Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-25 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
Bills/Chiefs 6:30: Over the last 4 NFL seasons, Bills have had three attempts to knock off KC in post-season play and came up empty on all 3. The perfect storm for the Bills came last year when they had the Chiefs in Buffalo for the Divisional Round. Bills dominated the line of scrimmage early and just when the Bills thought they had them, the Chiefs came roaring back with a strong run game behind Pacheco and, as usual, Mahomes locked in and found his receivers, including an inexplicably wide open Travis Kelce a multitude of times down the stretch. Today, with home field advantage, and another healthy loaded skill position group; moreover, defensively, playmakers have emerged once again. Karlaftis was the latest player in the Spagnuolo system to make an impact last week. On the other hand, Buffalo run stop unit still suspect. Baltimore was revving up late and presented big trouble to the Bills' defense late last week. Had Andrews caught the two point conversion, Ravens had the momentum to possibly pull that one out. Bottom line, KC makes the big plays when the game is on the line and will stay with the incumbent champ here. |
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01-26-25 | Commanders v. Eagles -6 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Commanders/Eagles 3:00: Love what Jaden Daniels did in Kingsbury's offense this season. But the glass slipper should come off here. I believe cagy veteran DC Fangio will dial up the right blitz/coverage combinations to get Daniels off course. Washington won't have one of their best lineman - RB Cosmi (ACL) to protect him or help with the run game. That means journeyman Trent Scott will have to deal with All-Pro Jalen Carter. And Eagles' secondary pretty healthy now and they're a major upgrade in talent compared with what Detroit used last week. Defensively, Commanders without RDT Payne (knee/finger) who is a major contributor as a run stopper and power rusher. We'll look for the Eagles to hitch the wagon to 2000+ yard runner Barkley to keep them rolling. |
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01-19-25 | Ravens v. Bills | 25-27 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bills 6:30: Bills would be, and should be, the favorite in this game...if the weather calls for snow. So far, 17 degrees at game time with light winds is the game-time forecast. Josh Allen and RB Cook have proven they can deliver in snowy conditions; on the other hand, would believe long strider Derrick Henry and uber fast twitch Lamar Jackson would have trouble gaining traction on a snow covered field. As it it, going with the stronger team. Baltimore's run game is as strong as it gets. Buffalo' middle of the pack defense is suspect; throw in assignment football on Jackson and Henry, and they should fall short like they did earlier this season in Baltimore. And even without Zay Flowers (doubtful), Jackson had no trouble thrashing the Pittsburgh defense. Jackson has been accurate 66% completions and in command with the football with a ridiculous 41/4 TD/INT. His counterpart, Josh Allen, equally great to his team and, like Jackson, a legitimate MVP candidate. However, Baltimore defense has evolved into a really good unit as the season progressed under DC Zach Orr. Not only is their defense staunch vs the run (#!) but now the secondary has improved dramatically as S Kyle Hamilton got healthy. Him and CB Humphrey make it difficult to garner explosive plays on. We'll side with the Ravens. |
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01-19-25 | Rams v. Eagles -6 | 22-28 | Push | 0 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Rams/Eagles 3:00: As you know, I was all over the Rams (+2) last week vs Minnesota. Today, I'm going to fade them. Eagles present a much more significant challenge to the Rams than a not quite ready for prime time - Minnesota team. Eagles have a healthy, loaded lineup on both sides of the ball with no apparent weakness to exploit. And both coordinators - OC Moore and DC Fangio are getting the best out of their players. Rams are well coached too but do have some weaknesses along the offensive line. Sure, they held up well against the Vikings' overly aggressive but predictable defense; however, Fangio's unit offers a more difficult challenge with coverage disguises and exotic blitzes from all three levels when winning the first two downs. And the Eagles are very stingy in yielding yardage (#1 in yards per play allowed). Rams have thousand yard rusher -Williams and a loaded cast of skill players for Stafford, but Eagles' defense so disciplined in not allowing explosive plays and tough to run on. I believe the Eagles can win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Barkley thrashed the Rams' defense for 302 yards from scrimmage, including 255 rush yards and 2 TDs on November 24th in the 37-20 route in LA. If the both of the Eagles' lines play up to their potential, they should cover. I believe they will. |
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01-18-25 | Commanders +10 v. Lions | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
Commanders/Lions 8:00: Really hard to go against the Detroit machine, especially at home. Offensively, Detroit is almost fully loaded now that RB Montgomery is back in the fray. Although starting RG Zeitler (hamstring) is out. Lions will have to use Mahogany in his 2nd NFL start. Commanders have those Alabama interior line beasts - Payne and Allen - that Quinn can utilize to disrupt the A gaps. Other than that, it will be challenging for that Commanders' defense. On the offensive end is where Washington can hang. QB Daniels is a prime-time player and he's making the best of players that were on the edge of going into obscurity before he exploded on the scene. McLaurin (1096 yards receiving) has become a serious deep threat with Dyami Brown. And former Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz has resurrected his career because of Daniels too. And unlike pretender Minnesota, the Commanders have answered the bell to meaningful games. With the injury ravaged defense of Detroit, look for OC Kingsbury to guide Daniels and company through the questionable Lions' man coverage schemes that worked against the clueless Vikings. Commanders the call. |
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01-18-25 | Texans v. Chiefs -8 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Texans/Chiefs 4:30: Houston defense was tremendous last week against the Chargers. The pass rush was effective while the back end locked down most of the Chargers' receivers en route to 4 interceptions from a real good QB in Herbert. Today, it's going to be difficult to duplicate that performance. Defending Champion Chiefs had extra time to prepare. And we all know the extra rest/prep time for an Andy Reid coached team has been quite lucrative over the years. Chiefs well rested offensive weaponry that Mahomes has, is much better than what Herbert had to operate with. Mahomes even makes TE Noah Gray (40 rec/5 TDs) stand out. And a healthy Pacheco should keep the KC offensive machine firing on all cylinders now that the offensive line had a chance to heal up. And defensively. give DC Spagnuolo some extra time to dial up a game plan to a healthy and talented defense, it will spell trouble for opposing QBs. We'll lay the points with KC |
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01-13-25 | Vikings v. Rams +2.5 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Vikings/Rams 8:00: Both teams well coached but like the Rams here. Vikings have proven they can win a lot of game under O'Connell but struggle to advance in big games; for example, in the 2022-23 playoffs in the first round against the NYG, they flubbed opportunities to lose 31-24 in what was NYG Daniel Jones signature game that got him a huge contract. Another came last week against Detroit in what could have launched them into the #1 seeding with a bye. Their offensive line was ill prepared for blitz pickup against a makeshift Lions' defensive front. Darnold folded deep in Lions' territory under pressure. And O'Connell made questionable 4th down - go-for-it decisions in what was - at the time- a tightly contested game. October 24th, these teams met with the Rams getting the best of them. I see McVay getting it done here again. He's got a veteran QB with a fully loaded receiving corps - now that Higbee is back in the fray, and a solid run game. Vikings' blitz happy defense eventually wears down over their constant blitzing (highest in NFL). Defensively, Rams have gradually improved under DC Shula since that disastrous 1-4 start. The young Rams have a good pass rush and solid on the back end. Darnold has been sacked 46 times this season (4th worst in league), and despite having arguably the best receiving corps in the NFC, struggles in these big games. Rams the call. |
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01-12-25 | Commanders v. Bucs -3 | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
Commanders/Bucs 8:00: These teams met September 8th in TB with Mayfield throwing four TD passes in a comfortable win. Mayfield has been strong all season now that he's in a good offensive system and has a run game with Bucky Irving (1122 yards). Mayfield won't have Godwin like he did in the first game, but Evans and the return of TE Cade Otton gives him plenty of weapons. Washington's QB Daniels having a stellar rookie season and has a great supporting cast too; however, TB has a better defense than Washington, especially with the return of S Antoine Winfield Jr.. Should be the difference maker. We'll roll with TB |
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01-12-25 | Packers +5.5 v. Eagles | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Packers/Eagles 4:30: Last season, Packers were the youngest team to win a playoff since the 1970 NFC/AFC merger. This season, knowing that last post-season they went into Dallas and won handily, a confident and more experienced Packers team is ready for the challenge in Philadelphia. QB Love (elbow) is good to go and has Doubs back this week to help fill the void of Watson (ACL). Also, Reed, Wicks, and underrated TE Kraft are big targets for Love. And 1300+ rusher Josh Jacobs has been stopped by few teams this season. On the other hand, Packers' defense will have to contain 2000 yard rusher Barkley, who ran for 3 TDs in the first game - opening day in Brazil. Since then, rookie LB Edgerrin Cooper became the heat seeking missile of the defense - leading in all run stopping categories. And the ball hawking secondary of GB led by FS Xavier McKinney's 8 INTs could be trouble for Hurts. Look for GB to stay in this one. Sirianni just 8-22 ATS vs opponent with same-season revenge. |
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01-12-25 | Broncos v. Bills -8 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos/Bills 1:00: Broncos should have a tough trip to Buffalo. Denver had some road issues on the road vs winning teams. As a matter of fact, if you throw out the January 5th KC game in which the Chiefs sat a majority of the their starters, Denver didn't fare well vs teams above .500 at 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS. Buffalo is a tough venue to visit. And ever since Joe Brady took over as OC, Josh Allen and the Bills offense started humming. Also, keep in mind that Josh Allen's 13 TD passes in 5 appearances in the Wild Card Round (4-1) is equivalent to Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. And that Denver defense thrives on sacks and takeaways; however, Bills' Josh Allen is the least sacked QB in the NFL, and the Bills' offense turned the ball over only 8 times during the regular season; moreover, in the month of December, Denver defense got shredded by the Browns, Bengals and Chargers. Offensively for Denver, still question rookie Bo Nix on the road vs a winning team. Bills ball hawking secondary has gotten healthy and we'll look for them to create problems for the rookie. Rookie quarterbacks 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in road playoff games. Bills the call. |
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01-11-25 | Steelers +9.5 v. Ravens | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Steelers/Ravens 8:00: Prognosticators ripping the Steelers entering this game. Steelers are on a four game skid, albeit against winning teams, so some of the criticism is warranted. However, I don't believe Tomlin is unable to motivate his team to play hard here; after all, he's a sweet 13-2 ATS vs division opponent off back-to-back SU wins, including against these very Ravens November 17th. And as a road dog vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins, he's 10-1 ATS. Steelers have playoff caliber personnel, including Russell Wilson (2 Super Bowl appearances). Remember, as great as Lamar Jackson looks in the regular season, he's on the other end of the continuum in playoff football at 2-4 SU while completing 57% of his passes with 1.5 giveaways per games and 4-3 sacks per game. We'll take the points. And he won't have one of his top vertical threats - Zay Flowers (knee) who is out. Division rival Steelers, who were pissed after home blowout loss December 21st, should be competitive here. |
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01-11-25 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 12-32 | Loss | -115 | 88 h 57 m | Show |
Chargers/Texans 4:30: Both teams are solid and disruptive defensively; however, I believe the Chargers have the better balanced and more disciplined offense, which should ultimately decide the game. Now that JK Dobbins is healthy, the identity of Los Angeles (run the rock and play action frequently) is in full force. Houston, on the other hand, is in the bottom of the league in penalties, interceptions, fumbles. Moreover, Stroud has been sacked an average 3.2 times a game (30th). That doesn't bode well against the sack happy Chargers that also lead the league in points allowed. Chargers find ways to win by limiting mistakes and making plays and the right calls in critical situations. Houston not quite there yet. Chargers the call. |
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01-05-25 | Vikings +3 v. Lions | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Vikings/Lions 8:20: Stakes are high. Winner receives NFC #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Loser drops to wild card on the road to face either Rams, Bucs or Falcons. Lions snuck by the first game. Vikings cleaned up turnover problem since and functioning well on both sides of the ball. Vikings are fully loaded offensively with Jefferson, Addison, TE Hockenson, RB Aaron Jones and add Jalen Nailor to the mix. Darnold brimming with confidence and should be able to attack the back end of the Lions' defense that's been vulnerable most of the season (32nd in pass yards allowed). Vikings' defense has its issues too and Jeff Goff is as dangerous as they come at home vs heavy blitzing teams. As this game plays itself out, I look for O'Connell to make the right critical decisions and deliver. Vikings 12-4 ATS on the year including 4-0 ATS run. Vikings the call. |
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01-05-25 | Dolphins v. Jets | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Jets 4:25: Last week, Miami was fortunate to play at Cleveland in 60 degree weather. History of Dolphins football in cold doesn't bode well in recent times. We all know Tua's struggles in freezing temperatures. In the last freezing temperature game the Dolphins played - 11/28 in Green Bay, a 30-17 lopsided defeat. Tua actually played well in that game but a majority of the Dolphins, especially defensively, played stiff. Today, Tua (hip) sits and Tyler Huntley looks to build on a couple decent starts. But look for the vengeful Jets to spoil the party. QB Rodgers wants that 500th TD pass and go out a winner in what will perhaps be his last game. We'll give the edge to the Jets here as they eliminate the Dolphins from the playoffs. |
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01-05-25 | Chiefs +11 v. Broncos | 0-38 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Broncos 4:25: Chiefs sitting some of its top defensive personnel, including Chris Jones, and that's always a concern. But Reid is always a stickler for developing his second and third tier players, and the ones that are playing have seen significant playing time this season. And they're in good direction under top DC Spagnuolo. Offensively, Mahomes, Pacheco and Kelce are resting. Carson Wentz, who had some quality time in the sun as a starting QB, does have a pretty loaded receiving corps to go to, including Worthy, Hopkins, Brown and TE Noah Gray. Denver a formidable opponent and desperate to get entry to the playoffs with a win here but I don't expect the Chiefs to lay down. Remember last season, Reid rested lots of starters and still won outright at LA Chargers with Blaine Gabbert as his starter. Take the points. |
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01-05-25 | Panthers +9 v. Falcons | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Falcons always seem to disappoint when they're in the driver's seat. Falcons' HC Morris is no stranger to disappointing bettors over his HC career: He's 2-13 ATS vs an opponent off a double digit ATS loss. Panthers have shown flashes of competitiveness in the second half of the season. Bryce Young's performance has improved dramatically since the infamous bench. Panther are 3-1 ATS in this series and looking to avenge October 13th loss. Panthers on a nice 6-2 ATS run and should bounce back after a beat down last week. |
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01-04-25 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Bengals/Steelers 8:00: Most likely a shootout. Bengals have been outscoring three of their last four opponents. Backup quarterbacks they faced in three of the last four. The other - Nix - is a rookie. Steelers' offense no juggernaut but Wilson and a healthy receiving corps (Pickett is back) should see the end zone vs the injury ravaged Bengals' defense that hasn't gotten its footing all year. Last time they played - Dec 1st - Wilson dropped 414 yards on them with 3 TD passes in a 44-38 win. Burrow has been an absolute machine for most of the season and I don't see the Steelers stopping him or his fully loaded receiving corps. "Over" the call. |
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12-30-24 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 50.5 | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Lions/49ers 8:15: This series has gone 4-0 O/U including that January 28th 34-31 Detroit debacle in Santa Clara. Projected about 52 for this 'total'. We get a few points of value with the "over". Detroit offense at near full strength with RB Montgomery out. The strong Lions' offensive line can surely win the battle of the LOS and unleash Gibbs for a bulk of the carries. Goff is loaded with all receivers in check against a vulnerable SF secondary with CB Ward out. Dolphins gutted the 49ers with speedster Achane (120 yards rush, including 50 yard TD). On the other hand, Detroit's defense is decimated with lots of its top players from early in the year on the IR. Shanahan still has Kittle, Samuel and Jennings for Purdy to do damage with. We'll look for explosive plays and points tonight. . |
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12-29-24 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
Packers/Vikings 4:25: Playoff implications for both teams. Vikings fighting with Detroit for the top spot in the division and Green Bay jockeying for position to improve playoff seeding. Green Bay is looking to avenge earlier season loss when they were nearly run out of Green Bay in the first half before a strong second half comeback that just fell short. But Green Bay defense not at full strength and that's a concern. WLB Quay Walker plus C Alexander and Safety Evan Williams are out. Minnesota's QB Darnold has a wealth of talent at his disposal with Justin Jefferson, Addison, Aarron Jones and throw in a healthy TE Hockenson, can't see GB stopping them. On the other hand, QB Love won't have vertical threat Watson (knee) to go to. Vikings' defense still playing at an elite level and mostly healthy. We'll grab Minnesota here. |
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12-29-24 | Dolphins v. Browns UNDER 34 | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Browns 4:05: Both teams are experiencing offensive woes. Dolphins won't have Tua (hip) and that's always a problem for the Dolphins. Tyler Huntley (1 TD/I INT) will attempt to rev up the offensive machine. He likely won't have Waddle (knee). Tua was in great rhythm with newfound go-to-guy TE Jonnu Smith - who has as many TD catches (6) as Tyreek Hill (wrist). Defensively, Browns pretty healthy and once again should keep them in the game. On the other hand, Browns' offense not in good hands with Dorian Thompson Robinson (0 TD/5 INT). And he won't have TE Njoku or Tillman. We'll look for good punting and low offensive output today. "Under" the call. |
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12-29-24 | Colts -7 v. Giants | 33-45 | Loss | -115 | 156 h 23 m | Show | |
Colts/Giants 1:00: Colts still alive for the playoffs by virtue of the Bengals winning yesterday. They'll still need help next week but, at least for now, have something to play for. On the other hand, Giants in a tanking mode and haven't even shown pride in their humiliating defeats culminated last week at Atlanta. Colts will not have Anthony Richardson (out), and that's actually a good thing. Flacco has the veteran leadership, much higher completion percentage and not quite as many interceptions. Colts will rely on RB Jonathon Taylor to put another dent into the poor Giants' run stop unit that allows 143 YPG at nearly 5 YPC. Offensively, Drew Lock will surely not ignite an offense dead last in the NFL in production. Colts the call. |
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12-29-24 | Panthers +9 v. Bucs | 14-48 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Carolina/Tampa Bay 1:00: Carolina ultra-competitive despite their shortcomings. Six of the last seven Carolina games decided by 6 points or less with three going to OT. Bryce Young showing signs that he can play in the NFL. This division matchup pretty competitive including on December 1st in Charlotte with the Bucs narrowly escaping with a 26-23 OT win. Both teams have injuries to key players but the one that stands out most is Cade Otton - Mayfield's go-to-target. He's sorely missed on those much needed third down conversions. Mayfield having a great year but let's not forget his 15-27-2 ATS mark as a favorite. Carolina the call. |
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12-28-24 | Cardinals v. Rams -6.5 | 9-13 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Rams 8:15: Rams rolling on a 4-0 SU/ATS roll, and we'll stay on them here. Rams have won and covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. Rams can take a step closer of securing the NFC West with a win here with Seattle on deck. Arizona can only play for pride after eliminating themselves from playoff contention last week at Carolina. They're playing into revenge tonight. Rams stewing over 41-10 whitewashing September 15th in Arizona. Los Angeles back then was shuffling their line and trying to reestablish their offensive identity. Defensively, the young defense was figuring things out under first year DC Shula. Since then, Rams have gotten better, and Arizona has gotten worse. Rams' addition of Higbee (TD catch last week) gives Stafford that go-to big target he grew to love a few years back. Rams the call. |
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12-28-24 | Broncos v. Bengals -3 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Broncos/Bengals 4:30: Defensive numbers look great for Vance Joseph's defense: They're #1 in sacks, #4 scoring defense, in the top tier in run defense; however, they've had cracks in their secondary that led to guys like Jameis Winston and Herbert torching them. Joe Burrow is currently playing on an MVP level and Jamaar Chase is on the verge of achieving the coveted Triple Crown (receptions, yards/TDs). Defensively, Bengals playing better over the last three games. Bo Nix occasionally showing his youth and it may emerge here too against a suddenly opportunistic Bengals' defense that's captured nine takeaways over its last two games. Bengals still fighting for the playoff lives should get er done. |
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12-28-24 | Chargers -5 v. Patriots | 40-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Chargers/Patriots 1:00: Chargers playing for the playoffs while the Patriots playing for the draft. Last year, a poor version of the Chargers - under Staley - went into Foxborough and won 6-0. This year's Chargers' team much sounder and well-rounded under Harbaugh. Drake Maye showing good energy and throwing TDs but also interceptions. His counterpart - Herbert - playing at an elite level and will have his RB Dobbins back in the fray. Defensively, Patriots have trouble stopping the run and rushing the QB - bottom tier in both. That's a recipe for disaster vs the Chargers' heating up offense. Despite the travel and cold temperatures, we'll ride the rugged Chargers. |
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12-25-24 | Ravens -5.5 v. Texans | 31-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
Ravens/Texans 4:30: No style points for Houston's 9-6 record. The Texans look bad in their losses and mediocre in their wins this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, is rolling offensively and their defense is now on the same page with DC Zach Orr. Baltimore has physically beat up Houston in four straight games. Texans without Dell (ACL), will surely set them back a bit against a Ravens' secondary that's starting to get it together. Ravens the call. |
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12-25-24 | Chiefs -150 v. Steelers | 29-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Steelers 1:00: Steelers off back-to-back physical losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Defense starting to wear thin and now C Porter Jr. on the rack. That doesn't bode well against the NFL's best QB Mahomes who has added Hollywood Brown to his already dangerous receiving arsenal. And the Chiefs have had zero turnovers during their five game win streak. But KC, like Pittsburgh, who played last Saturday, is not without their share of injuries. The left tackle for KC has been a weakness all season and Humphries is out. Surely Pittsburgh will attempt to exploit that weak area with bookends Watt and Highsmith. But Reid and Mahomes have surely spent time in the film room working on a solution (RB chip, quick pass, draw, etc). Defensively, the Chiefs are 3rd in yards allowed and points allowed. DC Spags will surely dial up packages to keep Russell Wilson out of rhythm. Chiefs' Nickel/S Conner (concussion) is out and that's a concern. Fortunately, KC second tier players well schooled. KC is looking to lock in the #1 overall seed and home field advantage throughout playoffs. KC not winning big but deliver. |
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12-23-24 | Saints v. Packers -14 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Saints/Packers 8:15: New Orleans decimated with injuries to key personnel. Taysom Hill, Olave, Carr, Kamara headline the list. Spencer Rattler not ready for prime time as it is, now has to battle the elements (freezing temp at game time) with inexperienced receivers vs a pretty good secondary featuring a very solid safety duo of McKinney and Williams. On the other hand, GB offense operating well with QB Love at the controls and RB Josh Jacobs eating grass and moving chains. GB looking to clinch playoff berth and strengthen seeding prospects. New Orleans playing for pride. Their interim coach doing a good job in keeping them in games, but this may be a bit of a stretch for him. We'll look for GB to cruise. |
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12-22-24 | Jaguars v. Raiders OVER 40.5 | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Raiders 4:25: Both of these defenses leave much to be desired. They each allow 27 PPG. And Raiders' Aiden O'Connell gives us value with the "over". He can effectively throw the ball downfield and utilize TE matchup nightmare - Brock Bowers much better than Ridder was able to. Jaguars struggle to rush the passer (30th in sacks) which should allow more downfield plays. On the other hand, interception prone Mac Jones offers big play potential with Brian Thomas Jr.. Fortunately for Mac Jones, he won't have to worry about edge disrupter - Maxx Crosby (out) leading to a bit more time to make a downfield read. He's also got a run game to lean on with Bigsby and Etienne. "Over" the call. |
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12-22-24 | Vikings -3 v. Seahawks | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Vikings/Seahawks 4:05: Vikings, operating on all cylinders, are in the hunt for the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout playoffs. Minnesota is relatively healthy for this time of year. Offensively, the return of Hockenson put the Vikings' offense on a new level. Seahawks' offense has its issues with blitzing teams and Vikings' do it better than most. We'll look for Geno Smith to continue to struggle when heavily pressured. Vikings the call. |
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12-22-24 | Browns +9 v. Bengals | 6-24 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Browns/Bengals 1:00: Division game rivalry and the Bengals haven't swept the Browns since 2017. Bengals won the first season meeting Oct 20th in Cleveland 21-14. Both teams currently have their issues. Browns will use at QB Dorian Thompson Robinson. He actually played in that first meeting doing good things with his feet but throwing two interceptions. However, he gives the Browns the best chance to stay in this one today; after all, unlike Winston, he's coachable and will listen to Stefanski. And this time, he's got a good supporting cast. The once powerful Browns' offensive line is on the mend and a lot healthier. Sure, Chubb (broken foot) is out but Ford is showing big play promise. The Cincinnati defense, which is at the bottom of the NFL in rushing the passer, has its share of injuries at all three levels to key players. Browns' receivers Jeudy, Moore and TE Njoku are healthy. Defensively, Browns will have difficulty stopping Burrow. but do have some playmakers in game wrecker - Myles Garrett - and a decent secondary. With everyone and their brother on the heating up Bengals, take the value with the dog and the points here. |
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12-22-24 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 46 | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Browns/Bengals 1:00: Both defenses should be on their heels today. Bengals' defense is riddled with injuries and should have trouble controlling the L.O.S. against a better Browns' offensive line. Browns' QB Thompson-Robinson has the mobility to buy time and talented receiving corps to go to. On the other hand, Bengals' machinelike QB Burrow should continue to put up big numbers with Chase and company. Bengals are 11-3 O/U at home vs their division off an away game. Regardless of the inclement weather, "Over" it is. |
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12-22-24 | Rams -3 v. Jets | 19-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Rams/Jets 1:00: Coaching mismatch with McVay vs whoever managing the Jets. Rams, coming off a win at SF last Thursday, had a few extra days to go cross country to prepare and acclimate. Stafford now has a full arsenal of weapons with his old go-to-TE Higbee cleared to play. Jets' defense hasn't been the same since the heart of it - MLB Mosley - went on the IR. Young Rams' defense, making stops when it has to, should make plays vs the Jets' offense that still doesn't have an identity and players with questionable futures. Rams in the playoff hunt, should deliver. |
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12-22-24 | Titans +4 v. Colts | Top | 30-38 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Titans/Colts 1:00: A highly contested series in the AFC South here. Titans in a revenge mode from Week Six 20-17 loss. Titans now have a fighting chance without interception king - Will Levis. Mason Rudolph, who's actually 9-6-1 as a starter in his career with Pittsburgh and here in Tennessee, will get the nod. He should be able to utilize his pretty decent skill cast in a more disciplined way. And defensively, the Titans, which are #2 in yards allowed, won't be thrust into defending the goal line as often in quick change turnover mode - as Levis put them in so often. On the other hand, not confident in Colts' QB Richardson, who completes a meager 47% of his passes and regressed over the last few weeks. Titans 4-1 ATS last 5 at Indianapolis. Titans the call here. |
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12-21-24 | Steelers +7 v. Ravens | 17-34 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
Steelers/Ravens 4:30: Steelers play the Ravens tough. They've won and covered 8 of the last 10 meetings including November 17th 18-16 win. Pickens (out) was a big part of that win. Ravens' secondary still having issues (31st vs pass) and the Steelers did get their ground game going in Week 11. Steelers 10-1 ATS vs division opponent off away win in December. They're also 10-2 ATS on the road vs opponent off double-digit SU win. Ravens are down a few weapons themselves including Agholor (concussion). We'll look for Steelers to stay in this closely contested series. |
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12-19-24 | Broncos +2.5 v. Chargers | 27-34 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Broncos/Chargers 8:15: Back in Week 6, Chargers bested Denver 23-16. Dobbins ran for 96 yards and a TD. And Denver's Bo Nix was still in his early stages of development under Payton. A recent change of momentum has occurred though. Denver's on a 4-0 SU/ATS run while the Chargers have dropped 3 of their last 4 games. Denver remains relatively healthy while the Chargers have key injuries defensively and, especially, to their offensive horse JK Dobbins (IR). Harbaugh prides himself on running the football and playing physical defense. Last week's blowout loss finally played out a disturbing trend. Chargers have not had a 100+ yard rush game in 4 weeks while averaging a paltry 3.5 YPC. Sure, Herbert is one of the best QBs in the NFL but he's going to play on a high ankle sprain vs a blitz happy lock down defense. Herbert, who has completed just 49.6%) of his passes vs man coverage, has McConkey as his only consistent go-to-guy. Q and Palmer are inconsistent and converted QB - TE Smartt, doing great as a replacement for Dissly (out), but struggles blocking. Consequently, it should be hard to finish on the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. Denver healthier on both sides of the ball and should deliver here. |
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12-16-24 | Falcons v. Raiders +6 | 15-9 | Push | 0 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Falcons/Raiders 8:30: Both teams plummeting as the season progresses. Not having Maxx Crosby (out) surely hurts, at the same time, adds another point of value against a team (Atlanta) heading nowhere. Raiders' players still fighting for jobs and future contracts. Ridder gets to go against his old team that dumped him. He surely has one of the best tight ends (Brock Bowers) in the game to go to. Falcons have difficulty rushing the QB (32nd in the league); consequently, Ridder should be able to get the ball downfield. As for the Falcons, Cousins (leads league in INTs) not having an easy time despite a talented skill arsenal. Atlanta's shaky offensive line losing the battle more often than not. And Falcons' HC Raheem Morris a very shaky 2-13 ATS vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS loss. Raiders the call. |
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12-16-24 | Bears +7 v. Vikings | 12-30 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
Bears/Vikings 8:00: Bears have covered all three of their division games this year and throw out a mistake or two, they could easily be 3-0 vs NFC North foes. Sure, they're beat up along the offensive line with two starters out, but Caleb Williams has been running for his life all season. He still has dangerous skill weaponry in Moore, Odunze, Allen RB Swift and TE Kmet. Vikings coming off a blowout win and gunning for 8th straight win. We'll look for the Bears to go what they been doing all season vs division foes - hanging around. Bears 11-1 ATS vs greater than .500 division opponent off double digit straight up win. Bears the call. |
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12-15-24 | Bucs v. Chargers -3 | 40-17 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Bucs/Chargers 4:25: Hate to fade Mayfield as a dog but will here. TB is cruising on a 3-0 run and have to travel to face the ornery Chargers who are eager to get back in the win column following close loss last week at KC. Razor sharp Herbert will have Ladd McConkey back but TB, which is already struggling in the secondary, won't have veteran FS Winfield Jr. manning center field. We'll look for the improving pass game of LA to do the damage here. Chargers the call. |
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12-15-24 | Commanders -7.5 v. Saints | 20-19 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Commanders/Saints 1:00: Dan Quinn always dangerous off a win; moreover, 8-0 ATS off a double digit ATS win. Quinn will start Lattimore - making his homecoming vs his former team. He and the Commanders' defense should be trouble for QB Jake Haener - earning the starting role over Rattler in practice. Respect Rizzi rallying the troops after the well-deserved firing of Allen, Jayden Daniels and company a tough out here. New Orleans 0-6 SU/ATS vs teams above .500 this year. Washington the call. |
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12-15-24 | Bengals -5 v. Titans | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Bengals/Titans 1:00: Bengals' defense leaves much to be desired, but Joe Burrow has a full load of talent to throw to and the offense is hard to stop. Bengals 4-0 ATS as road favorites and Burrow is 12-4 ATS as road chalk. Bengals the call. |
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12-15-24 | Dolphins +3 v. Texans | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Dolphins/Texans 1:00: Texans getting by in their wins and comfortable atop the weak AFC South. Stroud has been sacked way too much, and defensively - defensive back Pitre (pec) is a big loss. Dolphins, meanwhile, have rallied around Tua. Tua has completed at least 70% of his passes in 7 straight games. Since the weather will be Dolphins' friendly (62 degrees), Hill, Waddle, TE Jonnu Smith and RB Achane should be too much for the Texans to contain. Texans 2-7 ATS in last 9 as a favorite against a less than .500 team. Miami 7-1 ATS after the Jets. And don't trust the Texans off a bye. Remember last year after their bye week, they got beaten outright by the lowly Carolina Panthers. Dolphins looking to hold on for their playoff lives should deliver. |
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12-12-24 | Rams +3 v. 49ers | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
Rams/49ers 8:15: I'll never count a Shanahan coached team out this time of year; after all, 49ers have done well in December the last 3 years; however, injuries mounting and even the next man up, in some instances, is injured. With McCaffrey (IR) and Mason (ankle) out, 3rd team RB Guerendo was doing well but now he's hobbling with a sore foot. And dominant LT Williams still not ready to go. Defensively, SF should have Bosa back and Greenlaw (Achilles) could make his first appearance of the season. Not happy with the 49ers defense this year under first year DC Sorensen. 49ers look good on paper in total defense (3rd in yards allowed) but almost dead last in red zone defense. Only Carolina (worst defense in NFL) is worse. Rams' Stafford in a nice rhythm with Kupp and Nacua. And run game heating up again (outrushed last 2 opponents). Rams' defense still suspect but McVay a sweet 7-1 ATS on the road after allowing more than 35 points. Rams also sport an impressive 6-1 ATS mark on Thursdays, including October 24th over Minnesota. We'll take the points. |
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12-09-24 | Bengals v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Bengals/Cowboys 8:15: Defensively, both of these teams can't stop anyone. Injuries have virtually ruined the Bengals' defense. And more bad news on the way with their top LB Logan Wilson out. They have reserves loaded at all three levels. Cowboys' offense surely not a juggernaut. No run game but Cooper Rush is efficient in his passing and the Bengals' defense can't sack the QB (31st in league). Any NFL QB can pick and choose in a virtual 7 on 7 drill and Rush should be able to locate Lamb often. Cowboys' defense is getting healthier; however, they're not going to stop the Joe Burrow machine from connecting to healthy Chase, Higgins, TE Gesicki, RB Brown or whoever he chooses. I thought this "total" was going to be set at 52 and we'll roll with the "over" |
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12-08-24 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Chargers/Chiefs 8:20: Chargers' Harbaugh has built his team on strong defense (#1 scoring), solid run game, and stable QB play. And throw in decision making by Captain Comeback and the Chargers stay in games. Last week, they were unable to get the run game going and even lost the stat game in all areas except where it counts - on the scoreboard. A testament to good coaching. Of course, KC has won its share of games through smart decisions and making plays in crucial times when needed. Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as they continue to do just enough to get er done. Chargers are in revenge mode from September 29th 7 point loss. We'll look for the Chargers to stick around to put themselves in position to cover here. |
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12-08-24 | Bills -3.5 v. Rams | 42-44 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Bills/Rams 4:25: Bills playing a great stretch of ball. The #2 scoring offense in the NFL is clicking on all cylinders and I don't see the Rams' suspect defense slowing them down. Well coached Rams should put up a fight but hard to trade points with the way Josh Allen and company are playing now. Rams have struggled vs the AFC East at 2-7 ATS. And they're SU/ATS vs Josh Allen led Bills. Bills the call. |
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12-08-24 | Bills v. Rams OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-44 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Bills/Rams 4:25: Projected a 50 point total and lines makers came in accurate. Bills have scored 30 or more points in six straight games. Rams' defense has its moments but remains inconsistent under DC Shula. Bills' offensive line is similar in strength to Philadelphia's. And a few weeks back, the Eagles ran roughshod (314 yards) over the Rams. Bills' offense every bit as potent. Defensively, Bills' defense could yield some points here. Stafford has Nacua and Kupp back in the fray, and he could have his old go-to big target TE Tyler Higbee (off IR) make a cameo. And RB Kyren Williams could have a solid game; after all, Bills' defense allows a generous 4.9 YPC (30th). McVay 13-1 O/U as a dog vs an opponent off a double digit SU win. "Over" the call. |
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12-08-24 | Falcons +6 v. Vikings | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Falcons/Vikings 1:00: Not a fan of Falcons' HC Morris. He'll always manage to F Up a good thing as he's doing with Atlanta again in his second stint with them. They start out great then collapse. But great time to jump on the value here. Cousins, who has demonstrated resilience in his career and this season, goes back to his old stomping grounds to compete. He's been struggling bad but still has a plethora of weaponry to burn an overly aggressive Vikings' defense that could be vulnerable to the big play today. Vikings without their top corner - Gilmore (hamstring) could be trouble with London and Mooney roaming the secondary. Vikings not dominating in wins as their 2-5 ATS mark for their last 7 indicates. Atlanta still deep in the hunt in the NFC South should play with desperation here. Atlanta the call. |
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12-05-24 | Packers v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Packers/Lions 8:15: Projected this total to be at 52 and lines-makers did not disappoint. Injuries have mounted to key defensive personnel on both sides. GB second level depth hurting without a few linebackers out including Cooper (31 solo/2 sacks). The Detroit run game is potent with Gibbs and Montgomery behind the bruising Lions' OL. And QB Goff is machinelike at home. GB C Alexander (knee) is out and he's one of their top defenders. On the other hand, Detroit defense is decimated with injuries with three key linemen (Reader, Paschal and Onwuzurike) out. LaFleur is quite good at exploiting weaknesses. RB Jacobs should have another big game. He rushed for 95 yards in the first meeting November 3rd. And QB Love has been protected well this season (2nd in the NFL). He has speedsters Watson and Reed available along with go-to-guy TE Kraft. Detroit HC Campbell is 17-4 O/U vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. LaFleur is 9-2 O/U as a conference dog of more than 2 points. "Over" the call. |
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12-02-24 | Browns v. Broncos -6 | 32-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Browns/Broncos 8:15: Always concerned after a Browns' win. Stefanski sports a money burning 2-11 ATS mark as a dog off a SU/ATS win vs a greater than .500 opponent. Denver, on the other hand, is a sweet 11-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos this year have mostly delivered against teams under .500 at 5-0 SU/ATS. Nix, after struggling in his first two NFL games, has gone on a 16/2 TD/INT run. And last 5 games, he's completed 70% of his passes. Payton has done a solid job in mentoring him. Nix is surrounded by a pretty good offensive line, a deep backfield and a real good go-to weapon in Sutton. Defensively, Broncos have been strong keeping teams out of the end zone - (16.8 PPG). Browns' offense still in question. Sure, Winston has given them life but the run game, which has been a staple of success for Cleveland the last few years, is falling off (88 YPG/29th in league) and that's a major concern. We'll look for Denver to unleash the dogs on Winston and force him into errant throws. The SU winner of MNF Browns' games has gone 12-0 ATS. I expect Denver to deliver here. |
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12-01-24 | Colts -2.5 v. Patriots | 25-24 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-24 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-24 | Seahawks v. Jets | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-24 | Chargers -1 v. Falcons | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Analysis to follow... |
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11-29-24 | Raiders v. Chiefs -12.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chiefs 3:00: I realize that this is a division game, and the Raiders are out to avenge the October 27th loss; however, they haven't demonstrated any continuity on both sides of the ball. They're using their third team QB O'Connell and going deep into the depth chart at RB. Their offensive line is having difficulty opening holes and protecting the QB. The Raiders are at the bottom of the league in fumbles and interceptions. And KC will most likely come into this one in an ornery mood after an underachieving effort vs the lowly Panthers last week. Spagnuolo will surely address the poor tackling and displacement in coverage. KC defense most likely will bracket the best player for the Raiders - TE Bowers. And the Chiefs should improve on their sack total vs the unorganized Raiders' offensive line. Blitz pickup has been a problem all year for Las Vegas, and it will get extremely challenging against Spagnuolo's designed blitzes. Raiders' defense has shown a wearing effect over the course of a game, including in the bottom tier of the league in the 4th quarter -giving up an average of 10 PPG. KC the call. |
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11-28-24 | Dolphins v. Packers -3 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Packers 8:20: By now, most know that Tua is 0-7 when the temperature is lower than 40 degrees. However, can't put entire blame on Tua; after all, Dolphins are 0-11 in late November regular season and post season games in near freezing conditions. Keep in mind that his top receivers - Hill, Waddle and current go-to-weapon - Jonnu Smith are from the warm southern states. Getting acclimated to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is physically challenging. GB is 5-1 in the last 5 matchups in this series including winning and covering the last matchup in November in GB back in 2018 - 31-12. McDaniel just 2-7 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back wins. |
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11-28-24 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 37.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants/Cowboys 4:30: Backup QBs, bottom tier run games, shaky offensive lines, and a division game add up to a low scoring affair here. "Under" the call. |
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11-28-24 | Bears v. Lions -9.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
Bears/Lions 12:30: Lions have been a Thanksgiving Day tradition. They've played on this day every year since 1945. Amazingly, the last time Detroit won a turkey day game was in 2016. We'll look for that to change today. Detroit is rolling and not taking their foot off the gas pedal. They're now 23-9 ATS at home under Dan Campbell. Detroit's defense has turned it up over the last few weeks and sport a ball hawking secondary which will surely test Bears' QB Williams who has a shaky offensive line defending him. And this is the 7th time over the past 40 seasons that the #1 scoring offense plays on Thanksgiving Day. Each of the last 6 won and covered. With the Chicago defense recently caving in, we'll lay the points here with the rolling Lions. |
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11-25-24 | Ravens v. Chargers +2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
Ravens/Chargers 8:15: Although not said in public, uber competitive Jim Harbaugh desperately wants to improve on the 0-2 (Super Bowl + Thanksgiving Day 2011) mark against his brother - John. He'll use a similar approach to what Pittsburgh did last week to halt Lamar and company to a season low 16 scoring points. Although the Chargers have some key defensive players out (LB Perryman), the "next man up" philosophy works for this year's Chargers. They sport the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (14.5 PPG allowed). On the other hand, Baltimore does very well against the run (#1); however, MLB Roquan Smith (hamstring) is out, and he plays a huge part (61 solo tackles) in not only the run but in coverage. Chargers' RB Dobbins has been strong running behind a very good offensive line. And since early October, the Chargers have opened up their pass game with top tier QB Herbert; consequently, the results have been great as McConkey (shoulder) has been established as his go-to-guy. Baltimore defense in the back end has been shaky virtually all season. They're at the bottom tier in pass coverage under first year DC Zach Orr. We'll look for Herbert to effectively dissect that secondary tonight. Chargers the call. |
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11-25-24 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Ravens/Chargers 8:15: Somewhat surprised this 'total' is set so high. Was projecting 46-48 range. The last four games in this series averaged 35.5 with a range of 30 to 40. And the Harbaugh brothers are always about run game and defense. John Harbaugh sports a 5-14 O/U mark as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. "Under" the call. |
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11-24-24 | Cardinals v. Seahawks | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Going to stay on the hot Cardinals. They've won four straight and coming off a bye. Unlike last season, when coming off a bye they were out of the playoff picture, they're atop the leader board of the division and Gannon is doing a nice job steering the ship. QB Murray is having a career season passing (69% completions/ 12 TD/3 INT) along with being a big part of the #5 rushing offense in the league and #2 in YPC. Seattle's defense has fallen off from the 3rd week and vulnerable here. TE McBride turning into a big time target and go-to guy. And Harrison Jr. is living up to his billing. Seattle offense is humming but passing too much and never a good thing for Geno Smith. Arizona defense primed to grab some interceptions here. Cardinals a sweet 5-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Arizona looking to finally beat Seattle after 5 failed attempts. This sixth meeting should be a charm. |
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11-24-24 | Broncos -5.5 v. Raiders | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Broncos/Raiders 4:05: Division rivalry and Raiders seeking revenge from earlier season defeat; however, as it stands, major uphill battle for Las Vegas. They have the worst run game in the NFL and one of the least productive offenses in the NFL; consequently, HC Pierce cleaned house in the offensive meeting room. Going to be a tough task for pass game coordinator - Scott Turner to get the offense generated against a stingy Denver defense - ranked 3rd in points allowed. Minshew should continue his struggles. Meanwhile, Denver offense humming with Bo Nix putting up solid numbers on a unit that's producing the bottom line. We'll look for HC Payton to keep it rolling. Broncos are 8-0 ATS as division road favorites. |
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11-24-24 | Bucs v. Giants +6 | 30-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Bucs/Giants 1:00: Giants have hung around against the non-elite teams of the NFL. I wouldn't categorize TB as an elite team. They've lost their last 4 games and have multiple injuries. They did have a bye week to get back WR Evans and that's a big upgrade but fixed in the line. Daboll is 5-0-1 ATS vs an opponent off a bye. At the same time, the Giants had some time (bye week) to figure things out. They released QB Daniel Jones and upgraded DeVito who is actually 3-3 SU /4-2 ATS as a starter. This season, he has Nabors (questionable) and Slayton to go to. And the offensive line is pretty healthy to unleash RB Tracy (545 yards rush). Buc's defense has given up 20 pass TDs this season (5th worst in league). Sure, Mayfield is dangerous, but mostly as a dog. Mayfield as a favorite sports a shaky 14-25-2 ATS mark. Grab the points with the home team. |
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11-24-24 | Chiefs -10.5 v. Panthers | 30-27 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Panthers 1:00: Chiefs got their wake-up call last week and should respond with a resounding win here. Panthers getting a false sense of confidence after beating a collapsing Saints team, that fired their coach after the game, and a NYG team that spelled the end of an era for the Daniel Jones debacle. Look for NFL's top DC Spagnuolo to dial up a variety of blitzes to take away the confidence of Bryce Young that was built up over the last two games before the bye week. On the other hand, Mahomes should light up the worst scoring defense in the league. For the record, KC 7-1 ATS on the road in non-conference games while Carolina sports an 0-9 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs greater than .600 opponent. Lay the wood with the Chiefs. |
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11-21-24 | Steelers -3.5 v. Browns | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Steelers/Browns 8:15: Want to push the button on the Browns but can't. Their run game was the driving force in previous years with Chubb behind a formidable offensive line. Although the line is getting healthier, Chubb just not producing (3.1 YPC). If the Browns can't run on the Steelers, having Winston air it out repeatedly is surely a recipe for disaster - as demonstrated against New Orleans. Pittsburgh defense is #4 vs the run with a good back end; moreover, they're the #2 scoring defense in the league. On the other hand, Browns' defense staying on the field longer because of lack of production from their offensive teammates; as a result, they're leaky vs the run (24th in the league) and beat up in the secondary. Steelers' QB Russell Wilson settling in as a quality starter and the run game with Harris and Warren is helping. Cleveland sports a scary 1-15 ATS mark in their division when coming off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. We'll look for Tomlin to keep his team levelheaded and deliver. |
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11-18-24 | Texans -7 v. Cowboys | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Texans/Cowboys 8:15: On the surface, Cowboys getting 7 points at home on MNF seems like quite a bargain; however, at a closer look, getting 7 points seems quite reasonable. Last week, Cooper Rush couldn't get the ball downfield (longest completion -10 yards) and the run game remains in the dumpster (83.7 YPG). It won't get easier vs the aggressive defense of Houston that will surely employ lots of blitz action with man free coverage. Houston has a few injuries in the secondary and top edge rusher Anderson (ankle) is out, but still have Stingley Jr. to lock on Lamb with Pitre and Ward on top to protect vs explosive plays. Defensively, Dallas is the elixir Houston needs to break out of their slump. Stroud will have Nico Collins back to significantly help the pass game. Houston should lean on Joe Mixon to continue to put a dent in a Dallas run stop unit allowing a generous 152 YPG. Dallas' DC Zimmer struggling to find answers now. We'll lay a TD with Houston. |
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11-17-24 | Browns v. Saints | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Browns/Saints 1:00: Liked how the Browns started to get their run game going prior to the bye. They had a week to get healthier, especially along the offensive line. New Orleans' defense ranks in the bottom tier of the NFL, including the run stop unit. Look for Browns to get Chubb and company going and Winston to hit play action. Browns the call. |
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11-17-24 | Colts +4 v. Jets | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Colts/Jets 1:00: Colts stick around. They're 3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. QB Richardson back in the fray after benching. Steichen has done a nice job in working with offense in keeping them in games despite the turnovers, incompletions, sacks. Jets have talent but still haven't found a way to manufacture wins. We'll grab the more stable team with Indy here. |
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11-17-24 | Jaguars v. Lions -13.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Jacksonville/Detroit 1:00: Campbell a super 22-9 ATS in home games. After a sluggish performance against Houston for Goff (5 INTs), he should be back to machine-like precision in his comfortable confines of Ford Field where he's been spectacular. Jacksonville defense is dead last in yards allowed and allow opposing QBs the highest rating! Goff should surgically dismantle the punchless secondary with his plethora of weapons even without TE LaPorta (out). On the other hand, backup lightweight - Mac Jones - will be in for a rude awakening vs the ball hawking secondary of Detroit - 13 INTs. And the Detroit defense leads the league in disarming opposing QBs - keeping them with the lowest rating. We'll lay the wood with Detroit. |
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11-17-24 | Ravens v. Steelers +3 | Top | 16-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Steelers still not getting respect. They've won 7 of the last 8 in this series and this is, by far, the best Steelers' team over that span. Wilson has given the Steelers a deep ball game and the running game is cooking. Moreover, Steelers control the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. That's Steelers football! Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to struggle with that secondary coverage under new DC. Tomlin is 30-12 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins, including 12-2 vs their division. Steelers the call. |
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11-14-24 | Commanders v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
Washington/Philadelphia 8:15: Eagles' abundance of talent starting to gel with coaching staff. Fangio has turned the defense into a Top 5 unit. As good as Jaden Daniels has been, he did show some vulnerability vs Pittsburgh. Eagles' defense has tightened substantially from a year ago. And they're the least penalized defense in the NFL. Fangio is definitely leaving his mark and will surely have a plan dialed up for Daniels. On the other hand, Washington defense has been yielding against the run (4.9 YPC) and that doesn't bode well vs Barkley and Hurts. Disturbing stat on Dan Quinn: 4-17 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. Eagles the call. |
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11-11-24 | Dolphins v. Rams -135 | 23-15 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Miami/Los Angeles 8:15: Rams starting to gel on a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS run. With the healthy insertion of Nacua and Kupp back in the offensive fray, Stafford is finding his range. And RB Kyren Williams is surely fueling the offense like the Gurley days. Defensively, like how the young defensive line is developing. And the hybrid backer/edge guys: Verse and Young have 7 1/2 sacks. Meanwhile, Dolphins continue to find ways to lose despite the return of Tua. They are showing improvement but will fade McDaniel here. He's 2-8 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back wins. And don't like that Miami is 2-12 ATS as a road dog on MNF. McVay, the better coach, has his guys finding ways to win. Rams the call. |
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11-10-24 | Lions v. Texans OVER 49 | 26-23 | Push | 0 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Lions/Texans 8:20: Both defenses seem vulnerable here. Houston, which blitzes 33.4% of the time (5th most in NFL), will have to face the wrath of top tier QB Goff, who is at the top of the list in defeating blitzes. And he has the explosive weaponry to connect to. On the other hand, Houston is overdue to get back on track after struggling at New York on Halloween. Stroud could have Rico Collins back today. He's had some time to work with Woods, Metchie and Tank Dell, TE Shultz and versatile RB Mixon. Detroit, although adding Za'Darius Smith to the edge, hasn't had that fierce pass rush they did earlier in the year with Hutchinson (IR). I don't think Stroud will be rattled this week like he was under the pressure of the NY Sack Exchange II last week. Detroit's had some secondary issues for Branch can't cover the whole field. We'll go "over" here. |
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11-10-24 | Eagles v. Cowboys +7.5 | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Eagles/Cowboys 4:25: Everything seemingly falling into place for the Eagles - reeling off 4 straight wins (2-2 ATS); meanwhile, the Cowboys are self destructing on an 0-3 slide. Good news is that Parsons (questionable) most likely will play. He's a significant disruptor to opposing offenses. Offensively, Cooper Rush is a very capable quarterback with a 5-1 record as a starter. Can't trust Sirianni at 2-8 ATS as a road favorite vs a less than .500 team. Cowboys hand around. |
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11-10-24 | Jets v. Cardinals +2 | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Jets/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals' HC Gannon getting it done. He's now 13-6 ATS vs non division opponents and 6-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU/ATS win. Cards improving as the season progresses, especially defensively. And the run game is cooking with Conner, Demercado and Benson. QB Murray is having his best season since his rookie year. Jets, on the other hand, stopped the bleeding with a win over Houston on the 31st. We won't trust them here. Cardinals have a bit more stability in their program and getting points at home. Cardinals the call. |
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11-10-24 | Titans v. Chargers -7.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Titans/Chargers 4:05: Thought this would be double digits so we'll lay a TD with the hook. Chargers have the blueprint for success: strong defense, good run game, and a great signal caller. Titans, on the other hand, bring back mistake prone QB Will Levis on a team that leads the league in interceptions, limited run game, and defensively posts great numbers in all but the most important column - points allowed - 27 PPG - bottom tier of the NFL. Chargers the call. |
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11-10-24 | Broncos +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Chiefs coming into this one off a short week (MNF). Overall, their health is good, including Mahomes (ankle); however, Denver is more hungry to get back in the win column after a double-digit thrashing by Baltimore. Sean Payton is a sweet 20-9 SU / 22-7 ATS vs division opponents coming off a win, including 10-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. We'll take the points. |
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11-07-24 | Bengals +6 v. Ravens | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Bengals/Ravens 8:15: Bengals trying to get back in contention in the AFC North. They need to avenge their October OT defeat and I believe they do here. Baltimore is coming off a satisfying 41-10 blowout win at home vs Denver. Ravens, under Harbaugh, are a money burning 1-4 ATS on Thursday coming off a double-digit SU win. Moreover, they're 1-10 ATS as a division home favorite vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Bengals are coming off a strong blowout win over Las Vegas, sports a nice 6-1 ATS Thursday ledger vs an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win. Burrow has found his rhythm and he's usually unstoppable when he's in that zone regardless of who he has catching the ball. Sure, Higgins (doubtful) is out again but Chase, Gesicki will surely pick up the slack, and someone else in the receiving arsenal should contribute; after all, Baltimore has a bottom tier pass defense under struggling first year DC Zach Orr. Defensively, Cincinnati showing signs of improvement over respected DC Anarumo as his interior getting healthy. We'll take the points. |
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11-04-24 | Bucs v. Chiefs -9 | 24-30 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Bucs/Chiefs 8:15: Mahomes has gotten the best of Mayfield three times in the NFL. Mayfield, however, won the epic battle in October of 2016 at Texas Tech when Mahomes threw for 734 yards against Oklahoma but lost. Flash to now, and it will be difficult for Mayfield to keep the #4 scoring offense in the NFL at a high level with a depleted roster of receivers. His top targets Evans (hamstring) and Godwin (IR) are out; moreover, he's developed some chemistry with Shepard (hamstring) and McMillan (hamstring) but both are questionable. Even explosive rookie RB Irving (toe) is questionable. Mayfield has done some amazing things on prime time - classic Thursday night 17-16 engineered win over Las Vegas as a brand-new addition to the LA Rams in November of 2022; however, this will be a monumental obstacle to overcome against the Spagnuolo 5th ranked defense that has a penchant for making the big play when needed. Flip over to their so-called interception prone - QB Mahomes - who possesses the same quality. Only thing, Mahomes a near perfectionist and working to get better weekly. And unlike Mayfield, he still has some weapons (Hopkins, Worthy, Kelce, Hardman, Hunt) at his disposal along with a pretty healthy offensive line. TB defense has consistently been a sore spot for most of the year in the bottom tier in yards allowed and scoring. We'll lay the wood with the Chiefs. Andy Reid a strong 7-0 ATS as a double-digit home favorite off a division game. |
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11-03-24 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Rams/Seahawks 4:25: After a hot 3-0 start, the Seahawks on a 1-4 SU/ATS slide. Defensively, they've dropped off sharply, including vs the run (4.9 YPC). McVay has Los Angeles playing well. They surely shored up their defense vs Minnesota last Thursday. And Nacua (probable) and Kupp make a difference in helping out Stafford. And look for Stafford's best friend - RB Kyren Williams - to continue to pile up ground yardage. Seahawks, offensively, won't have matchup nightmare - DK Metcalf (out). Rams 6-1 ATS last 7 vs Seattle and 4-0 ATS at Lumen Field. Rams the call. |
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11-03-24 | Bears v. Cardinals -125 | 9-29 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Bears/Cardinals 4:05: Bears finding ways to lose games with silly gadget plays and poor situational play. Meanwhile, Cardinals doing the right things in critical times of game to win. Cardinals getting that run game cooking with Conner and Murray is at his best when that's the case. Bears have offensive line issues and the Cardinals are starting to actually sack the QB now. We'll grab the Cards. |
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11-03-24 | Cowboys v. Falcons OVER 52 | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have an embarrassment of riches for Kirk Cousins to go to. Pitts, London, Mooney and throw in RB Robinson will be hard to be contained by a depleted Cowboys' defense that's given up 28.3 PPG. And with a banged up secondary, no Parsons (out) or Lawrence (IR) to generate any kind of consistent rush, Atlanta should continue to get in the end zone. On the other hand, Atlanta's defense ranks dead last in sacking the QB and who better than garbage time player of the decade - Dak Prescott to sit back and find CeeDee Lamb and company. We'll go "over". |
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11-03-24 | Chargers -1 v. Browns | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Chargers/Browns 1:00: Chargers have been solid vs losing teams and should deliver. They have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL with a ball hawking secondary and Bosa (hamstring) - listed as questionable - could aid in bolstering their sacks. Browns' QBs have been sacked more than any other QBs in the NFL at a rate of 4.6 per game. Winston does give the Browns life and the offensive line is getting healthier. However, defensively, Browns won't have their leading tackler Onusu-Koramoah (out) and starting MLB Hicks (Out). Harbaugh is all about establishing a run game and that doesn't bode well for Cleveland's run stop unit. QB Herbert found his range with McConkey last week. Browns' secondary won't have their top corner - Denzel Ward (out). Cleveland is coming off an emotional win last week but should come up short here. Stefanski a poor 2-10 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS win vs greater than .500 opponent. Weather should be seasonably warm (63 degrees game time) in Cleveland as well. Chargers the call. |
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10-31-24 | Texans +2 v. Jets | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
Texans/Jets 8:15: Comfortable taking the Texans here as a road dog. Sure, Diggs (ACL) lost for the season in an already depleted receiving corps (Nico Collins out). But Stroud developed nice chemistry with Tank Dell, TE Schultz, and either Stroud will find a way to mix in Hutchinson and seasoned veteran Woods. Most important, Texans should get the run game going with Mixon, who's rattled off three straight 100+ rushing performances. Jets' defense has already allowed six 100+ rush games. And with five-time pro bowl LB C.J. Mosley - out, look for the Texans to establish the run game. Houston has had some turnover problems this season (at least one in 6 of last 7) but Jets' defense has been less opportunistic now that Ulbrich is full time HC - last three games - no forced turnovers. Defensively, Houston will need to shore up its run stop unit against RBs Hall and Allen. But Houston has forced nine turnovers over the last 3 games and the fading fleet feet of Rodgers is making him a sitting duck behind a mediocre offensive line. Houston has an aggressive front line and get home on blitzes (3.4 sacks per game). Jets an historical flop against non-division opponents on Thursday nights at 1-9 ATS. We'll grab the Texans here. |
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10-28-24 | Giants v. Steelers -5.5 | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Giants/Steelers 8:15: Steelers in a good position at top of the AFC North and will control the top position with a win here. Look for Tomlin to keep the Steelers playing at a high level. Russell Wilson, who was shaky early last week in his first start of the season but settled in nicely as the game progressed. He brings that veteran experience and nice touch on the ball. He's also an excellent Prime Time QB at 19-3/17-5 ATS! Daniel Jones, on the other hand, is a dismal 1-14 SU/5-10 ATS in the same role and hasn't thrown a TD pass in his last 7 prime time games. Steelers getting their ground game cooking with RBs Harris and Warren. Giants' defense vulnerable vs the run allowing 5.4 YPC. The Giants' offense in the bottom tier of the league in scoring at 14 PPG. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh defense is #2 in points allowed (14.4 PPG), has a healthy T.J. Watt, ball hawking secondary (5th in interceptions). Steelers a sweet 6-0 ATS as favorites of less than 14 points after scoring 35 or more points. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-27-24 | Bears v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Bears/Commanders 4:25: Bears winning games with great defense; however, they have a few key cogs in the secondary out and that could be costly vs the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. Rover - Brisker and Nickel Back - Gordon are important as run stoppers in zone defense in addition to their solid coverage. With Washington QB Daniels (ribs) getting the green light to play, we'll look for the offense to keep clicking under OC Kingsbury. Defensively, Commanders not great but making progress weekly. Bears' offensive line has been shaky in spots allowing 3.3 sacks per game. And you know how much Dan Quinn loves exotic blitzes. Quinn is a sweet 15-4 ATS as a dog off a SU win. Commanders 7-0 ATS off double digit ATS win. We'll grab the more well balanced Commanders. |
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10-27-24 | Cardinals v. Dolphins -4 | 28-27 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Arizona/Miami 1:00: Arizona coming off a satisfying win over the Chargers on Monday and now have to travel cross country on a short week to a fired up Dolphins team that has its QB back. Tua is good to go and he has a full arsenal of targets to go to. Arizona has its share of problems defensively. Sure, they stalled out the Chargers Monday; however, Herbert did his share of damage against the secondary despite having no vertical threat or top flight receiver to go to. Look for the Dolphins to get on track here. |
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10-27-24 | Eagles v. Bengals -2.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Eagles/Bengals 1:00: Bengals' offense heating up and hopefully Higgins (quad) is good to go. Defense, however, has been an issue and that surely poses a threat against a talented offense like Philadelphia. Bengals do get have interior tackles Rankins and Hill back to give them better run support and a pass rush power rush. Eagles won't have TE Goedert (out) and RG Becton (out). Bengals sport an impressive 27-7-2 ATS mark vs non-division foes including 15--3-1 ATS vs teams above .500. Bengals are 6-0 ATS after playing Cleveland. We'll roll with Cincinnati. |
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10-27-24 | Colts +5 v. Texans | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Colts/Texans 1:00: Texans had trouble protecting Stroud last week in Green Bay. And Stroud will be without his top target Nico Collins (hamstring) who shredded the Colts defense for 117 yards on opening day. Colts, however, get back RB Jonathon Taylor behind their already formidable offensive line. Surely that should help QB Anthony Richardson as Steichen continues to find ways to win. And Houston's defense won't have one of their leading tacklers - WLB Al-Shaair and FS Ward. Colts have shot at quietly taking over lead in the AFC South and we'll jump on them here in a revenge mode. |
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10-24-24 | Vikings -3 v. Rams | 20-30 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Vikings/Rams 8:15: Vikings a much more well-balanced team than the Rams at this juncture of the season. For LA, offensively, RB Kyren Williams has carried the offensive load. Stafford has missed Nacua (knee) and Kupp (probable). They're getting nothing from their TEs and limited vertical threat (Atwell); as a result, Stafford has struggled under pressure (26th). Vikings present problems with their amoeba defensive design -top tier in sacks and interceptions. Of course, Goff lit them up but he has a multitude of weapons and one of the top tier QBs under pressure. Defensively, is where the Rams have declined even more. New DC Shula has not matched his young talent with the scheme; as a result, Rams' defense ranked in bottom tier of the NFL. Vikings' offense equipped with explosive weaponry (Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Addison) and even TE Hockenson could make a cameo. QB Darnold's career resurrected by O'Connell. Don't see the Rams' struggling pass rush or poorly designed pass defense stopping them. We'll look for the better team -Vikings- to bounce back tonight. |
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10-21-24 | Chargers -1 v. Cardinals | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Chargers/Cardinals 9:00: Chargers' Harbaugh building another one of his teams on a strong run game and great defense. He's got a top caliber QB Herbert who hasn't put up his usual great numbers but could have a breakout game vs the Arizona defense (27th in yards allowed and scoring). Chargers' offense faced three very good defenses in Pittsburgh, KC and Denver. Arizona's should be a breath of fresh air. On the other hand, the Chargers control the #1 scoring defense in the league (13.2 PPG) and find a way to keep teams out of the end zone. We'll roll with Los Angeles. |
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10-21-24 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 50 | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bucs 8:15: Both of these offenses are percolating to a high degree. Baltimore is in the top tier offensively across the board and scores 29.5 PPG. Derrick Henry already has 704 rushing yards and 8 TDs. He's clearly fueling Lamar Jackson's play action game with his multitude of weapons. TB defense leaves much to be desired. They're 28th vs the pass and allow a generous 23.5 PPG. Ravens' defense, however, is not what it was a year ago under former DC McDonald (Seattle HC). Baltimore pass defense ranks 31st allowing 276 YPG! Mayfield is having a great year. Godwin is healthy and leading the team in catches, Evans (hamstring) should be good to go. And the run game with Bucky Irving (5.4 YPC) is a great complement to the Bucs' pass game. This "total" set a few points lower than I projected. We'll go "over". |
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10-20-24 | Jets v. Steelers +2 | 15-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Jets/Steelers 8:20: Jets hype train continues with Davonte Adams pick up. I'm not buying into it, will grab the home dog here. For two consecutive weeks, QB Rodgers had opportunities to execute a game winning drive on the road and failed because he wasn't in rhythm with his receivers. No question, Adams is a big addition but Jets should be more concerned with offensive line opening up running lanes and blitz pick up. Pittsburgh defense has done a bang up job of keeping teams out of the end zone (#2 scoring defense). And T.J. Watt is an absolute game wrecker in critical moments. As for the Steelers' offense, Wilson showed enough in practice to earn the starting job and we'll run with it. Fields had trouble hitting open receivers in RPO situations, something Wilson does well. OC Arthur Smith is creating somewhat of a replica of the productive offense he had at Tennessee in the King Henry, Tannehill, A.J. Brown in 2019. Offensive line starting to gel with the run game. Jets' defense very strong but do give up yards on the ground. And the Jets are thinning in the secondary. Steelers Tomlin a cash cow as a dog off a double-digit ATS win at 12-3 ATS. Steelers! |
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10-20-24 | Chiefs +2 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Chiefs/49ers 4:25: No one makes better use of bye week than Andy Reid at a staggering 21-4 SU including 8-3 SU with KC. And he owns the 49ers' head man. Shannahan 0-7 SU as an assistant and head coach vs him. KC has their share of injuries but manage to resurrect careers of former guys like Smith-Schuster and RB Hunt. It's what they do. Statistically, numbers mediocre at best. Mahomes has thrown as many INTs as TDs. He won't win you lots of fantasy points but will find a way to win the football game. He's not always great, just great when he has to be. As for the defense, DC Spagnuolo dialing up the right formula early this season - #6 scoring defense in the league. We'll grab the Chiefs again. |
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10-20-24 | Lions v. Vikings -1 | 31-29 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Lions/Vikings 1:00: Undefeated Vikings in the driver's seat and expect them to stay atop of the NFC North. O'Connell has gotten the best out of his coaching staff and players since he's gotten to Minnesota. Last season, the Lions swept this series. O'Connell had backup QB Nick Mullens at the helm. Mullens threw 6 interceptions in the two game series. This year, he's got journeyman Sam Darnold running the show efficiently. It helps that he's got a competent offensive line, and top tier skill players - Justin Jefferson, Addison and RB Aaron Jones (probable). Detroit doesn't have the corners that the Jets have, and DE Hutchinson (leg) accounted for more than half of the QB pressures. It will be hard to find an immediate QB pressure guy. Vikings' defensive prowess is a big reason why they're undefeated. And this is the first time Detroit will face a Top 15 EPA defense. Look for the well rested Vikings to deliver. |
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10-20-24 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | 28-3 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Eagles/Giants 1:00: This is the usual spot that Giants' HC Daboll gets his team to play better. Daboll was outstanding in 2022 - a covering machine; then fell off early in 2023 before winning 5 games outright as a dog last season - all from game 7 out. Here we are at Game 7 and the Giants are in much better shape than they were a year ago. Their offensive line is doing a pretty good job, rookie RB Tracy is solid, and Daniel Jones gets back his top guy - Nabers (concussion). Eagles' defense improving but still struggle vs the pass (21st) and have to use their two rookie corners - Mitchell and DeJean. Slay is playing on a bad knee and Ricks is battling a groin injury. Defensively, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks (26) and have a better scoring defense than the Eagles. Daboll a sweet 7-1 ATS at home off a SU loss. Giants the call. |
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10-17-24 | Broncos -2.5 v. Saints | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
Broncos/Saints 8:15: Saints started season strong but collapsed. Their secondary couldn't tackle second team backs from TB running rampant for explosive play TDs. That fundamental football isn't corrected in a few days on a short week. Broncos not an explosive offense but HC Payton has settled QB Nix down (5 TD/1 INT last 4 games). Saints' defense giving up 6.3 YPP (2nd to last in the league). Broncos need to establish the run with their deep backfield. On the other hand, Denver defense getting it done - limiting explosive plays, 4th in scoring allowed (16 PPG). They also are bringing the pass rush effectively with 3.7 per game which should rattle - Rattler. Sure, top CB Surtain (concussion) out Broncos' secondary well disciplined as a unit; furthermore, Saints' top two receivers (Olave and Shaheed) are out - not good for the rookie QB. Saints a brutal 0-9 ATS on Thursday nights vs non-division opponents. Broncos the call. |
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10-14-24 | Bills v. Jets +1 | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Bills/Jets 8:15: Both teams coming off back to back losses. Josh Allen struggled in both losses including 9 of 20 at Houston. It's not going to get easier tonight vs the top tier pass defense in the NFL, especially with Shakir and RB Cook struggling through injuries. Of course, the Jets have internal problems with a coaching change; however, this may be a good change. DC Ulbrich, who played a decade in the NFL, has his team's respect and taking away the play calling duties from NFL sycophant - Hackett - is a good thing. Look for the Jets to take pressure off QB Rodgers and run the ball on the Bills' defense - missing key line disruptor Ed Oliver (out). Bills' defense allowing NFL worst 5.2 YPC. Jets' RBs Hall and Allen should get it going to help open the passing lanes for Rodgers tonight. It's just a matter of time before he gets it going with his rock solid weaponry (Wilson, Lazard, Williams). Bills have a history of struggling in the 2nd quarter (games 5 through 8) of the season and it should continue to play out tonight where the Jets have covered 3 of the last 4 against them. Jets the call. |
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10-13-24 | Lions -3 v. Cowboys | 47-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
Lions/Cowboys 4:25: Well rested Lions had this one circled after last year's "failure to report" game. Detroit sports a top tier offense that's well balanced under Ben Johnson. Dallas defense not the same effectiveness under DC Zimmer. Last year, Quinn had them getting to the QB often; this season, Cowboys' defense 22nd in the league in sacks (2.2 per game). Lions protect Goff well and when he's protected, it's like a 7 on 7 drill. Detroit defense has its share of flaws, including allowing too many explosive plays. But Cowboys don't have a good run game (31st in yards and YPC) to help Prescott out. We'll look for the Lions to get sweet revenge. Dan Campbell - 8-1 ATS off any SU & double digit ATS win. Dallas' McCarthy 1-7 ATS off non-division vs opponent off double digit SU win. Detroit the call. |
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10-13-24 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | 47-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
Lions/Cowboys 4:25: Both defenses are giving up explosive plays and poor on back end coverage. Dallas is in the bottom tier defensively in pass yards per play. That doesn't bode well vs an explosive well rounded Detroit offense. And with Parsons (ankle) and LB Kendricks (calf) out, the Cowboys' defense should continue to struggle to put pressure on the QB. Dallas' offense, sports the worst run offense in the NFL and will surely air it out repeatedly against a shaky Detroit secondary. We'll look for a higher scoring game. |