Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. 
I expect a much stronger defensive effort from Kentucky after John Calipari lit into his team about giving the Commodores too many layups and dunks. Star Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis also is in back bounce mode after a rare terrible performance. 
Florida is 2-8 against top 50 RIP ranked teams. The Gators are surrendering an average of 85 points during their last three games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. 
The Wildcats rolled past the Gators, 80-61, nearly a month ago in the first meeting despite not having third-leading scoring Alex Poythress. The senior forward is healthy for this game. 

Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack.
Now it's rematch time and the Wolf Pack are likely to be missing Coleman, their leading scorer. He has a severely sprained ankle. It would be a surprise if he played. The Wolf Pack are not a deep team. Colorado State is not a good matchup for them. The Rams are an up-tempo, high scoring team that draws the seventh most fouls in the country. They rank 31st in the country averaging 79.9 points a game. 
The Wolf Pack have struggled with the higher scoring teams in the Mountain West Conference while faring better versus the grind-out type teams. This is the wrong opponent at the wrong time for Nevada-Reno. 

Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. 
This is a huge loss for the Wildcats, who don't have anyone averaging double figures in scoring aside from Senglin and Bolomboy. Losing Bolomboy also hurts the Wildcats defensively as he is their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He also averages 17.6 points a game. 
Montana ranks among the top 40 in defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have won seven of their past eight games, including the last five. This is the first time they've been an underdog in a Big Sky Conference game all season. Martin Breunig, the Grizzlies' 6-8 senior forward, should be in line for a big game without Bolomboy to hinder him. Breunig leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 19 points a game. 
Weber State has failed to cover in its last six games, including the past three at home. The Wildcats are overrated and vulnerable missing Bolomboy. 

Oklahoma State has multiple injuries. That's always tough on a team, but it is made especially worse when taking on West Virginia. The Mountaineers have excellent depth and play tough, pressing defense. 

West Virginia won 77-60 at home when Oklahoma State was healthy. The Mountaineers should be focused, too, having last played on Monday. 

The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS during the past five meetings between the two teams. 

I'm far from convinced Kentucky even has better talent than Vanderbilt. We know the Wildcats struggle on the road where they have lost to Auburn, Tennessee, Kansas, Texas A&M, Ohio State and UCLA.

Kentucky isn't that big this season. Vanderbilt is with three 7-footers. That's a reason why the Commodores have the best defense in the SEC while leading the league in blocks. They also rank No. 2 in 3-point defense. 

Vanderbilt is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Kentucky. The Wildcats lack great depth and might be without Derek Willis, who has an ankle injury. 

Texas State upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 61-57, at home in its last game. The Bobcats, though, are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a spread cover and 0-4 ATS following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five Sun Belt games. 
Arkansas State should be pumped returning home and getting to face a weaker opponent. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS at home following three or more straight road games. 

South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. 
Tennessee is coming off an impressive 81-65 home victory against LSU. However, the Volunteers haven't won back-to-back SEC games all season and are 0-6-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. They also aren't likely to have have leading scorer, Kevin Punter. He missed the victory against the Tigers because of a stress fracture in his foot. Teams often play well the first time without their star player with the rest of the team stepping up wanting to prove something. It's more difficult the second time without a star especially following a victory. 
Punter scored 36 points when Tennessee defeated South Carolina, 78-69, at home on Jan. 23. So this is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who lead the SEC in rebounding and have a substantial frontcourt height advantage. 

First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups.
Second, the Rebels are near depleted. Already down big men Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter, their two leading rebounders, the Rebels now won't have key reserve Dwayne Morgan, who had been averaging close to 20 minutes. He's out with a shoulder injury. That leaves the Rebels down to six scholarship players.
The third key factor here is the situation. UNLV is off a crazy overtime victory against in-state rival Nevada this past Saturday at home. The Rebels tied the game on a 3-pointer by Patrick Macaw right before the buzzer sending the game into overtime. 
The spot is a double edge sword because not only do the Rebels have to come down from that high, pulling out a game against their most hated rival, but Boise State is rested, ready and has revenge. The Broncos last played on Wednesday. They blew a 76-61 lead to lose on the road to New Mexico in their last game. 
So not only are the Broncos itching to erase that stench, but have payback for a 10-point road loss to the Rebels. UNLV had Zimmerman and Carter in that matchup. The two combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in that game. 
Boise State is up-tempo. The Rebels are going to be hard-pressed to keep up with the Broncos being short-handed and at a tough road venue. 

This is going to be a tough number for Kentucky to cover. Alabama is very strong as underdogs under Avery Johnson and the Wildcats have injuries and a fatigue factor working against them playing for the third time in six days. 
The Crimson Tide is 11-3 ATS the last 14 times they've been underdogs. They've won straight-up as 'dogs of at least seven points against LSU, Florida, Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson. Alabama is 7-1 ATS the past eight times taking on a foe with a winning mark.  
One key factor why the Crimson Tide are so tough as a big underdog is their slow pace. No SEC team plays slower or more deliberate. Kentucky actually is second next to Alabama in slowest offensive tempo in the SEC. The Wildcats are further hamstrung likely missing their third and fifth-leading scorers, Alex Poythress and Derek Willis. 

The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been a bad point spread team at home all season. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home contests. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover, which came for the first time at home this past Saturday, 88-54, over Cleveland State.
The Panthers brought their "A" game to that matchup. They have Horizon League leader Valparaiso up next at home on Friday. 
So look for the Panthers to overlook Youngstown State in this flat spot. The Penguins have some talent, but are extremely young. They have a winning spread road mark, though, and have enough to cover this number if the Panthers don't play well. 

This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. 
The Anteaters have revenge for a road loss to Hawaii. Before that loss, Cal Irivne had covered four in a row versus the Rainbow Warriors. The Anteaters are 10-1 at home this season and have covered 10 of their last 14 Big West games.
Cal Irvine ranks 42nd in the country in defense holding foes to less than 66 points a game. The Anteaters have a big rebound/shot blocking edge at center with 7-foot-6 Mamedou Ndiaye. 
Hawaii also could be without guard Aaron Valdes, its second-leading scorer. He's been sick with the flu so even if he plays he may still be under the weather.

These teams are very close. Each is 21-7 overall and 10-5 in the Missouri Valley Conference. It's also a conference rivalry matchup so taking this many points looms large. Evansville pulled out an overtime victory against Southern Illinois on Jan. 28 after forcing overtime on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. The Salukis want revenge. 
Evansville could have matchup problems with Sean O'Brien, who is becoming a force for Southern Illinois. O'Brien is coming off a 24-point performance in Southern Illinois' last game and had 16 points and seven rebounds against the Purple Aces in the first meeting.
The Salukis have been more than solid away from home covering eight of their last 10 road games. The Purple Aces, on the other hand, are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home contests. 

Butler played Villanova tough in their first meeting losing 60-55 after leading by seven points early in the second half. The Bulldogs catch Villanova in a tough scheduling spot.

The Wildcats defeated Temple in a rivalry matchup and play at Xavier in a key Big East battle in their next game. Villanova is 12-1 in the Big East while Xavier is in second place at 11-3. 

Villanova has failed to cover five of the past six times it has laid double-digits and is 1-4 ATS at home when taking on an opponent with a winning road record. 

Harvard is down this season. The Crimson have failed to cover an Ivy League game all season. But this still is a lot of points for this series. It's too many in my view because the linemaker has shaded Columbia too much and the marketplace has nudged the line even higher.
The teams met at the end of last month and Columbia nipped Harvard, 55-54, after the Crimson blew a big lead. The Lions were just 1 1/2-point favorites in that game. Harvard is primed for revenge. 
Last year, Harvard was favored by five and nine points in the two meetings. Harvard won both of those games, including beating Columbia on the road by 10 points. Columbia has covered only one of its last five home games. 

Florida Atlantic has improved its outside shooting and catches Rice in a letdown spot following the Owls' road upset victory against Old Dominion. The Owls are 1-6-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. They also are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight Conference USA games. 
Rice ranks 335th in defense yielding 80.7 points a game. The Owls also rate a lowly 344th in defensive field goal percentage and 347th in 3-point defense. Florida Atlantic is averaging 80.5 points in its last two games.

Tennessee State is the better team. The Tigers are 9-3 in the Ohio Valley Conference just one-half game behind Belmont and Tennessee Tech. The Tigers have momentum having won three in a row and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. 
The Tigers last played on Saturday. while Morehead State had to play on Tuesday although it was an easy victory, 105-66, over NAIA foe St. Catharine.
Tennessee State defeated Morehead State in the first meeting this season, 77-76, just 12 days ago. The Tigers led by double-digits with two minutes left before Morehead State made the final look closer than it was by hitting a late number of 3-pointers. The Tigers won that game despite playing without their leading scorer and rebounder. 

Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. 
Houston is much the superior team. The Cougars proved that when they routed the Green Wave, 63-45, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 5. Tulane's previous two home games before upsetting Memphis were against Central Florida and South Florida. The Green Wave lost both of those games straight-up as a home favorite. They lost by eight to Central Florida and by 13 to South Florida. 
Houston averages 78.6 points per game. The Cougars hold foes to less than 70 points a game while compiling an 18-7 record. They are 5-1 in their last six games. 
Tulane holds foes to 70 points a game, but doesn't have the offense to keep up with Houston ranking 304th in scoring at 66.7 points a game and 327th in shooting percentage at 40.3 percent. Houston is the better team and also peaking while Tulane is a letdown mode after its biggest win of the season.  

Providence has revenge for a 75-68 home loss to Xavier on Jan. 26. Xavier shot 50 percent from the floor in that game. The Friars were getting 1 1/2 points for that matchup. Now they are getting much more and catch Xavier in a letdown spot.
Xavier is off a 17-point road upset win of Butler this past Saturday. The Musketeers have their own revenge game up next against Georgetown and then host Big East Conference leader Villanova next Wednesday in a game that may determine first place in the league. Xavier is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Providence needs this victory for its tournament resume. 
The Friars went 12-1 in nonconference. They've found things more difficult in the competitive Big East, but still have covered 75 percent of their road games this season and own straight-up road victories against Villanova, Georgetown, Creighton and Butler. The Friars were underdogs in each of those games. Going back to last season, Providence has covered 10 its past 12 away matchups. The Friars are as good a road team as any in the country. 

Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. 
Since then the Cardinals have been road 'dogs eight straight times. The last being this past Saturday when they upset Central Michigan - the team picked to capture the Mid-American West Division - 75-63 as eight-point 'dogs. 
Ball State is 0-5 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cardinals have a bigger game on deck hosting Northern Illinois on Friday. So this is a potential trap spot for the Cardinals, who have lacked consistency all season. Since the beginning of MAC play, the Cardinals haven't won more than two consecutive games. 
Ball State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 MAC matchups and 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing at Miami of Ohio. The Red Hawks should have defeated Ball State in the first meeting as 6 1/2-road 'dogs on Jan. 16. Ball State came back from 14 points down to win, 48-46. 

The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. 

At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. 
If you go by the Pomeroy ratings, you'll find Oakland ranked 101st and Wright State rated 138th. Oakland is the superior team and Wright State's home-court isn't enough to offset that edge even acknowledging that the Raiders have won 10 in a row at Nutter Center. 
Wright State last played at home nine days ago. The Raiders are off a huge road win against Horizon League leader Valparaiso this past Saturday, The Raiders, 13-point underdogs in that game, won on a last-second putback basket by Biggie Minnis. 
It may take a while for the Raiders to come down after that victory. They are 4-10 ATS following a cover and have failed to cover in five of their last six games played on Monday. 
Oakland is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.1 points a game, which ranks second nationally. The Golden Grizzlies are No. 1 in the conference in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Oakland guard Kay Felder leads the league in scoring at 24.7 per game. He had 33 points when the Grizzlies buried the Raiders, 89-63, on Jan. 22. Wright State failed to slow the tempo down in that matchup. 
The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Horizon League without a conference road loss. They've won their past six away games and are 21-4-1 ATS following a victory. They have too much offense for Wright State, averaging nearly 20 points more per game than the Raiders. 

Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home -  coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points. 
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season. 
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving up less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games. 
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot. 

Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine.
The Anteaters are 8-1 at home, but the Matadors have covered the last five times they've been on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage above .600. Northridge has covered four of its five Big West road contests.
The Matadors last played on Wednesday defeating Cal-State Fullerton, 75-67, at home. Irvine had to play on Thursday in Honolulu losing a Big West showdown battle with host Hawaii, 74-52. The Anteaters have a quick rematch with Hawaii hosting them next Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Anteaters have to get their sea legs back under them, along with their mental focus, returning back to California for this matchup. It's not a great spot for the Anteaters and Northridge has enough going to keep it close. 

This is the game where Kentucky proves itself on the road. 
Yes, Frank Martin has South Carolina on the upswing. But the Wildcats have beaten the Gamecocks in eight of the last nine meetings, including sweeping them two games last season winning by an average of 19.5 points a game. 
The Wildcats are coming off blowout home victories versus Florida and Georgia. Kentucky's leading scorer, Jamal Murray, is expected to play after sitting out Thursday's practice with a sore knee. 
Kentucky is 14-0 at home, but is 2-6 in its last eight road games. The Wildcats should be super focused hearing about their road woes and with upcoming away matchups against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Florida on the schedule. Those three teams are a combined 36-4 at home this season. 
Talent certainly isn't a problem for the Wildcats. They nearly beat then ranked No. 4 Kansas on the road losing in overtime on Jan. 30. If Kentucky would have won that game you would be hearing far less about its so-called road problems.
The Wildcats can hurt South Carolina inside and take advantage of the weak Gamecocks' 3-point defense. 

Now that this game has nudged up to five, I'm going to get involved with road underdog Loyola-Marymount. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering the past five times.
The Lions have revenge for a narrow 60-58 loss to Pacific in the team's first meeting this season. The Lions have a good coach, Mike Dunlap, and their young talent has gotten more needed seasoning as we move near the middle of February. 
But the main handicap is a fade on Pacific. The Tigers are off one of the biggest upsets of the season, snapping BYU's 17-game home win streak, 77-72, this past Saturday as 17-point underdogs. 
So this is a natural letdown spot for the Tigers, who won't be going to any postseason tournament due to a self-imposed ban for academic misconduct violations. The Lions can be pesky defensively and the Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus foes with a losing road record. 

San Jose State is much improved. That improvement has shown up well on the road where the Spartans have covered eight of the last nine times. They also are 8-2 in their last 10 Mountain West Conference games and should be fresh for this matchup having been idle the past week. The Spartans have double revenge motivation from losing twice last season to the Rebels. 

UNLV has key injuries, which has left the inconsistent Rebels with a short rotation. They are not strong enough to cover a margin this high against this underrated opponent down their two best big men. The Rebels have allowed an average of 87.5 points during regulation in their last two games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games. 

The Spartans didn't win a conference game last season, but are 3-8 so far this year in the Mountain West. That record becomes 8-3 when a pointspread is attached. 

Missouri Valley Conference teams are known for defense and good coaching. But the oddsmaker has set too low of a total in this matchup. Yes, Bradley nipped Loyola, 54-53, during the team's first meeting. That was just a combined 107 points.
But each team has picked up its scoring since then. Heck, Loyola is averaging 74.6 points during regulation in its last three games. 

Bradley is averaging 68 points a game during its last three games as Braves coach Brian Wardle has finally found the right rotation to bring more punch to his team's lineup. The Braves were averaging only 53.9 points during their first 22 games. Things have changed now. 

The revenge angle really factors here with Tennessee remembering an 83-77 road loss to Auburn to begin its SEC season back at the start of January. The Volunteers can really take advantage of the Tigers' backcourt shortage due to injuries and suspension of leading scorer and assist man Kareem Canty and Auburn being in a five-game losing streak.

Minus Canty, the Tigers lost 65-55 to Georgia this past Saturday. It was their worst shooting game of the season for the Tigers as they made just 25.9 percent from the floor. Tennessee is itching to go after suffering a blowout loss to Arkansas in its last game. That was a natural letdown after an upset win over Kentucky. The Volunteers will be much better prepared for this game.

Tennessee averages better than 77 points a game while Auburn yields more than 77 points a game. The Tigers aren't going to be able to keep up offensively with their depleted backcourt situation. 

The ACC is the best basketball conference in the country again. It's also a conference where teams fiercely protect their home-court and take advantage of great situations. That brings Clemson clearly into focus in this matchup. 
The Tigers are 11-2 at home, 5-0 ATS versus ACC opponents. Their last five home games have been victories against Pittsburgh by 13 points, Miami by 11, Duke by 5, Louisville by 4 and Florida State by 9. Clemson has been on the road in its last three games where it went 1-2. Now the Tigers are back home. They draw Notre Dame, fresh off an 80-76 home victory against then No. 2 ranked North Carolina just two days ago. 
That was a magical and memorable game for the Irish as they came from 15 points down to upset the Tar Heels. The student body stormed the court in celebration following the victory. 
Now Notre Dame takes to the road having lost its past two away games, falling to Syracuse by 15 and Miami by 9. The Irish are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games versus foes with a winning record. They also are 2-7 ATS following a victory. Notre Dame's leading scorer, Demetrius Jackson, is just 11-for-42 from the floor in his last three games since returning from a hamstring injury and played the entire game against North Carolina. 
Clemson has covered eight of the past 10 times versus opponents with winning records. The Tigers also are on a 9-2 covering run.


 

I see this as a venting, kill-spot for the Hoyas, who have lost three straight games. That means the Hoyas have to take St. John's seriously.

St. John's is terrible, worse than its spread record may indicate. Georgetown is the opposite - better than its record may show. The Hoyas have played a murderous schedule. Now they get a breather.The teams played Jan. 13 at Madison Square Garden. The Hoyas built a 28-point lead and ended up winning by 20 points. This one should be even easier at home. 

Kansas State has lost 7 of its last 10 and is off a hard-played loss to arch-rival Kansas. The Wildcats are in a bad spot to take on the Sooners. 

Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in scoring and has too much offense for Kansas State, which has failed to break 60 points in two of its last three games and lost by 10 to Oklahoma last month. 

Tennessee-Martin is one of the most improved teams in the Ohio Valley and is playing well. The Skyhawks have won their last two games to even their season record at 12-12. One of these wins was against Murray State, a team SIU lost to by 16 points. The Skyhawks are 6-1 ATS following a victory.
The Cougars are 1-11 in their last 12 games, including four straight losses with two of those defeats occurring as home favorites. 

Normally I wouldn't get involved with Boston College, but it's going to be very difficult for Louisville to be focused enough to cover this huge spread. The Cardinals may also not get many minutes out of leading scorer Damion Lee, who missed practice this week with a bruised knee. There is no reason for Lee to log much time in this matchup.
The Cardinals just knocked off No. 2 North Carolina. They play at Duke on Monday. So they don't care about this game. That is made even more clear following the news that the Cardinals have self-imposed a postseason ban in an attempt to lessen the blow of a potentially stiff NCAA penalty for rules violations. 
The players and coach Rick Pitino just found out about this. They were in meetings on Friday. They obviously are devastated by this news. I envision an obvious letdown with the Cardinals' emotions at its lowest ebb. Certainly their minds are not on this opponent and this game right now. 

Fairfield is excellent value as a double digit 'dog in this spot against Monmouth being in a revenge spot. The Stags had won and covered three in a row prior to their last game. They are 5-1 against the spread following a defeat.

Fairfield averages just one point less per game than Monmouth. Until their last game, Fairfield was leading the MMAC in scoring. 

Monmouth is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games versus Fairfield.

This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. 
So points should be at a premium like they were when they met for the first time this season on Jan. 2. Georgia State won that matchup, 58-46. It was the fourth straight time in the series that the road team covered as the line was pick'em. This gives Texas State revenge motivation. 
Now, a month later, Georgia State is nearly a double-digit favorite. Home-court certainly isn't worth that many points. Not only are the Panthers way down from last season, but they are in bad form. Georgia State is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in its last five games with its lone victory during this span coming in overtime by three as an 11-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. That was the last time the Panthers were home, which was back on Jan. 19.
Texas State averages only 67.1 points a game. But that's still higher than Georgia State, which averages just 65.7 points a game. 

I see this game going under the total mainly due to Kansas State. The Wildcats are strong enough size-wise and defensively to stay within this double-digit spread in this heated in-state rivalry matchup. However, they lack scoring especially with point guard Kamau Stokes unlikely to play after suffering a knee injury this past Saturday. 

Away from home, the Wildcats are averaging less than 62 points a game during Big 12 Conference action. The under has cashed six of the last seven times the Jayhawks have hosted a foe with a losing road record. 

The over has cashed four of the last five times these teams have met, including in the first meeting this season when UNLV won 86-74. That went over the total by 14 points despite neither teams shooting better than 40 percent from the floor and missing 30 of 43 3-point shots.

That game was played at a fast pace. This one should, too, especially with UNLV rebound and blocked shots leader Ben Carter out making New Mexico more of a threat to score inside. 

Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos may just have the best player in the Mountain West Conference in James Webb III. He scored 23 points when the Broncos beat New Mexico, 69-59, on the road last season. The Lobos held Webb in check in last season's rematch at Boise State. However, the Broncos still won, 76-65, because Nick Duncan connected on eight 3-pointers.
Don't expect anything to change now that we've turned the calendar year. Boise State remains a bad matchup for New Mexico because of the style of the two teams. Boise State is an up-tempo team that likes to fire up 3-pointers. The Broncos are especially dangerous at home. Discounting their game against San Diego State, which ranks first in the country in defensive field goal percentage, the Broncos are averaging 86.3 points during their last home contests. 
New Mexico can run, too, but often prefers to set up their big men with inside touches. The Lobos lack Boise State's scoring depth and explosiveness. 
Just two weeks ago, New Mexico lost to Wyoming at home. By contrast, Boise State just beat Wyoming by 10 points on the road a week ago. 

Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points.  
Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points. 

Class difference is bigger than the spread making Central Michigan worthy of an investment. Miami of Ohio has lost 10 in a row and is 0-6 in the Mid-American Conference.

Central Michigan averages nearly 14 points more per game than the Redhawks, who are showing signs of giving up on the season. 

San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. 
Not only are the Aztecs - who are undefeated in the Mountain West - taller, but they have the better athletes, too. They are leading the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and also are No. 1 defensively. 
San Diego State beat Utah State, 70-67, in Logan earlier this season and that was with the Aggies getting some homecooking. Utah State made 24 of 29 free throws in that game compared to the Aztecs making 10 of 20.

Utah State was hurt by big man David Collette transferring to Utah. The Aggies' rebounding hasn't been the same. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Aggies this being their eighth game in 22 days. 

Power ratings-wise this game should prove very close. St. Peters is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven Metro Atlantic Athletic games and have covered in 4 of their last 5 road matchups. The Gaels, meanwhile, have failed to cover in their last six home games. They also have not covered during their last 5 conference games. 

Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. 
The Gaels are No. 2 in the nation in scoring margin winning by an average of 20.5 points a game while ranking third in fewest points allowed per game at 58. Impressive, yes. But a soft home schedule has contributed to Saint Mary's dominance. I believe it's a mistake to make the Gaels a favorite against Gonzaga even though they are 13-0 at home. 
We've been down this road before with these two teams. Gonzaga was an underdog in 2013 and 2014 to Saint Mary's. The Zags won those games by 28 and 17 points, respectively. Simply put, Saint Mary's doesn't beat Gonzaga. The Zags have been the class of this conference since the late 1990s and still are the class of this conference. They have defeated the Gaels eight consecutive times, covering the past seven times. 
Gonzaga is very strong again at 14-4 with its four losses coming by a combined 12 points. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring and rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense. They have two of the top six scorers in the conference with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who also leads the WCC in rebounding. 
The Zags have won the past three meetings at McKeon Pavilion. Their 13-game road win streak is the longest in the NCAA. Saint Mary's is going to feel the pressure of being the favorite. The Gaels have been involved in two games decided by single-digits and lost both - blowing a late lead to California in a 63-59 road loss and falling to Pepperdine, 67-64, two games ago as an 8 1/2-point road favorite. 
The Gaels blew a 17-point lead at home to Gonzaga when the teams last played on Feb. 21 of 215. The Zags won that game, 70-60. Bottom line: Saint Mary's isn't ready to beat Gonzaga. Getting points is a bonus. 

The combination of a due factor for Alabama, an Auburn letdown following its upset home victory against Kentucky and a banged-up Kareem Canty make the Crimson Tide worthy of an investment.
Auburn ended an 18-game losing streak while beating a ranked team for the first time in four years when it downed the Wildcats, 75-70, this past Saturday. The Tigers came from down 47-35 to pull off the victory against the 14th-ranked Wildcats. 
Alabama is tough defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. Canty, who ranks in the SEC in assists and fourth in scoring at 19 points a game, was wearing a walk boot after turning his ankle on the game-typing basketball against Kentucky. 

The Rebels played one of their finest games when they beat New Mexico at home by 12 points this past Tuesday. That was their first game under interim coach Todd Simon. I don't see the Rebels so fired up in their second game without disposed head coach Dave Rice. 
The Rebels hit 27 of 33 (82 percent) free throws versus the Lobos while committing only seven turnovers. The Rebels shoot 66.7 percent from the foul line and were averaging 19 turnovers during Mountain West Conference action before Tuesday. 
There is going to be a natural letdown tendency for the Rebels, who have lacked backbone all season and still haven't received consistet point guard play. 
Air Force has the same 10-7 record as UNLV. The Falcons aren't nearly as talented, but they are disciplined, play solid perimeter defense and have a winning road spread mark. The Falcons also have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to UNLV. 

A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. 
I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion.
The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. 
UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. 
The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV. 

Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. 
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? 
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. 
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. 
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. 
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. 
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. 
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. 
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

Wisconsin-Milwaukee clearly is the superior team and catching Youngstown State in a letdown spot.
The Panthers could be 13-2, but lost three games in overtime. So their record is 10-5. One of those victories is against Wisconsin. The Panthers have been money-makers on the road covering 10 of their last 12 away contests.
The Penguins upset Oakland, 100-98, as 17-point road 'dogs this past Monday on a dramatic tip-in at the buzzer. The Penguins achieved this remarkable upset minus big man Bobby Hain, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury and won't play today. 
The Penguins sank 16 3-pointers in knocking off Oakland. That's the second most in school history. It's hard to believe the Penguins can be that hot again. 
The Panthers have covered the past four times in the series. 

I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. 
The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. 
Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. 
The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. 
The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. 
If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average.
Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. 
Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. 
The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more. 

Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. 

This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana. 

Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record. 

Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener.
The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. 
Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. 
Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. 
The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups. 

The total is too low considering that each team lost their star big men. Connecticut is minus Amida Brimah following finger surgery while Texas is minus Cameron Ridley, out with a broken foot. 
Both teams are playing more small ball with their star centers out. Connecticut is deep at guard. The Huskies are averaging 93.5 points in two games since losing Brimah. Connecticut has scored at least 70 points in all but one of its 11 games. The Huskies average more than 81 points a game and rank seventh in the country in field goal percentage. The over has cashed 10 of the last 11 times Connecticut has played a Big 12 opponent. 
Texas is averaging more than 80 points a game during its last five matchups. The Longhorns also have four quality guards. 
This game is in the pick range so overtime could be a possibility, too. 

Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. 
Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. 
Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series. 

New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. 
This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. 
Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.
The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. 
I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus. 

Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites.
UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. 
The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. 
UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. 

I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here.
Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. 
The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game.
Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. 
Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. 
The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games. 

Early money has come on Maryland and I agree with the marketplace. Maryland is the superior team. I respect Connecticut's defense, but the Terrapins have NBA-caliber players and rank third in the nation in field goal percentage. They have shot better than 50 percent in five straight games.

Playing and losing at North Carolina was good experience and humbling for Maryland. It makes the Terrapins more battle tested for this matchup.

Note that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden. The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in neutral site contests. Connecticut already has dropped neutral site games to Syracuse and Gonzaga. 

Look for Air Force to improved on its 42 percent field goal shooting against The Citadel, which ranks among the worst defensive teams. 
Opponents are making better than 53 percent of their shots from the floor against The Citadel. Air Force led the Mountain West Conference in field goal percentage last season at 47.4 percent. 
The Citadel can't play defense, but it can score being up-tempo, making 33 percent of their 3-point shots - which it fires at will - and hit 82.2 percent from the foul line. Only nine teams fire up more shots per game than The Citadel. The Bulldogs, though, are surrendering 106.7 points per game when playing on the road. 
The average combined final score total on a game involving The Citadel this season is 188.8 points. Air Force has gone over the total in 17 of its last 22 games. The over, meanwhile, has cashed in 21 of the Bulldogs' last 27 games. 

North Texas State has made it a high priority to improve its offense. The Mean Green are doing that by using a fast pace tempo. They have two good point guards - J-Mychal Reese and Ja'Michael Brown - and a number of good scorers. 
North Texas opened with victories against Jarvis Christian, 112-82, and Texas College, 110-61. This is North Texas' own tournament so the Mean Green wants to look good. The way to do that is score a lot of points.
Now the Mean Green face Idaho, a much stronger defensive team than the first two cupcakes they played. Still, I see North Texas getting a lot of points at home with their new style. Idaho can score, too. The Vandals have a strong backcourt. They rank 16th in the country in 3-point shooting. 

Akron has the versatility and 3-point shooters to hang around with Villanova. The Zips proved that in upsetting Arkanas, 88-80, at Arkansas.
Akron is hitting 41.3 percent from 3-point range. The Zips also rank first in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. This combination plus an inflated pointspread make the Zips attractive. 
The Zips also have a proven track record versus strong teams going 12-3-1 ATS the past 16 times when taking on opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

San Jose State is a bit under-the-radar. The Spartans are more athletic and improved from last season's disastrous season. 
The Spartans beat Montana, 64-61, in their last game this past Monday. Now they draw 1-2 Montana State, which is overpriced according to my power ratings. 
The Bobcats have failed to cover in five of their last six home games. 

Portland is a middle of the road West Coast Conference team that is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Pac-12 teams.
I see the Pilots having trouble in this tough road venue, made worse by high altitude. Colorado is extremely tough at home under Tad Boyle going 72-14. 
The Buffaloes have size, depth and talent despite the loss of several stars from last season. This is a bad early-season foe for the Pilots, who are young in the frontcourt and not settled on a rotation. I don't see the Pilots being competitive against this foe and in this spot. 

Miami has been shooting above its heads. I see the Hurricanes having problems dealing with Utah's powerful front line headed by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and Jordan Loveridge. They can control the boards and keep Miami from running. 
It's not just the Utes' front line I like. The backcourt tandem of Brandon Taylor and Lorenzo Bonam also is playing well. Utah has covered in six of its last eight neutral site games. 

Boise State has experience and star power with Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan. The Broncos are going to get their points. They are 9-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos are being underrated too much with this high of a point spread. Arizona suffered a lot of losses from last season's team with just center Kaleb Tarczewewski returning. 
Arizona has had problems with Mountain West teams failing to cover 10 of the past 11 times against them. 

Marist is well balanced, is home and coached by Mike Maker, who coached at Dartmouth for 11 years so he knows that team extremely well.

Dartmouth has failed to cover in 16 of its last 22 games. Dartmouth also is 0-5 the past five times facing an opponent from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. 

Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. 

San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home. 

DePaul has failed to cover in its last six non-conference games. I see that trend continuing here.
Western Michigan has had three consecutive 20-win seasons. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the MAC. DePaul is one of the three worst teams in the Big East. 
The line is higher than it should be because Connar Tava, the Broncos' best returning player, is out with a broken foot. But the Broncos have been practicing for weeks without him.
Western Michigan still has enough depth, athleticism and flexibility with a deep roster to overcome Tava's loss. 

California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice.
The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. 
Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup.
Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.  

Early money has come on Texas and it's smart money. New coach Shaka Smart is a great fit for the Longhorns with his trapping, full-court pressure style. 

Washington is vulnerable to it starting four freshmen. The Huskies are in transition after losing eight players and an assistant coach during the off-season following 15 losses in their last 20 games of the season. 

A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic.
But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor.
Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent.
Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range.
The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. 

I want the Pac-12 team going for me here at this short point spread range against Old Dominion of Conference USA. The Monarchs joined Conference USA just two years ago making the jump from the Colonial Athletic Association.
This was a strong year in the Pac 12. Stanford has faced stiffer competition and has the much superior offense.
Old Dominion averages nearly eight points fewer per game than Stanford. The Monarchs do not shoot well from the floor nor foul line. Their best player by far is point guard Trey Freeman, who is dealing with a sore ankle and likely won't be 100 percent.
The Monarchs have played their last three games at home inside their small, compact gym. Now they have to make the adjustment to spacious and intimidating Madison Square Garden. Stanford is more experienced with higher profile games. The Cardinal should be able to handle the pressure better than the Monarchs mentally and physically.
Stanford led the Pac-12 in fewest turnovers per game at 10.7. If Old Dominion can't be disruptive defensively the Monarchs are in deep trouble because they have no offense to fall back on.
Old Dominion has been living on borrowed time winning its last two NIT games by a combined four points, including nipping Murray State at the buzzer on a 30-foot 3-pointer. Now the Monarchs step up in class. Expect their luck to run out.

 

This is too high of a total with Old Dominion involved even with the new shot clock rule in place. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace and are very strong defensively. Only seven teams in the country gave up fewer points per game than Old Dominion, which has held foes to 56.8 points a game.  
Only Murray State, which ranked eighth in the nation in scoring, has been able to break the 60-point barrier against Old Dominion during the Monarchs' last nine games. The Racers scored 69 against Old Dominion in the quarterfinals of the NIT, which was 10 points below their season average.
Stanford averages less than 69 points a game when playing on a neutral floor. The Cardinal aren't going to get as many touches as they normally do because of Old Dominion's slow-down style, which can frustrate opponents.
Stanford isn't as strong defensively as Old Dominion. But that's offset by the Monarchs' weak offense that averages 65.1 points per contest. That averages shrinks to 57.5 on neutral courts. Old Dominion is neither a good shooting team from the field nor free throw line.
Point guard Trey Freeman is Old Dominion's best player and key. He scored 25 points against Murray State despite playing on a tender ankle that he recently sprained in practice. This is what Freeman said after the Monarchs edged Murray State this past Wednesday. "My foot hurt after the game. It was swollen up and everything was tight." So there is no guarantee Freeman will be 100 percent.
Since this is a semifinal matchup of the NIT the game is being held at Madison Square Garden. This is a large venue that can be very distracting for shooting especially for teams not having experienced it before. Both teams also are going to feel the pressure of performing in the Big Apple.
Stanford has to come cross-country while the Monarchs have played their last three games at their small gym. Neither team is going to be helped offensively by playing at this venue.

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals.
If Meeks can't play he would be replaced by another big inside man, 6-10, 280-pound Joel James.
The Tar Heels are going to want to run. Wisconsin isn't going to let that happen. The Badgers have a very efficient offense with no weak parts. But they've always been about defense under defensive guru Bo Ryan, who is even more dangerous with extra preparation time.
The Badgers rank 10th in the country in scoring defense giving up 56.8 points per game. That average shrinks even lower to 56 on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest points off turnovers of any team in the country. North Carolina thrives off turnovers and in transition, but that isn't going to happen here. I don't trust Marcus Paige against a defense as savvy as Wisconsin's.
Paige is better going against up-temp teams. The Tar Heels had problems against slow-paced Harvard in their opening NCAA Tournament game winning just 67-65 while turning the ball over 18 times. The combined score of 132 went under.
North Carolina is a bit underrated defensively. The Tar Heels held 23 of their 37 opponents to 40 percent shooting or less from the floor.
Badgers guard Traevon Jackson is going to play for the first time since breaking his foot on Jan. 11. Jackson has looked rusty in practice, which is understandable. So while his minutes could be down from the more than 27 minutes he averaged before his injury, Wisconsin's offense might suffer while he's back in the lineup.   

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

The under has cashed the past seven times in Seattle's home games. It's easy to see why. The last nine games played in Seattle have averaged less than a combined 107 points per game. 

Seattle ranks 51st in defense. The Redhawks are especially tough defensively at home allowing 56.1 points per game on 37.3 percent shooting from the floor. The Redhawks play at a slow pace, too, which is huge for the under. 

Colorado averages 69.1 points per game game, but that averages goes down six points a game when it is on the road. 

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game.
The Wolfpack have defeated Duke and won road games against Louisville and North Carolina. An added plus for the Wolfpack is the return of Anthony Barber, who is averaging 17.5 points during his last 11 games.
Villanova may not be as sharp coming off an easy win against an easy first round tournament opponent, Lafayette.

Arizona wasn't thrilled allowing Texas Southern to score 72 points. I'm expecting a stronger Wildcats' defensive effort against Ohio State.
Ohio State allows just 62.7 points per game. Arizona struggles to score when facing strong defenses. So under is the way to go in this matchup.

UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

Back in November, when they still were far from peaking, the Bruins beat the Blazers by 12 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.

UAB isn't very good and the Blazers are going to have problems coming down from their monster upset of Iowa State. The Blazers were lucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, which they hosted, or they wouldn't have received a bid to the NCAA Tournament having finished fourth in the conference during the regular season.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

Davidson reminds me of Wisconsin except for being smaller. The Wildcats average 79.9 points a game, sixth-highest in the country. They ranked in the top 17 in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Only Wisconsin had a lower turnover percentage than Davidson.
Like Wisconsin, Davidson has that rare combination of shooting well from anyplace on the court while not turning the ball over. They are smart and unselfish just like the Badgers. The Wisconsin comparison is valid and significant because Iowa went 0-2 versus the Badgers losing by an average of 21.5 points.
The Hawkeyes don't shoot nearly as well as Davidson. They ranked 213th in 2-point shooting percentage and 217th in 3-point percentage. They also were 68 spots behind Davidson in turnover percentage.  
Sometimes a late loss can actually spark a team, or at least shake their complacency. That might turn out to be the case with Davidson, which had won 10 in a row before losing in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Wildcats won the regular season A-10 title so a letdown in the conference tournament was understandable.
The Wildcats have a strong history when stepping up covering 14 of the last 17 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They also have covered during their last seven non-conference games. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

I don't see Cal Irvine, in its first NCAA Tournament game ever, holding up against the constant pressure of Louisville's outstanding defense. The Anteaters are extremely susceptible to having a spurt or two take them out of the game.
Rick Pitinio has a tremendous track record in the NCAA Tournament with Louisville. The Cardinals have reached the Final Four in two of the past three years capturing the crown in 2013.
Louisville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 NCAA Tournament games. The Cardinals are battled tested coming from the ACC. They hold opponents to less than 60 points a game. The Anteaters are inexperienced and haven't faced anywhere near the competition the Cardinals have coming from the Big West Conference.

Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament.
Eastern Washington is a dangerous underdog because the Eagles have that rare combination of making 3-pointers and getting to the rim. They are tough to prepare against. I see them causing plenty of problems for the Hoyas.
The Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. They beat Indiana on the road and buried Texas Southern, an NCAA Tournament team, by 24 points.
Sparked by guard Tyler Harvey, the Eagles are the third-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.3 points per game. Harvey shoots 43.5 percent from 3-point range and also is an 85 percent foul shooter. He has scored in double figures in every game this season except one and knows how to get to the foul line.  
A key in this matchup is Eastern Washington's long-range shooting. The Eagles have the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the country of any team that shot more than 700 3-pointers on the season. They average 24.7 treys a game. Yet they rank ninth in the nation in 3-point percentage. Georgetown ranks 267th in defending against 3-pointers. So even if Eastern Washington were to fall behind they still have a strong capability to pull off a back-door cover if needed.
The Eagles are a better free throw shooting team than the Hoyas and have an active rebounder in 6-foot-8 Venky Jois, who helps combat Georgetown's height advantage.

Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
It's easy to forget the Utes were a top 10 team in February. They haven't fallen that far down. They are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and have too much size and talent for the Lumberjacks, who don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6.
Stephen F. Austin is a prolific scoring team, but Utah ranked 13th in the country in shooting percentage at 48.5 percent. The Lumberjacks can't match the skill set of 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and guard Delon Wright. They also can't match up to the size of Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, another 7-footer. By contrast, the Lumberjacks' leading rebounder is guard Thomas Walkup.
The Lumberjacks played two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play this season - Baylor and Xavier. They lost by 16 and 18 points in those games.



  

This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas.
The Longhorns opened the season as an elite team. Then they tailed off, but showed signs of regaining their footing down the stretch. Certain teams can give Texas problems. But Butler isn't one of those teams.
Texas led the nation and set a school record in blocks. Butler's top two scorers, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, are inside players although Dunham can knock down 3-pointers. Butler finished second in the Big East Conference in two-point field goals.
The Longhorns, however, are extremely tall and athletic. They are very tough to score against inside ranking fourth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.

Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games.
Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games.
Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale.
The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school.
Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took. 
 

First off, this is not an easy trip logistically for Central Michigan getting to Ruston, La., on short notice. The Chippewas don't have a senior nor did they face a tournament team on the road this season. They had a losing spread record away from home, including losing straight-up three times as road chalk.  

Central Michigan lacks the interior defense, too, to slow down Louisiana Tech ranking 301st defending against two-pointers. 

Louisiana Tech is anchored by three senior starters who want desperately to go to Madison Square Garden after falling in the quarterfinals during last year's NIT. Tech is very strong at home having won 29 in a row.  

Central Michigan isn't a strong enough offensive rebounding team to take advantage of Louisiana Tech's rebounding weakness. 

An off-day in their conference tournament and playing on the road. Those are two key reasons why the James Madison Dukes are underdogs to South Carolina State in an opening round College Insider Tournament game.
A couple of books opened the Spartans as 2 1/2-point favorites. Early betting, though, has pushed the Spartans up to this mid range. I thought the books opened a wrong favorite, so I'm happy to fade the marketplace and back the underdog in this price range.
Yes, James Madison laid an egg in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament losing its opening game to fifth-seeded Hofstra. The Dukes simply had an off day. Three of their players had horrible shooting games. It happens.
It can't take away that the Dukes tied a school record for most single-season victories in CAA play, a conference stronger than South Carolina Upstate's Atlantic Sun. The Spartans didn't play anybody. That's why they have a 23-11 record.
Prior to losing to Hofstra, James Madison had won six of its last seven. The Dukes are 6-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. They have covered in eight of their last 10 road contests.

UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis.
Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record.
The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.

Purdue can't afford a loss here being a bubble team. So the Boilermakers won't lack for motivation. 

The timing is excellent for Purdue, which is rested while Penn State is playing for the fourth time in six days and third time in three days.

Purdue has won nine of its last 12 games.

Penn State is too dependent on D.J. Newbill. That's going to catch up to the Nittany Lions here going against the best team in the Big Ten in defensive field goal percentage.

Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Conference Tournament riding a lot of momentum winning its last five games. During this span, the Gauchos have defeated regular-season champion UC-Davis, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Cal Poly in their last game.
The Gauchos defeated the Mustangs, 64-56, at home this past Saturday. This isn't a surprise. The Gauchos have a better record and more talent than Cal Poly.
Don't look for the second-seeded Gauchos to overlook seventh-seeded Cal Poly. Just last year, the Mustangs buried the Gauchos by 31 points after losing to Santa Barbara five days before the tournament. History won't repeat itself.

Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas.
Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either.
The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game.
I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.

Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games.
Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games.
This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.

Kansas State has been up and down all season. Now the Wildcats realize they need to win this Big 12 Tournament in order to go to the Big Dance.
That's a tough order, but I see the Wildcats being up to the challenge for this first-round matchup. They are 5-3 versus the top seeds and own home victories against Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.
This isn't a home game, but playing in Kansas City does mean more Kansas State fans than TCU fans. The Horned Frogs have dropped three straight. Their only consistent scoring threat is guard Kyle Anderson.
Kansas State has talent and potential. TCU isn't in good form and doesn't shoot well from the free throw line or from long distance.

I don't see USC, losers of 13 of its past 15, keeping this close. 

The Sun Devils have really come on. They've won five of their last seven and have shown tremendous improvement during the past four weeks. I haven't seen that from the Trojans. 

Arizona State has the versatility and backcourt strength to match up well against the Trojans. I see USC struggling to keep a hot Shaquille McKissic in check. 

The Sun Devils are 5-2 in their last seven games despite shooting just 26.7 percent from 3-point range. I expect the Sun Devils to shoot better than that against the Trojans, who rank 274th in defense giving up 70.4 points per game. 

Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game.
The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there.
Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13.
The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark.  
Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.

Portland put aside concerns about finishing with four consecutive losses by upsetting Saint Mary's 69-52 this past Saturday in a quarterfinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament.
BYU, on the other hand, struggled barely getting past Santa Clara, 78-76, in its quarterfinal game on Saturday. It's obvious the Cougars are looking ahead to a likely title match against Gonzaga.
Portland should play with a lot of effort and intensity. The Pilots have nothing to lose and are playing for only the second time in nine days. They catch a huge break in the WCC changing its tournament format. There were no games on Sunday. The tournament, which is being played in Las Vegas, resumes today so it can be televised nationally.
The Cougars are 16-35 (31 percent) ATS the past 51 times they've played on a neutral court. They aren't 100 percent healthy either. senior guard Anson Winder reinjured his upper leg and Corbin Kaufusi rolled an ankle against Santa Clara. 
BYU did beat Portland both times during the regular season, winning by nine in Provo and 82-69 on the road. Portland trailed by just two, though, with 3:21 left in that loss.

Pepperdine has the defense, determination and right situation to throw a scare into Gonzaga.
The Waves are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times they've played opponents with a winning record. They've played the two top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga and BYU - very strong in four games going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Waves swept BYU and lost to the Bulldogs 78-76 at home and 56-48 in Spokane.
This is just Pepperdine's second game in nine days. The Waves catch a break in they won't have fatigue issues because the WCC switched their format giving the teams Sunday off in order to set up a nationally televised doubleheader for Monday.
The tournament is being held in Las Vegas, a neutral site. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site matchups. The Bulldogs aren't looking to cover a huge margin - just win and move on. They need to conserve energy unlike Pepperdine, which can go all out with nothing to lose being such a heavy underdog.  
Pepperdine showed its determination coming from eight points down in the second half to beat San Diego, 50-47, in the quarterfinals on Saturday. The Waves are holding foes to 61 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field.  
So Gonzaga doesn't figure to get many easy baskets especially if 6-foot-10 forward Kyle Wiltjer can't play or is limited. Wiltjer, the Bulldogs' leading scorer, suffered a hip injury late in the Bulldogs' quarterfinal win against San Francisco this past Saturday.