4*LA Lakers +8

These are important games for the Lakers as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. The Lakers are ranked third in defense. Big rivalry and I believe this one will be closer than the line suggests.

4*Dallas Mavericks +3.5

The Mavericks shot 17.1% from three-point point land in Sunday's loss against Sacramento. That's their lowest percentage since 2018. The Miami Heat have shot over 50% from the field in three straight games. I like the road team in this spot!

4*LA Lakers +4

The Lakers have lost three in a row while the Nuggets have won nine of their past 10 games. The Lakers have the size to match-up against Denver. I know the Lakers are pissed off and want to end its losing streak tonight. Getting four points at home seems like a gift even if James sits out. 

5*Dallas Mavericks -5

The Mavericks have already defeated the Wizards in Washington (109-87) this season back in early April, easily covering the 6-point spread. The Wizards will be playing back-to-back to games (6-9 SU) and fifth game in seven days. Tough. Washington is coming off two wins where they shot over 50% from the field. Dallas is 12-4 in the past 16 meetings and I expect more of the same in this one. Take the Mavs! 

4*New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans are coming off a big win against the Clippers. They are playing for their playoff lives with 11 games remaining. New Orleans has already won at Denver this season when the Nuggets were at full strength. Denver is coming off two wins where they shot the lights out. Take the Pelicans!

4*LA Lakers +2

The Lakers dropped a tough one to the Mavs, committing 16 turnovers on Thursday. The Mavs will be playing their third game in four nights. The Lakers are 11-3 SU after allowing 115+ points this season. Frank Vogel has been excellent in same-season revenge games. Take the Lakers!

4*Sacramento Kings +2.5

The Wizards conclude their long road trip against a team that's desperate for a win. Wrong team favored. Take the hungry host!

4*USC +9

I think the Trojans match-up fairly well with the Zags. USC will be the toughest test for the undefeated juggernaut so far in the tourney. This should be a closer game than the line suggests so lets take the points. 

3*Syracuse +6.5

Houston has played one of the easiest schedules in all of College hoops. The Cougars haven't looked great in "big" games, and needed a huge rally midway thru the 2nd half against Rutgers. Syracuse is on a 6-0 ATS run, winning fives games outright. The Orange are 13-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. On the flip side, Houston is 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. My only concern is that the public is betting the Orange in a big way. Light play on the underdog!

4*Syracuse +4

The line has now inflated to where I think Syracuse is the right side. The 2-3 zone can be difficult to prepare for if you don't have a lot of time. Over the past five games, Syracuse has a +9.2 point differential while WV has a +2.6 point differential. The underdog is 4-1 ATS past five meetings. Take the points!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Grizzlies return home after dropping two straight on the road. Miami shot the lights out in yesterday's home victory. The Heat will playing its third game in four days and Jimmy Butler has a very sore ankle. I like the home team!

4*Memphis Grizzlies +3

The Grizzlies have a game in hand as they played and looked impressive on Wednesday. The Nuggets haven't played since winning at Indiana on March 4th. Denver is 0-2 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest this season. Memphis is as close to full strength as they have been all season. The Grizzlies are 24-11 ATS against the Northwest division over the past three seasons. Take the home underdog in this one!

4*Florida Atlantic +4

The Florida Atlantic Owls are riding a four game winning streak, and they're winning their last five games by an average of 8.8 points while shooting 46.2 percent from the field. This lined opened at -2 and has steamed up to this current number. I like the underdog!

4*Michigan State +8.5

The Spartans return home after getting crushed 69-50 against Michigan on Thursday. The Wolverines clinched the conference title and have nothing to play for. Michigan State shot 36.5% from the field and missed all nine 3-point attempts. Tom Izzo should have his troops ready for this rematch. It's a big game for the home team if they want to secure a spot in the Big Dance.

5*Loyola Marymount +2

The Lions are 2-0 against SF this season and will be playing with extra rest. ULM is 7-1 when playing with three or more days of rest this season. San Francisco has played four more games than the Lions including a win over San Diego on Thursday. I think the wrong team is favored. Take the points!

4*Indiana +3.5

The most recent time the two teams played, Rutgers posted a 74-70 victory on Jan. 24, winning at Assembly Hall for the first time in program history. Rutgers' Myles Johnson bottled up Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, holding the Hoosiers' top scorer to 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting from the field while forcing him into four turnovers. I like Indiana plus the points in the rematch.

5*Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

This will be the Suns' third game in four days after crushing New Orleans on Friday and whipping Memphis on Saturday. Phoenix covered the spread by a whopping 39 points combined. The Suns made a franchise-record 24 3-pointers in defeating the Grizzlies. They also held Memphis to just 97 points. It's really tough to sustain that type of defensive effort especially with short rest. Portland is coming off a 118-111 home loss to the Wizards. Damian Lillard shot 10-for-30 from the field. I like the road dog in this spot! 

4*Southern Illinois -1

The Salukis have been waiting for this game ever since the schedule came out. On Feb. 12th 2020, Valparaiso defeated Southern Illinois 55-38. The 38 points were a season and all-time school low. Valpo has a -6.3 point differential on the road while the Salukis have a +3.0 point differential at home. The Crusaders are 1-6 straight-up when playing with three days rest and 3-10 SU in road games. Southern Illinois is 28-14 SU when installed as a favorite over the past three seasons. I will swallow the 1 point with the home team in this spot. 

4*Duke +2 (+100)

I know that Virginia has not lost back-to-back games all season and on paper they should roll. Duke is playing much better and needs a signature win against a ranked opponent to have any chance at making the postseason. Athletically, the Blue Devils can match-up pretty well and are obviously well-coached. They have lost a lot of close games this season. I think they are on the improve. This seems like the trap line of the year so far. Take the hungry host!

3*New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

Both teams are coming off tough losses. This will be the first road game in 16 days for the Suns. The Pelicans played one of their best games in defeating Phoenix on that night. The Suns have a -0.3 point differential on the road while New Orleans has a +4.2 point differential at home. I just like how the Pelicans match-up with these Suns right now. Take the points!

4*Georgia +3.5

The Bulldogs are coming off a blowout loss allowing 115 points. Coach and team should learn from that non-effort. I think Georgia matches-up well against Missouri. Take the home dog!

5*Portland Trail Blazers +5

The Dallas Mavs scored a season-high 143 points (58.3% from the field) against the Pelicans. It marked the second straight game shooting over 50% from the field. They also shot 55.6% from 3-point land making 25 of 45. They also committed just six turnovers. I always look to fade NBA teams that scored 140 or more points. Dallas is 6-10 ATS after scoring 130+ points over the past three seasons, including 0-1 this year. Portland keeps this one close!

5*Michigan State +5

The Spartans lost to Iowa less than two weeks and head coach Tom Izzo has been great at same-season revenge games in his tremendous career. Michigan State is trying to climb back into the NCAAB Tournament picture and a win today would go a long way in achieving that. The Spartans are 8-2 at home allowing 66.4 points per game. Iowa is 3-4 on the road allowing 80.4 points per game. Take the home dog!

4*New Orleans Pelicans +3

Both teams are playing good ball having won four of their past five. The Pelicans should be super focused knowing the Mavericks won all four meetings last season. New Orleans is coming off a loss in which the Bulls made a franchise-record 25 3-pointers (in 47 attempts). Dallas overcame a 13-point third-quarter deficit, holding Atlanta to just 27 points on 9-of-22 shooting in the final quarter. New Orleans has a big edge in rebounds and I really like them in this spot. Take the road dog! 

4*George Tech +4

Virginia is coming off a lights out shooting performance from field and beyond the arch. Georgia Tech is averaging about five more points per game and should be pumped-up playing a ranked rival at home. Take the points!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103)

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24, which is notable, because the team that won the regular season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. Check this out! No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's O'line is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay's defensive line is ranked first while the Chiefs' defensive line is ranked 25th. Overall team defense, TB checks in fifth while KC is ranked 22nd. I can't ignore the fact that KC is ranked dead last in red zone defense, by a significant margin. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS when playing on a grass field while Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS on that same surface. Tom Brady knows how to win Super Bowls and we're getting 3 to 3.5 points at their home stadium. Take the hungry host!

3*Georgia Tech -3

Notre Dame is coming off two very impressive wins, shooting over 50% while covering the spread by a combined 45 points. Georgia Tech shot 32.4% from the field and just 66.7% from the free-throw stripe in losing at Louisville on Monday. The Fighting Irish are 7-34 straight-up as an underdog over the past three seasons. This is a great spot to back the home team!

3*Toronto Raptors +5

The Nets are coming off an emotional bounce-back effort (shot 57% from the field) against the Clippers after having previously lost to the lowly Wizards. New Jersey is 0-4 ATS after covering the spread of late. The Public is backing the Nets in a big way based on Toronto sweeping the Nets in the bubble last August. I will take the points with the more efficient defensive squad. The Nets have a big game against Philadelphia tomorrow. Light play on the road team!

4*Maryland -1

Purdue is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time this season. They are coming off a big win against Minnesota covering the spread by 16.5 points. Purdue does most of its damage on the road. Maryland should be pumped-up, playing a ranked opponent at home with extra rest. 

3*Buffalo -2

The Bulls are ranked first in total rebounds while the Bobcats are ranked 264th. Ohio is 9-22 SU on the road over the past three seasons and 0-3 SU after winning two in a row this year. Ohio is 0-3 SU off a win against a conference rival. I will swallow the two points with the home team.

4*Ohio State +5

The Buckeyes are coming off a really bad shooting performance from three-point land and the free throw line in a 67-65 loss vs. Purdue. Wisconsin is coming off its best defensive performance allowing just 52 points against Northwestern. Before that, they allowed 54 points in defeating Rutgers. This line seems inflated to me so I'm taking OSU plus the points.

4*LSU -1

Alabama is coming off a 31-point victory. LSU can match-up very well so I will swallow the 1-point with the home team.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+102)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus like no other in this game. They should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only 3 points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus -3 turnover margin in the first game and Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions in game two. The Saints held the Bears to a 10% conversion rate on 3rd down last week. I don't see that happening in this game. Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense especially with very little crowd noise to deal with. The Bucs have a +0.9 net yard differential while the Saints check in at +0.5. The Saints point differential is +9.2 while Tampa Bay checks in at +8.5. Finally, the Saints are ranked 29th in red-zone defense which is the second worst mark of all remaining playoff teams. Take Tampa Bay plus the points risking no juice.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-103)

I think the Ravens wanted to play the Titans after losing to them earlier this year in overtime (blew a 21-10 3rd quarter lead) and in last year's playoffs. Don't forget, Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that playoff game. The Titans also recovered three of their own three fumbles in that 28-12 victory. This is not the same Titans defense. A stop unit that is ranked 29th in total defense and 30th in sacks with just 19. On the flip side, the Ravens are ranked 9th in total defense and 13th in sacks with 39 according to Football Outsiders. Special teams really matters in the postseason. The Ravens are ranked 2nd while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Ravens net yard differential is +0.7 while Tennessee's is +0.3. The Titans pass defense is allowing 7.0 pass yards per attempt which ranks dead last of all the playoff teams. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in third-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd.

The Titans have played 7 games in 7 weeks, with Derrick Henry receiving a huge workload, to the tune of 34 carries and 250 rushing yards last week to surpass 2000 for the season. Tennessee never really had a normal BYE week due to Covid-19. The Ravens are a bit more fresh having played just 6 games in 7 weeks. The Titans went 1-3 SU since week eight when facing QB's with a QBR of 70 or above at the start of the game. Baltimore's point differential is +10.3 while the Titans are +3.2. I think this line should be 4.5 to 5. The Titans have cluster injuries on their offensive line with Saffold, Wilson, Sambralio, and Lewan likely out. I will swallow 3.5 points and take the better team with the hungry Ravens.

4*Richmond -4

The Spiders are coming off a loss in which they shot just 25% for 3-point land at home. Two home games ago, they shot 28% from downtown. They have played a much tougher schedule than Rhode Island and the Spiders average 34% from beyond the stripe. I think they will shoot better against a Rams' defense allowing close to 80 points in road games. Take the Spiders!

3*LA Rams +3 (+103)

The Rams will start John Wolford at QB and he's got some running ability. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defending mobile QB's this season. That have no game tape on him. Advantage Rams. Wolford has been in McVay's system for two years and Aaron Donald thinks he will play well after seeing his preparation and practice every day for over two years. The Rams are ranked 4th in third-down defense and 2nd in opponent passer rating. The Rams are ranked 2nd in penalties committed while the Cardinals are ranked 32nd. The Rams are 3-1 SU after two or more consecutive losses under McVay and they lost their last home game to the Jets as 17-point chalk. Arizona is 1-4 ATS against winning teams this season. I have herd rumblings that Kyler Murray and the head coach (Kingsbury) are butting heads. I'll take the points with the Rams in what amounts to a playoff game.

5*NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have a lot of seniors and this team is very excited for this opportunity. NC State owns the better stats, and they are ranked much higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. In fact, the Wildcats are allowing more yards than they gain. Red flag. Kentucky's four wins have come against teams that are a combined 8-31. NC State is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on grass fields while Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on that same surface this season. The Wolfpack have significant edges in the kicking game and red zone efficiency. Take the points in this upset maker!

5*Army +7.5

The Black Knights are seeking their third straight 10-win season in the Liberty Bowl. Army's offensive line is ranked 52nd while West Virginia's O'line is ranked 113th at Football Outsiders. On defense, Army is ranked 2nd overall. They also own the fifth-best defensive line in all of College Football. That's a great combo to have in a bowl game. There is a 75% chance for moderate to heavy rain which favors the team that runs the ball at a high level. West Virginia is ranked 120th in penalties (8.4 per game) while Army is ranked 24th (4.8) this season. The Mountaineers are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Army is a nifty 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in all bowl games. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Oklahoma +3

The Sooners have a Top 10 defensive line and the better overall defense. This line is too high. Oklahoma's passer rating against is ranked 20th while the Gators' passer rating against is ranked 93rd. This has been a strong angle in these Power 5 bowl games of late. Florida will be without All-American TE Kyle Pitts and his 700+ yards receiving with 12 TD's. There is also a lot of chatter that more Gators will be skipping this game. The Sooners lost their Bowl game 63-28 to LSU last season. Look for them to be pumped-up in what should amount to a home game. Take Oklahoma +3 and try a slice on the money line. (+150)  

10*Green Bay Packers -3

The Titans have scored 30+ points in five straight games and now must play their 4th road game in six weeks. The Titans have won and covered two in a row defeating cupcakes Detroit and Jacksonville. They now take a huge jump up in class. The Packers are motivated wanting a first round BYE and Green Bay scored just 3 points in the second half of last week's win over Carolina. Green Bay is ranked 9th in sacks (38) while Tennessee is ranked 32nd with just 14 QB take downs. Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball fairly easy against a not so good Titans' secondary. The Packers are ranked 18th in total defense while Tennessee is ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. Green Bay is ranked 10th in 3rd-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd. The Titans are ranked 29th in special teams and will have to play with a 50% chance of snow showers in the forecast. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 44 in games when the kick-off temp is below 40 degrees. The Titans converted 81.8% on 3rd down last week. These teams are fade bait the very next week especially against a quality opponent. The Packers are 19-9 SU and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. I love the cheese heads in this one!

4*Denver Broncos +6

The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in five straight games, including last Sunday's (night) thrilling win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a big division game on deck against New England. The Broncos are a sneaky good team ranking #1 in red-zone defense. Drew Lock is coming off his best performance of his career throwing 4 TD's at Carolina. I think he can ride that momentum into this contest. The Bills have played just three games on grass this season going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Broncos are 6-3 ATS on that same surface and 7-2 ATS against the AFC. Take the home dog!

4*Oregon +3.5

USC is coming off an emotional comeback victory against cross-town rival UCLA. The Trojans were outgained by 105 yards. I love playing on College football underdogs with the significantly better offensive line. Oregon's offensive line is ranked 31 while USC is ranked 105 by Football Outsiders. Oregon is averaging 7.3 yards per play while USC is averaging 5.8 this season. On defense, the Ducks are allowing 5.7 yards per play while USC allows 5.8. That means Oregon has a +1.6 yards per play while USC is even. The Trojans are likely to be without their top running back (knee injury) and they have trouble gaining yards on the ground to begin with. The Ducks are 5-0 SU after a BYE week over the past three seasons. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

4*LA Chargers +2.5

The Falcons are coming off a revenge game against New Orleans having played them two weeks prior. Atlanta's next three games are against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay again. Seems like a flat spot especially since the LA Chargers are coming off their worse loss (45-0) in franchise history. The Falcons committed just one penalty last week. I don't see that happening again. The Falcons' defense was on the field for 75 plays against New Orleans. They now must fly out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 19th. Atlanta likes to throw the ball a lot which is LAC's strength. The Chargers are ranked 6th, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Falcons are ranked 30th, allowing 285 passing yards per game. The Chargers are ranked 13th in red-zone defense while Atlanta is ranked 30th in that same category. The Chargers are allowing 5.5 yards per play (15th) on defense while the Falcons are allowing 6.2 (tied for last). I would expect a much better effort for the home team from what we witnessed against the Patriots. Take the points!  

5*Cleveland Browns +6

The Titans are coming off an emotional revenge blowout win against the Colts. They were all in having lost two weeks prior. To show you how focused the Titans were last week check this out. Tennessee is ranked 16th in opponent yards per rush (4.3), however last week they allowed just 2.7 yards per rush against a solid rushing and well-coached team. The Browns are ranked 19th in team defense while the Titans are ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. The Titans are ranked 29th in QB sacks (14) while the Browns are ranked 12th in sacks (27) this season. Tennessee is ranked #32 in third-down defense. A big reason why they are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The Titans have eight wins and the combined record of those eight teams is 40-47. Finally, last season in week 1 the Titans put a whipping on Cleveland 43-13 as 5.5-point road underdogs. Tennessee covered the spread by 35.5 points. The Browns actually outgained Tennessee 346-339. Baker Mayfield had 3 interceptions. The Browns have a much better coach and scheme this season. Take the road dog in this revenge spot!

5*Arkansas +3.5

Arkansas has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after dropping a 10-point decision last season. This year, the Razorbacks have a real QB. Feleipe Franks is completing 68% of his passes with a 17-4 TD to interception ratio. Missouri is coming off a 41-0 shellacking against Vanderbilt. The Tigers committed just 1 penalty for the entire game. That won't happen again. Missouri is 4-5 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins since 2018. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS L4 off a loss against a conference rival. Missouri is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in December games since 1993. Arkansas has the better offensive line ranking #69 while the Tigers are ranked #105 at Football Outsiders. Arkansas has a +0.6 yard differential while Missouri is just +0.1. Overall, the Razorbacks are ranked 48th while Missouri is ranked 67th at FO. This will be the Razorbacks last regular season game of the year while Missouri plays Vanderbilt again next week. Take the road dog!

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

The 49ers have two weeks to prepare against a division rival while the Rams will be playing on a short week after an upset win on MNF. A lot of bettors will take the Rams saying they have revenge. I'm not. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach and has been great as an underdog in the division. I think this line is too high in my opinion. Should be closer to 5.5 points. Don't forget, the 49ers are ranked 7th in third-down defense which is key in covering spreads. San Francisco has some Covid concerns but will get some talented players back as well. Take the points!

4*Atlanta Falcons +5

The Falcons are very familiar with Jameis Winston at the QB position after spending his entire career with Tampa Bay. I always like getting points with the more efficient QB. Matt Ryan is ranked #6 in QBR (78.1) this season. Atlanta has two weeks to prepare for this division game. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite of any kind. The Saints defeated SF 27-13 last week while getting outgained by 44 yards. SF also had a 21-17 edge in first downs. The 49ers committed 4 turnovers otherwise it would have been a different result. Atlanta is ranked 8th in third-down defense while the Saints are ranked 22nd. Lets take the points in this upset maker. 

4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams -1

Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Dolphins 28-17 despite outgaining the fish by 326 yards. The Rams have allowed just 10 sacks while Seattle has allowed 24 sacks. The Rams are ranked #1 in opponent yards per play (4.7) while Seattle is ranked #28 (6.2) this season. The Rams are ranked 3rd in third-down defense while Seattle checks in at #24. The Rams are ranked 10th in third-down offense while Seattle is ranked 30th, which is quite surprising. LAR has outgained the Seahawks in the past six meetings going 4-2 SU during that span. The Rams are ranked #5 (84.2) in passer rating against while Seattle is ranked #23 (98.2). Seattle is not the same on offense without Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Both are out again. They also have an injury list longer than my recent CVS receipt. In this division game, take the home team with the far superior defense and two weeks to prepare. 

5*Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Arizona dropped a tough one last week 34-31 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 130 yards. The Cardinals have scored 30+ points in four straight games. Buffalo is coming off its biggest win of the season and must now travel out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 13th. The Bills also lost two key offensive lineman in that big win. The Cardinals own the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. Arizona is ranked 7th in third-down defense while the Bills are ranked 23rd. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in passer rating against while the Bills are ranked 20th. Arizona is ranked 10th in total defense while the Bills are ranked 17th at Football Outsiders. I like the Cardinals to bounce back at home against a Bills' team off an emotional victory. 

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The Dolphins are coming off a phony victory against the Rams. LA outgained Miami 471-145 and had 31 first downs compared to just 8 for the Dolphins. The Rams ran 92 plays and Miami must face an offense ranked 3rd in yards per game (424.6). Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. Tough spot for the Dolphins defense. Tua needs more time (reps) and his first road start against a rested well-prepared team does not bode well. The Cardinals are 7-3 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. This squad seems to be on a mission right now. Both teams are in the top 5 in third down defense, however Arizona is ranked 13th in third down offense, while Miami checks in at 29th. The Dolphins' offensive line and defensive line are both ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. Miami is 3-10 SU in games played on artificial/field turf of late. Lay it!

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+105)

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing setback at the hands of the KC Chiefs. I believe the 43 points were the most allowed by a team coached (Head, Defense) by Vic Fangio. Also, draw a line in Drew Lock's performance as he's never played well in the snow. It will be a much nicer day in Denver with temps in the low 60s. Actually, the Broncos outgained KC  411-286, but committed 4 turnovers. Denver ran 76 plays while the Chiefs ran just 51. Denver's defense should be relatively fresh. The Broncos are ranked 4th in third down defense in all of football. The Chargers ran 77 plays on offense in beating Jacksonville and now must play a pissed off Broncos team at high altitude. Tough. Finally, The Broncos have a passer rating against of 78.2 while the Chargers have a passer rating against of 100.1. Take the Broncos plus the generous 3 points with plus juice.  

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

10*Carolina Panthers +7.5

Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining Chicago by 42 yards. Carolina is averaging 6.0 yards per play while the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per play. On defense, Carolina is allowing 5.5 yards per play while New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Saints swept the Panthers last season, although Carolina did cover a 7-point spread rather easily in New Orleans. That was "back in the day" when stadiums would be packed with fans. This game will have no fans and this spread is way too high. I have it at 6 so we are getting 1.5 points of value. Carolina has a really good coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The new scheme on offense with Mike Davis at RB has been confusing opponents. Here's what I really like about this matchup and current line. Carolina's defense is holding opposing QB's to a 86.2 passer rating which ranks 6th. On the flip side, New Orleans is allowing a 108.2 passer rating against which ranks 29th. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the past five meeting. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the past three years. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host! 

10*Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State returns home after a blowout loss in which they scored just two points. It was very misleading as they outgained Kentucky by 138 yards, but committed 6 turnovers. Mississippi State has outgained all three foes by a combined 470 yards this season. Texas A&M is coming off their first home win over a Top 5 ranked team since 2002. The Bulldogs are +1.2 in net yard differential while the Aggies are -0.1. Mississippi State is allowing 4.0 yards per play which ranks 5th in the nation. Texas A&M is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play. Mike Leach called out his team for that sloppy performance last week. The Aggies beat Mississippi State 49-30 last year while outgaining the Bulldogs by just 8 yards. The difference was a -3 turnover ratio for Mississippi State. Texas A&M defeated Vanderbilt by only 5 points as 31-point chalk earlier this season. Take the Bulldogs in this upset maker!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

I would normally look to play on teams that just fired their head coach. Most of the time those teams are underdogs. I don't think this Houston team is happy about the change. Romeo Crennel is 28-55 SU as a head coach in his career. The Jaguars have the better offensive and defensive lines according to Football Outsiders. I'm taking the points with the road team.

5*Syracuse +2.5

My power rating in this game has the home team as 1-point chalk. I think the Orange have the better offense and defense. Don't forget Syracuse defeated Duke last year by a wide margin as 9-point road underdogs. No revenge here. I think Syracuse is the smart side in this one!

5*Miami Dolphins +7

The Dolphins will have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Seattle is coming off two emotional prime-time victories and now must travel East for the second time this season. The Seahawks have been outgained in every game this season despite winning three one-possession games. Seattle has a long injury list to key players. They won't be 100% even if they play in the heat and humidity that is South Florida. Seattle is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so far this season. Playing against these teams in week four would make you a lot of money. Russell Wilson has a QBR of 86.2. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 81. Take the Dolphins plus the points in this upset maker!

4*LA Lakers -4.5

The Lakers played a tougher schedule and had the much better road record. They also possess two of the Top 5 players in all of basketball right now. The Heat are a younger team in terms of postseason experience. I think the Lakers are the right side in game one.

4*Carolina Panthers +6.5

The Panthers are hungry for a win knowing they have dropped 10 straight games dating back to last season. Carolina played well in last week's setback outgaining TB 427-339. Four turnovers did not help. Teams usually are fired-up in the very next game after a star player (Christian Mccaffrey) gets hurt. The best handicap is the fact LAC just played an emotional OT game against a division rival. The Chargers ran 79 plays on offense while the defense allowed KC to run 70 plays. Tough. Head coach Anthony Lynn said "Justin Herbert was the backup for a reason". I would expect some growing pains in this game. Sure seems like a letdown spot to me. To back that up, the Chargers are 1-4-0 ATS in games after playing the KC Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under center (2017-2019). Last year, they played in week 17 which explains only 5 games with no pushes. Take the Panthers plus the points in this upset maker!

3*New York Giants +4

I like the Giants at home even without RB Barkley. I actually think their offense will be better for at least one game. The 49ers have numerous injuries including QB Jimmy G. Backup Nick Mullins has not had much practice time. Take the home dog!

3*LA Lakers -6.5

The Lakers didn't play well in game two evident by 23 turnovers for the game. I think the Nuggets are deflated after blowing that victory. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS after a close win (1-4 points) while the Nuggets are 3-5-1 ATS after a close loss. The Lakers are super focused and should win by margin tonight.

4*Miami Dolphins +6

The Dolphins return home after allowing 217 rushing yards against the Patriots with a minus -3 turnover differential. Still, it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. This team is well-coached and I would expect a much better effort. Buffalo defeated Miami in both games last season and should be pumped-up at home. Speaking of home, the Bills will have to play in the heat & humidity that is South Florida, with an expected heat index of 100-104 throughout the game. This will be a factor because the Bills ran a league-high 81 plays on offense last week against the Jets, while possessing the ball for 41:17. Both those numbers are insanely high. There is also a 55% chance of thunderstorms. Take the Dolphins plus the points!

3*Boston Celtics -1.5

Miami has had a relatively easy journey in these playoffs while the Celtics are battle tested. The Heat have not played since 9/8/20. Advantage Boston in this first game. Lay it!

5*Arizona Cardinals +7

The 49ers are a tad overrated in my opinion while the Cardinals are a tad underrated. Arizona looks improved on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons all over the field. San Francisco has to deal with the Super Bowl loser hangover. Tough. They are really "nicked" up to start the season with a long injury list. This is another division underdog in week one that looks solid.

4*Washington Football Team +6

Washington should be improved on defense with Ron Rivera taking over. This team sports 5 first-round picks on the D-line. In week one, you want to take NFL underdogs that missed the playoffs against playoff teams from the previous year. It's one of the best angles in all of sports! Also, I like playing division dogs in the opening week. Take Washington plus the points.

3*Toronto Raptors +3 (+100)

The Raptors shot just 13 free throws in their game five debacle. I would expect the defending world champs to play with a "chip" on its shoulder to force a game seven. Take the Raptors!

10*Denver Nuggets +3

The Jazz have won two in a row while shooting the lights out. Utah shot 51.7% and 51.2% from the field respectively. The Jazz also shot close to 49% from 3-point land on Friday. Denver committed a bubble-high 17 turnovers and should benefit from the return of Gary Harris Jr. The Nuggets are ranked #1 in assist/turnover margin and these teams rarely drop three games in a row in the postseason. I'm all over the Nuggets in this spot!

4*Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

Oklahoma City does have a modest history on its side in terms of a potential Game 3 turnaround. The Thunder have won Game 3 in each of the five previous instances in which they fell into an 0-2 series hole, even rallying to take the 2012 Western Conference Finals against San Antonio. The Thunder are also 9-2 SU after a loss of 10 points or more this season. Take the Thunder in this must win game!

5*Dallas Mavs +5.5

The Mavs have already defeated the Bucks earlier this season in Milwaukee. The Bucs shot over 50% in their last game while the Mavs allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% in their last game. Take the Mavs plus the points.

3*Indiana Pacers +1.5

5*Dallas Mavericks +3

The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses in their past 7 games. Denver is coming off a victory against the short-handed Bucks. Dallas is coming off two straight losses after two straight victories. The Mavs are currently in the 7th spot out West. Denver plays much better at home as their 0.0 point differential shows. Dallas plays well at home sporting a +6.0 point differential. Both teams won on the road in the previous two meetings, with both games decided by a combined 4 points. I like the Mavs in this spot!

5*LA Lakers -1

Giannis made a career high five 3-pointers in the first meeting which the Bucks won. Bench players play better at home. I love the Lakers in this rematch. I know they really want to avenge its loss at Milwaukee. The Bucks are leaking oil as they got crushed by Miami and fell behind Indiana by 24 points before making a comeback. Take the hungry host!

5*Notre Dame +2

The Fighting Irish match-up pretty well with this FSU squad as the Seminoles won 85-84 earlier this year. Notre Dame is coming off a poor effort in which head coach Mike Brey called out his team for its performance. The Fighting Irish are 9-1 at home after a loss this season and rank #1 in Assist/Turnover ratio in the nation. Take the hungry host!

4*Toledo Rockets -2.5

The Rockets have the much better stats and they are playing at home. Ball State is a flawed team. Take the hungry host!

4*Oklahoma +2.5

Texas Tech is coming off an 87-57 victory against Iowa State, covering the spread by +25 points.The Sooners have lost three straight and played Texas Tech close in the first meeting. Huge game for Oklahoma. This game will be played in an NBA arena (OKC Thunder) and really like the home team in this spot!

5*Portland T-Blazers -4.5

Detroit traded away former franchise center Andre Drummond prior to the All-Star break and reached a buyout agreement with veteran point guard Reggie Jackson during the break, leaving Derrick Rose, John Henson, Tony Snell and Langston Galloway as the only healthy veterans drawing regular minutes. They also released (buyout) Markief Morris (LA Lakers) and some size for rim protection. The Pistons are in full tank mode while Portland comes in off a poor defensive effort at home. Swallow the 4.5 points. Take the hungry host!

5*Memphis +2.5

Huge game for Memphis as they gout ousted by Houston in last year's AAC tournament. The game was real close. Houston is coming off a 76-43 victory with an ATS margin of 22.5 points. They are in a real letdown spot. I know this game means more for the home team. Take the points!

5*Oklahoma City Thunder -1

The Thunder were just 11-14 after losing at Denver 110-102 in December. They have since gone 22-8, having won 10 of 13 before the break. This is a completely different team schematically and the Nuggets won't be able to adjust tonight. Take the home team! 

5*St. John's +2.5

I have this game closer to pick em so let's take the generous 2.5 points. A Red Storm outright win would not shock me. Take the underdog!

4*SMU +2

3*Golden State Warriors +7.5

5*Indiana U -1.5

The Hoosiers have dropped three straight and should be super focused at home in this spot. Purdue defeated Iowa 104-68 on Wednesday. The 36-point victory was the largest in school history over a ranked opponent. Purdue shot 63.1% from the field and 55.9% from 3-point land. Purdue covered the spread by +31.5 points. Classic fade bait. How much energy can Purdue put out considering they are 2-6 on the road this season. Also, the road team is just 3-3 SU when playing with two days of rest this season. The Hoosiers are 9-4 SU when playing with three or more days of rest. Take the hungry host!

5*DePaul +1

Xavier is coming off it's biggest win of their season against Seton Hall on Saturday shooting over 50%. DePaul has a talented team and really needs a victory. DePaul has played better than their conference record suggests. They rank high in rim protection and will be pumped-up at home. Like them here.

4*Pennsylvania +1.5

5*Portland T-Blazers +2

Seems like a great sport for Portland as they've been off for two days while the Rockets will be playing it's third game in four days. I like Portland!

4*Northern Illinois -3.5

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

4*Indiana -2

5*Memphis Tigers -3.5

Memphis returns home off a 40-point loss shooting 28.6% and just 9% from downtown. All season lows. It's the worst loss by a ranked team against an unranked opponent since 1993. I would expect a huge bounce back effort against a division rival.

10*Arkansas State +2.5

This will be the first road game for South Alabama in 12 days. This is also a big revenge game for the Red Wolves as they committed 18 turnovers in a loss earlier this month. In that game, South Alabama shot 35 free throws (making 25) compared to just 13 attempts for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves should be super focused at home in a big revenge spot. The Red Wolves are 6-2 SU against winning teams this season and 13-5 ATS overall. They are undervalued in this spot. The Jaguars are 7-26 SU on the road over the past three seasons. The home team is 6-1 ATS past seven meetings. I'll take the home underdog!

4*Temple +2.5

4*Georgetown +4.5

4*LSU -2.5

4*Washington Wizards +4.5