| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 07-21-17 | Winnipeg +4 v. BC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
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Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year. Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark. BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone. The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites. The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench. That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise.
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| 07-13-17 | Toronto v. Winnipeg -3 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 37 m | Show |
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Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home. Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them. The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team. Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler. The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season.
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| 07-08-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
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The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball going 24-4 in their last 28 games. So why try to buck them here? Let me state the reasons: The Royals may be the second-hottest team at 18-7 in their last 25 games. They are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. The Royals have the hotter starting pitcher going. Kansas City needs this game knowing it faces Clayton Kershaw and a likely loss on Sunday. Oh, yes, I'm taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Royals. The Dodgers would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 runs. Each of their last three victories have been by exactly one run. Ian Kennedy, a native of Southern California, is pitching for the Royals. He is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts. Kennedy is overlooked, but he has been outstanding. Kennedy hasn't surrendered more than six hits during any of his 15 starts. He's holding opponents to a .201 batting average, fourth-best in baseball behind only Max Scherzer, Kershaw and Chris Sale. Those are the three best pitchers in the majors. Kansas City has won each of Kennedy's past five road starts, too. The Dodgers are pitching righy Brandon McCarthy. He's been on the DL with a knee strain since June 25. McCarthy looked terrible in his last start, which came at home against Colorado. McCarthy only went three innings giving up five runs (four earned) on four hits and two walks. He also uncorked three wild pitches in one inning. There's a huge question mark about McCarthy's effectiveness now. He shouldn't be this high of a favorite - and taking 1 1/2 runs is added insurance. McCarthy has a 4.05 career ERA against the Royals in 14 appearances, including six starts. Kansas City has won 12 of the last 17 times it has faced a right-handed starter.
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| 06-07-17 | Warriors -3 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
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This is supposed to be the Cavaliers' game to win, right? The Zig/Zag theory points that way and so does the normal situational thinking of Cleveland down 2-0 in the series now returning home in a must-win spot. The oddsmakers think that way, too, having made a six-point adjustment in the line. There's just one problem with all this pro-Cavaliers thinking. It's entirely faulty because Cleveland simply isn't in Golden State's class. The Warriors have won by 22 and 19 points, respectively. Oh, I fully expect the Cavaliers to play as hard as ever at Quicken Loans Arena. They probably will produce their best game of the series - but it won't even be enough to even cover the spread. The Cavaliers couldn't come within 19 points of the Warriors in Game 2 and that was playing with exceptional intensity and coming up with 15 steals when Golden State had only five. The Warriors also will be highly motivated remembering the Cavaliers rallying from a 3-1 deficit last year to caputre the championship in seven games. They aren't going to give the Cavaliers any hope of that occurring again by letting up. The addition of Kevin Durant - who has more than lived up to his superstar status - has made the Warriors a team for the ages. They are in the discussion as greatest team ever with tremendous firepower and excellent defense. Cleveland can't defend the Warriors. It's that simple. The Cavaliers can't match Golden State's scorers and they lack elite defenders. LeBron James doesn't have nearly enough help to deal with Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Co. Tristan Thompson is boxed out. J.R. Smith is a bust. Kyle Korver and Deron Williams have been exposed. Tyronn Lue is a weak coach. So just forget this must-win talk surrounding the Cavaliers. The bottom line here is this is a cheap lay price. |
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| 05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Sure it's a monster plus if Kawhi Leonard plays today. Not only is he the best two-way player in basketball, but the mental lift he would provide would be enormous. I think Leonard will test his injured ankle and give it a try. The teams last played on Tuesday. So he's had three full days of recovery. Doctors found no structural damage to his ankle. If he plays, this spread is well worth getting involved. However, I'm not counting on Leonard playing. Yet I still believe the Spurs are worth backing in a home underdog role down 0-2 in this Western Conference Finals and in must-win mode. The Spurs can't help but be super fired up especially after taking a verbal beating from their Hall of Fame coach, Gregg Popovich, after being embarrassed 136-100 in Game 2. The Spurs are a prideful, veteran crew that showed it could win without Leonard when they buried the Rockets by 30 points on the road to close out their semifinal series. Golden State has lost a staggering 25 of 27 times at AT&T Center. This includes a 2-3 mark under Steve Kerr. So the Spurs' home-court advantage can not be underestimated. The Warriors also could be minus Andre Iguodala and starting center Zaza Pachulia. Their potential absence is being overlooked in all the hoopla surrounding Leonard's status. That would really hurt the Warriors' defense and leave their bench thin. Both are questionable due to injuries. Iguodala had the best plus-minust average in the league of all reserves who played in at least 50 games.
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| 05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
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Can the Celtics end the Cavaliers' 12-game playoff win streak? No. Boston clearly is outclassed here. The Cavaliers rolled past the Celtics, 117-104, in Wednesay's series opener. The scary thing about that 13-point victory was the Cavaliers were rusty having not played for nine days previous to that. The 13-point final also was misleading. The Cavaliers blew out Boston. The Celtics scored a lot of meaningless points during the second half when the outcome was not in doubt. LeBron James is playing great. The Celtics have no answer for him. But Kyrie Irving only scored 11 points on Wednesday. He's capable of much bigger things. The Celtics just can't match up to the Cavaliers especially in the frontcourt. Sure Brad Stevens is going to make some adjustments. But just what can Stevens do? He doesn't have the personnel to stay competitive with the Cavaliers. The Celtics have some fatigue. They just finished a grueling seven-game series against the Wizards. This marks their third game in five days. The Cavaliers are totally fresh and won't be rusty now.
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| 05-18-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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This has the makings of a being a wild game with a pitching matchup of Dylan Covey versus Sam Gaviglio. Covey is off his best start striking out a career-high nine batters in a 5-4 win against the Padres this past Saturday. Covey did that in just 4 1/3 innings as he was lifted after reaching 91 pitches. He won't have to deal with Robinson Cano, who is on the DL. This isn't a play on Covey, though. Rather it's a fade on Gaviglio and a Mariners bullpen that lacks a clear-cut closer. I'd rather take insurance with plus 1 1/2 runs - especially with the White Sox being the visitor and getting an extra at bat against Seattle's vulnerable bullpen - then take a chance on a straight-up White Sox victory. The White Sox just got swept three games by the Angels. They remain on the West Coast. If you give them 1 1/2 runs, the White Sox would 13-9 in their last 22 games. That's a winning percentage of 59 percent. Seattle would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The Mariners have allowed five or more runs in six of their last nine games. Seattle averages 4.8 runs per game. So if the White Sox put up four-to-six runs that should do the trick especially with the added 1 1/2 run line cushion. This shouldn't be too much to ask of the White Sox. Gaviglio will be making his first big league start. He last pitched one week ago throwing two innings of relief giving up one run on two hits. Seattle has four-fifths of its starting pitching rotation on the DL. Gavilglio is a desperation option.
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| 05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
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If Boston is ever going to steal a game in this Eastern Conference Finals this is its opportunity. The Celtics are home, playing well and have momentum. The Cavaliers last played on May 7. Being idle a full nine straight days is way too much especially at this juncture of the season. Not only does this prolonged time off potentially slow down the Cavaliers' mometum, but strongly suggests a rust factor. The key is are the Celtics good enough to take advantage? They weren't two years ago when the Cavaliers swept them. They are now. Boston has covered nine of its last 11 games, including its past five home contests. The Celtics have played three strong games in a row in blowing out the Wizards in Game 5, falling by one point on the road and then winning by double-digits in Game 7 at home on Monday. This is a short turnaround for the Celtics, but they were idle yesterday and didn't have to do any traveling having finished off the Wizards at home. The Celtics are not an old team either. They have enough legs, momentum and energy - fired-up by everyone completely ruling out their chances to win this series - to produce a strong effort here and take advantage of Cleveland's long layoff. During the regular season, the Celtics were 2 and 4-point favorites, respectively, in their two home games versus the Cavaliers. Now look at the spread. OK, this is the playoffs and the Cavaliers won't be holding back. But I'd still say this is line value. The Celtics also get a coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. LeBron James is going to bring it. He's the King. But Isaiah Thomas has raised his game to superstar level and he hasn't tailed off in the playoffs averaging 25.4 points during the postseason. Thomas is coming off a monster Game 7 clutch performance against the Wizards where he had 29 points, 12 assists and committed only two turnovers. Al Horford is having a strong playoffs, too, averaging 16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Horford's confidence is sky high in his outside shooting as he's made 21 of 36 3-pointers for 58.3 percent. Horford being hot from 3-point range is the Celtics' secret weapon and a matchup problem for the Cavaliers, who wouldn't be able to pay such strict attention to Thomas.
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| 05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
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These two teams met at Oracle Arena to begin the season way back on Oct. 25. The Spurs were 8 1/2-point underdogs for that one. Final score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 100. OK, much has changed since then with one of them being Tony Parker is out with a ruptured quad. But not everything has changed to the detriment of San Antonio and for the betterment of Golden State. Mike Brown is now the acting coach for the Warriors with Steve Kerr ill. Brown is a much better assistant coach than head man. He can't compare to Gregg Popovich when it comes to head coaching. I've been following basketball for more than 50 years and Popovich is the best head coach I've ever seen. Certainly he's in the top-five all-time. The Spurs are riding the momentum of beating Houston, 114-75, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs to close out that series. That happened on Thursday. So the Spurs won't be rusty, but also have had two full days of rest and preparation. Golden State, on the other hand, hasn't played since Monday. That's too much time off between games. The Warriors very well could lose their edge because of the extended time off. Golden State has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when having had three or more days off. If the Warriors come out rusty, off-kilter and cold they won't even win the game let alone cover this monster double-digit point spread. The Spurs outrebounded the Warriors, 55-35, in that opening night victory. Golden State gave up 21 offensive rebounds, the most it allowed all season. Now the Warriors have become more cohesive since then, but rebounding remains a crucial area. The Spurs have a height advantage and two dangerous low-post scorers in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, who got hot late in the Rockets series showing his criics that he is not overrated. "If we give up offensive rebounds and they take more shots than us, it's going to be hard for us to win," Kevin Durant was quoted as saying when asked about this series. Golden State has reached the NBA Finals each of the last two seasons. Neither time, though, did they meet the Spurs in the playoffs. So playing such a mentally tough and well-coached team in the playoffs is going to be a new experience. San Antonio is 13-6-1 the past 20 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage above .600. I respect the heck out of the Warriors. They have super talent. But the Spurs are not exactly chopped liver. As great as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are, I would take Kawhi Leonard over anybody as far as being a two-way player. Leonard should be close to full strength, too, having been idle the past two days. Popovich has the necessary defenders to throw at Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson with emerging Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green and Patty Mills, who is replacing Parker at point guard. Parker is a savvy veteran, but Mills is underrated and in his prime. Parker was over-the-hill. The Spurs also have Dewayne Dedmond, a below-the-radar player who has the necessary athleticism to bother Golden State. The Spurs can milk their size. The Warriors can't do that. They need to hit their outside shots. San Antonio ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. The Spurs also rated fourth in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. Given all these factors plus the situation, it's my strong belief that this point spread is way out of whack. |
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| 05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
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After outplaying the Celtics for stretches during the first two games of the series, the Wizards broke through this past Thursday in Game 3 winning by 27 points. I like the Wizards to win again at Verizon Center, where they covered 57 percent of the time during the regular season and are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS during the playoffs. The Wizards blew out the Celtics in Game 3 despite their dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal missing 20 of 31 shots from the floor, including nine of 11 3-point attempts. Wall has logged a ton of minutes so having an extra day of rest with two full days in between games should help him. The Wizards' frontcourt outplayed the Celtics and now Washington has big man Ian Mahimmi back in the rotation. It's telling that the Wizards rolled past the Celtics at home in Game 3 despite poor shooting from their backcourt, which is the strength of their team.
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| 05-05-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
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The Raptors found themselves down 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Finals playoff series against the Cavaliers last year after losing the first two games in Cleveland. Toronto returned home and beat Cleveland by 15 points holding the Cavaliers to 84 points. Will history repeat itself? No. There are too many differences from last season starting with how great the Cavaliers are playing. Cleveland is averaging 120.5 points in the series winning by 11 and 22 points, respectively. LeBron James is playing at an "A" level, which is the highest form of basketball. His teammates also are playing at peak efficiency. The Cavaliers aren't going to forget what happened last season when they went to Toronto up 2-0 in the series. They will be mentally focused to go with their outstanding court performances. Not only do the Raptors face a supreme challenge of slowing down the Cavaliers - something they have yet to do - but they likely will be without All-Star point guard Kyle Lowery. He didn't practice Thursday after suffering a badly sprained ankle during the third quarter of Wednesday's Game 2. Even if Lowery can give it a go, his effectiveness is going to be extremely limited. He only kept playing on the ankle in Game 2 because it didn't stiffen up. "Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeMar DeRozan was quoted as saying about Lowery. "So for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us." DeRozan is the Raptors' other key player and he's cold scoring only five points in Game 2. DeRozan is frustrated, but the Cavaliers can just keep clamping down on him giving him no space while none of Toronto's guards and wings step up. DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson are a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the floor. Yes, the Raptors will be super motivated. But it's asking too much of them to turn around their offense - just like a light switch - especially with Lowry hurt, while suddenly slowing down the unstoppable James and putting an end to the Cavaliers' hot shooting from 3-point range. All of that would simply defy logic - and basketball.
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| 05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
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Call it playing the Zig/Zag theory if you care to. But I want the Wizards going for me at home down 0-2 in their series against Boston. Not only only has the home team covered each of the last six times these two teams have met, but the Wizards have played the Celtics tough controlling each of the first two games for various stretches. The Wizards should have easily covered in Game 2, but lost in overtime by 10 points. Isaiah Thomas had a came for the ages pouring in 29 of his 53 points during the fourth quarter and overtime in memory of his 23-year-old sister, who died on the eve of the playoffs. This time it's the Wizards' turn to play with great emotion. They have been outstanding at Verizon Center this season covering 57 percent of their home games. As great as Thomas has been, I would take John Wall over him as the best player on the court. The key for the Wizards is getting better front court production. That should happen here with Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris being able to avoid foul trouble at home. Morris proved he had overcome a sprained ankle suffered in Game 1 by playing a strong Game 2. However, he fouled out in just 27 minutes.
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| 05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
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It's not a coincidence the Spurs have a strong record of success in the opening game of a playoff round. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he's ready to go, well prepared. San Antonio opened with a 29-point home win against Memphis this season in their first series game. Last year, the Spurs beat both the Grizzlies and Thunder by 32 points apiece in their respective series openers, both in San Antonion. Then, two years ago, the Spurs defeated the Clippers by 27 points when they played their first series home game. Now the Spurs host the Rockets, who have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Thunder in their first-round playoff series despite shooting just 28.4 percent from 3-point range. The Rockets live and die more than any team with 3-point shots leading the league in attempts at 40.3 per game. San Antonio not only ranks fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage but led the league in 3-point accuracy making 39.1 percent from beyond the arc. The Spurs shot 41 percent from 3-point range against the Grizzlies in their first-round series. The Grizzlies were a much stronger defensive team than the Thunder. Then there is the Kawhi Leonard factor. The Rockets ranked 26th defensively. The Spurs, by contrast ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up 11 fewer points than Houston per game. The Rockets have no one who remotely can guard Leonard, who averaged 31.2 points in the series against the Grizzlies while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor and making 59 of 61 free throws. There isn't a better two-way player in basketball. The Rockets' main man, James Harden, has been bothered by an ankle injury. He shot just 13-of-41 for 31.7 percent from the field in Houston's last two games.
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| 04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
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Let's rewind to each team's opening playoff series. The Wizards showed a lot of heart and ability to make necessary adjustments in beating the Hawks. John Wall played great and a number of role players came through. The Wizards enter this Game 1 with a lot of well-earned confidence. The Celtics lost the first two games of their series against the Bulls with both defeats coming at home. Then Chicago lost point guard Rajon Rondo. The Bulls were forced to fill his spot with a pair of stiffs, Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant. The result was four straight losses. Now Boston, which could have been eliminated if Rondo didn't get injured, has to step up and deal with Wall at point guard instead of Canaan. Wall averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists against the Hawks. The All-Star is playing his finest ball making a strong statement that he is a superstar. The Celtics' big scorer is Isaiah Thomas, who doesn't play defense nearly as well as Wall. Thomas averaged nearly 29 points during the regular season, but was held six points below his average against the Bulls. Thomas' shooting was off, especially from 3-point range where he missed 23 of 26 during the last three games. It's understandable that his mental focus is affected by the recent death of his sister. The Wizards should be more effective in the frontcourt, too, where they don't have to deal anymore with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. I find Al Horford overrated and Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson are lunch-bucket role players. Note, too, that Boston has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home games. |
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| 04-29-17 | Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
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The Phillies are better than perceived winners of six of their last seven. If given 1 1/2 runs, they would be 15-3 in their last 18 games. They have a higher winning percentage than the Dodgers. The pitching matchup pits Zach Eflin against Brandon McCarthy. Eflin is way below the radar screen. He's retired 33 of the last 39 batters he's faced and holds a 2.25 ERA. Philadelphia is 7-3 in his last last 10 starts. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Eflin a surprise element. McCarthy also has a 2.25 ERA, but has gotten far more publicity pitching for the Dodgers and going 3-0. McCarthy isn't nearly this good a pitcher. He's due for regression and has never beaten the Phillies. Philadelphia has scored four or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games. The Dodgers rank 21st in runs scored at 4.2 per game.
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| 04-28-17 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
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I'm not ready to write off the Clippers. Not with them getting this many points in a must-win spot down 3-2 in the series. The Clippers' three losses in the series have been by a combined 13 points, an average of 4.3 points per defeat. The Clippers led by seven points with seven minutes left before losing Game 4 and they erased an 11-point Utah fourth-quarter lead in Game 5 before falling. The Clippers outscored the Jazz during the fourth quarter of Game 5. Now I like the Jazz. But I don't see their entitlement to lay this many points. What have they accomplished to earn this right? The last time Utah won a playoff series was seven years ago. They don't have the experience, or proven background, to close out a series favored by this many points. Just two years ago, the Clippers beat the Spurs on the road, 102-96, in a first-round playoff series after losing Game 5 at home. Yes, the Clippers accomplished that with Blake Griffin, who won't play today because of a toe injury. Griffin isn't the Clippers' best player, though. Chris Paul is and he gives the Clippers not only veteran leadership but the best player on the court. Big man DeAndre Jordan is the Clippers' second most valuable player. He can neutralize Rudy Gobbert. That matchup is a standoff. But Paul makes the Clippers very dangerous in this spot. The Clippers also have back guard Austin Rivers. He played 18 minutes in Game 5 after being out nearly a month with a hamstring injury. The Jazz have been fortunate that Joe Johnson has stepped up for them. He's Utah's second-leading scorer in the series averaging 18.2 points shooting 53.4 percent from the floor. During the regular season, Johnson averaged 9.2 points and shot 43.6 percent from the field. So he's due to cool off.
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| 04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
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There are no secrets this late in the second-round of the playoffs. Each team has won on its home-court. I see that pattern continuing here. The Grizzlies have beaten and covered the last four times they've hosted the Spurs, including Games 3 and 4 of this series. Kawhi Leonard is a monster. But Marc Gasol and Mike Conley give the Grizzlies the second and third-best players on the court. Conley provides the Grizzlies a backcourt edge as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are past their prime. Memphis' role players step up better at home, too. The Spurs were impressive in Game 5. But that was in San Antonio and the Spurs shot 52.5 percent from the floor, hit 14 of their 28 3-pointers and shot nearly 82 percent from the foul line. I don't see that happening in Memphis. The Grizzlies ranked third in fewest points allowed per game and also were third in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season.
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| 04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
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I'm not expecting Rajon Rondo to play in this Game 5. But I still like the Bulls to cover the number. Emotions and tensions have been raised in this series now that it's down to a two-out-of-three. Boston lacks the playoff experience and postseason record to close out teams let alone win by decent-sized margins such as this point spead. The Celtics are 2-5 SU and ATS in the playoffs under Brad Stevens. Their two victories occurred in overtime and by eight points, both against Atlanta. The Bulls, led by Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade, are 2-0 at TD Garden in the series. Boston has covered just one of its last nine home games. The Bulls, by contrast, have played well on the road covering eight of their last 10 away contests, including going 7-0 ATS the last seven times facing foes with a winning home mark. Chicago also is 7-1 ATS in its next game following a loss where the Celtics are 8-18 ATS after winning in their previous game. Stevens adjusted well following the Bulls winning the first two games of the series. His major change was going with a smaller lineup inserting Gerald Green into the starting five. The Celtics held the Bulls to a combined 40.1 percent shooting from the floor in evening the series by winning the last two games in Chicago. The Bulls now have had two games to get used to Boston's new lineup and not having Rondo to run their offense. The Bulls aren't a great shooting team, but they still shot 44.4 percent from the floor during the season.
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| 04-25-17 | Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
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Have to believe the Thunder can keep this game close trying to stave off elimination after having the Rockets edge them out in Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 games. Only once during their last 13 games have the Rockets won by more than seven points. Russell Westbrook is playing at the top of his game, while James Harden is dealing with an ankle injury. Harden was held to 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor on Sunday. He missed all seven of his 3-point shots. The Rockets, though, were bailed out by 34-year-old Nene, who scored 28 points on 12-of-12 shooting from the field. The Thunder's role players are due to play much better especially against such a vulnerable defense as the Rockets. Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Andre Roberson are all better than they've show so far in the series. |
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| 04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
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The Wizards are the better team and John Wall is the best player on the floor. The major question, though, is Washington mature enough to win on Atlanta's home court? I believe they are. The Wizards have a huge backcourt edge with Wall, who is averaging 31 points and 10 assists in the series, and Bradley Beal. They have helped force the Hawks to commit 51 turnovers so far in the series. The Hawks came back to soundly beat Washington, 116-98, at home in Game 3. But now the Wizards will be much better prepared. I see the Wizards having the poise to match the Hawks' intensity, which was at its peak in Game 3.
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| 04-23-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
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After losing the first two games in Houston, Oklahoma City needed to step up at home in Game 3. The Thunder did that - but barely winning 115-113 on Friday. Look for the superior team - Houston - to play better in this Game 4 and get the victory. The Rockets should play with more of a sense of urgency especially early after letting the Thunder build too big of a lead. Houston also is due to shoot better from 3-point range after hitting only 10 of 35 in Game 3 for 28.5 percent. The Rockets shot 35.7 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season. Russell Westbrook is a Triple Double machine. He's going to get his numbers. But James Harden is just as good and the Rockets have the better scoring role players with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams. I don't envision Taj Gibson having another monster performance like he did for Oklahoma City on Friday. The Rockets have dominated the Thunder from a pointspread perspective going 11-2 ATS during the past 13 meetings, including 6-0 ATS during the past six at Oklahoma City.
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| 04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
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If Golden State isn't the best team in the NBA than San Antonio is. The Spurs showed their dominance during the first two games of the series winning at home by 29 and 14 points, respectively. On Thursday, the teams played Game 3. Everything set up for the Grizzlies in that matchup. The Grizzlies were playing at home for the first time, David Fizdale had set up the officials by bitterly complaining after Game 2 and the Grizzlies' Big Three of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph all stepped up. The Grizzlies also got "A" type performances from their young role players. Game 3 was Memphis' time to win and the Grizzlies did just that, 105-94. Gregg Popovich, who I have long regarded as the best coach in basketball, may have hoisted the white flag in that game in order to set up a victory in this Game 4. A disgusted Popovich pulled all five of his starters less than a minute into the second half with his team trailing by nine points. All of this leads me to strongly believe the prideful and superior Spurs are going to step up here. If they do, the Spurs will win handily even if the Grizzlies can somehow conjure up a second straight "A" game performance, which I don't see happening. Memphis is 1-5 ATS following a victory, didn't play well down the stretch losing four of their last five regular-season games and has lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games to the Spurs.
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| 04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
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It's rare to see the Thunder getting this many points. But that's what happens after the Rockets destroyed the Thunder, 118-87, in Sunday's Game 1. I don't see a repeat. James Harden is a strong MVP candidate and Houston has the No. 2 ranked offense. But their defense isn't nearly as good as it looked in Game 1. Not only did Russell Westbrook have a rare off-game, missing 17 of 23 shots from the floor while committing nine turnovers, but shooting guard Victor Oladipo made only one of 12 shots from the floor. Oklahoma City's front line also played poorly losing the rebound battle by 15 boards. I see the prideful Westbrook and Oklahoma City bouncing back. The Thunder's underrated frontcourt shouldn't get outrebounded by the Rockets and Westbrook is due some calls in his personal battle with Harden, who schooled him in the opener of the series. Oklahoma City improved its road play down the stretch winning seven of its last nine regular season away contests while going 6-3 ATS. The Thunder also have covered five of the last six times when playing on two days rest. Until shellacking the Thunder, the Rockets had failed to cover in their last nine games.
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| 04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
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Forget Cleveland and Boston. The best team in the Eastern Conference right now very well could be Toronto. The Bucks have been playing well, but their playoff inexperience can really hurt them in this opening game especially playing in Toronto. The Raptors have dominated the Bucks beating them seven of the last eight times with the lone loss coming when the Raptors were missing Kyle Lowery. The Raptors won 10 playoff games last season. They are better this season with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker added to the mix upgrading their defense. Lowery and DeRozan also enter the playoffs far less fatigued than last season due to missing time with injuries. Lowery missed 21 games during the second half of the season because of a wrist injury. Toronto finished the post All-Star break ranked in the top-five in defense and rebounding. No other team can make that distinction. By contrast, Milwaukee ranked 19th defensively and 24th in rebounding. The last time the Bucks won a playoff series was 2000-2001. The Raptors are 25-4 the past 29 times holding an opponent under 100 points. The Bucks finished the regular-season averaging just 88.2 points during their past five games.
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| 04-14-17 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
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The Diamondbacks and Zach Greinke are playing much better than they did last season. Arizona is 7-3 with a new found sense of confidence and optimism. Greinke is past his shoulder issues that plagued him last season. He's 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his two starts this season. Compare this to Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA after giving up four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Rockies during his last start. That outing was at Coors Field. Kershaw figures to be much better at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Against Arizona, though, Kershaw has been good but not dominant sporting a lifetime mark of 12-8 with a 2.75 ERA. The total is less than seven here so few runs are expected. Asking the Dodgers to win by more than a run is asking a lot especially when LA gets one fewer at bat being the home team. The Dodgers just flew in from Chicago where they lost, 4-0, to the Cubs on Thursday. This is their first home game in more than a week. The loss to the Cubs completed a six-game road trip. Discount a 10-run performance against the Rockies at Coors and the Dodgers have scored seven runs in their last five games. While the Dodgers were changing two time zones, the Diamondbacks have been resting. They were idle Thursday. The Diamondbacks rank No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. Just two years ago, Greinke finished second in the National League Cy Young voting while pitching for the Dodgers. Greinke certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team and Kershaw. Arizona has won 10 of Greinke's last 13 road starts. The Diamondbacks are the better offensive team, have their own stud pitcher going and are in a good spot taking on an opponent that just concluded a long road trip. Kershaw is again way overpriced. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Diamondbacks is good insurance.
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| 04-13-17 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
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Expectations are high again for the Capitals entering the Stanley Cup, something they have failed to capture during this past decade despite winning seven division titles. I see the Capitals, 11-2-1 in their last 14 games, opening their first-round series with a victory against the Maple Leafs. So does the oddsmaker, who has made Washington better than a 2-to-1 favorite. I won't lay those odds instead taking a plus price on the puck line in the belief this game will be a blowout. Even it is tight, the Maple Leafs will be pulling their goalie earlier than usual if down by a goal late in the game thus increasing the chances of a multple goal winning game for Washington. This is just the third time the Maple Leafs have made the postseason since 2003-04. Toronto has some exciting young talent, but lacks the Captials' defense and playoff experience. Opening on the road makes it even more difficult for the Maple Leafs. Washington has won 76 percent of its past 78 home games, including going 32-7-2 this season. The Capitals have dominated the Maple Leafs winning seven of the last eight meetings. The Capitals had a down goal-scoring year from Alex Ovechkin - at least by his high standards - but still scored the third-most goals in the league. The Maple Leafs were fifth in goals scored, but are not used to the increased tight-checking that goes on in the playoffs. The Capitals also possess a huge edge in the nets with Braden Holtby, who had a career-best 2.07 GAA while leading the NHL with nine shutouts.
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| 04-12-17 | Spurs +4 v. Jazz | Top | 97-101 | Push | 0 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
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Gregg Popovich said he won't be resting players against Utah tonight. I take Popovich at his word especially since the Spurs are 1-3 in their last four games. Popovich doesn't want his team entering the playoffs flat plus the postseason won't start for a few more days so there's a rust factor he wants to avoid. So expect a strong effort from the Spurs. It's a bonus they are getting this many points. Utah knows it's not going to overtake the Clippers to earn the fourth-seed in the West and get first-round home-court advantage. Not when the Clippers are 15 1/2-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. Either way, the Jazz will be meeting the Clippers in the first-round of the playoffs. The Jazz have bigger priorities. They need to get the rust of point guard George Hill, who played on Monday against the Warriors after missing six games with a strained right groin. The Jazz have to get three starters - Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood - all healthy along with backup point guard Raul Neto. All of them missed Utah's last game. It's not a given they all will play against the Spurs. Hayward would be especially missed being the Jazz's top offensive player. The Jazz have a terrible track record, too, versus Western Conference foes going 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times facing them.
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| 04-10-17 | Nets +11 v. Celtics | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
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Boston isn't playing well enough to cover this inflated number. The Celtics have surrendered 114 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics have failed to cover during their last five home games and are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting below .500 teams. On tap for Boston is a revenge game against the Bucks at home on Wednesday. Brooklyn has been under the radar going 11-11 in its last 22 games, including going 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets have been getting contributions from unsung players such as Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Brooklyn is more respectable with Jeremy Lin healthy. Brook Lopez is having a nice season, too. The Nets have covered in seven of their last nine away contests. Only once in their last 14 games have they lost by double digits. They rank 12th in points per game so they have the offense to take advantage of Boston's recent defensive woes.
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| 04-09-17 | Wolves -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
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There are many reasons why I like the Timberwolves to cover this number. Some are obvious with the main one being Minnesota is the superior team. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins easily give the Timberwolves the two best players on the court. Ricky Rubio is having his finest career stretch averaging 19 points and 10 assists during his last 10 games. This, though, is build into the line. That's why Minnesota is a road favorite. To beat the line and cover the spread, though, we have to go beyond the obvious and look past the numbers. The Lakers have won three in a row beating the Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies. They haven't won four in a row all season. Prior to their win streak, the Lakers had lost 18 of 20. So what is going on? Have the Lakers really improved? No. They rank with the Nets, Suns and Kings as among the four worst teams in the NBA. During their win streak, the Lakers defeated the Kings, who are in tank mode, too. The Lakers beat the Spurs because Gregg Popovich didn't want his Spurs to win that game. That may have been the most bizarre game of the season, but I don't question Popovich, the best coach in the game. The Lakers did play hard in upsetting the Grizzlies at Staples Center, but Memphis was missing four rotation players, including their best big man, Marc Gasol. It's in the Lakers' best interest to LOSE. This is something management is well aware of and why the Lakers have been giving minutes to inexperienced bench players such as Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Tarick Black and Thomas Robinson. Even long-ago washed-up, mental patient Metta World Peace has averaged 13 minutes of playing time during the last two games. The Lakers now only have the third-worst record in the NBA passing the Suns. If the Lakers can sneak behind the Suns again to finish with the second-worst record instead of the third their chances of winning the lottery go from 47 percent to 56 percent. Improving their lottery odds is far more important to Lakers management than seeing their team win a meaningless April game against the Timberwolves. So you have to question LA's motivation here. That won't be the case with the Timberwolves and their fiery coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota entered its current four-game road trip winning three of four. But the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their road trip losing to the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Those teams are all extremely hard to beat at home. Thibodeau will be coaching hard - like he always does - and doesn't want to end this road swing going 0-4. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in class after their first three away contests. Thibodeau also will be reminding his team about their last visit to Staples Center against the Lakers. That was on March 24. The Timberwolves blew an eight-point lead with around 2 1/2 minutes left and lost in overtime.
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| 04-07-17 | Heat +6 v. Raptors | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
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Only twice in their last 16 games have the Heat lost by more than four points. I don't see Miami getting blown out here in a revenge spot from a 101-84 home loss to the Raptors and with the team back in sync following a blowout road victory against Charlotte in their last game. The Heat need every victory in their playoff quest. The Heat have covered 13 of their last 16 versus opponents with a winning record. They are 8-2 ATS on the road the past 10 times versus an above .500 home team. Erik Spoelstra has done a great job with Miami. I wouldn't argue if he were named Coach of the Year. This is Toronot's second game with Kyle Lowry back a point guard. So there's still an adjustment period.
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| 04-06-17 | Nets v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
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Orlando doesn't have much, if anything to play for this season, except for this game. The teams just met this past Saturday in Brooklyn and the Nets defeated the Magic, 121-111. Brooklyn has been playing its finest ball of the season. I acknowledge that. But the Nets still are one of the three worst teams in the NBA if not the worse. I like Orlando's talent much better than Brooklyn's especially with Aaron Gordon beginning to play better. Orlando is 2-2 in its last four home games with one of those lossess occurring to the Thunder in overtime. Only once in their last six visits have the Nets covered in Orlando. The Magic had also won five straight versus the Nets until losing on Saturday. The Magic won't lack motivation in this revenge spot. The Nets are due for a flat spot having won three in a row. They host the Bulls on Saturday in their final home game. So the spot is ripe for the Magic. They have home-court and the better talent. Add it up and it should result in a cover for the Magic.
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| 04-05-17 | Raptors +1 v. Pistons | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
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Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night. However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny. Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad. Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith. Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty. The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night. |
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| 04-04-17 | Bucks v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 79-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
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Oklahoma City is two levels higher than Milwaukee when playing at home, which is the case here. The Thunder have been dominant at Cheaspeake Energy Arena going 20-8-1 ATS the past 29 times. They've been especially strong versus weaker road teams going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times versus sub .500 road clubs. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times as home chalk, but is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. This includes a home loss to the Hornets two days ago in its last game. The Thunder is going for a high seed in the playoffs. Memphis, which would be the seventh-seed if the playoffs began now, is just 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely wants to avoid having to tangle with the Warriors or Spurs early in the playoffs. The Bucks could be short-handed in the backcourt if good-looking rookie guard Malcom Brogdon has to miss a third consecutive game because of back pain.
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| 04-02-17 | Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
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It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup. The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble. |
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| 04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 2 m | Show |
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Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here.
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| 04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
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Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks.
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| 03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.
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| 03-30-17 | Clippers v. Suns +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
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Writeup available shortly. |
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| 03-29-17 | Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
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No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant.
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| 03-28-17 | TCU -2.5 v. UCF | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
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TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level. |
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| 03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 90-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
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Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight.
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| 03-26-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
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The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort.
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| 03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
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This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina.
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| 03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
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Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
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| 03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
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Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage.
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| 03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
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Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
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| 03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
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The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
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| 03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | Top | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 62 h 56 m | Show |
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Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times. |
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| 03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
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This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
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| 03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
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Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game.
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| 03-18-17 | Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
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Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler. |
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| 03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
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Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
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| 03-17-17 | UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas | Top | 62-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
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UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here.
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| 03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
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Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them."
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| 03-14-17 | CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
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Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
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| 03-12-17 | Rhode Island v. VCU | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
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I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt.
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| 03-11-17 | New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 70-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
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| 03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
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Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
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| 03-09-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 114-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
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Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
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| 03-09-17 | CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
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These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
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| 03-08-17 | UNLV v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
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I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
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| 03-06-17 | BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 50-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
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BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points. |
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| 03-05-17 | Canucks v. Ducks -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
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This has blowout written all over it so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. Vancouver played its guts out in hanging on to a 4-3 road victory against the Kings last night. The Canucks were outshot, 44-21, and outplayed but survived in large part because of outstanding goaltending by Ryan Miller. The Canucks are not in shape for this quick turnaround. They are playing without rest and for the third time in four days. Miller will be exhausted if he has to play again today. If he doesn't than mediocre backup Jacob Markstrom would be in net. Vancouver has lost the past five times following a victory. Even with the win against the Kings, the Canucks are just 9-20-1-2 on the road. Long-term, Vancouver is 20-45 away. Anaheim is 20-7-2-1 at home with wins in four of its last five home contests. The Ducks got the rust off from their bye week beating the Maple Leafs, 5-2, at home this past Friday. The Ducks can't afford to take Vancouver lightly as their next five games are against the Predators, Blackhawks on the road, Blues on the road, Capitals and Blues again. |
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| 03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5 | Top | 85-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
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UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
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| 03-02-17 | Hornets -3 v. Suns | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
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Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.
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| 02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
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Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors.
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| 02-26-17 | Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
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Before diving into a breakdown of this matchup and why Georgia Tech getting this many points is the right side, let's examine the history. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have met seven times since the Irish joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. The games have been decided by 4.1 points. The Yellow Jackets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Notre Dame, including winning the first meeting this season, 62-60, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs on Jan. 28. Now, nearly, a month later that spread is almost double as the Irish host the Yellow Jackets. I say the line is much too high. Notre Dame has gotten back on track winning four in a row. The Irish win with offense averaging 84.3 points during their victory streak. However, the Irish haven't played in more than a week last in action on Feb. 18. That's too long to go without playing this late in the season. A certain freshness would be welcomed for tired teams down the stretch, but eight days between games means there's a good chance of rust, which would especially hurt an offensive-minded squad such as the Irish. There's a certain zig-zag this late in college basketball for NCAA Tournament bubble teams such as Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are bidding to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Their chances suffered a big blow when they lost at home to North Carolina State, 71-69, this past Tuesday. Josh Okogie had another big game with 25 points, but the Yellow Jackets hurt themselves by blowing 12 layups and going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the foul line. That tough defeat means the Yellow Jackets must - at the very least - win two of their final three games to have a shot at getting an NCAA berth. Those games are against the 21st-ranked Irish, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday and then playing at Syracuse. Georgia Tech has had four full days to brew about that missed opportunity against NC State. So look for the Yellow Jackets to throw their best punch at the Irish. They certainly are capable of beating good teams having defeated North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached, have shown fight and their starting lineup has talent especially Okogie, who has scored in double figures in 14 of his 15 conference games. Lack of depth is a problem, which could crop up against Pittsburgh on Tuesday in the short turnaround. Syracuse will be looking for revenge when the Orange play Georgia Tech at home. So this is a game the Yellow Jackets really need. Georgia Tech has covered nine of its last 12 ACC games and is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents. Notre Dame only has beaten one team by more than 12 points since Christmas.
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| 02-25-17 | Hawks -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
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Both Atlanta and Orlando opened post All-Star break with losses. The difference is the Hawks are far superior to Orlando and have their key cog back in the lineup. The Hawks were blasted by the Heat, 108-90, at home Friday night. The Heat were red-hot hitting 17 of 37 3-pointers while Atlanta made just 38 percent of its shots from the field. The Hawks were minus their floor general, point guard Dennis Schroder. Schroder, who is averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 assists, will play today. He was suspended just for the Magic game for failing to report back to the team on time after the All-Star break. The Magic played on Thursday losing at home to the Trail Blazers, 112-103. The Magic are 5-18 in their last 23 games, a demoralized bottom-feeder playing out the string while missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Orlando is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven home games. Long-term, the Magic are 6-19-1 ATS during their past 26 home contests. The Hawks helped themselves at break picking up Ersan Ilyasova, a heady veteran who can rebound and hit 3-pointers. The Hawks are 12-3 ATS when playing without rest. They should play much better today with Schroder back and with a chip on his shoulder and Ilyasova having played 16 minutes in his Hawks debut last night. The Magic have gotten even worse since All-Star break after trading Serge Ibaka. The Magic have had trouble containing former teammate Dwight Howard, who is shooting 76 percent against Orlando this season. The Hawks have beaten the Magic in their last two meetings winning by an average of 23 points.
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| 02-25-17 | Seton Hall -6.5 v. DePaul | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
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Seton Hall doesn't want to hurt its chances of making the NCAA Tournament by losing this game. The Pirates have won four of their last six games to get into Big Dance conversation. They destroyed the Blue Demons by 31 points when they played last month easily covering as 14-point favorites. DePaul is fat and happy after ending its 10-game losing streak in style with a 67-65 road win against Georgetown. The Blue Demons were 13 1/2-point 'dogs. DePaul is 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. I don't see DePaul pulling a second straight upset. The Blue Demons have lost their last three home games losing by 13 to Villanova, by 35 to Creighton and by 13 to Marquette. The Blue Demons have matchup issues against Seton Hall's big three of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez. All three players have scored 1,000 points this season. In the RIP rankings, Seton Hall ranked 48th as of Thursday with DePaul at 224. In the Pomeroy ratings, the Pirates were at 57 with DePaul at 183.
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| 02-24-17 | Nets v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 109-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
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This handicap works both ways. The Nets are the worst team in the NBA losers of 25 of their last 26, including their last 14. The Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the postseason began now. But Denver is in a precarious spot with the Kings, Trail Blazers and Pelicans all close behind. Denver suffered an embarrassing 116-100 road loss to the Kings last night. But playing last night is a huge plus for the Nuggets because they got their post All-Star break rust off. Three of their key players also returned to the lineup - Danilo Gallinari (groin), Kenneth Faried (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (illness) - after being out. Gallinari and Chandler played decently. The Nets now are the ones that are going to be rusty. A horrendous road team anyways with a 2-23 away mark, the Nets got even worse during All-Star break trading away their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic in order to play for the future. The youthful, immature and sure-to-be rusty Nets could have trouble focusing after being idle since Feb. 15. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have revenge motivation for a five-point road loss to the Nets. The Nuggets have a good coach, Michael Malone. He'll be stressing that the Nuggets can't afford to lose this home game to such a bad team. So Denver's urgency should be extremely high. Certainly the Nuggets have the firepower to blow out the Nets ranking fourth in scoring at 110.5 points a game. Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.2 points per game. Denver has covered in eight of its last 10 home games. The Nuggets also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times after losing by more than 10 points.
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| 02-22-17 | St. Louis +22 v. VCU | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
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VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace.
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| 02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
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I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points!
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| 02-20-17 | Texas +16 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
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Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times.
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| 02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
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Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed.
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| 02-14-17 | Dayton v. St. Louis +14 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.
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| 02-13-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
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OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test.
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| 02-13-17 | Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
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If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia.
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| 02-12-17 | Nevada +4 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
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These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes.
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| 02-11-17 | North Texas v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
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This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick. |
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| 02-09-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
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Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. |
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| 02-08-17 | Wizards v. Nets +10 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
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Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though.
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| 02-07-17 | Iowa State v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
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I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games.
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| 02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
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San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
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| 02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
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Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
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| 02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
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The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
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| 02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
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Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
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| 02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
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The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. |
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| 01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
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Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
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| 01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
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The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
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| 01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
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Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
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| 01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
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First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
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| 01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
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The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
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| 01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
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UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
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| 01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
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I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
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| 01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
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I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
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| 01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
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| 01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
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As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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| 01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
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Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
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| 01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
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You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
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| 01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
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Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
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