Chiefs -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs -125 5.5% NFL POD

Penn State +100 4% play

This should be a great game against two similar teams, but I think Penn State has the advantage here.  Not only do they have the health advantage as Notre Dame's RB Love is not 100%, they'll be without MIlls on their defensive line again, but Penn State has the extra two days or preparation and freshness.  I also believe Drew Allar's ability to make great decisions when pressured will be the difference in the game and don't sleep on Penn State's ability to run the ball in this game, and they have proven they can take away running QB's, which is something Georgia struggled with all year.

Jets -1 4.4 % Play play 

Oregon +3 -115 f5.5% MAX NFL POD

Oregon will get two guys back for this game that missed the game at Oregon on their defensive line, which should be a net benefit.  They’ll also get to face Ohio State without a starting Tackle.  I think Ohio State played out of their mind against Tennessee at home.  This is still a very inconsistent team, and I think they showed their A game already.  They’ll have revenge against Oregon, but Oregon’s offense was able to do whatever they wanted against Ohio State, and it did not phase their veteran QB in the least bit.  I think the winner of this game is likely headed to the National Championship, but this should be a very close back and forth game tight until the end. I think Oregon has the better head coach and QB here and will take the points.

Vikings pk -110 5.5% max POD

Commanders +4 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Navy +7 -125 5.5% max pod buy up to +7

These games are always tight, because the level of familiarity.  Navy comes into this game fully rested and getting their QB Horvath back, which is a huge deal. I think we are getting quite a bit of line value based on that.  Army on the other hand has had a wonderful season, and I know they'd like to continue that here today, but they had 3 games in a row that took max effort.  Notre Dame, UTSA  to get to their first ever conference championship, and then Tulane to win it.  The Navy game is more important obviously, but this game which is played on a neutral is going to be a battle, and looking at the previous versions and spreads of this match up we have value.   Looking at their 3 common opponents the oddsmakers agreed that these teams were pretty even or a slight edge to Army.  Navy was +7 vs. Tulane at home without their QB, while Army was +5.  Both teams were +14 vs. Notre Dame on neutral fields.  

Just looking at a simple stat like yards per play over the years in this match up.  It is easily both of these teams best marks as Army +1.2 ypp vs Navy +0.7, with the strength of schedule edge being on Navy's side.  Many of the other match ups had both teams negative in yards per play differential.  Army was around a 7 point favorite in 2020 and 2021, and had a much larger gap on bad Navy teams.  This is going to be a battle, and one of the more exciting games of the year. 

Rams +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Cardinals +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Kansas State +1.5 4.4% play

Iowa State has not faced a single ranked team on the year, while Kansas State has faced 4.  Kansas State has not covered the last 4 match ups in the series, but this one is due.  I have seen Iowa State teams under coach Campbell get very tight in big games, and a win and they get into the Big 12 Championship.  From a yards per play perspective on offense and defense this year’s Kansas State team is better than last year’s, and for Iowa State, their team last year was better than this year, but for whatever reason Iowa State is favored here, and I just don’t see them as the better team.  They also have a huge mismatch here as Kansas State is a run first team, and rank 6th in ypc, while Iowa State’s defensive strength is vs. the pass and they have been horrible against the run ranking 111th in ypc.  Kansas State is going to win in the trenches in this game.  Klieman is 12-5 ATS as a dog as well as they pull the outright upset!

Colts +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

UL Monroe +125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Arkansas State has been outgained in every game this year, but somehow they got their 6th win last week, and are bowl eligible giving them a bit of a let down for this game.  LA Monroe is desperate for their 6th win here to get to a bowl game, which is a huge deal for this team.  They have played a tougher schedule and have better #’s -0.6 ypp differential against an opponent +0.3 compared to Arkansas State -1.4 vs. -0.255..  They are a run first team with 64% of their play calls being runs, and Arkansas State has been horrible stopping the run ranking 123rd.  Monroe has gone 3-1 vs. bad run defenses this season.  Arkansas State on the other hand more balanced, but not a good offense by any means, and are 0-4 going up against top 60 pass defenses averaging just 13.25 points in those games.  LA Monroes pass defense has been very good especially in 6 conference games holding opposing QB’s to a 102 QB rating.  I also like the fact that LA Monroe takes care of the football with only 10 turnovers in 10 games. 

Broncos -1.5 5.5% NFL MAX POD

Washington +110 5% MAX NCAAF POD

USC has lost all three of their road game against Minnesota, Michigan, and Maryland.  The Maryland loss looks particularly bad when you consider they have gone on to lose against Northwestern and Minnesota in blow out fashion.  Washington to me is playing under the radar they are a very good balanced team across the board and rank among the nations best +1.9 yards per play.  They are very good on offense and defense against the run and pass.  USC has some weakness especially stopping the run, which Washington will look to establish in this game, which if they can do that they should win this game. Washington’s passing attack, which has struggled at time to protect the QB, but USC 110TH at getting to the QB. 

Washington lost back to back games, but both came on the road while USC beat up on Rutgers 42-20, but Rutgers turned the ball over on downs 3 times in USC territory on the 30, 13, and 32 yard game.  Washington’s road losses at Iowa and Indiana two of the better teams in the conference who offer a bad match up for Washington.  Now back at home vs. USC whose defense ranks 70th in ypp, and they are outside the top 50 in rush defense and pass defense should allow Washington’s offense to be in more synch.  Washington’s defense on the other hand should be able to do enough here to stop the high flying USC offense, which wants to pass the ball, but Washington very good at rushing the passer at home, and their pass defense ranks 3rd in passing success rate.

JETS -130 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Jaguars +4 5.5% NFL POD

Titans -2.5 -117 5.5% NFL POD

Georgia -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Revenge!  I rarely use this angle, which hasn’t worked in handicapping for over a decade, but this is on the rare occasion I think it is a factor.  Georgia should have been in the college football playoff last year, but their lone loss was to Alabama.  Georgia has had this game circled all summer long.  Georgia has been tested already this season against Kentucky on the road and Clemson.  The Clemson win really looks a lot better now, and the Kentucky clunker is something we have seen from Georgia in years past and I’m not concerned.  We saw it last year against Missouri, and they bounced back to dominate Top 10 Ole Miss 52-17. In 2022 they struggled against Missouri again and bounced back to win 42-10 against Auburn.  

Alabama has not been tested, and I saw a lot of red flags in their game against South Florida.  Alabama has faced an average ranked ypp defense ranking 115th, and their opponent ypp differential is -2 yards per play.  Compare that with Georgia who has faced an average opponent ypp differential of +0.85.  Alabama’s offense lives and dies on the explosive pass play, which I think is something a great defense can stop.  Georgia is #1 in explosive plays allowed and #2 in passing success rate defense. Alabama has had their number in the Nick Saban era, and I have all the respect for their new coach, but I think Georgia is on a mission this year, and it starts with a road win at Alabama tonight. 

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% MAX POD

UTEP/Col St Under 49.5 3.3% play

Both teams really struggle to get explosive plays, and I'm very concerned from how Colorado State looked against Colorado on offense last week as their star WR Horton was not 100%, which is a huge impact on the offense.  UTEP's offense is outside the top 100 in yards per play, and there is weather to be dealing with here with sustained winds of over 15mph, which I think leads to a more conservative play call style in this one.  Take the under 49. 

Giants +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Jaguars +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

49ers -7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +3 -120 5.5% NFL POD

Packers +7.5 -115 3.5% play 

Washington +6 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case.  The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year.  It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington.  They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.

The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games.  Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB.  Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.  

Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy.  They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan.  I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer.  They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory.  Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches.  I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game

Packers -2.5 -123 5.5% NFL POD

Washington +4 5.5% max NCAAF POD

Washington has won all different ways this season, and still have not gotten the respect they deserve.  Texas is getting a ton of respect for beating Alabama way back when, and they navigated their way through the Big 12 after losign in the Red River Rivalry.  Each team had to overcome adversity, but Washington did it without losing, and they did it more impressively in my opinion beating Oregon 2x, winning in poor weather, with injured receivers.  They won with defense when they needed to, and they won with the running game when they needed.  They clearly in my opinion are not a one dimensional team and this is the best offense Texas has faced all year long.  Washington has the better YPP differential against a tougher schedule just by a slim margin and I would say the PAC 12 was better than the Big 12 this season.  We saw Arizona beat Oklahoma, Iowa State lose to Memphis yesterday.  USC's win over Louisville was impressive for the PAC 12 as well so at the end of the day I think this game will be close, and I trust Penix way more than I trust Ewers. 

Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.

Wyoming -165 5.5% MAX POD

Ohio State +1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Colts +3 -115 4.5% NFL POD

Navy +3 5.5% pod

Saints+4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Over 53.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Broncos -1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Packers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Jets pk 5.5% NFL MAX POD 

Tenn -1 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

Missouri in a major hangover spot here, and their head coach even admitted that they emptied the tank left it all out on the field against Georgia, but came up short.  Missouri will go back home and welcome in Tennessee, a team who got to cruise and play just a half of football against Uconn.  Tennessee is the better team, and based on what I have seen I trust them on the road.  They completely out played Alabama on the road in the first half, but couldn’t hold on, but I think we see a different situation here at Missouri, a team they smacked 66-24 last year.

Missouri will also have a banged up Luther Burden who is the star and the key to their offense at WR.  He’ll likely give it a go, but won’t be close to 100%.  Tennessee is just a really good team when you look at the numbers I don’t really see a glaring weakness that Missouri can take advantage of.  They don’t turn the ball over, and MIssouri does not force turnovers.  They have a top 20 special teams unit.  They have the better third down offense and defense, better rush offense and defense, the better coach, and the fresher team.  Tennessee does have a look ahead to Georgia, but that game won’t matter unless they win this one, and who knows what happens as Georgia hosts Ole Miss later that night.

cowboys+3.5 -120 5.5% max nfl pod

Arkansas +4.5 5% play / Arkansas +170 0.5%

Arkansas has had a gauntlet schedule before their bye.  They had 4 road games against LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, then a home game against Miss State where they just had nothing left.  Now they have a bye where they fired their offensive coordinator and a favorable match up against a Florida team that is in a major sandwich spot following the Georgia game and LSU on deck.  Arkansas has 4 winnable games if they get this one they could run the table to 6-6 and get into a bowl game.

Arkansas needs to run the ball to win games, and they have a veteran QB that is excellent in the red zone where Arkansas will have a major advantage on Saturday.  They’ll face a run defense that ranks 99th in ypc defense.  Over the past two years Arkansas when facing a run defense that’s not in the top 75 have only lost 1 game out of 9 by more than 4, and it was by 7, and they were able to put up an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas also a team that does not turn the ball over ranking 19th in OTO % which should keep them in this game no matter what on the road. 

Florida is certainly capable of winning this game, but the games that this team won big were games they were able to run the ball over 180 yards.  The Tennessee game was most impressive, but that was a night game, and they will have their hands full against Arkansas who ranks top 50 in ypc defense and rushing success defense, and rank 46% in TD percentage allowed.  Florida’s offense is hit or miss and they rely on long drives ranking 92nd in explosive defense I think Arkansas will be able to keep it within this number with a chance for an outright upset. Sam Pittman also 16-7 ATS as an underdog his team will fight for him here.

Panthers +3.5 5.5% pod

Cincinnati +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Oklahoma State has been a dog in their last 4 games pulling the outright upset in their last 3, by running the ball, and forcing turnovers.  That has been the difference, meanwhile Cinci is -5 TO margin over their last 3 games, but on the season they actually rank 45th in % of possessions ending in a turnover.  Their run defense has also been excellent ranking 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and 19th in ypc allowed so they should be able to hold Oklahoma State in check on the ground game, and Oklahoma STate has not proven they can pass the ball ranking 92nd in passing success rate, 102nd in QB rating.  Overall I see two similar teams.  I think Cincinnati is going to be able to run the ball better than Oklahoma State as they have the better #’s overall fur rushing offense and rushing defense and that will be key going into this game. Cinci is desperate for a win, Oklahoma State is not supposed to be where they are currently, and have Oklahoma on deck so I see them just getting out with a win by less than a TD.

UAB +9.5 5.5% pod

Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville.  Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays.  Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years.  Jeff Brohm is the better and more experienced coach in this match up and he is 10-6 ATS as a home dog.  I just don’t trust this Notre Dame team, which has played great defense, but They will be up against an offense that could give them some issues in this one, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff has yet to let Sam Hartman loose. I expect a close fought game, and the home crowd will make the difference at night.

Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD

PATRIOTS +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Chiefs +3 -125 buy 1/2 point

Chiefs -120 5.5% NFL POD

Cowboys / 49ers Over 46 5.5% NFL POD

Giants +3 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Georgia / TCU Under 64 4.4% NCAAF POD

This total seems high to me when you factor in these are two run first teams who play at a slower pace.  Georgia ranks 115th in seconds per play, and TCU ranks 81st.  Georgia the last two years have allowed 16 points per game over 9 total games when facing an offense that is top 50 in passing offense and rushing offense.  Their last two games they gave up 41 and 30 however, but I think that is giving us an inflated total here tonight.  Same thing goes for TCU who benefited from two pick sixes in the game against Michigan and then they played lose and gave up explosive plays which led to a highs coring game.  There were several red flags about the Michigan’s run defense that I thought TCU would exploit that they won’t be able to against Georgia’s run defense here tonight.  TCU’s offense lives off explosives, but Georgia has always done a good job stopping explosive plays.  I think TCU’s defense can hold their own a little bit in this game with a banged up Darnell Washington that’s a huge loss if he’s not 100%.  At the end of the day.  This is the best pass defense that Georgia has faced since Kentucky who held them to 16 points.  TCU runs the 3-3-5 which will invite Georgia to run the ball and keep the clock moving.  TCU average opponent defense ranks 70th, and while they put up a ton of points on Michigan last week it came in unusual fashion of large plays, two pick sixes etc. This is the most complete defense they’ve seen, and it will be tough to score points particularly in the red zone where Georgia has only allowed 36% TD rate.

Penn State pk 4.4% play 

I have some serious questions about Utah being able to move the ball consistently and put up points in the Rose Bowl. They ranked 19th in ypp, but that came against an average ypp defense ranking 97.8.  They’ll be without their TE Kinkaid, who had the majority of the targets from Cam Rising and going up against a top 10 defense.  They did not face a top 35 run defense all year, but faced 7 bottom 35 run defenses.  Utah has also enjoyed quite the home field advantage over the years that they will not enjoy in this game.  Utah ranked 80th in % off possessions ending in a TO, while Penn State ranked 14th in forcing them. I have Penn State as the more complete team and we are getting points.  Penn State playing without their top corner Joey Porter, but the loss of both Utah’s TE’s are a huge deal.

Penn State’s offense is led by Sean Clifford, a 5 year veteran who would like nothing more than to go out a Rose Bowl winner.  He’s really enjoyed a quality season and has taken care of the ball just 1 turnover worth play in 93 passing attempts against pressure and Penn State 32nd in sack % allowed.  Utah’s best cover corner out in this game, and should allow Penn State to move the ball.  Utah’s defense far better last year against Ohio State team playing without some of their skill position gave up 48 points.  Utah’s defense last year ranked 14th in ypp against an average offense ranking 46.  This year they rank 73rd against an average opponent ranking 44.6.  Last year they had a top 50 run defense as well as a top 50 pass defense.  Utah was also +1.5 ypp vs. an average opponent +0.83, while this year they are +0.9 vs. an average worse opponent -0.025.  Penn State +1.5 vs. +0.1.

Bucs -3 -125 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles / Cowboys Over 47 5.5% NFL POD

JETS -1 5.5% max nfl pod

Navy -138 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is one of my favorite games of the season.  It’s a game where every inch and yard and play matters so much.  I have been able to do a great job winning this game in the past, and look to continue that here again.  The last two years Army has been a -7 and -7.5 favorite, but this year it moves back to Navy being a favorite and rightfully so.  My handicap will be similar to last year’s +7.5 5.5% MAX winner in that I believe Navy has taken another step forward in improving.  So much to this match up comes down to the play in the trenches, and once again Navy has the better run defense by far.  Navy comes in ranking 16th in ypc run defense while Army comes in at 118th, and Navy has faced a tougher schedule with Notre Dame on their schedule and an opponent average ypp diff of +0.28, compared to Army’s -0.26. 

I like to look at an average offense defensive line stats looking at adjusted line yards, power success sand stuff rate.  This year Navy is the better team which was not the case the past 3 years yet Navy still managed to win 2 of the 3 games probably because their #’s were always a little worse from playing in a tougher conference.  In 2019 Navy averaged 80th, and Army rated 20th, In 2020 Navy 75th, Army 31st, and in 2021 Navy 48th, Army 23.16, but this year Navy 38.5, and Army 60th.  Navy is top 10 in all defensive line yard categories.  Their defensive coordinator Brian Newbery has given up a total of 3 TD’s to Army in 3 games.

Lastly, these games often come down to turnovers, and special teams.  Navy has the advantage in both.  They have a very strong advantage in forcing and limiting turnovers ranking 38th in % of possessions ending in a TO, and 15th in forcing them.  Army ranks 103rd and 121st.  Special teams is pretty even, but Navy has the advantage there ranking 56th vs. an average opponent special teams of 69.4 compared to Army 64th vs. 85.  Navy large advantages on third down offense and defense, which will be a huge factor here.  They average 58th between the two against an average 55.75 opponent 3rd down offense/defense.  Army averages 87th, and against a weaker schedule of 68.4.

Looking at the Air Force match up both teams lost, but Navy played far better offensively.  Army only managed 78 rushing yards and 67 passing yards with 25 minutes time of possession.  Navy had a 10-10 game going late losing 13-10 while Army lost 13-7.  That has not been the case in recent years, which only more proof that Navy has significantly improved.  In 2021, Navy lost 23-3, while Army beat Air force 21-14.  In 2020 Navy lost 40-7, while Army won 10-7.  Bottom line I’m taking the money line, I don’t like playing a favorite in this game which is going to be tight, but given all of the fact I laid out I like Navy to win this game a lot.

Falcons pk 5.5% MAX POD

Fresno State +3.5 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather should have no impact on this game, which is rare for Boise at this time of year, but excellent for Fresno State.  Boise vs. top 50 offenses is 1-2, and their only win was against Fresno State without Jake Haener, and without Jake Haener Fresno is not a top 100 offense.  They played 5 games without Haener went 2-3, and failed to score more than 21 points with the exception of their game against a horrible New Mexico team and turned the ball over 9 times in those games.  Fresno also without their defensive captain Evan Williams in the first meeting and will return for this game.

Fresno’s defense is a top unit they rank 35th in success rate, and their only weakness is defending the run, which BYU with a worse run defense recently stopped Boise.  I think Fresno’s run defense will be pumped up for this one after giving up 300 yards to Boise. They did hold Taylen Green to 22 yards on 11 carries in the first game, and there is only more tape on Green at this point for Fresno to scheme a game plan.  Fresno State without their defensive captain really held their own early in the game against Boise holding Boise in the red zone multiple times.  This is going to be a close game and I would rather have the team with the better more experienced QB.  Fresno State also has a significant advantage in special teams ranking 14th compared to 104th. 

Jeff Tedford also the better head coach here with experience in the MW Championship game.  In fact Tedford 7-2 ATS as a road dog 2017-2019 when he was at Fresno and in 2018 they lost to Boise on the road and came back and beat them in OT on the road in the Championship game.  Andy Avalos is still a very young head coach in just his second season and first time in a game this big.  He is just 1-4 ATS in games where Boise is favored by less than a TD losing 4 outright.  Boise has not been in this situation yet this year.  They were a +2 dog twice, and went 1-1.  In what is supposed to be a tight game Fresno has the advantage in a very key area.

Oregon / Oregon State Under 58 5.5% NCAAF POD

This is a big game for Oregon who can get to the PAC 12 Championship with a win.  Oregon State is just a very hard team to beat on the road.  USC was able to do it 17-14, but that’s because Oregon State had costly turnovers.  I think with two run heavy teams, and Bo Nix not being 100%, he had 2 rushes last week we could see a lower scoring game.  These are two slower paced teams Oregon is 75th, while Oregon State is 125th in pace.  Oregon has the match up with their rushing attack which ranks 2nd, going up against a poor Oregon State run defense, but without Bo Nix being 100% healthy it clearly impacts their running game or at least did a week ago against a bad Utah run defense.  Oregon State’s run defense has been better at home and they have held their opponents to 17, 17, 10, 9, and 10 points in home games.  Their red zone defense has been elite allowing only 25% TD’s at home, 50% overall.

Oregon’s defense has had its struggles, but those have come against the pass.  Their run defense although not a birk wall rnaks 42nd in epa.  I think Oregon State can find some success running the ball, but it will be methodical drives.  Oregon ranks 17th in explosive defense allowed, and since Oregon State is 125th in pace that means we should see some long drives in this one.  Oregon’s defense also very good in the red zone allowing just 40% TD rate in conference play.

Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Short week definitely is an edge for the more experienced head coach, and Bill Bellechick already admitted that he was preparing for the Vikings during the bye before the Jets game, which I guess makes sense since he's very much familiar with my Jets.  Vikings have some injury issues as they lose their LT to another concussion, the secondary is banged up  and could be exposed here against the Patriots who rank #4 in explosive passing offense.  Patriots have a big edge in special teams and have a top 5 pass defense.  Vikings vs. top 10 pass defenses this season are 1-2 losing to Cowboys and Eagles, but their one win was against the Bills who they should have lost to last week.  Kirk Cousins typically also struggles when he's out of his routine, and this is playing at night + on Thanksgiving. 

Colts +7 5.5% MAX POD

Arkansas +3 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

Arkansas really needs a win here to make sure they get to a bowl game and they will be getting healthy just in time with KJ Jefferson taking all the reps in practice, RT Dalton Wagner back after missing the LSU game as well as one of the leaders of the defense in Myles Slusher.  Ole Miss in a dream crushing spot here after losing to Alabama they also lost the ability to win the SEC West and have the Egg Bowl on Friday on deck.  This is a tough situation for Ole Miss going on the road to play at Arkansas at night.  Arkansas has faced the tougher schedule, and a lot of their statistics are compressed with the health of KJ Jefferson.  This was a 1 point loss at Ole Miss last year for Arkansas as they rushed for 350 yards, and remember that game.  KJ Jefferson is from the state of Mississippi and unfortunately could not play against Miss State.

California +14 5.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to like getting double digits here.  First of all Oregon state is a one dimensional offense that relies heavily on the running game, and their offense runs at an extremely slow pace 128th in seconds per play in the country.  To win by double digits they will have to have a significant advantage, but I don't see that as the case as Cal ranks 49th in rushing defense and that has come against a 53rd ranked ypc offense on average.  So.. Oregon State is going to have to force turnovers, but they rank 83rd in % of opponent possessions ending in a TO, while Cal ranks 12th in turning the ball over.  Cal given up on their season? No, Cal has been fighting hard to get to bowl and played well against USC and Oregon their last two games.

Cal also has played in tight games with Oregon State each of the last 3 seasons losing 2 by 4 points, and winning 39-25 last year.  I think their offense can have some success here particularly running the ball against Oregon State who ranks 106th in epa run defense.  Cal's Jack Plummer was the starting QB a season ago at Purdue to open the year up and had one of his best games against Oregon State.  Cal's offense has been stopped because their offensive line has struggled at times, but Oregon State's defensive line ranks 121st in sack %, and 124th in power success rate.  Justin Wilcox also 16-5 ATS as a road dog.

Cardinals -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Memphis +3.5 5.5 % NCAAF POD

Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game.  I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage.  UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next.  I think Memphis, a team with a very good passing game will be able to do that this week.  Memphis also a very good home team.  They lost back to back on the road to Tulane and East Carolina.  They had a 17-0 lead against East Carolina, and lost in OT, the same team that beat UCF 35-13.  Against Tulane they were -4 TO margin and gave up a 90 yard punt return. 

Aside from the spot that favors Memphis here. I actually like their match up as they are very similar to East Carolina.  A pass first offense with a very good QB, and a defensive strength against the run.  Memphis 28th in ypc defense, 27th in epa.  They also have a top 30 special teams unit just like East Carolina.  UCF could be without Plumlee in this game although I personally hope he starts coming off the concussion I don’t think he’ll be 100%, and I’ve said it before he’s a one dimensional QB, and Memphis has shown they can stop the run.  They’ll also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-7 on the road last year.  They played that game without Seth Henigan, and had 4 turnovers.  UCF’s defense ranks 128th in forcing turnovers this season.  Memphis has been a very good team at home dating back to last year playing in a lot of tight games.  I think this one goes down to the wire.

Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX POD

Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more.  23-13 ATS, is Pat Narduzzi’s record following a SU loss.  For all the shit this guy gets he is a very solid coach.

North Carolina’s offense is sizzling, but the last time you want a team to go on a bye is when the offense and team is clicking, and that’s what we have here for Mac Brown’s Tarheels.  Mac Brown took over in 2019, and he’s 0-4 after the bye losing to Notre Dame the last two years, Virginia Tech and Pitt in 2019.  This offense really has not faced a good defense all year with the exception of Notre Dame, a game they put up a lot of garbage stats.  Notre Dame absolutely dominated that game, and the Irish have a very similar profile to Pittsburg in the fact that they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, and they rely on their QB to manage the game.  North Carolina since Brown took over when facing a top 50 ypp defense is only 2-9!   Their two wins came back in 2019, and were by only 3 points each against Miami and Duke.  Pitt at 4-3 still has everything to play for.

Pitt’s offensive troubles were two-fold last week at Louisville.  They could not protect their QB, and they really couldn’t get consistency and flow in their running game.  Despite running for more than 150 yards the team was just 4-11 on third down and had the 4 TO’s that cost them.  I don’t see the same thing happening here as they are facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th, in yards per play.  They rank 118th vs. the run, 116th vs. the pass, and have not show an ability to get pressure ranking 111th in sack %, 92nd in third down defense, and 112th in success rate.  Pitt is 2-0 when facing a bad defense this year, and 19-4 since 2018 when facing a non top 75 defense.  3 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points.  This team under Narduzzi just thrives in this type of a match up.  

Browns +7 5.5% MAX POD

Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% MAX POD

Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here.  He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye.  I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion.  I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so much information so quickly.  Cunningham does not do well with that normally, and here he goes against top 25 pass rush  that also is a top 20 pass defense overall and decent enough against the run to give them issues.  Pitt is 15th in havoc rate, and Cunningham grades out very poorly according to PFF vs. pressure 33.5, and it’s really not optimal to face it in this situation.  I looked further back and Louisville is 7-16 overall when facing a top 50 pass rush with Cunningham as the starter with two of those wins vs. group of 5 team.

Personally, I think we are getting some value, because Pitt lost to Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely to beat Virginia Tech.  In that game they had 3 turnovers in the second half.  I think they take better care of the football here and Louisville actually is worse ranking 93rd in % of possessions ending in TO’s while Pitt ranks 57th.  Pitt, a much more balanced offense than previous years makes them more difficult to prepare for, and they played extremely well on the road a season ago, and are also off the bye.  Narduzzi the last few seasons with extra prep is 8-0 straight up, meanwhile Louisville just 2-4 the last two seasons with 10+ days to prepare and that includes some large losses by 19, 14, and 21 points.  Coaching advantage here for Pitt in my opinion.

Match up wise Pitt also has the advantage as they are both run first teams.  Pitt ranks 56th in epa vs. an average opponent ranking 53.2, while Louisville ranks 72nd vs. 66.  Pitt’s defense ranks 43rd, while Louisville’s ranks 70th.  Pitt also more of a threat in the passing game as Pitt’s pass defense is top 20.  Louisville’s pass defense ranks 88th in qb rating despite having 2nd best pass rush, which is not a great sign heading into this game. Pitt’s other loss, was only only to Tennessee the #3 team in the nation, and nobody played Tennessee better this year than Pitt.

Dolphins +3 5.5% MAX POD

Kentucky +4

Classic buy low sell high situation here as Miss State dominated a good Arkansas team without their QB winning 40-17, while Kentucky lost without their star QB Will Levis as a more than a TD favorite.  Arkansas with a backup QB actually had 3 trips into Miss State territory with no points, so that final score was a bit misleading.  Kentucky is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  They are getting Will Levis back this game, and it will be the third game for Chris Rodriguez at RB, which should make a difference.

Miss State’s air raid offense is tough to defend, but I feel Kentucky can have success.  They rank 26th in epa pass defense this is the third year in a row they are seeing it, and the strength of the team is the LB’s.  Kentucky also a very good red zone defense, and although they haven’t gotten pressure on the QB this year that has been much different at home where they are top 50.  Miss State will move the ball, but Kentucky is 40th in third down stops, and top 25 pass defense overall should be able to slow Miss State enough to cover this #.

Kentucky on the flip side here is still a run first offense despite having issues from their OL.  I don’t think that shows up as much at home here and Miss State’s defensive weakness is their defensive line where they rank 107th in adjusted line ayrds, 102nd in standard down, 92nd vs. the run.  Kentucky since 2018 is 18-2 straight up when facing a team outside the top 75 in run defense.  These are two slow paced teams, and I expect a very tight ball game, but I believe the value is on the Kentucky side as they have also faced the tougher schedule.  Kentucky opponents +0.5 ypp differential compared to Miss State -0.51.  Kentucky could be undefeated they lost against Ole Miss on a late fumble, and obviously played without Levis against South Carolina this past week.  If that were the case wouldn’t they be favored here, but this is the exact spot we like to take Kentucky and Stoops in + the points.

Browns +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion.  Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy.  Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on a bye.

Iowa has all the ingredients of a dog we love.  We have the better defense based on strength of schedule.  Their offense which is catching a lot of shit has only faced an average ypp defense ranking 19.2, and again they face a top 10 defense right now, but a closer look at Illinois and their defense has faced an average opponent offense ranking 91st in ypp.  I understand Iowa ranks 108th, but I have more confidence that they’ll figure it out and Illinois will start to digress.

Honestly, both of these teams are very similar, run first offenses that take their time in pace.  3.5 points for Iowa when the total is 36 points seems like an awful lot.  I also love the fact that Iowa has significant edges in categories most people don’t bother to take a look at.  Special teams they rank 17th, and Illinois ranks 54th.  Penalties, Iowa is top 25 in fewest penalties, while Illinois ranks 106th.  Finally, turnovers which is arguably the most important thing to look at when you handicap a game.  Turnovers are generally luck, but Iowa seems to have a tendency year in and year out to cause turnovers.  They rank 21st in % of opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s, while Illinois ranks 111th on offense turning the ball over 17% of their offensive possessions.  Their QB is Tommy Devito who is typically good for 1 or 2 against top defense.  They actually played a clean game at Wisconsin, but don’t expect it to happen again here, and their star RB Chase Brown already has 2 fumbles. 

One last note, Kirk Ferentz on the road where the spread is single digits, is a cash maker as he has gone 39-24 ATS. 

Browns/Falcons Over 47.5 5.5% MAX POD

Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp.  To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116.  This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters.  There are going to be some growing pains and I think it shows up here against a very tough Troy team that already has proven they can win on the road as was the case at App State where it took a miracle on game day for them to lose.

Troy matches up well here, because of the defensive line, which is the best in the Sun Belt.  They ranked 3rd in sack %, but unlike Western Kentucky, Troy has faced a very tough schedule to start with road games at Ole Miss and App State, and then a very impressive home win last week against Marshall.  They go back on the road to face Western Kentucky, and I think they’ll be in position to win this game.  Western Kentucky’s offense despite facing poor defenses have only converted 34.48% of their plays.  Western Kentucky relying heavily on big plays.  They were #1 in 20+ yard plays a season ago.  Troy was 33rd allowing 20+ plays last season and is top 20 this season despite playing

Western Kentucky has to be feeling good about themselves right now, but they have a monster game on deck.  They’ll face UTSA the team they lost to twice last year including the C-USA Championship.  Troy coming from the Sun Belt is the clear better conference and Western Kentucky just 2-6 ATS their last 8 vs. Sun Belt.

Packers +1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD

Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game.

Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards.  It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week.  Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary.  A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense.  A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks.

A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall.  Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman.  Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating.  At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money?  A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. 

Panthers +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Purdue +1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

We have two one dimensional offenses of different styles going against each other as we have a clash of the Big Ten and ACC.  First off the Big Ten has gone 8-4 vs. the ACC outscoring them by a TD since 2020 so while these two teams appear to be about the same in their given conference I think Purdue and this coaching staff led by Brohm have definitely proven they are the better team.  This is a team that showed they could win on the road winning 5 games last year and are 9-3 ATS overall as an away dog under Jeff Brohm.  Meanwhile, Syracuse as a home favorite under Baber 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.

Purdue’s run defense is going to be the big match up here as Syracuse has a run first offense led by mobile QB Garret Shrader and the great RB Sean Tucker.  Purdue ranks 34th in epa run defense and held Penn State in check in their first game, and allowed less than 4 ypc on the road a season ago. 

Purdue runs a spread 60%+ pass first offense, that I think is harder to defend than Syracuse option run offense.  It also helps that Syracuse ranks 108th in epa pass defense, and ranked outside the top 100 a season ago.  While their designed 3-3-5 defense is built to defense the spread their defense is extremely young especially in the secondary. I actually think Purdue who has a size advantage up front with 3 of their 5 OL being upper classmen and an average total weight of 308lbs.  I look for Purdue to be able to get some explosive plays in this game, which was something they were able to achieve in week 2 but not in the game against Penn State.

I gave out Syracuse at home vs. Louisville in week 1 and it was an easy casher.  Syracuse has a very good home field advantage in a dome, but this is an early noon kickoff, and I think Purdue’s pass first play style is something that will give them trouble.  They only played two teams a season ago that were pass first offenses (Pitt, NC State) those teams won by 17 and 24 putting up 31 and 41 points respectively and dating back 2019 they are 0-7 vs pass first teams, and they have yet to face a team that passes over 60% of the time like Purdue typically does.  Last note on this one.. Jeff Brohm was a +7 dog vs. Dino Babers Bowling Green team back in 2014, and Western Kentucky won 59-31.

Falcons +5.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD

Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive?  They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch.  They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England.  Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again.  If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss.

I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa.  Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line.  Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career.  Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive.  If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side.

49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E

Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book.  That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115.

First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle.  Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points.

Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here.  Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa.

49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole.  This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here.  The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys.

Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa.  Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points.  I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over.  It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough.  On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa.  Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54.

Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money.  I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places.  The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement.  If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits.  It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here.  Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term.  

Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati.  There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue.  Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship.  Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn.  We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game.

Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year.  You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments.  Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense.  He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama.  He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp.  Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51.  In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws.  Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game.  It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better?  I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game.

Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that.  2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT.  In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game.  They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58.  So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games.  Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog.

49ers +3.5 5.5% POD

Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD

Arkansas -125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama / Cinci Under 57.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Nick Saban, a month to prepare for tendencies and strengths, and I think the game plan will be to run the ball, and avoid turnovers.  Alabama came out running no huddle against Georgia, which made a lot of sense, and I think the offense looked great giving us an inflated total here.  Against Cinci, the way to attack them is in the running game. They boast two of the best corners in all of football, the #7 epa pass defense, and 18th sack %, but this defensive front is under sized.  Alabama without Menchie at WR, so I think the plan of attack will be on the ground, which obviously makes the under very attractive.

For Cinci's offense, I'm really not sure how they move the ball with consistency.  All of their big plays come on early downs, and you bet Alabama will be ready for that.  Desmond Ridder is really going to have to play the game of his life to win or put up points, because Alabama #2 in run defense, they're #41 in epa pass defense, and 8th in getting to the QB.  Ridder against good defenses have not been pretty and his offense has benefited largely from the Cinci defense forcing turnovers.  They rank 3rd in forced turnover percentage per drive, but Alabama is 9th on offensive TO% per drive.  I don't anticipate they will have that edge here.

Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% 

UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games.  We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game.  In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense.  They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. 

San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points.  UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB.  They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season.  IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense.  Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge.  They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each.

I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season.  They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever.  Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here.  Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog.  They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th.  This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here.   Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here.  He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games.  The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122.

Steelers -121 5.5% MAX

Bengals +115 5.5% MAX POD

NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I expect a tight game on a neutral field here.  The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different.  Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2.  The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game.  This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin.

Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses.  Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th.  I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th.  It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better.  Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16.  Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you.  They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st.  In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. 

I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and  Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than Army fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army.  Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game.

Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Under 53 5.5% MAX POD

Rams -1 5.5% MAX POD