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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-09-25	Chiefs v. Eagles +1.5	Top	22-40	Win	100	75 h 42 m	Show
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles SUPER BOWL LIX 10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as a 1.5-point underdog. I suggest taking the 1.5 points paying –110 vig and not the money line, which is around +105. We are getting points and paying 15 points more vig for them. Obviously, the analytics show that the Eagles will win this game by 6 or more points. However, what if the model is not quite right and Patrick scores a TD in waning seconds and the Chiefs win 28-27? Live Betting Strategy: As the grid below shows, the first quarter on average is the lowest scoring one of the four quarters. Scoring increases significantly in the second quarter. So, if this game starts out slowly, look to bet a few units (optional) at 44.5 points. I recommend betting 7-Units preflop on the Eagles and then look to add 3-Units if the Chiefs score the first TD to go up 10-0,10-3, or 7-3, 7-0, or 7-6 if the Eagles kick two field goals and the 6 points is not the result of a missed extra point. The danger here is that this never happens during the first half of action which would leave you with only a 7-unit bet but implies the Eagles would be winning the game. If you want more units bet preflop then adjust the remaining bets accordingly. Since 2000, there have been an average of 3.70 lead changes in the Super Bowl. For the favorites, their largest lead has averaged 7.56 points while the respective underdogs have enjoyed a biggest lead averaging 11.26 points. During this span of 24 Super Bowls, the favorites has averaged a loss by 3.22 points. This means that we want to get on the Eagles after any Chiefs score, especially focused on Chief Touchdowns during the first half. In Super Bowl 57: Chiefs Patrick Mahomes went 21/27/182/3/0, 6-44 KC ran the ball 26 times and passed 27. Isiah Pacheco 15-76-TD, Jerick McKinnon 4-34, 3/15 Travis Kelce 6/81/TD (6) JuJu Smith-Schuster 7/53 (9) All other pass catchers combined for 5/33 Eagles Eagles threw 38 passes to 32 rush attempts Jalen Hurts 27/38/304/1/0, 15-70-3 TDs Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott: 17-40, 5/29 (6) A.J. Brown 6/96/TD (8) DeVonta Smith 7/100 (9) Dallas Goedert 6/60 (7) All other pass catchers 3/19 Important note regarding Super Bowl 57. In my opinion, one of the reasons the Eagles had a great passing attack was due to the ‘ineligible man downfield’ penalties not being called that year. Since then, the league placed emphasis on calling that penalty. Why was it a ‘cheat code’ for the Eagles? Their elite offensive line was able to send players to the second level of the defense on RPO (read/pass options). When those plays were called, defenses were at a massive advantage, and Jalen Hurts had very easy options that led the team to consistently picking up big chunks of yardage. Can we say that every team had that advantage? Maybe. But the combination of the elite (and very athletic) offensive line, Hurts and the great wide receivers were a trio that specifically had the maximum advantage and leveraged that advantage frequently. Since the league began enforcing that penalty, the Eagles no longer have that advantage. From my Predictive model:The Eagles will pound the ball and then pound the ball again. This simple fact will steadily wear down the Chiefs defense, who has not faced an offensive line as great as the Eagles – even with the OL not all at even 90% due to nagging injuries. The two weeks off has been gold for this unit and a much greater benefit then for the Chiefs. So, the Eagles are projected to gain at least 165 rushing yards, have a 2 or more-minute edge in time of possession and have the same or fewer turnovers, and score 25 or more points. So, in last Super Bowls in which a team gained over 150 rushing yards saw them go 6-2 SUATS. In all playoff games, teams that have gained 150 or more rushing yards have gone 180-60-2 (76%) and 174-71-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. If the team gaining175 or more rushing yards has seen them produce a 114-24 SU (83%), and 106-31-2 ATS record good for 77% winning bets. In the playoffs, teams that have scored 25 or more points and gained 150 rushing yards have gone an impressive 134-13 SU (91%) and 123-24-1 ATS good for 84% winning bets; 4-1 SUATS in Super Bowls. Dogs that have scored 25 or more points have gone 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS (83%) in Super Bowls. Dogs that had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS in the Super Bowls. If our dog scored 25 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers has seen them go 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. Teams that had an edge in time-of-possession, the same or fewer turnovers, and scored 215 or more points are 10-0 DSU and 8-2 ATS and if a dog have produced an incredible 6-0 SUATS record. Dogs that gained 100 rushing yards, had an edge in time-of-possession, and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 5-1 SUATS. Teams that scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 13-3 SU (81%) and 12-4 SATS for 75% winners. If these teams were priced as the dog, has seen them bark loudly and angrily with an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record for 90% winning bets. Under head coach Sirianni, his Eagles are 30-3 SU and 24-8-1 ATS when they have scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers. When his teams met this pair of performance measures, and they gained 125 or more rushing yards has seen them go 25-1 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winners; when gaining 150 or more rushing yards, they have gone 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. Andy Reid as the head coach of the Chiefs is just 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when allowing 25 or more points, having the same or turnovers, and allowing 125 or rushing yards. I have a whole lot more research on this game but chose not to be overwhelming. If however, you want to see the details of the rest of the research, simply send me a message to johnryansportsgmail or find me on the X.
01-26-25	Bills +2 v. Chiefs	Top	29-32	Loss	-110	76 h 29 m	Show
AFC Championship Game Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 8-Unit bet on the Bills priced as 1.5-point dogs. Game Overview: The stage is set for an epic showdown in the AFC Championship game where the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This matchup is the latest chapter in what has become one of the NFL's most thrilling rivalries, pitting two of the league's best quarterbacks, Josh Allen of the Bills against Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, in a battle for a Super Bowl berth. Game Details: Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 Time: 6:30 p.m. ET Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO TV: CBS Streaming: Paramount+ Current Betting Odds: Spread: Chiefs -2 Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points Moneyline: Chiefs -135, Bills +110 Key Matchups: Josh Allen vs. Chiefs' Defense: Quarterback vs. Defense: Josh Allen has been dynamic for the Bills, not just with his arm but also with his legs. His performance against the Chiefs will be crucial, particularly how he navigates the Chiefs' disciplined defense, which has been one of the stingiest in the league against the pass. They maintain gap discipline better than any defense I have seen this season. The Bills will need to protect Allen, who has had his share of turnovers, from the Chiefs' pass rush led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills' Secondary: Quarterback vs. Secondary: Mahomes has an impressive playoff record, especially against the Bills. However, the Bills' secondary, despite dealing with injuries, has players like Rasul Douglas who can make significant impacts. The health status of Bills' cornerbacks like Taron Johnson and Christian Benford will be key. Mahomes will look to exploit any weaknesses, particularly through tight end Travis Kelce who has been a pivotal part of the Chiefs' late-season surge. Run Game Control: Rushing Attack vs. Run Defense: Both teams have shown they can win games by controlling the clock and the line of scrimmage. For the Bills, James Cook has been effective, especially in the red zone, and Josh Allen's mobility adds another dimension. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have relied on a committee approach with Isiah Pacheco getting significant carries. The team that can manage the game's pace through a successful run game might dictate the outcome. The Chiefs have been solid against the run, but the Bills have the potential to test this with their dual-threat capabilities. Turnover Battle: Bills' Turnover Creation vs. Chiefs' Ball Security: The Bills have forced a high number of turnovers this season, which could be a deciding factor. How well the Chiefs protect the ball, especially with Mahomes known for his clutch performances, will be critical. The Bills need to capitalize on any mistakes by the Chiefs to keep Mahomes and the offense off the field. Special Teams: While often overlooked, special teams can play a pivotal role in playoff games. The effectiveness of kickers Harrison Butker for the Chiefs and Tyler Bass for the Bills could be crucial in a close game. Punt coverage and return games might also sway momentum. From my Predictive Model:This game has all the makings of a classic, with both teams showcasing their strengths in offense and defense. The Bills have been on a hot streak, showing resilience and clutch performance, particularly from Josh Allen. However, the Chiefs, with home-field advantage and Mahomes' playoff experience and motivated to be the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls does offset a portion of the Bills edges. Expect a game where defensive stands and strategic play-calling could be as important as big plays from the quarterbacks. My predictive model is expecting the Bills to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers, the edge in time of possession, and more third down conversions. So, the Bills are 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS (75%), and 11-1 Over since 2020 when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. They are 38-6 SU, 33-11 ATS (75%), and 26-17-1 Over-Under (61%) when scoring 24 or more points and having the edge in time-of-possession. They are 38-5 SU (88%), 30-13 ATS (70%), and 26-16-1 Over (62%) when scoring 24 or more points and converting more third down conversions. Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 4-12 SUATS since 2004 and works against the Chiefs. The requirements are: The game is the Conference Championship. The team we are facing is coming off a home win. That same team has won five or more games in which they lost in the stats, but won the game during the current season. If that team (Chiefs) has won 6 or more games while losing in the stats, their record is a horrid 1-5 SUATS since 2004.
01-26-25	Commanders v. Eagles -6	Top	23-55	Win	100	73 h 49 m	Show
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025 10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 6-point favorites and good up to 7 points. 5-Unit Bet OVER the total or OVER the Eagles team total. (Optional bets) Time: 3:00 p.m. ET Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Broadcast: FOX, Fubo Live Betting Strategy: I am betting and recommending betting 75% preflop on the Eagles priced at 6 points. The Eagles have started slowly in the first quarter of the majority of their games. If Washington scores a TD or FG first, add 15% ore, and if they score the first TD of the game add the rest of the 10%. These plays are only valid during the first half of action. Key Matchups to Watch: Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles' Defense: The young quarterback has shown remarkable poise under pressure. His ability to extend plays with his feet and make accurate throws on the run will test the Eagles' defense7. Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders' Run Defense: Barkley has been the key to the Eagles' offensive success this season. Stopping him won't be easy, so the Commanders' defense will need to gang up on him and limit his big-play potential1. Commanders' Passing Attack vs. Eagles' Secondary: With weapons like Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Zach Ertz, Daniels has plenty of targets. The Eagles' secondary will have to manage these threats and make key stops8. Turnover Battle: As always in high-stakes games, turnovers can be the difference-maker. Both defenses will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes from the opposing team. Eagles' Defense Strategy Against Jayden Daniels: To minimize Daniels' impact, the Eagles' defense will focus on containing his mobility and applying consistent pressure in the pocket. Their job will be to contain any whole that he can scoot through and make certain he cannot get to the perimeter. Sacks are not nearly as important as is containment. Linebackers and safeties will be tasked with keeping him from making big plays with his legs, while the defensive linemen will aim to collapse the pocket and force rushed decisions. Commanders' Defense Strategy Against Eagles' Ground Attack: The Commanders' defense will have a tall order in containing Saquon Barkley even if they sell out as they did in the previous meeting. They plan to gang up on Barkley with multiple defenders, aiming to limit his yards after contact and prevent him from breaking off the long runs that have destroyed previous defenses. The strategy will also involve forcing the Eagles to rely on their passing game by containing Barkley early in the downs. This is a major part of the game if Jalen Hurts is not as mobile as he normally is given the extent of his right knee injury. That leg is also where a QB gets his power from to throw vertical routes. From the latest reports, Hurts is expected to be 90% or better by kick off. Betting Algorithms Specific to the Conference Championships The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-16 SU (72%) and 38-19 ATS (67%) since 1989. The requirements are: Bet on home teams. The road team is playing their third consecutive road game. The road team won their last game priced as the dog. If the game is a divisional matchup of teams, the home team has gone 13-4 SU (76%) and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets. In the playoffs, these home teams have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with the only loss taking place in the 2010 Conference Championship game in which the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 priced as 7-point dogs. Supporting a solid bet on the OVER is the following algorithm that has gone 36-38 SU, 32-41-1 ATS (44%), and 46-27-1 Over for 63% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points. A team recorded 27 or more first downs in their previous game. That same team allowed 27 or more first downs. From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games in which they achieved these measures has seen them post a 21-1 SU record (96%) and a 16-5-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets since 2021.
01-19-25	Rams v. Eagles -6	Top	22-28	Push	0	3 h 25 m	Show
NFL Divisional Round Preview: LA Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagle 8-Unit Bet on the Eagles priced as 6.5-point favorites. (Please read the in-game betting, which I highly recommend given the recent betting frenzy on the Eagles) Consider betting 5-Units maximum amount on the Over at 37.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only. The Eagles have been slow starters in nearly every game this season. Getting out to a solid mistake-free start is preferred over taking any chances at committing turnovers. The line has moved to 7 points at the Circa and there is a huge wave of bets being placed and nearly all are on the Eagles. This line is likely to move to 7.5 and even higher. So, bet the Eagles with 50% of your 8-Unit betting amount. If the Rams score the first TD of the game, then bet the Eagles in-game for another 25% amount with a 3-0 or 10-0 or 10-3 or 10-6 or even 13-6 Rams lead. These bets are only valid during the first half of action.Then if the Eagles get to a money line price of –130 or cheaper, add the remaining 25% amount to complete the full 8-unit amount. Date: Sunday, January 21, 2025 Time: 3:00 PM ET (12:00 PM PT) Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA TV Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Universo Team Records Philadelphia Eagles: 14-3 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs) Los Angeles Rams: 10-7 (Regular Season), 1-0 (Playoffs) Against-the-Spread Records Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5-1 ATS (Against the Spread) Los Angeles Rams: 8-9 ATS Preview The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round. The Eagles are coming off a dominant 22-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round, while the Rams secured a 27-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings. In their previous meeting during the regular season, the Eagles triumphed over the Rams 37-20, thanks to a historic performance by running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams will be looking to avenge that loss and advance to the NFC Championship game. The Eagles got a huge gift last night when the Commanders got a monster upset win over the top-seed Detroit Lions. Now, with a win the Eagles will host the NFC Championship game and face their divisional rival for the third time this season. It may not be that huge of gift given how well the Commanders and their super-star rookie QB Jayden Daniels has played down the stretch, but they will not have to travel and win on the road. Key Matchups to Watch Eagles' Offense vs. Rams' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, will be a significant test for the Rams' defense, which tied an NFL playoff record with nine sacks in their last game. Rams' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Rams' offense, featuring quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, will need to overcome the Eagles' strong defensive front. How to Watch You can watch the game on NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, and Universo. If you prefer streaming, you can use services like FuboTV2. Betting and Fan-Based Sentiment Positive Sentiment: Most of the sentiment was positive, celebrating Saquon Barkley's performance and the Eagles' victory. This is reflected in reports of Barkley setting a franchise record, the Eagles' winning streak, and the overall dominance in the game. Negative Sentiment: There was some negative sentiment, primarily due to the injury announcements, which are meaningful setbacks for the team. However, this was more of a specific concern rather than a general negative sentiment about the game's outcome. Neutral Sentiment: Very little neutral sentiment was explicitly discussed in the sources, but the general reporting on statistics, scores, and play-by-play could be considered neutral in nature. Positive: Approximately 70% Negative: Approximately 30% Neutral: Approximately 5% Although 70% is on the edge of being too many fans and bettors favoring the Eagles, the betting markets are in a 55 to 60% ticket number and handle. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 104-40-1 SU and 81-59-5 ATS result for 58% winning bets since 1996. The requirements are: Bet on any favorite including pick-em. The temperature at game time is lower than 30 degrees (week 11 on out to the end of the season). The favorite averages more rushing yards than the foe. If the wind ranges between 5 and 20 MPH, these favorites playing in the Divisional Round have gone 8-1 SU and 7-3 ATS for 70% winning bets. Weather Update: The weather conditions are forecast to be steady snow and at time moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The field is heated below ground to prevent the field in any frigid environment to not freeze and become rock hard. However, if the snow melts on the field initially, the grass turf will become slippery. Both teams should have multiple type of cleats with different length spikes to overcome the potential for a significant deterioration in the field conditions. I do not see any advantage for either team if the field conditions deteriorate in the second half of the game. The advantages will be for the offensive units of both teams because they know what block, what route, what run or pass play has been called and the defenses do not. The defenses will become more reactive and if anything, scoring may increase. So, if the first quarter is 3-0 or even scoreless, taking a pizza money-sized bet and wagering the OVER in-game just may be a profitable one. Passing attack The Eagles use 74% zone, 26% man coverage Vic Fangio coaches this unit, and aside from the Washington game, when they fell apart, this unit limits explosive plays, and is a nightmare for offenses on obvious passing downs. The Eagles have one of the better pass rushes in the league. DEs Jalen Carter and Milton Williams have been elite. OLBs Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have been above average. Even on the inside LB Dean has been excellent- Note: Dean suffered a season-ending injury in the Wild-Card game. The Eagles have become one of the top pass defenses in the league. There is not a weak spot in the secondary. Puka Nacua has been incredible since returning from injury in Week 8. He has seven games (out of 10) with at least 97 yards. In one of those games, he played 26 snaps. In the other two games he had exactly 56 yards. Oddly, Matthew Stafford completed 31 passes over the last two games, and Nacua caught 18 of those passes. Nacua is in the slot 30% of the time. Wild Card Game: 5/44 (9) Cooper Kupp had a terrible end to the season, posting less than 30 yards in four of his last five games. In those four games, he averaged less than four targets. Still, Kupp is capable of big games. In Week 14, he had a 5/92/TD line, and Kupp had 80+ yards in four of six games between Weeks 9-14. Kupp is in the slot 67% of the time. Wild Card Game: 1/29 (1) Quinyon Mitchell has had some rookie ups and downs, but overall, he has been above average in coverage. Darius Slay hasn’t played at the level he has at earlier points in his career, but he has also been a bit above average. Rookie slot CB Cooper DeJean has been amazing. He has played at a very high level, and he also is an excellent tackler. Tyler Higbee returned from an ACL injury in Week 16. His snaps went from 14-17-27. His targets went from 2-3-7. Higbee’s catches went from 1-2-5. The tight end scored in two of three games. Still, his 5/46/TD line came in Week 18 when the backups played. NOTE: Higbee suffered a chest injury and missed the last three quarters of the Wild Card game. Wild Card Game: 5/58 (5) Left in first half with a chest injury The safety duo of Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have both been excellent in coverage. They hold up very well against opposing tight ends. Kyren Williams was not the same runner who rushed for 5.0 yards per carry. He was a volume hog with 316 carries and 40 targets, but Williams rushed for just 4.1 yards per carry. The runner only had a 17th percentile broken tackle rate, though he was in the 61st percentile in yards after contact. Williams saw his heaviest workloads down the stretch. In Weeks 14-16, he averaged 27 carries before easing back in Week 17. Before Week 17, he rushed for at least 62 yards in 13 straight games, though he only reached 100 yards four times (102, 104, 108, 122). As a receiver, Williams was at 5.4 yards per catch and went over 20 yards once since Week 4. Wild Card Game: 16-76, 3/16/TD (3) The Eagles have a top-5 run defense. The strength is the LBs. Dean (injured/out), Sweat and Smith have all been very good at plugging rushing lanes. Meanwhile Baun can get to the edges, but he has been an overall average run defender. Although the three DL are great as pass rushers, all are below average against the run. In other words, teams can get past the first level on some runs, but good luck getting deep into the second level. And on running downs, when they can creep up, they are very hard to run on. LB Zack Baun has been one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. Eagles offense The pass protection from both OTs is elite. Also, LG Landon Dickerson is also one of the better pass protectors in the league at his position. RG Mekhi Becton is adequate, but he is massive, and defenders can’t easily get around him in the middle of the line. Center Can Jurgens is the only player on this line who’s below average. The Rams play zone at a rate higher than the league average. 77% zone, 23% man If the Rams’ pass rush is unable to make a big impact, the coverage in the secondary is below average. Jalen Hurts missed the last two games of the year with a concussion. Although he passed for 290 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 16, Hurts had thrown for fewer than 180 yards in the previous four games. On the season, he failed to reach 184 yards six times. On only four occasions did the QB pass for at least 240 yards, and two of those games were in Weeks 1 and 3. As a runner, Hurts rushed for over 60 yards twice (85, 67). From Week 8 on, his lowest rushing total was 29 yards. As always, Hurts was a primary goal-line option for the Eagles, and he rushed for 14 TDs. Conversely, Hurts only threw 18 TD passes. Wild Card Game: 13/21/131/2/0, 6-36 A.J. Brown was a target hog during his first two years with the Eagles. This year, he averaged 7.5 targets per game. That explains why Brown did not reach 120 yards or more than one TD in any game all season. In terms of floor, the star had at least 65 yards 10 times in 13 games. Unless the Eagles go back to the pass-heavy plan they used in Week 15 against Pittsburgh, Brown may not have the great numbers we expect from him. Wild Card Game: 1/10 (3) DeVonta Smith had one game with more than 87 yards (11/109/TD in Week 15) with Jalen Hurts at QB. Aside from the big game in Week 15, Smith failed to surpass eight targets in any game between Weeks 6-17. Also, from Week 6 on, the veteran had one game with more than six targets and four games with more than four targets. Smith only had eight games with 60+ yards. Smith is in the slot 51% of the time, but when Brown is healthy, that rate can rise. Wild Card Game: 4/55 (4) Darious Williams is technically the top CB, but he is small, and he has struggled in coverage this year. The other outside CB Ahkello Witherspoon, who has been adequate, but far from solid at CB. (He was injured in the Wild Card game) Quentin Lake has been a weakness in the slot. Ground Game Saquon Barkley had a magical season with 2,005 rushing yards, 15 total TDs and 278 receiving yards. Oddly, Barkley only had a 33rd percentile broken tackle rate, and although he was in the 69th percentile in yards after contact, that fails to take into account the many long runs he had while never being contacted. He had at least 95 rushing yards in all but four games (10-84, 18-47, 14-66, 19-65), but three of those came against solid run defenses. Although Barkley had three games with 40-52 receiving yards in Weeks 9-12, he had a total of six catches and 21 yards over the last five games. Wild Card Game: 25-119, 2/4 (2) Kenneth Gainwell handled 3-7 rushing attempts in almost every game between Weeks 6-17. Still, the veteran posted at least 19 yards eight times in the 12 games after the Week 6 bye. As a pass catcher, Gainwell had one game (3/40 in Week 15) with more than 12 yards. Wild Card Game: 3-14 The Rams are a below average run defense. Aside from OLB Jared Verse, who has been excellent against the run, all of the remaining DL/LBs are not strong run defenders. There is no one player who is a complete disaster against the run, but aside from Verse, nobody is a strength. The LBs (Omar Speights and Christian Rozeboom) are not good in coverage- opposing RBs can have a lot of success against them. Props Saquon Barkley over 111.5 rushing yards. DeVonta Smith over reception total (alt 4+ receptions- same game parlay) Gainwell over 10.5 rushing yards – some books have 11.5 and is good to bet. Eagles alt line -2.5 (same game parlay) Puka Nacua alt receptions 7+ (same game parlay) Jalen Hurts alt rushing yards 25+ (same game parlay)
01-18-25	Commanders +10 v. Lions	Top	45-31	Win	100	28 h 22 m	Show
NFL Divisional Round Preview: Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025 Time: 8:00 PM ET Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan Washington Commanders: 12-5 Detroit Lions: 15-2 Washington Commanders: 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games Detroit Lions: 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games Matchup Overview The Detroit Lions, who had an impressive 15-2 regular-season record, earned the #1 seed in the NFC. They are led by quarterback Jared Goff, who threw for 4,629 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions2. The Lions' offense has been explosive, averaging 33.2 points per game. On the other hand, the Washington Commanders, with a 12-5 record, have been on a roll, especially after their Wild Card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been outstanding, throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushing for 891 yards and six touchdowns2. Key Storylines Quarterback Duel: The matchup between Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels will be one to watch. Goff has been consistent, while Daniels has been a dynamic playmaker2. Injuries: The Lions have been dealing with injuries, especially on the defensive side. The return of running back David Montgomery will be crucial for Detroit2. Defensive Showdown: The Lions' defense, ranked 7th in total defense, will face a tough challenge against the Commanders' offense. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 42-64 SU and a 69-37 ATS result for 65% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. The dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games. The opponent is coming off a game forcing zero turnovers. If the game takes place i the playoffs, these teams have gone 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS good for 80% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 6-15 SU and a 15-7 ATS result for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: Bet on a road team in the divisional round of the playoffs. That road team had a double digit same-season loss to the current opponent. If our dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone an impressive 6-13 SU and 15-5 ATS good for 75% winning bets.
01-18-25	Texans +9 v. Chiefs	Top	14-23	Push	0	25 h 43 m	Show
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Preview: Texans vs. Chiefs Date: Saturday, January 20, 2025 Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO How to Watch: ABC/ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Texans priced as 8.5-point underdogs and 1 1-unit sprinkle on the money line is highly recommended. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 36-17-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since the 2004 playoffs. The requirements are: The games place in the post season. The spread is between 5.5 and 14 points. The spread percentage of bets is less than 50%. The total is fewer than 50 points. If the total is between 40 and 49.5 points, these teams have gone 31-12-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets in the NFL Playoffs since 2004. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 41-42 SU and 57-26 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on conference road dogs. The dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe. The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 5-2 SU and 1-7 ATS record good for 13% winning bets since 2004. Bet against favorites in the divisional round. Both teams are allowing 17 to 27 PPG in the current season. The favorite is coming off a double-digit loss. If our team is coming off the BYE and did not play in the wild card round, has seen them go 5-3-SU but just 1-7 ATS for 13% winning bets.
01-13-25	Vikings v. Rams +2.5	Top	9-27	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Minnesota Vikings vs LA Rams 8-Unit Bet on the Rams priced as 2.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-18 SU and 16-9 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: Bet on a home dog priced at 1.5 or more points. They are facing for, who had a 6 or more wins line for the season. The foe has already exceeded that wins total by 3 or more games. These teams are 0-3 SUATS in the playoff rounds, which means they have never advanced to the divisional round. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-18 SU and 16-9 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: Also, teams in the playoff rounds, but not in the Super Bowl, that have exceeded their preseason ‘wins total’ by 3.5 or more wins and are favored have gone 9-7 SU, but just 4-12 ATS for 25% winning bets and this works against the Vikings tonight. The Vikings are avenging a loss to the Rams, who scored 2. Teams that are avening a loss in which the foe score 28 or more points and now favored between pick-em and a 3.5-point favorite in a playoff game, have goe just 9-14 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% winning bets. NFL Wild Card Game Preview: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Straight-Up and Against-the-Spread Trends The Minnesota Vikings enter tonight's game with a strong straight-up (SU) record of 14-3 this season, while the Los Angeles Rams have a 10-7 record. The Vikings have been dominant against the spread (ATS), covering in 12 of their last 15 games, while the Rams have struggled ATS, covering in only 7 of their last 15 games. Team Angles Minnesota Vikings: Offensive Strengths: The Vikings have been prolific on offense, averaging 366.7 yards per game and 25.4 points per game. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been efficient, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson has been a standout performer1. Defensive Strengths: The Vikings' defense has been solid, allowing only 19.6 points per game and ranking 5th in the league. Key Challenge: The Vikings need to avoid a slow start, as they have been one of the best first-quarter teams, averaging 6.4 points per game in the first quarter. Los Angeles Rams: Offensive Strengths: The Rams have a balanced offense, averaging 344.8 yards per game and 21.6 points per game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been effective, especially against the blitz2. Defensive Strengths: The Rams' defense has been decent, allowing 22.7 points per game and ranking 17th in the league. Key Challenge: The Rams need to improve their first-quarter performance, as they rank 31st in the league with only 1.8 points per game in the first quarter. NextGen Statistics and Rankings Minnesota Vikings: Passing: Sam Darnold ranks 8th in the league in NextGen Stats' Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. Receiving: Justin Jefferson ranks 2nd in the league in yards per route run. Defensive: The Vikings rank 5th in the league in defensive EPA allowed per play. Los Angeles Rams: Passing: Matthew Stafford ranks 12th in the league in NextGen Stats' Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). Receiving: Cooper Kupp ranks 3rd in the league in yards per route run. Defensive: The Rams rank 26th in the league in defensive EPA allowed per play. Key Matchups to Watch Justin Jefferson vs. Rams' Secondary: Jefferson's speed and agility will be a significant challenge for the Rams' cornerbacks, especially Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams. Matthew Stafford vs. Vikings' Pass Rush: Stafford's ability to handle the Vikings' blitz will be crucial. The Vikings blitz more than any team in the league, and Stafford will need to be sharp under pressure. Vikings' First Quarter Offense vs. Rams' First Quarter Defense: The Vikings' strong first-quarter offense will be tested against the Rams' struggling first-quarter defense.
01-12-25	Commanders +3 v. Bucs	Top	23-20	Win	100	9 h 41 m	Show
Commanders vs Bucs 8-unit bet on the Commanders priced as a 3-point underdog. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season. In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion. If the game takes place in the playoffs, they have gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-poit underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. From the Predictive Model: My predictive model is expecting the Commanders to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. The Commanders are 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in past games since 2022 when they have met or exceeded this performance measure. In addition, and based on the model projections, note that teams in the Wild Card round that have scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6 yards after the catch, have gone 8-1 SUATS. Washington Commanders: The Commanders finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, securing the No. 6 seed in the NFC. They have been impressive on offense, averaging 28.5 points per game, which ranks fifth-best in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 23.0 points per game, ranking 18th in the league. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers ended the regular season with a 10-7 record, winning the NFC South. They have a potent offense, averaging 29.5 points per game, ranking fourth best in the NFL. Their defense allows 22.6 points per game, ranking 16th in the league. Key Matchups Commanders' Offense vs. Buccaneers' Defense: The Commanders' offense, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, will face a tough challenge against the Buccaneers' defense4. Daniels has shown great potential and will need to make smart decisions and accurate throws to keep the Buccaneers' defense on their toes. Buccaneers' Offense vs. Commanders' Defense: The Buccaneers' offense, led by veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield, will look to exploit the Commanders' defense. Mayfield has a strong arm and a knack for making big plays, but he will need to avoid turnovers and sustain drives to keep the Commanders' offense off the field. Rookie Running Backs: Both teams feature dynamic rookie running backs. Buccaneers' Bucky Irving has been a standout performer, leading all rookies in rushing yards. Commanders' Chris Rodriguez Jr. has also made a significant impact with his running game. The battle between these two rookies will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game. Special Teams: Special teams play can often be a game-changer in the playoffs. Both teams will need to excel in kickoffs, punts, and field goals to gain an edge. Possible Commanders' Upset Win For the Commanders to pull off an upset, they will need to: Limit Turnovers: Avoid giving the Buccaneers extra possessions and scoring opportunities. Establish the Run Game: Utilize B. Robinson and Chris Rodriquez, Jr. to control the clock and keep the Buccaneers' offense off the field. A solid ground attack will open play-action vertical routes in man coverage to McLaurin, Zaccheus, and others. Pressure Mayfield: Generate a strong pass rush with solid gap discipline to disrupt Mayfield's rhythm and force him into mistakes. Win the Field Position Battle: Ensure their special teams perform well to give their offense favorable field position.
01-12-25	Packers +5.5 v. Eagles	Top	10-22	Loss	-110	5 h 22 m	Show
Packers vs Eagles 8-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 5.5-point underdogs. This is a marquee matchup for the Wild Card Round and gets the nod for the game to start at 4:25 EST. The Packers have the characteristics of a team capable to make a deep playoff run. They possess the ability to stretch defenses with vertical routes and their defense forces turnovers. Road teams in the playoffs that forced an average of 1.8 or more turnovers per game during the regular season and averaged 7 or more passing yards per attempt have gone 12-9 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Road teams in the playoffs that averaged 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt have gone 27-32 SU and 37-20-2 ATS for 65% winning bets. Road teams in the playoffs that forced an average of 1.8 or more turnovers per game during the regular season have gone 45-52 SU and 55-38-4 ATS good for 59% winning bets. Now, the Eagles had a great regular season with a 14-3 record and went 12-1 from week 5 on out. They had the 30th (easy) strength of schedule, however. Teams cannot help or control the quality of the teams they play. The Packers losses have been against playoff teams in Minnesota and Detroit twice each, the Eagles, and the Teams in the Wild Card round that exceeded their regular season wins total by three or more games, their regular season wins line was 6 or more games (Eagles line was 10.5 wins), and are favored, have gone 7-8 SU and 3-12 ATS for just 20% winning bets. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season. In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion. If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-poit underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. If the game takes place in the playoffs, they have gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. There are far more bettors backing the Eagles than the Packers and this does raise concerns. Of the bets placed at DraftKings, 79% of them have been on the Birds and 71% of the handle. The line has been rock-solid at 4.5 points and only moved to 5.5 points when the official announcement came that Jalen Hurts was off the concussion protocol. At the Circa the betting flows are even more concerning with 29% of the tickets but 54% of the handle on the Packers. Green Bay Packers: The Packers finished the regular season with an 11-6 record, securing the No. 7 seed in the NFC. They have a balanced offense, averaging 24.8 points per game, and a solid defense, allowing 19.9 points per game. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles ended the regular season with a 14-3 record, winning the NFC East. They have a dominant offense, averaging 28.2 points per game, and a strong defense, allowing 17.2 points per game. Key Matchups Packers' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Packers' offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love, will face a tough challenge against the Eagles' defense. Love has shown promise but will need to make accurate throws and avoid turnovers to keep the Eagles' defense at bay. Eagles' Offense vs. Packers' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, will look to exploit the Packers' defense. Hurts has been impressive this season, and his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs will be crucial. Running Game Battle: Both teams feature strong running backs. The Packers' Aaron Jones and the Eagles' Saquon Barkley will be key players in their respective offenses. The battle in the trenches will be crucial in determining which team can establish the run game. Turnover Battle: Turnovers can be game-changers in the playoffs. Both teams have been good at protecting the ball, but the team that can force turnovers and capitalize on them will have a significant advantage. Possible Packers' Upset Win For the Packers to pull off an upset, they will need to: Limit Turnovers: Avoid giving the Eagles extra possessions and scoring opportunities. Establish the Run Game: Utilize Aaron Jones to control the clock and keep the Eagles' offense off the field. Pressure Hurts: Generate a strong pass rush to disrupt Hurts' rhythm and force him into mistakes. Win the Field Position Battle:
01-12-25	Broncos +8 v. Bills	Top	7-31	Loss	-107	2 h 41 m	Show
Broncos vs Bills 8-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as 8.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on a team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits. In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent. If the opponent has a 50% or better win percentage, these teams improve to 21-22 SU and 28-13-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. If the game takes place in any of the playoff rounds, these teams have gone 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets since 2000. From the predictive model:My predictive model expects Denver to get more sacks than the Bills. Teams in the Wild Card round that sacked the opposing quarterback more than their QB was sacked and are priced as rod dogs, have gone 18-16 SU and 25-9 ATS good for 74% winning bets. If in this situation, our dog recorded three or sacks saw their teams go 16-11 SU and 21-6 ATS good for 78% winning bets.
01-11-25	Steelers +9.5 v. Ravens	Top	14-28	Loss	-105	9 h 50 m	Show
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore 8-Unit bet on the Steelers +9.5 points and sprinkle no more than a unit on the money line. This edition of the NFL playoffs is expected to be some of the most exciting games in many seasons featuring numerous lead changes and game winning drives in the last 2 minutes. This is a game in which the team we are betting on, the Steelers, is given no chance at all by the betting markets. Upon a deeper review, we learn that divisional foes facing each other for the third time in the same season have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2013. When these teams have been priced as the dog, they have gone 4-0 ATS, so that is quite impressive even though it is a small sample size. Key Matchups for the Steelers Steelers' Defense vs. Lamar Jackson: The Steelers' defense will need to contain Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has been exceptional this season with 4,000 passing yards and 900 rushing yards. If the Steelers can pressure Jackson and limit his mobility, they have a better chance of controlling the game. Steelers' Offensive Line vs. Ravens' Pass Rush: The Steelers' offensive line must protect quarterback Russell Wilson and give him time to make plays. The Ravens' pass rush, led by Kyle Van Noy with 12.5 sacks, will be a significant challenge1. Steelers' Receivers vs. Ravens' Secondary: Wide receivers George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth will need to step up and make big plays against the Ravens' secondary, which includes standout cornerback Marlon Humphrey. If the Steelers' receivers can get open and make catches, it will be crucial for their offensive success.
01-05-25	Vikings v. Lions -3	Top	9-31	Win	102	10 h 34 m	Show
Vikings vs Lions 8-Unit bet on the Lions priced as 2.5-point favorites. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-17 SU (71%) and 38-18-2 ATS (68%) over the past 15seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a favorite that has won three of their last four games. The opponent has won 8 or more of their previous 10 games. If the game is a divisional game and our team won the first meeting, they have gone to a stellar 8-3 SUATS record for 73% winning bets. The stage is set for an epic showdown as the Minnesota Vikings take on the Detroit Lions in a battle for the NFC North title and the coveted #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. This game will be played at Ford Field on Sunday night, January 5, 2025, and promises to be one of the most thrilling regular-season finales in NFL history1. Advanced NextGen Team Statistics Minnesota Vikings: Passing Yards: Sam Darnold has thrown for 4153 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Rushing Yards: Aaron Jones leads with 1093 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiving Yards: Justin Jefferson has racked up 1479 yards and 10 touchdowns. Detroit Lions: Passing Yards: Jared Goff has thrown for 4398 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Rushing Yards:Jahmyr Gibbs leads with 1273 yards and 13 touchdowns. Receiving Yards: Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated 1186 yards and 12 touchdowns. Star Players Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold (QB): Darnold has been a revelation this season, playing his best football and leading the Vikings to a 14-2 record. Justin Jefferson (WR): Jefferson has been a consistent threat, surpassing 120 yards in six of his last eight games against the Lions. Aaron Jones (RB): Jones has been a workhorse for the Vikings, contributing significantly to their ground game. Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (QB): Goff has been efficient and effective, leading the Lions to a 14-2 record. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): St. Brown has been a reliable target for Goff, with 109 receptions for 1186 yards and 12 touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): Gibbs has been a breakout star, leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns. Matchups to Watch Vikings Offense vs. Lions Defense: The Lions have played the most man coverage this season, but Justin Jefferson has consistently found ways to beat them. With cornerback Carlton Davis out due to injury, Jefferson could have another big day4. Lions Offense vs. Vikings Defense: The Vikings' defense has been solid all season, but they will need to contain Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to limit the Lions' scoring opportunities4. Turnover Battle: Both teams have been relatively careful with the ball this season, but the team that can force turnovers and capitalize on them will have a significant advantage. The Stakes The winner of this game will secure the NFC North title and the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, earning home-field advantage and a bye through the Wildcard Weekend. The loser will drop to the #5 seed and face a tough road ahead in the playoffs5. This game is not just about bragging rights; it's about positioning for a deep playoff run. Both teams have had remarkable seasons, and this final matchup will determine who gets the upper hand in the race for the Super Bowl.
01-05-25	Chiefs +11.5 v. Broncos	Top	0-38	Loss	-112	6 h 38 m	Show
Chiefs vs Broncos 8-Unit Bet on the Chiefs priced as 10-point road underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on a team that won and covered their previous game by double-digits. In that win, they had twice as many penalty yards as their opponent. If the opponent has a 50% or better win percentage, these teams improve to 24-25 SU and 32-15-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. If the opponent is the favorite in this game, they have gone a highly profitable 15-3 SUATS for 83% winning bets. If the total is fewer than 40 points, these dogs have gone 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 6 seasons. Also, there have been 14 games, in which the favorite was priced at 20 or more points. Those favorites have gone 14-0 SU, but a money-burning 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets. Favorites of 17.5 or more points have gone 25-1 SU and 10-16 ATS for 38% winning bets. The lone SU loss occurred in week 14 of the 1995 season when the Cowboys were priced as a 17.5-point favorite and lost 24-17 to the Commanders.
01-05-25	Panthers +9 v. Falcons	Top	44-38	Win	100	2 h 17 m	Show
Panthers vs Falcons 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 7.5-point underdogs. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-35 SU (43%) and 50-20-1 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games. The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 54-97-1 SU (36%) and 97-51-4 ATS good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. The dog is getting outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half of action. The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game.
01-04-25	Bengals v. Steelers +2.5	Top	19-17	Win	100	7 h 27 m	Show
Bengals vs Steelers 8-Unit Bet on the Steelers priced as 2.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 50-38 SU and a 54-31-3 ATS result for 64% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points. The game is a divisional showdown. The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe. The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers are set to clash in a high-stakes AFC North showdown. According to NextGen Stats, Bengals running back Chase Brown has an impressive average time behind the line of scrimmage of 2.61 seconds, the quickest in the league. On the other hand, Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth boasts a catch rate of 85.1%, the best among all qualifying tight ends and receivers. Star Players Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow: Leading the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes, Burrow has thrown for 250 yards and three touchdowns in eight straight games. Ja'Marr Chase: Chase is one game away from becoming the fifth receiver since the merger to win the "triple crown." He leads the league with 16 receiving touchdowns. Tee Higgins: Higgins has caught a career-high 10 touchdowns this year, despite missing five games due to injury. Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson: The Steelers' quarterback has been a key player, especially in recent games. T.J. Watt: The perennial All-Pro linebacker has been a disruptive force, although he has failed to get a sack in three of the past four games. George Pickens: The wide receiver needs 100 more yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Key Matchups Steelers Secondary vs. Bengals WRs: The Steelers' secondary will be tested by the dynamic duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In their last meeting, Chase and Higgins combined for 11 receptions, 155 yards, and two touchdowns. T.J. Watt vs. Joe Burrow: Watt's ability to pressure Burrow will be crucial. In their last matchup, Watt dropped Burrow twice and forced a fumble. Steelers Run Defense vs. Bengals RB Chase Brown: If Brown plays, his quickness behind the line of scrimmage will be a challenge for the Steelers' run defense. Playoff Seedings The outcome of this game will have significant implications for playoff seedings: Steelers: If Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore loses earlier in the day, the Steelers will clinch the AFC North. If they win but Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh will secure the No. 5 seed1. Bengals: Cincinnati needs to win and needs losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to grab the AFC's seventh and final playoff spot.
12-30-24	Lions v. 49ers +3.5	Top	40-34	Loss	-110	8 h 22 m	Show
Lions vs 49ers (MNF) 8-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-35 SU (43%) and 50-20-1 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games. The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 23-37 SU and 36-23-1 ATS record good for 61% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games. The game occurs from week 12 on out. They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs. If the game is a matchup of conference foes, they have gone on to a stellar 18-24 SU and 28-13-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets. If the game is aq conference matchup and the total is 50 or more points has seen these dogs go 4-7 SU, but 8-2-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-29-24	Packers +1 v. Vikings	Top	25-27	Loss	-108	5 h 31 m	Show
Packers vs Vikings 8-Unit bet on the Packers using the money line if a 1 or more-point favorite and take any points if they are priced as the dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 41-16 SU and 38-17-2 ATS good for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirement are: Bet on any favorite. Our team has won three of their last four games. The opponent has won 8 or more of their last 10 games. The Packers are sitting at 11-4, while the Vikings are at an impressive 13-2. Both teams have been on fire this season, but the Vikings have a slight edge in the standings. Now, let's talk about the advanced team statistics, or NexGen Stats. The Packers have a turnover differential of +12, while the Vikings are at +10. Offensively, the Packers rank 4th in total yards, 4th in rushing yards, and 12th in passing yards. Defensively, they're 6th in total yards allowed,8th in rushing yards allowed, and 8th in passing yards allowed. On the other side, the Vikings rank 12th in total yards, 16th in rushing yards, and 8th in passing yards. Defensively, they're 15th in total yards allowed,2nd in rushing yards allowed, and 30th in passing yards allowed. When it comes to betting, the Packers have an against-the-spread record of 9-6, while the Vikings are at 10-4-1. The Over-Under records show the Packers at 7-7-1, and the Vikings at 9-6. Now, let's dive into the key matchups that could give the Packers the edge. First, we have Packers quarterback Jordan Love going up against the Vikings' defense. Love has been on a roll, throwing eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his past five games. His performance against the Vikings earlier this season was impressive, despite the loss, with 389 yards and four touchdowns. Another key matchup is Packers running back Aaron Jones facing his former team. Jones has been a powerhouse, with 440 total yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage over his last five games. He'll be looking to make a statement against the Vikings' defense. Lastly, the Packers' defense will need to step up, especially with cornerback Jaire Alexander out due to injury. However, if they can contain Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold and limit his passing game, they have a good chance of pulling off the upset.
12-29-24	Panthers +10 v. Bucs		14-48	Loss	-105	1 h 7 m	Show
Panthers vs Bucs 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as a 10-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 35-53 SU and 61-26-1 ATS good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirement are: Bet on teams allowing an average of 28 or more points per game. The road dog is priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The game features two same-conference teams. If the game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season, these dogs have shredded their opponents going 11-12 SU and 19-3-1 ATS good for 86% winning bets since 2015. Mayfield throws the 4th most passes to receivers are behind the line of scrimmage. Carolina allows the second most passing yards on this type of easy to complete passes. However, you will see the Carolia linebackers shadowing every RB in the Bucs backfield to take that play away from the Bucs. The Panthers defense has been playing much better in the second half of the season and they do have reason to try and wreck the plans for the Bucs to win the Division. A prop bet worth considering is receptions by the Bucs running backs (not receiving yards). The game plan will still include Mayfield throwing balls behind the line of scrimmage, but those plays are expected to limited with few yards after the catch. So, betting OVER receptions for Rachaad White and bucky Irving look good for 0.5 to 1.0 units each.
12-29-24	Cowboys +7.5 v. Eagles	Top	7-41	Loss	-110	1 h 5 m	Show
Cowboys vs Eagles 8-Unit bet on the Cowboys priced as an 8.5-point underdog. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 17-17 SU (50%) and 25-7-2 ATS good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs from week 11 on out. That dog won their two previous games priced as the underdog. The dog has won 40 to 49% of their games. If the game is a divisional matchup, these dogs have gone 7-6 SU and 10-2-1 ATS good for 83% winning bets. The Cowboys suffered the worst home loss in franchise history to their divisional rival Eagles this year and head coach McCarthy has not lost the locker room as evidenced by their improved plays and wins priced as underdogs. So, to assume that the Eagles are just going to show up and blow these guys out is not a wise or even informed decision. Yes, the Eagles may win the game but to cover thsi spread is going to be a tall task based on the analytics.
12-28-24	Broncos +3.5 v. Bengals	Top	24-30	Loss	-119	6 h 47 m	Show
Broncos vs Bengals 5-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as a 3.5-point road underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-29 SU record and a 37-16-3 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on any team (Broncos) that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters. That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog. The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 52-44 SU record and a 59-34-3 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point underdog. The road team defeated the current opponent in their previous game. The road team lost its game against the current opponent. The home team is coming off a home game. The road team is coming off road game.
12-28-24	Chargers v. Patriots +6	Top	40-7	Loss	-108	2 h 17 m	Show
Chargers vs Patriots 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as 4-point home dogs. The following algorithm that has gone 5-15 SU (33%) SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1989 or 36 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs from week 14 on out. That dog won four or fewer games in the previous season. That dog has won 25% or fewer of their games this season. The opponent has won 55% or more of their games this season. If we delete the the fourth requirements and the opponent’s record does not matter has resulted in a 14-31 SU (31%) and a 30-15 ATS (67%) record since 1989.
12-23-24	Saints v. Packers -14	Top	0-34	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
Saints vs Packers 10-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 14-point favorites. Consider betting 75% of your 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Packers preflop and then look to bet them at -11.5-points at any point during the first half of action only. The risk is that the Packers get out to a fast start and never trail by fewer than 13 points after getting a double-digit lead. It also implies we are winning the bet easily ATS. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 40-4 for 91%and 28-14-2ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on double-digit favorites. That favorite has won 60% or more of their games. The opponent has won 40% or fewer of their games. The opponent is on a one or more-game losing streak. The game occurs from week 11 on out. If the two teams play in the same conference our big favorite has gone 28-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. The loan loss occurred in week 17 of the 2016 season when the Patriots went on the road and lost to the Dolphins 20-10 priced as a 10-point favorite. The Packers are sitting at 10-4, while the Saints are struggling at 5-9. Green Bay is 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite this season, and the Saints are 2-2 ATS as road dogs2. Now, let's talk advanced stats. According to NexGen Stats, the Packers are second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play with a +1.1 differential. They're also one of only three teams in the top eight in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play2. On the other hand, the Saints have allowed the most yards after catch over expected, with opponents averaging 6.3 yards after the catch. When it comes to key matchups, the Packers' offense is firing on all cylinders. Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for eight touchdowns and just one interception over his last five games. Receivers like Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft have been making big plays, and running back Josh Jacobs is averaging a 50.6% rushing success rate. On the defensive side, the Packers are fourth in the NFL in opponent turnover rate and have yielded a score on the eighth-lowest share of opponent drives. The Saints, missing key players like Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, will have rookie Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback1. Rattler has a 32% passing success rate and has been sacked on over 10% of his dropbacks. In summary, the Packers have the edge in nearly every aspect of the game, from offensive production to defensive efficiency. With the Saints missing key players and struggling on both sides of the ball, it's easy to see why the Packers are favored to win by more than 17 points as projected by the predictive model. The Predictive Model: My predictive model expects the Packers to score 27 or more points in this game and hold the Saints to 14 or fewer points and have the same or fewer turnovers as the Saints. In past games since 2021, the Packers are 92-2 SU and 84-10-2 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers as their opponent. Over the same time span, the Packers are 69-1 SU and 64-4-2 ATS when allowing 15 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers.
12-22-24	Patriots +14 v. Bills	Top	21-24	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
Patriots vs Bills 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots priced as 14-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-23 SU (47%) and 31-12 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe. In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards. Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game. Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points. Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss.
12-22-24	Vikings v. Seahawks +3	Top	27-24	Push	0	8 h 41 m	Show
Minnesota vs Seattle 8-Unit bet on the Seahawks priced as 3.5-point home dogs. The Vikings have outperformed all expectations this season starting with their regular seasons wins total that was priced at 6.5 wins. They have won 12 games through 15 weeks of this season and challenging Detroit for the NFC North division crown and the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. However, previous teams that surpassed expectations by large margins in a wide range of statistical measures are prone to regression. This is the situation that the Vikings fid themselves in when they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. The Vikings regular season wins total was priced at 6.5 wins. Having earned 12 wins to date they have exceeded this total by 5.5 wins with three games remaining in the regular season.Road favorites of 1.5 or more points that have exceeded their wins total by 3.5 or more games have gone 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS for just 21.4% winning bets since 2010. If our juggernaut is coming off a divisional fray, they have gone just 2-7 ATS for 22.2%. If the team’s wins price was 6 or more wins, they have fallen to earth sporting a 2-11 ATS record for 15% winning bets. The last time this occurred was in week 17of the 2021 season when the Miami Dolphins traveled to Buffalo to take on their division rival Bills, were priced as 3.5-points, and were humiliated 56-26. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 32-41 SU and 51-22 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: Bet on underdogs. This favorite is coming off a three-game home stand. The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. If the favorite is on the road and won their last two games, our dogs have produced an outstanding 16-18 SU and 24-10 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. If the favorite, regardless of site location, has won their last 4 games has seen the dog feast to a highly profitable 13-12 SU and 20-5 ATS record good for 80% winning bets.
12-22-24	Browns +9.5 v. Bengals	Top	6-24	Loss	-110	5 h 37 m	Show
Browns vs Bengals 8-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 7-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-23 SU (47%) and 31-12 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe. In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards. Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game. Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points. Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss.
12-22-24	Eagles v. Commanders +4.5	Top	33-36	Win	100	5 h 34 m	Show
Eagles vs Commanders 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-32 SU and 34-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games. The game occurs from week 12 on out. They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs. If the game is a divisional showdown, these teams have produced a highly profitable 8-9 SU and 14-2-1 ATS record good for 88% winning bets. From the Predictive Model: My predictive mode is expecting the Commanders to score 22 or more points, have two or fewer dropped passes. In past games in which the Commanders met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS since 2020. In road games, the Eagles are 1-9 SUATS when allowing these performance measures in games played since 2020. Key Matchups for Commanders vs. Eagles Marshon Lattimore vs. A.J. Brown: Lattimore, recently acquired by the Commanders, will be tasked with covering Brown, who is coming off his best game in two months. Bobby Wagner vs. Saquon Barkley: Wagner will need to contain Barkley, who had a huge game in their last meeting with 146 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Biadasz vs. Jalen Carter: Biadasz, the Commanders' center, must limit the impact of Carter, who was dominant in their previous matchup.
12-21-24	Texans +3.5 v. Chiefs	Top	19-27	Loss	-115	4 h 18 m	Show
Texans vs Chiefs 8-unit bet on the Texans priced as 3.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-32 SU and 34-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are as follows: Bet on any team facing a foe that has won 83% or more of their games. The game occurs from week 12 on out. They are priced as 1.5 to 7.5-point underdogs. If the game is a matchup of conference foes, they have gone on to a stellar 18-24 SU and 28-13-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets.
12-16-24	Bears +7.5 v. Vikings	Top	12-30	Loss	-119	8 h 48 m	Show
Bears vs Vikings 10-Unit bet on the Bears priced as 6.5-point dogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% preflop on the Bears and then look to bet the remaining 30%if the Vikings score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. The reason the live betting is valid only during the first half of action is that betting in the second half is limited by the amount of team available to earn a winning bet. In option trading in the markets there is a Greek letter called Theta that measures time decay or the decrease in price of the option that would occur each dayif the price of the underlying stock remained unchanged. If the Vikings score first, I also like adding 10% on the money line and 20% betting the spread on the Bears. The following betting algorithm has produced a 21-34 SU and 34-18-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Fade any team that has won 83% of their games in the current season. The game occurs from week 12 on out to the end of the regular season. That team is priced between a –1 and –7-point favorite. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 38-35 SU (52%) and 51-20-2 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games. The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. Prop Bets Not more than 1.0 units and ideally 0.5 units is preferred. Bet OVER 21.5 completions by Caleb Williams. Bet OVER 220.5 passing yards (BetMGM) Caleb Williams. Bet UNDER 6.5 receptions Brock Bower –110 (DraftKings)
12-15-24	Colts +4.5 v. Broncos	Top	13-31	Loss	-108	74 h 39 m	Show
Colts vs Broncos 8-unit bet on the Colts priced as 4-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 25-23 SU (52%) and 32-16 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road conference dogs priced between 1.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs in December. The road dog has lost three of their last four games to the spread. If we drill a bit deeper into the data base, we learn that teams in this situation that are one-game under 0.500 have gone 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 1990. Key Matchups: Colts' Offense vs. Broncos' Defense: The Colts' quarterback Anthony Richardson will be tested against the Broncos' defense, which has been one of the best this season. Richardson's ability to make plays both with his arm and legs will be crucial2. Broncos' Offense vs. Colts' Defense: The Broncos' quarterback Bo Nix has been performing well recently, and the Colts' defense will need to step up to contain him. Run Game: Both teams have strong running backs, with Jonathan Taylor for the Colts and the Broncos' backfield duo. Controlling the line of scrimmage will be vital for both teams2. Injury Updates: Colts: Jonathan Taylor: He has been dealing with an ankle injury but is expected to play. Michael Pittman Jr.: He is also expected to play despite dealing with a shoulder injury. Broncos: Bradley Chubb: He is recovering from a foot injury and is listed as questionable. Courtland Sutton: He has been dealing with a hamstring issue but is expected to play
12-15-24	Ravens -15.5 v. Giants	Top	35-14	Win	100	70 h 28 m	Show
Ravens vs Giants 5-Unit bet on the Ravens priced as 15.5-point favorites. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 32-3 SU and 23-10-2 ATS result for 70% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on a favorite priced between 6.5 and 16.5 points. They have won 60% or more of their games. The game occurs in the second half of the season. They are coming off a home loss. The total is 40 or more points. The last game that was active in this situational betting algorithm was the Texans, who defeated the Cowboys 34-10 and covered the spread by 17 points as a 7-point favorite. The game prior to that one was in last year’s playoffs when the Ravens destroyed the Texans 34-10 and covered the spread by 14.5 points priced as a 9.5-point favorite. The following betting algorithm has produced a 44-16-5 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games. That road team is coming off a home loss. The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. If our road team is favored by 6.5 or more points, they have gone 13-1 SU and 10-2-2 ATS good for 83% winning bets.
12-12-24	Rams +2.5 v. 49ers	Top	12-6	Win	100	57 h 60 m	Show
Rams vs 49ers 8-Unit bet on the Rams priced as 2.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 30-24 SU and a 39-13-2 ATS result for 75% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points. The game is a divisional showdown. The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe. The foe is coming off a non-divisional game. If our team is coming off a game in which they scored 31 or more points has seen them go 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018 and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1989. From the predictive model: My model is expecting the Rams to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past home games, the 49ers are a horrific 3-16 SU and 1-18 ATS when they have allowed 24 or more points and had the same or more turnovers since 2021. The Rams are 22-2 SU and 19-4-1 ATS since 2021 when they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers.
12-09-24	Bengals -4.5 v. Cowboys	Top	27-20	Win	100	8 h 44 m	Show
Monday Night Football Preview: Bengals vs. Cowboys Game Details Date: Monday, December 9, 2024 Time: 8:15 PM EST Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX Broadcast: 8-Unit bet on the Bengals priced as a 5-point favorite. Live Betting Strategy: The predictive model expects the Bengals to score first and have an 89% probability of not trailing in the game if they do score first. However, the Bengals have played 22 games in which they trailed at some point in a game and still managed to win the game. The Bengals defense has not played well and are struggling to make stops and get off the field. So, I suggest betting 85% preflop on the Bengals and then add 15% if Dallas scores to tie the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. If Dallas scores first by any means,. Including a safety, then add the remaining 15% bet on the Bengals. The following NFL situational betting algorithm has produced a 55-21 SU record and a 53-22-1 ATS record for 71% winning bets since 1990 (35 seasons). Bet on road favorites between weeks 4 and 15 in the regular season. The road team is coming off an upset loss priced as the favorite. The road team has won 25 to 40% of their games. The host has a losing record. Now, if our road team is priced as a three or greater-point favorite they have gone on to a 33-8 SU (81%) and 33-8 ATS good for 81% winning bets since 2000 with each season producing a profit. This does not mean that this play is going to win tonight for us ATS, however, this algo is part of a group of 112 NFL algorithms that are optimized to balance market risk just like a well-balanced 401-K performs. The following NFL situational betting algorithm has produced a 33-5 SU record and a 26-10-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets since 2015. Bet on road favorites. The total is 38 or more points. They are avenging a previous loss to the current foe. They allowed their previous opponent 10 or more points above the posted team total. If our road team is priced as a 7 or fewer-point favorite, they have gone 26-5 SU and 21-8-2 ATS for 72.4% winning bets. incinnati Bengals: Record: 4-8 Points per game: 24.3 (Ranked 15th) Yards per game: 358.2 (Ranked 7th) Passing yards per game: 270.1 (Ranked 3rd) Rushing yards per game: 88.1 (Ranked 25th) Turnovers: 15 (Ranked 18th) Dallas Cowboys: Record: 5-7 Points per game: 22.1 (Ranked 21st) Yards per game: 340.5 (Ranked 10th) Passing yards per game: 250.3 (Ranked 12th) Rushing yards per game: 90.2 (Ranked 22nd) Turnovers: 12 (Ranked 24th) Betting Odds and Totals Spread: Bengals -5.5 Moneyline: Bengals -230, Cowboys +190 Over/Under: 49.5 points Cincinnati Bengals Out: OT Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula), DT Sheldon Rankins (illness), RB Zack Moss (IR), TE Erick All Jr. (IR) Doubtful: OT Trent Brown (IR) Questionable: WR Charlie Jones (groin) Dallas Cowboys Out: QB Dak Prescott (IR), G Zack Martin (ankle/season-ending surgery), OT Tyler Guyton (ankle/knee), S Malik Hooker (rest), LB Nick Vigil (foot) Doubtful: WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) Questionable: CB Trevon Diggs (knee), LB Eric Kendricks (rest/shoulder)
12-08-24	Chargers +4 v. Chiefs	Top	17-19	Win	100	9 h 12 m	Show
Chargers vs Chiefs 8-Unit bet on the Chargers priced as four-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season. In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion. If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-point underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 26-33 SU (44%) and 38-21 ATS good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a winning record team. The opponent has three or more wins than our team does. The game occurs from week 14 on out. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 28-13 SU (68%) and 28-11-2 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced as a 4 or fewer point dog. The game is played on a grass field. The dog won two or fewer games against divisional opponents in the previous season. They are coming off a road win. They are facing a divisional opponent.
12-08-24	Panthers v. Eagles -14	Top	16-22	Loss	-105	2 h 53 m	Show
8-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 13.5-point favorites 8-Unit bet Over the posted total currently at 45.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 38-2 SU (95%) and a 30-8-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on double-digit favorites. They are facing a foe that has won between 25 and 40% of their games. The foe is on a two or more-game losing streak. The game occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season. Date and Venue Date: Sunday, December 8, 2024 Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA 8-Unit bet on the OVER priced at 45.5 points. The Eagles have won 8 straight games and committed just three turnovers during the streak and only 11 other teams have ever accomplished this rare feat of excellence. In past games, these elite teams have seen the market overprice them as reflected with a 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 ATS record for 36% winning bets since 2010. The OVER, however, has gone 11-1 for 92% winning bets. If this team is playing at home, they have produced a 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, and a perfect 7-0 OVER record. Team Overview Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have had a challenging season, currently holding a 3-9 record. They are at the bottom of the NFC South. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young has shown potential but has struggled with consistency, throwing for 1,083 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. Running back Chuba Hubbard has been a bright spot, contributing both on the ground and through the air. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been impressive this season, boasting a 10-2 record and leading the NFC East. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a standout performer with 2,376 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions1. Running back Saquon Barkley has added a dynamic rushing attack, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns. Key Matchups Panthers' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Panthers' offense, led by Bryce Young, will need to overcome the Eagles' formidable defense, which ranks highly in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles' defense, despite missing key players like Brandon Graham and Darius Slay Jr., remains a significant challenge. Eagles' Offense vs. Panthers' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, will look to exploit the Panthers' struggling defense, which has allowed an average of 226.7 passing yards and 160.5 rushing yards per game. Betting Spreads and Totals Moneyline: Panthers +310, Eagles -375 Point Spread: Panthers +8.5, Eagles -7.5 Total: Over/Under 44.5 Team Rankings Carolina Panthers: Ranked 26th in points per game (17.6), 26th in passing yards per game (177.8), and 22nd in rushing yards per game (107.7). Philadelphia Eagles: Ranked 1st in points per game (30.9), 8th in passing yards per game (195.7), and 1st in rushing yards per game (193.4).
12-08-24	Saints v. Giants +5.5	Top	14-11	Win	100	2 h 52 m	Show
Saints vs Giants 8-Unit bet on the Giants priced as a 5.5-point home dog. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 25-32 (44%) and 38-18-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. The dog ius allowing a poor 64% completion percentage. The defense did hold their previous opponent to 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt. The game occurs from Week 4 on out.
12-08-24	Falcons +6 v. Vikings	Top	21-42	Loss	-104	2 h 51 m	Show
Falcons vs Vikings 8-unit bet on the Falcons The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 20-43 SU and a 39-21-3 ATS result for 65% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs of 2.5 or more points. The dog is coming off a loss. The dog committed three or more turnovers in their previous loss. The dog played UNDER their team total. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. If it is a matchup of conference rivals, these dogs improve to a 16-33 SU and 33-14-2 ATS record for 70.2% winning bets. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 25-23 SU (52%) and 32-16 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road conference dogs priced between 1.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs in December. The roaddog has lost three of their last four games to the spread.
12-05-24	Packers +3.5 v. Lions	Top	31-34	Win	100	8 h 55 m	Show
Packers vs Lions 8:15 ET, Thursday, December 5 8-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 3.5-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 54-25 SU (68%) and 52-25-2 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team priced between a 6.5-point favorite and a 6.5-point dog. The game is a divisional matchup. The team is coming off a non-divisional game. The team has lost the last two meetings to the current foe. And the team is coming off a loss. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 26-27 SU record and a 36-15-2 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on any team (Packers) that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters. That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog. The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games. If not in a conference matchup these dogs have gone 8-7 SU and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 34-41 SU and a 53-22 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. The dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games. The opponent is coming off a game committing zero turnovers.
12-01-24	49ers +6.5 v. Bills		10-35	Loss	-108	9 h 49 m	Show
49ers vs Bill 8:20 ET, Sunday 8-Unit Bet on the 49ers priced as 6-point underdogs. 5-Unit Bet Under the posted total priced at 44.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. That team is coming off a loss and had three or more turnovers. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. Our road dog played UNDER their team total in their last game. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 27-9 UNDER result for 75% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: Bet the Under in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points. The road team has failed to cover the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games. The road team has lost their last two games. The game occurs in December.
12-01-24	Eagles +3 v. Ravens	Top	24-19	Win	100	5 h 14 m	Show
Eagles vs Ravens 4:25 ET 10-UNIT bet on the Eagles priced as 3-point road underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 27-38 SU and 45-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 8 seasons. Bet on road dogs priced between 1.5 and 9.5 points. That dog has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have gone 4-9 SU and 10-3 ATS good for 77% winning bets. From the predictive model: My predictive AI model projects an 81% probability that the Eagles will score 27 or more points, have 150 rushing yards, and two or more passing TD’s. In past games i which they met this performance measures have seen them go 42-1 SU and 40-3 ATS for 93% winning bets since 2000 and 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. Philadelphia Eagles: Overall Offense: 3rd in the NFL (389.1 yards per game) Rushing Offense: 1st in the NFL (202.3 yards per game) Passing Offense: 25th in the NFL (186.8 yards per game) Overall Defense: 1st in the NFL (274.6 yards allowed per game) Rushing Defense: 7th in the NFL (95.2 yards allowed per game) Passing Defense: 3rd in the NFL (179.4 yards allowed per game) Points per Game: 26.9 (7th in the NFL) Points Allowed per Game: 18.1 (6th in the NFL) Baltimore Ravens: Overall Offense: 1st in the NFL (389.1 yards per game) Rushing Offense: 2nd in the NFL (180.2 yards per game) Passing Offense: 3rd in the NFL (208.9 yards per game) Overall Defense: 24th in the NFL (374.2 yards allowed per game) Rushing Defense: 2nd in the NFL (77.9 yards allowed per game) Passing Defense: 31st in the NFL (296.3 yards allowed per game) Points per Game: 30.3 (2nd in the NFL) Points Allowed per Game: 24.5 (23rd in the NFL) Star Player Statistics Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts: 3,200 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs, 1,100 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson: 3,500 passing yards, 28 TDs, 4 INTs, 1,200 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs Key Matchups Rushing Attack vs. Rushing Defense: Both teams excel in the running game, with the Eagles ranking 1st and the Ravens 2nd in rushing offense. The Ravens' strong rushing defense (2nd in the NFL) will be tested against the Eagles' top-ranked rushing attack. Passing Attack vs. Pass Defense: The Eagles' passing offense (25th in the NFL) will face the Ravens' struggling pass defense (31st in the NFL). This matchup could be crucial for the Eagles to exploit. Red Zone Efficiency: The Ravens have been highly efficient in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 78.7% of their possessions. The Eagles' red zone defense (5th in the NFL) will need to step up to prevent the Ravens from scoring. The Ravens may appear to be a great defense against the run, but they only rank that high because teams have run 35% rushing plays against them knowing that the Ravens have struggled mightily against the pass. The Eagles have a potent ground attack that is not dependent on the QB, like the Ravens, to gain a high percentage of the total yards. Historically speaking, an offensive line gets better adn better when they know they have an elite, league-leaguing, running back behind them. The Eagles will have a tremendous advantage using play-action pass plays when the Ravens are forced to bring a safety or both toward the line of scrimmage to help defend the run.
12-01-24	Steelers +3 v. Bengals		44-38	Win	100	2 h 34 m	Show
Steelers vs Bengals 1:00 Sunday ET 5-Unit bet on the Steelers priced as a 3-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 37-39 SU and 53-23 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on conference road dogs. The dog is priced between 2.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe. The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 26-28 SU and 36-16-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on any team (Steelers) that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters. That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog. The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games. If our team, the Steelers, won the previous meeting against the current foe, they soar to a remarkable 14-8 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 54-62 SU (47%) and 69-45-3 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 1 and 5.5 points. The dog had no more than one turnover in their previous game. The host is coming off a non-divisional game. The road team has defeated the home team in each of their last two meetings. If the game is a matchup of divisional foes, our road dog improves to 23-25 SU and 30-16-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tweaking the previous NFL betting algorithm a bit has produced a10-8 SU (56%) and 13-4-1 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs of not more than 7 points. They are facing a divisional foe. The opponent is coming off a non-divisional loss. Our dog committed at least one turnover in each of their two previous games. Our dog has won the last two meetings against the current foe.
12-01-24	Texans v. Jaguars +3.5	Top	23-20	Win	100	2 h 33 m	Show
Texans vs Jaguars 8-unit bet on the Jaguars priced as 3.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs taking on a divisional foe. In the previous meeting our team passed for more than 150 yards. The dog is coming off a non-divisional game and lost by 7 or more points. Our dog recorded fewer than 18 first downs in their previous game loss. If our team lost their previous game by 21 or more points, they improve to a 10-15 SU and 18-7 ATS record good for 72% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 29-38 SU (43%) and 47-18-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. The dog is outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half. If our dog is outscored by double-digits in the first half of action they have gone 9-14 SU and 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
12-01-24	Cardinals +4 v. Vikings	Top	22-23	Win	100	2 h 33 m	Show
Cardinals vs Vikings 1 ET 8-Unit bet on the Cardinals priced as 3-point road underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 22-30 SU and a 36-15-1 ATS result for 71% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs between 2.5 and 5.5 points. That dog played Under their previous team total. The dog lost their previous game to a conference opponent priced as a favorite. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 21-24 SU and a 31-14-3 ATS result for 69% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: Bet on winning record road teams from week 9 on out. The opponent is coming off a road win to a divisional foe. The opponent has won 70% or more of their games.
12-01-24	Chargers v. Falcons	Top	17-13	Win	100	1 h 28 m	Show
Chargers vs Falcons 1 ET 8-UNIT bet on the Chargers using the money line. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 62-44 SU and a 58-43-5 ATS result for 57.4% winning bets since 1999. The requirements are: Bet on any team from the Pacific time zone. They are on the road facing a team from the East Coast. The game starts at 1:00 ET. If our road team from the West Coast is coming off a home loss, they improve to 16-10 SU and 16-9-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. Drilling deeper in the data finds that these teams when playing a non-conference foe have gone 7-3-1 ATS for 70% winning bets and when priced as the favorite including pick-em, have gone 5-1 SUATS The following betting algorithm has produced a 42-20 SU and 43-16-3 ATS result good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games. That road team is coming off a home loss. The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season.
11-29-24	Raiders v. Chiefs -13	Top	17-19	Loss	-106	30 h 40 m	Show
Raiders vs Chiefs 3 ET, Friday 8-Unit bet on the Chiefs priced as 13-point favorites. I’ll start with the fact that based on overall DVOA, the Chiefs are one of the worst and weakest 10-1 teams in the past 50 seasons. Call it smoke and mirrors if you will or perhaps just the lucky Horsehoe effect. However, let’s not forget that they are the two-time reigning Super Bowl Champions and are building toward the goal of winning an unprecedented third Championship. Live Betting Strategy: In 9 of the Chiefs games this season they trailed at some point. So, if the Raiders score first or take the lead during the first half of action would represent a great betting opportunity on the Chiefs. Consider betting 75% preflop on the Chiefs and then add the 25% more based on the scenario mentioned above. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 57-19 SU and 47-27-2 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on favorites priced at 3 or more points. Their last two games played Over the total. The game is a divisional matchup. The current total is lower than the previous game’s total, which was lower than the total for the third-to-last game. If our favorite is priced as a double-digit favorite, they have gone 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) with the lone SU loss occurring in week 4 of the 2007 season when the Chargers lost to the Chiefs 30-16 and were priced as 11.5-point home favorites.
11-28-24	Dolphins +3.5 v. Packers	Top	17-30	Loss	-119	29 h 59 m	Show
Dolphins vs Packers 8:20 ET Thanksgiving Night 5-Unit Under the total currently priced at 47 points. 8-Unit bet on the Dolphins priced as 3.5-point dogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 19-8 Under record good for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirement are: Bet the Under with a team that has won 60% or more of their games. The game time is in prime time (after 6 ET). This team will be on the road against a divisional opponent in their next game. Supporting the bet on the Dolphins is the following betting algorithm that has gone 18-21 SU and a remarkable 33-6 ATS for 85% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. That dog has held their previous three opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. Everyone knows the Dolphins record is horrid when playing in temperatures at 40 or fewer degrees at game time and that Tua is 0-4 in those games. However, these types of trends are mature and overextended like an overbought stock like Nvidia or even BitCoin currently in the financial markets. This does NOT mean that the long-term trend will reverse and go say, 17-3 for instance, but at the very least it will consolidate and produce more winners than losers over the next several seasons. The game time temperature is expected to be a balmy 28 degrees. Since 2015, the Fish have gone 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in games that had a 40 or fewer-degree game time temperature. They are also 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS when the game tie temp was 35 or fewer degrees. This is an example of contrarian investing and betting and the fact that the Dolphins are not a 6 or more-point dog is the market read pointing to this type of bet. Live betting Strategy: I recommend betting 70% of your 8-Unit and 5-Unit bet preflop and then look for Green Bay to score first, either FG or TD, or retake the lead during the first half of action to add the 30% amount on the Fish. In addition, look for a slower start to the game than expected and add 30% to the Over bet at any price below 42.5 points.
11-24-24	Eagles v. Rams +3	Top	37-20	Loss	-116	13 h 33 m	Show
Eagles vs Rams 8-Unit bet on the Rames priced as 2.5-point home underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 23-9 SU and 20-10-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet on a team coming off a non-conference game. The opponent is coming off two consecutive games against divisional rivals. The total is 47.5 or more points. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-34 SU and 35-17-3 ATS for 67% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs that have allowed 375 or more total yards to each of their last three opponents. The opponent is outgaining their foes by 50 or more total yards per game. If the game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season, these teams improve to a 16-6-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) are on a six-game winning streak and have taken control of the NFC East. They are well-rested and have a commanding lead in their division2. The Los Angeles Rams (5-5) are coming off a win against the New England Patriots and are looking to keep pace in the competitive NFC West. Team Statistics Philadelphia Eagles: Offense: 26.3 PPG (Points Per Game) Defense: 18.2 PPG allowed Total Yards: 375.1 YPG Rushing Yards: 135.2 YPG Passing Yards: 239.9 YPG Turnovers: 12 (6 INTs, 6 Fumbles) Los Angeles Rams: Offense: 24.1 PPG Defense: 21.5 PPG allowed Total Yards: 360.3 YPG Rushing Yards: 110.2 YPG Passing Yards: 250.1 YPG Turnovers: 15 (8 INTs, 7 Fumbles) Key Players Performance Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts: 2,197 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 417 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs Saquon Barkley: 1,137 rushing yards, 210 receiving yards, 10 total TDs A.J. Brown: 33 catches, 618 yards, 3 TDs Josh Sweat: 23 tackles, 6 sacks, 7 TFLs, 12 QBHs, 2 PDs Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford: 2,557 passing yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs Kyren Williams: 750 rushing yards, 136 receiving yards, 10 total TDs Cooper Kupp: 47 catches, 488 yards, 4 TDs Byron Young: 38 tackles, 6 sacks, 10 TFLs, 11 QBHs, 1 PD, 1 FF Injury Reports Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts: Limited in practice due to an ankle injury but cleared concussion protocol. Dallas Goedert: Questionable with a shoulder injury. Darius Slay: Probable with a hamstring issue. Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua: Cleared to play after a scare last week with a knee injury. Kamren Kinchens: Probable with a minor ankle sprain. Ernest Jones IV: Questionable with a knee injury.
11-24-24	Broncos -5.5 v. Raiders	Top	29-19	Win	100	8 h 17 m	Show
Broncos vs Raiders 8-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as 6-point road favorites. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 28-16 SU and 26-13-5 ATS for 67% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet on any team facing a team that has won 25% or fewer of their games. The losing record opponent is coming off two consecutive road losses. The game occurs from week 4 to the end of the season. The total is priced between 37.5 and 42.5 points. Team Overview The Denver Broncos (6-5) are set to face the Las Vegas Raiders (3-8) in Week 12 of the NFL season. The Broncos are coming off a dominant 38-6 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, while the Raiders are reeling from a six-game losing streak. Team Statistics Denver Broncos: Offense: Overall (23), Rush (20), Pass (25), Scoring (20) Defense: Overall (3), Rush (6), Pass (7), Scoring (3) Turnover Differential: Even Las Vegas Raiders: Offense: Overall (30), Rush (32), Pass (17), Scoring (25) Defense: Overall (15), Rush (15), Pass (11), Scoring (29) Turnover Differential: Minus-15 Key Player Performances Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (QB): Nix has been a revelation this season, winning the NFL's Rookie of the Month award in October and the AFC Player of the Week award in November. He threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns in Week 111. Brock Bowers (TE): Bowers has been a consistent target for Nix, with 70 receptions for 706 yards and three touchdowns this season. Courtland Sutton (WR): Sutton has four consecutive games with at least 70 receiving yards, a first for a Broncos receiver since 2019. Las Vegas Raiders: Maxx Crosby (DE): Crosby leads the Raiders with 35 quarterback pressures, despite a recent sack drought. Zamir White (RB): White's status is uncertain due to a quadriceps injury. Nate Hobbs (CB): Hobbs is also questionable with an ankle injury. Injury Reports Denver Broncos: G Ben Powers (shoulder): Powers got hurt last week and is questionable. S Brandon Jones (abdomen): Jones missed the last game and is also questionable. Las Vegas Raiders: RB Alexander Mattison (ankle): Mattison is questionable for the game. RB Zamir White (quadriceps): White is also questionable. CB Nate Hobbs (ankle): Hobbs is questionable. CB Jack Jones (back): Jones is questionable. CB Jakorian Bennett (shoulder): Bennett is questionable.
11-24-24	Chiefs v. Panthers +11		30-27	Win	100	5 h 9 m	Show
Chiefs vs Panthers 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 10.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 8-9 SU (47%) and a 16-2 ATS record good for 89% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home dog of 6 or more points. The home team has had 10 or more days of rest. The home team has a losing record. The home team scored 14 or more points in their previous game. The home team won 8 or fewer games in the previous season. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) Record: 9-1 Points per game: 24.3 Yards per game: 365.2 Rushing yards per game: 111.5 Passing yards per game: 253.7 Turnovers: 15 (11 interceptions, 4 fumbles) Sacks allowed: 20 Carolina Panthers (3-7) Record: 3-7 Points per game: 18.2 Yards per game: 315.1 Rushing yards per game: 98.3 Passing yards per game: 216.8 Turnovers: 18 (10 interceptions, 8 fumbles) Sacks allowed: 25 Key Player Performances Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes: 2,890 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions Travis Kelce: 65 receptions, 780 yards, 8 touchdowns Isiah Pacheco: 500 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns (injured) Xavier Worthy: 35 receptions, 450 yards, 3 touchdowns Carolina Panthers Bryce Young: 2,100 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 8 interceptions Chuba Hubbard: 800 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns D.J. Moore: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 5 touchdowns Xavier Legette: 30 receptions, 350 yards, 2 touchdowns Injury Reports Kansas City Chiefs Isiah Pacheco: Ankle injury (questionable) Charles Omenihu: ACL surgery recovery (questionable) Xavier Worthy: Minor hamstring strain (probable) Carolina Panthers D.J. Wonnum: Ankle injury (questionable) Josey Jewell: Knee injury (probable) D.J. Moore: Shoulder injury (probable) Game Prediction The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season, a 30-21 defeat to the Buffalo Bills. Despite the loss, they remain strong contenders for a third consecutive Super Bowl1. The Panthers, on the other hand, are on a two-game win streak and have shown improvement under quarterback Bryce Young. The Chiefs are favored by 11 points, but the spread might be too large considering Kansas City's tendency to play close games. The Panthers will need to play clean football and win the turnover battle to have a chance at an upset. Panthers will cover is the call.
11-24-24	Patriots +7.5 v. Dolphins	Top	15-34	Loss	-114	5 h 12 m	Show
Patriots vs Dolphins 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as a 7.5-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 52-61 SU and 70-39-4 ATS for 64.2% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs. The opponent is on a three or more-game STS win streak. The opponent has a losing record. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 52-61 SU and 70-39-4 ATS for 64.2% winning bets. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. They have a losing record this season. The opponent has won two of their last three games. The opponent has won more than 40% of their games. Team Overview The New England Patriots (3-8) are set to face the Miami Dolphins (4-6) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, November 24, 2024. The Dolphins are looking to extend their winning streak to three games, while the Patriots are hoping to bounce back from a tough loss to the Los Angeles Rams2. Team Statistics New England Patriots: Offensive Stats: 18.2 PPG (Points Per Game), 225.3 YPG (Yards Per Game), 5.1 YPC (Yards Per Carry) Defensive Stats: 24.5 PPG allowed, 275.1 YPG allowed, 4.7 YPC allowed Special Teams: 42.3% FG (Field Goal Percentage), 4.2 Net Yards Per Punt Miami Dolphins: Offensive Stats: 27.8 PPG, 289.2 YPG, 4.6 YPC Defensive Stats: 22.1 PPG allowed, 260.5 YPG allowed, 4.2 YPC allowed Special Teams: 45.6% FG, 5.1 Net Yards Per Punt Key Player Performances New England Patriots: Drake Maye (QB): 282.5 YPG, 2.5 TDs per game, 1.5 INTs per game Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 89 YPG, 4.2 YPC, 0.5 TDs per game Christian Gonzalez (CB): 2 INTs, 5 PDs (Passes Defended), 60 Tackles Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (QB): 288 YPG, 3 TDs per game, 0.8 INTs per game Tyreek Hill (WR): 90 YPG, 15.2 YPC, 1 TD per game Jaylen Waddle (WR): 85 YPG, 14.1 YPC, 0.8 TDs per game Jonnu Smith (TE): 60 YPG, 10.5 YPC, 0.5 TDs per game Injury Reports New England Patriots: Out: WR Jakobi Meyers (Shoulder), DE Josh Uche (Knee) Questionable: OT Isaiah Wynn (Ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (Concussion) Miami Dolphins: Out: DE Emmanuel Ogbah (Elbow), CB Xavien Howard (Knee) Questionable: OT Terron Armstead (Knee), WR Cedrick Wilson (Hamstring)
11-24-24	Lions v. Colts +7.5	Top	24-6	Loss	-120	5 h 11 m	Show
Lions vs Colts 8-Unit bet on the Colts priced as 7.5-point home underdogs and a sprinkle on the money line too. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 8-13 (38%) and 15-6 ATS good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The favorite has covered the spread by 60 or more points spanning their previous four games. If our home team is the underdog, they barked loudly to the tune of a 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS record for 82% winning bets. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 21-44 SU (32%) and 41-23-1 ATS good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home dogs priced between 4 and 9 points. The foe is averaging 14 or more points scored in the first half of their games. The foe allowed 14 or fewer points to their previous foe. Detroit Lions Overview The Detroit Lions have been on a roll this season, boasting a 9-1 record and an 8-2 record against the spread (ATS). They are currently the favorites to win the NFC and are considered one of the best teams in the NFL2. Key Players Jared Goff: Goff has been exceptional this season, completing 73% of his throws and averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Jahmyr Gibbs: Leading the NFL with an average of 6.0 yards per rush, Gibbs has been a dynamic force in the running game. Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown leads the team in targets with 77, catching 85% of those throws and hauling in 9 touchdowns. Sam LaPorta: LaPorta has been a reliable tight end, contributing significantly to the Lions' offensive success. Team Statistics Offensive Rank: 1st in the NFL Points per Game: 33.0 Yards per Game: 420.5 Turnover Differential: +9 (3rd best in the NFL) Injury Report Aidan Hutchinson: On injured reserve Alex Anzalone: Questionable for the game Indianapolis Colts Overview The Indianapolis Colts are currently 5-6 and have recently settled on Anthony Richardson as their quarterback. They are coming off a win against the New York Jets and are looking to continue their winning ways2. Key Players Anthony Richardson: Richardson has shown promise, leading the Colts to a comeback win against the Jets. Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has been dealing with lingering ankle issues but remains a key player in the Colts' offense. Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman has been a reliable target for Richardson, contributing significantly to the Colts' passing game. Team Statistics Offensive Rank: 22nd in the NFL Points per Game: 21.5 Yards per Game: 350.2 Turnover Differential: -3 Injury Report Jonathan Taylor: Questionable due to ankle issues No other significant injuries reported
11-24-24	Cowboys v. Commanders -10.5	Top	34-26	Loss	-111	5 h 8 m	Show
Commanders vs Cowboys 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 10.5-point road favorites. From the Predictive Model: The model is projecting that the Commanders will score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. The Cowboys are 2-14 SUATS when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers since 2021. The Commanders are 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played since 2021. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 53-64 SU (45%) and a 74-43-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team except the Jets. The game is a divisional matchup. The team did not win a single game against a divisional foe in the previous season. If our team is priced between pick-em, and a four-point dog, they have gone 21-16 and 26-11 ATS good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 38-2 SU (95%) and a 30-8-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on double-digit favorites. They are facing a foe that has won between 25 and 40% of their games. The foe is on a two or more-game losing streak. The gane occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season, If the game is a divisional matchup, these big favorites have gone 22-2 SU (92%) and 19-4-1 ATS good for 83% winning bets. Dallas Cowboys: Overall Record: 3-7 Points Per Game: 16.2 Total Offense: 5th (365.3 YPG) Passing Offense: 7th (252.1 YPG) Rushing Offense: 22nd (113.2 YPG) Total Defense: 24th (375.4 YPG) Passing Defense: 28th (268.7 YPG) Rushing Defense: 18th (106.7 YPG) Washington Commanders: Overall Record: 7-4 Points Per Game: 28.0 Total Offense: 6th (366.7 YPG) Passing Offense: 15th (218.7 YPG) Rushing Offense: 6th (148.0 YPG) Total Defense: 18th (334.8 YPG) Passing Defense: 20th (252.3 YPG) Rushing Defense: 14th (82.5 YPG) Key Player Performances Dallas Cowboys: QB Cooper Rush: 1,978 passing yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs RB Rico Dowdle: 402 rushing yards, 2 TDs WR CeeDee Lamb: 774 receiving yards, 4 TDs LB Eric Kendricks: 87 tackles DE DeMarvion Overshown: 4 sacks Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels: 2,338 passing yards, 10 TDs, 7 INTs RB Brian Robinson Jr.: 524 rushing yards, 7 TDs WR Terry McLaurin: 721 receiving yards, 6 TDs LB Bobby Wagner: 91 tackles DE Dante Fowler Jr.: 8.5 sacks Injury Reports Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb: Questionable (Hamstring) Zack Martin: Out (Ankle) Tyler Smith: Questionable (Knee) Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson Jr.: Probable (Ankle) Austin Ekeler: Questionable (Hamstring) Jeremy McNichols: Out (Concussion)
11-18-24	Texans -7 v. Cowboys	Top	34-10	Win	100	34 h 48 m	Show
Texans vs Cowboys 8:20 ET, Monday \| AT&T Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Texans priced as 7.5-point favorites. The following betting algorithm has produced a 72-37 SU and 69-37-3 ATS result good for 65.1% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that have won 60 or more of their games. That team is coming off a home loss. The game occurs from game number 10 on out to the end of the season. If our team is on the road in this matchup, they have gone 45-29 SU and 48-24-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. If our team is priced as a road favorite, they have gone 29-9 SU and 25-11-2 ATS good for 69.4% winning bets. From the Predictive model we are expecting the Texans to hold Dallas to 18 or fewer points and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past home games, the Cowboys are 19-60 SU and 14-63-2 ATS for 18% winning bets since 1989 and 0-5 SUATS since 2021. The Cowboys are 1-15 SU and 1-14-1 ATS when scoring 18 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers in home games spanning the past 10 seasons.
11-17-24	Seahawks +6 v. 49ers	Top	20-17	Win	100	6 h 40 m	Show
Seahawks vs 49ers 4:05 ET 8-Unit bet on the Seahawks priced as 6.5-point underdogs. The following betting algorithm has produced a 21-30 SU and 33-15-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3 and 9.5 points. That road team is coming off a loss. In that loss they committed three or more turnovers. They played Under their team total in their previous game. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. If the game is a divisional matchup these dogs have gone 11-11 SU and 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. The clincher: If this game is taking place from week 10 on out, they have gone 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets.
11-17-24	Ravens v. Steelers +3	Top	16-18	Win	100	3 h 35 m	Show
Ravens vs Steelers 1 ET Sunday \| 8-Unit Bet on the Steelers priced as 3-point underdogs. The Steelers were my preseason ‘wins’ total bet and with one more win will be a cashed ticket. They are rolling beyond my most positive expectations with a 7-2 SUATS ledger and as always has been the case under head coach Mike Tomlin they are getting zero respect. The Steelers’ defense is one of the best if not the best in the NFL, but their total record in their games is 5-4 to the Over. This reflects that their offense is also performing better with each passing week. Tomlin made a controversial decision to go with the veteran Russell Wilson, who is playing superior football. From the trusted and omnipotent data base we learn that veteran QBs playing in their first season with a different team are 42-70 SU and a stellar 64-43-4 ATS for 60% winning bets since 2006. The Ravens are a different team this season. NFL fans and bettors think of the Ravens under John Harbaugh featuring a tough-minded and very physical defense. However, this season sees the defense struggling and largely inconsistent week-to-week. They rank 25 allowing 25.2 PPG, 23rd in opponent points per play, and a horrid 30th allowing 47% conversions on third down. The Ravens had made up for the defensive struggles sporting the best offense in the NFL that averages 31.8 PPG and averages 440 YPG, and 7.1 yards-per-play. Steelers defense ranks second allowing 16.2 PPG, 2nd posting a 0.275 points per play ratio, and third posting a 44% opponent red zone scoring percentage. In games in which the combined average scoring of each team is greater than the posted total and both teams having wo 70% or more of their games in a divisional matchup, the home dog priced up to 4.5 points has gone 16-14-1 SU and 19-12 ATS for 61.3% winning bets. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS for 63% winning bets in home games with a total of 47.5 or more points. The clincher is that Tomlin is 17-7 SUATS in home games priced between a 3-point favorite and 3-point dog with a total of 47.5 or more points. Rams vs Patriots 1 ET \| FOX 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots priced as a 4-point home underdog. The Rams may be caught looking ahead to the huge showdown against the Eagles next Sunday. The Patriot's record is not reflecting the advances they have made on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. The following betting algorithm has produced a 25-30 SU and 38-16-1 ATS mark good for 70.4% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home dogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs from week 4 on out to the end of the season. The dog allowed a strong 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt in their previous game. The opponent’s defense has struggled allowing 64% or higher pass completion percentage.
11-17-24	Packers -5 v. Bears	Top	20-19	Loss	-108	3 h 35 m	Show
Packers vs Bears 1:00 ET \| Soldier Field 5-Unit Bet Under the posted total currently priced as 40.5 points. 8-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 6-point favorites. The following betting algorithm has produced a 40-21 Under result good for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet the Under in a divisional matchup. The home team is priced as a dog between 2 and 9.5 points. The road team is coming off a home loss. If the total is priced at 42.5 or fewer points the Under has gone 17-5 for 77% winning bets. The following betting algorithm has produced a 33-11 good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games. That road team is coming off a home loss. The game occurs from week 10 on out to the end of the season. The following betting algorithm has produced a 43-9 SU and 35-13-4 result good for 73% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road favorites. The favorite has been priced as a favorite in 5 or more of their previous 6 games. It is a divisional matchup. The favorite defeated the current opponent in their last meeting.
11-17-24	Jaguars +14 v. Lions	Top	6-52	Loss	-112	3 h 34 m	Show
Jaguars vs Lions 1 ET 8-Unit Bet on the Jaguars priced as 13.5-point underdogs. The following betting algorithm has produced a 19-41 SU and 38-19-3 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs of 2.5 or more points. The dog is coming off a loss in which they committed two ro more turnovers. The total is priced between 44.5 and 50 points. The dog played Under their team total by more than 2 points in that loss. If the opponent has won 80% or more of their games, these ugly flea-infested dogs have gone 8-11 SU and 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets.
11-17-24	Raiders +7.5 v. Dolphins	Top	19-34	Loss	-105	3 h 34 m	Show
Raiders vs Dolphins 1 ET 8-Unit bet on the Raiders priced as 7.5-point underdogs. The following betting algorithm has produced a 22-24 SU and 32-11-3 ATS good for 74.4% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams coming off a road loss. They are playing on a turf surface. In their previous two games they had the ball for fewer than 29 minutes in each. They are facing a non-divisional foe. If our team is the underdog, they have gone an amazing 16-18 SU and 28-4-2 ATS good for 88% winning bets.
11-14-24	Commanders +3 v. Eagles	Top	18-26	Loss	-100	78 h 44 m	Show
Commanders vs Eagles 8:15 ET \| Prime Video \| Thursday 8-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as a 3-point road underdog. The first betting algorithm: The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 53-64 SU (45%) and a 74-43-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team except the Jets (I am serious) The game is a divisional matchup. The team did not win a single game against a divisional foe. If our team is priced between pick-em, and a four-point dog, they have gone 21-16 and 26-11 ATS good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The second betting algorithm: The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-29 SU (48%) and a 34-19-3 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between pick-em and a 6.5-point underdog. That team won five or fewer games in their previous season. The game is played on Thursday or Monday Night prime time stage. The Third Betting Algorithm: The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 26-27 SU (49%) and a 36-15-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs priced between 3 and 7.5 points. The dog has scored in 11 of their previous 12 quarters. The opponent has gained a total of 800 or more yards in their last two games. Team Overview Washington Commanders: 7-3 Philadelphia Eagles: 7-2 Recent Trends Commanders: Coming off a tough 28-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a 7-0-1 ATS run but failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite1. The Over has hit in 2 straight games. Eagles: Won 4 straight games, including a dominant 34-6 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. They have covered as a favorite in 3 of their last 4 games1. Offensive Statistics Commanders: Points per game: 24.5 (15th in NFL) Total yards per game: 350.2 (18th in NFL) Passing yards per game: 250.1 (14th in NFL) Rushing yards per game: 100.1 (24th in NFL) Eagles: Points per game: 28.3 (7th in NFL) Total yards per game: 375.4 (10th in NFL) Passing yards per game: 260.2 (9th in NFL) Rushing yards per game: 115.2 (16th in NFL) Defensive Statistics Commanders: Points allowed per game: 21.1 (12th in NFL) Total yards allowed per game: 340.3 (13th in NFL) Passing yards allowed per game: 220.5 (10th in NFL) Rushing yards allowed per game: 119.8 (23rd in NFL) Eagles: Points allowed per game: 18.9 (4th in NFL) Total yards allowed per game: 310.2 (6th in NFL) Passing yards allowed per game: 200.1 (3rd in NFL) Rushing yards allowed per game: 110.1 (12th in NFL) Player Injuries and Status Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson Jr. (RB): Hamstring injury, OUT Marshon Lattimore (CB): Hamstring injury, OUT Cornelius Lucas (OT): Ankle injury, OUT Austin Seibert (K): Hip injury, QUESTIONABLE Tyler Biadasz (C): Thumb injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Jayden Daniels (QB): Rib injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Brandon Coleman (T): Concussion, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Clelin Ferrell (DE): Knee injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Frankie Luvu (LB): Shin injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Terry McLaurin (WR): Ankle injury, FULL PARTICIPATION Olamide Zaccheaus (WR): Hamstring injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (QB): Knee injury, FULL PARTICIPATION A.J. Brown (WR): Shoulder injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Dallas Goedert (TE): Ankle injury, QUESTIONABLE Jordan Davis (DT): Elbow injury, LIMITED PARTICIPATION Darius Slay (CB): Groin injury, FULL PARTICIPATION Key Matchups to Watch Commanders' Rushing Attack vs. Eagles' Run Defense: With Brian Robinson Jr. out, the Commanders will rely on Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. The Eagles' run defense, allowing 110.1 yards per game, will be tested1. Eagles' Passing Attack vs. Commanders' Pass Defense: The Eagles' passing game, averaging 260.2 yards per game, will face a Commanders' pass defense that allows 220.5 yards per game
11-11-24	Dolphins +2 v. Rams	Top	23-15	Win	100	35 h 34 m	Show
Dolphins vs Rams 8:15 ET Monday Week 10 8-Unit bet on the Dolphins priced as a 1.5-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 13-24 SU record and a 28-8-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 2000. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on road teams. The road team is coming off a road loss. The game occurs in November and December. The road team has ow fewer than 33% of their games. The host is coming off a win. The game is a non-divisional matchup. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-11 SU record and a 24-8 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets since 2000. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on road teams in November priced between a 3.5-point dog and a 3.5-point favorite. They are coming off a loss and failed to cover the spread. Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams: Week 10 Preview Injuries and Player Status Miami Dolphins: Defensive Tackle Zach Sieler (eye) - Out Cornerback Kader Kohou (knee) - Out Safety Jevon Holland (knee) - Out Safety Patrick McMorris (knee) - Questionable Linebacker Bradley Chubb (knee) - Questionable Los Angeles Rams: Offensive Tackle Rob Havenstein (knee) - Out Guard Steve Avila (knee) - Questionable Guard Jonah Jackson (knee) - Questionable Wide Receiver Puka Nacua (knee) - Questionable Offensive Statistics Miami Dolphins: Points per Game: 27.0 Total Yards per Game: 375.2 Passing Yards per Game: 245.1 Rushing Yards per Game: 130.1 Los Angeles Rams: Points per Game: 24.8 Total Yards per Game: 360.5 Passing Yards per Game: 230.3 Rushing Yards per Game: 130.2 Defensive Statistics Miami Dolphins: Points Allowed per Game: 26.5 Total Yards Allowed per Game: 350.3 Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 220.1 Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 130.2 Los Angeles Rams: Points Allowed per Game: 24.0 Total Yards Allowed per Game: 340.0 Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 210.0 Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 130.0 Recent Team Trends Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have shown significant improvement since the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. They have scored on two-thirds of their possessions and produced 3.6 points per drive1. De'Von Achane has been a standout, leading the team in receptions and yards from scrimmage over the last two games. Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have won three straight
11-10-24	Lions v. Texans +4	Top	26-23	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
Lions vs Texans 8:20 ET \| 8-Unit bet on the Texans priced as a 3.5-point home dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 8-11 SU record and a 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2020. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent has covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last four games. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-40 SU record and a 47-20-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for this highly profitable system are: Bet on dogs of three or more points. The dog was also priced as a dog in their last game. They gained fewer than 400 total yards in their last game. They had three or more thirddown failures than their previous opponent. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 49-25 SU record and a 49-24-2 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2018. The requirements for this highly profitable system are: Bet on any team priced between a 3.5-point dog and 3.5-popint favorite. The opponent allowed 14 or fewer points oi each of their last 2 games. Our team is coming off a game in which they had five dropped passes.
11-10-24	Eagles v. Cowboys +7.5	Top	34-6	Loss	-115	7 h 46 m	Show
Eagles vs Cowboys 4:25 ET 8-Unit bet on the Cowboys priced as 7-point home underdogs. In the NFL any team can appear to be one of the worst and then in the next week appear to be a playoff contender. Conceptually, this is a risky bet but just one bet and it is the contrarian situation that wins far more than it loses. In the Circa Millions Contest I have seen this time and time again when the opening line for these games in the second half of the season is 7 or more points different during game week. I have assembled a database with every pick made by every entry (about 16,000 picks per week since the Circa Millions started) and I am not getting some valuable and profitable betting intelligence from the data. That does not mean the Cowboys will cover and possibly shock the NFL betting community but again, if you bet these plays you have a great opportunity to make a significant profit. The Cowboy's defense has been horrid, especially in their three home games this season. However, teams that have allowed 34 or more poinst in theri previous three home games and currently hosting a game priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point dog and facing a divisional foe have gone 7-11 SU and 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets; if they allowed 35 or more points over their last three games these unsuspecting dogs have gone 5-4 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS! Regardless of if the current game is home or away, these teams have gone 11-7-1 SU and 16-2-1 ATS for 89% winning bets.
11-10-24	Falcons v. Saints +3.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	3 h 22 m	Show
Falcons vs Saints 1 ET \| 5-Unit bet on the Saints priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 16-14 SU record and a 19-9-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on home teams priced between a 3.5-point dog and a 3.5-point favorite. They are facing a divisional foe. They are on a 7 or more-game losing streak. If the total is priced at 42.5 or more points these home teams have gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS good for 78% winning bets. The New Orleans Saints (2-7) host their divisional rival, the Atlanta Falcons (6-3), at the Caesars Superdome for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on Sunday, November 10th at noon CT. This game marks the debut of Darren Rizzi as the Saints' interim head coach. Player Injuries and Status New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (WR): Out with a concussion. Alvin Kamara (RB): Expected to start and play a major role. Taysom Hill (TE): Questionable with a minor injury. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London (WR): Questionable with a hamstring issue. Bijan Robinson (RB): Expected to start. Kyle Pitts (TE): Expected to start. Offensive and Defensive Statistics New Orleans Saints: Offensive Stats: The Saints have struggled offensively, averaging 18.2 points per game. Alvin Kamara leads the team with 232 rushing yards and 77.3 yards per game over the last three games. Defensive Stats: The Saints' defense has been relatively solid, allowing 24.5 points per game. Alontae Taylor has been a standout with 14 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and five passes defended in the last three games. Atlanta Falcons: Offensive Stats: The Falcons have been more productive, averaging 27.3 points per game. Bijan Robinson has been impressive with 252 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry over the last three games. Defensive Stats: The Falcons' defense has allowed 21.2 points per game. Elliss has contributed with one sack, two TFL, and 34 tackles in the last three games. Recent Team Trends New Orleans Saints: The Saints have had a tough season, losing seven of their first nine games. They recently fired head coach Dennis Allen and appointed Darren Rizzi as the interim head coach2. The team is looking to turn things around and make a statement against their divisional rival. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have been on a roll, winning five of their last six games after a slow start to the season. They are coming off a 27-21 victory over the Dallas Cowboys and are looking to solidify their lead in the NFC South.
11-10-24	Steelers +2.5 v. Commanders	Top	28-27	Win	100	3 h 21 m	Show
Steelers vs Commanders 1 ET \| 8-Unit bet on the Steelers priced as 3-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 26-27 SU record and a 36-15-2 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 1989. The requirements for this rare and highly profitable system are: Bet on any team (Steelers) that has scored in 11 of their last 12 quarters. That team is priced as a 3 to 7.5-point dog. The opponent has gained 800 or more total yards over their last two games. If not in a conference matchup these dogs have gone 8-7 SU and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets.
11-03-24	Lions v. Packers +3	Top	24-14	Loss	-102	5 h 11 m	Show
Lions vs Packers 4:35 ET \| Lambeau Field 8-Unit bet on the Packers priced as 3.5-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 8-11 (39%) and 14-5 ATS good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The favorite has covered the spread by 60 or more points spanning their previous four games. Here is a situational angle supporting the bet on the Packers. Teams that have covered the spread buy 60 or more points over their previous four games and are scoring between 3 and 7 more PPG than the current foe have gone 22-15 SU (60%) and 13-23-1 ATS for 34%. Vikings vs. Packers: Week 4 Preview The Minnesota Vikings (3-0) are set to face the Green Bay Packers (2-1) this Sunday in what promises to be an exciting divisional rivalry game. The Vikings have started the season strong, with impressive wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans2. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been a standout performer, leading the NFL with eight touchdown passes and boasting a passer rating of 117.3. On the other side, the Packers have had a bit of a rocky start but managed to secure back-to-back wins with Malik Willis stepping in for the injured Jordan Love. The Packers will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage at Lambeau Field and bounce back from their loss to the Vikings earlier this season. Key Players to Watch Vikings: Sam Darnold (QB), Jonathan Greenard (DE), and Justin Jefferson (WR) Packers: Malik Willis (QB), Aaron Jones (RB), and Jaire Alexander (CB) Historical Context The Packers and Vikings have a storied rivalry that dates to 1961. The Packers lead the all-time series 66-59-3, but the Vikings have had their moments, including a memorable win in the 2004 NFC Wild Card game. Expected Value Metrics Vikings' Offense: The Vikings are averaging 4.8 yards per carry and have a strong offensive line with tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. Packers' Defense: The Packers have been solid against the run, allowing only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt. Turnover Differential: The Vikings rank sixth in the NFL with a turnover differential of +2.
11-03-24	Jaguars +7.5 v. Eagles	Top	23-28	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
Jaguars vs Eagles 4:05 ET \| Lincoln Financial Field 5-Unit bet on the Jaguars priced as 7.5-point dogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 8-11 (39%) and 14-5 ATS good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that are allowing 28 or ore PPG. They are priced as road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points. If the game occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season, they have gone 18-30 SU (35-11-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Jacksonville Jaguars: Record: 2-6 Key Player: QB Trevor Lawrence Offensive Strength: Lawrence has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. He's also added 105 rushing yards2. Defensive Strength: LB Ventrell Miller has been a standout, making significant contributions to the team's defense. Philadelphia Eagles: Record: 5-2 Key Player: QB Jalen Hurts Offensive Strength: The Eagles have been on a roll, winning three straight games. Hurts has been instrumental, showcasing his dual-threat capabilities2. Defensive Strength: Despite injuries, the Eagles have shown great depth. CB Isaiah Rodgers has stepped up, making key plays2. Expected Value Metrics Jaguars' Expected Points Added (EPA): 0.02 (Rank: 24th) Eagles' EPA: 0.15 (Rank: 6th) Jaguars' Success Rate: 45% (Rank: 22nd) Eagles' Success Rate: 52% (Rank: 10th) Key Matchups Jaguars' Run Game vs. Eagles' Run Defense: The Jaguars will need to control the game with an efficient run game. Winning at the line of scrimmage and time of possession will be crucial1. Trevor Lawrence vs. Eagles' Defense: Lawrence's mobility and ability to make every throw will be tested by the Eagles' defense, which has been solid despite injuries. Storylines Injuries: Both teams are dealing with injuries. The Eagles will be without left tackle Jordan Mailata and tight end Dallas Goedert, while the Jaguars will miss left guard Ezra Cleveland and wide receiver Christian Kirk2. Special Weekend for Eagles: The Eagles will wear their iconic Kelly Green jerseys and induct former running back LeSean McCoy into their Hall of Fame at halftime.
11-03-24	Dolphins +6 v. Bills	Top	27-30	Win	100	2 h 45 m	Show
Dolphins vs Bills 1 ET \| 8-Unit bet on the Dolphins priced as 6-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-29 SU (43%) and 34-16-1 ATS good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs facing a divisional foe for the second time in the same season. In the first matchup, our dog gained 6 or more yards after the completion. If our team is priced between a 3.5 and 9.5-poit underdog they have gone 12-15 SU and 18-9 ATS for 67% winners. write a preview for the Dolphins vs Bills NFL football game taking place this Sunday. Include any pertinent statistics and analytics and who the stars are for each team and how they have done this season. How has this divisional rivalry done over the years and please include Expected Value metrics Dolphins vs. Bills: Week 9 Preview The Miami Dolphins (2-5) travel to Buffalo to face the Bills (6-2) this Sunday in a highly anticipated divisional matchup. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium. Team Performance and Key Players Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen has been stellar this season, boasting a 17:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 116.7. He's thrown for 1,766 yards and 14 touchdowns. James Cook has been a force in the backfield, rushing for 452 yards and seven touchdowns. Khalil Shakir has been a reliable target, with 21 receptions for 396 yards and three touchdowns. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury last week, throwing for 234 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. De'Von Achane has been a bright spot, totaling 357 rushing yards and one touchdown. Tyreek Hill has been consistent, with 366 receiving yards and one touchdown. Divisional Rivalry History The Bills have dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning 12 of the last 13 matchups against the Dolphins. Buffalo has also won five straight games at home against Miami. The Dolphins have struggled on the road in Buffalo, losing eight consecutive games there. Expected Value Metrics The Bills are favored by 6.5 points, with an over/under of 49.5 points. The Bills' Expected Value (EV) metrics are strong, with a +84 point differential and a +11 turnover margin5. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have an EV of -225 points in their last 17 games in Buffalo.
11-03-24	Commanders -4 v. Giants	Top	27-22	Win	100	2 h 44 m	Show
Commanders vs Giants 1 ET \| 5-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as four-point favorites. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 52-64 SU (45%) and 73-43-2 ATS good for 63% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team that failed to win one game against a divisional foe in the previous season. The game is a divisional showdown. The team is not the Jets (I am not kidding) The Washington Commanders (6-2) are set to face the New York Giants (2-6) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. This game marks the second meeting between these NFC East rivals this season, with the Commanders winning the first matchup 21-18 in Week 2. Commanders' Key Players and Stats Jayden Daniels (QB): The rookie quarterback has been a standout, leading the Commanders to at least 20 points in seven of their eight games. He has completed 71.8% of his passes and thrown for 326 yards in his last game against the Chicago Bears. Brian Robinson Jr. (RB): Robinson has rushed for 461 yards and six touchdowns this season. He ran for a career-best 133 yards in the first game against the Giants. Defense: The Commanders' defense ranks No. 11 in points allowed and No. 13 in yards allowed. They have been particularly strong on third down, holding opponents to a low conversion rate. Giants' Key Players and Stats Daniel Jones (QB): Jones has had an up-and-down season, struggling to find consistency. The Giants' offense ranks No. 31 in scoring and No. 23 in yards gained. Dexter Lawrence (DT): Lawrence leads the league with nine sacks and has been a key player on the defensive line. Azeez Ojulari (OLB): Ojulari has five sacks in the last three games and has been a significant threat to opposing quarterbacks. Divisional Rivalry History The Commanders and Giants have a long-standing rivalry, with the Giants winning three of the last four meetings. However, the Commanders are looking to sweep the Giants for the first time since 2011. Injuries and Playing Status Commanders: Rookie LT Brandon Coleman is expected to return from a concussion, while veteran LT Cornelius Lucas is out with a left ankle injury. QB Jayden Daniels is dealing with sore ribs but is expected to play. Giants: Kicker Greg Joseph (abdomen) and P Jamie Gillan (hamstring) are out, and rookie Jude McAtamney may be elevated off the practice squad to kick. RB Tyrone Tracy has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play, as is CB Cor'Dale Flott, who missed the last game with a groin injury. LB Ty Summers (ankle) is questionable.
11-03-24	Saints v. Panthers +7	Top	22-23	Win	100	2 h 43 m	Show
Saints vs Panthers 1 ET 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 7-point underdogs. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 21-28 SU (43%) and 35-13-1 ATS good for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs coming off a non-divisional game. They had fewer than 18 first downs in their previous game. They lost the last game by more than 7 points. They are facing a divisional foe. In the previous matchup our dog gained more than 150 passing yards. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-35 SU (43%) and 50-20-1 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points spanning their previous five games. The opponent has seen their last three games play Over the total by 33 or more points. The New Orleans Saints (2-6) are set to face the Carolina Panthers (1-7) this Sunday in a crucial Week 9 matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Team Performance New Orleans Saints: The Saints have struggled this season, losing six straight games. Their offense has been hampered by injuries, most notably to quarterback Derek Carr, who has been sidelined with a left oblique strain since Week 51. Carr is expected to return this Sunday, which could provide a much-needed boost to the Saints' offense. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have had an even tougher season, with only one win so far. They are coming off a 28-14 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 81. Quarterback Bryce Young will start for the Panthers after Andy Dalton suffered a sprained thumb in a minor car accident. Key Players Saints: Derek Carr (QB) - Carr has been out for three games but is expected to play this Sunday. His return could be a game-changer for the Saints. Panthers: Bryce Young (QB) - Young will make his second consecutive start after Dalton's injury. He has shown flashes of potential but has struggled with consistency. Divisional Rivalry The Saints and Panthers have had an interesting divisional rivalry over the years. The Saints won their first meeting of the season, defeating the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1. However, both teams have struggled since then, and this game will be a chance for the Saints to assert their dominance once again. Injuries and Playing Status Saints: Derek Carr (QB) - Expected to play after recovering from an oblique strain. Rashid Shaheed (WR) - Out for the season. Panthers: Andy Dalton (QB) - Out with a sprained thumb. Bryce Young (QB) - Expected to start.
11-03-24	Patriots +3.5 v. Titans	Top	17-20	Win	100	2 h 43 m	Show
Patriots vs Titans 1 ET \| Nissan Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as a 3.5-point road underdog. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 10-3 SU (77%) and a perfect 13-0 ATS ATS good for 100% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams facing a conference foe. That foe lost their previous game by 28 or more points. That is foe is priced between pick-em and a 6.5-point favorite. The total is 46 or fewer points. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 51-51 (50%) and 66-33-3 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against home favorites coming off at least one consecutive loss. The previous loss was on the road. The game occurs in the first nine weeks of the season. The opponent has an average offense as reflected by their 15 or greater yards per point ratio. If the home favorite is priced between pick-em and –3.5 points fading them has produced a 37-19 SU (66%) and 39-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets. The New England Patriots (2-6) travel to Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans (1-6) this Sunday in a matchup of struggling teams. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET, with the Titans favored by 3 points1. Team Performance Patriots: Coming off a narrow 25-22 victory over the New York Jets, the Patriots have shown resilience despite their overall struggles this season. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has been impressive, is questionable due to a concussion, and veteran Jacoby Brissett may start1. Titans: Tennessee is reeling from a 52-14 loss to the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Will Levis is also questionable with a shoulder injury, and Mason Rudolph may get another start1. Key Players Patriots: Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bright spot, scoring five touchdowns this season. Tight end Hunter Henry leads the team with 358 yards on 32 receptions1. Titans: Running back Tony Pollard has rushed for 494 yards and three touchdowns, while wide receiver Calvin Ridley has 326 yards on 22 catches. Divisional Rivalry The Patriots and Titans have a storied history, dating back to their AFL days. The Patriots dominated the rivalry from 2003-2018, winning seven straight games, but the Titans have won two of the last three matchups2. Tennessee also won a wild-card playoff game against New England after the 2019 season. Injuries and Playing Status Patriots: Maye (concussion), T Vederian Lowe (ankle/shoulder), LB Christian Elliss (abdomen), and WR Ja’Lynn Polk (concussion) are all questionable. Titans: Levis (shoulder), CB L’Jarius Sneed (quadriceps), RB Tyjae Spears (hamstring), and OL Andrew Rupcich (triceps) are out.
11-03-24	Broncos +9 v. Ravens	Top	10-41	Loss	-108	2 h 41 m	Show
Broncos vs Ravens 1 ET \| M&T Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Broncos priced as 9.5-point underdogs and worth a little extra sprinkle on the money line. This NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-31 SU (39%) and 33-15-3 ATS good for 69% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs. The favorite has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their previous three games. The favorite has outgained their foes by 50 or more total yards. If our dog has a winning record on the season, they have soared to a 18-7-3 ATS mark for 72% winning bets. Over the past 10 seasons. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 51-51 (50%) and 66-33-3 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against home favorites coming off at least one consecutive loss. The previous loss was on the road. The game occurs in the first nine weeks of the season. The opponent has an average offense as reflected by their 15 or greater yards per point ratio. If the home favorite is pried between pick-em and –3.5 points fading them has produced a 37-19 SU (66%) and 39-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets.
10-31-24	Texans +2.5 v. Jets	Top	13-21	Loss	-110	31 h 23 m	Show
Texans vs Jets 8:15 ET \| Prime Video \| MetLife Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Texans priced as a 1.5-point underdog. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 31-19 (62%) and 30-16-4 ATS good for 65% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against teams that have won 25% or fewer of their games. That team has lost two consecutive games on the road. The game occurs from week 4 to the end of the season. The total is between 37.5 and 42.5 points. If the foe has won 60% of or more of their games has seen these teams improve to a remarkable 7-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS for 80% winning bets. Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 51-51 (50%) and 66-33-3 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against home favorites coming off at least one consecutive loss. The previous loss was on the road. The game occurs in the first nine weeks of the season. The opponent has an average offense as reflected by their 15 or greater yards per point ratio. If the home favorite is pried between pick-em and –3.5 points fading them has produced a 37-19 SU (66%) and 39-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets. The Houston Texans (6-2) will face the New York Jets (2-6) in a Thursday Night Football matchup at MetLife Stadium on October 31, 2024. The Texans are coming off a narrow 23-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Jets are reeling from a 25-22 loss to the New England Patriots. Season Records and ATS Results Houston Texans: 6-2 overall, 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS) New York Jets: 2-6 overall, 0-5 ATS in their last five games Previous Game Results Texans: Won 23-20 against the Colts Jets: Lost 25-22 to the Patriots Key Players to Watch Texans: QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,948 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. RB Joe Mixon has been a standout, rushing for 503 yards and five touchdowns. Jets: QB Aaron Rodgers has passed for 1,896 yards and 12 touchdowns, but also seven interceptions. WR Garrett Wilson has been a reliable target with 573 yards and three touchdowns. Analytics and Predictions The Jets are slight favorites by 1.5 points. The over/under for total points scored is set at 42.5. SportsLine's model predicts a close game, with the Texans winning 25-18. Playoff Chances Texans: With a strong start to the season, the Texans are in a good position to make the playoffs, currently holding a two-game lead atop the AFC South. Jets: The Jets are struggling and would need a significant turnaround to have a shot at the playoffs, currently tied for third in the AFC East. This game will be crucial for both teams, especially for the Jets, who are looking to end their five-game losing streak, but based on my extensive research it appears the losing streak will reach six games.
10-27-24	Falcons v. Bucs +1.5	Top	31-26	Loss	-108	2 h 50 m	Show
Falcons vs Bucs 1:00 ET \| FOX \| Raymond James Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Bucs priced as 2.5-point home dogs. The Bucs are coming off a tough loss to the Ravens Monday after gaining nearly 500 total offensive yards but allowing over 500 total yards and 5 TDs by Lamar Jackson. However, the news is good for the Bucs to be capable of shaking off the home loss and focusing on the current divisional foe, the Atlanta Falcons. This matchup is for first place in the NFC South where 10 wins may be enough to win it. Teams coming off a loss in which they gained 450 or more total yards and hosting the next game have gone 23-12 SU (66%) and 22-11-2 ATS (67%) since 1989; 7-3 ATS if facing a divisional foe.
10-27-24	Jets v. Patriots +7	Top	22-25	Win	100	2 h 49 m	Show
Jets vs Patriots 1 ET \| Gillett Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as 7-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-27 SU and 32-16 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs in a divisional matchup. The dog did throw for more than 100 yards in the previousmeeting. The dog is coming off a loss of 7 or more points to a divisional foe. In that loss they had fewer than 20 first downs.
10-27-24	Ravens v. Browns +7.5	Top	24-29	Win	100	2 h 48 m	Show
Ravens vs Browns 1 ET \| Huntington Bank Field 8-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 7.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 39-19 Under record good for 67% winning bets since 1999. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. That dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. That dog is outscored by more than 6 PPG in the first half action. If the game occurs from week 5 on out, these dogs with fleas have performed well going 3-5 SU and 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 39-57 SU and 56-29-1 ATS record good for 65.9% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: Bet on any team that has failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their previous five seasons. The opponent has covered the spread by 30 or more points over their previous three games. If a divisional matchup these dogs have gone 13-23 and 24-11-2 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2010.
10-21-24	Ravens v. Bucs +3.5	Top	41-31	Loss	-108	10 h 49 m	Show
Ravens vs Bucs 8:15 ET, Monday \| ESPN/ABC \| Raymond James Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Bucs priced as 3.5-point home underdogs. This NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-28 SU and 31-18-1 ATS good for 63% winning bets over the past 35 seasons and supports a 10-Unit bet on the Bucs. Bet on home dogs. The game occurs in the first nine weeks of the regular season. They are hosting an opponent that has scored in 15 or more quarters spanning their last four games. If facing a non-divisional foe, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. The second algorithm has produced a 26-26 SU and 36-14-2 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: Bet on a team that has scored 11 or more quarters spanning their last three games. They are priced asa 3 to 7.5-point dog. They are facing a foe that has gained 800 or more yards in their last two games in total. If they are facing a non-divisional foe they improve to a highly profitable 19-19 SU and 28-9-1 ATS good for 76% winning bets. From the predictive models: The Bucs are expected to score 24 or more points, have an edge in time of possession and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the past 5 seasons, the Bucs are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS good for 88% winning bets. They are 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS for 81% winning bets when they scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers. They are 23-4 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73%) when having the same or fewer turnovers and having an edge in time of possession.
10-20-24	Jets v. Steelers +2	Top	15-37	Win	100	11 h 21 m	Show
Jets vs Steelers 8:20 ET \| NBC/Peacock/Acrisure Stadium 8-UNIT bet on the Steelers priced as 2-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-18 SU (66%) and 34-16-3 good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs priced between 2 and 5.5 points. The dog has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. The favorite failed to force a turnover in their previous game. Here is a second NFL betting algorithm that has gone 22-25 SU and 29-16-2 ATS good for 64% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on a home underdog that made the playoffs in their previous season. Last year, that team won eight games by a margin of 7 or fewer points. Last year this home dog won 10 or more games.
10-20-24	Chiefs v. 49ers -1.5	Top	28-18	Loss	-110	7 h 25 m	Show
Chiefs vs 49ers 4:25 ET \| FOX \| Levi’s Stadium 8-Unit bet on the 49ers priced as 2-point home favorites. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 47-12 SU and 42-15-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe. They are facing a non-conference opponent. If this team was the loser in the previous Super Bowl, they gone 5-0 SU and ATS! From the predictive model: The model is projecting that the 49ers will score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and have the edge in time of possession. In past games in which the 49ers met these three performance measures has seen them go 25-0 SU and 23-2 ATS good for 92% winning bets; 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS if the game is played at home.
10-20-24	Panthers +10 v. Commanders	Top	7-40	Loss	-113	7 h 5 m	Show
Panthers vs Commanders 4:05 ET \| CBS \| Northwest Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 9.5-point dogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 37-58 SU (39%) and 67-26-2 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. That team allows 28 or more points per game. The game is a conference matchup. Here is a second NFL betting algorithm that has gone 49-50 SU and 64-32-3 ATS good for 67% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. Bet on road dogs. That dog struggles on offense as reflected by their 15 or great yards per pint ratio. The game occurs in the first 9 weeks of the season. The home team is on a one or more-game losing streak. The home tea is coming off a road loss.
10-20-24	Seahawks +3.5 v. Falcons	Top	34-14	Win	100	4 h 2 m	Show
Seahawks vs Falcons 1 ET \| FOX \| Mercedes-Benz Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Seahawks priced as three-point dogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-18 SU (66%) and 34-16-3 good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team priced between the 3’s. That team has lost three straight games to the spread. The opponent has covered the spread in each of their last two games.
10-20-24	Eagles v. Giants +3	Top	28-3	Loss	-102	4 h 1 m	Show
Eagles vs Giants 1 ET \| FOX \| MetLife Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Giants priced as 3-point dogs The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-18 SU (66%) and 34-16-3 good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on dogs priced between 2 and 5.5 points. The dog has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. The favorite failed to force a turnover in their previousgame. Nabers is starting for the Giants and he creates all kinds of coverage problems for the Eagles defense that will limit the pressure and blitzes they can call.
10-13-24	Falcons v. Panthers +6		38-20	Loss	-108	51 h 13 m	Show
Falcons vs Panthers 4:25 ET \| FOX \| Bank of America Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Panthers priced as 6-point home underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-32 SU (40%) and 35-16-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game. The dog is outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half. If our dog is outscored by double-digits in the first half of action they have gone 8-12 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
10-13-24	Commanders +6.5 v. Ravens	Top	23-30	Loss	-100	48 h 49 m	Show
Commanders vs Ravens 1 EWT \| CBS \| M&T Bank Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 6.5-point underdogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7.5 units preflop and then look for the Ravens to score a TD first or two fields to take a 6-0 or greater lead or for the Ravens to retake the led during the first half and then add the 2.5 units using the spread. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 13-22 (38%) straight-up and 25-8-2 ATS for 76% over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on. Underdogs in a non-divisional matchup. The favorite has gained 450 or mor yards in each of their previous three games. The favorite has averaged 6 or more yards per play for the season. If our team is on the road, they have gone an incredible 8-13 SU and 15-4-2 ATS for 79% winning bets. From my predictive model: The projections call for the Commanders to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and gain at least 5.7 yards per play. In past home games in which the Ravens allowed these performance measures has seen them go just 7-9 SU and 3-12-1 ATS for 20% winning bets.
10-13-24	Colts +3 v. Titans	Top	20-17	Win	100	48 h 48 m	Show
Colts vs Titans 1 ET \| CBS \| Nissan Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Colts priced as 3-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-25 SU (47%) and 29-16-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 1 and 5.5 points. The dog had no more than one turnover in their previous game. The host is coming off a non-divisional game. The game is a divisional showdown. The road team has defeated the home team in each of their last two meetings. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 30-33 SU (47%) and 41-20-2 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between 2 and 7.5 points. The dog has passed for 7 or more yards per pass attempt in each of their last two games. The opponent’s defense held their previous opponent to 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt.
10-07-24	Saints v. Chiefs -5	Top	13-26	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
Saints vs Chiefs 8:15 ET \| ESPN/ABC 8-Unit Bet on the Chiefs priced as 5-point favorites. Monday Night Football undefeated teams have produced an exceptional record over many years. In fact, undefeated teams facing a non-divisional foe that are playing under the bright lights of MNF have gone 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS good for 72% winning bets since 1989. A slight variation of that theme creates one hihgly profitable betting algorithm supporting the Chiefs and has gone 53-14 SU (79%) and 47-16-4 ATS (75%) record over the past 25 seasons. Bet home teams playing on MNF. They have a winning percentage of 80 or better. Taking on a foe with a winning record or at 0.500 If the host has a perfect record, they have gone 36-10 SU and 33-11-2 ATS good for 75% winning bets. If our host pushed or covered the spread in their previousgame has produced an even better 31-6 SU and 29-7-1 ATS record good for 81% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.
10-06-24	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers	Top	24-23	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
Cardinals vs 49ers 4:05 ET \| Levis Stadium 8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals +7 points. 2-Units Under 28.5 points for the 49ers team total (Optional) If you do bet the 2-Unit Under total, then reduce the play on the Cardinals to 6-Units. The Cardinals are 1-3 on the season and are in dire need of a win to remain on the perimeter of the playoff contenders. This desperation is reflected in the data as 1-3 teams playing in week 5 that are coming off a loss and an ATS loss facing a divisional foe have gone 25-14 SU and 25-14 ATS since 1990. If our team is priced between pick and a 9.5-point underdog they have gone 11-9 SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 28-22 SU (56%) and 31-17-2 ATS (65%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team coming off an upset loss at home. They lost to the spread by double-digits in that loss. Their QB pressures percentage was 10% less than the opponent in that loss. The Cardinals had a 3.3% quarterback pressure percentage, and no team can win at the NFL level with such an anemic pass rush. The 10-UNIT game of the Month was last week and won by 31.5 points as the Commanders destroyed the Cardinals and the game got away from them early. So, the lack of pass rush was more impacted by the blowout scoring than anything else, noting the Cardinals did not blitz on one single play. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 10-9-1 SU (53%) and 16-4 ATS (80%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a team that lost every game against their divisional foes last season. They are facing a divisional foe. The game occurs in the first nine weeks (first half) of the NFL schedule.
10-06-24	Bills +1 v. Texans	Top	20-23	Loss	-107	3 h 16 m	Show
Bills vs Texans 1 ET \| NRG Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Bills priced as a 1-point dog. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-9 SU (70%) and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams facing a non-divisional foe. The road team is coming off a road loss priced as a dog. The road team allowed 10 or more points than their season average in their last game. The road team is priced between a 2.5-point dog and favorite. If our road is the dog and priced below 10 points and they are coming off a double-digit ATS loss they have gone 32-36 SU and 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1989.
10-03-24	Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons	Top	30-36	Loss	-105	5 h 14 m	Show
Bucs vs Falcons 8:15 ET \| Prime Video \| Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bucs priced as 2-point underdogs. The following betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 24-22 SU (52%) \| 30-15-1 ATS (67%). Bet on dogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The favorite had at least one turnover in their previous game. The game is a divisional showdown. The previous matchup our dog won and converted first downs on 20% or more of their plays The Falcons are 18-37 SU (33%) and 19-36 ATS (35%) when playing on 6 or fewer days of rest; 10-16 SU and 6-20 ATS (23%) when playing at home; 7-7 SU (50%) and 2-12 ATS (14%) when priced as a home favorite. From the Predictive Models: The Bucs offense is expected to gain 350 or more total yards and win the turnover battle. In past games since 2020, the Bucs are 18-1 SU (95%) and 15-4 ATS (79%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.
09-30-24	Titans +2.5 v. Dolphins	Top	31-12	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
Titans vs Dolphins MNF 7:30 ESPN \| Hard Rock Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Titans priced as 1-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Play on road teams that are winless on the season. The game occurs between weeks 3 and 6. The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 22-36 SU (38%) and 34-21-3 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-48 SU (34%) and 53-18-2 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs including pick-em. They are a struggling offense gaining an average of 265 or fewer yards per game. The game occurs from week 4 on to the end of the regular season. The host has a defense that allows between 265 and 295 yards per game. If the game is a non-divisional matchup our dogs have gone 12-27 SU (31) but an impressive 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets since 1989. Player Props for 1-Unit Tyjae Spears Over 28.5 rushing and receiving yards. De’Von Achane Under 96.5 rushing and receiving yards. Kenneth Walker Over 67.5 rushing and receiving yards.
09-29-24	Chiefs v. Chargers +7.5	Top	17-10	Win	100	29 h 40 m	Show
Chiefs vs Chargers. 4:25 ET \| CBS \| SoFi Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Chargers priced as 7.5-point underdogs The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-23 SU (47%) and a 31-12 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs facing a divisional foe. The dog is coming off a non-division game. The dog lost their previous game by 7 or more points. The dog had 19 or fewer first downs in their previous games.
09-29-24	Commanders +3.5 v. Cardinals	Top	42-14	Win	100	28 h 21 m	Show
Commanders vs Cardinals 4:05 ET \| State Farm Stadium 10-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 3.5-point dogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7.5-units preflop on the Commanders and then look to add 2.5-more units if Arizona takes a 6- or 7-point lead or retakes the lead in the first half of action. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 51-76 SU (40%) and 86-38-4 ATS record good for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. That dog allows 28 or more points per game. If the game is a conference matchup our road dog has gone 36-55 SUI (40%) and 65-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 28-28 SU (50%) and 40-15-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The host posted a losing record in the previous season. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. The road team averaged fewer passing yards than the current opponent in the previous season. The host was not in the playoffs last season. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-13 SU (61%) and a 23-9-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs. The host won 40% or fewer of their games in the previous season. The game occurs in weeks 2 through 4. The home team is coming off a loss. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-33 SU (45%) and a 39-20-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on conference dogs. The dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points. The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe. The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog.
09-29-24	Patriots +11 v. 49ers	Top	13-30	Loss	-110	28 h 19 m	Show
Patriots vs 49ers 4:05 ET \| Levis Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Patriots priced as 10.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-47 SU (45%) and a 53-25 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs. The dog is coming off a game with three or more failed third down attempts than their opponent. The dog gained less than 400 total yards of offense. The dog was priced as the dog in their previous game. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 54-53 SU (51%) and a 67-37-3 ATS record good for 665% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season. The opponent is coming off a road loss.
09-29-24	Eagles -1 v. Bucs		16-33	Loss	-108	25 h 24 m	Show
Eagles vs Bucs 1:00 ET \| Raymond James Stadium \| FOX 5-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles favored by 1.5 points. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-9 SU (74%) and 22-10-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won as a road underdog in their previous game. That team outgained their previous foe by 225 or more yards. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 43-39 SU (52%) and 50-30-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point underdog. The road team defeated the current opponent in their previous game. The road team is coming off a road game. The home team is coming off a home game. The Eagles are without their two top WR but they also were without them last week for the second half of action when they mounted their come from behind win despite their head coach trying to lock in the loss with ridiculous calls on 4th down. Look for Dotson to get more targets in this matchup and for Barkley to continue gashing defensive lines with his power running. The Eagles defense led by Jalen Carter last week played very well and that will carry over to this game too. From the predictive model: My predictive models are calling for the Eagles to win the turnover battle and gain at least 125 rushing yards and have more rushing yards than the Bucs. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to an 18-3 SU (86%) and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. 10-UNIT College Game of the Month goes Saturday night and Ryan's NFL 10-UNIT game of the month goes Sunday 3-0 with 10-Unit games of the month and 68% ATS over the past 5 seasons.
09-29-24	Jaguars +6 v. Texans	Top	20-24	Win	100	25 h 15 m	Show
Jaguars vs Texans 1 ET \| CBS \| NRG Stadium 8-Unit bet on the Jaguars priced as 6-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on winless road teams between weeks 3 and 6. They are priced between pick-em and 7,5-point dog. The dog lost their last game by double digits.
09-26-24	Cowboys v. Giants +5.5	Top	20-15	Win	100	7 h 46 m	Show
Cowboys vs Giants 8:15 ET 8-Unit bet on the Giants priced as 6-point home dogs and a little sprinkle on the money line. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-28 SU (47%) and a 37-16 ATS (70%) record over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs from week 4 on out. The dog has allowed a 64% opponent completion percentage. The dog is coming off a strong defensive game allowing 5.5 PYPA If our dog is coming off a road win, they soar to 12-5 ATS record for 71% winning bets. From the predictive model: The projections are calling for the Giants to have the same or fewer turnovers and average 4,7 yards per rush attempt. In past games which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 9-6 SU and 13-1-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons.
09-23-24	Commanders +7.5 v. Bengals	Top	38-33	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
Commanders vs Bengals 8:15 ET \| ABC/ESPN+ Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8-Unit bet on the Commanders priced as 7-point underdogs. Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on underdogs priced between 4.5 and 8 points. Non divisional matchup. Game occurs in Week 3 through Week 5. The favorite is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. The dog is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. Betting consensus is on the Bengals accounting for 77% of tickets bet and is the most popular pick in the Circa Eliminator contest for the second time in three weeks. Their loss to the Patriots in week 1 (we were on the Patriots) eliminated 36% of the 12,800 entries. So, for many reasons, I do see this game being a lot closer than most believe possible. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 46-44 SU (51%) and 57-30-3 ATS (66%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. That dog has posted a mediocre 15 or higher yards-per-point ratio. The game occurs in the first half of the season through week 9. The favorite is coming off a road loss and is on a one or more-game losing streak. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Commanders to establish the run and gain 125 or more rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in previousgames, they have gone 12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets.
09-23-24	Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills	Top	10-47	Loss	-108	5 h 2 m	Show
Jaguars vs Bills (Monday) Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY 7:30 ET \| ESPN \| Week 3 8-Unit bet on the Jaguars +5 points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line. Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Winless teams priced as 5.5 or greater underdogs are 11-22-1 SU but 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 22-35 SU and 34-20-3 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion and a QB rating of 95 or worse. The road team is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. Here is the third sports betting algorithm targeting a bet on the Jaguars and has gone 20-17 SU and 23-12-2 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on underdogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. The dog went Under their team points total. If our dog is on the road, they have gone 14-11 SU and 16-8-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Jaguars to gain 5.25 or more yards per play and commit the same or fewer turnovers. In past road games in which the Jaguars met these performance measures has seen them produce a highly profitable 31-25 SU and 38-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets.
09-22-24	Dolphins +4 v. Seahawks	Top	3-24	Loss	-108	5 h 55 m	Show
Dolphins vs Seahawks 4:05 ET \| CBS Lumen Field 8-Unit Bet on the Dolphins priced as 4.5-point underdogs. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 21-34 SU (38%) and 37-17-1 ATS (69%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. This dog is coming off a double-digit home loss. Dog had a –2 or worse turnover margin in their previous game.
09-22-24	Eagles +3 v. Saints	Top	15-12	Win	100	2 h 51 m	Show
Philadelphia vs New Orleans 1:00 \| FOX 8-unit bet on the Eagles priced as 3-point underdogs. Consider betting 5-Units on the Eagles preflop and then add the remaining three units if the Saints score first with a TD or a pair of FGs or they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action. Should the Eagles Play Without the Coaching Staff? For Eagles fans #FlyEaglesFly was crash and burn Eagles as the coaching staff clearly led them down the path to lose that Monday Night game against the Falcons. The dropped pass by Saquon Barkley inside of two-minutes was not the reason they lost the game, but rather going for it on fourth down inside the five-yard line in 3-0 game in the second quarter. Further, the decision to pass the ball to Barkley was the wrong call and better to have run the ball in that situation to keep the clock moving knowing the Falcons were out of timeouts. Now, the Eagles are facing one of the hottest teams and offenses in the Saints priced as 3.5-point underdogs. Reyling on Analytics Alone is a Sure-Fire way to Get Fired On the telecast it was noted that the analytics said to go for it on 4th down and four yards to go with the Eagles in the red zone. There is not one meaningful stat that would state that when the game is being played in the mud – meaning that points were scarce and hard-to-get. The analytics are flawed because they do not reflect the game flow. If the defenses could not stop the other’s offense, then yes, the analytics are more likely to say GO because field goals do little to increase a lead or diminish a deficit on the scoreboard. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-33 SU (52%) and 42-20-6 ATS (68%) winning bets. Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 6 points. The dog went Under their team total in the previous game. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. From the predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as the Saints. In past road games over the past 5 seasons, the Eagles are 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Here is a second algorithm that has produced an 11-8 SU record and a 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on underdogs from pick to 6.5 points in the first four weeks of the season. The opponent has won their last two games. The opponent was not in last season’s playoffs. So, I am certainly expecting a bounce-back effort today by the Eagles, especially on defense in defending the run and getting many QB pressures and hits today. The offense will take care of itself.
09-19-24	Patriots +6.5 v. Jets	Top	3-24	Loss	-105	7 h 49 m	Show
Patriots vs Jets 8:20 ET \| Amazon MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 8-Unit Bet on the Patriots +6 points. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to add 30% of that 8-Unit amount if the Jets score first or they retake the lead in the first half only. If the Patriots get out to a fast start there probably will not be an opportunity to get on the 30% remaining bet, but that also implies the Patriots are comfortably covering the spread. The Patriots offensive line is a mishmash of players given they have players OUT or listed as questionable across the line. So, by betting 70% preflop is a hedge against that offensive line just not getting it done. The market with the Patriots priced at 6 points and has dropped from 6.5 points despite the terrible injury reports regard their offensive line. Just like the price of Apple Computer reflects all expectations about their future earnings, the sports betting market reflects the expectations and news reports of both teams. The NFL Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 74-86 record good for 54% SU winners and a 99-59-2 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and ALL 10 seasons have produced profits. The requirements are: The game occurs i the first four weeks of the season. Bet on road underdogs. The host had a losing record in the previous season. Simple to understand and straightforward results. Filtering this algorithm to reflect weeks 2 through 4 and the host having won less than 40% of their games in the previous season has produced a 19-13 SU mark (60%) and a 22-9-1 ATS record goof for 71% winning bets.
09-16-24	Falcons +5.5 v. Eagles	Top	22-21	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
Falcons vs Eagles 8:20 ET \| Lincoln Financial Field 8-Unit bet on the Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting In last week’s upset home loss to the the now 2-0 AFC Central division-leading Steelers (remember my recommendation to bet the Steelers to win the divisional title at 38:1?) they were able to put pressure on Cousins on 34% of the downs played. The Falcons defense managed to attain just 17.4% QB pressure on the Steeler signal caller. Check out the fourth betting algorithm below for more. Situational Trends and Angles: Dogs in Week 2 that are coming off a Week 1 loss priced as a favorite have gone 38-50 SU (43%) and 53-33-2 ATS good for 62% wining bets since 1989. In weeks 2 and 3, dogs in a non-divisional fray coming off a loss priced as a favorite and lost to the spread by double digits in their previous game have gone a solid 17-24 SU and 26-14-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1989. Every franchise knows that getting out of the gate with a 0-2 SU record means that they have an 11.5% chance of making it to the playoffs. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site are 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS for 36% including a highly profitable 10-4 Over record for 71.4% winning bets. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site and were a playoff team in the previous season are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS for 27% winners. Home favorite of 4.5 or more points coming off a neutral site game are 7-1 SU but just 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. The Monday Night NFL Betting Algorithm: This group of parameters has produced a 20-30 SU record and a 32-14-4 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. That dog is coming off a loss in which they committed three or more turnovers. That dog played Under their team total in that loss. The total is priced between 45 and 50 points. Here is a second NFL betting algorithm that has gone 21-34 SU (38%) and 33-19-3 ATS (64%) over the past 25 seasons. Bet on a road dog. That dog is coming off a poor game where their QB posted a 95 or lower quarterback rating. That dog is coming off an upset loss at home. In that loss their receivers achieved just four to seven yards after the catch. Here is a third NFL betting algorithm that has gone 16-22 SU and 25-13 ATS for 65.8% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road dogs of 3.5 to 6.5 points. That road dog is coming off an upset home loss. That dog converted 20 to 30% of their third down opportunities. The game is a non-divisional matchup. Here is another NFL betting algorithm that has gone 15-14 SU and 18-10-1 for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road teams coming off an upset home loss. They had at least one turnover in that loss. The opponent in that loss had 15% or more QB pressures in that loss. If our road team had at least three turnovers in their previous upset home loss they have gone an amazing 6-5 SU and 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets.