Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Nets -3.5 Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Davidson +11.5 v. St. Mary's | 55-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Davidson @ St. Mary’s 4:00 PM ET Game# 807-808 Play On: Davidson +11.5 St. Mary’s has vastly underachieved in the early portion of their schedule when considering they were a preseason Top 25 team. The Gaels have lost their last 3 including the previous 2 in blowout fashion versus Xavier and San Diego State. They began their current 3-game skid by losing to Weber State at home as a 15.5-point favorite. Davidson is 3-2 but owns a win over Maryland and lost to currently undefeated Clemson by just 3. Davidson posted a 69-45 home win over Boston U. in their previous game. Davidson has gone an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a win by 20 points or more. Give me Davidson plus points. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Rockets -4.5 Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers v. Suns -12.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Suns -12.5 This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Cavs +8 v. 76ers | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Cavaliers +8.0 After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home. Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Howard +4 v. Bryant | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Bryant is coming off a massive 61-52 upset of nationally ranked FAU team and did so as a 23.5-point road underdog. That's an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from last season's Final Four team. However, now Bryant finds themselves as a short home favorite against a 2-3 Howard team. If it looks to goo to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me Howard plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Purdue -4.5 v. Gonzaga | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an experienced Purdue team that demolished Gonzaga 84-66 on a neutral court last season. The Boilermakers are 3-0 thus far and have outscored all 3 of those Division 1 opponents by a decisive margin of 29.6 points per game. Gonzaga's lone game versus a division 1 team this year was an uninspiring 15-point home win over Yale. Purdue is a terrific shooting and rebounding team. Expect a similar result to the one we witnessed last year. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Clippers 10:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Clippers -7.5 Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Nets @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Nets +3.5 Yes, Miami is on a 6-game win streak. However, all 6 of those wins have come by 8 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been winning decisively during this current hot run. The Heat are 3-1 SU at home but failed to cover on each of those 4 occasions. Additionally, in their only game versus Brooklyn this season they lost 109-105 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Brooklyn is a mediocre 6-5 to start the season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an extremely profitable 9-1-1 ATS during those 11 contests. Brooklyn has held all 11 of their opponents to less than 50% shooting. They’ve been especially stout defensively over their previous 4 contests while holding teams to 103.0 points scored per game and just 41.1% shooting. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Suns -6.0 This is an extremely fishy line with all being considered. Minnesota is on an 7-game win streak including coming off back-to-back wins at Golden State. Keep in mind, their win over the Warriors last night saw a brawl break out in the first 2 minutes of the game which resulted in 3 players being ejected and may cause a possible suspension or 2 which has yet to be determined. Then we have the Suns who have lost 4 in a row at home. Yet, it’s Phoenix that’s a sizable home favorite tonight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m going to reject that temptation. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-15-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. 76ers | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Celtics -4.5 These teams have played once this season and it occurred at Philadelphia last Wednesday with Philadelphia winning 106-103 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Well, the oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result based on the Celtics opening as a 3.5-point road favorite and they quickly moved to 4.5. Since that loss, Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the previous 2 at home versus Indiana in which they went 1-1. The 76ers expended a ton of energy in those 2 contests against a Pacers team that pushes the pedal to the metal regarding pace. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky v. Kansas -6.5 | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Kentucky vs. Kansas 9:30 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Kansas -6.5 There’s a bit of betting value which has diminished on Kansas since they opened as just a 4.5-point favorite. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Kansas is the more experienced team in this matchup and has more cohesive to their game than Kentucky has at this early stage of the season. This line speaks volumes to me considering both teams are nationally ranked and each is a storied program. Yet, the #1 Jayhawks are a sizable favorite versus #17 Kentucky on a neutral floor to boot. They’re pleading with you to take the underdog here. My answer is no thanks and give me Kansas minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. 76ers | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ 76ers 7:10 ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Pacers +5.5 These team played in Philadelphia on Tuesday and the 76ers walked away with a 137-26 win while also covering as a 7.0-point favorite. Yet, the 76ers opened as a 6.5-point favorite for today’s game and now they’re down to 5.0 despite them going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 outings. The Pacers are very good offensively and to steal a boxing adage they give us a puncher’s chance as a result. Throughout their previous 6 contests, Indiana has averaged a robust 130.5 points scored per game and shot 51.7% from the field. Give me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-14-23 | Duke -3.5 v. Michigan State | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET Game# 613-614 Play On: Duke -3.5 Both teams return 4 starters from a season ago and each is currently 1-1. However, Duke loss came at home to #3 Arizona by 5. Michigan State lost their season opener at home to then unranked James Madison and did so as a 16.5-point favorite. The Spartans have averaged 32 free throw attempts per game and made a somewhat mediocre 70% of those opportunities. Duke allowed 17 free throw attempts per game during their first 2 contests so it’s highly unlikely Michigan State will even come close to their season average today. These teams met last season and Duke won by 9 on a neutral floor and covered as a 6.5-point favorite. Give me Duke minus points. |
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11-10-23 | Yale +12.5 v. Gonzaga | 71-86 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Yale @ Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET Game# 859-860 Play On: Yale +12.5 This line and the ensuing line movement caught my attention in a big way. We have the college basketball powerhouse #11 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs as just a 12.5-point home favorite versus an Ivy League team. Furthermore, the number opened at 14.5 and was bet down to as low as 12.0 with some razor-sharp money. This will be the season opener while Yale already has a game under the belt in which they came away with a 102-53 win over Vassar who’s a division 2 school Vassar and they shot a sizzling hot 63% in that contest. Granted they’ll be stepping way up in class tonight. However, Yale returns 4 starters from last season’s 21-9 team that lost to Vanderbilt in the NIT. This is also a Yale program which has gone a combined 85-36 over their past 4 seasons under current head coach James Jones and reached the NCAA Tournament twice. Give me Yale plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | Tennessee v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 80-70 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET Game# 861-862 Play On: Wisconsin +2.5 Tennessee may be the most talented and athletic team in this matchup. However, the Badgers have traditionally had a strong home court advantage and return all 5 starters from last year’s 20-15 team which reached the NIT Semifinal. That type of experience coupled with a consistent winning culture will pay dividends against the #8 ranked Volunteers. Give me Wisconsin plus points. |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | 124-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Pacers 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Pacers +3.0 Milwaukee is 5-2 to start the season. However, 4 of those 5 wins have come by 5 points or fewer and with the line exception being a 122-114 home victory over Miami. As a matter of fact, despite their 5-2 record, the Bucks are a -2.3 points per game differential and a -7.1 rebound per game differential. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests they’re an abysmal -12.3 rebound per game differential. The Bucks offense has been as explosive as it’s been in recent years. However, their play at the defensive end of the floor has been terrible. Indiana will be playing the finale of a 5-game homestand today. The Pacers have been victorious in their last 2 with blowout wins over Utah 134-118 and San Antonio 152-111. The Pacers are 5-3 and 0.5 games behind Milwaukee in the standings, yet they have a superior point per game differential of +4.8 compared to the Bucks -2.3. Any NBA home team like Indiana that’s coming off 2 or more home wins in a row, versus an opponent like Milwaukee that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU since the 2019-2020 season. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the underdog in this spot. Give me the +Pacers plus points. |
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11-08-23 | Jackson State +1.5 v. San Diego | 61-87 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Jackson State @ San Diego 10:00 PM ET Game# 306541-306542 Play On: Jackson State +1.5 This line jumped right off the screen last night and even more this morning. San Diego opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and that line has fallen to 1.5 as of this writing. San Diego plays in the WCC with the likes of nationally ranked Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. They’re led by veteran head coach Steve Lavin who’s had arguably more success as a television personality than a college basketball head coach. San Diego was less than impressive in their 68-64 home win on Monday over Sonoma State that plays at the Division II level. Jackson State returns all 5 starters from a team that began last season 1-12 and then finished 13-7 over their last 20 games. That poor start can be attributed to a an extremely tough non-conference schedule in which they managed to pull at upset as a 12.5 underdog at SMU. They also were extremely competitive in road losses to Michigan by 10, Mississippi State by 10, and Tulsa by 6. Despite that poor start to last season they were still 8-5 ATS during those contests. The opened this season on Monday with a 94-77 road loss to a very good Memphis team in which they covered as a 21.5-point underdog. Give me Jackson State. |
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11-08-23 | Raptors +4.5 v. Mavs | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Mavericks 8:40 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Toronto +4.5 Despite being 6-1 to starts this season which includes 3-0 at home, Dallas finds itself as just a 4.5-point favorite versus a 3-4 Toronto team. Furthermore, this line opened at 6.0 and has come down to 4.5 even with most individual bets and money going the way of Dallas. This will only the 3rd game in 7 days for Toronto. Conversely, Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Mavericks are a very talented team, but their defensive play leaves much to be desired and should rear its ugly head even more so when playing against an opponent with a clear advantage in terms of rest. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Raptors @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: 76ers -8.0 I had Toronto last night and that result was never in doubt from the start has they blew out Milwaukee 130-11 as a 5.0-point home underdog. However, I don’t like this sport at all for them tonight. Toronto will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, they’ll be facing an opponent in Philadelphia which will be playing with 3 days rest since their last game. These teams met in Toronto last week and Philadelphia walked away with a 114-107 win despite Toronto making 53.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. I will go out on a limb and say the Raptors won’t come anywhere close to that in this one. Give me the 76ers minus points. |
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11-01-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors +5.5 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Raptors 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Raptors +5.5
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*) Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog. NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:00 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Heat +8.5 (5*) The Heat barely missed covering in Game 1 despite attempting only 2 free throws and shooting a miserable 40.6% from the field. Miami amassed 96 field goal attempts in that opening game loss and that’s significant. The Heat are 11-1 SU this season after attempting 93 or more field goal attempts during regulation time in their previous game. That improves to 6-0 SU if they lost that previous game, and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 8.5 points per contest. Those SU results take on added betting value when considering Miami is currently an 8.5-point underdog in Game 2. Furthermore, Miami has gone 4-0 SU in their last 4 this postseason following a game in which they shot 45.7% or worse. As a matter of fact, they shot a red-hot 52.7% in those 4 wins. Miami was just 13-39 from 3-point territory in Game 1. Nevertheless, they finished that contest 7-15 from beyond the 3-point line after starting the contest 6-24. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Celtics -8.0 (5*) The Celtics staved off elimination with an impressive blowout win at Miami in Game 4. NBA Playoffs home favorites of -6.0 to -12.5 like Boston that are down 3-1 in their current series, resulted in those home favorites going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU since the 2009 postseason. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. The only non-cover came on 4/30/2013 when Denver was a 7.5-point home favorite and they won by 7 versus Golden State. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*) Boston has lost the first 3 games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Since the start of the 2020-2021 NBA season, Boston has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS immediately following 3 straight losses. Putting those results into perspective, the Celtics have lost 4 games in a row just once over the previous 3 seasons. Furthermore, since 11/28/2021, Boston is an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS on the road in contests like today in which they scored 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games. Boston had an average point-spread of -1.1 in those 6 contests and won by an average of 14.8 points per game. Miami is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this season immediately following 2 straight wins in which they allowed 105 points or fewer. That includes 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that identical situation. Give me the Boston Celtics plus the small number. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Lakers -5.5 (5*) The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in these Playoffs, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 on the road. The Lakers will be playing with plenty of desperation and urgency at home tonight after losing the first 2 games of this Western Conference Final at Denver. It’s worth noting, the Lakers are 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with a substantial average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, dating back to the regular season, the Lakers will enter today on a 9-game home win streak. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any home favorite of 4.5 to 8.5-points that’s down 2-0 in the series, and they’re facing an opponent that’s anywhere from a #1 through #4 seed, resulted in those home favorites withing that specific point-spread parameter going 22-5 ATS (81.5%). If those home teams were facing a #1 seed, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS during that exact time span, and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -8.5 (5*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 123-116 home loss to Miami in game they closed as a 8.5-point favorite. Recent NBA Playoff betting history shows that teams like Boston coming off a Game 1 loss as a sizable home favorite doing very well as a similar sized chalk in Game 2. Additionally, the Celtics are an extremely profitable 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points that’s coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in which they scored 105 points or more, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since the 2019 NBA Postseason. The average line for those home favorites was -6.8 and they won by an enormous 23.5 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers +5.5 (5*) The Lakers have been terrific in recent times while going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss. As a matter of fact, they’re 4-0 SU&ATS during these 2023 NBA Postseason following a loss and won by a massive 25.3 points per game. Furthermore, the Lakers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog of 8.5 or less following a loss with an average victory margin of 10.1 points per game. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (10*) The Celtics are coming off a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force these deciding 7th game. NBA Playoffs Game 7 betting history over the past 20 years indicates teams like Boston in this exact situation haven’t failed to cover on each occasion. NBA Game 7 home favorites of 4.5 or greater like Boston that are coming off a Game 6 road win by 6-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a massive average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*) Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*) Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game. NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*) The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Nuggets -5.5 (5*) Phoenix has gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 as an away underdog. The average line in those 7 contests was 4.7 and they lost by 10.9 points per game. Phoenix is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 13.7 points per game. Denver is 39-7 SU and 28-17-1 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by 10.2 points per game. That includes 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with an average victory margin of 13.8 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 7:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*) The Celtics are coming off a heartbreaking 116-115 loss to Philadelphia in Game 4. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch and especially so of late. Boston is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 19.7 points per game. Conversely, Philadelphia has gone 0-4 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a home win and lost by 14.0 points per game. I’m predicting the Celtics will make a huge statement tonight on their home floor. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Warriors +3.0 (5*) Golden State is coming off an embarrassing 127-100 road loss in Game 3. However, the Warriors are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 during these playoffs following a loss and won by 21.3 points per game. Since the 2017 postseason, Golden State is 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 1.5 or greater following a playoff loss and won by 11.7 points per game. Considering their vast playoff experiences and successes, I expect Golden State to respond in a big way this evening. NBA Playoffs Game 4 away pick or underdog of 8.0 or less that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0 points or more, resulted in those teams going 6-0 SU&ATS since the 2005 NBA Postseason. Those teams’ average point-spread was +4.2 and they won by an average of 13.3 points per game. Give me Golden State plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (5*) Denver is coming off a disappointing Game 3 loss at Phoenix but still holds a 2-1 series lead. Any NBA Playoffs team that’s ahead in a series like Denver versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a season win percentage of .450 to .550 has gone 46-12 (79.35) since the 2019 postseason, and they outscored those opponents by an average of 9.7 points per contest. The SU results take on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 3:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: 76ers +2.5 (5*) After winning Game 1 in Boston, the 76ers have lost the last 2 in this series to fall behind 2-1. The 76ers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season and they outscored those opponents by 11.2 points per game. Philadelphia lost Game 3 at home 114-102. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 8-0 SU immediately following a home SU loss by 11-points or more and they outscored those opponents by 9.9 points per game. The 76ers certainly don’t want to return to Boston down 3-1 in the series. So, desperation and urgency with a quality team like Philadelphia will be a key component in us covering this contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 4 home underdog of 4.5 or less like Philadelphia that down 2-1 in the series and is coming off losses in the last 2 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-1 SU&ATS since 2008. Furthermore, if those home underdogs lost the previous game by 15 points or fewer, they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.8 points per game. Play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3.5 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -3.5 (5*) Golden State’s inexplicable struggles on the road (13-32 SU/15-30-2 ATS) this season have been well documented. They went 0-2 SU&ATS in their 2 road games versus the Lakers and were held to a poor 38.8% shooting from the floor. The oddsmakers were undeterred by the Warriors 127-100 blowout home win in Game 2 which evened the series at 1-1. The Lakers opened as a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 3 but they’ve since moved to -3.5. The Lakers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home during this 2023 postseason and won by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Lakers are also 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | 86-105 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Miami 3:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Knicks +4.0 (5*) The Miami Heat’s injury list is starting to resemble a mash unit. This is a spot where those key missing pieces or even playing injured players finally begins to catch up with them. The Heat’s Game 2 loss at New York halted a 4-game win streak. Miami has gone a dismal 3-11 SU this season after winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Knicks are coming off a 6-point home win in Game 2 to even this series up at 1-1. During the first 2 games of the series, New York had a combined +25 rebounding advantage. The Knicks defense has been terrific during the playoffs while allowing just 97.8 points per game. New York has gone a more than respectable 26-18 SU and 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) on the road this season. Furthermore, the Knicks are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an away underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a SU win by 6-points or more. Lastly, New York 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a conference underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a home SU win. Their average point-spread in those 7 contests was +3.4 and they won by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Warriors 9:00 ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Warriors -6.0 (5*) Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Lakers 117-112 in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. However, Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home immediately following a SU loss. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 1.5 to 9.0 (Golden State) has gone 26-2 ATS (92.9%) since 2021. That also includes 18-0 SU&ATS the last 18 times this exact situation has come up. The average line for the favorites in those 18 contests was -6.4 and they outscored the underdogs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Give me Golden State minus points. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7.5 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 8:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Celtics -7.5 (5*) I’m looking for this to be a monumental bounce back spot for Boston after losing Game 1 at home 119-115. The Celtics lost that contest despite shooting 58% from the field and being +10 on the boards. Nonetheless, Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home teams like Boston are 35-5 SU (.875) and 33-7 ATS (83%). If those home teams were a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, then they improved to 22-4 ATS (85%) during that identical span of time. Give me the Celtics minus the points. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -4 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:05 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Nuggets -4.0 (5*) Denver is coming off a convincing 125-107 home win over Phoenix in Game 1 and they easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite. That now makes the Nuggets 38-7 SU and 24-17-1 ATS at home this season. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs began, any NBA postseason favorite of -3.5 to 9.0 in Game 2 of a series like Denver, resulted in those favorites going an extremely profitable 20-2 ATS (90.9%). The average line during those 22 contests was -6.3 and the favorite outscored the underdogs by 16.4 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami @ New York 1:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: New York -4.0 (5*) The #8 seed Miami Heat shocked the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games to advance. Despite losing 2 key players in that series to injuries in Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, Miami was able to prevail mostly due in part to Jimmy Butler’s super-human effort in the series which saw him average 37.6 points per game, and the defensive ineptitude displayed by Milwaukee who allowed the Heat to average 124.0 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 51.9%. Miami won’t find it quite as easy on the offensive end versus a New York team which held Cleveland to 97 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games during their East Conference Quarterfinal series win. As a matter of fact, the Knicks were 2-0 at home versus Miami this season and held the Heat to a mere 98.0 points per game. Give me New York minus points. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Lakers 10:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Lakers -4.5 (5*) Memphis is coming off an impressive 116-99 home win in Game 5 to stay alive and cut their series deficit to 3-2. However, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 12.4 points per game. Conversely, the Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following a loss in their previous contest. Put that Lakers run of resiliency into perspective, they’ve only lost 2 straight games just once since 2/9/2022 (78-days). Counting the postseason, the Lakers are 4-0 SU&ATS at home versus Memphis during this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 42% or worse shooting in all 4 of those home wins and that includes 39% or less in each of the previous 3 meetings. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Hawks 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Boston is 4-0 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 5.0 or greater following a home loss in their previous game and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. The current total on this contest is 231.0, and Boston is 5-0 SU&ATS this season during away games that have a total of 230.0 or greater and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season following a win. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, round 1 Game 6 away favorites like Boston have gone an extremely profitable 13-1 SU&ATS. Furthermore, if those away favorites were coming off a SU loss in Game 5, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS with a decisive average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Additionally, teams like Boston that are playing as an away favorite of 2.0 to 8.0-points in Game 6 of a playoffs series that they lead 3-2, and they’re coming off a Game 5 home favorite SU loss, resulted in those Game 6 away favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.8 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:30 ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Bucks -11.5 (5*) We have a double-digit postseason favorite that’s down 3-1 in a playoff series. This point-spread tells me everything I need to know. This is the game where Miami truly misses the loss of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their absences in the previous game weren’t noticeable because the Heat won and Jimmy Butler turned in a playoff performance for the ages with a 58-point game. Although Butler will continue to carry the load offensively, the probability of him even coming close to his 58-point scoring night are extremely low. Nobody else in the Heat lineup at this present time has shown any indication they can be a consistent offensive contributor to help take off some of the burden currently bestowed upon “Jimmy Buckets”. I’m looking for the Bucks defensive intensity to be at a high-level tonight after going through lapses over the past 2 weeks. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Lakers +4.5 (5*) For starters, the Lakers lost their last contest on the road in Game 2 at Memphis. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 away after losing the last time they played a road game. The lakers won both games at home in this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU this season as an away underdog of 9.0 or less immediately following a home win. The average point-spread in those 6 contests was 6.5 and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Lakers have played superb defense in their 5 postseason games while holding opponents 105.8 points per contest and 42.0% shooting from the field. The average point total allowed would be better than it already was if not for 2 of those 5 games requiring overtime. Despite Memphis being the Western Conference #2 seed and the Lakers #7, the lower seeded team is the better team at this juncture of the season. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -9.5 (5*) Minnesota staved off elimination with a 114-108 home overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Timberwolves blew a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter but survived to play another day. However, playing in Denver this season has been nothing short of a hornet’s nest for Minnesota. The Nuggets have won all 4 meetings at home versus Minnesota this season and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During those 4 contests, Denver scored 124.7 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.8% from the field. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 conference home games following a loss and won by 16.7 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Denver is an outstanding 36-7 SU (.837) and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) at home this season. Any #1 seed home favorite of 9.0 or greater like Denver who are playing in Game 5 of a NBA Playoff series, and they’re coming off an away favorite SU loss in Game 4. resulted in them going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA postseason. Those favorites won by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 3:30 ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Warriors -7.5 (5*) Golden State is coming off a 114-97 home win over Sacramento to take a 2-1 series lead. Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Golden State is a perfect 7-0 SU at home versus Sacramento with an average victory margin of 12.5 points per game. Golden State is 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of -9.5 or less, and if their opponent was coming off a SU loss, they were 4-0 SU&ATS during that time frame. Sacramento scored less than 100 points for just the 5th time this season in their Game 3 loss. Furthermore, the Kings are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and were beaten by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus the points. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*) Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*) Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least. Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*) With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series. Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*) Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest. Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*) The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Nets @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: 76ers -10.0 (5*) Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn this season by going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against them and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Additionally, during those 5 wins Philadelphia shot a red-hot 44.6% from beyond the 3-points and held the Nets to 105 or fewer points during the last 3 of those meetings. Any NBA favorite like Philadelphia that’s leading in a playoff series and is facing an opponent line Brooklyn who has a season win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those playoff favorites going 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 2019. The average line in those 34 contests was 7.6 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by a decisive margin of 15.1 points per game. Give me the 76ers minus the points. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers +8 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Clippers +8.0 (5*) Since the 2018-2019 season, NBA away teams like the Clippers with a winning record versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a win percentage of .510 to .600 and they’ve played 3 games or fewer throughout the last 10 days, resulted in those teams going 26-10 SU (72.2%). The SU results take on added significance since it supports the sizable underdog in this matchup. Give me the Clippers plus the points. |
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04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Knicks +5.5 (5*) The Knicks have been a very good road team this season by going 24-17 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in those contests. Furthermore, New York has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a conference away underdog. The Knicks have also gone a noteworthy 11-2 SU this season when playing in their 6th game or fewer over the last 14 days like they’ll be doing today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Knicks won this game outright. However, I’m not going to get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Boston 3:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Boston -9.0 (5*) Boston was a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta during regular season action and won by an average of 13.3 points per game. During those 3 wins, Boston averaged 126.7 points scored per game, shot 52.2% from the field, and made 46.5% of its 3-point attempts. As a matter of fact, Boston made 20 or more 3-point shots in all 3 of those games. The Celtics are #2 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Atlanta is #20 defensively. Since game 42 of this season, Boston has gone 13-1 ATS versus teams like Atlanta who allow opponents to shoot 48% or better on the year, and with the Celtics outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Atlanta has allowed 120 points or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Boston has scored 120 points or more in 7 of its last 10. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s overtime loss at the Lakers in a game they squandered a double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Since 4/10/2022, Minnesota has gone 0-7 SU&ATS at home when playing on exactly 2 days rest. Furthermore, the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been a great home favorite this season while 8-17 ATS and 12-13 SU in that role. That also includes 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU during its last 7 as a home chalk. Oklahoma City is coming off Wednesday’s 123-118 win at New Orleans and did so as a 5.5-point underdog. The Thunder have now gone 48-25 ATS (65.8%) as an away underdog since the start of last season and that includes 21-11 ATS this year. Give me the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Oklahoma City has gone 1-2 SU versus New Orleans this season. However, both losses came by exactly 3 points. Since the 2021-2022 season began, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in their games at New Orleans. New Orleans is 7-15 ATS this season versus opponents like Oklahoma City that average 116.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, the Thunder have gone 47-25 (65.3%) ATS as a road underdog. OKC is coming off a 115-100 win over Memphis in their regular season finale. The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS (75%) this season following a win by 10 points or more in their previous contest, and they won 11 of those 20 games straight up. Give me Oklahoma City as an underdog. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +6.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Chicago +6.5 (5*) The Bulls finished the regular season strong by going 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS during their last 17 games. Chicago has also gone a very profitable 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 11 away games. Chicago has also shot 51.1% or better in 7 of its last 10 games. Give me Chicago as an underdog. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5.5 v. Heat | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 7:10 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Hawks +5.5 (5*) Atlanta failed to cover their last 2 regular season games. However, the Hawks are an extremely profitable 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games immediately following 2 consecutive ATS losses and averaged outscoring those opponents by 10.5 points per contest. Miami is coming off a 123-100 win over Orlando and they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Heat have gone 0-9 ATS and 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as a favorite of 2.5 or more following an ATS cover in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Give me the Hawks plus the points. |
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04-04-23 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Golden State 10:10 ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Oklahoma City +8.5 (5*) Golden State has been very good at home this season and will be facing a Thunder teams which has lost 5 of its last 7 games. However, OKC has gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS this season after a stretch in which they lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has gone an extremely profitable 47-24-1 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 20-10-1 ATS in that role this season. Give me Oklahoma City plus the points. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 121-103 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) Despite being 7.0 games ahead of the New Orleans in the standings and winning 15 of its last 21 games, Sacramento comes up as an underdog in tonight’s matchup. On the other hand, New Orleans is a red-hot 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. This is also a Pelicans team which has gone 25-13 SU at home. Additionally, New Orleans has gone 14-2 ATS this season when facing an opponent like Sacramento who has a 48.0% or greater field goal percentage defense and outscored them by 13.2 points per contest. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans have allowed 96 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 outing and just 100.3 points per game during that stretch. They may be catching the Kings at the right moment as they just recently clinched a playoff berth which ended a NBA longest postseason drought. There’s a high probability of a Sacramento flat spot tonight. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*) I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less. Give me Miami plus the points. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley +3 v. UAB | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State vs. UAB 9:30 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: Utah Valley State +3.0 (5*) Despite Conference USA having 2 teams (UAB, North Texas) playing in the NIT Semifinals, and another (FAU) making it to the NCAA Tournament Final 4, Utah Valley State strength of schedule for the season grades out tougher than that faced by UAB. UVSU has recorded NIT wins at New Mexico (22-12), at Colorado (18-17), and Cincinnati (23-12) to reach this point. The Wolverines have won non-conference road games this season over Oregon (21-15) and BYU (19-15) while also losing in overtime at Wake Forest (19-14). Furthermore, UVSU is #30 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. UAB has played the 301st toughest non-conference schedule. The Blazers 3 NIT wins have come over Southern Miss, Morehead State, and Vanderbilt. Not quite as strong of opponents that Utah Valley State has faced in the NIT thus far. Additionally, UAB has gone just 2-4 versus currently alive CUSA postseason teams North Texas and FAU. Give me Utah Valley State plus the points. |
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03-27-23 | Wolves +4.5 v. Kings | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Sacramento 9:40 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 99-96 win at Golden State and has now been victorious in 3 straight games. The Timberwolves are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 when playing with no rest and coming off a win. They were an underdog in all 4 of those contests while outscoring those favorites by 7.3 points per game. Sacramento is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite when facing an opponent playing with no rest and coming off a win. The Kings average point-spread in those contests was -3.5 and they were outscored by 8.8 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*) San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game. Give me San Diego State. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Kansas State | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
FAU vs. Kansas State 6:09 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: FAU +2.0 (5*) Kansas State is coming off a thrilling 98-93 overtime win versus Michigan State in Sweet 16 action in what was arguably the best game of the NCAA Tournament to date. Now the 15th ranked Wildcats are just a 2.0-point favorite over an opponent from Conference USA. That point-spread jumped right off the page at me. FAU has been very good defensively in their 3 NCAA Tournament wins while allowing only 63.3 points per game and opponents shot just a combined 38.0% from the field. Although Kansas State has faced the far more difficult schedule compared to FAU, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the Owls are still 34-3 this season which includes 33-2 in their last 35 games. Play on FAU plus the points. |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston -7.5 | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami vs. Houston 7:15 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Houston -7.5 (5*) I consider this to be a heavy number. What I mean by that is Houston seems to be a much bigger favorite than I anticipated against a very good Miami team who won the ACC regular season title. The oddsmakers are making it extremely alluring to take the underdog in this spot. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Taking Miami plus the generous number is a sucker bet in my opinion. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Alabama | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State vs. Alabama 6:30 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: San Diego State +7.5 (5*) Alabama very well might win it all. However, this is a dangerous game for them against a long athletic team like San Diego State who’s capable of beating any team in the country right now. Regardless, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset and graciously take the sizable number being given. Give me San Diego State plus the points. |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State @ Cincinnati 9:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Utah Valley State (Pick) (5*) This line jumped right off the screen at me. We have a mid-major conference team like Utah Valley State as a pick against a power conference school like Cincinnati, which is coming off impressive wins in the first 2 rounds of the NIT. The first question I asked myself is, why. Then after delving into both teams’ resumes, I was able to come up with more than satisfactory answers. At this point of the season, you would think Cincinnati would have faced a far tougher schedule than Utah Valley State. Although the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, there’s not the sizable disparity I would have thought. As a matter of fact, Utah Valley State has quality non-conference road wins this season at Colorado, New Mexico, BYU, and Oregon. They also fell in overtime at Wake Forest, who had a winning season. UVSU has shot 50% or better in 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also held opponents to 40% or worse shooting during 8 of its previous 10 games. Give me Utah Valley State. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4 | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
TCU vs. Gonzaga 9:40 PM ET Game# 851-852 Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (5*) Granted TCU comes from the Big 12 which has been widely recognized as the best conference in college basketball this season. However, the Horned Frogs started the season 13-1 and have gone an uninspiring 9-11 since. Furthermore, TCU has gone 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 immediately following a win which speaks to their inconsistent play during the season’s 2nd half. Yes, Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference that from top to bottom is much inferior to the Big 12. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs posted non-conference wins this season over NCAA Tournament teams Kent State, Kentucky, #13 Xavier, #1 Alabama, and Michigan State. As a matter of fact, 4 of those 5 opponents are in the Round of 32. The Zags also posted a pair of wins conference rival #19 St. Mary’s. They also faced #5 Texas, #11 Baylor, and #3 Purdue. So, they’re not going to be phased in the least going up against #22 TCU. Gonzaga has shot an extremely impressive 48% or better in each of their previous 14 games and 50% or better during 13 of its previous 16 contests. Give me Gonzaga minus the points. |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule. Give me FAU minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*) These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota. Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*) I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category. Give me Northwestern plus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Arkansas v. Kansas -3.5 | 72-71 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
Arkansas vs. Kansas 5:15 PM ET Game# 809-810 Play On: Kansas -3.5 (5*) Despite Thursday’s NCAA Tournament 73-63 win over Illinois, Arkansas has gone an uninspiring 4-6 throughout its last 10 games. The Razorbacks are a very good defensive teams but they have some shortcomings offensively. This Kansas team is jelling at the most opportune time of the season. They’ve gone 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS during their previous 12 games. Their only 2 losses during that stretch came versus #5 Texas. As a matter of fact, if you take away those 2 versus Texas than Kansas has shot 50.9% or better in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Jayhawks are extremely balanced while ranking #25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #7 defensively. Give me Kansas minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Furman v. San Diego State -5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Furman vs. San Diego State 12:10 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (5*) Furman has averaged 10 makes per game from 3-point territory this season. However, since Game 16, San Diego State is 9-0 SU&ATS versus opponents that average 8 or more made 3-point shots per games and won by an average of 9.7 points per contest. San Diego State is more athletic, bigger, and better defensively than Furman. The Aztecs have allowed a mere 54.8 points scored per game and held opponents to a cumulative 35.3% shooting throughout their previous 5 games. The Aztecs are #9 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Furman is #178 in that same category while facing a much softer schedule than San Diego State has faced. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET Game# 771-772 Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*) This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games. Give me Kent State plus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Grand Canyon v. Gonzaga -15 | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga 7:35 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: Gonzaga -15.0 (5*) Gonzaga played an extremely strong non-conference slate in which they faced 7 teams that are part of the NCAA Tournament field. That included wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, #13 Xavier, and #1 Alabama. They also defeated #19 St. Mary’s twice. On the other hand, Grand Canyon (24-11) has faced only 1 team this season that made the NCAA Tournament and it resulted in a 13-point loss to Nevada. They also sustained 6 losses within their own conference as well. Give me Gonzaga minus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Iona v. Connecticut -9 | 63-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Iona vs. Connecticut 4:30 PM ET Game# 775-776 Play On: Connecticut -9.0 (5*) Iona led by legendary head coach Rick Pitino is likely to be a popular upset pick in this matchup. I don’t share that sentiment. UConn is the top offensive rebounding team in the country and that doesn’t bode well for Iona who’s #272 in defensive rebounding. Additionally, Ken Pomeroy’s analytics indicate that UConn is #6 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #19 defensively in that same category. Iona has faced only 1 team all season that is in the NCAA Tournament and it was America East Champion Vermont. Conversely, the Huskies have played 12 games this season versus current NCAA Tournament teams. That includes non-conference wins over #1 Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18. Give me Connecticut minus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier -12.5 | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Kennesaw State vs. Xavier 12:40 PM ET Game# 787-788 Play On: Xavier -12.5 (5*) This will be the first ever NCAA Tournament appearance for Kennesaw State so there’s bound to be some nerves and tightness from the team as a whole. Conversely, they’ll be facing an Xavier team that #16 nationally in terms of Division 1 experience and has played a far more difficult schedule. The Musketeers will be in a sour mood after turning in a an extremely disappointing performance in a 65-51 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament Final. Xavier is #3 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage while Kennesaw State is #234 defending in 3-point shooting percentage defense. Based on each team’s overall resume, Xavier will dominate the boards in this contest as well. Giver me Xavier minus the points. |
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03-16-23 | Penn State +3.5 v. Texas A&M | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show | |
Penn State vs. Texas A&M 9:55 PM ET Game# 753-754 Play On: Penn State +3.5 (5*) #17 Texas A&M finished 2nd to Alabama in the SEC regular season standings. Much of their success was due to some staunch defensive play. Nevertheless, they have struggled offensively of late while shooting less than 40% in 6 of their last 9 games. That’s not good news when considering that Penn State has held their opponents to less than 40% shooting during 4 of its previous 6 games. Penn State will enter the NCAA Tournament with a ton of momentum after winning 5 of its last 6 and 8 of their previous 10 games. Their 2 losses came by only a combined 5 points. One of those defeats came by 2 versus #3 Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament Championship game. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog and that includes winning 6 of those contests straight up. The great equalizer for a College Basketball underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Well, Penn State is #9 nationally when it comes to 3-point shooting percentage. Give me Penn State plus the points. |
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03-16-23 | UL - Lafayette v. Tennessee -11 | 55-58 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette vs. Tennessee 9:40 PM ET Game# 741-742 Play On: Tennessee -11.0 (5*) UL-Lafayette owns an impressive 27-5 record and is currently on a 5-game win streak. However, there’s no team in the Sun Belt Conference they can pressure you defensively like the Tennessee Volunteers can do. Tennessee is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers aren’t a good shooting team but they’re relentless on the offensive glass having pulled in 36.8% of its missed shots and wearing teams down with consecutive possessions. The overall athleticism on both ends of the floor will take its toll on the Rajun Cajuns in the 2nd half and enable them to pull away for a comfortable win. Give me Tennessee minus the points. |
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03-16-23 | Boise State +1.5 v. Northwestern | 67-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
Boise State vs. Northwestern 7:35 PM ET Game# 765-766 Play On: Boise State +1.5 (5*) Boise State is coming off a loss in the Mountain West Conference Semifinal versus Utah State. The Broncos are 7-1 SU this season following a loss and that includes 5-0 in their previous 5. The Boncos played in an underrated conference that has 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. They also posted impressive non-conference wins over #17 Texas A&M by 15, Colorado by 13, and Washington State by 10. The latter 2 teams are in the NIT field. Northwestern has lost 4 of its last 5 games. Give me Boise State. |
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03-16-23 | Oral Roberts +6.5 v. Duke | 51-74 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
Oral Roberts vs. Duke 7:10 PM ET Game# 781-782 Play On: Oral Roberts +6.5 (5*) Duke won the ACC Tournament will enter “The Big Dance” on a 9-game win streak. However, I’m not sold as the ACC this season and many experts share my opinion in that regard. Additionally, the Blue Devils non-conference schedule ranks #102 with regards to degree of difficulty. Oral Roberts enters the NCAA Tournament with a 30-4 record and that includes 27-1 in their last 28 games. They’ve also faced the 13th toughest non-conference schedule in College Basketball. As a matter of fact, 3 of those defeats came at #19 Missouri, at #2 Houston, and at Utah State who received an NCAA Tournament at large bid. They also defeated NCAA Tournament teams Texas Southern by 18 and Liberty by 14. This line tells me all I need to know. Mighty Duke who is sizzling hot right now is only a 6.5-point favorite against the Summit League champion. If it looks too good to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. This is a textbook example of such. Give me Oral Roberts plus the points. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*) Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate. San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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03-16-23 | Furman +6.5 v. Virginia | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
Furman vs. Virginia 12:40 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: Furman +6.5 (5*) #14 Virginia advanced to the ACC Championship Game where they fell to the red-hot Duke Blue Devils. Yet, here they are as just a 6.0-point favorite versus an unranked Southern Conference champion Furman Paladins. The oddsmakers are certainly making it very appealing to take the single-digit favorite in this matchup. However, Furman is 27-7 on the season which includes 14-1 in their last 15 games. The Paladins average 10 made 3-point shots per game and are #1 nationally in 2-point shooting percentage (59.1%). Give me Furman plus the points. |
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03-15-23 | Utah Valley +5.5 v. New Mexico | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State @ New Mexico 10:00 PM ET Game# 717-718 Play On: Utah Valley State +5.5 (5*) New Mexico got off to an 18-2 start to the season. However, the Lobos went 4-9 since that time. Rick Pitino Jr. coached teams faltering in the 2nd half of a season have become an all too familiar trend. Utah Valley State (25-8) won’t be in awe of stepping up in class. The Wolverines have posted wins at BYU (19-15) and Oregon this season. They also lost in overtime at Wake Forest (19-14). UVSU is #39 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and #3 in blocked shot percentage. Give me Utah Valley State plus the points. |
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03-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Cincinnati 9:00 PM ET Game# 715-716 Play On: Cincinnati -5.0 (5*) Virginia Tech is a terrible 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season. As a matter of fact, their only road wins came over Notre Dame and Louisville who were a combined 15-49 this season which also includes 5-35 in ACC action. The Hokies started the season 11-1 and since have gone 8-13. Cincinnati has gone 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS at home this season. Their only home losses came versus #2 Houston, #13 Xavier, and #24 Memphis. Give me Cincinnati minus the points. |
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03-11-23 | Arizona +1.5 v. UCLA | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Arizona vs. UCLA 10:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Arizona +1.5 (5*) This is a game in which UCLA will sorely miss the contributions of guard Jaylen Clark who recently was ruled out for the season due to an Achilles injury. Clark was averaging 13.0 points and 6.0 rebounds per game on the season. UCLA is currently on a 12-game win streak in which they went a profitable 8-3-1 ATS. However, they’re just a 1.0-point favorite in the PAC-12 title game versus an Arizona team in which they finished regular season action 4.0 games ahead of in the conference standings. Give me Arizona. |
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03-11-23 | Duke -3 v. Virginia | 59-49 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Duke vs. Virginia 8:30 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*) Virginia is the higher seed and ranked team in this matchup. However, Duke is the small favorite which speaks volumes to me. Duke is winners of 8 straight and is unequivocally playing its best basketball of the season at the most opportune time. As a matter of fact, the last Blue Devils loss was 69-62 at Virginia on 2/11. Duke knocked off 2 NCAA Tournament bound teams in #14 Miami (25-7) and Pittsburgh (22-11) in the first 2 rounds of this ACC Tournament. Give me Duke minus the points. |
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03-11-23 | Marist v. Iona -14.5 | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Marist vs. Iona 7:30 PM ET Game# 629-630 Play On: Iona -14.5 (5*) Marist entered the MAAC Tournament with a 10-19 record. Somehow, they’ve managed to win 3-games in 3 days to earn a berth in the Conference Championship Game. There’s little chance that Iona will take them lightly with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line and a seasoned head coach like Rick Pitino. Iona won the 2 regular season matchups versus Marist by 19 and 27 points. Iona is currently on a 13-game win streak and went 9-45 ATS in those contests. That includes 6-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite during that stretch. Give me Iona minus the points. |