Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +3.5 v. Arkansas State | 52-59 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Arkansas State 7:30: Georgia State blew out Arkansas State last year 52-38 and I'm taking the points again. The Red Wolves still have defensive breakdowns against the run and pass. Georgia State can run the rock (470 yards over 2 games) and versatile QB Cornelious Brown is capable of upping his completion percentage tonight. Sure, Arkansas State has a prolific passer in Logan Bonner; however, like how the Panthers got after another prolific passer - Holton Ahlers. Georgia State has been well rested (off since October 3rd). The Panthers are 6-1 ATS off SU win of 14+ points. Arkansas State wants revenge but 0-5 w/ revenge vs opponent off SU dog win. Georgia State the call. |
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10-13-20 | Bills -3 v. Titans | 16-42 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Bills/Titans 7:00: Under normal circumstances (without Covid 19), a case can surely be built for Tennessee to avenge their loss from a year ago on this field; however, Titans have been out of action since the 27th and have had very little on field practice time while missing lots of players. Some of Tannehill's key weapons ( Humphries) are out and he'll have to go with the next man up - Westbrook-Ikhine, Kalif Raymond- who rarely see the field; therefore, chemistry is a concern in the passing game. Sure, there is Derrick Henry; however, offensive line underachieving this year as Henry is being hit after 1.3 yards gained; moreover, Tannehill has taken way too many pressures and hits although he has been fortunate to avoid sacks. Bills' defense not what it was the last few years but must consider the offense is now explosive (#3 in NFL). Bills are relatively healthy and rolling. Devin Singletary is a highly underrated back that allows Josh Allen to do his thing. Diggs, Beasley, Brown (questionable) are in great rhythm with Allen. Titans' underachieving defense allowing 30 points in back to back weeks not a good sign considering limited practice time to make adjustments. We'll look for Buffalo to keep it rolling. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +7 v. Saints | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Chargers/Saints 8:15: Chargers do their best work on the road under Anthony Lynn where they're now 17-8 ATS. Chargers need to cut down on mistakes such as fumbles and interceptions at inopportune times. RB Joshua Kelley and QB Herbert need to polish their game and I believe they'll do well here. New Orleans defense giving up about 31 points per game. Saints' secondary still not fully healthy and Herbert has the arm and the weaponry (WR Allen) to work it. Saints have the worst Red Zone defense in the NFL at 82.4% conversion. On the other hand, Drew Brees' favorite target Michael Thomas still out. Chargers have a solid secondary and a great pass rush when Bosa (questionable) is healthy. Saints 4-10 ATS as home chalk and 2-6 ATS on MNF. Chargers keep it tight. |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Seahawks | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Vikings/Seattle 8:20: I realize Carroll is a big Prime Time TV winner and the Seahawks are 4-0 SU/ATS; however, overdue for a loss here. Carroll's uncharacteristic poor defensive numbers (last in the NFL in total yards) is a backdoor cover dream here. Vikings' QB Cousins has a plethora of weaponry to go to, including versatile RB Cook, to thrash the thin secondary of Seattle. Seattle won't have S Adams nor C Quinton Dunbar to help stave off yardage. Carroll is relying on guys like S Damarious Randall who was just called up from the practice squad. Seattle is also having a hard time generating sacks. Minnesota overdue to get revenge on a Seattle team that's whipped them repeatedly. Zimmer a dangerous 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog. Minnesota the call. |
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10-11-20 | Colts +1 v. Browns | 23-32 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Colts/Browns 4:25: Both teams have injury concerns but believe the Colts' systems in a better state to manage them. Colts won't have All-Pro LB Leonard but do have pretty good depth at that position. Colts' DC Eberflus has the #1 defense in the NFL and subs are well managed to take over. I like they lead the NFL in interceptions and the ball hawking secondary will be challenged with the Browns' wealth of skill talent. Colts play the run well and will have to be on their game vs the #1 run attack in the NFL; however, Chubb's (out) absence will hurt a bit leaving Hunt as the go-to-guy with untested rookie D'Ernest Johnson as his backup. On the defensive side of the ball is a shaky part for Cleveland. They do have All-Pro caliber DE Myles Garrett to wreak havoc especially since LT Castonzo is out. But Indy HC Reich will work it out for veteran signal caller Phillip Rivers. He's got some surrounding talent and should be able to torch a weak Cleveland secondary under DC Joe Woods. Reich is 6-1 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater team. And he's 10-2 ATGS vs .500 or greater team off a non-division opponent. Colts the call. |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | 14-30 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Hard to lay points with a pathetic Houston team. O'Brien dismissed but surely veteran coaching retread Romeo Crennel no upgrade. Texans run game last in the NFL so pressure on Watson to make plays. Jaguars not good defensively with a number of banged up guys, including corner D.J. Hayden. And they're struggling to generate a pass rush. Josh Allen's absence won't help if he can't go. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Jacksonville's QB Minshew II can sling it and the Texans' defense has been pathetic under new DC Weaver. Jacksonville 13-2 ATS as a dog off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss of 8 or less. Throw in double revenge motive from last season's sweep and we'll take the points with Jacksonville. |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans OVER 54 | 14-30 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Both of these defenses can't stop anybody. Jacksonville has given up 33, 31, 33 over their last 3 games. Houston has given up 31, 28, 33. And that's not counting September 10th when KC could have easily hung 50+ on them. Instead, ran out a lot of clock late with 34. The arms of Minshew II and Watson should go to work. This series is overdue for a high scoring game and it should come today. "Over" the call. |
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10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Bengals highly competitive this season thanks to Joe Burrow. He's the real deal. Burrow is distributing the ball well to his weapons including Higgins and Boyd, who are quickly becoming go to guys. And A.J. Green has yet to be unleashed. Lots of air yardage today vs a Baltimore pass defense that has weakened substantially. And RB Joe Mixon (shin) should be good to go to add to more yardage on the ground and through the air. Ravens' offense not at the level it was a year ago. Ravens 24th in total yardage as defenses figuring out Lamar and company. Moreover, All Pro Geno Atkins back to wreak havoc between tackles. Ravens 0-8 ATS as division home favorites of more than 8 points. And they're 0-3 ATS at home vs the Bengals. Double revenge motive for Cincy and we'll look for them to stay competitive. |
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10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
Marshall/Western Kentucky 7:30: So far, Marshall looks like a national champion caliber team with two easy wins including 17-7 win over Appalachian State! But a closer look reveals the Mountaineers are adjusting to first year HC Shawn Clark, and Marshall hasn't played since that win - September 19th. On the other side, Western Kentucky has underachieved at 1-2 with their lone win barely getting by a poor MTU squad. But I like the Hilltoppers here; after all, Tyson Helton has some good experience back including versatile QB Pigrome who's tossed 6 TDs with 0 INTs. Helton's team is well disciplined and will be competitive here; after all, over the last 3 games in this series, the winner was decided by one score or less. WKY is looking to avenge last year's close loss and should deliver. Marshall 0-6 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins. |
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10-10-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -20 | 26-42 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-10-20 | Tennessee +13 v. Georgia | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Georgia 3:30: Georgia looked impressive last week but we won't count the Volunteers out yet. Pruitt turned around the Vol's after that 43-14 loss at home to the Bulldogs last year. Vol's have gone on an 9-1 SU run since. Keep in mind that although Georgia's HC Smart grabbed the #1 recruiting class this season, Pruitt has a Top 10 class himself including raiding a number of Georgia recruits including nabbing starting tackle Cade Mays. Tennessee's QB Guarantano playing well and should keep this one tight. Vol's 6-1 ATS on the road vs greater than .500 opponent off an ATS win. Tennessee the call. |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia -7 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
NC State/Virginia Noon: A lot of action on NC State after upsetting Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile, Virginia coming off a loss to #1 Clemson; however, did manage to put outrush and outgain the Tigers in yards; consequently, they covered. We'll look for Virginia to bounce back here. Lots of the Cavaliers still have a sour taste in their mouths losing the 2018 battle to NC State 35-21. The Cavaliers have a solid run stop unit (96.5 YPG) and their defense had a good glance at QB Devin Leary who won the starting job and engineered a great final drive last week. But looking for a letdown here. The Wolfpack have been notorious for underachieving following wins at 1-10 ATS; moreover, 0-5 ATS off a SU dog win vs a team above .333 winning percentage. Virginia is tough to beat at home, getting good play out of QB Brennan Armstrong, and eager to get back in the win column. With NC State 0-6 ATS on the road vs winning teams, Virginia the call. |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Heat/Lakers 9:00: Heat has played the dog role well throughout the playoffs (9-4 ATS) and I'm staying on them here. Butler, Herro, Adebayo, Crowder, Robinson have a burning desire to compete and have proven to play with the best of them. Just need Nunn to step up his game a bit more for the shoes of Dragic are big to fill. Heat operate on 2 days rest well at 7-3 ATS. We're going to look for Miami to take this to the wire. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Louisville/Georgia Tech 7:00: Both of these teams are well coached; as a matter of fact, Tech's Collins and Card's Satterfield actually coached together years ago. Card's Satterfield has a team more deeply rooted in his system than Collins, who had to take over for Paul Johnson's Flex Bone predominant run oriented offense. Consequently, Cardinals a bit ahead of the curve. Louisville has taken on two tough foes following an easy win over WKY. Miami U and Pittsburgh no lightweights this year. Georgia Tech took out a suspect Florida State team and lost back to back games vs respectable UCF and struggling Syracuse. With both teams coming off a bye, look for Louisville to deliver behind dynamic QB Malik Cunningham who is good to go after scary incident vs Pitt. Satterfield loves to run the rock and Hawkins is the man. Engineers' defense has not been good and could be in for a long night. And the jury is still out on G Tech's QB Sims who has just 3 TD/8 INTs. Cards 3-0-1 ATS off a loss, 4-0 ATS on the road. GT not a good history of a home dog at 1-7 ATS. Cardinals the call. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Bears | 19-20 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay/Chicago 8:20: Concerned with the TB secondary which was torched last week by QB Herbert and the Chargers. We'll look for TB DC Bowles to address that this week; after all, Foles can air it out. Allen Robinson is a big time receiver; however, Bears' normally strong run game sputtered last week against a good Indy defense and TB's run stop unit allows only 64 YPG (#2 in NFL). Offensively, Brady has gotten in rhythm over the last 3 weeks and that's trouble for opposing defenses. Sure, Bears have a very good red zone defense (#1 NFL) but TB has an explosive vertical game developing. With TE Howard (Achilles) and Godwin out, Gronk should get added time. Brady does have a thinning receiving corps with Miller and Evans on the mend; however, no one, with the exception of Aaron Rodgers, gets more out of young receivers in developmental stage than Brady. Technically, Bears 4-14 ATS vs non division foes when allowing 14+ points under Nagy. And Bears have not been a solid Thursday Night play at 4-11 ATS. TB the call. |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat OVER 218 | 102-96 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Lakers/Heat 9:00: Heat should have Adebayo back on the floor today. He gives the Heat energy on both ends of the floor. He's a pretty strong finisher on the glass. Lakers were a bit sluggish in Game 3 and should deliver sustainable energy for the duration here. Lakers are 9-3 O/U off a SU loss. Heat 9-4 O/U off a win of 10+ and 5-2 O/U as a dog. This playoff series has a range of 214 to 238. Based on the trends, we'll look for this one to be on the higher side of the range tonight. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers -6.5 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Falcons/Packers 8:50: Trying to build a case to take the points with a desperate Falcons team but can't. Falcons have collapsed late in 2 of their 3 losses and tonight go into Lambeau Field with 5 key defensive players banged up. That's not a good sign against the leading scoring team in the NFL. GB QB Rodgers is off to a sizzling start and he has historically torched Atlanta to the tune of 2165 yards passing with 17 TDs/2 INTs. Packers do, however, have some injury concerns. Leading receiver Lazard (core) is out but star Davonte Adams (hamstring) should be back; after all, he practiced all week. Defensively, DT Kenny Clark (groin) could bolster the front too if cleared. Nevertheless, Packers should have enough depth to hold off the explosive offense of Atlanta with Ridley and Jones probable but nursing injuries. Technically, Falcons have a poor history in October at 2-11 ATS. They're 7-23 ATS after allowing 250+ passing yards. And they're 0-6 ATS on MNF off back to back losses. Quinn is 1-8 ATS as a dog off SU favorite loss. Packers the call. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
Falcons/Packers 8:50: Falcons' defense, last in the league in scoring, has given up 38, 40, 30 points for the first 3 weeks, respectively. And tonight, the Falcons' defense has 5 significant players banged up; consequently, red hot QB Rodgers and the #1 scoring offense should light up the secondary. Having All-Pro Davonte Adams (questionable) back in the fray should help tremendously to offset loss of Lazard (out). And RB Aaron Jones a big part of the GB machine. As for Atlanta, Julio Jones (hamstring) should play. Matt Ryan does manage, like Rodgers, to connect with the next man up. Ryan does have Gurley, Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, and Ridley (ankle) should be good to go too. GB defense has given up its share of points this season (34, 21, 30) and like Atlanta, 3-0 O/U on the season. Heavy "over" trends for each and there still is value with the "over". |
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10-04-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Bears | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Colts/Bears 4:25: Bears finding ways to win games. Nick Foles secured the starting nod by rallying them late last week. However, he won't have RB Cohen (I-R w/ knee) as a big check-down receiver. Foles will face the #1 defense in the NFL. Colts have faced somewhat of a light schedule like Chicago but do look in rhythm on both sides of the ball. And veteran QB Rivers can still sling it, especially if given the time. With edge rusher Mack (knee) hobbling, Rivers should continue his hot run. And keep in mind that Colts' HC Reich was QB coach for Foles in Philadelphia. He knows his tendencies. Reich is 6-1 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater team. Colts the call. |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +7 | 31-23 | Loss | -120 | 84 h 53 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Dolphins 1:00: Been riding the Seahawks for a while but going to throw a rare fade on them here. Seahawks banged up defensively while calling up practice squad players for a decimated group including #1 draft choice LB Brooks (knee) who was starting to see more action. And the Seahawks' defense is dead last in yards allowed. Offensively, RB Carson (knee) is out putting pressure on Russell Wilson to cook even more than he already has. That may be a bit too much to ask. Dolphins are banged up a bit too but did have a few days extra rest coming off a big Thursday night win. And Fitzpatrick can still light it up. Seahawks just 2-9 ATS off back-to-back wins vs less than .500 non division foe. A bit much to ask for the banged up Seahawks to travel cross country for an early start. Dolphins 7-3 ATS at home against winning road teams. Dolphins the call. |
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10-04-20 | Vikings +3.5 v. Texans | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Vikings/Texans 1:00: Can't trust Houston laying points. Both teams have taken on a pretty tough schedule but I believe Vikings are in a better position to come out of their 0-3 hole. Texans having trouble running the football (31st in the NFL) and can't stop the run defensively (last in the NFL allowing 188.3 YPG). QB Watson forced to go to the air repeatedly and constantly under duress because of missed assignments blocking and no deep threat (Hopkins off to Arizona); as a matter of fact, Watson's longest pass completion this season is 38 yards. Zimmer is a good coach and should have his secondary improve from allowing explosive plays against a non-explosive team. Vikings, on the other hand, have weapons Thielen, Delvin Cook and emerging star rookie Jefferson. Not fond of Houston's DC Weaver who is not getting it done. Vikings 19-4-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss under Zimmer; moreover, 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog, and 5-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Thrown in they're 4-0 ATS in last 4 vs Houston and we'll jump on Minnesota at this price. |
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10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Baltimore/Washington 1:00: The Ravens have done well against most teams not named KC. Ravens laid a big egg on both sides of the ball Monday. We'll look for them to bounce back strong. Washington 3-7 ATS as a home dog. Washington won't have DE Chase Young (groin) to help chase down Lamar Jackson. Baltimore the call. |
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10-03-20 | Auburn +7.5 v. Georgia | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Auburn/Georgia 7:30: Glad to take the points here with Malzahn. He's looking to avenge last year's 21-14 loss and carries a pretty good revenge record vs conference opponents. Sure Georgia has the top recruiting class in the nation but still unsettled at QB with a glut of talent (Bennett, Mathis, Daniels) but no apparent stand out. And I'm not thrilled with their run game (2.9 YPC) vs Arkansas? Like the Tigers' QB Nix who's blossoming into a solid SEC signal caller. He's got a solid supporting cast and a good defense. After three straight losses to the Bulldogs, Malzahn should be able to deliver one here. |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas A&M/Alabama 3:30: Both teams were perhaps looking ahead to this one. Last week, Alabama shot out to a 35-3 lead before allowing a backdoor cover to Missouri; Texas A&M was in a scrum with Vandy before winning 17-12. Vandy defense the real deal though. And A&M underrated QB Kellen Mond is no joke. Remember, Jimbo Fisher pulled together a Top 10 recruiting class with surrounding talent for Mond. And defensively, the Aggies are deep enough to hang with the big boys of the SEC. Too many points to give to a very good Jimbo Fisher team. |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Baylor/West Virginia 12:00: Baylor and their new coaching staff are excited along with fans on the blowout of KU. But I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into that win considering the Jayhawks lost to lightweight Coastal Carolina the previous week. WV battled a very good Oklahoma State team despite the loss of their starting QB. WV's HC Neal Brown will have his men clean up their game this week. Sloppy play, penalties cost them. That's uncharacteristic of a Neal Brown coached team. We'll look for his offensive line to improve dramatically this week. The Mounties are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss (covered +17') at Baylor. Brown likes to run the rock and has a pretty good pair of backs and a decent QB in Doege. Brown is 6-0 as a home dog and we'll look for him to school Baylor's new HC Aranda. |
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10-03-20 | South Carolina +17 v. Florida | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Florida 12:00: USC hung in there last week vs Tennessee. QB Hill (transfer from Colorado State) is well groomed by his mentor and former HC of Colorado State - OC Bobo. Tennessee's defense is well disciplined under HC Pruitt yet Collin Hill dropped nearly 300 on them. Florida defense gave up explosive plays to Ole Miss last week and this has the makings of a closer than what odds makers think. Last year, the Gamecocks actually outgained the Gators in a 27-38 loss. Gamecocks 8-2-1 ATS as a road dog and we'll grab the generous amount of points. |
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10-02-20 | Heat +10 v. Lakers | 114-124 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU OVER 59.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech/BYU 9:00 pm: We should see tons of points. Both offenses are highly productive with good run games and vertical passing games. BYU's defense more sound but haven't been exposed to this well seasoned Skip Holtz offense. QB Luke Anthony can sling the ball. On the other hand, the young Bulldogs' defense should be exposed against a formidable BYU offense with a big line, good skill players - Milne and Romney- and a seasoned quarterback in Zach Wilson. "Over" the call. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 37-28 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Broncos/Jets 8:20: Both of these teams' offenses are ranked in the bottom of the NFL. Jets' QB Darnell does get back hit favorite target Crowder (hamstring) but his underachieving offensive line isn't giving him much help. Run game, like Denver's, is near the bottom of the league. Broncos' defense has many injuries along the front but picking up veteran DT Timmy Jernigan will help. On the other hand, Jets' underachieving defense should awaken under veteran DC Gregg Williams. Broncos are starting Boise State alum free agent Brett Rypien in place of ineffective Driskell. Broncos, despite their injuries, are well disciplined under head coach Fangio, who was one of the best DCs in the game. Broncos and Jets are averaging a paltry 15 and 12.3 PPG, respectively. Heavy "Under" trends of a combined 7-23-1 O/U after they allow 350+ yards. We'll look for defensive pride to take fold tonight. |
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09-30-20 | Heat +4.5 v. Lakers | 98-116 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
09-29-20 | Yankees v. Indians -100 | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | 34-20 | Loss | -130 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Ravens 8:15: Two heavyweights in the AFC but right now, Ravens more in rhythm, especially on the defensive end. Ravens' DC Martindale getting good work out of rookie linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison to add to an already deep bunch. Calais Campbell headlines a strong defensive line, and Ravens' corners Humphrey and Peters give Martindale flexibility on blitzes. Sure, Mahomes is great, and his skill supporting cast is second to none, especially with rookie Edwards-Helaire added to the mix. However, Chargers did a decent job holding the Chiefs in check last week and Baltimore has a deeper and even more skilled cast of players. Where KC is weak is defensively. They had some issues last season in the first half of the season and DC Spagnuolo has to shuffle his secondary around because of injuries; moreover, DE Okafor is out. KC is 28th in the NFL in yards allowed. That's over 100 more than the Ravens' defense gives up per game. Chargers ran all over them and Baltimore's run game (170 YPG) is rolling with QB Jackson, Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins. They open up the play action/RPO game really well. Ravens 6-2 ATS on MNF and although Harbaugh not a great home favorite, he's 9-2 ATS as a home favorite vs a .500 or greater non division opponent off a division game. Ravens hungry to avenge the last two losses to KC and look for them to get the best of KC tonight. |
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09-27-20 | Packers +3.5 v. Saints | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Packers/Saints 8:20: Saints not a great home favorite at 4-9 ATS. And no crowd in the Superdome further limits New Orleans' advantage. Give Aaron Rodgers the ability to verbally audible and he'll continue to pick apart defenses. I do realize that Davonte Adams (hamstring) is on the mend and will be a game time decision; however, Rodgers is slinging it around to a variety of weapons and RB Aaron Jones has picked up the slack before in Adams' absence. He can do it again. Defensively, Saints looked sluggish against the run Monday, and face another solid offensive line that's actually healthy. Defensively, DT Kenny Clark will get some reps which add to the defensive line depth for GB. They'll give QB Brees trouble. Brees misses his top WR Thomas badly as evidenced Monday. Saints still haven't gotten value out of the TE Trautman whom they traded up for. He caught 1 pass for 15 yards. Packers 7-0 ATS off SU division home win. Lafleur is 5-1 ATS off a division game vs opponent off non-division game. Packers the call. |
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09-27-20 | Lions v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Lions 0-2, injury riddled yet should have WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring) back for QB Stafford. That gives the Cardinals a bit less of a spread to cover for the line moved down a few points on the announcement. Cardinals' addition of Hopkins (219 receiving yards) has created a matchup nightmare for teams and it will get more difficult for the struggling Lions' defense. Kyler Murray is finding his groove and he is nearly unstoppable when the Cardinals are moving the ball. Expect more offensive fireworks today. Defensively, Arizona getting better every week with lots of young talent blending in with seasoned playmakers Patterson and Baker. LB De'Vondre Campbell (free agent rookie) has already paid dividends and top pick Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) can only get better. Cardinals 7-1 ATS in this series. Cardinals the call. |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6.5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Raiders/Patriots 1:00: Raiders coming off a huge MNF win but don't like what I see from the Raiders history off wins. They're 1-15 ATS on the road off back-to-back SU wins. They went nearly the entire week with multiple bodies not practicing including key cog RB Josh Jacobs & TE Waller. Their offensive line is banged up and defensively, they still only have one sack registered. NE hungry to get back in win column after narrow defeat last week to Seattle. NE is 12-2 ATS following a SU in September. Newton is back to his old MVP self and getting pretty good support. Time for Belichick's defense to wake up. We should see it here. Patriots the call. |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Texans/Steelers 1:00: Pittsburgh coming off two struggling opponents face a Texans' team which played two of the best in AFC. Houston needs to shore up its offensive line for Watson has been sacked 8X already. NFL offensive linemen take pride in what they do and should show up today in a pissed off mood vs the aggressive Steelers' front. Houston defense has at times shown some grit but needs consistent aggressive play. Roethlisberger is gradually getting into a groove and surely the Texans don't want him comfortable in the pocket. Texans should snap out of their funk here. They're 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Pittsburgh not the greatest home favorite at 2-6 ATS; moreover, just 2-11 ATS as a conference favorite of less than 6 points. And keep in mind that teams which are 0-2 SU to start the season deliver at a 67% clip in Game 3. On the flip side, 2-0 SU teams deliver at just a 45% clip. We'll grab the points here with Houston. |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers | 107-117 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
09-26-20 | Tennessee -3 v. South Carolina | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
Tennessee/S. Carolina 7:30: Tennessee started miserably last year at 1-4 SU before turning things around winning 7 of their last 8 games. Pruitt comes back with a loaded roster coupled with a Top 10 recruiting class! S. Carolina, on the other hand, cleaned house getting rid of most offensive coaches on the staff. It's going to take time to build the chemistry; in the meantime, we'll look for Tennessee to roll in their opener. |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Oklahoma State | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Oklahoma State 3:30: Oklahoma State had trouble moving the football last week vs Tulsa when QB Spencer Sanders (ankle) went down early. He has not been cleared to play. I like WV's HC Neal Brown who did wonders while at Troy. The Mountaineers got off to a good start crushing lightweight Eastern Kentucky last week. QB Jarret Doege, who transferred from Bowling Green, looked good in his debut and he's got a pretty good surrounding cast that accumulated 624 yards. It won't be easy this week but I like where the Mounties are headed. WV the call. |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa State/TCU 1:30: Disappointing season opener and uncharacteristic of Matt Campbell's team. We'll look for a more polished Cyclones' unit today; after all, Purdy tore up TCU 49-24 last year. And he still has a the nucleus of that skill personnel to work with. We'll look for a more polished offensive line this week. On the other hand, TCU is used to having a lightweight as a season opening game and it won't be easy. QB is not a strong point on TCU with Downing (4 games started last year) and Duggan who completed just 53.4% of his pass with a 15/10 TD/INT ratio. Iowa State 4-0 ATS TCU and 15-6 ATS off a SU loss. Iowa State the call. |
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09-26-20 | Florida -13 v. Ole Miss | 51-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida/Ole Miss Noon: Not going to be an easy transition for Lane Kiffin. Weakened recruiting classes by former coach Matt Luke put them back a few years. Kiffin does have some solid recruits he brought over. And Ole Miss did go 6-2 ATS down the stretch last season. However, Kiffin didn't have enough time to work with his core group during off season and face Dan Mullen's group that's entering their third season and strong back-to-back recruiting classes (Top 10). Mullen likes to run the ball and that should show improvement this year with a strong line and good skill weaponry around QB Trask. Florida the call. |
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09-25-20 | Heat +3.5 v. Celtics | 108-121 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Heat on an 11-2 run and playing off the chart team basketball. Virtually every player that hits the floor for Miami has turned in a significant contribution. Tyler Herro soared to new heights dropping 37 on Boston Wednesday. Butler, Dragic, Adebayo, Crowder just playing off the chart basketball in the playoffs. And those guys are getting spelled relief by a fabulous energy driven bench. Boston, however, has turnover problems and uncertainty in shot selection at critical times of the game which are costly. Heat Spoelstra does an amazing job preparing Miami and we'll look for the Heat to deliver tonight. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -128 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Jaguars 8:20: Jaguars a bit further along in their progress this season. They had a good draft and even picked up a steal with free agent RB James Robinson from Illinois State. He ran well against Indy and grinded out 102 rush yards vs a pretty good Titans' defense last week. He surely helps out budding star QB Minshew. Minshew can sling it and he's got an exciting rookie WR Laviska Shenault Jr. to tear up an injury riddled Miami secondary. And with Shaq Lawson (hip) questionable, a bit more time in the pocket for quick release Minshew is always a good thing. Miami defense 30th in total yards and that doesn't bode well for the productive offense of Jacksonville. On the other hand, Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick is no slouch. He's dangerous when given time and in sync reunited with his old OC Chan Gailey. Jacksonville has an aggressive defense and I like edge rusher Josh Allen who can wreak havoc. Not crazy about Jacksonville as a home favorite (1-4 ATS) but I do like their September record of 5-0 ATS. With Miami at 0-4 ATS on Thursday nights, they're not quite ready for prime time yet and we'll tread lightly with Jacksonville. |
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09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:30: As I mentioned for Saturday, Celtics would get a good boost from Hayward and it helped for the win and cover to get them back in the series. But the final score wasn't indicative of the competitiveness in that game. Celtics capitalized on a few Miami miscues down the stretch to blow it open. We'll look for Spoelstra, who's been doing an amazing job, to make the necessary adjustments for the Heat. Every Heat player is making a significant contribution and you don't see that often on any team. Heat on a 10-2 ATS run, 11-4 ATS off a SU loss of 10+, and yes, they play well on extended rest at 40-18 ATS on 3+ days rest. Heat deliver. |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show | |
Lakers/Nuggets 9:00: Hard to put away the Nuggets as the Jazz and Clippers found out. 2-0 deficit for Denver becoming routine and they're not going away. Held their own in Game 2 for the cover. Tonight, they'll need to crash the defensive boards harder. Denver 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, 7-1 ATS after allowing 100+, and 4-0 ATS on 1 day rest. Denver the call. |
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09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | 24-34 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
Saints/Raiders 8:15: With a healthy Michael Thomas, Saints would be a TD and a hook favorite. Without Thomas (out), value still with the Saints. Huge disparity between defenses. Raiders' under DC Guenther have generated virtually no QB pressure including last week (1 sack 4 QB pressures) vs a middle of the pack offense. QB Brees does have some quality options including Emmanuel Sanders and Kamara and Brees has a pretty healthy offensive line. On the other hand, Raiders' are down to their third string RT after Trent Brown (calf) and his backup Sam Young (groin) went down last week. The Raiders can get away with it vs Carolina, but unlikely New Orleans with Cameron Jordan and company. Carr should get hit routinely. And remember, Saints' run stop unit has not allowed a 100+ rusher in 44 straight games. Saints 4-0 ATS as a road favorite and covered 5 of their last 7 in September. And let's not forget that the Raiders are a pathetic 1-7 ATS at home all time vs the NFC South. No crowd noise gives road team a slight edge here and we'll ride the Saints. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show | |
Patriots/Seahawks 8:20: Disappointed in Seattle's secondary which gave up 434 yards; however, Pete Carroll is a great defensive mind and should straighten things out this week; after all, he's got a great addition to it with Jamal Adams (acquired from Jets) who was stellar last week in multiple coverages and blitzes. Patriots' Cam Newton doesn't have the weaponry Atlanta does. Edelman (knee) and Harry (shoulder) had limited practice this week. Look for the Seahawks to hunker down in assignment football to stop Cam and the read option, which was so effective last week vs Miami. Newton just 2-4 SU vs Seattle. New England's offensive line leaves much to be desired too. Patriots just 1-6 ATS off SU/ATS win vs opponent off double digit SU win. Seattle the call. |
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09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 41 h 38 m | Show | |
Ravens/Texans 4:25: Texans having a rough start to the season and it won't get easier today. Houston's defense got worked against he explosive Chiefs' offense that could have hung 50 on them. Baltimore's potent offense should befuddle new DC Weaver. With the addition of J.K. Dobbins (draft) in the mix, Ravens should be unstoppable. Defensively, Ravens gave up yardage last week to a potent run game of the Browns and took away the pass; moreover, limited the end zone scoring (6 points). Ravens thumped the Texans 41-7 last year. Ravens have been getting out of the gate fast the last couple of years and 4-0 ATS as a road favorite. Ravens the call. |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs -8 v. Chargers | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Chargers 4:25: Chiefs now 11-1 ATS in September and should deliver again. Chiefs banged up defensively missing DT Saunders, DE Okafor, CB Ward and CB Breeland (suspended); however, playmakers DE Chris Jones, DE Frank Clark, run stopper Nnadi and secondary SS "Honey Badger" Mathieu have enough quality personnel run by Spagnuolo to handle a lethargic Chargers' offense. I don't see Tyrod Taylor and company able to trade points with the explosive KC offense. Big time KC QB Mahomes has a wealth of offensive weaponry with TE Kelce, Watkins, Tyreek Hill and, a new explosive versatile RB in Edwards-Helaire who makes life difficult for linebackers on swing and circle routes. Chiefs have owned Chargers in LA at 7-0 ATS and should louse up the Chargers home opener in their new stadium. Lynn just 1-5-1 ATS off a SU win. |
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09-20-20 | Rams +2 v. Eagles | Top | 37-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Rams/Eagles 1:00: Eagles have owned this series but that should change today. Rams looked like the 2018 version last Sunday at home vs Dallas. Their offensive line is back to moving defensive linemen downhill while downhill RB Brown is gobbling up grass and yardage. Speedy draft pick Cam Akers is a good changeup. And when the Rams run game is going, QB Goff is at his best. We'll look for more of the same today. Eagles' banged up on both sides of the line. Brooks and Dillard are on the IR while Lane Johnson (ankle) should return. And T Jason Peters still shaking off the rust after missing 10 preseason days (contract); consequently, Aaron Donald will be breathing down Carson Wentz neck most of the day. On the other side of the ball, Eagles' defensive line has a rash of injuries stemming from last week's loss vs Washington. McVay 9-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off an away game. Rams and the points the call. |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Boston/Miami 8:30: Had Miami for first two games but will go with Boston here; after all, like Miami, they're a well coached team that should be able to close it out tonight. Hayward (questionable), who's been practicing with team, should add a spark with some solid minutes. Celtics are 6-1 ATS off an ATS loss and overdue for a win. |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2 | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
Miami Florida/Louisville 7:30: Revenge game for Louisville and the Cardinals should deliver. Last year, Miami U created some special teams plays that spurred a 52-27 route. This season, with Louisville HC Satterfield in his second year and able to upgrade personnel to add to an already solid nucleus on both sides of the ball. Offensively, QB Micale Cunningham is a big time player with a great supporting cast. The Cardinals should work a depleted Hurricanes' secondary with only 5 scholarship players left. Defensively, Cardinals showed improvement from a year ago as they held a pretty good Western Kentucky team to a total of just 248 yards. Sure, Miami has Houston transfer D'Eriq King running the show with a new OC and Miami won't be the bungling offense of last year. We'll look for Satterfield's bunch to be up for the challenge and deliver. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
Bengals/Browns 8:20: Bengals were competitive vs Los Angeles last week. Burrow was sharp on the Bengals' final drive going 8 of 11 including clocking the the final throw to put his team in position to tie game. Bengals' K Bulloch (calf) is OK but the Bengals grabbed K Seibert off the waiver wire as a back up after Browns released him Monday. Bengals do have some problems defensively with their line not healthy and Browns should move the ball on them; however, Browns got beat up vs physical Ravens' and won't be at their most physical tonight. Bengals' have a good offensive skill set and should be able to pick apart a beat up secondary. We'll look for Cincinnati to hang around here. Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last 6 at Cleveland. Bengals the call. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
Bengals/Browns 8:20: Browns should be able to move the football against a Bengals' defense that's thin on the defensive front; after all, Cincinnati won't have ultra dominant DT Geno Atkins roaming the Browns' backfield; moreover, his backup - Mike Daniels is out too. Mayfield has a plethora of weapons to go to including a strong run game with Chubb and Hunt. Bengals were run on vs the LAC on Sunday. We'll look for the play action game to open up as well. As for the Bengals, Joe Burrow showed on Sunday that he belongs in the NFL. And the Browns' depleted secondary (no Greedy Williams or Kevin Johnson) can be worked. Burrow has good skill weaponry with A.J. Green, Ross, Boyd and even explosive rookie Tee Higgins should get a chance to make plays. Browns' secondary not as good as the Chargers. And look for RB Mixon to be the workhorse to free up the pass game. Bengals will need to slow the charges of Browns' edge rushers Garrett and Vernon. This series went 4-0-1 O/U last 4 matchups. And the Browns are 4-0 O/U in their last 4 after scoring less than 15 points. "Over" it is. |
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09-15-20 | Heat +2 v. Celtics | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
Miami/Boston 6:40: Good matchup with two well coached teams but like Miami in Game 1. Butler, averaging 20+ PPG in playoffs is a difficult matchup for most teams and that can be applied here. He's got a great supporting cast as Dragic (20+ PPG in playoffs) got hot when Spoelstra inserted him as a starter. And Adebayo has emerged as a double/double threat. Boston did get the best of the season series 2-1 but Miami won the last game August 4th in the bubble. Miami improved dramatically when the season resumed. Heat 39-18 ATS on 3+ days rest. We'll take the Heat. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Steelers/Giants 7:15: Not sold on the Giants after coming off a 4 win season. They cleaned house and added Belichick disciple Joe Judge. Other than Vrabel at Tennessee, and mediocre Bill O'Brien, former Belichick guys have not fared well as head coaches - Crennel, Josh McDaniels, Patricia and Flores are all struggling. And talking about mediocrity, former head coach Jason Garrett will be the offensive coordinator- surely not keeping DCs' up at night. Giants did have a pretty good draft and will put to test #1 pick LT Andrew Thomas. And RB Barkley is one of the three top backs in the NFL despite playing behind a poor offensive line. QB Daniel Jones was sacked 38 X and registered 18 fumbles last year. He's got a few weapons in Shephard and Slayton with Tate likely out with hamstring. We'll look for the hungry Steeler defense to neutralize the Giants' offense. Steelers' defense pretty healthy and added more depth with LB Blake Martinez (from GB) and Corner Logan Ryan (from Tennessee). S Minkah Fitzpatrick was the missing piece that elevated the Steelers' defense last year. We'll look for the Steelers' defense to deliver tonight. And offensively, QB Roethlisberger is back and TE Eric Ebron was a big pick up in the off season to add to a pretty good receiving corps. And RB McFarland was a good draft out of Maryland. He's added to a deep backfield behind a physical Steelers' O line. They'll need to win the battle vs the strength of the Giants' defense - defensive line. We'll bet on the Steelers which are 5-2 ATS on MNF. |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Cardinals/49ers 4:25: Arizona gave San Francisco a tough time last year in this division series. Kyler Murray completed 72% with a 4 TD and 0 INT. With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to an already good receiving corps, SF's secondary will have its work cut out for them; moreover, Arizona bolstered their line with draft pick Josh Jones who should immediately help. And defensively, Cardinals got immediate help in the secondary for CB Patterson with Dre Kirkpatrick. And I'm sure DC Vance Joseph is loving versatile LB Isaiah Simmons acquired in the draft. He can cover lots of field and play the run. Defense should be an upgrade for Arizona. SF will still be a force in the NFC West; however, Super Bowl losers just 6-15 ATS in Game 1. We'll put our money on Kingsbury who is 15-7-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more in college and pro; moreover, 6-0 ATS w/ revenge in the NFL. |
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09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay/New Orleans 4:25: New Orleans should continue to be successful this season but don't like them in Game 1. Saints are 1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS in season openers under Payton. And TB is loaded on both sides of the ball including future Hall of Famers QB Brady and TE Gronk. Moreover, the offensive line was bolstered in the off season and the recent addition of RB Fournette gives TB a ridiculous load of skill talent. Defensively, TB is in good shape as well with a strong defensive front, good linebacker corps and expected improved secondary. Arians a seasoned veteran coach can win on the road now that he's got his QB. |
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09-13-20 | Seahawks -129 v. Falcons | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Falcons 1:00: Seahawks needed to fill void left with Clowney and they did by bringing back LB Bruce Irvin and DE Mayowa. Moreover, Pete Carroll bolstered his secondary with S Jamal Adams and C Dunbar to add to Diggs and Griffin. And top draft pick Jordyn Brooks should pay immediate dividends as a run stopper and can cover ground in the secondary. Atlanta, meanwhile, didn't really address the glaring weakness on their offensive line which failed to protect Matt Ryan last year. On the other hand, Falcons' secondary is left thin with injuries and suspensions; consequently, bad news with one of the best QBs in the NFL Russell Wilson leading the show with a seasoned supporting cast of skill weapons and linemen. Seattle the call. |
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09-13-20 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 11-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Patriots 1:00: Not going to put a whole lot of stock into Miami's off season upgrades. Belichick still has a pretty good nucleus to build around. And a healthy Cam Newton should flourish in OC Josh McDaniels' system. The concern is the Patriots' offensive line with their longtime coach Dante Scarnecchia retiring. From what I hear, Patriots penciling a respectable fit and progress is shaping up with their off-season acquisitions. Defensively, however, Patriots should not miss a beat despite the losses of LB Hightower and Chung. CBs Gilmore and McCourty lead a very good secondary under Belichick. Dolphins will go with cagey veteran QB Fitzpatrick who does have a pretty good supporting cast. Running game was horrible last year but will improve with revamped offensive line and RBs Jordan Howard and speedy Matt Breida. But it will take time for Miami to gell. Remember, they're 1-7 ATS in New England and Belichick is still fuming about losing to his former assistant Flores in the last game of the season in 2019. Patriots the call. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Monroe v. Army -21.5 | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
UL-Monroe/Army 1:30: The Black Knight machine rolled to victory last week in a 42-0 knockout of MTU. A big winner for me. Today, we'll look for Army to keep it rolling. UL-Monroe not equipped with a whole lot of weaponry on both sides of the ball to counter the firepower of Army. From last year, the Warhawks lost their top two wide receivers, four starting offensive linemen, and versatile veteran QB Caleb Evans. Defensively, they were ranked 128th in the nation in Total Defense and don't have significant upgrades this year; after all, they had the 121st recruiting class in the nation. Army 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 13+ and 6-1 ATS in September. Army rolls. |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -126 v. Raptors | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Celtics/Raptors 9:00: Toronto is battling and two fine coaches going head to head; however, give the edge to the more subdued Stevens over the more the more animated Nurse. Boston has a bit more depth and playmakers and that should carry them here. |
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09-10-20 | Texans +10 v. Chiefs | 20-34 | Loss | -125 | 42 h 7 m | Show | |
Texans/Chiefs 8:20: Texans look to be in pretty good shape despite the trade of one of the best receivers in the NFL in Hopkins. Versatile QB Watson now has Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks, two really good acquisitions. And, of course, a healthy vertical threat in Will Fuller adds plenty to the mix; at the same time, consistency in the Texans' offensive line will help with all five offensive linemen from a year ago returning, including important cog Tytus Howard who only played in eight games last year. Every year the Texans' line has improved for Watson; moreover, now that RB acquisition David Johnson (trade from Arizona for Hopkins) is healthy, a run game will certainly take pressure off Watson. If you recall, Johnson was dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver at Arizona too. KC defense has its share of holes and they weren't consistently good vs the run last year. Sure, offensively, KC is loaded and will put up points. Texans new DC Weaver does have a better secondary to operate with this year and surely former KC cast offs including hybrid defensive back Eric Murray will help. Texans stewed all winter, spring and summer over giving up 24 point lead in last year's playoffs. We'll look for a competitive revenge game here with very little crowd noise at what is usually one of the loudest venues in the NFL. Road team 9-3 ATS in this series and we'll grab the Texans. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
09-08-20 | Heat -4 v. Bucks | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami/Milwaukee 6:30: Unlikely for Milwaukee to continue their success with Giannis struggling with a sprained ankle. Miami had its chance to close out this series Sunday but let up when Giannis went down. No suck let up tonight. Butler won't allow his teammates to get relaxed and we'll look for the Heat to turn it up. Milwaukee has not played well when given points as their 10-25-1 ATS mark indicate, including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 dog roles. Heat 23-8 ATS off a SU loss and 4-0 ATS as a favorite. Heat the call. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
BYU/Navy 8:00: Both offenses should be a bit sluggish tonight. Navy will not have the explosiveness of last year's attack led by Malcolm Perry (graduated). Dalen Morris has been getting the most reps and looks good; however, BYU has the formula to defend the vaunted triple option. The Cougars have mammoth run stoppers upfront and speedy linebackers who can fill. On the other hand, Cougars' offense will miss its top three receivers from last year and a huge loss is their TE Matt Bushman (Achilles); after all, they struggled in the red zone last year (120th out of 130 teams) and Zach Wilson will need a whole lot of magic to manufacture points; after all, Navy was good defensively last year (16th Total/ 34th scoring) and no longer a joke in the secondary. The Midshipmen have a top 40 pass defense. Technically, BYU 2-7 O/U in September and 7-15-1 O/U on road. Navy 2-7 O/U vs Independents and 2-5 O/U at home. "Under" it is. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat -2 | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
Bucks/Heat 3:30: I've been all over the Heat in every game of this series and I'm not jumping off now, especially with Giannis nursing a sprained ankle. Heat out hustling the Bucks in every facet of the game. Spoelstra will have his guys playing lights out. And Jimmy Butler- one of the fiercest competitors in the game- has the eye of the tiger mentality. It is infectious among his teammates. Underrated Adebayo doing an amazing job crashing the boards. And Dragic, ever since inserted as a starter, has been outstanding. Heat deliver. |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | 100-93 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
Toronto/Boston 6:30: Toronto was fortunate to pull out Game 3 so they do have a breath of air here; however, Boston, still playing well and Coach Stevens should make the needed adjustments. Boston the call. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State/Army 1:30: Army has been operating business as usual in their bubble throughout the pandemic, which gives them an advantage - especially with a new QB under center. Christian Anderson should get the nod and, although he won't have the juice that Ahmad Bradshaw brought to the field, he's meshed with his teammates all spring and should be productive. MTSU allowed 4.9 YPC last year and I don't see any upgrade in their run stop unit this year. MTSU does have a quality offense behind QB O'Hara; however, Army's defense was 33rd in the nation last year and they bring back much of their defensive line and linebacker corps. MTSU had two key offensive skill components opt out this year and they've had on and off practices throughout the spring. Army the call. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rockets/Lakers 9:00: Lakers had a bit of time to heal but LeBron James nursing a groin, A.D. - finger, and Rondo (back spasms) will take the floor. Rockets coming off an emotional high after delivering last second win over OKC and must make a quick transition to get back in the hungry state of mind. Lakers should be the favorite but tighter game I project. Lakers haven't been a good favorite (4-9 ATS) and just 1-7-1 ATS in Conference Semifinals. Rockets 9-3 ATS last 12 in Los Angeles. And they're playing well in the bubble and surely won't be intimidated. |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Milwaukee/Miami 6:30: Spoelstra dialing up the right moves as I hinted on before this series started. Starting Dragic is paying dividends. He has been a key supporter for go-to-guy Jimmy Butler. And Adebayo continues to be impressive on the glass. We'll look for Miami to hang around again and, perhaps steal another game. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
S. Alabama/Southern Miss 9:00: First meeting between these teams and we'll take the points. The Jaguars showed promise late last season when Desmond Trotter was inserted in as the starting QB. He ignited the stagnant offense. This season he has a veteran offensive line to call signals behind and good skill weaponry. As for the Golden Eagles, they're operating with two new coordinators on both sides of the ball and will miss 4 key players who opted out of this season. We'll look for the Jaguars to keep this competitive. |
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09-02-20 | Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
08-30-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. Raptors | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7 | 135-115 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
08-23-20 | Phillies v. Braves -103 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Celtics/76ers 1:00: We'll look for Boston to close strong again. 76ers' Embiid trying to do it all; in the process, getting to the free throw line and racking up points; however, he's gassed late because of a lack of accuracy from him and his supporting cast. 76ers shot just 29% collectively in Game 3. Boston is well oiled on both ends of the floor with a rhythmic offensive flow and can clamp down late. Boston to sweep. |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +2.5 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Rockets/Thunder 6:00: No reason why OKC can't bounce back here. OKC did well vs Houston during the regular season at home and at Houston. Houston is hot in the bubble getting lots of guys involved in scoring. Donovan is a pretty good coach and should find an effective strategy to counter offensive minded D'Antoni. Keep in mind that OKC is 5-0 SU after being in a 2-0 Playoff deficit. We'll back OKC |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-21-20 | Celtics -5.5 v. 76ers | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | 88-111 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Portland/Los Angeles 9:00: As indicated in Game 1 analysis, Lakers in dire need of third option. Game 1 result indicated what I suggested as LeBron and A.D. did their part but the rest of the Lakers contributed to just 32% shooting. And clutch shots were definitely missing. On the other hand, Portland continued their hot play in the Bubble as Lillard lit it up and he's getting good help from an assortment of players. Lakers sorely miss Avery Bradley (out) on both ends of the floor. A healthy Rondo would help but he's not in game shape. Look for Portland to be competitive again as their rhythmic offense continues. |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | Blazers +6.5 v. Lakers | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Blazers/Lakers 9:00: Lakers did not look good in the bubble going 1-6 ATS down the stretch. Blazers virtually outscored opponents in their August run with little defense. As it is, Blazers have more options at the moment surrounding Lillard. Lakers miss defensive stopper and good ball handling Avery Bradley (out). Rondo (thumb) is in a recovery mode and if plays, maybe a step slow. LeBron and Davis still the best tandem on the floor but without that consistent third option, this series should be more competitive. Blazers are 46-22 ATS in this series. And remember, they gave the Lakers fits in LA at 19-7 ATS. On this neutral floor where the Blazers are hitting shots, we'll grab the points in Game 1. |
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08-17-20 | A's +106 v. Diamondbacks | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Clippers 9:00: Mavericks have a dangerous offense behind Porzingis and Doncic; however, defensively they're not where they need to be and, ultimately, their youth should cost them here. Clippers come in with more experience, a top tier multiple NBA Finals MVP Leonard and his prolific scoring mate - George. Clippers' HC Rivers should script a solid defensive plan to slow Mavericks down; in addition, Clippers have significant edge in rebounding. Clippers 4-0 ATS in this series and can't trust the Mavericks in the NBA Conference Quarterfinals where they're a money burning 3-8 ATS. LA the call in G1. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 231 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Clippers 9:00: On the surface, these teams look to light up the scoreboard as they did in the first matchup August 3rd putting up 237 points; however, this series has gone just 2-3 O/U in its last 5 meetings and tonight pits two defensive minded coaches come playoff time. They've had time to scout strengths and weaknesses. Carlisle and Rivers should find ways to keep their opposing stars off balance. Mavericks are just 2-5 O/U on 3+ days rest. LA 2-8 O/U as a favorite. "Under" the call. |
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08-16-20 | A's -120 v. Giants | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
A's/Giants 4:05: Giants' defense a concern - allowing 6.05 RPG; moreover, relief pitching, more specifically - closing, has been the issue in this series. A's came back from a deficit in each of last two wins as Giants' closer Gott collapsed in each. More pressure should be put on the bullpen today with Logan Webb as the starter. On the surface, Webb's ERA looks good this season at 2.81 but carries a concerning WHIP of 1.50. More importantly, he hasn't seen the 6th inning of any of his starts. Possible more trouble late with the confidant bats of Oakland. We'll look for crafty veteran Mike Fiers to hold the fort down until the solid relief personnel of Oakland, including closer Hendriks (7 saves already) comes on to close it out. |
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08-14-20 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 1 m | Show |
Indians/Tigers 7:10: Indians' bats (30th ranked) not delivering the wins for Cleveland; however, pitching and defense (#1 ranked) is for them. Aaron Civale, who's looking sharp thus far, dominated the Tigers to the tune 3 ER over 20 2/3 IP last season. On the other hand, Ivan Nova for Detroit, has some juice left and should hurl a decent game against the struggling Indians' lineup. Nova sports a 4.24 ERA in 7 starts vs Cleveland. Both teams experiencing heavy "under" trends including this series which has gone "under" in 5 straight and 1-3-1 O/U in Detroit. "Under" it is. |
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08-14-20 | Indians v. Tigers +185 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
Indians/Tigers 7:10: Worth taking a crack at Detroit despite the loss of 1st baseman - Cron. Detroit is under good guidance by Manager Gardenhire. He'll most likely put Candelario at 1st in his shuffling tonight. The Tigers put journeyman Ivan Nova on the hill. He's a wily veteran who still has some stuff in him and occasionally shows glimpses of dominance. He was shaky in his last start but does control a respectable 3-3 mark with a 4.14 ERA in 7 starts vs the Indians. And he faces a cold hitting lineup batting a meager .195 on the season. Sure, the Indians will eventually break out at sometime but I don't believe it will be tonight. Indians counter with Aaron Civale who dominated the Tigers last season but does face a revamped lineup that's put some runs up this year (5.23 per game). After 17 straight losses to the Indians, the Tigers are overdue for a win and it should come here. |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Padres/Dodgers 9:40: Two pretty good starters take the mound tonight. Paddack sports a 3.18 ERA and did a good job on August 3rd vs Los Angeles allowing 3 runs over 6 innings to capture the win. His counterpart, Julio Urias controls a 2.40 ERA on the year and a 1.76 ERA vs San Diego. Dodgers' bats have cooled off a bit since that early season surge but their defense remains spot on which accounts for heavy "under" trends this season. SD not consistent in scoring but does have a better than normal lineup. Urias and that LA bullpen tough to get runs on especially in this pitchers' park. Series is 1-4 O/U and 2-10 O/U in the last 12 in Los Angeles. "Under" it is. |
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08-13-20 | Padres +134 v. Dodgers | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Padres/Dodgers 9:40: Slight edge to the Padres to win the series here. Paddack is capable of getting the job done as he demonstrated on August 3rd win. He's catching a Dodgers' lineup not at their best now in the meat of the order. Dodgers counter with southpaw Julio Urias who looks good but doesn't have the duration to give more than 5 good innings. This is a better Padres' lineup than he's faced in the past and we'll look for SD to bounce back after their loss yesterday. Padres 5-2 off a loss and we'll grab the discounted price. |
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08-11-20 | White Sox v. Tigers +102 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
ChiSox/Tigers 7:10: The Tigers are off to a strong start as Gardenhire using his lineup well and getting decent relief work en-route to their 4 game run. One of their relievers - Tyler Alexander - turned in a record setting performance with 9 consecutive strike outs vs Cincinnati. He gets his first start tonight and we'll roll with the lefty. He faces a simmering down Chicago lineup that was blistering hot to begin the month during a 4-0 run and then abruptly went cold losing 5 of their last 6 games. Veteran journeyman - Gio Gonzalez is off to a rough start with his new club with a 7.71 ERA over 3 starts. And he has not fared well in his career vs the Tigers with a 2-4 mark with a bloated 6.68 ERA over 7 starts. We'll back the Tigers here. |
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08-10-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Lakers 9:00: Lakers haven't played well since clinching #1 seed back on August 3rd. They've lost 3 straight and offensively out of rhythm. Meanwhile, Denver has won 3 of its last 4 and getting their usual great work out of Jokic and Murray; in addition, Porter Jr. has arrived as a consistent scorer for them. Denver the call. |
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08-09-20 | Diamondbacks +175 v. Padres | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona/San Diego 4:10: Worth taking a shot with surging D-Backs which have won 3 of their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Padres have lost 3 of their last 4. Padres do have Lamet who is off to a great start as a starter; however, Mad Bum, who has not been sharp, overdue to get back on track after signing a huge contract with Arizona. He gets to avenge his earlier season defeat to the Padres and should put in some quality innings here. D-Backs 4-1 in Game 3 of a series whereas Padres just 1-5 in same role. Arizona the call. |
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3.5 v. Pelicans | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 1 h 35 m | Show | |
Spurs/Pelicans 3:05: Spurs haven't had much success in Louisiana; however, home court advantage minimal at best in these empty arenas. Spurs lead the Pelicans by a 1/2 a game and sport a 4-1 mark as a dog. Pelicans should have Zion Williamson back on the floor but not a meaningful advantage. Spurs have covered their last 2 road games. And I'll take getting points with Popovich over Gentry in crucial games any day of the week. |
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08-08-20 | Suns v. Heat +2.5 | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Suns/Heat 7:35: Suns off to explosive start in resuming season (4-0) but should face trouble here. Suns just 5-21 in the last 26 in this series including 1-6 in Miami. Sure, Booker and Ayton have the pick and roll popping but with Oubre and Baynes laboring with knee injuries, Miami's well disciplined defense will be more tuned in to what is forthcoming tonight. Forwards' Oubre and Baynes are underrated double-digit scorers in the Suns' offense and have 83 combined starts. Sure, Butler (foot) and Dragic (ankle) are out and that hurts; however, Heat have players making plays including sharp shooting Duncan Robinson (44.3% from 3 pt. range) and C Adebayo who is a nightmare in the low post on both sides of the floor. Heat 21-6 ATS off a SU loss and we'll gladly take points. |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1 | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Celtics/Raptors 9:05: Raptors' defensive intensity at its zenith now. The Celtics are coming off a mere shoot around against the defenseless Nets - 149-115. Tonight, no easy looks for Boston. Toronto is looking to clinch the #2 seed behind Milwaukee and, in the process, eliminate Boston for the #2 seed. Toronto's defense creating opportunities offensively and they're not even getting their best offensive output from Leonard and Lowry. Like the work Van Vleet is delivering on both sides of the court. Toronto is 41-17-1 ATS on 1 day rest. Celtics have trouble in Toronto at 1-8 ATS. Toronto the call. |
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08-06-20 | Astros v. Diamondbacks -105 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Astros/Diamondbacks 7:07: Arizona finally broke out the whipping sticks yesterday with 14 runs to stop their 3 game slide. We'll look for continued run production behind Zac Gallen. Gallen looked good vs the hot hitting Dodgers with 9 strike outs in 6 innings while allowing just 2 ER. This is the first time he will face Houston and I believe he'll fare well. Houston counters with reliever Brandon Bielak in place of former D-Back Greinke. Bielak making his first big league start and should put increased pressure on the Astros' bullpen. D-Backs respectable 11-4 in interleague play and we'll ride them here. |