03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 |
Top |
133-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
|
03-24-24 |
Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston |
Top |
95-100 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.
Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.
It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.
The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.
The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.
|
03-23-24 |
Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton |
Top |
73-86 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.
Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.
This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.
Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.
The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.
|
03-22-24 |
Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 |
Top |
77-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.
|
03-21-24 |
NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
80-67 |
Loss |
-120 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.
Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.
The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.
|
03-20-24 |
Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
76-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 18 m |
Show
|
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.
"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."
Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.
The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.
The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.
|
03-18-24 |
Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
108-103 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line.
Cleveland is better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have lost five fewer games and rank in the top-five defensively. Cleveland gives up an average of 109.6 points per game. Indiana ranks second-to-last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers surrender an average of nearly 12 more points per game than the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has covered five of the last six times it has been an underdog. During their last seven games, the Cavaliers have beaten three teams with better records than Indiana - the Celtics, Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans.
So I find this line out of whack.
|
03-17-24 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.
But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.
The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.
Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.
Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.
|
03-14-24 |
Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 33 m |
Show
|
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.
The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.
Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.
Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.
|
03-13-24 |
Bulls +4 v. Pacers |
Top |
132-129 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 10 m |
Show
|
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday.
But now's the time to sell high on the Pacers as they return home to host the Bulls playing without rest following that 2-0 road trip. It's the Pacers' first home game in six days and just their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since Feb. 28.
Oh, yes, the Pacers are 1-8 the past nine times when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've lost to far worse teams than the Bulls during this span when playing without rest.
The Bulls have won eight of their last 11 road games with two of those defeats occurring to the Cavaliers by three points and to the Magic in overtime.
There's a negative perception of the Bulls because Chicago is missing Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Patrick William. But the Bulls still have star power with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with emerging Coby White, who has quietly averaged 19.6 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game.
|
03-11-24 |
Warriors -4 v. Spurs |
Top |
112-102 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 42 m |
Show
|
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer.
I know that going in. But it doesn't matter. I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Spurs in this rapid revenge spot.
The Spurs stunned the totally flat Warriors, 126-113, at San Francisco this past Saturday as 12 1/2-point underdogs. Curry didn't play and he remains out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have the rest of their stars back in action, though, including Klay Thompson and Chris Paul.
Golden State is holding onto the 10th playoff spot in the West, giving it a place in the play-in tournament. The Warriors, however, can't afford to take the 14-50 Spurs lightly. Golden State's next two games are on the road against the Mavericks and resurgent Lakers, who are off home victories against the Timberwolves and Bucks.
The Warriors are 8-1 SU and ATS during their past nine road games with the only defeat in this span coming to the Celtics. They've defeated the Spurs four straight times in San Antonio. The Spurs haven't been home in eight days. So their concentration level could be off and their motivation down after having just upset the Warriors.
|
03-09-24 |
Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 20 m |
Show
|
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread.
The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country with a 4-27 record. Their last victory was on Dec. 21. They are an embarrassing 0-19 in the Big West Conference.
San Diego is 20-11 and 14-5 in the Big West, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, the Tritons are ineligible to play in the conference tournament, NCAA Tournament and NIT. That's because they transitioned from Division II to Division I when they joined the Big West in 2020. There is a four-year transition period before the team can be eligible to play in those postseason tournaments. This is the final year the Tritons have to wait.
So look for San Diego to come out strong with this being its final game. The Tritons were upset by Cal-Davis at home in their previous game this past Thursday. They certainly don't want to close their season with another disappointing performance. They should come out focused and they have the perfect patsy to make amends.
The overmatched Mustangs just want their horrendous season to close. They are a terrible defensive team and the sixth-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging a puny 62.9 points a game. San Diego averages nearly 15 more points per game than the Mustangs.
|
03-06-24 |
Bucks v. Warriors -4 |
Top |
90-125 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 2 m |
Show
|
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks.
The Warriors could be back to full strength and are off an utterly humiliating, 140-88, nationally televised road loss to the Celtics this past Sunday afternoon.
I want Golden State going for me at home following that embarrassment.
The Bucks, by contrast, are fat and happy having defeated the Clippers, 113-106, at home this past Monday despite not having superstar Antetokounmpo. He missed that game due to Achilles soreness, which has rendered him questionable for this game.
Despite the loss to the Celtics, the Warriors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. They are expected to get back Brandin Podziemski and Andrew Wiggins, who had missed the past four games because of a personal matter. Wiggins is the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer and an ace defender. Podziemski is Golden State's fifth-leading scorer and is second on the team in rebounds per game.
Not only could the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo, but they are down their third-best player, Khris Middleton. He's out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have won and covered against the Bucks at home each of the past three seasons.
|
03-03-24 |
Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
88-140 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball.
Golden State has won eight consecutive road games. The Warriors are 6-1 in their past seven overall games. Only once in their last 20 games have the Warriors been defeated by more than nine points.
The Warriors are used to being on center stage and they won't be intimidated by the Celtics, who they beat in overtime when they played them earlier this season at home.
"...We've just gotten healthy and found a groove," Warriors coach Steve Kerr was quoted as saying. "... It took us a while, frankly, just to figure out our team. We were leaning on what we were two years ago when we won the championship early in the season and that wasn't working. ... We've got a good bit of momentum going and we're just going to try and keep it going.''
This is a nationally televised game (ABC) and should have playoff-type intensity.
|
03-01-24 |
Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist |
Top |
55-58 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
|
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team.
Fairfield leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) with a 12-5 mark. Marist is in fourth place with a 10-6 mark. The Red Foxes have three fewer overall victories than Fairfield.
Marist lost, 69-60, to Saint Peter's as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs in its last game this past Sunday. Fairfield defeated Saint Peter's, 64-62, on the road and whipped them, 76-67, at home.
The Staggs also rolled past Marist, 82-61, as short home favorites back on Jan. 7. Fairfield has the healthier frontcourt and holds a strong backcourt edge on the Red Foxes. The Staggs have the top guard depth in the MAAC. They forced 18 turnovers against Marist in the first game. That wasn't unusual. Marist has a turnover problem and the Staggs' guards are excellent defenders.
Marist has a stingy defense that is aided by its offense's half-court slow, deliberate style. However, Fairfield averages 12 points more per game and ranks 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Caleb Fields, one of four good guards Fairfield has, burned the Red Foxes for 33 points while hitting 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first meeting.
The Staggs are in excellent current form, too, winning six of their last seven games, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games. The Staggs have won outright five of the last six times they've been underdogs. Marist has a losing ATS record the past nine times it has been favored.
Fairfield has defeated Marist each of the previous five seasons on the road. This includes a 70-61 away win last year.
|
02-29-24 |
Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
131-134 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 45 m |
Show
|
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter.
The bad news for the Lakers is they have a game today. Yes, the opponent is the Wizards, who have lost 11 of 13 games since replacing Wes Unseld Jr. with interim coach Bran Keefe.
But the Wizards are rested, play at the fastest tempo in the NBA and are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
The Lakers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and have failed to cover three of the past four times when favored. The Lakers are down several big men on their rotation with Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood both out. James played 37 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 36 minutes. It wouldn't shock if either was rested, or had their minutes reduced tonight.
This is a huge spot for former Laker Kyle Kuzman, who has emerged as arguably the best player on the Wizards. Backed by Kuzman, look for the Wizards to be motivated for this matchup after being idle yesterday. The spot sets up nicely for Washington.
|
02-27-24 |
Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 58 m |
Show
|
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada.
The Wolf Pack are a tough matchup for Colorado State. That was proven in the first game between these teams on Jan. 24. The Wolf Pack won, 77-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. That was the most points the Rams allowed in regulation during their last 19 games.
Nevada took advantage of its height advantage to make 56.8 percent of its shots inside the paint.
The Rams are heavily reliant upon point guard Isaiah Stevens. But Stevens had trouble against the Wolf Pack's 38th-ranked defense making only four-of-16 shots from the field. Nevada held Colorado State to just 26.1 percent from 3-point range as the Rams missed 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. This wasn't a fluke as the Wolf Pack have some of the Mountain West Conference best perimeter defenders in Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster and Kenan Blackshear. They are a big reason why the Wolf Pack give up just 66.3 points a game.
The Wolf Pack have held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. Discount an 83-82 loss to New Mexico and Nevada is surrendering an average of only 61.6 points in its last six games.
|
02-25-24 |
Nuggets v. Warriors +1 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets.
Look for the Warriors to continue their momentum against the defending world champion Nuggets.
Denver also is 2-0 coming out of All-Star break. However, the Nuggets' victories were against two patsies - the Wizards and Trail Blazers. Denver had gone 0-3 in its three previous games with a pair of losses to the Kings and one to the Bucks.
Now the Nuggets face another real opponent. The Warriors should be extremely motivated. Not just because they have triple revenge having gone 0-3 to the Nuggets this season losing those games by an average of four points. But because they are playing their best ball, are home and need to prove they can beat the Nuggets.
Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets. Murray, Denver's second-leading scorer, missed the Nuggets' last game because of shin splints.
|
02-24-24 |
Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
79-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.
Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.
I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.
Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.
|
02-22-24 |
Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
71-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 53 m |
Show
|
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday.
The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State.
I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt.
Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage.
Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.
|
02-21-24 |
UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force |
Top |
72-43 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.
The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels.
Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak.
The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense.
Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.
|
02-20-24 |
Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada |
Top |
58-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.
Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.
The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.
|
02-20-24 |
Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Kings |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
26 h 44 m |
Show
|
Having gone just 9-9-1-5 in LA, the Kings have burned the most money at home of any team in the NHL.
Don't be shocked if the Kings fail to win at home again even against Columbus. This is a horrendous situational spot for Los Angeles.
The Kings returned to Southern California after winning their last three games of a four-game road trip. This marks their fifth game in eight days and first in the Pacific time zone since Feb. 10.
Contrast this with the Blue Jackets, who are in action for only the third time in 10 days. They last played this past Saturday at San Jose where they nipped the Sharks, 4-3.
Columbus has the fourth-fewest points in the NHL. So the Kings can't help but feel cocky and confident. However, if you give the Blue Jackets plus 1 1/2 goals, they would be 12-8 in their last 20 games.
|
02-19-24 |
Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 43 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.
So I'm on the Cyclones.
Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.
The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.
Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.
|
02-18-24 |
Canisius -2.5 v. Siena |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country.
The Golden Griffins average 71.8 points a game. That's nearly 12 points more per game than the Saints.
Siena is averaging 60.1 points. That miniscule average shrinks even more to 54.2 points in its last eight games.
The Saints rank 360th in scoring, 354th in free throw accuracy, 348th in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point percent.
Siena's below-average defense can't make up for its lack of offense. The Saints rank 278th defensively allowing 75.2 points a game. Canisius defeated Siena, 67-63, on Jan. 12. The Saints have gotten worse since then losing eight of their last nine games.
|
02-17-24 |
Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois |
Top |
69-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 14 m |
Show
|
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday.
Indiana State coach Josh Schertz ripped his team following that defeat calling them soft and lacking toughness.
I'm expecting the Sycamores to be fired-up and to bury Southern Illinois even if Jayson Kent, their leading rebounder, can't play.
Southern Illinois was no match for Indiana State when the teams met earlier this season on Nov. 28. The Sycamores buried the Salukis, 77-48. Southern Illinois ranks 239th in defensive field goal percentage. The Salukis have allowed their past three opponents to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. Indiana State is the third-best shooting team in the country and ranks eighth in points per game at 84.9.
Despite their Top 25 ranking, Indiana State is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores lead Drake by just one game in the Missouri Valley Conference.
|
02-16-24 |
Brown v. Princeton -12.5 |
Top |
63-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.
The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.
Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.
Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.
Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.
|
02-15-24 |
Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 |
Top |
60-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.
The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.
Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.
Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.
|
02-14-24 |
Clippers +4.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
130-125 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
No need to overthink. The Clippers are 35-17, one of the three best teams in the Western Conference along with the Timberwolves and Thunder. The Clippers' goal is to finish with the best record in the NBA. That's a lofty goal, but attainable for a team this good.
Golden State is 26-25. The Warriors are off an emotional road victory against the Jazz this past Monday. They play at Utah again on Thursday to close out the first half of their season. It's a game that was rescheduled following the untimely death of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojevic from a heart attack. So returning home for this one game against the Clippers sandwiched in between trips to Utah is an usual and tough spot for the Warriors. Their concentration level may be hindered.
There's also a physical fatigue to go with the mental stress as this marks the Warriors' fifth game in eight days.
Unlike the Warriors, the Clippers won't play again until after the All-Star break. Also unlike the Warriors, the Clippers are off a huge, disappointing loss. They were embarrassed at home by the Timberwolves, 121-100, this past Monday. That defeat dropped the Clippers 1 1/2 games behind the Timberwolves for best record in the Western Conference.
Even with that loss to Minnesota, the Clippers still are 10-3 in their past 13 games. They won't lack motivation for this matchup and should be fully focused and engaged.
The Clippers have both a top-10 offense and defense. They rank first in 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors are below average defensively ranking 19th.
|
02-13-24 |
Wolves v. Blazers +8.5 |
Top |
121-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in.
Minnesota is fat and happy off an impressive, 121-100, road victory against the Clippers last night. The Timberwolves can't be faulted if they take the lowly Trail Blazers, a team they buried, 116-93, at home on Jan. 12, not very seriously.
Portland, though, is well-rested and off a tremendous defensive performance. The Trail Blazers held New Orleans to 93 points in their last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Pelicans' season average. However, the Trail Blazers didn't have Simons, their top player and leading scorer, so they couldn't muster up enough offense to win.
Simons is expected to return today from his left ankle sprain. That's huge. It's an extra bonus if Scott Henderson also can play for Portland. He's questionable with a foot sprain.
Portland has been home for eight days, idle for the past two full days. Minnesota is playing its fourth consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have a losing ATS mark when playing in the second of back-to-back days.
The Trail Blazers are 4-3 in their last seven home games with straight-up upset victories against the Bucks, 76ers, Pacers and Nets during this span.
When the Timberwolves rolled past the Trail Blazers in the team's first meeting, Portland was at the tail end of a seven-game road trip and had just played the Thunder the previous night. Now it's the Timberwolves who have a fatigue rating.
Note, too, the teams meet again in Portland on Thursday. So the Timberwolves may hold back some things knowing they have to play this same opponent in their next game.
|
02-13-24 |
Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 |
Top |
59-75 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.
Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.
That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.
The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.
Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.
|
02-12-24 |
Bulls +4 v. Hawks |
Top |
136-126 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games.
The Hawks give up 123.7 points a game. That ranks second-to-last in the NBA. The Bulls rate 11th defensively, allowing 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.
Atlanta has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 17-36 (32 percent) ATS. The Hawks are very bad in this role going 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points. It's also Atlanta's third game in four days.
|
02-09-24 |
Dayton -1.5 v. VCU |
Top |
47-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.
It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.
VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.
The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.
|
02-08-24 |
Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 |
Top |
114-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. Sometimes it's dangerous to back a team playing their first home game following a lengthy road trip. That certainly was the case with the Clippers last night. They lost to the Pelicans by 11 points as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The Clippers had been playing well, too.
But this is a different case and much different situation. The Clippers only had one day of rest after returning to Los Angeles. The Lakers concluded their road swing this past Monday giving them two full days of rest and preparation.
This also is the Lakers' biggest game of the season and it isn't just because they're playing the defending world champion Nuggets.
It's a special night because the Lakers organization will be honoring the late Kobe Bryant before the game unveiling a statue of him. The game is going to be heavily attended with many dignitaries. It is being shown nationally on TNT.
"Win one for Kobe,'' will be the Lakers' motto. So I'm expecting maximum motivation and effort.
The Nuggets are off back-to-back home victories against the 15-35 Trail Blazers. Not exactly a worthy opponent. Denver has lost in its two previous road games, falling to the Thunder and getting blown out by the Knicks.
|
02-07-24 |
Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers.
The Clippers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday after finishing a seven-game, 11-day road trip with a victory against the Hawks in Atlanta this past Monday night. There were 293 points scored in the Clippers' crazy, 149-144, victory against the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden each played more than 37 minutes in that game.
Now the Clippers have to get used to being home having played in a different arena for the past seven games. LA has to be feeling good having gone 6-1 on its road trip. The Clippers are not only in a letdown spot, but their concentration could be off having been gone for so long. They also might be dealing with dead legs in action for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days.
New Orleans is playing well, too, riding a three-game win streak. The Pelicans don't have nearly the fatigue factor LA does. This is just the Pelicans' second game in five days.
The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The road team has won each of the first two games. Attendance could be less than normal for the Clippers because of the heavy rains that hit southern California.
|
02-06-24 |
Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 |
Top |
63-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.
Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.
The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.
Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.
|
02-04-24 |
Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 |
Top |
108-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude. Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season. The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court.
|
02-03-24 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 |
Top |
103-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.
Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.
The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.
|
02-02-24 |
Magic +8 v. Wolves |
Top |
108-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.
The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.
Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average.
|
01-31-24 |
Mavs +14 v. Wolves |
Top |
87-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando. The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games. It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder.
|
01-30-24 |
San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 |
Top |
71-79 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 18 m |
Show
|
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game.
The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is.
The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference.
San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.
|
01-27-24 |
Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.
But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.
Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.
The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.
|
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 55 m |
Show
|
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.
The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.
Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.
|
01-24-24 |
Hawks v. Warriors -7 |
Top |
112-134 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.
The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.
Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.
Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.
Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).
The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.
While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.
|
01-23-24 |
Houston v. BYU +2.5 |
Top |
75-68 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.
BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.
The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.
|
01-22-24 |
Cavs +1.5 v. Magic |
Top |
126-99 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.
The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.
This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.
The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.
|
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers -9.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points.
I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury.
It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks.
The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way.
|
01-20-24 |
Purdue v. Iowa +7 |
Top |
84-70 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.
This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.
Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.
|
01-19-24 |
Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's |
Top |
48-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.
Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.
The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.
The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.
If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.
|
01-18-24 |
Troy State v. South Alabama |
Top |
71-74 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.
The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt.
Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd.
Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th.
So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game.
|
01-17-24 |
Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 |
Top |
72-68 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.
Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.
The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.
The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.
I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.
|
01-16-24 |
Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 |
Top |
83-87 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 25 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.
This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.
The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.
|
01-15-24 |
Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs |
Top |
9-32 |
Loss |
-120 |
154 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing.
|
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys -7 |
Top |
48-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.
Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.
Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.
The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.
Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.
The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.
|
01-12-24 |
Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 |
Top |
62-74 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 7 m |
Show
|
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now.
Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.
But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin.
Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.
The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss.
The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.
|
01-11-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
77-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.
Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.
Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one.
|
01-10-24 |
The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 |
Top |
68-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury.
The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday.
Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years.
Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points.
Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman.
|
01-09-24 |
Raptors v. Lakers -5 |
Top |
131-132 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 27 m |
Show
|
Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight.
The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham.
I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here.
Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days.
The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games.
|
01-07-24 |
Eagles v. Giants +5 |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
136 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.
Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.
But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.
New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.
The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.
|
01-06-24 |
Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 7 m |
Show
|
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.
And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.
The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.
BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.
Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.
Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.
Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.
|
01-05-24 |
Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets |
Top |
122-95 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch called out his team for not playing harder and with not enough purpose. I believe the Timberwolves show up here with a lot of determination and motivation.
Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defense. The one team ahead of the Rockets is Minnesota. The Timberwolves give up the fewest points per game and rank first, too, in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions.
The Rockets are 2-0 in their last two games. Those victories have been against the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA, and to the sagging Nets, who have lost five in a row. The Rockets had lost their previous three games - all when stepping up in class with losses to the 76ers, Suns and Pacers. This is a step-up-in-class game for Houston.
|
01-03-24 |
Pistons +9 v. Jazz |
Top |
148-154 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
Utah is fat and happy after getting satisfying revenge on Dallas this past Monday. The Jazz whipped the Mavericks, 127-90, after having lost to the Mavericks by 50 points in their previous matchup on Dec. 6. The Pistons have their own short revenge here. The Jazz defeated the Pistons, 119-111, as 2 1/2-point road favorites on Dec. 21. Since then the Pistons halted an NBA record-tying 28-game losing streak by edging the Raptors. Following that victory, the Pistons had their own letdown losing to the Rockets, 136-113, on the road two days ago. The Pistons should be ready again now. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks shouldn't lack motivation having formerly played for the Jazz. This is just the second time since Dec. 2 that Utah is favored. It's also the most points Utah is laying all season.
|
12-31-23 |
Raiders v. Colts -3.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-108 |
45 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen.
The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders.
Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons.
The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable.
|
12-30-23 |
Lions v. Cowboys -6 |
Top |
19-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
101 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.
The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss. Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.
The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.
Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.
Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.
There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.
|
12-30-23 |
Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 |
Top |
15-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 12 m |
Show
|
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season.
Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career.
Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions.
Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle.
|
12-29-23 |
Memphis +11 v. Iowa State |
Top |
36-26 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.
|
12-28-23 |
NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State |
Top |
19-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 57 m |
Show
|
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.
The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.
I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.
Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.
Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.
|
12-26-23 |
Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit.
Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion.
Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots.
So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten.
Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season?
I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS.
The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10.
Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10.
The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting.
Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded.
|
12-25-23 |
Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
33-19 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 45 m |
Show
|
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.
So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.
This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.
My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.
Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.
Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.
|
12-21-23 |
Saints v. Rams -4 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
|
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago.
Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks.
The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best.
|
12-20-23 |
Hawks v. Rockets -3 |
Top |
134-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home.
The Rockets are the far superior defensive team, ranking in the top-three in a number of major categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Hawks give up an average of 15 more points per game than Houston.
Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games, losing those games by an average of 11 points. The Hawks also are banged-up with Jalen Johnson out and Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable with an ankle injury.
|
12-18-23 |
Nets -3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
108-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS.
Brooklyn is superior to Utah in all facets. The Nets are looking to conclude their five-game West Coast trip with a victory after consecutive losses to the Warriors and Nuggets. No shame in losing to those two opponents on the road. There would be shame, though, if they lost to the Jazz.
The Jazz are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Two of Utah's past three victories have occurred against the Trail Blazers, one in overtime. Portland is 6-19.
Utah is down some of its firepower with Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and John Collins all sidelined. Clarkson and George are out while Collins is questionable due to illness.
|
12-17-23 |
Chiefs -8 v. Patriots |
Top |
27-17 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.
The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.
The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.
New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.
This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.
|
12-14-23 |
Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
21-63 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival.
|
12-13-23 |
Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic |
Top |
60-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 42 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.
But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.
I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.
The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.
|
12-12-23 |
Lakers v. Mavs +2 |
Top |
125-127 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again.
This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas.
The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games.
Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor.
|
12-10-23 |
Jaguars v. Browns -3 |
Top |
27-31 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 20 m |
Show
|
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk. The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1. If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests. Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
|
12-08-23 |
Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 |
Top |
136-138 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.
The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.
Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.
Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.
The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.
|
12-06-23 |
Nets +4 v. Hawks |
Top |
114-113 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.
The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.
Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.
This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.
|
12-05-23 |
Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 |
Top |
57-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 36 m |
Show
|
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.
The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.
Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.
|
12-05-23 |
Suns +2 v. Lakers |
Top |
103-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.
The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.
So why do I like the underdog Suns?
I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.
Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.
|
12-04-23 |
Pelicans +4.5 v. Kings |
Top |
127-117 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.
There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.
The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.
The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.
The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.
|
12-03-23 |
49ers -3 v. Eagles |
Top |
42-19 |
Win
|
100 |
63 h 12 m |
Show
|
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.
I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.
Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.
San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.
The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.
|
12-02-23 |
Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 |
Top |
26-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.
Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.
So I'll take this many points given these factors.
The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.
Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.
|
11-30-23 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 |
Top |
35-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.
The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.
Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.
I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
|
11-29-23 |
Davidson +3 v. Charlotte |
Top |
85-81 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.
Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.
Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.
This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.
Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.
Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.
|
11-27-23 |
North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are.
I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates.
|
11-25-23 |
Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 9 m |
Show
|
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.
What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.
Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week.
|
11-24-23 |
Air Force v. Boise State -6 |
Top |
19-27 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 54 m |
Show
|
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time.
The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos.
Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead.
The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites.
|
11-23-23 |
Packers v. Lions -7.5 |
Top |
29-22 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.
After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.
As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.
The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.
Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.
It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.
|
11-22-23 |
New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice |
Top |
90-56 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.
The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.
New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.
|
11-21-23 |
Blazers +13 v. Suns |
Top |
107-120 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.
I get that.
But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points.
Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup.
The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing.
The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.
|
11-20-23 |
Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 |
Top |
21-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
56 h 52 m |
Show
|
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense.
It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense.
The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense.
Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert.
Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role.
|
11-19-23 |
Chargers -3 v. Packers |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
124 h 42 m |
Show
|
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers.
Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home.
Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday.
Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.
The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.
|
11-17-23 |
Pistons +9 v. Cavs |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.
But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.
The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.
Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.
|
11-14-23 |
Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 |
Top |
54-93 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.
The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.
The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.
This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.
|
11-12-23 |
Commanders v. Seahawks -6 |
Top |
26-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
89 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.
Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.
Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.
Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.
Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.
Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.
|
11-11-23 |
Texas -10.5 v. TCU |
Top |
29-26 |
Loss |
-120 |
43 h 11 m |
Show
|
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime.
The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense.
TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed.
The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation.
|
11-09-23 |
Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
124-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
|
Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.
The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.
The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.
|
11-08-23 |
Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 |
Top |
0-19 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 34 m |
Show
|
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.
Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.
The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.
So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.
Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.
Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.
The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.
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