These are the two best defenses in the country with the numbers to prove it.

Ohio State gave up the fewest points, total yards, yards per play and also was No. 1 in pass defense. Oregon was the only team to score more than 17 points on the Buckeyes. Ohio State has permitted an average of only 13 points during its last nine games, while going against Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Penn State during this span. 

Notre Dame's offensive line has been banged-up. The Buckeyes have two potential first-round choices in their defensive line with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Irish have the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation. They rank 12th in pass defense and have 19 takeaways, which was the fifth-highest. Benjamin Morrison is in the discussion for best cornerback in college football. 

Notre Dame has given up 14 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.

Neither quarterback, Will Howard nor Riley Leonard, is a downfield gunslinging threat.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

Indiana averages 43.3 points a game, which is the second-highest in the country. Only Oregon was better in the Big Ten Conference on third downs. The Hooisers had just eight turnovers all season, third-fewest in the nation.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is an offensive guru. He has the right quarterback to operate his system in Kurtis Rourke, a rhythm passer who has five good receiving targets.

I have a red flag about Notre Dame's defense after the Irish surrendered 35 points, 559 yards and 29 first downs to USC in a 49-35 victory in their last game. USC QB Jayden Maiava had a big game with 360 yards passing and three TD throws against the Irish. I like Rourke more than Maiava.

But Notre Dame is favored for good reason. The Irish have a balanced attack. They have a physical offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage against Indiana's defensive front. Cignetti isn't going to sell out to stop the run like he did against Ohio State. That turned out to be a disaster in a 38-15 road loss to the Buckeyes. Indiana just doesn't have a strong enough defense to control Notre Dame.

Losing star players to opt outs and the transfer portal is a sad reality to handicapping bowl games nowadays.

In the case of West Virginia in this Frisco Bowl that also means a coaching change as Neal Brown was fired. Rich Rodriguez will take over next season. That leaves Chad Scott as the interim coach for this game. He's the Mountaineers' offensive coordinator.

The Mountaineers' transfer portal losses mainly came on defense. They will be short on cornerbacks and won't have their star linebacker, Josiah Trotter. Even with a full deck on defense, West Virginia gave up more than 36 points a game during their past six games.

Memphis certainly has the offense to take advantage behind four-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 102 touchdowns during his career. West Virginia ranks eighth-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

I don't trust Memphis' defense, though. The Tigers surrendered 56 points to Navy, 44 to North Texas and 44 to Texas San Antonio. They rank 115th in pass defense.

West Virginia has scored at least 31 points in four of its last five games.

Not only is this a rivalry game, but the stakes are huge because the winner becomes bowl eligible while the season is finished for the loser. That should provide for maximum intensity.

This is the lowest total on a Virginia game all season. It's justified. The Cavaliers' attack has regressed. Virginia is averaging 14.7 points in its last four games.

Virginia Tech has quarterback issues. Because of injuries to Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee, the Hokies could be forced to start third-string freshman Pop Watson. That would mark Watson's first college start. He was not accurate passing when forced into action in last week's road loss to Duke.

The Hokies' best weapon could be Peter Moore, who is one the best punters in the country.

Arkansas State is a bad defensive team. UL-Monroe, however, is heavily ground-oriented and  plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

The Warhawks rank fourth-from-the-bottom in passing. If you discount a 38-point performance against a horrendous 1-9 Southern Mississippi team, Monroe is averaging 15.4 points in its last seven games.

Arkansas State has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last eight games. Monroe ranks 23rd in pass defense.

Heavy wind, slow tempo and bad offenses all put me on the Under.

The forecast is for a chance of rain with winds gusting in the 16-22 mph range.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace. Michigan State plays especially slow.

Neither team has explosive playmakers. Purdue is averaging a puny 7.5 points in its last four games. Michigan State has been held under 20 points in six of its last seven games.

The total has been bet down in this important SEC matchup and for good reason. The defenses are better than the offenses.

Tennessee gives up the fifth-fewest yards and points per game in the nation. The Volunteers' front seven is in the argument for best in the country.

Georgia's ground game is down from past seasons and QB Carson Beck has noticeably regressed. Beck has been picked off nine times in the last four games and has 12 interceptions on the season.

The Bulldogs give up 18.4 points a game, which ranks 17th in the country. Georgia also is 13th in defensive total yards.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been inconsistent and is not 100 percent healthy. Iamaleava has surpassed 200 yards passing in just three of nine games. The Volunteers' offensive line commits a lot of penalties and is not good in pass protection.

So this figures to be a conservative game with each team relying on their defense to pull it out.

After playing Kentucky and Alabama, Tennessee steps way down in class taking on Mississippi State. There isn't a worst defense in the SEC.

How bad are the Bulldogs' defensively? They are giving up 42.6 points in five SEC games. They rank 129th out of 134 teams in yards allowed and they are the second-worst in the country in stop rate, a metric that is the percentage of defensive drives ending in a put, turnover, or turnover on downs.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is coming off a strong game against Kentucky completing 28 of 38 throws for 292 yards and a touchdown. The Volunteers rank 12th in scoring averaging 38.1 points a game. Iamaleava should have plenty of time to scan the field since the Bulldogs have only two sacks in their five SEC matchups.

Mississippi State should contribute its share to this total going Over. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards in SEC play while converting their third downs at close to a 40 percent rate. Michael Van Buren Jr. will be making his sixth consecutive start since replacing injured Blake Shapen in mid-September.

The Bulldogs are averaging 31.2 points in their last four games. They put up 31 points on Georgia.

This total is too short considering how fast these teams play and their current form.

East Carolina's last three games have averaged a total of 80.6 points being scored. 

Florida Atlantic has had at least 58 combined points scored during its last five games vs. FBS opponents. Florida Atlantic just surrendered 44 points to South Florida, who was playing without its starting QB. The Owls gave up 526 yards, including 320 rushing yards, in that loss to the Owls.

East Carolina yielded 34 points and 405 yards to Temple in its last game while scoring 54 points. Temple is a bottom tier offense averaging fewer than 21 points a game, while ranking 119th in total yards.

These are two of the weaker defenses in the ACC. Stanford gives up 31.5 points a game, which ranks 108th in scoring defense. North Carolina State allows 31.1 points per game, which is 105th.

Both Stanford and Clemson have enough playmakers to take advantage of these below par defenses. Cardinal wide receiver Elic Anyomanor is one of the most talented pass catchers in the country. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a dual threat, who has completed 62.2 percent of his passes and leads the team in rushing.

Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey is getting better each week since replacing injured Grayson McCall. Bailey has thrown for more than 300 yards each of the last two games and has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stanford ranks 123rd in pass defense.

Memphis QB Seth Henigan holds the school record for touchdown passes with 91. Henigan should face little difficulty adding to that total against a Texas San-Antonio secondary that ranks 125th in pass defense.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 46-45 road loss to Tulsa. Making that defeat so bad for UTSA is it blew a 35-7 halftime lead!

Memphis is surrendering an average of 36 points during its past two games playing UNC Charlotte and North Texas.

Neither defense can be trusted. This game also is on a fast track being played indoors at the Alamodome.

Navy has gone Over in all five of its games this season. No surprise since the Midshipmen have scored at least 34 points in every one of their games. The Midshipmen rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense and 16th in total offense.

Charlotte ranks 119th in yards allowed per game. The 49ers give up 31.7 points a game, which ranks 111th.

The 49ers' offense is off their best game producing 55 points against East Carolina two weeks ago. The 49ers had their bye this week so they should have a few new wrinkles to throw at Navy.

Sure this is a very high total. But it's totally justified. The two teams played last season and Texas State won, 77-31. The Bobcats ran up the score, too, in that one. So neither of these teams is going to let up no matter what the score is. 

Texas State is all about scoring under offensive mastermind G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats are averaging 37.6 points a game. The Over has cashed in four of their five games.

Arkansas State has a porous defense ranking 120th in total defense. The Red Wolves, though, have a big-time wide receiver in Corey Rucker. They can do their part to get this total Over against a pedestrian Texas State defense. 

James Madison was upset, 21-19, by UL Monroe in its last game as a 17-point road favorite. I believe the Dukes, though, are much more like the powerhouse they were during the previous two games when they scored 63 points on Ball State and 70 points against North Carolina.

Alonza Barnett is an outstanding dual threat QB. Coastal Carolina is a sloppy tackling team that ranks 116th in rum defense and 98th in scoring defense and total defense. This was against weak competition, too.  

The Dukes are going to get their points. The key is can Coastal Carolina do its share of scoring? I believe the Chanticleers can. James Madison has faced four weak offenses in its five games. North Carolina put up 50 points against the Dukes.

Coastal Carolina has put up at least 40 points in three of its five games. The Chanticleers just put up 45 points against a respectable Old Dominion defense last week.

Eastern Michigan plays at a slow pace and ranks 103rd in yardage. The Eagles are far from explosive.

Don't expect any explosion from Kent State either. The Golden Flashes rank last in yards and second-to-last in points averaging 10.3.

Kent State is down to third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski because of injuries. Because of this the Golden Flashes are going to have to rely on an ineffective ground attack that averages a puny 1.67 yards on the ground. They won't be playing fast either.

There is little doubt about Toledo's offense. The Rockets have produced 49 points against Duquesne, 38 points vs. UMass and then 41 points and 454 yards against Mississippi State last week. Doing that against an SEC opponent on the road is impressive. 

Rockets QB Tucker Gleason has thrown for 662 yards and has a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. 

But some have doubts about Western Kentucky's quarterback situation after TJ Finley suffered a leg injury. He'll be out for this game. Sophomore Caden Veltkamp will replace him.

I'm not one of those who have doubts that the Hilltoppers will put up a lot of points with the quarterback change. They have a quarterback-friendly system that has produced an average of 40 points in their last two games against Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. A shutout loss to Alabama opening week skews Western Kentucky's overall offensive numbers.

Veltkamp has a career mark of throwing for 821 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. 

Toledo averaged 35 points last season and 33 points two years ago. The Rockets are averaging 43.5 points in two games this season. They have a balanced attack. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. So the Rockets are going to get their share of points. 

Mississippi State is averaging 42.5 points a game through two games. The Bulldogs have committed just one turnover. They are facing a Rockets defense that ranks 73rd in defensive total yards despite playing easy opponents, Duquesne and UMass. 

Blake Shapen is an underrated quarterback and the Bulldogs have surrounded him with good receiving targets. 

Another key is tempo. Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in terms of pace. 

North Carolina State needed to upgrade at quarterback. The Wolfpack certainly did that landing transfer Grayson McCall, who has more than 10,000 passing yards and 109 all-purpose touchdowns. The Wolfpack put up 38 points against Western Carolina in their opener last week. 

Tennessee has its own emerging star quarterback in Nico Iamaleava. He helped lead the Volunteers to a 35-0 whipping of Iowa in a bowl game last season and he was sharp in Tennessee's, 69-3, shellacking of Tennessee-Chattanooga last week with three TD passes and 314 yards passing before sitting out. The Volunteers played at an exceptionally fast tempo in that game. 

So look for a shootout here with two outstanding passing attacks, playing at an up-tempo pace. 

Michigan State's offense is terrible. The Spartans are averaging 11.9 points in their last 11 games. New QB Aidan Chiles wasn't impressive, nor was the Spartans' offense, in last week's opening win, 16-10, at home against Florida Atlantic. The Spartans couldn't reach 300 yards against Florida Atlantic.

Maryland was much more impressive in a 50-7 opening-week victory against overmatched Connecticut. The Terrapins, though, are breaking in new QB Billy Edwards Jr. after four years of having Taulia Tagovailoa behind center. Edwards is going to have it much rougher stepping up against Michigan State's defense, which is way ahead of its offense.

I see Maryland turning in a good defensive performance, too, as the Terrapins have improved the past couple of years defensively and are facing an extremely weak offense.

SMU ranked eighth in scoring and 16th in total offense last year. After a slow three quarters in their opener against Nevada, the Mustangs' offense has gotten back on track producing 76 points in their last five quarters.

The Mustangs have a star quarterback in Preston Stone and plenty of speedy skill position weapons for Stone to utilize. BYU's defense was way down last season. The Cougars gave up an average of 37.5 points in six road games last season. I don't see the Cougars holding SMU below 35 points.

The key question then becomes how much can BYU score to push this total Over?

I believe the Cougars' offense can produce their share of points and not just because SMU is rebuilding its defensive line and secondary.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff displayed a big arm in passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 victory against Southern Illinois last week.

Texas A&M has made seven quarterback changes during the past two seasons. The Aggies still have an unsettled offensive line and are not scary at the skill position spots.

Notre Dame's defense should be able to handle the Aggies. The Irish ranked in the top 10 defensively in many important categories, including fifth in yards allowed and seventh in scoring defense.

Defense is the strength of Texas A&M especially in the defensive line where Purdue transfer Nic Scourton comes on board after leading the Big Ten in sacks last year. Notre Dame lacks experience in the offensive line where three starters departed, including star tackle Joe Alt.

The Irish are breaking in skill position players, too, including QB Riley Leonard. Texas A&M's first year head coach Mike Elko is familiar with Leonard since he coached him at Duke last year.

Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards.

And that was with their regular QB, Cam Fancher. Now Marshall won't have Fancher, who entered the transfer portal. Next man up for Marshall is Cole Pennington. He's a redshirt freshman and the son of Chad Pennington, the former Jets quarterback. Pennington saw action in three games. He threw six interceptions and had no TD passes.

UTSA's offense was decent, but not as good as some expected. The Roadrunners could manage only 16 points against Tulane in their last game.

I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference.

The Bruins rank 15th in scoring defense giving up 18.1 points. They also ranked third in the nation in run defense and 11th in total defense.

Boise State QB Taylen Green was named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Green transferred to Arkansas following the end of the regular season. So true freshman CJ Tiller will start against the Bruins. Tiller has yet to throw his first college pass. The Broncos also lose Green's rushing threat. He was second on the team in rushing touchdowns with nine. Tiller faces a UCLA pass rush that had the sixth-most sacks in the country with 41.

The Broncos peaked defensively down the stretch holding their last four foes - New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force and UNLV - to an average of 15.7 points.

UCLA has quarterback problems. The Bruins' highly-touted freshman QB, Dante Moore, entered the transfer portal. That leaves Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee. Both are banged-up and neither has been overly effective. The Bruins could manage just a combined 24 points against California, Arizona and Arizona State during three of the last four games.

The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good.

Louisville ranks 19th in total defense. The Cardinals catch a major break with Florida State QB Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles could only manage 24 points against Florida last week minus Travis. The Gators had surrendered an average of 41.2 points during their last five games before holding Florida State to 24 points.

Backup Seminoles QB Tate Rodemaker completed fewer than half of his passes for only 134 yards and no touchdowns against the Gators. FSU stud wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are far less effective without Travis throwing to them. Florida State is more run-oriented now with Rodemaker under center. Louisville has the 12th stingiest run defense in the nation.  

Florida State has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Seminoles have faced better quarterbacks than Louisville's Jack Plummer.

Note, too, that the game is being played in Charlotte where the weather forecast is for an 80 percent chance of rain. That should ensure more running plays.

There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon's defense has picked up the pace, too, holding Arizona State to 13 points and Oregon State to seven points during its last two games. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to an average of 14.4 points. These were quality opponents, too - Utah, California, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State.

Washington has looked better, too, defensively. The Huskies are giving up an average of 23 points in their last three games facing Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. 

Maryland is averaging 20 points during its past half dozen games. Rutgers ranks 11th in the nation in fewest yards allowed. The Scarlet Knights give up 19.1 points a game.

Think defense here - typical of the Big Ten - because I'm not overly fond of Rutgers quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, either. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game all season. Rutgers is averaging 7.3 points in its last three games. The Scarlet Knights also play extremely slow, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo. 

Maryland shut out Rutgers in last season's game. 

Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game.

Minnesota is a ground-oriented team. The Gophers rank 125th passing. So they'll be staying on the ground.

The key to making this Under work is how many points will Ohio State produce?

The Gophers have a slightly above average defense. Ohio State has Michigan in its game of the year up next. So the Buckeyes won't want to show much. Just dominate early and get out. That was exactly what they did against Michigan State last week.

Ohio State went up 35-3 against the Spartans. The Buckeyes then took their foot off the gas pedal winning, 38-3.

Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. 

North Carolina State has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Wolfpack have held their last three opponents - Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson - to a combined average of 9.6 points. The Wolfpack rank 20th in fewest yards allowed per game and are fourth in the nation in takeaways. 

Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in fewest yards allowed. The Hokies held Syracuse to 10 points and Wake Forest to 13 points during two of their past four games. North Carolina State is averaging 18.2 points in its last four games. 

Both teams rate among the top-10 in slowest tempo during their last three games.  

There hasn't been more than 41 combined points scored during North Carolina State's last four games. The average combined score during their Wolfpack's last four games is 31.5 points. Virginia Tech has been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season.

This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary.

California should have success passing, too. Washington State ranks 118th in pass defense and 88th in run defense. That should mean a strong game for Jaydn Ott, one of the best running backs in the country.

These teams play at a fast pace, too.

This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. 

Nevada's offensive line has allowed 74 tackles for a loss, fourth-highest in the country. Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West Conference in tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

The Aggies are just an average rushing team, but they rank 26th in passing yards. Nevada's defense has shown improvement holding their last three opponents to an average of 17 points. Utah State is turnover prone. The Aggies have thrown 13 interceptions. Only four teams have been picked off more times. 

This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense.

The Bruins could have the best pass rush of any team, too, and Colorado has yielded 35 sacks. Laiatu Latu may be the premier pass rusher in the nation. He has 17 career sacks for the Bruins in 1 1/2 seasons. 

The total is so high because Colorado averages 34.4 points and has a terrible defense. That defense, though, has shown improvement versus the run and is better in the secondary when Travis Hunter plays. He's as good on defense as he is on offense, which is saying a lot.  

UCLA, though, isn't going to take a lot of chances with its quarterbacks. Freshman Dante Moore has been limited in practice due to an injury and Ethan Garbers isn't a gunslinger. Garbers is expected to get the start, which likely means a more conservative game plan from Chip Kelly. 

There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up.

It's the wrong move.

Two bad offenses against two mediocre defenses spell Under here especially given the style of play Charlotte employs.

The 49ers are averaging 8.2 points in their last four games. They are the second-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 14.6 points per game on the season. Their offense has produced 11 TD's in seven games.

Charlotte's QB's have a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's why the 49ers run the ball more than 60 percent of the time even though they rank 87th in rushing. They play slow, too, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo.

Florida Atlantic's defense is nothing special. But neither have been the other defenses the 49ers have struggled against.

The 49ers are better on defense. Florida Atlantic is on its second QB after losing Casey Thompson to injury. Daniel Richardson has thrown more interceptions than TD passes. The Owls rank 103rd in rushing yards and 95th in total yards.

If you discount a 56-point explosion against South Florida and its bottom-10 defense, the Owls would be averaging 14.2 points in their last five games.

Kansas State has a top-25 offense in yards and scoring, averaging 35.8 points. Texas Tech averages 34.2 points and has a stud running back, Tahj Brooks. He's the fifth-leading rusher in the nation.

But what makes going Over this total enticing are the weak pass defenses. Kansas State ranks 107th in pass defense. The Wildcats have a cluster injury problem in their secondary, too.

Texas Tech QB Behren Morton is getting better each week since replacing injured Tyler Shough. He had his highest ranked game this past week.

The Red Raiders rank 95th in pass defense. Kansas State senior QB Will Howard, well praised before the season, is due to perform better. This is his opportunity.

Tulane and Memphis certainly are capable of big-scoring games. But I don't see it happening in this matchup.

The Green Wave's Michael Pratt is one of the better QB's in the country. But Tulane has been plagued by turnovers and poor red zone production. Memphis has one of the better defenses in the American Athletic Conference.

So does Tulane. The Green Wave have held their past three opponents to an average of 11 points. One of these foes was Trent Dilfer's UAB, which just scored 56 points against South Florida last Saturday.

The Green Wave rank 10th in run defense, which is bad news for Memphis running back Blake Watson. The Tigers do lead the AAC in time of possession. So I believe they will stay committed to a ground attack in order to keep the ball away from Pratt. Plus Memphis QB Seth Henigan has been hurt by interceptions. He's been picked off five times on 175 throws.

South Florida's Byrun Brown is one of the nation's more underrated dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulls are really starting to click under new coach Alex Golesh with Brown operating the offense at the fifth-fastest pace in the country.

The Bulls scored 42 points against Rice and 44 versus Navy in their last two games. UAB plays no defense under its new coach, former NFL QB Trent Dilfer. The Blazers are giving up an average of 43.5 points in their last four games. They rank 120th in total defense. This is a defense worse than what South Florida has encountered the past two weeks when it averaged 43 points.

Dilfer, though, has made the Blazers a downfield passing threat. The Blazers have the nation's No. 22 passing offense. Pass defense is South Florida's weakness. The Bulls rank 122nd in pass defense. They have only three takeaways.

Like South Florida, UAB plays at an extremely fast tempo. So don't be deterred going Over such a high total.

I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives.

First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th.

I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click.

Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State.

Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin.

I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here.

Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards.

Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo.

Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games.

Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator.

I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times.

Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing.

I see it differently.

I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good.

Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame.

I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year.

Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week.

The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame.

Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace.

Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast.

At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner.

But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range.

The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense.

Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing.

Wisconsin is more balanced on offense, but weaker on defense. Purdue is weak defensively. So look for a higher total than what the oddsmaker has projected.

The Boilermakers are surrendering 30.3 points a game and rank 108th in total defense.

SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. One thing that hasn't changed about the Badgers is having a star running back. That's Braelon Allen. But he's not even the Badgers' leading rusher. Chez Mellusi is. He and Allen are averaging a combined 174 yards rushing a game. They each have four TD's.

Purdue hasn't faced this good of an offense having played Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse.

The Boilermakers aren't going to get many stops. But the Badgers are going to encounter their own defense struggles trying to contain QB Hudson Card as their secondary is way down from past seasons. Wisconsin ranks 115th in pass defense.

Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin threw for 383 yards against Wisconsin last week. Card is better than Brin.

Both teams play at a faster than average tempo, too.

I'm expecting a quarterback shootout between Chevan Cordeiro, perhaps the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference, and Toledo stud DeQuan Finn. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have good receiving weapons particularly Finn, who has an excellent trio of Jerijuan Newton, CC Ezirim and Junior Vandeross.

San Jose State has played two Division I schools - Pac-12 foes USC and Oregon State. The Spartans couldn't stop either team on the ground or through the air. The result was giving up 56 points to USC and 42 to the Beavers.

Toledo just put up 71 points on Texas Southern in its last game. The Rockets' other game was a 30-28 road loss to Illinois.

Never mind the quarterbacks. It's the strong rushing attacks, California's weak defense and fast pace from both teams that will get this game to go Over.

Auburn rushed for 289 yards and six TD's in a 59-14 win against UMass last week. Sure UMass isn't very good. But the Tigers looked great running the ball behind an upgraded offensive line. Cal has a weak defensive line, not good at stopping the run nor pressuring the quarterback.

The Golden Bears rushed for 357 and six TD's in their 58-21 opening week road victory against North Texas. That total went Over by 26 points. Jaydn Ott gives Cal one of the best running backs on the West Coast.

Cal's high-scoring wasn't a fluke. The Bears brought in Jake Spavital to be their new offensive coordinator. His style is to play fast. Auburn gave up five yards per rush attempt to UMASS, which was its average last season. So Cal and Ott should find success on the ground again.

The Tigers play up-tempo, too, under their first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who has an outstanding reputation for building high-octane offenses.

Neither team was sharp in their openers last week.

Arizona State managed only three points during the second half in its 24-21 win against FCS foe Southern Utah. The Sun Devils were 34 1/2-point favorites.

The Sun Devils are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Jaden Rashada. His task and learning curve are going to be far more difficult this week. ASU's offensive line is a weakness after losing key linemen in the transfer portal and a projected starter going down with an injury. Oklahoma State has a big and physical defensive front seven. The Cowboys had five sacks in their opener.

The Cowboys were not impressive, either, in their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas last week. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is using a three-player committee at quarterback. That's not a good sign.

The teams met at Oklahoma City last year and the Cowboys won, 34-17. Arizona State is better on defense this season.

I'm not impressed with either team's quarterback situation. I do respect both team's defenses, though. Tempo is important, too. Each team plays slow. So I find this total too high.

Middle Tennessee State has four starters back on a defense that ranked fourth-best in the red zone. Missouri still hasn't fully settled on a quarterback between Brady Cook and Sam Horn. They have one of the weakest quarterback situations in the SEC.

Missouri has a strong defensive front. I don't see the Blue Raiders, which lost a lot of offense from last year, being able to run successfully on the Tigers, nor is QB Nicholas Vattiato going to hurt them through the air.

The Blue Raiders were held to just seven points and 3.5 yards per play by Alabama in their opener. Now they face another tough SEC defense.

They don't get the publicity of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but Oregon State's D.J. Uiagalelei and San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro are two of the better QB's in the country.

Cordeiro could be the best QB in the Mountain West. Uiagalelei couldn't live up to his potential at Clemson as the replacement for Trevor Lawrence, but figures to get coached up at Oregon State under head coach Jonathan Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren.

Uiagalelei can rely upon an excellent offensive line and two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. San Jose State is down on defense from last season. The Spartans surrendered 56 points to USC last week.

San Jose State covered against the Trojans, though, by scoring 28 points. The Spartans averaged six yards per play. Cordeiro threw for three TD's. Just as important, the Spartans played at a fast pace.

Oregon State, like San Jose State, looks to be down defensively from last year.

The marketplace has reacted to the new starting quarterbacks at California and North Texas by betting this total down. The Over/Under is low enough where there's value on the Over now.

What's being overlooked here is tempo. It's going to be quicker than perceived with Jake Spavital brought in by Cal coach Justin Wilcox to be the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. Spavital has a well-earned reputation of developing QB's and speeding up a team's attack. This is good news for Sam Jackson V, a redshirt sophomore and TCU transfer who will be under center for the Golden Bears. He faces a North Texas defense that gave up 31.5 points a game and ranked 124th in total defense last season.

North Texas is going with dual threat Stone Earle as its starting QB. Reports out of spring camp was Earle had improved his passing accuracy. The Mean Green should play faster, too, with Eric Morris as their new head coach. Cal ranked 123rd in pass defense last year.

Wisconsin is going to have more of a balanced attack with new coach Luke Fickell bringing former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo on board. But the Badgers certainly are not going to lose their identity of being run-oriented with a strong defensive unit.

There's no reason for the Badgers to tip anything off about their offense against this non-conference opponent being nearly a 30-point favorite. 
The Badgers allowed 20.2 points and 303.5 yards per game, 27th-best in the nation, last season. Fickell is a defensive-minded coach. The Badgers return eight defensive starters. 

So I don't see Buffalo producing many points with their mediocre offense. But can the Bulls slow down Wisconsin? 

I believe they can. Senior linebacker Shaun Dolac led the nation with 97 solo tackles last season while safety Marcus Fuqua tied for the most interceptions with seven. 

I'm not expecting 76 points to be scored like there were in Florida International's, 42-34 double overtime, home victory against Louisiana Tech last year.

But I do expect these teams to combine for more than 60 points.

Part of this is believing Florida International QB Grayson James has improved. James goes against a Louisiana Tech defense that was one of the worst in the country in 2022 ranking 128th in scoring defense and 127th in total defense. James should have time to pass and can rely on plenty of yards on the ground. The Bulldogs couldn't stop the run - ranking 130th - and didn't generate a pass rush.

Louisiana Tech certainly isn't favored because of its defense. The Bulldogs have a fast-tempo, high-powered offense operated by Boise State transfer QB Hank Bachmeier. He was hurt last year, but was very good two seasons ago.

The Bulldogs averaged 29 points last season in Sonny Cumbie's first season as head coach. They should improve on that number in Year 2 of Cumbie's ''Air Raid'' offense, especially going against such a weak defense here at home.

The total is high in this one - but not high enough.

Tulane was the 21st-highest scoring team in the country averaging 35.2 points a game. That average goes up to 38.8 during its last seven games. USC has trouble against mobile quarterbacks and Tulane's Michael Pratt is a dual threat.

Pratt accounted for 35 touchdowns through the air and on the ground rushing for 395 yards and passing for 2,775 yards.

Lincoln Riley turned USC around. The Trojans did this on offense averaging 41.1 points per game, third-best in the country. If you discount their Pac-12 title game against Utah - the one team the Trojans had trouble against - the Trojans averaged 44.8 points during their last six games.

Caleb Williams may be the best QB in the nation. He threw for 4,075 yards, 37 TD's with just four interceptions while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. I don't see Tulane's defense stopping USC's offense, which can offset several opt-outs with its depth.

The Over has cashed in each of USC's last seven games.

Georgia's defense has gotten a lot of credit and publicity during the past two seasons. But the Bulldogs' offense isn't too shabby either. They ranked seventh in total offense and 11th in scoring at 39.2 points a game. Stetson Bennett has improved as a passer. The Bulldogs were especially impressive in the red zone scoring 97 percent of the time during 71 trips inside the 20. It's alarming to see how many big plays Ohio State gave up to Michigan in its 45-23 loss during its last game.

That game went Over. No surprise as the Buckeyes have gone Over in nine of their last 10 games. Georgia didn't face too many really strong passing attacks. Ohio State is the best the Bulldogs have seen.

C.J. Stroud had the highest passer efficiency rating in the country. He may have the best wide receiver in the country, too, in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes had the second-highest yards per play in the nation. The Bulldogs surrendered 30 points and 505 passing yards to LSU in their last game, the SEC title game.

I'm expecting a loose game between strong offenses that should result in this total going Over. 

Kansas State is thrilled to be in the Sugar Bowl. The Wildcats got their offense in full gear averaging 38.6 points during their last six games to win the Big 12 championship. They feature one of the top all-purpose backs in the nation in Deuce Vaughn. 

Alabama is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 40.8 points led by Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young. The Tide, though, are disappointed they didn't make the College Football Playoffs. Unlike Kansas State, they had a number of opt-outs. But Alabama has a deep roster. 

This is the Tide's chance to get those offensive players big-time experience, so I'm expecting them to play aggressive. That's been their style as seven of their last nine bowl games have gone Over. 

Both defenses are not getting enough respect here especially with each minus its starting quarterback. 

Clemson surrenders just 20.1 points a game. The Tigers ranked 10th in run defense. Georgia might be the best defensive team in the country. But Clemson was close to the Bulldogs giving up 4.97 yards per play compared to Georgia's 4.88. 

The Tigers get to face a Tennessee squad that has lost much of its feared passing attack. The Volunteers lost their stud QB Hendon Hooker to a season-ending injury two games ago. The Vols also will be without their top wide receiver, Jalin Hyatt, and third-best wideout, Cedric Tillman. Both opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Joe Milton replaces Hooker - and it's a monster drop-off. 

Tennessee gave up 27 points or fewer in nine games. The Vols held opponents to 23.5 points on the season while ranking 18th in run defense. 
Clemson won't have its starting QB, DJ Uiagalelei, either. He's entered the transfer portal. 

Because of using largely untested backup quarterbacks, both teams will emphasize the run more, which will eat clock. Each team has strong run defenses, too. 

This total has been bet up - too far up in my view.

Mississippi is a running team with a respectable defense that gives up 24.2 points a game. The Rebels enter this matchup having lost three in a row. They are averaging just 24.8 points in their last five games. 

Mississippi played in the Sugar Bowl last year and lost 21-7 to Baylor. It was the fifth straight bowl game the Rebels went Under the total. 

Texas Tech's season offensive numbers are skewed because of three overtime games. The Red Raiders are capable of playing stout defense. They held Iowa State and West Virginia to 10 points each. 

The Under has cashed in eight of the Red Raiders' last 11 non-conference games. 

San Diego State gives up just 20.2 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. The Aztecs only average 21.3 points a game and even that low total is skewed by scoring 38 points against Idaho State and 43 versus San Jose State. That inflated their season total.

The Aztecs scored 23 points or less in eight of their other nine games against FBS competition. The Under is 12-5-1 the last 18 times the Aztecs have met an above .500 foe.

Middle Tennessee State came on defensively holding three of its last five opponents to 21 points or less.

Don't be fooled by Toledo playing in the high-scoring Mid-American Conference. Also don't be fooled by this game being played in South Florida.

Toledo easily is the best defensive team in the MAC. They rank 24th in defensive total yards in the country and just held Ohio to seven points in the MAC title game, which was 25 points below the Bobcats' season average.

Liberty hasn't been the same since it lost its coach, Huge Freeze, to Auburn. The Flames averaged just 22.4 points in their last four games.

Until that happened, Liberty was a strong defensive team. The Flames should regroup for this bowl game. They have a superstar defensive lineman in Durrell Johnson, who has eight sacks and 22 1/2 tackles for losses.

The weather is a plus, too, for the Under with an 80 percent chance of rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

Defending national champion Georgia had a defense for the ages last season. Their defense isn't too shabby this season either.

The Bulldogs give up the fewest points in the country at 11.3. No team has scored more than 22 points in a game against the Bulldogs. Georgia also ranks No. 1 against the run and fourth in total defense.

LSU's defense is very respectful. The Tigers rank 33rd in total defense and scoring defense.

The Tigers held seven of their opponents to 20 points or less.

LSU held Arkansas to 13 points, which is 17.7 points under its average. The Tigers gave up just 10 points to Alabama-Birmingham, which was 20.6 points under the Blazers' average. LSU held Mississippi to 20 points, which was 14.2 points below its average. Mississippi State could manage just 16 points versus the Tigers, which was 22 points under its average. Florida State scored 24 points against the Tigers. That was 12.2 points under the Seminoles' average. 

Iowa State has gone Under in its last seven Big 12 Conference games. It's easy to see why. The Cyclones have the top defense in the league, but the worst offense. 

The Cyclones aren't going bowling for the first time since 2016. So playing unbeaten fourth-ranked TCU is their bowl game. Look for Iowa State to play its usual tough defensive, field-position type of game especially being on the road. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Cyclones' last 30 road contests.

TCU already has its ticket punched for the Big 12 title game next week. The Horned Frogs don't want to show too much in this game so as not to tip their hand. They would be satisfied with a victory, not running up a huge score. 

The buy sign is on these two offenses.

Spencer Rattler finally lived up to his big reputation last week for South Carolina. The Oklahoma transfer passed for 438 yards and six touchdowns in the Gamecocks' 63-38 win against Tennessee.

The Over has cashed in 11 of South Carolina's last 14 road games.

Clemson's attack is in gear, too. The Tigers have produced a combined 71 points in their last two games crushing Miami and Louisville.

You can't go wrong taking the Under when Marshall is involved. The Thundering Herd has gone Under in nine of its 11 games. Marshall has a top-10 defense, a weak passing attack and runs the ball a lot. That's a winning Under combination.

Georgia State can't pass either. The Panthers rank 107th in passing. Marshall is hardly any better, rating 104th in passing. 

Marshall is holding foes to 15.5 points a game. Georgia State's defense isn't very good, but it is opportunistic coming up with 13 takeaways, which ranks 15th in the nation. 

The oddsmaker has opened this total too high. There haven't been more than 49 points scored in any of Marshall's past eight games. This one shouldn't be any different.

Note, too, that the early weather forecast is for a 50 percent chance of rain with 10-to-15 mph winds. 

No team has played more Unders this season than Marshall. The Thundering Herd have gone Under in eight of their nine games, including the last six.

Marshall gives up 15.6 points, ranks No. 3 in run defense and ninth in total defense. The Thundering Herd, though, has a limited passing attack ranking 110th. So they run the ball a lot, which eats clock.

Appalachian State also has a good defense ranking 27th in fewest yards allowed per game and are run-oriented on offense. The Under has cashed in four of the Mountaineers' last five games.

Houston scored 63 points against SMU last week - and still lost by 14. There's only one way to look at Houston games and it's certainly not Under. The Over has cashed in eight of the Cougars' nine games this season. 

The Cougars average 36.8 points and give up an average of 36.2 points. 

Temple isn't going to be able to slow down Clayton Tune and the rest of Houston's high-caliber attack. The Owls should be able to kick in their fair share of points. Their offense came alive in a 54-28 victory against South Florida last week. Edward Saydee rushed for 265 yards and QB E.J. Warner passed for 344 yards for Temple. 

It's not a fluke that Kentucky has gone Under in eight of its nine games this season. The Wildcats are run-oriented, go at the slowest pace of any team in the country and have a tremendous defense that ranks 11th in fewest yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense holding opponents to 19.6 points a game.

Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann is out with a lower body injury. He's the Commodores' best passing quarterback. Vanderbilt is averaging only 12.5 points during its past five games.

The Commodores do not have a good defense. However, their best feature is stopping the run. Kentucky figures to stay on the ground a lot especially given the projected weather conditions, which are calling for wind in the 15-22 mph range.

Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under.

Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game. 
Neither team has a strong offense. Kentucky ranks 98th in scoring at 23.9 points. Missouri is 97th in scoring at 23.9 points per game. Each team plays at a very slow pace. The run-oriented Wildcats, in fact, have the slowest tempo in the country. 

The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too. 

There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain.

Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast. 

That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season. 

Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing. 

This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic. 

The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups. 

Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series. 

This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent. 

The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas. 

Both from a matchup perspective and trend/angles standpoint the Under seems the right play given this high of a total.

Coastal Carolina has gone Under in six of its last seven road games, while the Under has won in seven of Marshall's last eight home games.

Marshall ranks in the top-11 in defensive scoring, fewest yards allowed and run defense. Coastal Carolina hasn't seen a defense this good all season.

The Chanticleers are not a good defensive team, but they are opportunistic ranking 31st in takeaways. They are facing a feeble Marshall offense that ranks 82nd in scoring averaging 26.6 points and is 109th in passing yards.

The tempo is going to be slow, too, which is a huge plus for the Under.

Minnesota is run-oriented with a weak passing game. Rutgers ranks sixth in the nation in run defense and eighth in total defense. The Scarlet Knights permit just 88 yards rushing per game and 3.0 per rush attempt. The Gophers may not even have their starting QB, Tanner Morgan. He's questionable with a concussion.

The Gophers are strong defensively giving up the 10th-fewest points in the country at 16.4. Rutgers has cleared the 17-point barrier only once in its last five games. The Scarlet Knights rank 113th in yards per game.

Not surprisingly neither team plays at a fast tempo. In fact, they are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. So the clock will keep moving.

The oddsmaker still must think Randy Moss is playing for Marshall. The Thundering Herd aren't good offensively. They're averaging 10 points during their last two Sun Belt Conference games. That was against Troy and Louisiana Lafayette, with one touchdown against Lafayette coming in garbage time. 

Marshall is heavily run-oriented. James Madison happens to have the top run defense in the nation. 

The oddsmaker might have been influenced by James Madison losing, 45-38, to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. Marshall is a much better defensive team and is nearly as up-tempo as Georgia Southern. 

The Thundering Herd rank 17th in scoring defense giving up 17.3 points a game. They are 13th in total defense holding foes to 290.3 yards per game. The Dukes do not play at a fast tempo especially when in the lead, which should be the case since they are around two-touchdown favorites. 

(Note: The total has come down since I first released the play. This has hurt the line value, but the handicap still holds as I don't see these teams reaching 50 points.)

Northern Illinois has gone Over in six of its seven games this season. The Huskies' offense has taken off averaging 36.3 points in their last three games. Rocky Lombardi returned last week for the Huskies after being out. That's just another plus because he's one of the best QB's in the MAC.

He faces an Ohio defense that ranks second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed per play. The Bobcats surrender an average of 36.9 points a game. 

This isn't just going to be one-way scoring. Ohio will put up a lot of points on Northern Illinois behind Kurtis Rourke, who could be the top QB in the MAC. He's completed 70 percent of his throws and has accounted for 17 TD's in seven games. The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in passing yards. 

The Huskies rank 116th in scoring defense allowing 34.3 points and also rank 116th in pass defense. They are not going to be able to slow down Rourke. 

The Over has cashed in each of Ohio's last five home games. 

There have been some wild games in the American Athletic Conference. Houston and Navy both were involved in two of them last week. The Cougars came back from a 26-7 fourth quarter deficit to nip Memphis, 33-32, while Navy scored 20 fourth-quarter points while gaining 510 yards in a 40-34 loss to SMU.

The Cougars are within one point of having every one of their games go Over. They average 31.3 points and give up 33.7 points. All six of Houston's opponents have scored a minimum of 27 points against the Cougars.

Houston QB Clayton Tune gets to face a Navy pass defense that ranks 111th.

The Midshipmen have scored a combined 87 points in their last two games against Tulsa and SMU. They are the fifth-best rushing team in the nation.

Yet the marketplace has been on the Under. The total has been knocked down enough where it has now become an excellent value play on the Over.

A decent offense and bad defense. That's Rice and its formula for going Over in 14 of its last 17 games, including all five this season.

I see another Over in the Owls' matchup against Florida Atlantic.

Both teams should be fresh with a few tricks up their sleeves having each enjoyed a bye last week. 

Rice gives up 31 points a game. The Owls are averaging 35 points, however, during their last four games. 

Florida Atlantic also averages 31 points per game. Florida Atlantic has surrendered at least 40 points against three of its last four Division I opponents. Florida Atlantic is off a bad 45-28 loss to North Texas State. 

I was surprised to see this total open this high. Think defense rather than offense in this matchup. 

South Carolina is giving up an average of 46 points a game during its two SEC matchups, which were against Georgia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks have played easy opponents during their past two games. Now they go back into SEC competition. 

Chris Rodriguez is an elite running back for Kentucky. He's back in the lineup and should do well against a South Carolina run defense that ranks 106th. Kentucky's star QB Will Levis is fine, too, after hurting his hand last week. South Carolina lacks the necessary pass rush to both Levis. 

The Gamecocks are averaging 35.6 points per game. They have a pro prospect at QB in Spencer Rattler. He leads a balanced attack. South Carolina has scored 56 and 50 points, respectively, during its last two games going against Charlotte and South Carolina State. Kentucky is much better on defense than those two teams.

However, the Wildcats only have four takeaways. So I see South Carolina holding up its end in getting this total Over. 

James Madison has been most impressive in its transition from FCS to FBS this season going 4-0 SU and ATS. The Dukes are averaging 44.8 points, which ranks eighth in the nation.

Arkansas State can score, too, especially at home scoring 58 and 45 points, respectively, this season. I see a shootout here similar to what the Red Wolves were involved in three weeks ago when they lost, 44-32, to Memphis.

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks. Todd Centeio is a dual threat for James Madison. He's accounted for 13 TD's with 913 yards passing and another 252 yards rushing. Arkansas State QB James Blackman leads an attack that averages 34.6 points.

Air Force leads the nation in rushing averaging 379 yards. Utah State can't stop the run. The Aggies allow 5.3 yards per run, which ranks 117th. They are giving up 36.4 points per game. 

Utah State's new QB, Cooper Legas, made his first start last week against BYU. He threw a pair of TD passes and the Aggies scored 26 points.

Air Force has played against weak passing teams. The Aggies play up-tempo. This combination should produce points for Utah State. 

This is a big revenge spot for Florida after it lost to Missouri, 24-23, on the road last year. That was the fifth straight time in this series the Under covered.

I see another Under in this matchup.

Missouri's defense was impressive in holding Georgia to 26 points last week. The Tigers could be looking to stay on the ground more knowing they may be without their top wide receiver, Dominic Lovett.

Florida has gone Under in seven of its last 10 home games. The Gators' defensive statistics are skewed because they've played Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee.

Both teams should enjoy great success on the ground given the quality of their ground attacks and vulnerability of the opponent's rush defense. 

Georgia State plays fast. The Panthers have the shortest time of possession of any team in the country. The Panthers rank 37th in rushing. Army ranks 114th in run defense. The Over has cashed in eight of Georgia State's last 11 non-conference games. 

The Panthers are giving up 38.3 points pre game. They rank 119th in total defense. Army is the No. 3 rushing team in the country. 

Just two weeks ago, Georgia State surrendered 42 points to Charlotte. The 49ers average 19.5 points in their four other games. That certainly bodes well for Army. 

This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified. 

Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total. 

TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense. 

The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season. 

The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games. 

The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high.

Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition.

Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range.

The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games.

This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game. 

Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over.

North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that.

The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game.