Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Celtics/Bucks 7:30: Bucks showed the heart of a champion late in Game 5 at Boston. Giannis was his usual All-NBA self, Connaughton put in quality minutes, Portis was clutch, and Holiday stepped up his game big time including his amazing defensive play on Smart. Celtics are formidable foes, but Bucks have a slightly deeper bench despite the loss of Middleton. Boston's Williams III loss hurts depth. Horford doing an amazing job but Giannis young legs really tough to stop down stretch in 4th. Milwaukee finishes. |
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05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Bucks/Celtics 7:00: In this playoff series at Boston, both games did not reach 200 points; as a matter of fact, 5 of the last 7 in this series at Boston went "under". Both coaching staffs are well versed on defense and know their roles despite the lineup changes. "Under' the call. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 213 | 80-110 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Both home games for the Suns in this series went "over". In Dallas, both went "under". We'll go back to the "over" here. Lines-makers adjusted the total down after those two lower scoring games in Dallas. Look for the Suns to turn it up a notch or two tonight. Unlikely Chris Paul will foul out with just 5 points like Game 4. Suns are 11-3 O/U as playoff chalk. Mavs should match the pace. Mavericks 7-2 O/U road and 4-1 O/U as a road dog. "Over" the call. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
76ers/Heat 7:30: In Game 4, Heat couldn't hit the ocean from 3-point land (20%). We'll look for the Heat to be a much better shooting team on their home floor tonight. Heat 7-1 ATS as home chalk while the 76ers struggle as a road dog at 1-4 ATS. And Philadelphia just 1-6-1 ATS at Miami. Miami the call. |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -10 | 98-101 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Warriors 10:00: Major uphill battle for Grizzlies without their playmaker Morant (knee) who averages 27.4 PPG. Warriors just too deep and talented. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1 v. Bucks | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
Boston/Milwaukee 7:30: Celtics have had enough time to learn how to exploit Milwaukee's loss of Middleton. Almost got there in Game 3. Tonight, we'll look for them to close it out. |
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05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Heat/76ers 8:00: 76ers threw a curveball a few hours before Game 3 by clearing Embiid. Heat had not prepared for the dominant big man; consequently, his presence helped ignite an inspired 76ers team. 76ers were fined by the NBA for the slick move. Tonight, Miami will be well prepared for Embiid. As for Miami, Lowry played in Game 3 but was ineffective (0 points). We'll look for a better game from him here as he establishes his rhythm. Look for Spoelstra to push the right buttons tonight. Heat 7-3-1 ATS in this series, 13-6-1 ATS off a SU loss. Miami the call. |
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05-08-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Suns/Mavericks 3:30: Nice move by the Mavericks' Jason Kidd in Game 3 by putting Reggie Bullock on Chris Paul. Bullock made Paul uncomfortable by forcing the future Hall of Famer to be off his game with uncharacteristic turnovers and difficult shots. And offensively on Friday, Brunson stepped up his game to help Doncic. Still need Dinwiddie to reestablish his rhythm and Dallas could be trouble. Dallas 20-8-1 ATS on 1 day rest and 4-1 ATS as a home dog. Suns just 3-7 ATS on 1 day rest and on Sundays. Take Mavericks. |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Memphis/Golden State 8:30: Warriors coming off one of their worst shooting performances in the playoffs since 1991. We'll look for them to bounce back strong at home here. Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks (suspended). He averages 18.4 PPG and plays a big supporting role for Morant. Warriors should run away with this one. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
05-06-22 | Heat -3 v. 76ers | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Mavericks have been a strong road team against winning home teams for a long stretch. They're 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 road tilts vs a team with a home winning % above .600. And they're 36-15 ATS off a SU loss. Doncic, like always, is on his game. He'll need Brunson and Dinwiddie to give him offensive support. We'll bet on that to happen. Phoenix just 3-7-1 ATS on 1 day rest. Paul, after back-to-back strong games, overdue to gas out tonight. Edge to Dallas. |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat -8 | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
76ers/Heat 7:30: As I mentioned in my Monday write up, Embiid is a huge part of what the 76ers have been doing on both sides of the floor virtually all season. Take him away, and the immense pressure is put on Harden to be the offensive force which he struggles with. Moreover, as stated before, DeAndre Jordan not a good option, Reed not bad and Bassey so, so. That won't cut it vs a deep Miami team as Adebayo continues to dominate. Miami the call. |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Mavericks have been a ridiculously good road team vs home teams with a winning % above .600 at 42-16-1 ATS. They've covered 10 of their last 14 road tilts. Dallas covered both games at Phoenix for this season. Important to note that the Mavericks were getting 8.5 points in those games; however, that was before Porzingis was shipped to Washington in exchange for Dinwiddie and Bertans. Mavericks are now a better team. Bertans turns in good minutes defensively and was even a key scoring component in Game 3 vs Utah dropping 15 points while Doncic (calf) was out. Dinwiddie has been a huge addition as another scoring threat with Doncic. Suns' Booker not fully 100% with that lingering hamstring injury. We'll look for Dallas to stay competitive here. |
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05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat -7.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
76ers/Heat 7:30: Heat's Butler (knee) good to go along with Herro and Morris who each recovered from non-covid related illnesses. Lowry (hamstring) won't be ready, but the Heat have enough backcourt depth to fill the void. As for the 76ers, Embiid's (orbital bone) loss at this stage of the playoffs is a big one. He's been an integral part of getting Philadelphia to this playoff spot. Reed is a good hustle guy and a backup but not the big-time scorer of Embiid. And Jordan or Bassey are not good options. Heat have been solid as a favorite at 10-2 and we'll look for them to be on their game tonight. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -2 v. Grizzlies | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Warriors/Grizzlies 3:30: Memphis got the best of the Warriors in this series in the Morant era; however, the Thompson, Curry and Green didn't get any time on the floor together for any length of time in the series. Moreover, Poole had not come into his own yet. Now the Warriors are in a great rhythm with everyone healthy and they play well on extended rest at 6-1-1 ATS. And Morant not hitting shots. Just 1 of 10 in last 11 from 3-point range. That was against the soft defense of Minnesota. Warriors are in the top tier of the NBA defensively. We'll grab Golden State in Game 1. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Bucks/Celtics 1:00: Celtics a bit more rested (3+ days) but they operate well on extended rest days at 3-1-1 ATS. They also perform well as a favorite (25-11-1 ATS) and sport a sweet 9-1 ATS run in this series. Boston proved why they're the #1 defense in the NBA by consistently making stops or taking away the key offensive player as they did so well against Durant. Giannis is a beast, but Celtics have found ways of stopping key players. Horford and Williams have each stepped up their game as well. And without Middleton (MCL), Milwaukee could struggle here. They've been sluggish in Game 1's, just 1-4 ATS on 3+ days rest, and just 3-8 ATS as a road dog. Celtics the call. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 9:05: I like this one to go to Game 7. Wolves were clearly in Game 5 at Memphis. Once again, a significant foul line disparity favoring the Grizzlies 39 to 24 trips to the foul line. And Minnesota was in control of that game - outshooting them 45%/42% Floor/3 point to Memphis' 41%/25%. KAT and Edwards played large. Areas Minnesota needs to clean up on is allowing offensive rebounds and turnovers which helped do them in Tuesday. Minnesota has that strong home floor, loud home crowd, and with the way they're shooting, should force a Game 7. Minnesota 15-7-1 ATS off a SU loss and we'll grab them here. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs +1 v. Jazz | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Mavs/Jazz 10:00: Jazz get good news that Donovan Mitchell (hamstring) will play but it won't matter. Mavs have taken control of this series, Doncic is back in high performance form, and they're locking down Utah, especially from the perimeter. Jazz shot a horrendous 3 of 30 from the perimeter in Game 5, resulting in a 102-77 blowout loss. Mavs a super 41-6-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Dallas is now 4-0 ATS in Utah. Mavericks learned their lesson last season when up on the Clippers 3-2 only to lose Game 6 at home and Game 7 on road. Stay on Dallas. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +1.5 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
76ers/Raptors 7:00: Raptors gaining momentum while the pressure builds for Philadelphia. Here we go again for Doc Rivers inability to close out playoff series. His excuses are rolling and he's falling back on Embiid's torn ligament in his right thumb. Raptors' Nurse, on the other hand, masterful in pitting his long, athletic guys on Philadelphia. Toronto most likely won't have Van Fleet (hip) but Barnes and Trent Jr. have stepped up with Anuoby and Achiewa help Siakam control the boards; as a matter of fact, there was a 56-36 edge in points in the paint for Toronto in Game 5. Embiid clearly not himself and Harden doesn't have the gas to carry the team. Toronto 5-1 ATS as a home dog and 11-4 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Sixers just 5-15 ATS last 20 in Toronto. We'll look for a Game 7. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Denver/Golden State 10:00: Denver's Jokic finally got significant help in Game 4 as Morris and Gordon stepped up. Gordon was also instrumental on shutting down Golden State's Poole. Tonight, look for the Warriors to play much better on their home floor. Curry should get the start tonight. And Green should turn his game up a few notches. Nuggets just 2-7-1 ATS at Golden State. Warriors 5-0 ATS last 5 at home and should close it out with authority. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -6 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Suns 10:00: Not to take anything away from the Pelicans, for I had them Sunday, the free throw disparity was great. Pelicans' 42-15 advantage at the free throw line made it tough on Phoenix. New Orleans has young and energetic players like Herbert Jones and Alvarado off the bench that play relentless defense. Phoenix experience should come into play here. Paul should turn up his game a notch. He needs Ayton and Crowder to sustain their energy for the duration. And without Booker, Bridges and Payne have to play better. Suns the call. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6 | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 7:30: Quite a free throw disparity in Game 4 at Minnesota where the Wolves were at the charity stripe 40 times to the Grizzlies' 25. Morant wasn't getting the usual calls from the refs when he attacked the rim. Tonight, we'll look for different outcome. T-Wolves run cold after strong games as their 1-6 ATS mark off a win and 1-4 ATS as a playoff dog. Grizzlies 11-3 ATS off a SU loss should find their game. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | 94-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Hawks/Heat 7:00: Heat throwing various lineups at Atlanta and it's working. Spoelstra utilizing his bench great and pestering Young relentlessly. Heat has been a strong home favorite at 40-19 ATS and I'm on them again. |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -2.5 | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Jazz/Mavericks 9:30: Mavericks were 40 seconds away from going up in the series 3 games to 1. Mavericks Doncic did well Saturday but Dinwiddie, who really stepped up in his absence, was out of rhythm with his minutes cut significantly short. Mavericks had a day to figure it out and should deliver. They've been a good defensive team all season (#2 in NBA) and sport a 10-2 ATS mark after allowing 100+ points. Dallas has won 8 of last 9 in this series and should deliver on this floor. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets -1 | 116-112 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
Celtics/Nets 7:00: All pressure on Durant and Irving after their mediocre performance in Game 3. Durant is having a horrible series and everyone and their brother is on his case. Celtics are getting extra physical with him shuttling in multiple bodies on him. Brooklyn needs to make an effective adjustment for someone else like Curry, Claxton, Dragic, Mills need to step up. We'll look for that to happen as Nets stay alive. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Suns/Pelicans 9:30: Chris Paul did an amazing job in Games 1 and 3 putting the team on his shoulder and carrying them to victory. Only so much left in his tank though. And there is that glaring void at times without Booker (hamstring). New Orleans is a very good young team and veteran McCollum makes them dangerous. Pelicans 6-1 ATS off a SU loss. We'll grab New Orleans. |
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04-24-22 | Heat -125 v. Hawks | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Heat/Hawks 7:00: In Game 3, Lowry went down with a hamstring injury and Miami was unable to close out down the stretch. However, Strus doing a decent job at the 1 spot and Vincent could get increasing time if Lowry is unable to go. Need Butler to show up like he did in Game 2 and Duncan to show up like he did in Game 1. And if Herro turns up his game, I think he will, Heat should deliver today. Hawks just 5-15 ATS off a SU win and just 2-5 ATS in this series. Spoelstra does a nice job with adjustments, and we'll look for him to make the right moves with his more talented lineup. We'll grab the Heat on the money line. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors -4 v. Nuggets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Warriors/Nuggets 3:30: Nuggets struggling to find support for Jokic. Without Murray and Porter Jr., Denver's supporting cast limited. On the other hand, with the emergence of Poole, and the recovery of Thompson, and now Curry back in the fold, Denver's severely stressed as Jokic is run ragged and then has to bang with solid post defender Green. Denver struggling at home at 6-18 ATS and 0-5 ATS as home dog. Warriors should close it out. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves | 118-119 | Loss | -111 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 10:00: Grizzlies have taken control of this series after deflating the Wolves in Game 3. Grizzlies asserted themselves defensively in their 21-0 run in second half. There was no answer by Minnesota. Grizzlies have been tough defensively virtually all season while the Wolves were in the bottom tier defensively. KAT has been a non-factor in the two losses, and we'll look for his struggles to continue. Morant and company now have the confidence to keep the winning momentum. Grizzlies 8-1 ATS on Saturdays and 21-6 ATS on 1 day of rest. They're 13-6 ATS as road chalk and 6-2 ATS at Minnesota. Young Wolves drop off again tonight. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs +6 v. Jazz | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Jazz 4:30: Jazz haven't found an answer to stop Brunson and today, Mavericks should have Doncic get some floor work. Of course, Utah's Donovan Mitchell always a bet to go off. And Jazz operating best when Gobert is on the bench. Dallas has the #1 defense in the NBA and it's giving Utah trouble. Mavericks now 7-1 ATS in this series. We'll stay on them here. |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +3.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
76ers/Raptors 2:00: Raptors on the brink of elimination but still got fight in them. Scottie Barnes (ankle) should be back today to lend the needed hand. On the other hand, Embiid bothered by possible ligament damage in right thumb; consequently, should be problematic enough to alter shots and allow Toronto to stay in this one. Raptors 4-1 ATS as a home dog and 5-0 ATS on 2 days of rest. Toronto the call. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Suns/Pelicans 9:30: Suns got a bad break with Booker (hamstring) going down. Monty Williams not the greatest strategist to fill his void schematically; fortunately, Chris Paul is ready and able. He had a monster game in Game 1 and should be back up to speed when Phoenix needs him most. He does have a solid supporting cast which is more than able to step up. Ayton, Bridges, Crowder will be banging, and we'll look for journeyman -Shamet to help fill some of the void for Booker. Suns are 8-6 SU without Booker. Phoenix 5-1 ATS at New Orleans. Suns the call. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Bucks/Bulls 8:30: Bucks have had tremendous success in Chicago at 11-1 ATS; however, without Middleton (knee), still value exists with the Bulls considering the line shift. Middleton is a huge part of taking pressure off Giannis; after all, Middleton averaged 20 PPG during the regular season and surely proved his worth in the playoffs over the last two seasons. Holiday, Portis Jr. and Lopez will have to step up but it's still a tall task. Milwaukee was just 7-9 SU without Middleton during regular season. Chicago is trouble. Donovan has Chicago well prepared and playing confident. DeRozan is picking up where he left off during the regular season; Vucevic and Lavine are offering good support. And like the energy Caruso and Thompson bring to the floor. Chicago the call. |
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04-22-22 | Heat -1 v. Hawks | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Heat/Hawks 7:00: Going to stay on the Heat here. Capela's knee injury really hurt the interior presence of Atlanta. Miami is finding ease in driving to the basket because of his absence. And Atlanta's bench doesn't provide the physical presence to battle down low. Someone on Miami has been stepping up repeatedly. If not Lowry, Herro, Robinson, there was Butler dropping 45 on Tuesday. Atlanta having difficultly navigating late vs the reenergized defense of Miami. Heat 4-0 ATS on the road vs teams with teams with home records greater than .600. Hawks 1-5 ATS as a playoff dog. Heat the call. |
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04-21-22 | Mavs +7 v. Jazz | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Jazz 9:00: Mavericks' Brunson stepped up his game Monday dropping 41 on the Jazz. Will need him and Dinwiddie to play great tonight too. Most likely, Doncic will sit out this one to not aggravate his calf. Surely an added bonus if he goes but I doubt it. Nevertheless, we'll stay on the Mavericks. Jazz have been horrible favorites recently at 3-7-1 ATS for their last 11 in that role. And 23-47-4 ATS off a SU loss. Dallas the call. |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2 | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 7:30: Wolves got down in Game 2 and relented. Tonight, they should be able to redeem themselves on their strong home floor. KAT, Russell and Edwards should step up their game here; after all, Wolves are 14-6-1 ATS off a SU loss, and 9-3 ATS off a SU loss of 12+. T-Wolves deliver. |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -9.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
Bulls/Bucks 9:30: In Game 1, Bucks jumped all over the Bulls early to a double-digit lead but took their foot off the gas pedal; consequently, the well-disciplined Bulls extended their defense and got in rhythm offensively as Vucevic, DeRozan and Lavine played well up until late. Tonight, the more talented Bucks should shift it into overdrive and shake loose with the right adjustments. Bucks the call. |
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04-20-22 | Nets +4 v. Celtics | 107-114 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
Nets/Celtics 7:00: In Game 1, Nets' Durant had a poor game by his standard - going 9 of 24 from the field and just 1 of 5 from 3-point range; fortunately, Irving kept them in the game dropping 39. Great players rarely have back-to-back poor performances in the playoffs; consequently, we'll look for Durant to heat up the net tonight. Dragic should see more action tonight; after all, he came off the bench and heated up with 14. Him or Seth Curry need to lend more help. Nets do good work as a road dog at 6-2-1 ATS. Celtics a shaky 2-5 ATS as a playoff favorite. Nets the call. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Phoenix 10:00: Pelicans have a solid young team that competes. They rallied back in Game 1 before Chris Paul went off. Pelicans' McCollum is a big time player who is capable of keeping them in games. He does have a pretty good supporting cast including Ingram and Jonas. And Nance Jr. has been a big energy guy off the bench. Pelicans 13-6 ATS in last 19 road games and 5-1 ATS off a loss. Suns could be a bit sluggish here as they're 1-5 ATS on 1 day rest. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 8:30: In Game 1, Grizzlies got nothing out of Adams as he was abused by Towns on both ends of the floor. I would assume Jaren Jackson would step into the 5 spot to give more resistance defensively and add some points on the other end of the floor. Morant and company should step up here; after all, they're 10-3 ATS off a SU loss and control a 24-9 ATS mark in this series at home. T-Wolves, 3-8 ATS as a road dog, should struggle in this spot. |
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04-19-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Atlanta/Miami 7:30: Miami shooting near 50% from 3-point range in this series this season including playoffs. Sunday, Duncan Robinson lit it up from trey-land as the Heat shot 47% from the perimeter. Defensively, the Heat took Young out of his game (1 of 12). Atlanta can hang on the road with sub-par to good teams but struggle vs the elite. Hawks now 6-20 ATS as a road dog. Hawks now 1-6 ATS in Miami. And Atlanta doesn't have the interior depth to go the duration without Capela (knee). Heat again. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Warriors 10:00: I had Golden State in Game 1, mentioning the formidable lineup of Curry, Thompson, Green, Poole and Wiggins all on the floor together. Poole went off in Game 1 and that doesn't bode well in this series for the Nuggets which don't have the supporting cast set yet for Jokic. Nevertheless, Denver's been tough off double-digit losses this season at 5-1 ATS. And they even went into Golden State on February 16th against the very lineup they faced Saturday and won outright as a 6-point dog. Of course, the Warriors are still working Curry back from injury and he'll eventually heat up. But Denver is a resilient team and will go down swinging. We'll grab the points. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah/Dallas 8:30: In Game 1, Dallas, without Doncic, got out-boarded, shot a measly 38% from the floor, just 9 of 32 from 3-point range, and a poor 26 of 34 from the foul line and was a point away from a cover. Tonight, again Doncic will not play. We have good value with the Mavericks. They're 35-16 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 of last 5 as a home dog. Utah, on the other hand, has trouble closing on the road and they're just 3-9 ATS as road chalk. We'll grab the points. |
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04-18-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Raptors/76ers 7:30: 76ers' Maxey went off for a season high and sank Toronto. Embiid and Harden are clearly more dangerous and held in check. Toronto won't panic and Nurse will make the right adjustments. Toronto sports a 4-1 ATS mark in this series over its last 5. They're 5-2 ATS off a loss of 10+ and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 dog roles. Toronto the call. |
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04-17-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -10 | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Bulls/Bucks 6:30: Bulls struggling to get healthy and limited in weaponry to handle the star power Milwaukee brings to the floor. LaVine still nursing knee injuries and DeRozan has limited support. On the other hand, Milwaukee's Lopez is now healthy and George Hill should be a go off the bench to lend hand to a potent lineup of Giannis, Middleton, Holiday and Portis. Chicago hasn't played the dog role well at 7-21 ATS. We'll roll with Milwaukee in Game 1. |
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04-17-22 | Nets +4.5 v. Celtics | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Nets/Celtics 3:30: Boston got the best of this series this season including at Brooklyn where Irving was unable to play due to not being vaccinated. Today, he's back in the fray. He and Durant should utilize their playoff experience and keep this competitive. Nets are 5-2 ATS as a road dog and 5-2 ATS on 3 days rest. Celtics just 1-5 ATS in Conference Quarterfinal action. Take the points. |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Hawks/Heat 1:00: Hawks on a nice run and I had them in their last 2 games; however, have to fade them here. Hawks are playing 3rd game in last 5 days and Young only has so much juice in them. Spoelstra has options with his fresh legged lineup. He'll probably shadow young with Lowry to start while shuttling fresh bodies in throughout. Hawks won't have Capela (knee) who's been outstanding on the boards and a solid inside presence on both sides of the floor. Hawks, will however, probably have John Collins (finger) back to help fill void. But Heat resemble the playoff team of 2020 than last year's that was eliminated in first round. The additions of Lowry and Martin have given a solid boost to the team to aid Butler. And the resurgence of Herro makes a big difference. Miami shot 51% from 3 point range against Atlanta in 4 games this season as they got the best of Atlanta in the season series. We'll give Game 1 to the Heat here. |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6 | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Warriors 8:30: Warriors should have their Big 3 on the floor together tonight. Curry is due back to add to an already dangerous roster. Denver, with Jokic as the leader of virtually every statistical category on the team, should be overwhelmed without his teammate - Murray (ACL) still in recovery. And now that Klay Thompson has gotten back in rhythm, he alongside Poole, Wiggins and Green are just too many weapons for Denver to contain for the duration. Nuggets just 3-9 ATS in this series and 1-4 ATS as a playoff dog. We'll look for the Warriors to deliver tonight. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
Raptors/76ers 6:00: Clearly the 76ers are the more talented team but Toronto HC Nurse does a great job in adjustments to stay in games. Raptors covered all 4 of the games in this season series and we'll look for them to stay in this one. Nurse limited and rested players against New York in their final game. Siakam is well rested and should get good support from Achiuwa and Trent Jr, while Van Fleet (knee) is set to go off. Raptors 16-5 ATS off a SU loss including 5-1 ATS off SU loss of 10+. Nurse a sweet 5-1 ATS in Conference Quarterfinals, and he's 7-2-1 ATS as a playoff dog. Grab the points. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 3:30: Wolves turned in a strong performance vs the Clippers to get here. While Memphis is the better team, Wolves pose matchup problems for Memphis. In four games this season, Minnesota played them tough. Even though the series was split, the Wolves outscored Memphis 483-450 and took Memphis to OT in Memphis before the Grizzlies dispatched them. Top Grizzlies' gun - Morant did average 20 PPG in series but his just 3 of 20 from downtown. Wolves Russell was consistently strong in this series, Him and Edwards and teammates lit up the net from trey-land. Wolves sport a 4-0 ATS mark on 3+ days rest and 5-0 ATS on Saturdays. We'll look for them to stick around here. |
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04-16-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5 | 99-93 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Jazz/Mavericks 1:00: Doncic (calf) is the big question mark at this time. He's most likely out. Nevertheless, we'll stay on the home team. Dallas has won 5 of their last 6 without Doncic. The Mavericks boast a top tier defense and the late season pick up of Dinwiddie added additional offense to compliment Doncic and Brunson. Utah has had their share of post-season flops and sport a money burning 9-26 ATS mark on the road vs teams above .500. Dallas has covered 4 straight in this series. We'll take the points. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -3.5 | 105-101 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Clippers 10:05: Clippers had the T-Wolves by gonads - up 10 with 8:54 remaining and failed to close. Anthony-Towns went out and the Clippers failed to adjust as Wolves went on a major run to close it out. With a few days rest, look for playoff savvy Clippers' HC Lue to make the right calls tonight. Pelicans have some great young talent and that bodes well for the near future, but not ready to close tonight. Pelicans have their flaws - lower tier defending the 3 pointer and lower tier shooting the 3. Clippers, however, are a top tier 3 point shooting team and can lock down on the defensive end. Need Reggie Jackson, who is usually strong in post-season, to match Paul George's big time game. I think he will. Clippers the call. |
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04-15-22 | Hawks -2 v. Cavs | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 42 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawks/Cavaliers 7:35: Cleveland is not an easy out, especially at home where they're 4-1 ATS against Atlanta; moreover, All-Star Jarrett Allen (finger) is likely to play. However, Hawks' HC McMillan a solid playoff coach and will tighten the bolts on the Cavaliers' offense here. Young has had some big games vs Cleveland this season at 32.5 PPG/9 APG. Hawks playing unselfish ball offensively, on a good run and can cover as a favorite (6-0 ATS) and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road favorite roles. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Spurs/Pelicans 9:30: Pelicans adjusted well without Zion Williamson (leading scorer last season). After losing 12 of their first 13 games, they produced a winning record to get here. Surely CJ McCollum pick up from Portland in February helped tremendously. McCollum, Jonas and Ingram present a solid core to reckon with; however, like the Spurs strong finish (7-0 ATS) down the stretch. Popovich, the winningest NBA coach, is well versed in the playoffs and we'll give the Spurs the edge. Now that Dejounte Murray is back in the fray, Spurs should be able to deliver here. |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks -5 | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Hornets/Hawks 7:00: Hawks had a nice run in the playoffs behind McMillan last year and I'm sitting on the Hawks tonight. Charlotte can match points but come crunch time, they're soft defensively. McMillan's Hawks are more prepared for these clutch moments and more disciplined defensively. Hawks 6-0 ATS as a favorite and 12-5 ATS as home chalk. Atlanta the call. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Clippers/T-Wolves 9:30: Clippers finished strong down the stretch on a 5-0 / 4-1 ATS run. Clippers have solid team chemistry and a stable bench under playoff strong HC Lue. And now that Paul George and Norman Powell (foot) are healthy, they're dangerous. And they're equipped with a better defense than their counterpart. Sure, T-Wolves can light up the net at home (#1 offense in NBA), but question big game ability. Clippers equipped with big-game players including Reggie Jackson, George. And Zubac usually steps up his game in post-season. We'll grab the Clippers to deliver in this play-in. |
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04-12-22 | Cavs +8.5 v. Nets | 108-115 | Win | 105 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Cavs/Nets 7:00: We'll look for Cleveland to avenge Friday's 118-107 loss in Brooklyn. As of now, Jarrett Allen (finger) a no go. He did practice at full throttle with team Monday, however. The good news for the Cavaliers is that their backcourt is healthy and deep. Garland and LeVert can fire up the net and experienced post-season PG Rondo is available if needed. Also Mobley is a force down low. Nets are also healthy. They've been a horrible home favorite at 3-23 ATS but with Irving now available for home games, that could change. However, 8' points is a bit over adjusted to a scrappy Cleveland team. Winner advance to the first round vs #2 seed Boston next week while the loser plays Friday vs the winner of 9-10 game between Atlanta/Charlotte. Take Cleveland to cover. |
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04-09-22 | Kings +11.5 v. Clippers | 98-117 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Kings/Clippers 9:40: Kings got slaughtered in their last two games but have a solid chance to cover here. They've won 4 of their last 5 in Los Angeles and are 7-0 ATS on Saturday; moreover, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, and 23-7 ATS on 3 or more days rest. Clippers, 3-7 ATS slide, 2-5 ATS on Saturday, and 7-20 ATS on 2 days rest, have locked in the #8 seed and are looking at Tuesday's matchup vs Minnesota to secure the 7 seed to take on Memphis in opening round. Should they lose that, they'll have another chance by taking on either San Antonio or New Orleans on Friday with winner taking on the Suns in the opening round. Good chance, limited playing time for Paul George and key starters. As for Sacramento, young guns playing for jobs next season and most likely will bring their "A" game. Kings the call. |
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04-07-22 | Spurs +9 v. Wolves | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Spurs/Wolves 8:10: These teams are going in the opposite direction down the stretch. T-Wolves have lost 5 of their last 8 while the Spurs are on a 7-1 SU/ATS run. T-Wolves really struggling defensively - giving up 131 PPG over their last 5 games. Spurs running smooth offense despite Murray's absence. And they could get him back tonight. Spurs won the play-in-game spot on Tuesday and can still beat out New Orleans for a play-in home game, so incentive is there. As for Minnesota, they're guaranteed no worse than 7th place. They'll need to win out and get help with Denver dropping their last 2 to attain 6th. Wolves have controlled this series and sport a 7-0 ATS run vs Spurs. Spurs are playing their best ball, however, and overdue to grab the money here. Take the points. |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks +5 | 110-98 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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04-05-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Spurs/Nuggets 9:00: Spurs in the driver seat in quest to make the play-in game. They're controlling the #10 seed and two games ahead of the Lakers. They're on a 6-1 SU/ATS run and won 4 straight on the road. They've historically done well in Denver at 19-9 ATS including 2-0 ATS in their last 2 visits. Meanwhile, Denver in a good position in the playoff standings with some wiggle room. Jokic is clearly carrying the team on his back while Murray (knee) and Porter Jr. (back) are near ready to compete again in time for playoffs. Nuggets have recently been a poor favorite (4-9 ATS) and just 1-7 ATS at home in their last 8 in Denver. We'll look for the hungry Spurs to stay competitive here. |
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04-03-22 | Wolves -12 v. Rockets | 139-132 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Wolves/Rockets 7:10: T-Wolves have recently been a good road favorite (4-1 ATS); moreover, they usually dispatch the low-level teams on the road as exhibited by their 8-1 ATS mark as a traveler vs home teams with a win % less than .400. Wolves also play well on Sunday at 16-5 ATS. Rockets, on the other hand, playing out the season and not responding favorably off SU losses (12-25 ATS). They're also a loser on Sundays at 6-14 ATS. Rockets have some shooters in Green and Porter Jr., but defensively at the bottom tier of NBA allowing 117.8 PPG. Wolves have won 5 of the last 6 in this series ATS. We'll lay the wood. |
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04-01-22 | Mavs -8.5 v. Wizards | 103-135 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Wizards 7:10: We'll lay the wood with a Dallas team fighting for home court advantage in the playoffs; meanwhile, the Wizards have nothing to play for by virtue of Atlanta beating Cleveland last night - thus eliminating them from playoffs. Wizards not a good Friday team at 1-6 ATS. And Dallas, which lost to Washington in its only meeting back on November 27th, playing very well now. The defensively strong Mavericks have recently stepped up their game offensively. Doncic getting good offensive support from Brunson and Finney-Smith. Take Dallas. |
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03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks in dire need of wins just to make a play-in-game. As of now, they're 4.5 games behind 10th place Atlanta. They did win three straight and actually play well unrested (5-2 ATS). They're catching Chicago in a bad stretch (2-5 SU/ATS). They did win 2 of 3 in this series this season; however, NY controls a 4-1 ATS mark at MSG vs Chicago. Knicks have covered 8 of their last 10 as a dog and play well on Mondays (17-5 ATS). We'll roll with NY. |
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03-23-22 | Suns v. Wolves +1.5 | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Suns/Wolves 8:10: T-Wolves in good position to seek double same-season revenge tonight. They're coming off a controversial two-point loss to Dallas on Monday night; considering that, they've been playing lights out on a 10-2 run. And they're 20-8-1 ATS at home. The #1 offense in the NBA led by Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards should be able to outscore the Suns on this floor. Suns' Chris Paul, who is out with a broken thumb, came up big with 21 points in both wins against Minnesota this season. His backup - Shamet, who is the best PG to hold the fort down until Paul returns, is still not the facilitator Paul is. Wolves are 12-3 ATS off a SU loss and we'll look for them to deliver here. |
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03-21-22 | Heat v. 76ers | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami/76ers 7:10: At first glance, Miami the call; after all, Miami 7-0-1 ATS on the road run and coming off 2 straight wins. A closer look, however, reveals a host of wins as a favorite over subpar teams. March 5th, the Heat on their home floor blew out the 76ers 99-82. Harden was a scratch for that game. 76ers coming off a loss to Toronto yesterday and, although playing unrested, are at full throttle. For Miami, Butler dealing with an ankle, Martin, Vincent and Oladipo out. We'll look for the 76ers to respond off their loss yesterday with sweet revenge tonight. |
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03-14-22 | Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Bucks/Jazz 10:10: Jazz have won nine straight games at home and should remain up for this one. The incumbent champs coming into Utah off a loss at Golden State on Saturday. They should have Lopez (back) and Hill (neck) back on the floor. Lopez hasn't played since late October and surely the high altitude of Utah will sorely test his conditioning. Sure, Utah's big - Gobert is day to day with a foot injury; however, Whiteside turning in quality minutes during his absence. Jazz had Conley rest Saturday but will be back tonight. Clarkson, who dropped 45 on Sacramento, surely stepped up in his absence. And a healthy Mitchell is always dangerous to opponents. Bucks have not done well in Utah at 4-17. And the Jazz have covered 5 straight in this series. We'll look for the 6th to be a charm. |
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03-07-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
Jazz/Mavericks 8:40: Dallas should have Doncic (toe) back for this one. He sat out Saturday vs Sacramento. Fortunately, the Mavericks snuck by. And Dinwiddie, who was a huge pickup from Washington recently, has been nothing short of outstanding since coming over. Saturday, Dinwiddie dropped 36 on Sacramento before Finney-Smith sealed the win with a last second 3 pointer. Dallas covered 3 straight in this series including February 25th - 114-109 SU loss but cover (+6') at Utah. Utah has their own concerns. They're playing in their 4th game this month - all on road. They may be road weary since their last home game was that February 25th win over Dallas. Jazz has Conley struggling with a knee injury too. More pressure on Bogdanovic and Mitchell to perform. Jazz, off win at OKC yesterday, just 1-4 ATS unrested, 2-8-1 ATS as a road dog, and 3-8-1 ATS in Dallas. We'll grab the Mavericks. |
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03-01-22 | Mavs -5 v. Lakers | 109-104 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Wolves v. Cavs +1.5 | 127-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
T-Wolves/Cavaliers 7:10: Cavaliers on an 8-0 SU home run and we're staying on Cleveland. Sure, they'll be without Garland, Levert and Rondo but Cavaliers manufacturing points through their stifling defense ranked #1 in the NBA. G Okoro is a major disruptive force and part of backcourt that has great offensive support from Mobley, Jarrett Allen and a heating up F Markkanen. T-Wolves Russell, Edwards and Towns don't face this kind of defensive pressure from other NBA teams. They'll have trouble here. T-Wolves just 2-5 after a loss of more than 10+ at home and lost 9 of their last 12 as a traveler. Cavaliers the call. |
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02-27-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Warriors 7:40: Heavy action on the Warriors after their decisive win Thursday at Portland. However, Warriors have been consistently sluggish off big wins going just 3-7-1 ATS after wins of over 10+; moreover, have failed to cover in their last 5 as home chalk. Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off another strong road effort with the cover at Utah. Mavericks on a 7-1 ATS run, 9-1 ATS off a SU loss and covered their last 4 dog roles. Dallas defense continues to be strong under HC Kidd, and bolstered their bench scoring picking up Dinwiddie and Bertans who already contributed well on Friday. Dallas has done a good job stalling out Curry the last 2 meetings and we'll ride them here. Mavericks 9-3 ATS last 12 in this series and 5-1 ATS at Golden State. Take the points. |
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02-25-22 | Heat -4.5 v. Knicks | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 244.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 10:10: Two underachievers going at it on their home floor. Lakers will be designated home team and the crowd is usually partial to the Lakers at The Staples Center. Clippers on an 0-5 ATS/1-4 SU slide but they do get Paul George back tonight. The Lakers, on a 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS run, will have LeBron James back as he cleared Covid19 protocol and that will help ignite the loaded talent roster of the Lakers. They've lost three straight in this series and tonight is the optimum time to get up another game in the standings on the Clippers and re-establish their presence as a serious contender in the Western Conference Pacific. We'll take a bucket with the Lakers. |
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12-02-21 | Bucks v. Raptors +5 | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Bucks/Raptors 7:40: Red hot Bucks won its 8th straight game last night in a 127-125 thriller at home vs Charlotte. Following that emotional win, the Bucks have to travel to Toronto unrested to face a pissed off Toronto team that's lost 3 straight and sports a poor home floor mark of 1-9 ATS. Toronto, however, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark off 3 straight losses outgunning their opponent by an average of 13 PPG in that situation. Toronto has held their own in this series at 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings. And the Bucks sport a disappointing 1-5 ATS unrested. Sure, Toronto has its share of injuries but the Bucks are thin inside without Lopez (out). We'll look for Van Fleet and Siakam to lead a big effort here in Toronto. Take Toronto. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks have showed resilience off losses at 5-2 ATS and we'll grab them here. They won in Atlanta and then had a solid cover (SU loss) in Brooklyn led by Alec Burks. Burks took over the starting PG duties in place of Kemba Walker as announced Monday by Thibodeaux. Too early to tell if it's the right decision but NY has a pretty deep bench of playmakers including former Bull - Derrick Rose. Randle needs to continue to elevate his game like he did on November 21st (34 points) in the Knicks loss to successfully counter Vucevic. Bulls coming off big win over Charlotte on the 29th but kind of choppy off SU wins as of late at 1-3 ATS. Bulls are a good road favorite but 1-4 ATS on 2 days rest and 0-4 ATS at MSG. We'll take NY and the bucket. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 58 m | Show | |
Suns/Bucks 9:05: With the Suns' backs against the wall in a win or go home game, we'll look for Phoenix to deliver here. Suns 14-6 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 of last 5 games in Milwaukee. Giannis effort incredible down stretches and Phoenix will have to surely counter that. Suns shot the lights out in Game 5 yet still came up short despite a lackluster effort at the foul line for Milwaukee (53%). Phoenix knows what's at stake and the veteran presence of Chris Paul and Jae Crowder should support Booker well. Suns will need to step up defensive game and Ayton will have to show up strong. We'll bet on it. Suns the call. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | 123-119 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns clearly in Game 4 until the final moments when Giannis came up with the big block on Ayton. Booker, after a sluggish Game 3, played outstanding in Game 4 but Paul was sluggish and the rest of the Suns didn't assert themselves enough to close out a cover; however, back at their venue where they're 17-5 ATS vs teams above .500, we'll look for the urgency to come back for Phoenix. Phoenix the call. |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Suns/Bucks 8:05: Bucks out of their element at Phoenix. In Game 1 bricked free throws to the tune of 56% and failed to execute down the stretch. Game 2 shot a ridiculous 9 or 31 from 3 point land instead of attacking the rim where they had a degree of success. In Milwaukee, we'll look for their game to be more fluid. Giannis (62 combined points in Game 1 and 2) is showing no residual effects of his knee injury. Middleton and Holiday should now feed off Giannis and a more aggressive Lopez who is overdue to step up. Lay the buckets. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns worked Milwaukee on Monday despite little output offensively from veteran Jae Crowder (1 point) and Booker going 1 of 8 from perimeter. Paul came up large while Ayton won the battle of the big men down low with Lopez as the Suns got to the free throw line and delivered (96%). Giannis looked good but his mates were tentative on whether or not to shoot with him in the game. Milwaukee will surely be stepping up their intensity as they've done throughout playoffs off a loss; however, Suns have much room for improvement and I see them upping their game level as well. We'll grab Phoenix again in this spot. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks/Suns 9:05: Suns have covered 6 of last 7 in this series. Suns achieved narrow one point victories both games vs Milwaukee this year. Giannis turned in massive 33 and 47 point showings, respectively. Bucks did do a nice job with reserves in Game 6 vs Atlanta. Portis had a huge game and Connaughton was solid; moreover, Lopez did sensational, enabling Holiday and Middleton to do their thing successfully. Tonight, Suns a bit too savvy to take a back seat. Ayton can handle Lopez much better than Capella did. Crowder has that big game experience (Miami last year in Finals), and Booker overdue for another big game. Throw in veteran PG Paul to run the show and Bucks should wither down the stretch. |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Back to Atlanta, Young most likely back in action, no Giannis on the road makes way for a likely Game 7. Lopez was a monster in Game 5 and fueled the way for quality performances from Middleton, Holiday and Portis. But Bucks 1-6 ATS as a road dog and inconsistency with Bucks gives value back to Atlanta here. Reddish now in the fray gives that quality depth needed. Atlanta, 18-3 ATS as home chalk, the call. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +3 v. Bucks | 112-123 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Hawks/Bucks 8:35: At first glance, inkling to take Milwaukee on account that they've won without Giannis (out) on the floor before. However, disturbing that the Bucks were flat into Game 4 when had a chance to take command of series, especially with Atlanta's top player - Young - out. Tonight, most likely Young (bone bruise) will take the floor. Sure Capella (eye) and Bogdanovic (knee) are questionable but lean towards playing. Nevertheless, Okongwu, Reddish have proven to turn in quality minutes off the bench for the Hawks; moreover, Lou Williams proved he can still come off the bench with productivity. On the other hand, not sure if Portis, Connaughton or Forbes can make up the point void left without Giannis. Middleton and Holiday have been hot and cold under Budenholzer. And don't like the 0-4 ATS mark when the Bucks are off a 10+ point loss. Hawks 5-2 ATS as a road dog and we'll grab the points. |
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06-30-21 | Suns -102 v. Clippers | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:00: As anticipated in Game 5, Suns came out flat; consequently, Clippers jumped all over them early and sustained high energy throughout the game. Suns have the veteran leadership to counter effectively tonight. Suns need to work Ayton on pick and roll with a void in the Clippers lack of low post top tier players, especially with Zubac (knee) questionable. We'll look for a more intensified effort from veterans Paul and Crowder. Booker should continue to do what he does best - score. Not sure Clippers can top Game 5 effort. Suns need killer mentality and should deliver. |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 130-103 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Suns/Clippers 9:00: As expected in Game 5, shots that were bricking in Game 4 found their way in the basket in Game 5 to go "over" the adjusted down over/under (215). Tonight, back in Los Angeles where this series has gone 2-8 O/U. Now 5 of the last 7 in the series went "under". And Game 5 seemed like an easy "over" throughout 3.5 quarters but stalled out late to create a sweat. In Los Angeles, the last three games total output has accumulated 213, 198 and 164 respectively. Got some wiggle room with the total and considering the history of the scrums in this series in LA and that the Suns are 0-4 O/U off a SU loss, we'll stay "under". |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Hawks threw some haymakers early in Game 3 but the Bucks survived the assault and closed it out strong. Budenholzer decided to use his Big 3 virtually the entire game and it paid dividends. Wouldn't be surprised if Middleton, Giannis and Holiday go the duration again tonight. Atlanta's Young shut down after his ankle bone bruise (again, we're talking basketball players here). Wasn't effective at all in 4th quarter. And it's almost automatic when Giannis wants to take the ball to the rack as Capella is rendered useless; after all, Lopez does a bang up job in the low post on both ends of the floor. I like Collins but he has limited help down low. We'll look for the Bucks to pull away. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Clippers showed grit climbing back in Game 4 before falling down the stretch. Both teams shot horribly but Clippers managed to stumble worse in the scrum with pitiful numbers of 33% from floor, 16% from perimeter and an inexcusable 66% from free throw line. Tonight, with back against the wall and everything to lose, we'll look for a rejuvenated Clippers team despite the absence of Leonard (knee). Clippers are 16-7 ATS in this series, 5-1 ATS on Mondays and covered 4 of last 5 as a playoff dog. Clippers' HC Lue has made some decent adjustments, but needs Reggie Jackson back to his prime time ways. In addition, need George to show more ready for prime time play and Mann needs to shoot more. Clippers should leave it all out on the floor here. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Game 4 numbers were ugly. Suns were clanking to the tune of 36% from floor and 20% from 3 point range. That was good enough to whip a Clippers team shooting a brick laying 33%/16% and a disgraceful 66% from the free throw line considering they were #1 in free throw shooting % during regular season. Tonight, let's look for those rim rollers to align in the net; after all, this series has gone 10-4 O/U in Phoenix. And the 'total' has now dropped to a reachable 214. We'll look for the Clippers as the #1 three point shooting team in the NBA to play more relaxed. Phoenix should maintain their groove on their home floor. "Over" the call. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 113-102 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 8:35: Hawks were awful in Game 2. There were promising moments as Cam Reddish got his first bit of action in four months and did OK. As for the rest of the Hawks - a step slow and a bucket short in each quarter. The second quarter was a complete disaster getting outscored 42-17! At home, we'll look for a different story. Hawks a strong 30-12-1 ATS at home off a SU loss and covered 20 of their last 26 home games. Bucks 1-5 ATS on the road vs a home team with home win % above .600. We'll look for Young and company to get their traction and hit some buckets tonight. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | 84-80 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-25-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | 91-125 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Hawks/Bucks 8:35: Hawks clearly not intimidated by the Bucks. Hawks now 5-1 ATS run as a road dog in the playoffs. In Game 1, Young went off to continue his excellent post-season; in addition, Collins was a great compliment. The good news is that there is room for improvement, especially from 3 point range (25%). And that could change if Bogdanovic and Gallinari get their perimeter range back. Nevertheless, the Hawks did a nice job adjusting when the long ball wasn't dropping. Trae Young was doing a great job dropping floaters and alley oop lobs. As for Milwaukee, similar box score numbers as they were a more pathetic 22% from 3 point range yet a solid 46% from floor. Defensively, however, Budenholzer not coming up with the defensive adjustments. Technically, Hawks now 19-7 ATS in Milwaukee and 13-6 ATS in last 19 meetings in this series. Bucks 1-4 ATS off a SU loss and 1-4 ATS as chalk. Take the points again. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Suns/Clippers 9:05: As stated in my last write up, Clippers were there in Game 2 and needed a thread more clutch play (free throws from George) down the stretch for the outright; nevertheless, they covered and should be in line to get the win here despite the return of Chris Paul. Beverly is doing as best as he can pestering hot shot Booker. Reggie Jackson has been huge and George is playing well. At home, Mann, Batum and Kennard should lock in as key support players. Even Zubac is holding his own vs Ayton. Clippers are 4-0 ATS in last 4 home games, 6-1 ATS as a home dog and should deliver. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks | 116-113 | Win | 102 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Clippers/Suns 9:05: Clippers held their own in Game 1 despite not having Leonard. They hit 45% from floor, 43% from 3 point land and 82% of free throws. Unfortunately for them, Suns shot 55%/41% and 100%. Booker dropped 40 and Ayton was strong with 20. Tonight, I believe Coach Lue will make the needed adjustments to cover like he did vs Utah. Remember, he went small against Utah in Game 6 and exploited Defensive Player of Year - Gobert - who was rendered useless trying to stretch to the perimeter. Tonight, Clippers need Mann to shoot more and Zubac and Batum to step up their game to assist Jackson and George. Sure, Payne is doing a bang up job keeping Chris Paul's seat warm at the point, but Clippers are a better defensive team than what they showed in Game 1. We'll look for better defense and a bit more successful on the offensive perimeter. Clippers have covered 14 of the last 20 in this series. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7 v. 76ers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |