Yoshinobu Yamamoto has earned my full trust. He has been dominant since the beginning of September and been the best pitcher in the playoffs. Yamamoto has allowed just seven earned runs in 55 2/3 innings during the past two  months. The Blue Jays had plenty of problems with Yamamoto's splitter and curveball in Game 2. Yamamoto went the distance, holding Toronto to one run on four hits with eight strikeouts and no walks in a 5-1 victory.

Kevin Gausman gave up three earned runs, including two homers, in 6 2/3 innings while going against Yamamoto this past Saturday. He will oppose him again today. The Blue Jays are 4-9 in Gausman’s last 13 starts since August. 

The Dodgers have managed only three runs in their last two games, both in LA. But they are averaging 4.5 runs in their two games in Toronto.

Both teams are vulnerable in the bullpen. The Dodgers, though, have a reliable closer in Roki Sasaki. Yamamoto is far more capable than Gausman of going deep into the game. 

I have the utmost respect for lefty Blake Snell, but I'm not going to turn down this nice underdog price on the home Blue Jays.

Toronto has one of the best home records in the majors finishing the regular season 54-27 at home. LA's regular season road record was just 41-40.

The Blue Jays lead the league in scoring since the All-Star break averaging 5.6 runs per game. They hit lefties well, too. Toronto batted .264 against southpaws, the third-best mark in the majors. Toronto ranked fourth against lefties in OPS.

Behind Snell is a Dodgers bullpen that can be shaky with a postseason 4.88 ERA..

Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has impressed with his strikeout ratio of 11.8 per nine innings. LA's bats could be rusty, too, since the Dodgers last played a week ago.

Pack your bags, you're going to the World Series, Seattle.

I see the Mariners ending the AL Championship Series in this Game 6 in Toronto. The Mariners are 2-0 on the road against the Blue Jays in the series and this away game sets up for them, too.

I give Seattle a strong edge in starting pitching with Logan Gilbert facing rookie Trey Yesavage, who has command issues with a 1.43 WHIP. This was the same starting pitching matchup in Game 2 at Toronto that the Mariners won, 10-3. Seattle scored five earned runs off Yesavage in four innings.

Not only is Gilbert more experienced, but he's a stud when healthy, which he is now. Gilbert's WHIP the past three years is 1.03, 0.89 and 1.08. He is pitching on his normal five day's rest, too. Gilbert has not allowed more than two earned runs during any of his last five road starts.

I like Seattle's bullpen better than Toronto's, too, especially closer Andres Munoz over Jeff Hoffman. I rank Munoz as the best right-handed closer in the American League. Hoffman had a 4.37 ERA and gave up 15 homers, most in the American League for a reliever. Munoz is trustworthy. Hoffman is not.

I give the Mariners the checkmark when it comes to offense, too. Seattle's offense became extremely potent following the trade deadline. The Mariners had the second-highest road slugging and OPS percentages in baseball and ranked third in away batting average.

Toronto could be without George Springer, its second-best offensive player. He is questionable after taking a fastball to the knee in Friday's game.

The Brewers should have pulled out Game 1 in the ninth inning. But they didn't. And now they are in trouble.

While I don't fully trust the Dodgers' bullpen, I do have strong faith in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I felt he was the second-best pitcher in the National League next to Paul Skenes. Yamamoto has outstanding road numbers - 9-4 record, a 2.13 ERA and a .168 batting average allowed.

The Brewers could manage only two hits last night. Their hitters are unfamiliar with Yamamoto.

Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has yielded five earned runs, three homers and five walks in 9 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs.

The  Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 games, peaking at just the right time. 

Seattle has one of the best home records in baseball at 52-31. The Mariners own the better lineup and superior bullpen. 

Yet the visiting Tigers are favored based entirely on presumptive 2025 AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal taking the mound. 

Nothing against Skubal, who is deserving of baseball's highest pitching honor. But Seattle has a good starter going, too, in George Kirby. He is facing a lower bar. The Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14 games. 

The Mariners are not intimidated by Skubal, having already beaten the Tigers three times this season when Skubal has started. This includes a victory in Game 2 of this series. 

Even if you consider the starting pitching matchup of Jack Flaherty versus Slade Cecconi even, which I don't, the Guardians hold a huge bullpen edge. Cleveland also is the home team and has played far better than the Tigers down the stretch with a 20-5 record in its last 25 games.

Flaherty is 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA. His last two starts were against Cleveland and both were losses. The Tigers lost those two games by a combined score of 9-1.

Cecconi has a lower ERA than Flaherty and a better WHIP.

Cleveland's bullpen had the second-lowest ERA in the American League, while the Tigers' bullpen is mediocre at best. 

I consider this a huge pitching mismatch. Drew Rasmussen has allowed five hits or fewer in 16 straight starts while posting a 2.80 ERA across 10 wins. He’s backed by the superior bullpen.

The Orioles are averaging only 2.4 runs per game in their last seven games.

Baltimore starter Cade Povich has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. 

This is a cheap price to get the Reds and Brady Singer against the Cardinals and Andre Pallante.

Singer is a solid middle-of-the rotation type starter with a 13-10 record, 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Singer's 13 victories are tied for the fourth-most in the National League.

The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last eight games. They are one of the least powerful teams in the majors ranking 28th in homers and could be without Wilson Contreras for a second straight game. Contreras leads the Cardinals in home runs and RBIs. He left Monday's game with right biceps tightness.

St. Louis has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last 11 games.

Pallante it's one of the least effective starters in the National League. His bad numbers speak for themselves: 6-14 record, 5.34 ERA, which goes up to 5.67 when he pitches at home, and a 1.43 WHIP. He has only 104 strikeouts in 155 innings.
 

The Mariners have made their move going into first place in the AL West. They've done this by winning their last nine games. I like them big on Tuesday in a pitching matchup of Logan Gilbert against Michael Wacha. The Mariners are 14 games better than the Royals.

Gilbert would be an ace on many teams. He hasn't been healthy this season, but he is rounding into his elite form allowing six earned runs in his last 4 starts spanning 22 2/3 innings. Gilbert is backed by the best right handed closer in the American League, Andres Munoz.

The Royals have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors. Kansas City is 2-7 in its last nine games.

Seattle's offense is much better away from their pitching park. The Mariners rank second in road OPS and third in batting average and slugging percentage.

Wacha is a middle of the rotation type starter, more innings-eater than star. He has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP against the Mariners this season in five innings pitched.

When healthy Hunter Greene is in the discussion for being the most electric pitcher in baseball.

Greene has a 2.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 113 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings. Greene is healthy, which is bad news for the A's.

You need a power picture like Greene to navigate hitter-friendly Sutter Park. A's starter Luis Severino hasn't been able to do it. He has a 6.33 ERA in Sacramento.

The Reds are above .500. The A's are 12 games below .500.

Cincinnati has much the better starter, a superior bullpen and stronger team overall. That makes the Reds easy to back at this price.

Bruce Bochy has done a nice job of keeping the Rangers in playoff contention. But Texas is not anywhere near the class of Milwaukee. The Brewers easily have the best record in baseball at 89-55.

We have a battle of lefties going today and the records are just as lopsided in Milwaukee's favor with a pitching matchup of Jose Quintana against Jake Latz.

The Brewers are 28-15 versus lefties with the second-highest batting average against southpaws. Texas is 16-22 versus lefties.

Quintana isn't getting many strikeouts, even by his low standards, but he is 11-5 because he plays for the perfect team for him as the Brewers play excellent defense and don't beat themselves.

Both teams have a lot of injuries. The Brewers' depth is much better, though. The savvy Quintana faces a Texas team that is without four of its five best hitters. Out for the Rangers are Corey Seager, Adolis García, Marcus Semien and Evan Carter.

Latz is a converted reliever. He has been thrust into the Rangers' starting pitching rotation because of injuries to Tyler Mahle and Nathan Eovaldi. He faces a Milwaukee offense that ranks second in runs and batting average.

The Giants are making a huge surge to catch the Mets for the final National League wild card spot. San Francisco is 11-1 in its last 12 games and has won five in a row.

The price is short enough to back San Francisco in this game. The Giants are averaging 8.6 runs in their last nine games. They get to face an ineffective Andre Pallante here. Pallante has a 9.82 ERA in his last five starts.

Giant starter Justin Verlander doesn't have good season numbers, but he's been pitching better down the stretch with a 3.38 ERA during his past seven starts.

The Giants are worth riding especially at this low price.

Can't see the Pirates sweeping the Red Sox in Boston. Not with this pitching matchup of Mitch Keller versus Lucas Giolito and Boston having a rested Aroldis Chapman to close if necessary.

It probably was good that no team traded for Mitch Keller, since he has an 8.31 ERA in his last six starts.

The right-handed Giolito has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts. The Pirates rank last against righties in slugging percentage and second-to-last versus righties in OPS.

Note, too, the Pirates are 24 games below 500 when playing on the road.

Nestor Cortes has looked better and better since joining the Padres. He has a 3.00 ERA in four starts with San Diego and was dominant in his last start giving up only one hit across six scoreless innings in a 5-1 win against the Dodgers.

Cortes and a San Diego bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors should be able to hold down a Twins lineup that has become impotent, ranking in the bottom-10 in runs and batting average.

Minnesota has lost 10 of its last 13 games. The Twins have lost much of their respectability after being sellers at the trade deadline.

Twin starter Zebby Matthews has a high ceiling, but he is paying his dues now with a 5.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts. The Twins may have the worst middle relief in the majors after they tore down their bullpen.

The good news for the Orioles is they get Kyle Bradish back. He has been out since June 2024 following Tommy John surgery.

The bad news for Baltimore is I would be very surprised if Bradish is sharp, or goes deep into the game. He made six rehab starts in the minors posting a 4.91 ERA.

Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He started slow this season in his comeback. But since June 10, he has a 2.55 ERA.

Boston is by far the more well-rounded team and has the superior bullpen. The Red Sox are 12 games above 500. The disappointing Orioles are 11 games below 500.

The Mets have won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 21-9. I don't see today's finale of this lob-sided series being any different.

The Mets are strengthening their grip on a playoff spot while the Braves continue to be one of the most disappointing teams in the majors this year.

New York starter David Peterson is 8-5 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 24 starts for the Mets this season.  Peterson has been his best in day games, too, with a 2.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven day game starts.

Atlantis starter Bryce Elder is 5-9 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 starts. He is 2-4 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Jacob deGrom has been scratched. Instead the Rangers are likely to turn to their bad bullpen for extended innings. This puts me on the Royals, who are playing much better than Texas and have a promising star rookie on the mound.

Lefty Noah Cameron is giving the Royals what they thought they would get from Cole Reagan this season. Cameron has been outstanding with a winning record and 2.47 ERA.

The Rangers have been at their worst against lefties. They are 10-22 versus southpaw starters. And it's not hard to understand why as they rank in the bottom-four against lefties in many major hitting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

The Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Rangers are just the opposite - 2-8 in their last 10 games.

Brady Singer can get hot now and then, but let's face it he's more of a journeyman-type pitcher.

Still, I would much rather have Singer than Angels starter Víctor Mederos, who has a 5.63 ERA and only 16 1/3 big league innings.

Singer has given up five earned runs in his last 23 innings. He has been mostly solid this season.

The Reds have won 5 more games than the Angels. They are the superior team and worth backing at this price.

My first look is to fade the Braves when they are on the road. Atlanta is 24-38 away from home. I don't like the Braves' chances in this game and the price is short enough to back the home Guardians, who are above .500 when playing at home

Atlanta starter Joey Wentz has a 5.03 ERA and a 1.44 ratio.

Cleveland is going with Slade Cecconi, whose ERA is nearly a run lower than Wentz's. Atlanta's offense is below average in all the major categories.

A big check to the Guardians' bullpen, too. Cade Smith has settled in as Cleveland's closer after being outstanding in a setup role and the Guardians' bullpen ERA is the sixth-lowest since June 1. The Braves' bullpen ERA ranks 22nd since June 1.

The Diamondbacks are not giving up. They are 7-2 in their last nine games. The Rangers lack that momentum. They have dropped 10 of their past 15 games.

Arizona is averaging the sixth-most runs per game. The Diamondbacks are very familiar with Rangers starter Merrill Kelly, who pitched for Arizona for the last 6 1/2 seasons until being traded to Texas at the trade deadline.

Kelly's last start did not go well. He gave up five hits and four runs in 4 1/3 innings in a 9-1 loss to Philadelphia. The Rangers have uncertainty in the back of their bullpen.

Zac Gallen has had a disappointing season, but he has strung together two consecutive good starts giving up three earned runs in 12 innings while beating the Rockies and A's on the road.

The Rangers rank 25th in runs and 28th in batting average. Nearly all of their batters have had disappointing seasons.

The price is low enough for me to get involved with the Giants, who have former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray going.

Ray has allowed more than two runs just once in his last eight starts while posting a 2.90 ERA during that stretch. He has a 2.58 home ERA.

The Padres can't match that on the mound. They are giving Nestor Cortes his second start since acquiring him from the Brewers. He’s logged just three starts this season due to an injury, posting a 1-1 record with a 7.11 ERA.

Dylan Cease has a big name because he gets a lot of strikeouts. He's more flash than substance, though, with a 4-10 record and 4.60 ERA. Cease hasn't been going deep into games either, failing to reach the sixth inning in any of his last four starts.

Brayan Bello is the opposite. Bello doesn't get too many strikeouts, but he is 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA.

Quietly, the Red Sox have maneuvered their way to being just three games out of being tied for the AL East lead. Boston has done this by going 25-10 in their last 35 games, including 8-2 in their last 10 games.

The Red Sox have won five of the last six times they've been underdogs.

The Twins were the biggest sellers - and sell-offs at the trade deadline. They clearly showed they are playing for next season. Their elite bullpen is gutted and their lineup is composed of many young players.

I don't like Minnesota's chances here in a pitching matchup of Noah Cameron versus Bailey Ober.

Cameron has been outstanding with a 2.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Unlike the Twins, the Royals are in the Wild Card chase, four games out of the last spot.

The lefty Cameron has made one start against the Twins. He allowed one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings and walked one and struck out eight. Minnesota is 8-13 versus southpaw starters.

Ober is having a terrible season with a losing record, 5.38 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He has made one start after missing more than a month because of a hip injury. Nothing looked improved as Ober allowed four runs on six hits in five innings against the weak-hitting Guardians.

Ober has started against the Royals 12 times in his career. He is 0-4 with a 5.37 ERA in those outings.

Maybe it's because they are a small market team. But Milwaukee sure doesn't seem to get a lot of respect. This is another example with the home Brewers favored by a much smaller number than I envisioned.

The Brewers own the top record in baseball at 70-44. They also have the best run difference at plus 127.

Milwaukee enters this series in peak form having won nine of its last 10 games, including the past six.

The Brewers are 36-20 at home. The Mets are 25-31 on the road.

The pitching matchup also greatly favors the Brewers. Mets starter Kodai Senga is on a cold streak. He has an 8.25 ERA during his last three starts. During this time frame, Senga has allowed 11 runs on 13 hits in 12 innings while walking 11 and serving up four home runs.

Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff was an excellent pitcher before undergoing shoulder surgery. Since coming back from that he has been absolutely dominant. Woodruff has made five starts and has a 2.22 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. He is striking out a career-best 11.8 batters per nine innings and walking a career-low 1.3 batters per nine innings.

After an embarrassing series against the Marlins, this is a good buy low spot on the Yankees in a pitching matchup of Max Fried against Patrick Corbin.

Fried, a lefty, is 12-4 with a 2.62 ERA. He is one of the top five pitchers in the American League. Corbin had been perhaps the worst starting pitcher in the majors for the past few seasons, but has pitched better this year. However, Corbin is still less than mediocre.

The Rangers are 9-18 against lefties this season, the second-worst winning percentage in the league. They have the worst OPS in the majors against lefty starters at .632 and have struck out nearly four times as often as they have walked. This includes an O-4 record when Josh Jung was not in the lineup. Jung is out with a left calf injury.

The Yankees greatly improved their bullpen at the trade deadline. They still have plenty of power even without injured Aaron Judge.

MLB Free Monday Play

Brewers minus $1.35 at Braves

The Braves will play at their third different site in four days with this home game after being in Cincinnati and at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee during the weekend. This is the Braves' first home game since July 23rd.

Atlanta is 4-11 in its last 15 home games. The disappointing Braves are 16 games below .500.

It's an awkward scheduling spot for the Braves made worse by having to take on the Brewers. Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball at 67-44.

The Brewers have a strong pitching edge going here with Quinn Priester facing Erick Fedde. Priester has a 2.48 ERA in his last five starts. Fedde shouldn't even be in the majors. He has a 12.09 ERA during his past six starts.

Fedde's overall numbers are hideous, too - 5.33 ERA and 1.50 ratio.

Don't look for the Red Sox to sweep the Astros. Not with lefty Framber Valdez facing Lucas Giolito and Houston having a bullpen edge.

Valdez is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Valdez is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six career appearances versus Boston spanning 23 innings. The Red Sox have a 24% strikeout rate against southpaws. The Astros' top bullpen arms are rested, including closer Josh Hader.

Giolito is not in good form and does not have a good history against Houston. Giolito has a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP during his last three starts spanning only 15 1/3 innings. Giolito is 2-6 with a 5.94 ERA in nine career starts versus Houston. Giolito's 4.84 ERA at Fenway Park is much higher than his road ERA.

The Red Sox bullpen carries a high fatigue rating having pitched nearly five innings yesterday. Closer Aroldis Chapman has pitched in each of the last two days.

Bad pitching and an inability to win on the road have made the Braves one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year. Atlanta managed to nip Cincinnati, 12-11, on Thursday. But I don't see the Braves repeating with another victory here.

Atlanta is 16 games below .500 on the road. Cincinnati is 32-25 at home. Atlanta is 3-9 in its last 12 games.

The Braves' porous pitching staff is giving up an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last eight games, not including a 1-0 loss to the Royals two games ago.

The pitching matchup again favors the Reds with Bryce Elder going against Brady Singer.

Elder is 4-7 with a 6.29 era and 1.61 ratio. Singer is 8-8 with a 4.60 era and 1.33 ratio. Singer was brilliant in his last start allowing only one run on three hits and one walk with eight strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings against the Rays this past Sunday.

Seth Lugo should be getting more respect here especially pitching against Atlanta's newly acquired Erick Fedde, The Cardinals finally had enough of Fedde following his last five starts - all losses - where he gave up 26 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. St Louis lost those games by a combined 31 runs.

So I'm surprised the Braves picked up Fedde. It's a low lay price to fade Fedde. Lugo has been consistently good the past couple seasons.  Lugo has a 2.48 home  ERA. The Royals have their two top relief pitchers rested.

Oh, yes, the Braves are terrible on the road with an 18-34 away mark.

The Tigers are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. Still, they are 10 1/2 games better than the Diamondbacks. I expect that gap to keep growing.

The Diamondbacks have signaled their intention to rebuild,  trading Josh Naylor. They might not have their top power hitter, Eugenio Suarez, either after he was hit on the finger by a pitch last night.

A number of promising Detroit hitters such as Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have been coming through for the Tigers.

Detroit also owns a strong pitching edge with Casey Mize facing Brandon Pfaadt, whose era is more than a full run higher then Mize.

It may seem strange on the surface that the Yankees are favored when they don't have injured Aaron Judge and the pitching matchup is Drew Rasmussen against rookie Cam Schlittler.

But the oddsmaker knows what he's doing and he has set a correct line here.

The Yankees are off a much-needed Sunday home win against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies. The Rays are really struggling away from home. They are 3-13 in their last 16 road games, including losing their last seven.

Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, but the Rays are severely limiting his innings. Rasmussen has pitched only 11 innings in his last four starts, never going into the fifth inning during this span.

The Rays are minus their two best middle infielders, Ha-Seong Kim and Brandon Lowe. Both are on the injured list.

Schlittler has shown potential. This will be his third big league start. He is averaging a strikeout per inning.

There is no Judge, but the Yankees have upgraded at third base acquiring lefty Ryan McMahon, a strong glove man and dangerous power hitter at Yankee Stadium. Giancarlo Stanton is back healthy to provide the Yankees with a dangerous DH.

The Rays are reeling on the road. Tampa Bay is 3-12 in it's last 15 away games, including losing their last six.

Not helping matters for the Rays are their two best middle infielders, Ha-Seong Kim and Brandon Lowe, both being on the injured list.

Cincinnati is 30-22 at home. The Reds have won three consecutive games.

I don't expect Rays starter, Shane Baz, to reverse these trends. Baz is in bad form. He has surrendered 15 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings. During this span, Baz has given up 27 hits and seven walks.

Red starter Brady Singer is a middle-of-the road type starter. He is acceptable and worth backing with the Reds opening as a road underdog.

Nick Kurtz had a game for the ages on Friday leading the A's to a 15-3 blasting of the Astros with four homers and eight RBIs, while going 6-for-6. That was last night.

Expect a completely different result today in a pitching matchup of lefty Jacob Lopez against Hunter Brown.

Lopez started fast, but the league has caught up to him. He has given up 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 18 innings. He has been tagged for at least one homer in each of these past four starts.

The Astros lead the league in batting average and OPS against lefties. They also rank 3rd in slugging percentage against southpaws.

Brown has become an elite pitcher this season with a 9-4 record, 2.57 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Houston has a rested Josh Hader to close things out if necessary.

The Braves are a near auto-fade when on the road. I don't like Atlanta's chances here against a hot Texas team that has won 9 of its last 11 games. Texas is 32-20 at home. The Braves are 18-32 on the road.

Texas starter, Kumar Rocker, has lived up to his high ceiling when pitching at home where he is 3-0 with a 1.84 era and 0.85 WHIP in five starts.

Atlanta starter, Grant Holmes, is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine road outings.

Excellent value to the underdog Mariners here. Seattle is a wild card team right now. The Angels are 10 games out of first place in the AL West and a likely seller come the trade deadline.

Lefty Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.13 ERA, but a 1.38 WHIP. Seattle is above average versus lefty pitching. The Mariners also rank first in batting average and home runs on the road. They are third in slugging percentage. Seattle is a much better hitting team away from T-Mobile Park.

Seattle starter Logan Evans is mediocre. However, the Mariners hold a huge bullpen advantage. The Angels rank in the bottom-five in on base percentage at home. The Angels also may be without slugger Jorge Soler, who is dealing with back problems.

During those rare periods when the Guardians put up runs, they are very dangerous. This is one of those times. Cleveland has scored six or more runs in six of its last seven games. This offensive improvement has helped the Guardians win 10 of their last 12 games. During this span, Cleveland is averaging 6.2 runs per game.

Cleveland's offense should stay hot facing Zach Eflin, who comes off the injured list to make his first July start holding a 5.95 era and a 1.44 ratio. Eflin doesn't figure to go too long and Baltimore's middle relief is vulnerable.

Guardians starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, has turned a corner giving up three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. He's given up more than two runs in just two of those starts. The Guardians have the deeper bullpen, too.

Nothing against lefty Carlos Rodon, who has pitched extremely well this season. But I don't believe the Yankees should be a road favorite against the Blue Jays. Not with Toronto pitching Kevin Gausman and being so hot.

The Blue Jays are 35-16 at home while the Yankees are just 500 on the road. Toronto is 16-4 in its  last 20 overall games. New York has a losing record during its last 16 games.

Toronto is 15-10 when facing southpaws. Toronto ranks 3rd in on-base percentage and 5th in batting average against lefties.

The Yankees bullpen is carrying a high fatigue rating. New York relievers worked 16 1/3 innings in their just concluded three-games series against the Braves. Yankees closer Devin Williams has pitched an inning in each of the last two games.

Nothing against Mets starter David Peterson. He's been very solid this season. But Peterson is trumped by Red starter Andrew Abbott, who has been fantastic. Abbott is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 16 starts this year. Cincinnati is 12-4 in his 16 starts this season for 75 percent.

Abbott has been very strong on the road, too. He is 4-0 with a 2.18 era and 0.87 WHIP in seven away starts this year.

The Reds average more runs per game than the Mets and have a higher batting average.

Texas hitters probably didn't want to see the All-Star break come up. The Rangers have been averaging 6.5 runs this month. However, I don't like the Rangers' chances against the Tigers here in a pitching matchup of Reese Olson versus lefty Patrick Corbin.

Olsen has improved in each of his three years in the majors. He has become a dependable starter this season with a 2.95 ERA. Detroit is 11 games above Texas won/loss-wise.

Corbin has been better than expected. But he remains a bottom tier starter, at best, with a 4.15 ERA. The Tigers rank in the top-five in many key statistical categories against lefties including batting average, OPS and slugging percentage.

Nothing against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez, but I like getting a plus price with the home Padres holding the superior bullpen and with Nick Pivetta on the hill.

The Padres are 14 games above .500 at home. Pivetta has contributed to that with a 2.30 home ERA. San Diego is 7-3 in his home starts. The Phillies are below .500 on the road.

San Diego has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.20. The Phillies rank 23rd in bullpen ERA at 4.37.

Philadelphia is 1-4 the past five times it has been a road favorite.

We have a wrong favorite here. The Braves have no business having higher juice against the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Atlanta is 16-30 on the road and 9-14 versus left-handed starters. The Braves are facing underrated southpaw Matthew Liberatore.

St. Louis is 28-18 at home. The Cardinals rank 12th in runs and 10th in batting average. The Braves are 23rd in runs and 21st in batting average.

Atlanta starter Grant Holmes is 4-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Liberatore is 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Liberatore should probably have a lower ERA since he gives up 0.7 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. None of his last four opponents have scored more than two runs during his starts. Liberatore has permitted just six earned runs during this four-game span in 24 innings.

The Twins are going for a three-game sweep of the Cubs. I don't see the Twins, a below .500 team, beating the 54-38 Cubs again.

Minnesota is likely to be without All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton, who was taken out of Wednesday's game with a hand contusion after being hit by a pitch. Buxton is the Twins' most dynamic player and just about their only base stealing threat.

The pitching matchup is Colin Rea, 6-3 with a 4.13 ERA, opposing Chris Paddack, 3-7 with a 4.64 ERA.

Paddack has been struggling giving up 21 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. Rea has yielded only three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings.

I don't trust young Twins pitcher David Festa against the No. 1 scoring team in baseball. The Cubs are averaging 5.4 runs per game, best in baseball. They also rate in the top-five in batting average, homers and OPS. Festa has a 5.48 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Cubs starter Cade Horton is coming off pitching seven shutout innings against Cleveland. The Cubs have a 2.47 bullpen ERA since the start of May, that's No. 1 in the majors during that time frame.

The Twins have a below average offense with little speed. They rank 20th in runs, 22nd in batting average and 26th in steals.

Nick Pivetta is one of the reasons why the Padres are 27-15 at home. Pivetta is 6-0 pitching in San Diego with a 2.55 ERA this year.

By contrast, Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.35 career road ERA. Kelly has a 3.43 home ERA this season compared to 3.69 on the road.

The Padres have a clear bullpen edge, too. They have the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.31. The Diamondbacks have the third-highest relief pitching ERA at 5.05.

Credit to the Marlins for winning 10 of their last 13 games. However, this is a bad spot and pitching matchup for Miami.

The Marlins haven't been on the road this month. They have a losing away record. Cincinnati is 24-19 at home.

I'm not a fan of Miami starter Janson Junk. He has been on the fringe of the majors since 2021. The Marlins are his fourth team. His career numbers are 3-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings. He's never pitched at Great American Ball Park either, one of the best hitting parks in the majors.

Reds starter Brady Singer is more consistent. He's compiled a 4-3 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP when pitching at Great American Ball Park. Singer is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two previous starts against the Marlins.

This is a low enough price for me to get involved with the Giants knowing I have Robbie Ray starting backed by a bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

The kicker is Ray and the Giants get to face Brandon Pfaadt. Pitching wins can be misleading. That's clearly the case with Pfaadt, who is 8-5. That record comes with a 5.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. 

Pfaadt hasn't fared well against San Francisco this season with an 0-3 record and 4.82 ERA. He has a lifetime 5.20 ERA when pitching at hitter-friend Chase Field.

Jose Berrios has a history of pitching much better at home and he's in tremendous form. Berrios hasn't allowed a run during his last two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Berrios' lifetime home ERA is one run lower than his road ERA.

The Yankees have surrendered an average of six runs a game during their last four games. They have huge offensive holes in the middle of their infield where Anthony Volpe is batting a puny .225 and D.J. LeMahieu looks washed-up. 

Yankees starter Will Warren has a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Warren's road ERA is 5.54. 

Toronto is averaging 6.5 runs in its last eight games with a number of their players enjoying breakout offensive seasons.

Giants starter Hayden Birdsong has been up and down this season. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has been bad all season, one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball.

San Francisco can back Birdsong with the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Given these factors, I like the Giants getting a plus price to beat Arizona.

Gallen is 5-9 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That already bad ERA jumps to 7.04 if you go by his last seven starts.

The Diamondbacks have the better offense, but are without dynamic injured Corbin Carroll. The Giants' offense should show better getting to play at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

If this pitching matchup were set for San Francisco, I wouldn't have gotten involved. But this game is in Arizona, which changes everything.

Logan Webb is dominant at home with a 2.62 ERA when pitching in San Francisco. On the road, though, that ERA shoots up to 4.04. The Diamondbacks can score, too, ranking third in runs and OPS and fifth in homers.

Arizona's Ryne Nelson has been better as a starter than a reliever. He also has pitched much better at home with a 2.25 ERA compared to 5.34 on the road.

Nelson has a lower bar than Webb as the Giants have a bottom-seven offense. San Francisco has scored only five runs in its last three games.

Michael Wacha lacks star power. He is consistent, though. You have to give him that. He has given up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 starts, never more than five runs in a game. He's averaging six strikeouts a game during his last five starts.

The Mariners are batting .221 at home, which is the lowest home batting average in the majors.

Seattle starter George Kirby isn't back to his pre-injury All-Star form of two seasons ago. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, having surrendered 38 hits in 36 2/3 innings.

Everything lines up here for the Rays, including line value, making this a very strong play.

The Rays have won 74 percent of their last 35 games going 26-9. The Orioles remain a huge disappointment. They've lost four of their last five games to drop to 34-46, the third-worst record in the American League.

Tampa Bay has a strong pitching edge here, too, with Rayn Pepiot facing regressing Tomoyuki Sugano.

Pepiot has a 1.64 ERA in his last six starts. The Rays are 6-1 when he's been a road favorite this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 career innings against Baltimore.

Pepiot is backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

Soft-tossing Sugano came to the majors this season after many years in Japan. The league has figured him out. Sugano has a 6.39 ERA with a 2.28 WHIP in his last three starts, spanning only 12 2/3 innings. He has yet to complete five innings during any of his last three starts. The Orioles are vulnerable in middle relief.

I was on the Diamondbacks Monday at a fair price and was rewarded with a rocking chair, 10-0, winner. I see no reason to get off the Diamondbacks today where the price is cheaper and the pitching matchup is just as good.

The White Sox have the second-worst record in baseball at 25-54. This includes a 2-10 record in their past dozen games. 

Arizona is 9-4 in its last 13 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 16 fewer games than the White Sox. 

Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. 

This is going to be a bullpen game for the White Sox, whose bullpen ERA is among the 12-worst.

I have a lot of confidence in Spencer Strider after his last two starts. I share no such confidence in Frankie Montas, who is set to make his season debut for the Mets today.

I expect the Braves to move their season record to 5-0 versus the cold Mets today. So I'm laying the road price with Atlanta. 

Strider is showing definite signs of returning to his elite status, allowing only one run during his past two starts spanning 12 innings. During this time span, Strider has a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio with his velocity being up. The Braves are 8-3 in their past 11 games. 

The Mets are struggling going 1-9 in their last 10 games with six of those losses being by four or more runs. 

I don't see Montas being a stopper. Montas was 4-8 last season with a 5.01 ERA after missing 2023. He's been out with a lat injury. Montas made six rehab starts in the minors and looked terrible with a 12.05 ERA. 

That doesn't bode well for him here, or the Mets.

I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, Walker Buehler nor Jack Kochanowicz, but the Red Sox are the superior team and have a way better bullpen. The price is low enough to back Boston.

I wouldn't rate Buehler ahead of many starters as he struggles to regain the ace dominance he showed with the Dodgers before injuries. Kochanowicz, though, is one of those pitchers. Kochanowicz is 3-8 and carries a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 ratio.

Boston's bullpen carries the sixth lowest ERA. Red Sox relievers are in great current form, too, with a 1.11 ERA and 0.90 ratio during their last 10 games. By contrast, the Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the majors at 5.30.

The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games. They've won three more games than the Angels this season despite playing in a tougher division.

The Mets are going through a tough stretch. They are 1-8 in their last nine games with six of these losses occurring by at least four runs. I don't see New York ending its slump today in a pitching matchup of Spencer Schwellenbach versus Paul Blackburn.

Schwellenbach has a career 1.93 ERA against the Mets in 28 innings. He has a 3.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season compared to Blackburn, who has a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. It doesn't speak well of the Mets' starting rotation that Blackburn is in it.

The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They just swept a 3-game series against the Mets last Tuesday-Thursday.

Quietly without a lot of hoopla, the Rays are only 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East. The Rays are 10-4 in their last 14 games, have nine more wins than the Orioles, are home and hold a pitching edge.

Given all of these advantages, I believe the price is low enough to back Tampa Bay.

Rays starter Taj Bradley remains intriguing. He does go hot and cold, though. Right now he's been more on than off giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Orioles' offense looks much better on paper. Baltimore ranks only 24th in runs despite playing in one of the top hitter's parks.

Bradley is backed by an elite Rays bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.08.

Getting the start for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers, who is freshly promoted from the minors. He had a 5.51 ERA - in the minors.

The Cardinals upset the Brewers on Saturday. But I like Milwaukee to come back strong today. They are home and hold pitching edges, both starting and bullpen. 

Milwaukee is much hotter than St. Louis.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Brewers still are 13-6 in their last 19 games. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven games.  

The pitching matchup is soft-tossing Miles Mikolas versus Quinn Priester. 

Mikolas is having his typical below-average season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Priester quietly has become an important contributor to the Brewers' starting rotation with a 2.35 ERA in his last seven games. 

The Cardinals' bullpen has a 4.69 road ERA. St. Louis closer Ryan Helsley has given up an earned run in each of his last four appearances.

The buy sign has finally flashed on for George Kirby. He seems to have turned the corner after coming off the injured list giving up four earned runs combined during his last two starts spanning 12 innings with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kirby has a lifetime 3.15 ERA, too, in 44 career starts at T-Mobile Park.

Kirby faces a Cleveland offense that ranks 24th in runs, batting average and OPS. Seattle has an elite closer, Andres Munoz.

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee was on the cusp of being an ace, but has regressed this season. He's been especially bad on the road with a losing record and 4.99 ERA. Another alarming thing about Bibee is he surrenders 2.5 home runs per nine innings when pitching on the road. Seattle ranks sixth in the majors in homers.

The Guardians' bullpen is showing wear and tear from the heavy work of past seasons ranking only 14th in ERA and among the bottom-10 in WHIP.

When we last came upon Eduardo Rodriguez he was enduring a four-game stretch of allowing 21 earned runs in 16 innings. That was back in late April and early-to-mid May. He's been on the injured list with a sore shoulder.

Since then, Rodriguez made one rehab start in the Arizona Complex League and was tagged for three runs in 4 2/3 innings. Those three runs came on three homers. Now Rodriguez is scheduled to go here against the Reds and Nick Lodolo.

Lodolo has a 3.10 ERA. He's giving up an average of 0.9 homers and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Lodolo held the Cubs, the No. 1 scoring team in the majors, scoreless in his most recent start going six innings. The Reds have a rested bullpen having been idle yesterday.

So not only do the home Reds have a starting pitching edge, but also a bullpen advantage. Rodriguez could be on a pitch count. Arizona relievers have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA at 5.25.

It's not like the Diamondbacks are so superior to the Reds either. They just have one more victory on the season than Cincinnati.

I think the price is fair to back a hot Framber Valdez with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen against what is another horrendous Pirates team.

Valdez is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts. He is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA in his last 10 starts. Houston is 5-0 in Valdez's last five starts. The Astros also have a rested Hader to close out the game if necessary. Hader is having another top-five closer season.

The Pirates are 22-38, 11 games worse than the Astros in the loss column.

Pittsburgh has some promising young pitchers. Veteran Mitch Keller once was one of them - a long time ago. Keller has become just a mediocre pitcher at best. Pittsburgh is 1-8 in Keller's last nine starts. Keller's career numbers at PNC Park are 15-28 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

The Pirates' offense is way down again this season ranking second-from-the-bottom in runs and homers. Pittsburgh is averaging only 2.8 runs in its last five games.

Don't let Charlie Morton ruin your Memorial Day. Fade him and take the Cardinals. The price is low enough to get the superior team with the better starting pitcher.

St. Louis is 30-23. Baltimore is 18-34. One reason for the Orioles' horrible season is Morton. Baltimore is 0-10 in his starts. Morton isn't exactly pitching in bad luck either with a 7.86 ERA and 1.76 ratio. Talk about a waste of $15 million. The Orioles certainly could have spent that money better than getting a washed-up 41-year-old.

Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Erick Fedde remains solid with a 3.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's giving up 0.8 home runs per nine innings compared to Morton, who has surrendered nine homers in 41 innings for an average of two per nine innings. Fedde is 2-0 this month with a 2.55 ERA.

Pittsburgh is going for its third straight win against the Brewers. I don't see the Pirates getting it. The Brewers are six games better than the Pirates and have the superior starting pitcher going with impressive rookie Logan Henderson facing Bailey Falter.

Henderson is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.81 ratio. The Pirates have the worst offense in the majors ranking among the bottom-three in runs, batting average, homers and OPS.

Milwaukee ranks 16th in runs and first in stolen bases. Falter has a 3.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He's due for regression. His lifetime ERA in the majors is 4.47 and he doesn't miss many bats with 39 strikeouts in 54 innings.

The White Sox upset the Rangers on Friday and I like them to do it again on Saturday in a pitching matchup of righties, rookie Jack Leiter versus Jonathan Cannon.

Texas could be the most disappointing offensive team in the American League. The Rangers have been especially bad against righties ranking 28th in on-base percentage, 27th in OPS and 26th both in batting average and slugging percentage.

Cannon has been excellent in three home starts this season with a 1.17 ERA.

The White Sox's offense is nothing to brag about either, but Leiter has pitched poorly in three of his last four starts giving up 14 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this span.

The Braves are coming on winning nine of their last 14 games. They hold a strong pitching edge here with Spencer Schwellenbach going against Brayan Bello.

Schwellenbach is an elite pitcher. He has a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Schwellenbach's ratio is even better in day games at 0.99.

Bello's 2.33 ERA is deceiving. He has a 1.41 WHIP and an expected ERA of above 5.00. Unlike Schwellenbach, Bello doesn't pitch well during the day with a 1.64 WHIP.

Boston is 1-4 in its last five games, surrendering an average of eight runs during this span.

I'm going to ride the Twins, who are the hottest team in baseball with a 12-game win streak. The Twins have a starting pitching edge and the price is low enough to back them.

Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez has a 1.96 road ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation pitcher closer to a No. 2 than a No. 4.

This could be a bullpen game for the Brewers, who are expected to open with Tobias Myers. The Brewers had to recall Myers from the minors quicker than they wanted because of a shoulder injury to Jose Quintana. Myers was struggling with a 1.53 WHIP.

The Twins are averaging 5.6 runs in their last five games. There's a good chance they get Byron Buxton back in their lineup. He passed concussion clearance.

Milwaukee has been shut out in three of its last four games. If you discount a 9-5 victory versus the Guardians, the Brewers have only managed 10 runs in their last seven games.

The Yankees often are overpriced. This is another example. Unlike the A's, who were idle on Thursday, the Yankees were in action for the sixth consecutive day with all these games being played at Yankee Stadium.

Now, though, the Yankees hit the West Coast for the first time this season. They have yet to play in the Pacific time zone. They also have never played at Sutter Park, the A's temporary home in Sacramento.

New York has excellent season-long offensive numbers. However, the Yankees' offense is less imposing with power hitting/speedster Jazz Chisholm on the injured list.

The A's have an underrated offense with a number of young, promising hitters. They should do well facing Will Warren, who shouldn't be in New York's starting rotation. He has a 5.65 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Warren is surrendering 1.3 home runs per nine innings, a dangerous number entering what could be the best hitting park in the American League.

Oakland starter Osvaldo Bido has bad numbers, mainly because of one terrible start against the Rangers. Other than that, though, he's been solid giving up two or fewer earned runs in five of his other six starts. I like the A's backend of their bullpen better than the Yankees, too, given the horrific struggles of Devin Williams.

Nothing fancy here. Just that the price is right to back the Mets, who are better than the Diamondbacks and have the superior starter going in Kodai Senga.

Senga has permitted just three runs during his past five starts. He has a 1.38 ERA. Arizona hitters are batting a combined less than .150 against Senga. The Mets have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the National League. 

Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.06 ERA. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has a 4.48 ERA compared to the Mets' relief pitchers, who have a 3.14 ERA.

There aren't going to be many times when I go against the Dodgers. But this is one of those rare instances. The price is right to back the improving Braves in a pitching matchup of rookie Roki Sasaki versus Spencer Schwellenbach.

Sasaki has tremendous upside. But he's learning to pitch in the majors right now. He's 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He has only 20 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings.

The Braves have started playing better winning nine of their last 13 games. They can do well facing a pitcher, who doesn't miss a lot of bats.

The biggest factor, though, why I like Atlanta here is Spencer Schwellenbach. He has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. If he's not elite, he's close to it. If the Dodgers have a vulnerability, it's going against excellent right-handed pitchers.

The Angels rank among the bottom-six in many major offensive categories, including batting average, runs, OPS and steals. Mike Trout, the Angels' leader in homers and RBI's, might not play because of a sore knee. 

And the Angels also are starting Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. 

The Tigers have the best record in the American League at 19-12. They are pitching a rejuvenated Casey Mize, who is backed by a deep bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the American League.

So, what's not to like about taking the Tigers here? Nothing. The price is right to back Detroit, whose offense has picked up averaging 5.5 runs in its last seven games.

The Phillies are only one game above .500. Blame that disappointing record on Aaron Nola. He stinks.

Nola has gone from a near-ace to one of the worst starters in the league. He's 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA. Nola has surrendered eight homers in 29 innings giving him a career-worst rate of 1.9 homers per nine innings. He also has been walking too many batters.

There isn't much wind forecast for today's game. However, Nola faces a Cubs offense that leads the majors in runs per game at 6.1. Chicago also is sixth in homers and ranks No. 2 in batting average, OPS and steals. The Cubs are 17-11.

Chicago is pitching Jameson Taillon, who has a 4.73 ERA but a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Taillon was rocked by the Diamondbacks in his first start. He has settled down giving up eight runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. Taillon has had at least six strikeouts in three of those four starts.

Framber Valdez is a two-time All-Star, who is rounding into his All-Star form. Valdez held the Padres to two runs in six innings during his last start six days ago. Now he draws the weak-hitting Royals.

Kansas City is last in the majors in homers and second-from-the-bottom in runs and OPS. The Royals' best player, Bobby Witt, is 1-for-12 lifetime against Valdez.

Josh Hader, the Astros' dominant closer, is rested. I see Valdez and Hader, if needed, dominating the Royals' weak offense.

Kansas City is starting Michael Wacha, who is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Current Houston batters are 10-for-24 against Wacha with six extra base hits.

Perhaps the Orioles' young talent is overrated. Whatever the case, Baltimore is off to a disappointing 9-14 start. The Orioles are in danger of being swept in their Beltway Series against the Nationals, especially with a pitching matchup of Cade Povich versus MacKenzie Gore.

Gore is the Nationals' best pitcher, an emerging star. Povich is the Orioles' worst pitcher. Povich isn't ready for the majors. He has a 6.38 ERA and a mind-blowingly bad 2.07 WHIP. Gore has a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while averaging 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

If the Orioles are the superior team right now they haven't shown it and they are at a huge pitching disadvantage.

The Mets are going for a three-game sweep of the Phillies in this early-start matchup. I don't see them getting it. In Zack Wheeler I trust.

It's rare to lay such a low price on the Phillies when Wheeler pitches. I'll take advantage of that.

Lefty David Peterson has become a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets. But he's not in Wheeler's elite class and he's facing a top-10 Phillies offense.

Peterson has a career 4.98 ERA in 10 lifetime appearances against the Phillies.

Philadelphia is 36-28 the last two years against lefty pitching.

I wish future Hall of Famers who are well past their prime and embarrassing themselves by staying in the majors would show some dignity and retire gracefully.

Not Justin Verlander.

The 42-year-old is now with the Giants. It hasn't been going well for him. Verlander is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in four starts.

The Angels know Verlander. He made three starts against the Angels last year and had a 7.36 ERA.

I'm not a huge fan of Angels starter lefty Yusei Kikuchi. But he's better than Verlander and coming off an excellent start against the Rangers where he gave up only one run on three hits in six innings.

San Francisco is 2-5 versus southpaws.

The Yankees' bats have cooled off. New York is averaging 3.8 runs in its last six games, exceeding four runs only once during this span.

I don't see the Yankees scoring much either facing Shane Baz, who can be dominant when healthy. Right now Baz is healthy. Baz has a 1.42 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP in three starts this season with a 27-to-four strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Yankees have one major weakness in their starting rotation - Carlos Carrasco. He gets the start here. The washed-up 38-year-old Carrasco has a 5.94 ERA.

There's a chance the Yankees could be minus Jazz Chisholm, who is facing a one-game suspension.

The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the home Blue Jays. The price is low enough to get involved with Toronto.

Toronto has a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. Seattle, meanwhile, had to go through its bullpen again going extra innings to defeat the Reds in Cincinnati on Thursday. Both teams' have excellent closers. But Seattle's Andres Munoz may be unavailable having pitched the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches.

I favor the Blue Jay's in the starting pitcher matchup, too, of Bryan Woo versus Bowden Francis. Woo is much better when he throws at his pitcher-friendly home park. Woo gave up four earned runs in six innings to the Giants in his first and only road start this season. He has never pitched at Toronto. The Blue Jays are 7-3 at home.

Francis is a strong home park pitcher. He's 5-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at  Rogers Centre.

Not only have the Guardians been playing better than the Orioles, but they have a vastly superior starting pitching going here.

Tanner Bibee isn't elite, but he isn't far away. I have him as a "B" tier pitcher with the chance to rise to "A" level status this season. Bibee is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors.

I'm not nearly as high on Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano, a soft-tosser who only has five strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Guardians are 6-2 in their last eight games despite losing to Baltimore on Wednesday. The Orioles are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

I can sum up my handicap to the Angels in two words: Patrick Corbin. He's making his second start for the Rangers.

I don't understand why Texas signed Corbin. Since 2020, Corbin's won-lost record is 33-70. His ERA the previous four seasons is 5.62, 5.20, 6.31 and 5.82. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season after giving up three earned runs on five hits, including a homer, and two walks in four innings against the Cubs during his first start this year.

The Angels are 9-7. They appear improved. They rank 10th in runs and have hit the third-most homers.

Texas is 2-5 in its past seven games. The Rangers are 28th in runs. They are facing Jose Soriano, who I consider the Angels' best pitcher. Soriano is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first three starts. Lifetime against the Rangers, Soriano is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games.

The combination of Hunter Brown starting and a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen puts me on the Astros.

Brown has shown great  promise. This could be the year he breaks out in a big way. Brown is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in three starts this season. Hader is a top-five closer, good for two innings if needed.

Erick Fedde, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, goes for St. Louis. He has a 4.20 ERA this season.

It's imperative for the Rays they get off to a fast start with 19 of their first 22 games at home. So far that hasn't happened as Tampa  Bay is 6-8.

However, the Rays are off a big 8-3 Sunday win against the Braves. Tampa Bay's hitters are starting to come around and they hold a pitching edge here with Shane Baz going against Boston's Tanner Houck.

I like Rays manager Kevin Cash and I like his pitchers. That includes Baz, who is 1-0 with a 1.39 ERA. Baz has a 2.03 ERA in his last five starts going back to last season. Health, not talent, is the concern with him.

Boston has a losing record, too.  The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games. They are averaging two runs per game in their last seven games. Rafael Devers is hitless in his past 10 at bats. Alex Bregman is batting .190 during his last six games.

Houck is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA.

So the price is low enough to back the Rays.

Monday Free Play

Royals plus $1.27 at Yankees

What is Carlos Carrasco doing on a big league roster? Worse, what  is he still doing in the Yankees' starting rotation?

I don't care how many pitching injuries the Yankees have, they certainly can do better than Carrasco.

The 38-year-old Carrasco has given up 10 runs in 12 innings for a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. The washed-up righty holds a 5.39 ERA for the last five years. His ERA the past two seasons was 5.64 and 6.80.

Opposing Carrasco is Seth Lugo. I don't quite buy into Lugo's All-Star status, but he's certainly a solid pitcher. He has a 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Lugo also has a strong history against the Yankees with a 5-2 record, to go with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings.

The Yankees rank in the top-three in runs and homers. However, they've cooled off. Only once in their last seven games have they scored more than four runs. Aaron Judge hasn't homered during his last eight games.

Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, meanwhile, have started to heat up for the Royals.

The backend of Kansas City's bullpen has been better than the Yankees' top relief pitchers, too. Closer Devin Williams has looked terrible for New York so far.

The Mets' Tylor Megill is an emerging pitcher. Toronto's Kevin Gausman is on the decline. The Mets are the superior team and at home. So I believe the price is more than fair to back New York.

The Blue Jays are off to a 5-2 start. Keep in mind, though, four of those victories were achieved against the Nationals. All of Toronto's games have been at home, too, until now.

Megill opened the season beating Houston, 3-1, this past Friday. He has a 1.80 ERA following that game. Toronto's hitters are batting only .206 against Megill in a combined 34 at bats.

The Mets hold a bullpen advantage on Toronto, too. New York relievers have a 1.64 ERA compared to Toronto's bullpen ERA of 5.47.

New York is averaging six runs a game during its past three games.

The Diamondbacks got past the Yankees, 7-5, on Tuesday in their first road game of the season. But the combination of going from the west coach to the east coast and a pitching matchup of Zach Gallen versus lefty Carlos Rodon is going to catch up to the Diamondbacks today.

Gallen did not look good on his opening day start against the Cubs allowing four runs in four innings permitting four hits and four walks. That was at home where he historically pitches much better.

Now Gallen faces the Yankees with their torpedo bats. New York has scored 41 runs in four games. 

Rodon, contrary to Gallen, was sharp in his first start. He held the Brewers to one run in 5 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. 

Arizona had a losing record against southpaws last season and are 1-2 against them this season.

Sense of urgency. Home field. Superior starting pitcher. Fair line price. Those are my reasons for liking the Yankees to beat the Dodgers in Game 3 down 0-2 in the World Series.

The Yankees could have won both of the first two games. They were within one out of winning Game 1 and had their chance in the ninth inning of Game 2. 

I'd really like the Yankees' chances if Aaron Boone got lost and didn't make the game. Joking aside and ignoring Boone's terrible overmanaging, everything sets up for New York in this Game 3 spot. 

Besides a sense of urgency and getting to play at home for the first time in the series, the Yankees hold a huge starting pitching edge with a matchup of Walker Buehler vs. Clark Schmidt. 

Buehler hasn't overcome his serious arm injury history. He was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. He's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in the postseason. Buehler is forced to pitch on the edges with his fastball no longer effective. Playing the Yankees is a bad match for him because New York hitters are patient and know how to take a walk. 

Schmidt had a fine season posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

I don't expect Blake Treinen to pitch unless it's a save situation for LA. Treinen threw a total of 55 pitches during Friday and Saturday's games. 

The Dodgers have proven their superiority against the Mets during this NLCS building a 3-1 lead. LA has outscored New York, 27-2, in those victories.

Now the Dodgers are aiming for the kill shot with their best pitcher, veteran Jack Flaherty, on the mound opposing southpaw David Peterson.

LA is peaking at the perfect time going 5-1 in its last six games winning those games by an average of 5.1 runs.  

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are superstars and Flaherty is in excellent form. He threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Mets this past Sunday holding New York to two hits in a 9-0 victory.

The Dodgers have posted a .795 OPS against lefty pitching this season. More bad news for Peterson is he can't count on help from a gassed and vulnerable Mets bullpen.

Getting out of New York was the best thing to happen to the Guardians. With their season on the verge of elimination, I see the Guardians winning this Game 3 with the scene shifting to Cleveland.

It was like the Guardians were psyched out playing at Yankee Stadium. They left 11 men on base and committed two errors, one on an infield pop-up, in a 6-3 Game 2 loss this past Tuesday. 

Being idle on Wednesday and now home at Progressive Field for Thursday's game, is huge for Cleveland. I doubt the fat-and-happy Yankees, up 2-0 in the series, can match the Guardians' intensity and home motivation. 

I rate Cleveland with the pitching edge, too, in a starting pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. savvy veteran Matthew Boyd. 

The 33-year-old Boyd had a 2.72 ERA in 40 innings. He's well-rested. Cleveland rates a bullpen edge, too, and it has its top relievers rested. Emmanuel Clase led American League relief pitchers in saves with 47. 

It says a lot about how thin the Dodgers' starting pitching is that Walker Buehler draws another playoff start. He was hammered by the Padres in Game 3 of LA's earlier playoff series giving up six runs on seven hits in five innings.

This result isn't surprising since Buehler isn't close to being the dominant pitcher he was following two elbow surgeries and a hip injury. Buehler had a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. His road ERA was even worse at 6.88.

This is a stark contrast to how well Mets starter Luis Severino has pitched at home. Severino has a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this season.

The Dodgers' bullpen brings no fear to the Mets, who are averaging 5.5 runs at home in the postseason.

Jazz Chisholm is a great talent. But he might not be the smartest player around. He said the Royals got lucky after Kansas City beat the Yankees this past Monday night to even this playoff series at 1-1.

Just added motivation for the Royals, who are playing in their first postseason home game since 2015.

I like the Royals at this price being home and in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. Seth Lugo.

Schmidt will be making his first playoff appearance of the season. He does not have a good postseason track record with an 0-2 record and 11.75 ERA in three appearances during the 2022 playoffs. The Royals are better offensively when playing at home.

Lugo had an All-Star season. He has a 1.42 ERA in four playoff appearances spanning 6 1/3 innings. Lugo was 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season. He stymied the Yankees when he faced them on Sept. 10 pitching seven scoreless innings giving up just three hits with 10 strikeouts. Aaron Judge and Chisholm are a combined 1-for-19 against Lugo.

This comes down to not trusting Aaron Nola on the road, nor having faith in the Phillies bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA since July 1.

Nola has a 3.79 road ERA compared to 3.29 at home this season. This is similar to his career mark of a 4.21 away ERA compared to 3.21 ERA at home. Nola can't expect to get bailed out by a Phillies bullpen that has surrendered 12 earned runs in six innings during this series.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their five playoff games.

New York is pitching Sean Manaea. The Mets are 15-4 in Manaea's last 19 starts.