|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-21-23||Giants v. Eagles -8||Top||7-38||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points
Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%).
Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage.
From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM
|01-21-23||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-27||Win||100||6 h 40 m||Show|
Jacksonville vs Kansas City
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books.
So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons.
Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total.
Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past.
|01-01-23||Rams v. Chargers -6.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
LA Rams vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points
Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS.
From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015.
|01-01-23||Panthers v. Bucs -3.5||Top||24-30||Win||100||3 h 59 m||Show|
Carolina vs Tampa Bay
5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points
After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages.
Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons.
|01-01-23||Jaguars -3 v. Texans||Top||31-3||Win||100||3 h 49 m||Show|
Jacksonville vs Houston
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points
Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets.
The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season.
Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location.
From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|01-01-23||Saints v. Eagles -5||Top||20-10||Loss||-110||3 h 48 m||Show|
New Orleans vs Philadelphia
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points
Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread.
From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018.
|12-25-22||Packers v. Dolphins -3||Top||26-20||Loss||-120||5 h 47 m||Show|
Packers vs Dolphins
5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins
Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders.
The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games.
Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets.
|12-24-22||Eagles +5 v. Cowboys||Top||34-40||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Dallas
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points
Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets.
Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through.
Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners.
|12-24-22||Bills -8 v. Bears||35-13||Win||100||2 h 23 m||Show|
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills minus the points
Bills are 8-3 ATS when taking on a losing record team in games played over the past three seasons. Bills are 6-0 ATS coming off a win of 6 or fewer points and with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the past three seasons. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 ATS following a win by three or fewer points.
From the predictive model, the Bills are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons when scoring 28 or more points and outgaining their foe by at least 100 total yards. Bet the Bills and forget the weather for once.
|12-24-22||Giants v. Vikings -4||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||2 h 23 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Vikings minus the points
Betting on any team playing on a Saturday that is coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an unprofitable 11-24-2 ATS record for 31% winning bets and targets the Giants to fade in this matchup. If the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points these teams have gone just 5-12 ATS for 29%.
Giants are 0-6 ATS when facing excellent passing teams completing 64% or more of their past attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Minnesota is 30-13-1 ATS following a game in which they scored no more than three points in the first half over the past 30 seasons. Teams, like the Vikings, who scored 7 or fewer points in the first half, but then scored 34 or more points in total in their previous game go on to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record over the past five seasons.
|12-24-22||Falcons +6.5 v. Ravens||Top||9-17||Loss||-105||2 h 22 m||Show|
Atlanta vs Baltimore
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons plus the points
The weather forecast is for the game time temperature to be 15 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Saturday afternoon's game at M&T Bank Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing diagonally across the field will make passing and kicking difficult.
Betting on teams that have gone five consecutive games in which they forced no more than a single turnover in each of those games and now facing a foe coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse has earned a highly profitable 68-39 ATS record for 64% winners. If this team is in a non-conference game and coming off a divisional game, they have gone 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|12-24-22||Bengals -3 v. Patriots||Top||22-18||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs New England
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals minus the points
Betting road favorites that are averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and coming off a horrid game in which they gained an average of only 5 or fewer passing yards per attempt are 19-4 ATS good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from week 10 on out, the system has gone 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets.
|12-19-22||Rams +7 v. Packers||Top||12-24||Loss||-100||10 h 8 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the seven points and sprinkle a little bit more on the money line.
When the league's slate of prime-time games came out in the spring, a mid-December matchup between the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the three-time defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field sounded like TV ratings gold. No one though this would end up being a meaningless matchup, BUT it is the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams that have been playing with a sense of pride and ambition going with the starters the have available. he Rams have just 13 points on their 14 total takeaways this season, half as many points as any other team (Denver ranks 31st with 26 takeaway points). The Packers have allowed 35 giveaway points on their 17 turnovers this season, tied for fifth fewest in the league. So, if the4re was ever a game in which the Rams will take full advantage of Packers Aaron Rogers turnovers, it will be tonight. Head coach McVay is 17-7-1 ATS in game splayed in December.
There have been two times in the Super Bowl era where a quarterback came off the bench, threw for 200+ yards, rallied from 13+ points down to win and snapped his team's winless streak of six or more games. One was Baker Mayfield's Browns debut in 2018, and the other was his Rams debut last week and that is impressive to say the least. He and the Rams have everything to prove on the field tonight, especially Mayfield.
From the predictive model the Rams are 26-11-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when gaining 5.0 or more yards per play and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes in games played over the last five seasons and 7-3 ATS when priced as the uderdog.
|12-15-22||49ers v. Seahawks +3||Top||21-13||Loss||-100||7 h 32 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Seattle
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points
4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total
Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners.
The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team.
|12-11-22||Dolphins v. Chargers +3||Top||17-23||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
Dolphins vs Chargers
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chargers plus the points
Betting on underdogs that forcing an average of fewer than one turnover per game on the season and coming off a horrid game in which they committed three or more turnovers has earned a 46-18-3 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home as a dog against a conference foe our record improves to 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2013.
Teams, like the Dolphins, that had a five gamer win streak halted with a double-digit road loss are just 13-24-4 ATS for 35% winning bets so fading these teams has won 65% ATS of bets placed. In these games if the total has been 50+ points, the Dolphins fit into an imperfect 0-5 ATS situation.
|12-11-22||Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||7-35||Loss||-110||5 h 50 m||Show|
Bucs vs 49ers
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points
Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that is coming off a two ATS wins priced as the favorite in each game, and with the dog coming off a home win has earned a 39-21-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2010. Brady is 45-14 SU and 43-11-5 ATS when taking on a foe with the better record. Bucs are also 7-2-2 ATS coming off a game priced as the favorite and now installed as a dog spanning the past five seasons. If the Bus were favored, but failed to cover the spread in their previous game and now priced as the fog, they have gone 5-1 SUATS. Take the Bucs and sprinkle the money line a bit more.
|12-11-22||Vikings v. Lions -2||Top||23-34||Win||100||1 h 26 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Detroit
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points.
Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010.
The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010.
|12-11-22||Eagles v. Giants +7||Top||48-22||Loss||-100||1 h 25 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line
Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990.
In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game.
Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS.
|12-11-22||Jets +10 v. Bills||Top||12-20||Win||100||1 h 25 m||Show|
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted.
Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate.
|12-01-22||Bills v. Patriots +3.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
Buffalo vs New England
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline.
Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions.
The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury.
Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL.
Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.
From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%).
|11-27-22||Bears v. Jets -6.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points
I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost.
Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity.
Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.
Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored.
From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points.
|11-20-22||Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too.
Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games.
From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook.
The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons.
From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game.
|11-20-22||Lions +3 v. Giants||Top||31-18||Win||100||101 h 3 m||Show|
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants
5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year
1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022
If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread.
Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014.
From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017.
|11-20-22||Jets +3.5 v. Patriots||Top||3-10||Loss||-110||3 h 41 m||Show|
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150
Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010.
|11-20-22||Bears v. Falcons -2.5||Top||24-27||Win||100||3 h 40 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too.
Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons.
|11-13-22||Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||2 h 33 m||Show|
Jaguars vs Chiefs
4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline
Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games.
Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets.
|11-13-22||Browns v. Dolphins -3||Top||17-39||Win||100||2 h 33 m||Show|
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins
The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone.
Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010.
|11-13-22||Broncos +2.5 v. Titans||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||2 h 32 m||Show|
Broncos vs Titans
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos
Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets.
|11-13-22||Texans +5 v. Giants||Top||16-24||Loss||-110||2 h 31 m||Show|
Texans vs Giants
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans
Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets.
Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons.
From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers.
|11-06-22||Chargers -3 v. Falcons||Top||20-17||Push||0||5 h 45 m||Show|
Chargers vs Falcons
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers
Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets.
Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher.
|10-24-22||Bears +9.5 v. Patriots||Top||33-14||Win||100||3 h 26 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs Patriots
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points
Betting on road underdogs that are facing a foe that is outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards per pass attempt, after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in their last game has earned an outstanding 73-38-3 for 65.7% ATS winners over the last five seasons. If the home favorite held their previous opponent seven or more points UNDER their team total, these teams are just 3-9 ATS for 25%. So, fading them produced a 75% winning angle.
A victory Monday night would be the 325th of his career - including the playoffs - and break a tie with Bears founder George Halas for the second-most wins by a head coach in NFL history. Hall of Famer Don Shula at 347 is the only coach with more. At age 70 and in his 23rd season with New England, Belichick became one of four people to coach at least 400 games with a single team, along with Halas (506 with Chicago), Tom Landry (454 with Dallas) and Shula (422 with Miami). Among that group, Belichick's winning percentage (.716) is the highest. He is 287-114 as New England's coach, including playoffs.
The Bears rank third against the pass, and it is not just because teams are running at will against a team that is near the bottom of the NFL in stopping the rush. Chicago has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four) and has held its opponents to a 79.9 rating.
Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions after going two seasons without one. He had six in his 2018 All-Pro season and two more the following year when he was chosen for his second Pro Bowl. Jackson has had 13 interceptions since he debuted in 2017.
|10-23-22||Packers v. Commanders +4||21-23||Win||100||2 h 54 m||Show|
Packers vs Commanders
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the points
Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has not forced an opponent turnover in two straight games has produced a 44-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. With the Commanders coming off a game in which they committed zero turnovers moves this system to an impeccable 14-3 ATS mark for 82% winning bets.
While Rodgers nurses a thumb injury on his throwing hand that is not expected to sideline the four-time MVP, Washington is turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after starter Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken right ring finger. Heinicke started 15 games last season and quite frankly, he is a better general of the offense than Wentz. During LaFleur's tenure, the Packers are 37-1 when they force at least one turnover. But the defense has not produced any takeaways during this losing streak, and they have forced only four turnovers all season.
|10-23-22||Browns +7 v. Ravens||Top||20-23||Win||100||2 h 56 m||Show|
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
1:00 EDT week 7
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns plus the points
Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 7.5 points that are facing a divisional foe with a strong offense averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play (YPPL) and outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 yards has earned a highly profitable 22-11 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
The Browns have forced no more than one takeaway in nine straight games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind a 13-game streak in 2017. However, there is a significant probability that the Ravens will commit 2+ turnovers in this game today per my predictive model. So, teams like the Browns in a road game against a divisional foe that force 2+ turnovers and have the same or fewer turnovers (win the turnover battle) have gone 20-16 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|10-23-22||Lions +7 v. Cowboys||Top||6-24||Loss||-110||2 h 55 m||Show|
Lions vs Cowboys
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the pooints
Situational Betting Algorithms
Road dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their BYE week have earned a solid 20-12 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. The Lions is the team targeted by this set of parameters and I would not hesitate to sprinkle the moneyline too.
Situational Trends and Angles
The Underdogs, who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-25-2 ATS (58%) this season. The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a terrible loss of 14 or more points. The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons.
|10-17-22||Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers||Top||16-19||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
Denver vs LA Chargers
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the points
These two NFL teams are heading in opposite directions with the Broncos vastly underperforming losing their last two games to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts by nine and three points respectively. Their last lost to the Colts was a dreadful performance scoring just nine points and somehow losing 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been positively pathetic ranking dead last averaging 15 points-per-game and with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games
The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by -6 points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. Despite, 65% of the tickets bet being on the Chargers, the line has declined to make the Chargers a 4.5-point home favorite. If more bettors have bet on the Chargers accounting for 65% of all bets placed how could the line drop? The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course and they are the larger bettors including professionals. The ‘sharps’ account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets.
Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos.
Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season
Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing 6 or fewer yards-per-play (YPPL)
From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers
Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games in which they committed two turnovers
Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers.
|10-16-22||Bengals v. Saints +3||Top||30-26||Loss||-101||4 h 35 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs New Orleans
4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points
Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.
|10-16-22||Vikings v. Dolphins +3||Top||24-16||Loss||-105||4 h 33 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Miami
4% best bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points
Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are coming off an upset road loss and has won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season has earned a 28-24 SU record, 34-18 ATS record good for 65.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and if a non-divisional matchup has earned a 17-11 SU record and 20-8 SATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets.
This is a contrarian bet. Miami’s top two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, are in the concussion protocol and have lost two straight games after starting 3-0. Plus, Miami will start a rookie quarterback Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings (4-1). With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, the Dolphins will hope to build on last week's best rushing output of the year and correct their issues in defending the pass and they have had a full week for Thompson to work with the first unit, correct his footwork mistakes, and create some good timing with the wideouts.
|10-16-22||Patriots +2.5 v. Browns||Top||38-15||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
New England vs Cleveland
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Patriots plus the points
Betting on road underdogs including pick-em following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and taking on a foe that has had a turnover margin of –1 or worse in each of their past two games has led to a 32-9-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons
The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 win over the Lions, the 17th time team coached by Bill Belichick has shut out their opponent. That is more shutouts than the combined total of the next three active coaches with the most team shutouts (John Harbaugh (5), Mike Tomlin (5) and Mike McCarthy (4).
|10-09-22||Eagles -5 v. Cardinals||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||4 h 13 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals
5% MAX 10-Unit best Bet on the Eagles minus the points
As I had mentioned on several occasions before the preseason started, I truly believed the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in many seasons- not just this season. They know this is a letdown spot for them with travel to the Est Coast and they will be more than ready to play and fully focused to get to 5-0 on the season. The Phillies winning their playoff series last night, whether they know it or not, will feed into this club too, and they will hardly want to come back home to Philadelphia having let down the fan base. This is an intangible but one I think favors the Eagles in a big way.
Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in home games after outgaining the previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 8-15 ATS in home games when the total has been 45 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Cardinals head coach Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
From my predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score at least 24 or more points. In past games in which the Cardinals allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed 24 or more points they have gone 3-11-1 ATS for 21% over the past five seasons. The Eagles are 12-2-1 for 86% winning bets when rushing the ball for 150 or more yards and scoring 24 or more points in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-02-22||Chiefs v. Bucs||Top||41-31||Loss||-118||9 h 26 m||Show|
Chiefs vs Bucs
5% 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Bucs
4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total
I am not betting this as a parlay and instead will bet 75% of my normal 10-Unit amount on the Bucs prior to kickoff and then IF the Chiefs score a touchdown first or get a 7-point first half lead, I will add the remaining 25% using the available in-Game betting line on the Bucs. The total will be bet with the 8-Unit normal amount prior to kickoff. Now, if you have a promo for a 1-game odds boost from the likes of BetMGM, then make that bet with no more than 2.5 Unit amount.
Betting on teams that made the playoffs last season, won 12 games last season and are coming off a loss priced as a home favorite and with the current game having a total of 46.5 or fewer points has earned a 38-18-4 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 2015.
Betting Over the posted total when lined between 42.5 and 49.5 points in. a matchup of teams that have outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG and with one of the teams (KC) coming off two consecutive Under results as earned a 36-18 mark good for 67% winning Over bets. If both teams are coming off back-to-back Under results the Over is 14-2-2 ATS for 88% winning bets
From the predictive mode, we are expecting both teams to score 24 or more points and with the Bucs having the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Bucs met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 25-3 SU record and 23-4-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over for 80% when scoring 24 or more points and having more turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past five seasons.
|10-02-22||Browns v. Falcons +1||Top||20-23||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
Browns vs Falcons
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons
Betting on a team that is averaging 32 or fewer rushes per game, is coming off an upset win in a game they had the ball for 32 or fewer minutes and now facing a foe that averages 32 or more minutes in time-of-possession has earned an outstanding 23-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets. If this team is the home team, they have gone 12-6 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2009.
Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing with plenty of confidence. He earned first downs on 65.0 percent (13-for20) of his pass attempts in the Falcons' win at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. That's the second highest first-down percentage for Mariota in any of his 64 NFL starts. Mariota's highest percentage (73.3%, 11 of 15) came in his NFL debut, a 42-14 Tennessee Titans win at Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the 2015 season.
|10-02-22||Bills -3 v. Ravens||Top||23-20||Push||0||3 h 13 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Baltimore
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bills minus the points
Betting on teams in a game lined between the 3’s and with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a road game in which they and their opponents both scored 24 or more points, with the game occurring between weeks 4 and 7 has earned a 19-10 SU record and 20-9 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons without a single losing season.
Eleven different Buffalo players caught at least one pass in Sunday's loss at Miami. That's a Bills franchise record for one game and the highest total for one team in an NFL game this season. The accomplishment how deep the Bills receivers are this season and also Josh Allen’s incredible accuracy and knowing where the holes are in the defense. I think the same thing happens here in Baltimore.
|09-29-22||Dolphins +3.5 v. Bengals||Top||15-27||Loss||-108||12 h 1 m||Show|
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points
The Miami defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in their dramatic 21-19 over the Buffalo Bills last week. The impact of the extra time of the field is minimal since we are in the beginning part of the season. They did play a large number of minutes, but it has not been in consecutive games. I do expect their secondary to be significantly better tonight than they have been played in the first three games.
Teams playing on Thursday Night Football and had 27.5 or fewer minutes in time of possession in their previous game that they won has earned a 19-17 SU record and 22-13-1 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets.
Betting on road underdogs including pick-em from week-4 on to the end of the regular seasons that are scoring 24 or more PPG on the season and coming off a win of three or fewer points has earned a 78-42-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989 and a highly profitable 22-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets.
Bet the Miami Dolphins plus the points and if your moneyline is at +150 or higher, then add a sprinkle amount, pizza money size, with that moneyline.
|09-26-22||Cowboys +1 v. Giants||Top||23-16||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants
5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys getting the point. The moneyline will be cheaper vig, but I recommend to only bet the moneyline at -105 or better.
With the Philadelphia Eagles destroying the Washington Commanders and now at 3-0 for the season, this becomes a very important game for these two fellow NFC East Rivals. The Cowboys are without their quarterback and All=Pro Dak Prescott, but his backup Cooper Rush has stepped in and played quite well against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Cowboys defense also stepped up big and will again tonight against the Giants.
Teams, like Dallas, that are coming off an upset win priced as an underdog and now playing on Monday Night against a divisional foe and priced as a dog of 4 or fewer points including pick-em have gone 10-4 SU and ATS for 71.4% winning bets.
Teams, like Dallas, that had a winning record last season and coming off an upset win, and now playing against a divisional foe on Monday Night priced as the underdog including pick-em are 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 17-3 ATS in road games when the total has been priced between 35.5 and 42 points for his career.
From the predictive model, The Cowboys defense will keep the Giants from scoring 17 or more points and will allow fewer than 175 passing yards. In past games played since 1989, teams that have allowed less than 175 passing yards and fewer than 17 points have gone on to a 943-300-48 ATS record good for 76% winning bets, 227-49 SU for 82% and 215-54-7 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
|09-25-22||Ravens v. Patriots +2.5||37-26||Loss||-105||2 h 19 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots 1:00 EDT
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Patriots plus the points.
Betting on underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points in the first four week of the season that averaged 24 or more PPG in their previous season and priced as an underdog including pick-em games has earned a solid 31-25 SU record and 38-18 ATS betting mark good for 68% winning wagers since 2018.
With change comes new opportunities. And Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is experiencing new freedom in New England's revamped offense.
In last week's win at Pittsburgh, the Patriots mixed in some run-pass option plays, which were a staple of the offense Jones ran at Alabama. He also said he has been given a lot more freedom to give his receivers more opportunities on deep "50-50" one-on-one opportunities. Jones had success last week, connecting with Nelson Agholor on a 44-yard touchdown. The Ravens allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 469 yards and six touchdowns against them last weekend, and Miami rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 42-38. Now the Raven’s secondary, limited by injuries recently, goes up against Jones and New England.
|09-25-22||Bills v. Dolphins +5||19-21||Win||100||2 h 18 m||Show|
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dolphins plus the points
Bet on home underdogs that are coming off a game in which they trailed by 21 or more points at the half and taking on a guest that is coming off a win of 14 or more points has earned a 33-20 ATS record good for 62.3% winning bets. If the road team is coming off two consecutive double-digit wins, our dog improves to 17-9 ATS for 65.4% winning bets.
Also, betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in each of their two previous games and taking on a visitor that is coming off a game in which they allowed 5.6 or fewer yards per pass attempt has gone on to earn 24-13-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past 20 seasons, if the matchup defined above is a divisional one, the record has been a highly consistent and highly profitable 30-14 ATS for 68.2% winning bets.
Plus, road favorites that have outscored their opponents by 50 or more points in total over their last two games and facing a divisional host are 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. Bet the Fish.
|09-25-22||Lions +6 v. Vikings||24-28||Win||100||2 h 18 m||Show|
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 EST
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline
Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are scoring 28 or more PPG on the season has produced a 40-73 SU record for 35% upset wins and 74-27-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015 and has earned a 50-100-2 SU record and 96-53-3 ATS record for 64.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and has NOT had a losing ATS record ion any of those 10 seasons.
When Jared Goff's pass on the last play of the game in Detroit last year sailed across the goal line and landed in the arms of a rookie named Amon-Ra St. Brown to stick Minnesota with a stunning defeat, the identity of the receiver seemed rather insignificant at the time. That dramatic ending on Dec. 5 also turned out to be the beginning of a remarkable run for St. Brown, who has blossomed into a legitimate star of a potent Lions offense. The fourth-round draft pick out of USC has eight or more receptions in eight consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in NFL history.
Many Vikings cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers were carved up last week in Philadelphia by quarterback Jalen Hurts in their 24-7 loss, and rookie Akayleb Evans took over for the terrible play of Cameron Dantzler Sr. for much of the second half opposite veteran Patrick Peterson. So, Goff is playing with confidence and perhaps more so than any other time of his career.
The Lions have scored a touchdown in 15 straight quarters for the longest such streak in franchise history and the NFL's longest active run. They have scored at least 35 points in the first two games of a season for the first time since 1970.
|09-18-22||Texans +10 v. Broncos||Top||9-16||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Houston Texans plus the points and sprinkle the money line. Also take no more than .5% amount and create a money line parlay with the Texans and the Jets – just in case they both pull of the upset wins.
Betting on road underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that allowed 325 or more yards-per-game in the previous season and coming off a game in which their defense allowed 450 or more total yards has earned an 18-35 SU record and 36-14-3 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. And if the matchup is against a non-divisional foe the record improves to 11-25 SU and 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Bengals v. Cowboys +7||Top||17-20||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points and a little sprinkle on the moneyline.
I see this as a massive overreaction to the recent events surrounding the Cowboys and now represents a darn good betting opportunity. Even with Dak Prescott out of the lineup, there is a solid betting system that is not dependent on who is running the offense. Betting on underdogs that were top-level passing teams from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more passing yards-per-attempt has earned an outstanding 26-10 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the current game is lower than 48 points, these home pups have gone 6-8 SU and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Jets +6.5 v. Browns||Top||31-30||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points and add a little sprinkle on the money line.
With one of the NFL's best offensive lines and two talented backs, the Browns know what works for them and so does the Jets defense. The Jets shut down Baltimore's running game last week, holding the Ravens to just 63 yards and containing dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson, who only got 17 on six attempts.
Jets fall into a decent betting angle as well noting that road dogs of 4.5 to 6.5 points that are coming a game in which they averaged less than 6 yards gain after the catch and forced no more than one opponent turnover have produced a 37-22 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs in the first four weeks of the season, these road dogs are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets.
|09-18-22||Bucs -2.5 v. Saints||Top||20-10||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs minus the points.
Betting on teams when the money line prices then between a -150 favorite and +150 dog in a divisional matchup that are coming off a win but failed to cover the spread have produced a healthy 29-10 ATS record over the past 15 seasons. This reflects the use of the money line to group and filter favorable betting situations. Saints head coach Allen is just 1-9 Ats following a game in which a combined 50 or more points were scored.
From the predictive model, we are looking for the Bucs to score at least 24 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. The Bucs are 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets in road games, scoring 24 or more points, and gaining at least 5.25 Yards-per-play in games played over the past three seasons.
|09-18-22||Patriots -3 v. Steelers||Top||17-14||Push||0||2 h 25 m||Show|
New England vs Pittsburgh
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots minus the points
From my predictive model, the Patriots are expected to score at least 24 points and outgain the Steelers by at least 100 total yards. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures under head coach Belichick has led to a 81-3 SU record and 75-9 ATS record good for 89% winning bets. Under Belichick when he is coming off a loss and then outgains his next opponent by at least 100 total yards has produced a 25-1 SU record and a 23-3 ATS record.
|09-15-22||Chargers +4 v. Chiefs||Top||24-27||Win||100||3 h 1 m||Show|
Chargers vs Kansas City
4% best bet on the Chargers plus the points. and spronkle a bit more on the moneyline if it is at +150 or higher.
Last week the Chiefs offense was in full gear as Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 39 asses gaining 360 yards including five touchdowns in their 44-21 domination of the Arizona Cardinals, who were a vastly depleted squad. I do not see Mahomes throwing five touchdowns in this matchup against a defense I believe is one of the best in the AFC.
Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points facing an opponent that forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 153-105-1 ATS record good for 58% winning bets. If our road dog is lined between 3.5 and 7.5 points with the game taking place in the first four weeks of the regular season has produced a 31-15 ATS record good for 67.4% winning bets.
From the predictive models, the Chargers defense is expected to force two or more turnovers and the offense is expected to gain at least 350 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to produce a highly profitable 52-16-2 ATS for 77% winners over the last 20 seasons.
|09-12-22||Broncos v. Seahawks +7||Top||16-17||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
Denver vs Seattle
Monday Night Football
5% MAX Best Bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points
I like a sprinkle on the money line not to exceed a .5% or 1-Unit amount
One option for this matchup is to bet 70% pre-flop on the Seahawks plus the 6.5 points and then look for Denver to score first either by field goal or touchdown and then add the remaining 30% with the in-game line that may be as high as 10.5 to 11 points. We saw this in many games Sunday with an opponent trailing only to recover to tie the game and even win it. The Giants comeback being most notable in their road win over the Tennessee Titans.
Betting against favorites in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup of teams that both failed to make the postseason in their previous season and with the dog having won between 5 and 9 games in their previous season has produced an exceptional 32-16-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015. Plus, if our dog is getting 4.5 or more points has seen them go 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.
Over the last 10 seasons, home dogs facing a divisional foe in the first three weeks of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-14-1 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. And the clincher knowing that these divisional home dogs of three or more points are 8-3-1 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
|09-11-22||Colts v. Texans +7.5||20-20||Win||100||2 h 13 m||Show|
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Texans plus the points
As was the case with the Falcons, home underdogs in week-1 facing a divisional foe are 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Colts to commit two turnovers and for the Texans to gain 125 rushing yards. The Texans are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% wins when they have gained at least 100 yards and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers and if the opponent commits 2 or more turnovers the Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets.
|09-11-22||Ravens v. Jets +6.5||Top||24-9||Loss||-105||2 h 14 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points
There is uncertainty at the WR position for the Ravens coming into this season. They traded Marquis Brown, which leaves second-year sophomore Rashod Bateman as the top returning starter to the offense. The Jets will be a different team this season with rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick, winning a starting job. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, taken six picks later, will be a prominent part of the offense and defensive end Jermaine Johnson, picked 26th overall, will be in the rotation for perhaps the team's best and deepest unit, which I see capable of conatining or even
Running back Breece Hall, a second round draft pick, is part of a strong 1-2 backfield punch with Michael Carter – and they are healthy.
Betting on home underdogs un week 1 that are facing a conference foe that had a losing record in the previous season has earned a solid 20-9-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1992 and 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets last 10 seasons.
|09-11-22||Saints v. Falcons +5.5||Top||27-26||Win||100||2 h 14 m||Show|
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the points
Since 2012, home dogs in a divisional matchup in week-1 action have gone 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
Over the last 10 seasons, betting on underdogs in the first month of the season that are facing a favorite that did not make it to the playoffs, but did win their last two games of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets. Over the past five season, this set of parameters earned a 9-2 ATS record for 82% winning bets.
|09-11-22||49ers -6.5 v. Bears||Top||10-19||Loss||-110||2 h 13 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Chicago
4% best bet on the SF 49ers minus the points
From the predictive models, the 49ers are expected to gain at least 7.75 yards per pass attempt and gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games when the 49ers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures, they have gone on to earn a 19-3 SU record, 18-4 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. If they gain 150 or more rushing yards in this situation, they are 13-1 SU and ATS for 93% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Also, prop bet for 1% and no more than 2 units Over 62.5 rushing yards by Elijah Mitchell.
|09-11-22||Eagles -5.5 v. Lions||Top||38-35||Loss||-110||2 h 12 m||Show|
Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions
4% 8-Unit bets bet on the Eagles minus the points
The Eagles averaged more rushing attempts than any other franchise last season. With JB Brown being acquired in the offseason, that rush percentage will be significantly lower, but the Eagles may still average a ton of rushing yards per game this season. The models project that the Eagles will gain at least 160 rushing yards in this matchup and have at least a 3-minute advantage in time of possession. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to earn a 12-1-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|02-13-22||Rams v. Bengals +4.5||Top||23-20||Win||100||36 h 57 m||Show|
The LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals
5% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points.
I also like. Placing a 1% or one unit. Wager on the Bengals using the money line.
Take advantage of the Super Bowl to Super Bowl special for just $699 that saves you $600 over the regular 365-day subscription. This gives you All Access to Every pick I release in every sports including the 5% (5-Unit MAX Bets).
There is a terrific and highly profitable betting angle or algorithm if you will that has earned a 30-6-1 ATS since 1980. This algorithm has also gone undefeated at 7-0 ATS over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points after posting four consecutive games with a turnover margin off +1 or better and are now facing an opponent coming off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.
Remember too, that is NOT the game to “Go For It” - nor is any game. I am betting my 5% amount and a 1% on the money line and then 0.5% (0.25-units) on the 10 prop bets that follow below. It is a fact that I am 18-5 ATS for 77% winning bets over my career and there were 4 Super Bowls that I did not wager on the side or the total. The thrill of winning is terrific, but the agony of waking up Monday with the thoughts of “why in the world did I do that” is far worse.
The first prop that I like here on the DraftKings sportsbook betting odds board is Cincinnati Bengals total field goal yardage. DraftKings has it lined at over 60.5 yards paying minus 115 vig if you like the under 65 yards you're getting minus 110 vig. I'm taking the over in this prop bet.
The Cincinnati Bengals has an excellent rookie kicker in Evan McPherson who is 5 foot 10 and weighs 195 pounds and played for the University of Florida. In his rookie NFL season, he played in 16 games made 28 of 33 field goal attempts and made 46 of 48 extra point attempts. In road games this season he was spectacular, and the Bengals were 5-2 in those road games. He converted 20 of 21 extra points for 95% and made 100% going 14 for 14 in field goal attempts. In the seven road games he accounted for 62 points.
From long range, those field goals of 50 or more yards McPherson made 11 of 13 attempts on the season. So, let's see what other prop bets are attractive for this Super Bowl.
McPherson OVER 7.5 pts -135
Mcpherson is lined at 7 1/2 points. Betting the over in the number of points he will be accountable for does cost minus 135 vig but I think he will kick at least two field goals and make two extra points that right there is eight points in total, so I like over 7 1/2 points coming from Evan McPherson of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ja’Marr Chase +900 to score first TD of the game
Another player prop is involving touchdowns scored. I like Ja’Marr Chase wide receiver for Cincinnati at plus 900 to be the first player to score a touchdown. I also like him at plus 900 to score the last touchdown of the game. Odell Beckham, Jr. is a wide receiver and one of the many weapons on the Rams offense. He is lined at plus 600 to be the first scorer of a touchdown by the Rams offense.
Game Alternative Line Prop Bets
Kupp and Higgins anytime TD + under 54.5 points +725
Kupp, Chase, Mixon, and Beckham, Jr. All score anytime TD +1250
Joe Mixon Rushing yards greater than the 4th Round score of the Winner of PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open Event –110
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bengals to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer number of turnovers. In past games over the last three seasons, the Bengals are 16-3 ATS for 84.2% winning bets and when they have been the dog they are 8-2 SU, 10-0 ATS for 100% winners. Good Luck and TY for a terrific season on the NCAAF + NFL gridiron.
|01-30-22||Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs||Top||27-24||Win||100||30 h 17 m||Show|
Cincinnati Vs. Kansas City
5-UNIT (5%) Best Bet on the Bengals plus the points
Yep, after poring through mountains of analytics, fundamental matchup analysis, and the projections produced from my machine learning models, the pick is on the Bengals. Moreover, they have an excellent opportunity to extend their post season for one more game, Super Bowl LVI. A sprinkle of not more than 1-UNIT on the money line is recommended.
At BetMGM, I like the alternative spread and total parlay betting the Bengals +3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +375 for 0.5-Units. Plus, a second one., which is obviously a bit bolder taking the Bengals –3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +850 for 0.5 Units.
The Bengals placekicker, McPherson, has made 11 of 13 field goals from beyond 50 yards this season. He is lined at extra points made 2.5 over-under and the over is +105. The Bengals team total is 23.5 points. OVER 2.5 extra points reflects the fact that the Bengals score three or more TD’s and is a much alternative to bet on, then to bet OVER the Bengals team total. So, put me down for 0.5 units OVER 2.5 extra points made by McPherson.
The Benglas have significant advantages with their receiver corps going up against an underwhelming cornerback group and the backend of the Chiefs defense is below average and that is being kind. Plus, safety Tyrann Mathieu remains listed as questionable and must get through the concussion protocol to be eligible for this game.
Burrow is three years removed from taking the LSU Tigers to the National Championship, so the bright lights of this AFC Championship game is not in any way going to be an overwhelming one for him. This season on 1st and 10 situations, he has completed 73.3% of his 170 pass attempts gaining 1557 yards including 9 TDs. On third and needing more than 10+ yards to move the chains he completed 77.8% of his passes for 475 yards. His bets situation this season has been on second and needing 7 to 9 yards to move the chains in which he completed 73.6% of his passes for 484 yards including 5 TDs and a sky-high 132 quarterback rating.
Burrow ranked best in the NFL throwing 82.8% of his passes on target. Surprisingly, the 49ers Garoppolo was second-best at 81.5% accuracy. Burrow led the NFL with a 10.7% bad throw percentage while Mahomes ranked sixth-worst throwing 18.8% bad throws. The Chiefs ran the third-most play action pass plays on the NFL with 147. The Bengals do not need to use play action because of the elite group of receivers and with Burrows being the most accurate ball thrower in the NFL. They ran almost half as many play action plays, with 75, then the Chiefs did, and they have the more mobile quarterback.
Over the last three games the Chiefs averaged 37.3 PPG while the Bengals have been in slugfests and averaging 20.3 PPG. Playoff favorites that are averaging 15 or more PPG on offense over their last three games than their opponent is just 7-6 SU, 3-10 ATS for 23%. Reid is 1-10 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards over his last three games as the coach of the Chiefs. The Bengals have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games and teams on a 5+ ats win streak in the playoffs are 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS for 59% and if the DOG the UNDER is 8-2.
|01-23-22||Rams v. Bucs -2.5||Top||30-27||Loss||-117||6 h 44 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs
3:00 EST, Divisional Playoff Round
10-UNIT best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points
I do believe there is one tremendous fact that provides the ultimate motivation for any team led by Tom Brady, who is 44 years old and is older than the three other NFC teams head coaches. Brady still has a year left on his contract, however, there is reason to believe that he would retire with another Super Bowl win. Imagine being a teammate knowing you can be part of that history.
Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing a team that has completed 64% or more of their past attempts and 10-2 ATS facing teams averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and 7-0 ATS facing a team gaining at least 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt.
Rams are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.
Bucs head coach Arians is 9-2 ATS when facing the elite NFL offenses that are gaining at least six yards per play in the second half of each season.
From my predictive models, the Bucs are expected to score 27 or more points and have fewer turnovers than the Rams. In past games since Brady arrived in Tampa, the Bucs are 21-1, 20-1-1 ATS, and 11-10-1 over-under when scoring 27 or more points and winning the turnover battle.
|01-22-22||49ers +6 v. Packers||Top||13-10||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Packers
8:15 PM EST, January 22, 2022
5% Best Bet on the 49ers plus the points and a 3-UNIT bet UNDER the posted total.
The 49ers and the Bucs are the two highest rated teams in my current power ratings. Despite being the first playoff team to ever play a game with 6-days of rest and having to face a team coming off the BYE, the 49ers are playing so extraordinarily well it just will not matter in thi matchup. I also think the media and others are over hyping the game-time temperatures. All of these professional players have played several games in their college and pro careers in even worse conditions then they will experience tomorrow night.
In recent weeks, the Packers defense cannot stop the run and are being gashed period. In fact, they are allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush in their home games this season. Did you know that playoff home teams that allowed 5 or more rushing yards per attempt are 5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, and the UNDER is 10-5. So, this works in favor in the UNDER and modestly against the Packers.
Over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons, betting the UNDER in road games with the #6 seed has earned an amazing 25-6 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets with 58% of the bets going UNDER the total by at least 7 points.
SF is 15-3-1 UNDER for 83% winning bets when facing teams that average 32 or more minutes in time of possession in games played after the halfway point of the season and includes the playoffs.
From my predictive model, the 49ers are expected to pass for a minimum of at least 8 yards per pass attempt and will gain at least 380 total yards. In past road games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to 32-14-2 ATS record for 69% winning bets. Playoff road teams that gain 380 or more yards and pass for 8 or more yards per pass attempt have earned a 17-5 ATS record good for 77% winning bets.
|01-22-22||Bengals +4 v. Titans||Top||19-16||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Tennessee
4-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals and 1.0-Unit Best Bet parlay using the Bengals money line and the OVER.
0.5-unit alternative line parlay Bengals –3.5 and OVER 50.5 points
I am on the Bengals in this matchup and believe they all the pieces in place to earn a historic franchise road win for their frenzied fans. Let’s look at a betting angle that has been highly profitable over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on the OVER involving a game in which a team is coming off a win but failed to cover the spread (they were favored) and now facing an opponent that is coming off a home win. That simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 46-13 OVER record good for 78% winning bets.
Tennessee is the team coming off the no-cover home win and if that team is coming off BYE or the is the first seed in the playoffs earning the week off has led to a terrible 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS mark for 17% winners.
Betting on underdogs that had no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing an opponent coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 65-40 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 10 seasons including playoffs. Over the last 20 playoff seasons, teams that come into the game on a four-game turnover streak committing not one turnover are 5-1 SU and ATS.
|01-17-22||Cardinals v. Rams -3.5||Top||11-34||Win||100||6 h 29 m||Show|
Arizona vs LA Rams
4% best bet on the Rams minus the points.
My models give the Rams the second-highest power rating of the 14 playoff teams and only the Bucs are higher – not the Packers.
The models also project that the Rams will gain at least 6.2 yards per play and score at least 27 points. In past games in which the Rams scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6.2 YPPL, they went on to an 83-20 SU record and 67-31-5 ATS mark for 68.4% winners over the last 15 seasons.
|01-09-22||Patriots -6 v. Dolphins||Top||24-33||Loss||-106||5 h 58 m||Show|
New England vs Miami
Here is a sensational betting algorithm that has systematically earned a 49-19 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allows 95 to 125 rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent that averages only 75 to 99 RYPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games rushing the ball for less than 100 yards in each game. This angle has earned an 18-6-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.
Under Belichick the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in road games and revenging a same loss of three or fewer points.
|01-09-22||Saints v. Falcons +4||Top||30-20||Loss||-100||5 h 55 m||Show|
New Orleans vs Atlanta
4% bet on the Falcons plus the points
Here is terrific betting algorithm that has produced consistent winning bets on a home team using the money line that is coming off two or more UNDERS and now facing an opponent that is also coming two or more unders has produced a 26-12 record for 68.4% winning bets over the past five seasons and is 48-23 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If home team is an underdog of not more than 6.5 points, they start really barking to the tune of an 11-5 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
The Saints committed no turnovers while forcing two turnovers in their 18-10 win over Carolina last week. They are 0-4 SU following a game in which they had a +2 or better turnover margin this season.
|01-09-22||Colts v. Jaguars +14.5||Top||11-26||Win||100||2 h 32 m||Show|
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville
4% bet on the UNDER
Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.
Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season.
|01-02-22||Raiders v. Colts -8||Top||23-20||Loss||-110||1 h 24 m||Show|
Las Vegas vs Indianapolis
4% (4-UNIT) best Bet on the Colts minus the points.
The Colts started out this season losing four of the first five games and looked as dysfunctional as that AFC team located in NYC. However, they more than got their acts together on both sides of the ball and are not in thick of the muddled AFC playoff chase. For the first time since 1991, the Raiders won back-to-back games scoring 17 or fewer points in each win. This is not good news for the Raider Nation this week. Teams of two consecutive wins scoring no more than 17 points in each win are just 39-50-2 ATS for 44% wins since 1989. If that team is a dog of 3.5 or more points, they fall flat with a 8-14 ATS record for 36% wins.
Betting against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog over a divisional foe and has a winning record for the season has earned a 74-36-6 record for 67.3% winning bets since 1989, and 8-1-1 ATS for 89% winners over the last 3 seasons.
|01-02-22||Dolphins +3 v. Titans||Top||3-34||Loss||-111||1 h 23 m||Show|
Miami vs Tennessee
The Dolphins became the first team in NFL history to have a 7-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in the same season after they defeated the Saints 20-3 Monday. They are on a 7-game win streak and have covered the spread in six of the games. Tennessee earned a massive win over the 49ers to keep their playoff hopes alive knowing the surging Colts are right on their heels.
Tannehill has struggled under pressure this season, ranking 23rd in Total QBR (10.9), 31st in touchdown-to-interception ratio and last in yards per drop backs at 1.2 yards per play. The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL with a 37% pressure rate. The #Finsup will bring pressure more than 50% of the offensive plays the Titans run and without Henry’s pounding ground attack the Titans will struggle to move the chains.
The Titans trailed at the half in their 20-17 comeback win over the 49ers Sunday. Teams that trailed at the half by 8 or more points and came back to win the game and are now playing at home are a money-burning 17-42-2 ATS for 29% wins over the last 10 seasons. Miami makes it 8 wins in a row.
|01-02-22||Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5||Top||20-16||Win||100||1 h 23 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Washington
4% (4-UNIT) best bet on the Washington Football Team
This is just a horrid situational matchup for the playoff-hopeful Eagles and their fans. What appears to be an ‘easy’ win somehow has the potential to be a disaster for the City of Brotherly Love faithful. Recency bias could not be at higher extremes with WFT getting destroyed and humiliated by the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys and the Eagles taking care of business against the hapless NY Giants.
Underdogs, like the Washington Iron Condors (They need a real mascot) that have been beaten by the spread by 27 or more points spanning their last three games and are playing in Week 15 on out have gone 58-110 34% SU, 96-68-4 ATS for 59%, UNDER 90-77 for 54% winners since 2000.
|01-02-22||Rams v. Ravens +6.5||Top||20-19||Win||102||1 h 22 m||Show|
Rams vs Ravens
Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game committing no more than a single turnover and facing an opponent that is coming off a game having lost the turnover battle by 2 or more has earned a 32-11-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Rams have won 4 straight games and cover the spread in all those games. They defeated Minnesota 30-23 last week but had three turnovers and forced Minnesota to just one. Harbaugh is 12-3 ATS off three or more consecutive OVERS as the coach of the Ravens.
|12-27-21||Dolphins v. Saints +3||Top||20-3||Loss||-103||6 h 17 m||Show|
Miami vs New Orleans
10-Unit Best Bet on the Saints plus the points. Love the Saints if they remain an underdog.
Check out this money line betting angle-system that has earned an incredible 38-10 for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons, 64-31 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is 7-2 this season. Bet on any team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and also coming off a road win over a divisional opponent. Talk about letdown for the Dolphins in this matchup in New Orleans.
Since the 1994 season, teams playing in Week 15 on out to the end of the regular season priced as the favorite have gone just 8-14-1 ATS for 36% winning bets
Iam Book will be the quarterback for the Saints in this matchup because Trevor Siemian is OUT, Taysom Hill is doubtful due to COVID-19. Let’s not forget this is one of the better defenses in the NFC. The Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said all QBs on the roster are preparing and studying virtually or at the Dolphins practice facility for the Dolphins and didn't commit to officially starting Book being the starter. Do not be fooled here with a rookie quarterback, who has been inactive for all 14 of the Saints games this season. He reminds of Nick Mullins in that he makes smart decisions, is highly accurate, and is mobile – at least mobile enough to extend plays.
Note that the Dolphins were having better results with returning starters. Sixth overall draft choice Jaylen Waddle was re-activated from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and is set to continue his pursuit of an NFL rookie record for catches. He has 86 catches this season. However, the betting line moved only a single point after that news, and I would have thought that he was worth at least 2 to 3 points. So, selling into this near-frenzy wave of Dolphins bets makes perfect logic to me.
The Dolphins are 3-11 and 4-10 ATS for 29% when playing on Mondays dating back to the 2006 season. That is the worst record on Mondays of any team in that span and includes a 38-17 loss at New Orleans in 2013. So, here we go with an upset alert and let’ cash this 5-Unit Best Bet. Good Luck to US!
|12-19-21||Packers v. Ravens +9.5||Top||31-30||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
Green Bay vs Baltimore
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Ravens plus the points.
The NFL season has reached Week 15 and every team is dealing with a multitude of injuries and made worse by the surge in COVID positive test results across the league. The Ravens have lost two straight games and standings have tightened up considerably with 4th place Steelers just 1.5-games behind and Bengals and Browns just one-game behind with four games to play. The Ravens past two losses have been by a combined three points.
Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback should Lamar not be able to make the start nursing a sprained ankle. You may remember we bet on the Ravens when he first started this season and they won outright. So, I am not basing this pick on the quarterback situation.
Packers scored 45 points in their laugher against the Bears, however the Packers are just 3-7 ATS after scoring 44 or more points.
Betting on teams using the money line that are coming off two consecutive tough defeats of fewer than seven points each to a divisional foe and taking on an opponent coming off a home win are 22-12 for 65%, but has averaged a sensational +150 underdog bet and has made the Dime Bettor a $22,000 profit.
Betting on winning record dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after Week 13 and facing a foe with a win percentage 75% or better and has covered the spread by at least 35 points over their last seven games has earned a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last seven seasons.
|12-19-21||Bengals v. Broncos -3||Top||15-10||Loss||-103||4 h 57 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Denver
4-UNIT Bet on the Denver Broncos
The last four times these teams collided the results were decided by a total of just nine points. The Bengals defeated the Broncos in their last trip to Mile High Stadium, but had lost the previous 10 games. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner takes a huge forward to securing a playoff spot while the loser takes a plunge into the depths of playoff pretenders.
Shout out to Ralph Michaels, who has been giving me some cool shoutouts on the Bet On It show almost weekly now, for the following angle. In a game lined within the 3’s, with one team coming off an ATS win and SU win and with the opponent coming off an ATS loss and SU loss has earned a solid 53-30 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons. Denver is coming off a home 38-10 scrimmage against the Lions, which was their largest home win in seven seasons. The Bengals lost 26-23 as a 1-point dog hosting the 49ers.
Denver is the bet.
|12-19-21||Texans v. Jaguars -5||Top||30-16||Loss||-115||1 h 50 m||Show|
Houston vs Jacksonville
4-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars minus the points
The dismissal of head coach Urban Meyer gives the Jaguars a deep exhale and can now focus more on the game of football. When a horrid coaching situation is removed from his coach responsibilities the team often finds greater motivation and finds ways to play far better than previous games. I think this is the Jaguars situation and they do have a solid defensive unit that gets after the quarterback. In fact, first game coaches in weeks 11 through the end of the regular season and facing an opponent that has four or fewer wins are 14-9 ATS for 61% and when favored an even better 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets last five seasons.
|12-13-21||Rams +3 v. Cardinals||Top||30-23||Win||100||2 h 54 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points
The Cardinals have won all 7 of their road games by double-digits and covered the spread. At home, though, 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Plus, only the Packers had a winning record in these five home games, which the Cardinals lost 24-21 as a 6.5-point home favorite in week 8.
The Rams are looking more and more like a NFC Conference finalist. They had lost three games to the spread by a combined total of 53.5 points. They first lost at home to the Tennessee Titans, who are in the thick of the AFC playoff’s top-seed, then back-to-back road losses to divisional foe San Francisco and then the Packers. Granted, it was against the offensively challenged Jacksonville Jaguars, but last week, they righted their ship and won 37-7 and covered as 13-point favorites.
My models rank the Rams and New England tied for the best overall team in the NFL. The Rams are fifth overall in total offense, while Arizona is 13th. Arizona ranks 6th in passing while the Rams come in a 11th. The Rams rank 11th with their ground attack, but the Cardinals are a miserable 27th and this is where the monumental advantages are for the Rams tonight.
The Rams defense is incredibly good and in my opinion, monumentally underrated. They rank best against the run and pass rush per my models. The Rams will not need to bring any safeties to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and that puts immense pressure on the Arizona passing attack. Aaron Donald (709 snaps) , Jordan Fuller (774 snaps), and Jalen Ramsey (776 snaps) have all played incredibly well and consistent this season. They have the experience too knowing the meaning of this game and their drive to the NFC Championship.
Rams head coach McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after having failed to covered the number in two of his last three games. Plus, he is 21-10-1 ATS in road games against NFC conference foes.
Betting on road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 of their last four games and is now facing an opponent hat has covered the number in three of their last four games has earned an incredible 27-5-1 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 19-5 ATS over the last three seasons.
|12-05-21||49ers -3 v. Seahawks||Top||23-30||Loss||-100||5 h 31 m||Show|
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
4:25 PM EST, December 5, 2021
Betting on teams that are in a conference matchup lined between the 3s and is facing an opponent, like Seattle, who has gone UNDER the posted total by a combined 35 or more points in total over their previous five games has earned a 70-33 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
Bettin on road favorites with a winning record that are facing a host that have lost four of their last five games has earned a 38-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
Eli Mitchell had 133 rushing yards last week, his fourth 100+ yard rushing game this year. Ricky Waters back in the 1992 season is last 49er rookies to turn that trick. The ground game for the 49ers has improved monumentally over the recent weeks and I believe it will only continue to get better. The 49wers also sports the best red zone efficiency in the NFL at 77% success rate. They have scored a 24 TDs on 31 trips into the red zone.
Deebo Samuel, who has emerged as one of the bigger offensive weapons from multiple positions on the field in the NFL, is expected to be out with a groin injury. Although a significant loss to the dynamic of the 49ers offense, it does not change my opinion on this game in the least. The last time Deebo was out for a game, several players stepped up their contributions. For instance, Trent Sherfield will certainly see more snaps.
Seahawks cannot run the ball with any success. For instance, they had five consecutive three-and-out possessions in Week 12 against Washington. A game they should have won, but how could they when they had just 10 first downs and less than 20 minutes of possession.
|11-29-21||Seahawks -1 v. Washington Football Team||Top||15-17||Loss||-116||2 h 37 m||Show|
Seattle vs Washington
8:20 PM EST, November 29, 2021
The following betting system has earned an insanely profitable 25-5 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record road teams after week 8 that are facing a host after having won two of their three games and has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season. This system is 14-2 ATS over the last five seasons.
Pete Carroll is Carroll is 9-1 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in two straight games as the coach of Seattle. He is also 16-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Last, he is 18-5 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.
Seattle has scored 13 points in their last two games, both double-digit losses to the NFC West divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals (23-13) and the Green Bay Packers (17-0). The last time Seattle lost back-to-back games by double digits was in Weeks 8-9 of the 2011 season. Since returning from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has not thrown a touchdown pass for only the second time in his career. He went three consecutive games without a touchdown pass in the 2016 season.
In the 2016 season following those three games that Wilson failed to connect on a scoring touchdown, they defeated the Buffalo Bills 31-25 and pushed the line as 6-point home favorites. Going back to the 2000 season, the Seahawks regardless of who was the QB have earned a 7-3-1 ATS record for 70% winning bets.
Seattle’s defense has been playing well and ranks second in the NFL with a 19.2 yards per point allowed ratio. This ratio means that an opponent needs to gain 19.2 yards to get one point on the scoreboard. The higher the value the better the defense with numbers approaching and exceeding 20 yards per point representing elite defenses and those ratios approaching 12 or lower representing struggling defensive units. Washington ranks 28th in the NFL with a 13.8 yards per point allowed and I do see the Seattle offense having a big night. The opposite is true on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle ranks 16th with a 15.4 yards per point and Washington is at 23rd with a 16.4 yards per point ratio. Seattle is the better team on both sides of the ball and we are getting a very cheap price at pick-em.
|11-14-21||Panthers +8.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-10||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
Carolina vs Arizona
4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points
Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is completing 64% or more of their passes and is coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt has earned a 52-25 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle works against Arizona and underscores the probability that Arizona will have some form of regression on offense.
Betting on road dogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 out of their last four games and facing a host that has covered the number in 3 of their last four games has earned a 38-19 ATS record good for 65.5% winners since 2014 and 10-5 ATS if our highway traveler is a double-digit underdog.
From the predictive models, we are looking for the Carolina offense to gain 125 or more rushing yards and for the Carolina defense to force two or more turnovers. In past games when the Panthers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 38-10-1 SU record and a 42-7 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. Perfect 4-0 ATS when installed as a road double-digit underdog.
|11-14-21||Vikings +3.5 v. Chargers||Top||27-20||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
Minnesota vs LA Chargers
4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Minnesota Vikings
Betting on teams after Week 8 and in a game that is priced within 3 points on either side of pick and is coming off a SU loss, but did cover the number has earned a 122-95 ATS record for 56.2% winners. Drilling down further, if our team is on the road, the record improves to 47-20- ATS for 70% winners since 2014.
Also, teams like the Vikings that are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and facing a host that is forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after week 8 has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winners since 2017.
|11-14-21||Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team||Top||19-29||Loss||-110||45 h 41 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Washington
1:00 PM EST, November 14, 2011
10-UNIT Best Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points
The Bucs are rolling and with a veteran GOAT Tom Brady at the lead, they will not go into Landover, Md thinking the game is won before it is played. Since Brady arrived the Bucs are 5-1 ATS with the average margin of victory 15.7 points. Once again the Bucs defense is playing well and this is not good news for the Football Team, who has not had multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games, and have had four on the season. Only Houston is worse with give games scoring one or fewer touchdowns.
Brady said, "I don't think there's one area we can't be better," and his teammates are focused on responding to that 36-27 loss to the Saints. "Come in and continue to put the work in every day regardless of what the outcome was in the Saints game," safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. "Just to come back here and continue to work because we have a nice stretch ahead of us. Come out here and continue to be better and go out there and win games." When I see statements in the press like these, it immediately reflects the focus the team has to get better – not to win the Super Bowl – the Super Bowl win occurs because the focus all season has been to get better each week.
The Bucs lead the NFL in passing offense gaining 327.5 yards per game and scoring at 32.5 PPG. Brady has thrown throwing for 2,650 yards and a league-high 25 touchdowns through eight games. The 44-year-old GOAT, for the first time in his career, has a plethora of playmakers to connect with on the field. Receiver Mike Evans, will be the third-fastest to 70 TDs in NFL history with his next TD catch. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight ends Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate round out the incredible depth the Bucs possess.
Betting on road favorites that allow 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a horrid defense allowing at least 27 PPG on the season has earned a 39-16-3 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five season. If our favorite is lined between 4.5 and 11.5 points the record soars to an incredible 21-4 ATS mark for 84% winning bets.
From my predictive models one projection stands out and has a high probability of being achieved in the game. Football team is 2-12 ATS in when they have allowed 400 or more total yards in games played over the last three seasons.
|11-07-21||Patriots v. Panthers +3.5||Top||24-6||Loss||-110||3 h 34 m||Show|
New England vs Carolina
1:00 PM EST, November 7, 2021
5-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points
Christian McCaffrey is expected to return from injured reserve this week and is eligible to play in this game. He has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and Carolina is just 1-4 in those games. McCaffrey has missed 18 of the team's past 24 games with injuries, but he is back for this game, and he is rested and healed. I expect him to be on a snap count with Chuba Hubbard, Royce Freeman and Ameer Abdullah to be actively involved in the game plan. Carolina can run different formations with and without McCaffery in the game and I do believe that alone will keep the Patriots guessing and off balance.
Zane Gonzalez, who has made 13 of 15 field-goal attempts and 13 of 14 extra points. He was 4 of 4 on field goals last week vs. Atlanta, including a career-long of 57 yards to earn NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors.
I like this bet as a 5- UNIT wager even if McCaffery is OUT for this game should there be a mishap in the warmup sessions. This play is far more about the Carolina defense matching up quite well against Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.
Carolina ran 47 rushing plays gaining 203 yards in their win against the Falcons in Week 8. The 47 rushing attempts was the fourth-highest single-game total in Panthers history and their highest since 2009. So, with McCaffery back in action, the Panthers will establish the ground attack against the Patriots run defense that ranks 16th in the league.
The Panthers have a tremendous pass rush and recorded three sacks last week and shut down a very good statistical QB in Matt Ryan. The Panthers defense ranks 2nd allowing 295.6 yards per game and their secondary is among the best. They rank third allowing just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2nd allowing 188.8 passing yards per game, and 4th with a 7.6% sack percentage.
This is a highly profitable money line betting angle that has posted a 35-9 record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the dime bettor a profit of $26,000. Bet on a team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and is coming off a road win over a divisional rival. If our team is playing at home, the record has been 23-6 for 79% winning bets.
From the predictive model, we learn that the Panthers are an incredible 54-9-2 ATS for 86% winning bets and 61-4 SU in home games scoring 24 or more points and winning the turnover battle (having fewer turnovers than the opponent) and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons.
Bet the Carolina Panthers as a 5- UNIT Best Bet
|10-24-21||Colts v. 49ers -3.5||Top||30-18||Loss||-100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points
49ers coming off the BYE and that is always a good thing for bettors to back knowing that Shanahan is 5-0 ATS coming off three losses. Plus, Colts on a 3 game ats win streak while the 49ers are on a three game ATS losing streak. Teams that are on a 3 or more-game ATS losing streak that are facing a foe on a 3 or more-game ATS win streak are 27-14 for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in a prime time slot, these teams are 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
Do not be misled by the Colts win over Houston. The Colts led the Texans by just 16 yards at the half and had a suspect 10-3 lead. Texans fumbled the ball away near midfield leading to a Colts score.
Despite the 49ers not having Garoppolo at the helm the 49ers lead the NFL averaging 7.3 yards gain after the catch. They rank 23rd averaging 5.8 air yards per catch, which is the distance form the line of scrimmage to the point on the field where the receiver catches the ball. So, with Garoppolo on the injured list, the offense under Trey Lance was reduced to a dink and dunk scheme. Now, he is back today, the 49ers full offensive playbook will be available, and I believe it will have a high dose of vertical crossing routes.
49ers will be effective with their ground attack, and this opens up play action, which they have run only 51 times this season. They rank 15th in play action pass plays and when Garoppolo is in platy action he becomes so much better.
From the predictive models, we learn that San Fran is 9-1 ATS in home games when gaining 250 or yards of total offense and scoring more than 24 points in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-24-21||Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers||Top||10-24||Loss||-117||1 h 2 m||Show|
Washington vs Green Bay
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points
Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets.
Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career.
|10-24-21||Chiefs -4 v. Titans||Top||3-27||Loss||-106||1 h 1 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Tennessee
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points
Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons.
Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game.
From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons.
|10-17-21||Cardinals +3 v. Browns||Top||37-14||Win||100||4 h 5 m||Show|
Arizona vs Cleveland
4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points
The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.
From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.
|10-17-21||Packers v. Bears +5.5||Top||24-14||Loss||-104||1 h 3 m||Show|
Green Bay vs Chicago
1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points
Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.
The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.
The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.
The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.
|10-17-21||Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +6.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||1 h 2 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Washington
1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points
Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.
Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.
Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|10-04-21||Raiders v. Chargers -3||Top||14-28||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995. Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most.
Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons.
LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-03-21||Seahawks v. 49ers -2.5||Top||28-21||Loss||-107||4 h 53 m||Show|
Seattle vs San Francisco
4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points
The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet.
From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons.
|10-03-21||Titans v. Jets +6||Top||24-27||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
Tennessee vs NY Jets
1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points
I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons.
The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson.
|09-27-21||Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5||21-41||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Dallas
8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points
Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent.
|09-26-21||Chargers v. Chiefs -7||Top||30-24||Loss||-100||1 h 4 m||Show|
LA Chargers vs Kansas City
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021
4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points
The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth.
Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack. The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).
The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce.
The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons.
From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points.
|09-26-21||Cardinals v. Jaguars +8.5||Top||31-19||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
Arizona vs Jacksonville
1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021
4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line.
Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak.
Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons.
|09-26-21||Bengals +3 v. Steelers||Top||24-10||Win||100||1 h 2 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021
4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|09-19-21||Cowboys v. Chargers -3||Top||20-17||Loss||-106||8 h 41 m||Show|
Dallas vs LA Chargers
4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Chargers
I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade.
The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon.
Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup.
Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons!
|09-19-21||49ers -3 v. Eagles||Top||17-11||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points
A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact.
Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets.
From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins +3.5||Top||35-0||Loss||-103||5 h 44 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Miami
4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points
I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line.
Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven.
Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.