Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. 

This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana. 

Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record. 

Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. 
Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. 
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. 
The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season.
Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back. 

 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. 
The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. 
The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. 
The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. 
The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener.
The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. 
Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. 
Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. 
The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. 

The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. 

The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points.

The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center. 

Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call. 

This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right.
Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. 
The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State.
Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. 
The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.  

Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. 
Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. 
Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. 
This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. 
Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.
The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. 
I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24.

The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. 
The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. 
Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs. 

The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night.
Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. 
The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road. 

The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento.
Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. 
Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory. 

The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. 
The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. 
Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. 
The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. 
Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt. 

 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites.
UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. 
The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. 
UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. 

Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. 
The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. 
Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. 
The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot. 

Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too.
But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. 
The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando.
The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that.  
Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. 
James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent.
The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.  

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here.
Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. 
The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game.
Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. 
Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. 
The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games. 

It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. 
Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. 
Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. 
The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. 
This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well. 

The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games. 

Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. 
The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. 
Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. 
The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. 
During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that. 

Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender. 

The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat. 

This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis.
That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game.  
The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. 
Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. 
But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. 
Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. 
The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul.
The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday. 

The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the  worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once.
Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. 
Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season.
The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. 
The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest. 

This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. 
Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. 
New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. 
The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games. 

The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. 
Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games.
The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.

The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game. 

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points.
The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. 
While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season. 

Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. 
Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. 
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. 
 I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense. 

The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. 
Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. 
Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. 
The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. 
Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games.
There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game. 

The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. 
Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. 
Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. 
The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. 
During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points.
The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell. 

Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. 
The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot.
The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. 
The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. 
It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup. 

This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. 
The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday.
Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. 
The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game. 

Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. 

San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point.
Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. 
The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. 
The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. 
Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home. 

Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota. 

Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. 
I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. 
The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. 
Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. 
Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. 
Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk. 

California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice.
The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. 
Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup.
Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.  

Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. 
Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. 
This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. 
Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. 
Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. 
The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. 
Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game. 

This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. 
The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. 
Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. 
The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. 
The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. 
That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. 
Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week! 

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. 
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. 
It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. 
The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. 
Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. 
So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved. 

The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. 

But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. 
New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team.
Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. 
Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. 
LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. 
New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year.
There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team. 


 

I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.

UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. 
The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. 
Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. 
The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. 
This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times. 

While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play.  
So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight. 

It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors.
Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. 
The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. 
Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. 
The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. 
This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of. 

Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. 
The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog.  
Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. 
The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. 
The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings. 

 Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. 

The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. 

The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. 

Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

Edmonton is trying to clinch the Western Division. But the Eskimos are going to have problems doing that against Montreal.
The Alouettes are a desperate team trying to keep their prideful streak of making the playoffs a 20th consecutive year. They are in must-win mode.
Montreal looked good last week defeating Toronto, 34-2. That was the Argonauts' worst home loss since 2004. 
The Alouettes are giving up 16.3 points per game during their last three games. Now they're getting a boost on offense from quarterback Kevin Glenn, who will be playing in his third game for Montreal. 
Edmonton hasn't been impressive during the past month going 2-3 ATS. The Eskimos did defeat Saskatchewan by 11 laying nine points last week.
But In their previous four games, the Eskimos won by six laying 11 to British Columbia, won by a point giving six to Winnipeg, won by four against Calgary and won by three in overtime against British Columbia laying nine. 
Edmonton edged Montreal by three points in its earlier meeting this season. 

The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though.
Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. 
So why should things be different just five days later?
The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why.  
First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. 
Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. 
Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. 
Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors.
But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time. 

Clemson is sitting at 10-0 having destroyed Miami, 58-0, in its last game and with its biggest game of the season on deck versus Florida State on Nov. 7. 
The Tigers are in an ambush spot - and North Carolina State has the right ingredients and personnel to pull off the feat.
The Wolfpack are 5-2 SU and ATS. They have covered eight of their last 10 games going back to last season. They will be tremendously motivated having lost to Clemson each of the last three seasons, including 41-0 last year on the road. That was the worst loss in Dave Doeren's three years at North Carolina State. 
Clemson has its revenge game of the year on deck versus Florida State. That's the game the Tigers are pointing to not this one. 
The Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in total defense and have a very reliable quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He has a 33-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two seasons. 
Clemson has an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson. But the Wolfpack can play keep away. They rank second in the country in time of possession. 
Note, too, that North Carolina State is dangerous on special teams ranking first in the ACC in kick return yardage and punt return yardage. 

Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. 
Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. 
The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. 
The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. 
The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight. 

The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too.
It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr.
Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. 
Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. 
Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

Utah is in its fifth year in the Pac-12 and can play with the big boys. The Utes are 6-0 and it's a strong 6-0. They are the only team in the Pac-12 South without a loss. 
The Utes beat the Trojans last season, 24-21, and they are in great shape to do it again Saturday. Not only are the Utes a well-rounded power, but they catch USC in disarray. 
The Trojans have talent, like always, but they have under performed and been mismanaged. They are still cleaning up the Steve Sarkisian mess. 
Utah can match USC at the key skill position spots with quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devontae Booker, who ranks 10th nationally in rushing averaging 130.5 yards per game. 

San Diego State is playing its finest football limiting its last three opponents to an average of 9.3 points per game. The Aztecs have held opponents to 162.7 yards per game this month, lowest in the FBS for October. 
This is a huge game for both teams. But the timing is great for the Aztecs and not just because they are peaking. They catch Utah State traveling on a short week after the Aggies crushed Boise State, 52-26. That was one of the great victories in Utah State history. It also could mean a letdown this week. 
Utah State's lopsided win against Boise State, though, was a bit misleading. The Aggies converted eight turnovers into 35 points. The yardage was even.  
The Aggies have become even more of a running team with Kent Myers replacing Chuckie Keeton at quarterback. San Diego State has become extremely stingy allowing yards on the ground holding foes to 33.3 yards per game this month, best in the nation, and just 1.2 yards per carry this month. 
The Aztecs have a very good runner, D.J. Pumphrey. He's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last three games. San Diego State does not have a dynamic offense, but it is efficient. The Aztecs have scored on 94 percent of their drives inside the red zone. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

This is unbeaten Texas A&M's biggest game of the four-year era of Kevin Sumlin. Everything is in place for the Aggies to upset Alabama. 
The Crimson Tide are down a notch. The Aggies are a rising power. This is their chance to prove it - and they get Alabama at home, are rested after being idle last week and hold a powerful revenge incentive. 
The key question is how improved are the Aggies from the team that was humiliated 59-0 on the road by Alabama last year? 
The answer is much improved, enough to beat the Crimson Tide straight-up. 
Since that loss, the Aggies switched quarterbacks to Kyle Allen, hired respected defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU to improve their defense - which they have - and become more balanced offensively with a power ground attack spearheaded by Tra Carson. 
The Crimson Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are vulnerable to Texas A&M's up-tempo style. Alabama's major weakness is its secondary. The only team Alabama has faced that is similar in offense to Texas A&M was Mississippi. The Rebels exploited Alabama's secondary throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 43 points in a six-point victory. 
Allen has multiple stud wide receivers - Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones - to stretch the field plus reliable Carson on the ground to keep the Crimson Tide's defense honest. 

The Aggies rank 15th in the country in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game. Allen has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I like him and the Aggies' offense much more than Alabama's offense and its quarterback Jake Coker, who has an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Chavis is one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. He knows Alabama well from having been at LSU. The Tigers under Chavis held the Crimson Tide to under 22 points in all but one of their last five games. 
Chavis has two star edge pass rushers, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, to cause havoc for Coker. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12 1/2 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss while forcing five fumbles. 
The Crimson Tide has had to play Georgia and Arkansas the past two weeks. Texas A&M had a bye last week. The Aggies haven't left the state of Texas all season. They are rested and ready. Their time has come. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

When last spotted Utah was hammering Oregon, 62-20. That was two weeks ago. The Utes were idle last week. They are rested, prepared and have the offense and defense to cover this number against surprising Cal. 
Utah is stronger defensively than the Golden Bears and that defense gets even better with the return from injury of pass rusher supreme Hunter Dimick, who had double-digit sacks last season. 
Quarterback Travis Wilson heads a balanced Utah attack that also features Devontae Booker, who averages 111 yards rushing, and an offensive line that has allowed only one sack all season. 
I'm still leery about Cal's defensive improvement. Let's see how it holds up in this very tough road setting against a good offense. The Golden Bears rely on their excellent quarterback, Jared Goff. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdown passes and passing yards.
But I also like Utah's defense and special teams particularly punter Tom Hackett. I don't see the Golden Bears keeping this one within single digits. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

Oregon is down this season without Marcus Mariota, but do you believe Colorado can upset the Ducks? I sure don't. 
The Buffaloes, as we know, don't win Pac-12 games having lost 12 straight league contests. They draw an angry Ducks team fresh off a humiliating 62-20 pounding by Utah last week. 
Utah is better than advertised and Oregon still is several tiers above Colorado. I'm fine with whomever the Ducks use at quarterback, Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. The Buffs still have to deal with running back Royce Freeman, one of the best sophomores in the country with 450 yards rushing and 23 career rushing touchdowns. 
Oregon has beaten Colorado each of the past five seasons - and none of the games have been close. The Ducks won by 34 points last season and by 41 two years ago. 
Colorado is slightly improved and Oregon is down from a year ago, but the gap still remains at double-digits plus Oregon is going to be highly motivated to get on track with a lopsided victory. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

Arizona has covered five of the past six times it has hosted UCLA. Now it's the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bruins straight-up.
It's a triple revenge spot for Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez in his fourth season with the Wildcats. Arizona has knocked off six ranked foes during Rodriguez's tenure and is 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog. 
The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and their defense gets a huge lift with the expected return of linebacker Scooby Wright, last year's Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. He had missed the last two games because of a knee injury. 
The jury still is out on UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw three interceptions last week. This is his first Pac-12 road start. 
Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon has been much more steady with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Rosen's 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Solomon has completed better than 68 percent of his throws. He can rely on Nick Wilson, one of the best running backs in the conference, and a deep crop of receivers. 
The Wildcats rank among the top seven teams in the country in points, yards and rushing. They did pad their statistics by burying Northern Arizona last week, but were able to provide some rest to the their starters in the 64-point victory. So they should be fresh for this Pac-12 opener. 
The timing is right, too, for the Wildcats as they catch UCLA without three of its defensive starters, including star linebacker Myles Jack. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice this week. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

I tabbed Colorado to be much improved in Mike MacIntyre's third season and I like the Buffaloes strong in this rivalry matchup.
Colorado didn't show well opening week against Hawaii, but bounced back strong last Saturday destroying UMass. Note that this game is at a neutral site - Mile High Stadium in Denver. It's a big revenge spot for the Buffaloes, who blew a 10-point lead in last year's game.
Colorado can run the ball and have a tough rush defense. Only two Pac-12 schools have a better run defense than Colorado statistically-speaking. 
So far I haven't been impressed with the Mountain West Conference. So getting a Pac-12 school at this low price represents excellent line value. No team in the Mountain West has a worst turnover ratio than the Rams, who are minus 5.
Part of this stems from Colorado State undergoing a new offense and new regime under first year coach Mike Bobo. The Rams also are replacing their best quarterback ever, Garrett Grayson. 
I'm not as high on the Rams minus Grayson and their former coach, Jim McElwain. 

Toronto can stake its claim to being one of the best teams in baseball. Certainly, the Blue Jays have the No. 1 offense. 
The Blue Jays have won by more than one run in each of their last 13 victories. 
The Braves can stake their claim to being one of the worst teams in baseball as evidenced by 40 losses in their last 52 games. That's expansion level bad, which the Braves nearly are being in a clear rebuilding stage. 
Atlanta has lost by more than one run during its past 22 defeats. 
Sparked by the return of Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays got back to winning big on Wednesday crushing the Braves, 9-1. 
Toronto should do its customary damage against righty Matt Wisler. The Blue Jays are 25-9 in their last 34 games against a righthander. 
Wisler has been a disappointment. His results haven't matched the hype as he's 5-7 with a 5.60. He hasn't won since July 26. Atlanta is 0-6 in Wisler's last six starts. Twice in his last four starts Wisler has been rocked for seven earned runs while failing to reach the third inning. 
Meanwhile Toronto starter Marco Estrada has been consistently solid. Since the start of June, Estrada has gone 11-5 with a 3.11 ERA. Foes are batting only .204 against him during this span. Estrada has held opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. 

The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke.

Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly.

The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. 

The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. 

Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. 

Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. 

The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. 

But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. 

The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. 

The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head.
The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! 
Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. 
Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. 
The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt. 

When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. 

Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. 

The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. 

It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. 

This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.

The Royals have won 68 percent of their past 79 home games. They aren't going to lack for motivation here either having lost the first two games of this series to the White Sox by an embarrassing margin of 18-2. 
Prior to Friday, the Royals had beaten the White Sox 21 of 27 times. 
The Royals are the far superior team. They are going with their ace, Johnny Cueto, against call-up Erik Johnson. Cueto has lost his last three starts. But he's always been a strong day time pitcher and has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last three starts. I don't see him losing a fourth consecutive start especially in this pitching matchup and backed by the best bullpen in the majors.
Johnson really struggled when he pitched in the majors last season posting a 6.46 ERA. He's faced the Royals twice before in his career and surrendered 10 runs in 10 innings. 
This is a kill spot for the Royals, whose last three victories have been by an average of 7.3 runs. 



 

Too much of a class difference here for Wisconsin to stay within double digits of Alabama, especially being one-dimensional and lacking a passing attack. 

Nick Saban wants to come out of the gate smoking after losing 42-35 to Ohio State in bowl action last season. Wisconsin, by contrast, lost 59-0 to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin is in transition with a coaching change to Paul Chryst. Pittsburgh was a slow starter when Chryst coached the Panthers before coming to Wisconsin.

Alabama owns edges all over against the Badgers, who are more inexperienced the perceived defensively.  

Minnesota is not the pushover the oddsmaker and marketplace think it is. Not under Jerry Kill and his long time assistant staff. 
The Gophers have played in bowl games each of the last three seasons, including a New Year's Day Bowl game last season. 
Minnesota has covered nine of the last 13 it has been a 'dog under Kill. One of those non-covers occurred last season at TCU when the Gophers lost 30-7 as 18-point 'dogs. Minnesota had a cluster injury problem in its offensive line in that game and committed five turnovers. 
Now the Gophers are healthy and quarterback Mitch Leidner is more settled down being a junior with 16 starts behind him. 
TCU may very well be overrated by the linesmaker and public. A very good team, yes. A top four team ... no. Among their road games last season for the Horned Frogs was a one-point win against West Virginia, which went 7-6 in 2014, and a four-point victory against Kansas, which went just 3-9. 
If you discount that loss to TCU last year, the Gophers have covered seven in a row as double-digit underdogs the past two seasons. No, I'm not expecting an outright upset. But I do see the Gophers living up to their feisty underdog reputation at home in a revenge spot taking what I believe is an inflated number. 

The Royals are extremely tough at home and the Tigers have almost become an auto fade these days. 
Of course the oddsmaker knows this and that's why he's made this line so high. But to get around that it's safe to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Royals in this huge mismatch.
Detroit is 2-10 in its last 12 games with nine of those 10 defeats coming by more than one run. The Tigers' last three losses have been by a combined 32 runs! 
Don't look for rookie Matt Boyd to get Detroit back on track. The overmatched Boyd is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA. Boyd has given up six homers during his last three starts. 
The Royals are going with right-hander Edison Volquez, who usually is at his best against bad teams. Kansas City is 10-2 in Volquez's last 12 starts versus under .500 opponents. The Tigers also have dropped seven of their last eight when facing a righty. 

The Eagles are unbeaten in preseason. They've beaten the Colts by 26 points and Ravens by 23 points. 

Now the Eagles can bury another disinterested playoff team from last year, the Packers.

Green Bay just lost Jordy Nelson. The Packers are going to be missing three starting offensive linemen. That likely means they aren't going to risk Aaron Rodgers. 

The Eagles have a great offensive system in place. The Packers are not going to bother game-planning for it. 

Green Bay backup quarterback Scott Tolzien is out leaving untested and not ready for prime time rookie Bett Hundley and Matt Blanchard, who is terrible, to play quarterback for the Packers. Green Bay won't be able to trade points with the Eagles.  

Calgary leads the CFL's Western Division with a 6-2 mark. But the Stampeders have won only one game by more than five points with four of their victories coming by three points or less. 

Calgary wins, but doesn't cover spreads. The Stampeders have covered only one of their last nine games. They are 0-5-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. One of those non-covers for Calgary occurred last month when it just nipped Winnipeg, 26-25, as 7 1/2-point favorites. 

Winnipeg has a new quarterback, Robert Marve. He made his first start in replacing injured Drew Willy two weeks ago and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and interception in a 27-20 loss to Toronto.

The Blue Bombers haven't played since giving Marve an extra week to practice and prepare. That's huge. 

Calgary is on the road a second straight week and has a much bigger game on deck when it hosts Edmonton, it's main challenger in the West Division. 

The Stampeders could be without defensive end Charleston Hughes, who has been bothered by a bad back. It would hurt Winnipeg's pass rush if Hughes can't play. 

 Not only do the Blue Bombers have extra preparation time, but they picked up former Stampeders special teams and defensive player, Jasper Simmons. He won't play against Calgary because he doesn't know Winnipeg's system yet, but he can aid in the preparation knowing the Stampeders. 

Motivation is a big key during preseason. The Jaguars have it for this matchup. The Lions don't. 
Lions coach Jim Caldwell has lost 12 of 18 preseason games. Winning meaningless exhibition games isn't a priority for him. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 passes in Detroit's first two preseason games. I doubt he plays for too long, especially with the Lions breaking in a new right guard. Calvin Johnson isn't expected to play.
This is Jacksonville's final preseason home contest. The game is being televised nationally by CBS. Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Jacksonville management has different priorities than the Lions. They want to build up sagging fan interest and gain needed confidence.
Bradley hasn't pulled Blake Bortles until late in the second quarter. Bradley is likely to use Bortles and his starters well into the second half in order to prepare for the season and appease the home fans while trying to look good on national TV. 
Jacksonville's offense and defense has played well at times during preseason. The Lions obviously are the better team, but they don't have great depth and lack the home team's motivation. Bortles is much better than Detroit's backup quarterbacks. 

The Nationals are getting well and their confidence up against the Rockies, losers of eight of their last nine games. Every one of the Rockies' losses during this span have been by at least two runs.
Washington has won the first two games of this series by an average of six runs and now has its best pitcher going, Max Scherzer. The Nationals are 8-3 the past 11 times Scherzer has been a road favorite. Scherzer's road ERA this season is 2.41.
The Rockies are going with a bottom of rotation guy, Yohan Flande, who has a 4.19 ERA and owns a 5.87 lifetime ERA against the Nationals in three starts.
Colorado may have the worst bullpen in the majors and Flande hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a game all season. Colorado is 2-9 the last 11 times Flande has been an underdog.
The Nationals' last five victories have been by an average of 5.4 runs.
Simply put, this is a kill spot for the Nationals.

Not only do the Steelers have the advantage of having played one game already this preseason, but Mike Tomlin wants to win this matchup after Pittsburgh lost 14-3 to the Vikings during the Hall of Fame Game this past Sunday.
Tomlin held out his offensive stars against the Vikings, but Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Maurkice Pouncey and Heath Miller are all going to play against the Jaguars. Backup Pittsburgh quarterback Landry Jones should show better, too, after playing the entire Hall of Fame game.
The Steelers have had more time to get into place their system and schemes thanks to having played in the Hall of Fame game. They won't be so vanilla. Jacksonville is 2-6 in preseason during the Gus Bradley era.
The Jaguars lack depth to do well in preseason. That's the situation again with the Jaguars, especially in their defensive line where they already are dealing with an abundance of injuries.
If there was a plus to the Steelers' first preseason game it was the play of their defense, which has gotten considerably younger but now plays faster. The Steelers held the Vikings to an average of three yards per run and stopped them on 10 of 13 third downs.
One of the Jacksonville's priorities is to find a ground game, something it has failed to accomplish during Bradley's coaching tenure. Rookie TJ Yeldon may be the Jaguars' best runner and he might get held out of this game because of a sprained finger.
There is no reason for the Jaguars to risk Yeldon and quarterback Blake Bortles in this their first preseason game.

The Bears are home, have the better backup skill position players and a better coaching staff than the Dolphins.
New coach John Fox is anxious to get the Bears pointed in the right direction after last season's disaster under Marc Trestman. Fox brings an all-star collection of assistant coaches with him - offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
I'm not a fan of Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are experiencing offensive line problems and have nothing to prove here. The Bears do.
Chicago also has the better second-stringers at the skill position spots
Jay Cutler is expected to play a little and he should be fired-up to show the new coaching staff that he can be counted on. Backing up Cutler is veteran Jimmy Clausen, David Fales and Shane Carden, who the Bears like a lot. Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford are underrated backup running backs to Matt Forte.

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, the Dodgers are just 12-10 in his starts this season. If you give the opponent 1 1/2 runs, the Dodgers are 11-11 with Kershaw on the mound.
Runs are going to be extremely hard to come by in this matchup so asking the Dodgers - the home team - to win by more than one run is a tall order.
The left-handed Kershaw wasn't sharp in his previous outing against Pittsburgh. The Nationals' key right-handed bats are all hot right now with Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth picking up their games. They can cause problems for Kershaw. It's an added plus for Washington if Bryce Harper returns to the lineup today as expected.
If Kershaw can't reach the ninth inning the Dodgers are extremely vulnerable as their setup relievers have not been good.
Jordan Zimmerman is one of the better pitchers in the NL and has been for the last several seasons. Washington has won 67 percent of Zimmerman's last 104 starts. Zimmerman has a 2.51 ERA in his last three stars against the Dodgers, who have lost six of the past seven times they've faced Zimmerman. 

Different motivations for these two teams. The Vikings and their pugnacious coach, Mike Zimmer, want to keep proving themselves. Zimmer is stressing winning early even talking Super Bowl.
That talk is crazy, but the Vikings are improved and Zimmer wants to establish a winning mindset early. So I see the justification in Minnesota being favored.
The Steelers returned to the playoffs last season. Their early-season priorities are different than Minnesota's. Mike Tomlin wants to find out who his main running backs are going to be with Le'Veon Bell suspended for the first two games.
Pittsburgh is undergoing massive defensive changes, too, while the Vikings are in the second year of Zimmer's defensive scheme. Long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau no longer is with the Steelers. The Steelers are transitioning to youth on defense and will be going through growing pains early.
Backup quarterbacks are huge when getting involved in preseason and the Vikings own the edge there with veteran second-stringer Shaun Hill, one of the best backups in the league. 

Clayton Kershaw is showing serious signs of matching last year's out-of-this-world pitching numbers. The 27-year-old still is in his absolute prime. He's only given up two earned runs with 43 strikeouts during his last four starts spanning 31 innings.
Kershaw is enjoying the best strikeout rate of his career with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last four games.
The Mets are in the argument for weakest offense in the majors. They rank last in batting average, second-to-last in OPS and third-from-the-bottom in runs.  
Making this such a strong run line play is the Dodgers offense should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Bartolo Colon and a Mets bullpen that has fatigue issues.
The 42-year-old Colon pitches his best early in the season before he begins to wear down, which is the case now. Colon has yielded 21 runs on 37 hits during his last four starts - all losses - spanning 20 2/3 innings.
Colon doesn't have a good history versus the Dodgers either. The righty has a 2-4 lifetime mark with a 6.03 ERA. The Dodgers trail only Colorado in slugging percentage against right-handers. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Stampeders have not looked good during their first two games. Their lackluster play caught up to them last week as they were upset by Montreal as a 9 1/2-point road favorite.
Toronto, on the other hand, is riding high posting upset victories against Edmonton and Saskatchewan.
Expect things to get back into a natural order with this matchup. Toronto is off an emotional overtime victory and on the road a third straight week. The Argonauts are stepping up in class. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory.
Bo Levi Mitchell and Calgary's offense are out of the gates slow. But the Stampeders have proven offensive talent, which should pick up now that Mitchell has gotten some of the kinks out and will have speedy wide receiver Jeff Fuller back.
Toronto fill-in quarterback Trevor Harris has been playing well above his head. Expect him to come back down to Earth.
The Stampeders have covered eight of the last nine times they've played a foe with a winning mark and are 23-7 (77%) ATS in their last 30 games following a loss so they have a good history in these type of spots.

Rookie quarterback Rakeem Cato stepped up big last week to spark Montreal to a 29-11 upset win over Calgary, the defending Grey Cup champions. That win came at home and the Alouettes caught the Stampeders in a flat spot.
Now Montreal is in the flat spot and on the road, too. Winnipeg isn't going to take Montreal lightly like Calgary did. The Blue Bombers are off an embarrassing loss to the Tiger-Cats.
The line isn't that high because Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy Cato got banged-up last week. He's expected to be fine this week, though. Montreal's defense has been tough the first two weeks but I'm not sold on it. Winnipeg has some dangerous skill position players that I see the Alouettes having problems covering.
Note, too, that Montreal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Winnipeg and has failed to cover the past four times overall when playing the Blue Bombers.