Texans 5.5% POD

Miss State +5.5 5.5% POD

Colts +1 4.4% POD

Colts -145 5.5% NFL POD

Bills -117 5.5% POD

Colts -3 5.5% NFL PO D

Falcons +1.5 4.4% NFL POD

Under 47 5.5% 

Clemson +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing.  Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for.  Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards.  He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor.  Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical.  Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this.  They typically want to impress their new HC.

Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci.  They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry.  While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road.  They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country.  They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's.  BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball.  Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC.  They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense.  They don't rank well from  YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. 

This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin.  They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th.  I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC. 

Wisconsin -140 5.5% MAX POD

Kansas State +110 5.5% NCAAF POD

Giants +3.5 5.5% POD

Iowa State +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Miami -6 4.4% POD

BYU -125 4.5% NCAAF POD

Jets +3.5 5.5% NFL POD 

Cardinals +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Saints -2 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

Steelers +3

Wisconsin -150 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is lesst han ideal with rain/snow with 30mph gusts of winds, expect a conservative approach from both coaches although Minnesota does like to come out agressive in these games, and then try to hold on.  I think Wisconsin's defense is the best defense Minnesota has seen all year, and the weather really just doesn't favor them in this spot.  Minnesota will have to stop Jonathan Taylor, and on paper it looks like they can do it, but they literally have faced one team in the top 50 in rushing offense all season, and they gave up 35 points to Fresno State.  They then gave up 32 at home to Georgia Southern team that ranks 51st.  Nebraska was able to run on Minnesota and didn't have Adrien Martinez, and Penn State was able to rush for 178 on just 29 carries.  Wisconsin comes into this game with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 200+ yards in each of his last 3 games, and should have another big game here.

Minnesota did beat Wisconsin last year, but that was a down Wisconsin team, and I think Wisconsin will only use that to their advantage.  Minnesota also needed a +4 TO margin game in order to get that win.  I think Wisconsin takes care of the ball here on the road, and Wisconsin should be able to dominate in the trenches and on third down, which should help them wear out this Minnesota defense.  Wisconsin is +25% on third downs compared to Minnesota who is just +11% against worse opponents.  If you don't have a running QB which Minnesota does not you can't run on Wisconsin.  It also doesn't help that Minnesota is 123rd in power success rate on defense and 103rd in stuff rate going up against a big defensive line in Wisconsin.  Minnesota has been a nice story, but I think the weather situation in this game is just too much to overcome.

Ole Miss +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I always enjoy the college game more on Thanksgiving night, and we have gotten this match-up the last few years.  This is a huge game for the state of Mississippi, and I think we have a coaching advantage when you look at Ole Miss and what they have on their staff and the fact that they are sticking around after this season, and they also have 12 days to prepare compared with Miss State who has just 5.  What they have been able to do down the stretch of the season is improve their team.  On the other side we see Joe Morehead possibly out of a job if he doesn't win this game to get to a bowl, and that creates a lot more pressure for Miss State in my opinion.  Matt Luke already knows he's going to be back, but I think that gives him momentum in this game for recruiting, and the players are highly motivated to knock their rival out of a bowl game after losing this game last year where Ole Miss had a chance to go bowling with a win, and lost.  This is just a different Ole Miss team that has found their identity with John Rhys Plumlee.

Ole Miss running game is legit behind John Rhys Plumlee they are top 10 in rushing, and Miss State's defense has allowed 33.5 points per game against a top 50 rushing offense. Bob Shoops defense loves to blitz and it has left them exposed in the running game especially against mobile QBs.  Bo Nix got 56 yards on just 7 carries, Kellen Mond got 76 yards on 9 carries, and they have given up 6 rushing TD's to opping QB's.  That's a huge problem with Plumlee at Qb, and now you could say that Ole Miss offense is one dimensional, but Ole Miss at least does not turn the ball over, and they make up for that by having a top 50 run defense to go up against Miss State's rushign attack, while Miss State ranks 95th vs. the run.  Miss State also allowed 35.5 points on average to non top 75 passing teams which Ole Miss is.

Miss State's offense obviously runs the ball here 60% of the time, but they are going up against a top 50 run defense.  Ole Miss defense has given up 32ppg to top 50 rushing offenses, which is very similar to what Miss State gives up, but LSU and Alabama are dramatically throwing those numbers off.  Ole Miss actually gave both opponents a game, and forced both opponents to play their starters the entire game.  With all of that said Ole Miss still has better rushing offense and defensive nubmers overall and against common opponents, and in conference play they are +1.63 yards per carry compared to Miss State who is +0.12ypc.  Miss State really got a lot of those numbers by bullying teams like Arkansas, and Kentucky earlier in the season.  Miss State's passing attack is nothing to get exciteda bout and their receiving corp do not do the QB's any favors with tons of drops on the season. Ole Miss vs. teams not in the top 75 in QB rating have allowed just 18 points per game on average in those games.  They also have to defend these QB's from running, and it's improtant to know that Ole Miss has given up just 1 rushing TD all year and that was to a healthy Tua.

I do like to look at common opponents this far into the season, and Ole Miss and Miss State are just a notch below A&M and Auburn in their respected division in the SEC.  That's who they would have to jump over, and when we look at these two teams they both played them, and Ole Miss lost by 7 and 6 points, while Miss State lost by 23 and 19.  That again goes into coaching and why I think Ole Miss has the better staff.

We need to talk red zone in a game like this, and Miss State's offense although slightly better in TD% in conference play 65% to 62.5% for Ole Miss that's largely in part to having two power running QB's,  they give up 67% TD percentage while Ole Miss comes in at 44%.  Ole Miss again surprisingly has the better defense especially against the run, which is a huge key in this game.  Miss State vs. top 50 run defense average just 22.2 points per game.  They topped 30 points 2x, one game against Southern Miss, and the other against Texas A&M in garbage time as they trailed 35-10 before losing 49-30.  

Lastly and most importantly is turnover margin.  Again Ole Miss comes out in a better situation.  Ole Miss just 12 TO's lost on the season, 4 in 4 road games and 8 in 7 conference games where they were +1 TO Margin.  Miss State has lost 20 on the season, which includes 15 in 7 conference games, where they are -7 TO margin.  There were 7 games where they had 2 or more TO's in a game.

Eagles -115 5.5% NFL POD

Colts -135 5.5% NFL POD

Baylor +10.5 4.4% ncaaf pod

Oklahoma has a fantastic offense once again and you have to give Lincoln Riley a lot of credit.  Actually everyone already does that for us. He did have to replace another QB, but this time 4 of 5 offensive linemen, and that really hasn’t shown up yet this year, because Oklahoma has not faced a top defense.  They faced one team in the top 50 in rushing defense, which was West Virginia who ranks 47th, and they rank 116th vs. the pass. They faced one team in the top 50 in passing defense, Kansas State, and they lost. I know they put up 40+ points, but Kansas State ranks 111th vs. the run.  Baylor’s defense ranks 17th vs. the run, and 11th vs. the pass, and they rank 19th at sack %, and they do that without a lot of blitzing.  

Oklahoma’s offense is really all about defending two guys.  Jalen Hurts, make him a passer. He nearly threw 3 interceptions in the first quarter against Iowa State who runs a ton of cover 3.  Well, Baylor will run the same thing, but they can get pressure on Hurts with their DL led by James Lynch. I give all the credit in the world to Jalen Hurts who stuck around at Alabama and transferred at the end of the season, but he just doesn’t make good decisions.  We have seen this story before it is what got him benched at Alabama, and it appears not much has changed, and I think it’s because he has not played in a lot of challenging games over his career. CeeDee Lamb is the other guy on this Oklahoma offense you have to worry about, and I believe Baylor has a CB that can slow him down in Jameson Houston who has held two elite WR in check already this season.  Jalen Reagor and Tylan Wallace combined for just 7 catches and 77 yards. Lamb is a different animal, but Baylor is a really good tackling team and they rank 4th in the country in explosive pass defense, which should help them tremendously in bottling up this Oklahoma offense. I think it’s okay to let them get their yards, and then create mistakes when Oklahoma is in the red zone it’s something Baylor has done really well.  We saw Jalen do this in the Texas game, and Texas by no means has a great defense this year. Oklahoma’s offense is -21% TD percentage in the red zone on the road, and their defense is -15% on the road vs. their home splits.

Oklahoma’s defense is not any better than a year ago it seems to me.  The one worry I have in this game is Baylor’s offensive line that has not been good.  They really have to tire out a defensive line before Brewer has any serious time to throw the ball.  I think they can have success doing that here, but expect to see a conservative approach from Baylor’s offense early.  They do feature the talent to challenge this defense ranking top 20 in rushing play explosiveness. We saw what Iowa State did in the running game to open the second half and BAylor’s QB is absolutely another threat in the running game that Oklahoma has to worry about.  Baylor also has Mimms at WR who has had monster games against Oklahoma over his career, 22 receptions for 330 yards. Mimms won them the game at TCU last week.  

Baylor is a team that fights until the end and that’s the type of team I want my money on.  Matt Rhule has this team fighting, and last week it showed where they could have lost the game against TCU so many times.  They are back home and a better team here. They got up 21-0 on Iowa State earlier this year, and nobody but Oklahoma has done that to Iowa State.  Baylor believes, because they did it before. In 2017 they lost 48-41 in Rhule’s first year. They got down 21-0, and 28-7 and came back and took the lead then Oklahoma got up 17, and Baylor came back to make a game of it again.  This team fights, they tackle well and have a lot of the ingredients to pull an upset. I think this will be a tight game throughout, and if Baylor can just get it to the 4th quarter they’ll have a shot for the upset.

Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD

Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD

Washington +3.5 @-115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Before we even break this game down it is important to know that Washington has consistently out recruited Utah.  Washington has more talent ranking 15th, 21, and 20th in recruiting the last 3 years, while Utah ranked 37th, 50th, and 51st.  Utah plays above their talent rating because of a good home field advantage, and top 10 coaching. Those advantages don’t exist in this game. 

Washington was one of only a few teams in the country that had to open the season with 8 straight games, and now they are off a bye where Chris Peterson is 18-0 in his career during the regular season, 11-7 ATS.  They had a 2 TD lead entering the 4th quarter against Oregon at home. Oregon very similar team to Utah as far as their statistical profile. Both teams rank in the TOP 25 in YPP offense, and defense, with similar strength of schedules.  Washington should have won and covered that game, but I think the 8 straight games wore them out by the 4th quarter. All in all they still held Oregon to 39% rushing success rate, which is above average, and Oregon a better running team than Utah ranking 33rd in YPC against a tougher opponent run defense than Utah, but they are very similar.  I think the extra rest will help Washington here late in the game. It also helps that Utah’s QB Tyler Huntley is not 100%. It’s the reason they took him out of the game in the second half and changed the offensive strategy last week. Washington’s defense also struggled late against the rushing offense of Oregon, but Oregon has an elite offensive line, they rank top in havoc rate allowed, and rank top 50 in power success rate, which showed late in the game.  Utah ranks 100th in power success rate.

Utah’s defense can not be ignored, but they have yet to face a team in the top 50 in both rushing ypc, and QB rating.  They haven’t faced an offensive line this good either. Washington ranks 17th in havoc rate allowed and 34th ins ack % allowed.  Utah’s strength is in their defensive line. They love to create havoc, but they have not been sacking the QB ranking 77th that’s worse than Oregon’s rankings.  Give Jacob Eason time, and he’s going to find his receivers. I also think he’s going to get his Sr. WR Aaron Fuller back here, although he’s listed as questionable still he has practiced this week.  Washington also has the balance with their running game, which features Salvon Ahmed, averaging over 6 yards per carry. The last two times Utah visited Washington they were not able to stop the run allowing 177 yards and 199 yards, and that’s without the threat of the pass that Jacob Eason brings.

Special Teams is another category that can not be ignored.  Typically Utah is among the best in the nation, but that’s just not the case this year. They rank 96th in special teams this year, while Washington ranks 2nd.  A lot of hidden yardage here, and the kicking game for Washington has been perfect while Utah kickers are just 7-11 and the punting has averaged less than 40 yards per punt.  Washington also has the edge i n TO margin ranking 19th, compared to Utah’s 25th ranking, but last year in their two matchups they turned the ball over 6 times. Washington has had the advantage in TO margin in the majority of their meetings, and I feel like they will have it again in this one. 

Chiefs +5.5 5.5% POD

Michigan State +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD +190 1% Bonus

This is a dreadful spot for Penn State off two physical games against Iowa and Michigan where their defense saw 153 plays, now they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to face a Michigan State team that has their number and is off a bye.  They bye could have come at a better time for Michigan State in my opinion after they were in the season’s worst scheduling spot. Name a team that had a tougher back to back road stretch than Michigan State having to face Ohio State, and Wisconsin on the road.  They lost both SU & ATS, and there is no harm in that.  

Penn State should have lost at IOwa they were outgained on the day, Michigan should have taken them to over time, and Michigan out gained them 417 to 283.  Yet Penn State won both. I think their luck runs out here, and if you compare Michigan State with Iowa. On paper you’d think they are the same team, but Michigan State actually has the better defense against the tougher schedule.  Michigan State ranks 18th in YPP allowed, and Iowa ranks 19th, but Iowa has not faced offenses with an average opponent YPP ranking 75th, compared to Michigan State’s 57.42. The run defenses which are the key to stopping Penn State right now with an inexperienced QB in Clifford still making his way.  Iowa ranked 22nd, and they gave up 170 to Penn State at home, and many on third and short as Penn State went 10-19 on third down. Iowa ranked 127th in power success rate defense. Michigan State is flat out better at stopping the run ranking 25th, but have faced two of the best running teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State already.  Michigan State ranks 22nd in power success rate defensive line, and they are only allowing 38% conversions on third down which is great when you consider their opponents average 44.23%. Michigan State actually matches up better than Iowa, because they should stop Penn State on third down and if they are in passing situations Michigan State has a pass rush, ranking 24th in sack % compared to Iowa who only ranked 94th.  Penn State does have issues protecting the QB ranking 78th in sack % allowed, and that’s why they have chosen to lean on the running game. If it’s third and short or third and long Michigan State’s defense has the edge.  

How about Michigan State’s offense, well they have faced some of the top defenses in the nation an average 37th ranked ypp defense, and have gone 0-3 against top 40 units.  However, Penn State’s defense can be beat. We saw Michigan move the ball on them, and we saw Iowa move the ball on them, both have veteran QB’s just like Michigan State in Brian Lewerke.  Lewerke has had great success against Penn State the last two years he threw for 659 yards 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He’s having a better year this year and it’s not amazing, but he’s taking care of the ball 11 TD’s to just 3 INT’s, which was another reason Iowa lost that game. 

Michigan State has the nation’s best punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging over 46 yards per punt.  This will be a huge advantage making a Penn State offense that is nothing special march extra yardage to score points.  I think Michigan State will have a good game plan coming off the bye, and their offense will look a bit better than it did in their last two games.  

Colts -1 5.5% NFL POD

Cardinals +3 -120 5.5% 

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Stock for Penn State probably could not be higher right now after the last two weeks, and Iowa after their performance against Michigan could not be lower, but I watched that game, and they just had a bad game.  Stanley threw 3 interceptions, and the offensive line played poorly, but they still had chances to win at the end of the game. Iowa was the better team than Michigan. Stanley is a veteran QB, that has only thrown 2 or more INT’s twice in a game and I don’t see him making those mistakes back at home where he has a 34 TD to 8 INT’s over his career.  Penn State has shown some red flags this season which are buried. Against Buffalo, a physical team in the trenches, much like Iowa they were -106 yards rushing and were trailing at the half at home and being outgained. Against Pitt at home they were -150 yards passing. I could totally see Nathan Stanley having a great game here on Saturday night. 

Penn State really hasn’t proven anything?  Yeah they rank #3 in total defense and that’s what is carrying them right now as they lack a dominant RB, and they have an inexperienced QB.  However, Penn STate has faced an average ypp offense ranking 93.5, and opponent average ypc offense ranking 82.75, and an opponent average QB rating ranking 93.25.  Iowa is easily the most balanced attack that Penn State’s defense has seen. Penn State has faced Iowa State, and Michigan on the road so far. I just don’t know if I can trust Penn State with an inexperienced QB on the road against an Iowa defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays.  They rank 2nd in the nation in 20+ yard plays allowed, and that’s what Penn State relies on in their offense right now. I just expect this to be a fight through 4 quarters with Iowa leading most of the way. Since 2000, Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS as a home dog, and they are 25-15-2 ATS following a SU loss in the last 10 years.  Iowa actually outgained Penn State on the road last year in their 6 point loss. 

Steelers +3.5 5.5% POD

Pitt +5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Duke off a huge win over Virginia Tech as a dog on national TV last Friday, and Pitt just got by Delaware 17-14, but that was expected after beating UCF the week before, benching their starting QB, and half of their starters to get healthy for this game.  Pitt has faced a tougher schedule by far with 3 quality opponents compared to Duke’s 1 quality opponent. I think these offenses are about even, but Pitt is stronger defensively ranking 32nd in YPP allowed against an average offense ranking 45th, compared to Duke’s 57th ranking, and 69th opponent average offense.  Duke’s defense weakness is Pitt’s offensive strength, and Duke’s offensive strength is Pitt’s defensive strength.

Pitt has owned the series and Narduzzi has owned Cutcliffe.  Pitt is a different style team this year, and it actually lines up better in the matchups for them.  Duke’s weakness and inexperience is in the secondary. They really have not been tested, but Pitt features a new offense led by OC Mark Whipple, and the top passing duo in FBS with Maruice French and Taysir Mack.  I honestly think Pitt can be more balanced here than Duke can. Quentin Harris has been great, but he can’t stretch the field, and against top defenses like Pitt who can stop the run, and stop the pass Duke tends to struggle to put up points.  Harris is Duke’s offense he leads the team in rushing yards, and attempts, and they go up against the 25th ranked rushing defense, and a defense that is second in the country with 24 sacks, and has a 23.5% havoc rate. Duke also starts two red shirt freshman at the tackle position, and they’ve played well so far protecting the QB, but on average they have faced #81.6 sack % defense, and Pitt ranks 4th. 

LIONS +7.5 5.5% NFL POD

Saints +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Buffalo +14.5 4.4% POD

There is really good value here on Buffalo who lost last week as a road favorite (buy low), and fading Temple who won at home as a home dog (sell high).  At this point we don't know much about Temple, and that game against Maryland (over rated) could have went either way, but they stopped Maryland twice at the goal line, and their QB Anthony Russo threw another pick, but should have thrown two.  This is a sandwhich game for Temple too as they have Georgia Tech on deck.  Georgia Tech's Head Coach was the Temple coach last year.  So while Temple players remember losing to Buffalo last year some might have their eye on Georgia Tech the following week. 

Rod Carey is a fabulous coach, and comes over from Northern Illinois, who beat Buffalo and HC Lance Leipold in the MAC Championship game a year ago by 1 point, and in 2018 they beat Buffalo 14-13.  Buffalo blew a 29-10 lead in the MAC Championship.  

Buffalo is strong in the trenches, and Carey has stated it's the best OL and DL they have faced.  There are questions at QB for Buffalo who is starting a freshman, but I think he plays better here at home, and I think the running game continues to have success.  The OL returns 4 of 5 guys, and this is a group that ran the ball for 183 yards at Penn State, and led at the half before Penn State dominated the second half when they started throwing the ball.  I don't know if Carey trusts Russo to take advantage of Buffalo's weakness in the secondary.  Russo is very turnover prone, and I think he might throw 2 interceptions here today setting up Buffalo to have a shot at the upset. 

Lions +2 5.5% POD

Iowa State +108 5% NCAAF POD

I was hoping to see the line that was 2.5 get to 3, but it’s now going back to where the line opened when Iowa State was a 1 point favorite.  I think there is value with Iowa State coming off a near loss to FCS Northern Iowa in week 1 in triple OT, and then getting a bye. For one most people will look to fade a team almost losing to an FCS foe, but Northern Iowa is a very good FCS team.  Iowa has had problems with them in the past, and Iowa lost to North Dakota State back in 2016, another FCS opponent so it’s not that unusual. Also, Iowa State really out played Northern IOwa as they outgained them by 200 yards. Meanwhile Iowa beat Miami Ohio, and Rutgers.  So I don’t really understand what has changed so much that Iowa State would not still be favored. 

College GameDay will be here for the first time ever and that’s a big deal for Iowa fans.  We saw it last year when GameDay made their first trip to Washington State when they hosted Oregon, and Washington State dominated especially early.  That’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Iowa State. I really like head coach Matt Campbell, and he’s 9-2 ATS as a dog here, they blew the 2017 game at home 41-44, and lost at Iowa 13-3.  6 of the last 8 meetings have been close, but Iowa State has had a tough time getting over the hump.

Iowa State’s defense is a major reason why I like them here.  They have the best linebackers in the Big 12, and an All Big 12 nose tackle which anchors the 3-3-5 defense in Ray Lima.  Lima will be going up against a red shirt freshman at Center who was recruited to play DL and is making just his third start.  It’s a lot to ask because normally you don’t have a defender lined up right in front of you when you face a 4-3. Iowa State also likes to show confusion at the line and brings different linebackers on blitzes, and I think that will have a big impact on an inexperienced Center. 

Panthers +2 4.4% NFL POD 

Texas State +7 4.4% NCAAF POD

Wyoming is just 2-4 ATS under Boh as a road favorite, and they have to do it this week after a home upset of Missouri where their fans rushed the field.  First of all that was a completely misleading final. So many things happened in that game including turnovers from Missouri that led to 10 points, but also took away 14 points form Missouri which was a 24 point swing.

Texas State stays in their home state, and have 2 extra days to prepare and rest which is a big deal in my opinion.  I really like the head coach hiring of Jake Savital, and I think their offense will look a lot better this week against Wyomin’s secondary, a unit that lost two 4 year starters who were the glue of that defense.  It certainly showed as Kelly Bryant passed for 423 yards, and Bryant is not really known for his arm. In all they lost 100 starters in the secondary, and it will be a tough match-up for Wyoming as Texas State under OC Bob Stitt, and HC Spavital have made it pretty clear they will throw the ball.

Texas State did not play well at Texas A&M, but I’m going to give them a pass considering they played a borderline top 10 team, on the road at night @ Kyle Field in front of 98,000 fans.  What I like most about Texas State is they return 10 starters from a unit that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed facing an average opponent offense ranking 66th in ypp on offense. They have the best LB’s in the Sun Belt, and they go up against a one dimensional Wyoming unit.  I don’t think SEan Chambers can pass the ball he was 6-16, and I think it will lead to some mistakes by Wyoming.

Coastal Carolina +6 4.4% NCAAF POD

Eastern MIchigan has just 10 returning starters as they head out on the road as the MAC faces off against the Sun Belt.  The Sun Belt has gone 12-9 against the MAC, but the battles have been pretty even. I have tremendous respect for Chis Creighton and what he’s achieved here at Eastern Michigan, but with 10 returning starters I have questions.  This team has played in a lot of close games, and has relied on the defense on the road, but I’m predicting they take a step back, and they have a tough task against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal returns 15 starters, and has more depth than last year and 5 of their 9 losses were by 8 points or less. When depth was less of an issue Coastal defeated UAB 47-24 at home in week 2, and UAB went on to go 11-3.  I think Coastal has a shot to pull the upset here. The offense should improve and was better than their final numbers, and the defense returns 8 starters. They just missed out on a bowl game last year and improve from #111 in experience to #51.  Playing a lot of young guys last year will pay dividends this year.

UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD

3’s popped up again at a few locations, and I’m going to grab the Bruins here.  These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright.  I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don’t really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA was breaking in an entirely new system, and they lost their QB halfway through the game.  This season they return 19 starters, and are in Chip Kelly’s second year of the system, and we saw improvements down the stretch as the offense averaged 432 yards per game over their last 8 compared to 312 over the first 4. They also faced a top 10 strength of schedule. Power 5 head coaches have done really well in their second year as a dog over the past 4 years 99-80 ATS, and I like the fact that UCLA is getting points here.  

Cincinnati had a great year last year and I have been extremely impressed with Luke Fickell taking Cinci to an 11-2 season a year ago.  They had one of the weaker schedules however, and when you compare against UCLA it is very obvious. Cincinnati's offense faced an average 75th ranked YPP defense, compared to UCLA’S 40TH opponent average.  Their defense faced an average 67th opponent YPP offense, and that is inflated by facing Central Florida. Compare that against UCLA opponent offense ranking 53rd. It’s also worth noting that Cinci has a much bigger game on deck at Ohio State. 

Patriots -132 5.5% NFL POD 

Patriots/Rams Under 56.5 5.5% POD

Saints -3 5.5% NFL POD

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Cowboys +7 4.4% POD

Clemson +6 5.5% NCAAF POD 

I absolutely think Clemson has the ingredients to upset Alabama.  Alabama has shown some vulnerabilities in the last few games against worse teams.  Looking at Clemson’s body of work and statistical resume, they mostly mirror Georgia on offense, and Miss State on defense.  Georgia has a weakness in stopping the run, and Alabama exploited it as they rank 53rd while Clemson ranks #1. Miss State who held Alabama to 24 points in their own building has one weakness and that’s the QB play, and we already know that Trevor Lawrence is cool calm, and has an NFL arm.  He threw for 327 yards against Notre Dame, a team that ranked 4th vs. the pass. Alabama’s secondary is definitely vulnerable as they lost a ton of talent to the NFL last year. They really only played two offenses that could run and pass all year. That came against Georgia and Oklahoma who both put up big offensive numbers on them.  Oklahoma got behind 28-0, but out played Alabama in quarters 2, 3, and 4. Clemson also has an advantage as Alabama ranks 72nd in explosive defense. They rank 46th in explosive run defense specifically, so Clemson, a team that has talent at WR with Tee Higgins, a big body guy, Justyn Ross, the speedy guy, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfro the third down guys to go along with Travis Etienne at RB and QB Trevor Lawrence runs the RPO as good as anyone I have seen all year.

Alabama’s offense is their best that I can ever remember, but they face the best defense they have faced all year in this game.  The front 7 is the strength of Clemson, and at some point Tua is going to have to make plays in this game. I do think the weakness for Clemson is in pass defense, but it’s hard to even know that for sure as they also did not play in a lot of close games, but Jake Bentley, South Carolina put up 35 points and 510 yards passing including a couple of plays over 67 yards.  I think Tua will have a big play or two in this game so if you have a prop option to take him over 45 yards for longest pass I would take it. Clemson does have an explosive defense ranked 11t in allowing explosive plays, but I think their schedule has a lot to do with it. Clemson did not face a balanced offense all year until Notre Dame, but Notre Dame’s weakness offensively was running the ball ranking 45th.  Clemson has shut down the 3 top 20 rushing offenses they faced, but all 3 did not have any QB play with Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, and Pitt combining for 38 total points. Again value for the over, because we have seen Clemson struggle against a team that can throw the ball.

Common opponents - Texas A&M, and Louisville.  You could argue Alabama played better against A&M, and Clemson played better against Louisville.  Clemson actually played better in the trenches on the road than Alabama did at home. Clemson +44 yards holding A&M to 71 yards rushing while Alabama -21 yards giving up 130 rushing yards.  Clemson also started Kelly Bryant at QB in that game, and it was their first road game against Jimbo Fisher who was very experienced in facing Clemson. Against Louisville, Alabama had an advantage of preparing for them all off season and they out gained them running the ball 222 to 16.  Clemson, outgained them on the ground 492 to 81 yards.

The key here is going to be pass rush for both teams.  Christina Miller is ? for Alabama with a hamstring and I have a hard time believing if he plays he will be effective, and will probably hurt it again.  Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence is suspended, but his spot is given up to Sr. Albert Huggins, a better pass rusher which I feel helps them more in this matchup.  I think Tua is going to make a mistake in this game. We saw Georgia really pressure Tua and their pass rush ranked 88th. I think DC Venables can take a lot from that matchup and Tua tends to rush some decisions and try to play hero which could lead to a turnover in this game.  Down the stretch Alabama was -3 in TO margin over their last 6 games while Clemson was +3 over their last 6 games.

Special Teams edge to Alabama, but their punter is not good, and Nick Saban does not really have a lot of confidence in his kicker.  Alabama has the potential to return a kick for a TD, as Clemson has given up 2 this season. I give Clemson the edge in the red zone as they have better #’s for TD % on both offense and defense with a total edge of 20% and their offense has only improved since Lawrence took over.  They also have been penalized fewer. Alabama was penalized 9 times in their game against Oklahoma which clearly cost them the cover.

Last but not least is coaching.  Obviously Nick Saban is going to get the edge over Dabo Swinney, but when Saban does not have extra time to prepare which he doesn’t here his defense has not played well against Clemson.  In the first National Championship Saban knew this and had to steal a possession by kicking an onside kick, and the next year Clemson won on the last play of the game 35-31. I think both of these offenses have been better than those two games.  Last year Clemson’s offense was completely one dimensional and they lost 24-6 with Saban having extra time to prepare. However, the assistants is the key here, and they have a HUGE advantage for Clemson. This is the 4th time in 4 years they are strategizing for this game.  Clemson has 2 co-OC’s who have been here since 2015 as Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott are having their best season. They will go up against an inexperienced Alabama DC in Tosh Lupoi, 2nd year, and Pete Golding 1st year. Alabama also has a first time offensive coordinator in MIke Locksley who also has already taken the Maryland job.  He’s done a great job, but he goes up against Brent Venable who has been with Clemson since 2012.

Chargers +3 4.4% NFL POD

Cowboys -125 5.5% NFL POD

Michigan State +1.5 5.5% POD

It has been a rough go of it with these max plays, and we got very unlikely in my opinion and should have covered with Alabama -14, and Iowa State +125, Iowa State covered on the spread not the ML.  Here we are again, and I am going to back the team with the better defense. 

There is value on Michigan State in my opinion.  The discussion will be how bad their offense has been, but they have had a ton of injuries, and coming into this game I would predict that they have some things figured out.  I expect they will get back to running the ball with LJ Scott expected to go along with QB Brian Lewerke.  Oregon's weakness is in run defense.  They ranked 48th in rushing yards per carry, but they faced a very easy schedule with an opponent ypc average of 83rd.  Compare that with MIchigan State's run defense which ranks 2nd facing an opponent ypc average of 49.16.  When held under 4 yards per carry, Oregon is only 1-4 this season with the only win coming against San Jose State.  Michigan State has only allowed 1 team over that mark, Penn State, a game they still won on the road.

Michigan State has faced 5 really good offenses, and they held up in each one against OHio State, Penn State, Purdue, Arizona State, and Nebraska allowing 16.2 ppg on average in those games.  There is no reason to believe they can't do the same here.  I think their offense is undervalued because of the injuries.  The extra time off allowed Michigan State to get healthier, but also work in some of the younger guys with confidence at the skill position.  Watch out for Darrell Stewart, who only had 368 yards receiving on the season to have a big day.  Also Mark D'antoio a far better coach than Cristobal.  He's 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl games over the past 6 years with their only loss to Alabama.  Oregon lost as a big favorite 28-38 to Boise a season ago.

Alabama -14 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama with extra preparation under Nick Saban has been a very profitable ATS situation.  I think Alabama's defense really plays a great game here and give Oklahoma and Kyler Murray issues all day.  I think there is something to be said about Oklahoma getting the Heisman Trophy award to Kyler Murray over Tua, and Oklahoma getting the Joe Moore award for the best offensive line.

The last two times Alabama was a double digit favorite in the playoff they won by 17 and 38 points.  Nick Saban is not going to keep his foot off the gas here knowing how dangerous the Oklahoma offense is.  There will be talks about Alabama's struggles against mobile QB's, but that is old news.  Alabama now prepares against 2 mobile QB's in practice with Jalen Hurts, and Tua, and this is extra time for Alabama to prepare for Murray.  Alabama certainly has the athletes to contain Murry on the outside, and I think the defense dominates this game while Alabama's offense may not punt in this game.

I think the -14 is giving us value here as Alabama did not play great down the stretch, but the time off gives them a chance to regroup offensively.

Iowa State +125 5.5% POD

Iowa State has played 4 similar offenses this year and have covered each of the 4 against Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.  Some would say they are built to beat this type of offense, and I would  agree.  They are well coached by Matt Campbell, and are from the much stronger conference.  The PAC 12 went 3-4 -12.4 points per game vs. non-conference P5 opponents while Big 12 was +2.98 points per game, and against G5 conferences the PAC 12 went 8-5 and 6-8 ATS while Big 12 went 10-0, and 7-2-1 ATS outscoring G5 opponents by more than 9 points per game compared to the PAC 12.

The motivation has to be on the side of Iowa State here, when you factor in Washington State felt like they should have been playing in one of the New Years Six Bowl games, and have been concentrating more on recruiting than bowl preparation.  Part of that is Mike Leach's system is much more simple to run, and does not demand extra preparation.  That only makes it easier for opponents to plan for it which is why he has been bad in bowl games 3-8 ATS over his career, and 1-7 ATS over the last 8.

Coaching advantage for this situation goes to Matt Campbell and Iowa State who is very excited to be here.  Campbell is one of the hottest coaches going 36-21-2 ATS over the last 5 years. He was smart enough to see the potential of the team in week 5 when he made a QB switch to Brock Purdy after they average just 17.5 points per game.  With Purdy over the last 8 games they averaged 31.5 points per game and +1.26 yards per play which is a huge #, which is the difference between Alabama's offense and Miami's offense.  I'm not worried about the spread here Iowa State wins outright. 

Duke +3.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to unpack in this game, but I am going to start with bettin value.  Duke lost it's last two games by a combined score of 94-13.  They lost their last game by 30+ and Temple won their last game by 30+, Value on Duke here, who was really unhealthy down the stretch, and I think Daniel Jones their NFL caliber QB was hurt all season long, and the extra time to rest is certainly a good thing for this offense.  They have a key player on the defense in Giles-Harris who is questionable, but I'm betting he plays along with Humphreys who are two key players on the defense.  THey are NFL caliber LB's, and I'm not worried about them sitting out to protect their health for a possible NFL draft.  Humphrey's said - "I don't think that's a Duke thing," Humphreys said Tuesday. "We're going to play every game that we can. We're going to do it because we love the guys around us. I don't think that will happen at Duke."  The defense is healthier, they started the season allowing just 341 yards the first 7 games, and allowed 529 the last 5.  I think that changes here. 

Duke, and coach David Cutcliffe with extra time to prepare has been a different team.  Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in his career in bowl games, and at Duke he has eclipsed 31 points each time they have gotten here.  There is concern that Duke's offense won't show up, but in two games against decent opponents Temple gave up 45 points to Boston College, and 52 to Central Florida.  I'm not going to buy in too much to Duke's offensive struggles as injuries to their QB had a big impact on their stats this season.  Temple also has an interim coach Ed Foley, who will not get the job, but I hear is very pumped up for this bowl game.  He was in 2016 as well in a similar situation where Temple won their last 6 games, they won 6 of 7 here, and they lost to Wake Forest, an ACC team as 12 point favorites. Here they are 3.5 point favorites against another ACC team.  The ACC went 18-4 +15.7 points per game and 12-9-2 ATS vs. Group of 5 teams, and as mentioned before Temple did not win or cover in their only game against the ACC this year. 

To put a bow on this game.  Temple needs to force turnovers to win.  They forced 12 in their final 3 games, but Duke has only turned the ball over 17 times all season.  Temple +10 in wins and -5 in losses.  Temple, I think more likely to lose the TO battle as they have turned the ball over in every game this season.  Temple also committing +3.5 more penalties, they are worse in third down offense, defense and red zone offense TD%.  I think the wrong team is favored.  If I hear Giles-Harris is a GO, I'll be back for a ML play. 

Packers -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Wake Forest +145 5.5% MAX POD

I mentioned on my podcast how inconsistent Wake Forest was this year, and it had a lot to do with injuries as they sent 13 guys to the season ending injury list.  However, Dave Clawson is a great head coach and they were able to win 2 road games in their last 3 games to close the year to get to a bowl game.  I like 6-6 teams who want to finish the season with a winning record in a bowl game, and Wake Forest falls into that.

Memphis is in turmoil with 3 assistant coaches leaving and their star RB Darrell Henderson sitting out to get ready for the NFL draft.  That is all in the number, and Memphis has plenty of other talent at RB position.  However, Wake Forest down the stretch held 3 teams in check on the ground including Pitt who is the #11 ranked rushing team with similar #'s and strength of schedule to Memphis #3 rushing offense.  They held their last 3 opponents to 2.8 ypc, and that's coaching. Dave Clawson 2-0 in bowl games the last two years with Wake Forest, and it's a big accomplishment if they can win a third in a row.

I also like the fact that Wake's offense is a bit under the radar here, and I think they'll score a bunch of points.  The offense really woke up down the stretch when Jamie Newman, dual threat QB took over for injured Sam Hartman, who I felt really limited the offense all year.  Newman closed the year against 3 passing defenses that are better than Memphis and had 8TD's 3 INT"s on the season.  Memphis pass defense allowed UCF's bakcup QB to run for 59 yards and 4TD's while throwing for 348 yards and 2 more TD's as Memphis choked away a big lead in the AAC Championship game.  I don't htink they can recover form that, and to add to all of this Wake Forest has a big edge in special teams.  Wake Forest wins outright. 

Marshall / South Florida Under 55 4.4% NCAAF POD

USF lost their offensive coordinator and they have a special teams coach calling the plays against a 19th ranked YPP defense in the country for the first time ever.  USF's offensive key all year long has been establishing the run.  They are 1-4 averaging just 17 points per game when they don't run the ball for more than 148 yards.  Marshal ranks 5th in rushing defense, and has only allowed 1 opponent to run for more than 142 yards.

USF defense on paper is not good and that is what is driving this high total in my opinion, but they have faced a ton of top tier offenses for which Marshall is not.  Marshall's offense has topped 30 points only 4 times.  USF's defense held UCF to 38 points.  This game is played in USF's home state, and I expect they'll be up for this game defensively.  Also, the weather is not looking ideal with 11 mph winds, and rain. 

Northern Illinois +120 5.5% MAX POD

C-USA teams have not looked good in bowl season thus far 0-2 SU and ATS as North Texas got absolutely destroyed.  Meanwhile, the MAC's Eastern Michigan covered, but should have won the game outright.  The MAC is getting a lot of negative publicity, and add that into the fact that Rod Carey, the head coach of Northern Illinois is 0-5 SU & ATS in bowl games, I think we are getting plenty of value on this play here, but lets dig deeper.

We have two top 25 defenses from a yards per play perspective and it all starts with both teams feature top pass rushes ranked in the top 10.  Both teams run the ball over 57% of the time, and the first priority for both teams will be to establish the running game, and stop the opponent's running game.  Whomever can stop the run has the best shot at winning this game, because both teams are elite at getting to the QB.

I like Northern Illinois rushing defense that has been tested this season ranking 3rd having faced an average opponent rushing offense ranking 68th compared to UAB's 19th ranking with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 92nd.  Northern Illinois should have more success stopping the run in this one, and that will open things up for Sutton Smith to continue to feast on opposing QB's.  The All-American has 15 sacks and just finds ways to get to the QB, and that's bad news for a UAB team that has thrown 15 interceptions this year.

Northern Illinois poor offensive performances have been due to injury, and strength of schedule.  They have faced 3 power 5 school teams and BYU.  They are one of the few teams that did not schedule an FCS opponent, and they have faced 10 total bowl teams compared to UAB who has faced just 5.  Northern Illinois also has the TO margin advantage, special teams and UAB lost 41-6 to a MAC team a season ago. 

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

MTSU +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State.  I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee.  The Stockstill’s have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here.

Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC.  Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS.

The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS.  Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he’s gone.  The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion.

App State’s defensive weakness is against the pass, and that’s what MIddle Tennessee does best with Stockstill at QB.  On the flip side App State’s strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn’t been the same offensively.  They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they’ll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won’t impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright.

Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Navy +7 5.5% NCAAF POD 

This is a lot of points in a game that will have limited possessions due to the style of play that these two will face off with.  Navy has played a lot better down the stretch of the season, and this game is always tight, because these teams know how to defend the option.  Navy looks to avenge losing the last two years and they haven't covered the spread in 5 years.  However, this is a large shift in this series and I don't believe it is justified.  Army regularly the dog now a big favorite, and they won outright the last 2 years by 1 point, and 4 points, and have been an average dog of 11.8 points the last 5 years, and now they are a 7 point favorite.  I don't think their is a talent gap that large, and Navy plays a tougher schedule.  Army usually playing well in the dog role is now a TD favorite, and I just don't buy it.  I've been very impressed with what Jeff Monken has done here, and I have bet on Army on the ML the last few years, but this year I'm going with the value side and backing a Navy team that has played a lot better. 

Steelers -3 5.5% NFL POD

Fresno State +120 5.5% MAX POD

I bet on Boise the last time out, and a big reason why was Fresno State had short week of rest and was traveling Saturday to Friday.  They just played in a game where their defense saw 76 plays, and UNLV ran 44 times against them.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but a lot of things happened after that which just should not happen in the Championship game.  Rypien completed 80% of his passes, ( only 1 other team completed over 60% against Fresno), and Alex Mattison ran 30 times for 144 yards, and Fresno gave up 179 yards.  I believe Fresno State just got worn out in that game, and going into this game I think the opposite is true. 

Fresno still has to travel, but they have the regular full week, and they come off a game where their defense only saw 65 plays and 22 rushes, so they are definitely healthy. Boise State on the other hand is banged up right now after they had to fight for their lives to get to this game against Utah State.  Alex Mattison rushed the ball 37 times, and there is just no way he's going to be as effective this time around which will hurt Rypien's ability to throw the ball late.  This is the 4th match-up between tehse two teams and last year's match-up the trenches were pretty even with Boise being -28 yards rushing in last year's Championship game.  I think we could see something similar here, but with Fresno pulling the upset. 

Another thing that was strange in that game was the fact that Fresno was -9.4 yards in field position.  They have one of the best punters, and Boise has one of the worst so I expect that to also turn around in this game.  At the end of the day there were no red flags for Fresno and why they lost that game other than they just got tired at the end of the game.  Their QB play was just fine as Marcus McMaryion threw for 283 yards 1 TD and 0 INT's, completing 68.6% of his passes, and goes up against Boise's 90th rated pass defense here.  Fresno State has the advantage in teh red zone as well as they hold conference opponents to 30% TD percentage and held Boise to 50% in the first game, while they were 2-2.  Add all of this up and I like Fresno to pull the upset, they are +1.5 dog right now, but the they were a -3 point favorite just 3 weeks ago.  

Northern Illinois +3.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Northern Illinois & Buffalo have 6 common conference opponents, and Northern Illinois is +74 yards per game, while Buffalo is only +24 yards in those games, yet Buffalo is a favorite over a field goal, because Northern Illinois dropped their last two games that were meaningless considering they had this trip locked up 3 weeks ago.  Northern Illinois also comes from the stronger West Division in this conference, and has a lot of experience getting to Detroit.  Buffalo has been here once, 10 years ago.  In non-conference play Northern Illinois by far faced a tougher schedule with Iowa, Utah, BYU, and Florida State while Buffalo had Temple (okay), Delaware State, Army (got blown out), and Rutgers.

Buffalo is led by their QB Tyree Jackson, who has been a shell of himself over the past three games, he passed for 126 yards/game, 49% completion percentage, with only 2 TD's and 3 INT's.  The passing defenses he's faced over those three games rank 102nd, 88th, and 92nd.  The "alleged" NFL talent with the big arm has not impressed me down the stretch, and Northern Illinois has the 30th ranked pass defense, with one of the best pass rushers and they rank 26th at getting to the QB.  Ohio, who ranked 69th vs. the run, and 88th vs. the pass, and 55th in sack rate held Buffalo to 17 points.  I expect Northern Illinois to make this their type of game.

Northern Illinois will play great defense, special teams, and control the line of scrimmage.  Northern Illinois has a running QB in Marcus Childers who had 456 rushing yards in conference play.  Buffalo's rush defense was really challenged by Ohio giving up over 400 yards, and could not defend their QB Nathan Rourke who had 77 yards rushing.  When Northern Illinois played Ohio they controlled the line of scrimmage holding Ohio to 46 yards, as they ran for 255.  I expect Northern Illinois with the better defense to do the same in this game, and the fact that they are dogs on a neutral field has me excited to be betting this one.  Northern Illinois also the better special teams here ranking 43rd. compared to Buffalo's 90th ranking.

Tennessee +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I’ll take the better defense that has had success on the road in conference play, and has dominated this series 28-1 from 1983-2011, but Vanderbilt has won 4 of the past 6.  The winner gets to a bowl game, and Tennessee has nothing to lose in this game in the new Jeremy Pruitt era, while Derek Mason is on the hot seat for Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s defense is holding SEC foes 20 yards below their season average while Vanderbilt is letting those foes 73 yards above their season average.  These two teams have 5 of 7 common opponents in the SEC. Tennessee clearly the more difficult schedule with games against Alabama, and Auburn while Vanderbilt had Arkansas and Ole Miss.  In the 5 common opponents Tennessee did better in net yardage in 4 of the 5 games, and than Vanderbilt did, and the one they did not was the MIssouri game which happened just last week, but Tennessee lost their QB and best WR very early in that game and both are probable for this game.  Vanderbilt last week beat Ole Miss, one of the worst defenses in the SEC held them to 378 yards as they were out gained by 191 yards at home.

This is a big game for Tenn and Jeremy Pruit to regain control of this rivalry, and I think we are getting hidden value here based off last week’s results alone.  The better, defense, has already played close at South Carolina, and beat Auburn on the road, look for Tennessee to pull the outright upset here.

Lions +4 4.4% NFL POD

Vikings +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Colorado +7 -105 5% NCAAF POD

Colorado has a very good home field advantage, and they were giving Washington State a game last week as they trailed by 3 at the half, but ultimately they had too many mistakes, -3 TO margin, and their WR Shenault was rusty.  Utah, won at home last week despite being without their starting QB Huntley, and RB Zach Moss who made up 84% of their offense. Shelley and Shyne, stepped in well at home, but now they are going on the road where Utah has not played particularly well in terms of their statistical splits.  I expect a desperate Colorado team, fighting for their head coaches job in their last home game of the season. Utah 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games as a favorite with 3 outright upsets. I think Colorado has a shot here for their 6th win.

SMU +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD 

Let's first take a look at the situational spot that favors SMU.  They have revenge in a very meaningful game. Both teams can clinch their division and get to the Championship game if they win out.  Memphis could be peaking ahead to their showdown with Houston next, a team that SMU beat at home already especially the fact that Memphis won 65-45 last year, and that's where the revenge comes in.  In that game Memphis was coming off a bye, and had the extra time to prepare, but here they are on short rest, and traveling.  They did this earlier in the season and lost at Tulane in blowout fashion.  Home/Away splits are huge here, as Memphis has only beaten a bad East Carolina team on the road losing to Navy, Tulane, Missouri, and SMU at home played right with Cinci, beat Navy, and beat Houston, the leader in the division.

Now let's look at the statistics and analytics.  Overall, SMU's offensive statistics are misleading, as they have played a lot better of late.  They have also faced a far tougher schedule with an average opponent ypp defense ranking 55.11 compared to Memphis who has faced 94.33.  Defensively it looks like these two teams are the same ranking 63rd (Memphis), and 65th (SMU) in yards per play allowed, but a closer look reveals that once again Memphis has faced a weaker schedule facing 79.22, while SMU's average opponent ypp offense ranks 55.33.  Need more?  SMU's opponents average defensive success rate 40.16%, compared to Memphis 43.77.  Opponent average offensive success rate 42.97% to 40.71% in favor of SMU.  So once again it's clear that SMU not only has faced a tougher schedule, but it has been drastically tougher.

On paper this looks like a bad match-up for SMU ranking 82nd in rushing defense, but they held a Houston rushing offense under 200 yards, and that Houston rushing offense is similar ranking 14th in ypc, vs. avg opponent defense 87.5.  Memphis comes into the game ranking 5th in yards per carry, and they have the leading rusher in Henderson who will flash across the media reports, but they have faced an average defense ranking 91.11 in stopping the run.  Also, SMU likes to pass more than they run, but are facing Memphis #7 ranked pass defense, but hold on that pass defense ranks 7th against an average opponent QB rating of 88.88.  

SMU, can get to the QB and protect their QB more in this game which is a huge advantage.  They have edge in overall ranking and strength of schedule so the big key will be for SMU on defense to get Memphis into third and longs to get off the field with their pass rush.  Memphis just 62nd at protecting their QB despite facing an opponent average sack rate of 96.44 in the country.  Memphis ranks 41st at getting to the QB in terms of sack rate. 

Special Teams is something often overlooked, but it clearly will come up in this game, and SMU has a huge advantage ranking 27th, compared to Memphis 123rd ranking.  TO margin, another thing you have to look at and SMU ranks 8th in TO Margin having faced an opponent average TO margin ranking 56, compared to Memphis who is 59th, and has faced an opponent average ranking of 81.

Miami Ohio +6.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD – no need to buy the half point.

Miami is playing their best football right now, and with near wins on the road against Buffalo, they were in that game, and at Army and then their win last week against Ohio at home, I am impressed.  This is not out of the ordinary for this team to go on a run at the end of the season with this head coach and QB Gus Ragland.  Miami Ohio will be the more motivated team here on Wednesday night as they need wins in their final two games, while Northern Illinois has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship after Ball State shocked Western Michigan in OT last night.

Northern Illinois I would argue is a bit over rated at 7-3, as they have gone 3-0 in coin flip games while Miami Ohio 4-6 has gone 0-4 in coin flip games.  I think these teams are pretty even otherwise, and getting 6.5 points to a team with a very good defense, going up against a one dimensional offense with more motivation on the side of Miami makes me really like this game here.

Northern Illinois 126th in ypp offense, has faced some of the best defenses in the country, but here they will face one of the better defenses in MAC play as Miami Ohio ranks 41st in ypp defense, and 11th vs. the run which is the strength of Northern Illinois.  Miami Ohio also ranks #1 vs. the pass and has faced better passing teams than Northern Illinois who ranks 94th in QB Rating.

Gus Ragland will be the difference here, going up against Northern Illinois struggling pass defense.  Ragland has been able to make good decisions all year, and he’s rarely sacked which is the one thing Northern Illinois pass defense relies on.  Northern Illinois defense as a whole is elite ranking 10th in ypp allowed, but they have weaknesses having faced offenses that just aren’t very good ranking 82.2 on average in ypp.  Yet they still have -0.2 ypp differential on the season.  Their run defense ranks a peculiar 100th in ypc allowed.  Miami Ohio’s rushing offense is better than their 71st ranking having faced an opponent defense ranking 46.7.  So, I think Miami Ohio can score in the 20’s and cover this spread and possibly pull the upset.

Bengals +6 5.5% NFL POD

Indiana -1.5 4.4% NCAAF POD @12PM on BIG 10 Network

Seahawks pk 5.5% POD

LIberty +115 5.5% NCAAF POD 3:30PM Kickoff

Umass officially lose their starting QB in Andrew Ford for the season, and Ross Comis who has been decent in his place will have to step up in competition facing Liberty’s 59th ranked pass defense,  Liberty has plenty of talent in the front 7 as well and Umass has not been good at protecting their QB ranking 96th in sack % allowed which has led to a lot of TO’s as they rank 120th in the nation in TO margin.  Comis just went up against 106th, and 120th ranked pass defenses, but here he faced #59, and LIberty is also off a bye with extra time to prepare.

Liberty offensively is just as good if not better than Umass as they rank 52nd in yards per play, and have faced better defenses on the season.  Their QB Stephen Calvert has 16 TD’s to 7 INT”s 2,256 yards and he will go up against the 128th ranked pass defense that also ranks 120th in getting to the QB.  He has an NFL WR in 6’4 Antonio Golden who should have a monster game, and he gets his starting RB Kentory Matthews back after he missed the last 4 games.

Umass wins have come over Charlotte and Uconn (should have lost), enough said.  Meanwhile Liberty has beaten Old Dominion (beat Virginia Tech), New Mexico, and Troy (beat Nebraska).  With Virginia and Auburn up next this is a critical game for LIberty, and they are getting healthy at the right time.  Also important to note is they commit fewer penalties, are better on 3rd down offense, defense, and red zone offense and defense, and also in special teams although not by much.

49ers -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Florida +7 -115 5% NCAAF POD

Georgia has not looked good in the trenches in their two games against top 30 opponents Missouri, and LSU.  Though they won at MIssouri they gave up 4 rushing TD’s, and were lucky to have been +2 TO margin. They lost at LSU 2 weeks ago at the line of scrimmage as LSU rushed for 275 yards compared to Georgia’s 113.  Florida hosted LSU and beat them by out rushing them 215 to 180. I really don’t see much separating these two teams other than the QB position which I give an edge to Jake Fromm, but he has a ton of pressure on him this week with a freshman QB breathing down his back all year long.

The big question here is whether or not Florida can run the ball?  I believe the answer is yes, and I think they will outgain Georgia on the ground in this game.  Florida has faced tougher run defenses #63 compared to #73 for Georgia in run defense, and their offense has faced a much tougher run defense schedule facing #56 run defense on average compared to Georgia who has faced #70.  Georgia ranks 73rd in yards per carry allowed, and hasn’t faced a ton of teams that excel at running the ball. Florida ranks 28th in running the ball and 56th at stopping the run, but they have been getting better with every week.

I mentioned the QB play of Fromm being the one advantage that Georgia had, but Georgia is not the same team as last year.  They have not protected Fromm or given him much time as they rank 81st in sack % allowed and that’s with facing an average pass rush ranking 83.5.  Here Florida comes in ranking 18th at getting to the QB. Feleipe Franks for Florida has taken care of the ball and the offensive line has done a great job at protecting him as they rank 32nd in pass protection efficiency and will go up against a Georgia defense that ranks 107th at getting to the QB.  

Florida also has the edge in special teams, and Georgia’ spunting game has been very shaky this season which could lead to a field position edge for Florida.  Florida also ranks 11th in TO margin having faced an average opponent ranking 62 in TO margin. Compare that with Georgia who ranks 41st having faced an opponent ranking 75th.  More than likely that tells us that Florida should win the TO battle if anything, and that makes sense as they have been really good at getting to the QB.

South Alabama +13

Does this sound like a team you want to back as a double digit road favorite?  In their last game with a backup QB that they are with for the rest of the season they lost 3 TO’s, had 10 penalties, and went 4-15 on third down.  Troy has played  on average a 114th ranked defense, and they are still holding onto their victory at Nebraska which looks less and less impressive, and Nebraska was without their starting QB Adrian Martinez and their backup is a huge downgrade.

Meanwhile South Alabama comes in under the radar and have faced a very challenging schedule, but with 10 days to prepare and a weak opponent last time out to get their confidence going should be in good position to pull the upset.  Take a look at South Alabama’s schedule they have already played 4 road games, and they have played 3 of the best group of 5 teams in the nation in App State, Memphis, and LA Tech.  They then had to face a triple option Georgia Southern team in their 3rd straight road game.  I am not surprised this team struggled one bit.  Their offense has struggled ranking 127th in yards per play, but that has come against an average defensive opponent ranked #49.5 in defense compare that with Troy’s 114thranking and QB Evan Orth should have a quality game here.  Orth is completing 67.2% of his passes has 7 TD passes and 3 INT’s on the year.  South Alabama’s strength of schedule is the hidden gem here.  They look like this awful 2-5 team facing a 5-2 team, but have faced teams who are top 50 in a lot of categories.  They have also faced on average a top 50 YPP offense at 49.67, opponent rushing ypc of 49.33, an opponent QB Rating of 50.33, an average QB rating defense of 50.33.

Ravens -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Kentucky -11

If you have been following me this year you know I am a fan of Kentucky backing them against Florida and Texas A&M.  This is a great matchup for Kentucky coming off a bye where Vanderbilt is off back to back physical games in SEC play where they were dominated at the line of scrimmage.  Kentucky will also get another night game at home, and the weather favors their style of play as there will be 15mph winds.

Vanderbilt’s strength is their QB play of Kyle Shurmur as they throw the ball 53% of the time.  I don’t see him being as effective here. For one he is going up against the 8th ranked pass defense, and 29th ranked pass rush, but the wind will keep this game more on the ground.  Vanderbilt is 58th in yards per carry and have faced a run defense ranked 58.3 on average. Here they face the #22 defense which has been tested having faced #48.4.

Kentucky, off the bye and not only do they have a dominating running back in Benny Snell, but they have a mobile QB in Terry Wilson which is something that Vanderbilt has not faced this year.  Kentucky will run the ball over 65% of the time which is their average so their game plan in the weather won’t have to change much. They’ll go up against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 86th.  This running game that is 16th in yards per carry is well tested having faced #54.8 on average.

These two have common opponents in SEC play and Vanderbilt played both of those games at home against Florida and South Carolina.  It’s obvious that Kentucky is the better team as they outgained those two opponents by 120 yards while Vanderbilt was outgained by 490 yards, and Kentucky has to play Florida on the road.  Vanderbilt also -24% success rate in the Florida game last week so their 10 point loss was actually really misleading as they should have lost by more.

Vanderbilt has struggled big time in conference play, and we are still getting value here on Kentucky in my opinion who should control the line of scrimmage.  VAnderbilt in 3 SEC games between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina were outgained on the ground 261-112 on average. Compare that with Kentucky who faced Florida Miss State, South Carolina and they outgained them on the ground on average of 242-104.  Expect 300+ yards on the ground for Kentucky as they wear out Vanderbilt in the second half and win this one by 3TD’s.

Steelers +110 5.5% NFL POD

Iowa State +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia.  West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida.  This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road.  They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.

Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD”s, 4 through the air.  Iowa State’s offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed.  Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.

West Virginia’s offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced.  On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5.  The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won’t win on the road.  They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State’s 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean?

Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %.  They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30.  Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points.  This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye.

Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD

Texas +7.5 -1.15 4.5 NCAAF POD

NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

South Carolina +1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Kentucky is a hot pick right now and everyone is picking them over South Carolina this week.  I am high on Kentucky, and I even bet them at Florida, but I think this is a different match-up.  This is the first time Kentucky is in the AP Top 25 in 11 years and they are facing an unranked team yet they are only a 1 point favorite?  They have actually dominated South Carolina over the last 4 years winning 4 straight, but they are only a 1 point favorite? Kentucky is actually just 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and South Carolina has covered their last 8 road games.

This is a different South Carolina that Kentucky has to go against this week compared to Florida and Miss State who they took down as double digit dogs.  Florida and Miss State can not pass the ball and are one dimensional on offense. South Carolina with Jake Bentley and their star receivers can move the ball through the air which should open up some running lanes.  The strength of this Kentucky team is in the front 7, and South Carolina’s offensive line has been very good protecting the QB ranking 9th in sack % allowed.

South Carolina is a balanced offense and although they rank similarly in yards per play at #20 to Miss State and Florida who ranked 18th and 22nd the strength of schedule South Carolina has faced to get there is totally different.  Miss State ranks 18th, but faced YPP defenses of 100th, 122 and an FCS foe. Florida ranks 22nd but faced 126, 95 and an FCS foe. South Carolina ranks 20th, can pass the ball, and played 116th, 23rd, and 41st ranked defenses.

South Carolina is also led by a defensive minded coach.  They held Benny Snell to 103 rushing yards on 32 carries which is pretty damn good in last year’s game.  South Carolina will force Terry Wilson at QB to beat them and so far he has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. This is simply a bad matchup for Kentucky.

Steelers pk 4.4% play 

Redskins +135 5.5% NFL POD

UNLV +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year.  UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year.  UNLV is also a very diciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD.

Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check.  I see a bend but don’t break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV’s Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen.  When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS.  The Mountain West (UNLV’s conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points.

Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD

Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et

I like the Utes to pull the upset here.  Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups.  Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. 

Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TD’s and 1 INT.  Jake Browning has really struggled on the road in his career against good defenses, and Utah should be able to stop the run.  They held Washington to 124 yards on the ground on the road last year, and just got done holding run heavy Northern Illinois to 117 and under 3 yards per carry.

Utah has an excellent home field advantage and a very good special teams.  I expect a close game with Utah being in position to win the game outright.

Bengals +121 5.5% POD

Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck.  Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead.  Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation.

Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall.  Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end.

Miami Ohio +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I don’t really understand why Miami is a home dog here when they are on the same level as Marshall.  I think the MAC is pretty even to C-USA as well and this was the season opener last year where Miami Ohio actually played better but lost the game.  The game was at Marshall and Miami Ohio was a small road favorite and outgained Marshall 429 - 267, but lost because of 2 kick return TD’s and a 72 yard interception returned for a TD.  Luckily we had Miami Ohio in a teaser and still covered, but it was a warning sign to a very unlucky season for Miami Ohio that I believe they are motivated to turn around in 2018.

Miami Ohio had 4 losses by 5 points or less, they lost their QB for 3 games in Gus Ragland (returning), 2 OL starters.  This all after they beame the first team in college football history to start 0-6 and finish 6-0 in 2016 behind Ragland who had a 17 TD to 1 INT Ratio.  This is obviously a game they want to make a statement about what kind of team they will be in 2018. They have senior leadership all over the field who have been starting since 2016 and were part of that turn around.

Marshall here returns 18 starters, but they are getting enough credit here in the line.  I really don’t like this team as a road favorite under Doc HOlliday as they are better an an underdog role.  Under Holliday they have gone 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite. This was a winning team ATS last year so we naturally want to fade them the following year despite the 18 returning starters they do not return their starting QB.  They get a grad transfer from Wagner who is hyped to have NFL talent, but going up against a very underrated Miami Ohio defense I think the offense will struggle as they did a year ago.

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD

Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD

Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD