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Freddy Wills NFL Top Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
02-09-25 Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles Top 22-40 Loss -110 330 h 31 m Show

Chiefs -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

01-26-25 Bills v. Chiefs -125 Top 29-32 Win 100 4 h 26 m Show

Chiefs -125 5.5% NFL POD

01-05-25 Dolphins v. Jets -1 Top 20-32 Win 100 1 h 59 m Show

Jets -1 4.4 % Play play 

12-29-24 Packers v. Vikings Top 25-27 Win 100 9 h 33 m Show

Vikings pk -110 5.5% max POD

12-22-24 Eagles v. Commanders +4 Top 33-36 Win 100 1 h 27 m Show

Commanders +4 5.5% MAX NFL POD

12-15-24 Colts +4.5 v. Broncos Top 13-31 Loss -108 7 h 11 m Show

Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

12-08-24 Bills v. Rams +3.5 Top 42-44 Win 100 6 h 58 m Show

Rams +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

12-01-24 Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings Top 22-23 Win 100 3 h 42 m Show

Cardinals +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

11-24-24 Lions v. Colts +7.5 Top 24-6 Loss -120 5 h 11 m Show

Colts +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-17-24 Falcons v. Broncos -1.5 Top 6-38 Win 100 8 h 25 m Show

Broncos -1.5 5.5% NFL MAX POD

10-31-24 Texans v. Jets -130 Top 13-21 Win 100 3 h 41 m Show

JETS -130 5.5% MAX NFL POD

10-27-24 Packers v. Jaguars +4 Top 30-27 Win 100 4 h 49 m Show

Jaguars +4 5.5% NFL POD

10-13-24 Colts v. Titans -2.5 Top 20-17 Loss -117 17 h 51 m Show

Titans -2.5 -117 5.5% NFL POD

09-22-24 Dolphins +4.5 v. Seahawks Top 3-24 Loss -108 7 h 0 m Show

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% MAX POD

09-15-24 Giants +1.5 v. Commanders Top 18-21 Loss -105 5 h 16 m Show

Giants +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

09-08-24 Jaguars +3.5 v. Dolphins Top 17-20 Win 100 29 h 20 m Show

Jaguars +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

01-28-24 Lions v. 49ers -7 Top 31-34 Loss -110 9 h 41 m Show

49ers -7 5.5% NFL POD

01-21-24 Chiefs +3 v. Bills Top 27-24 Win 100 8 h 59 m Show

Chiefs +3 -120 5.5% NFL POD

01-14-24 Packers +7 v. Cowboys Top 48-32 Win 100 9 h 7 m Show

Packers +7.5 -115 3.5% play 

01-07-24 Bears v. Packers -2.5 Top 9-17 Win 100 5 h 3 m Show

Packers -2.5 -123 5.5% NFL POD

12-24-23 Colts +3 v. Falcons Top 10-29 Loss -115 1 h 5 m Show

Colts +3 -115 4.5% NFL POD

12-03-23 Lions v. Saints +4.5 Top 33-28 Loss -110 3 h 55 m Show

Saints+4.5 5.5% NFL POD

11-26-23 Browns v. Broncos -1 Top 12-29 Win 100 9 h 53 m Show

Broncos -1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-19-23 Chargers v. Packers +3.5 Top 20-23 Win 100 5 h 50 m Show

Packers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

11-12-23 Jets v. Raiders Top 12-16 Loss -110 50 h 38 m Show

Jets pk 5.5% NFL MAX POD 

11-05-23 Cowboys +3 v. Eagles Top 23-28 Loss -110 5 h 51 m Show

cowboys+3.5 -120 5.5% max nfl pod

10-29-23 Texans v. Panthers +3.5 Top 13-15 Win 100 25 h 18 m Show

Panthers +3.5 5.5% pod

10-08-23 Cowboys +3.5 v. 49ers Top 10-42 Loss -110 13 h 50 m Show

Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

09-24-23 Broncos +6 v. Dolphins Top 20-70 Loss -110 4 h 13 m Show

Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD

09-17-23 Dolphins v. Patriots +3 Top 24-17 Loss -123 11 h 11 m Show

PATRIOTS +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

02-12-23 Chiefs +2.5 v. Eagles Top 38-35 Win 100 323 h 36 m Show

Chiefs +3 -125 buy 1/2 point

01-29-23 Bengals v. Chiefs Top 20-23 Win 100 46 h 40 m Show

Chiefs -120 5.5% NFL POD

01-22-23 Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 Top 12-19 Loss -110 31 h 2 m Show

Cowboys / 49ers Over 46 5.5% NFL POD

01-15-23 Giants +3 v. Vikings Top 31-24 Win 100 33 h 38 m Show

Giants +3 -115 5.5% NFL POD

01-01-23 Panthers v. Bucs -3 Top 24-30 Win 100 4 h 12 m Show

Bucs -3 -125 5.5% NFL POD

12-24-22 Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 47 Top 34-40 Win 100 10 h 32 m Show

Eagles / Cowboys Over 47 5.5% NFL POD

12-18-22 Lions v. Jets -1 Top 20-17 Loss -110 55 h 36 m Show

JETS -1 5.5% max nfl pod

12-04-22 Steelers v. Falcons Top 19-16 Loss -110 4 h 39 m Show

Falcons pk 5.5% MAX POD

11-24-22 Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings Top 26-33 Loss -105 29 h 16 m Show

Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Short week definitely is an edge for the more experienced head coach, and Bill Bellechick already admitted that he was preparing for the Vikings during the bye before the Jets game, which I guess makes sense since he's very much familiar with my Jets.  Vikings have some injury issues as they lose their LT to another concussion, the secondary is banged up  and could be exposed here against the Patriots who rank #4 in explosive passing offense.  Patriots have a big edge in special teams and have a top 5 pass defense.  Vikings vs. top 10 pass defenses this season are 1-2 losing to Cowboys and Eagles, but their one win was against the Bills who they should have lost to last week.  Kirk Cousins typically also struggles when he's out of his routine, and this is playing at night + on Thanksgiving. 

 

11-20-22 Eagles v. Colts +7 Top 17-16 Win 100 29 h 33 m Show

Colts +7 5.5% MAX POD

11-06-22 Seahawks v. Cardinals -1.5 Top 31-21 Loss -110 8 h 25 m Show

Cardinals -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

10-30-22 Giants v. Seahawks -3 Top 13-27 Win 100 9 h 48 m Show

Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX POD

10-23-22 Browns +7 v. Ravens Top 20-23 Win 100 4 h 32 m Show

Browns +7 5.5% MAX POD

10-16-22 Vikings v. Dolphins +3 Top 24-16 Loss -105 4 h 43 m Show

Dolphins +3 5.5% MAX POD

10-09-22 Chargers v. Browns +2 Top 30-28 Push 0 5 h 50 m Show

Browns +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

10-02-22 Browns v. Falcons OVER 47.5 Top 20-23 Loss -110 5 h 50 m Show

Browns/Falcons Over 47.5 5.5% MAX POD

09-25-22 Packers +1 v. Bucs Top 14-12 Win 100 32 h 56 m Show

Packers +1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

09-18-22 Panthers +2.5 v. Giants Top 16-19 Loss -105 5 h 26 m Show

Panthers +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

09-11-22 Saints v. Falcons +5.5 Top 27-26 Win 100 5 h 15 m Show

Falcons +5.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

01-30-22 49ers +3.5 v. Rams Top 17-20 Win 100 30 h 32 m Show

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

01-23-22 Rams v. Bucs -2.5 Top 30-27 Loss -112 31 h 43 m Show

Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD

Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive?  They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch.  They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England.  Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again.  If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss.

I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa.  Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line.  Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career.  Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive.  If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side.

01-16-22 49ers +3 v. Cowboys Top 23-17 Win 100 6 h 40 m Show

49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E

Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book.  That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115.

First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle.  Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points.

Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here.  Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa.

49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole.  This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here.  The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys.

Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa.  Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points.  I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over.  It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough.  On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa.  Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54.

01-09-22 49ers +3.5 v. Rams Top 27-24 Win 100 6 h 14 m Show

49ers +3.5 5.5% POD

01-02-22 Chiefs v. Bengals +4 Top 31-34 Win 100 4 h 43 m Show

Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD

12-26-21 Rams v. Vikings +3.5 Top 30-23 Loss -110 4 h 58 m Show

Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% 

12-19-21 Titans v. Steelers -121 Top 13-19 Win 100 4 h 28 m Show

Steelers -121 5.5% MAX

12-12-21 49ers v. Bengals +115 Top 26-23 Loss -100 6 h 43 m Show

Bengals +115 5.5% MAX POD

12-05-21 Chargers +3 v. Bengals Top 41-22 Win 100 4 h 14 m Show

Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-28-21 Rams -1 v. Packers Top 28-36 Loss -114 8 h 14 m Show

Rams -1 5.5% MAX POD

11-21-21 Saints +3 v. Eagles Top 29-40 Loss -110 5 h 10 m Show

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-14-21 Saints +3 v. Titans Top 21-23 Win 100 5 h 7 m Show

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-07-21 Cardinals v. 49ers Top 31-17 Loss -115 44 h 56 m Show

49ers MAX 5.5% NFL POD 

10-31-21 Bucs v. Saints +4.5 Top 27-36 Win 100 8 h 3 m Show

Saints +4.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

10-24-21 Colts +4 v. 49ers Top 30-18 Win 100 12 h 10 m Show

Colts +4 5.5% NFL POD

10-17-21 Raiders +4 v. Broncos Top 34-24 Win 100 7 h 14 m Show

Raiders +4 4.4% NFL POD 

10-10-21 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals Top 10-17 Loss -105 9 h 37 m Show

49ERS +6 BUY 1/2 5.5% NFL POD

10-03-21 Steelers +6 v. Packers Top 17-27 Loss -106 9 h 33 m Show

Steelers +6 5.5% MAX POD

09-26-21 Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Bills Top 21-43 Loss -114 29 h 13 m Show

Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

09-19-21 Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals Top 33-34 Win 100 8 h 26 m Show

Vikings +3.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

09-12-21 Cardinals +3 v. Titans Top 38-13 Win 100 29 h 53 m Show

Arizona +3 5.5% NFL POD

01-17-21 Bucs v. Saints -3 Top 30-20 Loss -105 9 h 20 m Show

Saints -3 4.4% 

01-16-21 Ravens v. Bills -2.5 Top 3-17 Win 100 8 h 28 m Show

Bills -2.5 5.5% NFL POD 

01-09-21 Colts +6.5 v. Bills Top 24-27 Win 100 25 h 58 m Show

COLTS +7 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5% 

01-03-21 Cardinals v. Rams +121 Top 7-18 Win 121 7 h 57 m Show

rams +121 5.5% MAX NFL POD

12-27-20 Rams +1.5 v. Seahawks Top 9-20 Loss -100 7 h 38 m Show

Rams +1.5 5.5% NFL POD

12-20-20 Eagles +7 v. Cardinals Top 26-33 Push 0 4 h 11 m Show

EAGLES +7 5.5% nfl pod 

12-13-20 Chiefs v. Dolphins +7 Top 33-27 Win 100 4 h 49 m Show

Dolphins +7.5 5.5% NFL POD

12-06-20 Browns +5 v. Titans Top 41-35 Win 100 4 h 49 m Show

Browns +5 5.5% POD

11-29-20 Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 Top 27-24 Win 100 8 h 49 m Show

Tamps +3.5 5% 

11-15-20 Seahawks v. Rams -130 Top 16-23 Win 100 8 h 55 m Show

RAMS -130 5.5% MAX NFL POD

11-01-20 Vikings +7 v. Packers Top 28-22 Win 100 3 h 20 m Show

Vikings +7 5.5% 

10-18-20 Texans +4 v. Titans Top 36-42 Loss -110 3 h 10 m Show

Texans 5.5% POD

10-11-20 Colts +1 v. Browns Top 23-32 Loss -108 8 h 34 m Show

Colts +1 4.4% POD

10-04-20 Colts -155 v. Bears Top 19-11 Win 100 8 h 46 m Show

Colts -145 5.5% NFL POD

09-27-20 Rams v. Bills -117 Top 32-35 Win 100 4 h 50 m Show

Bills -117 5.5% POD

09-20-20 Vikings v. Colts -3 Top 11-28 Win 100 3 h 13 m Show

Colts -3 5.5% NFL PO D

09-13-20 Seahawks v. Falcons +1.5 Top 38-25 Loss -110 3 h 37 m Show

Falcons +1.5 4.4% NFL POD

01-19-20 Packers v. 49ers UNDER 47 Top 20-37 Loss -115 9 h 24 m Show

Under 47 5.5% 

12-29-19 Eagles v. Giants +4 Top 34-17 Loss -115 6 h 11 m Show

Giants +3.5 5.5% POD

12-22-19 Steelers v. Jets +3.5 Top 10-16 Win 100 2 h 57 m Show

Jets +3.5 5.5% NFL POD 

12-15-19 Browns v. Cardinals +3 Top 24-38 Win 100 28 h 1 m Show

Cardinals +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

12-08-19 49ers v. Saints -2 Top 48-46 Loss -109 5 h 13 m Show

Saints -2 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

12-01-19 Browns v. Steelers +2.5 Top 13-20 Win 100 1 h 54 m Show

Steelers +3

11-24-19 Seahawks v. Eagles -109 Top 17-9 Loss -109 3 h 38 m Show

Eagles -115 5.5% NFL POD

11-17-19 Jaguars v. Colts -135 Top 13-33 Win 100 3 h 41 m Show

Colts -135 5.5% NFL POD

11-10-19 Chiefs v. Titans +6 Top 32-35 Win 100 46 h 24 m Show

Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD

11-03-19 Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 Top 20-37 Win 100 34 h 5 m Show

Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD

10-27-19 Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 Top 31-24 Loss -105 9 h 58 m Show

Chiefs +5.5 5.5% POD

10-20-19 Texans v. Colts -1 Top 23-30 Win 100 4 h 48 m Show

Colts -1 5.5% NFL POD

10-13-19 Falcons v. Cardinals +2.5 Top 33-34 Win 100 7 h 60 m Show

Cardinals +3 -120 5.5% 

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