15 Vegas at Minnesota

Once again the Knights dominated play and failed to get the win. On the season Vegas is 4-2 when in revenge for losing a game the advanced stats show should have been a win. Interesting side bar for Vegas is that in four years of postseason play they still haven’t clinched a series in front of the home crowd.

Minnesota was a house of horrors for this team previously, but that is no longer the case with the road team dominating on the scoreboard.

PLAY VEGAS

9 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders

This has been an extremely tight series like we expected. It’s been a clear zig zag series like you would expect from these two squads. With Pittsburgh losing at home last time out in a game it should have won, based on the advanced stats. The Penguins are 5-2 on the season in revenge, when losing a game it fared better in the advanced stats. Look for the road team to come out with a little more fight tonight.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

40 Vegas at Minnesota

Being a season ticket holder we went to the first two games in Las Vegas. After watching those games in person, and viewing the regular season games on television, it’s clear that these two teams are equal against each other. While the Golden Knights have dominated against the bottom feeders of the division, Minnesota has the speed and talent to match up extremely well in this series. 

While the Knights grabbed the 3-1 victory on Tuesday, the Wild were the more consistent team throughout the game. Now going up north to Minnesota, we expect a big bounce back from the host. Considering that Vegas has won once in regulation in four years in Minnesota, and the Knights are off a satisfying victory, it’s time for the Wild to shine.

PLAY MINNESOTA

28 Winnipeg at Edmonton

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Edmonton 18th. In xG/60 the Jets are -0.29 and the Oilers are -0.02. So the Oilers are much better than the actual goals scored would suggest. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 9th and Edmonton 1st. In xG/60 we find the Jets +6.34 and the Oilers +7.89. Over 1 1/2 goals per 60 minutes on the power play for the host.

Playing Short Handed the Jets rank 10th and the Oilers 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.91 and Edmonton -7.00. So virtually equal when looking at expected goals.

Edmonton won 7 of 9 in this series, outscoring the Jets 34-23. There are only two quality teams coming out of Canada in these playoffs, Toronto and Edmonton. We will gladly lay the price here to get the Oilers at home. 

PLAY EDMONTON

14 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh

We played the Islanders in the first game of this series, and came away with a nice overtime victory. But in watching that game it was clear that Pittsburgh was the better team. The Penguins have a 4-2 record in revenge after outplaying the opposition and still losing. Now back home down 0-1 we have to expect a rebound from the Penguins on Tuesday. This team posted a 22-4-2 record on this ice during the regular season. And the Islanders won only 11 of 28 total games on the road.  Lay it with the host.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

1 Boston at Washington

Now that the Capitals took the first game, we have a solid opportunity on Boston to even the series.

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Bruins are 12th and the Capitals 4th. In xG/60 we find Boston +0.27 and Washington +0.15. So regression is in store for the visitor.

On the Power Play Washington ranks 8th and Boston 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Bruins +5.31 and the Capitals +6.41. A sizable advantage for the host.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Boston ranks 3rd and Washington 5th. In xG/60 the Bruins are -3.92 and the Capitals -5.27. A terrific advantage for Boston, as Washington is overrated in the rankings.

Boston should have won the first game and now Washington is having a weaker goaltending situation.

PLAY BOSTON

37 Minnesota at St Louis

The Wild were embarrassed yesterday and we expect a major bounce back. They are 6-3 this year playing in the second game of a back to back situation. 

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Wild rank 9th and the Blues 19th. In xG/60 we find Minnesota +0.20 and St Louis -0.33.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and St Louis 4th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.13 and the Blues +6.02. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Wild Rank 11th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 we find Minnesota -5.23 and St Louis -7.63.

The only advantage St Louis has is on the Power Play, but that is overshadowed by the other two situations for Minnesota.

PLAY MINNESOTA

9 Ottawa at Calgary

Must win game for the Flames as they are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. Which is why this line is so high. But we’ve always said that teams in must win games must not be very good to put themselves in this type of situation. Over the last ten games Calgary has gone 5-5-0 and Ottawa 8-1-1. The Sens have played three more games but have two more points than Calgary. After spending the entire season in dead last this team can finish the season in fifth place. So even though Ottawa played yesterday, in their minds they are also motivated in this contest.

In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Ottawa ranking 26th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sens -0.19 and the Flames +0.17.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Calgary 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Senators +5.36 and the Flames +5.36, exactly even.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Senators are ranked 13th and the Flames 21st. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.94 and Calgary -5.68.

White the Flames need to win this game to keep their season alive, the numbers say these two teams are close to even. A huge advantage in price for the Senators. By the way, Ottawa has taken six of eight games in this series this season. 

PLAY OTTAWA

57 Detroit at Columbus

In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Columbus 30th. In xG/60 we find the Red Wings -0.4 and the Blue Jackets -0.46.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 its the Red Wings at +4.14 and the Blue Jackets at +3.82. So the Red Wings are better than the actual goals suggest.

Playing Short Handed Detroit ranks 28th and Columbus 15th. In xG/60 we find the Wings -6.78 and the Jackets -5.11. A substantial advantage for the host.

Detroit leads the season series four to three, and this is the final game of the season for both these squads. The Red Wings came into the season with no expectations at all. While the Blue Jackets expected to make the playoffs. We expect the visitor to come out with more energy as this team has played pretty well down the stretch. Columbus not so much.

PLAY DETROIT 

46 St Louis at Vegas

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Knights 3rd. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.32 and Vegas +0.38. A solid .70 goals advantage per 60 minutes for the host.

On the Power Play St Louis ranks 3rd and Vegas 15th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find the Blues +5.97 and the Knights +7.20. So there is major regression on the horizon for both these teams, with Vegas having a sizable expected goal advantage.

On the Penalty Kill St Louis ranks 27th and Vegas 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues -7.67 and the Knights -5.14. A major advantage of over 2.5 goals per 60 minutes playing short handed. 

Vegas is 4-2 in the season series with one of the losses coming in a shootout. The line is cheap here because many expect a letdown after finally winning in Minnesota a couple days ago. Normally that would be a concern, but a similar situation occurred about a week ago. The Knights had just beaten Colorado in an important game to bring their winning streak to ten games. They traveled to Arizona and were dominated by the Coyotes 3-0. The team as a whole talked about taking that game for granted and said they couldn’t afford to do that again. With that situation fresh in their minds we expect 100% effort from the host tonight. Look for the Knights to make a statement against their likely first round playoff opponent.

PLAY VEGAS

73 Vegas at Arizona

Somewhat surprised by the value on the Knights here, based on the team with the league wide highest winning streak this season. Sure Vegas is off that key game with Colorado, but what have they shown to not be a substantial favorite here? Vegas is 16-7-0 on the road this season, while Arizona is only 11-10-3 at home. The Knights are on a 7-1 run away from home, and are 5-1 vs the Coyotes on the year.

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 2nd and the Coyotes rank 21st. In xG/60 We find Vegas at +0.42 and Arizona -0.25.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 18th and the Coyotes 23rd. In xG/60 Vegas is +7.13 and Arizona +4.79. A huge advantage for the visitor. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 2nd and Arizona 18th. In xG/60 we find the Knights -5.33 and the Coyotes -7.71. Another major advantage for the visitor.

We played Dallas at Detroit in this price range earlier, and the Stars completely dominated the game. They had to go to overtime to win, but the stats showed it was a complete mismatch. This looks like the strongest road favorite value on the season, despite having to lay close to -200. This line should be much higher.

PLAY VEGAS

38 St Louis at Minnesota

Many will look at this as a must win for the Blues, who are fighting off Arizona to make the playoffs. But Minnesota only sits a point behind Colorado and five behind Vegas for the divisional title. 

St Louis is off back to back upsets of the Avalanche, and face Minnesota five times down the stretch.

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -0.31 and Minnesota +0.12. 

On the Power Play St Louis ranks 6th and Minnesota 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues +5.87 and the Wild 5.84. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Blues rank 28th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -7.98 and Minnesota -4.91. A major advantage for the host.

St Louis has been a solid 12-8-2 on the road this year, but the Wild has been an outstanding 17-4-0 in this building. Let’s lay it with the far better team.

PLAY MINNESOTA

69 Colorado at St Louis

Important game for the Avalanche who are now trailing the red hot Golden Knights. Neither team wants to have to face Minnesota in the first round, so clinching first place is extremely big in this division.

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and St Louis 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche +0.90 and the Blues -0.30. A full 1.2 goals better in 60 minutes of 5x5 play.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 4th and St Louis 8th. In xG/60 the Avalanche are +7.96 and the Blues +5.86. Over two full goals per 60 minutes of power play time.

Playing Short Handed the Avalanche rank 8th and the Blues 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Colorado is -5.06 and St Louis -6.53. Basically a 1 1/2 goal per 60 minutes advantage for the visitor. 

Colorado is 5-2 in this series and are off a loss. Look for the much better team to get the victory on Monday.

PLAY COLORADO

47 Dallas at Detroit

Not many times will we recommend a team as an away favorite in this price range. But a look at the stats shows this line should be much higher.

In 5x5 G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Detroit 24th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.23 and the Red Wings -0.26. So about 1/2 goal advantage for the visitor in a full 60 minutes of 5x5 play.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 7th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.47 and the Red Wings +4.31. Over two goals per 60 minutes advantage on the Power Play.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Stars rank 20th and the Red Wings 29th. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.14 and Detroit is -6.55.

Major advantages across the board for the Stars, along with revenge for an embarrassing 7-3 loss on Thursday. Dallas has won 5 of the 7 games played between these two this season. The Stars worst goal prevention on the season was allowing five goals twice. Now off a seven goal effort look for Dallas to clamp down majorly on Saturday.

PLAY DALLAS

35 Nashville at Chicago

We were extremely lucky to cash with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, as the Preds completely outplayed them. While we are not giving the money back, we had a wrong side winner in that contest. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 Nashville ranks 18th and Chicago 8th. In xG/60 the Preds are -0.01 and the Blackhawks come in at -0.40. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Nashville ranking 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 the Predators are +4.92 and the Blackhawks are +5.06. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 28th and Chicago 26th. In xG/60 we see the Preds -5.95 and the Blackhawks -5.71. 

The Predators have won 5 of 6 meetings this year and should have won Wednesday. They bounce back here in a big way.

PLAY NASHVILLE

27 Ottawa at Vancouver

Going unnoticed by the casual fan, the Senators are playing well right now. Coming off a 4-2 road win at Calgary along with a 4-0 victory at Montreal. Previously they spit a two game home series with Winnipeg, outscoring them 6-5. And they also took Toronto to the wire in a 6-5 loss on the road. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 Vancouver ranks 19th and Ottawa 31st. But in xG/60 in 5x5 action the Canucks are -0.46 and the Senators -0.33. So positive regression is in store for the visitor.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Vancouver 25th. In xG/60 we see the Senators +5.25 and the Canucks +5.61.

Playing Short Handed the Senators are 18th, and the Canucks 21st in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -6.38 and Vancouver -7.36. A major advantage for the visitor.

Vancouver is 5-0 on the season vs Ottawa, but these teams aren’t the same as they were in January. The last two meetings in March were both decided after regulation. Look for Ottawa to get the nice underdog victory tonight.

PLAY OTTAWA

9 Florida at Tampa Bay

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Lightning 7th. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.32 and Tampa +0.23. So nice regression is in store for the Panthers.

On the Power Play Florida ranks 11th and Tampa Bay 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +6.98 and the Lightning +6.13. So major positive regression is in store for Florida. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida comes in ranked 16th and Tampa Bay 9th. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.12 and the Lightning -4.85. A substantial advantage for the host.

With these two battling for the second time in three days, we will look for Florida to even the series. The Panthers deserved better than an overtime loss on Wednesday.

PLAY FLORIDA

44 Anaheim at San Jose

Both these teams are poor skating 5x5 in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 25th. In xG/60 we see the Ducks at -0.42 and the Sharks +0.04. So we can expect major positive regression for San Jose.

Once again both teams have looked bad on the Power Play in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks dead last at 31st and San Jose is 26th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Anaheim +6.69 and the Sharks +6.28. So Anaheim has a bit of positive regression on its way. 

On the Penalty Kill Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Ducks are -6.55 and the Sharks -5.74. A nice advantage for the host. 

Anaheim has two wins in six games this month, both against these Sharks in this building. This is the third game in four days for Anaheim. This is the final game of a 1-3 home stand for the Sharks who then travel to Minnesota and Vegas. This is the game San Jose has to have and we believe they get it.

PLAY SAN JOSE

29 Florida at Dallas

Quick turnaround game after the Stars beat the Panthers 4-1 on Saturday. Dallas lost at Nashville in a shootout between these two Florida contests.

In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 13th and Dallas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.33 and the Stars +0.16. So slight regression in the favor of the visitor.

On the Power Play the Panthers rank 11th and the Stars 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see Florida +6.76 and Dallas +6.58. Another situation that suggests Florida positive regression.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida ranks 15th and Dallas 22nd. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.17 and the Stars -6.18.

Dallas is playing its third game in five days, so the rest and the revenge factor is in play for the visitor. With a solid 12-8-1 record on the road we will back the Panthers here.

PLAY FLORIDA

10 Arizona at Los Angeles

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 20th and the Kings 22nd. In xG/60 we see Arizona at -0.28 and LA at -0.42.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Coyotes are ranked 23rd and the Kings 11th. In xG/60 we find Arizona +4.48 and Los Angeles +6.55. A significant advantage for the host.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 12th and LA 7th. In xG/60 we see the Coyotes at -8.12 and the Kings -6.68. Another nice advantage for the host. 

After falling behind 3-0 on Monday, the Coyotes never stood a chance. We look for the host to get its revenge Wednesday.

PLAY LOS ANGELES

45 Vegas at St Louis

Must win game for the Golden Knights who just dropped three straight at home to the Kings and the Wild. After this two game series with St Louis the schedule gets easier with contests against Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose. The bottom four teams in the division. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 8th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 Vegas is +0.12 and St Louis -0.18.

On the Power Play Vegas ranks 21st and St Louis 11th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Knights +6.23 and the Blues +6.04. So these two are much closer than the actual goals scored would tell.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 7th and St Louis 25th. In xG/60 the Golden Knights are -5.88 and the Blues -7.89. A huge advantage for the visitor.

PLAY VEGAS

32 Dallas at Carolina

This is the fourth game of a six game road trip for the Stars. Carolina is in the midst of its longest home stand of the season. The Hurricanes have lost in regulation just twice all season, one coming yesterday to these Stars. 

In 5x5 action G+-/60 numbers Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.24 and the Hurricanes +0.39.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Stars rank 9th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Dallas at +6.43 and Carolina +6.42. Virtually even, and positive regression for Dallas.

On the Penalty Kill Dallas ranks 24th and Carolina 6th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Stars are -6.37 and the Hurricanes -4.13, a huge advantage for the host. 

We played Dallas yesterday and were rewarded with a victory. Today we look for the Hurricanes to even up the weekend series.

PLAY CAROLINA

23 San Jose at Los Angeles

In 5x5 G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Los Angeles 21st. In xG/60 we find the Sharks -0.01 and the Kings -0.41. So luck has been on the side of Los Angeles when skating at full strength. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 23rd and LA 10th. In xG/60 we see the Sharks +6.65 and the Kings +6.44. So San Jose has played much better than the actual goals scored, LA is in for some negative regression. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 16th and Los Angeles 6th. But when looking at the advanced metric of xG/60 we find the Sharks -5.53 and the Kings -6.26. So there is likely heavy regression for both these teams. 

The actual goal scoring numbers have these two rated very equally, but the advanced stats show the wrong team is favored. The Sharks dominated play yesterday against the top goalie of the Kings, we look for more domination tonight.

PLAY SAN JOSE

61 Toronto at Winnipeg

The Maple Leafs are the clearly better team and the scheduling situation shows a level playing field.

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 7th and the Jets 14th. In xG/60 its Toronto +0.50 and Winnipeg -0.36.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 4th and Winnipeg 5th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.14 and the Jets +6.09. The advanced stat shows Toronto to be far superior than the actual results.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we find Toronto ranking 21st and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 the Maple Leafs are -4.75 and the Jets -6.43. So we can look forward to positive regression for Toronto, and negative regression for the host. This should be a dominant game for the Maple Leafs.

PLAY TORONTO

53 Carolina at Chicago

In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 9th and Chicago 24th. Looking at the advanced stats of G/60 we see the Hurricanes +0.29 and the Blackhawks at 0.39. That’s a sizable margin for the visitor.

Both teams excel on the Power Play in G+-/60 with the Hurricanes ranking 1st and the Hawks 6th. In xG/60 Carolina is +6.48 and Chicago +5.17. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 5th and the Blackhawks 25th. In xG/60 we find Carolina -3.94 and Chicago -5.85.

While the number is high for the road favorite, the revenge motive and the advanced stats put us clearly on the Hurricanes.

PLAY CAROLINA

29 San Jose at Arizona

The Sharks have played very well since opening the season with 12 straight road games. They end the month with 6 of 8 games played at home. The only road games are the two here in Arizona. 

Arizona is off a shocking upset shootout winner hosting Colorado. 

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Sharks rank 20th and the Coyotes 25th. In xG/60 we find San Jose at -0.07 and Arizona -0.31. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Arizona 25th. In xG/60 the Sharks are +6.38, and the Coyotes +4.00. A major advantage for San Jose. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Sharks are 19th, and Coyotes rank 10th. In xG/60 we find San Jose -5.77, and the Coyotes -8.22. So obviously these two have had far different luck when looking at the advanced stats. Because of that poor puck luck for the Sharks, we find plenty of value on San Jose in this one. 

PLAY SAN JOSE

15 Florida at Chicago

These two met on Tuesday with the Blackhawks winning 3-2. But that was an obvious let down spot for the Panthers who had beaten Chicago the previous Monday, and were coming off the big showdown loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 10th and the Hawks 23rd. In xG/60 we find Florida at +0.38 and Chicago -0.31. A strong advantage for the visitor.

On the Power Play both teams have fared well with Florida ranking 5th and Chicago 7th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Panthers +7.15 and the Blackhawks +5.49. A much bigger discrepancy than the actual goals.

Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Blackhawks 27th. In xG/60 we find Florida -5.78, and Chicago -5.91. Closer than the actual Penalty Killing numbers.

Chicago has been a surprise thus far, but Florida is the better team off back to back losses. Give us the Panthers to take this one.

PLAY FLORIDA

41 Carolina at Columbus

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 21st. In xG/60 we find Carolina +0.31 and Columbus -0.42. A sizable edge for the visitor.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.45 and the Jackets +3.73, a huge advantage for the visitor. 

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Canes are ranked 4th and the Jackets 21st. In xG/60 Carolina is -4.36 and Columbus -5.27. 

It’s clear Carolina is the better team here, but also the more motivated after losing three straight including two hosting these Jackets. With Tampa Bay on Saturday, it’s imperative Carolina gets those two games back in Columbus.

PLAY CAROLINA

66 Arizona at Anaheim

In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Arizona ranking 27th and Anaheim at 29th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are -0.28 and the Ducks -0.39. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 24th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.09 and the Ducks +5.50. So Anaheim is due for some positive regression.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 9th and the Ducks 25th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -8.32 and Anaheim -6.15. Once again the host is in for a large regression.

It’s rare to find a significant road favorite with these terrible advanced stats. Time to step out with a Best Bet on the host.

PLAY ANAHEIM

25 NY Islanders at Washington

Looking to back the red hot Islanders in this one. Washington played last night at Buffalo, so its the second of a back to back situation. But more importantly Washington is winning lately but against some of the lesser teams in the division, Buffalo, New Jersey and Philadelphia. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 the Islanders rank 3rd and the Capitals 7th. In xG/60 we find NY at +0.51 and Washington at +0.10. 

On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 17th and the Capitals 11th. Looking at xG/60 NY is +6.87 and Washington +6.35. So positive regression is on the side of the visitor.

Looking at the Penalty Kill we see the Islanders 7th and the Capitals 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 NY is -5.48 and Washington -5.22. Slightly better for the host. 

PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS

42 Vegas at Minnesota

The Knights have the longest winning streak in the league, with the Wild contributing to that streak. But if you watched that series the games were much closer than the final scores would indicate.

In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find both teams having great success. The Knights rank 5th and the Wild 4th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play the Knights are +0.12 and the Wild +0.52. 

On the Power Play Vegas has a solid advantage in ranking at 19th to dead last 31st for the Wild. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.66 and Minnesota +6.10. Closer than the actual goals would suggest.

On the Penalty Kill we find both teams having success. Vegas ranks 3rd and the Wild are 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.23 and the Wild -4.42. So we can expect a better performance for the Wild. 

Give us the Wild here to get back into the win column, as Vegas is a bit fat and happy to trust them in the road favorite role.

PLAY MINNESOTA

41 Carolina at Nashville

Getting quite a bit of line value here with the visitor. In G+-/60 in 5x5 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Predators are 29th. In xG/60 Carolina is +0.28 and Nashville +0.03. So Nashville is playing much better than its results, yet still well behind in this matchup.

On the Power Play Carolina ranks 1st and Nashville 22nd. Looking at xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.84, while the Preds are 5.79. Better than the actual ranking for the host, but still far behind the league leader.

On the Penalty Kill we find the Hurricanes ranking 9th and the Predators 28th. Via xG/60 Carolina is -3.86, Nashville -6.29. That’s the major difference as Nashville is horrendous on the penalty kill. Let’s lay it with confidence.

PLAY CAROLINA

4 Dallas at Florida

Quick revenge game for the Panthers who were shutout last night 3-0. When looking at G+-/60 5x5 rankings Dallas is 8th and Florida is 10th. The Stars are +0.39, the Panthers +0.28. In xG/60 Dallas is +0.17 and Florida +0.29. So slight value on the host.

Looking at Power Play numbers these two are tied at 9.8 xG/60 which ranks 7th. But in looking at the advanced stats we find Dallas at +6.40 and Florida at +8.23. A larger advantage for the host.

Taking a look at the Penalty Kill units, we find the Stars ranked 20th at -7.28, and the Panthers 15th at -6.15. The advanced stats are -6.93 for Dallas and -6.02 for the Panthers. So once again Florida has the edge. That coupled with home loss revenge from last night puts us squarely on the host.

PLAY FLORIDA

89 Minnesota at Colorado

Like the big underdog price here for the Wild, after Colorado played a tough four game series vs the Golden Knights. That was a huge series for both clubs as they are expected to be title contenders in the west. 

Looking at the numbers we find both teams slightly underrated in 5x5 play. Colorado with an xG/60 of +0.35 and Minnesota at +0.39. 

Colorado ranks 10th in Power Play G+-/60, Minnesota 25th. But the advanced stats has these two much closer. In xG/60 on the Power Play the Avalanche are +6.80, the Wild at +5.39.

Looking at Penalty Killing these clubs are both excellent ranking 2 and 3 on the season. But the advanced numbers have Minnesota slightly better in xG/60 at -4.28 and Colorado at -6.21. 

These two clubs are very similar when looking at expected goals. That and the bad spot for the Avalanche put us squarely on the underdog here.

PLAY MINNESOTA

88 Columbus at Carolina

The Blue Jackets with a quick one game series with the Hurricanes a week after splitting two games at home. Both games were decided by a single tally in regulation. Columbus ranks 20th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action, being outscored by 0.22 goals. In looking at xGF/60 in 5x5 the Blue Jackets sit at -0.44. So they have been slightly lucky.

Carolina ranks 7th in G+-/60 at +0.59 goals, while the xGF/60 in 5x5 action is 0.66. Neither team has given up a goal when on the power play with Columbus scoring 7 times, and Carolina 10 times. Columbus is -6 goals when on a penalty kill, the Hurricanes -8 goals. 

Carolina returns home after traveling to Chicago, Columbus and Dallas. This is just the fourth home game of the season for the host, currently 3-0 on the year. While we don’t normally like to back a team coming home from a road trip, the exception is a holiday such as Valentines Day. It’s a time to show appreciation for your wives and family, and that’s a positive thing.

PLAY CAROLINA

74 Carolina at Dallas

Dallas has beaten up on bad teams thus far, but have struggled when stepping up in class. But we did see a light at the end of the tunnel on Thursday. Despite the 5-3 loss, Dallas dominated play. Winning expected goals 3.90-3.39. Looking at the Money Puck Deserve to Win O’Meter, the Stars should have won 72.9% of games with those shooting stats. 

The teams are very similar on the penalty kill, but Dallas is superior on the power play. The Stars rank 10th in xGF% as opposed to Carolina which is 16th. Dallas is +14 goals with a player advantage, the Canes just +9. Look for Dallas to gain confidence off that defeat and even up this series.

PLAY DALLAS

22 Winnipeg at Calgary

The Jets have a slightly positive 5x5 G+-/60 at 0.09, but looking at expected goals the deficit is more pronounced at -0.34. The Jets are 7-3-1 on the season but have only outscored the opposition in 5x5 23 to 21. 

The Flames are 5-5-1 on the year but have outscored the opposition 19 to 16 in 5x5 play. The Flames have a G+-/60 on 5x5 of 0.33. It holds up in expected goals at 0.27. We will back the host tonight in what is a very fair number.

PLAY CALGARY

26 Nashville at Florida

The Panthers dominated play yesterday and let a win slip through their fingers. We expect a similar game with different results here. In 5x5 play this season the Preds are being outscored by 0.07 G/60, the expected goal differential is -0.05. Florida has been the much better team at +0.36 G/60, and an even better 0.42 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. The Panthers rank 9th in xGF% in 5x5 while the Preds sit 17th. Better team with motivation puts us squarely on the home squad.

PLAY FLORIDA

34 Columbus at Chicago

By our numbers the Blue Jackets are one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 action they have produced a xGF% of 45.21 which ranks 27th, yet they have outscored the opposition 17 to 16. Chicago on the other hand have an xGF% of 48.21 but have been outscored 18 to 11.

In Friday’s matchup Columbus won 2-1 but were completely dominated. Chicago had a whopping 69.86 xGF% and should have won the game 3.41 to 1.47 according to Evolving Hockey. Now with a day off we expect a better outcome for the Blackhawks.

PLAY CHICAGO

15 Buffalo at Washington

Senators will be short handed tonight with the Covid news affecting key players. Even at full strength this team has been a bit overrated this year. Washington ranks 23rd in 5 on 5 xGF%. They have outscored the opposition 5 on 5 12-7 but are only showing 45.79% in xGF%. Now without key pieces we expect this team to struggle. 

As opposed to Washington, Buffalo is a team we want to play on. Despite the 1-3-0 record this team ranks 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 xGF% of 58.61. The Sabres have been outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5, but deserve a much better result. 

PLAY BUFFALO

072 Columbus at Detroit

Really like the way Detroit played yesterday despite the loss. This is a team that doesn’t have a great deal of talent, but has been very feisty thus far.

Been looking for the chance to fade the Blue Jackets, and this looks like a terrific squad. Clear fade of a team we feel is overrated.

PLAY DETROIT

71 Anaheim at Las Vegas

The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. 

Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches.

PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2

028 Montreal and Pittsburgh

The Canadiens pulled off the shocker in the opener as they out hustled Pittsburgh from the get go. But despite the 3-2 overtime victory, Pittsburgh dominated in expected goals. With the better defense and with their backs to the wall, we see Pittsburgh evening up this series on Monday. Pittsburgh has a distinct advantage at 5 on 5, so look for the Pens to play a much cleaner game. The special teams also favor the Pennsylvania squad, do power plays will be huge.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

004 NY Rangers and Carolina

While many feel the Rangers match up well with the Hurricanes, after winning all four regular season battles. We see it as New York was very fortunate, as Carolina had the higher expected goals in 3 of those four meetings. We are well aware of Carolina being shorthanded defensively, but our numbers clearly show this to be the much better team. The Hurricanes are our long shot to win the cup, and the price here is extremely cheap.

PLAY CAROLINA

042 Colorado at Los Angeles

The Kings have beaten the Avalanche 7 of 10 overall and 12 of 18 here at home. This is a team playing tremendous defense as of late, and are extremely underrated because of its record. Colorado is playing well right now and are the more popular team at the moment. That gives us nice value on the home underdog.

PLAY LOS ANGELES KINGS

47 Washington at Las Vegas

The Capitals are 21-7-1 on the road this season and have fond memories of clinching the title here in Vegas a couple seasons ago. Washington has won 6 of 7 in this series and look to end this three game trip with a positive performance.

Vegas has been better on the road since the coaching change. And the early start time is likely to hurt the host more than the visitor.

PLAY WASHINGTON

080 St Louis at Vancouver

With the All-Star game being in St Louis it had to be a distraction to the players and their regular routines. Tough to jump back into it on the road against a hot squad.

Vancouver have won 4 of 5 overall and are on an 11-3 run. The Canucks haven’t lost at home in eight straight games.

PLAY VANCOUVER

068 Boston at Toronto

Neither team is playing well right now, but the Bruins have more concerns than just victories. This is a team that is having major injuries woes with Senyshyn being the latest to miss time. Right now the team is without Senyshyn, DeBrusk, Backes, Kuhlman, Miller, Moore, Krug and Ritchie. You simply cannot be expected to win with that much talent sitting on the sidelines.

While Toronto isn’t fully healthy themselves, the home ice and more depth will be the difference tonight.

PLAY TORONTO

015 Boston at Carolina

The Bruins are on quite a run as they have dominated throughout the playoffs. Carolina on the other hand gave all it had in the last game and came up short. Can’t see how the host has the energy to extend this series knowing it has to win four straight. Teams in that situation have been a very poor bet in hoops and hockey history. We back the road favorite here to end this series and get the rest it needs.

PLAY BOSTON

043 Columbus at Boston

Teams with extended days off do not do well in playoff hockey, and that was Columbus in the opening game. Still the Blue Jackets took Boston to overtime in that contest. The damage was done in the first period and the visitor was the better team thereafter. Now that both teams are on even rest we will side with the road team here. There has been little to no home ice advantage in the playoffs for an extended period of time. We like the nice plus price in this one.

PLAY COLUMBUS

084 San Jose at Las Vegas

As a season ticket holder for the Vegas Golden Knights, we know this team better than any other in the NHL. We’ve either attended or watched the first five games of this series. After taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, the Knights simply went through the motions back in San Jose. Once they fell behind early the team simply bided its time waiting to return to the comforts of home today. 

Vegas has dominated in this building in the playoffs the last two years, and have simply owned the Sharks here regardless of what time of season these two meet. San Jose can easily get blown out here if it doesn’t score the first goal. That’s the key. If the Sharks get on the board first it can be somewhat competitive. If Vegas scores first we expect a blowout victory. Either way we want to back the host here who will give full effort in front of the home crowd. This would be the very first series clinching home win in franchise history. The players want this badly for the home crowd.

PLAY LAS VEGAS

018 Vegas at San Jose

These two will be meeting in the first round of the playoffs, and this game means much more to the host. Vegas has dominated San Jose as of late and the host comes into this game losing seven straight games overall. The Knights are playing in the second game of a back to back, after losing at home yesterday as a -200 favorite over Minnesota. With Vegas locked into this spot in the playoffs the urgency is with the Sharks.

We expect Max Legace to get the start here and when it’s announced we expect this line to rise. Regardless if it’s Subban on a back to back or Legase, we feel the host has extreme value here. Subban is just 2-9 on the road with a poor save percentage of .890. Either way the Sharks are the play.

PLAY SAN JOSE

034 Buffalo at Ottawa

Wrong team favored here by our numbers. Hutton is 5-14-3 on the road with a save percentage of .899. Anderson is 11-10-2 at home with a save percentage of .917. Overall the Sabers are 11-22-5 on the road and playing in a back to back situation. In fact, Buffalo is playing its third game in four days. The Sabers are on an 0-10-2  run on the road, yet this team is a slight favorite here. Ottawa isn’t very good but this line is crazy. 

PLAY OTTAWA

059 St Louis at Buffalo

Both teams should be a bit tired here playing its fourth game in six days. The Blues have been excellent on the road with a 20-12-5 record and Jake Allen has produced a road save percentage of .925. We’ve been looking for a reasonable number to go against these Sabres. This is a team that was a major surprise early in the season. But over the later part of the schedule Buffalo has looked like the bad team it was a year ago.

PLAY ST LOUIS BLUES

005 Montreal at NY Islanders

The Canadiens come into this game in great shape injury wise, and we much prefer Carey Price in goal. He has an outstanding .918 save percentage playing on the road. While the Islanders are 21-11-4 at home this year, the short number tells you all you need to know about who the wise guys like. We agree with the move and love the Canadiens chances at plus money.

PLAY MONTREAL

075 Winnipeg at Carolina

Too much value not to jump on the underdog here. Starting goalie Hellebuyck is out tonight and the line has jumped. But we like Laurent Brossoit in goal as his overall save percentage is actually better than the starter. The 30 cent jump is way more than what we would expect, so we now have solid value on the Jets.

PLAY WINNIPEG

57 Dallas at Chicago

Nice price on the visitor who has a new lease on life after bringing in Zuccarello and Lovejoy via trades. Both players are expected to take the ice today which will be a nice jolt for the Stars. Dallas is playing its fourth game in six days, but the team is a respectable 4-4-1 in that situation. 

Cam Ward is in goal for the Blackhawks and his home save percentage of .899 is worse than either Dallas goalie on the road.

PLAY DALLAS

73 Boston at Las Vegas

We are well aware on the Bruins fourth game in six days, but there is no way we want any part of this fading Knights team as a favorite. Halak has been a hot goaltender as of late stopping .938% of shots the past five games. Cehlarik missed the last game but we expect him back tonight. 

While Halak has been hot the same cannot be said of Fleury who has only stopped .886% of shots the past five games. In fact, things have been so bad that the team started Subban in net each of the last two games. The Knights defense has continued to turn the ball over deep in its zone, which is a major reason why the goaltending hasn’t been as good this year. The Knights had a ton of breakaway chances last season, and that has dried up this year. As a season ticket holder for the host I’m very worried about this team going forward.

PLAY BOSTON

58 Carolina at NY Rangers

Terrible scheduling spot for the visitor who is playing the second game of a back to back after a 6-5 overtime victory last night in Buffalo. This is the fourth game in six nights for the Hurricanes, while the host is well rested. Petr Mrazek is in goal for the Hurricanes and his .894 save percentage leaves much to be desired. The Rangers should get four players back for tonights contest, which should really help out the depth for New York.

PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS

29 NY Islanders at New Jersey

Lehner in net for the visitor tonight. He’s 9-6-2 on the road with a solid .928 save percentage. Overall New York is 15-9-2 on the road and this is the second game of the fathers trip. We really like to back teams when heading on the road with the parents there, as the teams seem to enjoy the rare time with family. 

While the Devils have performed well the visitor has the much higher talent level. Thought this line would be at least 10 cents higher.

PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS

035 Nashville at Las Vegas

Nashville has dropped two of three entering the fortress tonight. Ryan Johansen returns from suspension as they look to sweep the season series after a 4-1 home win in Nashville.

The Knights continue to be without Reilly Smith who is known by the players to be their most talented teammate. He has exceptional value at both ends of the ice, and his loss has been hard to overcome. 

Nice price on the underdog here as the Knights have really struggled when stepping up in class.

PLAY NASHVILLE

80 Pittsburgh at Las Vegas

Knights are 15-4-3 at home and are off back to back overall losses. But even in defeat this club continues to put the pressure on the opposition by blowing opponents away with shots on goal. While SOG doesn’t mean everything, these Knights have been getting a great deal of quality looks. The Knights have hit crossbars on a consistent basis as of yet but the back of the net isn’t being touched. Still when handicapping the NHL you have to handicap much deeper than final scores. 

Pittsburgh should be running on fumes tonight in the second of a back to back after winning in overtime last night in Phoenix. This club has played a lot of hockey lately, as opposed to the well rested host.

PLAY LAS VEGAS

16 Las Vegas at Winnipeg

Playoff revenge is major and the Knights face a revenging team for the second straight game. Off a home loss to the physical Sharks, the Knights travel to one of the toughest places to win in the league on Tuesday. 

The Jets had just come off a tough seven game series against the Western Conference favorite Nashville. Then had to turn around and face the rested Knights. Now we get Winnipeg facing the Knights on even ground. Cheap number for the revenging host.

PLAY WINNIPEG

041 Edmonton at Arizona

Two struggling teams go at it in the desert tonight. But we much prefer the visitor here in a current underdog role. After coming up empty on a five game home stand, we expect the Oilers to come out with a renewed confidence tonight in Arizona. 

The Coyotes are a mess right now and are really struggling on the defensive end. Edmonton is the more talented team and get the victory tonight.

PLAY EDMONTON

11 Minnesota at Pittsburgh

Wild have bounced back strong off an embarrassing loss of three or more goals, now on an 18-6 run in that category after losing to the Sharks 4-0 Tuesday. Minnesota is also a solid 7-8 on the road. 

Pittsburgh is playing back to back, and its fifth game in seven nights. Nice payback here for the rested underdog.

PLAY MINNESOTA

3 Detroit at Toronto

One of, if not the biggest spread of the season. But we are going to tackle the total instead of the side. Detroit is playing its third game in four days and fourth in six. When in that 4 in 6 situation the over has hit in 6 of 7 games. The last time these two played eight goals were scored. The Red Wings have scored four or more goals in 4 of 5 games as of late. Toronto has scored 24 goals in its last five games. 

PLAY OVER

065 Las Vegas at Vancouver

As a season ticket holder for the Knights we follow this team very closely. Earlier in the season with Schmidt suspended the team wasn’t gelling defensively and wasn’t using its speed advantage on the offensive end. That’s all change since the defender returned to the lineup. Now the team is back to playing the type of defense it did a year ago and the goaltending has been excellent. Because of that the offense can get a step ahead of the opposition and get easier shots on goal. We look to ride the improvement until the lines catch up to the changes. 

PLAY LAS VEGAS

009 Washington at Vegas

The Caps have won the past three games pretty convincingly. Vegas came out in the first period of the last game throwing everything it had at Washington, and still failed to score. It was by far the best the Knights had played in this series and still they couldn’t penetrate the goal. Once Vegas was called for a penalty the game shifted gears as the Washington power play went to work. That’s been the big difference in this series. The Caps have simply dominated the Knights with a man advantage. The only chance the host has tonight is to play a completely clean game, and that’s just too much to ask. The better team closes it out tonight.

PLAY WASHINGTON

008 Vegas at Washington

Very surprised by the low line here considering how difficult it has been for the Knights to get good quality shots. The Caps are playing the type of defense that Vegas played in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Before the series started we talked about the defensive edge the Knights had in this series. So far we have been completely wrong in that regard. Sure Las Vegas is putting shots on goal, but they aren’t quality shots. The only scored the Knights had in the previous game was a major mistake by the Caps goalie. Washington has been the better team thus far and to get them at home laying such a small number is a bargain. 

PLAY WASHINGTON

002 Washington at Vegas

The last time the Golden Knights entered a series with a major rest advantage it lost to Winnipeg. The Jets scored two goals right off the bat to shock the Knights. After that early explosion the team settled down and played the Jets equal through the remainder of that game. We all know what happened after that as Vegas dominated the rest of the series. Now with that knowledge we really expect the Knights to be fired up here, especially in front of the home crowd. We feel Vegas has a major defensive advantage in this game while all other edges are very slight. Look for the Knights to have a great defensive game and win a low scoring contest.

PLAY VEGAS

021 Vegas at Winnipeg

Can’t wait for this series to start with two cities going bonkers over their professional hockey teams. The Knights have a big edge in the rest department after the Jets had to go seven games to knock off Nashville. That quick turnaround really helps the visitor here. You can expect a bit of a letdown here after Winnipeg knocked off a team that had been to the championship the past two seasons. We rare the Jets as the slightly better team, and with home ice advantage Winnipeg should win this series. But this is a great opportunity for the Knights to get the early upper hand, and the underdog number is very fair.

PLAY VEGAS

053 Winnipeg at Nashville

This has been an extremely close series thus far with expected goal numbers being 15.37 for Winnipeg and 14.28 for Nashville. Since 2005 Game 7 hosts are just 27-25, so home ice hasn’t meant much. In this series the road team has won 4 of 6 games. Nashville has been here before, but that only puts more pressure on the host. We are going to back the Jets in what is a nice underdog price in what we grade as an even matchup.

PLAY WINNIPEG

025 San Jose at Las Vegas

In game one the Sharks never looked ready to play as it was the worst effort by any team I have seen all year at T-Mobile Arena. Since that game it’s been clear that the better team in this series has been San Jose. The Sharks have proven themselves to be just as fast as the Knights, and a more physical group. This is a must win game for Vegas but this team has little experience in that realm. San Jose has far more playoff experience obviously and the price is very favorable.

PLAY SAN JOSE

26 Las Vegas at Los Angeles

The first two games have been defensive struggles with both goalies doing outstanding work. Neither team is able to get off many clean shots as the defenses have been swarming. In almost eight full periods these two have combined for a total of four goals. When playing five on five the offenses have been dominated. No reason to expect anything different here.

PLAY UNDER

56 Los Angeles at Las Vegas

Aware that there has been a Kings suspension today for a violent hit in the first game. But still feel this is going to be another major defensive game. Neither team had many fast break scoring chances in the opener, as both squad played terrific defense. The goalies were also outstanding as we have two of the league’s elite in this series. With LA shutting down the Vegas speed we look for another tight defensive effort.

PLAY UNDER

13 Columbus at Washington

We like the Blue Jackets to win this series as an underdog, therefore of course we like them here at plus money in the opener. The goalie edge in this one for us goes to Bobrovsky, and we can’t trust the Captals. Washington continues to underperform expectations and the noose is getting tighter on this team. Columbus will play free an easy while all the pressure will be on the host.

PLAY COLUMBUS