Texans 5.5% POD

Colts +1 4.4% POD

Colts -145 5.5% NFL POD

Bills -117 5.5% POD

Colts -3 5.5% NFL PO D

Falcons +1.5 4.4% NFL POD

Under 47 5.5% 

Giants +3.5 5.5% POD

Jets +3.5 5.5% NFL POD 

Cardinals +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Saints -2 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

Steelers +3

Eagles -115 5.5% NFL POD

Colts -135 5.5% NFL POD

Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD

Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +5.5 5.5% POD

Colts -1 5.5% NFL POD

Cardinals +3 -120 5.5% 

Steelers +3.5 5.5% POD

LIONS +7.5 5.5% NFL POD

Saints +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Lions +2 5.5% POD

Panthers +2 4.4% NFL POD 

Patriots -132 5.5% NFL POD 

Patriots/Rams Under 56.5 5.5% POD

Saints -3 5.5% NFL POD

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Cowboys +7 4.4% POD

Chargers +3 4.4% NFL POD

Cowboys -125 5.5% NFL POD

Packers -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers -3 5.5% NFL POD

Lions +4 4.4% NFL POD

Vikings +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Bengals +6 5.5% NFL POD

Seahawks pk 5.5% POD

49ers -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Ravens -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers +110 5.5% NFL POD

Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD

NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers pk 4.4% play 

Redskins +135 5.5% NFL POD

Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD

Bengals +121 5.5% POD

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD

Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD

Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD

TITANS +8 5.5% POD

Panthers +4 5.5% POD

49ers +4.5 5.5% POD

Browns +7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +100 4.5% NFL POD

Eagles +100 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +14 5.5% POD

Lions +3 4.4% POD

Bills +7 5.5% POD

Bills +130 5.5% NFL POD

Titans -3.5 5.5% POD

Lions +3 5.5% Pod +100

Cleveland Browns +6 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +10 5.5% POD

Dolphins -110 5.5% pod

Chargers -1.5 5.5% POD

Bills +3.5 5.5% POD

Patriots -3 -105 5.5% POD

Packers +185 5.5% POD

Packers +175 5.5% POD

Packers -5.5 5.5% POD

Raiders +4 5.5% NFL POD

Packers -3.5 5.5% POD

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Bears +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Packers +140 5.5% POD

Cardinals -2.5 5.5% POD

PANTHERS +3.5 5.5% POD

Ravens +7.5 5.5% POD +300 2% BONUS

TEXANS +120 5.5% POD 

Dolphins +125 5.5% NFL POD

I will take the Dolphins on the money line here as our top play.  I don't trust the Bills in this spot laying points to a divisional opponent for the first time since 2008 and they have a big game next week against the Patriots.  Lesean McCoy is questionable for this game with the hamstring.  Even if he's a go he won't be 100% as hamstring injuries are very difficult to over come in a few days.  Too much value on the home team here as the Bills were struggling last week against the 49ers halfway through the third quarter a week ago and cruised to a misleading win. 

Lions +4 5.5% POD

Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 5.5% NFL POD Tampa lost to the Rams last week, but arguably they have had one of the tougher schedules. Denver has probably exceeded everyone’s expectations while the Bucs who many thought were going to be great have struggled. This is a game I see the Bucs winning outright. I think their offense should have enough success as Denver is 25th in rushing yards per carry allowed, Tampa is actually 8th. If I told you Tampa had the better run defense this year I think you would be surprised. This is also a tough travel spot for Denver coming from Denver down to Tampa Bay. If I told you Denver was 30th in third down defense you would also probably be shocked. Tampa is actually 12th in third down defense.

Jaguars +1 5.5% POD
The Ravens coming into this game at 2-0, but who have they beat? They rallied a week ago in a division game to beat the lowly Clevland Browns. In week 1 they defeated the Buffalo Bills who have already fired their offensive coordinator. Jaguars lost last week at San Diego which for a young team was a tough trip, but coming back home at 0-2 I think there is a lot of value on this team. Jaguars actually out gained both of their opponents despite going 0-2, and there is this thought that the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars. I'm sure the public will be rushing to play the Ravens in this one.

Panthers -1 / TB Bucs +1 4.4% Teaser
This is a horrible situation for the Vikings to travel to after they beat the Packers in prime-time. They lose 2 more key players in their running back Peterson and tackle Matt Kalil. Two huge loses that I'm not sure this Vikings team can over come. The Panthers meanwhile have shown some weaknesses in their secondary, but I don't see the Vikings taking advantage. Sam Bradford played well last week, but asking him to win on the road is too much to ask. Panthers 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

For the Bucs, Jameis Winston coming back home off the worst game of his career in the blow out loss at Arizona. That's the story with Winston though he's hot and cold, and I'm expecting a huge bounce back week against the Rams who beat the Seahawks in our POD last week. Expecting them to struggle on the road. The Rams are a bad offensive team, and the Tampa Bay Bucs can be explosive at times under Winston. I see a victory by a TD. The Rams playing in an early game on the road in the humidity of Tampa Bay will be a challenge.

[b]RAMS +7 5.5% POD[/b]

The Rams could not have looked worse a week ago, but I don't think they are this bad.  There has been roughly a 4 point adjustment made, and the Rams may have been peaking ahead to this game anyway.  Rams are 6-2 ATS against Russell Wilson, who is coming in to this game banged up.  Also worth noting is how bad the Seahawks offensive line is.  This is clearly not the same team and the strength of the Rams defense is the defensive line.  This is their first game in LA, and I expect them to make a statement and have a chance to pull off the upset.  I'm not a huge fan of Case Keenum, but Todd Gurley is arguably a top 3 running back.  I think this is a low scoring game and 7 points is just too much value here for the home team.

TEASER ALERT - JETS +8.5 W/ CARDINALS -1 4.4% 

Jaguars +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

The Jaguars were getting pre-season hype, but when playing the Packers that goes out the window.  The public simply loves to back the big name QB, and that's no exception to open up the season.  The Jaguars have the offensive weapons to score with anyone and I think this is a huge statement game for them.  It also helps they are playing this in their home state.  This is not an easy trip for a cold weather team to be making even if it is in September.  Humidity is a key here as it's going to be in the 90's and will be near 70% humidity which I do give an edge to the Jaguars for. 

The Packers are not taking this Jaguars team seriously and probably are overlooking them a bit here with their division game against the Vikings up next week.  After all they are 19-61 over the last 5 years, but Jacksonville has the weapons on both sides of the ball.  The defense is very under rated, but extremely athletic.  I can see rookie corner Jalen Ramsey making a big play or two, and the Jaguars first round pick a year ago Dante Fowler is also a candidate to cause nightmares for offensive lines which is key, because the Packers are already without their starter Corey Linsley at Center which is a very underrated and under appreciated position in the NFL.

Broncos +6 5.5* NFL POD; Broncos +197 1* bonus

It seems like everyone is on the Panthers for this game, but late action coming in on the Broncos possibly as the line has moved down off the 6 to 5.5, but 6 is regularly available still and I’m taking the Broncos at +6. (Stay tuned for my bonus prop package which will be added at the end of this write up late Saturday early Sunday).

Listen, the Panthers have looked unstoppable and have dones so against 2 of the better defenses in the NFC, but I still don’t think those defenses were as healthy, and they certainly are not nearly as good as this Denver group (more on that later).  I actually backed the Panthers in the NFC Championship big, and it paid off, but the final score is misleading and it has everyone backing Cam Newton and the Panthers for this Super Bowl.  I have heard 8 out of 10 people stating how the Panthers will win and dominate, but I’m not so sure for various reasons.  The most common reason I hear is the “Panthers offense is unstoppable, and the Broncos offense is awful.”  I also hear that Panthers defense is just as good as Denver.  I disagree, and we have seen the Broncos move their offense against good defenses.  4 of their last 5 games they have scored 20+ points and have done so against top defenses.

Let’s get into the misleading fact of the Denver offense and Carolina offense, because I think it’s critical to bring up.  Let’s look at stats and strength of schedule.  Denver comes in with the 24th ranked offense on paper form a yards per play perspective and they have done this with 2 QB’s and a very conservative approached offense.  Along with that they have faced 11 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  So their offense has had a tough challenge all year.  When you look at Carolina in comparison it really does not compare.  The Panthers have faced just 6 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  Their division opponents not very good in Atlanta and New Orleans so that plays a big factor, but this team really hasn’t played a defense like Denver with the exception of Seattle.

They scored 31 and 27 points on Seattle and that was impressive, but Denver is a better defense.  They run a 3-4 with size as opposed to the 4-3, and Denver can get to the QB unlike Seattle this year.  Denver ranks #1 in sack %.  Before I get into the pass defense of the Denver Broncos we all know that stopping the Panthers is going to be about stopping the run.  Denver ranks #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed.  I mentioned in my Panthers write up last week the size of the inner linebackers for the Cardinals was going to be a huge issue as they average 226lbs, but Denver averages 249.  Carolina has faced just 4 teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry defense.  Tampa, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.  In reality those defenses really don’t scare you with the exception of Seattle and not any of these teams ranked top 10 in all 4 key pass defense categories that I look at – opponent pass yards per completion, sack % of drop backs, opponent QB rating, and opponent QB completion %.

Cam Newton only faced 2 teams this season ranked in the top 10 in passing defense completion %.  I bring that up, because I don’t think Cam Newton is very accurate.  I think he might have gotten lucky at late with some passes that were just beautifully thrown with poor foot work.  I think the Denver Broncos can get him into a lot of those situations because of their pass rush.  Carolina was 24th in completion % despite not playing any defenses that were very good at coverage and the Broncos rank 5th.  So how are we getting 6 points with a defense that is this good, and nothing like the Panthers have ever seen this season? 

Lastly, I’ll mention special teams because you often see it play such a huge factor in the Super Bowl.  Some will never take a team with the worse special teams in a match up, but according to football outsiders the Denver Broncos are 14th in special teams efficiency compared to the Panthers at 23rd.  

**PROP PLAYS**

Danny Trevathan - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles - Must Play

Take Over 7.5 -130 1.3* play to win 1

I really like Trevathan, who was one of the only guys that showed up in the Broncos last Super Bowl.  Trevathan had 12 combined tackles in that game.  I think the way the Panthers play fits right into Trevathan’s strengths here and I expect him to be all over the field especially since the Panthers like to run the ball a lot.

Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must Play

Under 5.5 yards -130 – 1.3* play to win 1

In just 4 games this year did Cam Newton have a rush over 5.5 yards as his first rush of the game.  He now faces the Denver Broncos the best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, and they are 3rd in explosive runs allowed.

Panthers vs Broncos: Will Either Team Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game2016-02-07 18:30

No -120 1.2* PLAY 

Neither of these two teams move quickly.  They take a lot of time off per each drive.  Denver is also 5th in points allowed in the first quarter.  The first quarter is the lowest scoring quarter in Super Bowl History by a big margin which makes sense.  Most teams start by trying to feel each other out.

Vernon Davis Over 5.5 Receiving Yards +120 2* play

Vernon Davis returns to the 49ers Stadium for the Super Bowl.  He has gotten 0 targets over the last 4 games and Owen Daniels caught 2 TD’s in the last one, but I certainly feel Vernon Davis could be the X factor here.  I like everything I have read about Davis in terms of what he is saying to the media.  There have been stories that he has struggled to pick up the offense, but with 2 weeks to prepare Peyton Manning would be stupid not to get him into certain plays and the Panthers have shown vulnerabilities down field against teams like Seattle.  I really like what I’m hearing from Davis and this is great value. Davis has said this week in the media, “I’m back in Santa Clara where I grew up from a little boy to a man,” Davis said this week of his NFL upbringing with the 49ers. “I’m back here. My house is 12 minutes away. It’s been a great experience and I look forward to the rest.”

Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary. 

I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* playWhen you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense. 

Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite.

 CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%. 

Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game.

Panthers -3 5.5* NFL pod

Panthers -2 5.5* NFL POD

I am going with the Panthers in this spot for various reasons.  First of all it's good to note that I have probably faded the Panthers more times this season only to be proven wrong.  I did the same thing with Cam Newton when he was at Auburn only to come back and bet Auburn big late in that season to dominating wins.  I think I have learned my lesson and the value is extraordinary here with the Panthers.  I don't know any other situation where you'd have a 15-1 team going against an 11-6 team as an under dog.  I get they are 2 point favorites, but in everyone's eyes the Panthers are under dogs here today.  They have a lot to prove, and that same message is clear from Panther players this week in the media.

They still have to play the game and while I'm not a huge fan of betting a team that won in the regular season, but the Panthers certainly gained a ton of confidence in Seattle when they had their 4th quarter come back off back to back 80 yard TD drives to win the game.  TD drives is the key here, because Carolina is one of the best in the red zone at 72% TD rate at home.  The other thing to note is Cam Newton threw 2 INT's in that game, and Seattle had Jimmy Graham who caught 8 receptions for 140 yards and they still lost.  No Jimmy Graham this time, and the running game of Seattle is struggling so it's going to be on the shoulders of Russell Wilson.  Let's also not discount the travel that Seattle has had to under take this last week going out to Minnesota, back to Seattle, and now back to Carolina to play a 1pm game.

You could make an argument that Seattle has the better defense, but I would hesitate to agree.  When you look at what they did down the stretch hey held Minnesota to 7 and 10 points, Baltimore without Flaco to 6, Cleveland to 13, and Arizona who had zero incentive to play to 6 points, and they gave up 23 points to the Rams offense at home in a loss.  I think Seattle's defense is very good, but they haven't really faced many top offenses.  They faced Arizona/Pittsburgh the two top YPP offenses and both scored over 30 points on them when it mattered. The Bengals were 9th and put up 27 on Seattle, and Carolina is 12th and put up 27 on the Seahawks.  So the Seahawks defense played only 5 games against top 12 offenses in the league and when you take out Arizona in week 17 because they were seriously not interested in showing anything, they allowed an average of 30.75 points per game.

Carolina's defense faced the following top 12 offenses: New Orleans - 22 points allowed, Tampa 23, Seattle 23, Washington 16, New Orleans 38, Atlanta 0, Giants 35, Atlanta 20, Tampa 10.  To summarize they faced 9 teams in the top 12 in yards per play offense and allowed 20.78 points per game.  The Panthers gave up some big numbers late and I feel those were due to injuries.  I expect this team to be a lot healthier and it also pays to play at home where they are #1 in yards per point.

I expect this game to be close in the first half with low scoring, but we have seen these defenses loosen up quite a bit in the 4th quarter of games.  I would expect if this game is close at the half for the total to go over in the second half.  Also something to look at as you feel this game out. 

Patriots -4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I really like the Pats here in this spot given the fact that they are off the bye, getting healthier and off 2 straight losses.  The Patriots will return some key guys for this one including LT Volmer who protects Brady’s blind side.  I also think this team will be coached up to handle the Chiefs blitz schemes and will have a good game plan to move the ball and put points on the board.

For the Chiefs they come in red hot, and off a 30-0 victory last week.  Very impressive we cashed with the Chiefs as well but 8 of their 11 wins during this streak have been against the bottom teams in the league.  The 3 wins were against teams that were arguably not at their best.  Texans win was very easy to see when we saw Hoyer turning the ball over so many times.  The Patriots have just 14 turnovers on the year the fewest among any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs heavily rely on winning the turnover margin and are 0-4 ATS when they don’t this year.

KC also beat Pittsburgh, but they beat them with Landry Jones at QB the 3rd string QB.  They then also beat the Broncos, but again the Broncos had Osweiler making his first start in that game.  Winning 11 games straight in the NFL is not easy by any stretch, but KC certainly had a lot of luck along the way.  They also are more banged up here with 2 offensive lineman being out, and Jeremy Maclin being questionable.  Maclin is their only deep threat, and with Kelce the only other threat in the passing game will make it very difficult for the Chiefs to move the ball.  I’d be shocked if they got to 20 points, and I see the Patriots scoring 24-31 here.  Also worth noting is what happened last year when these two met in KC where the Chiefs blew the Patriots out and everyone was saying the Patriots were done.  I’m sure somehow that is motivating to someone with the Patriots and it will show up tomorrow. 

Cardinals -1 with Broncos -1 4.4* teaser+

Let’s start with Arizona over Green Bay. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals are the better team, but the Pack just came off an impressive win on the road over the Redskins.  I don’t see it happening again this week.  In order for this offense to have success hey must run the ball, and I can’t see them doing against the front 7 of the Cardinals which is a top 10 run defense unit allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The Redskins were ranked 30th against the run and it was a clear issue.

I also don’t believe much has changed for the two teams since they last met and the Cardinals are actually a little healthier.  Cards have been waiting on this game and I just think they are the better overall team.

Denver Broncos –

To me I saw that Peyton Manning is very close to 100% with the foot.  He was able to take snaps under center and hand the ball off.  Manning didn’t play for weeks and now he’s ready to go in the playoffs.  I think that’s perfect, because the last few seasons he was fighting injuries in the playoffs and now he’s actually fresh.  For the Steelers Antonio Brown is ruled out, and they do have other weapons, but I’m not sure Big Ben can throw down the field if he plays the entire game.  His arm is not near 100%, and I think the Broncos actually knock him out of this game.  The Broncos defense is the best in the league and they are at home with the extra week of rest.  The road teams won last week, but I’m betting that the home teams are victorious this week.

Redskins -108 5.5* NFL POD

There is not one game in the recent future that makes me feel comfortable backing the Packers here today.  Most of the public action will be on the Packers here today because of Aaron Rodgers, but there is just something that isn’t right about him.  This team scored a combined 21 points in their last 2 games to close out the season and a good Packers team does not lose a meaningful home game at the end of the season.  In fact the Packers lost games down the stretch to each of their division opponents. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 29th in the league in yards per play offense.  That’s a shocking stat I don’t think many would anticipate and they are averaging 3.9 yards per play over their last 3 games combined.

The Redskins on the other hand are 10th in the league in yards per play and have many more offensive weapons for Kirk Cousins to throw to.  They are also averaging 6.7 over their last 3 combined.  Washington 7th in protecting their QB while the Packers are 24th and are allowing Rodgers to be sacked 12.5% of his drop backs.  Part of it is his offensive line and the other part is nobody is open.  At the end of the day I trust the Redskins to move the ball better and control this game especially at home.  DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and even Jamison Crowder are some real weapons that will be the difference in this game.

Washington at home this year allowing 31.25% TD percentage in the red zone which should be a major challenge for the Packers who are coming into this game 18th overall in red zone TD%, and over their last 3 have been successful 18.18% of the time.  Washington on the other hand comes in at 61.22% and 68% at home.  Turnovers are another key and Washington does not turn the ball over at home.  In fact Cousins has 16 TD’s to 2 Interceptions.  Today will be a challenge for Cousins going up against a top 10  pass defense, but I think he can score enough points to win this game. 

Vikings +10.5  & U46.5 3.3* Teaser

We will have extreme cold conditions on Sunday in this rematch of early December.  Usually you’d like the revenge factor with the Vikings losing 38-7 last time out and the reason I like this game to be a lot closer is the fact that the Vikings are healthy on defense returning 3 starters for this game.  Mike Zimmer also one of the top defensive minds in the game will have a better game plan for Wilson and company here in the cold temperatures they are expected to be facing.

These are two teams ranked in the top 5 in third down defense, and red zone defense.  Two offenses that are of the slower in the league in pace and both are in the top 10 in giveaways per game.  They just don’t turn the ball over so this game is going to be something that’s played very conservatively.  For the Seahawks I expect a little bit of a slow start playing at 10AM which is going to keep the Vikings in this game late.

Bengals +120 4* NFL POD

This is a risky move playing the Bengals today given this coaching staff has been around forever and they still can’t win a playoff game, but maybe it helps that they are facing an opponent they are very familiar with in their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in with way too much hype, and have been out gained in 3 of their last 4 games.  I’m taking the home dog here, with the better running game and defense.  The Steelers now on their 3rd RB with DeAngelo Williams declared out for this game, and I think that falls into the advantage of the Bengals who will give up yards on the ground.  Cinci has held Big Ben under 300 yards passing in both games, and are going to make it extremely difficult for him to score.

The Bengals offensively are guided by A.J. McCarron today with Dalton being declared out, and it’s funny because McCarron is getting absolutely no respect, and I think I’d want to back a guy like this who has done nothing but win in his career.  Granted he played with Alabama, but he has the more talented team surrounding him here today and I think he plays smart football giving the Bengals a win.  The Bengals are actually better in the red zone 5th in fact in TD%, while the Steelers are 10th and the Bengals are 5th in defense, and are only allowing 33.3% TD’s in the red zone at home while the Steelers are allowing 55.56% on the road. 

That would mean this game comes down to the Big plays.  If the Bengals can eliminate them they should win this game.  The Steelers are 5th in Big play % and ironically 47 have been from running while 43 are in the passing game.  The Bengals are 2nd in big plays allowed in the running game, and 2nd in opponent big play passing games.  Another thing people don’t typically take a look at is special teams and the Bengals are much better in that department than the Steelers.

Detroit Lions -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Lions have very quietly played the best football down the stretch going 5-2, and completely turning their season around after a 1-7 start.  Matthew Stafford has been extremely impressive with a 16 to 2 TD/INT ratio since the Lions fired Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator.  Sometimes you see these moves that make absolutely no difference, but it was clear the offense was not responding to Lombardi.  Even at 5-2 the Lions should have been 7-0 when you consider how they lost those two games.  A hail mary by Rodgers, and I thought they had out played the Rams earlier this month as well.

The Lions also likely playing for their head coach here.  Jim Caldwell on the hot seat where John Fox is not and I think that’s a huge difference in this match up that gives the Lions the edge.  One of the leaders in the Lions locker room made it very obvious that the Lions players want Caldwell back.  Calvin Johnson is arguably the biggest name on the Lions and I expect that when he comes out and says something in the public that it’s pretty much the majority feeling of the team.  Johnson stating – “Love him.  Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect.. Guys gravitate towards him.”

The Lions are just playing better right now, and the Bears do not own a home field advantage going 8-22-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 1-6 at home this season

Browns +11.5 5.5* NFL POD

1-7 ATS their last 8, Chiefs 7-1 ATS their last 8, but I’m going to back the Browns here.  Manziel looked good against Seattle despite his team losing 30-13.  This is the second week in a row that the Browns are double digit dogs, and the second week in a row that the Chiefs are double digit favorites.  The Chiefs were 10.5 point favorites against San Diego and nearly got taken to OT as their offense scored just 10 points.  This is a conservative coaching staff and again will be in a MUST win game and we should expect nothing more than a conservative approach.  I expect the Browns to play hard, and I don’t think they have mailed it in.  Manziel wants to prove something down the stretch, and I think this is far too many points not to get excited about. 

Giants +4 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Giants who need to win every game, the Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff bye and while they should be motivated to play for the undefeated season, but they are banged up a bit right now.  The Giants have 7 loses this year and 5 have been by 4 points or less and when you look at who the Panthers on the road it’s just 1 potential playoff team in the Seahawks so they have really had an easy run on the road and I see their perfect season coming to an end against the Giants on Sunday who are the perfect team to give them trouble.

Jaguars -2.5 5.5* NFL POD

The Jaguars are 4-8, but I feel like they are the better team here right now.  They have not been as fortunate as the Colts this season, and the Colts again are having injury issues with their QB.  Matt Hasselback will make the start, but he’s banged up with the ribs.  The Jaguars got lit up in the 4th quarter in their last game, but that was to a mobile QB in Marcus Mariotta, this is a completely different situation here.  The Colts also could be peaking ahead to their showdown with the Texans next week who they are tied with in the division, but let’s not sleep on the Jaguars even at 4-8.  They get Atlanta at home next week, followed by road games at New Orleans and Houston and could very much be alive to a spot in the playoffs.

The Jaguars want a little revenge for their loss on the road against the Colts in OT where they clearly out played them in Indy.  Bortles had a good game without a turnover and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 105 yards, but they lost that game.  The Jaguars are the much healthier team right now, and just because Hasselback is 4-1 people are expecting that success to continue when in reality he could easily be 0-5 as he has been out gained in every single start.  I see nothing different here if nothing else it will be worse with Hassleback being limited or could get knocked out of this game with the first hit.

Raiders +125 5.5* POD

The Chiefs are really banged up right now and going back on the road where they have found success of late in division play winning at Denver, and again at San Diego, but in reality they found both of those teams at the right time.  Denver had 3 of their better defenders injured in that game, and San Diego has been rattled with injuries all year long.  In this game it’s the Chiefs with the injuries to the offensive line, now their best defensive player Justin Houston which will dramatically change that pass rush.

The Chiefs have been playing well lately, and you have to give them credit, but they are forcing 14 turnovers over their last 5 games which have left this offense looking better than it really is.  Oakland is tied for 4th in fewest interceptions thrown per game so unless they start fumbling the ball they should be in good shape here.

Oakland at home is a huge advantage, and I like the way the QB is playing ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion percentage despite having literally no running game.  KC ranks 20th in 3rd down conversions, and are even worse on the road this year.  Oakland’s defense is going to get the brunt of the disrespect in this one, but they have been pretty good at home allowing just 32% conversions on third down which gives them a match up advantage here, and that has trickled into their red zone defense which is ranked 11th overall, but at home they are allowing just 45% TD’s.  KC who is known to have the better defense comes into this one ranked 29th allowing 64.52%, and 65% on the road.  Oakland also top 10 in the red zone TD% scoring 61% of the time and 64% at home which again says a lot considering this team does not have a running game.  KC ranks 21st at 51%. 

DALLAS COWBOYS -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Cowboys play really well at home during Thanksgiving Day, this is a short week for Carolina, I’m tired of seeing this team win, and I finally think they meet their destiny.  This is probably first match up all season that they face an offensive line that’s better than their defensive line.  The return of Tony Romo is huge, I don’t doubt he’ll still be rusty, but the running game improved, the offense will stay on the field a lot more, and that will help the defense as it did last game.  Greg Hardy also should be fired up for this game, and I expect it to rub off on this defense as they will force the Panthers into a few turnovers.  The crazy thing is the Panthers have only been on the road 4 times this season in 10 games.  They don’t have a win on the road against a winning team.  The Jaguars have a losing record, the Bucs have a losing record, the Seahawks are 5-5, and the Titans have a losing record.  Yes I know the Cowboys don’t have a winning record either, but this is a team that’s in a must win the rest of the year.  The intensity is there they are health, and Carolina is coming over on a short week.

EAGLES +8.5 / BEARS +14.5 3.3* NFL Teaser

I will tease the early and late game here in what I feel is an excellent spot.  This is a buy low sell high situation in the Eagles vs. Detroit as the Lions are playing well all of a sudden, and the Eagles are coming off one of their worst games ever with all kinds of rumors swirling. I just don’t see this team getting beat by more than a TD if at all to the Lions who have been awful on Thanksgiving Day.  Too many distractions in the early game for the home team with nothing left to play for.  The Eagles just 1 game back in the NFC East.

For the Bears, they are one of the best coached teams in the league and once again I like the road team.  Green Bay off the big win but this is far too much credit they made Teddy Bridgewater beat them which was expected.  It was cold I predicted Green Bay would win that game, but they didn’t look great doing so.  Aaron Rodgers shoulder is not 100% which is a HUGE factor that nobody is talking about, and it’s not like this defense can stop the Bears pass or rushing and expect the other to take care of itself.  The Bears have the weapons and coaching to beat you with the run or the pass, and this is a division rival that likely will be decided by less than a TD, but I like the value we get with the line move to grab them over 2 TD’s