for fifth. J.K. Dobbins was key in the Chargers win against the Broncos in the first meeting but the running back is not playing in this one. Also, Herbert has been kept in check, posting 218 or fewer passing yards in four of his past five games. The Broncos have momentum while this Chargers team seems to stumble when it matters most.  Sean Payton is 17-9 SU and 19-7 ATS record as a division dog in a revenge-seeking role. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings just keep winning games and now Sam Darnold’s name is in the MVP conversation. In the last game against the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings scored 42 points and they ended up winning by 21 points. The Vikings scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and that was enough for the victory. Sam Darnold completed 22 of his 28 passes for 347 yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Addison caught eight passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Jefferson finished with seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikings on the season are averaging 26.1 points while their defense is giving up 18.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 9th in the league while the defense is ranked 6th. If Darnold plays strong again here, this should be an easy victory. 

Rating: 2 Units

On paper, the Packers should be stoked, coming off a 34-31 slugfest loss to division-leading Detroit. They can take solace in knowing that Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last ten NFC West contests. However, Seattle counters at 11-1 ATS as non-division home dogs and 9-2 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday tussle. However, playing against any sub .700 NFL road team from Game Fourteen out coming off a loss that was preceded by 3 wins versus an opponent coming off consecutive wins is 14-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth for the second time in the last five years. While they hold down the No. 2 seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, the fact remains that they’ve won their past two games despite being out-yarded in both contests – yes, they were out-statted by the Panthers last week. They are also just 4-8 ATS when hosting AFC North foes. Enter their Keystone counterpart, Pittsburgh, who has cashed six times in a row at NFC sites while going 6-1 ATS after hosting a division rival. Finally, Mike Tomlin loves dogging it up as his 60-34-7 ATS career mark would attest. He’s especially adept when taking 5 or more points, going 31-12 outright and 32-10-1 ATS against foes coming off a win.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We know one thing for sure: at 7-6, they are currently +54 in overall point differential. Just ahead of them is 12-1 Kansas City at +56. It sure looks like a massive injustice to us. The Chargers are in the No. 6 slot in the AFC Playoff picture but are currently riding a 4-game ITS (In The Stats) losing skein). That finds them “leaking oil” as a favorite in this contest. We realize Tampa’s recent wins have come against the likes of the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders (7-32 combined this season), but the Bucs are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the second of consecutive AFC confrontations, including 4-0 ATS away. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-15-1 ATS after losing to the Chiefs when they sport a .454 or greater win percentage. Finally, Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is 16-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career against opponents coming off a loss, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS from Game Nine out.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Miami thawed out in time last week following their visit to Green Bay when they edged the Jets in overtime. They’ll invade Houston knowing they are 7-1 SUATS in post-Jets jousts. They are also 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, coming off a win behind Tua Tagovailoa when the Dolphins are facing a .615 or fewer opponent, as well as 5-1-1 ATS versus rested foes.  Houston is riding an 0-8-2 ATS ledger from Game Thirteen out when coming off a win of seven or fewer points. Finally, Miami is 14-8 SU and 14-7-1 ATS from Game Thirteen out during the regular season when both teams are coming off a win, including 5-0 SUATS with a .500 or fewer win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

With the No. 11 Niners – the No. 1 preseason Super Bowl choice - backs plated to the wall, and 4-0 SUATS the past three seasons on Thursdays, and the Rams just 1-6 SUATS in this series when coming off an ATS win, we look to the fact that NFL teams coming off a win in which they scored and allowed 40 or more points in their last game are 12-22 ATS, including 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

QB Joe Burrow has an MVP-type season with little to show. His 107.4 QB Rating this season ranks 4th best in the league. He also has the oddsmakers in his corner, as the sportsbooks have installed the 4-8 Bengals as a road favorite here tonight. We can’t do that. Not with the Cats 2-8 ATS on the Monday Night road, and 1-4 ATS versus the NFC East, and the troubled Cowboys checking in with a 7-0 ATS record in games after Giants gatherings, and 4-1 SUATS in their last five games on Mondays, look for Dallas to improve to 5-0 ATS in this series tonight.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We love to fade coaches, players, and teams coming off record-setting efforts in their previous games. And one could hardly blame them for casting an eye on the Lions next week. The Bills are 0-5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, while the Rams are 5-0 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season. With the Bills scoring 30-plus points in each of its last six games and the Butt Heads having surrendered 30-plus points in only two games this season, we can’t help but feel the air coming out of the Bills today. Finally, Rams head coach Sean McVay is 33-18 SU and 32-18-1 ATS from Game Twelve out versus .823 or greater opponents, including 9-3 ATS as a dog of six or fewer points.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Arizona is currently 4on the outside looking in from the No. 9 slot. The Achilles heel of the Seahawks is its inability to run the ball, No. 28 in the league, as opposed to the Cardinal sporting the league’s No. 6 rushing attack. Additionally, the Seahawks are 30-61 ATS in division games in which they are outrushed during the regular season and 17-48 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than five points.

Rating: 2 Units

The biggest knock on the Vikes this week is their narrow one-point win over the Cardinals last week, in which Minnesota was out-yarded by 133 yards. Then there is Minny’s mediocre 3-6 ATS ledger at home coming off a home game. We realize the Birds have been downright dirty in this series at 1-5 ATS and against NFC North foes (1-7 ATS). However, we’ll focus instead on Cousins’ 18-9 SUATS career record when his team is off consecutive losses, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in this role against foes on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants are riding a 0-7 outright losing streak entering this contest. Just so you know, any NFL home team on a seven-game losing skid that has lost the money in each of its last five games is 7-2 ATS when facing a losing opponent, including 5-0 ATS at home. With backup QB Tommy Devito sidelined with a forearm injury, Drew Lock will be back behind center for the G-Men. Lock is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS at home in his NFL career when his team is coming off a loss. And then there are the 4-8 Aints who, like the Giants, ain’t going anywhere this season. They are 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. With the league’s smallest Giants 7-0 ATS after playing on the division road in its last game and 11-3 ATS coming off a Thursday, the numbers point one-way as New Orleans pays the price for being favored ‘by default. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game 7 out who won 7 or more games last year if they allow 4.6 or more Yards Per Rush and they are facing a .166 or fewer foe are 12-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams on Thursday, coming off a Thanksgiving Day win, are just 1-6 ATS when facing avenging foes. Meanwhile, the Packers are 5-0 outright after Thanksgiving Day performances. The Cheeseheads will need to overcome a bad case of series history, though, as they are 3-11 ATS last fourteen games against the Mouth That Roared, including 0-5 ATS when coming off consecutive wins. So, where do we go from here? If you like ‘before and afters,’ you’ll love knowing that Green Bay is 6-0 ATS before Seattle skirmishes and 6-0-1 ATS after Miami meetings. Couple it with Packers head coach Matt LaFleur’s 12-4 ATS dog log when seeking revenge – including a 3-0 SUATS mark when facing a .900 or better foe, and we’ll do our usual and go on the take tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Browns and Broncos. Man, did they have some classic battles in the AFC Championship in 1986, 1987 & 1989. Cleveland got it done in the snow globe on TNF. Since 2017, Myles Garrett & with TJ Watt lead the NFL with 11 games with multiple sacks & forced fumble. Denver is off to it's best start (7-5) since '16. Bo Nix & Peyton Manning are the only Broncos with 200+ passing yards and 2+ TD passes in 4 straight home games. Browns in the midst of a 4- game road losing streak, putting up 16 or fewer points in all 4 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore is the No. 1 team in the NFL in terms of both red zone touchdown percentage and offensive explosive play rate. We realize that the Black Birds are 8-1 ATS at home versus .700 or greater versus non-division foes, and QB Lamar Jackson is an eye-popping 23-1 outright against NFC opponents. However, the Eagles counter at 14-2 outright in their last sixteen games against AFC opposition and 3-0 ATS as dogs at AFC sites. We like dogs that can rush the ball; nobody does it better than the Eagles. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints go 2-0 SUATS to start the season by a winning margin of 91-19. Then they lost seven games in a row, going 1-6 ATS, only to follow that mess up with a recent 2-0 SUATS win skein. On the flip side, the Rams start the season 1-4 SUATS, only to come out of the Bye going 4-1 SUATS before falling to the Eagles last week. The Rams are 2-5 ATS away in Domes and 2-5 ATS against foes coming off a Bye, while the host in this series is 10-0 ATS.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 19,627 passing yards and can surpass Jameis Winston (19,737 passing yards) for the second-most passing yards by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (20,618 passing yards) has more. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins checks in at 11-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog when his team is coming off back-to-back losses, including 9-1 ATS in the last ten games. Not only is Atlanta 5-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week, but the Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off a Bye week.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers are 5-0 this season against teams that are currently above .500, but just 3-3 against teams that are under .500. Adding salt to the wound, over the past 30 years, NFL teams were 107-1 when holding their opponent to one or fewer first downs and forcing at least three turnovers while also totaling at least 350 yards of offense. The Steelers did all those things on Thursday night and still lost, which means that the NFL teams are now 107-2 in that situation. With the 4-7 Bengals one loss from having the final nail pounded into its coffin by the 8-3 Steelers, we need to consider that Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week while Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week

Rating: 3 Units

The Dolphins have reappeared with Tua back behind center, riding a 3-0 SUATS win skein. The problem tonight, though, is the weather is expected to be freezing in Green Bay, with temps in the 20s at kickoff. That’s not good news for the Frozen Fish, who has a record of 25-46-1 in outdoor games where the temperature is 40°F or colder. Miami is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven Thursday road games and 1-6-1 ATS in its previous eight games against the NFC North. Green Bay is two games behind first place Detroit in the NFC North and has held three of its last five foes to season-low yardage. The bottom line is the Packers are one of only five NFL teams rushing the ball better than 50% of the time per game this season, along with the Eagles, Steelers, Lions, and Ravens. Is it surprising that these teams are 35-9 SU and 30-13-1 ATS overall this season? Finally, the Packers are 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS at home in non-division games when not favored by more than seven points under Matt LaFleur, including 8-1 SUATS versus .454 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions are 17-5 SUATS at home when coming off wins in each of their previous three games, including 11-2 SUATS when they sport a .690 or greater win percentage. Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points are 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS when facing .500 or fewer foes, including 7-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. The Bears have defeated the Lions three times in a row on Turkey Day but are 1-3 SUATS on Turkey Day when coming off a loss of three or more points, and 0-8 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in this series when Detroit is coming off successive SUATS wins. Finally, the Lions are 17-1 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit ATS win since 2020.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

By all accounts, it was the Ravens’ worst offensive showing of the year. On the other side of the field, the Chargers blew a 21-point lead but rebounded late to pull out an exciting 34-27 win with a last second field goal. The good news for the Bolts is that they are 10-1 ATS in games after battling the Bengals. They are also 16-6 ATS on Monday Nights versus non-division foes, including 7-0 ATS when the foe enters off a win. Grab the points and consider that the Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh is 38-15 SU and 35-15-2 ATS in his NFL career versus non-division opponents, including 13-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

The Rams’ defense is suddenly standing tall these days. They pressured New England QB Drake Maye on 47.8% of his drop backs, with 11 defenders generating at least one pressure. Jared Verse generated a team leading five pressures, with four coming in less than 2.5 seconds. When pressured, Maye was 11 of 18 for 96 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Eagles, who appear ready to give the Lions a run at the No. 1 seed, have won six games since their Bye week. They are, however, just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against the NFC West and could be peering ahead to the Ravens. In addition, the Eagles' 1-5 ATS away record on Sunday Nights when coming off a win seals the deal.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Frisco is 6-1 ATS after hosting a division foe and 5-0 SUATS in Game Eleven of the season. Green Bay counters at 9-0 ATS in its last eleven games against AFC West opposition and 6-0 ATS after playing on the division road in its previous game. The Niners shine in underdog roles, going 63-26-4 ATS when taking points in games where they rushed for 110 or more yards. Finally, when San Francisco is an underdog and rushes the ball for 150 or more rush yards, they zoom to 36-4-1 ATS. And that’s where we’ll be this today

Rating: 2 Units

Nix has kick-started the Denver offense and is suddenly in the talk of NFL Rookie of the Year following last week’s season-high 307 yards and four touchdowns in the Broncos’ 38-6 burial of the Falcons. And the Denver defense hasn’t always received the credit it deserves, yet it ranks No. 3 overall in the league. Meanwhile, the Raiders ride a six-game losing streak into this game and look like a team running out of gas. That’s not good news, mainly when Denver head coach Sean Payton feasts on the road, going 52-34-2 ATS in all games, including 10-1 SUATS when coming off a win of more than 18 points. 

Rating: 3 Units

Not surprisingly, Detroit piled up a 475-yard advantage over Jacksonville when the Lions achieved a franchise-record 645 yards of offense, scoring seven offensive touchdowns in a 52-6 victory over the Colts. The sticking point is that the Mouth That Roars is 10-2 ATS away in other Domes. The Colts counter at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS against the NFC North. In an anticipated Lions letdown, we need to consider that the Colts are 10-0 ATS against .800 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

With Tua healthy and back behind center and Tyreek Hill with touchdowns in consecutive games, winning its tenth straight game in November doesn’t figure to be a problem for Miami today. Tagovailoa completed 28 of his 36 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11 against the Raiders and was pressured on a season-low 16.2% of his drop backs. The Fish have fried the Pats in this series, going 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in the last eight matchups. They are also 7-1 ATS as single-division home chalk. On the other side, New England is 1-5 ATS in its last six division road games.

Rating: 2 Units

Left tackle Dawand Jones, who’s started eight of the Browns’ ten games this season, will miss the remainder of the year after suffering a fractured ankle in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. This comes just three games after the Browns announced Jones would be the starting left tackle moving forward, replacing Jedrick Wills Jr. It’s a continuing part of the injury overhaul to Cleveland’s once top-rated offensive line. So, while the Steelers are 6-0 ATS when coming off a division home game, and the visiting team is 5-0 ATS in this series, it’s difficult backing a team on the decline that is 9-39-1 SU in this series since 2000. With the Browns 5-27-2 ATS in outright losses as a division home dog this decade, including 0-2 ATS under Kevin Stefanski, we're on the Steelers tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

When the schedule was released in April, this one looked like it could be "The Battle for the Lone Star State". Not anymore. No Dak = no good for the Boys. His injury is much worse than anyone thought a week ago. Cooper Rush 13/23 for 45 yards, that is the fewest passing yards in a game for the Cowboys since 2001. Dallas D, which is decimated by injuries, is allowing 34.5 ppg during their 4 game losing streak. Boys had their 2nd game this year with 5+ turnovers (rest of the NFL has 0 such games) and is 0-4 at home for the 1st time since '10. Texas must bounce back off SNF crusher.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals enter with a super-sharp 11-2 ATS mark as a dog after dressing up as a favorite the previous game and 9-2 ATS when coming off a loss and facing a foe coming off a win. They are also 9-0 ATS against AFC West opposition coming off a SUATS win, and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 35 or more points. On the other side of the field, the Bolts are 1-11 ATS as non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, 4-7 outright, and 2-9 ATS in Game Ten of the season, including 1-8 ATS as a favorite. Finally, QB Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career, including 5-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo comes into this one carrying a huge playoff loss revenge chip on its shoulder from a 27-24 loss on this field last season and that QB Josh Allen brings a 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS carer mark into this contest against undefeated foes. On the flip side, we also know that the Chiefs are 14-3 SU and 17-1 ATS as road dogs since 2016, But, when push comes to shove, it’s next to impossible to look past QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-4 SU and 15-1 ATS career mark as an NFL underdog. And this intriguing note in closing: If you’re a Chiefs fan, don’t get discouraged if they are trailing in the second half of this contest. Kansas City has won a league record nine straight games when trailing at any point in the second half. 

Rating: 2 Units

Denver is 8-1 ATS in a game after knocking heads with KC, and are 10-2 ATS when coming off consecutive losses, each as a dog. They are also 3-0 SUATS mark against the NFC South this season. On the flip side, the Falcons are 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and 4-10 ATS in non-conference travelers. Sean Payton is slowly winning us over, and we’re not about to hop off the merry-go-round just yet.

Rating: 3 Units

Chicago is now 0-2 against the two worst teams in the league, Carolina and New England, and 0-3 SUATS since their Bye week – losing every game by 100-plus yards - while having not scored a point in their last 23 possessions. Additionally the Bears are 0-10 SUATS the last ten games in this series. They are also 2-10 ATS in games when coming off an outright loss as a home favorite.  Finally, Green Bay is 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a Bye week when facing a sub .500 opponent.

TNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

The Eagles have struggled lately at home as chalk in division games, just 9-10 SU and 7-12 ATS against greater than .666 foes, including 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win. They are also 2-11 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss. Conversely, the Commanders bring a 12-2 ATS mark in Game Elevens into the game when playing on the road. They have also been 11-4-2 ATS lately in Philly, including 5-1 ATS with a winning record. Finally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS as a dog of fewer than 4 points with an Over/Under total in the game at 54 or fewer points, including 6-1 SUATS when his team owns a .555 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Four weeks ago, the Rams were 1-4, their top two receivers were banged up, and their season appeared on the brink. Health changes things. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Pacua have infused playmaking back into the offense, and the Rams have won three games in a row after escaping the Seattle Seahawks with a 26-20 overtime victory. Most importantly, Los Angeles is sitting in the No. 10 seed in the NFC playoff picture. So, if you’re looking for Stafford to light up the scoreboard tonight, remember, last week, only one quarterback had more than 300 passing yards – Geno Smith of Seattle. And he went down in flames. However, consider that Miami is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen games in this series while the Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC East encounters. 

Rating: 3 Units

Houston ranks No. 2 overall in the league in overall defense (281 yards per game; 66 YPG superior to the Lions’ stop-unit) and an offense that trails Detroit’s vaunted overall offense by only 22 YPG. The super-hot Motor City men ride a 6-0 SUATS win skein entering this pit stop in Houston. Additionally, only 58 other teams have managed the same feat. Those who faced .666 or greater non-division foes in the following games are just 6-11 ATS, including 2-8 ATS when favored by three or more points. Detroit is just 13-34 SU and 19-27-1 ATS in games after defeating Green Bay.  Finally, Houston QB CJ Stroud is 6-0 ATS as a dog of two or more points versus .500 or greater opponents in his NFL career.

Rating: 2 Units

Coming off a 30-24 victory over Dallas in which they creamed the Cowboys in the stats (469-292), they take the playing field knowing they are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS when coming off a non-division home game, including 9-1 SUATS when Frisco owns a .700 or fewer win percentage. We realize that head coach Kyle Shanahan has taken a powder lately in games in which the Niners own a .500 win percentage (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS), but he is also 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS away in his career with a .500 or fewer win percentage. Tampa enters 10-1 ATS in Game Ten of the season, but only 4-7-1 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week, and 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten games versus the NFC West.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bills are smoking hot with four straight wins in pursuit of a fifth consecutive AFC East division title. The hiccup today, though, is they are looking dead ahead to a rematch with Kansas City next week from a 27-24 home favorite playoff loss last season. That’s not good news for a team that is 2-11 outright away in games before taking on the Chiefs, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last four tries. They are also 1-8 SUATS at AFC sites, including 0-5 SUATS in the previous five. On the opposite side of the field, the Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC East opposition and 8-1 SUATS in Game Ten of the season, including 8-0 ATS when not favored by double-digits. Buffalo's horrible 4.8 Yards Per Rush defense is no match for the Colts’ 4.6 Yards Per Rush offense. Finally, the Bills are 1-9-1 ATS after scoring 30-plus points in their previous three games, including 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Pittsburgh QB Wilson brings a 111.9 QB Rating in his two starts with Pittsburgh, thanks to three TD passes and zero INTs. That adds to the Black-and-Gold’s 5-0 ATS record in its last five games on the NFC road and 4-0 ATS mark when coming off a Bye week. The Commanders in a division sandwich, are 0-6-1 ATS in games before facing Philadelphia, and 1-5-1 ATS after taking on the Giants. Finally, the Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 18-4-1 ATS as a dog against opponents coming off back-to-back wins his NFL career, including 11-0-1 ATS as a dog of four or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

Joe Burrow is 22-12-2 ATS in his NFL career in a game where his team does not sport a winning record, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS away versus foes coming off a SUATS win. With the slow-starting 4-5 Bengals now up to the No. 9 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture, expect revenge to rear its head in this payback from a 41-38 home loss five weeks ago. With the Striped Cats 5-1 ATS as a dog of ten or fewer points in the first of back-to-back road games, and the Black Birds 1-7 ATS in the second of consecutive home games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven division home games, we suggest that you grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Kansas City HC Reid is 25-11 SU and 24-11-1 ATS in Monday Night games. In addition, undefeated home teams on Monday Nights are 49-24-2 ATS overall since 1980. Do you want to step in front of that? We don’t. And we won’t, not with Tampa 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on Monday.

Rating: 2 Units

Flacco has been especially adept as an underdog jumping on opponents that are off a loss, going 18-10 ATS in his NFL career – including 14-5 ATS on the road. The Colts themselves are 5-0 ATS in this series. Then there are the suddenly swirling Vikings, who failed to win in both games as favorites following the Bye week. They also ride a 5-game ITS (In The Stats) losing skein, meaning they are “leaking oil” at a troubling rate. Finally, Minny is a not-so-mighty 1-8 ATS as non-division chalk of more than four points.

Rating: 2 Units

After blowing a 3-0 start and now technically in third place in the NFC West, Macdonald knows the importance of this contest. He needs to know Seattle is 9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Thursday game, as well as 10-3 ATS before their Bye week. It ties nicely into the Rams’ 1-6 ATS record after playing on a Thursday and its 0-3 ATS mark when coming off an outright win as a home dog. Finally, playing against any .500 or fewer NFL road favorite coming off three home games versus a .500 or fewer team that is coming off an ATS loss of 5 or more points is 10-1 ATS.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Detroit is 6-1 for the first time since 1956. And with it, over their last four games, the Lions are now averaging 43 points per game. While being out-yarded in half of its six wins this season. It smells an awful lot like a regression to the mean, which could be in the offing for the crew from the Motor City. With the Packers 6-2 ATS against .850 or greater opponents, we smell a live dog. Finally, Green Bay is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents, including 7-0 ATS as a dog when the Packers own a .400 or greater win percentage.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore currently rank dead last in the league in overall pass defense at 291.4 YPG, yards per pass play at 291.4, and No. 25 in overall team defense at 361.3 yards per game. Toss in that two of their three losses have come at the hands of the Raiders and Browns, 4-12 combined, and you can see the holes. They enter today’s game at just 1-7 ATS as a non-division home favorite of seven or more points. Enter the upstart Broncos, led by fi rst-year QB Bo Nix, who owns more wins than any rookie Denver quarterback in team history. Toss in the Broncos’ ballsy 7-1 ATS ledger as a dog of seven or more points, and we’ve nailed our side in this game. Finally, Denver HC Payton shines as a dog of more than three points, going 24-8-1 ATS in his career, including 7-0 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 44 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams coming off a three-point win are just 32-48-4 ATS since 1980 when facing a losing foe coming off a three-point loss, including 6-11 SUATS as a dog of four or fewer points. Additionally, the Texans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games on Thursday while the Jets are 4-1 SUATS in their previous five games against the AFC South.  Finally, Aaron Rodgers is looking to improve on his 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS career record in home games when his team is coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 SUATS when facing .625 or greater opposition.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Chicago’s Caleb Williams continues to win games impressively in his own right. His 88.7 QB Rating tops Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes as he is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS to start his NFL career. He’ll need to overcome the Bears’ 2-8 ATS record in games following a Bye week. Meanwhile, the Commanders are 6-0-1 ATS in games after playing the Panthers and 6-2 ATS in this series. Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 10-3 ATS coming off a win versus foes coming off consecutive wins, including 6-1-1 ATS when his team sports a greater than .666 win-percentage Finally, NFL teams returning home coming off an outright upset win in London are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles are the only team in the league to rank inside the Top 10 both offensively and defensively in overall offense and defense at this stage of the season. We realize the Bengals have the Eagles’ number (11-0 ATS in the last eleven games in the series), but the Bengals are experiencing some serious leakage, going 0-4 ITS (In The Stats) in the last four games while surrendering season-high yards in two of its last three contests. We’ll back the better team as the dog.

AFC Division Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS when seeking double revenge and 6-1 ATS as a conference dog of four or more points. Houston is 0-4 ATS at home when coming off back-to-back road games and 1-5 ATS mark of late as division home chalk. Additionally, playing on any NFL home favorite who went from last place to first place in its division the previous season are 47-72-3 ATS since 2004, including 36-69-2 ATS, when dressing up as a favorite of -3 or more points and when they are facing a division foe, they falter to 11-33 ATS. Throw in the fact if they are facing a division foe with the ‘Over / Under’ total in the game set at more than 41 points, they fall to 4-20 ATS.

TNF Book Buster

Rating: 3 Units

Minnesota takes to the road following a division home game, knowing they are just 1-5 ATS in games after a division home game. NFL teams are 8-13 SU and 7-14 ATS in their next game after facing the Lions the past two seasons, including 0-4 SUATS this season. The well-rested Rams are 5-1 ATS on Thursdays. With star WR Cooper Kupp expected back tonight, it’s Rams or bust. Finally, the Rams were 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS following their Bye week.

Rating: 2 Units

Harbaugh brings the best current NFL coaches record in the league, 52-24-1 overall, into this contest. However, on the other side of the ball, Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray brings a razor-sharp 20-8 ATS dog log into this fray against non-division foes, including 15-4 ATS in games when the Redbirds sport a sub .400-win percentage. With the Chargers 0-5 ATS after battling the Broncos, it’s enough to put us on this live Monday Night home dog

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Ravens have been ravenous since their 0-2 start, going 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games while chewing up and spitting out anyone in their path. They are also 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the Monday Night Road, while the visiting team in this series is 6-0 ATS. The Bucs have held their own at home, winning outright in their last three games as a home dog, but a 2-6 ATS ledger on Monday nights keeps the Bay at bay. Finally, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield is 8-15-1 ATS at home in his NFL career against foes coming off a win, including 1-12-1 ATS versus opponents that were favored by two or more points in their last game.

SNF Prime Time Game of the Week

SNF Prime Time Game of the Week

The Jets travel to the Steel City Sunday Night knowing they are 0-5 ATS in the first of back-back- away games, as well as 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS in their last twenty Sunday Night games, including 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS when coming off a loss. Mike Tomlin is opting to start Russell Wilson behind center this evening, knowing he is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, including 11-6-1 ATS of late (4-0 ATS at home). Finally, the Jets are 0-13-1 ATS in games after facing the Bills

Rating: 3 Units

Kyle Shanahan is 3-1 SUATS when seeking revenge against .900 or greater opponents and is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in games when his team enters, averaging 144 or more rushing yards per game, including 9-2 SUATS against .500 or greater opponents. The bottom line is that when defending Super Bowl champions are unbeaten and on the non-division road, they are just 15-28 ATS since 1980, including 3-11 ATS from Game Six out. Finally, the 49ers are 10-5-1 ATS at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1-1 ATS when the 49ers own a .500 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington averages a league-best 31.0 points per game and is second in rushing yards per game (178.4). We think you’d agree that backing a listless Panthers crew that is 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the NFC East is tough. With the Commandos 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC South and 8-2 ATS in games after battling Baltimore, our first nod in this matchup of weaklings that were 6-28 outright in 2023 is to the team that has a pulse – and a dynamic quarterback.

Rating: 2 Units

Somehow, the 3-3 Seahawks rank dead last in the league in Rush Attempts Per Game, a vital stat in the NFL. And that’s in a year when the league’s rushing game numbers have surpassed the passing game. That likely explains Seattle’s 3-0 smooth start and its 0-3 tire blowout in the last three games. Teams in this identical scenario – a 3-0 start; 0-3 next three games – are 7-12 ATS dating back to 1980, including 1-7 SUATS in games when not favored by three or more points. Finally, consider that the team coming off a win (Atlanta) is 6-1 ATS in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at a matchup of rookie quarterbacks in Nix and Rattler in this contest. While one would look at the Saints and say “hey, they scored 27 points last week” but a closer look takes the shine off that somewhat. Of the Saints’ points, seven came off a punt return while two other drives started within the Tampa Bay 30-yard line and led to 10 points. In the second half, they were unable to do anything as far as putting points on the board. Now, they have to face a Denver team that has been pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Broncos aren’t any great shakes offensively but they had won three straight before falling to the Chargers. Look for Denver to go on the road and rely on their defense to come up with the victory in this contest. Consider that New Orleans is 0-9-2 vs non-divisional opponents on Thursday Nights.

Rating: 2 Units

There will be money on the New York side, thinking the team will be revitalized after a major change in the coaching staff, but Robert Salah was not the problem, and they won't find solutions this week. Salah led the defense, and the Jets have the 7th best scoring defense in the league. The problem has been New York's offense which cannot get going. They are only 27th in scoring, and Rodgers is coming off a game where he threw three interceptions in a loss. The Jets have seemingly abandoned the run game, as neither Hall nor Allen has rushed for over 200 yards yet on the season. New York's strength is their defense, but they lost their leader in Salah, and they are going against a Buffalo offense that is 3rd in points per game. The Bills are coming off two consecutive losses, but they were playing two of the top teams in the AFC in Baltimore and Houston, the Bills will bounce back strong with a much needed primetime win. The Jets are a mess, and firing your coach, and demoting your offensive coordinator will not result in immediate success.

Rating: 3 Units

QB Daniel Jones has one turnover in his past four games. For now, it appears the wrong team is favored. With the Bengals 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the NFC East and the G-Men on a 5-0-1 ATS heater as non-conference hosts, there is only one way to look here in this Sunday night contest.  Finally, the Giants are 21-12-1 ATS as a dog under head coach Brian Daboll, including 8-0-1 ATS at home versus .600 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Carolina has out-yarded two of its last three opponents – a sign that it has not tossed in the towel. In addition, Dalton is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS at home in his career when his team is coming off back-to-back SUATS losses, including 10-0 ATS in the last ten contests! Throw in the Dirty Birds’ 1-5 ATS mark in its last six road games as division chalk and Carolina’s 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS mark in its last six games as a division home dog and you have a live dog!

NFL Upset of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Sitting on the home side of the field is a two-loss team that was not only the preseason favorite to win its division but is also 13-3-1 ATS as a home dog in non-division games with an inferior record since 2001. Head coach Mike McCarthy is 103-43-2 SU and 81-62-5 ATS at home in his NFL career, including 31-11-2 ATS against NFC North opponents. The newly minted Lions are just 6-9 outright in their last fifteen games against the NFC East and 6-14-1 ATS as road favorites of seven or fewer points against opponents coming off consecutive wins. Additionally, Detroit is 10-19-1 ATS as a favorite in games before taking on division rival Minnesota. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a SU underdog win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucs are hoping to be back here in February. However, Tampa has to be sick to their stomach after letting that one get away in Atlanta on Thursday. Seemingly had the game winning pick 1:44 to go. However, a holding penalty moved them out of FG range, and they couldn't stop Atlanta from forcing OT. They never touched the ball after that. Let's not forget they were held to 6 points in the 2nd half. Mike Evans w/ his 100th career TD (99 rec, 1 fumble recovery). Saints on a 9-3 run vs the Bucs

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Black Birds have struggled against the NFC East, just 4-8-1 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS against those coming off a win. In addition, Baltimore brings a weak 12-20 ATS ledger into this contest as a home favorite when coming off three wins. Coming off a nail-biting win over division rival Cincinnati, with a Monday Night game on deck, should find them less focused today. Washington is the first team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to average 30 points through five games while starting a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels). They are also 10-3 ATS as non-division road dogs. Finally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS as a dog when his team is coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of six or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The 49ers ride an 8-1 SUATS win skein in games with a losing record (6-0 SUATS the last six) when they sport a losing record. Despite Seattle’s puzzling loss against the Giants last week, they are the only team in the NFC West with a winning record heading to this week’s action. In game sixes of the season the Seahawks own the better numbers in these games at 5-2-1 outright and 7-1 ATS the last eight seasons. We like Seattle’s 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS home dog log of seven or fewer points (5-1 SUATS the last six), and its 17-10 outright and 17-9-1 ATS upper hand in this series. Sure, the Niners may be the best 2-3 team in the NFL this season, but they are 2-3 for a reason.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs are undefeated, but they have played in one score games all season. The Chiefs are not blowing out their opponents, so taking the points in this matchup is the right play. The public perception is that the Chiefs have a powerful offense because they have Patrick Mahomes, but the stats do not back this. The Saints actually have the top scoring offense in the league, while the Chiefs are back in 14th in scoring. Mahomes is playing without his top skill players, and overcompensating by trying to create plays that aren't there. He has five interceptions and just six touchdown passes so far this year. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher, but the best way to neutralize an edge rusher is to hit screen passes, which Alvin Kamara may be the best in the league at executing. Kamara will put up numbers both on the ground and in the passing game, which will open up the play-action for Carr and his wideouts. The Saints scored 40-plus in each of their first two games, they will not be locked up by this Kansas City defense, and Mahomes does not have enough weapons to run away with this one.

Rating: 3 Units

The fact that both of Dallas’ wins have won on the road this season is encouraging. It also has a 6-0 ATS record after gatherings with the Giants. This could get ugly under the Monday Night lights, coupled with Pittsburgh’s popgun offense and its 1-5 ATS record at home with a .600 or greater win percentage in Sunday Night games against non-division opponents. Finally, Dallas is 9-3 SU and 10-4 ATS versus the AFC North, including 7-0 SUATS when coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seahawks’ 3-1 start to the season is better than it looks, as they have out yarded all four foes by over +100 net stat yards per game. They fell most recently to the Lions on Monday night despite winning the total yards, 516-389. Seattle enters 9-0 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday contest and is 23-8 SU and 22-9 ATS long-term against NFC East opponents. Big Blue peters out in their series with a 1-6 SUATS record while also going just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC East. 

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati is 11-0 SUATS record in games when both teams are coming off SUATS wins. Joe Burrows is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career against teams coming off a SUATS win, not to mention his 14-6-2 ATS record as a dog of a field goal or less, including 8-1-1 ATS when Cincy sports a .555 or fewer win percentage. Finally, the Bengals are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games when taking the field with double revenge.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

In the past four seasons, Houston has been 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against the AFC East. With the Bills chomping at the bit to get back on the winning track and is 17-4-1 ATS away off an away loss, including 11-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. Finally, Buffalo is 11-2 SUATS away behind QB Josh Allen after allowing 24 or more points in its previous game, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS versus non-division foes

NFL International Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The last time the Vikes started 4-0, that squad managed to finish only 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Furthermore, QB Sam Darnold has struggled in today’s role, going 4-11 SUATS versus AFC East and 4-10 SUATS away against foes coming off a loss. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has a propensity of bouncing back off the carpet when his team lost its last game outright as a favorite, going 26-14 SUATS throughout his NFL career, including 10-2 ATS as a dog. Note the Vikes have won their previous three games as an underdog, understanding that playing against any NFL non-division favorite that is coming off three outright wins in a row as an underdog if the Over/Under total in the game is 37 or more points is 17-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dirty Birds are one of 13 NFL teams sitting at 2-2 after the opening month of the season, one game back of the division-leading Bucs, led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has thrown more TD passes in the league than any signal caller since last season. Tampa arrives at 6-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games while cashing in six of its last eight division roadies. Atlanta settles in at 1-5 ATS on Thursdays and 0-5 ATS before a division road game.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Now that they’ve avoided what the Bengals could not, an 0-3 start, they will be balls-to-the-wall focused on making up for lost time, and what better foe to start with than the scintillating 3-0 Bills? With that, Buffalo brings an 0-3-1 ATS mark in the first of consecutive road games and a 1-4 ATS record in games when coming off a Monday nighter into this game. On the flip side, the Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS as of late in this series, as well as 10-3-1 ATS in their last fourteen slugfests against the AFC North. The bottom line is that we don’t see the Ravens giving last week’s win away. Finally, 3-0 teams in Game Four that were in the playoffs last season, are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS as a road dog, including 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS against foes coming off a win

Rating: 2 Units

Shanahan is 5-0 SUATS the last five games when playing with a losing record. The Pats enter just 1-7 ATS after playing on the division road and 2-8 ATS before a division game. And don’t forget, Frisco was installed as a 12-point favorite in this game by the Westgate Super Book before the season started, making this a value play for the Niners. 

Rating: 2 Units

You always took the road team in this series. However, once free agency hit, that was the end of it. Saints came back to earth as they were dominated (stat wise) vs Philly. Remember, they scored 91 pts in their 1st two games & failed to score a TD vs PHI. Alvin Kamara w/ 127 scrimmage yards. Consider that Atlanta is 0-10 before Thurs.