Lions vs Eagles 
8:20 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as a 2.5-point favorite. 
5-Unit bet on the UNDER priced at 46.5 points. 

NFL Betting System: Lions vs. Eagles (Prime-Time Showdown) 

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST 

 Play: 5-Unit Wager on UNDER 46.5 Points. Consider betting 3 units preflop on the UNDER and then look to add 1 unit more at 49.5 points and the final unit at 52.5 points during the first half of action only. The downside is that both teams get out to a slower than expected start and the the prices above the current market price are not reached. 

I do not advise betting parlays or teasers, but if that is to your liking, this may be a solid opportunity to exploit.  

System Overview 

This proven NFL betting algorithm has delivered a 23-10-1 record on UNDER bets (70% win rate) over the past five seasons. The criteria for triggering this play are: 

Winning Team Profile: 

 The team involved has won 60% or more of its games this season. 

Prime-Time Spotlight: 

 The game is scheduled for prime time (after 6:00 PM ET). 

Upcoming Divisional Matchup: 

 The qualifying team will face a divisional opponent on the road in its next game. 

Now for the betting opportunity on the Eagles.  
System Performance 

This algorithm has delivered 81-52 SU and 83-49-1 ATS results (63% win rate) over the past 12 seasons. When additional conditions apply, the edge becomes even stronger. 

Core Criteria 

Defensive Dominance: 

Bet on a team that held its previous opponent to fewer than 10 points. 

Opponent’s High-Scoring Context: 

The opposing team is coming off a game where they and their previous foe combined for 50 or more points. 

Enhanced Home Angle 
If our qualifying team is at home and facing a conference opponent, the historical record improves dramatically: 

31-12 SU (72%) 

28-14-1 ATS (67%) 

over the past 10 seasons. 

Titans vs Texans 
1 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Titans priced as a 5.5-point underdog. 

Here is a situational betting algorithm that has gone 49-19-1 SU and 48-20-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on any team facing a foe that trailed by double-digits at the half. The opponent did come back and won that previous home game. If the game takes place between weeks 6 and 12, these dogs have compiled a very impressive 13-4 SU (77%) and 14-3 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2011. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-13 SU (47%) and a 19-3 ATS record good for 86% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home dog of 5 or more points. The home team has had 10 or more days of rest. The home team has a losing record. The home team scored 14 or more points in their previous game. The home team won 8 or fewer games in the previous season. 

Bengals vs Steelers 
1 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Bengals priced as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 8-13-1 SU and 19-3 ATS record good for 86% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.  

Bet on conference road dogs.  

The dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points.  

The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe.  

The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 31-29 SU and a 44-14-2 ATS result for 76% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:  

Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.  
The game is a divisional showdown.  
The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.  
The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. 

Panthers vs Falcons 
1 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as a 3.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 31-29 SU and a 44-14-2 ATS result for 76% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:  

Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.  
The game is a divisional showdown.  
The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.  
The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. 

Bucs vs Bills 

1 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Bucs priced as a 6-point underdog. 

The following betting algorithm has produced a 45-21 SU 46-17-3 ATS result good for 73% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games.  
That road team is coming off a home loss.  
The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. 

Jets vs Patriots 
8:15 EST 
7-Unit bet (5,7, and 10 Unit grading) on the Patriots priced as a 13.5-point favorite. 

The following betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 37-14 SU and 32-18-1 ATS good for 64% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are: 

Bet on any team that gained 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 

The opponent gained fewer than 200 total yards in their previous game. 

Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 or more points, they have gone 29-4 SU (67%) and 21-11-1 ATS good for 66% winning bets.  

The following betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 19-1 SU and 16-4 ATS good for 80% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: 

Bet on excellent home teams that are averaging 7.3 or more yards per attempt. 

This team has gained at least 6.75 yards per pass attempt in each of their last four games. 

The opponent is a horrid passing team averaging 5.3 or fewer YPPA. 

The Patriots are averaging 7.5 net yards per pass attempts, which includes lost sack yards, and ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Patriots rank second in gross yards per pass attempt at 7.98 yards per pass. Only in week 1 have the Patriots not averaged over 8.2 gross yards per pass attempt.  

The Jets became the first team since 1950 to win a game in which they forced no turnovers and gained fewer than 175 yards last week against the Browns.  

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Eagles vs Packers 
MNF 
7-unit bet on the Packers using the money line if priced no greater than a 1.5-point favorite.  

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 17-6 SU (48%) and 18-5 ATS good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on  

Any team if they have lost at least three of their last four games to the spread. 

They have won between 60 and 80% of their games. 

If the game airs in prime time, then these teams have gone 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS for 100% winning bets. 

If the opponent’s win percentage if 60% or better, these teams have gone a sparkling 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS good for 81% winning bets. 

From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is projecting that the Packers will score a minimum of 24 points and have no more than one turnover and will have the same or fewer turnovers than the Eagles. In past home games, GB is 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS (94%) since 2021 when netting or exceeding these performance measures. 

Player Prop Bets:  

Why to Consider: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer+115 to +135  
Frequent QB sneaks, goal-line usage, value in context of Packers’ stance on the “tush-push”  

Romeo Doubs Over 4.5 Receptions~-121 Elevated target share without Kraft, consistent recent performance. 

Luke Musgrave Over 3.5 Receptions+120 or –110 Increased opportunity due to Kraft’s absence, fresh target ceiling for Musgrave 

Lions vs Commanders 
4:25 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as a 9.5-point home underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 13-24 SU record and a 28-8-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 2000. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: 

Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 to 10 points. 

The game occurs in November. 

They have lost five or six against the spread spanning their last 7 games. 

Their defense allows 24 or more points per game. 

Their offense scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. 

If the game is a non-divisional one, these dogs have gone 16-30 SU and 32-13-1 ATS good 71% winning bets since 1990. 

Ravens vs Vikings 
1:00 EST Week 10 
7-Unit bet on the Vikings priced as a 4-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 21-47 SU and 43-24-1 ATS record good for 64% winning bets spanning the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet against a favorite that is facing a foe that the last time they faced them posted 18 or more First Downs.  

If our team has won, no more than 50% of their games have compiled a 26-11-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. 

Patriots vs Bucs 
1 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as a 2.5-point underdog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 32-18 SU (64%) and 36-14 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams. 

Their defense has allowed fewer than 100 yards in four consecutive games. 

One of the simplest constructed systems and one of the most profitable. Bucs offense struggles to run the ball averaging just 98 yards per game and 3.8 YPA. Patriots' defense allowing 76 RYPG and just 3.6 YPA. 

From the Predictive Model: The Patriots are 16-4 (80%) and 14-5-1 ATS (74%) when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and had the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played since 2021. 

Raiders vs Broncos 
8:15 EST, Thursday 
7-unit bet on the Raiders priced as a 9.5-point underdog. 

This betting algorithm has produced a gone 11-11 SU and 17-6 ATS good for 74% winning bets over the past 16 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on teams that failed to win any divisional games in the previous season.  

The current game is against a divisional foe, who they played at home in the last meeting.  

If our dog is priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points, it has seen them go an amazing 6-6 SU and 10-2 ATS good for 83% winning bets. 

Cardinals vs Cowboys 
MNF 8:15 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Cardinals priced as a 3.5-point underdog. 

Pick the winner on MNF and you will win the bet. There have been 12 MNF games this season and the home team is 7-5 and 7-5 ATS. Each game the winner has covered the spread. Since 2021, there have been just two games of 93 played on MNF in which the winner, whether dog or favorite did not cover the spread.  

Live Betting Strategy: I am going to be wagering 5 units preflop on the Cardinals priced at 3.5 points. I will then look for the Cowboys to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. If either occurs, I will add the remaining 2 units on the money line. 

The Betting System and Algorithm 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 25-21 SU and 33-12-2 record good for 73% winning bets. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams. 

The host is coming off a road loss. 

The host has won between 40 and 49% of their games. 

Our road team has won between 25 and 40% of their games. 

If our road team is the underdog, they have gone a highly profitable 21-19-1 SU and 29-10-2 ATS record good for 74.4% winning bets. If our road dog is facing a conference foe, they have gone 17-14 SU and 24-7 ATS good for 77% winning bets since 1989. 

Chiefs vs Bills 
4:25 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Bills priced as a 1.5-point home underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced exceptionally profitable results with a 30-10 SU and a 27-12-1 ATS result for 69% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on a home team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits.  

In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent.  

They are facing a conference foe. 

f the opponent has a 50% or better win percentage, these teams improve to 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS for 78% winning bets.  

Jaguars vs Raiders 
4:05 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Jaguars priced as a 2.5-point favorite. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 29-3 straight-up and 22-8-2ATS for 73% over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road favorites.  

The total is priced at 38 or more points.  

Our favorite is playing with revenge.  

Our favorite’s previous opponent went over their team total by double-digits. 

Saints vs Rams 
4:05 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Saints getting 14 points. 

The following NFL bettig algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 7-18 SU and 17-8 ATS good for 68% winning bets since 2010. The required criteria are: 

Bet on road teams. 

The road teams win percentage is 50 basis points less than the foe’s win percentage. 

They have lost to the spread in each of their past three games. 

The Ram's record is 5-2 for 71% winners. The Saint's record is 1-7 for 12.5% winners. So, 71-12.5=58.5 basis points difference. A basis point is more commonly used from my Wall Street career analyzing the value of a basis point in terms of Treasury, Corporate, and Mortgage-Back Securities to name a few. If the yield on a 10-year Treasury Note declines from 4.10 to 4.00% - it is commonly stated as the yield declined by 10 basis points.  

So, if our teams’ win percentage is 55 or more basis points lower than the opponents win percentage, these monster dogs have gone 6-14 SU and 15-5 ATS good for 75% winning bets. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 36-30 SU and 45-18-3 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets since 2014. The required criteria are: 

Bet on any team that scored three or fewer points in their last game. 

They are playing on 6 days of rest. 

They are facing a non-divisional opponent. 

If they are priced as a 6 or greater underdog, they have gone 7-20 SU and a highly profitable 20-7 ATS good for 74% winning bets. 

Carolina vs Green Bay 
1 EST, Sunday Week 8 
7-unit bet on the Panthers priced as a 13.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 21-48 SU and a 42-24-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs of 2.5 or more points.  

The dog is coming off a loss.  

The dog committed three or more turnovers in their previous loss.  

The dog played UNDER their team total.  

The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points.  

If it is a matchup of conference rivals, these dogs improve to a 16-33 SU and 33-14-2 ATS record for 70.2% winning bets. 

Vikings vs Lions 
1 EST 
5-Unit bet on the Vikings priced as an 8.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 26-43 SU (38%) and 41-28 ATS (59%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe.  

In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards.  

Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game.  

Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points,  

Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 27-46-2 SU and 49-24-2 ASTS record good for 67% winning bets since 2020. The required criteria are:  

Bet on dogs coming off a game they were priced as the dog.  

They are priced as 3 or more-point underdogs.  

They had three or more third-down failures than the opponent in their previous game.  

They gained 400 or fewer yards in that previous game. 

If they were an away dog in that previous game, these live dogs have compiled a highly profitable 18-28-1 SU and 36-9-2 ATS good for 80% winning bets. If they are facing a conference foe, they have compiled an amazing 15-14 SU and 24-5 ATS record good for 82% winning bets. 

Washington vs KC 
8:15 EST, Monday, October 27 
10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 11.5-point underdogs. 

This is one of the biggest contrarian bets in many years identified by my predictive models. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium known to be one of the loudest in North America without your all-pro caliber QB, Jayden Daniels, is hard to get your hands around. However, the fade the public betting flows is one key handicapping analytic that has a bit more weight to it than others. 

LIVE Betting Strategy: One strategic betting plan is to bet 6 units preflop and then look to add 2 more if the Chiefs score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. If that does not happen, then look to add the remaining 4 units at a price of 16.5 points during the first half of action. The downside is that if the Commanders get out to a strong start, the market may not ever get above even double digits. That also implies the bet made is performing well. You can also vary the preflop amount between 5 and 8 units and then add the remaining amount as prescribed. 

Since 2021, there has not been one MNF game in which there was not at least one lead change giving rise to comebacks and increased scoring volatility involving home favorites of 7 or more points. The most common amount of lead changes in these games is between 1 and 3, which involves 18 of 25 games. The most was 11 lead changes in a MNF football game between the Bengals and the Jaguars that was won 34-31 by the Bengals in overtimeon December 4, 2023. The Jaguars were installed as 10-point home favorites and a total of 41 points.  

The Jaguars led 7-0 after the first quarter. The Bengals responded to tie the score at 7 and then Jaguars completed their 2nd quarter scoring leading 14-7. However, the Bengals were not done and scored another TD late in the stanza to make it 14-14. In summary, the teams traded TD in the second half and then late in the 4th, the Bengals kicked a FG to make it 31-28, but with just 26 seconds left, kicker Brandon McManus booted a 48 yarder to send it into OT. Obviously, this would be the perfect storm for our bet on the Commanders tonight. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 25-70 SU (26%) and 61-31-3 ATS for a highly profitable 67% winning bets since 2016 or the past 36 seasons. The required criteria are: 

Bet against home favorites of 7 or more points. 

The home team is on a one or more-game win streak. 

They have won between 51 and 60% of their games. 

The roads team has a losing record. 

If the game is a non-conference matchup, then these dogs have gone an impressive 6-20 SU and 18-7-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets. If the game takes place in prime time, these dogs have gone 5-1 ATS! 

From the Predictive Model: There is a very high probability that the Commanders will gain at least 100 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In this role and priced as a road dog, they have gone an impressive 20-12 SU and 27-6 ATS good for 82% winning bets since 2016, 

Road Underdog ATS Rebound After QB Injury 

System Overview: Bet on road underdogs (+7 or more) starting a backup QB after their starter's injury, focusing on teams with top 10 rushing attacks (to mitigate passing woes). Since 2015, these dogs are 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in primetime, as opponents overreact to the QB change, inflating lines by 2-3 points.  

Application Here: Commanders rank 4th in rushing EPA (+0.15) despite Daniels' absence; Mariota's mobility (94 rushing yards in 3 starts) keeps drives alive. Chiefs' defense allows 4.8 YPC (18th). Washington's 4-1 SU vs. AFC West foes in last 5 adds a significant betting edge. 

Bills vs Panthers 
1:00 EST, Sunday Week 8 
7-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as a 7-point underdog. 

For a more aggressive betting strategy consider a preflop wager of 5 units and 2-units on the money line. Another option is to bet five units preflop and then add the two units using the money line if the Bills score a TD first, take a 6 or more-point lead during the first half of action. 

The following betting algorithm has compiled a 9-21 SU and 22-7-1 ATS record for 76% winning bets. 

Bet on dogs priced between 5.5 and 10.5 points. 

That dog’s defense has been stellar allowing only 90 or fewer rushing yards over their past three games. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 54-97-1 SU (36%) and 97-51-4 ATS good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points.  

The dog is getting outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half of action. 

The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. 

Jets vs Bengals 
1 EST Week 8 
7-Unit bet on the Jets priced as a 6-point underdog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 24-10 SU (71%) and 26-8 ATS good for 77% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams in game with a posted total of 44 or more points. 

They are facing a host that is coming off a win and ATS win. 

That host won their previous game by 6 or fewer points. 

That host completed 30 or more passes in that win. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 54-97-1 SU (36%) and 97-51-4 ATS good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points.  

The dog is getting outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half of action.  

The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. 

Bears vs Ravens 1:00 EST, Week 8, October 26, 2025 
7-Unit bet on the Bears priced as a 6.5-point underdog. 

LIVE Betting Strategy: The model shows a realistic probability that the Bears can win this game. So, consider splitting the bet to 5-units on the spread and 23-units on the money line. Another alternative is bet 5-Units preflop and then look for the Ravens to score the first TD o for them to retake the lead during the first half of action.  

The following betting algorithm has produced a 14-18 SU and 23-8-1 ATS good for 74% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

The home team has forced no more than 1 turnover in each of their past two games. 

Our road dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last 4 games. 

If the host was in the playoffs last year, our road dogs have gone an impressive 10-13 SU and 18-4-1 ATS good for 82% winning bets. 

There have been many bets placed on the Ravens once it was confirmed that Lamar Jackson was back in action. However, after a lengthy layoff, he may struggle to find his rhythm and the chemistry with the receivers. Bears are a much better team than anticipated and my predictive model confirms that getting 6.5 points is excellent value. 

The following betting algorithm has produced a 37-40 SU and 51-22-5 ATS good for 70% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game.  

The opponent forces less than 1 turnover per game. 

Browns vs Patriots 
1:00 EST Week 8 
7-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as a 7.5-point underdog. 

ALGO 1 | The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits.  

In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent.  

If they are facing a conference foe and favored, they have gone 41-11 SU (79%) and 36-16 ATS good for 69% winning bets. 

ALGO #2 | Betting on home teams that wo the turnover battle by at least 1 turnover in each of their past two games and that are facing a foe that committed no turnovers in their previous games has led to a highly profitable 25-6-1 ATS record good for 81% winning bets since 2016.  

ALGO #3 | Betting on home teams that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last three games and facing a foe that forced three or more turnovers in their previous game has led to a highly profitable 51-22 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2016. 

From my predictive model: The Patriots are 13-0 SU and ATS when favored and they have scored 24 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers in games played since 2021. 

Dolphins vs Falcons 
1 EST, Sunday Week 8 
7-unit bet on the Dolphins priced as 7.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 18-35 SU and a 32-18-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points.  

That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers in that loss.  

The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points.  

Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. 

If that dog played UNDER their previous game team points total, they have bounced back well going 11-15 SU and 16-8-2 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. 

Minnesota Vikings vs LA Chargers 
8:20 EST, Thursday | Prime 
7-unit bet on the Vikings priced as a 3.5-point dog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 162-179-1 SU record good for 48% money line bets and has earned a highly profitable 24% ROI since 2006. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs up to and including 6.5 points using the money line. 

The game occurs during the first 8 weeks of the season. 

They are on a 1 to 4-game losing streak. 

The total is between 37.5 and 48.5 points. 

As for ATS record this system has hit 59% ATS since 2001. If the game is a non-conference tilt and the opponent win percentage is 50% or greater on the season has seen these road dogs go 28-34 SU (45% and 39-23 ATS for 64% winning bets since 2001.  

From the predictive model: My model projects that Minnesota will contain the Chargers to 24 or fewer points and that they will have the same or fewer turnovers. Since 2016, the Vikinsg are 29-3 SU and 25-6-1 ATS (81%) when allowing 24 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers in road games 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS (87%) when facing a non-conference foe. 

Texans vs Seahawks 
10:00 EST, Monday 
7-Unit bet on the Texans priced as a 3-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 76-48 SU and 72-45-7 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The required criteria are:  

Bet on road teams that are priced between the 3’s.  

The game is a non-conference matchup.  

The game occurs within the first 9 weeksof the season. 

 If our team was in the playoffs last season, they have compiled a 29-10 SU and 28-10-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2016. If both teams were in last season’s playoffs, our road team has gone 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. 

Bucs vs Lions 
7 EST, Monday 
7-Unit bet on the Bucs +5.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 34-41 SU and a 53-22 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:  

Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points.  

The dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games.  

The opponent is coming off a game committing zero turnovers. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 41-16 SU and a 41-16 ATS result for 72% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are: 

Bet on a team coming off two consecutive games in which they won the turnover battle by 2 or more in each game. 

The opponent forced no turnovers in their previous game. 

If our team is the road team and facing a conference foe who is not a divisional foe, and these teams soar to 9-2 ATS good for 82% winning bets since 2016. 

Falcons vs 49ers 
8:20 EST, Sunday 
5-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as 2.5-point favorite. 

I loaded this play up incorrectly and apologize for this. To confirm,. the play is on the 49ers!

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 34-12SU and 30-16 ATS good for 65% winning bets over the past 35seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams in prime time. 

Non-divisional matchup 

Opponent is coming off a home win priced as the underdog. 

From the Predictive Model: The49ers are 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when scoring 27 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and having two or fewer dropped passes since 2021. The models project a high probability that the 49ers will meet or exceed all three of these projections.  

Commanders vs Cowboys 
4:25 EST Sunday 
7-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 1.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-32 SU (40%) and 35-16-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs of three or fewer points. 

The game occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season. 

The opponent is on a losing streak. 

WR Terry McLaurin and WR Deebo Samuel are both out and my models adjust for these two key players. Cowboys have multiple injuries on both sides of the line of scrimmage and this is where the game will be won – Washington has the advantage on the defensive line and if the Cowboys cannot run the ball effectively, then the offense could be in for a long day. 

From the Predictive Model: Even without two starting WR, the Commanders are projected to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. Over the past five seasons, the Commander srae 10-2 SU and 11-0-1 ATS when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. 

Panthers vs Jets 
1:00 Sunday 
7-unit bet on the Panthers using the money line if –130 or cheaper else lay the 1.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm, has compiled a 86-61 SU and 92-54-1 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The required criteria are:  

Bet on road teams that are priced between the 3’s.  

The game is a non-conference matchup.  

The game occurs within the first 9 weeks of the season.  

If the host was not in the playoffs last season, our road teams have gone 50-28 SU and 47-26-5 ATS good for 65% winning bets. If the host was not in the playoffs the last two seasons, our road teams have gone 35-17 SU and 32-16-4 STS good for 67% winning bets. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 33-9 SU and 31-10-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The required criteria are: 

Bet on a team that saw 50 or coboined points scored in each of their last two games. 

They are facing a team that scored 7 or fewer points in the fiorst half of each of their last two games. 

If the matchup is a non-conference one, then these teams have gone a perfect 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets. 

From the Predictive Model: The Jets are 0-17 SUATS at home when scoring 20 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers in a game spanning the past 5 seasons. The Panthers are 16-6 SU and 18-3-1 ATS when having the same or fewer turnovers and allowing 24 or fewer points in games played over the past five seasons. 

Patriots vs Titans 
1:00 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Titans priced as a 7-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-32 SU (40%) and 35-16-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.  

The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game.  

The dog is outscored by an average of 7 or more points in the first half.  

If our dog is outscored by double-digits in the first half of action they have gone 8-12 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the home dog had two or fewer dropped passes, they improve to an amazing 8-14 SU and 17-4-1 ATS good for 81% winning bets. 

Saints vs Bears 
1:00 EST, Sunday 
7-Unit bet on the Bears priced as a 4.5-point favorite. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 39-9 SU and 33-16 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on a home favorite from week 6 on out. 

The total is fewer than 50 points 

That favorite won the turnover battle in each of their last two games. 

The foe forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game. 

These favorites have gone 11-2 SUATS when coming off two straight games winning the turnover battle by 2 or more. 

If the game is a conference, but a non-divisional matchup, these favorites have gone 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS good for 84.2% winning bets. 

From the Predictive Model: The Bears are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and winning the turnover battle in games played since 2023 (last 3 seasons) 

Commanders vs Bears 
8:15 EST, Monday 
7-Unit bet on the Chicago Bears priced as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 29-44 SU (40%) and a 51-21-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2015. The requirement are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. 

They are facing a conference foe. 

The total is 50 or fewer points. 

That dog is allowing 28 or more PPG. 

If the game takes place in primetime (Thursday, Sunday, or Monday Nights), these dogs have gone 6-8 SU and 10-4 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets.  

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 55-95 (37%) and 96-51-4 ATS good for 65% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on teams that are allowing 28 or ore PPG.  

They are priced as road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points.  

If the total is between 42.5 and 55 points, these dogs have gone 82-41-4 ATS good for 67% winning bets. 

The Chicago Bears (2-2) invade Northwest Stadium for Monday Night Football against the Washington Commanders (3-2), kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. Oddsmakers peg Washington as 5.5-point favorites (O/U 50), but advanced metrics scream value on the underdog Bears covering—and potentially stealing a 24-20 thriller. Chicago's rested off a bye, while Washington limps in after a grueling slate, including a Week 5 squeaker over the Chargers. The Bears' defense ranks top 10 in DVOA (8th overall, per FTN), stifling opponents to 19.2 PPG allowed—primed to harass rookie Jayden Daniels, who's turned it over five times in losses. Washington's secondary? Dead last in EPA/drop back (-0.12) and 27th in PFF coverage grade, vulnerable to Caleb Williams' arm. Offensively, Williams boasts a 68.4% completion rate post-Week 2, ranking 5th in adjusted EPA/play (+0.18) among QBs—exploiting Commanders' 31st-ranked pass success rate. D'Andre Swift adds ground balance (3.3 YPC vs. weak fronts), and Chicago's red-zone efficiency (62% TDs) trumps Washington's turnover-prone attack. ESPN's FPI gives Washington just 65.7% odds, implying a 35% upset shot for Chicago—far from a lock, especially with Bears 2-0 ATS as road dogs. Dimers sims project a tight 27-22 Commanders edge, but Bears cover in 48% of runs, factoring regression for Washington's 40% over rate. Public's 62% on Washington inflates the line—grab +5.5 before it tightens. 

Top 3 Player Prop Bets (Based on Bears Win Scenario from my Model 

Caleb Williams Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-110): In an upset, Williams exploits Washington's leaky secondary (105.0 opponent QB rating); he's cleared 250+ in two straight games. 

DJ Moore Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Moore thrives in comebacks (173 yards YTD), feasting on Commanders' 29th EPA vs. WRs; expect 80+ in Bears' air raid.  

Tremaine Edmunds Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-120): Bears LB leads with 40 tackles; in a win, he stuffs Washington's run (4.0 TFL), hitting double-digits vs. mobile QBs. 

49ers vs Bucs 
4:25 EST 
7-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as a 3.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-32 SU record and a 41-19-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are:  

Bet on any team that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters.  

That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog.  

The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games.  

If our dog is coming off an upset win, they have gone a highly profitable 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS good for 91% winning bets. 

Why the 49ers Will Pull Off the Road Upset vs. the BucsIn a marquee NFC clash at Raymond James Stadium today (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), the banged-up San Francisco 49ers (4-1) hit the road as 3.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1), with a total of 47.5. Despite the Bucs' home cooking and Baker Mayfield's hot streak (1,283 yards, 10 TDs), the Niners' superior scheme, depth, and analytics edge make them primed for a gritty 24-20 victory—covering and snapping Tampa's divisional dominance. 

First, San Francisco's offense thrives in adversity. Kyle Shanahan's system ranks No. 1 in passing yards (290.6 per game) and top-five in efficiency metrics like third-down conversion (45%) and sack avoidance (under 5%). Mac Jones, starting for the injured Brock Purdy (toe, DNP Wednesday), has been lights-out: 86/129 for 905 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT in three starts, fitting Shanahan's quick-release mold like a glove. Christian McCaffrey (rested midweek) remains a dual-threat monster, racking up 430+ scrimmage yards despite the chaos. Wideouts like Kendrick Bourne (career-high 142 yards last week) and Demarcus Robinson step up amid absences (Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall DNP; Brandon Aiyuk PUP, George Kittle IR). The Niners average 28.4 points per game shorthanded—undefeated on the road (3-0 SU/ATS). 

Tampa's vulnerabilities scream value. Their defense, 18th in DVOA, ranks 31st in pass success rate and 29th in EPA per drop back, allowing a 105.0 opponent passer rating and 16 deep shots (20+ yards). Injuries compound this: Top CBs Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum out (knee/hamstring), backups questionable, leaving Mayfield exposed (sacked 12 times, INTs mounting). Offensively, no Mike Evans (hamstring, multi-week), Chris Godwin (fibula, out), or Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder, sidelined) cripples their attack—rookie Emeka Egbuka's emergence (163 yards last week) can't mask the void, dropping them to 18.2 PPG without that trio. Analytics back the dog: ESPN FPI gives SF a 42.3% outright win probability (implied +136 ML value), while models like SportsLine project a one-score Niners upset in 52% of sims. Shanahan is 18-13 ATS as a road dog since 2017, and SF's won four of five vs. TB (outscoring them by 40 points net). Fred Warner (50 tackles, top-4 NFL) and a top-10 DVOA unit (sixth-fewest points allowed) will force turnovers from a hobbled Mayfield. 

Titans vs Raiders 
4:05 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Titans priced as a 4.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-42 SU and 48-20-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past 11 seasons. The requirement are: 

Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. 

They are facing a conference foe. 

The total is fewer than 50 points. 

Our dog has allowed 28 or more PPG. 

If our dog is coming off a win, they have gone 5-7 SU and 9-3 ASTS good for 75% winning bets. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 10-3 SU (77%) and a near-perfect 13-1 ATS good for 93% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road teams facing a conference foe.  

That foe lost their previous game by 28 or more points.  

That is foe is priced between pick-em and a 6.5-point favorite.  

The total is 46 or fewer points. 

Ward's heroics last week—265 yards, game-winning drive in the final 11 minutes—signal growth for the No. 1 pick, who's completed 52% of passes for 879 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs while sacked 19 times. Momentum matters: Tennessee's 2-1 ATS on the road, including covers in losses, vs. Raiders' 0-3 ATS at home. RB Tony Pollard (328 rush yards, 2 TDs, 4.0 YPC) grinds against a Raiders rush D ranked 20th (120 YPG allowed), while Jeffery Simmons (elite pass-rusher) pressures a line that's surrendered 16 sacks. 

Las Vegas? A dumpster fire. Geno Smith's 9 INTs (league-worst) and 16 sacks have fueled a 16 PPG offense (30th-ranked), capped by a 40-6 drubbing in Indy where they scored 6. TE Brock Bowers (knee) is out, gutting their top target; rookie RB Ashton Jeanty (349 yards, 8th NFL) can't carry the team alone against a Titan’'s 30th-ranked rush D (149 YPG allowed) but opportunistic secondary (T-10th takeaways).  

Cardinals vs Colts 
1:00 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Cardinals priced as a 10-point dog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 21-34 SU and a 34-18-3 ATS result for 65.4% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points.  

That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers.  

The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points.  

Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. 

Advanced analytics tilt the script. Cardinals boast the NFL's No. 4 scoring defense (19.2 PPG allowed) and No. 2 rush D (3.9 YPC), which is ideal vs. Indy's Jonathan Taylor-led ground attack (sans RB Tyler Goodson, groin out). In DVOA (Week 5), Arizona's defense ranks 8th (-8.9%), outpacing Indy's 5th (-11.6%) when adjusted for opponent strength; they've forced 9 turnovers (T-6th) while allowing just 5.0 yards/play (7th). EPA/play, Cards +0.12 on defense (top-10), per PFF, feasting on Anthony Richardson's 2.1% turnover rate (league-high for QBs). Three straight Cardinals losses by 5 total points? Outgained foes by 0.6 YPP in Week 5—pure bad luck (80% PGWE vs. Titans). Colts' 4-1 ATS masks regression: 3-0 home wins by 7 points avg., public 68% on Indy inflates the line. Arizona's havoc (T-4th sacks) disrupts Richardson's deep shots. Gannon's unit grinds clocks, Conner pounds, and opportunistic picks seal it. +9.5 is gift-wrap value. 

Chiefs vs Jaguars 
8:20 EST, MNF 
7-Unit bet on the Jaguars priced as 3 point underdogs. 

Betting on a home dog facing the loser in the previous Super Bowl, in a non-divisional matchup have gone 30-42 SU (42%) and 41-28-3 ATS (60%) winning bets since 2002.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 27-46-2 SU and 49-24-2 ASTS record good for 67% winning bets since 2020. The required criteria are: 

Bet on dogs coming off a game they were priced as the dog. 

They are priced as 3 or more-point underdogs. 

They had three or more third-down failures than the opponent in their previous game. 

They gained 400 or fewer yards in that previous game. 

If they were an away dog in that previous game, these live dogs have compiled a highly profitable 16-27-1 SU and 34-8-2 ATS good for 81% winning bets. If they are facing a conference foe, they have compiled an amazing 14-14 SU and 23-5 ATS record good for 82% winning bets. 

Bet on home teams from the East Coast time zone in a MNG matchup, taking on a foe not from the EST zone and coming off a win of between 11 and 17 points has compiled a 12-5 SU record and 13-4 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets since 1989. Rare, but has a very strong p-value correlation to the parameters used in this query.  

Patriots vs Bills 
8:20 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as a 8.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with an 23-26 SU, 33-15-1 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs facing a conference foe. 

The host has posted a 1.75 yards per pass play differential. 

The host has averaged 7 or more yards per pass in each of their last two games. 

Our dog is coming off a game with 5 or more dropped passes. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 32-16 SU and 33-15 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 1998. The requirements are: 

Bet on a road team that scored 7 or more points in each quarter of their previous game. 

Facing a divisional host. 

The total is 47.5 or more points. 

The game occurs after week 4 

Titans vs Cardinals 
4:05 EST, October 5 
7-Unit bet on the Titans priced as a 7.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled an outstanding 42-47 SU (47%) and 59-29-2 ATS record (67%) since 2016. The required criteria are: 

Bet on winless roads teams. 

The game occurs between weeks 3 and 6 of the regular season. 

If the game is a non-conference matchup, these dogs have gone an amazing 18-11-1 SU (62%) and 21-7-1 ATS good for 75% winning bets since 2016.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 33-40-1 SU (45%) and 49-21-4 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are:  

Play on road teams that are winless on the season.  

The game occurs between weeks 3 and 10.  

The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog.  

If the total is priced between 37.5 and 45 points, these dogs have been great investments compiling an 18-27 SU and 32-13-4 ATS record for 71% winning bets. 

Bucs vs Seahawks 
4:05 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Bucs priced as a 3.5-point underdog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 14-25 (36%) and 26-12-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs priced at 3.5 or more points.  

The dog is allowing a poor 64% completion percentage.  

The defense did hold their previous opponent to 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt.  

The game occurs from Week 4 on out. 

If the game occurs from week 5 on out, this system has compiled a 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. 

Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 18-25 SU and 34-9 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018.  

From the Predictive Models: My model project that Tampa’s defense will contain the Seattle offense to 20 or fewer points and 100 or fewer rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. Under Todd Bowles, the Bucs are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when meeting these projections; 8-1 SU and 8-2 ATS when having the same ro fewer turnovers and containing a foe to 20 or fewer points. 

Advanced Analytics & Rankings 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–1) 

Defensive Efficiency: 8th in NFL in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) 

Points Allowed: 11th in NFL (20.8 PPG) 

Red Zone Defense: Top 5 — allowing TDs on just 42% of opponent trips 

Turnover Margin: +5 — 3rd-best in NFL 

Seattle Seahawks (3–1) 

Scoring Offense: 6th in NFL (27.8 PPG) 

Yards per Play: 3rd in NFL (6.4 YPP) 

Defensive Points Allowed: 2nd in NFL (16.3 PPG) 

QB Sam Darnold: 70% completion rate, but just 6.8 YPA — reliant on short throws 

Raiders vs Colts 
1:00 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Raiders priced as a 7-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with an 60-71 SU and 78-50-3 ATS good for 61% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs. 

Firs 8 weeks of the season. 

The opponent is coming off a road loss. 

If a non-divisional matchup, these dogs have gone 50-40 SU and 59-29-2 ATS good for 67% winning bets. 

San Francisco vs LA Rams 
8:15 EST, Thursday 
7-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as an 8.5-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points.  

That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers.  

The total is priced between 40.5 and 50 points.  

Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game.  

Our dog went UNDER their previous team total by three or more points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 27-10 SU and 28-9 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 1990. The required situations are:

ü  Bet on road underdogs from pick to3.5 points.

ü  They allowed 7.5 or more yards per pass play in their previous game.

ü  The opponent has allowed 7.5 o more yards per pass play in each of their two previous games.

ü  The total is 45 or fewer points.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 13-27 SU and a 29-10-1 ATS result for 74% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10.5 points.

ü  That dog has allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards in each of their last three games.

If our dog is priced between 7 and 10.5 points they have gone 4-12 SU, but a very impressive 12-3-1 ATS good for 80% winning bets. 

The Browns failed to score for the first three quarters but then scored 13 in the fourth quarter to steal a huge 13-10 win over a very good Packers team. They were 7.5-point underdogs ion that upset win so that winning confidence is expected to spillover to this road tilt against another NFC North Division foe.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 31-26 SU and a 38-16-3 ATS result for 70% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on a team playing on short rest.

ü  That ream scored three or fewer points in their previous game.

ü  They are facing a non-divisional foe.

The Eagles got a highly unlikely win last week after being dominated for most of the game. They needed two blocked field goals attempts and the last one came on the last play of the game when it surely looked like the Rams were going to convert and walk-off with a win. The result of the Eagles not being ‘smart’ and just falling on the ball knowing they had a 1-point lead and running it in for a touchdown, cause us to lose the bet on the Rams priced as a 3.5-point underdog. 

This game sees the Eagles being overvalued in the market based on the recency bias and the fact that they are 3-0 and the reigning Super Bowl Champions. However, teams that trailed at the half by double-digits and then came back to win the game playing at home have gone then gone a miserable 34-54-1 SU (30%) and just 24-53-1 ATS for 31.2% winning tickets since 2011. If these teams are road favorites on their next game, they have gone a terrible 5-8 SU and 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2011.

Here is a second situational betting algorithm that has gone 50-18 SU and 49-19-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on any team facing a foe that trailed by double-digits at the half. 

ü  The opponent did come back and win that home game. 

If our team has won 75% of more of their games, they have gone on to an impressive 29-2-1 SU record and a 26-5-1 ATS record good for 84% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are:

ü  Play on road teams that are winless on the season. 

ü  The road team is coming off a double-digit loss

ü  The game occurs between weeks 3 and 10. 

ü  The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog.

If the total is priced between 37.5 and 45 points, these dogs have been great investments compiling an 18-27 SU and 32-13-4 ATS record for 71% winning bets.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 37-39-1 SU (48%) and 51-21-5 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

ü  Bet on underdogs.

ü  The opponent is coming off a game in which they committed three or more turnovers.

ü  The opponent’s defense is forcing fewer than one turnovers per game.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 16-15 SU (52%) and 21-8-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system is on an incredible 9-2 SU and 10-0-1-win streak and if priced as a road dog 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS. The requirements are:

ü  Bet on road teams in weeks 2 through 5.

ü  They are taking on a division rival.

ü  They are coming off a divisional game.

ü  They lost to the spread by 13 or more points in their previous game.

ü   

When a team creates turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) and limits its own mistakes, it gains more opportunities to possess the football. This can lead to more scoring chances and keeps the opposing offense off the field.

My predictive models project that the Titans will have the same or fewer turnovers. IN past games played, the Titans are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS when priced as a 4.5 or more-point underdog and have the same or fewer turnovers.

Live Betting Strategy: With a total priced at 53.5 points scoring may be quite volatile and with several lead changes. So, consider betting 7-units preflop on the Ravens and then if the Lions score a TD first or retake the lead at any point during the first half, add the remaining 3 units on the Ravens. As the following betting systems reveal, there is ahigh probability that the Ravens win and cover this game easily, so any price approaching pick-em on the Ravens provides great value.

The NFL and CFB seasons have gotten off to another great start, but it is imperative not to reach for a bigger win, then normal. Not every 10-UNIT MAX Bert of the Month wins, of course, and the majority do win over the course of the season. If you are betting $100 per unit then keep that discipline in place and bet $1,000 on any 10-Unit. If you are betting $10 per unit then your 10-UNIT bet is $100. This is 30 years of pro betting experience talking and I LOVE this bet tonight, but I will not throw caution to the wind and bet over my head ever. So, as I end all my videos and show appearances “Bet with your Head and never over it and may all the wins be yours”.

Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 42-16-2 ATS record good for 72.4% winning bets since 2009.

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 104-33 SU (76%) and 87-49-1 ATS record good for 64% winning bets since 2001. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on home teams that are coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe.

ü  They were in the playoffs last season.

ü  The total is between 45 and 54.5 points.

If the opponent is coming off an ATS win, our home teams have gone 51-18 SU (74%) and 45-23-1 ATS good for 66.2% winning bets since 2001. If the opponent scored 35 or more points in their previous game, our home teams have compiled a 17-6 SU (74%) and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2001.

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 25-5 SU (83%) and 22-7-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2001. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

ü  They are coming off a win over a divisional foe.

ü  The game occurs in the first three weeks of the season.

ü  Both teams had winning record in the previous season.

If our favorite is playing at home has seen them compile a very profitable 22-2 SU (92%) and 20-3-1 ATS for 87% winning bets. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 42-11 SU (79%) and 38-15  ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 1991. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on home teams in September that are coming off a win over a divisional foe.

ü  They won four of their last five games in the previous season.

From the Predictive Models: Given the market pricing of the Ravens favored by 4.5 points and the total of 53.5 points implies a 29-24.5 Ravens win. The key for this game is that the Ravens score 28 or more points. Under head coach John Harbaugh, who has been coaching the Ravens since 2008, has seen them compile a 95-12-1 SU (89%) and 85-20-13 ATS record good for 81% winning bets. 

My predictive model projects that the Ravens will score at least 28 points and rush for 100 or more yards tonight. The Ravens are 50-6 SU (89%) and 43-10-3 ATS (81%) under coach Harbaugh when meeting these projections.

The Lions scored 52 points in their route of the Bears and are prone to regression facing a super bowl-ready team like the Ravens. In fact, road underdogs that scored 52 or more points in their previous game have averaged only 22.5 points while allowing 29.1 points in the following game.

The Lions defensive secondary is subject to Lamar Jackson’s arial attack as they rank just 20th in the NFL in drop back EPA. Jackson’s reads will be based on the where the safeties are on the field pre-snap and in play action pass plays, the running backs will be responsible for picking up the safety blitz. If the safety is not blitzing, the will look to help out on the edge and become a relief valve in the flat. If the safeties are forced to play near the line of scrimmage to defend the run, then that really opens great opportunities for chunk plays using vertical and crossing routes in man coverage.

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 5 units preflop and the look to add the remaining two units if the Chiefs score a TD first. If the first score is a FG by the Chiefs add the 2 units using the money line. 

The following betting algorithm has compiled a 28-8 ATS record since 1983. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

ü  They were a terrible defensive team that allowed an average of 335 or more YPG.

ü  They are coming off a game in which they allowed 450 or more totals.

ü  The game occurs in the first three weeks of the season.

Since 2006, this system has gone 9-11 SU and 16-4 ATS good for 80% winning bets.

The favorite in week three games featuring winless teams have gone 26-20 SU, but a terrible 19-28 ATS for 60% winning bets since 1989.

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 4-units preflop on the Rams getting the 4.5 points. If the Eagles score a TD first or take a 6-point or more lead during the first half of action, bet the Rams for a 1-Unit amount getting approx. 8.5 or more points or the money line.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 26-49 SU and 49-25-2 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2015. This system has been profitable in every season. The required criteria are: 

ü  Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

ü  The game occurs in the first three weeks of the regular season. 

ü  Our dog had a terrible defense allowing 5.7 or more yards per play in their previous season. 

If our road team was in the playoffs last season, they improve to 10-7 SU and 12-4-1 ATS good for 75% winning bets. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 20-43 SU and a 39-21-3 ATS result for 65% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs of 2.5 or more points. The dog is coming off a loss. The dog committed three or more turnovers in their previous loss. The dog played UNDER their team total. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. If it is a matchup of conference rivals, these dogs improve to a 16-33 SU and 33-14-2 ATS record for 70.2% winning bets.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 19-35 SU and a 38-16-2 ATS result for 70.4% winning bets since 2020. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on underdogs.

ü  The dog gained fewer than 400 total yards in their previous game.

ü  They had at least three ore third-down failures then their previous opponent.

If our underdog is playing at home and priced as a 5 or more-point underdog, has seen them, go 10-1-1 ATS good for 91% winning bets.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 12-52 SU and 41-21-2 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 1991 or 35 seasons of action. The required criteria are: 

ü  Bet on a double-digit underdog.

ü  The game is a matchup of divisional rivals.

ü  The dog has lost the last 6 meetings to this divisional foe.

The NFL's Week 3 slate kicks off with a primetime AFC East clash under the lights at Highmark Stadium, where the undefeated Buffalo Bills (2-0) host the reeling Miami Dolphins (0-2). Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with Buffalo installed as massive 12.5-point favorites and a total of 49.5 points. The Bills, riding high after blowout wins over the Cardinals and Titans, boast the league's top-ranked efficiency metrics: a +28% offensive DVOA (second overall), -21% defensive DVOA (third), and +0.23 EPA per play (second). Josh Allen's MVP-caliber play—300+ yards and multiple scores in both outings—has Buffalo averaging 35 points per game, fueling their status as the AFC's hottest team.

Yet, for bettors eyeing value, the Dolphins +12.5 screams opportunity. Miami's start has been rocky, with losses to the Jaguars and Bills (wait, no—Bills are this week), but advanced analytics reveal a squad punching above its 0-2 weight. The Fins rank 18th in Net Yards per Play at -0.2, a deceptive mark that belies their explosive potential. Critically, Miami's ground attack is elite: fourth in Rush EPA, ninth in success rate, and averaging 5.1 yards per carry (fourth-best). This exploits Buffalo's glaring Achilles' heel—the Bills' run defense has surrendered a league-worst 6.8 yards per carry through two games, yielding three rushing TDs already. De'Von Achane, Miami's dynamic back, has 85 rushing yards on 18 carries and a receiving score in each contest; his anytime TD prop at +125 looks juicy against a Buffalo front that's vulnerable to speed.

Historically, these divisional tilts rarely balloon into routs. Buffalo has won six straight over Miami, including a 30-27 thriller last November, with an average margin of victory under 10 points in the last four meetings. The Bills are 12-1 versus the Dolphins since 2020, but Miami has covered in three of the last five, keeping games competitive despite talent gaps.

Tua Tagovailoa, fresh off 300+ yard games, will lean on Tyreek Hill (projected 90+ receiving yards) to stretch Buffalo's secondary, while Achane feasts on the edges. The Bills roll to 3-0, but expect a gritty Dolphins effort—final score projection: Buffalo 28, Miami 20. That's a cover for the Fins, and a sharp play at +12.5. Fade the hype; back the bounce-back.

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 44-22 SU and 41-23-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets since 2005 or 21 seasons. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on the home team in a MNF game.

ü  The home team is undefeated.

ü  The game occurs in the first six weeks of the season.

If the game is a divisional showdown, our home teams have responded well posting a 14-10 SU and 17-7 ATS record good for 71% winning bets.

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 10-10-1 SU and 16-5 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2010 or 16 seasons. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on teams that failed to win any divisional games in the previous season. 

ü  The current game is against a divisional foe, who they played at home in the last meeting.

ü  The game occurs in the first third of the season or first 6 weeks.

The following NFL betting algorithm, has compiled a 86-61 SU and 92-54-1 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on road teams that are priced between the 3’s.

ü  The game is a non-conference matchup.

ü  The game occurs within the first 9 weeks of the season.

If our team was in the playoffs last season, they have compiled a 44-25 SU and 45-22-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2016. If both teams were in last season’s playoffs, our road team has gone 20-11 SU and 21-10 ATS for 68% winning bets.

From the predictive models: My self-developed predictive models project that the Bucs defense will contain the Texans offense to 23 or fewer points and will pass for at least 250 yards. Over the past 10 seasons, the Bucs are 18-3 SU (86%) and 16-5 ATS for 71.4%  in road tilts. 

Given the fact that 0-2 teams have a 10% chance of making the playoffs, the Chiefs are desperate to get out of the gate fast. So, consider betting 5-Units preflop and then look to add 2-units if the Chiefs score a TD first ro retake the lead during the first half of action. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 26-9 (74%) and 21-13-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets record since 2006. The required criteria:

·      Bet on the reigning SB Champion.

·      Non-conference matchup.

·      The opponent lost to our team in the previous meeting.

·      The opponent is coming off a loss.

If the game takers place in the first nine weeks, our teams have gone 17-4 SU (81%) and 14-7 ATS good for 67% winning bets. 

The Eagles used their depth and physicality to dominate the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and fully expect this these to be quite evident in this marquee game. AJ Brown was targeted just once, but that was because the defensive coverage was focused on him. If the Chiefs elect to take Brown out fo the game, then Hurts has simple reads pre snap simply by looking at where the safeties are lined up. If they are back from the LOS to defense the pass, then Saquon gets the ball. If they are near the LOS, then look for play action pass plays to any of the Eagle receivers that will be in man coverage. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 21-32 SU and a 33-17-3 ATS result for 66% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. 

ü  That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers. 

ü  The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. 

ü  Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-35 SU and 48-18-5 ATS good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on dogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game. 

ü  The opponent forces less than 1 turnover per game.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 17-21-1 SU and 30-8-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2016 or the past 10 seasons. This system has been profitable in each of the past 10 seasons making it one to track and bet in week 4 and future seasons. The required criteria are: 

ü  Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points.

ü  The game occurs in the first four weeks of the regular season. 

ü  Our dog had a terrible defense allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous season.

If the total is more than 45 points, these teams have gone 12-11-1 SU and 20-3-1 SATS for a jaw-dropping 87% winning bets.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 50-18-6 ATS (74%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are:

ü  Bet on underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season. 

ü  The favorite won their last two games of the previous season 

ü  The favorite failed to make the playoffs last season.

If the game occurs in the first four weeks of the season, our dogs have gone 12-9 SU and 16-5 ATS good for 77% winning bets.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 26-44 SU and a 46-24-2 ATS result for 66% winning bets since 2020. The requirements are: 

ü  Bet on dogs of 3 or more points.

ü  They were a dog in their previous game.

ü  They gained less than 400 yards in their previous game.

ü  They had three or more third down failures than the previous opponent.

Here we are in Week 1and it is the Monday Night Football showdown between the divisional rival Vikings and the Chicago Bears taking place at Soldier Field. The Bears’ QB Caleb Williams looked very good in preseason games, but granted the speed of the game is not anywhere close to what the speed of the regular season is for every team.

Betting against MNF favorites in week 1 has been a tried-and-true betting angle for many seasons and has compiled a 22-27 SU (45%) and a 31-16-2 ATS for 66% winning bets. If the game has a total priced at 40 or more points has seen these underdogs compile an excellent 18-23 SU (44%) and a 27-12-2 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 1989. 

On MNF, Divisional underdogs in week 1, have gone 9-12 SU and 14-7 ATS since 1989. Home teams priced between a 2.5-point favorite and a 2.5-point underdog and hosting a divisional foe have gone 6-1 SUATS for 86% winning bets. Home dogs in week 1 playing on MNF and failed to make the playoffs in their previous season have gone an impressive 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets since 1989. Drilling deeper, if the dog lost both games to the divisional foe in the previous season as seen them compile a 12-4 ATS record good for 75% winning bets.

From my Predictive Models: The markets are projecting a 22.50-21 Vikings win given the 1.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total. My models expect the Bears to have an 87% probability that they will score 21 or more points. Since 1989, the Bears are 104-40 SU and 96-41-7 when playing at home and scoring 21 or more points. 

The Bears are projected to gain 100 or more rushing yards (90% probability). In past home games priced as an underdog and pick-em since 1989, the Bears have compiled a highly profitable 18-15 SU (55%) and 22-9-2 ATS record good for 71% winning tickets. The Bears are 19-12 SU (61%) and 24-6-1 ATS for 80% winning bets since 1989 when scoring 21 or more points, gaining 100 or more rushing yards and playing with revenge from a previous season loss.

My models also project an 85% probability that the Vikings will not score more than 21 points in this game. Since 1989, the Vikings are 28-70 SU (29%) and 25-73 ATS good for a horrid 26% winning bets when scoring fewer than 21 points in a road game. Over the past five seasons, the Vikings are just 8-15 SU and 6-17-1 ATS for 23% winning bets when scoring 21 or fewer points.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 60-20 SU record and a 50-27-3 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: 

ü  Bet on teams that won 9 or more games in the previous season.

ü  It is week 1.

ü  Our team is a home favorite of not more than 4.5 points.

If our home favorite is taking on a divisional foe, they soar to a highly profitable 25-7 SU (78%) and 24-8 ATS for 75% winning record since 1990.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 9-28 SU and 25-12 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: 

ü  Bet on dogs of 8 or more points in week 1.

ü  Our team failed to make the playoffs in their past two seasons.

ü  They are not facing a divisional foe.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 43-31-1 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on home dogs in week 1.

ü  They are taking on a divisional foe.

ü  The home dog failed to make the playoffs in their previous season.

If the opponent was in the playoffs in the previous season, these dogs explode to a 12-10-1 SU record and 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Chiefs vs Chargers
Sao Paulo, Brazil | Arena Corinthians
8:00 EST, September 5, 2025 | YouTube
7-Unit bet on the Chargers priced as a 3-point underdog.

The Super Bowl loser has had a severe long-lasting hangover entering week 1 action, going just 11-12 SU and 6-17 ATS for 26% winning tickets since 20002. However, the last two losers won and covered their week 1 assignment with the 49ers defeating the Jets 32-19 at Levi Stadium and the Eagles defeating the Patriots at Foxborough 25-20 as 3.5-point favorites. The last two seasons does not mean the trend has lost it’s highly profitable profile and is just one trend that backs the Chargers in Brazil. Note, that this will be the first time a super bowl loser is playing out of the country at a neutral setting. In fact this is only the second game where a game is taking place in week 1 at a neutral stadium.

For Live Betting action, consider betting 5-Units preflop getting the 3 points and then look to add no more than a 2-unit bet on the money line if the Chiefs score first or retake the lead in first half action. 

Live Betting Strategy: The Cowboys are rid of the toxic situation in the locker-room surrounding Parsons. The tension and distraction were not Parson’s fault either, in my opinion. The fact is that the storm has ended, and Parsons is out of Dallas and now a Packer. 

The following NFL betting query has compiled a highly profitable 24-11 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2016. They have gone just 10-24-1 SU (29%) so this presents an intriguing betting strategy. If Dallas scores first or retakes the lead at any point during the first half, look to get the Eagles as a buyback of the Cowboys preflop bet as close to pick-em using the money line. This line has the potential to reach 8.5 points, which would be great to get, giving us a huge range of 7 points for the Eagles to win the game but not cover. 

The required situational criteria are:

ü  Bet on dogs of 6.5 or more points.

ü  The game occurs in week 1.

If the dog failed to make the playoffs in their previous season, they have compiled a 6-20-1 SU but19-8 ATS record good for 70.4% winning bets since 2016. 

The Eagles first unit did not have any time together during the preseason and the rust could show early. On defense, I will be watching the left cornerback Adoree Jackson and safety Sydney Brown as they are new acquisitions. With one of the best CB in the NFL in Quinyon Mitchell, Dak Prescott will be looking away from any matchups involving him and attack the Eagles defense elsewhere. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles 
SUPER BOWL LIX 
10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as a 1.5-point underdog. I suggest taking the 1.5 points paying –110 vig and not the money line, which is around +105. We are getting points and paying 15 points more vig for them. Obviously, the analytics show that the Eagles will win this game by 6 or more points. However, what if the model is not quite right and Patrick scores a TD in waning seconds and the Chiefs win 28-27? 

Live Betting Strategy: As the grid below shows, the first quarter on average is the lowest scoring one of the four quarters. Scoring increases significantly in the second quarter. So, if this game starts out slowly, look to bet a few units (optional) at 44.5 points. 

I recommend betting 7-Units preflop on the Eagles and then look to add 3-Units if the Chiefs score the first TD to go up 10-0,10-3, or 7-3, 7-0, or 7-6 if the Eagles kick two field goals and the 6 points is not the result of a missed extra point. The danger here is that this never happens during the first half of action which would leave you with only a 7-unit bet but implies the Eagles would be winning the game. If you want more units bet preflop then adjust the remaining bets accordingly.  

Since 2000, there have been an average of 3.70 lead changes in the Super Bowl. For the favorites, their largest lead has averaged 7.56 points while the respective underdogs have enjoyed a biggest lead averaging 11.26 points. During this span of 24 Super Bowls, the favorites has averaged a loss by 3.22 points. This means that we want to get on the Eagles after any Chiefs score, especially focused on Chief Touchdowns during the first half. 

In Super Bowl 57: 

Chiefs 

Patrick Mahomes went 21/27/182/3/0, 6-44 

KC ran the ball 26 times and passed 27. 

Isiah Pacheco 15-76-TD, Jerick McKinnon 4-34, 3/15 

Travis Kelce 6/81/TD (6) 

JuJu Smith-Schuster 7/53 (9) 

All other pass catchers combined for 5/33 

Eagles 

Eagles threw 38 passes to 32 rush attempts 

Jalen Hurts 27/38/304/1/0, 15-70-3 TDs 

Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott: 17-40, 5/29 (6) 

A.J. Brown 6/96/TD (8) 

DeVonta Smith 7/100 (9) 

Dallas Goedert 6/60 (7) 

All other pass catchers 3/19 

Important note regarding Super Bowl 57. In my opinion, one of the reasons the Eagles had a great passing attack was due to the ‘ineligible man downfield’ penalties not being called that year. Since then, the league placed emphasis on calling that penalty. Why was it a ‘cheat code’ for the Eagles? Their elite offensive line was able to send players to the second level of the defense on RPO (read/pass options). When those plays were called, defenses were at a massive advantage, and Jalen Hurts had very easy options that led the team to consistently picking up big chunks of yardage. Can we say that every team had that advantage? Maybe. But the combination of the elite (and very athletic) offensive line, Hurts and the great wide receivers were a trio that specifically had the maximum advantage and leveraged that advantage frequently. Since the league began enforcing that penalty, the Eagles no longer have that advantage. 

From my Predictive model:The Eagles will pound the ball and then pound the ball again. This simple fact will steadily wear down the Chiefs defense, who has not faced an offensive line as great as the Eagles – even with the OL not all at even 90% due to nagging injuries. The two weeks off has been gold for this unit and a much greater benefit then for the Chiefs. So, the Eagles are projected to gain at least 165 rushing yards, have a 2 or more-minute edge in time of possession and have the same or fewer turnovers, and score 25 or more points.  

So, in last Super Bowls in which a team gained over 150 rushing yards saw them go 6-2 SUATS. In all playoff games, teams that have gained 150 or more rushing yards have gone 180-60-2 (76%) and 174-71-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. If the team gaining175 or more rushing yards has seen them produce a 114-24 SU (83%), and 106-31-2 ATS record good for 77% winning bets.  

In the playoffs, teams that have scored 25 or more points and gained 150 rushing yards have gone an impressive 134-13 SU (91%) and 123-24-1 ATS good for 84% winning bets; 4-1 SUATS in Super Bowls. Dogs that have scored 25 or more points have gone 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS (83%) in Super Bowls. 

Dogs that had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS in the Super Bowls. If our dog scored 25 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers has seen them go 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. 

Teams that had an edge in time-of-possession, the same or fewer turnovers, and scored 215 or more points are 10-0 DSU and 8-2 ATS and if a dog have produced an incredible 6-0 SUATS record. Dogs that gained 100 rushing yards, had an edge in time-of-possession, and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 5-1 SUATS. 

Teams that scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 13-3 SU (81%) and 12-4 SATS for 75% winners. If these teams were priced as the dog, has seen them bark loudly and angrily with an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record for 90% winning bets. 

Under head coach Sirianni, his Eagles are 30-3 SU and 24-8-1 ATS when they have scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers. When his teams met this pair of performance measures, and they gained 125 or more rushing yards has seen them go 25-1 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winners; when gaining 150 or more rushing yards, they have gone 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets.  

Andy Reid as the head coach of the Chiefs is just 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when allowing 25 or more points, having the same or turnovers, and allowing 125 or rushing yards. 

I have a whole lot more research on this game but chose not to be overwhelming. If however, you want to see the details of the rest of the research, simply send me a message to johnryansportsgmail or find me on the X. 

AFC Championship Game Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 
8-Unit bet on the Bills priced as 1.5-point dogs.

Game Overview: The stage is set for an epic showdown in the AFC Championship game where the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This matchup is the latest chapter in what has become one of the NFL's most thrilling rivalries, pitting two of the league's best quarterbacks, Josh Allen of the Bills against Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, in a battle for a Super Bowl berth. 

Game Details: 

Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET 

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 

TV: CBS 

Streaming: Paramount+ 

Current Betting Odds: 

Spread: Chiefs -2 

Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points 

Moneyline: Chiefs -135, Bills +110 

Key Matchups: 

Josh Allen vs. Chiefs' Defense: 

Quarterback vs. Defense: Josh Allen has been dynamic for the Bills, not just with his arm but also with his legs. His performance against the Chiefs will be crucial, particularly how he navigates the Chiefs' disciplined defense, which has been one of the stingiest in the league against the pass. They maintain gap discipline better than any defense I have seen this season. The Bills will need to protect Allen, who has had his share of turnovers, from the Chiefs' pass rush led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. 

Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills' Secondary: 

Quarterback vs. Secondary: Mahomes has an impressive playoff record, especially against the Bills. However, the Bills' secondary, despite dealing with injuries, has players like Rasul Douglas who can make significant impacts. The health status of Bills' cornerbacks like Taron Johnson and Christian Benford will be key. Mahomes will look to exploit any weaknesses, particularly through tight end Travis Kelce who has been a pivotal part of the Chiefs' late-season surge. 

Run Game Control: 

Rushing Attack vs. Run Defense: Both teams have shown they can win games by controlling the clock and the line of scrimmage. For the Bills, James Cook has been effective, especially in the red zone, and Josh Allen's mobility adds another dimension. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have relied on a committee approach with Isiah Pacheco getting significant carries. The team that can manage the game's pace through a successful run game might dictate the outcome. The Chiefs have been solid against the run, but the Bills have the potential to test this with their dual-threat capabilities. 

Turnover Battle: 

Bills' Turnover Creation vs. Chiefs' Ball Security: The Bills have forced a high number of turnovers this season, which could be a deciding factor. How well the Chiefs protect the ball, especially with Mahomes known for his clutch performances, will be critical. The Bills need to capitalize on any mistakes by the Chiefs to keep Mahomes and the offense off the field. 

Special Teams: 

While often overlooked, special teams can play a pivotal role in playoff games. The effectiveness of kickers Harrison Butker for the Chiefs and Tyler Bass for the Bills could be crucial in a close game. Punt coverage and return games might also sway momentum. 

From my Predictive Model:This game has all the makings of a classic, with both teams showcasing their strengths in offense and defense. The Bills have been on a hot streak, showing resilience and clutch performance, particularly from Josh Allen. However, the Chiefs, with home-field advantage and Mahomes' playoff experience and motivated to be the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls does offset a portion of the Bills edges. Expect a game where defensive stands and strategic play-calling could be as important as big plays from the quarterbacks.  

My predictive model is expecting the Bills to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers, the edge in time of possession, and more third down conversions. So, the Bills are 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS (75%), and 11-1 Over since 2020 when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. They are 38-6 SU, 33-11 ATS (75%), and 26-17-1 Over-Under (61%) when scoring 24 or more points and having the edge in time-of-possession. They are 38-5 SU (88%), 30-13 ATS (70%), and 26-16-1 Over (62%) when scoring 24 or more points and converting more third down conversions.  

Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 4-12 SUATS since 2004 and works against the Chiefs. The requirements are: 

The game is the Conference Championship. 

The team we are facing is coming off a home win.  

That same team has won five or more games in which they lost in the stats, but won the game during the current season. 

If that team (Chiefs) has won 6 or more games while losing in the stats, their record is a horrid 1-5 SUATS since 2004. 

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles 
Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 
10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 6-point favorites and good up to 7 points. 
5-Unit Bet OVER the total or OVER the Eagles team total. (Optional bets) 

Time: 3:00 p.m. ET 

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 

Broadcast: FOX, Fubo 

Live Betting Strategy: I am betting and recommending betting 75% preflop on the Eagles priced at 6 points. The Eagles have started slowly in the first quarter of the majority of their games. If Washington scores a TD or FG first, add 15% ore, and if they score the first TD of the game add the rest of the 10%. These plays are only valid during the first half of action. 

Key Matchups to Watch: 

Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles' Defense: 

The young quarterback has shown remarkable poise under pressure. His ability to extend plays with his feet and make accurate throws on the run will test the Eagles' defense7. 

Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders' Run Defense: 

Barkley has been the key to the Eagles' offensive success this season. Stopping him won't be easy, so the Commanders' defense will need to gang up on him and limit his big-play potential1. 

Commanders' Passing Attack vs. Eagles' Secondary: 

With weapons like Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Zach Ertz, Daniels has plenty of targets. The Eagles' secondary will have to manage these threats and make key stops8. 

Turnover Battle: 

As always in high-stakes games, turnovers can be the difference-maker. Both defenses will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes from the opposing team. 

Eagles' Defense Strategy Against Jayden Daniels: 

To minimize Daniels' impact, the Eagles' defense will focus on containing his mobility and applying consistent pressure in the pocket. Their job will be to contain any whole that he can scoot through and make certain he cannot get to the perimeter. Sacks are not nearly as important as is containment. Linebackers and safeties will be tasked with keeping him from making big plays with his legs, while the defensive linemen will aim to collapse the pocket and force rushed decisions. 

Commanders' Defense Strategy Against Eagles' Ground Attack: 

The Commanders' defense will have a tall order in containing Saquon Barkley even if they sell out as they did in the previous meeting. They plan to gang up on Barkley with multiple defenders, aiming to limit his yards after contact and prevent him from breaking off the long runs that have destroyed previous defenses. The strategy will also involve forcing the Eagles to rely on their passing game by containing Barkley early in the downs. This is a major part of the game if Jalen Hurts is not as mobile as he normally is given the extent of his right knee injury. That leg is also where a QB gets his power from to throw vertical routes. From the latest reports, Hurts is expected to be 90% or better by kick off.  

Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-16 SU (72%) and 38-19 ATS (67%) since 1989. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams. 

The road team is playing their third consecutive road game. 

The road team won their last game priced as the dog. 

If the game is a divisional matchup of teams, the home team has gone 13-4 SU (76%) and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets. In the playoffs, these home teams have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with the only loss taking place in the 2010 Conference Championship game in which the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 priced as 7-point dogs. 

Supporting a solid bet on the OVER is the following algorithm that has gone 36-38 SU, 32-41-1 ATS (44%), and 46-27-1 Over for 63% winning bets. The requirements are: 

Bet the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points. 

A team recorded 27 or more first downs in their previous game. 

That same team allowed 27 or more first downs. 

From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games in which they achieved these measures has seen them post a 21-1 SU record (96%) and a 16-5-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets since 2021.  

NFL Divisional Round Preview: LA Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagle 
8-Unit Bet on the Eagles priced as 6.5-point favorites. (Please read the in-game betting, which I highly recommend given the recent betting frenzy on the Eagles) 

Consider betting 5-Units maximum amount on the Over at 37.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only. The Eagles have been slow starters in nearly every game this season. Getting out to a solid mistake-free start is preferred over taking any chances at committing turnovers.  

The line has moved to 7 points at the Circa and there is a huge wave of bets being placed and nearly all are on the Eagles. This line is likely to move to 7.5 and even higher.  

So, bet the Eagles with 50% of your 8-Unit betting amount. If the Rams score the first TD of the game, then bet the Eagles in-game for another 25% amount with a 3-0 or 10-0 or 10-3 or 10-6 or even 13-6 Rams lead. These bets are only valid during the first half of action.Then if the Eagles get to a money line price of –130 or cheaper, add the remaining 25% amount to complete the full 8-unit amount. 

Date: Sunday, January 21, 2025 
Time: 3:00 PM ET (12:00 PM PT) 
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA 
TV Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Universo 

Team Records 

Philadelphia Eagles: 14-3 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs) 

Los Angeles Rams: 10-7 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs) 

Against-the-Spread Records 

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5-1 ATS (Against the Spread) 

Los Angeles Rams: 8-9 ATS 

Preview 

The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round. The Eagles are coming off a dominant 22-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round, while the Rams secured a 27-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings. 

In their previous meeting during the regular season, the Eagles triumphed over the Rams 37-20, thanks to a historic performance by running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams will be looking to avenge that loss and advance to the NFC Championship game. 

The Eagles got a huge gift last night when the Commanders got a monster upset win over the top-seed Detroit Lions. Now, with a win the Eagles will host the NFC Championship game and face their divisional rival for the third time this season. It may not be that huge of gift given how well the Commanders and their super-star rookie QB Jayden Daniels has played down the stretch, but they will not have to travel and win on the road. 

Key Matchups to Watch 

Eagles' Offense vs. Rams' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, will be a significant test for the Rams' defense, which tied an NFL playoff record with nine sacks in their last game. 

Rams' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Rams' offense, featuring quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, will need to overcome the Eagles' strong defensive front. 

How to Watch 

You can watch the game on NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, and Universo. If you prefer streaming, you can use services like FuboTV2. 

Betting and Fan-Based Sentiment 

Positive Sentiment: Most of the sentiment was positive, celebrating Saquon Barkley's performance and the Eagles' victory. This is reflected in reports of Barkley setting a franchise record, the Eagles' winning streak, and the overall dominance in the game. 

Negative Sentiment: There was some negative sentiment, primarily due to the injury announcements, which are meaningful setbacks for the team. However, this was more of a specific concern rather than a general negative sentiment about the game's outcome. 

Neutral Sentiment: Very little neutral sentiment was explicitly discussed in the sources, but the general reporting on statistics, scores, and play-by-play could be considered neutral in nature. 

Positive: Approximately 70% 

Negative: Approximately 30% 

Neutral: Approximately 5% 

Although 70% is on the edge of being too many fans and bettors favoring the Eagles, the betting markets are in a 55 to 60% ticket number and handle.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 104-40-1 SU and 81-59-5 ATS result for 58% winning bets since 1996. The requirements are:  

Bet on any favorite including pick-em. 

The temperature at game time is lower than 30 degrees (week 11 on out to the end of the season). 

The favorite averages more rushing yards than the foe. 

If the wind ranges between 5 and 20 MPH, these favorites playing in the Divisional Round have gone 8-1 SU and 7-3 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

Weather Update: The weather conditions are forecast to be steady snow and at time moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The field is heated below ground to prevent the field in any frigid environment to not freeze and become rock hard. However, if the snow melts on the field initially, the grass turf will become slippery. Both teams should have multiple type of cleats with different length spikes to overcome the potential for a significant deterioration in the field conditions. I do not see any advantage for either team if the field conditions deteriorate in the second half of the game. The advantages will be for the offensive units of both teams because they know what block, what route, what run or pass play has been called and the defenses do not. The defenses will become more reactive and if anything, scoring may increase. So, if the first quarter is 3-0 or even scoreless, taking a pizza money-sized bet and wagering the OVER in-game just may be a profitable one. 

Passing attack 

The Eagles use 74% zone, 26% man coverage 

Vic Fangio coaches this unit, and aside from the Washington game, when they fell apart, this unit limits explosive plays, and is a nightmare for offenses on obvious passing downs. 

The Eagles have one of the better pass rushes in the league. DEs Jalen Carter and Milton Williams have been elite. OLBs Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have been above average. Even on the inside LB Dean has been excellent- Note: Dean suffered a season-ending injury in the Wild-Card game. 

The Eagles have become one of the top pass defenses in the league. There is not a weak spot in the secondary. 

Puka Nacua has been incredible since returning from injury in Week 8. He has seven games (out of 10) with at least 97 yards. In one of those games, he played 26 snaps. In the other two games he had exactly 56 yards. Oddly, Matthew Stafford completed 31 passes over the last two games, and Nacua caught 18 of those passes. Nacua is in the slot 30% of the time. 

Wild Card Game:  5/44 (9) 

Cooper Kupp had a terrible end to the season, posting less than 30 yards in four of his last five games. In those four games, he averaged less than four targets. Still, Kupp is capable of big games. In Week 14, he had a 5/92/TD line, and Kupp had 80+ yards in four of six games between Weeks 9-14. Kupp is in the slot 67% of the time. 

Wild Card Game: 1/29 (1) 

Quinyon Mitchell has had some rookie ups and downs, but overall, he has been above average in coverage. 

Darius Slay hasn’t played at the level he has at earlier points in his career, but he has also been a bit above average. 

Rookie slot CB Cooper DeJean has been amazing. He has played at a very high level, and he also is an excellent tackler. 

Tyler Higbee returned from an ACL injury in Week 16. His snaps went from 14-17-27. His targets went from 2-3-7. Higbee’s catches went from 1-2-5. The tight end scored in two of three games. Still, his 5/46/TD line came in Week 18 when the backups played. NOTE: Higbee suffered a chest injury and missed the last three quarters of the Wild Card game. 

Wild Card Game:  5/58 (5) Left in first half with a chest injury 

The safety duo of Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have both been excellent in coverage. They hold up very well against opposing tight ends. 

Kyren Williams was not the same runner who rushed for 5.0 yards per carry. He was a volume hog with 316 carries and 40 targets, but Williams rushed for just 4.1 yards per carry. The runner only had a 17th percentile broken tackle rate, though he was in the 61st percentile in yards after contact. Williams saw his heaviest workloads down the stretch. In Weeks 14-16, he averaged 27 carries before easing back in Week 17. Before Week 17, he rushed for at least 62 yards in 13 straight games, though he only reached 100 yards four times (102, 104, 108, 122). As a receiver, Williams was at 5.4 yards per catch and went over 20 yards once since Week 4.  

Wild Card Game:  16-76, 3/16/TD (3) 

The Eagles have a top-5 run defense. The strength is the LBs. Dean (injured/out), Sweat and Smith have all been very good at plugging rushing lanes. Meanwhile Baun can get to the edges, but he has been an overall average run defender. Although the three DL are great as pass rushers, all are below average against the run. In other words, teams can get past the first level on some runs, but good luck getting deep into the second level. And on running downs, when they can creep up, they are very hard to run on. 

LB Zack Baun has been one of the best coverage linebackers in the league.  

Eagles offense 

The pass protection from both OTs is elite. Also, LG Landon Dickerson is also one of the better pass protectors in the league at his position. RG Mekhi Becton is adequate, but he is massive, and defenders can’t easily get around him in the middle of the line. Center Can Jurgens is the only player on this line who’s below average. 

The Rams play zone at a rate higher than the league average. 77% zone,  23% man 

If the Rams’ pass rush is unable to make a big impact, the coverage in the secondary is below average. 

Jalen Hurts missed the last two games of the year with a concussion. Although he passed for 290 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 16, Hurts had thrown for fewer than 180 yards in the previous four games. On the season, he failed to reach 184 yards six times. On only four occasions did the QB pass for at least 240 yards, and two of those games were in Weeks 1 and 3. As a runner, Hurts rushed for over 60 yards twice (85, 67). From Week 8 on, his lowest rushing total was 29 yards. As always, Hurts was a primary goal-line option for the Eagles, and he rushed for 14 TDs. Conversely, Hurts only threw 18 TD passes. 

Wild Card Game: 13/21/131/2/0, 6-36 

A.J. Brown was a target hog during his first two years with the Eagles. This year, he averaged 7.5 targets per game. That explains why Brown did not reach 120 yards or more than one TD in any game all season. In terms of floor, the star had at least 65 yards 10 times in 13 games. Unless the Eagles go back to the pass-heavy plan they used in Week 15 against Pittsburgh, Brown may not have the great numbers we expect from him. 

Wild Card Game: 1/10 (3) 

DeVonta Smith had one game with more than 87 yards (11/109/TD in Week 15) with Jalen Hurts at QB. Aside from the big game in Week 15, Smith failed to surpass eight targets in any game between Weeks 6-17. Also, from Week 6 on, the veteran had one game with more than six targets and four games with more than four targets. Smith only had eight games with 60+ yards. Smith is in the slot 51% of the time, but when Brown is healthy, that rate can rise. 

Wild Card Game: 4/55 (4) 

Darious Williams is technically the top CB, but he is small, and he has struggled in coverage this year. 

The other outside CB Ahkello Witherspoon, who has been adequate, but far from solid at CB. (He was injured in the Wild Card game) 

Quentin Lake has been a weakness in the slot. 

Ground Game 

Saquon Barkley had a magical season with 2,005 rushing yards, 15 total TDs and 278 receiving yards. Oddly, Barkley only had a 33rd percentile broken tackle rate, and although he was in the 69th percentile in yards after contact, that fails to take into account the many long runs he had while never being contacted. He had at least 95 rushing yards in all but four games (10-84, 18-47, 14-66, 19-65), but three of those came against solid run defenses. Although Barkley had three games with 40-52 receiving yards in Weeks 9-12, he had a total of six catches and 21 yards over the last five games. 

Wild Card Game: 25-119, 2/4 (2) 

Kenneth Gainwell handled 3-7 rushing attempts in almost every game between Weeks 6-17. Still, the veteran posted at least 19 yards eight times in the 12 games after the Week 6 bye. As a pass catcher, Gainwell had one game (3/40 in Week 15) with more than 12 yards. 

Wild Card Game: 3-14 

The Rams are a below average run defense. Aside from OLB Jared Verse, who has been excellent against the run, all of the remaining DL/LBs are not strong run defenders. There is no one player who is a complete disaster against the run, but aside from Verse, nobody is a strength. 

The LBs (Omar Speights and Christian Rozeboom) are not good in coverage- opposing RBs can have a lot of success against them. 

Props 

Saquon Barkley over 111.5 rushing yards. 
DeVonta Smith over reception total (alt 4+ receptions- same game parlay) 
Gainwell over 10.5 rushing yards – some books have 11.5 and is good to bet.  

Eagles alt line -2.5 (same game parlay) 

Puka Nacua alt receptions 7+ (same game parlay) 

Jalen Hurts alt rushing yards 25+ (same game parlay) 

NFL Divisional Round Preview: Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions 

Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025 

Time: 8:00 PM ET 

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan 

Washington Commanders: 12-5 

Detroit Lions: 15-2 

Washington Commanders: 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games 

Detroit Lions: 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games 

Matchup Overview 

The Detroit Lions, who had an impressive 15-2 regular-season record, earned the #1 seed in the NFC. They are led by quarterback Jared Goff, who threw for 4,629 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions2. The Lions' offense has been explosive, averaging 33.2 points per game. 

On the other hand, the Washington Commanders, with a 12-5 record, have been on a roll, especially after their Wild Card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been outstanding, throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushing for 891 yards and six touchdowns2. 

Key Storylines 

Quarterback Duel: The matchup between Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels will be one to watch. Goff has been consistent, while Daniels has been a dynamic playmaker2. 

Injuries: The Lions have been dealing with injuries, especially on the defensive side. The return of running back David Montgomery will be crucial for Detroit2. 

Defensive Showdown: The Lions' defense, ranked 7th in total defense, will face a tough challenge against the Commanders' offense. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 42-64 SU and a 69-37 ATS result for 65% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:  

Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points.  

The dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games.  

The opponent is coming off a game forcing zero turnovers. 

If the game takes place i the playoffs, these teams have gone 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS good for 80% winning bets. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 6-15 SU and a 15-7 ATS result for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: 

Bet on a road team in the divisional round of the playoffs. 

That road team had a double digit same-season loss to the current opponent. 

If our dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone an impressive 6-13 SU and 15-5 ATS good for 75% winning bets. 

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 

NFL Divisional Round Preview: Texans vs. Chiefs 

Date: Saturday, January 20, 2025 

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET 

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 

How to Watch: ABC/ESPN 

8-Unit best bet on the Texans priced as 8.5-point underdogs and 1 1-unit sprinkle on the money line is highly recommended. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 36-17-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since the 2004 playoffs. The requirements are: 

The games place in the post season. 

The spread is between 5.5 and 14 points. 

The spread percentage of bets is less than 50%. 

The total is fewer than 50 points. 

If the total is between 40 and 49.5 points, these teams have gone 31-12-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets in the NFL Playoffs since 2004. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 41-42 SU and 57-26 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

Bet on conference road dogs.  

The dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points.  

The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe.  

The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 5-2 SU and 1-7 ATS record good for 13% winning bets since 2004. 

Bet against favorites in the divisional round. 

Both teams are allowing 17 to 27 PPG in the current season. 

The favorite is coming off a double-digit loss. 

If our team is coming off the BYE and did not play in the wild card round, has seen them go 5-3-SU but just 1-7 ATS for 13% winning bets. 

Minnesota Vikings vs LA Rams 
8-Unit Bet on the Rams priced as 2.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-18 SU and 16-9 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: 

Bet on a home dog priced at 1.5 or more points. 

They are facing for, who had a 6 or more wins line for the season. 

The foe has already exceeded that wins total by 3 or more games. 

These teams are 0-3 SUATS in the playoff rounds, which means they have never advanced to the divisional round. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-18 SU and 16-9 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: 

Also, teams in the playoff rounds, but not in the Super Bowl, that have exceeded their preseason ‘wins total’ by 3.5 or more wins and are favored have gone 9-7 SU, but just 4-12 ATS for 25% winning bets and this works against the Vikings tonight. 

The Vikings are avenging a loss to the Rams, who scored 2. Teams that are avening a loss in which the foe score 28 or more points and now favored between pick-em and a 3.5-point favorite in a playoff game, have goe just 9-14 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% winning bets. 

NFL Wild Card Game Preview: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams 

Straight-Up and Against-the-Spread Trends 

The Minnesota Vikings enter tonight's game with a strong straight-up (SU) record of 14-3 this season, while the Los Angeles Rams have a 10-7 record. The Vikings have been dominant against the spread (ATS), covering in 12 of their last 15 games, while the Rams have struggled ATS, covering in only 7 of their last 15 games. 

Team Angles 

Minnesota Vikings: 

Offensive Strengths: The Vikings have been prolific on offense, averaging 366.7 yards per game and 25.4 points per game. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been efficient, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson has been a standout performer1. 

Defensive Strengths: The Vikings' defense has been solid, allowing only 19.6 points per game and ranking 5th in the league. 

Key Challenge: The Vikings need to avoid a slow start, as they have been one of the best first-quarter teams, averaging 6.4 points per game in the first quarter. 

Los Angeles Rams: 

Offensive Strengths: The Rams have a balanced offense, averaging 344.8 yards per game and 21.6 points per game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been effective, especially against the blitz2. 

Defensive Strengths: The Rams' defense has been decent, allowing 22.7 points per game and ranking 17th in the league. 

Key Challenge: The Rams need to improve their first-quarter performance, as they rank 31st in the league with only 1.8 points per game in the first quarter. 

NextGen Statistics and Rankings 

Minnesota Vikings: 

Passing: Sam Darnold ranks 8th in the league in NextGen Stats' Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. 

Receiving: Justin Jefferson ranks 2nd in the league in yards per route run. 

Defensive: The Vikings rank 5th in the league in defensive EPA allowed per play. 

Los Angeles Rams: 

Passing: Matthew Stafford ranks 12th in the league in NextGen Stats' Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). 

Receiving: Cooper Kupp ranks 3rd in the league in yards per route run. 

Defensive: The Rams rank 26th in the league in defensive EPA allowed per play. 

Key Matchups to Watch 

Justin Jefferson vs. Rams' Secondary: Jefferson's speed and agility will be a significant challenge for the Rams' cornerbacks, especially Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams. 

Matthew Stafford vs. Vikings' Pass Rush: Stafford's ability to handle the Vikings' blitz will be crucial. The Vikings blitz more than any team in the league, and Stafford will need to be sharp under pressure. 

Vikings' First Quarter Offense vs. Rams' First Quarter Defense: The Vikings' strong first-quarter offense will be tested against the Rams' struggling first-quarter defense. 

Commanders vs Bucs 
8-unit bet on the Commanders priced as a 3-point underdog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season.  

In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion.  

If the game takes place in the playoffs, they have gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. 

If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-poit underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. 

From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is expecting the Commanders to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. The Commanders are 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in past games since 2022 when they have met or exceeded this performance measure. In addition, and based on the model projections, note that teams in the Wild Card round that have scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6 yards after the catch, have gone 8-1 SUATS. 

Washington Commanders: The Commanders finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, securing the No. 6 seed in the NFC. They have been impressive on offense, averaging 28.5 points per game, which ranks fifth-best in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 23.0 points per game, ranking 18th in the league. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers ended the regular season with a 10-7 record, winning the NFC South. They have a potent offense, averaging 29.5 points per game, ranking fourth best in the NFL. Their defense allows 22.6 points per game, ranking 16th in the league. 

Key Matchups 

Commanders' Offense vs. Buccaneers' Defense: The Commanders' offense, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, will face a tough challenge against the Buccaneers' defense4. Daniels has shown great potential and will need to make smart decisions and accurate throws to keep the Buccaneers' defense on their toes. 

Buccaneers' Offense vs. Commanders' Defense: The Buccaneers' offense, led by veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield, will look to exploit the Commanders' defense. Mayfield has a strong arm and a knack for making big plays, but he will need to avoid turnovers and sustain drives to keep the Commanders' offense off the field. 

Rookie Running Backs: Both teams feature dynamic rookie running backs. Buccaneers' Bucky Irving has been a standout performer, leading all rookies in rushing yards. Commanders' Chris Rodriguez Jr. has also made a significant impact with his running game. The battle between these two rookies will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game. 

Special Teams: Special teams play can often be a game-changer in the playoffs. Both teams will need to excel in kickoffs, punts, and field goals to gain an edge. 

Possible Commanders' Upset Win 

For the Commanders to pull off an upset, they will need to: 

Limit Turnovers: Avoid giving the Buccaneers extra possessions and scoring opportunities. 

Establish the Run Game: Utilize B. Robinson and Chris Rodriquez, Jr. to control the clock and keep the Buccaneers' offense off the field. A solid ground attack will open play-action vertical routes in man coverage to McLaurin, Zaccheus, and others. 

Pressure Mayfield: Generate a strong pass rush with solid gap discipline to disrupt Mayfield's rhythm and force him into mistakes. 

Win the Field Position Battle: Ensure their special teams perform well to give their offense favorable field position. 

Packers vs Eagles 
8-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 5.5-point underdogs. 

This is a marquee matchup for the Wild Card Round and gets the nod for the game to start at 4:25 EST. The Packers have the characteristics of a team capable to make a deep playoff run. They possess the ability to stretch defenses with vertical routes and their defense forces turnovers. Road teams in the playoffs that forced an average of 1.8 or more turnovers per game during the regular season and averaged 7 or more passing yards per attempt have gone 12-9 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Road teams in the playoffs that averaged 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt have gone 27-32 SU and 37-20-2 ATS for 65% winning bets. Road teams in the playoffs that forced an average of 1.8 or more turnovers per game during the regular season have gone 45-52 SU and 55-38-4 ATS good for 59% winning bets. 

Now, the Eagles had a great regular season with a 14-3 record and went 12-1 from week 5 on out. They had the 30th (easy) strength of schedule, however. Teams cannot help or control the quality of the teams they play. The Packers losses have been against playoff teams in Minnesota and Detroit twice each, the Eagles, and the  

Teams in the Wild Card round that exceeded their regular season wins total by three or more games, their regular season wins line was 6 or more games (Eagles line was 10.5 wins), and are favored, have gone 7-8 SU and 3-12 ATS for just 20% winning bets. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season.  

In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion.  

If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-poit underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. If the game takes place in the playoffs, they have gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. 

There are far more bettors backing the Eagles than the Packers and this does raise concerns. Of the bets placed at DraftKings, 79% of them have been on the Birds and 71% of the handle. The line has been rock-solid at 4.5 points and only moved to 5.5 points when the official announcement came that Jalen Hurts was off the concussion protocol. At the Circa the betting flows are even more concerning with 29% of the tickets but 54% of the handle on the Packers.  

Green Bay Packers: The Packers finished the regular season with an 11-6 record, securing the No. 7 seed in the NFC. They have a balanced offense, averaging 24.8 points per game, and a solid defense, allowing 19.9 points per game. 

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles ended the regular season with a 14-3 record, winning the NFC East. They have a dominant offense, averaging 28.2 points per game, and a strong defense, allowing 17.2 points per game. 

Key Matchups 

Packers' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Packers' offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love, will face a tough challenge against the Eagles' defense. Love has shown promise but will need to make accurate throws and avoid turnovers to keep the Eagles' defense at bay. 

Eagles' Offense vs. Packers' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, will look to exploit the Packers' defense. Hurts has been impressive this season, and his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs will be crucial. 

Running Game Battle: Both teams feature strong running backs. The Packers' Aaron Jones and the Eagles' Saquon Barkley will be key players in their respective offenses. The battle in the trenches will be crucial in determining which team can establish the run game. 

Turnover Battle: Turnovers can be game-changers in the playoffs. Both teams have been good at protecting the ball, but the team that can force turnovers and capitalize on them will have a significant advantage. 

Possible Packers' Upset Win 

For the Packers to pull off an upset, they will need to: 

Limit Turnovers: Avoid giving the Eagles extra possessions and scoring opportunities. 

Establish the Run Game: Utilize Aaron Jones to control the clock and keep the Eagles' offense off the field. 

Pressure Hurts: Generate a strong pass rush to disrupt Hurts' rhythm and force him into mistakes. 

Win the Field Position Battle: 

Broncos vs Bills 
8-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as 8.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits.  

In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent. 

If the opponent has a 50% or better win percentage, these teams improve to 21-22 SU and 28-13-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. If the game takes place in any of the playoff rounds, these teams have gone 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets since 2000. 

From the predictive model:My predictive model expects Denver to get more sacks than the Bills. Teams in the Wild Card round that sacked the opposing quarterback more than their QB was sacked and are priced as rod dogs, have gone 18-16 SU and 25-9 ATS good for 74% winning bets. If in this situation, our dog recorded three or sacks saw their teams go 16-11 SU and 21-6 ATS good for 78% winning bets. 

Pittsburgh vs Baltimore 

8-Unit bet on the Steelers +9.5 points and sprinkle no more than a unit on the money line. 

This edition of the NFL playoffs is expected to be some of the most exciting games in many seasons featuring numerous lead changes and game winning drives in the last 2 minutes. This is a game in which the team we are betting on, the Steelers, is given no chance at all by the betting markets. Upon a deeper review, we learn that divisional foes facing each other for the third time in the same season have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2013. When these teams have been priced as the dog, they have gone 4-0 ATS, so that is quite impressive even though it is a small sample size. 

Key Matchups for the Steelers 

Steelers' Defense vs. Lamar Jackson: The Steelers' defense will need to contain Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has been exceptional this season with 4,000 passing yards and 900 rushing yards. If the Steelers can pressure Jackson and limit his mobility, they have a better chance of controlling the game. 

Steelers' Offensive Line vs. Ravens' Pass Rush: The Steelers' offensive line must protect quarterback Russell Wilson and give him time to make plays. The Ravens' pass rush, led by Kyle Van Noy with 12.5 sacks, will be a significant challenge1. 

Steelers' Receivers vs. Ravens' Secondary: Wide receivers George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth will need to step up and make big plays against the Ravens' secondary, which includes standout cornerback Marlon Humphrey. If the Steelers' receivers can get open and make catches, it will be crucial for their offensive success. 

Vikings vs Lions 

8-Unit bet on the Lions priced as 2.5-point favorites. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-17 SU (71%) and 38-18-2 ATS (68%) over the past 15seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on a favorite that has won three of their last four games.  

The opponent has won 8 or more of their previous 10 games. 

If the game is a divisional game and our team won the first meeting, they have gone to a stellar 8-3 SUATS record for 73% winning bets. 

The stage is set for an epic showdown as the Minnesota Vikings take on the Detroit Lions in a battle for the NFC North title and the coveted #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. This game will be played at Ford Field on Sunday night, January 5, 2025, and promises to be one of the most thrilling regular-season finales in NFL history1. 

Advanced NextGen Team Statistics 

Minnesota Vikings: 

Passing Yards: Sam Darnold has thrown for 4153 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. 

Rushing Yards: Aaron Jones leads with 1093 yards and 5 touchdowns. 

Receiving Yards: Justin Jefferson has racked up 1479 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Detroit Lions: 

Passing Yards: Jared Goff has thrown for 4398 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. 

Rushing Yards:Jahmyr Gibbs leads with 1273 yards and 13 touchdowns. 

Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated 1186 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

Star Players 

Minnesota Vikings: 

Sam Darnold (QB): Darnold has been a revelation this season, playing his best football and leading the Vikings to a 14-2 record. 

Justin Jefferson (WR): Jefferson has been a consistent threat, surpassing 120 yards in six of his last eight games against the Lions. 

Aaron Jones (RB): Jones has been a workhorse for the Vikings, contributing significantly to their ground game. 

Detroit Lions: 

Jared Goff (QB): Goff has been efficient and effective, leading the Lions to a 14-2 record. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): St. Brown has been a reliable target for Goff, with 109 receptions for 1186 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): Gibbs has been a breakout star, leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns. 

Matchups to Watch 

Vikings Offense vs. Lions Defense: The Lions have played the most man coverage this season, but Justin Jefferson has consistently found ways to beat them. With cornerback Carlton Davis out due to injury, Jefferson could have another big day4. 

Lions Offense vs. Vikings Defense: The Vikings' defense has been solid all season, but they will need to contain Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to limit the Lions' scoring opportunities4. 

Turnover Battle: Both teams have been relatively careful with the ball this season, but the team that can force turnovers and capitalize on them will have a significant advantage. 

The Stakes 

The winner of this game will secure the NFC North title and the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, earning home-field advantage and a bye through the Wildcard Weekend. The loser will drop to the #5 seed and face a tough road ahead in the playoffs5. 

This game is not just about bragging rights; it's about positioning for a deep playoff run. Both teams have had remarkable seasons, and this final matchup will determine who gets the upper hand in the race for the Super Bowl. 

Chiefs vs Broncos 
8-Unit Bet on the Chiefs priced as 10-point road underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits.  

In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent.  

If the opponent has a 50% or better win percentage, these teams improve to 24-25 SU and 32-15-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. If the opponent is the favorite in this game, they have gone a highly profitable 15-3 SUATS for 83% winning bets. 

If the total is fewer than 40 points, these dogs have gone 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 6 seasons.  

Also, there have been 14 games, in which the favorite was priced at 20 or more points. Those favorites have gone 14-0 SU, but a money-burning 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets. Favorites of 17.5 or more points have gone 25-1 SU and 10-16 ATS for 38% winning bets. The lone SU loss occurred in week 14 of the 1995 season when the Cowboys were priced as a 17.5-point favorite and lost 24-17 to the Commanders.

Panthers vs Falcons 
8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 7.5-point underdogs. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-35 SU (43%) and 50-20-1 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games.  

The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 54-97-1 SU (36%) and 97-51-4 ATS good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

The dog is getting outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half of action. 

The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. 

Bengals vs Steelers 
8-Unit Bet on the Steelers priced as 2.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.  

The game is a divisional showdown.  

The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.  

The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. 

The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers are set to clash in a high-stakes AFC North showdown. According to NextGen Stats, Bengals running back Chase Brown has an impressive average time behind the line of scrimmage of 2.61 seconds, the quickest in the league. On the other hand, Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth boasts a catch rate of 85.1%, the best among all qualifying tight ends and receivers. 

Star Players 

Cincinnati Bengals: 

Joe Burrow: Leading the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes, Burrow has thrown for 250 yards and three touchdowns in eight straight games. 

Ja'Marr Chase: Chase is one game away from becoming the fifth receiver since the merger to win the "triple crown." He leads the league with 16 receiving touchdowns. 

Tee Higgins: Higgins has caught a career-high 10 touchdowns this year, despite missing five games due to injury. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 

Russell Wilson: The Steelers' quarterback has been a key player, especially in recent games. 

T.J. Watt: The perennial All-Pro linebacker has been a disruptive force, although he has failed to get a sack in three of the past four games. 

George Pickens: The wide receiver needs 100 more yards to reach 1,000 for the season. 

Key Matchups 

Steelers Secondary vs. Bengals WRs: The Steelers' secondary will be tested by the dynamic duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In their last meeting, Chase and Higgins combined for 11 receptions, 155 yards, and two touchdowns. 

T.J. Watt vs. Joe Burrow: Watt's ability to pressure Burrow will be crucial. In their last matchup, Watt dropped Burrow twice and forced a fumble. 

Steelers Run Defense vs. Bengals RB Chase Brown: If Brown plays, his quickness behind the line of scrimmage will be a challenge for the Steelers' run defense. 

Playoff Seedings 

The outcome of this game will have significant implications for playoff seedings: 

Steelers: If Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore loses earlier in the day, the Steelers will clinch the AFC North. If they win but Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh will secure the No. 5 seed1. 

Bengals: Cincinnati needs to win and needs losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to grab the AFC's seventh and final playoff spot. 

Lions vs 49ers (MNF) 
8-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-35 SU (43%) and 50-20-1 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games.  

The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 23-37 SU and 36-23-1 ATS record good for 61% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows:  

Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games.  

The game occurs from week 12 on out.  

They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs.  

If the game is a matchup of conference foes, they have gone on to a stellar 18-24 SU and 28-13-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets. If the game is aq conference matchup and the total is 50 or more points has seen these dogs go 4-7 SU, but 8-2-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Packers vs Vikings 
8-Unit bet on the Packers using the money line if a 1 or more-point favorite and take any points if they are priced as the dog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 41-16 SU and 38-17-2 ATS good for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirement are: 

Bet on any favorite. 

Our team has won three of their last four games. 

The opponent has won 8 or more of their last 10 games. 

The Packers are sitting at 11-4, while the Vikings are at an impressive 13-2. Both teams have been on fire this season, but the Vikings have a slight edge in the standings. 

Now, let's talk about the advanced team statistics, or NexGen Stats. The Packers have a turnover differential of +12, while the Vikings are at +10. Offensively, the Packers rank 4th in total yards, 4th in rushing yards, and 12th in passing yards. Defensively, they're 6th in total yards allowed,8th in rushing yards allowed, and 8th in passing yards allowed. 

On the other side, the Vikings rank 12th in total yards, 16th in rushing yards, and 8th in passing yards. Defensively, they're 15th in total yards allowed,2nd in rushing yards allowed, and 30th in passing yards allowed. 

When it comes to betting, the Packers have an against-the-spread record of 9-6, while the Vikings are at 10-4-1. The Over-Under records show the Packers at 7-7-1, and the Vikings at 9-6. 

Now, let's dive into the key matchups that could give the Packers the edge. First, we have Packers quarterback Jordan Love going up against the Vikings' defense. Love has been on a roll, throwing eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his past five games. His performance against the Vikings earlier this season was impressive, despite the loss, with 389 yards and four touchdowns. 

Another key matchup is Packers running back Aaron Jones facing his former team. Jones has been a powerhouse, with 440 total yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage over his last five games. He'll be looking to make a statement against the Vikings' defense. 

Lastly, the Packers' defense will need to step up, especially with cornerback Jaire Alexander out due to injury. However, if they can contain Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold and limit his passing game, they have a good chance of pulling off the upset. 

Panthers vs Bucs 
8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as a 10-point underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 35-53 SU and 61-26-1 ATS good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirement are:  

Bet on teams allowing an average of 28 or more points per game. 

The road dog is priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. 

The game features two same-conference teams. 

If the game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season, these dogs have shredded their opponents going 11-12 SU and 19-3-1 ATS good for 86% winning bets since 2015. 

Mayfield throws the 4th most passes to receivers are behind the line of scrimmage.  Carolina allows the second most passing yards on this type of easy to complete passes. However, you will see the Carolia linebackers shadowing every RB in the Bucs backfield to take that play away from the Bucs. The Panthers defense has been playing much better in the second half of the season and they do have reason to try and wreck the plans for the Bucs to win the Division. 

A prop bet worth considering is receptions by the Bucs running backs (not receiving yards). The game plan will still include Mayfield throwing balls behind the line of scrimmage, but those plays are expected to limited with few yards after the catch. So, betting OVER receptions for Rachaad White and bucky Irving look good for 0.5 to 1.0 units each. 

Cowboys vs Eagles 
8-Unit bet on the Cowboys priced as an 8.5-point underdog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 17-17 SU (50%) and 25-7-2 ATS good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on underdogs from week 11 on out. 

That dog won their two previous games priced as the underdog. 

The dog has won 40 to 49% of their games. 

If the game is a divisional matchup, these dogs have gone 7-6 SU and 10-2-1 ATS good for 83% winning bets. 

The Cowboys suffered the worst home loss in franchise history to their divisional rival Eagles this year and head coach McCarthy has not lost the locker room as evidenced by their improved plays and wins priced as underdogs. So, to assume that the Eagles are just going to show up and blow these guys out is not a wise or even informed decision. Yes, the Eagles may win the game but to cover thsi spread is going to be a tall task based on the analytics.  

Broncos vs Bengals 
5-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as a 3.5-point road underdog. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-29 SU record and a 37-16-3 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are:  

Bet on any team (Broncos) that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters.  

That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog.  

The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 52-44 SU record and a 59-34-3 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point underdog.  

The road team defeated the current opponent in their previous game.  

The road team lost its game against the current opponent. 

The home team is coming off a home game. 

The road team is coming off road game. 

Chargers vs Patriots 
8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as 4-point home dogs. 

The following algorithm that has gone 5-15 SU (33%) SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1989 or 36 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on home underdogs from week 14 on out. 

That dog won four or fewer games in the previous season. 

That dog has won 25% or fewer of their games this season. 

The opponent has won 55% or more of their games this season. 

If we delete the the fourth requirements and the opponent’s record does not matter has resulted in a 14-31 SU (31%) and a 30-15 ATS (67%) record since 1989. 

Saints vs Packers 
10-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 14-point favorites. 

Consider betting 75% of your 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Packers preflop and then look to bet them at -11.5-points at any point during the first half of action only. The risk is that the Packers get out to a fast start and never trail by fewer than 13 points after getting a double-digit lead. It also implies we are winning the bet easily ATS. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 40-4 for 91%and 28-14-2ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on double-digit favorites. 

That favorite has won 60% or more of their games. 

The opponent has won 40% or fewer of their games. 

The opponent is on a one or more-game losing streak. 

The game occurs from week 11 on out.  

If the two teams play in the same conference our big favorite has gone 28-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. The loan loss occurred in week 17 of the 2016 season when the Patriots went on the road and lost to the Dolphins 20-10 priced as a 10-point favorite. 

The Packers are sitting at 10-4, while the Saints are struggling at 5-9. Green Bay is 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite this season, and the Saints are 2-2 ATS as road dogs2. 

Now, let's talk advanced stats. According to NexGen Stats, the Packers are second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play with a +1.1 differential. They're also one of only three teams in the top eight in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play2. On the other hand, the Saints have allowed the most yards after catch over expected, with opponents averaging 6.3 yards after the catch. 

When it comes to key matchups, the Packers' offense is firing on all cylinders. Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for eight touchdowns and just one interception over his last five games. Receivers like Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft have been making big plays, and running back Josh Jacobs is averaging a 50.6% rushing success rate. 

On the defensive side, the Packers are fourth in the NFL in opponent turnover rate and have yielded a score on the eighth-lowest share of opponent drives. The Saints, missing key players like Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, will have rookie Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback1. Rattler has a 32% passing success rate and has been sacked on over 10% of his dropbacks. 

In summary, the Packers have the edge in nearly every aspect of the game, from offensive production to defensive efficiency. With the Saints missing key players and struggling on both sides of the ball, it's easy to see why the Packers are favored to win by more than 17 points as projected by the predictive model. 

The Predictive Model: My predictive model expects the Packers to score 27 or more points in this game and hold the Saints to 14 or fewer points and have the same or fewer turnovers as the Saints. In past games since 2021, the Packers are 92-2 SU and 84-10-2 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers as their opponent. Over the same time span, the Packers are 69-1 SU and 64-4-2 ATS when allowing 15 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers. 

Patriots vs Bills 
8-Unit best bet on the Patriots priced as 14-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-23 SU (47%) and 31-12 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe.  

In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards.  

Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game.  

Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points. 

Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss. 

Minnesota vs Seattle 
8-Unit bet on the Seahawks priced as 3.5-point home dogs. 

The Vikings have outperformed all expectations this season starting with their regular seasons wins total that was priced at 6.5 wins. They have won 12 games through 15 weeks of this season and challenging Detroit for the NFC North division crown and the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. However, previous teams that surpassed expectations by large margins in a wide range of statistical measures are prone to regression. This is the situation that the Vikings fid themselves in when they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. 

The Vikings regular season wins total was priced at 6.5 wins. Having earned 12 wins to date they have exceeded this total by 5.5 wins with three games remaining in the regular season.Road favorites of 1.5 or more points that have exceeded their wins total by 3.5 or more games have gone 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS for just 21.4% winning bets since 2010. If our juggernaut is coming off a divisional fray, they have gone just 2-7 ATS for 22.2%. If the team’s wins price was 6 or more wins, they have fallen to earth sporting a 2-11 ATS record for 15% winning bets. The last time this occurred was in week 17of the 2021 season when the Miami Dolphins traveled to Buffalo to take on their division rival Bills, were priced as 3.5-points, and were humiliated 56-26.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 32-41 SU and 51-22 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: 

Bet on underdogs. 

This favorite is coming off a three-game home stand. 

The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. 

If the favorite is on the road and won their last two games, our dogs have produced an outstanding 16-18 SU and 24-10 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. If the favorite, regardless of site location, has won their last 4 games has seen the dog feast to a highly profitable 13-12 SU and 20-5 ATS record good for 80% winning bets. 

Browns vs Bengals 
8-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 7-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points.  

That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers.  

The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points.  

Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-23 SU (47%) and 31-12 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe.  

In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards.  

Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game.  

Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points. 

Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss. 

Eagles vs Commanders 
10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-32 SU and 34-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: 

Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games. 

The game occurs from week 12 on out. 

They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs. 

If the game is a divisional showdown, these teams have produced a highly profitable 8-9 SU and 14-2-1 ATS record good for 88% winning bets.  

From the Predictive Model: My predictive mode is expecting the Commanders to score 22 or more points, have two or fewer dropped passes. In past games in which the Commanders met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS since 2020. In road games, the Eagles are 1-9 SUATS when allowing these performance measures in games played since 2020. 

Key Matchups for Commanders vs. Eagles 

Marshon Lattimore vs. A.J. Brown: Lattimore, recently acquired by the Commanders, will be tasked with covering Brown, who is coming off his best game in two months. 

Bobby Wagner vs. Saquon Barkley: Wagner will need to contain Barkley, who had a huge game in their last meeting with 146 yards and two touchdowns. 

Tyler Biadasz vs. Jalen Carter: Biadasz, the Commanders' center, must limit the impact of Carter, who was dominant in their previous matchup. 

Texans vs Chiefs 
8-unit bet on the Texans priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-32 SU and 34-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: 

Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games. 

The game occurs from week 12 on out. 

They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs. 

If the game is a matchup of conference foes, they have gone on to a stellar 18-24 SU and 28-13-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets.  
 

Bears vs Vikings 
10-Unit bet on the Bears priced as 6.5-point dogs. 

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% preflop on the Bears and then look to bet the remaining 30%if the Vikings score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. The reason the live betting is valid only during the first half of action is that betting in the second half is limited by the amount of team available to earn a winning bet. In option trading in the markets there is a Greek letter called Theta that measures time decay or the decrease in price of the option that would occur each dayif the price of the underlying stock remained unchanged. 

If the Vikings score first, I also like adding 10% on the money line and 20% betting the spread on the Bears. 

The following betting algorithm has produced a 21-34 SU and 34-18-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: 

Fade any team that has won 83% of their games in the current season. 

The game occurs from week 12 on out to the end of the regular season. 

That team is priced between a –1 and –7-point favorite. 

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 38-35 SU (52%) and 51-20-2 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games.  

The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. 

Prop Bets 

Not more than 1.0 units and ideally 0.5 units is preferred. 

Bet OVER 21.5 completions by Caleb Williams. 

Bet OVER 220.5 passing yards (BetMGM) Caleb Williams. 

Bet UNDER 6.5 receptions Brock Bower –110 (DraftKings) 

Colts vs Broncos 
8-unit bet on the Colts priced as 4-point underdogs. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 25-23 SU (52%) and 32-16 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road conference dogs priced between 1.5 and 7.5 points.  

The game occurs in December.  

The road dog has lost three of their last four games to the spread. 

If we drill a bit deeper into the data base, we learn that teams in this situation that are one-game under 0.500 have gone 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 1990. 

Key Matchups: 

Colts' Offense vs. Broncos' Defense: The Colts' quarterback Anthony Richardson will be tested against the Broncos' defense, which has been one of the best this season. Richardson's ability to make plays both with his arm and legs will be crucial2. 

Broncos' Offense vs. Colts' Defense: The Broncos' quarterback Bo Nix has been performing well recently, and the Colts' defense will need to step up to contain him. 

Run Game: Both teams have strong running backs, with Jonathan Taylor for the Colts and the Broncos' backfield duo. Controlling the line of scrimmage will be vital for both teams2. 

Injury Updates: 

Colts: 

Jonathan Taylor: He has been dealing with an ankle injury but is expected to play. 

Michael Pittman Jr.: He is also expected to play despite dealing with a shoulder injury. 

Broncos: 

Bradley Chubb: He is recovering from a foot injury and is listed as questionable. 

Courtland Sutton: He has been dealing with a hamstring issue but is expected to play 

Ravens vs Giants 
5-Unit bet on the Ravens priced as 15.5-point favorites. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 32-3 SU and 23-10-2 ATS result for 70% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: 

Bet on a favorite priced between 6.5 and 16.5 points. 

They have won 60% or more of their games. 

The game occurs in the second half of the season. 

They are coming off a home loss. 

The total is 40 or more points. 

The last game that was active in this situational betting algorithm was the Texans, who defeated the Cowboys 34-10 and covered the spread by 17 points as a 7-point favorite. The game prior to that one was in last year’s playoffs when the Ravens destroyed the Texans 34-10 and covered the spread by 14.5 points priced as a 9.5-point favorite.  

The following betting algorithm has produced a 44-16-5 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games.  

That road team is coming off a home loss.  

The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. 

If our road team is favored by 6.5 or more points, they have gone 13-1 SU and 10-2-2 ATS good for 83% winning bets. 

Rams vs 49ers 
8-Unit bet on the Rams priced as 2.5-point underdogs. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 30-24 SU and a 39-13-2 ATS result for 75% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:  

Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.  

The game is a divisional showdown.  

The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.  

The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. 

If our team is coming off a game in which they scored 31 or more points has seen them go 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018 and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1989. 

From the predictive model: My model is expecting the Rams to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past home games, the 49ers are a horrific 3-16 SU and 1-18 ATS when they have allowed 24 or more points and had the same or more turnovers since 2021. The Rams are 22-2 SU and 19-4-1 ATS since 2021 when they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers. 

Monday Night Football Preview: Bengals vs. Cowboys 

Game Details 

Date: Monday, December 9, 2024 

Time: 8:15 PM EST 

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 

Broadcast: 

8-Unit bet on the Bengals priced as a 5-point favorite. 

Live Betting Strategy: The predictive model expects the Bengals to score first and have an 89% probability of not trailing in the game if they do score first. However, the Bengals have played 22 games in which they trailed at some point in a game and still managed to win the game. The Bengals defense has not played well and are struggling to make stops and get off the field. So, I suggest betting 85% preflop on the Bengals and then add 15% if Dallas scores to tie the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. If Dallas scores first by any means,. Including a safety, then add the remaining 15% bet on the Bengals. 

The following NFL situational betting algorithm has produced a 55-21 SU record and a 53-22-1 ATS record for 71% winning bets since 1990 (35 seasons). 

Bet on road favorites between weeks 4 and 15 in the regular season. 

The road team is coming off an upset loss priced as the favorite. 

The road team has won 25 to 40% of their games. 

The host has a losing record. 

Now, if our road team is priced as a three or greater-point favorite they have gone on to a 33-8 SU (81%) and 33-8 ATS good for 81% winning bets since 2000 with each season producing a profit. This does not mean that this play is going to win tonight for us ATS, however, this algo is part of a group of 112 NFL algorithms that are optimized to balance market risk just like a well-balanced 401-K performs.  

The following NFL situational betting algorithm has produced a 33-5 SU record and a 26-10-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets since 2015. 

Bet on road favorites. 

The total is 38 or more points. 

They are avenging a previous loss to the current foe. 

They allowed their previous opponent 10 or more points above the posted team total. 

If our road team is priced as a 7 or fewer-point favorite, they have gone 26-5 SU and 21-8-2 ATS for 72.4% winning bets. 

incinnati Bengals: 

Record: 4-8 

Points per game: 24.3 (Ranked 15th) 

Yards per game: 358.2 (Ranked 7th) 

Passing yards per game: 270.1 (Ranked 3rd) 

Rushing yards per game: 88.1 (Ranked 25th) 

Turnovers: 15 (Ranked 18th) 

Dallas Cowboys: 

Record: 5-7 

Points per game: 22.1 (Ranked 21st) 

Yards per game: 340.5 (Ranked 10th) 

Passing yards per game: 250.3 (Ranked 12th) 

Rushing yards per game: 90.2 (Ranked 22nd) 

Turnovers: 12 (Ranked 24th) 

Betting Odds and Totals 

Spread: Bengals -5.5 

Moneyline: Bengals -230, Cowboys +190 

Over/Under: 49.5 points 

Cincinnati Bengals 

Out: OT Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula), DT Sheldon Rankins (illness), RB Zack Moss (IR), TE Erick All Jr. (IR) 

Doubtful: OT Trent Brown (IR) 

Questionable: WR Charlie Jones (groin) 

Dallas Cowboys 

Out: QB Dak Prescott (IR), G Zack Martin (ankle/season-ending surgery), OT Tyler Guyton (ankle/knee), S Malik Hooker (rest), LB Nick Vigil (foot) 

Doubtful: WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) 

Questionable: CB Trevon Diggs (knee), LB Eric Kendricks (rest/shoulder) 

Chargers vs Chiefs 
8-Unit bet on the Chargers priced as four-point underdogs. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season.  

In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion.  

If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-point underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners.  

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 26-33 SU (44%) and 38-21 ATS good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on a winning record team. 

The opponent has three or more wins than our team does. 

The game occurs from week 14 on out. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 28-13 SU (68%) and 28-11-2 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams priced as a 4 or fewer point dog. 

The game is played on a grass field. 

The dog won two or fewer games against divisional opponents in the previous season. 

They are coming off a road win. 

They are facing a divisional opponent. 

8-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 13.5-point favorites 
8-Unit bet Over the posted total currently at 45.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 38-2 SU (95%) and a 30-8-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on double-digit favorites.  

They are facing a foe that has won between 25 and 40% of their games.  

The foe is on a two or more-game losing streak.  

The game occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season. 

Date and Venue 

Date: Sunday, December 8, 2024 

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA 

8-Unit bet on the OVER priced at 45.5 points. 

The Eagles have won 8 straight games and committed just three turnovers during the streak and only 11 other teams have ever accomplished this rare feat of excellence. In past games, these elite teams have seen the market overprice them as reflected with a 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 ATS record for 36% winning bets since 2010. The OVER, however, has gone 11-1 for 92% winning bets. If this team is playing at home, they have produced a 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, and a perfect 7-0 OVER record. 

Team Overview 

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have had a challenging season, currently holding a 3-9 record. They are at the bottom of the NFC South. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young has shown potential but has struggled with consistency, throwing for 1,083 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. Running back Chuba Hubbard has been a bright spot, contributing both on the ground and through the air. 

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been impressive this season, boasting a 10-2 record and leading the NFC East. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a standout performer with 2,376 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions1. Running back Saquon Barkley has added a dynamic rushing attack, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns. 

Key Matchups 

Panthers' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Panthers' offense, led by Bryce Young, will need to overcome the Eagles' formidable defense, which ranks highly in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles' defense, despite missing key players like Brandon Graham and Darius Slay Jr., remains a significant challenge. 

Eagles' Offense vs. Panthers' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, will look to exploit the Panthers' struggling defense, which has allowed an average of 226.7 passing yards and 160.5 rushing yards per game. 

Betting Spreads and Totals 

Moneyline: Panthers +310, Eagles -375 

Point Spread: Panthers +8.5, Eagles -7.5 

Total: Over/Under 44.5 

Team Rankings 

Carolina Panthers: Ranked 26th in points per game (17.6), 26th in passing yards per game (177.8), and 22nd in rushing yards per game (107.7). 

Philadelphia Eagles: Ranked 1st in points per game (30.9), 8th in passing yards per game (195.7), and 1st in rushing yards per game (193.4). 

Saints vs Giants 
8-Unit bet on the Giants priced as a 5.5-point home dog. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 25-32 (44%) and 38-18-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points.  

The dog ius allowing a poor 64% completion percentage.  

The defense did hold their previous opponent to 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt.  

The game occurs from Week 4 on out.