I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games.

I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders.

Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense.

Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown.

The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener.

Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line.

Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9.

This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog.

That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove.

Super Bowl Props

Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage

Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup.

It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value.

The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game.

Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs.

Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games.

DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: 

DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns.

I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes. 

It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example.

Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles.

This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain.

I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate.

Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts.

The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants.

Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5.

The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory.

Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015.

Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself.

Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions.

Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

Injuries have decimated the 49ers this season. They are 1-6 in their last seven games and have little motivation being eliminated from the playoffs.

Dan Campbell's style is for his team to go all out. The Lions haven't forgotten about a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season.

Detroit is 7-0 on the road and have a far better offense than the 49ers, who are down to their third-string running back, without Brandon Aiyuk and are scrambling to put together a makeshift offensive line with multiple injuries.

The Lions have multiple defensive injuries, but possess excellent depth in their defensive line and maybe the best safety tandem in the league.

The Texans made the playoffs last season. They likely will make the playoffs again because they have a two-game lead in the weak AFC South Division.

But Houston has not shown the necessary improvement to take the next step, which is beating an elite foe such as the Ravens. The Texans have played three above .500 teams during their last 10 games. They lost each of those games to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers.

Baltimore defeated the Texans, 25-9, in the opening game last year and then whipped the Texans, 34-10, in the playoffs. Both of those games were at home for the Ravens. That doesn't matter. The Ravens remain what I consider to be two tiers above Houston. So, yes, I expect them to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Playing on Christmas Day is a plus, too, for the Ravens.

The Wednesday game means the Texans probably aren't going to have two starting offensive linemen and will be missing both of their starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, because of injuries.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season with a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and close to 800 yards rushing. The Texans have never beaten Jackson in four attempts. Houston's defensive strength is its pass rush. Jackson has the mobility to escape that.

The Ravens are going to get their points. I don't see C.J. Stroud keeping up. Stroud's numbers are down from his rookie season. He's minus his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out. Stroud may not be fully recovered mentally from watching his friend Dell suffer a career-threatening gruesome knee injury this past week.

Houston made a smart waiver claim getting Dioontae Johnson from the Ravens, who apparently were so receiver-rich they didn't even use Johnson. However, Johnson hasn't had enough acclimation time with Houston to make a dent in this matchup.

Prop Bet

Mark Andrews to score a touchdown and go Over his yardage total

After a slow start, Mark Andrews has returned to his star form. Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, including the past four games. During these last six games, Andrews has averaged 4.1 receptions a game and 43.6 yards. His hands are as reliable as ever.

But what makes Andrews especially intriguing in this game is Houston is down its starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That means the middle of the field should be there for the taking for Andrews. Lamar Jackson trusts him and I expect will be looking often for Andrews.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

The class difference between these two teams is not reflected in the point spread. The Eagles hold edges on the Commanders at every position, including quarterback now that Jalen Hurts is back on the same page with ace wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC with a franchise-record 10 consecutive victories. The Eagles have won all of these games by four or more points. 

The Commanders rank 25th in run defense. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing by 214 yards. 

The Eagles' defense has gotten much better as the team is now comfortable executing ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. 

Philadelphia has held its last six opponents to an average of 15.3 points a game. Jayden Daniels doesn't have the skill position weapons the Eagles have. His offensive line is much worse than Philadelphia's, too, and he's facing a much tougher defense. 

The price is cheap to get the Eagles.

Now that Matt Eberflus is gone, my vote for worst NFL head coach is Antonio Pierce of the Raiders.

Not that Pierce has much to work with since the Raiders give up the second-most points in the NFL, rank last in rushing, turn the ball over the third-highest amount and only have one star defensive player, Maxx Crosby.

Make that zero stars on defense as Crosby is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a mediocre team. But mediocre is enough to beat the Raiders by a touchdown especially considering the situation.

More than likely the Raiders are going to be forced to start third-string QB Desmond Ridder. The Falcons certainly know how to defend Ridder, who is mobile but inaccurate and highly-turnover prone. Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons last season before Atlanta finally gave up on him.

The Falcons' pass rush has picked up considerably during their last two games. Atlanta has recorded nine sacks during this span. If  Aidan O'Connell is somehow able to play on a bad knee - and he's doubtful - the Raiders would have more of a downfield threat but no mobility at quarterback.

The Raiders have no above average weapons for their quarterbacks except tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in nine of its last 10 games.

Kirk Cousins could lose his starting position if he doesn't play better for Atlanta. He has far more weapons than the Las Vegas quarterbacks do and is facing a Raiders defense that allows an average of 27.8 points per game - and that was with Crosby, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers.

The Raiders don't have much of a home field edge either with Las Vegas being a tourist destination and being in a dome with controlled settings, which is what the Falcons are used to.

Bryce Young and Carolina are much improved. Now the Panthers have reached the stage where they can lose close games. Carolina does not know how to win. So the Panthers should not be favored.

This is uncharted waters for the Panthers, who haven't been chalk since 2022. 

Dallas is down, its playoff hopes slim. But the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated yet. Mike McCarthy is fighting for his coaching life. 

The Cowboys will have motivation. They have the best skill position player on the field, CeeDee Lamb, and the top defensive player, Micah Parsons, who is back from injury and has 3 1/2 sacks in his last three games. Parsons could wreak havoc on a bad Carolina offensive line. 

Rico Dowdle has put together the first two 100-yard rushing games of his career the past two weeks. He'll be running against the worst run defense in the league. Carolina gives up 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.97 yards per carry. The Panthers, by contrast, are thin at running back with their No. 2, 3 and 4 running backs all hurt. 

Dallas has put up an average of 27 points per game during its past three games. 

The Panthers, for all of their improvement, still have lost eight of their last 10 games.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

There's too much of a defensive gap between these two teams for me to back the Rams. The timing isn't good either for LA.

San Francisco ranks third in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest yards per play. 

By comparison, the Rams rank in the bottom-nine in most major defensive categories, including scoring, total defense, pass defense, yards per play and run defense. 

The Rams had no answer for the Bills this past Sunday giving up 44 points and 445 yards. Yet they still won. But now the Rams have to travel on a short week. 

The prideful 49ers are in must-win mode at 6-7. They regained their confidence returning home last week and smashing the Bears, 38-13, after losing on the road to the Bills and Packers the previous two games.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 11-1. They are at the highest elite level, several notches above the Chargers. Given three to 3 1/2 points for home field advantage, why then is Kansas City barely more than a field goal home favorite against Los Angeles? 

Why indeed? 

The Chargers beat the Falcons on the road inside a dome last week despite only gaining 187 yards facing a team with the fewest sacks in the league. No way will the Chargers be able to get away with that against the Chiefs on the road.

The warm-weather Chargers are looking at temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 10-15 miles per hour range for this Sunday night game in one of the toughest road venues in football. 

The Chargers are without their only decent running back, versatile J.K. Dobbins, and aren't likely to have their only decent receiver either with Ladd McConkey dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Jim Harbaugh has turned Justin Herbert into more of a game manager than gunslinger and Herbert doesn't have the weapons to compete against Patrick Mahomes. 

Kansas City gives up the eighth-fewest points and yards per game. The Chiefs rank No. 3 in run defense. 

LA's strength is pass defense. The Chargers might have the best secondary in the league. However, the Chargers' run defense is merely average. They especially have trouble against opponents who employ a two tight end system like the Chiefs do. 

Kansas City should be able to run effectively against LA especially with Isiah Pacheco getting the rust off like he did last week. He and Kareem Hunt provide the Chiefs with a better than average 1-2 running punch. The Chiefs are back healthy at offensive tackle, too, with the return from injury of D.J. Humphries.
  
A strong ground game will allow Mahomes to pick his spots and lead to the Chiefs' seventh straight victory over the Chargers. 

I've been following and covering UNLV football for 40 years and I haven't seen a better coaching job than what Barry Odom has done with the Rebels this season. Huge kudos to him.

However, I don't see the Rebels staying within a field goal of Boise State. They couldn't do it when they hosted the Broncos losing, 29- 24. Boise State didn't play that well either and Ashton Jeanty was somewhat held in check.

Now the Broncos are home with motivation this being the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State buried the Rebels, 44- 20, in last year's Mountain West title game, which was played in Las Vegas.

The only team to beat Boise State this season is top-ranked Oregon, which defeated the Broncos by three points in Oregon. Boise State is unbeaten at home winning by an average margin of 25 points.

UNLV relies on a strong ground attack and opportunistic defense. Boise State, though, ranks 17th in run defense and has committed only eight turnovers, seventh-fewest in the nation.

If there's a time to step in against the Lions this is it. Detroit is getting a lot of deserved love riding a 10-game winning streak. Dan Campbell is everybody's coaching darling.

But with little fanfare, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games. They also happen to be 18-2 in the month of December under Matt LaFleur.

The major reason, though, why I like the Packers to spring the upset is multiple injuries to the Lions. Detroit isn't likely to have offensive left tackle Taylor Decker.

Jordan Love has a bevy of weapons. They can take advantage of a Detroit defense down its best pass rusher, two of its top three linebackers and also has additional injuries in the line and secondary.

  The Lions have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Green Bay's defense has been coming on, though, improving against the run and putting more pressure on the quarterback. The Packers are giving up fewer than 16 points a game during their last three games.

Minnesota is not nearly as good as its 9-2 record. The Vikings were fortunate to play the Jaguars, Titans and Bears in their last three games. The combined record of those teams is 9-24 yet Minnesota only beat Jacksonville by five points and needed overtime to subdue Chicago.

The Vikings are due for a loss - and it comes here. Getting points with the Cardinals is just a nice bonus.

Yes, Arizona laid an egg on the road against the Seahawks this past week. The Cardinals also had trouble playing in Green Bay. But this game is inside. That's a major plus for Kyler Murray and his bevy of weapons. Arizona had won four in a row, including defeating the Chargers and Dolphins, before losing to Seattle.

The Cardinals have surrendered just five touchdowns in their last five games. That's the best in the NFL during that span. Arizona also has 14 sacks in its past three games. The Vikings could be down to their third-string offensive left tackle with Christian Darrisaw out for the season and backup Cam Robinson questionable with a foot injury.

Minnesota has been on the road during the last three weeks. So the Vikings' home advantage is somewhat negated by the family/friends distraction factor, especially coming home during Thanksgiving week.

If the Chiefs are going to cover one big point spread this season it's this game.

The Raiders are as bad as their 2-9 record shows. Las Vegas is turning back to immobile Aidan C'Connell after losing Gardner Minshew for the season because of a broken collarbone suffered last week. O'Connell has been out the last four games because of a broken thumb on his passing hand. O'Connell has admitted that his thumb is not 100 percent.

O'Connell can not expect any help from a ground game that is the worst in the NFL. Because of this early Friday start, O'Connell only was able to go through one walkthrough practice. I don't see O'Connell, or the poorly-coached Raiders, being ready for this game.

The Chiefs aren't going to lack motivation for this special stand-alone NFL Friday game, especially after the Raiders upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day last season.

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson. 

Great job by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season. But I don't see the Steelers continuing their magic in this step-up matchup. 

Pittsburgh is riding a four-game win streak after nipping the Commanders by one point this past Sunday. The Steelers' previous three victories were against the Giants, Jets and Raiders, whose combined record is 7-22. 

Baltimore is in the argument for best team in the NFL. Certainly the Ravens are the most explosive. Lamar Jackson has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Thanks to Jackson, rushing leader Derrick Henry and a bevy of quality receivers, the Ravens are No. 1 in the NFL in points, yards and rushing yards. The Steelers just surrendered 27 points to the Commanders. The previous week they gave up 22 points to the punchless Giants. No way can they contain the Ravens.

Pittsburgh is reliant upon the run. Baltimore has the top run defense in the NFL. Russell Wilson is far from his prime. He can't keep up with Jackson. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in passing. 

The Ravens play well on the road, too, going 10-3 during their past 13 away contests. The Ravens defense is dropping way down in quarterback class facing Wilson after going against Joe Burrow. 

Both teams own losing records. But there's a difference. Houston is 3-1 in its last four games and has pulled upsets in its last two games beating Kansas State and Utah. Arizona has lost and failed to cover its past five games.

The Cougars have momentum and confidence. Arizona doesn't. Houston also has found the right quarterback.

Zeon Chriss has sparked the Cougars since replacing Donovan Smith halfway through a 30-19 victory against TCU four games ago. Chriss sets up the pass because he's such an effective runner. He's made the Cougars' offense much better than their season statistics look like.

Arizona surrenders nearly 170 yards on the ground, fourth-worst in the Big 12. The Wildcats have lost three key defenders due to injuries.

The Wildcats have a superstar wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, but their quarterback play and coaching have been a disappointment. Since the second week of the season, the Wildcats are averaging only 17.2 points a game. Houston surrenders the 23rd-fewest yards per game in the nation.

This is a Friday night game, but attendance at Arizona could be down for this football game because its basketball team has a marquee game against Wisconsin that starts about 75 minutes before kickoff.

All the credit in the world to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders for their surprising 7-3 record. But they aren't nearly as good as the Eagles are from top to bottom and face a brutal scheduling spot here.

The Eagles are back on track winning five in a row. Jalen Hurts has far better skill position talent than Daniels. While Daniels is looking like the Rookie of the Year, Hurts quietly has accounted for 16 touchdowns in his last five games. Philadelphia is averaging 31.7 points in its past four games.

Not only does Hurt have elite receiving targets, but Saquon Barkley should eat well, too, facing a Washington run defense that ranks fifth-from-the-bottom.

While the Eagles had an easy time against the Cowboys last week, the Commanders suffered a tough 28-27 home loss to the Steelers that could be a burst to their growing confidence and swagger.

It's always tough being the road team on Thursday night. The short week also might prevent running back Brian Robinson Jr. and cornerback Marshon Lattimore from playing after missing last week due to injuries.

Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan on the road by 24 points last season. I expect the Falcons to win by double-digits hosting Western Michigan this season. 

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities. I trust Bowling Green's defense far more than the Broncos' defense, though.

The Falcons have scored 27 or more points in six of their nine games. They have one of the MAC's most talented running backs in Terion Stewart.

Western Michigan gives up an average of 34.7 points a game and ranks 124th in the metric of defensive success rate allowed. 

Yes the 49ers are 4-4. No one doubts their talent, though, especially since they are going to be reinforced coming off their bye with Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and kicker Jake Moody all likely to return here. Deebo Samuel should be a go, too.

Let the record show that San Francisco is 16-2 following a Week 9 bye during the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay's defense is way down, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in pass defense. Tampa Bay's gassed defense was on the field for 83 plays this past Monday night in an overtime road loss to the Chiefs. Now they're playing on one less day of rest. Unlike the rested 49ers, the Buccaneers haven't had their bye yet. This will be their 10th straight week of action.

Baker Mayfield has compensated for the loss of his two star wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, by targeting tight end Cade Otton and his running backs out of the backfield. The 49ers' linebackers, though, are excellent in covering tight ends and running backs. The 49ers have a defensive passer rating of 78.7, fourth-best in the NFL.

It doesn't matter if it's Jordan Love or Malik Willis behind center for Green Bay. The Packers are not at the level of the Lions and are going to lose this game.

Detroit has won and covered in its last five games, peaking right now. The Lions are averaging 43 points a game during their past four games.

During the past two weeks, Green Bay was barely able to squeak past the Texans at home and then nipped the 2-6 Jaguars by three points last Sunday on a field goal at the gun.

I doubt the Packers risk Love since they have their bye next week. Love is on pace to throw 28 interceptions this season. He might be gimpy if he plays. Willis can't throw downfield. The Packers would have no backdoor capability if Willis gets the start.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have become the best running back tandem in football. Jared Goff is the highest rated passer in the NFC. Amon-Ra St. Brown gives Detroit the best wide receiver on the field. The Lions hold a special teams edge, too.

Green Bay's defense isn't that good, nor does it produce a consistent pass rush. The Packers have been propped up by an unsustainable 19 takeaways, which is No. 1 in the NFL. It's more than the Packers had all of last season.

Goff's matchup gets even better if cornerback Jaire Alexander and versatile defensive back Evan Williams can't go for Green Bay. They were both injured against the Jaguars.

Hawaii can prove tough at home given its built-in travel advantage.
 
But when it comes to playing on the mainland, the Rainbow Warriors clearly are fade material. Hawaii is 1-14 in its last 15 road games, including 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Only once in their past eight away games have the Rainbow Warriors managed to cover the spread.

I don't see them doing it here against Fresno State. 

The teams last met two seasons ago in Fresno. The Bulldogs won, 55-13. Things have changed since then with Jeff Tedford no longer  Fresno State's coach. He resigned before this season due to health concerns. Tom Skipper is the interim coach and the Bulldogs have picked up their pace.

Fresno State has defeated San Jose State and Nevada during the past two weeks to move its record to 5-3. Mikey Keene was 30-of-41 passing while throwing for three touchdowns and 275 yards against San Jose State last week, his best game of the season. Keene has the receiving depth to exploit Hawaii's 73rd-ranked pass defense.

I don't expect Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to match Keene and Fresno State's offense. The Rainbow Warriors average only 21.5 points, which ranks them 110th. They are 123rd in rushing and 103rd in yards per game. 

The Bulldogs force an average of two turnovers a game and rank among the top-10 in interceptions. Hawaii, by contrast, has only four takeaways. 

When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and starting, the Dolphins are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Tagovailoa makes all his speedy skill position weapons dangerous.

Well Tagovailoa is back in the lineup and Miami should get a huge spark from that, especially being home. The Dolphins face a bottom-tier Cardinals defense that has multiple injuries in their defensive front seven and has a weak secondary that ranks 26th. One of the defenders the Cardinals just lost was linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who is their team leader in sacks.

The Cardinals are traveling cross-country on a short week after upsetting the Chargers at home this past Monday night. Arizona's offense is at its worst playing on grass outdoors.

Note, too, that the last time Kyler Murray won consecutive starts was 2021. It's a string of 11 losses in a row following a victory.

One of the best below-the-radar coaching jobs being turned in this season is by UL-Monroe's first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. This isn't the Warhawks of 2023, who finished last year losing their final 10 games.

Vincent has Monroe off to a 5-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. This includes a 21-19 victory against James Madison as a 19-point 'dog. The Warhawks' only loss was 51-3 to fifth-ranked Texas. That loss has skewed the Warhawks' overall statistics.

South Alabama is the opposite. The 3-4 Jaguars haven't beaten a quality team. Their statistics are artificially high because of an 87-10 victory against Northwestern State, an 0-8 team that plays in the FCS Southland Conference.

The lone time South Alabama stepped up this season was when it played LSU. The Jaguars lost, 42-10, and gave up 677 yards to the Tigers.

Monroe has surrendered more than 300 yards to just one other team besides Texas. The Warhawks have a stout defense, one of the Sun Belt Conference's top running backs in Ahmad Hardy and have an improving quarterback, redshirt freshman Aidan Armenta.

Iowa still has its great defense. Only this season the Hawkeyes can actually produce points. 

The Hawkeyes have scored 31 or more points in four of their six games. They just put up 40 points against Washington last Saturday. 

Michigan State can't match the Hawkeyes in the trenches. The Spartans are down after being buried by Oregon and Ohio State during their past two games.

The Spartans are turnover-prone committing 14. Their quarterback, Aiden Chiles, has been intercepted nine times. 

The Hawkeyes have a top-10 running back in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa also rates a strong special teams edge. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a strong history when favored by 6 1/2 points or fewer going 37-23 ATS. His Hawkeyes also have covered 78 percent the past 23 times as a road favorite against fellow Big Ten teams. 

Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten Conference in a down year for the Big Ten.

But the Boilermakers are better after making a quarterback switch to redshirt freshman Ryan Browne and they draw Oregon at home while the Ducks are dealing with a huge situational disadvantage.

So getting four touchdowns with the Boilermakers is enough for me to get involved.

The Ducks moved to No. 2 in the country in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings after upsetting Ohio State at home, 32-31, at home. Now, six days later, the Ducks are back in action after traveling three time zones losing two days of practice time because of the Friday start. It's going to be difficult for the Ducks to get highly motivated for this matchup after their thrilling, emotional win against the Buckeyes.

This is by far Oregon's longest road trip of the season. The Ducks' other road games were flying to Los Angeles to play UCLA and a less-than-an-hour drive to face in-state rival Oregon State.

Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones have covered just 31 percent of the time in 13 instances this season.

Yes, Oregon holds a monster talent edge. Browne, though, is a huge upgrade on a disappointing Hudson Card. Browne accounted for 415 total yards in a 50-49 loss to Illinois last week. Purdue averaged 9.2 yards per play against a respectable Illinois defense.

I want no part of the rudderless Raiders. They have serious morale issues, a bad head coach and a bottom-tier quarterback situation.
The Steelers are a well-coached, defensive-minded power team. A good quarterback can beat the Steelers like Dak Prescott did last week. But the Raiders lack that.

Las Vegas is switching QB's going with Aidan O'Connell. He's not any better than Gardner Minshew. Both are backup quality. Davante Adams remains out leaving the Raiders with woeful wide receivers to go with below par running backs. 

The Raiders are going against a Pittsburgh defense that yields the second-fewest points per game at 14.6. 

The Steelers should do enough offensively to cover this number. Bo Nix, after all, posted a 117.2 passer rating against the Raiders last week in Denver's, 34-18, victory. The Raiders had 11 penalties in that game. Antonio Pierce has long worn out the initial spark he provided the Raiders when he first took over as head coach last year. He's a bottom-five coach in my book, while Mike Tomlin is a future Hall of Famer. 

Pittsburgh was nipped by Dallas in the final minute last week. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS following a loss. 

The Steelers are heavily run-oriented. The Raiders rank 28th in scoring defense and 22nd in run defense. They are now without star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. 

The Raiders are minus 7 in turnovers. The Steelers are plus 4. 

This line is too respectful of the Panthers. Are they a better team with Andy Dalton at QB? Yes. Are they still the worst team in the NFC? Yes, too.

Dalton isn't some savior. He's an over-the-hill, mediocre starting QB who only has looked decent in comparison to Bryce Young.

Defense, though, is the Panthers' biggest problem. Carolina is surrendering the most points in the NFL giving up 32.3 a game. The Panthers' defense is likely to get even worse as injuries take a toll. They are without their best defensive lineman, Derrick Brown, and just this past week lost their two best linebackers, Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

The Bears have a top-10 defense. They are very opportunistic, too, ranking fourth in takeaways.

Caleb Williams is improving each week. The Bears displayed a balanced attack last week, which can only help Williams as he now faces the easiest defense of his early NFL career.

The Colts are 2-2. The Jaguars are 0-4, the lone winless team in the NFL. But Jacksonville isn't a terrible 0-4. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS and have losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Texans by a combined margin of 12 points, an average loss of four points. A goal line fumble cost the Jaguars probably a sure win against Miami when the Dolphins were at full strength with Tua Tagovailoa.

The oddsmaker believes it's time for the Jaguars to win making them the favorite. I agree. 

The Colts, a dome team, haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014. Indy has dropped nine consecutive road games against the Jaguars, counting one in London. There is a high possibility of rain for this game. That's a plus in Jaguars' favor being an outdoor team. 

Jacksonville not only is due and in must-win mode win, but the timing is good. The Colts are severely hobbled. Jonathan Taylor is out and Anthony Richardson isn't likely to play leaving the Jaguars to defend against immobile Joe Flacco.

The Colts are even more banged-up on defense. They are down several defensive backs and linemen, including three-time Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner. The Colts rank 31st in run defense. The Jaguars are averaging 5.7 yards per run, which rates second in the NFL.

This isn't the good Troy teams of past years. The Trojans lost a lot of quality players from last season. They are 1-4 with their lone win coming against Florida A&M.

The Trojans average just 21.4 points a game. They don't have the firepower, nor defense, to keep up with high-scoring Texas State. Troy only has one defensive takeaway, too, so turnovers shouldn't be a problem for Texas State.

The Bobcats have Jordan McCloud, who I consider to be the best QB in the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a tremendous offensive-minded coach in GJ Kinne.

No way, though, does Texas State take the Trojans lightly. Not after the Bobcats blew a 22-0 lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State last week. I see the far more talented Bobcats taking out their frustrations on the hapless Trojans.

First-year head coach Mike Macdonald has gotten the Seahawks out to a 3-0 start. Macdonald is a defensive mastermind and appears to be a promising head coach.

But this is a bad spot for the Seahawks, who have been fortunate to have begun with three easy opponents: Broncos, Patriots - who they beat in overtime - and Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa getting Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle instead. The Seahawks committed 11 penalties in their victory against Miami, but the Dolphins were done in by totally inept quarterback play. That won't be the case here with Jared Goff and his bevy of weapons and excellent offensive line.

The Lions hold Super Bowl aspirations. The Seahawks are far from that stage. This is a huge step-up game for Seattle.

Detroit has revenge for a 37-31 overtime home loss to the Seahawks last year. The Lions also catch Seattle down four key members of their defensive front seven. The Seahawks also might be missing starting linebacker Jerome Baker, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Out for Seattle are Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe. The Seahawks don't have much of a pass rush without Nwosu and Mafe.

The Seahawks do expect to get back running back Kenneth Walker III. But offensive right tackle George Fant remains out. Backup tackle Stone Forsythe replaces Fant and has the primary responsibility of blocking emerging superstar Aidan Hutchinson, who entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 6 1/2.

I find this line short in a matchup of the defending Super Bowl champions against the Falcons, who are trying to avoid a seventh straight losing season.

The line is short because the Chiefs will be without their best running back, injured Isiah Pacheco, and the Falcons pulled off a dramatic road victory against the Eagles this past Monday night.

It means the Falcons are on a short week and in a letdown spot.

Andy Reid can mix and match running backs to replace Pacheco, who is not an elite player. Patrick Mahomes is. Mahomes has speedsters Rasheed Rice and Xavier Worthy to throw to on a fast track inside Atlanta's dome stadium. That makes Mahomes even more dangerous if that's possible.

Kirk Cousins played better than he did opening week coming back from his Achilles injury. Cousins isn't all the way back, though. His offensive line could encounter trouble from Kansas City's star defensive lineman Chris Jones, who could collapse the pocket on the immobile Cousins.

I don't see the Falcons being strong enough to trade points with Mahomes.

The Seahawks were getting stale under Pete Carroll. Mike Macdonald is a defensive whiz and a promising first-year head coach. I just don't trust his Seahawks laying more than a field goal in this spot. Seattle was fortunate to draw the Broncos and Patriots in its first two games. If it wasn't for a fourth quarter field goal miss by New England, the Seahawks probably would not have beaten the Patriots.

Yeah Tua Tagovailoa is out. I trust offensive guru Mike McDaniel to coach up Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins have had extra preparation time having played last Thursday, Thompson has been in Miami's system for the past three seasons and he has major weapons with De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Raheem Mostert could be back this week, too, adding to the skill position speed.

Thompson isn't close to Tagovailoa's accuracy, but he's mobile and doesn't have to throw pin-point passes with the speedy stars he has around him.

Seattle is dealing with a major injury, too. Kenneth Walker III missed last week due to an oblique injury. That's likely to cause him to miss this game, too, forcing another top-heavy passing attack from Seattle. The Seahawks are much better off when they are balanced. Miami ranks fifth in pass defense.

There would be a huge class difference in favor of the Jets if there weren't an injury factor and situational element to this game. But there is, making it even worse for New England.

The Patriots are traveling on a short week with a rookie head coach following an overtime game. Not only do the Patriots lack a downfield passing game - none of their wide receivers have averaged more than 31 receiving yards - but they have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, which wasn't good to start.

New England will be missing the starting left side of its offensive line. They also could be down their center and right tackle. The Jets have defensive injuries. But their defense is deep enough to take advantage especially when they can stack the line knowing their secondary has no fear of Jacoby Brissett.

Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons to rely on to push the Jets' offense to win by more than a touchdown.

The Falcons have had six straight losing seasons. They don't look any better this season with an aging Kirk Cousins off major surgery and a weak defensive front seven.

I put the Eagles right up there with the 49ers as the best team in the NFC. Saquon Barkley upgraded an already stellar Eagles offense. Philly's defense should keep improving as the players get more acclimated to new and highly respected defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

It's a drop in class for the Eagles' defense going from the Packers to the Falcons, especially given how bad Cousins looked opening week. Rusty from not having played in nearly a year, Cousins could throw for only 155 yards and threw two interceptions in an 18-10 loss to the Steelers. It wasn't just Cousins' poor statistics. He looked extremely shaky in the pocket, maybe not fully comfortable with his repaired torn Achilles injury.

Perhaps the Falcons could get away with a poor performance if they were playing one of their horrible NFC South Division opponents. But they're not. They are going to need their "A" game to stay close to the rested Eagles on the road and I don't see that happening.

Sure the Jets were a major disappointment opening week failing to step up against the 49ers. But now the Jets drop way down in class knowing they can't open the season 0-2.

Aaron Rodgers showed me enough that I'm confident he'll make a big difference in the Jets' offense. He's aided by a top-three running back in Breece Hall and a top-10 wide receiver, Garrett Wilson.

The Titans don't have anyone nearly that good at the skill positions. What they do have is a boneheaded second-year gunslinger quarterback in Will Levis. Not only is Levis inexperienced and inaccurate, but he's mistake-prone and not careful with the football.

The Jets have an elite defense despite not having holdout Hasson Reddick and looking bad against the 49ers. I expect the Jets' defense to dominate an overmatched Levis and a youthful Titans offensive line.

UCLA is down this season and Indiana is a rising team under new coach Curt Cignetti, who made James Madison a power before coming to Indiana. The Hoosiers have an underrated QB in Kurtis Rourke, who played in the MAC last year and thus wasn't that publicized.

UCLA barely got past a bad Hawaii team, 16-13, in their opener. Indiana is a big step up for the Bruins and I don't see them making that step up against an underrated Hoosiers squad that is much better than perceived.

Would I really go with a Sun Belt Conference team against a former Pac-12 now Big 12 team in a pick-type game?

Darn right when the matchup is Texas State hosting Arizona State and it's on Thursday. Texas State is a rising program under offensive guru G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats beat Rice in a bowl game last season in Kinne's first year as head coach.

The Bobcats feature a big-time quarterback, Jordan McCloud. He was the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year with James Madison last year and the second overall pick in my Sun Belt Conference fantasy football draft gobbled up by me. The 2-0 Bobcats just destroyed USTA, 49-10.

This may be Texas State's biggest game in school history hosting a Power-Four team in a stand-alone college game that will be nationally-televised by ESPN.

Second-year Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has a sharp offensive mind, too, but he's still cleaning the manure left by former Sun Devils coach Herm Edwards. ASU was 3-9 last season, its second consecutive three-win season.

Dillingham has the Sun Devils off to a 2-0 start with victories against Wyoming and Mississippi State. The Sun Devils were touchdown favorites against those foes. Dillingham says Texas State is the best team his Sun Devils have faced so far. He's right.

It's a brutal travel spot for the Sun Devils after playing this past Saturday at home. They barely were able to get two practices in. ASU also opens Big 12 action next week on the road against Texas Tech.

ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt isn't close to being as good as McCloud. Instead, the Sun Devils rely on running back Cam Skattebo. He was tremendous last week rushing for 262 yards against Mississippi State. Skattebo did that on 33 carries. Dillingham can't burn out his star runner before conference play even begins. So Skattebo's role could be diminished.

Never mind the trend of the Super Bowl loser, which in this case is the 49ers, being 4-20 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

I like the Jets because they have the better defense and skill position stars. This isn't a knock on the 49ers. But I rank the Jets as having the best defense in football.

The Jets ranked third in total defense and No. 2 in pass defense last season despite being on the field nearly all the time because of an inept offense that had terrible quarterbacking.

The Jets still have their defense stars, but now have Aaron Rodgers back healthy to take the pressure off. It's easy to forget just how good Rodgers is after he played only four plays last season. He's not vintage by any means. But I like his accuracy, veteran savvy and leadership more than Brock Purdy.

Garrett Wilson gives the Jets the most talented wide receiver on the field. Christian McCaffrey may still be the premier running back in football, but Breece Hall is a close second.

The Jets have much to prove. Here's their chance on the national stage. The combination of Rodgers and the Jets' defense makes taking a field goal worthy of an investment.

The Bears are being overhyped because of rookie Caleb Williams and his trio of excellent wide receivers: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

There is more to this matchup than just the Bears' flashy passing game. The Titans no longer have Derrick Henry. But they picked up a lot of talent in free-agency that has largely gone beneath-the-radar. This includes upgrading at cornerback with L'Jarius Snead and strengthening their wide receiver depth with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd.

Will Levis isn't drawing nearly the publicity of Williams. But he flashed in his rookie season last year and should do better this season with improved offensive line play. The Titans brought in maybe the best of the free agent centers, Lloyd Cushenberry. They have first-round picks JC Latham and Peter Skoronski, too, in their offensive line, which is now coached by legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

The Bears' offensive line is far more of a question mark than the Titans. Don't get caught up in hype for the Bears. At least not yet.

Usually my first look is backing a Big Ten Conference team against a mediocre American Athletic Conference opponent, which is what we have here. However, Michigan State is not a good Big Ten team. The Spartans were 4-8 last season, 2-7 in the Big Ten.

Florida Atlantic is rebuilding in Tom Herman's second season. The Owls, though, have a respectable defense ranking 59th in scoring defense and 64th in run defense last season. The Owls should be improved this season returning eight defensive starters.

The key takeaway is that Michigan State isn't very good offensively. In fact, Michigan State's offense is downright horrible. The Spartans ranked 121st in offensive success rate, 128th in total yards and 131st in scoring averaging a meager 15.9 points a game in 2023. Sophomore QB Aiden Chiles is set to make his first college start for the Spartans.

Florida Atlantic's offense wasn't that much better statistically than Michigan State's. But the Owls upgraded their roster through the transfer portal bringing in QB Cam Fancher from Marshall, where he accounted for 15 TD's last season.

No Grayson McCall at quarterback for Coastal Carolina. No backing the Chanticleers. That along with Jacksonville State's superior defense, home field and having revenge makes me comfortable backing the Gamecocks.

A rare national TV home game and revenge for last year's loss to Coastal Carolina should have Jacksonville State sky high for this matchup. The Chanticleers defeated Jacksonville State, 30-16, at home last season but the score was misleading. The Gamecocks had more first downs and only had six fewer yards. The Gamecocks won't have to deal with star passer McCall, who transferred to NC State.

There's a huge drop from McCall to Coastal Carolina's new quarterbacks, Noah Kim and Ethan Vasko. Jacksonville State went 9-4 in its first year in the FBS. Rich Rodriquez's defense was the best in Conference USA last season giving up 21.2 points and recording 39 sacks.

Jacksonville State is a team on the rise in Rodriguez's third season. Coastal Carolina has been on the decline the past two years.

Rodriguez's teams are known for running. Coastal Carolina's is weak against the run and must replace its three top tacklers from last season.

The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. 

The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. 

Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. 

The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. 

The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.

Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.

Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.

Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.

The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.

The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.

But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.

New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.

The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.

This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.

The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss.
Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.

The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.

Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.

Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.

North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.

The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.

I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.

Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.

Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.

Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.

So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.

This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.

My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.

Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.

The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.

The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.

New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.

This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.

Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.

So I'll take this many points given these factors.

The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.

Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.

What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.

Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. 

The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense. 

TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed. 

The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. 

Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.

Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.

The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.

So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.

Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.

Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.

The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot.

LSU nipped the Crimson Tide, 32-31, in overtime at home last season. Now the Tide gets the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is 7-1 with a lone loss to Texas. Since that defeat, the Crimson Tide have rolled to six consecutive victories going 5-1 ATS.

The Crimson Tide rank in the top 17 in fewest points allowed and fewest yards given up per game. They are giving up just 15.1 points in their last six games.

LSU is the best offensive team in the country. Daniels is moving up on the Heisman Trophy list. But the Tigers are similar to USC, a great offense with a poor defense. LSU surrendered 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Mississippi. By comparison, Alabama held Mississippi to 10 points and Arkansas to 21 points.

The Tigers' defense is improving. However, Alabama's offense also has shown improvement. A key here is LSU injuries on defense. The Tigers will be without defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo and three of their best defensive backs.

I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. 

The Falcons have the better record because they are the superior team. Ball State has a terrible offense. The 2-6 Cardinals average a puny 16.1 points a game and rank 127th in total yards. They have used three quarterbacks, with none of them being any good. 

Ball State just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Central Michigan, 24-17, this past Saturday as a 5-point home 'dog. That was the Cardinals' first MAC win in four games and makes them a little fat and happy going on the road for this short turnaround game. 

Bowling Green ranks in the top-30 in defensive total yards and pass defense. The Falcons are opportunistic, ranking fifth in takeaways with 12. The Falcons don't have an outstanding QB either, but they have a stud running back in Terion Stewart. He averages 6.1 yards per carry and has gone over 100 yards rushing in four of his last five games.

The Falcons are 4-4 and 2-2 in the MAC. They have played a tough schedule. Their losses are to unbeaten Michigan, unbeaten Liberty and to Ohio and Miami of Ohio, two of the top teams in the MAC. Bowling Green owns an impressive 38-27 road victory against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have defeated a pair of top-20 teams in North Carolina and Miami. 

Ball State is a big drop in class for Bowling Green.

Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start.

The Lions are a legitimate, good team. The Raiders aren't. I like the Lions to bounce back in a big way hosting their first nationally televised Monday night home game since 2018.

Detroit had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits, before losing to the Ravens.

Jared Goff plays much better at home inside a dome where cold and wind don't factor. The Lions remain without injured David Montgomery, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up against the Ravens amassing 126 total yards and showing why he was a first-round draft pick.

Detroit's defense is much improved, especially against the run. But the Lions have trouble against mobile QB's. Lamar Jackson really hurt them last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is anything but mobile. He's also turnover-prone. The Raiders entered this Week 8 committing the most turnovers in the NFL with 15. Garoppolo has eight interceptions in just five games.

Las Vegas averages just 16 points a game and entered this week last in rushing, which doesn't say much for the highly disappointing Josh Jacobs.

The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that.

The Vikings are coming off a stunning upset home win against the 49ers this past Monday now. That was their second win in a row having beaten the Bears during the NFL debut of rookie QB Tyson Bagent two weeks ago.

Minnesota is weak defensively, lacks a good ground attack and its passing game is down several notches without Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are an average team at best. They come into Green Bay on a short week flush with short-term success. They'll find a desperate Packers team with their season and manhood hanging in the balance following three straight losses, two coming on the road to the Raiders and Broncos, whose combined record is 5-9.

The Packers are an average team like the Vikings, but this is a great spot for them. They haven't played at home in four weeks and they get their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, back from injury. Jordan Love desperately needs Jones especially against the blitz-happy Vikings.

Love isn't as good as he looked during the first three games. But he isn't as bad as he's looked during the last three games.

Kirk Cousins is more turnover-prone than Love. The Vikings have committed 14 turnovers, which is second-most in the NFL next to the Raiders.

We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. 

I think Drake Maye is the best quarterback in college football. But his surrounding talent isn't that good. Neither is North Carolina's defense. Virginia is a very weak offensive team.

Georgia Tech thrives as an underdog. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS (82 percent) the last 11 times when getting points. Georgia Tech was a heavy underdog to North Carolina each of the last two years. The Yellow Jackets not only covered against the Tar Heels the past two seasons, but beat them straight-up! 

The Yellow Jackets already have scored upset victories against fellow ACC opponents, Miami and Wake Forest, this season. They certainly are capable of not only covering this double-digit spread, but winning straight-up. 

The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game.

The 49ers don't need Christian McCaffrey to beat the Vikings.

San Francisco is in a huge bounce-back spot after getting upset by the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. That game was played in windy conditions, which bothered Brock Purdy. This game is being played in a dome and Purdy is stepping down in defensive class going from the No. 1 defense to a below average one that will be minus one of its best interior players with Marcus Davenport out.

The 49ers were averaging 33.4 points looking like the best team in the NFL before running into the Browns. Even with that loss, San Francisco has covered 13 of its last 17 games.

The Vikings are going to struggle to dent a 49ers defense that gives up the fewest points per game, ranks No. 3 in fewest yards allowed and has 11 takeaways. San Francisco has the best turnover ratio in the league at plus 8, while the Vikings are minus 7 in takeaways/giveaways.

This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. 

But that's not just why I like Minnesota so much. 

Iowa is the most bogus Top-25 team in the nation. The Hawkeyes somehow are 6-1 despite being outgained by an average of 50 yards per game! The Hawkeyes have only outgained one of their opponents and that was 2-5 Western Michigan, a bad MAC team. 

Yes, Iowa has a great defense as it usually has. But the Hawkeyes have no offense. They've lost their starting QB, Cade McNamara, and now tight end Erick All, one of their best players, also is done for the season. 

Minnesota doesn't have a QB edge too often, but they do here with strong-armed Athan Kaliakmanis against Deacon Hill, who might be the worst starting QB in the country. Hill was 6-for-14 for 37 yards against Wisconsin last week. His average attempted pass was for just 2.2 yards. The Hawkeyes still managed to beat the Badgers, whose quarterback Tanner Mordecai, was injured in the game. 

Minnesota is well rested having had a bye last week. The 3-3 Gophers are a mediocre Big Ten team. They can't step up against the conference's Big Three of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But they are capable of beating any other Big Ten team, including the much-overrated Hawkeyes.

This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games.

Denver's defense is way down from previous seasons. But it's not as bad as the Dolphins, with their 4X100 team of relay runners, made it look during that 70-20 Week 3 Miami victory.

Patrick Mahomes is still getting acclimated to his young wide receiving group. They are not making Mahomes look good. Mahomes already has thrown four interceptions. Travis Kelce is likely to play, but he's not 100 percent. The weather conditions favor more running than usual with the wind factor at 15-25 mph. The total has gone way down because of that.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as Kansas City's top runner. Nothing against Pacheco, but backing Denver I'd rather see much more of him than Mahomes. The Broncos are expected to get back from injury their best running back, Javonte Williams.

As bad as the Broncos were last season, they played the Chiefs tough in both games losing, 34- 28 and 27-24. The Broncos are supposed to be better coached this year.

Certainly the Broncos won't lack motivation knowing they have a chance to redeem themselves for their disappointing season. Note that two of Denver's four losses were by a combined three points. If the Broncos would have won those games and not blown a second-half lead against the Jets last week, they would be 4-1 and the point spread would be much lower.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game.

These numbers include a surprising performance against Jacksonville State last Thursday when the Bearkats almost upset the Gamecocks losing, 35-28, in overtime.

But while the Bearkats are off a tough overtime loss, Liberty was idle last week. The Flames are 4-0 SU and ATS. They are prime contenders to win Conference USA. They've produced 33 or more points in each of their games. All of their victories have been by double-digits. QB Kaidon Salter has an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's only been sacked three times.

Sam Houston State ranks 116th in run defense. So Liberty should have its way both on the ground and through the air.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. 

Surprised? Don't be. Middle Tennessee State is the right side. 

The Blue Raiders have played a far tougher schedule than Jacksonville State going against Alabama, Missouri - who they lost to by just four points on the road - Colorado State and Western Kentucky. 

Middle Tennessee State desperately needs to win this home game to even its Conference USA record to 1-1. 

Jacksonville State had to come from two touchdowns behind to defeat winless Sam Houston State in overtime, 35-28. Sam Houston State entered that matchup as the most punchless team in the nation having scored 10 points during its first three games. 

That game was played this past Thursday. So the Gamecocks will be playing a second consecutive road game within the span of six days. 

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. 

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010.

It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play.

Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect.

The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season.

Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs.

The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl.

This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day.

Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season.

Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game.