Not only do the Steelers have the advantage of having played one game already this preseason, but Mike Tomlin wants to win this matchup after Pittsburgh lost 14-3 to the Vikings during the Hall of Fame Game this past Sunday.
Tomlin held out his offensive stars against the Vikings, but Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Maurkice Pouncey and Heath Miller are all going to play against the Jaguars. Backup Pittsburgh quarterback Landry Jones should show better, too, after playing the entire Hall of Fame game.
The Steelers have had more time to get into place their system and schemes thanks to having played in the Hall of Fame game. They won't be so vanilla. Jacksonville is 2-6 in preseason during the Gus Bradley era.
The Jaguars lack depth to do well in preseason. That's the situation again with the Jaguars, especially in their defensive line where they already are dealing with an abundance of injuries.
If there was a plus to the Steelers' first preseason game it was the play of their defense, which has gotten considerably younger but now plays faster. The Steelers held the Vikings to an average of three yards per run and stopped them on 10 of 13 third downs.
One of the Jacksonville's priorities is to find a ground game, something it has failed to accomplish during Bradley's coaching tenure. Rookie TJ Yeldon may be the Jaguars' best runner and he might get held out of this game because of a sprained finger.
There is no reason for the Jaguars to risk Yeldon and quarterback Blake Bortles in this their first preseason game.

The Bears are home, have the better backup skill position players and a better coaching staff than the Dolphins.
New coach John Fox is anxious to get the Bears pointed in the right direction after last season's disaster under Marc Trestman. Fox brings an all-star collection of assistant coaches with him - offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
I'm not a fan of Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are experiencing offensive line problems and have nothing to prove here. The Bears do.
Chicago also has the better second-stringers at the skill position spots
Jay Cutler is expected to play a little and he should be fired-up to show the new coaching staff that he can be counted on. Backing up Cutler is veteran Jimmy Clausen, David Fales and Shane Carden, who the Bears like a lot. Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford are underrated backup running backs to Matt Forte.

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, the Dodgers are just 12-10 in his starts this season. If you give the opponent 1 1/2 runs, the Dodgers are 11-11 with Kershaw on the mound.
Runs are going to be extremely hard to come by in this matchup so asking the Dodgers - the home team - to win by more than one run is a tall order.
The left-handed Kershaw wasn't sharp in his previous outing against Pittsburgh. The Nationals' key right-handed bats are all hot right now with Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth picking up their games. They can cause problems for Kershaw. It's an added plus for Washington if Bryce Harper returns to the lineup today as expected.
If Kershaw can't reach the ninth inning the Dodgers are extremely vulnerable as their setup relievers have not been good.
Jordan Zimmerman is one of the better pitchers in the NL and has been for the last several seasons. Washington has won 67 percent of Zimmerman's last 104 starts. Zimmerman has a 2.51 ERA in his last three stars against the Dodgers, who have lost six of the past seven times they've faced Zimmerman. 

Different motivations for these two teams. The Vikings and their pugnacious coach, Mike Zimmer, want to keep proving themselves. Zimmer is stressing winning early even talking Super Bowl.
That talk is crazy, but the Vikings are improved and Zimmer wants to establish a winning mindset early. So I see the justification in Minnesota being favored.
The Steelers returned to the playoffs last season. Their early-season priorities are different than Minnesota's. Mike Tomlin wants to find out who his main running backs are going to be with Le'Veon Bell suspended for the first two games.
Pittsburgh is undergoing massive defensive changes, too, while the Vikings are in the second year of Zimmer's defensive scheme. Long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau no longer is with the Steelers. The Steelers are transitioning to youth on defense and will be going through growing pains early.
Backup quarterbacks are huge when getting involved in preseason and the Vikings own the edge there with veteran second-stringer Shaun Hill, one of the best backups in the league. 

Clayton Kershaw is showing serious signs of matching last year's out-of-this-world pitching numbers. The 27-year-old still is in his absolute prime. He's only given up two earned runs with 43 strikeouts during his last four starts spanning 31 innings.
Kershaw is enjoying the best strikeout rate of his career with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last four games.
The Mets are in the argument for weakest offense in the majors. They rank last in batting average, second-to-last in OPS and third-from-the-bottom in runs.  
Making this such a strong run line play is the Dodgers offense should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Bartolo Colon and a Mets bullpen that has fatigue issues.
The 42-year-old Colon pitches his best early in the season before he begins to wear down, which is the case now. Colon has yielded 21 runs on 37 hits during his last four starts - all losses - spanning 20 2/3 innings.
Colon doesn't have a good history versus the Dodgers either. The righty has a 2-4 lifetime mark with a 6.03 ERA. The Dodgers trail only Colorado in slugging percentage against right-handers. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Stampeders have not looked good during their first two games. Their lackluster play caught up to them last week as they were upset by Montreal as a 9 1/2-point road favorite.
Toronto, on the other hand, is riding high posting upset victories against Edmonton and Saskatchewan.
Expect things to get back into a natural order with this matchup. Toronto is off an emotional overtime victory and on the road a third straight week. The Argonauts are stepping up in class. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory.
Bo Levi Mitchell and Calgary's offense are out of the gates slow. But the Stampeders have proven offensive talent, which should pick up now that Mitchell has gotten some of the kinks out and will have speedy wide receiver Jeff Fuller back.
Toronto fill-in quarterback Trevor Harris has been playing well above his head. Expect him to come back down to Earth.
The Stampeders have covered eight of the last nine times they've played a foe with a winning mark and are 23-7 (77%) ATS in their last 30 games following a loss so they have a good history in these type of spots.

Rookie quarterback Rakeem Cato stepped up big last week to spark Montreal to a 29-11 upset win over Calgary, the defending Grey Cup champions. That win came at home and the Alouettes caught the Stampeders in a flat spot.
Now Montreal is in the flat spot and on the road, too. Winnipeg isn't going to take Montreal lightly like Calgary did. The Blue Bombers are off an embarrassing loss to the Tiger-Cats.
The line isn't that high because Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy Cato got banged-up last week. He's expected to be fine this week, though. Montreal's defense has been tough the first two weeks but I'm not sold on it. Winnipeg has some dangerous skill position players that I see the Alouettes having problems covering.
Note, too, that Montreal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Winnipeg and has failed to cover the past four times overall when playing the Blue Bombers.

The won/lost record is skewed by bad run support, but Clayton Kershaw not initially being picked to the NL All-Star team is a joke.
Kershaw is going to be pitching against the Phillies, the worst team in the majors, with a chip on his shoulder. And the Dodgers won't be taking the Phillies lightly after losing, 7-2, to them last night.
If ever there was a kill spot in baseball this is it.
The Phillies are 11-32 on the road, worst in the majors. They are 1-14-1 in their last 16 away series. The Dodgers have won 68 percent of their last 59 home games going 40-19.
Philadelphia has lost 41 games by more than one run. There are 10 teams who haven't lost 41 games all season.
Kershaw still is the best pitcher in baseball. The three-time Cy Young Award winner leads the NL in strikeouts with 147 and has his highest career strikeout-per-nine inning ratio at 11.6. His walks per nine innings are down from his career average of 2.7 and his FIP, a metric that determines the quality of a pitching performance, is No. 2 in the National League.
The southpaw has dominated the Phillies with a 1.73 ERA against them in his last six starts. Philadelphia has lost seven of the past nine times facing a lefty.
The Phillies are starting rookie Adam Morgan, who has a 2.13 ERA in his first two starts. Expect a huge regression from Morgan as the league sees more of him. Morgan was 13-28 in 69 minor league games with a 3.53 ERA.

There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4.
But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover.
The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers.
James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime.
Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs.
Prop Recommendation:
I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. 
Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games.
Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4. 

It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread.
By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation.
I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest.
On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench.
As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1.  
The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball - when he doesn't face the Cardinals. The Dodgers are 6-11 against St. Louis the last 17 times Kershaw has gone against the Cardinals.
Kershaw isn't having his typical dominant season either so far with a 4-3 record and 3.73 ERA. He has a 5.69 ERA in his last eight games against the Cardinals.
The Dodgers have key injuries on offense and have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 20 games. LA would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.
Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has been held back because of injuries not lack of talent. The lefty has been strong in three starts since coming off the DL posting a 2.70 ERA. Note, too, that the Dodgers' OPS versus southpaws is .693 compared to .806 against righties.

Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5.
The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena.
I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair.
The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively.
Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world.
But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league.
The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson.
The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent.
Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot.
Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest.
The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis.
DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason.
The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that.
Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared.
Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.

Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them.
Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday.
Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA.
I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games.
The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series.
Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field.
The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points.
The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.

Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots.
Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left.
Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars.
The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play.
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out.
I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.  

The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close.
It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries.
Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up.
Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games.  
Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team.
Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either.
Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3.
The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum.  
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams.
The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.

Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness?
Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life.
Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender.
Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks.
The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs.  
Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points.
Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities.
These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games.
So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.



 
 
 

This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it.
Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory?
No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors.
The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played.
The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests.
Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.  

 

Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith.
But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.
Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays.
I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots.
The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest.
This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.

Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here.
Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent.
Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line.
John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague.  
Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday.
The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game.
It's time to face that reality.

Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1.
The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James.
Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James.
Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience.  
I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah.    
Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.  

Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game.
The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared.  
Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder.
Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team.
This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1.

I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA.
The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead.
The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games.

 NFL Draft Props 
Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1
At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected.
Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons.
There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12.
The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.

More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1
I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20.
Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs.
Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.

Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here.
The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match.
Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home.
Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point.
Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game.
Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can  beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.

Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday.

Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right. 

The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor. 

The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games. 

Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis.  

Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home.
Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points.
These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor.
I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series.
San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row.
Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3.

Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. 
New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. 
The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2.
Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. 
Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. 
Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. 
It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest.
New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30. 

Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2. 

The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter. 

Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum.  

This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon. 

Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals. 

Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1. 

The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies.

Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting.   

Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks.
The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game.
New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher.
Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia.
That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased.
The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27.
Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday.
The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.

First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost.

Here is my analysis on the game:

Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls.
The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season.
Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble.
Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.

Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season.
Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games.
Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest.
The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February.
Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games.
This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going.

This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team.
Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat.
The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries.
Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies.
Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
 

I see the Dodgers rebounding in a big way after losing to Arizona last night. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he's opposed by Archie Bradley, who is making his first big league start.
Kershaw has given up just one earned run in his last two starts versus the Diamondbacks spanning 15 innings. The Diamondbacks ' offense is heavily reliant on superstar Paul Goldschmidt and he's batting .206 lifetime against Kershaw in 29 at bats. Arizona has lost in six of its last seven games versus southpaws.
Bradley has to not only prove he's big-league ready, but also that's he over a right flexor strain that bothered him last year when he went 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 18 minor league starts.

This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span.
That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago.
The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them.
Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking.
The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.
The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams.

This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here.
Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday.
The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month.
Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can.
The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes.
I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.

Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest.
But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup.
Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game.
The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up.
Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now.
The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.
The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami.
The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
 

The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here.
The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points.  
Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes.
Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday.
 

These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is.
The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up.
The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time.
The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday."
The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog.
Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots.
One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him.
Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers.
Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too.

First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center.
The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range.
The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game.
The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday.
The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.

A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic.
But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor.
Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent.
Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range.
The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. 

All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins.
But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here.
The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did.
Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits.
This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead.
Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.

The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form.
Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span.
Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks.
Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there.
The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points.  

First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game.
My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points.
Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio.
The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line.
Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated.  
The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.

The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.

I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas.
The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes.
The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points.
Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points.
The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.   

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer.
Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot.
The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets.
Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng.  
Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well.
The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner.

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night.
But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks.
The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup.
The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight.
Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle.
The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games.
Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games.
Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale.
The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school.
Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took. 
 

Orlando is a lottery team that has lost eight of its last 10.
But the Magic excel in situations exactly like this, partly because the marketplace usually doesn't care for them.
Orlando has covered 17 of the past 22 times versus foes with a winning home mark. The Magic is 6-1 ATS the past seven times they've been double-digit road 'dogs.
Houston is a bit fat after an impressive road upset win against the Clippers two days ago. The Rockets have more challenging tasks following this matchup hosting improved Denver and playoff-contender Phoenix. There is no reason for the Rockets to go all out against a non-conference lottery foe.
Orlando is vulnerable from 3-point range, which is Houston's strength. However, the Rockets are in a long range shooting slump making just 27.5 percent from beyond the arc during their last five games compared to hitting nearly 35 percent before then.
The Magic have improved a great deal defensively once they got rid of Jacque Vaughn. They are off an embarrassing 123-108 loss to the Cavaliers this past Sunday. This is what Magic coach James Borrego said following that loss to Cleveland. "Tonight (Sunday) was not a great defensive effort. It was probably due to Cleveland and partly our effort, our execution defensively. But we are a defensive team, and I'll continue to say that. Our identity is on the defensive end."
Statistics back up what Borrego says. Even giving up 123 points to the Cavaliers, Orlando still is surrendering nearly three fewer points per game at 99.5 since Borrego replaced Vaughn, while forcing nearly three more turnovers per game, too.
The Rockets historically have trouble with Orlando, too. The Magic have covered nine of the past 10 in the series, including the last four in Houston. The Rockets also may be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with an elbow injury.

The Lakers actually have been playing excellent defense during their last six games holding foes to an average of 91.6 points per game during this span.
LA isn't winning, but is staying close and covering spreads. The Lakers have not lost by double digits during their past 12 games and are 7-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. They also have covered in their last four road games.
The Lakers are going with a lot of youngsters. So they are one of the few teams with fresh legs at this late stage of the season. Stronger foes also are resting key players, or at least reducing their minutes when they play the Lakers.
Golden State has one of its bigger games of the season on deck when it hosts Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a revenge spot for the Warriors and a pivotal matchup in deciding the NBA's best record. So I'm not expecting big minutes from their starters, or an all-out intense effort. At the very least, the back-door should be wide open.
The Warriors have had trouble gearing up for lottery teams failing to cover eight of the past nine times versus below .500 opponents. Golden State plays five games during the next eight days. So this figures to be a spot where the Warriors will be reducing starter's minutes.

UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis.
Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record.
The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.

The Pistons were blown out last night by the Trail Blazers losing by 19 points. Detroit is 6-0 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS the next game when they didn't cover the spread during their previous game.
Detroit can match up to the Jazz's tall front line with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, both of whom are having solid seasons. Drummond has pulled down 20 or more rebounds in three of the last five games. The Pistons would catch a major break if Utah center Rudy Gobert, who is having a breakout season, can't play after tweaking his ankle during the Jazz's last game this past Thursday.
The line is high here because Utah is playing its finest ball winning nine of its last 11. Detroit has lost nine in a row to fall out of playoff contention.  This is the Pistons' final game of their road swing. I see a bounce back effort after last night's embarrassing defeat. 
This is the fourth time in their last 10 games the Jazz are laying more than seven points. They are 0-3 ATS the previous three times. Utah is 26th in scoring. The Jazz lack the offense to lay a big number.  
The Pistons can stay with the Jazz. In their last eight road games, the Pistons have only lost by more than seven points twice. During this span, the Pistons beat the Hornets by 28 points, lost by three to the Pelicans, lost by five to the Pacers, lost by four to the Wizards and lost by seven to the Warriors.

The Hawks have little to play for these days with the best record in the Eastern Conference all but clinched. That's been evident when the Hawks rested starters in a loss to the 76ers this past Saturday and during a 115-102 blowout loss two nights ago to the lowly Nuggets.
When the Hawks want to play, though, they are an elite team. That was the case a week ago when the beat the surging Cavaliers by nine points.
I see the Hawks wanting to get back on track after that embarrassing defeat to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS the past nine times following a defeat and has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road games.
Since Feb. 28, the Suns have played three opponents with winning record. In those games they lost by 25 to the Spurs, by 10 to the Cavaliers and by 18 to the Warriors. The losses to the Spurs and Warriors came at home where the Suns have dropped four of six.
Phoenix also might be missing Brandon Knight again. He's dealing with a sprained ankle that caused him to sit out Phoenix's last game this past Wednesday, a victory against the Timberwolves.
The Suns lack the size to hurt Atlanta inside and they give up the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage when playing at home at 38.5 percent. Sparked by sharp-shooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks own the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 38.5 percent.

 

Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas.
Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either.
The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game.
I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.

Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games.
Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games.
This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.

Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game.
The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there.
Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13.
The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark.  
Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.

The record shows New Orleans and Milwaukee each having 29 losses. But know this: New Orleans is better than Milwaukee. And the Bucks playing at home doesn't change that.
The Pelicans are 7-2 in their last nine games. Every game is a must win spot for them as they battle to grab the final playoff position in the much superior Western Conference.
New Orleans is coming off a win against Memphis this past Friday. That was Anthony Davis' third game back from a shoulder injury. He's averaging 30.3 points and 12.3 rebounds since returning. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are playing at high levels, too.
Trading for point guard Norris Cole to help fill the void of injured point guard Jrue Holiday was a shrewd move by the Pelicans. Cole is a nice complementary player and knows how to win having collected a couple of rings when he was with the Heat.  
The Pelicans have covered seven of the last eight times on the road when going against a foe with a winning home record.
The Bucks were maybe the biggest surprise team of the first half. But opposing teams have caught up to them and the Bucks have gotten worse after trading point guard Brandon Knight and getting turnover-prone, poor shooting Michael Carter-Williams in return.
Since that deal, the Bucks have gone 3-6. Their only victories during this span were against the Nuggets, 76ers and Wizards. This was before Denver made its much needed coaching change and had lost 13 of its past 15. The 76ers are tied for the second-fewest wins in the league. The Wizards are 4-13 in their last 17 games and were without Bradley Beal. The Bucks needed a career-game from Kris Middleton to get past Washington. 
Before swapping point guards, the Bucks had won eight of nine. The young and inexperienced Bucks haven't fully adjusted to Carter-Williams and have lost some of their chemistry and confidence. The Bucks have turned into an undisciplined, out-of-control team playing not to lose instead of being loose.
The Bucks now step up in class to face a legitimate Western Conference playoff contender that is playing well. Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference opponents.
The Pelicans have a good track record versus Milwaukee winning 14 of the last 16 in the series, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Milwaukee.

The timing is right for the Timberwolves to upset the Trail Blazers.
Minnesota has lost four in a row, including all three during its current homestand. This is the Timberwolves' final game at Target Center before heading out for four consecutive road games - all likely losses since they face the Clippers, Suns, Thunder and Spurs.
The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Nuggets in their last game. Flip Saunders said it was his team's most disappointing loss in two months. Following an off day and then a day of practice should ensure a fresh and motivated Timberwolves squad for this matchup. Nikola Pekovic and Gary Neal are expected to play.
This will be Portland's first game since finding out that Wesley Matthews is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on Thursday against the Mavericks. Matthews isn't just Portland's third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. He brings a strong all-around game and is a steady force having played in 153 straight games. Matthews is an underrated player and his loss is going to be felt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are the stars, but Matthews has been the unsung glue for Portland.
 The Trail Blazers' weak bench is made worse by the Matthews' injury since it elevates Arron Afflalo into the starting lineup. Afflalo is having a down year so far. That may change since he's now with the Trail Blazers and not the Nuggets. But he's still going through an adjustment period.  
The Timberwolves usually play better defense at home. They also have capable scorers. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.9 points in his last seven games. Minnesota has covered five of the past six times at home.
Portland is in a weird spot and not just because of the shell shock over losing Matthews. The Trail Blazers just hosted the Mavericks on Thursday and blew them out. After this game they fly back to Portland for consecutive home games. So this is an odd situational element and also marks Portland's third game in four days. That's rough on any team especially one with weak reserves.

The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols.
That game didn't finish until late Thursday night. Connecticut starters logged 165 floor minutes. Now the demoralized Huskies have this quick turnaround to Philadelphia knowing their only realistic hope of defending their NCAA title is to win the American Athletic Conference tournament. An early start time here certainly doesn't help fatigued Connecticut either.
The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. They have lost and failed to cover in five of their last seven conference road matchups falling 30 points below market expectations in these games. The Huskies actually would best be served by not wasting energy because a victory isn't going to improve their NCAA chances. They're going to need to win the AAC Tournament so they should scale back the minutes of their starters in preparation for achieving that long-shot goal. So I'm certainly not expecting to see the Huskies' "A" game here.
Temple needs this game more than Connecticut in terms of trying to land an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls are 21-9. They have covered eight of their last 11 AAC games. They defeated Connecticut, 57-53, on New Year's Eve on the road in overtime. The setting is much better here for the Owls.
The atmosphere should be highly favorable for Temple. This is the last home game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan. The Owls also played two days ago, but their starters logged 35 fewer minutes than Connecticut's starters did on Thursday. Temple not only is the better team but is in better shape for this matchup mentally and physically.

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Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games.

The Cougars are capable at home owning victories against Stanford and Oregon. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent that has a winning road record. 

Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila.
Of course I'm not expecting Colorado State to win this rematch by 56 points even with Avila back. But the Rams should prevail easily by double-digits.  
Colorado State is a bubble team that can't afford a slip up here. The Rams create big match up problems for the Wolf Pack with their four-guard offense and up-tempo style.
The Rams average nearly 73 points per game. Nevada doesn't have the offense to stay with them. The Wolf Pack lost by 32 points to Boise State, by 16 to Utah State at home and by 13 on the road to the Aggies. Those two teams are similar to Colorado State.

The Suns are worse than their overall won-lost record. Their players realize they aren't going to make the playoffs after some early season promise so morale and chemistry are down. Phoenix has dropped 10 of its last 13. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Magic have become rejuvenated defensively under interim coach James Borrego. Since Borrego replaced inept Jacque Vaughn nine games ago, the Magic have given up an average of 92 points per game. Not one opponent has reached triple digits against them during this past nine-game span.
Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in is last 11 games and can take advantage of the Suns' 28th-ranked defense and minus 2.2 rebound differential.

This is a lot of points to be taking with a hot Jazz squad especially with such a low over/under total.
Utah is playing its best defense of the season holding its past five foes to an average of 82.8 points per game. The Jazz are 6-2 in their last eight games - and their wins have come against solid opponents. During this span, Utah has defeated the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Bucks.
The Jazz have the height and physical front line to match up to the Grizzlies with Derrick Favors and underrated Rudy Gobert.
Memphis isn't playing well right now. In their last three games, the Grizzlies lost by 12 points to the Kings, lost by 18 to the Clippers who were missing Blake Griffin, and nipped the Timberwolves by four.
The Grizzlies also have a bigger game on deck Wednesday when they play on the road against the Rockets.  

Forget their season record. The Timberwolves are much better now with a healthy roster, except for Nikola Pekovic who is questionable, and the addition of Kevin Garnett.
Garnett is near the end of a great career, but the team's all-time leader in points and rebounds can still inspire and provides much needed leadership and a winner's mentality. Garnett's return to Minnesota also has rejuvenated the fan base. Garnett purchased 1,000 tickets for this game to be given out to fans.
The Timberwolves have the talent to upset the Blake Griffin-less Clippers and they catch LA in a vulnerable scheduling spot. The Clippers are off impressive road victories against the Grizzlies on Friday and Bulls on Sunday. After this game, the Clippers fly back to LA to host Portland on Wednesday in a much more challenging contest for them.
Despite these recent victories, the Clippers still are 6-13 ATS during their past 19 road contests. They also haven't done well when playing on Monday failing to cover seven of the past eight times on that day.
Minnesota has covered its past four home games and in six of its last seven versus Western Conference foes.

The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting.
The Beavers are 1-4 in their last five games. Never a strong offensive team, the Beavers averaged 49.7 points in those four losses. Oregon State can't play on the road either losing and failing to cover in eight of its 10 away matchups, including the last five.
Oregon State's latest road defeat came this past Thursday to Stanford, 75-48. The Cardinal scored 47 second-half points.
Cal is celebrating senior day and has beaten Oregon State four consecutive times at home. The Golden Bears are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but hold matchup edges to go with their home-court advantage against Oregon State.
Aside from Gary Payton II, the Beavers can't match Cal's talent level. Tyrone Wallace is one of the top guards in the nation. He and Jordan Mathews are one of the better guard tandems in the West.
The Golden Bears also can exploit a size advantage. Their up-tempo backcourt can take advantage of Oregon State's depth issues that are made worse by getting worn down this late in the season.

Both teams played last night, which favors the deeper Hawks. 

Miami isn't close to Atlanta's level. It has been more than a month since the Heat even beat an above .500 team. Their last five victories have been against the 76ers, Knicks twice, Magic and Celtics before the Isaiah Thomas trade. 

The teams met twice this season and the Hawks won both times by double-digits. Miami has fared much better on the road than at home where it is 10-16 SU, 8-16-2 ATS. The Hawks, by contrast, have covered 20 of their last 26 road contests. 

The Heat are minus Chris Bosh and have ball-handling problems that the Hawks can exploit. 

The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points!
The Beavers' weak bench figures to get exposed by Stanford, a veteran squad that also can take advantage of the Beavers being without suspended 6-foot-7 forward Victor Robbins.
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.  
 

The Suns are not a playoff team - and they know it. Their frontcourt is nothing special and their backcourt isn't deep anymore.
Until they beat hopeless Denver last night, the Suns were 1-8 in their last nine games, losing five in a row. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Western Conference matchups.
The Suns lose part of their home-court edge having to play last night in Denver while the Thunder was idle. The Suns come home tired. Oklahoma City has covered in six of its last eight visits to the desert.
The Thunder have covered in their last seven games. They are 4-0 since the All-Star break beating market expectations by 30 points during this span.
No player has had a better February than Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka is playing at a high level now, too, and can help Oklahoma City's front line take advantage of the Suns' mediocre inside players. The Suns give up the third-most points in the NBA, have the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league and are undergoing trade-transition trouble with nearly one-third of their roster revamped.

The timing is right to ride the red-hot Cavaliers and fade the Warriors in this matchup. Cleveland is 17-2 in its last 19 games and has won 10 in a row at home. They catch the Warriors in the middle of a six-game road swing and not playing up to their earlier high standards. In their last two games, the Warriors allowed the Pacers to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor and then allowed the Wizards to make 53.2 percent of their field goals this past Tuesday.
Going back even further the Warriors only beat the 76ers by five points, Timberwolves by three and struggling Spurs by 11. Maybe in the end the Warriors prove to be the best team, but right now they are in a down cycle.
The Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for this matchup especially with a revenge factor and being on the road during four of their next five games. Cleveland was missing LeBron James when it lost to Golden State last month and entered that matchup on a three-game losing streak.
The key to beating the Warriors is limiting their fast breaks and defending well against the 3-pointer. The Cavaliers allow less than 10 fast break points at home, which leads the league. The Cavaliers have held their last three opponents to 22 percent from 3-point range.

Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road.
South Dakota has won five of its last six, including its last four. The Coyotes are playing consistent yet still are capable of more. This is what South Dakota coach Craig Smith was quoted as saying following the Coyotes' last game: We are consistently starting to play our best, but I am not sure if we've had our best game. But we've show more consistency in the last two weeks."
South Dakota has the better offense, better athletes and stronger bench. Denver is in real danger if it gets into foul trouble. The Coyotes have a winning record in the Summit League, while Denver is five games below .500 in league play. South Dakota has covered six of the past eight times versus opponents with a losing mark.
South Dakota defeated Denver, 74-69, on the road on Jan. 4. The Coyotes achieved this despite making just 41.8 percent of their shots from the floor while the Pioneers connected on 53.5 percent of their shots from the field. Denver also hit 17 of 20 free throws for 85 percent. The Pioneers are a good free throw shooting team, but not nearly that good. The Pioneers average fewer than 63 points per game.
Denver won its last game, beating Western Illinois on the road. Western Illinois is tied for last in the Summit at 3-11. The Pioneers are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times following a victory. That was just their second road win in 11 away matchups this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their lined road contests this season. The Pioneers have failed to cover the past three times they've been underdogs.


 

Look I'm not fooled by the Pistons' 23-33 record. They are better than that and have been playing well going 18-10 in their last 28 games, including posting decisive victories against the Bulls and Wizards following All-Star break.
But I'm not sold on the new-look Pistons stepping up in this matchup against a vastly superior opponent that is the hottest team in basketball. The Cavaliers have come together winning 16 of their last 18. During this time, the Cavaliers are shooting a league-best 47.9 percent from the field while averaging 108.6 points.
The Cavaliers have adjusted to their new faces, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. They have fit in well supporting  superstars LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
The Pistons are on their third starting point guard with newcomer Reggie Jackson, who will be making just his second  appearance with Detroit. Jackson likely will be joined in the starting lineup by another Detroit newcomer, Tayshaun Prince. The Cavaliers are the wrong team - at the wrong time - for the Pistons to make these adjustments against.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS on one day's rest and has covered 11 of the past 15 times following a win.  

You have to go back to mid-December to find the last time the Spurs dropped three in a row. The Spurs are 0-2 out of the All-Star break losing to the Clippers and Warriors. Now, though, they step way down in class.
Utah is off an impressive 92-76 win against Portland this past Friday in its first game following All-Star break. That was the Jazz's second consecutive home victory. They haven't won three in a row at home all season.
The young Jazz are a lottery team and very inconsistent. They are 11-15 at home with a .500 spread record in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio's offense is down this season. Tony Parker has yet to fully get going. But the Spurs still average 97.6 points on the road. The Jazz have lost 30 of the past 34 times when giving up 97 or more points.  
The Spurs have a huge edge in talent with Parker, a still highly effective Tim Duncan at 38 and Kawhi Leonard. They aren't going to lack for motivation either off back-to-back defeats.
When the teams last met on Jan. 18 in San Antonio, the Spurs held the Jazz to their lowest point total in 16 years winning 89-69.  

The Hawks haven't lost three in a row all season. They will, though, if they lose this matchup. I don't see that happening.
Atlanta wasn't playing up to its early high standard right before the All-Star break and then came out of the break getting blasted 105-80 by the Raptors at home.
I see the Hawks hunkering down here, improving their defense and comfortably beating the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing well, but its lineup is different now with Brandon Knight gone. Until Michael Carter-Williams is ready to return from a toe injury - and it won't be here - the Bucks are way below average at point guard.
The Bucks' strength is coaching, versatility and a strong bench. The Hawks have all of those traits, too, plus a far better starting lineup with four All-Stars. The Hawks have won during their last five visits to Bradley Center.
There are several distractions the Bucks face, too. They were active at the trade deadline so adjustments have to be made. Also Larry Sanders was let go ending an on-going saga. Milwaukee was fortunate to draw totally messed-up Denver for its first game following the All-Star break. This is a huge step up in class.  
Atlanta received a wake-up call from the Raptors. The Hawks haven't been playing well - which is a big reason why this line is so low. But I see a full, focused effort from the more talented team. That should result in an easy Hawks cover.

UAB has qualified for the Conference USA Tournament. The Blazers are coming off a huge emotional home victory against Western Kentucky this past Thursday, 71-66. They are a decent, but far from outstanding team.
Marshall has a bad record but has been coming on. The Thundering Herd had won and covered three in a row until suffering an embarrassing 90-51 road loss to Middle Tennessee State this past Thursday where they were outscored 50-7 at one juncture of the second half.  
This is what Marshall coach Dan D'Antoni was quoted as saying following that humiliation: "We've got to be a little more disciplined and a little more tougher minded. I thought when things went bad you could see them kind of drooped. You could see the droop. That was something we did early in the year and don't want that to come back."
I see Marshall, which is still trying to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament, giving a full, all-out effort here and getting good line value due to its blowout loss in its last game. The Thundering Herd are 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. They also are 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss of more than 20 points.
The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

I'll go with the borderline playoff team from the Western Conference against the borderline playoff team from the much inferior Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans are a .500 club playing in the far more difficult division while Miami is 23-30.
The Heat have been a better road club. They are 9-15 SU at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Miami is 2-8-1 during its past 11 home contests versus opponents with a losing road mark.
This has become a crucial game for the Pelicans after losing last night to the Magic. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson each returned from injury, but both were rusty against the Magic. They should both be much better today. The Heat have no one near the caliber of Davis.
New Orleans has covered 13 of the past 16 times when playing without rest.  
Dwayne Wade is back for Miami from a hamstring injury, but his minutes may be limited since he played last night. The Heat had an easy time since they played the Knicks, who are now without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. The Pelicans are several tiers above the Knicks.
Goran Dragic could make his Miami debut here. However, there is going to be an adjustment period for Dragic, Wade and the rest of the team. Chris Bosh remains out and his health concerns must be a team distraction.

Nobody is saying the Nets are a good team. But despite an awful record, the Nets are just one game out of a playoff spot. Brooklyn can't compete against elite teams, but can be trusted to take care of business against bottom feeders.  
The Lakers are 1-15 in their last 16 games going 3-12-1 ATS. They have dropped six in a row, rank last in defense and are in the midst of more lineup changes. Winning is not paramount with the Lakers. Improving their lottery position is.
Minus Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have no one to push and motivate.  
The week-long All-Star break should prove beneficial to the veteran-laded Nets especially for Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. Brooklyn retained Brook Lopez so it has a scoring advantage inside against the Lakers.
The Nets improved themselves at the All-Streak break trading Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young, who is averaging 14.3 points this season and ranked in the top three in steals last season. Young should be available against the Lakers.
The Nets give up nearly seven fewer points per game than the Lakers and their defense is going to be improved with Young's presence. Brooklyn ranks 14th defensively despite not having a player ranked in the top 50 in steals.  
Brooklyn has four more road games on this Western Conference road trip. This is the Nets' easiest matchup. They can't afford not to be ready.

I see the Kings and their fans motivated and energized for the first time in a long period with the coaching switch to George Karl, who makes his Sacramento coaching debut here.
The Kings have a huge frontcourt edge with DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging a career-high 23.8 points and 12.5 rebounds. The Celtics are further hampered inside with Jared Sullinger out with a foot injury. Sullinger is Boston's leading scorer and rebounder. The Celtics lack size minus Sullinger.
Boston's lacks the frontcourt depth to adequately replace Sullinger. The Celtics' backcourt was upgraded at the trade deadline yesterday with the acquisition of Isaiah Thomas. He is not expected to play tonight. If Thomas does play, it will be an adjustment with all new teammates. The Kings also know their former teammate.   
The Celtics have lost in their last three trips to Sacramento and are 1-4 ATS the past five times playing the Kings on the road.

Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint.
The Utes have won their Pac-12 games by an average of 22.8 points per game. They rank No. 1 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Oregon State doesn't have the offensive to stay with the Utes even at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have failed to cover in six of their last seven Pac-12 contests.
The only thing keeping this spread under double-digits is Oregon State's unbeaten home mark. Look for that to get erased in a big way in this matchup, though.

I like Doc Rivers, but no coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich.
This, of course, is the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. The Clippers entered the break 3-5 in their last eight games. They are not in great form especially defensively where they have surrendered an average of 110.4 points during their past five games.
San Antonio plays at Golden State on Friday. The Spurs are not going to be favored in that matchup. No way does Popovich want his team losing their first two games following All-Star break.
The Spurs also will be extra motivated by an embarrassing 105-85 home loss to the Clippers during their last meeting on Jan. 31. That was the Clippers' widest margin of victory ever against San Antonio. The star of the game was Blake Griffin, who scored 31 points and pulled down 13 rebounds.
Griffin is expected to be out at least another two weeks after having surgery last week to remove a staph infection from his right elbow.
The Spurs are the better defensive club, giving up four less points per game than the Clippers. San Antonio, though, is averaging 103.9 points per 100 possessions down from 108.2 from last season when they won the championship.
Tony Parker hasn't had a great year. Look for Parker, who had been dealing with a sore hamstring, to be rejuvenated following the long break and up for the challenge of squaring off against fellow star point guard Chris Paul.
The Spurs have a long history of starting to peak following the break. The Spurs have shown signs of coming on winning 13 of their last 17. They are fresh following the All-Star break, are a prideful, extremely well-coached team with revenge and draw the Clippers minus their star inside scorer, Griffin.
All of this should result in the Spurs winning this game by more than a basket.   

Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats have had only one bad conference road loss in six trips. They covered at Wisconsin. They beat Rutgers, which defeated Wisconsin at home. The Wildcats also took Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing and lost hard-fought road games to Michigan and Maryland by a combined three points. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road matchups.
Minnesota's defensive weakness is 3-point defense. The Gophers give up 35.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc, ranking them 241st. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 35.8 percent.
The Gophers were blown out in their last game by Indiana, which leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting. Prior to that game, the Gophers had won three in a row beating Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes ranked ninth in the league in 3-point shooting while the Boilermakers were 12th and Cornhuskers 14th.
Before meeting Indiana, the Gophers had played just one of the Big Ten's top five 3-point shooting teams and that was Maryland. The Terrapins made eight 3-pointers in beating the Gophers, 70-58, at home. Northwestern lost to the Terrapins by one point on the road.  
Minnesota has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 Big Ten games. Its last two meetings against Northwestern have been decided by a combined seven points.

Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions.
Michigan State is off its best week of the season blowing out Northwestern on the road and defeating then 23rd-ranked Ohio State this past Saturday. This is the time where Tom Izzo has his Spartans starting to peak. I don't see them taking a step back against a banged-up and demoralized Michigan squad that has lost three overtime contests during its past six games.
Michigan has lost five of its past six, including its last four. The Wolverines have a short bench and are minus their best players as Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert remain out. Their perimeter game really is hurting without those two.
The Wolverines are averaging 57 points during regulation in their last three games. Michigan State ranks 54th defensively giving up 61.2 points. I don't see the Wolverines putting up enough points to get the cover.  
Note, too, that Michigan has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 home games.

The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road.
But there is far more behind the records that indicate the underdog Panthers are the right play in this matchup.
Pitt is playing its finest ball. In their last five games, the Panthers have gone 4-1 with their only loss during this span coming to Louisville in which they led by six with 12 minutes left. Pittsburgh has knocked off Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina by 13 points in its last game during this span.
The Panthers aren't going to lack for motivation even coming off the huge win against the Tar Heels just two days ago. That's because they likely need a win - or at least to play a close game - to impress the NCAA Tournament committee that they are capable of playing well on the road since they lack quality road victories.  
This is what Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was quoted as saying about his team, "You're seeing guys improve. They're playing with a lot of confidence. We're getting better at the right time."
Virginia is not the same since losing forward Justin Anderson, its best player and defender. He's missed the past two games with a broken finger and remains out. Since Anderson was lost, the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State, 51-47, as a 7-point road favorite and nipped Wake Forest, 61-60, at home as an 18-point favorite this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons had the ball at the end with a chance to win.
Virginia was 3-of-23 from 3-point range in those two games. Anderson is by far the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter. North Carolina State and Wake Forest are a combined 10-16 in ACC games.
The Panthers played the Cavaliers tough during their two meetings last season losing 48-45 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and falling 51-48 in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Panthers shot a combined 34.4 percent from the floor in those two games and still lost each time by just three points.
No, the Panthers aren't going to shoot 64.9 percent from the floor and score 89 points like they did versus North Carolina two days ago. But they are more than capable of keeping this far closer than this spread indicates especially with Anderson out for the Cavaliers.

This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season.
Wisconsin is outstanding, obviously capable of winning the NCAA championship. So this isn't a fade on the Badgers. It's just a strong belief that Illinois can keep this close. The Illini have reached a high point in their season with four straight victories pushing their record to 17-8.
Illinois is capable owning victories against Baylor and Maryland, two teams that rank in the top 15 in the RPI standings. The Illini also have senior guard and leading scorer Rayvonte Rice back. He had missed nine games with a broken hand and team suspension, but got some rust off against Michigan in the Illini's last game. Rice averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Badgers last season.

Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though.
Oregon State is hungry to establish its credibility away from Corvallis. It desperately needs a road win and the timing is right here. USC is really struggling. The Trojans last won on Jan. 7. They've lost nine in a row and are likely to be without point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who injured his surgically repaired left shoulder during USC's 80-75 home loss to Oregon this past Wednesday.
McLaughlin, the Trojans' team leader in assists, steals and minutes played, is difficult to replace. USC is thin and weak shooting in the backcourt. Making matters worse for the Trojans is Oregon State has one of the best defensive backcourts in the country. Gary Payton II has 70 steals and is one of the top all-around guards in the country. He has at least one steal in 24 straight games.
USC has covered just 31 percent of its last 62 home games. Oregon State has beaten USC eight of the past 11 times and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times against foes with a losing mark.

Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0.
I want Valpo going for me at home and in a revenge spot. The Crusaders lost 51-50 on the road to Green Bay on Jan. 23. Valpo fell by one point on the road to the Phoenix despite shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and missing 16 consecutive shots in the second half.
Look for the Crusaders to be far more in sync at home where they are 11-1 on the season. Since that loss to Green Bay, the Crusaders have won four in a row. The Phoenix, on the other hand, have failed to cover in four of their last five Horizon League games.
Green Bay's senior point guard Keifer Sykes might be the best player in the Horizon League. But Valpo has the more balanced lineup and a star, too, in Alec Peters. He's averaging 17.3 points and is on pace to become the first sophomore in program history to score 1,000 points in a season for the Crusaders. Valpo hasn't lost all season when Peters reaches double figures.

Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games.
Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale.
Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games.
The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

The Spurs shouldn't lack motivation as they have revenge for a blown 18-point lead in a 105-104 home loss to the Pistons last month.
San Antonio was missing Kawhi Leonard in that game and Tony Parker missed the second half. The Spurs are healthy now.
Detroit has failed to cover in 21 of its last 30 home games. The Pistons are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 home contests versus foes with a winning road mark.
The Pistons are fat and happy heading into break having defeated the Hornets on the road last night in big fashion. The Pistons have a huge backcourt disadvantage minus Brandon Jennings, who scored the winning basket in their earlier victory against San Antonio.  

The Nets are an old, veteran team composed of one-time stars past their primes. They are vulnerable to athletic, deep teams.
Memphis isn't especially athletic, nor does it have a deep bench. The Grizzlies' strength is rebounding and physical play. They are much more of an Eastern Conference team than a racehorse Western Conference opponent. Brooklyn has defeated Memphis in two of its past three meetings.  
The Nets can hang with them matchup-wise and won't lack for motivation. The veteran Nets have a lot of prideful players. This is their last game before All-Star break. The Nets are battling for a playoff spot and also some of their veterans - Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson come quickly to mind - are playing for their futures. There are trade rumors swirling around them. So a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Grizzlies aren't looking to cover a double-digit margin. They have a more important game and tougher opponent on deck Wednesday when they play the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
 

This marks the Clippers' final game of their eight-game road trip that started Jan. 28. The trip has turned into a disaster with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick out. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They have a high fatigue rating here.
But they also are catching far too many points here in a step-up spot against an overrated foe that is 3-11 against the Western Conference's seven other teams in playoff position.
Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference foes and has covered just 40 percent of its home games this season.
The Clippers have been hurt on the boards, outrebounded by 46 during their last three games. The Mavericks are not a good rebounding team, though, and will have trouble dealing with DeAndre Jordan, who has averaged 16.4 points and 15.2 rebounds in his last five games versus the Mavericks.

The won-lost records show Toronto better than San Antonio at 34-17 compared to the Spurs' 32-18. But make no mistake, there is a class difference between these two clubs.
The Spurs are far superior to the Raptors. The defending world champions finally appear healthy now for the first time.
This is the opening game of the Spurs' annual rodeo road swing - nine consecutive away matchups. San Antonio just concluded a 5-1 homestand and has won nine of its last 11. The Spurs won't be home again until March 4. They certainly want to start their trip out right.  
The Spurs are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS this season when beginning a road trip of two or more games. No coach is more dangerous with a day of extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have added incentive here, too, because their next victory would give Popovich his 1,000th win. Popovich is not the type of guy who wants that distraction and hoopla to linger with his team. The Spurs want to achieve that milestone for Popovich as soon as possible.
Toronto took advantage of a tired Clippers squad to post a 123-107 win two days ago. Prior to that, however, the Raptors lost games to the Bucks and Nets, two borderline playoff teams in the much weaker Eastern Conference.
The Raptors have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 3-12-1 ATS on one days rest. They also are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games when facing a foe with a winning road mark.
San Antonio not only has a winning road record - straight-up and ATS - but has won seven in a row versus the Raptors, including the past four in Toronto. The Spurs are far better than the Raptors on one day rest covering 23 of the past 34 times during those instances.

Matchup-wise Orlando is the more talented team. They have the best frontcourt player in Nikola Vucevic and a huge backcourt advantage.
Throw in a huge situational spot for the Magic and it's worth laying this number.
The Magic are desperate to end their 10-game losing streak and five-game home losing skid. Orlando is better than its 15-37 record with Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton. The Lakers can't match that young talent.
On Thursday, the Magic addressed their underachieving ways by firing coach Jacque Vaughn and his young assistant coaches. A coaching change usually brings short term positive results especially one needed as much as this.
Interim coach James Borrego, who is 37, will be anxious to prove himself now that he has a chance. It's probably not a coincidence the Magic made the coaching move right before playing the Lakers, who have lost eight in a row on the road and 11 of their past 12 overall games. The Lakers' morale can't be too good after blowing a late six-point lead in regulation during their last game falling in overtime to the Bucks on the road. That loss had to sting Lakers coach Bryon Scott, who doesn't like Bucks coach Jason Kidd. The feud stems from when Scott coached Kidd when they were with the Nets.  
Orlando has added incentive because the Lakers blew them out earlier this season. The Lakers likely won't be nearly as motivated coming off the matchup versus Kidd's Bucks and with a national TV game coming up next against LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday.
The Magic have been competitive in their last two games against far superior competition going against the Thunder and Spurs on the road. They lost to both of these teams by seven points, covering each game. Now they drop down in class to face the bottom-five Lakers.
 

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow.
The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups.
They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent.
Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak.
The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.