| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres +144 | 3-5 | Win | 144 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
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Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin. But perception doesn't fit reality here. Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form. Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them. The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts. Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.
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| 07-14-17 | Giants -105 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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Yes, it's a little disconcerting to lay a small road price with the Giants. But this is the game to do it in. The Giants are the better team and they have the superior pitcher going in a matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Clayton Richard. Cueto isn't elite anymore, but he's better than what he's shown this season. He's due for improvement against this weak hitting Padres team, which ranks last in runs and batting average. He's also pitching on his normal four day's rest. San Francisco is 21-6 the past 27 times when Cueto has pitched on four day's rest. The Giants' morale should be up with Madison Bumgarner slated to pitch this weekend. The Giants are a prideful team. The Padres are in clear rebuild mode. Cueto is a crafty veteran whose style should prove puzzling to San Diego's many young hitters. Cueto is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 career starts versus San Diego. Richard is who he is, a below average starter with a 4.66 ERA. Richard has close to a 4.00 career ERA against the Giants.
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| 07-09-17 | Marlins v. Giants -131 | 10-8 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Giants on the road. The Giants have their best pitcher, Johnny Cueto, going against Jose Urena, who has been pitching decently but is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. Cueto is healthy after being scratched before his last start this past Thursday against the Tigers due to an inner-ear infection. The Giants desperately need this game, while the Marlins are going to be sellers at the trade dealine. Cueto has pitched better at home. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts and usually is at his best during day games where he sports a lifetime 2.70 ERA. The Marlins are 19-25 on the road. The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series. They are swinging the bats better, though, and have won seven of their last 11.
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| 07-09-17 | White Sox v. Rockies -121 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
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The Rockies have a much better lineup than the White Sox and are home facing a pitcher who has never pitched at Coors Field. So I'm going to get behind Kyle Freeland and back the Rockies against the White Sox, who are 19-30 on the road and have a losing mark in day games. The White Sox are 3-11 the last 14 times they've been on the road facing an opponent with a winning home record. Colorado is 25-18 at Coors and 22-13 in day action. White Sox starter Carlos Rondon has a tendency to be wild. This is just his third appearance of the season as he makes his way back from bicepts bursitis in his pitching arm. Freeland is a rookie who has looked good enough to be considered Colorado's second or third-best starter. He is 3-0 with a 2.95 in three interleague starts beating the Twins, Mariners and Indians - three teams all better than the White Sox.
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| 07-07-17 | Padres v. Phillies -120 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
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I see the Phillies playing better during the second half of the season. I'm going to back them here with their promising rookie, Nick Pivetta, on the mound. The Phillies have some good young hitters, who haven't performed up to expectations this season. Expect better things from Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who are beginning to step up their game. Pivetta was outstanding in his last start this past Sunday against the Mets. He held the Mets to one run in seven innings. But the biggest reason I like the Phillies' side at this price is a fade on the road Padres and their starting pitcher, Clayton Richard. The Padres are 14-27 away from Petco Park. They are 7-20 the past 27 times they've been on the road going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Padres might even be feeling a bit fat and happy after winning a road series against the Indians. Richard has never defeated the Phillies. He's 0-4 against them. Richard is in terrible form allowing 12 runs in his past two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Richard has a 4.85 ERA on the season, which stretches to 4.95 when he pitches in the evening.
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| 07-06-17 | MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -148 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
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Michael Wacha is pitching his best ball of the season. Tom Koehler is dreadful with a terrible road history. So the choice is simple here - and the price isn't sky high to back the Cardinals. The Marlins are 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts and 2-7 during his past nine road starts. Koehler's road ERA is 4.65 during the last three years compared to 3.65 at Marlins Park. He has been so bad this season that the Marlins sent him down to the minors. Koehler resurfaced for a start this past Saturday against the Brewers. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up seven earned runs on six hits and two walks, including a homer. I'm surprised the Marlins are giving him another shot. Wacha, meanwhile, is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past three starts. He struck out a season-high nine in a 2-1 win against the powerful Nationals this past Saturday. Wacha threw a four-hit, six-inning shutout against the Nationals. The Marlins are 17-24 on the road. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts versus opponents with a sub .500 record. The Cardinals should have Jedd Gyorko, their leading hitter, back in the starting lineup.
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| 07-05-17 | Giants +165 v. Tigers | 5-4 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
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I'll take the Giants at this price. San Francisco is playing much better winning six of its last seven. The Giants' power - dormant all season - has finally started to emerge. Veterans Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are showing signs of coming around. Tigers starter Daniel Norris has looked terrible in his past two starts giving up 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, four walks and three homers. Detroit is 2-6 in Norris' last eight home starts. The Giants have underachieved all season, but the Tigers aren't playing well losing 11 of their last 16. Ty Blach pitched well when he first entered San Francisco's rotation. Then he went through a slump. The buy sign is back on Blach after his last start where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory last Wednesday. The Tigers have never faced Blach. Detroit could be without its most feared hitter as Miguel Cabrera left yesterday's game due to tightness in his left hip.
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| 07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -148 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
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All aboard. Tickets please. The Homer Bailey fade train is ready for departure and I'm on board again. This is close to my limit on laying a price, but it's worth it to go against Bailey, who has shown nothing since returning from elbow surgery. This is Bailey's third start. He's given up 14 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings during his first two starts. Even when he was in his prime, Bailey struggled against the Rockies with a career 4.43 ERA in seven starts. Now Bailey takes his turn at Coors Field. It's not going to be pretty. The Rockies have won eight of their last 10 at Coors. Their starter, Kyle Freeland, has pitched better at home with a 3.21 ERA compared to 4.35 on the road. Freeland, unlike Bailey, can be counted on to go at least six innings since he's done that in 11 of his 13 starts. The Reds have dropped 17 of their last 23 games. They could be missing sparkplug Billy Hamilton, who is dealing with a stiff lower back.
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| 07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
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Jeff Locke is a near auto-fade as long as the price isn't sky high. The combination of backing Adam Wainwright at home while going against Locke puts me on St. Louis. The Cardinals have started to play better winning six of their last eight. They have a winning record versus southpaw starters. Locke, a lefty, has yet to win in six starts this season. He has been terrible with a 5.52 ERA. Locker has a 4.98 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Wainwright almost always is good at home. That's certainly been the case this season where he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts at Busch Stadium. Wainwright has a career 2.37 ERA against the Marlins, too. St. Louis has won 71 percent of Wainwright's past 51 home starts.
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| 07-03-17 | Orioles -106 v. Brewers | 1-8 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
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Call it a strong hunch. But I see regression coming for the overacheiving Brewers while the Orioles, their confidence and morale up after a Sunday win against Tampa Bay, make a move starting with this opening game of their seven-game road trip that takes them into All-Star break. The Brewers have to fill in for injured Chase Anderson. They are going to give lefty reliever Brent Suter a shot here. Don't expect much. Suter had one previous start this season. That came on June 13 against the Cardinals on the road. He gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Orioles are starting veteran southpaw Wade Miley. I'm not a big fan of Miley, but the Brewers do have a losing record against lefty starters and the Orioles are 6-1 during Miley's last seven interleague starts.
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| 07-02-17 | Twins +128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
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What we get with the underdog Twins is this: A team that owns the second-best road mark in the majors and has won 18 of its last 27 away games. We also get the opportunity to go against Royals starter Travis Wood at a plus price. You mean that Travis Wood, the long-time National Leaguer trying to keep his career afloat as a reliever in the American League? Yep, same guy. Wood hasn't started since 2015 when he was with the Cubs. He's been buried in the Royals bullpen where he sports a 6.28 ERA and a losing record. The Royals are short on pitching after yesterday's doubleheader so they are attempting to prop up Wood. The Twins are throwing Hector Santiago. Boh starters are southpaws. The Twins have the better record versus lefty starters than Kansas City. The Royals have dropped seven of their last 10 home games when going against a southpaw starter. Minnesota also has defeated Kansas City in nine of the past 12 meetings. I don't consider Santiage more than a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. But he's fresh. He only got to work two innings in his last start this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. The Twins have the better closer, too. Bottom line, though, is fading Wood with a strong road team.
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| 07-02-17 | Phillies +147 v. Mets | 7-1 | Win | 147 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
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The Mets have managed to nip the Phillies by one run during each of the last two days. There's too much value to pass on the Phillies today in a pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta versus Rafael Montero. Both have ERA's well above 5.00, but I like Pivetta's potential much. Pivetta was blasted by the Diamondbacks at Arizona in his last start. There's no shame in that with the way the Diamondbacks have played and hit in the desert this season. Before that game, Pivetta had allowed three runs in his previous two starts spanning 13 innings with a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Mets' less than awesome lineup is without Michael Conforto and Neil Walker. Both are on the DL. It wouldn't be surprising if other regulars were rested today. Pivetta has the element of surprise on his side, too, as the Mets have yet to face him. Montero, on the other hand, has a 12.00 ERA in five appearances versus the Phillies. The Mets aren't likely to have closer Addison Reed available because he's pitched each of the last three days. The Mets have pulled within 8 1/2 games of the NL-East leading Nationals. The Mets play at the Nationals for a three-game series beginning Monday so their focus may not be 100 percent on this game.
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| 07-01-17 | Marlins v. Brewers -128 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
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The Brewers lead the NL in homers and have the superior pitcher going in Zach Davies. Ryan Braun should be back in Milwaukee's lineup, too, after resting yesterday. |
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| 07-01-17 | Cubs -112 v. Reds | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
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Even though the Cubs lost 5-0 in the series opener yesterday, they have owned the Reds in Cincinnati winning 14 of the past 18 times. The Cubs are 8-1 following a loss. I expect them to bounce back here against rookie Jackson Stephens, who is making his major-league debut. Stephens was 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in Triple A this season. I'd be surprised if Stephens gets another start for a long time as this looks like a one-shot, desperation spot for the Reds. The Cubs have a strong bridge to closer Wade Davis. Chicago starter Eddie Butler should be counted on to get through six innings. Butler has a 1.00 ERA during his last two starts. He held the Nationals - the No. 2 scoring team in the majors - scoreless in his last start going five innings at Washington this past Monday. The Reds are far worse than the Nationals, losers of 15 of their last 20 games.
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| 06-28-17 | Mets -101 v. Marlins | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
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Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price. Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings. Matz has two career starts versus the Marlins and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA.
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| 06-28-17 | Rays v. Pirates -123 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
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In Nova we trust. Ivan Nova has been very good for Pittsburgh all season. Nova, not Gerrit Cole, is the Pirates' best pitcher. Nova has been especially strong at home with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts this season. It has been a disappointing year for the Pirates so far, but they have stepped up their play recently going 9-7 in their last 16 games. I think this is a cheap home price to lay with Nova facing Blake Snell, who is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight starts for Tampa Bay. Snell also doesn't go deep into games, putting the vulnerable Rays bullpen into play probably earlier than usual. Snell has been so bad the Rays sent him to the minors. Now he's back up. Don't expect much. |
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| 06-25-17 | Mets v. Giants -134 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
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The record shows Matt Moore to be 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA. His Giants have lost 11 of 12 and are in danger of being swept at home by the Mets. So why get involved with the Giants especially when laying a mid-sized price? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. There's a reason why the Giants are favored here. Moore pitches much better at home and in day games. His road ERA is 8.39. At AT&T Park his ERA is 3.07. Moore has a 3.23 ERA in day games. His ERA at night rises to 8.02. I also like what I saw from Moore during his last start. That was at Atlanta this past Tuesday. Moore allowed three runs in seven innings with six strikeouts and one walk in getting the victory in a 6-3 win. Moore was shelled in his prior start before beating the Braves, but that came at Coors Field. The Mets have swept just one series this season. They caught the Giants in a bad spot during the first two games of the series because San Francisco had to fly back from Atlanta late Thursday following a long rain delay. The Giants are settled in now and embarrassed about their poor season. This is a crucial homestand for them. The biggest thing the Giants have going today is facing Rafael Montero. The Mets are down several starters so they're forced to bring Montero in from the bullpen to make a spot start. Montero is dreadful. He's lucky to only have a 6.49 ERA considering he's given up 36 hits and 19 walks in just 26 1/3 innings.
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| 06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres -102 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
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I once liked Anibal Sanchez. But that was back in his prime when he pitched for the Marlins. The 33-year-old Sanchez has been with the Tigers the past five seasons. His ERA was 4.99 two years ago. It was 5.87 last year. This season it's 9.35. Detroit has lost seven consecutive games, the most losses the Tigers have suffered in a row all season. The Padres are one of the worst teams in the majors. But they are a .500 club at home and the Tigers definitely are worth fading right now. Sanchez had been so bad in 11 relief appearances, the Tigers shipped him to the minors. This is his second start since returning to Detroit. The Tigers are 3-11 in Sanchez's past 14 road starts. Padres starter, 24-year-old Dinelson Lamet, is an intriguing rookie with tremendous stuff. He has 37 strikeouts in 24 innings and will be making his sixth big league start. Command and giving up the long ball have hurt him. But the Tigers have never seen Lamet, who will be helped throwing in spacious Petco Park. The Tigers remain without injured Victor Martinez, who isn't scheduled to play again until Tuesday because of an irregular heart beat.
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| 06-23-17 | Mets +106 v. Giants | Top | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
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There are many reasons to like the underdog Mets here. Situation, pitching matchup and the possibility the Giants are going to be without their two best offensive players head the list. Let's begin with the spot. It's terrible for the Giants. They had to play a night game in Atlanta Thursday night, losing 11-10 . The game was delayed nearly 1 1/2 hours because of rain. So the Giants didn't get home from the long journey until this morning. They've been on the road for eight days. Not only are they going be down physically, but their focus and concentration figure to be off, too. It was unfair the Giants had to play a night game, not a day game on Thursday, knowing they had to return home to play tonight. Things are made worse for them by the long rain delay. Because of this, there's the strong chance the Giants will rest star catcher Buster Posey, who has played 10 straight days. San Francisco also likely is to be missing Eduardo Nunez. He's been dealing with a hamstring injury and could go on the DL. Nunez is second to Posey in team batting and has 17 steals. No other Giant has more than six steals. The Mets have been in California having just wrapped up a three-game series with the Dodgers. The Mets have a better road record than home mark. San Francisco is four games below .500 at home. The pitching matchup is Seth Lugo versus Ty Blach. Lugo is no Tyler Pill. In other words, he's not a stiff, but a below-the-radar, underrated pitcher who is overlooked because he's been out with an elbow injury and the Mets are loaded with good, young arms. This will be Lugo's third start of the season since returning from injury. He has a 2.63 ERA. The Giants rank last in the majors in runs scored and second-to-last in homers. I'm expecting a strong performance from Lugo. Blach started out well in replacing injured Madison Bumgarner. Lately, though, the opposition has adjusted to Blach as he's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts. The weather forecast is for wind to blow out to left field at around 15 mph making right-handed Yoenis Cespedes the most dangerous hitter in the game.
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| 06-22-17 | Cubs -122 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
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Granted, Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 mph from 93.8 last year. But Arrieta still rates a strong edge against Marlins starter Jeff Locke and the defending world champions still are much superior to the Marlins. Arrieta has a good track record versus Miami with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts. He'll be helped pitching at Marlins Park, a pitcher's park. Locke may be the worst player ever to appear in an All-Star game. He's 0-2 with a 4.58 in four starts this season after coming off the DL. The southpaw is 1-5 lifetime against the Cubs with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances, including 11 starts. Wildness is an issue with Locke and the Cubs draw the most walks versus lefties of any team. It's one of the reasons why the Cubs have won 63 percent of their games against lefty starters this season.
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| 06-22-17 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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I put Minnesota's Nik Turley at the head of my list of worst starting pitchers. The 27-year-old journeyman has been with nearly half of the organizations in the majors leagues and that's not an exaggeration. It's amazing Turley still is in the Twins' starting rotation. Fading Turley at this low lay price is a gift. White Sox starter Jose Quintana is respectable. He's coveted in the trade market. Quintana is in decent form, too, with a 3.12 ERA in three starts this month. Turley has made two starts. He's been hammered in both of them by the weak-hitting Giants and Indians. His ERA is 12.46. Opponents are batting a mind-boggling.436 against him. The White Sox should have some motivation trying to avoid a series sweep. The Twins haven't swept an opponent at home since hosting the Royals to start the season. Minnesota is eight games under .500 at home this season, dropping 10 of their last 14 at Target Field.
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| 06-21-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Pirates have halted the Brewers' momentum winning the first two games of this series at Miller Park. Milwaukee has left a staggering 34 runners on base during the series. Look for things to change today in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Junior Guerra. I'm not a fan of Williams, who has a 5.16 ERA on the season. His road ERA is nearly 5.00 in seven away appearances, including four starts. Guerra is below-the-radar. He's the Brewers' second-most consistent pitcher. Opponents are batting only .191 against him and he has a 2.84 ERA on the year. Guerra has a lifetime 1.42 ERA versus Pittsburgh in four appearances, including three starts. The Brewers have a strong track record when Guerra pitches against sub .500 opponents winning nine of the last 11 times. The Pirates could be without starting catcher Franciso Cervelli. He missed yesterday's game due to flu-like symptoms. The Brewers have dominated the Pirates at home through the years, winning 72 percent of their last 87 home games against them.
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| 06-20-17 | Tigers +137 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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The Mariners aren't going to keep winning relying on Mike Zunio to hit homers, Taylor Motter to perform like a starting shorstop and Ariel Miranda to keep pitching above his skill level especially with Nelson Cruz in a slump and Jean Segura still not back in action. I see value with the underdog Tigers here and a buy sign on Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has dropped far from his days as a very good pitcher for the Nationals. But he's below-the-radar right now having given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Miranda, on the other hand, has pitched better than expected. The lefty's regression, though, is beginning to kick in. Miranda was hit hard by the Twins during his past start giving up six runs on 10 hits in four innings, including surrendering three homers. The Tigers are 10-7 against southpaw starters this season.
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| 06-19-17 | Nationals -108 v. Marlins | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
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The Nationals have won 12 of their last 15 road games, but are coming off a loss to Jacob deGrom yesterday. Look for the Nationals to bounce back against the Marlins today and a much weaker pitcher, southpaw Justin Nicolino. Washington ranks among the top four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Nicolino is more pitcher than thrower heavily relying on location to have any chance of success. He figures to be rusty having not pitched since May 30 because of a bruised index finger on his pitching hand. Even at his best, Nicolino is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. The Marlins are 1-11 the past 12 times Nicolino has gone against an opponent with a winning record. His career record at Marlins Park is 2-6 and he is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in four games, including three starts, versus the Nationals lifetime. Washington is 7-4 against lefty starters this season. I much prefer Washington starter Tanner Roark, who is a legitimate No. 3 type starter. Roark draws a Marlins lineup still missing the starting left side of their infield with Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria out. The Nationals' lone weakness is a vulnerable bullpen that has lacked a consistent closer. That may change with the emergence of Enny Romero, who hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 appearances spanning 12 innings. The Marlins are having problems with their bullpen, too. They blew leads of four runs and two runs during the weekend against the Braves. The Nationals are a much more dangerous hitting club than Atlanta. |
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| 06-18-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Orioles | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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Baltimore has lost eight of its last nine, is down its two top relief pitchers, power-hitting first baseman Chris Davis and is pitching Ubaldo Jimenez. So, year, I like the Cardinals at this reasonable lay price. Jimenez should be left in long relief. He's not a legitimate starter anymore as proven with a 7.71 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been tagged for 11 homers in less than 40 innings, The Orioles are minus closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. Lance Lynn is a candidate for Comeback of the Year honors. He has a 2.69 ERA after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. He has been highly consistent, limiting foes to a .189 batting average.
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| 06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
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I don't believe Mike Clevinger should be laying this high of a road price. Teams are starting to hit Clevinger more as they learn about him. This will be Clevinger's seventh start of the season. He has allowed five homers in his last three games and his ERA is up to 4.09. Clevinger has a 4.26 ERA in three lifetime starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Aadlberto Mejia is making his eighth start. Mejia had a bad outing in his last start against the Mariners, which blew up his ERA. However, the southpaw had given up three or fewer runs in his first seven starts. The Indians have a losing record versus lefty starters.
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| 06-16-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
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Nothing against Steven Matz, a young pitcher I like. But the Mets are going to get smoked here. The Mets are down their starting middle infield - Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker - plus outfielder Juan Lagares. The Nationals rank in the top four in a number of mjaor offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers, and they Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer may be the best right-hander in baseball. He's in great form, too, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last four starts with a 48-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Scherzer has a strong history versus the Mets, too, with a 2.39 ERA in 13 appearances. Matz is coming off an elbow injury. This is just his second start of the season. He's stepping way up in class having faced the Braves in his season debut this past Saturday. The Nationals have won nine of their last 11 road games. They are 22-7 in Scherzer's last 29 road starts. Washington has dominated the Mets at Citi Field also winning 43 of the past 57 times there.
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| 06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -128 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
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To make this play more palpable we have to knock down several perceptions. The first being the Angels can't win minus Mike Trout. Not true. They are 9-7 without him, including winning five of their last seven. The second is the Royals are hot. Yes, they've won four in a row. Those victories have come, however, against the Padres and Giants. Those two teams have the second and third-worst records in the majors. The third is laying a price with Ricky Nolasco starting. I get that. Nolasco is mediocre. He's lost his last five starts. But he hasn't pitched poorly during those outings giving up three runs or fewer in three of them. He held the Astros, a much stronger offensive team than the Royals, to two runs in seven innings during his last start. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in the American League so Nolasco isn't exactly going up against the '27 Yankees. Nolasco's mediocrity trumps Royals starter, Matt Strahm. The lefty will be making his first career major league start. He has been a reliever his entire big league career. Strahm is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 20 games this season. Strahm is getting the nod only because of an injury to Danny Duffy and the Royals losing faith in Eric Skogulund. In other words, he's a desperation ploy. The Angels are 11-6 versus southpaw starters this season. They've won five of the past six against them. Strahm has control issues walking 18 in 22 innings. He's going to be on a pitch count, too, so the Royals less than stellar middle relief figures to get plenty of work. I'd much prefer Nolasco against Strahm and a motley collection of Royals relief pitchers. The Royals are five games under .500 on the road. The Angels are at their best hosting opponents with a losing away mark winning 21 of the past 29 times against them.
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| 06-14-17 | Orioles -126 v. White Sox | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
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My reluctance on laying a road price with the Orioles is overcome by Chicago starting Miguel Gonzalez, who is 1-7 with a 6.56 ERA in his last eight starts. He's allowed 10 home runs in his last 46 2/3 innings. The Orioles are minus Chris Davis, but have Manny Machado back in the lineup. They are going with Dylan Bundy, who is their most consistent starter.
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| 06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
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The buy sign is on to back Corey Kluber. The former Cy Young Award winner looks to be in elite form again going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts since coming off the DL. He has an 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Indians have won 21 of Kluber's past 26 starts, including all four of his home starts this season. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for regression having given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 stars, including the last four. McCarthy is who he is - and that's an average pitcher at best. The Dodgers also have to deal with the distraction of Yasiel Puig, who drew national headlines for making an obscene gesture last night.
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| 06-13-17 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Tigers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
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Zach Greinke versus Buck Farmer is a massive starting pitching edge for Arizona. The Diamondbacks also have the superior offense. So, at this low lay price, Arizona is worthy of a solid investment. From 2014 through 2016, Farmer compiled an 0-6 record with 6.84 ERA being used more in relief than as a starter. Farmer has made two starts this season and not allowed a run in 13 innings. So, suddenly, we have a low price here. I'm not buying into Farmer. I'd rather go wtih Greinke, who isn't dominant like he once was but still remains well above average. He has a 3.20 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings with only 17 walks. Greinke has made 16 starts at Comerica Park. He's 13-7 lifetime versus Detroit with a 2.79 ERA. Greinke has been especially strong versus sub .500 teams. Arizona is 17-4 in Greinke's last 21 starts against teams with a losing mark. It's fair to point out that while the Diamondbacks lead the majors in batting at home with a .293 average, they have the worst road batting mark at .219. This is a misleading mark. Arizona has tremendous offensive players. Paul Goldschmidt is in the argument for best all-around player and Jake Lamb leads the majors in RBIs. Chris Owings is having a breakout season. This is the first time all season the Diamondbacks get to use a DH. The Diamondbacks have played 20 of their 30 road games at pitcher's parks, including six games at San Diego's Petco Park.
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| 06-12-17 | Rockies +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
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It's a nice story that Jameson Taillon is returning to the mound for Pittsburgh today five weeks after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Taillon is a promising young pitcher, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be following a 3.21 ERA during three rebhad starts in Double A. The Rockies lead the NL West, are 7-1 in their last eight games and have won 24 of their 35 road games. Colorado is pitching underrated lefty Kyle Freeland, who has held six of his 12 opponents this season to one or fewer runs. Colorado is 6-0 in Freeland's past six road starts. The Pirates are 7-11 going against southpaw starters. The Pirates rank 25th in runs and 29th in homers. They may be without their new closer and best relief pitcher, Felipe Rivera. He's gone 1 1/3 innings during each of the last two days. Colorado has one of the best offenses in baseball ranking fourth in runs and batting average. This could be an emotional night for the Pirates because of Taillon. But the Rockies are the better team and are getting a price. So they're worth backing here.
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| 06-11-17 | Mets v. Braves -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
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Unlike Saturday, when Sean Newcomb and Matt Wisler made their season debuts, the Braves are going with their best pitcher today: lefty Jaime Garcia. The former Cardinal usually is effective when he's been healthy. Rarely, though, was he healthy with St. Louis. Now he's 100 percent and in great form with a 1.23 ERA during his past four starts. The Mets have a losing record versus southpaws and also a losing road record. Getting the start for New York is Seth Lugo, who has been out all season recovering from an elbow injury. He makes his season debut after posting a 4.58 ERA in four rehab stats. He hasn't started in eight days. Lugo is rusty and likely to be on a pitch count. The Mets' bullpen is shaky.
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| 06-10-17 | Royals -112 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
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San Diego just may be the worst team in baseball, 14 games below .500 and in rebuilt mode. So the opportunity to lay a low price against them - especially when the Padres are going with a vulnerable starting pitcher - is a solid investment. The Padres have been outscored 48-17 in losing five of their last six games. They did win the opener of this series on Friday. But are 2-9 the past 11 times when playing Game 2 of a series. The Royals have won the last six times when playing in the second game of a series. I'm expecting a bounce back victory from the Royals again with a pitching matchup of Ian Kennedy versus Miguel Diaz. It's easy to get down on Kennedy because he hasn't been pitching well. However, everything sets up well for him here. He's finally healthy after being bothered by a leg injury. He has a good history when pitching at Petco Park - a place he knows well having pitched for the Padres from 2013-15 - and he's 7-2 lifetime against San Diego from his days with Arizona. The Padres also have the weakest offense in the majors ranking last in runs and batting average. Diaz is a reliever with a 7.50 ERA who is pressed into starting duty because of an injury to Jared Cosart. Diaz isn't ready. Padres manager Andy Green isn't optimistic either. This is what Green was quoted as saying about Diaz being a starter: "He doesn't have quite the deception necessary to turn lineups over two and three and four times right now. That's a challenge for him."
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| 06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -117 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
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I'll take any excuse to fade the A's on the road and this low lay price and pitching matchup gives it to me. Oakland is 8-20 on the road. Andrew Triggs is slated to go for the A's. He's in bad form with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts. Triggs has surrendered five homers in his last four starts. Tampa Bay ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers. Rays starter Alex Cobb has pitched better at home and is on extra rest. He is 3-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 2.44 ERA in seven career starts.
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| 06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -113 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
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The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 and five in a row. I don't see Kyle Gibson ending that streak. The Twins have overachieved, but now their bullpen is melting down and Gibson is on the mound. He's one of the worst starting ptichers in the majors. Gibson had 25 starts last season and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. He's been even worse this season with a 7.23 ERA. In 42 1/3 innings, Gibson has allowed 57 hits and 23 walks. The lay price is low, though, because the Mariners are starting Christian Bergman and are minus Jean Segura and likely to be without Nelson Cruz, too. Segura is on the DL and Cruz is dealing with a sore calf. Bergman got shelled three starts ago. That was on the road against the Nationals, who have the best offense in the majors. In his last two starts, Bergman has pitched well giving up two runs in 13 innings facing the Red Sox at Fenway and Rays at home. Bergman is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. I find the Mariners to be an excellent bargain being home against Gibson.
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| 06-07-17 | Giants +122 v. Brewers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
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I see a regression coming from the Brewers, who are a surprising three games above .500. So this is a good time to step in against the favored Brewers with a hot pitcher. Giants starter, lefty Ty Blach, hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts. He's 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during this stretch. Milwaukee has the disadvantage of never having faced him before. Ryan Braun is out for the Brewers and Eric Thames has cooled off. The Brewers also have a losing mark versus southpaws. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is in good form, too, but has yet to become a consistent pitcher. He has a 5.50 career ERA versus the Giants in three starts. The Giants are healthy now in the outfield with Denard Span and Hunter Pence both back in the lineup.
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| 06-07-17 | Indians v. Rockies +115 | 1-8 | Win | 115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying the Indians as a road favorite at Coors Field especially with Trevor Bauer on the mound. The Rockies are proving for real this season being 14 games above .500. Bauer has never pitched at Coors Field so he's going to be in for a rude awakening. He is 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA in six road starts this season and has never been consistent throughout his career. Cleveland has dropped nine of its last 10 interleague games. Freeland leads the Rockies in quality starts with eight. He has a 3.94 home ERA, which is respectable for Coors Field.The Rockies are 7-2 in Freeland's last nine starts.
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| 06-06-17 | Nationals -116 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
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Washington has the better record. Washington has the better offense. Washington has the better starting pitcher by far. So the Nationals are an easy choice here at this low lay price. The Nationals lead the majors in many of the key offensive categories. They are playing well going 6-1 on their current road trip. Nationals starter Max Scherzer is the best right-hander in the National League and is in dominant form with a 2-0 mark and 1.02 ERA with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts spanning 17 2/3 innings. Washington is 21-7 in Scherzer's past 28 road starts. LA is 2-4 in its last six games. The Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games. They are minus injured Justin Turner. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has pitched better than expected this season. But he's been nicked up with his latest injury being a finger blister that caused him to be lifted from his last start this past Thursday. McCarthy is two tiers below Scherzer. |
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| 06-05-17 | Nationals +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
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The Nationals have the best record in the National League. They have the top offense in baseball and already are in California having just concluded a series with Oakland. The Dodgers are traveling back home after finishing up a seven-game road trip this past Saturday with a 3-0 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Nationals are in the better spot and hold a starting pitching matchup edge with Gio Gonzalez taking on Hyun-Jin Ryu. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 2-9 in Ryu's past 11 starts. Ryu remains on the comeback trail and has a tenuous hold on LA's No. 5 pitching slot.
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| 06-03-17 | Twins +100 v. Angels | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
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The Twins have won 19 of their last 26 road games. They've defeated the Angels seven of the past nine times and have a huge pitching edge here with Erwin Santana versus Matt Shoemaker. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season going 7-2 with a 1.75 ERA, best in the AL. Only twice in 11 starts this year has Santana surrendered more than one earned run. Opponents are batting a meager .140 against him. The right-handed Shoemaker is off a terrible start giving up four runs and seven hits in less than five innings against the Marlins. Minnesota is 13-3 during its last 16 road games versus a righty starter. Don't forget, too, the Angels are minus injured Mike Trout, one of the few everyday players worth something on the line.
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| 06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
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I respect that Miami is playing its best ball winning four in a row. I'm also aware this is a tough traveling spot for the Diamondbacks going to South Florida after playing 14 innings on Wednesday in Pittsburgh with heavy bullpen usage. But all of this is trumped by a pitching matchup of Zach Greinke versus Jeff Locke and that the Marlins may be without Dee Gordon, who could be rested due to a right leg injury. Greinke has regained his dominance after an off-season last year. He has dominated the Marlins in eight career starts going 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA against them. Locke will be making his season debut. He hasn't been good since the first half of the 2013 season. He has a career 6.57 ERA in five appearances, including four starts, versus the Diamondbacks.
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| 05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
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I find excellent value here with the underdog Rockies. Colorado is 8-2 when Antonio Senzatela has started. His 3.19 ERA is the lowest in Colorado history through 10 starts. Lefty James Paxton is makign his first start since going on the DL May 3 with a left forearm strain. Paxton is going to be on a pitch count. Seattle is 4-10 in Paxton's last 14 home starts. The Rockies have been dynamic on the road going 18-8. They also are 10-6 versus southpaws.
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| 05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers +105 | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
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Despite Martin Perez not being his usual reliable self when pitching at home, the Rangers led the Rays, 7-5, going into the seventh inning in yesterday's Memorial Day game. This was fine by me since I had Texas and it was one of my biggest plays of the month. Then the Rangers called on a clown named Tony Barnette to help get them out of a jam in the seventh inning. Barnette gave up a two-run double and three-run homer. The Rangers couldn't recover and lost, 10-8. I want to back the Rangers in the worst way today especially considering Tampa Bay's bullpen - not good to start with - is shot having pitched 16 innings during the last two days. Closer Alex Colome isn't going to be available either having thrown three innings and 46 pitches during the past two days. Texas is 8-1 in its last nine home games. Adrian Beltre finally is back in the lineup giving the Rangers tremendous power at the corners with Joey Gallo and his 16 homers moving to first base. Gallo showed he could field his new position well, too, Monday. The Rays have played 10 hours and 14 minutes of baseball during the last two days after playing for close to 6 1/2 hours on Sunday going 15 innings. I'm going to get involved with the Rangers here, especially as home 'dogs. But I can't give them a a major recommendation because they are starting Nick Martinez. Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Rangers, but Martinez takes a backseat to most starters, including Andriese. The play is Texas. But the recommendation is small.
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| 05-30-17 | A's +152 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
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Trevor Bauer is hit and miss. Sonny Gray is healthy and coming on. A healthy Gray, without rust, is much superior to Bauer. So I'll take this high price with Gray and the A's. Gray has recovered from a strained right shoulder. He looked strong in his last start giving up one run on three hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts against the Marlins this past Wednesday. Gray has a 2.59 career ERA against the Indians. Bauer is capable of pitching a gem. But he's far more likley to throw a clunker. He has a 6.30 ERA on the season. Oakland is a respectable 5-5 in its last 10 games. Only three teams have hit more homers than the A's. Bauer has surrendered 11 homers in 50 innings.
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| 05-29-17 | Rays v. Rangers -115 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
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The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the Rangers, who play much better at home. Texas has won its last eight home games and 16 of its last 21 in Arlington. The Rangers draw the Rays after Tampa Bay just concluded a 6-hour, 26-minute, 15-inning Sunday game at Minnesota. The Rays went through seven pitchers in that game. Closer Alex Colome logged two innings throwing 36 pitches. He's probably not going to be able to pitch today if needed. Colome got the win on Sunday with the save going to Erasmo Ramirez, who threw 12 pitches. I point this out because Ramirez is slated to start this game. This is what Rays manager Kevin Cash was quoted as saying after first confirming Ramirez would start today: "He should be fine." Cash said. Note that Cash said "should" be fine rather than will be fine. Ramirez is 0-1 with a 5.72 ERA lifetime versus the Rangers in 11 career appearances. Regardless who starts for the Rays, I like the Rangers as an action play. I trust Martin Perez at home. The Rays obviously have a fatigue issue and there's the possibility of Adrian Beltre making his season debut for Texas afer being out all season with a calf injury. Beltre's presence would stablize the Rangers' batting order.
Perez is coming around after a disappointing April. He has a 3.16 ERA in four May starts. The southpaw has a history of pitching well at home. The Rangers are 14-6 in Perez's last 20 home starts. The Rays are just 6-11 against lefty starters this season. |
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| 05-28-17 | Rays -101 v. Twins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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There are certain pitchers who just shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Kyle Gibson is one such hurler. Gibson was a huge disappointment last season with a 5.07 ERA and he's been just as horrible - if not worse - this season with an 8.62 ERA. Until the Twins cut ties with this guy, Minnesota is worth fading when Gibson pitches especially when it opens as a home favorite. The Twins have been overachieving winning 15 more games than at this point last year. However, those victories haven't come at home where they are 12-15. Gibson had been sent down to the minors. He emerged this past Monday and was lucky the Twins put up 14 runs against the Orioles in that game because he allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings to pick up a lucky victory. Gibson has been consistent. He's given up three or more earned runs in each of his seven starts. Teams often rest some everyday players on Sunday. That shouldn't be the case, though, with hot-hitting Corey Dickerson. He was rested yesterday. Dickerson is having a breakout season batting .330 with 12 homers, 14 doubles and 23 RBIs. Rays pitcher Alex Cobb is far from an ace. But he's been steady this month - 3.12 ERA in five May starts - and is a clear upgrade on Gibson. The Rays have won seven of their last 10 road games and have beaten the Twins 19 of the last 26 times at Target Field.
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| 05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -113 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Pirates could hardly touch Jacob deGrom Friday. Now they face Zach Wheeler with their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, going. Wheeler is coming around from a long bout with arm trouble, but he's not deGrom. I see the Pirates bouncing back here and the price is right to get involved. Until beating Pittsburgh yesterday, the Mets had dropped six straight road games. The Mets have a shaky bullpen and their best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, isn't back yet from a hamstring injury. Wheeler has pitched well in his last four starts, but is giving up too many walks and can't be counted on to go deep into games. Wheeler walked five Angels in five innings during his last start. The right-handed Cole looks to rebound after his worst outing of the season when he gave up five runs on a season-high 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings to the Braves this past Monday. That game was in Atlanta. Now Cole is home where his ERA is 1.67 in four starts at PNC Park. Opponents are batting .161 against him there. The Mets have lost nine of their last 13 when going against a right-handed starter. They also have dropped six of their past eight at PNC Park. Gregory Polanco played for the first time since May 14 because of a left hamstring strain. The Pirates' offense is better with him back in the lineup.
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| 05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
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The Braves are playing better than expected. The Giants are playing worse than expected. Yet the Giants still have as many victories as the Braves. I'm looking for the Braves to regress to the norm especially without injured Freddie Freeman, their most productive player, and for the Giants to make a move now that they have returned home. As bad as they've been, the Giants still have a winning mark at AT&T Park. Outfielder Denard Span is back for San Francisco. That's huge and somewhat below-the-radar. The Giants are 17-8 the past 25 times at home when going against a lefty starter. They face southpaw Jaime Garcia today. Garcia hasn't pitched well on the road allowing 19 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings for an away ERA of nearly 5.00. Atlanta has dropped nine of its last 13 games at AT&T. The Braves take on Matt Cain here. I wouldn't touch Cain away from spacious AT&T, but he's been dynamic at home going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in four starts. Cain is past his prime, but he's a savvy veteran who knows how to pitch well in this park. Stephen Nover's Friday Free Play Orioles plus $.144 at Astros The ERA shows 6.65. But the buy sign is on for me here with Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman. I'm willing to take a calculated leap of faith with Glausman and the Orioles at this tidy road underdog price against Houston. Gausman is showing definite signs of turning around his year after a disastrous start. He's had two quality starts in his last three outings giving up two earned runs during those two good games. He pitched his best game of the season three starts ago holding Washington to two runs on five hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts. The Nationals lead the majors in runs, batting average and homers. The Orioles are four-for-20 with runners in scoring position during their last four games. Baltimore, though, ranks third in the league in batting with runners in scoring position. I see them getting back on track against Houston starter Joe Musgrove. Musgrove is the weakest of Houston's starters. He has a 5.63 ERA. Foes are batting .306 against him and have smacked nine homers off him, including six by right-handers. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed power. Musgrove lasted just three innings in his last start, which came at home against the Indians this past Sunday. He was blasted for seven runs allowing eight hits and walking three. Baltimore faced Musgrove once last season at home. The Orioles buried the Astros, 13-5, in that contest putting up eight runs on 11 hits and one walk against Musgrove in 5 1/3 innings. Houston is 1-5 in Musgrove's last six home starts. The Orioles were idle on Thursday, while the Astros had to use their best relievers to nip the Tigers, 7-6, Thursday. The spot is ripe for the Orioles. They are going against a very vulnerable starter with their own starter displaying positive signs of coming around. Baltimore has been good in these type of situations, too, winning nine of the last 13 times when going against a home team with a winning percentage of better than .600. |
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| 05-26-17 | Cubs +122 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
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I realize Jake Arrieta hasn't been as dominant as he's been the past couple of seasons and that Alex Wood is pitching extremely well. But the Cubs are the more powerful team - especially with the Dodgers minus injured Justin Turner and Joc Pederson - and Arrieta still rates an edge on Wood, who has yet to achieve consistency during his career. The Cubs have won 69 percent of Arrieta's last 54 road starts. Arrieta held the Brewers to one run, which was unearned, on five hits and six strikeouts with a walk in six innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Dodgers haven't scored in 16 consecutive innings when facing Arrieta. The southpaw Wood is coming off a 7-2 win against the offensively-challenged Marlins last Friday. Wood threw a season-high 96 pitches in that game. Following a quality Wood start, the Dodgers are 2-9 the past 11 times the next time he pitches. Chicago also is 10-4 the last 14 times facing a lefty starter, including 8-4 this season. The Cubs have smacked 26 homers in their last 14 games, second-most in the majors during this span.
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| 05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay was shut out by the Angels on Tuesday. I see the Rays bouncing back here against journeyman Ricky Nolasco, who is way overdue to get shelled. Going into Tuesday's game, the Rays ranked first in the league in extra-base hits, were No. 2 in hits and homers and third in runs and on-base plus slugging percentage. The Angels are a poor road club losing 15 of 25. Tampa Bay has a plus 16 run differiental and has led in 33 of its last 36 games. Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez has been dependable this season and has a career 2.41 ERA in nine appearances versus the Angels, including five starts.
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| 05-24-17 | White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
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We know what we're likely to get with White Sox starter lefty Jose Quintana and that's a quality start. Quintana is one of the more respected pitchers in baseball. The White Sox have won four of Quintana's past five starts. But what are the Diamondbacks going to get from their starter today, Randall Delgado? They're hoping for maybe five solid innings. Delgado hasn't started in two years. He has a 4.05 ERA and is part of a bad and untrustworthy Diamondbacks bullpen that figures to see a lot of innings as this shapes up as a bullpen-by-committee game. Delgado is filling-in for Taijuan Walker, who is on the DL due to blister issues. I'd much rather have Quintana going for me then some Arizona combination of Delgado, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jorge De La Rosa and T.J. McFarland. Yet, Arizona opened the favorite. The Diamondbacks have a losing record versus lefties. They are 2-5 the last seven times facing a southpaw starter. Another key here is motivation. It's only fair to point out Arizona has the best home record in the majors at 20-8. The White Sox, though, will be looking to avoid a sweep. Quintana certainly should be motivated as he's prime trade bait and a heavy dose of scouts throughout both leagues will be watching him.
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| 05-23-17 | Rangers +184 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
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What would you say if you could take a hugh price on an underdog that is 11-1 in its last 12 games and whose starting pitcher has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts? You would take it, right? So would I. That's the case with the underdog Rangers here against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park. Boston is an underachieving one game above .500. Texas is three games above .500. Porcello isn't coming close to reproducing his Cy Young Award-winning season of a year ago. He's 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Porcello has surrendered 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Texas has hit the eighth-most homers in the majors. Porcello also has a 5.69 career ERA versus the Rangers in nine starts. So why, pray tell, are the Red Sox such a heavy favorite? One huge reason is Texas starter Andrew Cashner has failed to win 21 of his past 22 road starts. His lifetime road ERA is 4.85 compared to 2.82 at home. Cashner pitched for 4 1/2 seasons for the Padres at Petco Park. That explains some of the home/road difference. The key here is Cashner is healthy, which he hasn't been the last several years, and pitching well. He has a 1.89 ERA during his last three starts and a respectable 3.12 ERA in three road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him.
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| 05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
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Just five days ago these two starting pitchers, Danny Duffy and Jordan Montgomery, squared off in Kansas City. The Royals won, 5-1. The Yankees couldn't solve Duffy, who pitched seven scoreless innings allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out 10. Montgomery yielded a career-high five earned runs in five innings. That was the rookie's second straight shaky start. So you have to wonder if the league has begun to adjust to him. Now the Royals get a second quick look at Montgomery, who has a 4.81 ERA. New York is 1-4 in Montgomery's last five starts. Keep in mind, the Yankees don't have injured closer Aroldis Chapman and their fill-in closer, Dellin Betances, carries a high fatigue rating having worked 2 1/3 innings the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches. So why should things be much different in this rematch? I'll take this nice price to say they won't.
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| 05-22-17 | Pirates -119 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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I expect the rebuilding Braves to start to tumble after losing Freddie Freeman, their best player. The Pirates are trending upward winning six of their last eight. This combination along with the pitching matchup puts me squarely on Pittsburgh today. Cole was outstanding two seasons ago. He's reverted back to that form this season. Cole has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts posting a 1.98 ERA during this span. Pittsburgh is 5-0 lifetime against the Braves when Cole pitches. I am a fan of Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz. I do believe in his potential. But he has a bad history versus the Pirates and hasn't solved Atlanta's new SunTrust Park with a 6.35 ERA in three home starts. Foltynewicz is 0-3 career-wise versus the Pirates with a 9.00 ERA. Pittsburgh only scored one run on Sunday, but its offense has picked up. Prior to yesterday, the Pirates were averaging 5.6 runs in their last six games.
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| 05-21-17 | Rangers -119 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
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This is a low price to back Rangers ace Yu Darvish against Matt Boyd, the Tigers' No. 5 starter. Darvish is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA during his last five starts. He's dominated the Tigers going 6-0 against them. He's been particularly strong at Comerica Park with a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers won't have Victor Martinez in their lineup and also could be minus Ian Kinsler, who left yesterday's game following tightness in his left hamstring. Boyd has a 5.18 ERA and is off his worst start of the season getting lit up by the Orioles to the tune of seven runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings this past Tuesday. Lifetime against the Rangers, Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four appearances. Detroit beat Texas on Saturday. The Rangers had won 10 in a row before that loss averaging 6.4 runs per game during their win streak.
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| 05-21-17 | Angels -104 v. Mets | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
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First, a reminder: The Mets aren't a very good team. They are 18-23 and had lost seven in a row until winning the first two games of this series. Injuries have reaked havoc on the Mets' highly promising pitching staff. The damage is so bad that veteran castoff southpaw Tommy Milone is getting the start here. The Brewers cut Milone after he posted a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Milone's ERA with the Mets is even worse at 5.90. He's not a big innings guy either and the Mets' vulnerable and disappointing bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. The Angels have a winning record versus lefty starters. Addison Reed took over for injured Jeurys Familia as New York's closer. He's not likely to be available after a 29-pitch, shaky outing Saturday. Angels starter Jesse Chavez has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this year. He's held batters to a .176 average in three starts this month. Chavez is serviceable. That's more than I can say for Milone. Remember, too, that the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, is on the DL along with underrated middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. |
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| 05-20-17 | Red Sox -105 v. A's | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
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Boston is the superior team. The Red Sox are going against lefty Sean Manaea, who I regard as fade material. Yet the line is very competitive. The marketplace is concerned about Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz, who hasn't been sharp his last two starts leaving his last one against Tampa Bay on Sunday after three innings due to tightness in his left triceps. I believe Pomeranz will come in with a big game here having said he corrected a mechanical flaw in his delivery. The lefty also said he is healthy. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. Pomeranz has a strong history at Oakland's Coliseum having pitched for the A's in 2014 and 2015. He made nine starts there going 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA. Manaea doesn't have Pomeranz's talent. He's 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. This is his second start since coming off the DL with a strained left shoulder. Manaea was smacked for four runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in his last start. He was wild once again with five walks. The A's are 1-5 the past six times Manaea has started. The Red Sox saw Manaea last season and pounded him for eight runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are 18-8, too, during their last 26 games versus a lefty starter. |
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| 05-19-17 | Royals +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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If the Royals, World Series champions just two years ago, are going to make a move in the AL Central this is their opportunity. The Royals trail the first-place Twins by 4 1/2 games. I know it's only May. But the Royals have a number of key players who are prospective free agents. If the Royals don't get their season turned around there will be a fire sale in Kansas City. So this is an important series for Kansas City. The Royals have been less than stellar on the road. However, Minnesota is 9-12 at home. The Royals catch the Twins having played a doubleheader on Thursday and have a hot pitcher, Nate Karns, going. The Twins are pitching Hector Santiago, a bottom of the rotation guy who had a 5.58 ERA last season and is off his worst game of the year. I've always been intrigued by Karns because of his high strikeout rate. He is pitching great right now going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts that include 29 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch. Minnesota isn't hitting either. The Twins are averaging 2.3 runs during their last six games. Santiago was lit up by the Indians this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits - including three homers - in just 2 2/3 innings.
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| 05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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Jhoulys Chacin is a stiff. But at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin is a monster. He's 2-0 there this season with a 0.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Chacin will be facing a Milwaukee lineup that will be without Ryan Braun and probably Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, too. That's a combined 28 homers and 74 RBIs missing. Those are the Brewers' three leading home run hitters. Braun is the Brewers' best outfielder while Thames and Shaw are Milwaukee's cornermen. Now you know why the Padres are laying a price. I'm not buying Matt Garza either. He has pitched well in his past four starts. Don't expect a fifth straight good start. Garza is sporting a 2.66 ERA. Regression is in order. Garza's ERA the past two years have been 4.51 and 5.63. He surrendered 23 homers two seasons ago. The Padres are on pace to easily set a franchise record for homers in a season with 211 after smacking a team-best 177 last season.
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| 05-16-17 | Rockies +104 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
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Two of the surprise teams get together to begin a series today with the Rockies at the Twins. Both are leading their respective divisions. I believe the Rockies are the superior team. Minnesota is due for regression and I'm not a fan of Twins starter Phil Hughes, who takes the mound today. Hughes has a lifetime 4.43 ERA.It was 5.95 last season. His ERA is 4.74 this season. I regard him as one of the least effective starters in the majors. I'm much more intrigued by 24-year-old rookie Kyle Freeland, who starts for Colorado today. He's the Rockies' best starting pitcher in my view with Jon Gray sidelined. Freeland had a bad inning against the world champion Cubs in his last start. Prior to that, though, Freeland had allowed just two earned runs in his three previous starts spanning 19 1/3 innings. Colorado is 4-1 in his last five starts. The Rockies have been dynamite on the road going 11-5. Minnesota has a losing home record this season. Going back to last season, the Twins have dropped nine of their last 13 at Target Field. Colorado has the superior bullpen - no closer has been better than Greg Holland - and is a perfect 9-0 in one-run games. The Rockies' ability to win close games is proof to me that they are real this season compared to past years when they couldn't win narrow outcomes.
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| 05-15-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +141 | 4-8 | Win | 141 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
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I see excellent value with the home 'dog Giants, who have beaten the Dodgers 18 of the last 24 times at AT&T Park. San Francisco is starting to show some life winning four of its last five. This is a big series for the Giants. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy hasn't pitched since April 29 because of a shoulder injury. He figures to be rusty even if he's 100 percent. McCarthy has a 7.36 ERA in five appearances versus the Giants, including four starts. The Giants are mid-sized 'dogs here because they are starting Matt Cain, who has a 4.54 ERA. Cain, however, is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA at home where he's aided by the spacious dimensions of AT&T Park.
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| 05-15-17 | A's v. Mariners -113 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
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The record shows both teams have 21 losses. But the Mariners are clearly the better team in my view, are back at Safeco Field where they are 10-5 and stand a good chance of getting back star second baseman Robinson Cano for this game. Seattle ranks 10th in runs scored. Oakland is 25th. The A's have dropped 11 of their last 13 road games. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus Yovani Gallardo. Manaea will be making his first start since coming off the DL after straining his left shoulder. He has a 5.18 ERA and a 3.91 career ERA versus Seattle in four starts. The Mariners have a winning record against lefty starters. Oakland is 3-10 in Manaea's past 13 road starts. Gallardo is Seattle's lone healthy starter from its projected rotation. Gallardo is past his prime, but he still has enough on his fastball and is crafty enough to beat the weak-hitting A's. He defeated the A's last month giving up one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. The Mariners' bullpen could get a boost with the possible return of Steve Cishek today.
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| 05-11-17 | Astros +113 v. Yankees | Top | 3-2 | Win | 113 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
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The Yankees have been the big early season success story, but the Astros have won eight of their last 10 and have the better pitcher going. Dallas Keuchel is looking like his Cy Young Award self of two seasons ago going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA. He is 4-2 lifetime versus the Yankees with a 1.41 ERA in six starts. Houston is 21-5 the past 26 times Keuchel has pitched on five day's rest, too. Houston is 4-0 in his last four road starts. Yankees starter Michael Pineda has looked good, too, during his last five starts. This isn't so much a fade on him but a chance to take Keuchel as an underdog. The spot isn't that great either for the Yankees returning from a five-game road trip.
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| 05-11-17 | Red Sox -133 v. Brewers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Red Sox by winning this game. Not with this pitching matchup and with Ryan Braun sitting out. Boston is the superior team and is 10-4 following a loss. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching well holding his last five opponents to a combined six earned runs. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 18 innings. The Brewers have never faced him. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has an ERA close to 5.00. He hasn't gotten past the sixth inning during his last four starts. The Brewers are 7-20 in Nelson's last 27 outings.
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| 05-09-17 | Rangers -137 v. Padres | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
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Jered Weaver is washed up. He can't even pitch well at Petco Park. The Padres have a losing home record. |
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| 05-08-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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There are certain pitchers you look forward to fading especially when the price is right. Trevor Bauer is one of those pitchers. And the price is low enough to back the home Blue Jays with the superior starter in Marcus Stroman. It's going to be difficult for the Indians to keep Bauer in their rotation with the way he's pitching. Only once during his first five starts has Bauer turned in a quality performance. Bauer has a 9.15 ERA in four night starts this season and has a 6.27 lifetime ERA in four career appearances versuse the Blue Jays. The Indians' two best relief pitchers carry high fatigue ratings, too, after each pitching during the last two days. Closer Cody Allen threw a combined 40 pitches during the weekend while Andrew Miller made 26 pitches. Stroman should be fine after leaving his last start after only three innings due to armpit tightness. He had allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts during April. It's an added plus for the Blue Jays if they get back their starting left side of their infield today as both third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could return from the DL.
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| 05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -131 | 5-4 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Yankees sweeping the Cubs. The defending world champions were embarrassed by the Yankees Saturday. They are coming with their best, big-game pitcher, Jon Lester, who has a 1.50 home ERA. Chicago is 23-6 in Lester's past 29 starts at Wrigley Field. Yankees starter Luis Severino fell back to Earth in his last start giving up five runs in 5 2/3, including two homers, against the Blue Jays. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts, 2-6 during his past eight road outings.
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| 05-07-17 | Giants -109 v. Reds | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
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The Giants aren't playing well and are banged-up in the outfield. But this low price puts me on San Francisco in a pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Scott Feldman. Cueto remains an elite hurler and is pumped to go against his former team. San Francisco has won 16 of Cueto's last 22 road stars and 28 of his last 39 overall starts. The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's starts this season. The Reds, on the other hand, are 1-5 in Feldman's starts this season. That makes sense considering Feldman's ERA is close to 5.00 Feldman is 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.86 ERA. I also trust the Giants' late relief more than Cincinnati's.
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| 05-06-17 | Astros v. Angels +115 | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
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The buy sign for JC Ramirez is on especially as a home 'dog. Ramirez, replacing injured Garrett Richards in the Angels' rotation, has allowed just two runs in his last two starts spanning 12 1/3 innings. Ramirez has 16 strikeouts in these last two starts. He's a bad matchup for the free-swinging Astros. Houston is going with Lance McCullers, who has a 9.64 road ERA. The Astros are 4-13 in McCuller's last 17 road starts. McCullers has to deal with Mike Trout, who is riding a career-high 17-game hitting streak.
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| 05-05-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
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Both teams are playing well, but the defending world champion Cubs are much superior to the Yankees. In a pitching matchup of Michael Pineda versus Kyle Hendricks and Chicago playing at Wrigley Field, this is a cheap price to lay with the Cubs. Chicago has won 40 of its past 57 home games. The Cubs also are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts. Hendricks, the NL's ERA leader last season, began the year slow but has looked much better. Hendricks has allowed just two runs during his past two starts spanning 12 innings facing the Pirates and Red Sox. The Yankees have never faced Hendricks. The Yankees rely on the long ball. They've gotten 13 homers this season from Aaron Judge, including six in his last six games. But the wind is going to be blowing in at around 20 mph limiting New York's power. I like the Cubs' ability to manufacture runs more than the Yankees especially with Pineda pitching in a totally unfamilar park.
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| 05-04-17 | A's +106 v. Twins | 8-5 | Win | 106 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
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I won't pass up a chance to take a 'dog price against Kyle Gibson. who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. |
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| 05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners -109 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
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I don't like the Angels on the road, nor the pitching matchup they have going for them here. Now that the price has come down, I'm getting involved with the Mariners. Seattle has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times at home. The Angels are 6-9 on the road this season. The pitching matchup is journeyman Ricky Nolasco versus Hisashi Iwakuma. Give me Iwakuma, coming off a strong performance and with a 2.76 lifetime ERA versus the Angels in 20 games. That ERA shrinks to 2.32 when he's pitched against the Angels at Safeco Field, which has been 10 times. Nolasco is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career outings versus the Mariners. I also don't like the Angels' late relief, which has been thinned by injuries.
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| 05-03-17 | Pirates -122 v. Reds | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -122 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games and starting Rookie Davis against Jameson Taillon here. This is a mismatch of epic porportions that isn't being priced that way. Taillon is a star in the making. He had a 3.38 ERA last season during his rookie season and is even better this season with a 2-0 mark and 2.08 ERA. The Pirates are 14-6 in his last 20 starts. Taillon is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Reds. This could be the last time to play against Davis because it won't be long before he's pulled from Cincinnati's rotation. The first-year major leaguer is making his fourth career start. He's pitched 9 2/3 innings and allowed 18 hits, including three homers. His ERA is 11.72. The most he's gone is four innings. The Reds' bullpen is suspect especially their middle relief. The Pirates are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 40 runs in their last six games. Free Wednesday Play Blue Jays minus $1.04 at Yankees The price is right to back the Blue Jays, who hold a strong starting pitching edge with Marcus Stroman facing 36-year-old C.C. Sabaitha. Stroman, who is from Long Island, always gets motivated to pitch against the Yankees. He is 5-2 lifetime against them with a 2.17 ERA. Stroman is pitching well this season allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts. Sabathia started well this year, but already is starting to fade. He is 0-1 in his last two starts with a 9.28 ERA. He was hammered by the Orioles during his last start this past Friday for seven runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Yankees are likely to be down to third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka in this game. Starting catcher Gary Sanchez is rehabbing in Triple A and backup Austin Romine suffered a groin injury on Tuesday night and had to leave the game. Higashioka doesn't have a hit in 15 at bats this season. New York has other injuries, too, with first baseman Greg Bird on the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury bothered by a nerve injury in his left elbow. |
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| 05-01-17 | Indians v. Tigers +127 | 1-7 | Win | 127 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
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I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter. Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.
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| 05-01-17 | Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees | 7-1 | Win | 157 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
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This is a nice underdog value price. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has given up just two runs during this last three starts spanning 21 innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year. Estrada went 2-0 versus the Yankees last season with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. The Yankees are going with Luis Severino. New York is 4-12 in Severino's last 16 starts. Severino is showing signs of living up to his great potential, but has yet to prove consistent. So this is too high of a price on him. Severino is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in five career starts versus the Blue Jays. The Yankees' bullpen carries a fatigue rating, too, after a wild three-game series against the Orioles.
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| 04-28-17 | Angels v. Rangers +112 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
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The combination of the Angels being on the road and pitching Tyler Skaggs puts me on Texas at this price. The Angels have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups. They are 4-9 in Skaggs' past 13 starts. Skaggs has a 4.44 ERA. He has a lifetime 6.20 ERA versus Texas. The Rangers just faced him on April 11 getting to him for five runs on eight hits in five innings. Texas starter Nick Martinez looked good in his last start. He's pitching for his spot in the rotation so this game means a lot. He has a 2.51 lifetime ERA in six starts and two relief apperances against the Angels. The Rangers are coming of a season-high in runs and hits during a 14-3 win against the Twins on Wednesday. Stephen Nover's Free Friday Play Royals minus $1.28 hosting Twins How much do I want to fade Kyle Gibson? Enough to lay a price with the Royals, who are coming off an 0-7 road trip and are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. Gibson is in the argument for worst starting pitcher in the majors. He was brutal last season going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and he has the second-highest ERA (9.00) of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings this year. The 0-3 Gibson couldn't reach the fourth inning against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday giving up seven runs before departing. He's surrendered 17 runs in 17 innings. The Twins have been patient with Gibson because he was their first-round pick in 2009. They had high hopes for him. But he is who he is. He's 32-41 lifetime with a 4.72 ERA and getting worse not better as the league is familiar with him. Gibson is a sinkerball pitcher. But he hasn't been getting ground ball outs the past two seasons. His fly ball rate of 30.2 percent this season would be a career-high. Opponents are batting an insane .467 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.343 when facing Gibson the second time through the order. Gibson's stuff is totally ineffective. Going against Gibson is the biggest reason why I'm involved in this game. There are other factors, though. The Royals are a good home team. That's held up this season where they have a winning record. The Twins are a bad road club losers of 22 of their past 32 away contests. Royals starter Ian Kennedy is off to an excellent start even if his record is 0-2. He has a 2.08 ERA. Kennedy made five starts against the Twins last season and went 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA. Kansas City is 5-1 the past six times Kennedy has faced Minnesota. The Royals need to turn things around now at home to regain the faith of their fans. This is a team, remember, that won the World Series just two years ago and remains strong defensively. The Royals really want payback, too, after the Twins swept them in Minnesota to begin the season with two of those three defeats coming in blowout fashion. The Royals dominated the Twins last season winning 15 of 19, including going 9-1 at Kauffman Stadium. Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar are all too good of players to be batting .220 or less. The Royals are due to bust out - and they couldn't fnd an easier pitcher to do it against. The price is low enough to get involved.
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| 04-26-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +107 | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
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The Giants are banged-up, but the pitching matchup clearly is their favor making them worthy of being a home 'dog. Dodgers starter Alex Wood is a borderline rotation starter. He didn't look good in his last start giving up four runs and seven hits while failing to finish the fifth inning this past Friday at Arizona. Lifetime against the Giants, Wood is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA. LA is 0-5 in Wood's last five starts. By contrast, Johnny Cueto is an elite pitcher. He has a career 2.74 ERA versus the Dodgers in 13 starts, including going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against them last season. Cueto is on his normal four days rest. The Giants are 17-4 the past 21 times Cueto has pitched on four days rest.
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| 04-25-17 | Royals -130 v. White Sox | 5-10 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
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The Royals are in a scoring slump. But the huge starting pitching advantage and team defense make the Royals a worthy investment. The price is too low with Danny Duffy going against Dylan Covey. Since moving into the starting rotation last season, Duffy has been one of the better pitchers in the league going 14-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Duffy has been outstanding this season with a 1.32 ERA giving up four runs in four starts. The White Sox, despite their big offensive showing last night, aren't much better offensively than Kansas City and have a much worse starter going. Covey isn't ready for the big leagues. That's obvious after his first two starts where he's allowed five walks and three homers with only two strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .357 against him. Covery has a 7.84 ERA.
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| 04-24-17 | Royals -105 v. White Sox | 1-12 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
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Look way under the radar screen and you'll find Jason Vargas, who is on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. Vargas is 3-0 in his three starts this season with a 0.44 ERA giving up one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. He hasn't been scored upon during his past two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Both teams have weak offenses. But the Royals get to work against Miguel Gonzalez while the White Sox must try to solve Vargas while ranking 28th in runs and homers. Chicago has scored one run or fewer in three of its last four games. Gonzalez is 1-5 with a 4.36 ERA in his career versus the Royals. The Royals have dominated the White Sox in Chicago winning 27 of the past 37 times. Kansas City will have back Lorezno Cain, who was rested on Sunday, and also could get back catcher Salvador Perez, who has been dealing with a stiff neck.
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| 04-24-17 | Twins v. Rangers -131 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
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So much for the Twins. After opening the season with four straight wins, the Twins are back to being as bad as ever. Minnesota has lost six of its last seven and is heading to the road with little confidence and low spirits following a 2-7 homestand during the last 10 days. Minnesota is 8-21 (27 percent) in its past 29 away contests. Texas, on the other hand, is playing well winning six of its last seven at home. Matt Bush has shored up the Rangers' closer role and Martin Perez is pitching at home here where he historically has been very effective. Perez is 12-5 lifetime with a 3.36 ERA in 26 starts at Arlington. The Twins haven't seen him since 2012. Perez has pitched exceptionally well in three of his four starts this season. Twins hitters who have faced Perez are a combined six-for-34 against him. Another reason to fade Minnesota is starting pitcher Phil Hughes, who looks washed-up. Hughes has allowed 10 runs - eight earned - in his last two starts spanning 10 innings while giving up 13 hits and three walks during this span. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. His ERA last season was 5.95.
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| 04-24-17 | Cubs -119 v. Pirates | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Pirates have dropped 21 of their last 31 home games and are drawing the Cubs in a foul mood after Chicago lost to Cincinnati on Sunday. The Cubs have by far the superior offense. This is especially so with Anthony Rizzo heating up and the Pirates missing two of their key offensive weapons with Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang not on the team. Marte's absence really weakens the Pirates' both offensively and defensively. Brett Anderson has looked good for the Cubs backed by a strong defensive infield. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl was 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season during his rookie year. I much prefer the Cubs' bullpen, too.
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| 04-23-17 | Nationals -145 v. Mets | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
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This is still a bargain even at this price range. The Nationals should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite against the Mets given the pitching matchup, current form of both teams and New York's multiple injuries. Washington has won six in a row. The Mets are 1-7 in their last eight while averaging 2.8 runs during this span. The Mets are down a number of key injured players, including Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores. New York's patchwork lineup is going to have to deal with Max Scherzer, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who is off to a great start with a 1.37 ERA. Scherzer has a lifetime ERA of 1.83 in 11 appearances against the Mets. Mets starter Zach Wheeler is making the transition from being sidelined the past two seasons. He has a 5.52 ERA this season and is 2-6 lifetime versus the Nationals with a 5.09 ERA. This is a mismatch of epic porportions and is priced way too low.
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| 04-23-17 | Tigers -101 v. Twins | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Twins shouldn't be favored in a pitching matchup of Michael Fulmer versus Kyle Gibson even at home and with the Tigers minus Miguel Cabrera. I lost hope on Gibson two years ago. His command has gotten worse since then and he's having another bad season this year with a 6.91 ERA. This is after compiling a 5.07 ERA last season.
Fulmer, on the other hand, is following up on his excellent 2016 season. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts. The Twins have lost 41 of the past 58 times versus a right- handed starter. The Tigers are 20-7 in Fulmer's last 27 starts for a winning percentage of 74 percent. |
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| 04-22-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +113 | 5-11 | Win | 113 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
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Arizona is 7-1 at home while the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. The Diamondbacks have southpaw Robbie Ray going. The Dodgers struggle versus lefties especially on the road where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times versus them. The 25-year-old Ray is coming into his own. He has 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .161 against him, which is the second-lowest in the NL. Ray has a 2.80 lifetime ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is off to a slow start with a 7.07 ERA. He hasn't been able to get to the sixth inning during any of his three starts. He's facing a better offense, too, than the Dodgers have.
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| 04-21-17 | Marlins -112 v. Padres | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
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The Marlins are a better team than the Padres and I like promising Adam Conley more than journeyman Trevor Cahill when it comes to starting pitchers. The Marlins have won in four of Conley's last five road starts. Miami also has the superior bullpen and defense. Cahill was pitching in relief last season. I'm not sold on him reverting back to being a starter. He's always vulnerable to giving up a big inning. He has a 4.66 career ERA versus the Marlins.
The Marlins have been on the West Coast for three days now so they are acclimitated to the time change. San Diego rarely follows up a victory with another win. The Padres are 9-25 after winning in their previous game. |
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| 04-20-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Brewers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
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This is a cheap price to get a pitcher I consider elite in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has been wilder this season and getting less ground ball outs than usual, but he's among the National League leaders in strikeouts. The Brewers are a good matchup for him because they are a free-swinging tean that strikes out a lot. The Cardinals have won 19 of Martinez's last 27 road starts. I also like St. Louis' bullpen better than the Brewers' pen especially the closer. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies figured to regress this season and that's been the case. Davies isn't a hard thrower so he needs good control. Yet already he has walked eight in 14 1/3 innings after only giving up 38 bases on balls in 163 1/3 innings last season. His ERA is a fat 8.79.
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| 04-19-17 | Orioles -103 v. Reds | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
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There's a class difference between these two teams. Yet the game is priced competitively because Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for Baltimore, the Reds are home and starting Amir Garrett, who has looked good in the early going. The 33-year-old Jimenez can give the Reds problems, though, with his assortment of pitches and veteran savvy especially since many of the young Cincinnati hitters don't have experience with him. Jimenez had success against the Reds when he was in the National League going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts. It's easy to rip Jimenez, but Baltimore is 7-1 in his last eight starts. As far as the Reds being home, I love it that the Orioles get to hit in Great American Ball Park. The Orioles are an elite power-hitting team and Great American Ball Park is an elite hitter's park especially for home run hitters. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 interleague games versus a right-handed starter and are 5-11 during their past 16 home interleague games. Garrett, a 24-year-old rookie, has been a pleasant surprise during his first two big league starts. Those outings though were against the Cardinals, who have yet to start hitting, and the Pirates, who rank 26th in runs scored. The Orioles now have a couple games of film on Garrett and are a step up for him. Wednesday Free Play Giants at Royals Under 8 If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today. |
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| 04-18-17 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Padres | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
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The price is low enough to back the superior team with the superior starter going. |
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| 04-18-17 | Rangers -126 v. A's | 2-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
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I've seen enough of Yu Darvish to believe he's back to being an elite pitcher. The Rangers' bullpen will be much better now that Matt Bush has been inserted into the closer role with Sam Dyson going on the DL. Bush is the Rangers' best reliever in my view. The A's have lost four in a row. They just lost power-hitting shorstop Marcus Semien for a couple of months. Oakland is hoping Andrew Triggs can end their losing streak. Triggs hasn't allowed an earned run in 11 2/3 innings this season spanning two outings. Triggs is a back end of the rotation type starter - if that - and is due for regression. He's faced 47 batters and has recorded just four strikeouts. The Rangers saw him twice last season when he was a rookie so they'll know what to expect.
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| 04-17-17 | Marlins v. Mariners -127 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
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Bad spot, below average starting pitcher and terrible track record make the Marlins a strong fade today. Miami is fat and happy after beating the Mets for a third consecutive time on Sunday following a walk-off home run by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first in the majors. That concluded a 4-2 homestand for Miami. Now, though, the Marlins travel cross-country across three time zones to play the Mariners in Seattle. The last time the Marlins played at Safeco Field was 2011. The Marlins have lost 20 of their last 27 interleague road games. This is their longest trip. The Mariners will be playing their seventh consecutive home game. They are 4-2 in their last six games, including three victories in a row. So they are playing well, too. The pitching matchup is Tom Koehler versus lefty Ariel Miranda. Koehler is an inning-eating, fifth-starter type, who is average at best when pitching at Marlins Park and below adequate when pitching on the road. The 30-year-old Koehler is 16-25 with a 4.49 ERA career road mark. Koehler's has a 4.50 ERA in 18 all-time interleague starts. The Marlins have lost in nine of Koehler's last 10 starts. The Marlins have never faced Miranda. Miami has lost eight of the past nine times when facing a southpaw in an interleague road game. Miranda's two starts this season have come against the Astros, one was decent the other bad. Now he steps down in class facing the Marlins, who have never seen Miranda. Miranda has a lifetime winning record with the Mariners, who have won four of his last five home starts.
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| 04-16-17 | Rockies v. Giants -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Giants are dealing with injuries, but I like them to solve Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela at home. Senzatela is making his third start of the season - and been surprisingly effective. But the Giants have two games of film on him now. Senzatela wasn't impressive during spring training going 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA. The Rockies are not a good road team and have lost 14 of the past 19 times following a victory going back to last season. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a solid veteran with a 2.25 lifetime ERA versus the Rockies in 11 appearances, including seven starts.
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| 04-16-17 | Angels v. Royals +100 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
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The combination of the Angels not hitting while pitching Tyler Skaggs, puts me on the Royals. The Angels have lost four in row, averaging 2.2 runs during this span. Skaggs isn't going to be in the majors too much longer if he keeps pitching so bad. He's 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA, while giving up 13 hits - including three homers - five walks and a hit batter in just 10 1/3 innings. The Royals are playing better now and Ian Kennedy is an upgrade on Skaggs.
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| 04-15-17 | Padres v. Braves +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
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Despite getting to play three games at Coors Field, the Padres are averaging just 3.4 runs this season. I see their young lineup having problems facing knucleballer R.A. Dickey. Wil Myers and Erick Aybar are the only Padres players experienced facing Dickey and his knuckleball. They are a combined six-for36 against him. The Braves are basking in their new park. The Padres not only have to make the difficult adjustment to face a knuckleballer - a pitcher many of their players have yet to face - but also going from Coors to the humid conditions of Atlanta. Padres starter Clayton Richard has a 6.91 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta. The Padres have lost the past five times, too, facing the Braves.
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| 04-14-17 | Angels v. Royals -124 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
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I'm not sure what the marketplace is thinking, but the number has come down far enough where I can now get involved with the Royals. Kansas City showed signs of getting straighten out on Thursday ending a long losing streak to the A's. |
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| 04-13-17 | A's v. Royals -127 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
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I understand it's risky to lay a price with a team that so far hasn't been playing well, which is the case here with the 2-6 Royals. But I don't see the A's sweeping the Royals in Kansas City especially with today's starting pitching matchup, which pits Jesse Hahn versus southpaw Jason Vargas. Hahn is a long innings reliever, No. 5 type starter, who couldn't crack Oakland's starting rotation out of spring training. But he'll get the start here - his first of the season - replacing Raul Alcantara. The A's likely made a mistake in giving Alcantara a starting rotation spot. But Hahn isn't much, if any, of an upgrade. The A's gave Hahn nine starts last season - and he posted a 6.02 ERA. The Royals' problem is putting up just eight runs when having had 52 base runners in scoring position. That's the worst mark in the majors and had largely contributed to Kansas City going 19 scoreless innings. But the Royals showed signs of breaking out of their slump scoring a combined three runs during the eighth and ninth innings last night. Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. It often can take two years for a pitcher to fully recover from that serious elbow surgery. I liked what I saw from Vargas in his opening start this season. He beat the Astros, 5-1, at Houston last Friday displaying excellent command and good velocity on his fastball. Vargas gave up one run in six innings allowing six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The A's have owned the Royals lately winning eight in a row against them. However, the Royals are 7-0 during Vargas' past seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Vargas has thrown two shutouts against Oakland and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA versus the A's. Oakland also has been terrible when facing lefties losing 22 of the past 30 times.
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| 04-13-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -120 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
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I'm a fan of lefty Brett Anderson, especially when he's healthy and pitching for a great team like he is now backed by an outstanding defensive infield. |
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| 04-12-17 | Astros -109 v. Mariners | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
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Seattle has problems. That's evident by the Mariners' 2-7 start. Shortstop Jean Segura is on the DL and the team isn't hitting ranking 28th in batting. I don't see things improving for the Mariners in this game, not with a pitching matchup of Mike Fiers versus Yovani Gallardo. Fiers posted a 1.98 ERA during spring training and was sharp in his regular season debut holding Kansas City to one earned run in six innings. He hasn't allowed more than three walks in a game for the past 35 starts. Fiers pitched once last year at Safeco Field and shut out the Mariners pitching six innings. Gallardo is a shot pitcher, far removed from his All-Star days of seven years ago. Gallardo has lost a lot on his fastball. He posted a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last season in 23 starts and wasn't impressive during spring training with an 0-2 mark and 7.47 ERA in five outings.
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