25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 17 or more points. FSU held seven opponents to season low offensive outputs and I believe that the same result will take place to the Huskies. It is truly an honor for the sled dogs to be the first MAC team to earn a BCS bid, but now the school and entire conference will learn how strong and deep these elite programs have been for decades. FSU is accustomed to BCS Bowls and 24 of their players herald from South Florida. So, this is

25* graded play on the Purdue Boilermakers as they take on Oklahoma State in the Heart of Dallas Bowl set to start at 12:00 Noon New Years Day. The simulator shows a high probability Purdue will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Out of the 124 FBS football programs, the Cowboys rank 120th allowing 304.3 passing yards per game and 123rd with opponents attempting an average of 44 passes per game. Purdue has the aerial attack to exploit the Cowboys secondary and will be a major reason why this may end of being a very competitive single digit game in the fourth quarter. Purdue may be just 6-6, but they rank 37th attempting 37 passes per game, 66th averaging 229 passing yards per game, and 59th completing 60% of all pass attempts. It will be very important that the Purdue defense makes the Cowboys run as many plays as possible to score points. Cowboys rank seventh averaging 41.1 PPG, fifth gaining an average of 537 yards per game, and second averaging 6.8 yards per play. Purdue wideouts O.J. Ross and Antavian Edison have excellent hands and run

25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on Northwestern in the Gator Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi State will win this game. The public has been all over Northwestern and this adds even more personal confidence with this releases. I monitor 12 books and when the number of bets exceeds 70% of all bets on one team, it throws up a red flag for the public betting. I always like a play that is reinforced by one that it is on the books side meaning there are far more bets being made on Northwestern than State. Sim shows a very high probability that State will score 28 or more points. In past games, State is a solid 5-2 ATS this seasons, 13-5 ATS the past three seasons and 52-23 ATS since 1992. HC Fitzgerald is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of NW. HC Mullen is a resounding 8-1 ATS after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Bulldogs run a balanced attack; they passed four more times than ran the ball for the season. However, they have a huge advantage using the passing game to set up the run. Northwestern ranks 101st in the nation and were dead last in the Big Ten allowing 268 passing yards per game. Consider that the BIG Ten had some of the weakest passing attacks of any conference and you immediately see the big time reasons State will pass the ball up to 60% of all plays run in this game. Bulldogs rank 32nd in the nation allowing 23.6 PPG and this against SEC teams. Take Mississippi State.

25* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the LSU Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Bowl set to be played in the Georgia Dome beginning at 7:30 PM ET. I also like a 10* play OVER the posted total of 58 points. This matchup is a very exciting one as it pits one of the nation

25* graded play on the USC Trojans as they take on Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Southern Cal will win this game by 10 or more points. Trojans were the preseason AP No.1 ranked team and after a tumultuous season and the loss of their preseason Heisman candidate QB Matt Barkley, they do have one more opportunity to play a great positive game to springboard the team into the 2013 campaign. This marks the first bowl game in twp seasons for the Trojans after being banned by the NCAA for violations. Head Coach Lane Kiffin, will have his team fired up for this game even though it is a far cry from a BCS Bowl and the fact they are playing a team with a losing record of 6-7 from the ACC. Winning Bowl Games significantly helps recruiting efforts and also is quite motivating for the Seniors to go out winning their last game for the school program. The Georgia Tech defense has no single defender that can match up in man coverage to defend Trojan wideouts Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. I still maintain they are one of the best 1-2 punches in college football. Redshirt Freshman, Max Wittek, played extremely well in his first start against No.1 Notre Dame and that confidence will spillover to this bowl game. He was 14 of 23 for 186 passing yards against ND. Now he gets to pass against a Tech passing defense ranked 102nd in the nation allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Triple Option that Tech runs on offense is a high risk scheme that is difficult for many opponents to prepare for with just 6 games of prep time. With the exception of FSU, Tech has not faced a defense with the team speed that exemplifies the Trojans. USC has some very smart and athletic players and the key to the defending the Triple Option is sealing the edges and forcing the play back to the middle of the field. I strongly believe that the Trojans defense will handle this scheme well and will force Tech into third and long situations far too many times. I like USC to win this game by double digits. USC HC Kiffen is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

15* graded play on TCU as they take on Michigan State in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl set to start at 10:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-2 record for 93% winners since 1992. Play on neutral field favorites vs. the money line off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival with the game being played on a Saturday. Moreover, MSU is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Rice is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. Take the Horned Frogs.

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on the Oregon State Beavers in the Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. I like using a combination bet for this opportunity placing a 20* wager using the line and a 5* amount using the money line. Texas enters this fray on a two-game skid losing to Iowa State and TCU both at home and failing to cover in both. They put together two four-game winning streaks this season starting out 4-0 before losing two straight and then winning the next four games. Sim shows a high probability that Texas defense will hold Oregon State to fewer than 150 rushing yards. In past games where Texas has held an opponent to between 100 and 150 rushing yards they are 2-0 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-16 ATS since 1992. The sim also shows that Texas will get the offense into high gear and score more than 28 points. In past games where they scored 28 or more points Oregon State is 6-10 ATS the past three seasons and 31-66 ATS since 1992. Texas QB McCoy and injured LB Hicks were sent home for violating curfew rules. Note though that HC Mack Brown had already made his decision to start David Ash at QB since he is among the TOP-10 in passing efficiency. The Texas defense is playing very well after starting out the season allowing 35 PPG. Over the past five games they have allowed 21 PPg and just 328 offensive yards. OSU has a deep threat weapon in WR Wheaton, who ranks 11th nationally averaging 101 receiving yards per game. I strongly believe that the Texas defense will be able to bracket him with the use of a safety and that the Texas defensive front will be able to do a great job stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. Look for interceptions by the Longhorns on passes targeted to Wheaton on short underneath routes. The Longhorns can play a very complex zone-man scheme that can make reads extremely difficult. Take the Longhorns.

15* graded play on Navy as they take on Arizona State in the Kraft Fight for Hunger Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Navy made a chance at leadership and moved Trey Miller to the QB position and they have won seven of the last eight games. He is an excellent disciplined decision maker in the triple option offensive attack and I truly believe this is going to cause defensive problems for ASU. RB Gee Greene is an excellent elusive running back, who is difficult to bring down when running in space. Defending the triple option requires defensive discipline from all three levels, especially the safeties. ASU has been prone to reacting to fakes and getting out of a position all season and now could be exploited even more with the triple option attack. Navy OL does an incredible job of getting off the first block and getting to the second level and this requires the safeties to take correct angles and maintain leverage on the perimeter. I believe Navy will have some big plays out of the triple option and will take advantage of ASU defensive misreads. ASU is just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games facing good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards per carry since 1992; 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. ASU is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992. Take Navy.

15* graded play on the Air Force Academy as they take on the Rice Owls set to start at 11:45 AM in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will win this game by three or more points. AF is a solid 16-6 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. Rice truly turned around the ugliest possible start to any season winning five of their last six games. However, Rice is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Sim shows a high probability that AF will gain more than 300 rushing yards and will score more than 28 points. In past games, Rice is just 8-15 ATS the past three seasons and 43-88 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points and are just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 6-17 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 300 or more rushing yards. AF ranks third in the nation gaining 215 rushing yards per game and Rice is not going to be able to contain this attack for 60 minutes. They rank 89th allowing 193 rushing yards per game. Take Air Force.

25* graded play on the Ohio Bobcats as they take on the UL-Monroe Warhawks set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio University will lose this game by fewer than six points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given the projections and as you are steadily seeing from previous reports, I like using a combination bet when I have a DOG that I believe can win the game. In this case, i am playing this game with a 20* amount on the line and a 5* using the money line. This does not mean that MUST do the same thing, of course. If you like playing the line only that is perfectly fine. I only have found through 18-years, that when I have a dog that can win, I can make a little more cabbage by splitting the bet to make a combination OVER the course of many plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-61 money line record for just 46% winners, but has made a whopping 51 units per one unit wagered since 2006. The system has averaged a +220 dog and reflects how these combination bets can augment total return over the course of a season. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line after allowing 8 or more passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Situationally, Monroe comes into this bowl game off a 23-17 win and covered as 3

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Duke in the Belk Bowl set to start at 6:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bearcats will win this game by 13 or more points. The key and dominant theme to this game is this the 28 point total for Cincinnati. The sim shows an extremely high probability that Cincinnati will score 28 or more points. In past games, where the Bearcats have scored 28 or more points, they are 5-1 ATS this season, 16-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 66-23 ATYS since 1992. Duke is just 1-6 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS the past three seasons, and 41-93 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Duke Head Coach Cutcliffe is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards per play. The most difficult part of this bowl matchup to quantify is adjusting their respective performances based on the vastly differing strengths of schedule each team has played. Cincinnati played a much easier schedule, however, after adjusting for the weaker schedule and conference, they have a slightly better offense and a significantly stronger defensive unit. The key is the Bears defense that ranks 13th in the nation allowing 18.2 PPG that will dominate a Duke offensive unit that ranks 55th averaging 29.3 PPG and 89th averaging 5.1 YPP. The Bearcats had the fortunate situation of having a very good bench quarterback in Brendon Kay being able to step in for season starter Legaux. Kay has proven to be a better decision maker and throws an excellent deep ball. Duke plays a somewhat rare 4-2-5 defensive scheme, which opens up opportunities in underneath routes and yards after the catch. Kay can throw the deep ball, even though there will be three safeties on the field. Duke has struggled during games in zone coverage assignments and vertical post patterns have hurt them this season. This is the Cincinnati strength off of play action and their quick strike ability could take Duke out of this game before halftime. Take the Bearcats.

25* graded play on the Western Kentucky as they take on Central Michigan in the Little Caesars Bowl set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win this game by seven or more points. Let

25* graded play on the the SMU Mustangs as they take on Fresno State in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and I also believe they can post a major upset win. Given the projections I am going to play this as a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-24 record using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 50 units per one unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged an incredible 306 dog play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line that has been a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards per play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Here is a second money line system that has hit just 32% winners for a 32-67 mark, BUT has made 92 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +497 money line dog play. Play on dogs of +315 or higher using the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Fresno State has had an excellent season and in large part due to an opportunistic defensive group averaging 2.9 takeaways per game good for second best in the nation. However, SMU, does a solid job at not turning the ball over ranking 58th averaging 1.6 giveaways per game. Moreover, they rank sixth in time-of-possession, which reflects their ability to execute time consuming scoring drives. Although they are a pass dominant team, they can run the ball effectively off of the passing game. SMU QB Gilbert will have to locate FSU safety Thomas on every approach to the LOS. He has eight picks on the season and three were returned for touchdowns. These interceptions have come when he is lined up in the slot, but in this matchup he will have his hands full with Darius Johnson, who will achieve separation from him allowing Gilbert to make high percentage underneath completions. Gilbert has not thrown an interception in his last five games, but can be erratic at points in the game. Gilbert needs to simply execute what FSU defense gives him to complete and not force throws to make plays. One huge advantage for SMU is on the defensive side with Margus Hunt, who will lined up against true freshman Alex Fifita. Hunt will blow him off the ball with his bull rush and has the upper body strength to shed him to make tackles on the RB. He will line up straight in front of Fifita making it very difficult for him to get leverage and protect the edge. It also makes it more challenging for the guards and TE to provide help in pass blocking. Hunt could dominate this game and force FSU to double team him on nearly every play. This opens up the SMU defense to then bring pressure from either side having a big edge in the numbers. I like SMU a lot and as mentioned I am playing a 20* on the line and a 5* on the money line expecting the upset potential.

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Washington set to start at 3:30 PM ET in the Las Vegas Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by seven or more points. We have all grown accustomed to the Boise State football program reflecting an elite offensive unit that simply outscores opponents to win games. This year

25* graded play on Louisiana Lafayette (LL) as they host East Carolina in the New Orleans Bowl set to start at Noon ET December 22, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that LL will win this game by seven or more points. The sim also shows a very high probability that 28 or more points will be scored in this game. In past games, LL is a solid 6-2 ATS this season, 16-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 44-20 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 27 or 68% of the winning plays covered the spread by seven or more points and this underscores my belief that Ll can win this game by double digits. The matchup of this game is the spread passing attack of the Pirates going up against a suspect Cajuns back seven. However, I see this in a far different angle. The Cajuns went to a four man defensive front late this season and has paid off handsomely. The Pirates already struggle to run the ball and will NOT be able to sustain the run. This forces red shirt sophomore Shane Carden to win the game with his arm. The Cajuns play mostly zone, but with the four man front will be able to get pressure on Carden and fill passing lanes. This will allow the back seven to target receivers in their zone coverage scheme far more accurately. The bigger advantage for the Cajuns is with their dynamic QB Terrance Broadway, who certainly exemplifies the strong play of Michigan

25* graded play on the BYU COugars as they take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl set to start 8:00 PM ET. This game will be on ESPN and ESPN3D for your viewing enjoyment. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by six or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS record for 76% winners since 2002. Play against all dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight wins facing conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 50% of all the games played based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by seven or more points and underscores my strong belief that this will be a 10+ point BYU win. For money line players, here is a system that has gone 92-36 for 72% winners since 2006. Play on a road team using the money line that is a quick starting offensive team scoring 16+ PPG in the first half and after a win by 35 or more points. I am expecting BYU to get off to a fast start and then their significant size and physicality advantages on both sides of the ball will steadily wear down the Aztecs. The Aztec defense plays well, but are undersized against the BYU OL. They must take leveraged angles and maintain gap discipline, both of which they are vastly inconsistent at executing. Moreover, the Aztec third level are for the most part poor tacklers and will be vulnerable to the many different screen passes that BYU runs. BYU has a luxury in two solid QB in their stable only discovered by the injury of Senior starter Riley Nelson that gave fellow Senior James Lark at shot at starting for the first time in his career. Lark delivered in that first start throwing for 6 TD. Lark is excellent at getting the ball out quickly and has the WR corp that get enough separation for Lark to easily complete underneath passes. he also leads them well for after the catch yardage. Riley has a much more accurate arm in middle and long distance throws, but also can execute underneath routes nearly as equal. Since they are both Seniors playing in their last game, it only stands to reason that the coaching staff will elect to use both of them in this bowl game and in my opinion, it makes the Cougars that much more dangerous and even more difficult for the Aztecs to prepare for. BYU ranks fourth best in the FBS allowing just 14.8 PPG and second in both opponent yards per rush at 2.7 and opponents rushes per game at 30 attempts. Aztecs are a run dominated offensive team and their inability to establish the run is going to make it extremely difficult for them to compete for four quarters with the Cougars. Take BYU.

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 4:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. On paper, the statistics show why Utah State should be favored in this bowl. However, the individual matchups show that this is just too many points to be laying to a solid Toledo team. Toledo RB David Fluellen is a solid runner and has lateral agility to make Utah State

30* graded play on the Georgia Bulldogs as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game set to start at 4:00 PM ET in Atlanta, Georgia. I also like this game to soar over the posted total for a 10* graded amount. Do not play amy parlay with this combination given the risk of the 25* amount. The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. I like adding a 4* amount using the money line and not utilizing a combination bet that would still total 25* units of risk. Despite, the

25* graded play on the Baylor Bears as they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Baylor will lose this game by five or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. Given the upset potential, I like playing a combination bet for this game playing a 20* unit plus the points and a 5* unit using the money line. One of the biggest factors for this game is I do not see the Cowboys bouncing back from the annual Bedlam loss last week to Oklahoma. The Cowboys never trailed in the game until the last play of OT when the Sooners ended the game with a FG winning the wild game 51-48. Moreover, this will be the eighth straight game played in as many weeks and the physical and mental fatigue is great by itself, but when slammed with an OT loss in the big rivalry game, it becomes incredibly hard to bounce back. Cowboys are a strong offensive team, but Baylor is a solid 9-2 ATS when facing good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Baylor head coach Briles is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. Take Baylor.

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Kent State in a huge MAC showdown set to start at 7:00 PM ET. This is the MaratThe simulator shows a high probability that Northern Illinois will win this game by 10 or more points. NI has significant advantages in the matchups on both sides of the ball. Kent State has had the best season in school history and is guaranteed to play in their first postseason bowl game since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl. There is a lot more at stake, though as the winner of this game could get an automatic bid to a BCS Bowl game, if the rank 16th or higher in the final BCS standings. NI QB Jordan Lynch ought to be in the Heisman race as he ranks third in the FBS averaging 363 yards of total offense. he has had a game throwing for over 400 passing and another game where he rushed for over 200 yards. He set a FBS record for a QB by gaining 100 or more rushing yards in 10 straight games. Although Kent State has done a very good job defending the run, facing the dual threat of Lynch, who has passed for 23 TD with just 4 interceptions and adds 16 more TD

25* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Louisville in a Big East showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN. Both teams are coming off tough losses. The fact that Louisville really had it

25* graded play on the Air Force Academy as they take on Fresno State in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. This is a game on extreme contrasting teams as AF uses the power running attack and FSU chooses to air out with the pass. Although AF is not as prolific on the scoreboard as Fresno, they can control the clock and the pace of play. Moreover, tjhey rank fifth in the nation converting 53.4% of their third down situations and this allow them to move the chains and keep Fresno off the field. Another area I like is when AF will use play action and pass the ball. They rank 123rd nationally passing just 16% of all plays run, but rank seventh in the nation averaging 9.2 yards per pass. This clearly shows that when they do pass, they catch the defense by surprise and Fresno has a tendency to bite on fakes and lack gap discipline when they were facing balanced offensive attacks. AF is coming off a 21-7 win over Hawaii and allowed just 37 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Moreover, they ran the ball 68 times for 338 yards and did not throw one pass in the win. AF is a solid 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992; 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-31 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2006. Play on a road team after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. Air Force will cover this huge number easily.

25* graded play on the the Oregon State Beavers as they take on the Oregon Ducks in the Battle of the Civil War with the winner getting the Platypus Trophy. A platypus as a bill like Duck (Oregon) and a tail like a Beaver (Oregon State). This trophy was stolen or lost for more than 40 years, before it was found buried deep in the back of a closet. A bit puzzling that no one knows whose closest it was or whether they were Beaver or Duck fans/graduates. The simulator shows a high probability that Oregon State will lose this game by fewer than eight points and I would not be surprised if they pull off the upset win. Emotionally, Oregon could not be any lower losing their chance at a National BCS Title bid with an overtime loss to conference foe Stanford. Stanford defeated the Ducks with sound execution on both sides of the ball, but their defense was quite disruptive with different looks on nearly every down. Oregon State has a similar defense to Stanford and I strongly believe they will do a great job against the No. 2 ranked scoring offense in the nation. Oregon State defense ranks second in the PAC-12 and 13th nationally allowing 108.7 rushing yards per game. The intangible is clearly that Oregon had much higher aspirations than defeating Oregon State and getting the Platypus Trophy. Having their 23-game streak of scoring 30 or more points broken against a team they were favored by three TD

25* graded play on Washington State as they host Washington in Pac-12 Rivalry Weekend action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. I like adding a 3* amount using the money line as there is a reasonable expectation that the Cougars could get a shocking upset win. Given that I am confident of the cover, I don

25* graded play on the Arkansas as they host LSU in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET, Friday, November 22. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. LSU had high expectations coming into this season and now they are playing out the slate. They have a very faint shot at reaching the SEC Conference Finals, but need Alabama to lose to Auburn and that is not very likely given that Alabama is favored by 32 points. So, the coaches can preach all they want about the importance of this game, but they and the players know that a shot a BCS bid is not going to happen. Arkansas has had a horrid season with just four wins and have covered just two of the 11 games played. The public is all over LSU based on the flash stats, but the specific matchups actually lend support to an Arkansas upset. LSU barely escaped last week against Mississippi and needed overtime to win 41-35 in a gem they were installed as a 19 point favorite. LSU does not have an elite offense and rely heavily on the power running game. Although, Arkansas ranks 84th allowing 32.1 PPG, they are an excellent run defense unit ranking 24th allowing 3.6 rushing yards per play. They also rank 24th allowing 130.5 rushing yards per game. Arkansas

25* graded play on Utah State as they take on Louisiana Tech. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah State will cover this game and probably win it SU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-2 MONEY LINE record for 93% winners since 1992. It is also a perfect 3-0 using the ML this season. Play on a road team using the money line that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 YPP and after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in three consecutive games. NO. 20 L-Tech will have it

25* graded play on the Michigan State Spartans as they host the Northwestern Wildcats set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 10 or more points. The MSU defense will be the dominant force in this game and will contain the Northwestern ground attack. The sim shows that NW will average between 4.0 to 4.5 yards per play and in past games MSU is a solid 25-11 ATS when they have held an opponent to this average range of yards gained per play. Moreover, NW is just 9-21 ATS when they have gained 250 to 300 total offensive yards in a game. MSU struggles on offense, but have one of the best team defenses in the Big Ten conference. Nationally, they rank 11th allowing 16.3 PPG, 6th allowing just 288 yards per game, 13th allowing 4.4 yards per play, 15th allowing opponents to convert just 31% of their third down opportunities. By comparison, the NW defense ranks 43rd allowing 26 PPG, 68th allowing 314 YPG, 45th allowing 5.3 yards per play, and 61st allowing opponents to convert 41% of their third situations. This is a matchup where MSU will be able to effectively move the ball on offense and score far more points than their season average. They key you will see, will be that MSU will not allow NW the same luxury. The MSU will make plays on third down and get off the field and over the course of the game, the MSU OL will steadily wear down the NW defensive front. Take the Spartans.

25* graded play on Hawaii as they take on Air Force in CFB action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Air Force is not a balanced offensive attack and rely nearly exclusively on the triple option scheme. They have not been able to take advantage of weak passing defenses and have gone just 13-29 ATS when facing poor passing defenses allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Hawaii is not a strong running team, but here again AF is just 14-28 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. Moreover, AF is just 3-16 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992; 7-24 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992. Hawaii has lost seven straight games and lost everyone to the spread. This does not ever mean that a team is DUE to cover ATS, but it does reflect that the Hawaii bandwagon is near empty and the betting public is all over whoever their opponent is. Nearly 82% of all bets being made are on AF reflecting this irrational exuberance. The line for this game has actually gone counter to the public sentiment showing clearly that the

25* graded play on the UVA as they host UNC in a big ACC showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by three or fewer points. I also like adding a 5* amount using the money line as an optional wager. Suddenly, the UNC defense riddled with probations has allowed a sea of yardage and points over their last three games. Just last game, they allowed 68 points to Georgia Tech in a 68-50 loss. UVA has suddenly given rebirth to Bowl hopes winning their last two games at NC State and last week in dramatic fashion with a 41-40 over the

25* graded play on Texas State as they host Louisiana Tech set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TS will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. LT is having an outstanding season posting an 8-1 record and ranked NO. 20 in the nation. They are coming off an impressive and dominating game defeating UTSA 51-27, but failed to cover installed as 30 point favorites. LT is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. This is just too many points to give a Texas State team that does possess the talent on offense to make this a game. I am not projecting the win, but I do believe it will be far closer than the current line indicates. LT does not have a solid defense and have been able to mask that weakness by scoring a ton of points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. 50% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a terrible defense allowing 6.1 or more yards per play. Texas State has nine returning starters on their defensive unit and they have only gotten better with each passing week of the regular season. LT defense ranks 99th in the nation allowing 34.1 PPG, 115th allowing an average of 498 opponent offensive yards, 92nd, allowing 6.0 yards-per-play, and 79th allowing opponent to convert 38% of opponents third down situations. Take Texas State.

25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Wyoming set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will win this game. NM QB B.R. Holbrook is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, but new Mexico is a extremely dominant running team. NM is also off three straight conference losses, but are 7-0 ATS in home games off three straight losses against conference rivals since 1992. Speaking of running the ball, the sim shows a very high probability that they will gain 300 or more rushing yards. In past games, NM is a 6-2 ATS this season and 17-5 ATS since 1992. The sim shows a strong probability that NM will score 28 or more points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they are 4-1 ATS this season and 54-21 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-14 for 65% winners averaging +172 dog and has made 31 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line with an average offensive team gaining between 330 and 390 YPG and is now facing a team with a terrible defense >=440 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. Here is a second system that has gone 23-9 for 72% winners and has made 24 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +144 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line and is an average offensive team gaining between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and is now facing against a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 YPP and after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. NM is a solid 14-4 against the money line (+11.1 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Stanford in a huge Pac-12 showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by four or fewer points and I strongly believe they will win the game. With that said consider a combination bet placing a 17* amount using the line and an 8* amount on the money line to make the most of this betting opportunity. There is nothing wrong with just playing a full 25* on the line and I mention the combination bet as an option for those who share in my confidence that a major upset will take place in this game. The Oregon State defense is goig to create major problems for the Stanford offense. The matchups favor and confirm the sim projection calling for the Cardinal to gain between 100 and 150 net rushing yards. in past games, where the OSR defense has allowed this range of rushing yards, they are a solid 3-0 ATS this season, 6-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 35-11 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-13 ATS for 77% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and now facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR. This system has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and is 7-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 13-5 ATS since 2006. There has been a bit of a quarterback issue for OSU as starter Sean Mannion has come back from a knee injury and was largely inconsistent in his start against Washington. Backup QB Cody Vaz does not have the pro stature and big-time arm than Mannion has, but he matches up a whole lot better against Stanford

25* graded play on UCONN as they host Pittsburgh in Big East action set to start at 8:00 PM ET Friday, November 9, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will win this lose this game by three or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 73-34 ATS for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home dogs that are poor rushing teams averaging 125 or less rushing yards per game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a very strong money line system that has gone 40-15 for 73% winners averaging a +127 dog play and has made 36 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on a home team using the money line that is a struggling rushing team averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Pitt is a decent offensive unit ranking in the middle of the national rankings in the majority of offensive categories. They rank 66th averaging 5.9 YPP and UCONN is a solid 9-2 against the money line (+10.3 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play since 1992.I really like the UCONN defense in this matchup. They rank 19th in the nation allowing 18.6 PPG, eighth allowing 290 YPG, and seventh allowing an average of 4.2 Yards-per-play on the season. I strongly believe they will dominate the LOS and the Pitt offense will have it

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on V-Tech in an ACC showdown set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 17 or more points. FSU is one of the best teams in the nation and the rankings clearly show the mismatch this game provides. FSU ranks 11th in the nation averaging 39.9 PPG and rank 8th allowing 15.0 PPG on the season. By comparison, V-Tech ranks 77th averaging just 25.2 PPG and their defense just 53rd allowing 27 PPG. Moreover, FSU ranks best in the nation averaging 7.3 YPP and seventh averaging 0.552 points-per-play. V-Tech defense ranks 50th allowing 5.3 YPP and 53rd allowing 0.368 points-per-play. Tech ranks 55th averaging 5.5 YPP and 76th averaging 0.351 points-per play. The FSU defense ranks second allowing just 3.2 YPP and 6th allowing 0.212 points-per-play. The sim shows a very high probability that FSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, Tech is 0-4 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-44 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points in a game. Moreover, Tech is a miserable 0-5 ATS the past three seasons and 1-1 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 41 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-8 ATS for 81% winners since 2006. This system has produced a 5-1 ATS mark this season. Play on a road team off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team sporting a win percentage of >=80% and now playing a team with a losing record. 53% of the plays made since 2006 have covered the spread by seven or more points. I strongly believe this will be a 20 point game and perhaps more. Take the Seminoles.

25* graded play on Ball State as they take on Toledo in a MAC Conference showdown. The simulator shows a high probability that Ball State will lose this game by six or fewer points. Toledo gained the 23rd ranking in the AP Top-25 poll this week and marks the first time they have achieved this lofty status in more than 10 seasons. With the ranking also comes the bullseye for opponents to want to defeat them just a bit more. This is has been a very strong conference that has certainly been flying under the national media radar. They have four teams ranked in the Top-32 and this matches the Big Ten conference at this point. Toledo has won eight straight games, but has played a weaker schedule than Ball State to date. In big games, it is an added benefit to be on the team that has had that tougher schedule and the

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in the Bayou set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that LSU will lose this game by eight or fewer points and I believe the evidence suggests that LSU can win this game. One factor is that LSU has had a week off to get healed and fully rested. Alabama is coming off another huge win, but QB McCarron was

25* graded play on Indiana as they take on Iowa in Big Ten action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by four or more points. Simply, Iowa is one of the worst offensive teams and Indiana is a strong offensive unit. Iowa ranks 103rd in the nation averaging just 19.4 PPG, 112th averaging 311.4 YPP, and 68th scoring on 80% of their red zone opportunities. By contrast, Indiana ranks 23rd in the nation averaging 35.7 PPG, 35th averaging 441 YPP, and fifth scoring on 94% of their red zone opportunities. The sim shows a very high probability that Indiana will score more than 28 points in this game. In past games where Iowa gave up 28 or more points they are 0-3 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 16-51 ATS since 1992. The sim also shows that Indiana will have a solid defensive effort allowing Iowa to gain between 4.5 and 5.0 YPP. In past games, Indiana is a solid 16-3 ATS when allowing 4.5 to 5.0 YPP since 1992. Take the Hoosiers.

25* graded play on TCU as they take to the road to face West Virginia set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will cover this spread and more than likely win the game. West Virginia

25* graded play on Missouri as they take on the Florida Gators set to start at Noon, Saturday , November 3, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Florida is coming off a horrific loss and have all, but lost any chance at a National BCS berth. This type of loss is nearly impossible for young athletes to overcome, no matter the elite qualities of the coaching staff. Making matters worse is that the Gator players know they are

30* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on No. 1 Alabama set to start at 8:30 PM ET Saturday. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi State will make this a very close game and I fully expect this to be a game that

25* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on TCU set to start at 3:30 PM ET.. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma State will win this game by 10 or more points. My work shows that there is minimal chance that the TCU defensive unit can keep Oklahoma State to fewer than 28 points. In past games when TCU has allowed more than 28 points they are 0-2 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-51 ATS since 1992. Fine tuning this scoring to range between 35 and 41 points, TCU is 0-1 ATS this season, 1-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 3-20 ATS since 1992. When the Cowboys have scored 28 or more points they are 21-9 ATS over the past three seasons. Cowboys offense ranks seventh in the nation averaging 351 passing yards per game, eighth averaging 254.3 rushing yards per game, and fourth averaging 45.7 points per game. Their defense ranks 54th allowing 24.7 PPG. They are vastly better unit than this stat reflects knowing the SOS they have played and also that they are on the field quite a bit given the prolific scoring of their offensive teammates. TCU has scored 20 points or more in 33 straight games, which leads the nation, but I strongly believe that streak ends today. Take the Cowboys.

30* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Louisville set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Friday, October 26, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bearcats can win this game. Consider an option combination bet using the Bearcats on the line for an 18* amount and then use a 7* amoun playing the Bearcats using the money line. Let

15* graded play on Tennessee as they host Alabama in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 19 or fewer points. This is actually a game that has the potential to go down to the wire. In each of the past six season I have at least one 20 point dog win the game outright or lose in overtime to unsuspecting favorites. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-6 ATS for 85% winners since 2002. Play against any team with an incredible defense allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. Of the 41 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 23 of them or 55% covered the spread by seven or more points. I also believe with the sim

15* graded play on Michigan as they take on Michigan State set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. MSU is 9-21 ATS when facing good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 6-16 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards per carry since 1992; 2-13 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games since 1992. last week

15* graded play on Central Michigan as they host Ball State set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Central Michigan will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. CM is coming off a poor offensive showing losing 31-13 to Navy where they were installed as a 1 point favorite. However, they are a resounding 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992. The sim projects that CM will score 28 or more points and in past games where they have achieved this measure of offensive success they have posted a 44-17 ATS mark since 1992. Supporting the cover and upset projections is a money line system that has gone 50-21 for 70% winners and has made 35 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on a home team using the money line off a home loss by 14 or more points in weeks 5 through 9. Take Central Michigan.

30* graded play on California as they host Stanford set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will win this game. Stanford is coming a tough road loss in overtime at Notre Dame and this hangover will be a major factor they lose this game too. It is nearly impossible for coaching staffs to get their team to be resilient enough to bounce back after an overtime loss at the high school and collegiate levels of football. This is the 155th edition of the Big Game and the Stanford Axe is awarded to the winning team. Don

15* graded play on Arizona State as they host oregon in a big Pac-12 showdown on Thursday Night Football set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASu will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has an excellent opportunity upset the Ducks. Consider splitting this 15* amount into two parts with a 4* amount using the money line and a 11* amount getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-19 for 61% winners and has made a whopping 36 units per one unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged a +190 dog play and underscores that ASu has a great chance to win the game. Play against a road team using the money line off a home blowout win by 28 points or more and when playing on a Thursday. Th day of the week is extremely important as it changes the length of time teams have to prepare and this clearly favors the ASU defensive front. Here is a second ML system that has gone 43-11 for 80% winners making 35 units per one unit wagered since 2002. - Play on a home team using the money line after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games and in a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning. I strongly believe that the ASU has the athleticism, speed, and gap discipline to contain and disrupt the flow of the Ducks offensive juggernaut. ASu is the better defense by 116 yards per game in lined games and Oregon has yet to face a defensive front like ASU. WLB Brandon MaGee and Spur LB Chris Young can gain penetration and make the pair of RB (Barner and Thomas) and QB Marcus Mariota, make their first cut behind the line of scrimmage. The formation that Oregon has used to torch defenses has been with Mariota in the gun and flanked by the pair of running backs. This base formation then is executed with a myriad of fakes, misdirections, zone reads, and option runs. However, I do believe that ASU has what it takes to win the battle at the LOS against an offensive line that sometimes is bailed out of mistakes by the elite track speed of their running backs. Take the Sun Devils.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Mississippi State set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game so getting the three points is an added bonus for sure. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-4 ATS for 86% winners since 2006. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS spanning the last three seasons. Mississippi State is a perfect 5-0, but their SOS is one of the poorest in the nation. They have played Jackson State, Auburn, At Troy, South Alabama, and at Kentucky. By comparison, Tennessee has been seasoned by some of the best programs in the country in playing NC State, Georgia State, Florida, Akron, and at Georgia. With a 3-2 record, Tennessee knows that is a critical and pivotal game for their season. Win and they are two games from being bowl eligible. A loss puts them in need of three wins against on eof the following teams on the remainder of the schedule: Middle Tenn State, at Alabama, Texas A&M, at LSU, Arkansas, at Ole Mississippi. So, I am certain the coaches have made the team fully aware that a win is a must in this game. Tennessee has a strong offense averaging 39.4 PPG, 23.4 PPG in the first half, and 507 total YPG. By comparison, State has averaged 34.2 PPG, 21.0 points in the first half, 401 total offensive YPG. Now, when you factor in that the SOS of Tennessee has been monumentally stronger that what State has faced you can easily see that Tennessee should roll to a double digit win. Volunteer head coach Dooley is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Tennessee Volunteers.

30* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Miami (FL) set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by 10 or more points. The Miami defense has been destroyed by opponents this season and I expect the Tar Heels to do the same thing even though this game is in Miami. Tar Heels rank a solid 32nd in the nation averaging 286.3 passing yards per game and 31st gaining an average of 200.3 rushing yards per game. This balanced attacked ranks ninth in scoring at 44.0 PPG. They are also strong on the defensive side of the ball ranking 27th in the nation allowing 17.8 PPG. By comparison, the Miami offense is a pass dominated one. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 307.2 PPG and 90th averaging 134.2 rushing yards per game, and 55th averaging 30.2 PPG. The passing rank is a bit skewed as well, given that quarterback Stephen Morris threw for 566 yards against NC State and 436 yards at Georgia Tech. His other four games he has passed in a range of just 201 to 215 passing yards. Defensively, Miami is horrid, ranking 110th in the nation allowing 39.6 PPG, 122nd allowing 542 yards per game, and 121st allowing 6.9 yards per play. No doubt UNC will have great success against this defense. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 59-30 ATS for 66% winners since 2006. Play on any team that is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games; 43 of the 59 wins covered the spread by seven or more points. Sim also shows a detailed projection that UNC will score between 35 and 41 points and will gain 500 or more total offensive yards. In past games where UNC has scored 35 to 41 points they are 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 18-3 ATS since 1992. In games where they gained more than 500 yards they 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons and when scoring 28 or more points are 12-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Take the Tar Heels.

25* graded play on Colorado as they take on Arizona State set to start at 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 11, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. This is a situation where we have one team that has produced a 4-1 record and is 4-0-1 ATS going up against a

15* graded play on the Washington Huskies as they take on the Oregon Ducks set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 21 points. Where I really like this game is that Washington will be able to establish the ground attack. Washington runs a mostly balanced offensive scheme. Once they get the ground game going and force the Oregon safeties to move closer to the line of scrimmage, then play action will be open with man coverage on the perimeter and the middle of the field open to the tight end. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-16 for 72% winners since 2006. Play on a road team after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points and now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. The Washington offense has posted a strong 13.5 yards per point ratio reflecting that the offense is working well and they able to establish scoring drives. They will be playing on turf and Washington has posted a 11.9 yards per point offensive ratio. They have been able to control the clock having the ball 31:25 minutes per game and I think they will exceed 33:00 minutes in this game. The greater the disparity in time of possession favoring Washington, the greater the probability that this game could get very close in the fourth quarter. Take the Huskies.

30* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the LSU Tigers set to start at 3:30 in the Swamp. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-12 for 74% winners since 2006. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is an average passing team gaining between 175-230 passing yards per game and now facing an average passing defense allowing 175 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The Gators have been forcing turnovers and this is a significant reason they are 4-0. Moreover, this strong defensive and special teams play has carried over to the next game. Gators are a solid 10-2 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. LSU is going to have trouble attacking the Florida defense through the air. The sim shows a high probability that LSU will not gain more than 200 net passing yards in this game. LSU is just 16-34 ATS since 1992 when they have not exceeded the 200 yards net passing yards mark. J.C. Copeland is listed as probable for this game with a leg injury. he is a great lead blocker for the LSU running game, but he is not at a 100% and he has not competed against the speed and athleticism of the Florida defense. Moreover, I saw this unit bring all sorts of different stunts, straight blitzes, and zone blitzes against Tennessee and it had a big impact on their quarter Tyler Bray. he is a much more seasoned QB than LSU

25* graded play on Eastern Michigan as they take on Kent State in a MAC Conference Game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that EMU will lose this game by three or fewer points and will more than likely win this game outright. Consider a combination bet placing a 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount using the money line. The sim alsp shows that the EMU defense will play well and hold Kent State to 21 or fewer points. In past games where they have held an opponent to 15 to 21 points they have gone 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 13-4 ATS since 1992. Kent State is just 0-3 ATS the past three seasons and 6-17 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 15 and 21 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 84-43 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on any team that is a struggling offensive team gaining <=280 YPG) and is now facing a team with a poor defense allowing 390 to 440 YPG and after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This system has produced a 6-1 ATS record for 86% ATS winners. Here is a money line system that is truly remarkable and has produced a 25-13 record for 66% winners since 1992 and has made 31 units per one unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a most impressive +175 dog play. Play against a road team using the money line that is an offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and is now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=440 YPG and after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan.

15* graded play on Navy as they take on Air Force in a game set to start at 11:30 AM Saturday. The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by seven or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-34 using the money line and has made a whopping 51.7 units per one unit wagered since 2006 averaging a +210 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games in the first half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 27-10 for 73% winners and has made 30 units per one unit wagered averaging a +147 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line struggling passing team or one that is a dominant run oriented scheme gaining <=130 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 passing yards per game and after allowing 8 or more passing yards per attempt last game. Navy is a solid 18-9 against the money line (+14.6 Units) playing struggling passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game since 1992; 14-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) in road games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=425 yards per game since 1992.

15* graded play on Florida International as they host Arkansas State set to start at 7:30 PM ET, October 4, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that FI will win this game by a minimum of three points. Despite being 1-4 they have returned 17 starters while AS has just 10 seasons returners. This chemistry will only improve as new freshman quarterback E.J. Hilliard gets more accustomed to the offensive scheme and speed of D-1 Sun Belt football. He has replaced Medlock due to his ineffectiveness in leading the team and completed just 69 of 119 passes thrown. Hilliard has a great arm and he is now teamed with former Miami Northwestern star wide receiver Wayne Times. Hilliard completed two long passes of 54 yards ot Winston Fraser and 58 yards to Willis Wright. With Hilliard under center, it will stretch the Red Wolves defense forcing the safeties to respect pass first. This will open up the ground attack for the Panthers and I expect to see running backs Rhodes and Mallary have their biggest games of the season. Moreover, AS is just 3-12 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game since 1992; 6-16 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Take the Panthers.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Arizona in Pac-12 conference action. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Take the points as the money line does not offer any acceptable risk to include in a combination bet. The sim also shows a very high probability that OSU will score 28 or more points. In past games where OSU has scored 28 or more points they are 8-3 ATS over the past three years and 71-22 ATS since 1992. When Arizona has allowed 28 or more points they are just 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons and 18-72 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 19-15 and has made 38.2 units per one unit wagered since 2002. Play on road dogs using the money line that are off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a dog, and when playing on a Saturday. This simply eliminates about 5% of games played during the week and focuses on the main day of action for College Football. This system has averaged an incredible +280 dog play. Here is a second system that has hit 69% winners for an 18-8 record and has made 24.7 units since 2002. Play on a home team using the money line off a loss against a conference rival and now facing an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This system has averaged a +189 dog play. Last, but not least, Arizona is just 3-20 against the money line (-26.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 1-5 against the money line (-8.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take Oregon State

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Georgia set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-6 for 83% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite and is a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. This system has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Moreover, 20 of the plays made based on the system criteria have covered the spread by seven or more points. Georgia head coach Richt has not done well in these situations and has posted a 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games as the head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs. Tennessee has lost three straight to the spread, but have managed to win two of those three games SU. Tennessee is a resounding 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Take the Volunteers.

30* graded play on Florida State as they host Wake Forest set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Seminole football is back and they are the best contender to win the BCS, in my opinion. This is a big game for them on their ACC schedule and they know that a huge accomplishment. They are playing with revenge as well. Not, the revenge itself is the factor, but the stakes for this game are so much bigger and I fully expect an even better execution by both offensive and defensive units then we saw against Wake Forest last week. The Seminoles return 17 starters with eight on offense including their QB E.J. Manuel and nine starters on defense. This experience and chemistry cannot be underestimated and will be a dominant reason they win this game in blowout fashion. FSU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. The sim shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 17 or more points. It further shows that FSU will score at least 28 points in this game. Clemson is just 3-8 ATS the past three years and 15-51 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, Clemson is just 1-5 ATS the past three seasons and 7-22 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 29 to 35 points. The FSU defense is just plain nasty and they will hold Clemson to less than 100 rushing yards. In past games, where Clemson has not gained fewer than 100 rushing yards, they are 2-6 ATS the past three seasons and 14-29 ATS since 1992. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-12 ATS for 78% winners since 2002. Play against a road team after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and now facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. 61% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Take Florida State.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on the Georgia Bulldogs set to start at 7:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Vandy will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Georgia head coach Richt is just 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when facing mistake free teams posting 42 or less penalty yards per game; 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The storyline for this game will be the Vandy offense. We already know that the Vandy defense is perhaps one of the best units in the SEC. I firmly believe this defense will give Georgia a tremendous amount of problems being able to execute a consistent ball-control offensive scheme. Vandu is projected to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, Vandy is a solid 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 24-8 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 22 to 29 points in a game. I also would not surprised to see Vandy win this game and shock No. 5 Georgia. Supporting this claim is a system that has produced a record of 26-42 for just 38% winners, but has made 82 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play on road dogs of +315 or higher using the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. The average play for this winning monster system has been a +476 dog play. The line currently for this ML play is +500. Consider making a combination bet placing a 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount on the money line. Take Vanderbilt!

15* graded play on Auburn as they take on LSU in a big SEC showdown set to start at . The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by less than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 68-27 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play on a home team off an extremely close home win by three points or less with the game taking place in the first month of the season. of the 95 plays made based on the criteria of this game, 46% of them have covered the spread bys even points or more. This underscores by personal belief that Auburn will make this a single digit game and that LSU will be in for a much more difficult test than currently expected. LSU head coach Les Miles is coming of 63-14 win over Idaho and covered the 42 point spread. LSU has simply not played any opponent of substance and this is going to hurt them in this road SEC matchup. Moreover, Miles is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of LSU. Take the Auburn Tigers.

15* graded play on Florida International (FI) as they take on Louisville set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FI will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. FI is a team that does match up well against Louisville and I believe can control the pace of the game and gain an advantage in TOP. Louisville is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when facing an excellent ball control teams obtaining 32 or more possession minutes per game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 59-27 for 69% winners and has made 36.4 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play against road team using the money line in non-conference games and with 8 defensive starters returning in the first month of the season. Moreover, FI has returned 10 defensive starters and that experience and chemistry will pay huge dividends in this ga,e. Take Florida International.

25* graded play on the Missouri Tigers as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and may actually win the game in stunning fashion. As an optional consideration, a bet comprised with an 18* amount on the line and 7* amount using the money line offers a tremendous opportunity to capitalize on the upset bid by the Tigers. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry and after allowing one or less rushing yards per attempt last game. Of the 27 plays made based on the criterial of this system, 15 of them or 54% covered the spread by seven or more points. This underscores just how close I believe this game will be and the opportunity for the Tigers to upset the Gamecocks. I really like the Missouri pass defense in this matchup and believe they will contain the SC passing attack. The sim shows that SC will gain 200 or fewer net passing yards in this game. In past games, where Missouri allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards, they have posted a 28-18 ATS mark since 1992. Of significant note, is that Missouri QB James Franklin, who missed the last game due to a shoulder injury, will start in this game. SC is coming off a 49-6 beatdown of UAB and this game combined with a 48-10 win over East Carolina has served to inflate this line significantly. However, SC is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Missouri Tigers.

15* graded play on Temple University as they take on the Penn State Lions set to start in Happy Valley at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than six points. I also believe they will win the game, which would be the first time Temple has defeated Penn State in Happy Valley since 1942. What I love about this game is the Temple defense will contain the Penn State offense. The sim shows a very high probability that PSU will score between 15 and 21 points in this game. In past games, where Temple held an opponent to this range of points they are 3-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-4 ATS since 1992. The other matchup where I see Temple dominating is their power run game. The sim shows a high probability that Temple will gain between 200 and 250 rushing yards. In past games where Tempel has gained this range of rushing yards they are 15-5 ATS since 1992. Moreover, I don

15* graded play on Kent State as they take on Buffalo in Wednesday Night action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.. The simulator shows a high probability that Kent State will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game. The sim shows a detailed projection calling for Buffalo to average between 6.5 and 7.0 passing yards. In past games, this has been good news for backing Kent State as they are a solid 5-1 ATS since 1992. Although a small sample size of two games, Kent State has been far better in the red zone on both sides of the ball than Buffalo. KS has scored on 90.48% of their red zone possessions and the defense has allowed points to be scored by opponents in just 72% of the occurrences. Buffalo has scored on 80% of their red zone possessions while allow opponents to score on 90% of their red zone possessions. The sim also shows that Kent State

25* graded play on Boston College as they take on Northwestern set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This is an upset alert and I strongly believe that BC will win this game. They have 10 returning starters on offense including their quarterback and this experienced unit will be matched up against a Northwestern defensive unit that returned just five starters on defense. Moreover, BC returns seven defensive starters for a total of 17 of 22 starting positions from last years team. Northwestern returns just five each on offense and defense for a total of 10 starters . The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 49-17 ATS for 74% winners since 1992. Play on all dogs of 3.5 to 10 points with 6 or more total starters returning than opponent with the game taking place in the first month of the season. Of the 66 plays made based on the conditions of this system, 31 of them or 47% have covered the spread by seven or more points. The sim shows a very high probability that BC will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards. In past games, BC is a perfect 6-0 ATS when they have gained 150 to 200 rushing yards in a game spanning the last three seasons. Take Boston College.

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Wake Forest set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by a minimum of 31 points. They remember last year

30* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they take on Middle Tennessee State set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida Atlantic will lose this game by six or fewer points. FA head coach Carl Pelini returns seven starters including his quarterback on offense and eight starters on defense for the 2012 campaign. They have already matched last year

15* graded play on UMASS as they host Indiana set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UMASS will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 22-8 for 73% winners and has made 20.2 units using the Money Line since 2002. Play on a home team using the money line in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight losses and is a marginal losing team from last season who won 40 to 49% of their games. Here is a second system working against Indiana and has produced a 33-13 record for 72% winners since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game and now facing an opponent after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game. Currently you can get at least +500 on the money line or more, so consider breaking this 15* amount into a 12* amount using the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Take UMASS.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Penn State set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will win this game by 13 or more points. It is a shame what has happened to the PSU football team and the entire program. I admire their tenacity to march forward and take on all comers. That is a lesson these young men will carry with them the remainder of their lives. yet, they just are not a good team as evidenced by the collapse last week against Ohio University. As much as my heart wants them to win-out despite the losses of some of the best players on the team, it is just not realistic to expect that currently. The sim shows a high probability that UVA will score more than 28 points in this game. In past games where the PSU defense has allowed 28 to 35 points in a game they are 6-18 ATS since 1992. The PSU running game is nearly non-existent going up against this UVA defensive front seven. In past games where PSU has gained between 3.5 and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt they are 0-7 ATS the past three seasons and 7-23 ATS since 1992. Worse is that the passing game is not going to offset the lack of a ground game. In past games where PSU has gained just 5.5 to 6.0 passing yards per attempt they are 0-3 ATS the past three season and 5-15 ATS since 1992. Last when PSU has allowed 28 or more points they are 1-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 8-34 ATS since 1992. Take the Cavaliers.

15* graded play on Utah as the take to the road to battle Beehive state rival Utah State set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game by 10 or more points. The sim also shows a high probability that Utah State will gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards in this game. In past games where the Utah defense allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards they have produced a 3-1 ATS mark over the past three seasons and 31-13 ATS mark since 1992. Utah returns nine players on offense, including their quarterback and seven defensive starters for a total of 16 of 22 starters on both sides of the ball. They will be matched up against an Aggies squad still celebrating one of their first winning seasons in memory, but returning only six starters including their QB on offense and just six more from the defensive unit. The fact that Utah has nine returning starters will clearly show in tonight

15* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Virginia Tech set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Monday. The simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Sim shows a high probability that GT will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. VT is just 10-22 ATS when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in a game since 1992. GT runs the triple option and although VT has had months to prepare for this offensive scheme, it will not matter. GT is projected to gain between 200 and 250 rushing yards in this game. In past games where VT has allowed 200 to 250 rushing yards they are just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 3-14 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 ATS for 83.3% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and is a bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games, but still had a winning record last season. Take Georgia Tech.

25* graded play on Southern Methodist University as they take on Baylor set to start at 6:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by eight or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Further projections shows a better than 90% probability that the Mustangs will score 28 or more points. In past games where they scored 28 or more points 42-18 ATS since 1992 and 9-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Another projection shows that SUM will average between 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards per attempt. In past games achieving this range of passing, SMU is 15-4 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Any team in the first week of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers and is a team that had a good record last season winning between 60% to 80% of their games playing a team that had a winning record. This system has gone a remarkable 15-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Take SMU

15* graded play on Toledo as they take on Arizona set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by 10 or fewer games. Arizona has a new coach, but I do not see this team making great strides this season. Moreover, thy have been huge money briners when installed as a double digit favorite. Arizona is just 2-12 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. The si also shows a high probability exceeding 90% that Toledo will score 28 or more points. In past games, Toledo is a solid 68-21 ATS when scoring 28 or more points in games played since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 21-6 using the money line for 78% winners and has made 18.5 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play on road teams using the money line in the first week of the season after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins and is a team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. Take Toledo.

15* graded play on Rutger as they take on Tulane set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rugers will win this game by 21 or more points. The Rutgers defense matches up very well against the Tulane. The sim shows a high probability that they will hold them to 5.0 or fewer net passing yards per attempt made. In past games Rutgers is a perfect 4-0 ATS spanning the last three seasons and 27-5 ATS since 1992 when they allowed five or fewer yards per pass attempts. The sim also projects that Rutgers will score 28 or more points. In past games, Rutgers is 54-18 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-2 ATS since 2002. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and is a good team from last season outscored opponents by seven or more points per game and with 8 defensive starters returning. This system is 12-0 ATS over the past five seasons. Take Rutgers.

25* graded play on Boston College as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will win this game. If the line does move to three points from its

15* graded play on Boise State as they take on Michigan State in game featuring two hihgly ranked team squaring off for their opening game of the season. The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will lose this game by five or fewer points and has a very realistic opportunity to proven they belong in the Top-10 nationally with an impressive road win. There has been much talk about key personnel that BS lost starting with their quarterback and how MSU is set to go after the Big-Ten Title and to a BCS bowl game. The line more than reflects this fact and in my opinion based on the simulator projections has overshot it by at least six points. BS has been very well prepared at the start of their last four seasons where they have gone 50-3 SU and are 8-0 ATS in road tilts the first half of the season spanning the last three seasons. Even the home field advantage that Boise enjoys and that he artifical turf color is Sky Blue has been used against them. However, head coach Peterson is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play against any team in the first week of the season after closing out last season with three or more straight spread winners and is a team that had a good record winning between 60% to 80% of their games and is now playing a team that had a winning record. Boise take this one.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they host South Carolina in the first regular season game and SEC opener for both teams. Football is finally here and this one of the many great matchups for Week 1 of the College Football card. Vanderbilt took a step forward with their football program in 2011. This is arguably one of the best teams Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier has had to coach and they are expected to contend in the SEC. Still, this is a sever road test for a Week 1 matchup that will be telecvised nationally with Vanderbilt plenty to prove.

Vanderbilt returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. Of these eight starters, they have their three best athletes in quarterback Jordan Rodgers, running back Zac Stacy, and playmaking wide receiver Jordan Matthews returning. They did lose key personnel on a defensive unit that ranked 18th in the FBS allowing an average of 323 total yards per game and 29th allowing just 21.6 points per game. Keep in mind these stats were attained the SEC conference.

South Carolina returns seven starters on offense led by quarterback Conner Shaw, but their defense will struggle early on this season with just five starters returning. Spurrier is one of the best offensive minds in the game and he will be leaning on Shaw to improve on his already strong numbers from last season. Shaw had a great second half to the 2011 season completing 66% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He is also a threat to run the ball scoring eight rushing touchdowns over this span. However, I do believe that the Commodores defense will be able to contain him and to force him into mistakes creating opportunities for turnovers.

Simulator Projections and Supporting System
Vanderbilt will look to run the ball first, which in turn will set up the play action pass plays. The simulator shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by seven or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a solid money line system that has gone 86-103 for just 46% winners, but has made a whopping 71 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line with five or more more defensive starters returning than opponent in games played in the first month of the season. Team chemistry is a vital ingredient for teams looking to get out to fast undefeated starts and in this case Vanderbilt has that advantage and has a great shot at producing the first significant upset of the CFB season.

30* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2005. Play against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. There are several game situations that under score the strength of this play. Arkansas is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Of the following historical situations the simulator shows a very high probability that Arkansas will meet or exceed these conditions. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS when they allow 14 to 21 points in a game spanning the past three seasons; 14-4 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt; 8-2 when they have rushed for 100 to 150 yards spanning the past three seasons; 20-7 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points in a game spanning the last three seasons and 7-3 ATS this season; 5-1 ATS this season, 15-5 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained 6.5 or more total yards per play. Arkansas ranks 13th in the FBS gaining 308 passing yards per game, 78th gaining 138 rushing yards per game, and 14th scoring 37.4 points per game. The defense is better than their 38th ranking of allowing 22.8 points per game. Arkansas junior quarterback Tyler Wilson is 6-3 and 220 pounds and has become a mature and elite passer of the football. He has connected on 63.1% of his 407 pass attempts for 3422 passing yards, 22 touch downs and just six interceptions. This adds up to a solid 148 passer rating. Jarius Wright is the elite senior receiver with 63 receptions and 1029 yards gained and 11 touchdowns. The Warren, AR native is 5-10 and 180 pounds, but is lightning quick and his first step in cuts immediately creates space against the best back in the nation. K-State will be forced to use bracket coverage against him and once Wright sees this, they will go to slant and crossing routes in the vacant middle part of the field. I believe Wright could easily have 10 or more catches in this game. Perhaps the biggest problem facing the K-State defense is how to defend junior TE Chris Gregg, who had 40 catches and 492 yards for a 12.3 yards per catch average. Moreover, he gained 12.1 yards per catch against AP ranked teams and he will a menace for the K-State linebackers to cover in space. Take Arkansas.

15* graded play on West Virginia as they take on Clemson set to start at 8:30 PM ET in the Orange Bowl. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that WVU will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-18 for 70% winners since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This system has gone a perfect 3-0 against the money line this season. You will see and enjoy one of the most under rated quarterbacks in all of college football. Geno Smith is 6-3 and 214 pounds and has transformed a dominant run based program into nam aerial attack that has drove defensive coordinators out of their minds. The quality that stands out most on tape, though, is Smith's poise. He can hang in the pocket, remain oblivious to the rush and deliver an accurate throw while taking a hit. With more than a month of preparation, the entire offensive unit will perform at a very high level. Their offensive line had suffered injuries and

25* graded play on Michigan as they take on Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will win this game by four or more points. Sim shows a very high probability that Michigan will score 28 or more points. In past games where they have scored 28 or more points they are 8-2 ATS this season and 83-38 ATS since 1992. When the Hokies have allowed 28 or more points they are 0-2 ATS this season, 2-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-40 ATS since 1992. Michigan is back to their rich tradition of power football on both sides of the ball. They rank 87th in the FBS gaining 187 passing yards per game, 12th gaining 236 rushing yards per game, and 22nd scoring 34.2 [points per game. Defensively they rank 17th allowing 189 passing yards per game, 32nd allowing 129 rushing yards per game, and are seventh in scoring defense allowing just 17.2 points per game. Virginia Tech has a similar brand of football, but not as strong in the rankings as Michigan. The Hokies rank 63rd in the BCS gaining 227 passing yards per game, 30th gaining 189 rushing yards per game, and 53rd scoring 28.5 points per game. Defensively, they rank 38th allowing 206 passing yards per game, 15th allowing 108 rushing yards per game, and eighth in scoring defense allowing 17.2 points per game. In games where both teams played a similar strength of schedule the team rankings can be compared in a meaningful manner. However, Michigan has played a more difficult schedule than Virginia Tech and this skews the team rankings. In order to make them equal I factor in a strength of schedule quotient that is mathematically applied to the team rankings. On a 0-100 scaling with 100 representing a schedule where No. 1 LSU would play themselves 12 straight games since they are ranked No. 1 in the nation, Michigan comes in with a 75 score while Virginia Tech scores at 65 based on strength of schedule. So, this widens the statistical strength of the team rankings more in favor of the Wolverines. I especially, think that the Michigan defense is superior in all positions to Virginia Tech

15* graded play

25* graded play on Florida as they take on Ohio State in the Gator Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET., January 2, 2012. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. The key projection is that Florida will score more than 28 points in this game. In past games where Florida has scored 28 or more points they are 4-1 ATS this season, 17-4 ATS the past three seasons and 111-42 ATS since 1992. Ohio State got away with poor defensive play this season, but no team can continue to play erratic defense and still win games against elite teams. When Ohio State has allowed 28 or more points, they are 3-0 ATS this season, but 9-23 ATS since 1992. I strongly believe that is is a fluke that OSU (or any team) can go 3-0 ATS given up 29 or more points.Florida started off with four tsriaght wins and covers , but then went 2-6 SU and lost eight straight ATS the remainder of the season. The losing ATS streak does not mean that Florida is simple DUE to win, but it does show an adjustment of the line to an extreme that now favors Florida. I know I am in the minority stating that Florida will control the LOS in this game. The Gators have had more than a month of preparation and Ohio State has not played against a team with the speed and athleticism that Florida has on both sides of the ball. Ohio State will look to pound the ball and can use 252-pound FB Zach oBran for those plays. However, Florida has a vastly under rated nose tackle in Jaye Howard, who will mandate double team from OSU

25* graded play on Utah as they take on Georgia Tech in the Hyundai Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET December 31, 2011. Happy New Year! My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game. There is no advantage, however in playing the money line, or making a combination bet with the point spread and the money line. Utah

15* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Northwestern in the Menace Car Care Bowl set to start at Noon ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game by a minimum of 11 points. The simulator further shows that Texas A&M will gain better than 500 total offensive yards and will average 6.5 or more yards per play. In past games where Northwestern allowed these levels of offensive prowess they have posted an 0-1 ATS mark this season, 1-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-33 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 yards per play; 2-4 ATS this season, 3-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 19-38 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 or more yards per play. Texas A&M has posted a 3-1 ATS mark this season, 10-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 40-12 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 6.5 yards per play in past games. Texas A&M is getting some great news with their leading running back Cyrus Gray upgraded to probable for this bowl game. He is 5-10 and 200 pounds and has that rare combination of elite quickness and dominating power. He is playing his last game as an Aggie, being a senior, and I believe will be a strong player on Sundays. The Aggie offensive line has a significant advantage against the undersized Northwestern defensive front. Texas A&M runs one of the best balanced offenses in the country and this will be nearly impossible for the Wildcats to defend. If Northwestern has to bring a safety to help stop the running game, then the play action pass will lead to big gain plays and scores. Take Texas A&M.

15 * graded play on Iowa State as they take on Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium starting at 3:20 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will win this game. Iowa State has played a vastly tougher schedule and based on those performances they are the superior team on both sides of the ball. Moreover, the Big east is a vastly weaker conference and the fact is that Big East teams are an imperfect 0-5 ATS when facing a non-conference foe off a SU loss this season. I feel strongly that Rutgers will have trouble moving the ball against the Iowa State defense. This is reinforced by the sim projections showing that Rutgers will gain just 4.0 to 4.5 yards per play. In past games where Iowa State has allowed this range of offensive output they are 16-5 ATS since 1992 and 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The sim shows that Rutgers will have at least three turnovers - a rare projection with a high probability. In past games where Iowa State has forced three turnovers they are 6-1 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Iowa State

25* graded play on Washington as they take on Baylor in the Alamo Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET. I also recommend a combination bet playing 21* getting the points and then a 4* amount using the Money Line. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than nine points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-34 using the money line and has made an incredible 48.4 units per one unit wagered since 1992. The average play has been a plus 285 DOG play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line that is a solid team outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards per game and after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Sim shows a high probability that Washington will score 28 or more points in this game and will gain a minimum of 6.5 yards per play. In past games where Washington has scored 28 or more points they are 7-1 ATS this season, 14-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 7-34 ATS since 1992. When they gain 6.5 or more yards per play they have posted a 5-1 ATS mark this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 26-11 ATS since 1992. In past games where Baylor has allowed 28 or more points they are 5-4 ATS this season, 6-16 ATS the past three season, 41-93 ATS since 1992. When they also 6.5 or more yards per lay they are 3-3 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 17-47 ATS since 1992. This Baylor team is a strong one, but I refer back to my 25* CFB Game of the Year winner where Kansas installed as a 24 point dog tool Baylor to OT and it took a heroic comeback by RG3 to just get the game into overtime. Steve Sarkisian is an excellent preparing of his football team when having more than one week to prepare posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. Washington quarterback Price is the healthiest he has been than at any time over the last three months. He has a very strong and accurate arm and he has the weapons to assault the Baylor secondary. The best weapon and the one I see as a complete mismatch is with Baylor

15* graded play on Florida State as they take on Notre Dame set to start at 5:30 PM ET in the Florida Citrus Bowl. During the preseason many analysts, including myself, were thinking that this matchup would be a BCS Bowl game. However, both teams have modestly under performed expectations with each team sporting 8-4 records. As is always the case in South Bend, anything short of a BCS bowl game is considered a mediocre season. FSU is on the rise and have had two strong recruiting classes since the transition from the legend Bobby Bowden to Jimbo Fisher. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by four or more points. Seminoles rank fourth in the FBS allowing just 15.2 points per game, 19th allowing 193 passing yards per game, and second allowing 82 rushing yards per game. Kelly is just 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus excellent defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. No doubt, I see FSU defensive front dominating the Notre Dame offensive line and blowing up plays that take more than 2.5 seconds to be attempted. Notre Dame has issues with quarter as Tommy Rees just never earned the starting job this season. Problem is that he does not make good reads and not near quick enough. Coach kelly will be forced to use quick three step drops and then this allows FSU to jump routes. I would not be surprised to see FSU with a pick-6 in this game. The FSU rotates four positions and are able to stay completely fresh long into the fourth quarter and this group will wear down the offensive line. Take The Seminoles.

25* graded play on Texas as the take on California set to start at 8:00 PM ET in the Holiday Bowl. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-12 ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play against any team off a big road win scoring 38 or more points with the game taking place in the second half of the season including bowl games. 22 of these plats made based on the criteria of the system, or 49%, covered the spread by seven or more points.
The Texas defense ranks 14th in the nation overall and was first in the Big-12. They were lit up in their last game, but by Heisman Trophy winner RG3 (Robert Griffin III). I think that game simply an aberration and Texas will have had weeks to prepare for a solid California offensive attack. Cal is led by quarterback Zack Maynard and running back Iso Safely, who were largely responsible for the team winning three of the last four games this season. Their offensive scheme will look to take what the Texas defense will give them, which will be underneath routes, slants, and drags. Texas will play a base cover-2 and not allow any deep vertical routes to get behind them. Mack Brown believes the Texas running game will get back to the strength shown in mid -season with the return of many players that were out due to injury. He has them working very hard and will have three straight days of intense strenuous practices Sunday through Tuesday December 20. They will then back off steadily as the bowl game approaches and this shows how serious Mack Brown is to finish the season with a bowl win. I do expect Texas to establish the run and use more varied formations and misdirection running plays looking to get a quick Cal defense out of their gap disciplines. The return of a healthy Malcolm Brown will be key to this execution. The last four weeks of the season, Texas played without many of their offensive weapons. Running back Jaxson Shipley was out for three straight games and returned wearing a knee brace that limited his agility, but he played in pain nonetheless. Fozz Whittaker was lost for the season in a horrific ACL knee injury against Missouri. Freshman Joe Bergeron played well in their absence gaining 327 yards in wins over Texas Tech and Kansas, but then fell to a hamstring injury limiting him to just nine more carries the rest of the regular season.
With all, but Whittaker back in the stable of Texas running backs. The Longhorns will have a strong running game. They then can use play action to attack the seems and the middle of the field with ball control-type pass routes. This will end up being a game of field position.Game situations favor Texas in this game too noting that Cal head coach Tedford is a miserable 4-13 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Mack Brown is a solid 22-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of Texas. Moreover, Cal is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas as second TOP RATED 25* Titan winner.

25* graded play on UL-Lafayette as they take on San Diego State in the New Orleans Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET, December 17, 2011. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that LA-Lafayette (LAL) will lose this game by fewer than three points. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 38-35 for 52.1% winners, but has made a whopping 41.2 units per one unit wagered since 1992. Play against favorites of -175 to -400 using the money line off 1 or more straight

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they tame on Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game. This marks the second time in as many weeks that I have released a 25* Titan play on Wisconsin. In my opinion, they are one of the best teams in the nation right now and actually would be a formidable opponent for any of the Top-5 BCS teams. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off two straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. Equally impressive is the fact that of the 41 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 27 of them or 64%, covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my belief that this will turn into another Badger blowout win. My 25* Titan last week saw Wisconsin destroy Penn State 45-7 and this puts the Badgers into another strong system. This system has gone 63-28 ATS for 69% winners since 2000. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games that are off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival. If we throw out the betting line range to include all teams the results improve to 37-12 for 76% winners. The sim shows a very high probability that the Badgers will score more than 28 points. In past games where the Spartan defense has allowed 28 or more points they have posted a 1-1 ATS record this season, 2-10 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 23-68 ATS since 1992. Wisconsin is also playing with revenge having lost to the Spartans 37-31 and were installed as seven point favorites October 22. Badgers quarterback Russell Wilson had his worst game the season that day. He has thrown just three interceptions on the season and two of them occurred against the Spartans. The one interception just sailed on him and the second was trying to make a forced throw and get his Badgers into scoring position trailing in the second half. He is a vast student of the game and those mistakes will not be made this time around. Moreover, I do not see MSU having the run stop success they enjoyed in the first game. There are few teams in the nation right now that can stop the Badger pounding running game between the tackles led by Montee Ball. By forcing the MSU linebackers to squeeze toward the tackles for run support will set up

15 * graded play on Clemson as they take on Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game set to start 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Clemson will lose this game by six or fewer points. The sim shows a high probability that Clemson will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games where the Hokies have allowed 28 or more points they are 0-1 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-39 ATS since 1992. In past games where Clemson has scored 28 or more points they are 6-2 ATS this season, 13-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 67-28 ATS since 1992. Moreover, Clemson is 13-1 against the money line (+12.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 86-45 for 66% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. Take Clemson.

15* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Wyoming set to start at 2:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Colorado State will lose this game by five or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2000. Play against a road team off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog and is a solid team that is winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. Of the 39 plays made based on the criteria of the system, 22 of them or 54%, have covered the spread by seven or more points. Sim shows a high probability that CSU will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games where Wyoming has allowed 28 or more points they have gone 2-3 ATS this season, 6-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 33-71 since 1992. Wyoming was dominated last week in 36-14 loss to Boise State, but did cover the 32 point dog line. However, they are just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992. Take Colorado State

15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon in the first-ever Pac-12 Conference Championship game. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by 31 or fewer points. This is just two many points given that I am confident that UCLA will get a strong running game established early in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-16 for 73% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 21.5 or more points after scoring 9 points or less last game and now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Of the 59 plays made by the criteria of this system 28 of them or 49%, covered the spread by seven or more points. Here is a second unique system that ash gone 55-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival and with 6 or more total starters returning than opponent. Of the 79 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 36 of them or 45%, covered the spread by seven or more points. Sim shows a high probability that UCLA will rush for 150 to 200 rushing yards. In past games where Oregon has allowed this range of rushing yards they are 0-2 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-27 ATS since 1992. Take UCLA

15* graded play on UL-Lafayette as they take on Arizona set to start at 4:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that UL Lafayette will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Arizona has had a disappointing season and their defense has been shredded by many teams. LAL has done well against 'giving' defenses posting a 7-0 ATS in road games facing poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 34-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. This system has also produced a perfect 8-0 ATS spanning the past five seasons. Play on road dogs that are poor rushing team gaining 100 to 140 rushing yards per game and now facing an average rushing defense allowing 140 to 190 rushing yards per game and after 7 or more games and a game involving two non-conference foes. The sim projects that Arizona will have at least three turnovers in this game; not surprising for a poor record team. In past games where LAL has forced three or more turnovers in a game they are 4-1 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the past three seasons. I stronly believe this game will go down to the wire. Take LA-Lafayette.

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they host Penn State starting at 3:30 PM ET. The winner of this game will play in the Big Ten Championship next week. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 15 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 30-6 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Of the 36 plays ,made based on the criteria of this system, 21 of them or 58%, covered the spread by seven or more points. This system has gone an amazing 17-1 ATS over the past five seasons and 12-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games where Penn State has given up 28 or more points they are 1-4 ATS over the past three seasons and 8-32 ATS since 1992. The sim shows that the Wisconsin defense will do extremely well at containing the Penn State rushing attack. The Lions are projected to average just 3.5 to 4.0 rushing yards per carry. In past games where PSU has attained this range of rushing they are 0-3 ATS this season, 0-6 ATS the past three seasons and 7-22 ATS since 1992. PSU defense has played very well this season and have allowed only Alabama, who scored 27 points, and Northwestern, who scored 24 points, to score more than 20 points in a game. However, this Wisconsin offensive line is going to wear down Penn State in this game. I fully expect Wisconsin to dominate the line of scrimmage. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting that Wisconsin is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. Take the Wisconsin Badgers.

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Arkansas set to start at 2:30 PM ET. As we know, the top three team sin the nation based on the BCS ranking snot only come form the same conference. But also the same WEST division of the SEC Conference. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 14 or more points. LSU is simply going to wear down Arkansas on both sides of the ball as the game progresses. The LSU offensive line has a significant advantage in strength and size. What they do very well in the power running game, and few teams execute this any better, is that their offensive scheme forces the opposing line backers to get off of TWO blocks to get to the ball carrier. The Tigers run a ton of isolation plays out of I-formations with the fullback targeting the middle line backer. On these plays you will see the front-side guard and center will double team on of the defensive tackles and allow the fullback a clean path to the MLB. In other assignments the offensive guard will bump a defensive tackle and immediately get the to the second level and square up against an undersized line backer and then look to block a third linebacker that is converging to the hole. This too, allows the fullback to get the linebacker forcing him to get off his second block of the play. Obviously, with so many defenders constantly having to fight through two blocks is exhausting. The LSU defense is a great one. Arkansas has elite receivers that can gain separation easily and quickly, but when matchups up against the depth of the LSU corners that is all neutralized. LSU will use press coverage to disrupt the flow of the Arkansas offensive scheme and look to force receivers into route changes often. Keep a watch on LSU corner Mathieu as I strongly believe he will be going up against the Razorbacks best receiver in Joe Adams. Mathieu is one of the few in the country that can close on Adams, who is extremely quick and can get clean breaks off the line of scrimmage. If Adams impact on the game is minimized, it could be a complete blowout by half-time. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting that LSU is a solid 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game this season. The sim shows a high probability that LSU will gaining between 4.5 and 5.0 rushing yards per carry. In past games where they have achieved this offensive level they are 4-0 ATS this season, 6-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-8ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 28-6 ATS mark since 2000. Play against a road team after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Take the LSU Tigers.

15* graded play on Tulsa as they host Houston set to start at noon ET. PM. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Tulsa will win this game. There is limited opportunity expand this wager and make it a combination bet involving the money line. My strong recommendation is stay with a 15* play getting the points. Enjoying its highest ranking in more than 21 years, No. 8 Houston seeks a single-season school-record 12th consecutive victory as it visits Tulsa on Friday with a spot in the Conference USA title game on the line. Houston's quarterback Keenum, the NCAA's career leader in passing yardage (17,855), total offense (18,771) and touchdown passes (145), broke the FBS record for completions (1,427) last Saturday, completing 30 of 45 passes for 318 yards and a TD in a 37-7 rout of SMU. The SMU game was far closer than the score ended and I believe they provided the recipe to contain the Houston attack. Very few teams in the FBS have the personnel to completely shut down the Cougar offense, but by playing a mix of underneath man/zone and bracketing the perimeter has shown to be effective. The bottom line is that the winner of this game will gain the right to play in the C-USA Championship game next week. Tulsa has a high powered attack of their own and Houston is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when facing good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game since 1992. Tulsa has done very well against the elite passing teams sporting a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons. Moreover, Tulsa is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games spanning the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 28-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2000. Play against a road team after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. Take Tulsa.

15* graded play on Miami (Ohio) as they take on Ohio University in MAC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by seven or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 85-45 for 65% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after four or more consecutive straight up wins. Of the 129 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 52 of them or 40% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my belief that Miami can win this game. With a win the Bobcats can get to nine wins, which has occurred just six times in school history. Even with a loss, they would then have identical records with Temple and kent State, but the Bobcats defeated both of them and as a result would win the three-team tie breaker. This is the 88th time to the two schools have competed in the Battle of the Bricks game. Although it is Senior Day, I am very concerned that Ohio may fall flat in this game knowing that are playing for the MAC Title. Miami is a solid 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games since 1992. Take the Redhawks.

25* graded play on Texas as they host Kansas State set to start 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-5 ATS for 80% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference tilts and are excellent offensive teams scoring >=34 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 21 to 28 points per game and after 7+ games have been completed in the regular season. 50% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Texas is coming off a tough loss to Missouri where they were missing several key players and the rushing game suffered. Texas ranks 15th in the FBS rushing the ball. Fozzy Whittaker suffered a season-ending knee injury after tearing two ligaments in the first quarter last Saturday. Meanwhile, leading rusher Malcolm Brown (toe) and Joe Bergeron (hamstring) also missed the game. Brown is doubtful for this game and I expect Bergeron to play tonight based on public reports released Friday. Texas is very deep at running back and I am not concerned simply because the Texas offensive line has a massive advantage against K-State

15* graded play on Navy as they take on San Jose State set to start at 4:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Navy will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2000. This system has produced a 17-3 ATS record for 85% winners spanning the past five seasons. Play on any team after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games facing an opponent after being out rushed by 150 or more yards last game. Of the 44 plays made based on this remarkable system, 23 of them or 55% covered the spread by seven or more points. This under scores my strong belief that Navy will win this game by double digits. The sim shows a very high probability that Navy will gain 300 or more rushing yards in this game. In past games where they have gained 300 or more rushing yards they have gone 4- ATS this season, 11-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 56-24 ATS since 1992. The strong running attack will open easy to execute pass plays using play action. Navy may only throw the ball 10 times, but the sim shows that they will average better than 9.0 yards per attempt. In past games where Navy has attained this passing level they have gone 3-1 ATS this season, 13-5 the past three seasons, and 55-16 ATS since 1992. Take Navy.