Cardinals/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have no business laying double digits to anybody. Their defense has lots of holes and offensively can't find a run game to fill injured Freeman's shoes. Cardinals still competitive and do have a decent secondary and a DE in Chandler Jones who can get after the QB. Sure, Arizona's offense is pathetic but still has weaponry in Fitzgerald, and RB David Johnson and respectable rookie QB Rosen. Cardinals should get the run game going against an injury ravaged Falcons' defense that allows 5 YPC. Cardinals are a respectable 3-1-1 ATS on the road and sport a 17-8 December ledger. Arizona the call. 

Rams/Bears 8:20: Rams have demonstrated road toughness and should measure up to the task here. Sure, it's freezing cold in Chicago now but plenty of the Rams' roster has experienced cold temperatures including WR Cooks, QB Goff, DT Donald, CBs Talib and Peters, and more. Bears' defense is outstanding and leads the league in forcing turnovers; however, it was exposed last week at NY. And remember, Rams' defense is right behind tied with Seattle in forcing turnovers and can surely sack the QB. Trubisky (shoulder) is back in the fray and he'll try to avoid drop back vertical routes with the flush pocket extraordinaire - Aaron Donald leading the charge. But DE Fowler can handle Trubisky spilling to him. Trubisky is not yet a prime time QB as demonstrated last season vs Green Bay, this season at GB, and this season against Seattle (2 INTs). Edge to the Rams who are at the elite level with Chicago still nipping at their heels. 

Vikings/Patriots 4:25: The bye week did New England justice as they got healthier and reloaded for a strong December run. NE is one of the great late season teams with a December ledger of 66-48 ATS including 34-20 ATS at home. Gronk is getting healthier , RB Michel is back in the fray, and QB Brady is in rhythm with his receiving corps. Vikings have not had success vs the Patriots (0-3 ATS) or the AFC East in which they've gone a poor 4-15 SU including laying an egg against Buffalo in Week 3. Patriots usually thrive at home in this price range at this time of year and we'll jump on them here.  

Seahawks/Panthers 1:00: Seahawks have been competitive in every road game this season and sport a 17-8-2 ATS mark in their last 27 road games vs teams with winning home records. Seattle is right there in the fight for the NFC Wild Card and Carolina is showing signs of fading despite their perfect home record and overall winning record at 6-4. The Panthers got blown out by Pitt two weeks ago on MNF and then coughed up a late lead against the mediocre Lions. Panthers were outgained in rushing yards in both those games and now face the leading rushing team in the NFL. RBs Carson, Davis and Penny are carrying the load well; moreover, QB Russell Wilson is having another superb season (23 TD/5 INT). I'm concerned with WR Baldwin (groin) who is questionable at this time, but Lockett and Moore are doing a fine job getting open. On the other hand, Seattle's defense needs to force more turnovers and address McCaffrey today. Leading WR Funchess will be out but there are plenty of weapons at the disposal of QB Newton. We'll look for Carroll to have his men well prepared and deliver. Seattle a perfect 11-0 ATS as a conference dog off a SU/ATS win. 

Michigan/OSU Noon: I mentioned before the season started that Michigan had what it took to be a Final Four team; at this time, I still believe that. The Wolves have the #1 defense in the nation vs the pass and in total yards. Sure OSU QB Haskins is putting up big numbers but I'm not sold on him being a big game QB, especially in crunch time. He did help deliver a dramatic come from behind win at Penn State but got an amazing catch and run help from WR Ben Victor. And sure, OSU will see the end zone, their offense (#2 in the nation) is too prolific to stop. But defensively, OSU allows way too many yards; as a matter of fact, the Buckeyes allow nearly 180 more yards per game than Michigan's defense. That will not cut it against the offense Harbaugh has finally spent years building. And he finally landed the QB he wanted in Shea Patterson. Patterson should have a big game against an OSU defense that has sacked the QB only 19 times this season. That's twelve fewer than last year; of course, Nick Bosa's absence hurt them. But bottom line, OSU's defensive problems have resulted in a 1-6 ATS slide for them. I jumped on Michigan early in the week when this line opened; of course it has been bid up to -4' but still worth jumping on. I do realize that OSU is a dog for the first time in 51 games; however, it's well justified here as Harbaugh gets his first victory over OSU with authority!

Buffalo/Bowling Green Noon: Bowling Green feeling pretty good about themselves after back-to-back wins against conference lightweight - Central Michigan and offensive inept Akron. Today, back to reality for them as Leipold's boys run them ragged. The Bulls, coming off an embarrassing defeat to a very good Ohio U team, should have it together today. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Buffalo has serious offensive weaponry with tall/versatile QB Jackson, vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and hard running RB Patterson. Sure, statistically, BG has a good pass defense; however, that is because teams can easily run on them. BG's run-stop-unit is allowing 6 YPC! We'll look for a heavy dose of RB Patterson to set up a big scoring fest. We'll look for a usually solid Bulls' defense to tighten up and unleash on BG QB Doege. He's pretty good but his offensive line has issues protecting him and Buffalo should get back their defensive mojo here. BG HC Jinks just 2-7 ATS as a conference home dog. Buffalo the call.

Eagles/Saints 4:25: Everybody and their brother on the Saints after 7 straight covers and blowout win over Cincinnati. And yes, Brees is on fire, RB Kamara is a matchup nightmare, and the Saints' run stop unit is menacing. Nevertheless, too many points to an Eagles team coming off a loss. Eagles, 7-3 ATS off a SU loss, beaten by an average of 4.4 PPG in their 5 defeats with none greater than a TD. Pederson 5-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Yes, Eagles' secondary is thin with CB Darby (ACL) out; however, CB Douglas is capable of rising to the occasion and CB Sidney Jones is back in action. Also keep in mind the strength of the Eagles defensive line which can add Bennett and rookie Sweat to the mix. Saints without OT Armstead, could be an attacking point for Philadelphia. And remember, QB Wentz got in a groove last week and should torch a Saints' pass defense that has given up nearly 300 YPG - worse than the Eagles. And with Saints' killer - Golden Tate now in the mix, Eagles should be in this one. Tate, while with Detroit, caught 35 passes for 485 yards against the Saints. Finally, with New Orleans at 0-7 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a less than .500 non-division opponent, Eagles the way to go here. 

Chargers/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks on a nice roll as HC Carroll once again steers his team on a run for a playoff birth. Chargers are also doing well but the benefactor of a soft schedule enabling them to beat the sub-par teams. Anthony Lynn now just 3-8 ATS vs winning teams and 1-6 ATS vs opponents off a SU win. Sure, they're coming off a bye but just 3-8 ATS with rest. Without Bosa (foot) wreaking havoc on QBs, we'll look for elusive QB Wilson to keep getting it done, especially now that the run game (3rd in NFL) is cooking. Seattle the call. 

Georgia/Kentucky Noon: Good value with the Bulldogs equipped to deliver another knockout here. Last year, a 41-13 thrashing. Sure, Georgia graduated many of those players but reloaded with another top 3 FBS class. Kentucky does possess the top scoring defense in the nation but this will be their biggest test with a well balanced run game, a veteran QB Fromm and some top flight receivers. On the other hand, Kentucky relies on jump starting their offense with the power ground game led by Snell. Georgia's rock solid defense is wired to stop this team and surely QB Terry Wilson won't pick the ball hawking Bulldogs' secondary apart. Georgia is a sweet 15-0 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a conference opponent off a SU dog win. Georgia cruises.

Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Matt Patricia not ready for prime time against Super Bowl winning coach Pete Carroll. Carroll's boys coming off a successful trip to London and well rested. Teams coming off that week of rest after the London gig have a high percentage win rate and we'll gladly take the points here. Defensively, the Seahawks were supposed to be in a major overhaul but are getting healthier (K.J. Wright back) and Bobby Wagner is the highest rated LB in production in the NFL after seven weeks. Moreover, Seattle might not generate lots of sacks but are in the top 7 generating pressure on QBs at 31.7% of the time. Offensively, Seattle's RB Chris Carson has 352 rushing yards and should put a dent in the 30th ranked run-stop-unit of Detroit; consequently, QB Wilson, who's having another fine year, should find Lockett and Baldwin for significant gains. Seattle sports a 10-0 ATS mark as a conference dog off SU/ATS win. Seattle the call. 

NC State/Clemson 3:30: NC State has played a light schedule but odds makers over adjusted with the generous amount of points. Clemson has been over valued much of the year as their 2-4 ATS mark illustrates. And the Tigers haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents either - Furman, GA Southern, as well as struggling conference foes G Tech and Wake Forest. And the blowout of WF surely lends value. NC State has covered 6 of the last 8 in this series and won't go into Death Valley intimidated. NC State has an efficient offense run by ACC's top passer Finley (335 YPG). And he's only been sacked twice this year. He's got a good arsenal of weaponry including WR Harmon. Moreover, like the NC State defense which allows just 16.8 PPG. Wolfpack HC Doeren an outstanding 36-6 SU when his team outgains opponent. And throw in that the Wolfpack is 12-0 ATS as a conference dog with rest and we have ourselves a Top Play. 

Rams/Broncos 4:05: Broncos' defense got gashed to the tune of 512 yards last week vs New York. Denver is 30th in league against the run and that doesn't bode well against the league's #1 offense. Rams are in a nice rhythm offensively and can't see the Broncos stopping them here; especially, with Cooks and Kupp now ready for action after being in concussion protocol last week. And defensively, Rams should shape up after a disappointing outing at Seattle last week. Suh and Donald licking their chops against turnover prone Keenum (7 INT). And in October, Rams a sweet 12-1 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Vance Joseph a money burning 1-6 ATS as a dog of 3 or more. Rams the call. 

Colorado/USC 10:30: Like the chances of the vengeful Buffaloes. Colorado has been competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS yet hasn't beaten them in over a decade. Colorado is a sweet 7-0 ATS on the road with revenge. USC, however, is a poor 2-12 ATS vs conference opponents with revenge off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. USC defense a shell of what it used to be and accurate QB Montez (75% completions with 14 TD/2 INT) can keep the Buffaloes in this one. Colorado sports a solid veteran defense that allows just 18.4 PPG. Not a fan of the inconsistent USC offensive line. We'll look for them to keep QB J.T. Daniels and company at bay. 

Denver/NY 1:00: Tough spot for Denver - coming off heartbreaking MNF loss and having to travel cross country to play a fired up Jets team with heavy hearts and desperate for a win. Jets found out mid week that their DC Kacy Rodgers has serious health issues and that should inspire the Jets' players. Todd Bowles will assume the DC duties and his unit should continue to be disruptive and add to their 10 forced fumbles. Bowles was not happy with his defense after they gave up 503 yards last week to Jacksonville. Denver does have a bruising run game but lack firepower through the air as QB Keenum with only 3 TD passes while throwing 6 INTs. We'll look for his counterpart Darnold to outplay him as he is overdue for a big game since that Week 1 magical day in Detroit. Denver defense not what it used to be in terms of forcing turnovers and getting critical key stops. And Denver sports a very poor 1-8 ATS road mark under HC Joseph. Jets a good October team at 6-0-1 ATS and we'll roll with them here. 

Northwestern/Michigan State Noon: Rough three game skid for Northwestern; however, competitive all season including last week vs Michigan when their offense shut down in the second half. Look for Fitzgerald's boys to step up their game here. NW is 12-5 ATS after accumulating less than 275 years the previous week. And NW has covered 4 straight on the Big Ten road and an amazing 7 straight at East Lansing. I like NW's LBs Fisher and Gallagher. And their defensive line led by Joe Gaziano and Jordan Thompson should be disruptive to the Spartan's offensive line which has struggled all season. Northwestern the call. 

Ravens/Steelers 8:20: This series has been extremely competitive where the dog has taken the money in 5 of the last 6. Tonight, Ravens should deliver again. They've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Steelers and are in a triple revenge mode. I do realize top corner Jimmy Smith (suspended) will be missed; however, Ravens, which sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, will do some sort of bracketing on Antonio Brown.  Baltimore had an extra prep day and catching Pitt (off MNF win) on a short prep week. And I don't like Tomlin's 0-7 ATS mark off a SU win. I do like Joe Flacco's reemergence as a standout NFL QB. He finally has a skill supporting cast he's comfortable with in Crabtree, Brown and Snead. And RB Alex Collins is a horse near the goal line. The Ravens are capitalizing on Red Zone opportunities this year (100%) and that doesn't bode well against a Steelers' defense in the bottom tier in total defense and 31st in Red Zone defense since the beginning of 2017. Ravens the call. 

Utah/Washington State 6:00: Like getting points with a Washington State team that's been hot at home (7-0 ATS) and in September (7-0 ATS). Cougars have an outstanding QB in Minshew II (71% completions / 11 TD/ 3 INT). He torched the USC defense last week and should find ways in moving the football against Utah's defense. Sure, Utah has the nation's #1 ranked defense; however,  that rank is somewhat misleading with N. Illinois and Weber State on schedule in two of three of their games. The problem with Utah is their offense in which fumbled seven times and two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ball hawking and should be on their game at home. Furthermore, Leach has had Whittingham's number as Washington State sports a 3-0 ATS mark in this series. Cougars deliver.

Bengals/Panthers 1:00: Bengals off a physical battle with Baltimore should be in store for a tough outing here. Panthers are dangerous off a loss (4-0 ATS) and 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Moreover, Rivera is a sweet 7-0 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a division game. Bengals have some skill players banged up and should suffer first loss here.

Seahawks/Broncos 4:25: Look for the Seahawks to get out of the gate strong this year after a disappointing 2017 season. Seahawks addressed a few key issues over the summer including rebuilding the departed Legion of Boom. Shaq Griffin was a great draft choice as he will start at outside backer. He should do well with underrated man in the middle Bobby Wagner as a mentor. And with six time pro bowl safety Earl Thomas starting today, I feel good about the Seahawks' defense again. And yes, Carroll has some studs on the first line of defense with Clark, Reed, Stephens, Jordan healthy with quality depth brought in from the off-season and through the draft. Someone will emerge! Offensively, the offensive line has had consistency for a change under new Offensive Line Coach - Mike Solari; consequently, one of the best QB's in the NFL Russell Wilson should be firing away. And the exciting RB Chris Carson is back healthy after breaking leg early last season. And let's not forget about the Seahawks' receiving targets led by Doug Baldwin. Seahawks under the radar and I'm looking for them to deliver against Case Keenum and company. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in Denver and I'm taking the points.

Penn State/Pittsburgh 8:00: Narduzzi has stepped up in big games as demonstrated in 2016 knocking off Clemson and last year whipping Miami-Fla. The Panthers are out for revenge from last year's 33-14 loss at Happy Valley.Panthers covered that and are 5-0-1 ATS vs Penn State. Keep in mind the significant losses of Penn State on defense. And the graduation losses were apparent last week in giving up 451 yards to Appalachian State. It won't get easier tonight against a Pittsburgh team that can run the football. And defensive minded Narduzzi finally has a veteran defensive unit that can be molded into those Michigan State teams in which he DC'd a few years back. Pittsburgh the call. 

Iowa State/Iowa 5:00: I like where Iowa State is heading with Matt Campbell. They're coming off a fantastic year in which they went 10-2 ATS including outright wins against TCU and at Oklahoma. The Cyclones have reloaded with a majority of the well disciplined offense that lost a fumble only one time! And QB Kempt, who has explosive target Butler back, completed 66% of his passes with 130 straight completions without an interception. And I like Iowa State's defense which gets to the QB and has a ball hawking secondary. Hawkeyes, however, may be in declining stage with graduation losses to key players on both sides of the ball. Iowa State is hungry and loaded for revenge from last year's 44-41 OT thriller. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS at Kinnick Stadium and I'm rolling with the Cyclones. 

Miami-Fla/LSU 7:30: Sure, LSU has a great history on this field (AT&T Stadium in Arlington), but not buying into Ed Orgeron who's flopped vs quality opposition. He's a meager 5-20 SU vs SEC foes as a head coach. He has another new OC in retread Ensminger. And his DC Aranda is a middle of the road, at best, running a defense. Ensminger has to groom another new starting QB - Joe Burrow - an Ohio State transfer. And it appears to be a wide open pass oriented offense. That spells trouble vs the ball hawking Hurricanes' secondary with S Jaquan Johnson. Offensively, Miami-Fla duel threat QB Rosier equipped with a bucket load of quality athletes including RB Homer, should carve up the LSU defense. LSU has lost 14 returning starters and a host of players with extensive field time. LSU 1-4 vs the ACC and should see more trouble here. 

 Michigan/Notre Dame 7:30: These teams last met on this field in 2014 in the Brady Hoke era. ND crushed them 31-0. Now that Harbaugh has taken over the reigns, this storied rivalry renews Saturday. Like the Wolves here after an underachieving 2017. Harbaugh is loaded on defense with 10 returning starters on a unit that ranked 13th in the nation in scoring defense last year. And Harbaugh has finally found the missing piece that has kept him from making a run to the Final Four. He landed Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson who is equipped with a solid supporting cast. I do realize Michigan won't have #1 receiver Tarik Black (foot), but Peoples-Jones and Oliver Martin can pick up the slack. And remember, Big Blue should have the smash mouth run game back with a solid O-Line and two downhill runners in Higdon (good to go) and Evans. Concerned about top DE Gary though. Nevertheless, Michigan should give ND QB Wimbush fits. He's not the greatest passer and graduation has hit ND on the offense with four off to the NFL including two on the left side of the offensive line. And five senior starters from the defense graduated. Feel good getting a point as the dog in this series is 11-5; moreover, Harbaugh 9-0 SU in non-conference regular season. Wolves ready to make a run this year!

Eagles/Patriots 6:30: Patriots opened at -5' with Gronk (concussion) inevitably waiting to be cleared; however, heavy action came in on the Eagles at some casinos; consequently, line dropped to -4' and should settle there. Bettors are getting caught up in the stats to where the Patriots - as a favorite - are not dominant winners in the Super Bowl with Brady and Belichick; as a matter of fact, they're just 2-4 ATS in the favorite role. Nevertheless, I'm not falling for the bait and going with the greatest QB of all time and his future Hall of Fame coach. Again, you look at the stats and it becomes worrisome if you're a Patriots' backer. Defensively, they're in the bottom tier of the league in giving up yards. A closer look, however, will tell you they're in the top tier in points allowed. Yes, they bend but don't break - tough in the red zone and limit explosive plays. Patriots find ways of taking away your strength, creating mistakes and let the #1 offense do its thing in a near flawless way when needed. Patriots' Brady at his best when the moment is at its greatest. Moment may be too big for Foles, however. We'll look for Patriots' defense to take away the Eagles' strong run game and put the pressure on Foles - similar to what they did late against Bortles - resulting in 0-6 in Jacksonville's last six third down conversions. We'll look for Patriots' machine to keep rolling and cover here. 

Alabama/Clemson 8:45: Have a problem with this line for the Tigers are the #1 seed and getting points. I'll gladly take the Tigers and 3 points with the dangerous bowl dog HC Swinney. Dabo Swinney is a sweet 5-0 ATS when getting points in bowl games. And we know what happened the last two vs Alabama. Clemson can match defensive greatness with arguably the best defensive front in the nation. And QB Kelly Bryant is more accurate and every bit as fleet footed as counterpart Jalen Hurts. Bryant has a strong supporting cast of skill players and lineman to penetrate the Alabama defense that does have its weaknesses in the secondary. We'll look for the Tide to drop to 0-5 ATS in January. Clemson the call. 

Iowa State/Memphis 12:30: Like the toughness Iowa State exhibits. Defensively, they give up yards but limit explosive plays and tighten the bolts in the red zone. They allowed a very respectable 21 PPG (29th in FBS) considering they've faced some of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA, including beating Oklahoma outright in Norman, throttling Texas Tech, beating TCU while holding them to just 7 points. Sure, Memphis sports one the top offenses in the nation but will be without their OC Dickey who is off to TX A&M in the same role; remember, we found out with Missouri on how an offensive coordinator's departure can ruin offensive chemistry. We'll look for Iowa State's efficient offense, with NO FUMBLES on the season, can move the ball with 1000+ yard rusher David Montgomery (probable) against the sieve-like Memphis defense (120th in nation). Iowa State should be able to eat clock and gain yards while keeping QB Riley Ferguson on the sidelines. And Cyclones' QB Kyle Kent is no scrub. He's got NFL prospect Allen Lazard as a great vertical threat. Iowa State the call. 

Stanford/TCU 9:00: Respect TCU's Patterson and his rock solid run stop unit but going with the Cardinal. TCU just 2-6 ATS in bowls and 2-9 ATS on neutral fields. On the other hand, Shaw's bunch is 4-0 ATS vs the Big 12, 6-2 ATS in bowls and 5-1 ATS on neutral fields. I realize the Cardinal struggled early in the year but Stanford got their offense rolling when QB Costello (11/3 TD/INT) took over. He's got a sure handed target in Arcego-Whiteside. And let's not forget about the major offensive fuel behind Stanford's offense - RB Bryce Love (8.3 YPC) ran for record numbers on a sprained ankle late in the year. Love's ankle feels great and surely TCU's run-stop-unit will be sorely tested against a veteran offensive line. TCU's offense is potent too but not a fan of QB Kenny Hill in big games. He's facing a Stanford defense that got better as the season progressed. Stanford sports a +15 turnover margin (#2 in nation) and should make fewer mistakes than TCU tonight. Stanford the call. 

Dolphins/Bills 1:00: Bills got swept in this series last year including a rare loss at New Era Field on Christmas Eve; however, unlikely to happen today in freezing temperature in Buffalo. Miami sports a money burning 48-67 ATS mark in December. And let's remember they're last two games were at home where they are quite comfortable; however, on the road, Miami has been outscored by 91 points as a traveler in 5 games this year. Buffalo's RB McCoy is running well and Tyrod Taylor will be back behind center. Dolphins coming off a huge win as I projected last Monday. Dolphins 1-6 ATS off a MNF game and should lay an egg here. 

Seahawks/Jaguars 4:25: Pete Carroll always finds a way for his troops to stay in games and no different here. Sure, Seattle has a few key injuries (Chancellor, Sherman) and Wagner and Bennett are questionable; at the same time, it is December football and no one is completely healthy with the Jags having their share of injuries too. I'm not completely sold on the Jaguars who suffer the Jekyll and Hyde personality with a 1-5 ATS ledger off an ATS win. And their December ledger is nothing to write home about at 40-54 SU. The Jaguars' defense has been awesome with an awesome sack percentage without blitzing; however, the Seahawks took care of one of the best NFL defensive units last week against Philadelphia; today, Russell Wilson (MVP frontrunner) and company should find a way to work the weakness of the Jaguars' secondary. On the other end of the spectrum, with the game is on the line, Bortles is not the guy you want running the show. I'll gladly take the points with the Seahawks who are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road tilts and 5-1 in Week 14. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Go back to October 16th when the Colts were banged up yet covered for 59 1/2 minutes against the Titans until RB Henry broke loose for a meaningless 72 yard run with 47 seconds remaining. Colts are coming off their bye-week pretty healthy. Keep in mind that the Colts covered three straight leading in to their bye - holding foes to an average of just 298 YPG, including almost upsetting Pittsburgh as a 10 point dog. Colts are 18-11 SU off a bye and dangerous as a dog of more than a point at 15-1 ATS! Tennessee, on the other hand, is a money burning 11-23-2 ATS off a SU loss and 0-9 ATS at Indianapolis. And you've lost your shirt consistently betting on Tennessee with a collective 17-46 ATS overall slide. Colts' QB Brissett is doing a bang up job filling in for Luck (shoulder). He's passed concussion protocol and good to go today. We'll look for the Colts to avenge their earlier season loss. 

USF/UCF 3:30: Both of these teams have taken on a relatively light schedule but believe UCF is more equipped to deliver. USF has been a prohibitive favorite in every game this season and will get rocked here. UCF is well balanced with few weaknesses. The 'Knights are tied for the #1 turnover margin in the nation equipped with a ball hawking secondary led by Gibson and Hughes who have combined for seven interceptions. And of course, their defensive front plays a big role getting after the passer. USF' O-line has shielded QB Flowers quite well this season allowing just 14 sacks but will face his toughest test today vs a fast and powerful UCF front seven. Offensively, the Golden Nights boast the #1 scoring offense in the nation led by QB Milton who has a veteran line and great skill supporting cast. UCF HC Frost ran the Oregon high flying offense under Chip Kelly and runs a similar offensive machine here. We'll look for a little extra today after bitter taste in mouth remains from last year's 48-31 loss when then coach - Taggart elected to score a touchdown with 11 seconds left with the game in hand. UCF the call. 

Ravens/Packers 1:00: There's a reason why the Ravens are a slight favorite here on a field they haven't won on beyond this century (0-4 ATS). Ravens are a well rested bunch off a bye week and getting healthy. As we know this season, teams off a bye are 11-4; Baltimore is a sweet 7-2 ATS off a bye under Harbaugh, including 2-1 ATS on the road. They're also 8-1 ATS laying more than a point with rest. And QB Flacco is getting back a few weapons this week in RB Woodhead and WR Maclin. On the other hand, GB coming off a win but even more banged up. The Packers' O'Line has surrendered 30 sacks (bottom tier of NFL) this year and have their versatile QB Hundley laboring with a hamstring issue. Like the ball hawking secondary of Baltimore; moreover, the stingy run stop unit of Baltimore should handcuff GB into forced east/west passing with their top two running backs banged up. Baltimore the call. 

Michigan/Wisconsin Noon: Now that Harbaugh has settled in on Brandon Peters as the QB, the Wolves are not turning the football over and keeping coach happy while pounding the ball with RB Chris Evans. Wisconsin's QB Hornibrook, on the other hand, has an interception problem - getting picked in every conference game this season. That does not bode well against Don Brown's well disciplined defense. Michigan plays into Wisky's strength - the run game and I'm going to bet the Wolves don't get gashed like the other Badgers' opponents. Wisconsin's played a relative soft schedule and will get tested here. Michigan's held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 14 points or less. We'll roll with Big Blue here knowing they're 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games, and 6-1 ATS as dogs off a double digit ATS win. We'll gladly take a touchdown and hook as our top play!

Texans/Rams 4:05: I'm still fading the Texans with Savage as the QB. The offense is reduced considerably without Watson and the Rams' defense isn't forgiving. The Rams' defense allows 19 PPG and sound against the run and ball hawking in the secondary. I don't see Lamar Miller establishing a run game against Aaron Donald and company. On the other hand, the Rams are rolling offensively with a plethora of weapons at the disposal for QB Goff. Rams dropping 33 PPG on teams and now that vertical threat Watkins is getting involved, more upside awaits. Don't see the pedestrian Houston offense trading points effectively here. Texans 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with winning home record. Rams the call. 

Michigan State/Ohio State Noon: Value with the Spartans which have covered four straight in Columbus; as a matter of fact, the visitor in this series during the regular season has not only covered but won SU six straight times! Sure, OSU is fired up off one of the biggest losses in the Urban Meyer era; however, Michigan State clearly no pushover with the 12th ranked defense (total yards) in the NCAA and they play well against OSU's strength - the run. JT Barrett and Dobbins are a formidable force on the ground but the Spartans are 3rd in the nation against the run and have a disciplined secondary; moreover, like the QB play of the Spartans' QB Lewerke who has passed for +400 yards in two straight games including last week against Penn State. And Michigan State grinds out 157 YPG on the ground. They'll clearly make it difficult for the Buckeyes. Buckeyes a troublesome 1-7 ATS after allow more than 35 points. Michigan State the call. 

Colts/Texans 1:00: Mid week, this line dropped sharply from Hou -11 to -7 on the announcement of QB Watson's injury (ACL). Enter Tom Savage and Houston's explosive offense is now reduced to its early in the season pedestrian attack. Savage was merely an average, at best, QB in college. Now, he does have Will Fuller and a some surrounding skill talent; however, he moves like a drunken alligator in the pocket and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Clearly, the QB running threat taken out of the equation, which worked so well when Deshaun Watson was running the show. On the other hand, Colts' QB Brissett doing a great job and should guide his bunch into the end zone frequently vs a Texans' defense that's allowing 27 PPG. Sure, Colts are even worse; however, they've played the Texans tough in Texas going 3-0-1 ATS there. And let's not forget HC Pagano's record of 14-2 ATS as a dog of more than 1 point off a SU loss. Indy the call.

Bears/Saints 1:00: Bears' defense was depleted in linebackers weeks ago vs Minnesota yet still managed to cover; as a matter of fact, they've covered 4 of their last 5 games. DC Vic Fangio has done a sensational job preparing his unit. Over the last two weeks, the Bears' defense have been an opportunistic group forcing multiple turnovers and three defensive scores. Sure, Saints' offense running on all cylinders but they most likely will be without their best receiver - Michael Thomas (knee). And Trubisky is getting comfortable in the system and surely offers a different dimension to the offense with his scrambling ability; moreover, run game with Howard and Cohen is solid and should give the underachieving Saints' defense problems; moreover, Trubisky will have Dontrelle Inman from the Chargers and he'll see action. Bears 8-0 ATS off SU/ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. 

Panthers/Bucs 1:00: Carolina coming off two losses but should get it back together with All-Pro linebacker Kuechly cleared to play. The Panthers' defense so much better with him in the lineup and a legitimate #1 defense. Offensively, Carolina has to clean up their game. They're minus 8 turnover and that's not the makeup off a playoff team. Newton should, however, help ignite the offense against a TB defense that has trouble rushing the passer. Newton's been under duress virtually all year and should find his MOJO here. Panthers 6-2 ATS in the series. And remember that they're 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS in Tampa. Panthers deliver. 

Louisville/Florida State Noon: Big revenge game for the Seminoles who were embarrassed at Louisville last year 63-20. This year, Florida State defense much healthier including the return of safety Derwin James who missed last year's game. Fla State offense reading pedestrian in the stats; however, a closer look reveals an increased run game over the last few weeks with breakout performances from RBs Akers and Patrick; consequently, that's taking pressure off QB Blackman who struggles at times but makes big plays and growing every week. I'm looking for Jimbo Fisher to dial up a nice plan of attack against a Louisville run defense that's gotten gashed in recent weeks including allowing BC 364 yards! Louisville is on a 3-13 ATS slide overall and 0-6 ATS in conference games after allowing 35+ points. Florida State delivers.

Rams/Jaguars 4:05: Who would have thought the Rams would be one of the most prolific scoring teams in the NFL at this point of the season with 30.4 PPG? A revamped offensive line, some good off season acquisitions for skill personnel and good coaching. We'll look for Gurley and company to work the Jaguars' shaky run-stop-unit. Last week, the Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger 10 times! Jaguars have been a puzzle. They've looked like world beaters one week and lost the next. They've alternated wins and losses since opening week -- in which I had them pegged to beat Houston. Remember, HC Doug Marrone sports just a 2-9 ATS mark off a SU dog win when facing a non division opponent. And he's 1-7 ATS vs a non division opponent off a SU loss. Today, I'm fading a Jaguars team that's 14-24 ATS in October and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at EverBank Field. We'll look for savvy LA DC Wade Phillips to dial up some heat on Fournette and company. Surely, QB Bortles has been less than stellar off big wins. Rams 11-5-1 ATS in week 6 and we'll roll with them.

Oklahoma/Texas 3:30: Revenge game for Texas and we'll side with Tom Herman who has the Longhorns heading in the right direction. Texas has covered 4 straight after their disastrous season opening loss at home to Maryland. Longhorns' Freshman QB Ehlinger getting it done and gaining confidence in the process; moreover, he gets back starting center Shackelford. As for OU, injuries are popping up: safety Parker, RB Adams, WR Lamb, G Samia, DL Lampkin. I do realize QB Mayfield is a winner but questioning new leadership of sooners under Lincoln Riley. Too many points to give to a hungry and vengeful Longhorns team that's gone 4-1-1 ATS at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in this series. Texas the call.  

Cardinals/Eagles 1:00: Cardinals not as bad as line indicates and Philadelphia not as good as line indicates. You do remember how Philadelphia shot out of the gate strong at 3-0 before losing 9 of their next 11. I don't know about another free fall for them but they should have trouble in this spot. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in this series and Arians sports a superb 19-6 SU/ATS mark vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, the Cardinals are 11-1 ATS on the road vs a .700 or greater non division team. Arizona defense showing gradual signs of improvement. On the other hand, Philadelphia's pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL and vulnerable here; after all, Carson Palmer has rung up some big numbers on the Eagles (905 yards with 6 TDs). We'll take the points.

Mia Fla/Florida State 3:30: Jimbo Fisher has owned Mia Fla since he's been head coach. Fla State is 7-0 SU in this series but it should definitely end today; after all, the Seminoles have been hanging on after QB Francois got injured against Alabama. Blackman, his replacement, has been spotty at best. He did make a big play last week at WF to survive; however, those occasional big plays won't be enough against this Mia-Fla team. The 'Canes are officially back under Richt and dangerous on both sides of the ball. Mia-Fla's QB Rosier has a boat load of weapons including RB Walton (ankle) who is above average even with a sprained ankle. Canes are pounding out nearly 200 yards of offense more than the Seminoles. And the Hurricanes' defense is allowing just 16.3 PPG with an opportunistic ball hawking secondary. Canes in a good spot as favorites of more than 2 points in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. Mia-Fla the call. 

Colts/Seahawks 8:30: Good spot for the Seahawks on the Prime Time slot where Pete Carroll has thrived. Seattle is overdue for a big game and it should come here. Indy is feeling good after squeaking by the struggling Browns; however, a significant step up at the noisiest venue in the NFL for QB Brissett. Seattle defense was embarrassed last week in Tennessee and eager to atone for that tonight on national TV. T.Y. Hilton, who caught 153 yards and a TD should be locked down by Richard Sherman. And the fierce Seattle pass rush should win the battle of the LOS against a struggling Colts' offensive line. Defensively, the Colts are allowing a generous 30 PPG and that's the perfect elixir for a Seattle offense on the verge of gaining momentum. Seattle is a sweet 22-6-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards previously. Seattle has also proven to bounce back strong off SU losses at 7-2 ATS. They've also covered 5 of their last 7 home tilts. Seattle rolls.

Memphis/Central Fla 7:00: UCF sports a veteran unit on both sides of the ball that went bowling last year. They're well balanced with a potent offense led by QB McKenzie (67% completions - 5 TD/1 INT). They'll rip through a tattered Memphis defense that has been ravaged by injuries. Already with 3 starters out, their safety Shaun Rupert left the game on crutches last week. And the Tigers are in the lower tier defensively in most categories to begin with. UCF's Scott Frost will most definitely find ways of exploiting the weaknesses. As for Memphis offense, they're explosive; however, the 12th ranked scoring defense of the Knights can hold their own on this field. The host in this series is 5-0 ATS and UCF is poised to deliver.

Chiefs/Chargers 4:25: Andy Reid usually finds a way to dispatch the lower tier teams of the conference and, surely in the division. Chiefs 10-1 ATS vs less than .500 division opponent off a non division game. And Reid finally has some great offensive skill impact players: explosive vertical threat Tyreek Hill, newfound super RB Kareem Hunt and the second best tight end in the NFL Kelsey. And the offensive line is doing an outstanding job while Alex Smith is enjoying a breakout year: 78% 5 TDs/0 INT. Defensively, Derrick Johnson has made it back from injury and Justin Houston and Chris Jones are ruthless as pass rushers. Reid has owned the AFC West and the declining Chargers are not standing in their way. QB Rivers has struggled against KC to the tune of 5 TD/7 INTs. Chargers are finding new ways to lose games and are not welcomed in Los Angeles -- attendance low. With SD just 1-7 ATS as a home dog of 3 or more with revenge against an opponent over .400, KC the call. 

Cincinnati/Navy 3:30: Value with the good traveling team here as a double digit dog. Navy's offense hasn't shown the dominance it has in the past few years. They're facing a stout defense that went to the Big House in Ann Arbor and held Michigan to a three touchdowns earned. We'll look for the well disciplined Bearcats' defense to play sound assignment football vs the Midshipmen Triple Option. On the other hand, the Bearcats' offense needs work but Navy's defense has areas in the secondary that can be exploited. Bearcats' QB Hayden Moore, who had receivers drop six balls last week, should finally get it together with his skill guys today. Navy just 2-5 ATS off a bye week and 3-7 ATS at home against a team with winning road record. The Bearcats' defense should keep them in this game. 

Dolphins/Chargers 4:05: Chargers not thoroughly accepted by the fans of Los Angeles. And it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't fill the 30,000 seat StubHub Center. Chargers on a short week off their MNF loss. Miami, on the other hand, had extra rest because of the hurricane. The Dolphins practiced last week in Oxnard, CA; therefore, they're well acclimated to the west coast and the time change. A concern is the Chargers 0-8 ATS mark vs an opponent with rest and the 1-8 ATS off a SU/ATS division loss in September. The Dolphins have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series including last year's 31-24 win. QB Cutler is not a favorite but Adam Gase worked with him extensively during his best year's in Chicago and should have him ready. He surely has a good supporting cast with RB Ajayi and a talented receiving corps. Defensively, Miami is strong along the line with Suh and sack master DE Wake. Not optimistic about the direction the Chargers are going. And with Gase 4-1 as a dog of less than 6 points, we'll grab the points with the Dolphins.

Baylor/Duke 12:30: Trouble brewing for the Bears after losing to two lightweights to open the season. QB change won't help as the Duke defense continues to impress in the Cutcliffe era. And QB Daniel Jones now emerging as a top caliber ACC signal caller. Blue Devils a strong 5-0 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points against less than .500 opposition. Baylor a poor 1-8 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points vs opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Rhule's new recruits will need time to become battle tested as they take it on the chin again. 

Seahawks/Packers 4:25: Heavy action all over the Packers here. I'm going the opposite direction with the vengeful Seahawks. Pete Carroll a sweet 14-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. Seahawks had this one circled on their calendar ever since getting pasted at Lambeau Field 38-10 last December. Today, the Legion of Boom is healthy with key playmaker S Earl Thomas back along with Sherman, Wagner and Chancellor. And with the addition of Sheldon Richardson (Jets), the Seahawks will be fine up front once again. On the other hand, despite Rawls (ankle) questionable, leaner and meaner Eddie Lacy will get a chance to burrow over his former teammates. We'll look for continued improvement in Seattle's weakness -- O Line. Offensive line coach Tom Cable shuffled the line effectively and they're much improved where they were a year ago. Packers' defense was the league worst against the pass last year and despite the acquisitions, will need time for it to improve. Seattle the call.

East Carolina/West Virginia Noon: West Virginia, who I faded last week, actually played well on both sides of the ball against V Tech. Defensively, the stats look horrible but the Mounties were strong until cramps and attrition took over. Today, no such luck against the Pirates. Pirates are unsettled at QB and Sirk is no Josh Jackson (V Tech). Turnovers and sluggish play doomed East Carolina last week at home against FCS heavyweight James Madison. WV's DC Tony Gibson should come up with another great scheme to stall out the Pirates' offense... And Scottie Montgomery's defense, which slipped 51 YPG last year, is on its way to getting thrashed for the second week in a row. JM hung 614 yards on them last week and WV is even more potent as West Virginia's QB Will Grier showed he's still got game. Grier and the loaded skill personnel that the Mounties possess should have this one over at half time. Pirates struggling on the road under Montgomery at 0-6 ATS, should continue their slide and fall to 1-6 ATS at Morgantown.

South Carolina/NC State 3:00: Like the Wolfpack's senior laden roster that went 8-4 ATS last year including a 41-17 demolition in their bowl game against Vanderbilt. NC State had a top 10 run stop unit last year and they bring back their entire front 7. Sure, South Carolina's young team was competitive last year and will be better but not at the level of the Wolfpack. South Carolina's offense was 120th in total offense last year and do have 10 returning starters on the offensive end including QB Jake Bentley. The Wolfpack, however, has plenty of firepower of their own including utility star Jaylen Samuels and an experienced offensive line. NC State is a strong 23-3 SU/18-5 ATS when they outgain their opponent under head coach Dave Doeren. NC State's program is further along than Muschamp's Gamecocks. NC State the call.

Patriots/Falcons 6:30: At first glance of the opening line, I was a bit surprised; after all, I was thinking New England (-5). I'm going to stand strong by my conviction and stay on New England despite Gronkowski's absence. Yes, I realize Julio Jones and the many other weapons at the disposal of Matt Ryan will be a difficult task, but the best coach in the business in Belichick is the one to have on your side in neutralizing that explosive Falcons' attack. On the flip end, having arguably the greatest QB to stride a Super Bowl playing field on your side is the ultimate comforting feeling. Brady has gotten into rhythm with his cast of receivers and the Patriots' run game is also cooking. Thanks to the Patriots' offensive line coach - Scarnecchia, the Falcons' defense -- which is at times vulnerable, will have its trouble. Scheming, coaching and experience give New England the edge and cover here.

Lions/Cowboys 8:30: After a sluggish season start, Detroit has been a spread darling on a 7-3 ATS run. They have come off two sluggish outings but should do well here. Detroit is a strong 5-1 ATS on MNF and covered 5 of last 6 in this series. Detroit QB Stafford should be able to dissect a vulnerable Cowboys' secondary that has been worked against good QBs with passing games. Detroit has trouble running football but can roll up the passing yards. Detroit a sweet 24-9 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously. Dallas is historically shaky in this season stretch at 0-5 ATS in December. And they're a disappointing 6-13 ATS at home and 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more vs a .500 opponent.

Broncos/Chiefs 8:30: Most are pounding the "under" tonight based on the series history and the defensive prowess of these teams; however, at a closer glance, these teams at Arrowhead combined for 63 (2013), 45 (2014) and 55 points last season. Furthermore, 45-21-3 O/U off a SU loss and 7-3 O/U off a double digit SU loss. And this is the lowest total set at Arrowhead all season. The weather is a non factor with unseasonably warm temperatures, light winds and no precipitation projected. KC is an amazing 10-2 O/U at home when the O/U line is less than 40. With key defensive injuries on both sides of ball, we'll look for a prime time surplus in scoring.

Arkansas State/Central Florida: Not sold on Arkansas State's 7-1 run down the stretch in which was attained against mediocre Sun Belt Conference foes. When the Red Wolves have gone outside of conference, they flopped at 0-6 ATS. On the other hand, UCF, which went winless last season, did well this season under Scott Frost. The former Nebraska QB brought to the Knights' veteran offensive personnel a playbook out of Chip Kelly's offense. Frost served as Kelly's OC in the Mariotta and Vernon Adams years. The Knights have responded well going 8-4 ATS and posses a strong defensive unit with a ball hawking secondary. UCF turned in some strong road wins including an outright at Houston! And with this game practically in UCF's backyard in Orlando, we'll ride the Knights here.

Ravens/Patriots 8:30: Ravens have been competitive in this series at Foxborough to the tune of 4-0-1 ATS. Baltimore is in the hunt for a playoff wildcard and should play with a sense of urgency. Defense is playing very well and should put in a strong performance against Brady (knee) and his limited cast of experienced weaponry with Gronkowski and Amendola on the rack. And TE Bennett dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries. On the other hand, QB Flacco has enjoyed strong performances against NE and he's shaken out of his early season struggles to finally establishing a rhythm with his receivers. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS on Monday Night Football and a sweet 19-9-1 ATS against winning teams. With the dog in this series at 5-1-1 ATS, we'll look for Baltimore to stick around here.

Ohio U/Miami OH: The Redhawks have been competitive the last two years under Martin and have solid mid-major talent with experience. They've faced a tough schedule this season and despite 0-4 SU are 3-1 ATS. The 'Hawk talent is poised to break out here in triple revenge mode. Dog is 3-1-1 ATS in series and MOU is 6-1-1 ATS off SU loss.  Ohio U in trouble spot at 1-8 as as fav after scoring 35+. Miami OH gets first win.

Cowboys/Redskins 1:00: Road team in this series is 4-0 ATS and like the situation here. Skins off Monday game 1-4 ATS and face vengeful Cowboys (lost to Wash last game of year) squad that's 10-1 off SU loss w/ revenge vs

Cardinals/Panthers 6:40: Cardinals weren't convincing in their win last week but that was expected (had GB +7'). And Carson Palmer looked shaky at best in his playoff moment; however, the important thing is that Palmer and the Cardinals finished and advanced. Today, Palmer should settle in and get back to establishing the nice rhythm we saw from him throughout the regular season. The Panthers do have holes in their secondary that can be exploited as Russell Wilson demonstrated in the second half of last week's game with a masterful performance. The Panthers shaky second half of that game gives me reason to believe Arizona can deliver here; after all, Arizona can also atone for last year's 27-16 loss behind a third string QB who guided the offense to a grand total of 88 yards and they were a mere 6 points away from covering the game! Keep in mind Bruce Arians is 12-0 ATS as a dog of less than 4 points. The Cardinals are dangerous here and we'll take them.

Seahawks/Panthers 1:05: We've seen this scenario unfold before where an NFL team suffers a demoralizing regular season defeat only to come back in the playoffs and win/cover; as for Pete Carroll, he's a sweet 11-0 ATS as a dog w/ revenge and I'm riding Seattle. The pressure is put on Carolina as a maiden championship contender in the Cam Newton era. Sure, he is every bit the MVP analysts say he is; however, the Seattle defense is healthy and dangerous this time of year. Moreover, the Seahawks are battle tested after playing in frigid sub zero temps at Minn last week; consequently, today's 40 degree climate in Charlotte will feel like paradise. Sure, Carolina is well rested but keep in mind Carolina's HC Rivera is 1-6 ATS with rest. And let's not underestimate Russell Wilson who is often overlooked among NFL elite. He makes big plays when needed at crucial times -- as exhibited last week at Minnesota. And he has enough surrounding talent to put a dent in the Panthers' defense now that Lynch is added to the mix. Seattle the dangerous dog once again.

Chiefs/Patriots 4:35: Both offenses should have trouble getting generated today in Foxborough. KC will most likely be without their top wideout - Maclin . and surely defensive minded Belichick will have a scheme to limit KC's top target TE Kelce while spying elusive QB Alex Smith. Look for New England to get aggressive schematically with their run stop unit to get KC in third and long repeatedly. On the other hand, New England is thin at RB --deep in their rotation because of injuries -- and ranked 30th in the league in rushing. KC has a ball hawking secondary and will be focusing on Gronk and the return of Edelman (foot) who has been out since November 15.  KC is 1-5 O/U off a SU win of 14+, 1-5 O/U in January, and 2-5 O/U in playoffs. The sleeting conditions at Foxborough with the 12 MPH winds won't help the offenses either. This series is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 meetings and we'll stay Under today.