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Bryan Leonard NCAA-F Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
01-11-21 Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 Top 24-52 Win 100 79 h 4 m Show

499 Ohio State & Alabama

We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. 

Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here.

PLAY OVER

11-21-20 Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 35-42 Win 100 21 h 36 m Show

357 Indiana at Ohio State

The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. 

Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. 

PLAY OVER

11-11-20 Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 Top 31-38 Win 100 3 h 38 m Show

117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State

Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. 

The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. 

The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout.

PLAY OVER

09-26-20 UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 31-6 Win 100 21 h 36 m Show

448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe

These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. 

The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum.

PLAY UNDER

09-26-20 Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 10-24 Win 100 21 h 36 m Show

446 Army at Cincinnati 

The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground.

PLAY UNDER

08-29-19 Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 14-42 Loss -105 27 h 43 m Show

137 Florida International at Tulane

The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. 

Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019.

PLAY OVER

12-15-18 Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 20-31 Win 100 26 h 48 m Show

206 Arizona State & Fresno State in Las Vegas

The Sun Devils have a long history off high scoring bowl games. In the last seven years we have seen 83, 85, 67, 60, 90 and 80  withpoints scored in the six times Arizona State has gone bowling. But this isn’t your typical Sun Devil team, and Fresno State is not your typical defensive opponent. The last three seasons this club permitted 32.8, 39.8 and 33.5 points per game. But this season the opposition has scored 35 or more just twice all year. 

Fresno State has held every opponent this season to 27 points or less. Last year the Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 points per game. This has been an elite defense under Jeff Tedford. Fresno held PAC 12 representative UCLA to just 14 points earlier this season, with a 34% offensive success rate. We look for a defensive battle here.

PLAY UNDER

12-01-18 Clemson v. Pittsburgh UNDER 53 42-10 Win 100 32 h 42 m Show

320 Pittsburgh at Clemson

The Panthers are a team that prefers to run the ball and play defense. It will be very difficult for this team to have success on the ground against this stout Clemson stop unit. But this Pitt defense could be good enough to keep this game close. The last four games this stop unit has been outstanding with 20.0, 35.3, 39.0 and 38.0% success rates. Sure this Clemson scoring unit is superior to Miami, Wake, VT and Virginia, but without the Panthers putting points on the board this total is way too high. 

PLAY UNDER

09-15-18 Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 17-22 Win 100 115 h 13 m Show

138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame

The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. 

Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here.

PLAY UNDER

09-03-18 Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 Top 24-3 Loss -106 245 h 30 m Show

219 Virginia Tech at Florida State

Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. 

We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago.

But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further.

PLAY OVER

11-14-17 Ohio v. Akron UNDER 52 34-37 Loss -115 8 h 53 m Show

302 Ohio U at Akron

Huge game in the MAC tonight as a win for Ohio virtually clinches the division, but Akron will have a lot to say about it. History shows low scoring affairs. In fact, the same setup happened a year ago and these teams combined for only 12 points. The prior three seasons saw point totals of 26, 43 and 46 points. With the Zips offense struggling right now Akron will rely on a defense that has been solid all season when not outclassed as it was against Penn State, Iowa State and Toledo. We look for a tight low scoring game with this contest going under the posted total.

PLAY UNDER

10-14-17 Tulane v. Florida International OVER 51 10-23 Loss -115 28 h 6 m Show

145 Tulane at Florida International

In games when Tulane is not facing fellow option teams the points have been plenty. 70 points vs Oklahoma and 90 last week against Tulsa. This total is much too low for an offense that is starting to hit its stride.

Florida International looked good against Rice, holding the Owls to just 9 points. But other than that it has yielded 61 to UCF, 29 to Charlotte and 37 to Middle Tennessee State. This is the first option team these Panthers seniors have faced. Lots a points scored here.

PLAY OVER

10-07-17 Tulsa v. Tulane OVER 54.5 28-62 Win 100 24 h 12 m Show

361 Tulsa at Tulane

The last three years have seen point totals of 77, 79 and 79 points including overtime. While this isn’t the same Tulsa offense of the last two years, the Golden Hurricane can move the ball on the Green Wave. This is the third straight option attack Tulsa has faced. Which is normally a good thing. But when you haven’t proven the ability to stop it, it only gets worse for this defense. Playing the option and cut blocks is a physical way to play. Now this team has to go through it for the third straight week. 

Tulane is fresh and off a buy after facing the option of Army. While the offense has only scored 21, 14 and 21 the past three games, keep in mind the opposition. One game was against heavyweight Oklahoma, the other two against Army and Navy. When two option teams go head to the head the scoring is stifled. This total is just too low for clubs that should have distinct offensive advantages.

PLAY OVER

11-15-16 Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 55 7-42 Win 100 7 h 12 m Show

302 Kent State at Bowling Green

While the Mid-American Conference is thought of as a high scoring league we often find value on the under when these teams play in the national spotlight. Face it, the general sports bettor wants scoring and lots of it, which is why this MACtion games have been so successful for ESPN. Last week these two combined for 66 and 58 points so the first reaction would be for another high scoring MAC contest. But we only made this line 47.1 which gives us a full touchdown advantage on the under in this contest. Kent State is a very good defensive team in this conference, and the Falcons have gotten better on that side of the ball as the season has unfolded. Look for a lower scoring contest here.

PLAY UNDER

11-12-16 Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 79 24-45 Win 100 11 h 9 m Show

200 Baylor at Oklahoma

This Baylor offense is not even close to previous versions, scoring just 22 last week against a questionable TCU stop unit. The only times it reached 40 points was against SMU, Iowa State and Kansas. Only once in those three games did the Bears surpass 5.7 yards per play. 

Oklahoma has held 6 of 9 opponents to less than 5.3 yards per play. This defense has really tightened up since Texas Tech put up 59 points against them. With a very high total in an early start game we look for this contest to be lower scoring than projected.

PLAY UNDER

11-11-16 Boston College v. Florida State OVER 47.5 7-45 Win 100 8 h 37 m Show

117 Boston College at Florida State

The better team usually dictates the pace and it’s clear who is considered the superior team here. While Boston College was excellent defensively the last two seasons the same cannot be said this year, especially when playing solid offensive teams. The Eagles permitted 49 to Virginia Tech, 56 to Clemson and 52 to Louisville. Tough to play under this number when facing another team who has had defensive problems all season. 

Florida State has held just one opponent under 19 points this year and that was Wake Forest in a 17-6 victory. This team has permitted 34, 63, 35, 37, 19, 37 and 20 points in every other game. We all know the Seminoles can put up points in a hurry, and we expect this to be a higher scoring game. In looking at explosive plays the Eagles produce 8.0 per contest while the Seminoles sit at 12.9 per game. That average of 10.45 is a full 2 explosive plays higher than any other game lined in the 40’s this week. That gives us a tremendous advantage against this current line. 

PLAY OVER

09-09-16 Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 62-28 Win 100 8 h 30 m Show

303 Louisville at Syracuse

Last year the Cardinals allowed 28.8 ppg when playing away from home. Offensively the Cards are explosive with Lamar Jackson behind center. A dual threat QB with loads of talent. 

Before Dino Babers and his high octane offense moved to Syracuse, he was the head man at Bowling Green. He runs a fast paced offense with as many plays as possible. The faster the better. Before he came to BG the Falcons games averaged 53.7 ppg. In his two years at BG the Falcons games averaged 63.5 and 71.1. He wants to play the same way with the Orangemen. Last year Bowling Green at home had final scores of 72, 86, 69, 100 and 85. We expect this to be a fast paced shootout.

PLAY OVER

10-24-15 Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 61.5 26-52 Win 100 22 h 44 m Show

327 Indiana at Michigan State
On the season these two clubs have combined for 146 explosive plays, the same number as Memphis at Tulsa last night. That total was in the 77 range while this one sits more than two full touchdowns less. The last two years these two combined for 73 and 70 points and this Spartans defense is nowhere as good as those units. Indiana has put up 27 or more and 400 yards against all but one opponent, including Wake Forest and Ohio State who both have strong stop units. 
Michigan State is sure to have a letdown here after that amazing finish at Michigan. The team has a well needed bye after this game. The Spartans are a talented offensive team but this defense has been exploited. This team has permitted 11 drives of 80 yards or more and allowed 37 explosive plays. With the in-state showdown finally over and with a bye on deck we can see the Spartans playing this game free and easy. That points to a lot of scoring. 
PLAY OVER

10-24-15 Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 17-41 Loss -109 19 h 24 m Show

324 Ohio U at Buffalo
Ohio has played one quality offense all season and that was last week against Western Michigan. Against teams of Buffalo’s ilk the Bobcats have allowed just 16 points a game. Ohio has only 20 explosive plays on the season and coming off by far its worst defensive performance of 49 points, we can see this team stepping up the “D” once again.
Buffalo has the same problem moving the football with just 13 explosive plays on the season. This team is averaging less than 21 points per game against FBS squads. It too is coming off its worst defensive performance of the year allowing Central Michigan 51. Every other team scored 28 or less and that includes Bowling Green who has dominated offensively against everyone. With both teams off season highs in points allowed we will expect a low scoring affair here.
PLAY UNDER

10-22-15 Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 24-14 Loss -110 6 h 57 m Show

307 Temple at East Carolina
Now that the total has dropped we are stepping out with a play on the over here. These two teams have combined for 108 plays of 20 yards to higher this year which would equate to a total in the mid 50’s. Take a look at the poor offenses Temple has faced, Penn State, Charlotte, Tulane and Central Florida. UMass has the ability but still ranks in the lower 30 offensively. Only Cincinnati has a quality offense and 60 points were scored when those two teams got together. 
East Carolina games tend to be high scoring. In fact, this is by far the lowest total of the season for the Pirates. All but one of their FBS games surpassed the total. Last week the Pirates tried to slow down the Tulsa Hurricane by snapping the ball after 26.7 seconds. That was much higher than the average of less than 23 seconds per play. Which is a major reason why that game last week stayed under the total. The weather is on no concern here so the track will not be affected. Look for East Carolina to return to a quicker offense to keep the Owls from making defensive adjustments.
PLAY OVER

10-03-15 Houston v. Tulsa OVER 79.5 38-24 Loss -106 46 h 36 m Show

149 Houston at Tulsa
Both these teams want to play fast under new head coaches. Houston is producing 82, 92 and 78 plays, while Tulsa is producing 86, 89 and 91 plays. Former Ohio State OC Herman has taken over the offense at Houston and you can see how his absence has affected the Buckeyes. While the Houston defense isn’t bad the Golden Hurricane will still find success.
In three games for Tulsa there have been 42 explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Tulsa has produced four drives of 80 yards or longer. So this team can sustain a drive and has big play ability. Lots of plays and fast possessions point to a high scoring matchup.
PLAY OVER

09-26-15 Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 59.5 30-27 Loss -110 47 h 17 m Show

393 Oklahoma State at Texas
Texas had 52 plays in the opener vs Notre Dame and only 38 against Rice. The Longhorns put up 83 plays last week against California. With Heard taking over at QB for Texas this team put up 42 points and 44 points the past two weeks. The change at signal caller has been drastic for this squad as the total Notre Dame dominance in the opener with Swoops behind center is a distant memory. Last year both these teams struggled offensively in comparison to previous seasons. We feel both offenses are on the uptick. 
Oklahoma State returns eight offensive starters and QB Mason Rudolph led this team to 578 and 534 yards the past two weeks. The Cowboys are finding themselves offensively and this isn’t even close to the Texas defense that held them to just 192 yards a season ago. Texas ranks 119th this season allowing over 500 yards per game. We expect a shootout.
PLAY OVER

09-19-15 SMU v. TCU OVER 66 37-56 Win 100 54 h 13 m Show

187 SMU at TCU Over
Chad Morris in his first year in Dallas has this team on the rise. The former Clemson OC has the Mustangs playing a much faster pace after this club amazingly averaged only 11.1 points per game a year ago. SMU held it’s own against Baylor and pulled away late against North Texas. The offense looks night and day different than a year ago and we have value right now playing this SMU squad over. 
TCU has scored 56 and 48 points the last two years against SMU. With a much faster pace from the opposition we can look for even more scoring for the Horned Frogs. But while SMU was held to a combined 17 the last two years in this series, we expect at least 20 and probably more from SMU on Saturday. TCU returned just 5 starters on the defensive line from a year ago, and we see this unit being weaker this season. Minnesota and Stephen F Austin didn’t expose TCU but a good passing game from the Mustangs certainly can. This one will be a shootout as the dog will never quit trying to get into the end zone.
PLAY OVER

09-05-15 Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 65.5 38-34 Loss -106 136 h 32 m Show

162 Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan

The Monarchs will be playing more of a ball control offense this season after the graduation of the All-Conference Center and QB Taylor Heinicke who was a four year starter. Old Dominion will have a new quarterback who has never taken a snap at this level. In fact, the two players looking for snaps were a 2 star recruit by rivals and a non-recruit. The defense has given up more points per game than the prior season in four straight years but the team couldn’t get a set lineup last year because of injuries. So with more depth this season we expect the Monarchs to turn that around. Eastern Michigan’s defense improved by 4.3 points per game last year despite playing at Florida, at Michigan State and facing top tier offenses in the MAC away from Rynearson Stadium. This is a team with 8 defensive starters returning which is more than any season since 2009. Our contacts have been impressed by the strides this defense has made in the off-season and with the Monarchs breaking in a new signal caller we expect the Eagles to hold them in check. The last two years Eastern Michigan averaged 15.2 and 18.8 points per game. This is not a quality offense at this time despite the excitement of QB Reginald Bell. Just 5 returning starters and six straight years of averaging less than 22 points per game. The defense will keep the Eagles close but the offense may not have the talent to produce victories.PLAY UNDER

11-22-14 New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 66.5 20-58 Win 100 20 h 54 m Show

163 New Mexico at Colorado State
When it comes to Lobo games our first instinct is to take a look at the Over. New Mexico has an outstanding running attack that averages 6.3 yards per carry. The problem with the Lobos is that they are equally bad at stopping the run allowing 6.0 ypr. When facing defenses rated at #90 or worse the Lobos have scored 24, 38, 31 and 31 points. The Rams have third third best offense New Mexico has faced this year. In the other two games against Top 60 offenses they permitted 58 and 60 points. 
Colorado State is coming in off a bye which should prepare them a bit better for this option attack, it also doesn’t hurt to have another option team with Air Force on deck. But the Rams allow 4.5 ypr on the season despite facing a slew of bad running football teams. When facing defenses ranked 80 or worse Colorado State has scored 42, 31, 45, 38 and 49 points. Last year these two clubs combined for 108 points. We are looking at a repeat in that point range.
PLAY OVER

11-22-14 Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 56.5 3-45 Loss -110 18 h 27 m Show

134 Rutgers at Michigan State
The beat up Rutgers defense was able to survive against a weak passing one dimensional Indiana team. But that won’t be repeated here against Michigan State still trying to take out some frustrations off that Ohio State loss. The Spartans cannot only pound the rock with success but have a passing game to extend the margin. Rutgers is wearing out in its first year in the physical Big 10 Conference and we expect that to continue here. When facing a defense not ranked in the Top 50 in the nation, Michigan State has scored 73, 56, 45 and 56 points. Not only do we feel the Spartans will cover this number, they have a decent chance of taking this total over just by themselves.
PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
PLAY OVER

11-21-14 UTEP v. Rice OVER 51.5 13-31 Loss -110 27 h 10 m Show

117 UTEP at Rice

The Miners have moved the ball at will against the majority of opposition this year, putting up 26 points or better against all but one opponent. In fact, only two games all season stayed under the current line on this contest. In those two games the opposition was Southern Miss and UTSA, two of the weakest offensive units in college football. Rice has been able to put points on the board when not stepping up in class against the likes of Marshall, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. In games against similar talented defenses as UTEP only once all season have the Owls not reached 28 points in a contest. The last five meetings in this series has resulted in point totals of 52, 57, 78, 68 and 59 points. In our opinion this number is cheap.PLAY OVER

11-15-14 Utah v. Stanford UNDER 43 Top 20-17 Win 100 31 h 48 m Show

356 Utah at Stanford
The Utes had held every opponent faced to 28 points or less this season until that debacle last week against Oregon. We all know how that turned out after we all thought Utah had a 14-0 lead over the Ducks. Stanford has one of the weaker offensive games in which Utah has faced this year. Coming off an embarrassing performance we expect this defense to step up against a manageable foe.
Stanford when facing offenses not ranked in the Top 30 have permitted zero to Army, 20 to Washington, 17 against Washington State and 14 against Oregon State. When facing a Top 30 defense Stanford has managed just 10 against USC, 20 vs Washington, 14 vs Notre Dame and 16 against Oregon. Coming off a bye after allowing a whopping 45 points to Oregon we know the defense will be primed for a bounce back.
PLAY UNDER

11-15-14 Temple v. Penn State UNDER 39 13-30 Loss -104 25 h 0 m Show

324 Temple at Penn State
If you are looking for offense this is going to be a long and boring contest. Penn State played one terrible defensive team this year, Massachusetts. In that game the Nittany Lions scored 48 points. In every other game this season Penn State has averaged less than 17 points per game. While the Penn State offense is horrible the defense has been outstanding. 
When facing what we consider to be a Top 50 defense the Owls have scored 10 vs Houston, 14 against Central Florida and 13 vs Memphis. This Penn State stop unit is a step above each of those. 
PLAY UNDER

11-14-14 Tulsa v. Central Florida OVER 55 7-31 Loss -109 32 h 26 m Show

317 Tulsa at Central Florida

We believe too much emphasis on this total is attributed to early season Central Florida opposition. The Knights started the year against Penn State, Missouri, Houston and BYU. All teams that play pretty good defense. That has contributed majorly to the poor Central Florida offensive numbers. Since that time we have seen total points scored of 33, 48 and 66 against questionable offensive teams of Connecticut, Tulane and Temple. Now we get the best of both worlds with a weak Tulsa defense but an offense that can put up some points.In Tulsa’s two games against very good defenses 59 and 60 points were scored. But here is the real kicker. Against bad offensive teams Tulsa games have ended up with 69, 71, 59, 68 and 66 points. So even poor offensive teams can have success against this Golden Hurricane stop unit. This is a stand alone game on Friday night so you know the total is going to rise. Let’s get this one out now as obviously the Florida weather won’t be a factor.PLAY OVER

11-13-14 East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 68 Top 46-54 Win 100 8 h 3 m Show

311 East Carolina at Cincinnati
These two teams have plenty in common when it comes to playing quality offenses, a plethora of points will be scored. Because of the general weakness of the offenses faced with these schedules the true offensive prowess of these clubs has been a bit overlooked. Against what is considered Top 50 Offensive squads these two clubs have combined for point totals of 56 and 111 for East Carolina and 92, 78 and 89 for Cincinnati. With neither of these teams ranking in the top half of defensive rankings we can look for an old fashioned shootout in this televised contest.
PLAY OVER

11-11-14 Toledo v. Northern Illinois OVER 58.5 24-27 Loss -112 9 h 6 m Show

303 Toledo at Northern Illinois

Huge game in the division as Toledo stands 5-0 and the surging Huskies 4-1. While Northern Illinois has had great success in this conference over the last few years and Toledo has taken money virtually every week, we will look in another direction with our selection. Both teams have dynamic offenses with both able to wear out a defense with its ground game. Neither stop unit has been overly impressive this season and can be exploited. While we normally look for a conservative game plan in such a key matchup, we feel both coaches know the best way to success is relying on strong offenses. We expect this one to be a shootout.PLAY OVER

11-08-14 Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 68 41-38 Win 100 28 h 11 m Show

159 Texas A&M at Auburn
The Tigers have permitted 21, 38 and 35 points to similar rated offenses as the Aggies. In turn Auburn has scored 45, 59, 45 and 42 points against similarly rated defenses. The Tigers have a huge edge along the offensive line here which should keep the markers moving.
A&M QB Kyle Allen was highly recruited and laid a complete egg last week against UL Monroe. But we expect a much better offensive game from the Aggies here. Texas A&M is averaging 26 points per game against the best four defenses it faced, while Auburn has the best offense Texas A&M has played this year. Lot’s of scoring and neither coach is shy about running up a score.
PLAY OVER

11-07-14 Memphis v. Temple UNDER 52.5 16-13 Win 100 50 h 11 m Show

114 Memphis at Temple
This is one of the three weakest offenses the Tigers will have faced this season along with Middle Tennessee and SMU. Memphis held those two opponents to a combined 27 points. With Temple coming off its first win over a ranked foe in 16 years the Owls won’t be able to count on a +5 turnover advantage to get on the scoreboard.
Temple does play solid defense and we expect the Owls to be stout this week against a Memphis squad who has feasted on the weak defenses of Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, SMU and Tulsa this year. Both teams stop the run well and we believe this total is in part shaped by recent questionable results. 
PLAY UNDER

10-25-14 Memphis v. SMU UNDER 49.5 48-10 Loss -102 48 h 42 m Show

162 Memphis at SMUThe Tigers just finished its toughest part of the schedule and now finishes the year with a bunch of weak opponents. After facing SMU the Tigers tangle with the likes of Tulsa, Temple, Tulane, South Florida and Connecticut. At 3-3 on the season Memphis is virtually assured of making a bowl game. Which makes us leery of the Tigers running up the score here. This club knows running between the tackles will but points on the board and in doing so the clock keeps running. Why put Paxton Lynch in jeopardy? SMU on the other hand has scored six points or less in all but one game this season. With a bye on deck the very thin Mustangs will likely want this one to end as soon as possible to get to the week off and recuperate. SMU has been pounded by pass first mentality teams all year and the Tigers rush the ball on average 48 times per game. Look for the Tigers to have a real shot at a shootout here which gives us a comfortable play on the under.PLAY UNDER

10-23-14 Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49 30-6 Win 100 29 h 21 m Show

108 Miami Florida at Virginia Tech

Huge game in ACC Coastal action as both squads sit at 1-2 at the moment. That likely means a more conservative game plan from both squads. Virginia Tech hasn’t lived up to offensive promise this year after Michael Brewer looked like an upgrade at the quarterback position. Defensively the Hokies are stout holding talented offenses like East Carolina and North Carolina to 28 and 17 points. Only East Carolina and Georgia Tech have managed more than 21 against Virginia Tech and we doubt a freshman signal caller will have great success in this one. Miami has padded their offensive stats against bad defensive teams such as Florida A&M, Arkansas State and Cincinnati. The best defense they faced this season was Louisville and the Hurricanes only managed 13 points in that contest. We expect a low scoring affair with the loser likely out of the divisional race.PLAY UNDER

09-20-14 Northern Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 65 14-52 Win 100 48 h 52 m Show

381 Northern Illinois at Arkansas

The Huskies have won 17 straight on the road including a ten point victory last week in Las Vegas. Now this club faces a major defensive challenge against a huge Arkansas offensive line. MAC teams as a whole are smaller in the trenches and the Razorbacks are bigger than the majority of NFL offensive lines. That means plenty of running plays for the hogs against what will be a tired Northern Illinois defense in the second half. That could be especially true after playing in the desert heat last Saturday.While the defense is sure to struggle the Huskies can put points on the board. This is a talented offense that likes to get up and down the field as fast as possible. With a winning pedigree you know there will be a never say die attitude with the Huskies.PLAY OVER

08-30-14 Clemson v. Georgia UNDER 57.5 21-45 Loss -110 382 h 35 m Show

182 Clemson at Georgia

Not only do the Tigers have to replace thousand yard rusher McDowell, star QB Boyd and extremely talented receivers Watkins and Bryant, they also must replace All-Time scorer Calanzaro at kicker. The defense has 7 returning starters from a team that was excellent at penetration of the line. Georgia also enters the season without amazing signal caller Murray while 7 defensive starters return. After the stop unit regressed by close to 10 points per game a year ago we expect Georgia to be dominant at times on that side of the ball. Last year these two combined for 73 points and the casual fan will look to play this game over. But history shows starting the year with two new signal callers points to low scoring games. Throw in the fact that the defenses are extremely talented and we look for a very conservative game plan from the coaches.PLAY UNDER

08-28-14 Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 Top 41-38 Win 100 131 h 8 m Show

143 Rutgers at Washington State

The Scarlet Knights put up 26.5 ppg a season ago and bring back 9 starters including improving quarterback Gary Nova. Rutgers has a quality offensive line which will give him time to find open receivers against a questionable Cougar stop unit.Washington State put up 31 ppg a year ago while allowing 32.5. The Cougars return 8 starters to an offense that brings back the outstanding Connor Halliday behind center. Washington State is deep and talented at the receiver spots and they have impact freshmen on the offensive side of the ball. With Rutgers have major problems in the defensive secondary the Cougars should be in for a big day offensively.PLAY OVER

12-21-13 Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 48-45 Win 100 47 h 14 m Show
201 New Mexico Bowl Colorado St. v. Washington St.
The Rams have a 1.2 yards per play advantage but they have played a much easier slate of opponents. Colorado State permits 63.3% completions and they are facing off against a Cougars team that passes 77% of the time. The Rams victories this year have come against Cal Poly, UTEP, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico and Air Force. None of those teams are going bowling this year.
Washington State beat both USC and Arizona on the road, who are both playing in the post season. They also lost at Auburn by just 7 points. In fact, Washington State has played much better ball outside of Pullman. The Cougars haven
11-20-13 Northern Illinois v. Toledo OVER 72 35-17 Loss -115 10 h 17 m Show
105 Northern Illinois at Toledo
The MAC West all comes down to this. If Northern Illinois wins they play in the MAC Championship, if Toledo wins here and next week against Akron they are in. Both teams own outstanding rushing games which average 6.3 yards per carry. David Fluellen for Toledo, a solid runner will be a game time decision. He has been in and out of the lineup lately, but the Rockets are strong in the run game with or without him. The weather calls for a possibility of rain, but that shouldn
11-16-13 Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 Top 17-30 Loss -111 32 h 40 m Show
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn
11-08-13 Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 59 37-45 Win 100 12 h 43 m Show
118 Air Force at New Mexico
This is an interesting handicap when it comes to the total. Both teams run forms of the option, which is what each squad sees in practice all season long. Therefore the defenses have an advantage. Both teams have struggled defending the pass, but neither team throws the ball very often. Therefore the defenses have the advantage. Both points involve sound reasoning. So why are we projecting a high scoring game? Because both of these defenses are terrible and both offenses can run the football. The FBS average is 4.3 yards per carry. Air Force runs for 4.9 ypc and allows 4.8. New Mexico on the other hand produces a whopping 6.3 ypc and allows the same 6.3 ypc. You don
10-24-13 Marshall v. Middle Tenn State UNDER 57 49-51 Loss -110 32 h 43 m Show
108 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd came into the season with high offensive expectations. With NFL QB prospect Rakeem Cato at the helm and coming off a season where Marshall averaged 40.9 points per game, the sky was the limit for this offense. After averaging just 21.8 ppg in 2011 this scoring unit was due for regression and that's exactly what has happened to Doc Holliday's club. After starting the season strong against the likes of Miami Ohio and Gardner-Webb this team hasn't been nearly as dynamic offensively. On the season Marshall is averaging just 5.3 yards per play which is less that the FBS average of 5.6. That despite playing a very weak schedule. With Middle Tennessee currently sitting at the league average in yards per play against we can't see this Thundering Herd offense breaking out on Thursday. Marshall is averaging an FBS average of .39 points per play and that has again been vs weak opposition. Defensively Marshall has been extremely good over the course of the season. Allowing 4.5 ypp and .30 points per play. They should have little problem containing a Blue Raider offense that has been terrible all season.
Rick Stockstill has done an excellent job since coming to Murfreesboro in 2006. He took his team to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2010 and is coming off a solid 8-4 season. But this years club pales in comparison, especially on the offensive side of the football. This club is averaging just 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The passing game is at 8.8 yards per completion which is well below the FBS average of 12.1. This team can't extend the field offensively and they don't have the ability to come from behind. Defensively the Blue Raiders are grading out as an FBS average stop unit, but they have played a tougher schedule than today's opponent. Coming off back to back games against East Carolina and North Texas this stop unit won't be overwhelmed against this Marshall offense.
With the two best units on the field likely being the defenses and with Middle Tennessee State having a hell of a time moving the football, points will surely be at a premium in this contest.
PLAY UNDER
09-07-13 Florida v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 48 16-21 Win 100 27 h 13 m Show
306 Florida v Miami Fl Under
The last 10 times the Gators faced a quality opponent 7 times the game ended with less points than the current total of this contest. The Florida offense returns 6 starters from a team that only scored 26.5 ppg a year ago. QB Driskel plays pretty well in this system but he's not known as a player who can beat you with his talent. The defense for the Gators is the reason for this play. Florida allowed 14.5 ppg a year ago and despite just 4 returning starters we look for another big season from this stop unit. Florida held down a very good offense vs Toledo last week which is hard to do regardless of who the Rockets play. Toledo had gone 36 straight games without being held to single digits and they managed just 6 against the Gators last week.
Miami brings back a whopping 18 starters this year and many feel this will be the breakout year for Al Golden. While we do believe the defense will be much improved we still have serious concerns about this offense, especially when taking on quality stop units. We are not a believer in QB Stephen Morris who only managed to complete 58.2% of his passes last year. When stepping up against good defenses last season the Hurricanes were held to 13 against Kansas State, 3 vs Notre Dame and 14 against North Carolina, while they managed 20 vs Florida State. Despite the high number of returning starters on offense we don't see that trend changing.
PLAY UNDER
01-01-13 Wisconsin v. Stanford UNDER 47 14-20 Win 100 23 h 8 m Show
256 Wisconsin vs Stanford at Pasadena
The Badgers really struggled offensively when stepping up in class. Scoring just 7 vs Oregon State, 16 vs Utah State, 10 in regulation against Michigan State, 14 in regulation against Ohio State and 21 in regulation vs Penn State. This Stanford defense is as good or superior to any of those stop units. Defensively the Badgers are extremely sound holding the likes of Oregon State to 10, Utah State to 14 and Ohio State to 14 in regulation.
Stanford has held all but one opponent to 23 points or less this season. They won't be outmatched against this Wisconsin offense. The problem for the Cardinal has been an inconsistent scoring unit that feasted on weak opposition. The PAC 12 isn't known for quality stop units and yet Stanford struggled many times to move the football this season. We expect this to be a field position game with points being very hard to come by.
PLAY UNDER
01-01-13 Northwestern v. Mississippi State OVER 53 Top 34-20 Win 100 19 h 32 m Show
249 Northwestern vs Mississippi State in Jacksonville
Both teams played in defensive first conferences yet the offenses for each of these squads is talented. Northwestern put up 21 points or better against every opponent they faced including quality defenses like Vanderbilt, Penn State and Michigan State. Mississippi State allowed 24 points to Troy, 31 to Tennessee and 37 or better to the three best teams they faced in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU.
The Bulldogs were stymied offensively against those three elite teams but when stepping down in class they excelled, putting up 27 or more on every other opponent. The last four times out when not facing the Big Three they managed 24 against Mississippi, 45 against Arkansas, 45 vs Middle Tennessee State and 41 against Tennessee.
The weather won't be a factor and since both teams went bowling the past two years the players shouldn't come out sluggish. This total is based on games against elite defenses and these two squads don't possess that type of defensive talent.
PLAY OVER
12-20-12 BYU v. San Diego State UNDER 48 23-6 Win 100 28 h 56 m Show
206 BYU & San Diego State
Cougar games have been easy to handicap by looking at the quality of opposition faced. When playing teams with formidable defenses this BYU offense struggles. But in turn the Cougar defense steps up. Case in point are the contests against Boise State a 7-6 loss, Utah State a 6-3 win, Notre Dame a 17-14 loss and San Jose State a 20-14 defeat. We feel this contest against San Diego State will be much the same. A major defensive struggle for both teams.
San Diego State didn't face many quality stop units in the Mountain West Conference, with only Boise State being considered stout defensively. That contest ended with a 21-19 Aztecs victory. In the opener against Washington only 33 points were scored. The one outlier in the group was a 38-34 home loss to San Jose State in a contest where neither team was able to slow down the passing attacks.
The Aztecs held 5 of 7 teams to under 20 points down the stretch and they have enough to make the Cougars really work for points here. Rocky Long and Bronco Mendenhall are both defensive minded coaches who faced off against each other many times over the years.
PLAY UNDER
12-01-12 Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 51 32-28 Loss -105 49 h 21 m Show
334 Alabama vs Georgia
Conference championship games are played closer to the vest than regular season games because the outcome is so important. Neither team wants to risk a turnover by making a key mistake. It also helps in this case because we really like these two stop units.
Alabama hasn't permitted more than 17 points to all but one opponent this season. That lone team to score more was Texas A&M at 29 points in a game the Crimson Tide lost the turnover battle by three. Alabama is coming in off back to back shutouts and they have blanked 4 of 12 teams it faced this season. Alabama only faced one quality defense all season, LSU, and that game totaled 38 points.
The last five games for the Bulldogs it held the opposition to 10, 14, 0, 10 and 9 points. This stop unit has gotten better as the season has gone along, very similar to how Georgia played down the stretch a year ago. In two games against quality defenses Georgia games totaled 42 vs South Carolina and 26 against Florida. We look for another grind it out type of game here.
PLAY UNDER
11-23-12 Syracuse v. Temple OVER 56.5 Top 38-20 Win 100 46 h 18 m Show
119 Syracuse at Temple
The Orangemen are already bowl eligible so this game doesn't have any real significance. Over the last month they beat South Florida and Missouri in last second comebacks and knocked Louisville from the unbeaten ranks. This game will be played without any pressure. The last five games they have put up 31, 45, 24, 37 and 40 points as the offense is really clicking. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Syracuse.
Temple has permitted 9.8, 11.6, 10.2 and 11.5 yppa the last four games, which is not a good sign against this aggressive Syracuse passing game. Over the last five contests the Owls have given up 32, 34, 45, 47 and 35 points. With this being the last game of the season for Temple we expect a wide open no holds barred offensive game. Similar to last week when the Owls let it all hang out against Army, we expect plenty of points to be scored.
PLAY OVER
11-06-12 Ball State v. Toledo OVER 68.5 34-27 Loss -105 11 h 52 m Show
101 Ball State at Toledo
Ball State has played on the road five times this season. Those final point totals were 79, 80, 88, 71 and 52 points. They combined to surpass the posted total by 52 points with the lone under coming last time out at Army. The last three meetings in this series resulted in final points of 73, 55 and 67. The Cardinals passing attack has improved as the season has gone along but they continue to get burned when in pass coverage.
Toledo's home schedule has been stacked with teams with better defenses than offenses including Bowling Green and Cincinnati. This is a better offensive team than they have shown and now stepping down in class they can really prosper against this Ball State stop unit. Toledo hasn't faced a good offensive team since the opener at Arizona and the Wildcats are much better offensively now than they were at that point of the season. Last year the Rockets ran all over the Cardinals averaging 4.8 yards per carry, we expect more of the same here. We made this line Toledo -7 so there is no advantage on the side, but with the defensive minded opposition Toledo has faced this season we could see a coming out party offensively for the Rockets.
PLAY OVER
10-27-12 Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 57.5 9-23 Loss -105 32 h 20 m Show
205 Michigan at Nebraska
Despite the fact that Michigan has held five straight opponents to 13 points or less, we expect this to be a high scoring affair similar to the 45-17 contest from a year ago. The Wolverines have looked good defensively but they have faced the likes of Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State, all teams that struggle to put points on the board. Offensively Michigan has only struggled against Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan State, three elite defenses. Nebraska's stop unit is far from elite, in fact this is a terrible match-up defensively for the Black Shirts.
Because of the way Bo Pelini teaches defense the defensive backfield is left out on an island, which makes the Huskers susceptible to a running quarterback like Michigan's Robinson. So look for a big offensive game from the Wolverine backfield which will open up passing lanes for the receivers. While Nebraska really struggled against a similar styled quarterback in Miller of Ohio State, the offense can trade points with anybody. Nebraska has scored 29 points or better in every game this season including averaging 32.3 ppg in Big Ten action.
PLAY OVER
10-27-12 Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 52 27-42 Loss -105 53 h 42 m Show
141 Hawaii at Colorado State
Both teams are coming off an extra week to prepare after being scorched defensively heading into the break. Hawaii permitted 35 to New Mexico, 52 to San Diego State, 47 to BYU and 69 to Nevada. Colorado State allowed 38 to San Diego State, 28 to Fresno State, 42 to Air Force, 31 to Utah State and 40 to San Jose State. So you know exactly what area both coaching staffs have been working on the last two weeks. Each team has just a single win on the season with the Rams beating in-state rival Colorado in the season opener while the Warriors' lone win came against FCS entrant Lamar.
We expect both squads to play very close to the vest because turnovers have been a major reason for their lack of success this season. Colorado State has lost the turnover battle in all but two games all year, and Hawaii amazingly has lost the turnover battle by at least two in every single game against FBS competition. The Warriors high offensive output on the year against FBS schools was 24 against Nevada, being held to 14 or less in 3 of 5 games against FBS opposition. Colorado State on the other hand reached a peak of 22 points in the opener against Colorado.
Neither team has what you could call a potent passing game and with all the turnover problems between these two expect a steady diet of the running games.
PLAY UNDER
10-06-12 UNLV v. Louisiana Tech OVER 69 31-58 Win 100 76 h 58 m Show
385/386 UNLV at Louisiana Tech
The Rebels are a much improved offensive team after scoring 17.3 and 18.4 points per game the last two seasons. The signal caller actually has the ability to throw downfield which is something this team lacked the last few years. Nick Sherry is a very talented but young quarterback that keeps defenses honest by not keying on the running game. This team scored 38 against Air Force and 27 vs Washington State, two teams with similar defenses to Louisiana Tech. Defensively the Rebels have permitted at least 30 points to every FBS squad they faced this year, although the Minnesota game did go into triple overtime. Each of the last three opponents totaled 35 and we see this explosive Bulldog offense easily surpassing that total.
Louisiana Tech is averaging 52 points per game. They scored 52 against a Big 10 defense and 44 last week against a decent Virginia stop unit. The total points scored in their four games were 105, 93, 76 and 82. UNLV has the worst passing defense they have faced, so it will be easy picking for this Bulldogs squad offensively. Defense is an entirely different matter for this team. Only the offensively inept Illinois team failed to reach 37 points against the Bulldogs, and they managed 24. Louisiana Tech reminds us of those old Denver Nuggets teams of the NBA. They wanted to score so many points they let the other team score at will just so they could get the ball back. Last week Virginia averaged a whopping 11.4 yards per pass attempt against this team and the Cavaliers have a very weak passing game.
UNLV gave up 35 points to Washington State only because Mike Leach doesn't have a clue. If he had continued to attack the Rebels through the air his team would have easily surpassed 50, Sonny Dykes isn't so forgiving.
PLAY OVER
09-08-12 Akron v. Florida International OVER 53.5 Top 38-41 Win 100 77 h 6 m Show
379 Akron at Florida International
The Zips have a new coaching staff led by Terry Bowden who came to fame at Auburn and being the son of Bobby Bowden. The rotund coach wants to speed up the game and keep the ball in the air. They did just that against Central Florida producing 81 plays while the Zips averaged just 66 snaps a year ago. New signal caller Dalton Williams looks to be a major upgrade at the quarterback position from a year ago as Clayton Moore was a fill-in at best behind center. The numbers won't show it because of many dropped passes but Williams really impressed in his first game at Akron.
Defensively the Zips are very small along the line and Central Florida just handed the ball off with great success. Akron allowed 4.9 yards per carry a season ago and the Knights pounded the Zips for 4.5 ypc last week. We look for more of the same from a Florida International team that ran the ball for 4.0 and 4.7 ypc the last two seasons.
Mario Cristobal has done a great job at Florida International since taking over an 0-12 team in 2007. Last year the Panthers went 8-5 and participated in a bowl game. His team took a major jump defensively a year ago going from 27.3 ppg allowed to 19.5. Despite returning 10 starters to that side of the field they are bound for some regression.
Akron has been a sieve defensively on the road as of late allowing 68, 51, 35, 31, 59, 42, 37, 30 and 38 points the last nine away from home. In fact, the Zips have permitted 27 points or more in 15 straight road games. Last year FIU won 27-17 in Akron but the Zips have a far more dynamic offense this year, and the plays will be coming fast and furious. More plays equal more scoring opportunities and we want to get ahead of the crowd early as we expect Akron's totals to skyrocket.
PLAY OVER
11-25-11 Arkansas v. LSU OVER 52 Top 17-41 Win 100 43 h 48 m Show
129/130 Arkansas at LSU
This is a huge game in not only the SEC but on a national level. Since Bobby Petrino has been at Arkansas he has had great offensive success against some pretty good LSU defenses, putting up 31, 30 and 31 points. The Razorbacks are in terrific offensive form scoring 44, 49 and 44 points the last three weeks. Doing so against the stiff defensive talent of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina. In fact, Arkansas has put up 26 points or more in 18 of their last 19 games. The last five meetings in this series have produced point totals of 54, 63, 61, 98 and 57, all higher than the Vegas line in this match-up.
LSU has put up 35 points or more in all but two games all season, against Alabama and Mississippi State. While Arkansas can put points up on just about anybody this Razorback defense has some problems.
Both teams should be able to trade points here as Arkansas has the passing game and team speed to stretch the field against the Tigers. We look for a high scoring contest in a game where neither team will be looking to milk the clock.
PLAY OVER
10-01-11 Arizona v. USC UNDER 57 41-48 Loss -105 26 h 50 m Show
161/162 Arizona at USC
Big step down defensively for the Wildcats after facing Oklahoma State, Oregon and Stanford. USC has been held to 23 points or less in 3 of 4 games with 38 hosting Syracuse being the only offensive success. The Orangemen had to travel the entire length of the country for that payday. Series history shows point totals of 45, 38, 27, 33 and 23 points the last five meetings. USC lost the football four times last week so we expect Lane Kiffin to feature the run this week in order to lessen turnovers, but to also keep talented Arizona QB Foles on the sideline.
Arizona was held to 14 at Oklahoma State and 10 hosting Stanford. They haven't scored more than 21 points in any of the last eight meetings with the Trojans. We look for history to repeat itself here as this game stays comfortably under the posted total.
PLAY UNDER
10-14-10 Kansas State Wildcats v. Kansas Jayhawks UNDER 50.5 Top 59-7 Loss -110 22 h 39 m Show
Kansas State at Kansas
These two teams combined for 27 total points a year ago and the way they have played offensively thus far we could see another contest dominated by the defenses. Kansas State has extra time to prepare after allowing Nebraska a whopping 48 points a week ago in front of a nationwide offense. That game was all about the big plays for the Cornhuskers and Kansas simply doesn't have that type of offensive speed. For example Kansas State held their four previous opponents to 22, 24, 20 and 13 points. Offensively the Wildcats are only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, and only Central Florida has any type of defensive skill. The total points scored in that game was 30.
Kansas also has extra time to prepare off a 55-7 blowout loss to Baylor. The 55 points scored by the Bears in the most points Kansas has allowed in close to two years. With extra preparation time what do you think the Kansas coaching staff was working on.....defense. Offensively Kansas has yet to face a defensive unit as good as the one they will take on Thursday night. The Jayhawks scored 3 against FCS entrant North Dakota State. They did put up 28 against a bad Georgia Tech stop unit as well as 42 against what could be the worst team in the FBS in New Mexico State. But against decent FBS defenses Kansas scored 16 at Southern Miss and 7 at Baylor.
History is going to show that points are plenty in this series but those Wildcat and Jayhawks offenses were far superior to these units. With both teams off downright bad defensive games in which these clubs combined for a minus 5 turnover margin, we expect conservative game plans and field position battles.
PLAY UNDER
10-13-10 Central Florida v. Marshall OVER 44 35-14 Win 100 9 h 29 m Show
Central Florida at Marshall
We tend to view what we have seen recently as more important than what we have seen in the past, it's just a common human trait. The last time we saw Central Florida they had completely shut down UAB last Wednesday in front of a national audience. But that game was a huge one for the Knights who were off a loss at Kansas State. They also had an extra week to prepare for the Blazers and they held UAB to just 7 points. Now the Knights take on a desperate Marshall team who has an extra week of preparation after scoring just 16 points in their last game at Southern Miss.
The last four meetings in this series have resulted in an average of 47.5 points per game. With Central Florida coming in on a defensive high and the Thundering Herd off a poor offensive performance we find value in playing this one over the posted total. We made the total on this game 48.6 which puts us squarely on the over here. UCF has played very limited offensive squads thus far and while Marshall isn't an offensive powerhouse they have put up 21 points or more in all but two games this season and that counts an opening week trip to Columbus to take on the now number one ranked Buckeyes. Defensively the Thundering Herd has permitted at least 23 points to every opponent including a struggling Bowling Green squad who lit up this stop unit for 44 points. UCF has only been held in check offensively by Kansas State and NC State, two likely bowl teams come seasons end. We expect the talented freshman signal caller for UCF to have his best game of the season.
PLAY OVER
10-08-10 Connecticut Huskies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights OVER 41.5 24-27 Win 100 24 h 22 m Show
Connecticut at Rutgers
The linesmaker and the betting public tend to think that what they have seen in the recent past is sure to be what we see in the future. But in most cases teams make adjustments and the opposite is true. Take for example the defenses of both of these clubs. UConn is known to be a team that is tough on the defensive end holding the opposition to less than 24 points per game in each of the last three seasons. This year they kept an explosive Michigan team to only 30 points while allowing 30, 21 and 21 the last three games. What you don't see is that every one of those last three opponents faced are defensive first teams. Temple, Buffalo and Vanderbilt are all teams with serious offensive questions, yet they scored very well against this Huskie defense.
Rutgers has shown next to nothing offensively this year scoring just 19 against Florida International, 13 against North Carolina and 14 last week against Tulane. But like the UConn opponents all of these teams are better defensively than offensively. Because of the opponents played the Rutgers offensive numbers have been skewed down just like those of the Huskies.
History shows that this series has produced 50 points or more 5 of the last 7 years. With both teams happy with their defensive numbers what do you think these clubs have worked on during the week, offensive improvement. Especially from a Rutgers team off back to back losses and now playing in front of national TV cameras. Totals in this range are reserved for dominating defensive teams and based on the opponents played thus far these teams are not dominant on that side of the ball. We take advantage of public perception and go contrarian here.
PLAY OVER
09-16-10 Cincinnati v. North Carolina State UNDER 55 19-30 Win 100 19 h 6 m Show
Cincinnati at North Carolina State
The Bearcats have gotten off to a slow start under new coach Butch Davis. They lost at Fresno State by 14 before knocking off Indiana State last week 40-7. The offense which averaged a whopping 38.6 ppg last year has struggled early on. In fact, they have scored just 26 points in the first half thus far this season. The offensive line has had some problems and Zach Collaros hasn't been as successful behind center as he was last year when Tony Pike was injured. Cincinnati hasn't been able to stretch the field like they have in the past. Defensively the Bearcats haven't allowed more than 23.1 ppg in any season covering the past four years. Despite having just 5 returning starters the stop unit once again looks to be a strength.
The Wolfpack moved the ball at will against Western Carolina in the opener but it took a 5 turnover advantage to put up 28 points last week against a very good Central Florida squad. NC State currently leads the ACC in total defense and they look much improved on the 31.2 ppg they allowed last season.
The Cincinnati defense has played really well this week in practice as they become even more accustomed to the defensive sets. Coach O'Brien has talked about running the football more this week in order to balance the offense and keep the Bearcat offense off the field. With two teams having improved stop units we look for a lower scoring affair.
PLAY UNDER