As great as Clayton Kershaw is, his record would be just 6-6 in his last 12 starts if the Dodgers were minus 1 1/2 runs. If there is one team that has been competitive against Kershaw it's the Diamondbacks. Kershaw is 11-8 against them with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw is 1-6 during his last seven starts at Chase Field.
The Dodgers rank 27th in batting average and OPS. They are a predominantly right-handed hitting team, a negative when going against southpaw Patrick Corbin. Only three times in their last 16 games have the Dodgers scored more than four runs. Their bullpen is below average aside from star closer Kenley Jansen. LA already has blown nine saves on the road. 
Paul Goldschmidt, the Diamondbacks' key hitter, has a strong history versus the Dodgers and is batting .391 since May 27. The Diamondbacks are much stronger offensively versus lefties, too. 
Corbin had a 2.97 ERA at Chase Field in 2013 and a 3.11 ERA at home last season with a 44-to-six-strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's had a down season so far this year, but has recently showed signs of regaining his one-time All-Star form. 

Kyle Hendricks hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-3 with a 4.37 road ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home. This also is the Phillies' third look already at Hendricks having just faced him two starts ago. 
Philadelphia's offense has picked up with the call-up of Tommy Joseph and picking up Jimmy Paredes. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is underrated having made seven of 11 quality starts this season. The Phillies' bullpen also is underrated having been quite good this season. 

The Twins are even worse than thought. They are 5-20 in their last 25 games, owners of the worst road record in the American League at 4-19. They have lost the past seven times following an off day. 
I don't see those numbers improving as Minnesota travels to Seattle to take on a hot Mariners club - 7-2 last in its last nine games - and going against Felix Hernandez with rookie Pat Dean. 
Hernandez has some mileage, but is still an elite pitcher. He's in good form, too, with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts. Hernandez has dominated Minnesota also going 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last five starts against the Twins with a 1.93 lifetime ERA in 17 outings.
The Twins are last in the American League in runs scored. Seattle, on the other hand, is swinging hot bats. If you discount a 5-0 loss to Rich Hill three games ago, the Mariners are averaging seven runs during their last six games. Dean is making just his second big league start. 

Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses.
But it's too difficult for me to turn down this many points considering how much the Thunder have outplayed the Warriors during Games 3 and 4 winning by a combined 52 points. 

Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers.

Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. 

The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. 
The Cavaliers blew out the Raptors last night after losing two in a row. But there's a class difference between those two teams. There isn't a class difference between these two teams. If there is, it's the Thunder being much better than the Warriors right now. 

OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. 
There is no way a game like that happens to Cleveland in Game 4. I fully expect to see the Cavaliers play their "A" game. Even their "B" game should be enough to cover this number. 
Toronto had its moment. Now things revert back. The Cavaliers buried the Raptors by 31 and 19 points, respectively, during the first two games of this series. The Cavaliers are - and always will be - in control of this series. They totally outclass the Raptors, who have gone as far as they can go. 
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Co. buried the Pistons and Hawks. The Raptors are next in line. 
Toronto has failed to cover six of the past seven times following a victory. The Raptors also are 4-10 ATS versus foes with a winning record. 

Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. 
No, I don't see the Raptors pulling off an upset for the ages here. But I do see a better situation for Toronto and a strong effort forthcoming. That should ensure the Raptors of staying within a dozen points of Cleveland.
Keep in mind, the Raptors were tired and obviously flat in Game 1 this past Tuesday having just finished a grueling seven-game series against Miami on Sunday. The opener against Cleveland was Toronto's third game at a different gym in five days. Only one day to prepare and regroup to face the Cavaliers wasn't nearly enough.
Now the Raptors have been at the same venue for three days. So look for a lot fresher Raptors team especially star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, who saw their shortest playing time against the Cavaliers in any playoff game. 
Toronto has proven to be resilient and tough following a loss covering seven of the past 10 times in that instance. Each time the Raptors lost in the playoffs, too, they bounced back with a victory going 6-0 in these spots. The Raptors also are 13-5 ATS the past 18 times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Raptors had a better record than Detroit and Atlanta. Yet the Cavaliers were 10 1/2 and 11-point home favorites against the Pistons in the playoffs and minus 7 and 7 1/2 versus the Hawks at home in the playoffs. 
So the Cavaliers certainly are paying a premium for their lopsided Game 1 victory. I'll take the value with an underdog that has much to prove, including a lot of self-respect, following Game 1. 

The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points.
Now I'm not saying Golden State is going to bury the Thunder like that, but I do believe the timing and matchup is right for the Warriors to win by double digits in this opener of the Western Conference finals. 
The Warriors have a tremendous home floor as evidenced by losing just once at Oracle Arena all season. Golden State went 3-0 versus Oklahoma City during the regular season winning at home against the Thunder by 15 and 8 points, respectively. The Warriors have covered in seven of their last eight home game, including going 5-1 ATS during the playoffs.  
Now much of that is factored into the line. What's isn't built as much into the line is the belief that the Warriors have the versatility, flexibility, superior coaching and athletic talent to take advantage of being off for four full days and counter the Thunder's rebounding edge. 
Oklahoma City was able to beat San Antonio by dominating the Spurs on the boards. That forced the Spurs into a deliberate style where they had to rely on a mediocre perimeter game. San Antonio got out of sync. Some of the Spurs showed their considerable age.
The Warriors' talent are in their prime. Stephen Curry proved he's back from his knee injury averaging 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds during the final two games of Golden State's semifinal victory over the Trail Blazers. Curry and banged-up center Andrew Bogut should heavily benefit from the extra time off between series. 
I expect the Warriors to be in sync and able to hurt the Thunder via fast breaks, something the older and slower Spurs were unable to do. The Thunder aren't going to be able to beat the Warriors like they did the Spurs. That difference is going to manifest itself in this Game 1. There's also the chance the Thunder still are on a big high from upsetting the Spurs and not able to settle down for this much different opponent especially being on the road.  

I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong. 

Since getting blown out in Game 1, the Thunder has won three of four winning by one on the road, 14 at home and by four points on the road while losing by four points in Game 3 at home. The Thunder has outrebounded the Spurs in each of these past four games. And that's the key to this game and the series.
The Spurs and Popovich are limited in what they can plan and do when Oklahoma City is controlling the boards. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding this season. They outrebounded the Spurs by 18 boards in Tuesday's Game 5 victory. Unsung Steven Adams is coming up big. There is no fluke to Oklahoma City controlling the backboard. 
This is what Tony Parker was quoted as saying following the Spurs' Game 5 loss: "We know that's (rebounding) the key of the series. We know we have to control the boards. We made a lot of stops tonight (Tuesday), but we just can't get the boards and it's killing us in the end. Control the boards. I think that's the key of the series. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score." 
Popovich has tried to limit superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook by playing more half-court offense. The Spurs actually were getting needed stops in Game 5 holding Durant and Westbrook to a combined 20 of 48 (41.6 percent) shooting from the floor. But the Thunder still were able to upset the Spurs in San Antonio by their rebounding dominance. That's not going to change especially with the venue being moved now to Oklahoma City and the Thunder that much more confident. 
San Antonio built a 67-15 regular-season record by steamrolling lesser foes. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when facing foes with a winning mark above .600. They also have failed to cover seven of the last 10 times following a loss. 
Oklahoma City is playing its finest basketball right now. The Thunder certainly are capable of winning a championship. They are 12-4 ATS the past 16 times meeting opponents with a winning record. 
The Thunder also have covered seven of their last nine games against San Antonio and are 12-3 ATS the last 15 times hosting the Thunder. 

Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. 
The Spurs have much on their plate already dealing with Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now Adams has to be accounted for, too. 
Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times on the road going against an opponent with a home winning percentage above .600. The Spurs fattened their record during the season burying patsies. They are 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
Yes, home-court means a lot. I respect the heck out of San Antonio and Gregg Popovich especially when playing at home. But this line is inflated enough to get involved with Oklahoma City. 

The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. 
The oddsmaker is well aware of this. It's certainly no bargain laying this many points with the Raptors. But I'm confident the handicap will hold. This is Toronto's game to win. 
Toronto is the younger team with much to prove especially All-Star Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the old gunslingers. They managed to thwart off the Raptors' late challenge in Game 1, but Dwayne Wade doesn't have much spring in his step and Hassan Whiteside isn't 100 percent. Both teams had to go the full seven games to win their first-round series. The Heat are the older team and had to come back from being down 3-2 to Charlotte to pull it off. The Heat will be the more fatigued team on Thursday, in action for the third time in five days having gone from home to Charlotte to Toronto.  
Even defeating the Raptors in Game 1, Miami still has only covered three of its past 11 road matchups. 
It's easy to get down on Toronto for not winning at home in Game 1. Still, let's not forget the Raptors had a better season record than Miami by a whopping eight games, won three of four against the Heat during the regular season and is playing at Air Canada Centre where they averaged 104.4 points per game. 
Now this isn't to cast a blind eye to how poorly DeMar DeRozan and Lowry are playing. The Raptors live-and-die with their two backcourt All-Stars. Toronto's backcourt shot just 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the floor in Game 1. Lowry had a mere seven points, including a half-court 3-pointer that forced overtime. Miami, by contrast, had its backcourt connect on 20 of 41 (48.7 percent) shots from the field. Yet the Raptors still took the Heat to overtime. 
Lowry and DeRozan didn't play well either in the Raptors' first-round series against the Pacers combining to shoot less than 32 percent from the field. During the season, the Raptors hit 37 percent of their 3-pointers. Only four teams had a higher percentage. 
Toronto's backcourt stars are well overdue to shoot much better. If those two just have their average games, the Raptors should easily prevail given how well some of their other players such as center Jonas Valanciunas are performing.  
I'm not advocating the Raptors are the superior team and should win the series. But I do believe the zig-zag pattern is a fit here. It's a natural letdown spot for the Heat while the Raptors should display a game-of-the-year type mentality. 

A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. 
The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. 
Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. 
The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. 
Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.  

No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams.
We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. 
But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. 
This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." 
Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. 
The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs. 

I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.

Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. 
Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. 
Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. 
The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance.  
Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. 
Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season.  
The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm. 

Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan. 

Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. 
The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. 
Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips. 
 

I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets.

The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever. 

San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field.
The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. 
It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. 
The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason. 

This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. 
Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. 
The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers. 

Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue. 

Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness. 

The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.

Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

 

Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. 
The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. 
The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City.
I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined. 

We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. 
The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing.
I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington.
But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season.
The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.

After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February.
Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. 
The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season.  
Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season.  
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. 
The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors. 

Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. 
This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS.
Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. 
Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest. 

The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State.
The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz.
Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points.  
Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. 
So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.  

I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.
That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. 
Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. 
"That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season."
A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. 
Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.

Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. 
This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. 
The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. 
If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. 
During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. 
The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers. 

These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. 
The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. 
Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah.  
The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs  Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. 
I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent. 

I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. 
The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. 
I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. 
The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents. 

This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days.
The Nets have defeated the Hornets six of the past eight times at home. Brook Lopez, the Nets' best player, is expected to play after sitting because of a virus in the Nets' last game, a 115-103 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Nets are 7-4 ATS the past 11 times Lopez has played. Lopez's presence is huge because the Nets lack an inside game without him. 
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and also is 8-2 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. 

A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs.
This is something Jason Kidd realizes. That's why he's made the decision to cut back on his starter's minutes and use the rest of the season to evaluate his entire roster. 
That decision helps make the Pistons even a stronger home favorite against the Bucks. 
Detroit defeated Milwaukee, 102-91, on Feb. 27 in the team's last meeting. That was in Milwaukee and the Pistons won despite making just 42 percent of their shots from the floor. The Pistons hold two strong edges on the Bucks - rebounding and point guard play with Reggie Jackson. The Bucks are thin at the key position. Michael Carter-Williams is out for the year. So is O.J. Mayo, who while not a true point guard was taking some of the load off by helping out with the ballhandling. 
The Bucks were outrebounded by the Jazz, 45-27, last night grabbing a laughable two offensive rebounds. Utah ranks fifth in the league in rebounding margin. Detroit is fourth. Andre Drummond is the No. 1 rebounder in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding margin. 
The spot is good also for Detroit. The Pistons are in the fourth of a franchise-long nine straight home games. They are 20-11-2 (64%) ATS at home this season. Detroit also is 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times hosting a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 
The Pistons are mere percentage points out of the final playoff spot in the East. They know the path to the playoffs lies in beating bad teams at home. Stan Van Gundy ripped Detroit's lack of defense in its last game, a lackluster 115-103 win against the Nets this past Saturday. 
Milwaukee is 9-26 in its road games. The Bucks have a losing spread mark away from home. They are playing without rest and finally realizing their playoff hopes aren't going to happen. 

Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice.

Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court.

Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season.

Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites. 

Now the Clippers draw a team as decimated with injuries as the Grizzlies in the Pelicans. New Orleans has five players out for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. They soon may be joined by Anthony Davis, the team's one star.
Davis missed the second half of New Orleans' last game this past Friday with knee soreness. He also has a sore shoulder. There is talk the Pelicans may shut Davis down for the season since they aren't making the playoffs. Davis certainly isn't likely to play today. All of this has to be disheartening to an already disheartened Pelicans team. 
New Orleans is 2-9 in its last 11 games. The Pelicans' only victories during this span have come against the Kings. They are 2-7 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall games. 
The Clippers have a good history of bouncing back - 9-2 ATS the past 11 times following a loss - and have defeated the Pelicans in all three meetings this season and 11 of the last 13 times.  

The Clippers are less awesome minus Blake Griffin. They don't have the star power to cover double-digit type road spreads in letdown spots, which this matchup is for them. 

The Clippers just buried the Rockets in Houston two nights ago in a highly-satisfying grudge match victory. Before that game, the Clippers played the Spurs and hosted the Cavaliers in a nationally televised matchup this past Sunday. Now the Clippers get the crippled Grizzlies. This is LA's third of five straight road games. The Clippers play at New Orleans on Sunday and then travel to Golden State in a real test matchup for them. So this looms as a flat spot for the Clippers.
LA is 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win and can be excused if it doesn't take the Grizzlies serious. Memphis is down Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies' third best player, Zach Randolph, has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row, three of those coming on the road. They are fighting hard to maintain their playoff spot. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies, who always have held a strong home-court. Memphis has won five of its last seven games at FedEx Forum despite its injuries. The Grizzlies have covered 73 percent of their last 22 home contests. They also have covered in 11 of the past 13 meetings versus the Clippers.
There's a chance both Randolph and Vince Carter, who has missed the last four games with a strained calf, return for this game. That would be an added bonus but I like the Grizzlies in this spread range even at far less than 100 percent. 
Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, two emotional players and former Clippers, are playing at high levels for Memphis. Stephenson is averaging 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in his last four games, while Barnes has contributed an average of 16 points and 8.2 rebounds during his last five games. Both of these players will be sky-high for this matchup. 

The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. 
Baylor is way too athletic and talented for Yale, which has been able to feast on Ivy League competition while the Bears have gone against some of the best teams in the country. 
There is no chance either of Baylor overlooking the Bulldogs after the Bears were stunned, 57-56, by 14th-seeded Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. 
Yale hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 1962! The Bulldogs also have been distracted by team captain Jack Montague's recent expulsion from the school amid rumors of sexual misconduct. He was the team's fourth leading scorer. 

Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. 
San Diego State is not rested and is not excited about hosting this NIT matchup. It's a huge letdown for the Aztecs to play in the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. This is a short turnaround for San Diego State having played for the third time in three days this past Saturday. The Aztecs have had a sellout during their last 72 home games. That streak is going to end here as Viejas Arena only is expected to be half full. I don't see the Aztecs being mentally and physically ready to cover this big of a number. 
San Diego State has the No. 4 defense in the country. However, the Aztecs average only 68 points per game and their Mountain West Conference had a down season this year. San Diego State also has concerns about the health of its backcourt. 
IPFW has an RPI rating of 72, which is comparable to the rating Fresno State had prior to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs upset the Aztecs, 68-63, to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. 
The Mastodons have the best player in the Summit league in guard Max Landis. They are well rested since the Summit League's tournament was played the previous week giving the Mastodons an eight-day break to recharge their batteries. 
IPFW can score averaging 80.2 points a game, 26th-best in the nation. The Mastodons rank fourth in the country in 3-pointers made and are eighth in shooting percentage. The Mastodons also are road tested having played 20 times away from Fort Wayne while going 12-4 (75%) ATS in their lined road contests. 

Short-handed New Orleans is way overmatched to begin with and the situation makes it worse.
New Orleans is 1-7 in its last eight games. This marks the depth-shy Pelicans' third road game in four days and fourth in six days. They have lost five players for the season, including two of their top four players in Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans also could be missing point guard Norris Cole for a fourth straight game. He's dealing with a back problem. 
The Pelicans are 7-26 on the road with five straight road losses. They stand a far better chance of winning away from home in their next game when they meet Sacramento on Wednesday. 
Golden State ranks No. 1 in points per game and 3-point shooting. No guard tandem comes close to making as many 3-pointers as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 
The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. They can't stop the Warriors. They can only hope to stay within shouting distance. That's likely going to mean a strong game from their streak-shooting top 3-point man, Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson is in a cold spell missing 23 of 28 shots from beyond the arc during the last five games. 

The Warriors own the best start in NBA history at 59-6. They are 30-0 at home. They have beaten the Pelicans eight times in a row at home. You always worry about a team being overconfident and flat when laying this many points. But I see the Warriors maintaining their intensity. 
Golden State received a wake-up call from the Suns during its last game, a 123-116 home win two days ago. The Warriors trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter in that game. The Warriors do not play again until Wednesday when it hosts the Knicks. So there is no look-ahead negative factor. The Warriors have dominated Western Conference foes, too, ATS-wise going 21-10-1 (68 percent) the past 32 times. 
 

Nearly decimated New Orleans gave it all it had before losing in overtime to Memphis last night. The Pelicans have lost five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. All but one of New Orleans' starters played at least 41 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 47 minutes. Top reserve Ryan Anderson went nearly 37 minutes. Point guard Norris Cole didn't play and is questionable for this matchup. 
This is the Pelicans' fourth game in six days. The Bucks have been idle since Wednesday and have a strong revenge motivation after the Pelicans embarrassed them, 116-99, at New Orleans on Jan. 23. The Pelicans shot an incredible 17 of 31 from 3-point range in that win. 
New Orleans is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention. The Pelicans are 7-25 on the road, including losing 23 of their past 30 away contests. The Bucks are seven games above .500 at home. 

Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. 
Colorado State isn't as deep as Fresno State and is playing for the third time in three days. The Rams played in the late game last night exerting a lot of energy in upsetting Boise State, 88-81, as a seven-point underdog. 
The Bulldogs have the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Marvelle Harris and beat Colorado State during their lone meeting this season, 87-73, at home on nine days ago. 

Phoenix is 3-2 in its last five games and coming off an impressive 109-100 road win against the Grizzlies this past Sunday. But don't for an instant think the Suns are any good. They aren't. Neither are the Knicks. This is bad on bad and the point spread has become out of whack here.
The Knicks opened three-point favorites. Now that's been reversed. This is a clear over adjustment. The Suns not only have failed to cover the last four times they were home favorites, but lost straight-up each time. They also were 0-10 ATS following a victory until upsetting Memphis. 
Carmelo Anthony will be the best player on the court and he's been hot - averaging 26.4 points in his last five games. Star Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis should be less rusty, too, after shooting just 3-for-11 from the field in last night's road loss to the Nuggets. He had missed the game before that with a bruised leg. 
The Knicks were bad in that loss. But in their two prior games, they beat the Pistons by 13 at home and lost to the hot Celtics by one point on the road. New York was 3-0 ATS in its last three away contests before laying an egg against the Nuggets.  

Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left.
So Penn has strong revenge motivation for this final game of the season. Keep in mind there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League. That's a bad break for the Tigers, whose hopes of winning the conference were dashed when Yale clinched the title with a victory this past Saturday. 
Princeton is way overpriced in this matchup. Not only has Penn covered 13 of the last 16 in this series, including four of the past five, but the Tigers are 1-4 in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS at home versus foes with losing road records. The Tigers also are 0-4 ATS the past four times following a victory. 

I want the Warriors off their most shocking and worst-played game of the season, a 112-95 road loss to the Lakers Sunday afternoon. The Warriors haven't shot as bad from 3-point range as they did against the Lakers - 4-for-30 - since December of 2013. 
I have to believe the Warriors are going to be in a super kill mood returning home where a victory tonight would break the Bulls' NBA record for consecutive home wins. The Warriors scheduled a shootaround today even though they played yesterday. It's the first time they have had a shootaround the day of a game when playing without rest and it demonstrates how serious they are taking this matchup. 
Golden State is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing on the second of consecutive days and also 15-5 ATS the past 20 times after not covering the spread during their last game. 
Orlando couldn't give the Warriors a battle when it was in a much better spot playing at home on Feb. 25. The Magic lost 130-114 as eight-point underdogs. Stephen Curry scored 51 points in that contest, but the rest of the Warriors didn't play that well. It was a flat game for Golden State and they still beat the Magic by 16 points on the road. 
Now the Magic not only face what should be an aroused and embarrassed Warriors squad, but also are off a highly-deflating, 102-84 home loss to the lowly Suns this past Friday. That dropped the Magic's record to 8-21 in their last 29 games and put a stop to any realistic talk about them making the playoffs. This is what Magic coach Scott Skiles was quoted as saying following that defeat. "We should probably stop talking about (the playoff chase) right now because this was a game we had to have." 
Orlando is 4-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 

Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. 
The Badgers are playing their best ball after a slow start. They need this game to lock up their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and earn a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin has covered 10 of the past 11 times following a victory.
Purdue is 22-1 SU in its last 23 home games. But the Boilermakers haven't been that sharp failing to cover in five of their last eight games in West Lafayette, including their past three home contests. Purdue caught Wisconsin early in the season before the Badgers caught fire beating them by six points. The last time the Boilermakers swept the Badgers was 2008-09. 
This has been a road series with the visitor covering six of the past seven times. It also has been a close series with three of the past four games decided by six points or fewer. Note, too, that Purdue is 1-6-1 ATS when playing a foe with a winning percentage above .600. 

Detroit played last night, but it's Portland that carries a high fatigue rating in this matchup. The Pistons were idle for two days before losing to the Knicks, 102-89, on Saturday. Now they return home where they have covered 64 percent of their games at The Palace of Auburn Hills. 
Prior to losing to the Knicks, the Pistons had held their previous five opponents to an average of 93.6 points a game. Detroit is a top 10 defensive club and thanks to Andre Drummond one of the best rebounding teams in the league. 
Portland ranks 16th defensively and is at the end of a its six-game road trip. This marks the Trail Blazers' fourth away matchup in six days. Portland stayed hot opening with three victories on their trip, but now have lost two in a row falling to Boston and Toronto. You would have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Trail Blazers finished a trip of at least six games with a winning record. 
This is statement time for the Pistons if they are serious about making the playoffs. The key for the Pistons is finding their offense. They were held to 81 points on the road against the Spurs this past Wednesday and only managed 89 versus the Knicks last night. Keep in mind, though, the Spurs are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. The Pistons just suffered an off-game against the Knicks as Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who had been playing well since coming to Detroit, were a combined 8-for-37 from the floor versus New York. 
I envision Stan Van Gundy having the Pistons fired up for this Sunday home game and their offense should step up versus a mediocre opposing defense and tired opponent. 

A month ago Avery Bradley hit a buzzer beater as the Celtics upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 104-103. The Cavaliers haven't forgotten. Not only is this a huge revenge spot for them, but it's a great situation, too. 
Both teams played Friday night. The Cavaliers waltzed past the Wizards, 108-83, at home. Kyrie Irving was the only Cleveland player to log more than 31 minutes. Kevin Love received the night off. He'll be fresh. 
Boston, on the other hand, had to rally from eight points down in the final four minutes to nip the lowly Knicks, 105-104, at home last night. The Celtics had to exert a lot of energy to pull out that victory. Now the Celtics immediately fly out to Cleveland for their first road game since Feb. 22. Boston has been outstanding at home, but are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games losing to the Timberwolves, Jazz and Bucks. The Cavaliers were idle for three days before rolling past the Wizards. They are far more rested than Boston.
The Celtics rely on fast breaks and the scoring of Isaiah Thomas. However, the Cavaliers rank fifth in defending opponents fast breaks and Thomas is shooting under 32 percent from the field against the Cavaliers in nine games against them since he joined Boston. 
This is statement time for the Cavaliers being the dominant team in the Eastern Conference. They want to prove that to the upstart Celtics and the spot lays out well for them to achieve that. 

Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. 
I expect a much stronger defensive effort from Kentucky after John Calipari lit into his team about giving the Commodores too many layups and dunks. Star Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis also is in back bounce mode after a rare terrible performance. 
Florida is 2-8 against top 50 RIP ranked teams. The Gators are surrendering an average of 85 points during their last three games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. 
The Wildcats rolled past the Gators, 80-61, nearly a month ago in the first meeting despite not having third-leading scoring Alex Poythress. The senior forward is healthy for this game. 

Memphis is 10 games above .500 and 4-2 since losing its best player, Marc Gasol, to a broken right foot. The Grizzlies are still a borderline playoff team without Gasol, at their best versus lower tier opponents such as the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have defeated Denver four straight times and are in a great spot to continue that streak.
The Grizzlies should be primed for a strong, concentrated effort after an embarrassing, 111-106, road loss to the Suns on Saturday. This is what Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was quoted as saying following that loss: "We still feel like we are rolling right now and playing good basketball. For us to come out and not play our best, I think our focus level wasn't where it need to be." 
Denver is 13 games below .500. The Nuggets are headed for worse, too, after losing their best player, Danilo Gallinari. He suffered a severe ankle injury in the Nuggets' last game, a 122-116 overtime loss to the Mavericks. 
Gallinari is the key to the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points and also is the man when the offense breaks down -which it often does - by his ability to get to the free throw line when nothing is going on. Gallinari connects on 86.8 percent of his free throws. Even with Gallinari's great free throw percentage, the Nuggets rank 16th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 76.5 percent. Now that mediocre percentage is headed lower with Gallinari sidelined. Denver went 1-5 in December when Gallinari missed six games with another ankle injury. 
The Grizzlies still have the veteran savvy, huge point guard edge with Conley and bench to cover this short road number against a Denver team that could be reduced to a starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and JaKarr Sampson. Faried is the only legitimate starter of that bunch. 

The Heat have dominated the Knicks, winning eight of the past nine times, including going 4-0 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden.
Miami is the superior team, but the oddsmaker has downgraded the Heat because they have injuries and played on Saturday. 
Chris Bosh, second-string point guard Beno Udrih and third-string point guard Tyler Johnson are all out for the Miami. But the Heat just signed veteran Joe Johnson, who may be able to play, and are 3-2 since the All-Streak break minus Bosh beating three decent Eastern Conference teams - Hawks, Wizards and Pacers. The Heat's lone defeats since break have come against the Warriors by six points and on the road against the Celtics, who have won 10 in a row at home. 
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference games and steps way down in class. Fatigue shouldn't be that much of a problem because the Heat played a day game yesterday. Miami has a winning record when playing without rest. They've adjusted to the loss of Bosh with veteran Luol Deng stepping up. Johnson isn't a big loss. 
The Knicks are lottery-bound again. They are a bit fat and happy after beating Orlando, 108-95, this past Friday. Before that game, though, the Knicks had dropped nine of 10. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. New York also isn't entirely healthy. Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis all missed practice on Saturday with assorted injuries. 

Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack.
Now it's rematch time and the Wolf Pack are likely to be missing Coleman, their leading scorer. He has a severely sprained ankle. It would be a surprise if he played. The Wolf Pack are not a deep team. Colorado State is not a good matchup for them. The Rams are an up-tempo, high scoring team that draws the seventh most fouls in the country. They rank 31st in the country averaging 79.9 points a game. 
The Wolf Pack have struggled with the higher scoring teams in the Mountain West Conference while faring better versus the grind-out type teams. This is the wrong opponent at the wrong time for Nevada-Reno. 

Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. 
This is a huge loss for the Wildcats, who don't have anyone averaging double figures in scoring aside from Senglin and Bolomboy. Losing Bolomboy also hurts the Wildcats defensively as he is their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He also averages 17.6 points a game. 
Montana ranks among the top 40 in defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have won seven of their past eight games, including the last five. This is the first time they've been an underdog in a Big Sky Conference game all season. Martin Breunig, the Grizzlies' 6-8 senior forward, should be in line for a big game without Bolomboy to hinder him. Breunig leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 19 points a game. 
Weber State has failed to cover in its last six games, including the past three at home. The Wildcats are overrated and vulnerable missing Bolomboy. 

Even a well-coached, veteran team such as the Spurs can be excused if they are anxious to finally get home. This marks the final game of the Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip." They are 6-1 in their last seven games, all on the road. 
The Rockets have covered the past six times at home versus San Antonio. Houston should have its confidence up, too, after overcoming a 21-point second-half deficit to defeat red-hot Portland on the road this past Thursday. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS the past 13 times facing Houston. 
Both James Harden and Dwight Howard are playing well. Harden is averaging 34.4 points in five games following All-Star break. Howard has posted five double-doubles in his last six games. 

This is a big revenge spot for Indiana. The Hornets whipped the Pacers by 23 points on Feb. 10. That was the game, though, where the Hornets lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, their best defender, for the season. 

Despite that injury the Hornets were riding high winning five in a row until falling 114-103 on the road to the Cavaliers two nights ago. I could envision the Hornets letting down after their streak was snapped.
Paul George is having a huge season for the Pacers. George had 22 points in the Feb. 10 loss, but rookie forward Myles Turner contributed only 10 points. Turner is playing much better now averaging 17 points since the All-Star break. 
Indiana is at its point spread best versus Eastern Conference opponents going 21-10-1 ATS for 68 percent. 

San Antonio is a very good team without Kawhi Leonard. But when they have Leonard, the Spurs rank with the Warriors as the top team in the NBA. Leonard came back last night after missing three games with a calf injury and helped spark the Spurs to an easy 16-point win against the Kings. Leonard will be less rusty now that he's had a game.
Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were idle the previous two days. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. The Spurs are at least several tiers higher than Utah. The Spurs have a huge coaching, guard and bench edge. 
San Antonio gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and has the highest margin of victory. When Leonard is in the lineup, the Spurs allowed just 92 points a game. The Jazz average 98.4 a game, which ranks 26th. 

Considering the class difference and matchup - the Spurs are 2-0 versus the Jazz this season winning by 25 and 37 points - San Antonio should easily be able to cover this number. 

South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. 
Tennessee is coming off an impressive 81-65 home victory against LSU. However, the Volunteers haven't won back-to-back SEC games all season and are 0-6-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. They also aren't likely to have have leading scorer, Kevin Punter. He missed the victory against the Tigers because of a stress fracture in his foot. Teams often play well the first time without their star player with the rest of the team stepping up wanting to prove something. It's more difficult the second time without a star especially following a victory. 
Punter scored 36 points when Tennessee defeated South Carolina, 78-69, at home on Jan. 23. So this is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who lead the SEC in rebounding and have a substantial frontcourt height advantage. 

First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups.
Second, the Rebels are near depleted. Already down big men Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter, their two leading rebounders, the Rebels now won't have key reserve Dwayne Morgan, who had been averaging close to 20 minutes. He's out with a shoulder injury. That leaves the Rebels down to six scholarship players.
The third key factor here is the situation. UNLV is off a crazy overtime victory against in-state rival Nevada this past Saturday at home. The Rebels tied the game on a 3-pointer by Patrick Macaw right before the buzzer sending the game into overtime. 
The spot is a double edge sword because not only do the Rebels have to come down from that high, pulling out a game against their most hated rival, but Boise State is rested, ready and has revenge. The Broncos last played on Wednesday. They blew a 76-61 lead to lose on the road to New Mexico in their last game. 
So not only are the Broncos itching to erase that stench, but have payback for a 10-point road loss to the Rebels. UNLV had Zimmerman and Carter in that matchup. The two combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in that game. 
Boise State is up-tempo. The Rebels are going to be hard-pressed to keep up with the Broncos being short-handed and at a tough road venue. 

The Warriors aren't just great at home. They also are an NBA-best 25-5 on the road, including 18-11-1 (62 percent) ATS on the road. The Warriors also are 12-5 following a non-spread cover. 
Atlanta already has lost six more games than it did all of last season. The Hawks aren't in good form either losing and failing to cover in four of their last five. Both teams are playing for the third time in four days, but the Warriors have the stronger bench. 
Hawks point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with a wrist injury. The Warriors have a couple of their big men out, but the Hawks are not a good rebounding team. Atlanta also is missing backup big man Tiago Splitter, out for the year after hip surgery. 

The Pistons have covered 64 percent of their home games this season and have revenge for an embarrassing 115-99 road loss to New Orleans from last month. 
While Detroit is a top home team, New Orleans is a terrible road team. The Pelicans are 6-21 away from home, 11-16 ATS. The Pistons have covered nine of the last 11 times against opponents with a losing road mark. New Orleans also is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
The Pistons upgraded themselves at the trade deadline. Their main pickup, Tobias Harris, scored 21 points off the bench this past Friday against the Wizards in his Detroit debut. 
New Orleans is the longest of shots to get a playoff berth. Detroit, on the other hand, is very much in playoff contention. The Pistons can't afford to be flat here at home with a road game against the Cavaliers on Monday. 
I see the Pistons going all out to halt their four-game losing streak. Anthony Davis is an outstanding big man, but Detroit's Andre Drummond is having as good as any season a big man is having. He is leading the league in rebounding and has a higher field goal percentage than Davis. 

This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. 
The Anteaters have revenge for a road loss to Hawaii. Before that loss, Cal Irivne had covered four in a row versus the Rainbow Warriors. The Anteaters are 10-1 at home this season and have covered 10 of their last 14 Big West games.
Cal Irvine ranks 42nd in the country in defense holding foes to less than 66 points a game. The Anteaters have a big rebound/shot blocking edge at center with 7-foot-6 Mamedou Ndiaye. 
Hawaii also could be without guard Aaron Valdes, its second-leading scorer. He's been sick with the flu so even if he plays he may still be under the weather.

Golden State is the best team in basketball. The Warriors haven't dropped two in a row all season - and I don't see it happening here. The Warriors should be extremely focused and fired-up following a shocking 137-105 road loss to Portland Friday night. The Trail Blazers are tough at home and brought their "A" game. The Warriors were rusty and not as focused as they should have been coming off All-Star break. 
The Clippers are off a hugely-satisfying 19-point home win versus San Antonio two nights ago. The Clippers are more bullies than elite. I question their mental makeup and heart. The Clippers are 5-12-1 ATS against foes who have a winning percentage above .600. They are 6-13 ATS at home versus opponents who sport a winning road mark. I don't see the Clippers being able to beat the Spurs and Warriors in a row even at home. 
Golden State has covered 64 percent of its road games this season and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Pacific Division games. The Warriors still will be fresh, too. This is just the Warriors' second game in 10 days and none of their players logged more than 30 minutes last night. 
There are plenty of All-Stars in this matchup, but none the caliber of Stephen Curry, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. No one can guard Curry certainly none of the Clippers' weak backcourt defenders. Golden State has defeated the Clippers four consecutive times, including winning both meetings this season. 

The Wizards started slow last season, but ended up finishing 10 games above .500, earned the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and swept the Raptors in the first round. 
Now, though, at the All-Star break the Wizards find themselves in 10th place, three games away from the playoffs. Basically the Wizards have nearly the same roster. I expect them to make a move now that Bradley Beal is healthy and John Wall is having a superstar-type season. Wall suffered a bruised knee in the Wizards' final game before the break, but showed he was OK scoring 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the All-Star Game. 
Utah is 26-26. The line is priced too low in my opinion because the Jazz entered break winning seven of their last eight games. But those victories came on the road against the Mavericks in overtime, at the Suns and the rest were at home versus the struggling Bulls, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets. That's not exactly Murder's Row. The Jazz have failed to cover in nine of their last 13 away games. 
This matchup could be a season-defining moment for the Wizards. They can't waste any time getting things turned around especially taking a home loss to this mediocre opponent with their trumped-up recent record. 
This game was supposed to be played last month, but a massive snowstorm caused a postponement. Because of that, Washington has to play Detroit at Verizon Center on Friday and then at Miami on Saturday. That's three games in three days. 

Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. 
Houston is much the superior team. The Cougars proved that when they routed the Green Wave, 63-45, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 5. Tulane's previous two home games before upsetting Memphis were against Central Florida and South Florida. The Green Wave lost both of those games straight-up as a home favorite. They lost by eight to Central Florida and by 13 to South Florida. 
Houston averages 78.6 points per game. The Cougars hold foes to less than 70 points a game while compiling an 18-7 record. They are 5-1 in their last six games. 
Tulane holds foes to 70 points a game, but doesn't have the offense to keep up with Houston ranking 304th in scoring at 66.7 points a game and 327th in shooting percentage at 40.3 percent. Houston is the better team and also peaking while Tulane is a letdown mode after its biggest win of the season.  

Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. 
Since then the Cardinals have been road 'dogs eight straight times. The last being this past Saturday when they upset Central Michigan - the team picked to capture the Mid-American West Division - 75-63 as eight-point 'dogs. 
Ball State is 0-5 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cardinals have a bigger game on deck hosting Northern Illinois on Friday. So this is a potential trap spot for the Cardinals, who have lacked consistency all season. Since the beginning of MAC play, the Cardinals haven't won more than two consecutive games. 
Ball State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 MAC matchups and 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing at Miami of Ohio. The Red Hawks should have defeated Ball State in the first meeting as 6 1/2-road 'dogs on Jan. 16. Ball State came back from 14 points down to win, 48-46. 

The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. 

At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. 
If you go by the Pomeroy ratings, you'll find Oakland ranked 101st and Wright State rated 138th. Oakland is the superior team and Wright State's home-court isn't enough to offset that edge even acknowledging that the Raiders have won 10 in a row at Nutter Center. 
Wright State last played at home nine days ago. The Raiders are off a huge road win against Horizon League leader Valparaiso this past Saturday, The Raiders, 13-point underdogs in that game, won on a last-second putback basket by Biggie Minnis. 
It may take a while for the Raiders to come down after that victory. They are 4-10 ATS following a cover and have failed to cover in five of their last six games played on Monday. 
Oakland is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.1 points a game, which ranks second nationally. The Golden Grizzlies are No. 1 in the conference in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Oakland guard Kay Felder leads the league in scoring at 24.7 per game. He had 33 points when the Grizzlies buried the Raiders, 89-63, on Jan. 22. Wright State failed to slow the tempo down in that matchup. 
The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Horizon League without a conference road loss. They've won their past six away games and are 21-4-1 ATS following a victory. They have too much offense for Wright State, averaging nearly 20 points more per game than the Raiders. 

Normally I don't get involved with All-Star games, but this game is an exception.

The West roster isn't just better than the East roster - it's vastly superior. LeBron James is the only player on the East I would rate as among the top 10 players in the game. The West has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden and Chris Paul. 

The East can't come close to matching that talent and depth. The West also has a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, against novice Tyronn Lue, who shouldn't even be coaching in this game. 

The West has multiple teammates playing - Durant, Westbrook from the Thunder, Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge from the Spurs and Curry, Green and Klay Thompson from the Warriors. These guys are all used to playing with each other. 

These huge edges are more than enough to overcome the randomness factor that can pop up in exhibition games. 

Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home -  coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points. 
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season. 
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving up less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games. 
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot. 

Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine.
The Anteaters are 8-1 at home, but the Matadors have covered the last five times they've been on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage above .600. Northridge has covered four of its five Big West road contests.
The Matadors last played on Wednesday defeating Cal-State Fullerton, 75-67, at home. Irvine had to play on Thursday in Honolulu losing a Big West showdown battle with host Hawaii, 74-52. The Anteaters have a quick rematch with Hawaii hosting them next Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Anteaters have to get their sea legs back under them, along with their mental focus, returning back to California for this matchup. It's not a great spot for the Anteaters and Northridge has enough going to keep it close. 

New Orleans doesn't have the defense to control the Thunder. The Pelicans rank 24th both in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points a game and has been averaging 112.4 points during its last 15 games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are each playing at high levels and the Thunder have the big bodies in Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to slow down Anthony Davis. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during his last three games.
The spot is ripe, too, for Oklahoma City. New Orleans has won two in a row. Those victories were against Minnesota and Utah. Now the Pelicans jump way up in class following a narrow 100-96 home win against the Jazz last night. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS following a cover. This is the Pelicans' third game in four nights. Their depth is down with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out. 
The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their lone loss during their last seven games coming on the road to Golden State. 

I like Brad Stevens a lot. But there exits a huge talent gap between Stevens' Celtics and the Clippers. LA has enough star power to go 18-4 despite not having Blake Griffin the last 22 games. The Clippers don't need Griffin to beat Boston on the road especially given the circumstances of the matchup. 
The Clippers have been on the East Coast the past three days after getting away with a lackluster performance in a 98-92 overtime win against the 76ers this past Monday. The Celtics, on the other hand, are crossing a time zone flying into Boston in the wee hours of the morning following a bizarre 112-111 road loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night. The Celtics clawed their way back from 18 points down in the final quarter to tie the game only to lose on a free throw by Khris Middleton with less than a second left after a deadball foul had been called.  
The Clippers have won 12 of their past 14 away contests. They feast on Eastern Conference foes going 11-3 in their last 14 games against them. They've covered 72 percent of their past 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents.  LA received its wakeup call against the 76ers during its last game. The Clippers have covered each of the last eight times following a non-cover and also are 9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 
Because of Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce, the Clippers get extra motivated when they play the Celtics especially in Boston. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS during their past six trips to Boston winning each of the four meetings since Rivers left the Celtics to become LA's coach. 
The Celtics have a strong bench. They are better than most teams when playing without rest. But Jamal Crawford - a streak shooter - has been the hottest reserve player in the NBA averaging 22 points during his last five games. 
The Clippers are at their best in these type of matchups, beating up a weaker Eastern Conference foe. The Clippers have the talent edge, are in a good spot already being in Boston before the Celtics arrive and have the motivation knowing they can't get away with being flat against this caliber of opponent especially when their first two games following All-Star break are against the two best teams in basketball - San Antonio and Golden State. 

The Knicks are broke and interim coach Kurt Rambis isn't going to fix them. Rambis was horrible when he coached the Timberwolves from 2009 to 2011 and he takes over a bad situation that isn't likely to get resolved until next season, certainly not during the brief period before All-Star break. 
The short Derek Fisher era was a disaster for the Knicks. New York was 40-96 during his reign. That's the worst percentage of any Knicks coach lasting longer than a season. Fisher was the Rich Kottie of New York basketball coaches. 
The Knicks are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have dropped five in a row failing to cover any of their last five. Yes, the Wizards are struggling, too. But they are a level above the Knicks, match up well to New York and catch the Knicks in a horrible transition spot. Not only is morale low with the Knicks, but there is dissension among the coaching ranks with the hiring of Rambis. 
New York is well deserving of its losing streak averaging fewer than 96 points during its last 10 games while surrendering more than 106 points per game during its last 15 contests. This the Knicks' final game before having 10 days off for All-Star break. I could very well see them mailing this one in. 
But what about the Wizards? The record shows they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. It also reveals Washington, though, to have played very tough opponents during this span including the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics twice, Rockets, Heat and Trail Blazers. 
The Wizards have had three days to stew about blowing a 19-point road lead to the Hornets this past Saturday in a 108-104 loss. The good news is John Wall continues to play at a high level, Bradley Beal is out of his minutes limitation and Nene could return for this game. Unlike the Knicks, the Wizards hold realistic playoff hopes and should have a great deal of urgency for this game. 
Washington hasn't dropped three consecutive road games all season. The Wizards have covered seven of their last nine road matchups. They have played their best against Eastern Conference clubs going 14-6 ATS. They also have beaten the Knicks seven of the past eight times while winning four in a row at Madison Square Garden.

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Miami is playing well and is healthier than it has been. However, the Clippers are a level higher and have been in Florida since Friday when they defeated the Magic, 107-93. So the Clippers shouldn't be bothered by the early start and difference in time.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 21 games and have covered in nine of their last 11 road games.
The Clippers beat the Heat at home, 104-90, on Jan. 13 despite missing Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who was out with an illness. Jordan is back and playing well with 15 or more rebounds in his last six games. Miami's Hassan Whiteside isn't going to be dominant squaring off against Jordan.
The Clippers also have been getting excellent bench production from streaky Jamal Crawford, who has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games, including the past three. 

This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. 
So points should be at a premium like they were when they met for the first time this season on Jan. 2. Georgia State won that matchup, 58-46. It was the fourth straight time in the series that the road team covered as the line was pick'em. This gives Texas State revenge motivation. 
Now, a month later, Georgia State is nearly a double-digit favorite. Home-court certainly isn't worth that many points. Not only are the Panthers way down from last season, but they are in bad form. Georgia State is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in its last five games with its lone victory during this span coming in overtime by three as an 11-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. That was the last time the Panthers were home, which was back on Jan. 19.
Texas State averages only 67.1 points a game. But that's still higher than Georgia State, which averages just 65.7 points a game. 

The Bulls are due to play better and Utah hasn't won three games in a row all season. 
Chicago should be fired-up after giving up an embarrassing 69 points in the second half during its 120-93 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That was a day game giving the Bulls a few extra hours in this second of consecutive games. The Bulls should be accustomed to the time difference as this is their third consecutive West Coast game. Chicago opened its road trip with a 114-91 victory against the Lakers this past Thursday. 
The Jazz are healthier than they have been, but I like the Bulls' talent better especially in the backcourt with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. The Jazz have played a very weak recent schedule - having faced the Timberwolves this past Friday in their last game, Hornets twice, Pistons, Nets, Knicks, Lakers and Kings. Detroit is the only one of those teams above .500.
Utah is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest. The Bulls have beaten Utah in seven of the past nine meetings.

I see a kill spot here for the Warriors after they narrowly escaped the 76ers last night, winning 108-105. The Warriors almost blew a 24-point lead. Look for a more focused effort after that scare especially now that they've settled into East Coast time playing their second of three road games in a row. 
Stephen Curry and Co. would like to prove themselves in the media center of the country with a big performance. The Warriors could be at full strength, too, with center Festus Ezeli possibly returning after missing two games with an injured knee and Andre Iguodala back after being rested for the first time this season in last night's game. 
Golden State is 10-1 when playing without rest. The Warriors also are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 11-2 ATS following a non-cover. 
The Warriors lead the league in scoring and have been at their offensive-best averaging a staggering 122.3 points in their last seven games. The Knicks are much improved this season, but they have only managed to defeat the hapless Suns during their last five games.  

Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos may just have the best player in the Mountain West Conference in James Webb III. He scored 23 points when the Broncos beat New Mexico, 69-59, on the road last season. The Lobos held Webb in check in last season's rematch at Boise State. However, the Broncos still won, 76-65, because Nick Duncan connected on eight 3-pointers.
Don't expect anything to change now that we've turned the calendar year. Boise State remains a bad matchup for New Mexico because of the style of the two teams. Boise State is an up-tempo team that likes to fire up 3-pointers. The Broncos are especially dangerous at home. Discounting their game against San Diego State, which ranks first in the country in defensive field goal percentage, the Broncos are averaging 86.3 points during their last home contests. 
New Mexico can run, too, but often prefers to set up their big men with inside touches. The Lobos lack Boise State's scoring depth and explosiveness. 
Just two weeks ago, New Mexico lost to Wyoming at home. By contrast, Boise State just beat Wyoming by 10 points on the road a week ago. 

Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points.  
Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points. 

Spot, situation and double revenge motivation factor heavily in this matchup for the Timberwolves. 
Minnesota is home where it has beaten the Suns and Grizzlies in its last two games, rested after being idle on Tuesday and psyched to beat the Thunder after losing to them twice already this month and nine times in a row. 
Oklahoma City is playing its fourth away game in six days. The Thunder had to go overtime to get past the Knicks, 128-122, at Madison Square Garden last night. All but one of the Thunder's starters played at least 42 minutes. Center Steven Adams returned from a two-game absence and logged more than 35 minutes. He might not be able to play nearly that many minutes in this short turnaround. The Thunder are without guard Andre Roberson. He was replaced by Dion Waiters, who played a season-high 42:31 minutes. 
The Thunder's defense is down without Robertson and it will be weakened even more if Adams is limited. The Timberwolves like to compare themselves to the Thunder with their promising second-year players Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns. The hope for the Timberwolves is these players can become stars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now here Wiggins, LaVine and Towns have a chance to compete against their benchmark right at home. All three are playing well with Towns averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last four games, Wiggins is scoring at a 23.5 per game clip in his last four contests and LaVine is averaging 17 points during his last four games. 
Focus, along with fatigue, could be a problem for the Thunder. They return home after being gone for nearly a week following the game and host the Rockets, a far tougher challenge, on Friday. 

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. 
Not only are the Aztecs - who are undefeated in the Mountain West - taller, but they have the better athletes, too. They are leading the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and also are No. 1 defensively. 
San Diego State beat Utah State, 70-67, in Logan earlier this season and that was with the Aggies getting some homecooking. Utah State made 24 of 29 free throws in that game compared to the Aztecs making 10 of 20.

Utah State was hurt by big man David Collette transferring to Utah. The Aggies' rebounding hasn't been the same. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Aggies this being their eighth game in 22 days. 

Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. 
The Gaels are No. 2 in the nation in scoring margin winning by an average of 20.5 points a game while ranking third in fewest points allowed per game at 58. Impressive, yes. But a soft home schedule has contributed to Saint Mary's dominance. I believe it's a mistake to make the Gaels a favorite against Gonzaga even though they are 13-0 at home. 
We've been down this road before with these two teams. Gonzaga was an underdog in 2013 and 2014 to Saint Mary's. The Zags won those games by 28 and 17 points, respectively. Simply put, Saint Mary's doesn't beat Gonzaga. The Zags have been the class of this conference since the late 1990s and still are the class of this conference. They have defeated the Gaels eight consecutive times, covering the past seven times. 
Gonzaga is very strong again at 14-4 with its four losses coming by a combined 12 points. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring and rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense. They have two of the top six scorers in the conference with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who also leads the WCC in rebounding. 
The Zags have won the past three meetings at McKeon Pavilion. Their 13-game road win streak is the longest in the NCAA. Saint Mary's is going to feel the pressure of being the favorite. The Gaels have been involved in two games decided by single-digits and lost both - blowing a late lead to California in a 63-59 road loss and falling to Pepperdine, 67-64, two games ago as an 8 1/2-point road favorite. 
The Gaels blew a 17-point lead at home to Gonzaga when the teams last played on Feb. 21 of 215. The Zags won that game, 70-60. Bottom line: Saint Mary's isn't ready to beat Gonzaga. Getting points is a bonus. 

Washington has revenge for an embarrassing 97-75 home loss suffered to the Heat early this month. Look for the Wizards to get their revenge in a big way as this is a horrendous spot for the banged-up Heat.
Miami is enduring its worst stretch going 1-5, including losing 91-79 to the Bucks at home last night. The Heat had just returned from a six-game road trip that had concluded Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Now the Heat go right back on the road.
The Heat have been outscored by 37 points in their last two games. While the Wizards are healthy with Bradley Beal back, the Heat are down several big men and have a cluster injury problem at point guard with starter Goran Dragic and backup Beno Udrih out. This leaves the Heat inexperienced in the backcourt. Dwayne Wade is trying to take over some of the ball handling, but he's bothered by a sore shoulder. John Wall against Tyler Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. 
The Wizards have been playing better winning four of their last six. However, they are off a double-digit home loss to Portland this past Monday. So the Wizards should be rested and ready. 

Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland are without question the elite of the NBA right now. The timing of this matchup, though, is well suited for the Cavaliers. 
The Warriors are 37-4, but playing their worst ball dropping two of their last three. The latest defeat being an eye-popping 113-95 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Pistons are an outstanding home team and were sky-high for the matchup. But Golden State has no excuses being healthy. The Warriors shot a season-low from the floor and had their fewest assists, just 18, of the season. 
While I certainly wouldn't expect the Warriors to be that bad again - perhaps not all season - this is another tough spot for them. The revenge-minded Cavaliers are 15-1 at home, riding a six-game winning streak at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is well rested having completed a 5-1 road trip with an impressive 91-77 victory against Houston on Friday. That followed a tough 99-95 loss to the Spurs that halted the Cavaliers' eight game win streak.
The prideful Cavaliers don't want to lose to the Spurs and Warriors in the same week. They also have payback for an 89-83 Christmas Day loss to the Warriors and for losing to Golden State in the Championship Series while missing Kevin Love and losing Kyrie Irving for the series when he suffered a broken left kneecap in Game 1. Irving was just returning from his injury when the Cavaliers lost to Golden State on Christmas. Now he's healthy as are the rest of the Cavaliers. Irving led the Cavaliers against the Rockets with 23 points. 
LeBron James usually can be counted on in revenge spots. James is on a hot run, too, averaging 25.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists while hitting 54.8 percent of his shots from the field during the last six games. 

This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest.
Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. 
Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. 
Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. 
The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league. 

 

No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.

Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape. 

A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. 
I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion.
The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. 
UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. 
The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV. 

Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. 
Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. 
Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. 
Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. 
Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. 
Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. 

Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. 
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? 
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. 
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. 
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. 
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. 
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. 
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. 
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. 
The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. 
Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. 
The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. 
The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. 
If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average.
Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. 
Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. 
The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more. 

Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. 

This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana. 

Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record. 

Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. 
Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. 
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. 
The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season.
Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back. 

 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. 
The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. 
The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. 
The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. 
The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener.
The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. 
Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. 
Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. 
The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. 

The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. 

The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points.

The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center. 

Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call.