Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover ALL Sports Top Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-05-21	Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5	Top	41-38	Win	100	56 h 23 m	Show
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
09-04-21	Baylor -14 v. Texas State	Top	29-20	Loss	-105	18 h 13 m	Show
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests.
09-02-21	Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5	Top	31-36	Loss	-107	22 h 24 m	Show
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
09-01-21	UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5	Top	31-0	Loss	-105	8 h 48 m	Show
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
08-31-21	Liberty v. Lynx -9	Top	66-74	Loss	-108	10 h 20 m	Show
The Liberty is at low ebb with four straight losses and non-covers - all at home. Now New York takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 15. The Lynx defeated the Liberty, 88-78, at home when New York last was on the road, which was 16 days ago. I'm expecting another double-digit victory from the Lynx against the Liberty. Minnesota has covered its last four homes and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against New York. The Liberty have lost seven of their past eight games and have been bad in this role going 9-20 ATS as a road 'dog.
08-23-21	Jaguars v. Saints -4	Top	21-23	Loss	-110	21 h 23 m	Show
The Saints had a shot to end the Ravens' preseason win streak, which has reached an NFL record-tying 19 consecutive victories, but fell, 17-14, last week. The Sains turned the ball over six times yet still only lost by three points to Baltimore. Saints coach Sean Payton was not happy with the loss, nor his team's performance. The Saints are one of those few teams who still haven't decided on a starting QB. That means big minutes for Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as they battle it out. They'll be operating against a weak Jacksonville defense that surrendered nearly 250 yards against the Browns backups during the first half last week. The Jaguars defense proved vulnerable to screen passes. The Saints are a strong screen pass team. Cleveland backups also handled Jacksonville's offensive line recording four sacks. The Jaguars gave up 44 sacks last season and will be without two and possibly three starting offensive linemen against the Saints. Center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell are out and right guard A.J. Cann is questionable due to a positive COVID-19 test. The Saints can generate a strong pass rush playing on turf at home in an extremely loud indoor setting against a banged-up offensive line. So Urban Meyer would be wise to limit Trevor Lawrence's playing time.
08-22-21	Giants +5 v. Browns	Top	13-17	Win	100	31 h 31 m	Show
The Browns don't care about this game. Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski will be playing very few of his starters and the ones who get into the game will see little action. The Giants don't have that luxury. While Saquon Barkley and Kenney Golladay aren't going to play, Giants QB's will have a number of other weapons plus playing time from their starting offensive line. The Browns' best defensive backs are not healthy and won't be playing. The edge is going to be with the Giants as far as number of starters playing. That's a big edge especially when Stefanski's top priority isn't winning the game. The teams have conducted scrimmages and practices against each other the past four days. During this time, Giants wide receiver Sterling Shephard has been a star against Cleveland's decimated secondary. The person who could take this game the most personally is Giants safety Jabrill Peppers, who played for the Browns before coming to New York. He was extremely animated during the scrimmages.
08-16-21	Mets v. Giants -1.5	Top	5-7	Win	110	19 h 24 m	Show
The Mets just got swept by the Dodgers at home and now they have to fly cross-country after having played in the ESPN Sunday night game. Major League Baseball certainly didn't do the Mets a favor here with this scheduling spot. It's the first time the Mets have been on the West Coast - a three hour time difference for them - since June 6. Throw in a late night/early morning long flight and I don't see how the Mets can be sharp going against a Giants team that is a dominant 40-18 at home. The Mets are 23-35 on the road. They are hurting in the middle infield with Javier Baez and Franscico Lindor both out. New York also is facing Kevin Gausman, who has been the Giants' best pitcher with an 11-5 record and 2.29 ERA. Gausman is back in strong form, too, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets average the second-fewest runs per game in the majors. Rich Hill is expected to get the start for the Mets, but New York is a fade no matter who starts. Hill has a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are positioned well for this game. They rested catcher Buster Posey Sunday while also limiting the playing time of Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria. This is a real kill spot for the Giants so I'm going to lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line and turn a huge lay price into a plus price.
08-14-21	Texans v. Packers -3	Top	26-7	Loss	-108	61 h 42 m	Show
Much is being made of how untested Jordan Love is. But compared to Houston rookie QB Davis Mills, Love is Aaron Rodgers. Love and Mills figure to be the key storylines in the Texans-Packers Week 1 preseason game. Both figure to play a lot in this game. Aaron Rodgers isn't playing. Deshaun Watson may not even make the trip to Green Bay. He's certainly not playing. Watson has been nothing but a huge distraction during the Texans' training camp with trade rumors swirling around him and lawsuits from 22 women. Tyrod Taylor is Houston's starting QB. The Texans know what he can do. So does every other team in the NFL. They all know Taylor is a journeyman, who has gotten more conservative with each season. The Chargers are still counting their blessing for the inept team doctor who accidentally punctured Taylor's lung allowing Justin Herbert to become their starting quarterback last year. Taylor hasn't looked good during training camp. Mills has looked downright terrible. Mills has had trouble picking up the speed of the NFL game. He threw four interceptions during one red zone-focused practice last week. Not helping Mills is the Texans' lack of talent and overhauled roster with some 50 new players. Houston is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Green Bay's defense should be way ahead of Houston's offense. It remains to be seen if Love will be a playmaker, or a checkdown, game-manager type. But the Packers do have a deep set of receivers and the Texans have a weak defense especially in the secondary. Kurt Benkert is Green Bay's third-string QB and figures to see action, too. Benkert has three NFL seasons of experience. He's shown enough for the Packers to cut Blake Bortles, who would not have been a bad third-string quarterback. Even though this is a preseason game where randomness is increased, there's still no need to overthink this. The Packers are the deeper and superior team to the visiting Texans. I would take Love - sight unseen - against any of the Texans QB's except Watson.
08-13-21	Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5	Top	2-3	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Seattle doesn't get much respect. That's obvious seeing this high of a road price on the Blue Jays. But the Marines are 35-24 at home this season. They rarely are out of games. If given plus 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 12-1 (92 percent) in its last 13 games. Seattle starter Chris Flexen is 6-4 at home with a 2.67 ERA compared to a 5.44 road ERA. He's been tough in Seattle all season. The Blue Jays aren't as fierce in pitcher's parks such as Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Toronto's offensive numbers are down across the board when comparing its home/road hitting statistics, including a drop of nearly 20 points in batting average. The Blue Jays have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. A major reason for Toronto being such a prohibitive favorite is starter Robbie Ray. He's 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Ray has always been a high strikeout pitcher, but he's proven much more consistent this season with his command and control. He does have a 3.91 lifetime ERA against the Mariners in four career starts. But this isn't a fade on Ray. It's a play on the feisty Mariners.
08-05-21	Royals v. White Sox -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-106	14 h 54 m	Show
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.
07-24-21	Nationals -1.5 v. Orioles	Top	3-5	Loss	-125	16 h 27 m	Show
Max Scherzer versus Matt Harvey is a mismatch of epic proportions. If it were a heavyweight fight it never would get sanctioned. I'll get involved laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Nationals, who will be getting their full number of at bats being the road team. The Orioles are as bad as ever with the worst home mark in the majors at 14-30, which includes a 2-9 record in their last 11 games at Camden Yards. Baltimore has lost 48 of its last 64 overall games. Scherzer has a 2.83 ERA with a 142-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season despite enduring some rough outings in his last three starts. Those starts, however, came against the Padres twice and Dodgers. Now he's stepping way, way down in class. Harvey is 4-10 with a 7.13 ERA, which rises to 7.90 at home. The Nationals got a look at Harvey on May 23. They liked what they saw getting to him for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings.
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks -5	Top	98-105	Win	100	40 h 47 m	Show
Losing the first two games of this championship series, the Bucks have rallied to win three in a row. The Bucks beat the Suns by 20 points at home in Game 3. They defeated the Suns by six points at home in Game 4 despite being outshot 51 percent to 40 percent from the floor and they knocked off the Suns in Game 5 on the road by four points despite trailing by 16 points going into the second quarter. Clearly, the Bucks have all the momentum. But it's not just momentum. Giannis Antetokounmpo is proving he's the finest all-around player in the NBA. The Bucks are exploiting their height advantage and depth. And now the Bucks play at Fiserv Forum in what is arguably their biggest home game in franchise history. The Suns had their chance to go up 3-2 in the series leading 32-16 at home at the end of the first quarter in Game 5. The Bucks took the punch and came back to win. Milwaukee is making the clutch plays not Phoenix. Lack of big-game playoff experience may have hurt the Suns. Devin Booker is playing great again, though. Chris Paul played much better in Game 5. But it didn't matter. The Suns can't match the Bucks' size, bench strength and Antetokounmpo's all-world performances. Getting this deep into the series isn't a plus either for Phoenix. This is the longest the Suns have ever lasted. They have never faced elimination before. So there is a mental question. There also is a physical concern - fatigue. Deandre Ayton went a career-high 45 minutes in Game 5. The Suns take a massive hit when Ayton, their lone effective big man, isn't on the court. Booker logged close to 42 minutes. Jae Crowder played 40 minutes. Paul is 36 years old. The Bucks are the fresher team because of their deeper bench. Perhaps the Suns can hang in on sheer willpower for a while, but their gas tank is near empty. This is the Bucks' chance. I don't see them blowing it. Antetokounmpo won't let that happen.
07-17-21	Bucks +4 v. Suns	Top	123-119	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
Sure, home-court is huge for the Suns. The Zig-Zag is on their side, too. It's their turn to win. However, the Suns face numerous issues that put me on the underdog Bucks for this Game 5. I've summarized them into five points: 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing no ill effects from his injury. He's actually playing the best basketball of his career, which is saying a lot since he's the two-time league MVP. Antetokounmpo gives the Bucks the best player on the court. Superstars win NBA championships. 2. The Bucks are bigger and more athletic. Milwaukee has exploited that to shoot 31 more field goals and 19 more free throws than the Suns during the first four games. The Bucks are dominating the offensive glass while averaging nearly eight more shots per game than Phoenix. The Suns took a major hit when backup big man Dario Saric suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the series. The Suns are at a severe disadvantage when Deandre Ayton isn't on the court - and he can't play every minute. 3. Turnovers. The Bucks are winning the possession battle by forcing more turnovers. Chris Paul, bothered by the great defense of Jrue Holiday and perhaps still hindered by a left wrist injury, has committed 15 turnovers during the last three games. Paul hasn't had a three-game turnover stretch that bad in seven years. 4. Momentum. The Bucks have it. Their confidence is way up. 5. Shooting percentage. The Bucks shot 40 percent from the field in Game 4. The Suns made 51 percent of their field goals. Yet the Bucks still won by six points. The shots are there for the Bucks. Holiday is a much better scorer than he's shown in this series. So is Kris Middleton. I expect Milwaukee's accuracy to go up.
07-14-21	Suns +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	103-109	Loss	-108	38 h 2 m	Show
The first three games of this NBA championship series have all been decided by double-digits. We're overdue for a close game. That should come here as each team now has a full feel of their opponent. This is a very even series now that Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown he's back at his elite level. Milwaukee punched back after falling behind 2-0 in the series with a resounding, 120-100, Game 3 home win on Sunday. Now it's the Suns' turn to respond, which I believe they will. The last time the Suns lost two in a row was three series ago when they dropped Games 2 and 3 against the Lakers. Since then the Suns have gone 10-3 versus the Nuggets, Clippers and Bucks. That's remarkable resiliency to go with three stars on the court, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. That's two more stars than the Bucks have. Milwaukee's strength in this series is its size and depth. The Suns are short-handed behind Ayton with backup Dario Saric out for the season after tearing his ACL in Game 1. Ayton must play major minutes. He didn't during Game 3 because of foul trouble. He should be fresh with three days in between Game 3 and Game 4 instead of the normal two days. Saddled with five fouls in a game for the first time in the postseason, Ayton only played 24 minutes on Sunday. The Bucks, especially Antetokounmpo, took full advantage dominating the paint and attacking the rim at will. Antetokounmpo alone shot 17 free throws in Game 3, which was more than the entire Suns team got to shoot from the foul line. Not helping matters for Phoenix was Booker had his worst game of the series going just 3-for-14 from the floor. He hadn't had that low of a scoring game during the entire calendar year of 2021. The Suns, who had the second-highest shooting percentage during the regular season, missed 22 of 31 shots from 3-point range. The Bucks' three best players - Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - were a combined 28-of-51 from the field and made 16 of 20 free throws in Sunday's victory. Middleon and Holiday aren't likely to play as poorly as they did during the first two games of the series. However, they aren't likely to produce ''A'' level games either against the Suns' tough defense. The Suns scored 118 points in each of the first two games of this series when they were home. Maybe they don't reach that number again being on the road. But they sure should score more than 100 points. I doubt Booker is out of rhythm a second straight game and I doubt Ayton encounters foul trouble a second consecutive time having avoided it throughout the playoffs while dominating the Clippers and playing Denver superstar Nikola Jokic to a standstill. Holiday is a solid two-way player. Perhaps even underrated. But he's not vintage Chris Paul, which is what Paul has been during the postseason. I see solid value on the Suns in this price range.
07-11-21	Suns v. Bucks -4	Top	100-120	Win	100	23 h 35 m	Show
This is the Bucks' season and I believe Milwaukee will respond well to the challenge being back at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks came back against the Nets and Hawks in their previous series. The Suns are better than those teams. Things are going well for the Suns, but they are not a super dominant power. During two of their series, they lost Game 3 at the Lakers and lost Game 3 at the Clippers. The best news for the Bucks is the return to health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has outscored Phoenix by four points during the time he's been on the court. The Bucks' problems are their other players stepping up. Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton are proven, solid players. They are overdue for much better performances. I don't expect the Suns to sink 50 percent of their 40 3-point shots like they did in Game 2 and I do expect the Bucks to shoot much better from 3-point range than the 9-for-31 performance of Game 2.
07-08-21	Bucks +5.5 v. Suns	Top	108-118	Loss	-104	19 h 55 m	Show
The Suns did what they did during their three previous playoff series, they came out fired up and executed well in winning and covering the spread in Tuesday's Game 1. Phoenix, though, failed to cover the number in Game 2 during their series against the Lakers and Clippers. The Suns' playoff and big-game inexperience showed in those non-covers. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked fine on Tuesday. The Bucks are right there with the Suns with a healthy Antetokounmpo. There are a number of signs pointing to the Bucks not only covering this Game 2, but perhaps coming away with the straight-up victory. Antetokounmpo scored 20 points, pulled down 17 rebounds and defended the rim. He was somewhat rusty, though. He needs his rhythm and he'll find it here. He's capable of playing even better. Free throws. What the hell? The Suns shot 26 free throws in Game 1. Their only miss came with 24 seconds left. They were 25-of-26. Milwaukee only got to shoot 16 free throws. Kris Middleton fired 26 shots - and didn't draw one foul. Strange. The Bucks are well-coached defensively. It's extremely rare for an opponent to get that many free throws against Milwaukee. The Bucks will be more aggressive. The lopsided foul situation should be rectified. It was an outlier. The Bucks had to play on much shorter rest than Phoenix in Game 1. The Bucks also got caught off-guard defending the Suns' pick-and-roll. Adjustments will be made. ''That will be a big part of looking between Game 1 and Game 2,'' Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was quoted as saying. Milwaukee has covered the past four times following a non-cover. I expect Jrue Holiday to play better, too. He didn't shoot well in Game 1 and may have been too passive with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup after playing great in the last two games without him. Holiday isn't Chris Paul, but he's a solid two-way player.
07-07-21	Canadiens v. Lightning -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	18 h 58 m	Show
The plucky Canadiens got their win, nipping the Lightning, 3-2, in overtime two days ago. Montreal regained its self-respect by not getting swept by Tampa Bay. But now the inevitable has arrived for the Canadiens - Game 5 in Tampa Bay. The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning are healthy and at the highest tier. Montreal is nowhere near that status. At best the Canadiens are at least one level, if not two levels, behind the Lightning. The situation is ripe for the Lightning to finish off this series. I'm going to turn a huge lay price into a plus price by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief this is not going to be a close game. Even if it is, the empty net factor looms large with Montreal on the brink of elimination and having nothing to lose. Tampa Bay hasn't lost two playoff games in a row since the opening round of 2019. The Lightning have won 72 percent of their last 69 home games. They also are 8-0 the past eight times hosting Montreal.
07-06-21	Bucks v. Suns -6	Top	105-118	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
This series has a Chris Paul crowning feel to it. The Bucks produced back-to-back great efforts without Giannis Antetokounmpo to eliminate the Hawks with that series finale occurring this past Saturday night in Atlanta. The Suns have had six days to rest and prepare. They are healthy, unlike the Bucks who probably are not going to have Antetokounmpo. Suns coach Monty Williams said his team has practiced well during the wait. Phoenix is 3-0 ATS during the first game of its playoff series. The Bucks are 0-3 ATS in the opening game of each of their playoff series. Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Bucks have failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. I trust the Suns at home to produce the better Game 1 result, enough so to cover this spread. Minus Antetokonumpo, the Suns have the three best players in Paul, Devin Booker and emerging star Deandre Ayton. The Bucks received huge performances from Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez during its last two games against the Hawks. They all stepped up big-time in the absence of Antetokounmpo. The Suns, however, are a much different opponent than the Hawks, who had to make do with a hobbled Trae Young. The Hawks lacked a defensive stopper to deal with Middleton. The Suns have one in veteran Jae Crowder. Paul and his excellent backup point guard, Cameron Payne, rate an edge on Holiday. Keep in mind, Antetokounmpo isn't the only key Buck out with an injury. Milwaukee has been without underrated guard Donte DiVincenzo. He's out for the season with a foot injury and his defense is missed. Ayton rates a huge edge on Lopez, an inconsistent journeyman who can't be trusted to play as well as he has. I can't see the Bucks coming up with a third straight ''A'' game especially given the short turnaround.
07-04-21	Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates	Top	0-2	Loss	-108	7 h 52 m	Show
Here's my coat and hat. I've arrived at the go-against the Pirates party. Milwaukee has won 11 in a row, including outscoring the Pirates by 19 runs during the first three games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost six in a row, with all of the defeats being by more than one run. It's easy to envision another lopsided Brewers win here in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Tyler Anderson. The Brewers are 11-4 in Peralta's 15 starts. Here's why. Peralta has a 2.17 ERA, which shrinks to 1.47 during his last nine starts. He's one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with 122 k's in 87 innings. Anderson, a lefty, is 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA. He's lost six of his past seven starts. Milwaukee is 8-1 the past nine times going against a southpaw starter.
06-26-21	Suns v. Clippers +1	Top	84-80	Loss	-101	18 h 12 m	Show
Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But given the Suns' fragile physical situation, it's surprising to find the Clippers again opening as a home underdog to the Suns. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 11 times hosting the Suns, including beating them, 106-92, two days ago. If it weren't for Deandre Ayton scoring a basket in the final second of Game 2, the Clippers would be leading the series, 2-1, and LA likely would be favored by several points. The Clippers have much better depth than the Suns. They have the big men and wing players to bother a weakened Chris Paul and sharpshooter Devin Booker, who suffered a broken nose in Game 2 and has been hindered playing with a plastic faceguard. He's made just 27 percent of his field goals during the last two games. Paul had a terrible Game 3 after being in home isolation for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. Paul is 36 and logged 39 minutes this past Tuesday. The best defense against Paul, who had been magnificent in the playoffs prior to going into isolation, is to throw athletic, wing men at him. The Clippers accomplished that with Paul George, Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum. Paul never could find his shooting range and his passing lanes were disrupted. Cameron Payne, Paul's effective point guard backup, couldn't help because of an ankle injury. He could go only four minuts. This puts the Suns in a real bind especially given Booker's shooting woes. Unsung players are needed to step up in the playoffs to help their superstars. The Clippers are getting that from Reggie Jackson, who is averaging 23 points in the five games Leonard has missed in the postseason. The Clippers have shown their mental toughness. They've fallen behind 0-2 in their series against the Mavericks and Jazz. LA won Game 3 and Game 4 in each of those series. Look for that pattern to continue here.
06-25-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	91-125	Loss	-104	17 h 18 m	Show
Bookmakers who have futures jeopardy on the Hawks - and there are their share of them - need to be concerned. Atlanta isn't following the standard protocol of paying playoff dues before establishing itself as a title contender. The Hawks are talented enough, have the right coach in Nate McMillan and a hot Trae Young, who is using this postseason to launch himself into superstardom, to jump the gun. The Hawks have enough to beat a vulnerable Bucks team that is getting way too much respect. I thought taking eight points with the Hawks in Game 1 was overly generous. I gladly accepted that and I'll gladly accept 7 1/2 points because this is an even series. So what if the Bucks are home? Atlanta is 6-2 in road playoff games. The Hawks have covered in 13 of their last 16 visits to Milwaukee. Being at home just means more pressure on the Bucks, who have yet to prove anything during the playoffs under Mike Budenholzer. So what if the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo when the Hawks have their own superstar in Young. I actually believe the Hawks are the more talented team given their big men of John Collins and Clint Capela. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 116-113, in Game 1 in part because they grabbed four offensive rebounds during the final two minutes. Collins and Capela combined to have a plus 20 ratio when they were on the floor. The Bucks had a negative 14 ratio when their big man, Brook Lopez, was on the court. The Bucks have a number of defensive stoppers such as Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Yet Budenholzer chose to put washed-up veteran Jeff Teague on Young during the second quarter. Teague only played around six minutes, but Young went crazy during this span just when it looked like the Bucks might have established early momentum. I don't point this out to nitpick Budenholzer, but to illustrate that his poor playoff history does not warrant any form of trust. Milwaukee blew a seven-point lead with a little more than four minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks have no business being favored this high again in the series. But I'm not here to argue. I'm just thankful to receive another gift.
06-23-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	116-113	Win	100	14 h 28 m	Show
If the Hawks didn't prove it against the Knicks, they sure proved it against the 76ers. They are young, well-coached, dangerous and can win on the road as their 5-2 away playoff record shows. Trae Young and Atlanta are playing on house money. They are battle-tested now and deserving of more respect than this inflated line. The pressure is on the Bucks, especially at home. Great during the regular season, disappointing in the playoffs. That's what the Bucks have been the previous two seasons under Mike Budenholzer. I don't see the Hawks stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo even though Nate McMillan greatly improved Atlanta's defense. But the Hawks have enough scorers to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Young can win a series by himself with his scoring and passing. The Hawks have other outside shooters and a pair of effective big men, John Collins and Clint Capela. Their talent level is right there with the Bucks. Atlanta has covered in 12 of its last 15 visits to Milwaukee. The point spread is too lopsided. It might not be this high again the rest of the series.
06-22-21	Clippers +5.5 v. Suns	Top	103-104	Win	100	19 h 20 m	Show
The Suns played well, especially Devin Booker, and defeated the Clippers, 120-114, in Game 1. The Clippers didn't play as well and were in a quick turnaround spot after having just knocked off the Jazz while the Suns were extremely well-rested. Phoenix made 55 percent of their shots from the floor. The Clippers connected on 45 percent. Yet the Suns still won by just six points. Now that the Clippers have 52 hours between games in Phoenix, I'm expecting a better performance, proper adjustments and a closer game. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA closed out the Jazz without him. No Chris Paul for the Suns, which is just as big of a loss if not more because Paul runs the team and was playing at peak efficiency. The Clippers have made the right adjustments all season. I trust they'll do it again here so I'm taking these points in the belief this is going to be an extremely close game.
06-16-21	Clippers v. Jazz -2.5	Top	119-111	Loss	-112	13 h 53 m	Show
The Jazz have played 81 games this season. Not once have they lost three in a row. A combination of talent, home-court and coaching will carry the Jazz through this Game 5 and ensure they won't drop three consecutive games for the first time this season. Utah's defense and bench is far stronger than it showed during the Clippers' 118-104 Game 4 victory in LA two days earlier. The Jazz beat the Clippers in the first two games of the series, both in Utah, and outscored the Clippers by 10 points in the second half of Monday's loss. Utah shot 51.4 percent from the floor in the second half, while holding the Clippers to 42.9 percent shooting from the field during the second half. That bode wells for the Jazz turning things around. So does returning home. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games in Salt Lake City. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS as a road 'dog. It's an added plus for Utah if Mike Conley can finally play. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are superstars. But Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are near that level. Gobert is the best defensive big man in basketball. I also like Utah's reserves more than the Clippers. The Clippers are in trouble if both Leonard and George aren't playing their "A" games. I also give the Jazz a solid coaching advantage with Quin Snyder against Ty Lue. (Update: I made this selection before news of Kawhi Leonard being out surfaced. The line has moved considerably following this news. I still like the Jazz to cover against the Clippers, but I would lower my wager at minus 6 1/2 or more.)
06-15-21	Bucks v. Nets +4.5	Top	108-114	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
This Bucks-Nets series has had a certain ebb and flow to it. Brooklyn opened the series as the better team. That's changed now since James Harden and Kyrie Irving were injured. Milwaukee is the superior team now. I acknowledge that. But I believe the combination of Kevin Durant, home court and tremendous emotional energy - part of the ebb and flow after the Bucks won the last two games - will keep the Nets in this one. The Nets are experienced playing without all three of their superstars on the court at the same time. They have role players such as Joe Harris and Blake Griffin who can step up when needed. The Nets' supporting cast, bolstered by adrenalin and home-court, has something to prove after being overlooked all season. This is their chance. Brooklyn has covered in 13 of its last 16 home games. The Bucks have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. I don't trust Milwaukee to cover a margin in this road setting especially when the Bucks could be feeling overconfident facing the Nets minus Harden and Irving.
06-14-21	Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights	Top	1-4	Loss	-124	30 h 22 m	Show
Few, if any, thought Montreal would be one of the four finalists for the Stanley Cup. But here the Canadiens are. They are loose, playing on house money and in a great position to ambush the host Golden Knights in Monday's opening game of their semifinal series. The Canadiens are rested and prepared having not played in a week after sweeping Winnipeg. The Golden Knights still could be partying after taking care of Colorado in a hard-fought, exciting six-game series that concluded Thursday night. Las Vegas is the superior team. No argument there. But it's a mistake to underestimate Montreal like the oddsmaker has done. So taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with Montreal makes tremendous sense. Can the Canadiens actually pull this first game upset? They just have to hang close - and there are signs they can do just that. Montreal has won seven in a row. The Canadiens have a winning road mark. They also have defeated the Golden Knights during their past four meetings with the last coming last year since the teams did not meet this season. Las Vegas played only West Division teams. This is the Golden Knights' first game versus a team outside the West Division. Carey Price could be the hottest goalie of the postseason. He's 8-3 with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. Las Vegas goalies, by comparison, have given up 2.4 goals during the playoffs with a .908 save percentage. The Golden Knights lost Game 1 of their opening playoff series against the Wild. They also lost in Game 1 against Colorado. The Canadiens eliminating the Maple Leafs was as impressive as the Golden Knights taking out the Avalanche. Montreal would be 11-2 in its last 13 games if given 1 1/2 goals. Las Vega would be 3-6 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 goals.
06-13-21	Suns -3 v. Nuggets	Top	125-118	Win	100	29 h 14 m	Show
The oddsmaker has adjusted 4 1/2 points from Game 3 when the Suns were road underdogs. It still isn't enough. The Suns are vastly superior to the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets. Phoenix has won by 17, 25 and 14 points at Denver during Friday's Game 3. The Suns still won by double-digits on Friday despite the Nuggets playing the hardest they have all series and their superstar, Nikola Jokic, scoring 32 points, pulling down 20 rebounds and dishing off 10 assists. It didn't matter. The Nuggets don't have the starters to match the Suns and their bench isn't nearly good enough to compensate. The loss of Murray is huge. This is what I wrote for Game 3 when I also had the Suns: "No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now." None of that has changed. Devin Booker remains a huge force and Chris Paul is playing great with a 34-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. The only change could be Denver's morale and confidence. The Nuggets know no team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. Their best shot two days ago wasn't nearly enough. That has to be depressing.
06-11-21	Suns +1.5 v. Nuggets	Top	116-102	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
I understand and respect the zig/zag theory of playoff basketball. Denver is down 0-2, returning home in must-win mode. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now. Chris Paul has a 26-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. Devin Booker is a force. The Nuggets are totally overmatched in the backcourt. This is where Denver really misses injured Jamal Murray. The Nuggets' backcourt is composed of Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. These aren't playoff-caliber starters. Rivers is a journeyman. Campazzo is a reserve thrust in an ill-suited starter's role. The Nuggets were able to overcome the Trail Blazers in their previous playoff series because Portland isn't a good defensive club. Phoenix is. The Suns don't have a weak defender. Phoenix hasn't surrendered more than 109 points in a playoff game. Denver is averaging 101.5 points against the Suns. That's 14 points below its season scoring average. Aside from Nikola Jokic, who has been good but not dominant, the Nuggets don't have the scorers to defeat the Suns. Michael Porter Jr. has back problems and Aaron Gordon is best when he's not needed to be counted on like he is here. The Suns have thrived in this role covering 13 of the last 19 times as a 'dog.
06-10-21	Nets v. Bucks -3.5	Top	83-86	Loss	-109	9 h 44 m	Show
It's kind of scary to think how good the Nets would be if they had James Harden having beaten the Bucks by a combined 47 points during the first two games of this series. Both of those victories came in Brooklyn. Harden won't be able to play in this Game 3. Certainly tremendous credit to the Nets. But are the Bucks really this outclassed? I don't see it. Neither does the linesmaker, who has installed Milwaukee as a solid home favorite for this game. The Bucks can beat the Nets inside. They just haven't been able to keep up with the Nets from 3-point range. New Jersey is shooting 44.4 percent from beyond the arc, while the Bucks have made just 24.6 percent of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton has been especially cold. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a minus 22 rating when he was on the court in Game 2. Middleton isn't a star, but he's certainly better than he's shown. Antetokounmpo isn't in the Michael Jordan/LeBron James Top of the World category, but he's easily one of the 10 best in the NBA right now, if not among the five best in the league. The Bucks went 4-0 following a loss of at least 20 points. After each blowout loss, they responded with a victory in the following game, winning those games by an average of 18.8 points. The Nets are playing on house money right now going on the road up 2-0. The Bucks are home and have tremendous motivation especially with their pride on the line. Maybe the Nets win this series. But a sweep? No sir.
06-07-21	Bucks +2 v. Nets	Top	86-125	Loss	-121	14 h 16 m	Show
No getting around it. The Bucks did not play well in Game 1 this past Saturday losing, 115-107, despite James Harden only playing less than a minute before suffering a hamstring injury. Joe Harris and Blake Griffin picked up some of Harden's scoring slack making a combined 9 of 18 from 3-point range. That's not likely to occur again. Harden is ruled out and the Bucks should shoot a lot better from beyond the arc than their 6-of-30 in Game 1. The Bucks also made only 58 percent of their free throws going 11-for-19. What the Bucks did right is bury the Nets with 72 points in the paint. Much of this inside damage was done by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Nets couldn't contain him as he scored 34 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the floor. The Bucks should shoot much better this time around. They ranked in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. There is no Harden. The Nets are vulnerable inside and can't stop Antetokounmpo. So look for Game 2 to go to the Bucks.
06-06-21	Hawks v. 76ers -2.5	Top	128-124	Loss	-117	8 h 35 m	Show
I'm not expecting Joel Embiid to play. Nice bonus if he does, but I'm certainly not counting on that. The 76ers know how to win without him especially with adequate preparation time, which is the case here. The 76ers closed out the Wizards at home without Embiid. They beat Washington by 17 points despite not playing that well. Philadelphia is 32-7 at home. The Hawks are not a strong road club. Atlanta went 0-6 during its last six regular-season away contests versus opposing playoff teams, including a pair of blowout losses to the 76ers in late April. The 76ers won those two home games by an average of 33 points! Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to Philadelphia. The 76ers have steadily been building for this moment. The Hawks have done well to advance this far. However, they are young and lack playoff experience. They have not paid their playoff dues to oust the 76ers even if Embiid sits out this series opener. Atlanta's defense greatly improved when Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce. But the Hawks' defense isn't at the 76ers' top-six level. The 76ers aren't going to sacrifice much on the boards either without Embiid since they have Dwight Howard and Mike Scott to fill in those minutes.
05-31-21	Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5	Top	120-113	Loss	-102	13 h 26 m	Show
After getting a split in Utah, the Grizzlies lost, 121-111, at home this past Saturday to fall behind the Jazz two games to one in their playoff series. So this really becomes a must-win spot for the Grizzlies because a loss sends them to Utah down 3-1 in the series. I trust the Grizzlies to get that win, if not hang very close in this Game 4. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Jazz in Game 3, including holding a nine-rebound advantage on the offensive boards. But the Grizzlies couldn't withstand Utah's hot 49.4 shooting from the floor. The Jazz scored 18 more points from 3-point range and 10 more points from the free throw line, getting 13 more free throw opportunities. Memphis had good looks at the basket. The Grizzlies were just cold, unlike Utah. I expect the Grizzlies to shoot better. The Jazz haven't been able to stop Ja Morant. I also expect the Jazz to score fewer points. Until that loss two days ago, Memphis had held its past five opponents at home to an average of 105.2 points. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if that were a season average. Memphis has covered 71 percent the last 14 times it has been an underdog. The Grizzlies also have covered five of the past six times they were a home 'dog.
05-30-21	Clippers -3 v. Mavs	Top	106-81	Win	100	20 h 34 m	Show
The Clippers were in deep trouble of not only getting swept by the Mavericks, but also becoming a national joke trailing 2-0 in the series and down by 19 points on the road in Game 3. But the Clippers got it together and won Game 3, 118-108 this past Friday. This doesn't mean the series is over. However, the momentum has shifted. The Clippers have figured things out and I do see them winning Game 4. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are living up to their superstar labels averaging 34.3 points and 26.7 points, respectively. Luka Doncic is a monster for Dallas. The rest of the Mavericks I don't trust, including Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 1 and made an unbelievable 58.5 percent of their shots from the floor in Game 2. They only are an average scoring team. So those games weren't normal. The Clippers are the No. 4 defensive team in the NBA. They ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Dallas shot 44.2 percent from the field in Game 3. The Mavericks made 47 percent of their field goals during the regular season. They are not a 50 percent shooting team especially against an upper tier defense. Dallas has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has hosted the Clippers.
05-27-21	Suns +7 v. Lakers	Top	95-109	Loss	-100	20 h 4 m	Show
LeBron James is fine. Chris Paul is not. Paul's playing almost with just one arm because of a shoulder injury. Despite this, I like the Suns to cover this Game 3 margin. The Lakers often are overpriced at home. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Suns didn't achieve the NBA's second-best record by not overcoming some adversity and by not being resilient. They deserve more respect. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS following a loss and has covered seven of the past nine times when taking points on the road. Paul was ineffective because of his injury when the Lakers evened the series at 1-1 by defeating the Suns, 109-102, two days ago. I'm not expecting much now from the 36-year-old Paul. But I do have faith in reserve point guard Cameron Payne. He played well in that Game 2 loss. James and Paul dominate the headlines. Paul isn't the Suns' best player, though. Devin Booker is. He's an emerging superstar. who doesn't get the attention he deserves. Big man Deandre Ayton gives the Suns the fourth-best player on the court next to James, Anthony Davis and Booker. The Lakers have enough superstar greatness and savvy to probably win this series. But there aren't going to be blowout games. The Suns will keep this one close.
05-26-21	Royals v. Rays -1.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	16 h 4 m	Show
The Rays have been the best team during the past couple of weeks winning 11 in a row through Monday with the last nine of those victories coming by more than one run. The Royals halted that streak with a 2-1 victory on Tuesday. But with Tyler Glasnow on the mound Wednesday, I'm fully expecting the Rays to get back to their winning form in convincing fashion. Glasnow is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA. He's been absolutely dominant at home with a 2.20 ERA and a 44-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Glasnow should easily handle a below-average Kansas City offense that struck out 13 times against Rich Hill on Tuesday. The Royals rank 19th in runs and 28th in homers. Mike Minor draws the start for Kansas City. After some promising seasons in Atlanta, Minor has turned into a journeyman. The Royals are the third team he's been on during the last two years. Minor's ERA was well above 5.00 last season and it's 5.14 this year. His strikeout numbers have dropped and his WHIP has gone up. He's now just an innings-eater at best. The Rays rank among the top nine in runs and homers. The Rays have won 57 of their last 84 home games for 68 percent playing their games in quirky Tropicana Field with it's lightning fast astroturf and weird stadium dimensions. It's a tough adjustment for the opposition. The Royals have lost 12 of the past 15 times when playing on astroturf and are 5-14 in their last 19 meetings against Tampa Bay, including going 2-6 during their past eight games at Tropicana Field.
05-24-21	Heat +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	98-132	Loss	-103	11 h 42 m	Show
The Bucks have been a dominant team for the last several years. But they've always had problems with Miami. The Bucks were fortunate to win Game 1 at home this past Saturday, nipping the Heat, 109-107, on a basket by Khris Middleton with a second left in overtime. The Heat came that close despite Jimmy Butler enduring the worst shooting performance of his career. Bam Adebayo, the Heat's second-best player next to Butler, also had a bad shooting game. Combined they were 8-of-37 from the floor for 22 percent. The Bucks dominated the Heat inside the paint outscoring Miami, 56-24. I highly doubt Butler and Abebayo shoot that bad again and the Heat should be better in the paint, too. The Heat led the NBA in paint defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Expect the Heat to play much better in this Game 2. The Heat will need to hit their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1, but those looks are there for them. The Bucks had the worst 3-point shooting defense in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been favored.
05-22-21	Celtics v. Nets -7.5	Top	93-104	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
The Celtics managed to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth-seed. But don't get fooled. This has been a broken season for Boston. Things aren't suddenly going to get fixed for the Celtics drawing this tough opponent especially with Jalen Brown out. Brooklyn had a dominating season despite rarely having Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the court together. Now all three superstars are healthy at just the right time. The Nets are not a strong defensive club, but their explosiveness factor is off the charts. Brown not only was Boston's second-best player, but he would have been a major defensive help. Marcus Smart can't cover three superstars by himself and underrated Robert Williams isn't 100 percent. The Nets swept the Celitcs winning by a combined 45 points in their three games this season. Not once in any of those matchup were Durant, Harden and Irving all able to play in the same game. Now they can. The Celtics are 5-9 in their last 14 games. Aside from Jayson Tatum, there has been major regression from the past couple of seasons for Boston. The Celtics also have failed to cover during their past six road games against the Nets. The class difference between these two teams is more than single digits, especially when playing in Brooklyn.
05-21-21	Grizzlies +5 v. Warriors	Top	117-112	Win	100	15 h 59 m	Show
Aside from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors have a lot of youth and lack big-game inexperience. I don't trust the Warriors in this point spread range against a talented, hungry Grizzlies squad that has the height and muscle to hurt Golden State inside. Yes, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies, 113-101, at home this past Sunday. But the Grizzlies were right with the Warriors until Dillon Brooks, who was doing a good job covering Curry, fouled out with Memphis trailing just, 93-91. Curry carries a high fatigue rating having played 81 minutes during his last two games. Curry's worst shooting games have occurred when he's been tired. Memphis has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been a 'dog. Big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned to the Grizzlies' lineup giving them a frontcourt edge on the Warriors with Jonas Valanclunas in the middle. Curry is an MVP finalist, but Ja Morant gives Memphis an upper tier guard, too.
05-15-21	Heat v. Bucks +4.5	Top	108-122	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret the physical, defensive-minded, well-coached Heat match up well to the Bucks. Miami proved that in a convincing manner last season eliminating the Bucks in five games during the second round of the playoffs. There's also conjecture the Bucks could be sitting out players here. There's already been tremendous early line movement to the Heat. But, even in a worst-case scenario, Milwaukee has enough depth and bench strength to cover this number at home. It's a huge plus if the Bucks do give meaningful minutes to their regulars.
05-13-21	Magic +12.5 v. Hawks	Top	93-116	Loss	-109	17 h 57 m	Show
Tight victories against the Wizards on Monday and Wednesday have pushed the Hawks into their first playoff spot in four years. The Hawks are thrilled, relieved and exhausted after nipping Washington, 125-124, three days ago and beating the Wizards, 120-116, last night. This sets up a tremendous letdown spot for the Hawks in today's game against the lowly Magic. This is the Hawks' third game in four days and second in two nights. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. The Magic held the Bucks, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 114 points in their last game this past Tuesday. That was six points under the Bucks' season average. The youthful Magic should play hard here, but the situation is the No. 1 factor why Orlando should keep things close.
05-11-21	Magic v. Bucks -13	Top	102-114	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
The Bucks have something to prove physically and mentally after being embarrassed, 146-125, on the road by the Spurs Monday night. Milwaukee certainly is going to be motivated for tonight's home game and the Bucks have the perfect patsy to get themselves right again - the Magic. Orlando has lost 18 of 24 since dumping their top players at the trade deadline. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Bucks are giving up an unsightly 137.7 points during their last three games. It's been a combination of lackluster defense and hot offenses that have caused this. Milwaukee should clamp down defensively here. Orlando is second-to-last in scoring and last in field goal percentage. The Bucks trail the Nets by one game for second-place in the Eastern Conference. So they will have incentive. The Bucks have dominated the Magic winning the past six meetings while going 5-0-1 ATS. This includes the Bucks' two victories against the Magic this season by an average of 29.5 points.
05-10-21	Jazz -3 v. Warriors	Top	116-119	Loss	-102	11 h 26 m	Show
There's a class difference here worthy enough to lay the road points. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games riding a five-game win streak. No rest stops for them, though, as they hold just a 1 1/2-game lead on the Suns for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors also have been playing well. But they've also played a bunch of bunnies lately. Their last six games have been against the Thunder twice, Pelicans twice, Rockets and Timberwolves. Only the Pelicans have a slim chance of making the playoffs among that dreck. Utah has covered nine of the last 12 in this series and is 4-1 ATS in its past five visits to Golden State.
05-07-21	Lakers +8.5 v. Blazers	Top	101-106	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
No LeBron James. No Dennis Schroder. OK, now that's out the way here's why the Lakers keep this game close, if not pull the outright upset: The Trail Blazers are playing their first home game since April 25. They've been on the road since turning in an impressive 5-1 away mark during this span. So this is a dangerous spot for the Trail Blazers, who have lost their LAST six home games. The Lakers are 1-4 in their past five games. Their win was against the Nuggets, which is impressive. LA's losses, though, were to the Clippers, Raptors, Kings and Wizards. The Kings and Wizards have been sizzling. Anthony Davis is expected to play after logging just nine minutes in his last game. Davis is calling this matchup the biggest game the Lakers have left on their regular season.
05-06-21	Grizzlies v. Pistons +9.5	Top	97-111	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
The Grizzlies aren't good enough to cover a road spread this high considering the situation they are in. This marks Memphis' fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies just defeated the Timberwolves, 139-135, in a wild game on Wednesday night. Memphis is 1-4 ATS the last five times it has been favored. The Pistons are in a youth movement. But they have received strong play from rookies Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Those three combined, however, to shoot 4-for-23 in the Pistons' last game. That was two days ago against the Hornets. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and Wayne Ellington didn't play for Detroit in that game. Still, the Pistons only lost, 102-99. The Pistons are 15-6-1 the past 22 times following a loss. They can hang in against this foe, particularly given the Grizzlies' high fatigue rating.
05-02-21	Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers	Top	16-4	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today.
05-01-21	Nuggets v. Clippers -5	Top	110-104	Loss	-105	10 h 27 m	Show
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
04-30-21	Golden Knights v. Coyotes +1.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
The Coyotes are in desperation, must-win mode win trailing the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes have a winning record in their past nine home games and are primed to give a strong effort here. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, enter this matchup fat and happy. Their playoff ticket is punched and they are off a highly-satisfying, 5-2, home victory against the Avalanche this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights regard the Avalanche as their main competitor in the Western Conference. This is a prime letdown spot for Las Vegas. So this sets up as a great ambush spot for Arizona. But to play it safe, I'm going to lay the juice and take 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
04-29-21	Warriors -5 v. Wolves	Top	114-126	Loss	-110	14 h 10 m	Show
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat.
04-28-21	Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers	Top	83-127	Loss	-115	11 h 2 m	Show
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply.
04-25-21	Kings +9.5 v. Warriors	Top	113-117	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable.
04-21-21	Nuggets v. Blazers +2	Top	106-105	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Nuggets are 3-0 since watching the horror of Jamal Murray go down for the season with a torn ACL. Denver has managed to beat the Heat, the hapless Rockets and the Grizzlies in double overtime this past Monday rallying from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes left in regulation. Now, though, the Nuggets are without Murray and fellow guard Monte Morris. He's out with a hamstring injury. Denver escaped the Grizzlies despite committing 24 turnovers. I don't see the Nuggets escaping on the road here against Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 113-112 home loss to the Clippers last night. Portland came very close despite not having Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is Portland's best player and Nurkic is their best front-court player. Both Lillard and Nurkic are expected to play against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers' huge backcourt edge should carry them through.
04-18-21	Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks	Top	2-3	Loss	-114	10 h 10 m	Show
Toronto is one of the best teams in hockey. The Maple Leafs are in rare stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Jets in their last game this past Thursday. The Maple Leafs are in a great scheduling spot here. They draw Vancouver, which hasn't played since March 24 because of an outbreak of COVID-19 that affected 22 of its players. Not only have the Canucks not played since then, but they've only been able to practice once during this long idle period. They still could be down as many as seven players. The Canucks certainly could use more time to get ready, but the league is anxious for them to resume their season. The Canucks are not up to par physically or mentally. I can't see them hanging close to the Maple Leafs regardless if Austin Matthews, the NHL's top goal scorer, plays or not after sitting out Thursday with a hand injury. Toronto has won five of the last six times it has been a road favorite. They are in a great spot to add to that record.
04-12-21	Rangers v. Rays -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-107	15 h 50 m	Show
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run.
04-11-21	Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers	Top	124-131	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent.
04-09-21	Rockets +12 v. Clippers	Top	109-126	Loss	-108	12 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points.
04-08-21	Suns v. Clippers -5	Top	103-113	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close.
04-06-21	Bulls v. Pacers +1	Top	113-97	Loss	-103	8 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series.
04-04-21	Grizzlies v. 76ers -3	Top	116-100	Loss	-110	9 h 40 m	Show
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday.
04-03-21	Houston v. Baylor -5	Top	59-78	Win	100	79 h 35 m	Show
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength.
03-31-21	Bucks -8 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	21 h 50 m	Show
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty.
03-31-21	Flyers v. Sabres +1.5	Top	1-6	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
The Sabres won't have a better chance of ending their hideous 18-game losing streak than right here. But can they be trusted? Heck no. That's why I'm backing them on the puck line taking 1 1/2 goals and laying juice believing this is going to be an extremely close game between two teams who are playing terribly. It sure went that way this past Monday night. Buffalo jumped to a 3-0 lead before proceeding to lose, 4-3 in overtime. It may have been the Sabres' most frustrating loss of the season, which is saying a lot since you need a calculator to add up all of their defeats. Now the Sabres get their revenge opportunity. Motivation can mean everything, but it won't work if the talent level isn't there. Fortunately for the Sabres, the Flyers are extremely mediocre with the worst defense and penalty kill in the league. Philadelphia is 5-9 in its last 14 games. If laying 1 1/2 goals, the Flyers would be riding a 16-game losing streak themselves. They haven't won a game by more than one goal this entire month.
03-29-21	Arkansas +8 v. Baylor	Top	72-81	Loss	-106	19 h 28 m	Show
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game.
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-24-21	Hornets v. Rockets +3.5	Top	122-97	Loss	-105	15 h 18 m	Show
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-21-21	Lakers +10 v. Suns	Top	94-111	Loss	-108	11 h 34 m	Show
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-17-21	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	19 h 44 m	Show
Returning home from a six-game road trip, the Golden Knights were far from sharp when they hosted San Jose this past Monday. Sure enough Las Vega was flat. But the Golden Knights still managed to beat San Jose, 2-1. Now the Golden Knights are more rested and primed to destroy the opponent they hate the most. Las Vegas is the vastly superior team and won't lack motivation. The Golden Knights are third defensively giving up 2.2 goals per game. Marc-Andre Fleury is in the argument for best goalie this season. Las Vegas is a top-10 scoring team. The Sharks give up the most goals per game in the league at 3.5. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Las Vegas has defeated San Jose five times in a row. The Sharks are 6-13 the past 19 times when playing on one day's rest. The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of their last 52 home contests. Kill spot here so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-04-21	Thunder +7 v. Spurs	Top	107-102	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-01-21	Hornets v. Blazers -6.5	Top	111-123	Win	100	20 h 32 m	Show
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-26-21	Hawks v. Thunder +5.5	Top	109-118	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
02-25-21	Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5	Top	67-59	Loss	-107	19 h 56 m	Show
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode.
02-24-21	McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana	Top	96-91	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.
02-23-21	Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State	Top	57-62	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
02-21-21	Wolves v. Knicks -2.5	Top	99-103	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
Defense. Situation. Coaching. Everything adds up for the Knicks in this matchup. So I'm really surprised the line opened so short. Maybe it's because there's a perception the Knicks are still a bottom-feeder like the Timberwolves. They aren't. The Knicks have made tremendous strides under former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau. New York has become the best defensive team in the NBA ranking first in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks surrender 12 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the league with a 7-23 record. They rank in the bottom-six both offensively and defensively. They are minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell. The Timberwolves are short-handed in the backcourt with Russell and Jarrett Culver both out. Minnesota will be playing its fourth game in six days. The previous three games all were at home. The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 14 road contests. The Knicks have been idle since Wednesday when they lost as a road favorite against the Magic, 107-89. That loss kept New York from reaching .500. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, has had extra preparation time to figure out how to adequately replace injured center Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have won and covered five of their last seven home games. Obviously Thibodeau would like to beat the franchise that fired him midway through the 2018-19 season after he had led them to the playoffs the previous season. Minnesota hadn't made the postseason in 13 seasons before Thibodeau came along. The Knicks shouldn't lack motivation and focus. The stumbling Timberwolves already are in rebuild mode again.
02-19-21	California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon	Top	61-71	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.
02-18-21	Iowa v. Wisconsin	Top	77-62	Loss	-108	14 h 60 m	Show
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times. Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss.
02-13-21	UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	88-72	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
02-11-21	Pacers -3 v. Pistons	Top	111-95	Win	100	18 h 40 m	Show
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite.
02-10-21	Bucks v. Suns +4.5	Top	124-125	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings.
02-08-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Suns	Top	113-119	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days.
02-08-21	Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5	Top	61-79	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
02-05-21	California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State	Top	85-75	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
02-04-21	Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5	Top	74-72	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
02-03-21	Fordham v. Massachusetts -13	Top	54-60	Loss	-105	15 h 13 m	Show
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points.
02-02-21	USC -2 v. Stanford	Top	72-66	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.
01-31-21	Cavs -3 v. Wolves	Top	104-109	Loss	-114	18 h 31 m	Show
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota.