842 Tarleton State at Weber State

This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. 

Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host.

PLAY WEBER STATE

816 Western Kentucky at Marshall

Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. 

Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday.

PLAY MARSHALL

852 Bowling Green at Buffalo

The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. 

Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise.

PLAY BUFFALO

718 Stanford at Utah

The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back.

Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right.

PLAY UTAH

536 Utah at Cleveland

Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. 

Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again.

PLAY UNDER

518 Memphis at Cleveland

Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. 

Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court.

PLAY UNDER

550 Oklahoma City at New York

The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. 

New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate.

Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets.

PLAY NEW YORK

740 UNLV at Colorado State

Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage.

Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason.

PLAY COLORADO STATE

673 Virginia Tech at Louisville

Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. 

Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest.

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

575 Cleveland at Orlando

The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. 

We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. 

Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus.

PLAY CLEVELAND

867 Southern Illinois at Drake

Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis.

Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible.

Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. 

737 Michigan at Maryland

The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. 

Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad.

PLAY MICHIGAN

560 New York at Cleveland

Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. 

Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved.

PLAY CLEVELAND

833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa

Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. 

Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points.

PLAY MISSOURI STATE

530 Philadelphia at Cleveland

Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. 

The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home.

PLAY CLEVELAND

752 Wisconsin at Michigan State

The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. 

Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair.

PLAY UNDER

551 Charlotte at Cleveland

The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. 

Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

673 North Carolina at NC State

The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. 

The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

855 UMKC at Minnesota

Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog.

Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. 

PLAY UMKC

637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley

The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. 

Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH

623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville

The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. 

Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers.

PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS

656 Rider at Syracuse

The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete.

Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid.

PLAY SYRACUSE

765 UTSA at Oklahoma

The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. 

Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. 

PLAY OVER

751 Connecticut & USC

Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated.

PLAY CONNECTICUT

307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State

The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad.

Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch.

PLAY ARIZONA STATE

747 Denver and Utah

The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight.

PLAY DENVER

883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas

The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. 

The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close.

PLAY BOISE STATE

533 Cleveland at New Orleans

Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season.

The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host.

PLAY CLEVELAND

502 Philadelphia at Cleveland

The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March.

Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road.

PLAY CLEVELAND

873 Louisville at Florida State

The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. 

Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly

The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation.

The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road.

PLAY CAL POLY

803 Texas A&M at Alabama

Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. 

Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. 

PLAY TEXAS A&M

526 Portland at Utah

The Blazers are playing great ball right now winning 5 of 6 including a 124-107 home win over these Jazz. But Portland is playing its second game of a back to back and third game in four days. To make matters worse they played the first game in altitude at Denver, flew home to host the Spurs, and now play unrested in altitude again. The Blazers are just 2-6 ATS playing in Utah.

Unlike the Blazers the Jazz are really struggling right now having lost five straight games, including two straight on this normally strong home court. Utah is well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Jazz are the better team desperate for a win while Portland is in a terrible scheduling situation. There is a reason why this line seems high, because it should be even higher.

PLAY UTAH

506 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

The Sixers will be shorthanded tonight as the trade assets will be out of the lineup. In the only other meeting this season Philadelphia pounded the Bucks 121-109 on Christmas Day. 

Milwaukee was a virtual no show in that nationally televised game. So we expect the Bucks to have this game circled. This is the only game in a three game span for the host, while Philadelphia hosts Memphis tomorrow. If the Sixers fall behind early with this limited bench, look for Philadelphia to raise the white flag late.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

632 Xavier at DePaul

The Musketeers had been cruising to an 11-2 record before Big East play. Now with the tougher schedule Xavier has dropped 5 of its last 7. The Saturday win at Seton Hall was just the second straight up road win of the season. While Xavier’s defense has traveled well this team ranks 289th in the nation in three point accuracy. That and a 319th ranked free throw percentage will likely come in to play here.

Very similar to Xavier, DePaul feasted on non-conference competition, but sits at 1-8 in Big East play. But only two of those defeats came by double digits. This is a team on a four game losing streak that has road trips to Georgetown and Creighton on deck. This is a must win game for the host, and we expect its best effort of the conference season.

PLAY DEPAUL

861 North Carolina at Florida State

Now that the Tar Heels are getting healthy we want to look to back North Carolina in these type of situations. While the Tar Heels have gotten better, the wins haven’t come around. Two overtime losses and a one point loss to Boston College last time out keep this team out of the press. But that gives us plenty of value here against a #5 rated team we have ranked 20th. 

While Florida State is 9-3 SU against top 100 opposition, wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 1 point. This is a team that is getting favorable bounces going 7-2 in close games. The Tar Heels have the talent to take this to the wire.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

516 Minnesota at LA Clippers

The Timberwolves are on a ten game losing streak with 5 of the last 6 losses coming at home. This is a team that started the season well but has had separate 10 and 11 game losing streaks since December. Minnesota is 1-15 SU on the season vs top 10 opponents.

The Clippers are coming off an embarrassing showing in a 21 point home loss to the Kings. After the game the players were very testy with the media, so we would expect a solid showing. LA is also 22-7 ATS off a SU loss. Lay it!

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

513 Portland at LA Lakers

The Blazers are playing a faster pace as of late with 20.4 more points the last five than the season average. Offensively the Blazers have scored 125, 139, 125 and 129 the last four outings. In two previous meetings these two combined for 249 and 248. 

The Lakers had its lowest scoring output of the season last time out in a 108-91 loss to Philadelphia. With tonight being a celebration of Kobe, I would expect this game to be played free and easy. Tonight will be a spectacle and we expect a lot of scoring.

PLAY OVER

847 Baylor at Iowa State

Surprised this number is available considering how dominant the Bears have been on the road. Undefeated on true road courts this season, and no lookahead with TCU at home on Saturday. Baylor beat Iowa State at home 68-55 just two weeks ago. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is dominant on the offensive boards at 5th in the country. 

Iowa State has already lost three times at home this season, including a defeat to Florida A&M. This squad has also lost 6 of 8 overall with the wins coming against the Oklahoma schools. While the offense is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the defense ranks 140th. The Cyclones are 291st keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. That is the telling stat here as the Bears should dominate down low offensively. This is a cheap number.

PLAY BAYLOR

862 St Peters at Rider

The Peacocks have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but blew out Quinnipiac on the road last Saturday. Now 3-6 SU on the road this season. Saint Peter’s is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 8th in the country. But very weak offensively at 331st in effective field goal percentage, and bad holding onto the ball at 348th. 

The Broncs of Rider have lost 6 of 8 and sit at 3-4 in conference. This looks like a must win game for the host. Rider is 4-1 SU at home this year with the lone loss being the last time it played at Alumni Gymnasium. While St Peter’s is great in offensive rebounding, that plays directly into what Rider does best, hit the glass. The Broncs are 60th in offensive rebounding, and 8th in the country keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Rider is also extremely good getting to the line and keeping opponents from getting to the strike. We look for Rider to take advantage of a solid home court here and get back in the win column.

PLAY RIDER

782 Georgetown at Xavier

Hoyas have dropped 4 of 6 lately, along with three straight on the road. Georgetown ranks 288th defending the three, which is always a concern on the road.

At 1-4 in conference and off three straight losses, you know you will get a full effort from the host. Really like this defense which ranks 38th defending the three, and 68th against 2 point attempts. We expect this Xavier defense to clamp down and get this team back in the win column.

PLAY XAVIER

519 LA Lakers at Boston

Lakers enter play having won 10 of 11. Only loss was a one point defeat at the hands of the Magic. LA is rested having only played once the past four days.

The Celtics have not only lost 6 of 8, but have held the majority lead in 3 of those contests. On the season Boston has lead for the majority of games 25 times, so you can tell this team is struggling right now. 

PLAY LA LAKERS

510 Chicago at Milwaukee

The Bulls have lost all three meetings with the Bucks this season. And it makes all the sense in the world. Chicago is a young team that finds was to lose, while the Bucks find ways to win. We like the talent on this Chicago roster, but until it plays much more consistently it’s hard to back.

Milwaukee has not only won its last six games, but have held an average of a double digit lead in five straight. And still the coaching staff complained about its lack of discipline in giving away big leads. That won’t be the case here, especially with the next three days off.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

807 Utah at Arizona

The Utes have lost 4 of its last 5 games. But those contests were against San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado and Arizona, all top 20 programs. Now the Utes step down in class to take on an Arizona State team we rank 94th in the nation. Utah is 36th in the country in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in defensive free throw rating. This is a quality team despite the overall record.

Arizona State has yet to beat a team in the top 55, so we can’t see this team pulling away from Utah. Especially considering its the 297th shooting 3 point percentage unit.

PLAY UTAH

770 Indiana at Nebraska

The Hoosiers have dropped 3 of its last 5 and sit at 3-3 in league play. Indiana is also winless on the road this season dropping all three contests. This club is 307th in the country in 3 point shooting, which makes it tough to lay a number with on the road.

Nebraska is 7th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, so the Hoosiers will not get many easy baskets. At 2-4 in conference this is a must win game for the Huskers with trips to Wisconsin and Rutgers on deck.

PLAY NEBRASKA

677 Nebraska Omaha at Denver

Omaha is a team that lives and dies by the perimeter. Ranking 68th in 3 point shooting and 301st in defending the three. This club is 3-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming last time out at South Dakota, a 91-81 defeat. While many will look at the 1-8 SU record on the road. A closer look sees that this team has been extremely tested playing at Wichita State, Dayton, St Mary’s and Arizona.

Denver at 4-15 is a bad basketball team. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Ranking 339th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 350th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a get right game for the visitor.

PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA

620 Detroit at Green Bay

The Titans have just one road victory on the season. That win came on Thursday as Detroit beat Milwaukee 90-84. This is a club that ranks badly in just about every individual category. Including 312th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 320th in offensive effective field goal percentage. 

Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation. It’s also a very good shooting team at 46th in 3 point accuracy. We look for the Phoenix to use their solid free throw shooting to extend a second half lead.

PLAY GREEN BAY

859 Furman at Wofford

Big fan of this Furman offense which ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers but doesn’t turn the ball over themselves. This club dominates in the paint ranking 5th in the nation in 2 point shooting percentage.

Wofford has a solid home court advantage, but ranks 300th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Going up against this Furman offense won’t be easy. The host also struggles to get to the line ranking 318th, so late game foul shots may not be there in a close game.

PLAY FURMAN

637 Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago

The visitor has really struggled on the road this season, but that said this line is extremely high. Coming off a blowout loss at Bradley, we find great value on the underdog here.

At 7-2 SU at home and coming off a 34 point domination of Evansville, this line is extremely inflated. Value play on the dog here.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

504 Detroit at Boston

Want no part of the Pistons right now who have dropped 12 of 15 ATS as of late. The team has only held the majority lead against the weaklings of Washington, Golden State and Cleveland. 

Boston has righted the ship with back to back solid wins, and have a trip to Milwaukee on deck. That may normally mean a lookahead, but we like this deep Boston squad.

PLAY BOSTON

633 DePaul at Villanova

The Blue Demons have started conference play 0-3. But have solid wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech on the season. Defense travels and this Dave Leitao team is highly ranked in that regard.

Villanove is 12-3 and looks solid once again, but this club doesn’t win by margins. Overall 4 of the last 5 wins have come by margins of 5, 6, 1 and 8 points. DePaul has the ability to slow down this Wildcat offense.

PLAY DEPAUL

848 Arizona at Oregon State

The Wildcats started the year impressively with 9 straight victories, including wins over Illinois and New Mexico State. But Arizona has struggled as of late dropping 4 of its last 6 games. They are just 2-4 against top 100 opposition. This club is also winless on the road after dropping an overtime decision at Oregon on Thursday.

Oregon State has one home loss this season, last time out against Arizona State. With a 1-2 conference record and a trip to Washington on deck, this is a must have game for the host. The Beavers are a terrific offensive team that ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. We look for the host to pull the upset.

PLAY OREGON STATE

761 Kansas State at Texas

This Kansas State defense travels. Ranking 40th in adjusted Efficiency, and 15th in defensive turnover percentage. This is a winless team in conference action.

We just can’t trust Texas in the roll of a favorite. Especially in late game situations. The Longhorns are 314th in the country in free throw shooting, and 342nd drawing fouls. Texas is 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. 

PLAY KANSAS STATE

784 Chicago State at UT Rio Grande Valley

When you are a child your parents always tell you, if you can’t say something good about someone, don’t say anything. Well, Chicago state is 48th in the country in getting to the line and 71st in free throw percentage. So there you go.

Grand Valley is 5-10 on the season and are a large favorite here. But this club has played nine teams rated in the top 200 in the country. The host has only lost once on this floor all season. While the records are somewhat similar, the talent advantage is sizable.

PLAY UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

744 Texas Tech at West Virginia

The Red Raiders have just two wins all season against top 100 opposition. They are also winless on the road this year as this is only the second true road game of the season for Texas Tech.

West Virginia is undefeated at home with every game being decided by 5 points or more. This is also the first home game for the Mountaineers on four weeks, so we should get a really fired up crowd.

PLAY WEST VIRGINIA

659 Oakland at Cleveland State

Oakland has dropped 7 of 8 but really step down in class against the Vikings. It beat a similar Detroit team by 9 in late December.

Cleveland State is 3-1 in conference but have feasted on the other bottom tier teams in the league. Cleveland State is just 4-3 at home and ranks in the 330th range in all offensive categories.

PLAY OAKLAND

640 UL Monroe at Georgia State

Monroe has been terrible on the road with an 0-6 mark. The closest contest was a six point loss at Texas A&M. This squad struggles turning the ball over ranking 311th in the country. ULM is a good shooting team fro the perimeter but that’s something that hasn’t helped them on the road.

Georgia State is not only great from 3 point range at 12th in the nation, but are 24th in defending from the perimeter. On an undefeated home court we look for a blowout.

PLAY GEORGIA STATE

604 DePaul at St Johns

DePaul has the better record, but the host is the better team. The Blue Demons feasted on questionable competition in the non-conference season. 

Mike Anderson’s squad specializes in taking care of the ball. Ranking 27th in not turning the ball over, and 22nd in forcing turnovers. This is also a team in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Starting the conference season at 0-3 this becomes a very important game for the host. Let’s lay the small  number with St Johns.

PLAY ST JOHNS

833 Wright State at IUPUI

Wright State takes good care of the ball and is a solid offensive rebounding team. This club is unedited in true road games this season.

The host has really struggled this year when stepping up in class. Against top 11 opposition this team has lost to Butler by 33, Bradley by 34, Loyola Chicago by 23 and Ball State by 48. 

PLAY WRIGHT STATE

654 Baylor at Texas Tech

The Bears are 11-1 on the season and have run off 10 straight winners. But it’s time to really see what Baylor is made of with back to back games against Texas Tech and Kansas. This is also the first true road game of the season for the Bears.

The Red Raiders dropped three in a row earlier, with two coming in overtime. But this club gets better as the season goes on and we love the Texas Tech coaching staff. After already playing three top 30 teams, we expect the Red Raiders to be primed. 

PLAY TEXAS TECH 

854 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina

Simply can’t trust Monroe to score enough away from home. On the season this team has produced 57, 59, 45 and 36 points away from home. Too many turnovers and a poor offensive efficiency has led to this 6-7 overall record.

Coastal ranks 10th in the country in 3 point percentage and is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Let’s lay it with the host.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

509 Indiana at Atlanta

Pacers have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but trips to Atlanta and Charlotte should get this team right. Indiana is rested while Atlanta played yesterday in Boston. The Hawks have only covered once in a back to back situation this year, with more results ending in blowouts. With Collins expected out of the lineup for Atlanta tonight, we will back the Pacers to get back on track.

PLAY INDIANA

514 San Antonio at Memphis

Wrong team favored in our opinion as the Spurs have struggled on the road all season. Both teams are playing its third game in four days. Memphis already won in San Antonio earlier in the season. Grizzlies have finished with the average lead in 5 of 7 games overall. Memphis is playing the much better ball.

PLAY MEMPHIS

562 Atlanta at Brooklyn

The Hawks played a tough game against the Jazz on Thursday in a 111-106 loss. But that has been the exception for Atlanta as of late as this team simply doesn’t have the talent to compete on an everyday basis in this league.

The Nets dominated the Spurs for three quarters on Thursday, only to fall apart late. The average lead in that game was Brooklyn by 3.7 points. With a day off and not another game until next Thursday we expect the Nets to take out some frustrations tonight.

PLAY BROOKLYN

544 Washington at Toronto

Surprised by the low line here as we have Toronto rated much higher than the Wizards. While Washington has played well on the road, Toronto has dominated at home. The rest in this game is equal, so that isn’t a factor. This line suggests on a neutral court Toronto would be only a 2 1/2 point favorite. That’s simply not correct. We lay the bargain price in this one as we have the Raptors winning by 10.

PLAY TORONTO

551 Brooklyn at Toronto

The Nets are playing terrific ball right now, even better than the 8-3 record as of late. This is a team that has held the lead in the majority of 10 of those 11 games. The Nets are also well rested having played just once in the past five days.

The Raptors are off that big showdown with the Clippers and Leonard. It’s also rested having the last two days off. But Toronto has dropped 4 of 5 as of late as the team is now starting to play towards its talent level. 

PLAY BROOKLYN

504 Houston at Toronto

Very happy to lay this small number at home with the Raptors. Houston has already lost on the road to Brooklyn, Miami, Denver and the Clippers. The only quality road win was at Minnesota. Coming off an overtime loss at San Antonio, this team hasn’t proven itself away from home this season. 

Toronto is 8-2 ATS at home, off an overtime home loss to Miami last time out. Prior to that defeat the Raptors had won seven straight games. This is a cheap number to lay for Toronto.

PLAY TORONTO

579 Washington at LA Lakers

The high scoring Wizards look to add to its success on the road trip after outscoring the Suns on Wednesday. While the record isn’t overly impressive, the Wizards have won 3 of 5 overall heading into this contest.

The Lakers are coming in off an emotional come from behind win in New Orleans. It was a positive homecoming for Anthony Davis. Now the team has a fun get out and run game with the Wizards before hosting the red hot Mavericks on Sunday. This is a major sandwich spot for the host with Dallas, Denver and Utah up next. 

PLAY WASHINGTON

556 San Antonio at New York

The Spurs have dropped eight straight games and have the Lakers on deck. Naturally this is the game San Antonio needs to have. But this isn’t your typical Spurs squad we are so used to seeing under Pops. The defense simply isn’t there right now, as every opponent the Spurs have played this season has reached triple figures.

The Knicks have held the lead the majority of the game only five times this season, but it’s happened in each of the last four games. This is a team that is getting better and better each time out, but is staying under the national radar. Wrong team favored based on the way these teams are playing right now.

PLAY NEW YORK 

524 Utah at Memphis

The Jazz have struggled on the road thus far with a 1-4 ATS mark. Off four straight victories the team may enter here a bit satisfied with its recent performance. 

The Grizzlies host the Jazz for the first of a four game home stand. After wins at San Antonio and Charlotte this team should have solid momentum for this home battle. Our numbers show this line to be too high. We step in and take the host.

PLAY MEMPHIS

511 Brooklyn at Denver

Nets are well rested having not played a back to back since November 1st and 2nd. This is the 4th of 5 on this road trip, but it should be well acclimated to the atmosphere after playing at Utah on Tuesday.

While the Nuggets are 7-3 on the season, they have been quite fortunate. We have them at a deserved 5-5 as they have only had an average lead this season of 0.15 points per game. That despite being favored in all ten games this season. 

The Nuggets are the most overrated team in the league based on how it has played this season. We take advantage of that tonight with an inflated line.

PLAY BROOKLYN

502 Miami at Cleveland

We've been impressed by the start the Miami Heat have gotten off to. This team looks like a legit contender for a mid-tier playoff position. That said, this line is simply too high based on the way these two teams have been playing. 

Cleveland is 4-6 on the season which is enough of a surprise, but the team is actually better than that. On the year the Cavaliers have held a lead for more time than the opposition. That despite playing 6 of 10 games on the road, and being an underdog in all 10 games! This line is all based on reputation and preseason expectations. We expect the Cavs to win this outright.

PLAY CLEVELAND

578 Philadelphia at Orlando

Despite a 7-3 record the 76ers are not playing up to its talent level. Our numbers show the team has been very fortunate and should have a 5-5 record. This team is only 1.7 points per game better than the schedule of teams it has faced. Now in the second game of a back to back and third in four days, their best players will likely be sitting. 

As opposed to the visitor the Magic are playing better than its record. Orlando is 3-7 on the year but our numbers show this team is only 0.5 points worse than the schedule it has played. And that schedule has featured Toronto, Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas and Indiana. With two days off since the last time the Magic took the court, Orlando has a huge scheduling advantage tonight.

PLAY ORLANDO

560 Toronto at LA Clippers

Short handed Raptors pulled off an impressive upset of the Lakers last night. But in doing so VanFleet played 38 minutes and Siakam 42. Now playing back to back against a Clippers team that has had the past three days off. LA doesn’t play again until Wednesday, so there will be no load limits for the Clippers star. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough as we expect the Raptors to fade in the second half.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

538 Charlotte at Philadelphia

The Hornets have been very fortunate with a 4-5 record. Our numbers show it deserves a 2-7 mark. The only two games it should have won were against the Bulls and Kings, two teams who started the year poorly. This is the only road game in a five game stretch for the Hornets.

The 76ers return home from a bad 1-3 road trip, with three straight losses entering this contest. Philadelphia doesn’t play again until Tuesday against the lowly Cavaliers. We expect the host to take out some frustrations here on the unrested Hornets.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

527 Golden State at Oklahoma City

Nobody is going to want anything to do with these short handed Warriors after an overtime loss. But that gives us plenty of value here. Golden State played ten players yesterday, all early double digit minutes. And for the third time in four games the Warriors held the lead for a majority of the game. This is a team that is much better than the record shows, and we can take advantage of that with increased lines.

Oklahoma City doesn’t run like they used to, which keep scoring down and gives underdogs a better chance to stay in the game. Coming off its worst defensive performance of the season, we expect the pace to be slower than normal. 

PLAY GOLDEN STATE

540 New York at Orlando

Simply put the New York Knicks are terrible, and any time we can bet against them at a reasonable number we will. Coming off a undeserved home victory over Chicago seems like as good a time as any. While the score shows a 105-98 win, the average lead in the game was 8.9 points. By the Bulls! Chicago dominated that game and yet found a way to lose. On the season New York is 3-1 ATS despite very rarely holding a lead. 

Orlando is coming off losses to Atlanta and Toronto, two teams playing much better than expected. The Magic are well rested having only played three games this season and no back to backs. With Milwaukee and Denver on the horizon this is a must win game for the host. We expect a terrific effort from the Magic as they win this one handily.

PLAY ORLANDO

533 Atlanta at Miami

While the Hawks are playing in the second game of a back to back, Miami is playing its third game in four days. It’s also the first game with Jimmy Butler a key offseason signing. Since Butler didn’t play in the first three games we can look for rust to be a factor after coming back from the birth of a child. 

Atlanta was good to us yesterday and continues to be underrated in the betting marketplace. This young team is playing with great confidence now, showing yesterday it could play head up with the elite in the east. Despite that loss Atlanta led the majority of the game. No way the line should be this high with the way the Hawks are playing right now.

PLAY ATLANTA

530 Denver at Sacramento

Everybody and their brother likes this Denver Nuggets team coming into the season. It’s an extremely talented team that many feel will represent the Western Conference in this years championship. But despite a 2-0 start to the season the Nuggets haven’t been overly impressive. Having to go to overtime against Phoenix at home last time out as an example. We see it all the time. A team is highly publicized in the off season and believes all the hype. Hey how bout those Cleveland Browns! Now sitting at 2-0 with an improved Dallas on deck tomorrow, what kind of effort will we see out of the Nuggets tonight.

The Kings on the other hand are 0-3 on the young season, losing all three games by double digits. The last being a 113-81 road loss at Utah. Nobody wants these Kings tonight, which means the value is there on the host. This team is not nearly as bad as it has shown so far, and this is the only game in a three day stretch. With the Clippers twice, Boston and Milwaukee on deck, this is an all in game for the host.

PLAY SACRAMENTO

516 Philadelphia at Atlanta

Joel Embid is listed as questionable tonight, but this analysis expects him to play. While Embid has a sizable advantage down low over the Hawks, we like the way this young team has started the season. Atlanta has the youngest starting five in the league including two rookies who have gotten off to impressive starts. This is a matchup of the only two undefeated teams in the league and the home crowd will be pumped. Trey Young has been outstanding thus far and the line provides us value on the host. We look for a high scoring contest with Atlanta pulling off the shocker.

PLAY ATLANTA

530 Golden State at Toronto

The much better team in this series has been the Toronto Raptors. If you were to take the names off the front of the jerseys the Raptors would be a clear betting favorite. If it wasn’t for one half of a basketball game Toronto would already be champions. 

Toronto was favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points before the news broke that Kevin Durant would try to play tonight. I’m now seeing a three to four point line move, for a player who hasn’t stepped on the court in weeks. He’s an excellent player when fully healthy, but that’s not what we will be getting tonight. Besides, if you are Durant, a free agent after these playoffs, do you really want to risk the chance of getting further injured right before a huge payday? 

The Warriors have played without him for weeks, and now they must adjust to him back in the lineup. If this was a regular season game the wise guys would be looking to fad the Warriors here. We look to do the same even if it is the playoffs. 

PLAY TORONTO

609 Longwood at DePauk

The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. 

Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here.

PLAY LONGWOOD

870 Buffalo & Texas Tech

Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. 

Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

781 New Mexico State & Auburn

The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. 

Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense.

Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. 

With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory.

PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE

814 Iowa & Michigan

Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. 

PLAY MICHIGAN

603 Binghamton at Vermont

The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this.

The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest.

PLAY BINGHAMTON

888 San Diego & St Mary’s

Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today.

PLAY ST MARY’S 

Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. 

535 Cleveland at Brooklyn

The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. 

Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year.

PLAY CLEVELAND

503 Atlanta at Miami

Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play.

Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building.

PLAY ATLANTA

582 Orlando at Cleveland

Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. 

Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks.

PLAY CLEVELAND

660 South Carolina at Missouri

The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring.

PLAY UNDER

553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers

Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game.

The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

611 William & Mary at Towson

The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. 

It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. 

With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on.

PLAY WILLIAM & MARY

787 Georgia Tech at Virginia

Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. 

The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. 

With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout.

PLAY GEORGIA TECH

604 Akron at Buffalo

The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. 

In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. 

With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly.

PLAY BUFFALO

562 Portland at Cleveland

Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it.

Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. 

Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested.

PLAY CLEVELAND

626 Maryland at Iowa

Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%.

Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less.

PLAY UNDER 

687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State

Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH