Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-15 | Penn State v. Ohio State -17.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Ryan's algorithm based 35* TITAN releases have gone 10-1-1 ATS this season. He has THREE of them going on the Saturday card and all are big-time marquee games. 10* graded play on the Ohio State Buckeyes as they take on Penn State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show solid projections calling for OSU to win this game by 24 or more points. This line jumped out at me at fist given that it was much larger than I had expected. When the SIM projected OSU as the clear cut play I began to research the matchups. OSU has major advantages on both sides of the ball and will win the battle of the trenches. It seems that OSU has been sleep walking through some of their games and then turning on the 'gas' to get the win and pull away from their opponent. An Urban Myer led team is not normally like this and I fully believe that he will get his team focused and ready to play four quarters. PSU has struggled on offense, despite having a possible top-10 pick in Hackenburg. The OL has not been able to hold up consistently, especially under blitz situations and have allowed far too many sacks. Lions rank just 96th in yards gained and 115th in third-down conversions. With Hackenburg under duress on most plays he has completed only 53% of his pass plays and now will be facing an OSU defense ranking third with a 46% pass completion rate, 4th in yards allowed per pass, and sixth allowing 146 passing yards per game. The PSU defense does rank in the top-10 in several of the major defensive categories. They will be on the field a lot longer in this game than in past games and OSU will just wear them down with their depth. PSU will have too many three-and-outs and will not have more than 25 minutes in TOP. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a solid 102-34 ATS (+64.6 Units) when they allow 14 or less points; 61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt since; 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons. Take Ohio State. |
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10-17-15 | Missouri v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play on any team (GEORGIA) excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR against a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just 5-29 ATS (-26.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; Georgia is a solid 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Georgia is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Georgia has a very strong offense that will be going up against a vastly improved Missouri defense. However, Missouri's offense is not good and will not be able to compete and match the offensive output of the Bulldogs. Missouri offense ranks 119th scoring just 15.2 PPG while Georgia's ranks 26th scoring 35 PPG. Georgia has had a very difficult schedule, but still ranks 35th in opponent yards allowed at 4.9, 37th allowing 361 yards per game, and 33rd in opponent rushing yards per catty at 3.6. Missouri has big struggles running the ball ranking 103rd gaining just 3.6 and will struggle even more against a defense that has already played Alabama. I think Georgia will dominate both sides of the LOS and will score almost at will. Take Georgia. |
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10-17-15 | Michigan State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Michigan Wolverines as they host Michigan State in a major BIG TEN matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (MICHIGAN) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 52% of these plays covered the spread by 10 or more points and based on the SU record of the system the home team has a 47-4 winning record. The Michigan defense is very real and this year's edition of the MSU offense is not all that strong. The Spartans rank 58th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Wolverine defense ranks 1st in scoring defense at just 6.3 PPG and yards allowed at just 181 per game, and allowing only 2.9 yards per play. Michigan is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half in all games he has coached. His presence was expected to bring back Michigan to a Big TEN powerhouse, but it is happened far faster than anyone thought possible. After three straight shutouts, it is quite clear that the team is Harbaugh's and that the players are all on the same page. Dominant winning only makes the team family chemistry that much stronger and that much more focused. Michigan is the play. |
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10-17-15 | West Virginia v. Baylor -20.5 | Top | 38-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
35* graded play on Baylor as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 27 or more points. Baylor is the top scoring offense in the nation at 63.8 PPG, yards per game at 710, points per play at 0.83, yards per play at 9.3, and third down conversions at 61%. WVU is a decent team , but I don't believe they have the strength to match Baylor's offense for an entire game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-15 for 76% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP against a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Further, we see that WVU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and head coach Briles is a near-perfect Briles is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of Baylor. Take Baylor. |
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10-10-15 | Indiana v. Penn State -7 | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
35* graded play on Penn State as they host Indiana in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark using the first half line and good for 74% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PENN ST) in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. I do believe this play based on the SIM is valid to include a 5* play using the first half line. Indiana has a strong ground game, but PSU linebacker play has been improving steadily each week. They won't shut Indiana down, but they will do enough to force Indiana into passing downs and third and long situations. The big part of this game is that PSU will be highly productive in the ground game and will gain at least 175 yards and average between 4.5 to 5.0 yards per rush. In past games, PSU is a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. PSU quarterback Hackenburg is likely to be a NFL top-10 pick, but he has not had the time to display is elite arm. This game will give him that opportunity facing a Hoosier defense that has allowed an average of 503 yards per game. PSU defense has allowed just 284 opponent yards and only 158 opponent rushing yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosier coach Wilson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses allowing |
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10-03-15 | Arizona v. Stanford -11 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on Stanford as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 13 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At the college level some of the most important projections revolves around the number 28. Scoring 28 or yielding 28 often times leads to a direct correlation to an ATS cover. Arizona is just 16-44 ATS (-32.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 4-25 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards; Stanford is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Arizona is 3-1 as is Stanford. Arizona though is coming off a very humbling defeat to Conference powerhouse UCLA. In what was lined at pick-em ended with UCLA winning 56-30. Arizona completed just 10 of 28 pass attempts for only 115 yards and three interceptions. Stanford was upset by what is a much better Northwestern team than preseason previews indicated and has since won three straight in dominating fashion. Rushing yards has increased in each game this season. The last game saw them gain 325 yards on 48 attempts and I strongly believe they will gain 250+ in this matchup. Arizona will bring defenders into the box to stop the run and this will open up play action for high percentage completions. So, the Stanford passing game will be featured a bit more than usual to take advantage of what the Arizona defense sets. Take Stanford. |
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10-03-15 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -17 | Top | 35-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
35* graded play on Baylor as they take on Texas Tech in Big 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This game has also set the all-time high - at least in my database - for the highest total ever posted in Vegas at 90 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come down a touch to 88 1/2. Baylor's coaches know they have major advantages on both sides of the ball. I believe their goal will not be to get into a shoot out with this high powered Tech offense and instead use their unstoppable ground attack to wear down the much smaller Tech DL over the course of the first half. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=8.3 PYA and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is a very nice 5-1 ATS the last three seasons. Of the 34 plays made by the system, 53% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Of the wimnning plays, 65% of them covered by 7+ points. Here is a second system that ahs gone 111-57 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) excellent passing team with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 3-0 ATS this season and of all plays qualified by the criteria 48% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards I see no reason that would prevent Baylor from attaining more than 300 rushing yards and more than 550 total offensive yards. Take Baylor. |
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10-03-15 | Alabama v. Georgia +1 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia as they host Alabama in a huge SEC Conference showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 4 points. The public is on 76% of the tickets being written and it has pushed the line down to pick-em at the majority of books. Too much focus on the belief that Alabama just will lose their second game this early in this season. Yet, Georgia has an amazing offense that is highlighted by the media, but is still vastly underrated. More significantly, a win today would leave the Bulldogs with a much clearer path toward their first conference title in a decade, and a nearly certain spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia has only one other ranked opponent after Saturday's game: No. 25 Florida. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (GEORGIA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Last 3 seasons this system has gone 10-2 ATS and of all plays made since 2005, 52% of them covered by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-37 ATS (-28.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 102-47 ATS (+50.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. The algorithms show that Georgia will out gain Alabama in rushing and passing and will have at least a 1.0 yard per play advantage. Also, Alabama is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Last, check out this link to see the latest great IGA video. Not a reason to wager on this game, but still quite impressive and very well done. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/dawgnation/uga-releases-chilling-the-storm-hype-video-for-alabama-game. Take Georgia. |
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10-02-15 | Temple -20 v. Charlotte | Top | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on Temple as they take on Charlotte in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 24 or more points. Temple is coming off their BYE week and will be very well rested adn focused for this road tilt. They were heavy road favorites in their last game and needed a mircale finish to just win against UMASS. The minutemen are a pretty darn good squad though and trailed by just 1 point entering the fourth quarter to Notre Dame, before they went on a scoring spree and won going away. Temple will not be overlooking the opponent tonight that is playing in their first full season as an FBS team. They were gashed by Middle Tennessee and I believe Temple will do the same. Charlotte has a decent defense based on the flash stats, but there are several mighty big holes that Temple will be able to exploit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-29 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against any team (CHARLOTTE) poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). Further, you will see that Charlotte will struggle big in the passing game and may not even get more than 125 passing yards in this matchup. Yemple defense will dominate LOS and make it very difficult for Charlotte to score. Take Temple. |
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09-26-15 | Southern Miss +21 v. Nebraska | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
35* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on Nebraska in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM shows a summary projection that SM will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Although the probabilities are low for an outright upset shocker, I encourage you, if available, to put down another 3* unit on the money line. Each season I have had 20+ dogs not only cover, but win outright. I never know when one of these huge dogs is going to shock the world, so it is imperative to maintain your wager discipline each week in order never to miss out on any ATS win or ML gain. SM comes into this game with 10 returning starters on offense including their QB. These teams have experience and chemistry, especially on the OL, that be a significant competitive advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that SM is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. SM played hard against Miss State and covered in Week 1. When going up against weaker opponents the offense shined scoring 52 against South Alabama and 56 at Texas State. They have covered three straight. Nebraska is coming off a heart wrenching OT defeat to Miami where they came from behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter and then only losing in OT. These types of herculian efforts that don't end up in a 'W' can create a playing 'hangover' in the next week - especially when facing a supposedly inferior foe. Take Southern Mississippi. |
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09-19-15 | Iowa State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
35* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Toledo in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning straight up. Given this favorable upset projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for 26* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the probabilities that the upset will occur. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-9 record for 67% winners and has made an incredible 35 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +246 DOG play since 1992. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (IOWA ST) team with a horrible scoring defense last season that allowed 35 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State. |
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09-19-15 | South Carolina v. Georgia -17 | Top | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Georgia as they host South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by more than 21 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) that was excellent rushing team from last season averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The system under scores why I am on Georgia and it is simply because of the strong ground attack. Georgia's offensive line will wear down a much smaller SC defensive front over the course of the game. I expect Georgia to have well over 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards on 70+ plays from scrimmage. They will run about twice as much as pass and I just don't anyway SC can contain this offense. SC is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 or more total yards per play; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; Georgia is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2.5 to 3 yards/play. Sc QB Conner Mitch injured his shoulder last game and is out indefinitely. He was the new starter QB this season to a unit retuning just 4 starters. Take the Bulldogs. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +6 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they host Clemson in NCAA Thursday Night action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that Louisville will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid opportunity to win the game and avoid starting the season at 0-3. Clemson is 2-0, but played Wofford and Appalachian State, which are teams hardly as strong as Louisville. Louisville lost to Auburn 31-24, but covered as 10 point dog. Last week they did not play well in a home loss to Houston installed as a 13 point favorite. They are not this bad a team and the home loss only makes me more confident that Louisville is going to come out play as a very desperate DOG. The large leep in strength of competitor for Clemson will be a problem as it is impossible to simulate the change of speed and strength from their first two opponents to that of Louisville. I like making this a combination wager as well comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money lie. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I do expect this to be a war and not looking for Louisville to catch Clemson sleeping. Although that would be nice. What is nice, is that in closely played games based on the stat lines, Louisville is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by less than 50 yards. Take Louisville. |
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09-12-15 | Notre Dame v. Virginia +13 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
I will have additional releases being issued this afternoon so be sure to check back. 25* graded play on Virginia as they host Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a huge upset win. Last week the Irish defense was dominant over the Longhorns allowing 163 yards of offense and producing 11 3-and-out possessions. That may appear incredible, but that was against a Texas offense that I have ranked below 100th best in the nation. UVA returns five starters on offense, but they are going to be a much stiffer test for the Irish. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. UVA is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I really see a letdown here by the Irish after the big game last week and is demonstrated by the fact that they are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Virginia Cavaliers. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
35* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Minnesota in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 12-1 mark fo the past five season and 24-4 ATS since 1992 good for 89% winners. 63% of the games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) excellent passing team from last season with a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a money burning 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech -1 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Western Kentucky in Thursday Night NCAA Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New England Patriots. In summary, Big ben is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in games where the total is between 46 1/2 and 54 1/2 over the five seasons. Ok, on to the college report detail. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% win percentage) and playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match te SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LT is a solid 28-6 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; WKU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin +13 v. Alabama | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Alabama set to kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset. I would highly recommend making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 55-20 ATS (+33.0 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Here is the best one noting that Wisconsin is 9-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. It will be the massive ground attack by Wisconsin that will win this game for them and Alabama is vulnerable against big time ground attacks. They are 1-7 against the money line (-9.7 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. They also have not faired well in shootout type games. They are just 1-3 against the money line (-18.3 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The -18.3 units also reflects that they were big favorites in these games just as they are against Wisconsin tonight. Take the Badgers. |
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09-05-15 | Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Arizona State set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that A&M will win this game by at least 6 points. A&M returns 16 starters with 8 each on offense and defense and have their QB returning as well. ASU has retunred 7 starters on offense and not their QB. They do return 9 defensive starters, but I just don't see this unit containing A&M for four quarters. This is being contested at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. So although a neutral site, it certainly will have a home game feel for the Aggies. ASU was a blitz heavy defense last season and I fully expect them to bring blitz at least 60% of the time tonight. They blitz an average of 56% in 2014. However, A&M QB Kyle Allen had a better TD/INT ratio when facing the blitz then he did not facing pressure. Slip screens will work very well against an aggressive defensive attack. Plus, look for the TE in play action in vertical routes. A&M is the play. |
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09-05-15 | Virginia v. UCLA -19 | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Virginia in NCAA action set to start at the as they take on the action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.SIM shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 21 points. For the first time since 2002, UCLA will start a true freshman at QB in Josh Rosen, who is the No.1 ranked QB in the 2015 class. He has had tremendous practices and has excelled in scrimmages looking more like a veteran Senior signal caller than a kid fresh out of High School action. He will be well protected by an excellent offensive line and will have a strong ground attack led by Paul Perkins. He had 1575 rushing yards in 2014. The strong ground attack will set up play action for Rosen with his elite receivers in man coverage. He has the strength to stretch any defense and the vertical routes will be attacked against UVA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) good offensive team from last season scoring 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. It has gone 20-4 ATS over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is a solid 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992; 31-8 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992; 31-11 ATS (+18.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA. |
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09-05-15 | Louisville v. Auburn -10.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Auburn Tigers as they take on the Louisville Cardinal set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AUBURN) good offensive team from last season that scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and it has gone 20-4 over the last 5 seasons. The Auburn defense will be markedly better in 2015 having 8 returning starters from that unit. They will be going up against a Louisville offense that retunrs 5 starters including their QB. The lack of chemistry along the Louisville offensive line will allow Auburn to attack and make plays. Auburn will show blitz on nearly every play to add confusion to OL blocking assignments. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Auburn has a tremendous QB in Jeremy Johnson, who is 6-5 and 240 pounds with a pro strength arm. If you like betting Heisman long shots then this is your man. Take Auburn. |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State -17.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 37-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 21+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-10 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. Of all the wagers, 54% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; WMU is just 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992. WMU has had a great turn around to what was a dismal football program that went 1-11 in 2013. Coming off a winning season in 2014 will not be enough to make the step up in competition and face a strong Big Ten Conference foe. MSU is just too deep at the skill positions for WMU to be able to contain for four quarters. MSU offensive line is going to wear down the smaller sized WMU defensive front and will set up play action pass plays in man coverages. Take Michigan State. |
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09-03-15 | TCU -14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on TCU as they take on Minnesota in CFB action set to start as they take on the action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 17 points. TCU returns 10 offensive starters including their QB and this will be a huge advantage for them in this matchup. During the first month of the CFB season, teams returning all but one starter on either side of the ball have the experience and continuity of the previous season working for them. This is most notable on offensive lines where chemistry is major quality of excellent offensive units. Of course there are the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the NCAA world that simply reload with elite talent and offset the lack of experience quickly. TCU is an elite team and based on my power ratings from the SIM, they would be 9 point dogs to Alabama on a neutral field. So, I strongly believe that Minnesota will have a very tough time just containing the TCU powerhouse. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) and is a top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 46% of these plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. Here is a second system that has gone 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a third powerhouse system that has gone 34-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2005 and has gone 14-2 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good offensive team from last season scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 44-6 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Minnesota is just 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take TCU. |
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09-03-15 | South Carolina v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on South Carolina in NCAA Football action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. The line is at -2 1/2 favoring SC. Unless the line gets to -3, there is no opportunity to do a combination wager. If it does climb to 3, then consider making a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line to exploit the upset potential of this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Extremely high probability that UNC will score more than 28 points. SC is just 20-67 ATS (-53.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; UNC is a solid 82-34 ATS (+44.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. UNC returns 10 starts and their QB on offense and this is a monumental advantage for them in this matchup. The offensive line benefits the most form the past game experience and their blocking schemes and assignments are executed at a very high level. SC has just four returning starters on offense and their learning curve will take time even with Spurrier as the teacher. Take UNC tonight. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
50* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Oregon in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 44* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Broadly speaking, the biggest difference between these two elite programs is the simple fact that Ohio State has a vastly better defense than Oregon. Both teams have played an exact SOS this season so the national rankings are a fair comparison. Oregon ranks 29th in scoring defense (23 PPG), 84th in opponent yards per game (426), 53rd in allowed yards-per-play (5.3), and 75th in third down conversion allowed (42%). Ohio State ranks 19th allowing 22.1 PPG, 11th in yards allowed (333), 11th in allowed yards per play (4.7), and 22nd in third down conversions allowed (35%). Another major factor in this matchup is coaching where Ohio State Head coach Meyer has had 11 experiences at this level while Helfrich is in his first National Championship game. The venue is at Jerry's Palace and the media will be overwhelming. At the College Football level, coaching is monumentally more important in big games, then at the NFL level. The simple fact that the Ohio State players can fully trust everything that Meyer tells his team in order to prepare them cannot be over stated. Here are coaching trends that support Ohio State. Meyer is a solid 39-13 ATS (+24.7 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached; 42-13 ATS (+27.7 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached. Looking at the injury report we see Oho State's Dontre Wilson and Jeff Heuerman as probable. Yet, on the Oregon side of the report, we see two suspensions and several other possible suspensions yet to be confirmed. This is a clear sign of team distractions and uncertainty in a game where these conditions are magnified greatly. Ohio State QB Cardale Jones may have inexperience, but he is well supported by an excellent offensive line and numerous weapons. He has played in big games already and has posted a QBR of 159 with 7 TD and 1 INT. He is a big strong athletic QB standing 6-5 and weighing 250 pounds. He is bigger than all of the Oregon LB and arguably stronger. So, he is going to very tough to bring down when running in space or using his legs to extend plays. My conclusion is that Ohio State will wear down the smaller Oregon defense in producing long time consuming drives. Let's now take a look at the technical picture. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-32 mark using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 53 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has averaged a +292 DOG play. The winning percentage of 48% is irrelevant and the units won is all that truly matters with a powerful Money Line system. This is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and having essentially a 50/50 chance of winning each hand played. However, in this system, a winning hand pays of nearly 3:1 and this reflects the power of identifying DOGS that are projected to cover easily and also has a better than 55% probability of achieving the upset win. Take Ohio State. |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +8 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As we did with the 50* GOY winner on NC State, a combination wager is an excellent investment with an excellent risk/reward and total rate of return profile. So, consider making a 42* play on the line and then add an 8* play using the money line. Let's first look at the technical readings supporting FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) that that is a modest rushing team gaining between 100 to 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RY/G) after 7+ games, and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. I believe the FSU ground attack will be highly successful and will serve to generate a significant advantage in TOP. Clearly, FSU cannot get into a shootout type of game against Oregon. Further, FSU is 1-7 ATS L3 seasons and just 9-44 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent 28 or more points. So, I point that out ONLY because I am extremely confident that Oregon will not score 28 or more points. Note too, that Oregon is a money burning 4-11 against the money line (-12.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992; Additionally, FSU is a very solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992; 12-22 against the money line (-18.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Overall, Oregon is barely in the TOP-50 in defensive efficiency. They rank 52nd allowing 5.2 yards-per-play and 65th in third down conversions allowed (41%). FSU ranks 27th gaining 6.2 yards-per-play and 15th posting a 0.498 points-per-play ratio. Plus, FSU has arguably the best FG kicker in the game in Robert Aguayo, who has connected ton 25 of 27 FG attempted with an enormous leg. It may come down to him and I love FSU's chances with the game on the line for game winning FG. Take Florida State. |
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01-01-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Baylor in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game. There is certainly conclusive projections from the SIM that MSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are a very strong 8-2 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS L3 seasons when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-20 mark for 73% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has gone 8-1 using the money line and made 7.2 units/unit wagered this season. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MICHIGAN ST) an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system working against Baylor and has gone 35-14 using the money line for 71.4% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BAYLOR) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Getting back to the projections and now using the money line we see that MSU is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 against the money line (+20.6 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Take Michigan State. |
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12-31-14 | Boise State +3 v. Arizona | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game. The return on investment (ROI) is not validated by the current lines. If the line moves to 3 1/2 and a money line above 145, then making a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. Play on any team (ARIZONA) off a loss against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I see Boise State scoring at least 28 points in this game. Arizona is just 2-4 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS L3 seasons, and 22-86 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, they are money burning 2-6 ATS L3 seasons and 12-26 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 offensive yards. Arizona HC Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games facing high-powered offensive teams scoring 37 or more points/game in all games in his coaching career; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Boise's offense is going to exploit several weaknesses in the Arizona defense. Boise has the ground attack that will wear down the Arizona defensive front and setup excellent play action opportunities in man coverage. Arizona ranks a suspect 66th in the nation allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 120th allowing 278 passing yards per game. Boise's relentless and well balanced offense will dominate the game. Take Boise State. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on TCU in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome at Atlanta. I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then consider adding a 5* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game. Much has been made about the so-called chip on the shoulder that TCU has after they feel they were snubbed by Ohio State from playing the 4-team playoff format. Well, my research clearly shows that after this game, they will have no gripe whatsoever. I further believe that such a chip can actually work against a team in this type of situation. Far too much attention and focus is being made of the snub and the need to blowout Mississippi to prove their self-worth, that in the end the focus and attention to the execution of each play is lost. Supporting the 'under' play is a proven system posting a 46-16 mark for 74% winners since 2008. 55% of these plays went 'under' the total by at least 7 points. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OLE MISS) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG in non-conference games. Further, my analysis and SIM projections show a very high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points and that TCU is unlikely to exceed that mark. Mississippi is 6-2 ATS this season and 19-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Further, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. There is a major difference with the SOS played by these two teams and Mississippi has enjoyed the additional time off after playing the brutal West Division of the SEC Conference. TCU has not played a defense like Mississippi that has superior speed, quickness, gap discipline, and athleticism than any other team they faced. You simply cannot simulate game speed in preparation for the Mississippi defense. Freeze is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of Mississippi; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. Take Mississippi. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +8.5 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on LSU in the Music City Bowl set to start at 3:00 PM ET, December 30, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager by playing a 21.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. I like the change to Malik Zaire as it will undoubtedly lead to greater ball security and more mobility in the picket. I also think the Pistol can be un successfully as well. LSU boasts one of the best defenses in the nation in the majority of statistical measurements. However, the times they were torched it was in the vertical passing game that also served to open up the middle of the field for power running between the tackles and quick slants and 'ins' to TE. This will make an offense that ranked 29th with a 0.441 points-per-play ratio and 16th in passing yards per game significantly more efficient. LSU has struggled on offense and is the dominant reason they did not contend late into the season for a possible SEC Championship berth. They played in the very deep and talented West Division, but at the end of the day it was an offense that ranked 85th in scoring offense and 90th in total offensive production that has led them to the Music City Bowl. Notre Dame has been setting all-time records in scoring and yards allowed in their recent games. Yet, with all of this time to prepare I do see the Notre Dame defense being highly successful against a woeful LSU offense. Moreover, they will be prepared as well for the Les Miles "trickery plays''. The following game situations support my expectations for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is a very strong 10-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Notre Dame. |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. This game is being played at the Liberty Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for this game. WVU is just 2-9 against the money line (-11.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 13-30 against the money line (-27.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 5-18 against the money line (-31.4 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas A&M is a solid 13-3 against the money line (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; 15-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 12-3 against the money line (+14.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Further, the added rest for West Virginia has not ended up being a positive factor knowing they are an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-9.4 Units) after a bye week(s) over the last three seasons. Holgorsen is 2-6 against the money line (-14.4 Units) after a bye week as the coach of WVU. In media outlets, the focus has been on the apparent weakness in the A&M defense. Yet, they are not nearly as porr a unit as they would lend you to believe. In fact, they rank 68th in the nation with a 0.376 points-per-play ratio and 30th in opponent red zone scoring. What is confirms is that A&M is a bend and don't break type of defense. They can allow a ton of yards between the 20's, but when in the red zone, the defense has consistent scheme in keeping teams from getting into the end zone. What is even more eye-pooping is that WVU ranks 70th in the nation with a 0.381 points-per-play allowed and 79th in passing yards allowed per game (294). A&M loves to throw the ball and they rank 14th averaging 298 passing yards per game. So, I strongly believe it will be the West Virginia defense that will be under immense pressure to keep A&M from scoring points on almost every drive. Take the Aggies. |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on USC in the Holiday Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game is being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA. The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-13 mark, BUT making 25 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 2004. The average play for this system has been a very impressive +211 DOG. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (NEBRASKA) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. I am seeing lines starting at +225 and going as high as +250 for this play. Further, I am confident that Nebraska will score 28 or more points. In past games, USC is a miserable 1-4 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the L3 seasons, and 15-61 ATS since 1992 when they have yielded 28 or more points. When Nebraska gets the offense rolling and have scored at least 28 in past games, they are 6-3 ATS this season and 112-58 ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) -3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in a great matchup of major Conferences set to to place in the Independence Bowl beginning at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 6 points. Both teams have played a difficult schedule so the rankings and stat comparisons are quite valid. The biggest difference in this game will be the Miami defense that ranks 18th in yards per play allowed and 51st in points-per-play allowed. They have been very strong against the pass this season and this matches up quite well to SC offensive scheme under HC Spurrier. Canes rank 15th allowing just 6.1 yards per pass and 17th allowing 193 passing yards per game. Miami will force far more 3-and-outs and will enjoy a major advantage in TOP. The SC defense just will not be able to stand up to the constant pounding by Miami and the extended periods of time on the field. I also believe that Miami will attack the middle of the field immediately after forcing SC in a 3-and-out or short duration drive. This undoubtedly will wear the SC defense down gradually as the game progresses. I see Miami scoring at least 28 points. In the past they are 15-6 ATS L3 seasons and 92-46 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points. SC is a money burning 2-5 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the L3 seasons, and 20-67 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take the Hurricanes. |
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12-27-14 | Duke +7.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Duke as they take on Arizona State in the Sun Bowl taking place at Sun Bowl Stadium in ElPaso Texas and set to start Saturday at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. It has gone 3-1 ATS this season. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. Duke is a very solid 9-2 against the money line (+12.2 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-2 against the money line (+7.4 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 8-15 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 20-24 against the money line (-20.3 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1992. ASU has had a long history of struggling against strong running teams like Duke. They have posted a miserable 11-36 against the money line (-29.4 Units) en facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The strong ground attack is going to be a dominant reason Duke wins this game. The strong ground game then sets up play action where ASU has struggled in man coverage, especially in the middle of the field in underneath or bracket coverage. Duke is a very smart football team as evidenced by ranking 20th best in the nation throwing an INT on only 1.76% of plays and ranking 6th allowing a QB sack on just 3.17% of plays. Take Duke. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +2.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 0 m | Show |
50* graded play on the NC State as they take on UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET, December 26, 2014. NC State played a vastly more difficult schedule this season and I strongly believe their strong ground attack will dominate the UCF defense throughout this game. NC State ground attack ranks 21st in the nation gaining 5.2 yards per attempt and 37th gaining 201 yards per game. Shadrach Thorton leads the team with 147 attempts, 811 rushing yards, and 9 TD. Wolf Pack QB is second with 110 attempts and 498 yards and 3 TD. Although not spectacular season stats, they have gained 362 rushing yards in a win over Wake Forest and 388 yards in their last game against state-rival UNC. This has been a dramatic shift in their offensive schemes and will be quite difficult for UCF to fully prepare for in this matchup. Further, the UNC air attack has strong enough that UCF must respect the presence of play action as well. Bo Hones leads the team with 42 receptions and 537 receiving yards. Yet, it is TE David Grinnage, who I believe will have a big day off of these play action pass situations. He is an excellent run blocker, BUT at 6-5 and 270 pounds is a huge target in open space. He has 24 grabs and 5 TD on the season. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by 10 or more points. The public has steadily bet UCF and I do see the possibility of this climbing from a current level of 2 points to possibly 3 by game time. Normally, I would suggest a combination wager with a DOG. However, unless the line climbs to 3 1/2 the combination wager does not produce enough (ROI) to be valid. So, if it does get to 3 1/2 or higher, then a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line would be valid. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) with a solid offense gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. We already know NC State had a huge game winning 35-7 over rival UNC and easily covered as a 6 1/2 point dogs. Take North Carolina State. |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan +4 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play Central Michigan as they take on Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at Noon Christmas Eve. I want to take this moment to wish every the best Christmas possible and best wishes for the New Year. I greatly appreciate your loyal support of my plays as it obviously has supported my family over the 18 years I have been here on Vegas Experts. The simulator shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. The public is starting to bet WKU and I believe the line will go to 3 1/2 points. This is important as at that level a combination wager produces a very good return on investment (ROI). So, if you are able to get 3 1/2 , the consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. CMU has some very strong historical trends backing them. They are a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing poor rushing defenses allowing >=200 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing weaker defensive teams allowing >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. CMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Based on the matchup projections I see CMU gaining at least 5.5 yards per play. In games played where they have attained this benchmark they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I also believe that CMU will score 28 or more points. They are a quite strong 12-5 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. Take Central Michigan. |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome I see in this matchup. Marshall is 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 300 or more rushing yards; 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for more than 6.0 yards per attempt; 13-4 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when they outgained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play. Northern Illinois is just 2-9 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 28 or more points. On the injury front, the news that Marshall RB Devon Johnson has been upgraded to probable is a significant plus for them. SOS is nearly equal with NIU having only a modest tougher schedule. So, the statistical rankings are comparable and show Marshall to be a vastly superior team. Marshall ranks 5th in scoring offense while NIU ranks 47th and more than 14 points less per game. The Marshall defense ranks 24th allowing 22 PPG while NIU defense ranks 46th allowing 25.3 PPG. NIU runs the ball 63% of the time, which is the 16th highest in the nation. They rank 16th in rushing yards, 13th in rushes per game (47), 24th in yards per rush (5.1). Although NIU doesn't pass that often, when they do they connect on a 60% completion percentage. This combo of run/pass is what has made NIU a very tough to beat in their conference. However, Marshall has elite coverage CB and LB, who also maintain excellent gap discipline. This combo will most assuredly disrupt NIU offense and their ability to move the chains and produce drives ending in scores. This game will not be about how many sacks or interceptions Marshall produces, but rather how many times they force NIU into third and long situations. Take Marshall. |