This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key.  The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play. 

Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards.  UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games.  Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo.  Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of. 

There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed.  Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game.  This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate. 

The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years.  Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen.  Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL. 

Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones.   Neither offensive line is playing well either.  Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game.  Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. 

Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers.  Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins. 

Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games.  The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury.  Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1. 

I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. 

 The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday.  The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills.  This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career.  A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total. 

This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself.  The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force. 

This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total.  The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up.  The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against.  The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead. 

The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here.  The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson.  The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back. 

Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are.  Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB.  The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range. 

Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses.  Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years.  Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns. 

Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions.  West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses. 

The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average.  Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success.  The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either. 

There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too.

 The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended.  The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.    
  

Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them.  The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal.  The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary. 

Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet.  The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage.  Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky.  Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons. 
 

South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA.  This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama.  Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game.  Both teams play at a slow pace, too. 

I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses.  The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7.  Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros. 

The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected.  I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now.  Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago.  The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under. 

Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps.

 Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.  

Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here.

 Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year.  Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games. 
 

Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year.  Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's. 

The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. 

 Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points.  Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee.  This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game.  Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games.  Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles.  I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy.  The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6.  Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years.  Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book.  Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties  Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties.  Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent.  The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season.  The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo.  You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all.  Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate.   Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me.  Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones.  Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1.  I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago. 

Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup.

 Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense.  The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding.  The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo.  Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running.  The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games.  Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.  

Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks.  Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster.  Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury.  Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.  Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season.  No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games. 
 
 

The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs.  Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington.  Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches.  On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre.   Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain.  

The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. 

 Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson.   The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers.  It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to.  Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner.  The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts  surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.     

I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale.

 Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind.    Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games.  Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this.  The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant.  This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense. 
 
  

Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. 

 But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph.  Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game.  Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under. 

What we have in this Cure Bowl matchup of Liberty versus Coastal Carolina is two strong defensive teams going against slow-tempo, run-oriented offenses. So I find this total excessively high.  Liberty gives up the seventh-fewest yards and 10th-fewest passing yards in the nation. The Flames have held their foes to an average of 19.2 points per game. Coastal Carolina has been even stingier limiting their opponents to just 18.7 points a game. The Chanticleers could take advantage of a rusty Liberty offense as the Flames last played back on Nov. 27 and that game was against the worst Division I team in college football, Massachusetts.  Both teams ranked among the bottom 30 in college football in terms of pace. 

Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks.  The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time.  The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury.  A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week.  The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week.  Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over. 
  

This total keeps getting pushed up higher. It's high enough now where I'm going to get involved in the Under.  Yes, Appalachian State is going to produce a lot of points with an offense that averages 31.8 points and is facing a weak North Texas defense. But it takes scoring from both teams to go above a total this big. I don't see North Texas contributing its share of points. The Mountaineers have held opponents to 19.3 points a game. They rank 12th in fewest yards allowed at 312 a game.  North Texas won't have its starting quarterback, Austin Aune, nor its most dynamic player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, who set a school record with 19 TD catches this season. 

Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. 

 The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season.  Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success.   Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses. 
   

There are many reasons to like this total Under. A main one being weather. The forecast is a 100 percent chance of rain with wind in the 10-20 mph range.  Arizona State's offensive statistics are skewed from last week's 70-point performance against mistake-prone Arizona. The Sun Devils' offense isn't nearly that good and they are not up-tempo.  The Sun Devils hold opponents to 20 points a game, which is the best in the Pac-12. Oregon State is down two of their starting wide receivers, Trevon Bradford and Champ Flemings. The Beavers' star running back, Jermar Jefferson, is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last week. Oregon State figures to run the ball a lot with or without Jefferson. 

I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. 

 Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay.  The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr.  Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader.  Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games.  Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion.  I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.  
   

San Diego State completely shut down Zach Wilson and BYU's offense last season in a 13-3 home victory.

 While I highly doubt the Aztecs hold the Cougars to three points this time, I do expect a low-scoring game with BYU struggling to solve San Diego State's defense again.  The Cougars were held 17 points in losing to Coastal Carolina this past Saturday. San Diego State has better defensive numbers than Coastal Carolina ranking eighth in scoring defense giving up 16.3 points and third in total defense holding foes to 269.1 yards. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Aztecs' last 11 road games.  Wilson draws a lot of media attention, but BYU has a strong defense allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. The Cougars are seventh in total defense allowing 299.9 yards per contest. The Aztecs are very weak offensively especially their passing attack, which ranks 119th.  San Diego State's game plan is to keep the clocking moving by running the ball and playing for field position trying to make sure BYU has long stretches to go. 
  

At first glance this total may seem a little low considering Buffalo beat Kent State, 70-41, in its last game.

 But Akron is an entirely different opponent. The Zips may not even score. That was the case in last year's game. Buffalo blanked them, 21-0. That total was just 48. Buffalo remains a power in the Mid-American Conference. Akron remains terrible. But this year's total is much higher. I don't think that's justified. Yes, Buffalo can name its score here. The Bulls are going to destroy Akron. But to what extent? The Zips are in the argument for worst offense in the country. They rank 120th in total yards and 114th in scoring averaging 19.2 points. Buffalo is holding foes to an average of 24.5 points - and that's after surrendering 41 to Kent State. The Bulls held Bowling Green to 17 points and Miami of Ohio to 10 in their previous two games.  Akron has been a huge Under team. The Under has cashed in 69 percent of its last 51 games. The last four in this series have gone Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with 12-15 mph winds. More ammunition to play Under.  
   

No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year.  Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games.  New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks.  The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games.  The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
   

Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 41.3 points during its last eight games. The Yellow Jackets are short-handed in the secondary and their defense is running on fumes as this marks their third game in 13 days. Yellow Jackets QB Jeff Sims, though, should be able to pass on Pittsburgh. Sims is a dual threat. He's rushed for 478 yards and thrown for 1,643. Pittsburgh is geared to stop the run. The Panthers rank 82nd in pass defense. The Over has cashed in each of the Panthers' last seven games. Look for that trend to continue here.

Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games.  The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November.  Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games.  The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games.  The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
 

These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other.

 The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes.  Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less. 
  

No, this low total isn't weather-related. The oddsmaker is just giving too much respect to Wisconsin's defense and not enough to Indiana's offense.

 Yes, the Hoosiers lost their star QB, Michael Penix Jr., for the season. But former Utah QB Jack Tuttle is one of the better backup QB's. He's a downfield passer with plenty of high-caliber receiving weapons and an excellent running back, Stevie Scott. The Hoosiers just rushed for 234 yards against Maryland in their last game.  Wisconsin's offense is much better than it looked against Northwestern two weeks ago. The Badgers were idle last week after their game was cancelled. The extra time is good for their banged-up receiving corps and gives them ample time and motivation to scheme against Indiana, whose defense heavily relies on turnovers.  Making the Badgers more dangerous than in previous years is the emergence of highly-touted freshman QB Graham Mertz. He could be Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson.  Weather won't be a problem as the forecast is for a clear day with no wind and temperatures in the 30s. 
     

Both teams are 0-4 and have terrible offenses.  Bowling Green ranks 126th in scoring averaging 13.5 points. The Falcons are 111th in yards gained. Akron isn't much better being 123th in scoring at 16.3. The Zips rank 120th in yards gained.  I don't like either of these team's QB's. Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald has a 1-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Zips QB Zack Gibson has a 3-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio. So I see this total as being too high.  Akron has a race chance to win. So the Zips are likely to feed the ball a lot to Teon Dollard, their one decent skill position player. A lot of running plays is going to eat clock.   The Under has cashed seven of the last eight times they've met.   

Short on personnel because of COVID 19, TCU coach Gary Patterson has made no secret about his game plan - run. The Horned Frogs want to shorten this game by playing ball control keeping Oklahoma State, with its bevy of star skill position players, off the field as much as possible.  The Horned Frogs, though, haven't proven they can effectively run the ball against better defenses. They've padded their status versus lower echelon Big 12 Conference foes.  The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries. Their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, is questionable with an ankle injury. TCU has held three of its past four opponents to 80 rushing yards.  Only once in the past 11 instances have the Cowboys gone Over the total in December. TCU has gone Under in eight of its last 10 December games.