San Diego gets the better overall pitching matchup in the finale on Sunday. The Padres are expected to start Michael King (2-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) while the Angels counter with Reid Detmers (1-1, 3.57 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Detmers has been solid enough this season, but King has been the steadier and more proven arm otherwise. As such, the matchup will probably come down to which starter can do their job better early in this game. 

This overall bounce-back angle for San Diego also helps their case. Los Angeles won Game 1 of the series 8-0 on Friday and ended the Padres eight-game winning streak. However, losses like that often create sharp responses from teams that had been playing well in the days leading up to it. San Diego had been playing very good prior to Friday and that still holds true today. San Diego is still 14-7 on the season while Los Angeles sits behind at 11-11.

Best overall team form also leans towards San Diego. The Padres have been the more consistent team through the start of the season. Sunday’s game also sets them up well to mitigate damage with King on the hill. If he can deliver six solid innings and keep the Angels’ offense at bay early, San Diego should be able to win this game here on Sunday.

927. Padres -1.10 (1:07 pt / 4:07 et)

Milwaukee enters Sunday on top thanks to advantages with both recent performance and the likely pitching matchup. Milwaukee is winning four games in a row and already won the series with victories Friday (7-5) and Saturday (5-2), while Miami is losing four games in a row and seven of its last eight overall. Listed starters for Sunday are Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee and Eury Perez for Miami, and the stats strongly favor Milwaukee’s side: Misiorowski arrives at 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 33 strikeouts across 21.2 innings pitched, while Perez is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across just 20 innings.

Misiorowski’s strikeout potential is the biggest reason to feel bullish on Milwaukee in this spot. With 33 strikeouts across 21-plus innings, Milwaukee should feel confident that it can get through at least part of its Sunday start with minimal damage from Miami at the plate. Perez has upside but his early numbers are not quite as strong: Miami pitchers are still hitting (.300) against him and Perez has allowed 20 hits, 11 walks, and 4 homers across his first 20 innings.

Miami also just isn’t playing good baseball right now. Milwaukee pitchers, especially Brandon Woodruff on Saturday, are sharp, while Miami bats have shown poor command of the strike zone by hitting into eight Marlins pitchers walks on Saturday alone. When you can’t trust your own pitching to hold opponents scoreless, anything can happen. Against Milwaukee, that could mean disaster: Miami doesn’t want to fall into a game behind the Brewers, but shaky pitching and poor lineup performance have doomed them recently.

It’s a relatively simple proposition: Milwaukee has been playing well, they’ve already won the series, and they have the statistical advantage on the mound. Should Milwaukee get the Misiorowski we’ve seen so far, they should pick up another win on Sunday and sweep Miami.

Jim's Play: 903. Brewers 

Cleveland has several reasons it could hit the jackpot Sunday. For starters, the Guardians will arrive as favorites having won the series lead and owning a better home record. They lead this four-game set 2-1 with Saturday’s victory, and Cleveland is at 12-10 overall and 6-3 at home against Baltimore’s 10-11 overall record and 4-5 on the road. Experience at Progressive Field matters in a getaway game when the Guardians have been far more consistent.

That pitching matchup leans Cleveland’s way, too. Joey Cantillo gets the start for Cleveland against Trevor Rogers in Baltimore. Their numbers so far this season are Cantillo: 2.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 20.2 innings. Rogers owns a 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 23.2 innings pitched. Yes, this is a very close matchup between two talented arms, but Cantillo has been just a touch better by run prevention and strikeout ability. Cleveland also has the edge of playing at home with him on the mound.

Pitching was not even the only reason to like Cleveland yesterday. Their entire pitching staff dismantled Baltimore’s lineup on Saturday, so why couldn’t they do it again on Sunday? The Guardians allowed four hits and struck out 16 Orioles on Saturday, led by Gavin Williams punching out 11 over seven innings of work. Baltimore’s “middle of the order entered Sunday combined to go 0-for-12 with 11 strikeouts.” We’ll see if Baltimore’s bats bounce back, but Cleveland’s pitching staff was able to expose a lot of swing-and-miss from this lineup and if they can do it again, they’re in a great spot.

Between having the series lead, being better at home, having a favorable enough matchup with Cantillo on the mound, and exposing Baltimore’s lineup to be extremely pitch-to-contact on Saturday, Cleveland has its formula for a win should they get another quality start from their pitching staff.

Jim's Play: 916. Guardians

Giants fans should feel confident about winning Sunday for one big reason: The Giants hold the pitching advantage. San Francisco is bringing the considerably tougher arm to this matchup, trotting out Robbie Ray (2-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 24 strikeouts) against Washington’s presumed starter Miles Mikolas (0-3 with an 11.49 ERA). That’s a massive spread on the MLB oddsboard, and it’s reason enough to fade Washington here.

On top of that pitching tilt, San Francisco comes into this game riding high after taking care of Washington 10-5 on Friday. Beyond winning, the Giants finally got their offense going after several muted games, posting a six-run second inning while also getting big games from Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman. This element matters because if San Francisco’s lineup is waking up, Ray won’t need to throw nearly as many zeroes to put his team in a position to win.

Washington’s recent pitching struggles also aid San Francisco’s case. Friday’s game saw Washington punched around in a losing effort, and now the Nationals will trot out Mikolas, who owns gruesome early-season numbers that should lead to traffic and runs on Sunday. Couple that with San Francisco getting a veteran southpaw in Ray, and the Giants should simply sit back and let their starter eat some innings before attacking Washington’s starter and forcing the Nationals to chase the game.

At this point, it’s simple: The Giants have the better starter, appeared to wake up at the plate on Friday and will take the field against an ineffective Washington pitcher. If Ray can provide another stable outing, San Francisco finds themselves in a prime spot to cap off this series with a victory.

Jim's Play: 901. Giants

The Padres have plenty of reasons why they can win this interconference matchup. Not only do they receive a very hittable opposing starter, but they’re still the steadier overall team even after Friday’s shutout loss.

Saturday’s probable pitching matchup has German Marquez taking the mound for San Diego against Yusei Kikuchi for the Angels. While Marquez has been shaky in his first two outings, Kikuchi has been even more prone to getting pounded around thus far this season at 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP while allowing 24 hits across 18 innings. The Padres should be able to take advantage and wake up their offense after being held scoreless in game one.

Speaking of being held scoreless, there’s also an immediate bounce-back angle to focus on. Friday’s game saw the Angels take Game 1 by scoring eight runs against Jose Urquidy and effectively ended San Diego’s eight-game winning streak. However, one lackluster game doesn’t undo how well the Padres were playing prior to Friday. San Diego came into the series on the eight-game win streak while and overall record of 13-7. That’s a stronger record than the Angels’ 11-10 overall mark and teams that play as consistently as San Diego does often come out swinging after a stagnant opener, let alone Game 2 of a short series.

They also get a chance to “flip the script” in a hurry as Kikuchi has been allowing plenty of traffic through opposing lineup sheets and that won’t bode well for any offense looking to send a message after getting shut down the night before. Outside of Friday’s disappointing outcome, San Diego has been one of baseball’s hotter teams over their last week of play and this is exactly the type of scenario where an experienced team can flip the script. If they grind out some better at-bats early, they can quickly put pressure on a struggling left-hander.

Your Interconference Game of the Month angle here is pretty cut-and-dry. San Diego is the better team overall, Friday’s loss creates a recipe for a focused bounce-back effort and the Padres receive the softer side of the pitching matchup against Kikuchi. If they take better advantage of early opportunities, they have every chance at responding with a win on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 979. Padres

Arizona has all the tools to win Saturday: the Diamondbacks are in better form, they have the pitching advantage as it stands right now and they already won Friday’s opener in this series. Arizona went up 6-3 on Toronto with Michael Soroka throwing seven excellent innings, but Friday’s game exposed how terrible the Blue Jays are right now as they drop to 7-12 on the year and have now lost 11 of their last 14 contests. Meanwhile, Arizona keeps rolling with momentum and holds the clear advantage in team form heading into Game 2.

That trend continues when we look at the starting pitchers for Saturday. Zac Gallen will start for Arizona and he’ll be opposed by Max Scherzer of the Toronto Blue Jays. Gallen comes into Saturday having posted a 3.60 ERA on the season. Scherzer has had an atrocious start to 2023 and owns a 1-2 record with a 9.58 ERA through his first five starts. 

Arizona’s lineup also has you wanting to trust it right now. Nolan Arenado hit his third homer in his last four games on Friday and Ildemaro Vargas has now reached safely in 13 straight games to start the season. Ketel Marte added two hits and two RBI Friday night, so Arizona isn’t just rolling with one hitter right now. They have several guys hitting well and putting together great at-bats. That will matter against a struggling Scherzer who has been getting knocked around early in games this season.

Toronto will also be entering Saturday without 100% health. Daulton Varsho left Friday’s game due to knee discomfort and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stayed in Friday’s game after jamming a finger. He was able to finish the game, but the Blue Jays are far from healthy and entering Saturday at full strength. Throw in the fact Arizona is at home and Arizona just seems like the safer play right now.

Arizona is simply playing better baseball right now, Gallen is the more trustworthy starter as of today and Arizona proved on Friday they can win this series. If Gallen can keep Toronto in check for six or seven innings, Arizona has every opportunity to take another win against the Blue Jays here.

Jim's Play: 978. Diamondbacks 

Detroit has earned the right to win this game on Saturday thanks to a clear advantage on the hill. Tarik Skubal will take the mound for Detroit and he sports a 2-2 with a 2.22 ERA and 23 strikeouts in MLB’s page, while Boston will respond with Brayan Bello at 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA. 

Detroit also gets a nice bounce-back narrative working in their corner after losing a 1-0 extra-inning game at Fenway on Friday. Detroit received a quality start from Casey Mize on Friday and just four hits were recorded by both teams combined, so this was not like a game where Detroit was clearly outmatched. When games are low-scoring like that, handing the ball to Skubal the following game creates a very favorable scenario for Detroit to reverse Friday’s result.

Lastly, Detroit just has a better profile as a team away from home. Detroit was shown as 10-10 overall but 8-1 away from home, while Boston came in at 8-11 overall. That implies Detroit has been far more consistent when playing away from its home park than Boston has been in general. Detroit becomes easier to like in a road game if Skubal can provide his typical quality innings.

Detroit gets the better starter, they’re coming off an upsetting one-run loss, and they’ve played far better away from home than you would think based on their record. If Skubal is able to keep Boston off the board early, Detroit is in a great spot to win this game on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 965. Tigers 

The Cubs are entering Saturday with all the momentum and the Mets dealing with yet another losing streak. New York fell 12-4 on Friday to drop to nine straight losses and  they’ve been outscored 56-16 during that time. Chicago also has a ton of momentum as they’ve scored 10 or more runs in three straight games, their longest streak since 2019.

Team form also heavily favors Chicago as they’re marked 10-9 by while the Mets are 7-13. Chicago also has one of the highest team OBP in the majors at .346 which matters versus New York because the Cubs have been stringing together runners while the Mets have struggled to produce offensively during their skid.

Pitching is almost irrelevant here because the Cubs matchup against Mets starter Freddy Peralta anyway. Jameson Taillon gets the start for Chicago and has worse surface stats at 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA. 

It all comes back to Chicago’s lineup being in a much better spot right now. Friday’s victory was another big offensive showing for the Cubs, highlighted by Moises Ballesteros’ three-run homer, Nico Hoerner going 3-for-5 to boost his average to .342, and Ian Happ hitting his fifth homer of the season. When one team is playing this well and the other is going through a nine-game slide, the momentum generally points to the team who is hotter.

Combine everything and you get an easy conclusion: The Cubs are at home, their offense is on fire, the Mets can’t buy a win right now, and even the pitching matchup data tilts towards Chicago. For all those reasons, the Cubs are a fair play to back on Saturday against the Mets.

Jim's Play: 952. Cubs 

Arizona also just looks like the better side Friday. The Diamondbacks come into this series hot and have the favorable pitching matchup. Arizona will start Mike Soroka on Friday while Toronto plans to counter with Eric Lauer. Arizona comes into this series after winning three series in a row on its recent road trip, which included taking two of three in Baltimore. Winning on the road is always impressive, but taking the series in Baltimore feels like a really good sign that this club is riding real momentum into this series.

There’s also something to fade about Toronto here. The Jays are injury depleted, this roster has been to start the year and how uneven Toronto’s play has been through the first two series. Between George Springer being out and the laundry list of other guys missing time, the Blue Jays just have not had full health to start the year. Even when you have Toronto’s best guys available, early-season inconsistencies often manifest in other ways like weak spots in the lineup and bullpen fatigue later in games.

Arizona has a pretty easy sell here. They’re at home. They’re coming in riding a wave after winning three series in a row on their recent road trip. And they don’t have to face an ace caliber arm in this series opener. If Soroka can give Arizona five solid innings, and the Diamondbacks hitters show the same intensity they did in Baltimore, Arizona has a great chance to win this game on Friday.

Jim's Play: 930. Diamondbacks 

The Pirates have several arguments on their side to win Friday. They host this game at PNC Park and roll out one of their better young starters in Bubba Chandler against a Rays team that’s still playing a live home dog despite their hot streak. Pittsburgh at 11-8 and Tampa Bay at 11-7, while Chandler gets set to duel Nick Martinez. Chandler doesn’t have sparkling surface stats at 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA, but he has also punched out 14 in 14 innings. That’s exactly the kind of swing-and-miss stuff you live for if his command improves.

On top of that, there’s a juicy spot angle for Pittsburgh. The Pirates lost 8-7 in extra innings to Washington on Thursday, but they were playing great baseball heading into that game. That included a 16-5 thrashing earlier this week where the Pirates’ lineup attacked behind Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz. It matters because this offense has already proven it can produce crooked numbers, and often times a one-run extra-inning defeat leads to the Pirates coming home hungry the following night.

Throw in the fact that this isn’t a laughably one-sided matchup on the mound either and you have yourself something interesting. Martinez has pitched well at 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, but he’s also not the kind of ace that makes the Pirates absolutely helpless. Pittsburgh has bats in the lineup that can change the game with one or two swings, and ESPN’s game page already has Brandon Lowe at 7 home runs and 16 RBI. This gives the Pirates a middle-of-the-order bat that could do serious damage if Martinez leaves something in the seats.

Look, it’s pretty simple for Pittsburgh to win this game: Chandler misses bats early on, the Pirates feed off the home crowd in a series opener, and their lineup does enough against a contact-heavy Tampa Bay starter to take the lead. Tampa Bay’s five-game win streak is impressive, but with the game in Pittsburgh and Chandler on the mound with legitimate strikeout potential, backing the Pirates here is very reasonable Friday.

Jim's Play: 922. Pirates 

I am looking at Cleveland to win Thursday because the Guardians have a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland leans on Parker Messick who will take the mound at 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Baltimore sends Shane Baz to the mound who is currently 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Then there’s the home field advantage. Thursday’s game takes place at Progressive Field where Cleveland has played well so far this season. Baltimore arrives in Cleveland just hours after an 8-5 extra-innings loss to Arizona that highlighted some persistent problems in the Orioles’ defense. Camden Chat wrote about Wednesday’s Orioles loss and highlighted the shaky outfield defense Baltimore has along with some instability in their roster construction. Baltimore doesn’t exactly have the resume of a team you want to roll into a road series opener against a Cleveland team that will likely pressure them with quality at-bats and strong pitching.

Of course Cleveland could just look to get back on track after losing two in a row in St. Louis. Reuters pointed out Cleveland hadn’t lost consecutive games before their recent two-game skid which bodes well for their ability to bounce back. Cleveland did show off what their offense is capable of earlier this week when they beat the Cardinals 9-3 behind multiple hitters going deep. José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Brayan Rocchio, and Angel Martinez were all a part of that offensive outburst. Baltimore’s starter has allowed 20 hits through 16 innings this season so Cleveland has every opportunity to manufacture more traffic than Baltimore can deal with.

The Guardians’ best case scenario probably isn’t complicated at all. Messick continues to dominate like he has all season, Cleveland takes an early lead at home, and Baltimore’s below-average pitching and defense rears its head again. Cleveland has the better starter, home field advantage, and a visiting Orioles team that just got blown up on Wednesday night.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians (Game of the Week)

At first glance, I think the Rays have a strong case to hit the board Tuesday as they seemingly have the pitching advantage while playing the cleaner game overall. Tampa Bay will roll with Shane McClanahan while Chicago will counter with Noah Schultz, who is making his MLB debut on Tuesday. McClanahan has not been overpowering on the surface as he is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA, but he has allowed just 3 hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 9 hitters. Those are solid ratios that indicate his stuff has played even if the results haven’t always been there for him yet. Schultz is a highly ranked prospect, but making your debut against veterans is never easy, especially with all the things that can go wrong due to nerves, pitch count, and lack of command early in the game.

Speaking of confidence, Tampa Bay also has the team-form edge over Chicago. The Rays come into this game at 8-7 while the White Sox sit at 6-10 and Chicago is coming into this game by giving Tampa Bay home losing streak. Tampa Bay also just took care of business against the Yankees this weekend, winning the series in 3 including a 5-4 decision Sunday. While Chicago might not be New York, Tampa Bay still looked better than the Sox did heading into this matchup.

Chicago has some upside since Schultz has performed well in Triple-A, but I just don’t trust betting on a pitcher’s first MLB start especially against a Rays team that typically makes starters work. Tampa Bay will just need McClanahan to deliver a quality start and force the White Sox to go with their rookie on the mound for his first MLB outing. With a more proven starter, better record, and recent-play that favors Tampa Bay, I like the Rays as the more trustworthy side on Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 965. Rays 

San Francisco can win Tuesday because it has the clear starting pitching advantage. The Giants are bringing Robbie Ray to the hill and the Reds will counter with Brady Singer. Ray boasts a 2-1 record and metrics of 2.08/0.98. Singer? He’s at 0-1 with an ERA of 7.71 and WHIP of 2.06. That alone is enough of a reason to trust San Francisco.  Ray limited the Phillies to 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his most recent outing.

San Francisco has sputtered at the plate at times this season, but Singer could have a tough time keeping them in check for long stretches. He’s allowed 21 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings and, per Field Level Media, Singer owns a 7.16 ERA in three career starts versus the Giants. A mediocre starter who cannot match up against a team that only needs to eat up a few innings from its own starter is often vulnerable.

Ray gives San Francisco the biggest reason to like their odds here. Ray tossed six-plus scoreless innings with seven strikeouts during his April 8 start against Philadelphia. That type of dominance can carry over when pitching at Great American Ball Park. If Ray holds Cincinnati down through the middle innings, Giants do not necessarily need much offense to win this one.

San Francisco is just 6-10 before the opener and their offense has not played great baseball so far this season, so there is some risk involved. The good news is their matchup leans in their favor. The Giants get the better starter, a pitcher who has been hammered throughout his brief stint in Cincinnati, and they face the Reds while their bats have looked like they could struggle might score runs. Taken altogether, San Francisco has a favorable profile to grab a road win Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 955. Giants 

Miami can absolutely spring the upset on Sunday because this is not some lopsided pitching mismatch. In fact, the Marlins are sending Sandy Alcantara, and he has been outstanding to open the season at 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts. Detroit counters with Tarik Skubal, who is still a top arm, but he comes in at 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. When an underdog has the more dominant early-season stat line on the mound, that is the first sign the upset is very realistic.

The Marlins also come into this game with the better overall record. Miami is 8-7, while Detroit is 6-9, and the Marlins are hitting .252 as a team, which ranks fourth in the National League. Detroit has won the first two games of the series, including Saturday’s 6-1 result, but that can actually create a strong bounce-back spot for Miami in the finale, especially with its ace on the mound trying to avoid the sweep.

Another reason the upset path is there is the type of game this sets up to be. The total is only 6.5 runs, which tells you oddsmakers expect a tight, low-scoring matchup. Low-total games naturally give underdogs more value because one timely hit, one mistake, or one shutdown outing from the starter can flip the whole result. If Alcantara keeps doing what he has done through his first three starts, Miami does not need a huge offensive day to steal this game.

The best case for Miami is pretty straightforward: Alcantara matches or outduels Skubal for six or seven innings, the Marlins scratch out a couple of runs against a Tigers club that is still only 6-9 overall, and the pressure shifts to Detroit late. 

Jim's Play:  969. Marlins 

You have to like the Cubs chances on Saturday. For one, they have a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup and are coming back from a losing effort at Wrigley Field. Chicago will start Edward Cabrera (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 9 strikeouts), while Pittsburgh will counter with Braxton Ashcraft (1-1, 2.25 ERA). While Ashcraft hasn’t been terrible through his first two outings, Cabrera has been on fire and should give Chicago the best chance to pound the strike zone early, and dictate the pace of the game for the first few innings.

Chicago also benefits from game theory considerations here. The Cubs offense has come alive over their last couple games, topping Tampa Bay 9-2 on April 8 and 6-2 on April 9. Standouts in the series included bats like Nico Hoerner, Michael Conforto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Moises Ballesteros. Pittsburgh has played well of late, but Chicago’s offense profiles as one that could take advantage of a young starter should they get runners in scoring position early.

Home field also provides the Cubs an advantage. Saturday’s matchup takes place at Wrigley Field and Chicago can take comfort in having their last at-bats and being in a friendly atmosphere. This is the type of game where if Cabrera delivers a quality start, the Cubs can capitalize and win the game. 

If Cabrera pitches well and Chicago’s offense continues to build off of what it did against Tampa Bay, there’s good reason to expect the Cubs to do enough late at home to secure a win. That makes Chicago an easy team to trust on Saturday against Pittsburgh.

Jim's Play: 904. Cubs

Tampa Bay will send Steven Matz to the mound against Luis Gil and the Yankees. Matz is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 10 strikeouts over his first 11 major league innings of the season, while Gil is making his first start of the year. Tampa Bay clearly has the advantage both in terms of momentum and recent workload from its starter at home.

Plus, here’s another factor fueling  Tampa Bay: The Yankees are scuffling offensively. New York wants to snap out of its slump at the plate, while the recap of Thursday’s 1-0 loss to Oakland states:

The Yankees have managed just two hits over their last 17 innings and have gone overdue since the first inning of Wednesday’s 3-2 loss.

Keep in mind the Rays also just got back from a road series in Chicago. New York just lost a home series against Oakland, so Tampa Bay can grab some positive momentum by returning home and opening this set before a friendly crowd. Tampa Bay got shortstop Taylor Walls off the IL earlier this week. That not only improves the Rays defense, but adds another glove to the depleted depth chart.

Tampa Bay gets the game at home, Matz should be stretched out enough to eat some innings early and the Yankees can’t hit the ball right now. If Matz can give the Rays five or six strong innings, Tampa Bay has a good chance to control this game from start to finish.

Jim's Play: 962. Rays

Cleveland has a strong case to win Wednesday because the Guardians are back home, they already grabbed a 2-1 win in Tuesday’s game, and they have been better overall through the first two weeks of the season. Entering this matchup, Cleveland is 7-5 and sitting first in the AL Central, while Kansas City is 5-6. The series is tied 1-1, so the Guardians also have the edge of playing a rubber game at Progressive Field, where they are 3-2 so far.

The matchup on the mound is tougher than the line suggests, but there is still a good angle for Cleveland. Joey Cantillo gets the ball for the Guardians with a 3.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 9 innings, he threw eight scoreless innings against Kansas City in his most recent start versus the Royals last September. Cole Ragans is a quality arm for Kansas City, but the Guardians have at least shown they can compete in lower-scoring games against this Royals lineup, holding Kansas City to just one hit on Tuesday while Cleveland pitchers piled up 14 strikeouts.

Another reason to like Cleveland is its pitching profile and ability to win tight games. The Guardians carrying a 3.31 team ERA and a .201 opponent batting average, both clearly better than Kansas City’s 4.10 ERA and .237 opponent average. Cleveland has not hit for a high average early, but its staff has kept games under control, and that becomes especially important in a matchup expected to be close. If Cantillo gives them a solid five or six innings, the Guardians are in position to let their pitching and home field carry them to the win.

Jim's Play: 962. Guardians

Milwaukee is as good a play as any in this spot simply because the Brewers are playing much better baseball than Boston and they proved Monday they could win at Fenway. Milwaukee took the opener of the series 8-6 and improved to 8-2 while Boston dropped to 2-8 and came into Tuesday on a losing streak. That early-season record matters in this spot because Milwaukee has been hitting timely balls all over the place while staying consistent and Boston has yet to piece together many clean games.

Jacob Misiorowski is the biggest reason to like Milwaukee in this spot. He is set to start on Tuesday and is 1-0 on the year with a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. That type of power arm has Milwaukee able to control this game early against a Boston lineup that has failed to show up during their poor start to the season. Boston does have a quality starter in Garrett Crochet who is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 11 innings, so this matchup is not guaranteed to favor Milwaukee, but Misiorowski’s ability to strike hitters out gives the Brewers frontline stuff that can counter Boston’s home-field advantage.

Milwaukee also holds the confidence and momentum battle coming into this game. Christian Yelich went 3-for-5 on Monday, Garrett Mitchell delivered a big blow late, and Milwaukee has gotten production from several bats early in the year. Boston has been playing sloppy baseball during this losing skid and hasn’t looked great defensively or at the plate on many nights. If Misiorowski continues to miss bats as he has in his first two starts and Milwaukee stays hot offensively, the Brewers have a good chance to win again in Boston.

Jim's Play: 923. Brewers

The Rays have three reasons to win this game: They have the pitching advantage, are at home, and are currently winning the series. Tampa Bay is sending Drew Rasmussen to the mound and he enters Tuesday after posting a 1.80 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts across 10 innings to begin the season. Chicago will counter with Javier Assad, who is making his MLB debut. 

Speaking of Rasmussen, he’s the biggest reason to favor Tampa Bay in this spot. The Rays starter has been excellent so far, keeping hitters off balance by limiting traffic on the bases and generating swings and misses. That gives Tampa Bay every opportunity to set the tone early in this game by controlling things from the first inning on. Meanwhile, Assad could face some first-start jitters in his MLB debut, particularly against a Rays team that already saw Cubs pitching on Monday and plated six runs in the opener. Factor in the more experienced starter on the mound for Tampa Bay, and the Rays should have every reason to feel confident going into Tuesday night.

Even from a situational standpoint, Tampa Bay is the better play. The Rays are currently sitting at 5-5 on the season while the Cubs are 4-6 and have lost two in a row. Tampa Bay also just won Game 1, giving them the advantage in head-to-head matchup as well. If Rasmussen can pitch to that early-season form, Tampa Bay will be in position to continue pacing this game and picking up another win against Chicago.

Jim's Play: 922. Rays 

Baltimore looks like the stronger side Tuesday because the pitching matchup leans clearly to the Orioles. Trevor Rogers is scheduled to start for Baltimore and he has opened 2026 at 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 13 innings, while Chicago is set to counter with Shane Smith, who is 0-2 with a 19.29 ERA and 3.21 WHIP in 4.2 innings. 

There is also a modest team form edge for Baltimore in this spot. The Orioles beat the White Sox 2-1 in Monday’s opener, so they already have a 1-0 series lead, and Baltimore’s staff has allowed opponents a .244 average compared with Chicago’s .271. At the plate, the Orioles entered Tuesday hitting .246 as a team with a .321 OBP and .360 slugging percentage, while the White Sox were at .209, .289, and .336 in those categories. Even though both clubs were 4-6, Baltimore’s overall profile coming into the game was steadier, especially with the ball in Rogers’ hands.

The case for the Orioles is pretty straightforward: better starter, better overall offensive numbers, and momentum from taking Game 1. If Rogers gives Baltimore another clean first five innings, the Orioles should be in strong position to control this matchup and finish off a road win.

Jim's Play: 915. Orioles 

My expectation is that Brewers will win on Monday. I like Milwaukee to win straight up because the pitching matchup favors them from the get-go. Brandon Woodruff will toe the rubber against Boston’s Brayan Bello at Fenway. Woodruff held his own in his season debut and is now priced to win at 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP to Bello’s 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA and 2.36 WHIP after being roughed up in his season opener. If you’re playing one-game matchups, pitching edges like that are about as clean a reason to back a team as you’ll find.

The Brewers also enter playing significantly better baseball than Boston. Milwaukee heads into this series at 7-2 while Boston limps in at just 2-7. Milwaukee has won three straight series to open the year and Boston just lost a home series after the Padres fought back to take down the Red Sox 8-6 on Sunday. Boston can bounce back, but this difference in form matters because Milwaukee has not merely been outscoring opponents. The Brewers have been stacking wins and rolling into this series with momentum.

Speaking of stacking wins, I like the way Milwaukee is hitting. Milwaukee came into this series batting third in MLB in OPS (.815) and leads the majors with 20 stolen bases. This isn’t a lineup that merely threatens to swing the bat well; they’ve already done it and can attack teams in more ways than one. Gary Sanchez, Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, and William Contreras have been among many contributors in this Milwaukee offense and they just erupted for 8 runs in Sunday’s victory over Kansas City. Against a Boston starter who was lit up in his first outing, Milwaukee’s offense has a chance to strike early and often.

Boston profiles as shakier on both sides of the ball. Boston’s weaknesses; they rank just 18th in OPS (.669). Boston has gotten great starts from Wilyer Abreu, but the lineup overall has not had the depth or consistency of Milwaukee’s. Boston’s lack of bullpen depth compared to Milwaukee and concerns about injuries in the Boston rotation, both of which matter if Bello cannot go deep into this game.

Woodruff and Milwaukee’s bullpen give Milwaukee another advantage if this game is close late. Milwaukee’s relievers entered play with a 2.75 ERA and Trevor Megill already had three saves under his belt by Sunday. So even if Fenway comes alive and we see a lot of back-and-forth action for the first five or six innings, Milwaukee still feels like the safer bet to finish games.

I like Milwaukee to control this game and leave Fenway with a win.

Jim's Play: 969. Brewers

The Rays have a solid path to win this game because the starting matchup leans their way. Tampa Bay is set to start Steven Matz, while Minnesota is expected to counter with Mick Abel. Abel’s first outing was rough, as he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and 3.60 WHIP, while Matz at least gives Tampa Bay a more stable veteran profile. In a game where both teams have been inconsistent early, that steadier starter matters.

Another reason to like Tampa Bay is that Friday’s 10-4 loss to Minnesota was more about one ugly late collapse than the Rays being overmatched. Tampa Bay actually led 3-0 early, before the game turned on a disastrous seventh inning in which the Twins scored seven runs. That is important because it shows the Rays were competitive for most of the game and were one clean bullpen inning away from being in a much different spot entering Saturday.

The Rays also have enough offense at the top of the order to pressure a vulnerable young starter. Yandy Diaz batting .433 with 8 RBI, and Tampa Bay already jumped on Minnesota pitching early in the series opener. Against a starter who has already allowed plenty of traffic, the Rays do not need a huge breakout to win. They just need to cash in early chances and avoid another late unraveling.

Minnesota has its own concerns coming into this game too. Byron Buxton left Friday’s game after being hit on the forearm, and while X-rays were negative, any lineup uncertainty matters when the two teams are fairly close on paper. The Twins won big Friday, but that result may overstate the gap between the clubs because so much of the margin came in one inning.

The best script for a Rays win is pretty simple: Matz gives them five decent innings, Tampa Bay gets to Abel before Minnesota can settle in, and the bullpen avoids the kind of meltdown that ruined Friday’s game. This feels like a spot where the Rays can bounce back with a win. 

Jim's Play: 963. Rays 

The Mets should be able to win this game despite the location. This simply isn’t as lopsided a matchup as it may seem at first glance. New York opened around -126 road favorites, with David Peterson on the bump against Robbie Ray. Those numbers show you that this isn’t some massive uphill battle for New York. This is a very much winnable game if they execute late.

One reason to feel confident in New York is that Peterson should be able to keep them in the game. Through 5.1 innings to open the year, Peterson has a 0.00 ERA while Ray has been solid but far from dominant at 3.38 ERA through the same number of innings. Couple that with the fact that San Francisco has gotten off to a 0-3 start at home and the Giants have yet to make Oracle Park feel like home in any sense. If Peterson can give the Mets five innings without any disaster and keep the Giants from jumping out to an early lead, New York should be able to control the game from there.

Expanding to both teams’ pitching profiles, New York also holds a slight edge there. Entering game six, the Mets posted a 2.50 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, both of which were better than San Francisco’s collective 3.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Sure, New York has sputtered offensively the last two games in St. Louis, but they’ve still put up 23 runs on the year to San Francisco’s 14, and Juan Soto has been one of the better bats in this matchup hitting .346 with 5 RBI. With a combined score expected to be around 7.5 runs, any advantage you can find matters in a game this low-scoring, and the Mets just have a better early picture on the mound and in their batting order.

If Peterson can keep it close through his start and Soto or another Mets’ batsman connects on his big opportunity, New York should win a tight game and let their vastly superior early-season pitching guide them on the rest of their way. The Giants can win this game – Ray does have plus stuff that can miss bats – but they feel like the underdogs in this spot. 

Jims Play: 953. Mets 

Minnesota has one of the most legitimate underdog avenues on Thursday because there’s not quite as big of a pitching disparity as the moneyline makes it seem. We’re likely looking at Taj Bradley for the Twins against Cole Ragans for Kansas City, and while Ragans is the more established name in this game, he comes into his start with a 9.00 ERA after his season debut while Bradley sports a 2.08 ERA entering his first MLB start. Royals are still sitting at favorites hovering around -155 to -158 which means there’s a lot of Kansas City’s home field and overall game strength baked into their price, but the mound matchup alone gives Minnesota a better chance than what you’re being offered.

Minnesota’s easiest path to pulling the upset starts with Bradley limiting the damage and forcing Kansas City to score one inning at a time. They do not need Bradley to be overpowering, merely to keep pace with Ragans for 5-6 innings to keep this game from turning into another Royals blowout. That’s important because Kansas City was able to bust out for 13 runs on Wednesday, but that output was also a massive outlier against their more tame results to open the series, including holding Oakland to 1 run on Monday for a 3-1 win. Minnesota has the capability to keep this game low-scoring as well, and if Kansas City cools off even just a little bit the game becomes a lot more playable for the dog.

Speaking of cooling off, another angle that works here is the bounce-back opportunity for Minnesota. They’re just 1-4 on the year, but the Twins flashed their ability earlier this week that they still have enough pitching and clutch hitting to win these low-scoring affairs, and they do have some dangerous bats in their lineup that can capitalize if Ragans struggles again. Kansas City may be riding a three-game win streak and has owned Minnesota at home, but trends like that can exaggerate how good a team really is, especially when that favorite is trotting out a starter who needs to bounce back from an ERA-366 start.

We’ve covered how Minnesota can win the game, so let’s talk about the Twins actually winning. The ideal underdog script is pretty simple: Bradley gives Minnesota a solid start, they knock a couple of runs off Ragans early, and slowly work this into a low-scoring game where one late rally or one explosive inning ends up being the difference maker. Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt at home, but with Bradley matching up against Ragans and the price still sitting in that mid-150s range I think Minnesota is live enough to pull off the upset.

Jim's Play: 955. Twins +1.35 

Let’s start with Boston’s chances coming from behind. Boston will need a solid first five innings from Brayan Bello. He is Boston’s likely starter against Hunter Brown on Thursday. Brown has more raw stuff, but Bello owns Houston to an extent, posting a 1-1 record with a 2.19 ERA in three career appearances against Houston. Bello induces ground balls, and if he limits Houston’s traffic early, Boston can keep this game low-scoring enough where their underdog status will feel alive late.

Boston can also win because they have enough offense to swing a game with one or two hits. Take Wilyer Abreu. He’s been hot for Boston early this season, carrying a .500 batting average with two homers and five RBIs. Beyond Abreu, I’ve read analysis on Houston-Boston rumors pointing to him specifically as a Houston weapon. Why does that matter for an underdog? Boston can’t necessarily win with five flawless innings at the plate, but if they stay within striking distance, one bad pitch from Brown or the Houston bullpen could swing this game in Boston’s favor.

The easiest way to draw up a Boston win is to force this game into a battle of execution over star power. Houston looked like a championship-caliber team Monday night beating Boston 8-1, but that game rode on a career night from Jose Altuve and a stellar opening performance from Lance McCullers Jr. Boston doesn’t have to win by putting up 8 runs of their own. If Boston can keep this game close, force Houston to win one inning at a time, and beat the Astros without another big night from the top of their order, they’ll have a real chance to steal one early in the series.

To win, the Red Sox need efficient pitching from Bello, a big hit from someone like Abreu, and a low-scoring game. Houston is the better team and deserves the home-field advantage on the odds board. But if Boston gets league-average to better starting pitching and a big hit or two, they can absolutely beat Houston here on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 961. Red Sox 

Oakland has a legit sleeper tilt on Tuesday with the pitching mismatch being better than the records of these teams suggest. Oakland is sending Aaron Civale to the mound while Atlanta counters with Jose Suarez at Truist Park. Civale is a quality strike-thrower that can keep a lineup off balance when he is locating his pitches, while Suarez does not have established frontline arm that simply turns off an offense for six or seven innings. 

Oakland’s best selling point starts with Atlanta’s offense itself, which hasn’t been lighting it up thus far in 2021. Atlanta was averaging just 4.25 runs per game through four games and keep in mind the Braves first four totals have all stayed under. This is important because if Civale can simply avoid disaster over five or six innings Oakland may not need a huge night with the bats to stay in this game and pull off an upset late.

Oakland also gets a bit of an edge with their lineup vs. left-handed starter Jose Suarez. Brent Rooker is currently Oakland’s biggest threat to provide any power and we already flagged him early as having a nice matchup on Tuesday against Suarez. When constructing an upset pick for a road dog one or two middle of the order bombs can be enough to swing these things, especially against a back-end type pitcher that doesn’t have overpowering stuff.

The final reason Oakland can win here is just simple regression and motivation. Oakland came into this game 0-4 but one-run games and competitive losses early in a season can change FAST. Oakland lost Monday’s opener by four runs so there is already a sense of urgency and something to play for here. Atlanta on the other hand is 3-1, but early season wins can sometimes get you overvalued if your opponent hasn’t quite found their footing yet.

I feel like if Oakland is going to win this game it goes a little something like this: Civale pitches efficiently, Oakland scratches out a couple runs off of Suarez and their bullpen navigates the rest of the game against Atlanta’s bats, which stay quiet enough in a game that stays low-scoring overall. Atlanta is the deserved favorite here, but Oakland is far from doomed. Atlanta isn’t throwing a true ace, their offense has been controlled early on and the odds say Oakland just needs a clean, opportunistic game to win as a dog. 

Jim's Play: 969. Athletics 

The mound matchup tips Pittsburgh’s way on Thursday. Paul Skenes is slated to toe the rubber for Pittsburgh’s Opening Day, while Mets manager Brian Straw will counter with Freddy Peralta at Citi Field. If you know Skenes, you know he’s the reigning NL Cy Young winner fresh off a 2025 campaign that saw him finish with a 1.97 ERA, 216 strikeouts, and a sparkling 0.95 WHIP. MLB even wrote about this particular pitching matchup when previewing MLB’s Opening Day; they referred to this game as featuring one of the biggest pitchers on displays.

This Skenes kid also has a chance to overpower any lineup in one game. Don’t get me wrong, the Mets’ projected starting lineup has some nice names: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr., Bo Bichette, Mark Vientos. However, there is still some question around that lineup on Opening Day with New York starting a rookie (Carson Benge) out in their outfield after an impressive spring training. If we’re talking about one game, I’ll take the guy atop the rotation with the highest swing-and-miss stuff over a lineup feeling itself out on the first day of the season any day of the week.

If you just want the raw betting number to ride with, it’s that Pittsburgh does not need Pittsburgh’s offense to go off on Thursday. They just need Paul Skenes to pitch like Paul Skenes and carry the rock for six-plus innings before a couple timely runs win the game. Against a Mets team that is not Opening Day with Gerrit Cole-caliber fantasy production behind its starter and could still see some last-minute shakeups to its roster, Pittsburgh is going to pick one to steal Thursday’s opener behind the game’s best pitcher.

Jim's Play: 901. Pirates (Skenes)

The biggest reason to like San Francisco involves starter Webb, simply being the better fit for this ballpark and this situation. Oracle Park favors pitchers who induce ground balls and suppress hard contact. Webb is a ground-ball pitcher through and through. Webb entered this season fresh off another excellent showing with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and San Francisco will again be using him as the opener. He’s trusted to set the tone for this staff, which matters more than season-long metrics in a one-game spot.

San Francisco also has a lineup angle working in their favor. The Giants’ projected order now includes Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos. That group has more depth and more contact potential than the Giants have typically possessed in recent seasons. That matters against Fried specifically, because the best way to attack a quality left-handed starter involves forcing long at-bats, putting runners on base and minimizing the homer-or-bust approach. The Giants should have more avenues to attack Fried than other recent Giants teams.

Speaking of Devers, he’s also a potential swing factor here. The Giants note how Devers has 31 career homers against the Yankees, which is the most among active players. Devers has accumulated that damage with Boston, but not having to switch organizations to hit Yankees pitching matters. He also had 10 homers in 2022 against New York, so there’s recent production as well. If you’re leaning Giants here, Devers is the reason why.

Lastly, this isn’t really an aces-at-opposite-ends situation. Fried is still excellent, of course. But he is sliding into the Opening Day No. 1 slot because Gerrit Cole is unavailable, and the Yankees are Opening on the road against a quality starter rather than rolling out their traditional ace hierarchy. Fried still projects as above-average in this spot, but the Giants are closer to his level than a Giants fan would expect if Luis Gonzalez were starting.

With the Giants a small home dog, this is too much to pass on here tonight. I'll take Webb and the Giants against the Yankees. 

Jim's Play: 988. Giants (Webb)

Toronto is at home for Game 6 at Rogers Centre with a 3-2 lead in the series and just one win away from a World Series championship. The Blue Jays turned in a commanding performance in Game 5 to take a decisive 3-2 series lead and position themselves as the favorites to close out the Dodgers on their home field. Conversely, Los Angeles is a defending champion seeking a back-to-back title and is now fighting for their playoff lives with the luxury of facing elimination only once. A classic win-or-go-home playoff night is upon us.

For the Dodgers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the mound. The veteran starter has been elite this postseason and has already produced a complete-game gem in Game 2. Yamamoto’s performance will ultimately determine the Dodgers’ chances at extending this series: if he’s on, they have the best shot yet to win a Game 7. Toronto’s probable starter is Kevin Gausman, a dependable veteran with a strong track record that they need to tame a dangerous Dodgers lineup in order to close out. Both starters project to be at or near their peak, so the start should be a close one with selective offense on each team’s behalf rather than a more free-wheeling slugfest.

Even though the Dodgers have the big names in their lineup with MVP and Hall of Famers, the Blue Jays have been the better offensive unit overall this World Series.  The question is will Yamamoto silence them like he did in game two?  I believe he can. This guy has ice running through his veins and the Toronto crowd won't faze him.  

Both starters should go deep into this game - especially on the Dodgers side. They know they have a starter that can go the distance and won't hesitate to utilize him in that roll. 

As for game 6 side winner. I can't go against Yamamoto.  He has the stuff and the experience to shut down this big hitting Blue Jays squad. I think we are looking at a game 7. 

Jim's Play: 931. Dodgers 

Blue Jays and Dodgers Offenses Both Riding High While Pitching Depth Is Worn Thin After 18-Inning Game 3. Dodgers-Blue Jays Game 4 of the 2025 World Series is set to top the total of 8.5 on Tuesday night in Los Angeles as both offenses hit cruise control while the depth of both pitching staffs are stretched to the limit after the 18-inning Game 3.   The teams battled through one of the longest, most exciting games in World Series history on Monday, with L.A. edging Toronto in the extra innings to take a 2-1 series lead, 6-5 behind Freddie Freeman's home run to dead center field for the walk off.   Dodgers’ offense is likely to be a problem for Toronto all series, as Los Angeles is led by MVP Mookie Betts and has Freeman, Ohtani and catcher Will Smith who can all punish a mistake.

Toronto has a loaded core of its own that can match LA punch for punch, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk all able to put paws on a fastball. Kirk hit a three-run homerun in Game 3 and Toronto batted around to rack up 15 total hits.

Shane Bieber will start for Toronto with Ohtani expected on the mound for L.A. Toronto manager Pedro Grifol said after the game that he thinks Bieber has the “stuff” to be successful and Ohtani has dominated all season but he is not a starting pitcher by trade.  Both teams used all of their relief pitchers in game 3 with starters warming up if the game where to continue.    Toronto starter Shane Bieber has been in rough waters against the best lineups in the majors and Ohtani will be throwing on limited rest and with a Dodgers bullpen that threw 200-plus pitches less than 24 hours prior to Game 4.  Ohtani was on base a record 9 times in game three including a record-setting FOUR extra base hits. At one point he cramped up while running the bases.  Cramps have been an issue for Ohtani on the mound before and with very little rest I have to wonder how long he can go tonight.  

Toronto and Los Angeles are both playing with house money but have also have gone to war in their previous three games. Los Angeles has won two of three but both teams have exceeded the run total in two of the first three games combined.

Toronto can win this game against the tough Dodgers if their bats are hot. Toronto’s bats are capable of cooking at any time and that will test a Dodgers bullpen that was on the mound for nearly 50 innings over three days.

I'm counting on Ohtani not making it long and turning the ball over to a pen that was used to the max last night.  Price just too high on the Dodgers here on game four with the Jays being a nice live dog in this.  

As for the total, again with pens depleted and no rest, this could be another slug fest.  I'll be on the OVER once again as I was last night. 

Jim's Play: 927. Blue Jays

Game 5 of the American League Championship Series with the series even at two games apiece between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Both clubs have shown flashes of dominance in this tightly contested series, and Friday’s game could swing the momentum for good. Toronto will turn to veteran ace Kevin Gausman, while Seattle counters with young right-hander Bryce Miller. It’s a compelling pitching matchup featuring Gausman’s refined command and devastating splitter against Miller’s high-velocity fastball and aggressive approach.

Gausman has been excellent this postseason, posting a 2.76 ERA with 22 strikeouts in just under 20 innings.  His ability to get ahead in the count and neutralize right-handed power makes him a strong fit against a Mariners lineup led by Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh. Miller has been impressive for Seattle, showing maturity beyond his years with a 3.48 ERA and a .220 opponent batting average in two playoff starts. His fastball-slider combination can be overpowering, but facing a patient Toronto lineup that thrives on extending at-bats could challenge his efficiency.

The Blue Jays’ offense once again revolves around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who have combined for 15 RBIs in the postseason. Daulton Varsho continues to provide clutch hitting and defensive spark, while George Springer’s veteran presence remains invaluable at the top of the lineup. For Seattle, Rodríguez has been the driving force, hitting .318 in the playoffs with three homers. Ty France and Raleigh have added timely extra-base hits, and the Mariners’ bullpen, anchored by Andrés Munoz and Matt Brash, remains one of baseball’s best - though fatigue could become a factor after four high-leverage games.

Friday’s game should come down to which starter settles in first. Seattle really in a must win spot here as they cannot afford to go back to Toronto down 2-3 in this series and losing all three at home. I see them salvaging at least one game on their home field.  

Jim's Play: 964. Mariners 

Even though the the Mariners come into this game 3 having a 2-1 series lead, they may feel urgency here tonight.  They lost Game 3 in a rout, giving up five home runs, and they’ll be motivated to respond at home. Toronto’s offense showed it’s dangerous in big bursts, so the Mariners can’t afford to be passive. Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor remain threats - they’ll need to get “on” early and force the Jays’ pitchers to work deep into their counts.

On the mound, Seattle is expected to send out Luis Castillo, a reliable arm in big spots. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who brings experience and a track record of stepping up in October. But if Castillo allows a couple of base runners or Scherzer has command issues, we could see a quick trip to the bullpen for both sides. And in playoff games, that often loosens things up - more matchups, more chances for runs.

Defensively and bullpen-wise, neither side is flawless. Seattle’s relievers have shown they can be beat, especially under pressure. The Jays’ bullpen isn’t infallible either. If one inning opens up, this game has the potential to snowball into a high-scoring affair. Given the stakes - both teams needing to swing - I expect both clubs will push hard offensively and not sit back.

I'll take the Mariners and the OVER tonight. 

Jim's Play: 956. Mariners 

The Dodgers took Game 1 on Monday behind a balanced effort from their offense and steady pitching, but Milwaukee is well-positioned to respond. The Brewers will turn to right-hander Freddy Peralta, who finished the regular season with a 16-7 record, a 3.12 ERA, and 226 strikeouts across 181 innings. Peralta’s ability to command both sides of the plate and generate swings-and-misses with his high-spin fastball makes him a tough matchup, especially against a Dodgers lineup that thrives on fastballs over the heart of the plate.

Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who went 13-8 with a 2.49 ERA. The Japanese ace has been dominant when his splitter and curveball are working, but the Brewers’ patient approach could push his pitch count early. Milwaukee’s offense, led by Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and rookie standout Jackson Chourio, will look to capitalize on any control lapses and create traffic on the bases.

The Dodgers’ bats - powered by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman - have been relentless all postseason, but Peralta’s high strikeout ability gives Milwaukee a legitimate chance to neutralize the top of the order. If Peralta can get six strong innings and hand the ball to a rested bullpen anchored by Joel Payamps and Devin Williams, the Brewers are in good position to grind out a win.

Expect a tightly played, low-scoring affair early before Milwaukee’s offense breaks through in the middle innings.

Jim's Play: 952. Brewers 

Seattle was the sharper team in Game 1, Bryce Miller was able to keep the Jays at bay for six innings (on short rest), and a Cal Raleigh homer combined with a clutch Jorge Polanco RBI were the difference-makers. But Toronto isn’t the type of team that’s going to fold after one defeat in the postseason, they have the depth, the firepower, and the sense of urgency to respond now that the series is in their building.

Tonight, the Jays’ counter to Seattle: rookie Trey Yesavage. He’s fresh off of a dominant outing in the previous round, in which he did not allow a hit. There’s some risk in going with a rookie in this spot, but the upside is high, and the fact that Toronto’s comfortable putting him on the mound suggests his stuff checks out. The Jays’ lineup (Springer, Guerrero Jr., Varsho, etc) can rattle any pitcher who has a wobble, and I think they’ll force Seattle’s bullpen to burn bullets early. Toronto’s bullpen isn’t without its flaws, but this group has had their backs on the wall before in this postseason and has been up to the task.

Seattle, on the other hand, will go with Logan Gilbert. He’s a safe choice, but Toronto’s hitters can’t wait for the Mariners’ best this time of year, especially early in the game. Seattle’s bullpen is stretched, coming off a long ALDS and a strong performance in Game 1. I think the Jays can take advantage as the game goes on.

Toronto’s the side I like to take this one. Yesavage gives up his share, Seattle’s arms bend in this game of attrition, and Toronto’s offense makes key contact. Give them a hard-fought win to even the series.

Jim's Play: 944. Blue Jays 

It's game 5 of the ALDS as the Tigers and Mariners play for the right to move on the the ALCS.  Detroit will send left-hander Tarik Skubal to the mound, and he’s been outstanding all season. Skubal finished the regular year with a 13-6 record, a 2.21 ERA, and over 180 strikeouts in 175 innings. He’s been Detroit’s most dependable arm, combining excellent command with swing-and-miss stuff. His ability to keep the ball in the park and limit walks has been key to his success, and he’s shown poise in high-pressure games.

Seattle counters with right-hander George Kirby, who went 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA during the regular season. Kirby is known for his pinpoint control and low walk rate, but when his fastball command drifts, he can be hittable. Against a Tigers lineup that’s starting to find rhythm - with Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter all swinging the bat well - he’ll have little room for error.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, but Detroit’s has been a bit sharper this postseason, led by closer Alex Lange and setup man Jason Foley. The Mariners’ relievers have logged heavy workloads through the first three games, which could be a factor late if this one stays close.

If Skubal gives Detroit six strong innings and the Tigers’ offense can capitalize early on Kirby’s fastball, they’ll be in position to win the series. The Tigers’ momentum, strong starting pitching, and slightly fresher bullpen should make the difference.

Jim's Play:  925. Tigers 

Chicago just got mauled at Milwaukee, dropping both Games 1 and 2. Game 1 was a rough outing from Matthew Boyd that devolved into a 9-3 debacle, while Game 2 saw Shota Imanaga surrendering multiple homers before getting yanked early. (Milwaukee’s offense was both timely and aggressive in this stretch.) Now, the Brewers can wrap things up with a single win on the road at Chicago. 

The Cubs will likely lean on Jameson Taillon for Game 3. He has not been a perfect pitcher, but Taillon has been one of Chicago’s more reliable starters this year, and his control of the game, ability to log innings, and comfort in big spots gives them a puncher’s chance. The Brewers are more likely to roll with Quinn Priester, who posted a 13–3 record with a 3.32 ERA in 2025 and therefore is the sort of pitcher that you absolutely want to take to a playoff game. He has nasty stuff that can rack up strikeouts deep into games.

The Brewers have one glaring question mark, which is what to do at the back end of the rotation now that Brandon Woodruff is done for the series with a lat injury. This both thins the depth of their pitching and could mean even more bullpen shuffling for them, which is one lever Chicago can pull at to make up ground. The Cubs still have an offense with pop and can manufacture mistakes behind Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, and Dansby Swanson. If Taillon can keep Milwaukee to at least some quality innings and Chicago’s bats can work counts, then a path opens.

For those reasons, factoring in the series leverage and the Cubs’ desperation to push things, their home crowd and the deficit in Brewers’ rotation depth now, I see Chicago coming back. Pick: Cubs win Game 3.

Jim's Play: 908. Cubs

The Blue Jays come into this game three of the best of five riding momentum, scoring 23 runs over the first two games of the series and taking a 2-0 lead back to the Bronx.  The Yankees face elimination if they don't win here today.  The pitching will have to improve greatly after those first two contests. 

Toronto will turn to Shane Bieber, who made a welcome return from injury this season. He’s appeared in 7 games with a 4–2 record, a 3.57 ERA, and 37 strikeouts over 40.1 innings. Bieber looks sharp, with a WHIP around 1.02 and decent control, though his long layoff and health will be questions under postseason pressure.

The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who’s been one of their most dependable arms this year. He posted an 18-9 record, with a 3.09 ERA and 203 strikeouts. His command, ability to pitch deep into games, and veteran presence give New York stability on the mound in a must-win spot.

At the plate, both lineups are loaded. Toronto’s offense can swing in bunches, and they have shown they can take advantage if pitching falters. The Yankees’ hitters are battle-tested and won’t hesitate to punish mistakes. If Rodon holds his composure and the Yankees' bullpen locks things down late, New York has the upper hand in this matchup.

Jim's Play: 902. Yankees (ALDS Game of the Year)

The Chicago Cubs look to even teir NLDS best of five series tonight in Milwaukee. The Cubs are down 0-1 after being blown out in game one, 3-9.  The Cubs will send  Shota Imanaga out to the hill for Game 2. He has a 9-8 record with a 3.73 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00 this season. Against the Brewers this year, he’s made three appearances with a 3.57 ERA, striking out 17 batters and walking three in 17.2 innings. 

Milwaukee plans to counter with Aaron Ashby out of the bullpen as an opener. Ashby made it 1.1 inning in Game 1 and allowed no hits and no runs.  Looks like he'll open here on Monday and then hand the ball over to middle relievers like Quinn Priester, assuming he’s a favorable matchup. Milwaukee has the kind of depth across its pitching staff that gives them options to target the bottom half of the Cubs’ lineup, however.

One thing to watch will be how Milwaukee responds to the injury of left fielder Jackson Chourio, who was removed from the game in the second inning after feeling tightness in his hamstring. If he’s unable to play, the Brewers will be forced to call on their internal options for left field. Chourio was 3-for-3 at the plate and drove in multiple runs in the top of the second before leaving the game.

In the batter’s box, the Cubs will look for greater consistency across their lineup. The Brewers jumped on the Cubs’ pitching and exposed their defense in the early innings. They Cubs’ top of the lineup will have to be careful about being overmatched, particularly in high-leverage situations. Milwaukee’s offense, especially the trio of William Contreras, Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, will have to be aggressive all night long and trust bullpen matchups late.

Overall I expect a tight game here in game two. However, with Imanaga a more solid option in this game than a reliever out of the pen for the Brewers, I'll take Chicago here in game two to even the series at 1-1. 

Jim's Play: 945. Cubs 

The Milwaukee Brewers are coming into this series feeling very confident. They finished the season with one of the best records in the game at 97-65, and Freddy Peralta has been named the starting pitcher for Game 1 after an incredible year, with a 17-7 record, 2.70 ERA, and over 200 strikeouts. The Brewers lost their starter Brandon Woodruff for the season with a lat injury, but with a deeper rotation than Chicago and a very reliable bullpen, they have a decided advantage. Milwaukee’s offense has gotten hot at the right time: Christian Yelich has been crushing the ball, and the contributions of young outfielder Jackson Chourio, as well as stalwarts like William Contreras, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick have made this lineup a dangerous one all the way down. Defensively, Milwaukee has also been one of the most reliable teams in baseball, led by their stellar fielding and a shutdown bullpen anchored by Abner Uribe and closer Trevor Megill.

Chicago finished this year’s season at 92-70, which is a really good campaign for them. While their pitching staff has largely been reliable, with both Jameson Taillon and Jordan Wicks capable of quality starts, their pitching has been less consistent against high-end offenses. Chicago’s lineup features power and athleticism in players like Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, which gives them both pop and speed. But Chicago’s offense is also one that has shown a tendency to be streaky, and has been unable to string together runs on the road against some of the top pitchers in the league.

To win this game, all Milwaukee really needs to do is let Peralta go six strong innings, turn the ball over to their well-rested bullpen, and make Chicago’s pitchers work early on with strong base running and disciplined at-bats. Chicago has the players to be able to compete, but Milwaukee has more balance, more pitching depth, and the home-field advantage on their side. Pick: Brewers win Game 1 and jump out to an early lead in the series.

Jim's Play: 938. Brewers -1.36 (Diamond Dominator)

Pitching, bullpen depth and postseason leverage will be on full display in a winner-take-all Wild Card matchup. The Red Sox won the opener in New York when lefty starter Garrett Crochet gave up one hit and zero runs over 7 2/3 innings while striking out 11. The Yankees adjusted their bullpen usage and lineup in Game 2 to beat Boston, which now sets up a winner-take-all Game 3.

The Red Sox are very much in a position to win this game. First of all, Boston has had the better of New York in 2022, they won the season series 9-4 and also went 5-2 in Yankee Stadium. Boston has also constructed a roster with bullpen arms that they can lean on, and have gotten key at-bats from their position players (Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida) when they needed them to be productive.

The Yankees are a good ballclub, though, and have their own advantages. They have a potent lineup and an energy boost from home crowd support. But it’s very difficult to leverage those things in a winner-take-all, sudden-death game if the other team’s pitching and bullpen hold up. I believe the Sox bullpen is the difference makere here in game three. Add in their ability to win at Yankee Stadium and I'll take a very live dog in Boston. 

Jim's Play: 913. Red Sox

Chicago has the home field advantage in the winner-take-all matchup. They went 92-70 during the regular season and split the season series with San Diego, 3-3. Chicago’s second-half rotation has had a better run prevention profile, posting a 3.48 ERA to San Diego’s 4.28, so they have a slight edge on the side where pitching makes a difference. The Cubs also had the home field advantage in this Wild Card matchup.

The Padres will send veteran right-hander Yu Darvish to the mound. Darvish went 12-8 during the regular season with a 3.64 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 184 innings. He still has the ability to miss bats and rise to the occasion, but at 39, his consistency has wavered, especially against patient lineups that can run up his pitch count. On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who turned in one of his steadier campaigns, finishing 11-9 with a 3.81 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 171 innings. Taillon doesn’t dominate with overpowering stuff, but his command and ability to limit damage have been keys to his success.

Chicago should have enough offense to take it either way. Between the homer power and patient approaches, the Cubs showed in Game 1 that they can beat San Diego’s staff even if they have a good day. The Padres also have offense that can come alive in a hurry, with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez all dangerous at the plate. 

The Padres bullpen is deep and has been dominant recently with guys like Mason Miller pitching as good as any reliever in the league, but San Diego has also shown weaknesses in this postseason. If the Cubs can force them to go through a bunch of arms early or at least spot them some runs, they have a great shot to win here.

With both teams being able to swing for the fences with a win-or-go-home situation, I like a bit more offense than Game 2 saw. Chicago has the matchup advantages, crowd and a track record of punching back when they go down early.  I will be ont he Cubs here in this game three. 

Jim's Play: 911. Cubs  (WildCard Game Year)

Cleveland comes into this Wildcard elmination day riding some actual momentum. The Guardians answered their Game 1 loss with a booming Game 2 comeback, one punctuated by a pair of home runs in the 8th inning from Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor. Home runs late in the game like that give Cleveland something to feel good about as they head into a winner take all Game 3. Detroit has been opportunistic at times this series, their starters giving them a chance to win each game, but their lineup has left way too many men stranded at the times they needed a hit most.

Pitching and making adjustments in game will likely win this, a mix of having a big night out of your starter and then relying on a bullpen to close it out. Cleveland’s bullpen is built to handle late-inning high-leverage situations and has been fairly sharp in these spots throughout the postseason so far, and the Guardians hitters aren’t going to burn themselves chasing offspeed early in counts like some Detroit hitters might. Detroit is going to need a near flawless game from their starter and then zeroes from every reliever to have a chance. Give Cleveland’s bullpen one inning to blow up, and it could be lights out.

Fielding and pitching-wise the Guardians do bend a little bit, but rarely break. They’ll take chances when they need to, but they’ll come into this with a need for a lead entering the late innings and those tendencies work well when you need a win. Detroit will feel the heat on every pitch, because every mistake can feel so much bigger in this game with Cleveland’s crowd right behind them. If Cleveland can get a one or two run cushion and their bullpen doesn’t let them down they have the matchups and the momentum to close out the series. My Pick: Guardians win Game 3 and advance. 

Jim's Play: 910. Guardians 

Fresh off a frustrating 2-1 Game 1 loss despite a near no-hit performance from Tarik Skubal, the Cleveland Guardians will be looking for a quick response. Cleveland has the desperation and late-season momentum a short series can hinge on. Detroit is 87-75, Cleveland is 88-74, Cleveland’s late-season surge allowed them to snatch the AL Central lead away from Detroit. They also won the season series 8-5 and five of six in September.

Detroit will turn to Casey Mize, who has battled back this season to give the Tigers solid innings down the stretch. While his raw numbers haven’t always been dominant, Mize has shown the ability to pitch to contact and limit damage when his command is sharp. On the other side, Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee, who has emerged as one of the most reliable young arms in the American League. Bibee mixes a lively fastball with a sharp slider and has been effective at keeping hitters off balance, especially in big spots.

Both pitchers are capable of settling in early, but Cleveland has a clear advantage in bullpen depth. Their relievers have been more consistent and are better equipped to navigate high-leverage innings if Bibee can hand them the game with a lead. The Guardians’ lineup has also been timely against Detroit late in the season, and their patient approach could push Mize into high pitch counts by the middle innings.

With Bibee’s upside on the mound, a superior bullpen, and the confidence that comes from winning the late-season series against Detroit, Cleveland has the pieces in place to bounce back and grab the win in Game 2. My call is the Guardians to win behind Bibee’s steady hand and late offensive execution.

Jim's Play: 902. Guardians -1.30 

Boston is the underdog in this rivalry, but they’ve dominated New York of late. The Red Sox took the regular season series 9-4. Boston’s ace, Garrett Crochet, in particular has rattled Yankee bats, he even tossed a five-hit shutout (one run, one walk, 11 strikeouts) against them in his last start. That means he has the arsenal and the confidence to swing for the fences in Game 1. (He also extended Boston’s winning streak over New York to eight games.)

The Yankees have other plans, though. They counter with Max Fried on the mound. Fried has been solid all year, but against Boston he hasn’t fared as well, especially when the Boston bullpen and offense come to play. Speaking of offense, New York runs through Aaron Judge, who blasted 53 homers and batted a league-best .331. He will be the focal point in every at-bat. Boston will have to counter with Trevor Story, who has given New York fits, with power and consistency in their direct matchups.

Boston’s bullpen is deep and battle-tested, which gives them an advantage to preserve a lead into the late innings. New York’s relievers have a lot more on the line, especially if it’s a close game. In a short, high-leverage contest, it might come down to executing and having the clutch pitching and offense to make the other team make a mistake.

All things considered: Boston has the momentum, head-to-head matchups in their favor, a dominant ace in Crochet, and bullpen depth to back him up. I think Boston wins Game 1 outright in nine innings, no extra innings needed.

Jim's Play: 945. Red Sox

Chicago enters this series on a high note, having gone 92–70 in the regular season for the NL’s best wild card spot. The elements all favor Chicago in this matchup. They have a better run differential, a deeper pitching staff, and built a late-season clubhouse buzz that should not be overlooked. San Diego ended the regular season with a solid, 90–72, record, but come into this series as the underdogs and with a tougher path, playing every game away from home.

The Cubs are heading into this series having split the regular season series with San Diego 3–3. The close head-to-head series between the teams says the two squads know each other well and that execution and matchups will be more of a factor than talent level. The Cubs will have to lean on the depth of their rotation and the flexibility of their bullpen since their ace Cade Horton is out with a rib injury and will miss this series. Chicago will go to Matthew Boyd or Sh?ta Imanaga early and trust their consistency and composure while leaning on the bullpen to go deep.

San Diego will start Nick Pivetta in Game 1 and have a guy with big inning capability when he’s right. The Padres also have offensive promise with their late-season bats and will be looking to force the Cubs into hard bullpen usage early in games.

Chicago, on the other hand, is superior in balance and depth, particularly. They will have to mix and match without their ace Horton, but their relievers have been in the bullpen battles all year. Chicago also will know that in a short series every mistake is amplified. They will likely play more conservatively and work to force the opponent to beat them and stay in games rather than take chances.

Chicago’s ability to absorb pressure and a hungry San Diego squad needing to force the Cubs’ bullpen early, along with a Wrigley home crowd in do-or-die mode, are the reasons I like the Cubs to take this series.

Jim's Play : 944. Cubs -1.22 

Dodgers at Mariners has division winners squaring off in a late-season finale. They come to the game having won their respective division titles last night,  Los Angeles defeated Arizona 8-0 to clinch the NL West and Seattle topped the Rockies 6-2 to wrap up the AL West. The Mariners have also been on fire at home all year, winning 11 of their last 12 overall there. In addition, the M's have won seven straight games and 17 of their last 18 overall. 

Los Angeles has starter Emmet Sheehan (6-3 with a 2.86 ERA) on the bump. He’s been very consistent this year, and the Dodgers can rely on a pitcher who won’t allow a lot of runs on a nightly basis. Seattle has George Kirby (roughly 10-7 with a 4.24 ERA) going. His 4.24 ERA is fine and he’s good at stranding baserunners, but he also surrenders a bit more in runs and overall baserunner rates compared to Sheehan.

Seattle has a team that can win several different ways. Julio Rodríguez has led the way with 173 hits and 95 RBIs this year and Cal Raleigh has been on a career-year home run pace. Add in J.P. Crawford (hits/contact, defense) and other complementary pieces and the Mariners have a very deep lineup. Los Angeles is different. Their team slash of about .253/.328/.405 slugging belies how loaded and dangerous their lineup can be. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts,  et al. are just going to hit, and they can put runs on the scoreboard in a hurry with power and the ability to extend innings.

Seattle’s been a monster in its own building all year. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 at home and they’ve kept up that pace since their division-clinching win against Houston last night. Los Angeles has pitched well lately and is playing with some momentum of their own, but these last few weeks also serve as an opportunity for the Dodgers to “keep pushing” even after clinching. Dodgers' starters have been the best in baseball in September. However, their bullpen has been horrible - blowing save after save.  If the Dodgers hope to make it far in the playoffs they will have to fix this bullpen and in a hurry. 

I'm not going against this red-hot Mariners' teame, especially at home where they have been dominant. Expect to see starters rested here tonight on both sides. Still, Seattle will be tough at home and get my nod here tonight. 

Jim's Play: Mariners 

This game carries enormous weight in the AL Central and postseason race. The Tigers and Guardians currently stand neck and neck for the Division lead, and Cleveland comes in riding serious momentum. Detroit has stumbled late, losing 10 of their last 11 games, while Cleveland has surged, winning 17 of its last 20, and now holds the tiebreaker over Detroit. Their bullpen and starters have been dependable, and they’re playing with urgency.

For this matchup, the probable starters are Jack Flaherty for Detroit (8-14 record, 4.60 ERA) and Tanner Bibee for Cleveland (11-11 record, 4.34 ERA). Bibee has been more consistent at home and has shown flashes of dominance against Detroit in past starts. Flaherty, meanwhile, has had moments of brilliance but also bouts of inconsistency, especially in allowing free baserunners and getting hit in crucial innings.

Cleveland’s offense has stepped up when needed, feeding off their pitching and bullpen strength. While they’re not top of the league offensively, they have enough weapons, Jose Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, and others, to push scoring in tight games. Detroit can produce too, but with Cleveland’s bullpen guards tightened and protection for Bibee, the matchup favors the Guardians.

Given the starting pitcher edge, Cleveland’s momentum, and their need to win, I will be on the Guardians taking this one. 

Jim's Play: Guardians (A.L. Game of the Month)

Cleveland (84-71) has been riding a hot streak in the late season, stacking up wins and tightening their grip in the AL Central. Minnesota (66-89) is well out of the playoff picture and playing for pride, but the Guardians are in a position where every game counts. The momentum clearly lies with Cleveland right now, and they’ll try to carry their recent success into this matchup.

The probable pitchers are Joey Cantillo (5-3, 3.27 ERA) for Cleveland and Simeon Woods Richardson (7-4, 4.31 ERA) for Minnesota. Cantillo has shown he can be effective when he commands his fastball and keeps hitters off balance, while Richardson has had moments of strength but has also been hit around when his control slips. The stat line gives the edge to Cleveland’s starter, especially considering his recent starts and how the Guardians have tightened up their defense during this stretch.

Offensively, the Guardians have sparked at the right time. Players like José Ramírez, Bo Naylor, and others have been delivering in clutch situations, and Cleveland’s scoring, while not always explosive, has been timely. Minnesota’s offense has more firepower in terms of raw skills, especially with home run potential, but they’ve been inconsistent and are likely to be tested more than once by Cantillo’s ability to work out of trouble.

Given the combination of Cleveland’s pitching advantage, offensive timing, and momentum, I lean heavily toward the Guardians winning this one. I expect a relatively modest scoring margin, nothing too wild, but enough to keep Minnesota from mounting a comeback.

Jim's Play: 915. Guardians

Cleveland enters this contest at 81-71, coming off of a hot stretch that included a series sweep of the Tigers that tightened their Wild Card deficit to just a game. Minnesota on the other hand is languishing deep in the division standings at 66-86, lacking consistency across their pitching staff and defensive play. The Guardians still have every game here on out that counts for something with the Wild Card being essentially a play-in this season, so road series like this hold added weight on nights like this at Target Field.

Messick, who is making his third start of the season, owns a 3-0 record with an immaculate 1.84 ERA and has fanned 22 in 29 1/3 innings to go with the strong results. He’s showed a good amount of poise and damage limitation ability on nights when his stuff isn’t cooperating, which is a good sign for the young righty. Lopez is 5-4 with a 2.64 ERA who has, in many ways, been the Twins’ best hope of keeping games within striking distance. He hasn’t received the run support he’s deserved in many instances but the collective play around him has shown weaknesses, particularly in a shaky bullpen and defensive lapses.

Offensively, Cleveland has Jose Ramirez (who owns a high wRC+) and Kyle Manzardo to mention a few that can turn it on in clutch moments. The Guardians’ pitching, bullpen, and defense have also been strong in the stretch that has helped them finish off close games. Minnesota has some offensive threats, but their pitching depth has been taxed and bullpen ERA in recent outings has been bloated, so they may not be able to mount an offensive attack should Cleveland establish a lead.

Between Messick on the bump, the Guardian bullpen, and Cleveland’s recent play, they have the advantage. I expect this to be close early on but Cleveland to pull away late thanks to a strong start from the Guardians’ rotation and key late-inning small ballances.

Jim's Play: 919. Guardians

The Reds need to get themselves relevant again in this Wild Card picture which is suddenly beginning to sort itself out, and this home stand is their chance to get some momentum. The Cubs have played well and have been consistent but Imanaga has shown a propensity to allow hard contact at times to survive and that gives the Reds a chance if Lodolo is on top of his game, and he has been when he’s healthy.

Imanaga has been able to sustain quality starts while mixing up pitches to keep hitters off balance but he really doesn’t have much room for error at this point in the season. Lodolo has posted an 8-8 record with a 3.30 ERA, 137 strikeouts, and a 1.04 WHIP over approximately 144.2 innings pitched. He’s also been much more consistent over his last few starts by limiting walks and pitch counts.

This should favor the Reds because of Lodolo’s command of his pitches, plus his ability to suppress runs at home and it’s rare when that won’t happen. If they can get on Imanaga early, maybe with some smart hitting and aggressive baserunning to get him out of his rhythm and then pick up some runs in the mid-to-late innings while the Cubs have shown some vulnerabilities there as well.

This should be close for a few innings before Lodolo holds his shape and the Reds get timely offense. 

Jim's Play: 902. Reds (NL Central Game of the Week)

The Tigers are 85-68 and lead the AL Central by 3.5 games. They are tough at home and playoff bound, but they’ve been showing some chinks in their armor in this recent skid, and they could get back to winning ways with a win today. The Braves are 70-83 and long out of contention. They’re dangerous though, and this is an important divisional game against a team that could mess with other teams’ playoff chances. This has all the makings of a trap game for Detroit: at home against a team with nothing to lose, and who should be swinging for the fences to the extent that they can.

Atlanta sends Bryce Elder to the mound, who is 7-10 with a 5.56 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 142.1 innings. He’s very hittable, but he’s also good enough to have quality starts if he can get a little help from his offense to start an outing. Detroit is starting Charlie Morton, who is also 5.56 ERA and 9-10 on the year. He’s been in a ton of battles and has more experience, but he’s also given up enough hard contact all year long that if things go south early, he could quickly get in trouble.

If the Braves can get Elder some run support early, keep this from being a marathon game, attack any mistake pitches Morton throws, and force Detroit to grind out runs, they could get it done. The Braves have hitters capable of doing that, particularly in situations like this against pitchers with ERAs in the 5s. Atlanta’s bullpen is also more resilient to an early deficit, and also more capable of eating some innings if Elder can keep things close through 5 or 6.

It’s a weird spot with the pitching matchup and with Atlanta’s propensity to steal a win or two in series like this. So with that in mind, I’ll say the Braves, in a mild upset.

Jim's Play: 923. Braves 

San Diego is sitting at 83-69, firmly planted in second for the NL Wild Card while also still in the hunt for the NL West as they trail the Dodgers by 2-games with about 10 games left in the regular season. Every game is huge down the stretch, but the Padres in particular need to take care of business with the Mets (78-74) on their tail in the Wild Card race. The Mets are just a half game back of the Padres for that 2nd Wildcard spot. A win for San Diego keeps them on top and may lock in a tiebreaker since the Padres swept New York earlier this season. The Mets meanwhile have to be in “must win” mode as dropping too many more could see them fall completely.

Add it all up and the likely starters make this a San Diego game. The Padres will roll with Randy Vásquez, who has a 5-6 record with a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts over 123.1 innings pitched. He’s been solid, mostly keeping opponents in line, limiting the bleeding when he gets into jams, and generally showing good control. On the other side, New York turns to Jonah Tong, who is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 11.2 innings of work. Tong has shown some good potential at times, but he’s a free-swinging pitcher who walks too many and right now just has that ERA inflation written all over his stats that will make him susceptible on a high-leverage day like this.

Offensively, San Diego has the pieces to get the job done. Manny Machado has been a consistent force while Fernando Tatis Jr. is getting it together. Plus, the Padres’ lineup has shown in spurts the ability to do just enough, whether that means stringing together hits to manufacture runs or pounding opposing pitching for a heavy margin of victory. New York has been better recently at the plate, but Tong will either walk too many or get hit around with some regularity. Throw in the added intensity of this setting and that means a San Diego jump early could force the Mets to chase the game.

Add it up and the Padres have the upper hand thanks to their pitching depth and bullpen superiority too. If Vásquez can give San Diego a quality start, five or six innings with two or three runs or less, then they should be able to hold. nd and timely offense.

Jim's Play: 951. Padres 

Tonight’s game has big Wild Card implications, as the Padres and Mets battle it out in the race for the last spots in the playoffs. Both teams know that this is an important series to establish momentum, as the Giants, Reds, and Diamondbacks are lurking just a few games behind. However, with both teams splitting the season series and little room for error for both clubs, this is a critical matchup for both sides. In addition, the Padres are contending for the NL West title, trailing the Dodgers by just two games. 

Starting for the Padres is right-hander Michael King, who has posted a 4-2 record and 2.87 ERA for San Diego this season. King has given the Padres quality innings down the stretch and will look to be aggressive and efficient on the road. On the mound for the Mets is righty Clay Holmes, who has an 11-8 record and a 3.75 ERA. Holmes has shown flashes of effectiveness this season, but the Mets have to hope he minimizes hard contact and avoids having San Diego’s powerful lineup beat around the park. Offensively, this is a battle of two clubs trying to play more to their potential. The Padres have been led by their stars, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, while the Mets will need timely hitting and improved execution with runners in scoring position, something that has eluded them throughout the season. This game has to be won, for the Mets to keep the pressure on in the NL Wild Card race, otherwise their season will be in jeopardy with how close the race is right now. Finally, the mental state of the Mets is another factor, as this has been a disappointing year for the Mets and a loss in this series could tighten the race and diminish the Mets chances of catching the playoff hopefuls.

As much as I would like to see the Mets win this series, this sets up as a tight, competitive game in which the Padres have the momentum and the advantage with King on the mound. It’s hard to predict by much, but the edge goes to San Diego in this one as I’ll take the Padres in a win.

Jim's Play: 909. Padres 

The Orioles come into this game at 71-80. They are officially out of the playoff race, but with no expectations on this roster, they still want to end the season as well as possible and not fall back too far under .500. The White Sox have had a very poor season so far, with a record of 57-95. They have been eliminated from contention for a while and have used the remaining games to see what they have in younger players and give playing time to players they will build around in the future.

Pitching for Baltimore will be Tyler Wells. In his limited appearances, Wells has gone 1–0 with a 2.31 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. He has walked just one batter and held opponents to a .146 average on the season. Pérez will pitch for Chicago. The veteran has put up a 1-5 record with a 3.27 ERA, which is a respectable ERA, but the lack of run support he has received and some inconsistency have led to an ugly record for Pérez despite holding opponents to a .188 average.

If Wells can keep the White Sox lineup in check during the early innings, Baltimore has the advantage. The Orioles have the offensive depth to put up runs with a few hits and can score quickly, with a young core led by Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday able to lead rallies. Baltimore’s bullpen is not one of the best, but if Wells struggles or doesn’t go deep enough into the game, they might be able to limit the damage.

Baltimore has the advantage and should be able to control most of the game, taking advantage of mistakes by the White Sox.

Jim's Play: 915. Orioles 

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals both enter this matchup still in contention for one of the last two NL Wild Card spots. Cincinnati is at 75-76, three games back of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot and in the thick of the battle with the Giants and Diamondbacks. St. Louis checks in at 74-78, roughly 4.5 games back of New York. Each team will approach these final games of the season with every game having a taste of postseason do-or-die. Add in that this is a divisional matchup, and both teams will enter the game with the intent to either flip the momentum of this series in their favor or to keep it.

Cincinnati has elected to turn to Brady Singer, who has been one of the more dependable pieces in their rotation this year. Singer is 13-10 with a 3.94 ERA in 155 innings, punching out 149 while limiting opponents to a .235 average. He had a good last start, tossing six innings and allowing just two earned runs. St. Louis will have Andre Pallante on the mound, who has had a tough year with a 6-14 record, a 5.34 ERA, and a 1.43 WHIP. Pallante has had trouble with consistency, giving up quality starts less than 50% of the time. He is prone to working himself into trouble by falling behind in counts.

Cincinnati’s strategy is simple: get another quality start from Singer and rely on the bullpen to hold late if they can. The offense for Cincinnati features the star power of Elly De La Cruz and a speedy lineup that can get on base and work the gaps. That will be their approach with Pallante, to work him around early and go after him if he continues to give up free passes. For the Cardinals, veteran bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras must continue to produce, especially if Pallante does not give them length. The Cardinals have batted with plenty of fight in the lineup all season but continue to leave way too many men on base.

This is a game for Cincinnati to keep their playoff chances alive. They have the edge in starting pitching and their Wild Card situation has a little more urgency than St. Louis. I'll be on the Reds here today. 

Jim's Play: 903. Reds (NL Central Game of the Week)

An intradivisional matchup of two clubs with drastically different goals, as the Cubs are one game away from clinching a playoff WildCard spot and the Pirates are completely out of playoff contention. 

The Cubs have an 87-64 record and while the Brewers are out of their reach in the division race, they hold a tight grip on the 1st Wild Card spot. The Pirates are sitting at 65-87 and have been completely out of playoff contention since before the All-Star break; their motivation will likely be finishing the season with respectability and tuning up for the post-season. 

Pitching for the Cubs will be Matthew Boyd, who is 13-8 with a 3.05 ERA and 171.2 innings pitched. He has a 146 to 39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his opponent’s batting average is .233. Boyd has recorded 17 quality starts for the Cubs this season. On average, he has pitched to a total of just under six innings per start. Boyd started against the Rays last game, and it did not go well, as he lasted just five innings, allowing four earned runs, four hits, and three walks while striking out eight. Boyd will look to bounce back, and be back to his consistency in this one.

For the Pirates, the Cubs will see Johan Oviedo on the mound. He is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 25.2 innings pitched. He has a 31 to three strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his opponent’s batting average is .176. He has not had a quality start yet this season, however, as it takes six innings with an ERA lower than three to qualify as a quality start for a starting pitcher. He has yet to pitch to a total of six innings in a game. Oviedo has been very impressive, however, in his limited work. He is showing the ability to miss bats at a solid rate (K/9 in the nine-to-ten range), and he has been able to limit hard contact in his limited starts. He is unproven and more of a wild card for this one, but as long as the Cubs’ offense doesn’t jump on him early he should have a chance.

The Pirates have a great shot here today as a nice priced dog. WIth Oviedo on the hill he will keep them in the game and that's all you can ask of a dog. Let's take a shot with the Pirates here on Wednesday. 

Jim's Play: 902. Pirates 

Seattle Mariners (82-68) are one of those teams to keep a close eye on late in the season, especially considering their play as of late. The club currently finds itself leading Houston Astros in AL West by 0.5 games. Kansas City Royals, on the other hand, are fighting for their postseason lives, currently 3.5 games out of the last playoff spot, and there is a lot of work to be done.

Mariners have several hitters in their lineup on quite the roll at the moment, most notable of them is probably Randy Arozarena, who went 6-for-15 with 4 home runs against Royals in the early-season meeting. Kansas City currently relies on Vinnie Pasquantino, who has fared especially well post All-Star break with 15 HR and 48 RBIs.

Probable pitchers for today’s game are Logan Gilbert for Seattle and Michael Wacha for Kansas City. Gilbert has had a pretty good year, if a little spotty at times with regards to control; Wacha is a bit of a challenge with a couple of bright spots as an experienced vet with occasional really good showings under fire.

A couple of things to keep an eye on today: how quickly can Seattle’s lineup jump on Wacha and his early pitches, whether Royals can answer with runs of their own, and perhaps how clean the bullpen can stay, as late inning relief is likely to be a big part of this one. Kauffman is also a decent home run-friendly ballpark where extra base hits may count.

I like Seattle here now that they have taken over 1st place in the division. 

Jim's Play: 973. Mariners 

The Guardians have scuffled a little bit lately, but they remain a well above .500 team with a 78–71 record entering play tonight. The Guardians are tied for the last playoff Wildcard spot so they can't letup as this point as every game is big for them. They will rely on strong pitching and some timely hitting to outlast the Tigers in this game. Detroit has been one of the best teams at home and will make this game a tough one for Cleveland. This is a divisional game with playoff implications down the stretch as both teams continue to fight for playoff spots. The Tigers pretty much have the division locked, as they lead 2nd place Cleveland by 6.5 games. That makes this game less important for the Tigers then it does for the Guardians. 

The Guardians will send 5-3 Joey Cantillo to the mound tonight. He is coming into the game with a 3.36 ERA and 92 strikeouts in his 73.2 innings this season. Cantillo has been beyond his years in the big leagues this season, as he has managed to limit the damage and give his team a chance to win nearly every time he takes the ball. He should do a solid job against the Tigers, as the lineup has been about consistency and not necessarily over-the-fence power. Casey Mize will toe the rubber for the Tigers tonight. He is coming into this game with a 14-5 record and a 3.83 ERA in his 143.2 innings this season. The Guardians have been able to exploit him a bit in the past and the key to the game will be if José Ramírez can see the ball well again like he has in previous encounters. Cantillo and the Guardians need to grind out at-bats and make something happen when they have runners on base. If Cantillo can work through the Tigers’ lineup twice and get out with minimal damage each time, the bullpen will be able to keep them there. Detroit has been great at home, but Cleveland’s bats with Ramírez at the top of the lineup and just finding runs in clutch situations might have the edge. The Guardians have been red-hot, winning nine of their last 10 games. I expect them to be right there at the end tonight with this game possibly coming down to the wire with a late win by the Guardians.  

Jim's Play: 967. Guardians (AL Central Game of the Week)

The San Francisco Giants are 75-74, just ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the wild card picture at 75–75. The Giants sit fourth in the Wild Card, 1.5 games back of the Mets while the D'backs are 2-games out. That means this series could have major implications on making the postseason. 

Arizona is led on the mound by Zac Gallen (11-14, 4.84 ERA). Gallen has made 30 starts this season and averages about 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He has struggled to maintain a low ERA but generally comes around and settles in alright. He has definitely been more consistent at home in Chase Field and will likely need to give Arizona a solid start. For the Giants, Kai-Wei Teng is expected to start but with much more inconsistency. The righty is 2-4 with a 7.54 ERA in his few starts. He shows the ability to miss bats (11.1 K/9) but is all over the place with command and location. He also gives up a lot of baserunners and hasn’t been able to make it into the later innings of games recently.

The Arizona offense has been the better of the two in recent weeks with some solid home power and just more reliable bats, especially in big situations. The Giants bats have been up and down, including a bit of a cold spell coming off a loss to the Dodgers. However, they have managed to cobble together enough offense when they needed to to stay relevant and have had a better road record than their record would lead you to believe for a team generally at or around break-even.

I expect this one to come down to the depth of the pitching and usage of the bullpen. Gallen has to give Arizona a chance with a solid start and Arizona bullpen will be called upon; if the Giants can manufacture early traffic in the game, they can create some trouble. Teng has not been able to consistently get into the later innings and it puts Giants in a more tenuous position.

I’m taking Arizona to win this one with the better recent offense, home field and veteran starter.

Jim's Play: 908. Diamondbacks

The Reds are 74–75 and just under .500; the Cardinals are 73-77, which is atrocious but still not quite dead yet in the NL Wildcard Race. Since neither club is yet comfortably in playoff-territory, this one and the rest of the remaining games take on a greater sense of urgency. Cincinnati currently is 2.5 games back in the Wildcard race while the Cardinals are 4-games back. 

Probable pitchers: Zack Littell for the Reds and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. Littell, as usual for a young pitcher with flashes of promise and success, has had stretches where he’s been quite good and other times where he’s been a hot mess. When he’s right, the right-handed Littell has put up a 9-8 record with a 3.78 ERA and about 120 strikeouts in just about 140 innings of work. Liberatore, on the other hand, has had a more tough time finding his footing. The lefty’s overall numbers so far are a 7-12 record with a higher ERA (4.35), with road games showing more extreme tendencies in terms of run suppression. For Liberatore to win this one, the Cardinals’ bunts, command, and hard contact suppression on defense will play significant roles.

Offensively and defensively, this one is very close and the pitching matchups gives the Reds the edge. Cincinnati features a relatively balanced attack that should be able to do some damage; Elly De La Cruz has been one of the big stars in this series for the Reds, with timely hits for power and speed that should put pressure on the Cardinals’ mid-pen. On the other side, if the Cardinals are to have a chance here, they’ll have to do so with offense from the likes of Willson Contreras, and hope to get an early lead since Liberatore, if he continues his recent past struggles, will likely put this game away early. On defense, this series has exposed some cracks in the bullpen and defense for both teams; which bullpen can step up in the later innings here will likely determine this one.

Taking into account the current situation, the pitching matchups, and recent performances by both teams, I’ll go with the Reds here on Monday. 

Jim's Play: 906. Reds 

The LA Dodgers (83-65) evened their series with the Giants with a come from behind win on Saturday, 13-7. The bats finally came alive as they received big hitting from the top to the bottom of the lineup.  The Dodgers hold a slim lead in the NL West over the Padres. The Giants (75-73) are right in the Wild Card mix after being one of the hotter teams. Couple that with the Mets losing streak and the Giants are in the thick of things. 

Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers. He’s been much better than his 2-3 record with a 3.21 ERA and close to 100 strikeouts suggest. Glasnow is showing the swing-and-miss stuff he has throughout his career, but at times command hasn’t been there. The Giants will counter with lefty Robbie Ray, who is having a reliable season for San Francisco and has been a workhorse in the past as well. Ray is 11-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 176 strikeouts. His ability to go deep into games will be key for the Giants against one of the league’s best lineups.

Dodgers hitters appear to be coming on strong down the stretch led by a power spike from Shohei Ohtani and a steady presence from Freddie Freeman. If Glasnow can avoid free passes and keep the ball in the zone he should be in position to dictate the pace of the game. Giants will need Ray to be able to work through the heart of the Dodgers order and induce soft contact when runners are on base. San Francisco has an offense that can produce timely hits, but struggles in pitching and defense have resulted in some costly games over the last few weeks.

Divisional rivalry games against teams with something to play for are almost always hard-fought. Giants will be fired up at home and won’t go away easy. Dodgers have star power, depth, and more importantly recent history of offensive explosion on their side. 

Jim's Play: 955. Dodgers 

The Reds visit the A's in an AL West/NL Central interleague play-in clash on Saturday night in Oakland at Sutter Health Park. On the bump, Cincinnati sends aces while Oakland answers with a resurgent righty: Reds SP Hunter Greene (2025 line: 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 113 SO/90.1 IP) opposes A's SP Luis Severino (2025 line: 6-11, 4.67 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 114 SO/146.1 IP). Greene’s upper-90s fastball-slider combo provides a high ceiling for the Reds with strikeouts, but avoiding free passes is crucial for them to mitigate hard contact with traffic. On the other side, Severino needs to be ahead with first-pitch strikes and fast outs to keep Elly De La Cruz and the top of the lineup from pounding him and turning the lineup over. Oakland won Friday’s opener 3-0, so Cincinnati needs to focus on early run scoring and defending the long ball in a park that will serve well-struck fly balls on warm nights. I’m taking Cincy here on Saturday in what could be close then expected. 

Jim's Play: 929. Reds 

This should be an interesting interleague tilt at Truist Park on Saturday night, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The Astros will send righty Hunter Brown to the mound, who is breaking out in a big way (11-7, 2.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 190 K). The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, a pitch-to-contact righty with a less favorable line (7-9, 5.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). The Astros cruised on Friday, winning 11-3 behind a pinch-hit rookie sensation named Zach Cole. It was a very well-timed injection of power for an offense that has lacked consistency of late. Houston is 80-68 on the year while Atlanta is at 65-82 and prices are indicating a small road favorite and a mid-range total. If Brown’s four-seam fastball and slider keep the Braves swinging and off balance while also not giving away free baserunners, this could get shortened up into matchups for Houston late. For Atlanta to have a chance, Elder will have to strike early and induce ground balls to prevent getting into traffic against the heart of the Astros’ order. I look for the Astros to win here on Saturday. They are the better team with the better pitcher on the hill. 

Jim's Play: 975. Astros

The Reds begin a three-game series in Oakland on Friday night (7:05 p.m. PT). The mound match-up tilts Cincinnati’s way: Brady Singer has shown consistency in his first season with the Reds (13-9, 3.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 145 K) and most recently put together a six-inning, one-run outing against the Mets. Oakland will counter with a right-handed pitcher in J.T. Ginn (3-6, 4.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 K), a contact-oriented arm who is at his best when he pounds the zone early and induces ground balls. Though officially the A's have yet to say Ginn will start and going with undecided. 

Sutter Health Park’s dimensions are nearly a carbon copy of the old Coliseum, but a warm summer and autumn and persistent wind have resulted in the park playing closer to neutral or a touch lively at times. In that case, avoiding traffic on the bases is key. Cincinnati (74-72) is still very much in the mix for a playoff spot in the NL while the A’s (67-80) have leaned on a bunch of young arms and will look to hand a lead to their bullpen as they try to remain afloat in the AL West. The sum here is Singer’s command and length against whether Oakland can make contact early and put a lead on the scoreboard. Reds with Singer are the play here on Friday evening. No matter wich starter the A's use, whether it's Ginn or someone else, I'm sticking with a proven vet in Singer.

Jim's Play: Reds

It’s a fun setup at Citi Field Friday night (7:10 p.m. ET) with Jacob deGrom making his first start in Queens since leaving the Mets, and he brings ace-level numbers into it for Texas: 11-7, 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with 169 strikeouts in 155.2 innings. New York hands the ball to rookie Jonah Tong, who’s shown poise in two MLB starts (1-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 12 K in 11.0 IP) after a rapid rise through the system. The matchup angle is clear: if deGrom commands the zone early and keeps the ball on the ground, Texas can ride length and hand a lead to a rested back end. For the Mets, Tong’s path is first-pitch strikes and avoiding traffic against the middle of the Rangers’ order. Layer on the emotion of deGrom’s return and a Mets rotation leaning on multiple rookies this month, and this has the makings of an excellent game. For me, I'm sticking with the Rangers' vet pitcher who will have extra incentive to perform well tonight before his old home crowd. 

Jim's Play: Rangers

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies square off on Thursday, September 11, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in a game with playoff implications. The Phillies have pretty much wrapped up NL East crown with a 10-game lead over 2nd play NY Mets. They come into this matchup in strong form, while the Mets are battling to stay relevant in the Wild Card race. Philadelphia has been playing with consistency and power in recent weeks, while New York has shown flashes of promise but has struggled to maintain momentum against playoff-caliber opponents.

The probable pitching matchup features left-handers David Peterson for the Mets and Jesús Luzardo for the Phillies. Peterson enters with a 9-5 record and a 3.72 ERA, giving New York stability when he’s on his game, but he has shown some vulnerability against deep lineups. Luzardo has been sharp for most of the season, carrying a 13-6 record and a 4.01 ERA, and his strikeout ability makes him a dangerous matchup against a Mets lineup that can be prone to inconsistency. 

The storylines are clear: the Mets will need Peterson to deliver length and efficiency to keep their bullpen fresh, while the offense leans on stars like Juan Soto to spark run production. For Philadelphia, the power bats of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, along with a deeper lineup overall, give them multiple ways to generate offense. The Phillies also hold the edge in bullpen stability, which could loom large in the later innings if the game remains tight.

Looking at the matchup overall, the Phillies have the upper hand at home. Their combination of a potent offense, reliable pitching, and momentum makes them tough to beat in this spot. 

Jim's Play: 904. Phillies (NL East Game of the Week)

The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays will play their final game of a three-game series on Thursday, September 11, 2025, at Rogers Centre. Each team is playing for postseason positioning as the calendar flips to September. Houston won Wednesday night’s game 3-2 on the back of timely hitting late in the game and a strong bullpen. Toronto also has a lot to play for as they look to solidify their standing in the AL East and a playoff seeding. 

The pitching matcup here on Thursday has the Astros going with Cristian Javier (1–2, 4.43 ERA) while the Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman (9–10, 3.63 ERA). Both teams are atop their respective divisions, with the Astros leading the AL West 79-67 over Seattle and the Blue Jays 83-62 over the Yankees in the AL East. However, their paths to Thursday’s matchup have been a bit different and Toronto is much more aligned for success against the Houston rotation.

The starting pitcher edge leans Blue Jays for this one with Gausman continuing to whiff batters and work deep into ballgames. Javier has yet to find his rhythm in an inconsistent season where he’s struggled with command and been prone to the long ball. The Astros lineup is nowhere near the strength of Toronto’s on the road, where they did find some positivity with a 3-2 win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday powered by a Yainer Díaz homer in the ninth. But even that came against a bullpen that’s just as shaky as Houston’s and the continued depth of the rotation will be questioned after Luis Garcia was placed on the IL.

I like the Jays to bounce back after that previous loss here Thursday. 

Jim's Play: 910. Blue Jays

Wednesday, September 10 the Minnesota Twins and LA Angels finalize their series in Anaheim, with right-handers Taj Bradley (MIN) and José Soriano (LAA) penciled into the respective starting lineups. Bradley (6-7, 4.92 ERA) gives Minnesota a legitimate live fastball since arriving at the deadline. Soriano (10–10, 4.07 ERA) matches him with a sinker/splitter-heavy profile that has cut up Angel Stadium when he’s been getting ground ball outs.

Pitching’s clear-cut home side advantage here in the Angels. The Angels erupted in Tuesday’s series opener with 17 hits in a 12-2 rout, shutting Minnesota down with seven innings of zeroes from Kyle Hendricks while the Twins’ rotation coughed up a two-out rally each. That outburst was powered by extra-base hits from Chris Taylor and Yoán Moncada and a three-RBI game from Luis Rengifo, proof that L.A. can manufacture damage even without much exit velocity.

Minnesota’s ideal game plan runs through Bradley keeping the free passes in check early so the Twins’ bats can apply pressure late, where Royce Lewis has been a particularly potent change of pace this month. If Bradley can maintain his four-seam/slider tandem’s success the first time through, it could shorten the game for a bullpen that may need a chance to catch its breath after Tuesday’s avalanche. For Los Angeles, Soriano’s command could be the x-factor; when he’s living down in the zone he can corral Minnesota’s lift-and-pull tendencies.

All in all, the third game of the set figures to be a narrower, more pitching-dominated effort than Tuesday’s laugher. If Soriano’s putting on a ground ball display and Bradley’s strike throwing carries over, this has the makings of a mid-game standoff won by whichever lineup converts its sparse traffic. While I don't expect a 12-2 Angels blowout, I do expect another home win by the Halos here on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 966. Angels

In the second game of a four-game interleague set in Arlington, the Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers square off on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Milwaukee assigns right-hander Chad Patrick to the mound. Acquired in the offseason to fortify the Brewers rotation, Patrick has stabilized the rotation behind Josh Hader. The right-hander is 3-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 105 innings. Patrick isn’t overpowering, but his efficiency at limiting damage has been a steadying presence this season as the Brewers pitching staff required as much depth as it could get.

Texas counters with Jack Leiter. As is always the case with Texas starters, there is a premium level of intrigue whenever Leiter takes the mound. A fixture in the club’s future plans for years, the former first-round pick is 9-8 with a 3.74 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 127-innings this season. He’s flashed elite potential at times in his rookie year, blending his strikeout stuff with advanced poise.

Patrick is the reliable grinder who can eat up innings, while Leiter is an electric young arm who has the ability to flip the switch on a lineup when his command cooperates. Texas will need a strong showing from Leiter here on Tuesday against the Brewers. 

Jim's Play: 928. Rangers

The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs will match up in the second game of their series on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Chicago sends righty Cade Horton to the hill. Horton has been a model of consistency for the Cubs, posting a 9-4 record with a 2.78 ERA, 87 strikeouts, and 32 walks on the year. He has been especially effective on the road, where his ERA is even lower, making him a key figure in the Cubs’ rotation this season.

Atlanta will counter with righty Spencer Strider. The season has been a frustrating one for Strider, who has a 5-12 record with a 4.97 ERA. Despite the ugly stats, Strider’s stuff is always electric, and when he’s on, Atlanta has a chance to win. The key for Strider has been maintaining his command and avoiding the kind of mistakes that lead to the long inning that can be his undoing.

If Horton continues his solid work, the Cubs will be in the driver’s seat. Take the Cubs here on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 905. Cubs 

The Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians for the second game of this three-game series on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. It’s early in the week but this game has late-season, playoff implications for both clubs, as they’re both in the hunt for a wild-card spot, with Cleveland coming in with a lot of momentum after blowing out the Royals in the opener.

Kansas City will send lefty Noah Cameron to the mound. The lefty has been one of the Royals’ more reliable starters this season, posting a 7-6 record with a 3.03 ERA and 88 strikeouts. He’s kept hard contact in check while being able to work deep into games and put his defense in position to make plays, but he has likely benefited a little from those plays based on some of the advanced metrics this season. Nonetheless, it’s enough for the Royals to hope that he can keep things close for them.

Joey Cantillo will take the ball for the Guardians. The lefty is 4-3 on the season with a 3.73 ERA and 87 strikeouts. He’s probably not a strikeout machine, but he’s been able to keep his innings manageable while generating enough ground balls and staying out of bad situations for the Guardians to keep a lead or a deficit manageable.

Cleveland enters this game with a lot of momentum after their offense finally came alive in an 10-2 victory Monday behind the strong pitching of Slade Cecconi. That game shifted momentum in the division race and really set the tone for this series.

It’s kind of a matchup of two young lefties with similar steady stats, with the Royals hoping Cameron can be even better than the Guardians’ Cantillo. But if Cantillo can gain an edge on the Royals early, and Cleveland’s offense gets another day of running in the park, this could turn into a series in which the Guardians really take control.

Jim's Play: 914. Guardians

The Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics are set to square off in an interesting matchup. Boston counters with lefty Garrett Crochet, while Oakland goes with righty Luis Morales.

Crochet enters with a 14-5 record, 2.67 ERA, and 218 strikeouts. The southpaw has proven himself as the ace of the Red Sox rotation this season. Crochet has been able to consistently stymie opposing offenses and pitch deep into games all year. For Oakland, the Athletics choose to start Morales in this one. Morales is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 30 strikeouts on the season. Morales has been a revelation in his limited appearances for the Athletics. Morales is an improved command righty who has also shown the ability to miss bats. The one question on Morales has been if he could hold up over the course of the long season.

Crochet should hold a significant advantage in this area simply from the number of starts and innings he’s logged this season. Morales has not been truly tested by a more disciplined lineup like Boston’s this season, so this will be a major step up in competition for the young right-hander. While the Sox hold the edge, I have to looks at Morales and see that he does have that live dog perspective. He's been pitching great and no reason he can't carry that over to tonight. If he keeps the A's close into the late innings then the playing field levels off and this dog has a great shot at the win. 

Jim's Play: 968. Athletics

The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals will play the final game of the series in the 2025 season at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:10 PM ET. The Twins are starting Bailey Ober for this game while the Royals are countering with Michael Lorenzen.

Bailey Ober (4-7, 5.23, 99) will make his 27th start of the season for the Twins. He has pitched 124 innings while striking out 99 batters and his 1.35 WHIP indicates the number of baserunners he has permitted. Ober has shown up-and-down results in 2025 with some solid outings and some rather poor ones.

Michael Lorenzen (5-9, 4.54, 105) will get the nod for the Royals on Sunday as he takes the mound for his 24th start of the year. Lorenzen has not been a front of the rotation starter but he has been better than Ober as he has pitched 119 innings and 105 strikeouts and has a 1.33 WHIP. Lorenzen has not been able to get into a rhythm of putting together quality starts at any point in the season and tends to be susceptible when facing lineups that can take a lot of at-bats.

This matchup could easily be a bullpen game as both starting pitchers have an ERA well over 4.50. The Twins have had to rely on Joe Ryan and Pablo López but have not had much behind them in the rotation. The Royals aren’t a great offensive team but they do have home-field advantage and could muster enough offense against Ober to at least win the final game of the series. 

Jim's Play: 920. Royals

The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds conclude their series on Sunday, September 7, 2025, in a game with big Wild Card implications. The Mets hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, a rookie making his Major League debut. Sproat is here on merit, as he notched a 2.59 ERA in his last 11 starts at Triple-A and has a polished arsenal that gives New York reason to believe that his unflappable presence can steady the back end of the rotation.

The Reds respond with one of the hardest throwers in the league in Hunter Greene. Greene, whose tenure in Cincinnati has always been about the future of this club, goes for the staff. The 5-4 starter enters with a 2.70 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 83.1 innings this season and his numbers reflect his ability to pound the strike zone and dominate lineups. His fastball-slider combination has been nearly unhittable, and he gets the ball at home in a true leverage spot.

Cincinnati trails the Mets by a few games in the Wild Card standings, and this matchup has big implications for both teams. The edge in this spot goes to Cincinnati, who have the pitching in Greene to beat New York and silence Sproat in his debut. But for this game to have its full impact, all eyes will be on New York and what Sproat can provide against an outfield that includes Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. The Mets will need big games from Pete Alonso and Juan Soto against Greene to stay in the race. With Cincinnati pitching a frontline starter against a rookie, the Reds have the edge in a low-scoring game, which sees Cincinnati taking the game.

Jim's Play: 906. Reds -

The Minnesota Twins are at Kauffman Stadium this Saturday to face the Kansas City Royals, September 6, 2025, and will have Joe Ryan on the mound. Ryan has been a workhorse all season, leading the rotation with a 13-7 record, an ERA just over 3.00, and a WHIP below 1.00. In his last outing, Ryan tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing only five hits while striking out six. He has excellent control of the strike zone, which is why he should lead the Twins to victory against Stephen Kolek.

Kolek has gone 4-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 85.2 innings pitched this year for the Royals. While he isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, averaging just under 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he can pitch effectively to keep his team in the game. Kolek features a heavy sinker, but it also produces a lot of fly balls that can carry in Kauffman Stadium. In his last start, Kolek worked six innings, allowing only one run on three hits while striking out four and walking one. In a matchup that features two shaky offenses, expect a lot of pressure on the starting pitchers. Kolek will need to keep runs off the board early in the game if the Royals want to win. I like the Royals at home here on Saturday to pull out a low scoring final with the Twins. 

Jim's Play: 970. Royals 

The Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves are set to play on Saturday, September 6, 2025, at Truist Park. On the mound for Seattle is Bryce Miller. He has a 4-5 record, a 5.71 ERA, and a 1.41 WHIP in 64.2 innings so far this season. Miller is a fly ball pitcher who has consistently allowed an unsustainable number of baserunners and hasn’t been able to contain home runs. On the opposite side is the Atlanta Braves rookie, Hurston Waldrep. He is 4-0 so far this season, and has a 1.01 ERA with 33 strikeouts and only one home run allowed in 35.2 innings. The rookie has shown an advanced level of control and poise for his experience.

The Mariners still have one of the more dangerous offenses on paper with Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena anchoring the lineup, but they are in a prolonged slump on the road and have particularly struggled in recent outings against NL East teams. Atlanta doesn’t have the pitching staff they’ve had in previous years, but they still have the lineup depth and home-field advantage to support their young starter. The Braves should be able to take advantage of the pitching disparity and set the tone early with Waldrep on the hill. 

Jim's Play: 978. Braves 

Two teams fighting for a playoff spot, the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, open a weekend set on Friday, September 5, 2025. Gavin Williams (9-5, 3.26 ERA, 143 strikeouts) is set to pitch for Cleveland, as he has been one of the more reliable starters for the Guardians this season. On the other side, Tampa Bay has been working with Griffin Jax (1-7, 4.98 ERA) as a starter but he has not found success with the ballclub. The Rays have been hot as of late, winning seven straight games, and getting an offensive spark from Junior Caminero, who is already at 40 home runs for the year. Cleveland is most dangerous when José Ramírez (27 home runs) is at the plate, so they are getting a boost in the middle of the lineup with the presence of Kyle Manzardo. This is a team that desperately needs a stop in its tracks as Cleveland has won only two of the last six meetings this season. Cleveland needs to get some early run support by laying off Williams’ fastball as Tampa Bay is forced to chase pitches. If Cleveland can get baserunners in front of Ramírez, then that will force Jax into action. I have to stick with the hot team here on Friday and that's Tampa Bay!

Jim's Play: 918. Rays 

The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds square off on Friday night, September 5, 2025, at the Great American Ball Park. The Mets will start lefty David Peterson, who owns an 8-5 record with a 3.61 ERA and 136 strikeouts over his past 26 starts. The 27-year-old has given 15 quality starts this season, but he came up limp against Miami in his last outing by surrendering eight earned runs on seven hits and three walks over two innings. The Reds counter with Andrew Abbott, who has also produced an 8-5 record, but has been more solid on the mound. He has 125 strikeouts over his past 24 outings, to go along with a 2.65 ERA and 10 quality starts on the year. Abbott’s last start was good enough as he was able to limit the Phillies to two runs on nine hits over five innings.

Peterson has been more consistent this season than in previous years, but he hasn’t been able to finish the way that the Mets needed him to in September. Abbott has more upside and he has also been able to limit the damage of late. Cincinnati is right on the postseason bubble and can’t afford to lose at home, so this will be a must-win for a team that still has a shot at the Wild Card. Abbott will have the Mets at bay, as they’ll look to Peterson’s last outing to establish a blueprint for their offense. 

Jim's Play: 906. Reds 

The Chicago White Sox face the Detroit Tigers in an AL Central contest on Friday, September 5, 2025. Shane Smith takes the mound for the White Sox and has a 4-7 record with a 3.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 120.1 innings, striking out 112 and issuing few walks. He has been able to limit damage and keep the Sox in games deep into counts. The Tigers start Jack Flaherty, who has struggled for consistency. Flaherty has a 7-13 record with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, striking out 169 in 142.1 innings. He has had swing-and-miss stuff but also has been victimized by big innings due to an erratic command, with one late in August against Kansas City being a good example. The White Sox have generated more balance in their offense in recent weeks and should be able to get to Flaherty early, and Smith has been steady enough to keep Detroit’s offense in check. Chicago’s bullpen has improved and can handle the Tigers if Smith can get a solid start. The Tigers don't justify the high price tag on them today. I'll take the nice dog play with the Sox.  

Jim's Play: 913. White Sox 

The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins will meet Thursday, September 4, 2025, at Target Field for their game with a first pitch of 7:40 p.m. ET. The Twins are favored to win but both of these teams need to play with more consistency the rest of the way. The Twins will send Taj Bradley to the mound, he’s 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA. Bradley can be quite erratic at times, but when he’s on with his command, he can miss a lot of bats and pitch deep into games. The White Sox will counter with Frasier Ellard, who’s had some good starts this season, but needs to contain this Twins lineup that has been very streaky lately.

Overall this should be a game that could come down to who can avoid the big inning as much as possible. Minnesota hasn’t been very much of a power offense lately and the White Sox have really needed to grind out their hits rather than string many rallies together lately. It should also come down to how Ellard can pound the zone and avoid the big inning while Bradley tries to settle in as early as possible against a Chicago team that has had a hard time stringing many runs together recently.

The expected outcome is a low-scoring game where both pitchers keep it in hand for the late innings and a where the bullpens take over and decide the outcome. If the White Sox stay in this game until the pens come around then we have a great shot at another live dog winner here today. 

Jim's Play: 959. White Sox 

The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays will finish their series Thursday, September 4, 2025. The first pitch will be thrown at 6:40 p.m. ET and both the Rays and Guardians are heavily involved in the American League playoff picture, so stakes will be high in every game. The Rays are currently 2.5 back in the Wildcard with the Guardians at 3-games back. 

Pitching for Cleveland will be left-hander Logan Allen. He will be making his 30th start and is 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 134 innings. Allen has been somewhat up-and-down this season but has settled in of late with five straight starts allowing three runs or fewer. Cleveland will need him to limit the damage and go deep into the game to give the rotation a boost late.

Right-hander Ryan Pepiot will get the nod for Tampa Bay. He comes in with a 10-10 record and a 3.70 ERA and has fanned 155 batters in 158 innings with a strong 1.15 WHIP. The 27-year-old has a good feel for all of his pitches and his ability to limit hard contact could lead to another quality start.

Tampa with home field here and I believe is the better pitcher in Pepiot. He strikes out a lot of batters and has an excellent WHIP. 

Jim's Play: 956. Rays 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates will meet at PNC Park on Wednesday, September 3, 2025 for a Game 2 clash at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are significant favorites to win, but the Pirates are playing well and have done a good job against the Dodgers during the series so far. The Pirates took game one on Tuesday, 9-7 as they jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the 1st inning. The Dodgers do have the firepowe and tied the game, but the bullpen let them down in the late innings. 

Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani has name power and is one of the best names in baseball, but he has struggled with consistency this season. Ohtani has a 4.18 ERA in 11 starts this season and an ERA over 6.00 on the road. He’s also had some starts this season where he’s not gone deep into the game, including a few three-inning outings. Los Angeles has one of the best offenses in baseball and can bail him out at times, but they have allowed some offense to counter-balance their rotation’s weaknesses, and Ohtani has shown some weaknesses in particular.

Braxton Ashcraft is a starter who’s been one of Pittsburgh’s best pitchers in a good rotation. He is 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA on the year and has an even better 3.13 ERA at PNC Park. Ashcraft has a lot of momentum in his favor as well as since the All-Star break, the lefthander has continued to be effective at limiting hard contact and working deep in the game.

I see a closer game than the line suggests. It’s tough to bet against a power-hitting Dodgers lineup, but Ashcraft has been good and Ohtani hasn’t been able to put the Pirates away this series so far. This has live dog written all over it again for the Pirates as they remain a thorn in the Dodgers side. 

Jim's Play: 904. Pirates 

Wednesday, September 4, 2025, the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers close out their series with the first pitch at Comerica Park at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Mets have won the first two games of the set with a dominating 12-5 victory the night before and are looking to finish Detroit off and help clinch a playoff spot of their own.

New York’s starting pitcher will be Clay Holmes who is pitching to an 11-6 record with a 3.60 ERA this season. Holmes has been pretty consistent all year, allowing the Mets to consistently get to their dangerous bullpen with good innings and a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Casey Mize will toe the rubber for Detroit, who has also been one of the most consistent arms on their roster this season with a 12-5 record and a 3.95 ERA. Mize has the ability to keep runs down at home for Detroit and will need to be at his best to keep this Mets lineup in check, who have been producing all series long.

Detroit will be looking for offense off the bat of Riley Greene and the bat of Javier Báez who have the potential to hit the ball out of the park at any time. However, the Mets have a much deeper lineup and bullpen to hold an edge if the game gets to a close one late. Both starters are steady but not dominant, so this could turn into a close game where bullpen performances will determine who comes out ahead.

The Mets have the momentum and a overall edge here.

Jim's Play: 921. Mets 

The Toronto Blue Jays (79-59) and Cincinnati Reds (70-68) square off Tuesday, September 2, 2025, at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Toronto is holding down the AL East first place with both the Yankees and Red Sox 2.5 games back. Meanwhile Cincinnati is trying to keep pace in the NL Wild Card race with the Cardinals and Giants. 

Toronto will start José Berríos on the mound. Berríos has posted a 9-5 record and 3.95 ERA this season, recording 14 quality starts and averaging just under six innings per outing. His pitch command and ability to avoid early damage is a reason to trust him when he takes the ball. He’ll face off against lefty Nick Lodolo, who is currently at 8-7 with a 3.22 ERA. Lodolo has recorded 130 strikeouts in just over 134 innings of work and possesses swing-and-miss stuff.

Offensively, Toronto still has one of the most prolific lineups in the league, residing in the top 5 in hits, slugging and runs scored. The Reds have been extremely streaky this year and rely on timely power from their middle of the order to post an offensive showing. The Reds have been particularly potent at home. Both teams have solid bullpens, although Toronto’s rotation depth has helped it to keep its bullpen in good shape.

This is the type of pitching matchup that could go a long way in this game, with the possibility of both Berríos and Lodolo keeping things tight early. If both can pitch to form, it could very well be a low-scoring game that comes down to the later innings. The Reds trailed 4-2 in the bottom of the 9th yesterday and rallied to win the game, 5-4. I look for the Reds to keep winning here on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 972. Reds 

The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs clash from Wrigley Field on this Labor Day Monday at 4:05 PT ET. The Braves will start Spencer Strider who is 5-12 with a 4.95 ERA. The right-hander has had a streaky year but he can miss bats and threw a no-hitter. This should be a quick reminder that he is among the league leaders in strikeouts. In his past three starts, he has 44 strikeouts to 19 walks over 31 innings. Colin Rea will toe the rubber for the Cubs with his 10-6 record and 4.23 ERA and his strength has been allowing right-handers to hit only .233 on the season.

The Cubs enter with one of the best records in baseball at 78-59. This team has been extremely hot and they are 41–25 at home. With good offense and consistent starting pitching, Chicago is still in the playoff mix in the National League. The Braves have not found a groove in a crowded NL East but they can still compete if Strider has a good start.

This should be a low to moderate scoring game. Strider can slow down Chicago’s offense early and give the Braves a chance then the Braves can pull out a win here on Monday. 

Jim's Play: 903. Braves 

The Blue Jays will travel to Great American Ball Park to open a set against the Reds in the first game of the series. Toronto is hitting their stride at the right time and is ready to test the Reds at home, where Cincinnati is the -112 favorite. 

Hunter Greene has had a great season so far and has been impressive with a 2.81 ERA. The Reds will be sending their ace, who is known for his heat and is one of the top pitchers in the league when it comes to strikeouts. Toronto also has a great option in their rotation with Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is coming in on form, as he’s posted 16 strikeouts and has only allowed four runs in his last 11.1 innings pitched. If he continues this, the Jays have a chance to shut down the Reds early in the game.

Both the Reds and Blue Jays are likely to see their starting pitchers eat most of the innings as Greene and Bassitt are in form. With the latter holding opponents to 4 runs in his last 11.1 innings, and the former having an impressive 2.81 ERA so far, the early stages of the game will likely be shut down by pitching. 

Great American Ball Park will favor the pitchers over the hitters, especially with such a great starting pitching matchup on the field. It also gives the Reds that home field advantage here on Monday. It's difficult not to take Hunter Greene when you can, especially at home. 

Jim's Play: 920. Reds 

Sunday at Citi Field, we see the conclusion to a series between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins on August 31, 2025. The Mets are solid favorites, but the Marlins are an interesting play at live underdog prices for this divisional matchup. Miami gets starting pitcher Sandy Alcántara on the mound, who is just starting to find some of his groove with an offense that isn’t very helpful. Alcántara has been underwhelming across the board on the season, but he can still produce ace level pitching on any given night. When his sinker is working and he’s keeping hitters on the ground, he is an entirely different pitcher who can stifle even the New York Mets lineup. On the other side, the Mets counter with Kodai Senga. Senga has been quite excellent in terms of both command and swing and miss stuff this season and is a significantly better pitcher on paper.

On the season, the Mets own a better record and a better playoff standing, but the Marlins have actually shown flashes as a live dog in multiple games this year. The Marlins scored 11 runs on Saturday to upset the Mets so they have the bats to make some damage. 

Miami offers value as a live underdog in this game. If Sandy Alcántara can get back to pitching within his limits and this Miami offense can show some patience at the plate as they did on Saturday, they can win games against the Mets. I won't be shocked at all by a Miami Win on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 955. Marlins (Dog Shocker)

Prevailing in this classic meeting of two of baseball’s top clubs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays get set to conclude their three-game series with Sunday’s contest at Rogers Centre, as first pitch is scheduled for 1:37 p.m. ET. Both teams have been among the best in the league through two months of play. The Brewers, in fact, rank number one in baseball when it comes to total record, while the Blue Jays own a first-place standing in the American League East, as well.

Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 3.10) will start the game for Milwaukee and has been a model of consistency throughout the season. Posting quality innings and an ERA just under three at this stage of the schedule, the Brewers have been rewarded with his reliability each time he’s gone to the mound. Max Scherzer (5-2, 3.82) gets the nod for Toronto and will have to go up against a lineup featuring an extremely dangerous Christian Yelich and a dynamic power threat in the emerging star Jackson Chourio, who mashed a late-inning homer earlier in the series. The Jays have been a dangerous offensive unit as well, however, featuring many legitimate threats. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger, who is having a breakout season, all present problems for Milwaukee, as does the squad’s elite talent at the top of the rotation with Scherzer on the mound.

The Brewers have obviously had the better of things so far, as they have won the first two games in this series. However, Toronto has the ability and should have the home-field advantage to keep this one competitive. Both teams have solid starting pitchers, which bodes for a close game. I look for Toronto to pull out the final game and salvage one in this series of top teams. 

Jim's Play: 978. Blue Jays 

This Sunday series finale is set for 12:10 p.m. ET between the Cardinals and the Reds, a contest that will end the St. Louis road trip. Cincinnati is slightly favoured in the latest Cardinals vs Reds odds and this is due in part to the Cincinnati pitching match-up. Both teams have something to play for in this game as the Cardinals are still in the Wild Card race and an outright win will help their cause, whereas the Reds are trying to maintain their current Wild Card standing after disappointing results in their last few series. Cincinnatti do hold the edge in the offensive department, though the St. Louis Cardinals also have their own top-of-the-lineup bats in Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson.

The Reds will start Brady Singer (11-9, 4.06 ERA) and he’ll face off against Andre Pallante (6-12, 5.44 ERA). Singer has been quite consistent and serviceable and he does have the benefit of starting the game in his home park, which does provide an edge. Singer and the Reds have had success against Pallante this season, having held him to two ER or less in each of their past three meetings (April 29, May 13 and August 22). The Cardinals right hander has not had a good season at all as his ERA paints a picture of an opponent the Reds lineup should be able to put up a runs against and he may need big days from his lineup if he’s going to keep the Reds in check for the whole game.

Jim's Play: 951. Reds

The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros will continue their series on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025, at Daikin Park in Houston.  The Astros (75-60) have fared well at home, posting a 41-28 record. The Angels (62-72) are having another season that doesn’t live up to their potential. Los Angeles is sending Kyle Hendricks (6-9, 5.04 ERA in 130 IP) to the mound. The left-hander’s record is better than his ERA suggests, but Hendricks has also struggled against the Astros this season with a 8.00 ERA in their meetings this year. The Astros are starting Spencer Arrighetti (1-5, 6.21 ERA in 34 IP). This will be his first start back since he was injured with a broken thumb in early June. He’s still an unknown at this point after a few months on the sidelines.

The Angels have had a roller coaster season with no consistent group on the lineup card. They rank in the bottom five in both batting average and on-base percentage. Taylor Ward is their best and most consistent hitter, but Mike Trout is still in the mix. He’s not at MVP-level anymore but he still hits for power and he’s on the verge of a career milestone. Los Angeles’ pitching staff ranks in the bottom five in ERA and WHIP. Their defense isn’t helping them either as they’ve committed many errors and have below-average metrics when it comes to saving runs.

The Astros have been more consistent at home, where they’ve won the majority of their games. Their offense is top five in batting average but they’re middle of the pack in runs scored. Their rotation has been decimated by injuries but the recent returns of Cristian Javier and the recent bullpen shuffle with Lance McCullers Jr. at least gives them some options. Arrighetti’s spot start will be a tell but the Astros should still have faith in their lineup and hope to get a few innings out of him while he eases back into form.

I don't usually like laying over 1.50 on a team, but this is getting late in the season and you have to take money opportunities when they arise. Lay the price with the Astros here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: 914. Astros (AL Game of the Month)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals square off Saturday, August 30, 2025, at Nationals Park. First pitch is at 4:05 p.m. ET. Ryan Pepiot (3.82 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9) will toe the rubber for the Rays, while Jake Irvin (5.40 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9) gets the nod for the Nationals. Irvin has struggled mightily this season with poor control, issuing too many walks, and failing to contain hard contact. His WHIP, which was already too high, has ballooned to 1.83 over the last 30 days. The pitching matchup favors Tampa Bay, but Pepiot will need to be mindful of the walks with a Nationals offense capable of capitalizing.

Offensively, Tampa Bay is the better all-around team. They can score in a variety of ways, while Washington has relied on the production of the middle of its lineup to stay afloat. The Nationals pitching staff has largely been a black hole, which is why its offense has had to rely on coming from behind.

Take the Rays here on Saturday with Pepiot on the mound. 

Jim's Play: 923. Rays 

The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers will take the field again Saturday, August 30, 2025 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Milwaukee’s last game was a 7–2 victory in the series opener, thanks to a six-hit shutout from Freddy Peralta. The Blue Jays answered with a quality start from Shane Bieber. The Brewers will send Quinn Priester to the mound. He is 11-2 with a 3.44 ERA, and while he has been effective in all his starts, he has also been especially dependable by going at least five innings in nearly all of them. The Blue Jays will start Kevin Gausman. Gausman is 8-10 with a 3.87 ERA, but is a well-known commodity with a strong lifetime record against Milwaukee.

In terms of how good the Brewers and Blue Jays are overall, these are two of the top teams in baseball. Milwaukee has the best record in baseball. Toronto has the best record in the American League. Of course, the Blue Jays also have a home-field edge, having the best record at Rogers Centre in 2025. 

I'll take the host in this one as I expect the Blue Jays with home field to bounce back with a win. 

Jim's Play: 922. Blue Jays 

The San Diego Padres and Twins will square off on Friday, August 29, 2025, at Target Field in Minnesota. The Padres will go with left-hander Nestor, while the Twins will counter with Zebby Matthews. Cortes is 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The issue with Nestor is the stark difference between the times he looks dominant, and the innings he can give up just because his command slips. For that reason, San Diego will be challenged in this one, despite a fairly decent matchup, by Matthews and the Twins. The Twins pitcher is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and he has struggled to put up acceptable results in his outings this year against teams with the level of contact and power this Padres lineup has.

On the offensive side of things, the Padres average just a hair under four runs per game, and they have a fairly dependable lineup from top to bottom, as well as key power threats in Manny Machado and Luis Arraez, who is one of the best in the league in terms of simply reaching base. The Twins hope to be able to get some pop from Byron Buxton and their other bats in the middle of the order, as Minnesota has not been consistent but can certainly put up big innings against pitchers that allow traffic on the basepaths.

The Twins sold out big at the trade deadline as they look to rebuild. The Padres are right in the mix for both the NL West and a Wildcard spot. Cortes looked very good in his last start agains the Dodgers as he was dominant throughout. I'm looking for that Cortes to return here and once again dominate the Twins lineup. 

Jim's Play: 977. Padres

The Toronto Blues welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to town here on Friday for their three-game series. Toronto looks to start Shane Bieber, who is making only his second start since coming off of IL. In his first outing, Bieber was on his game - six innings, one run, nine strikeouts. His command and swing-and-miss stuff came right back and he should enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one.

Milwaukee will counter with Freddy Peralta, who has been sharp all season long with a 2.68 ERA and a league-high 15 wins. But the advanced metrics show Peralta pitching behind traffic a lot this year, and while he has done a nice job of winning games, this is not an easy matchup versus a deep Toronto lineup on the road.

Milwaukee does have the best record in the league, but they have not been on top of their game recently, falling in seven of their last 11. Toronto has ridden a hot stretch to the top of the AL East and plays with momentum.

Toronto has a very strong home record this season at Rogers Centre and will present a significant challenge for the Brewers and Peralta. Milwaukee’s season-long stats vs. good starting pitching have been solid but their offense of late has not been making enough hay to cover, especially with B.J. Ryan and Bobby Lemos behind the plate. Toronto has plenty of power in Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer to take advantage against Peralta, who has had some soft batted ball luck this year.

This spot lines up nicely for Toronto for multiple reasons: They are getting a sharp Bieber back on the mound; They are at home in Rogers Centre, and they are riding strong momentum while the Brewers are scuffling.

I'll take the Jays here at home on Friday. 

Jim's Play: 974. Blue Jays 

The Pirates and Cardinals will complete their four-game set on Thursday, August 28, 2025, with first pitch at 2:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Pittsburgh will send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. Ashcraft is having a breakout season thus far, boasting a 2.70 ERA and a fastball in the upper 90s. The righty has been able to elevate the ball and induce swings and misses while limiting the long ball (only one home run on the season). St. Louis will counter with Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is having an uninspiring year, with a 6-10 record and a 5.17 ERA. The veteran starter has given up hard contact at an alarming rate and his command has left something to be desired as well.

The Pirates have won two of the first three games of this series and might be gaining some momentum at the right time. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four and are more playing out the string.

I think Ashcraft should be able to work his way through the Cardinals lineup for five or six innings. This should give the Pirates bullpen an opportunity to continue to show they can finish games. As for the Cardinals offense, the key will be their approach against Ashcraft. The Pirates lineup can certainly exploit Mikolas, especially if he struggles with command.

Jim's Play: 903. Pirates 

The Boston Red Sox will take on the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday night at Camden Yards. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox will start Brayan Bello who is 10-6 with a 3.07 ERA. Bello has been able to go deep into games and deliver quality starts at a consistent rate. The Orioles will counter with left-hander Dietrich Enns, who is 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Boston has the edge on the mound in this one, as Enns has not been able to keep baserunners off the scoreboard.

The Boston Red Sox are among the top ten offenses in baseball this season, and the Orioles are in the bottom third. Jarren Duran has been on base at a high clip and slugged well this season. Trevor Story has driven in the most runs on the Red Sox. Baltimore has struggled with both offense and pitching. They have to rely on spot starters and have overworked their bullpen. Baltimore has the home field advantage, but the Red Sox have also traveled well this season and have more momentum heading into this series.

This is a lopsided matchup in nearly every aspect, from the starting pitching to the depth of the lineup. Bello should be able to control this game, keeping the Orioles in check and keeping pressure on their bullpen. This should be a moderately scoring game, with the Red Sox picking up a win. 

Jim's Play: 965. Red Sox

On Wednesday, August 27 the Atlanta Braves take on the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. The first pitch of the game is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Atlanta will send left-hander Joey Wentz to the mound for this contest, and he will be opposed by right-hander Ryan Gusto of Miami. Wentz is 4-4 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has had a pair of decent starts in between two very poor outings, most recently giving up six earned runs in a shade over three innings. Gusto is 7-6 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Neither of these starters is overpowering, so run support and bullpen efficiency will be paramount.

In terms of individual match-ups, Atlanta also has slight edge at the plate. Marcell Ozuna is the big power bat in the Braves lineup, but there is enough pop around him. Miami’s offense is more one dimensional, and it has been prone to inconsistency throughout the season. If Wentz can weather an early storm, Atlanta’s bats have the pop to pick him up if he struggles early. Miami’s best chance is to work the Braves starter early and test Atlanta’s bullpen depth.

While Atlanta might have a slight edge in the lineup, I like the scrappy Marlins team at home where they have surprised many.  I'll take the Marlins a small home dog here today. 

Jim's Play: 952. Marlins 

The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will meet Wednesday, August 27, 2025 in Game 1 of a three-game series at Progressive Field, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. The Rays will start Drew Rasmussen, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far in 2025 with a 10-5 record, a 2.62 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. He has been consistent with quality starts and provides the Rays with a clear advantage on the mound. The Guardians counter with Slade Cecconi, who is just 5-6 on the season with a 4.41 ERA. Cecconi has had some good starts but has been more uneven than Rasmussen and will likely be at a disadvantage against a Rays lineup that has been potent when healthy.

The Rays’ offense has been anchored by Junior Caminero, who has put together a breakout year with power numbers that should put him at an elite level in the league. Tampa Bay has relied on his bat and steady production from the supporting cast to remain in the Wild Card mix. Cleveland has once again had to rely on José Ramírez as the linchpin in their offense with players like Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan to support them, but the lineup has been inconsistent.

The reason to lean toward Tampa Bay in this matchup is the clear advantage on the mound and their ability to string together big innings when they put runners on the bases. Cleveland has home field advantage but their offense has had issues against top-end starting pitching and Rasmussen is squarely in that category. Tampa Bay will likely be able to control the tempo of this game. 

Jim's Play: 963. Rays

The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants square off Tuesday, August 26, 2025, at Oracle Park in a matchup that highlights two pitchers at very different points in their seasons. The Cubs will turn to left-hander Matthew Boyd who owns a 12-6 record, 2.61 ERA and 129 strikeouts. He has been lights out all year, throwing 16 quality starts in 25 appearances while also stringing together 15 consecutive games pitching at least five innings. The Giants will counter with Justin Verlander who is in the midst of a terrible season where he is 1-10 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The issue for Verlander has been getting runners on base while also surrendering the home run.

The Cubs have been playing their best baseball of the season of late as they own an 8-2 record in their last 10 games, being driven by quality pitching while being opportunistic at the plate. Their rotation in particular has a collective ERA under 3.00 during this stretch. The Giants have been hit and miss at home recently and have particularly had a tough time winning games where their pitching staff gives up runs and especially the long ball.

We trust the Cubs in this spot as Boyd has been one of the best starters in the game this year and the Cubs are rolling after a very solid road trip. Verlander has been so bad it is hard to trust San Francisco at any point in the year but even more so here. If the Cubs can keep playing like they have recently and continue to take advantage of mistakes then they should control the game. 

Jim's Play: 909. Cubs (NL Game of the Month)

The Red Sox and Orioles are back at it Tuesday night in this series finale at Camden Yards. The visitors are the slight favorites in this one as they put Lucas Giolito on the mound while the Orioles go with Kyle Bradish. Giolito has been serviceable all year and stands at 8-2 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 111.1 innings. He is a flyball pitcher who suppresses traffic at the plate and has given his team quality innings this year. With that said, he also has a track record and is more than reliable in a big divisional game. Bradish, on the other hand, will make his first start of the season as he was coming off the IL. His innings will be under a microscope with some mystery around how deep he can go and if he will have good stuff out of the gate.

The Red Sox will be coming into this one riding a wave after Jarren Duran homered in the walk-off three-run shot in the series opener. The bats have been swinging on timeliness across the order in their last few games. Baltimore has struggled as of late and the pitching has especially seen cracks against the division, exposing their bullpen early.

Between Giolito’s dependability against Bradish’s unknowns with the Red Sox swinging the bats, Boston takes the edge in this one. The Sox should make Baltimore pay for it and come out on top to complete the sweep against their division rival.

Jim's Play: 913. Red Sox