Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover MLB Money Lines Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-26-17	Cubs +122 v. Dodgers		0-4	Loss	-100	13 h 6 m	Show
I realize Jake Arrieta hasn't been as dominant as he's been the past couple of seasons and that Alex Wood is pitching extremely well. But the Cubs are the more powerful team - especially with the Dodgers minus injured Justin Turner and Joc Pederson - and Arrieta still rates an edge on Wood, who has yet to achieve consistency during his career. The Cubs have won 69 percent of Arrieta's last 54 road starts. Arrieta held the Brewers to one run, which was unearned, on five hits and six strikeouts with a walk in six innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Dodgers haven't scored in 16 consecutive innings when facing Arrieta. The southpaw Wood is coming off a 7-2 win against the offensively-challenged Marlins last Friday. Wood threw a season-high 96 pitches in that game. Following a quality Wood start, the Dodgers are 2-9 the past 11 times the next time he pitches. Chicago also is 10-4 the last 14 times facing a lefty starter, including 8-4 this season. The Cubs have smacked 26 homers in their last 14 games, second-most in the majors during this span.
05-24-17	Angels v. Rays -113		2-5	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
Tampa Bay was shut out by the Angels on Tuesday. I see the Rays bouncing back here against journeyman Ricky Nolasco, who is way overdue to get shelled. Going into Tuesday's game, the Rays ranked first in the league in extra-base hits, were No. 2 in hits and homers and third in runs and on-base plus slugging percentage. The Angels are a poor road club losing 15 of 25. Tampa Bay has a plus 16 run differiental and has led in 33 of its last 36 games. Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez has been dependable this season and has a career 2.41 ERA in nine appearances versus the Angels, including five starts.
05-24-17	White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks	Top	6-8	Loss	-100	12 h 34 m	Show
We know what we're likely to get with White Sox starter lefty Jose Quintana and that's a quality start. Quintana is one of the more respected pitchers in baseball. The White Sox have won four of Quintana's past five starts. But what are the Diamondbacks going to get from their starter today, Randall Delgado? They're hoping for maybe five solid innings. Delgado hasn't started in two years. He has a 4.05 ERA and is part of a bad and untrustworthy Diamondbacks bullpen that figures to see a lot of innings as this shapes up as a bullpen-by-committee game. Delgado is filling-in for Taijuan Walker, who is on the DL due to blister issues. I'd much rather have Quintana going for me then some Arizona combination of Delgado, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jorge De La Rosa and T.J. McFarland. Yet, Arizona opened the favorite. The Diamondbacks have a losing record versus lefties. They are 2-5 the last seven times facing a southpaw starter. Another key here is motivation. It's only fair to point out Arizona has the best home record in the majors at 20-8. The White Sox, though, will be looking to avoid a sweep. Quintana certainly should be motivated as he's prime trade bait and a heavy dose of scouts throughout both leagues will be watching him.
05-23-17	Rangers +184 v. Red Sox	Top	6-11	Loss	-100	11 h 51 m	Show
What would you say if you could take a hugh price on an underdog that is 11-1 in its last 12 games and whose starting pitcher has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts? You would take it, right? So would I. That's the case with the underdog Rangers here against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park. Boston is an underachieving one game above .500. Texas is three games above .500. Porcello isn't coming close to reproducing his Cy Young Award-winning season of a year ago. He's 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Porcello has surrendered 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Texas has hit the eighth-most homers in the majors. Porcello also has a 5.69 career ERA versus the Rangers in nine starts. So why, pray tell, are the Red Sox such a heavy favorite? One huge reason is Texas starter Andrew Cashner has failed to win 21 of his past 22 road starts. His lifetime road ERA is 4.85 compared to 2.82 at home. Cashner pitched for 4 1/2 seasons for the Padres at Petco Park. That explains some of the home/road difference. The key here is Cashner is healthy, which he hasn't been the last several years, and pitching well. He has a 1.89 ERA during his last three starts and a respectable 3.12 ERA in three road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him.
05-23-17	Royals +137 v. Yankees		6-2	Win	137	11 h 47 m	Show
Just five days ago these two starting pitchers, Danny Duffy and Jordan Montgomery, squared off in Kansas City. The Royals won, 5-1. The Yankees couldn't solve Duffy, who pitched seven scoreless innings allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out 10. Montgomery yielded a career-high five earned runs in five innings. That was the rookie's second straight shaky start. So you have to wonder if the league has begun to adjust to him. Now the Royals get a second quick look at Montgomery, who has a 4.81 ERA. New York is 1-4 in Montgomery's last five starts. Keep in mind, the Yankees don't have injured closer Aroldis Chapman and their fill-in closer, Dellin Betances, carries a high fatigue rating having worked 2 1/3 innings the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches. So why should things be much different in this rematch? I'll take this nice price to say they won't.
05-22-17	Pirates -119 v. Braves	Top	2-5	Loss	-119	17 h 39 m	Show
I expect the rebuilding Braves to start to tumble after losing Freddie Freeman, their best player. The Pirates are trending upward winning six of their last eight. This combination along with the pitching matchup puts me squarely on Pittsburgh today. Cole was outstanding two seasons ago. He's reverted back to that form this season. Cole has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts posting a 1.98 ERA during this span. Pittsburgh is 5-0 lifetime against the Braves when Cole pitches. I am a fan of Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz. I do believe in his potential. But he has a bad history versus the Pirates and hasn't solved Atlanta's new SunTrust Park with a 6.35 ERA in three home starts. Foltynewicz is 0-3 career-wise versus the Pirates with a 9.00 ERA. Pittsburgh only scored one run on Sunday, but its offense has picked up. Prior to yesterday, the Pirates were averaging 5.6 runs in their last six games.
05-21-17	Rangers -119 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
This is a low price to back Rangers ace Yu Darvish against Matt Boyd, the Tigers' No. 5 starter. Darvish is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA during his last five starts. He's dominated the Tigers going 6-0 against them. He's been particularly strong at Comerica Park with a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers won't have Victor Martinez in their lineup and also could be minus Ian Kinsler, who left yesterday's game following tightness in his left hamstring. Boyd has a 5.18 ERA and is off his worst start of the season getting lit up by the Orioles to the tune of seven runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings this past Tuesday. Lifetime against the Rangers, Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four appearances. Detroit beat Texas on Saturday. The Rangers had won 10 in a row before that loss averaging 6.4 runs per game during their win streak.
05-21-17	Angels -104 v. Mets	Top	12-5	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
First, a reminder: The Mets aren't a very good team. They are 18-23 and had lost seven in a row until winning the first two games of this series. Injuries have reaked havoc on the Mets' highly promising pitching staff. The damage is so bad that veteran castoff southpaw Tommy Milone is getting the start here. The Brewers cut Milone after he posted a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Milone's ERA with the Mets is even worse at 5.90. He's not a big innings guy either and the Mets' vulnerable and disappointing bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. The Angels have a winning record versus lefty starters. Addison Reed took over for injured Jeurys Familia as New York's closer. He's not likely to be available after a 29-pitch, shaky outing Saturday. Angels starter Jesse Chavez has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this year. He's held batters to a .176 average in three starts this month. Chavez is serviceable. That's more than I can say for Milone. Remember, too, that the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, is on the DL along with underrated middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera.
05-20-17	Red Sox -105 v. A's		3-8	Loss	-105	11 h 1 m	Show
Boston is the superior team. The Red Sox are going against lefty Sean Manaea, who I regard as fade material. Yet the line is very competitive. The marketplace is concerned about Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz, who hasn't been sharp his last two starts leaving his last one against Tampa Bay on Sunday after three innings due to tightness in his left triceps. I believe Pomeranz will come in with a big game here having said he corrected a mechanical flaw in his delivery. The lefty also said he is healthy. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. Pomeranz has a strong history at Oakland's Coliseum having pitched for the A's in 2014 and 2015. He made nine starts there going 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA. Manaea doesn't have Pomeranz's talent. He's 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. This is his second start since coming off the DL with a strained left shoulder. Manaea was smacked for four runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in his last start. He was wild once again with five walks. The A's are 1-5 the past six times Manaea has started. The Red Sox saw Manaea last season and pounded him for eight runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are 18-8, too, during their last 26 games versus a lefty starter.
05-19-17	Royals +108 v. Twins	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	17 h 30 m	Show
If the Royals, World Series champions just two years ago, are going to make a move in the AL Central this is their opportunity. The Royals trail the first-place Twins by 4 1/2 games. I know it's only May. But the Royals have a number of key players who are prospective free agents. If the Royals don't get their season turned around there will be a fire sale in Kansas City. So this is an important series for Kansas City. The Royals have been less than stellar on the road. However, Minnesota is 9-12 at home. The Royals catch the Twins having played a doubleheader on Thursday and have a hot pitcher, Nate Karns, going. The Twins are pitching Hector Santiago, a bottom of the rotation guy who had a 5.58 ERA last season and is off his worst game of the year. I've always been intrigued by Karns because of his high strikeout rate. He is pitching great right now going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts that include 29 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch. Minnesota isn't hitting either. The Twins are averaging 2.3 runs during their last six games. Santiago was lit up by the Indians this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits - including three homers - in just 2 2/3 innings.
05-17-17	Brewers v. Padres -120		3-1	Loss	-120	15 h 55 m	Show
Jhoulys Chacin is a stiff. But at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin is a monster. He's 2-0 there this season with a 0.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Chacin will be facing a Milwaukee lineup that will be without Ryan Braun and probably Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, too. That's a combined 28 homers and 74 RBIs missing. Those are the Brewers' three leading home run hitters. Braun is the Brewers' best outfielder while Thames and Shaw are Milwaukee's cornermen. Now you know why the Padres are laying a price. I'm not buying Matt Garza either. He has pitched well in his past four starts. Don't expect a fifth straight good start. Garza is sporting a 2.66 ERA. Regression is in order. Garza's ERA the past two years have been 4.51 and 5.63. He surrendered 23 homers two seasons ago. The Padres are on pace to easily set a franchise record for homers in a season with 211 after smacking a team-best 177 last season.
05-16-17	Rockies +104 v. Twins	Top	7-3	Win	104	12 h 58 m	Show
Two of the surprise teams get together to begin a series today with the Rockies at the Twins. Both are leading their respective divisions. I believe the Rockies are the superior team. Minnesota is due for regression and I'm not a fan of Twins starter Phil Hughes, who takes the mound today. Hughes has a lifetime 4.43 ERA.It was 5.95 last season. His ERA is 4.74 this season. I regard him as one of the least effective starters in the majors. I'm much more intrigued by 24-year-old rookie Kyle Freeland, who starts for Colorado today. He's the Rockies' best starting pitcher in my view with Jon Gray sidelined. Freeland had a bad inning against the world champion Cubs in his last start. Prior to that, though, Freeland had allowed just two earned runs in his three previous starts spanning 19 1/3 innings. Colorado is 4-1 in his last five starts. The Rockies have been dynamite on the road going 11-5. Minnesota has a losing home record this season. Going back to last season, the Twins have dropped nine of their last 13 at Target Field. Colorado has the superior bullpen - no closer has been better than Greg Holland - and is a perfect 9-0 in one-run games. The Rockies' ability to win close games is proof to me that they are real this season compared to past years when they couldn't win narrow outcomes.
05-15-17	Dodgers v. Giants +141		4-8	Win	141	8 h 55 m	Show
I see excellent value with the home 'dog Giants, who have beaten the Dodgers 18 of the last 24 times at AT&T Park. San Francisco is starting to show some life winning four of its last five. This is a big series for the Giants. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy hasn't pitched since April 29 because of a shoulder injury. He figures to be rusty even if he's 100 percent. McCarthy has a 7.36 ERA in five appearances versus the Giants, including four starts. The Giants are mid-sized 'dogs here because they are starting Matt Cain, who has a 4.54 ERA. Cain, however, is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA at home where he's aided by the spacious dimensions of AT&T Park.
05-15-17	A's v. Mariners -113	Top	5-6	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
The record shows both teams have 21 losses. But the Mariners are clearly the better team in my view, are back at Safeco Field where they are 10-5 and stand a good chance of getting back star second baseman Robinson Cano for this game. Seattle ranks 10th in runs scored. Oakland is 25th. The A's have dropped 11 of their last 13 road games. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus Yovani Gallardo. Manaea will be making his first start since coming off the DL after straining his left shoulder. He has a 5.18 ERA and a 3.91 career ERA versus Seattle in four starts. The Mariners have a winning record against lefty starters. Oakland is 3-10 in Manaea's past 13 road starts. Gallardo is Seattle's lone healthy starter from its projected rotation. Gallardo is past his prime, but he still has enough on his fastball and is crafty enough to beat the weak-hitting A's. He defeated the A's last month giving up one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. The Mariners' bullpen could get a boost with the possible return of Steve Cishek today.
05-11-17	Astros +113 v. Yankees	Top	3-2	Win	113	12 h 30 m	Show
The Yankees have been the big early season success story, but the Astros have won eight of their last 10 and have the better pitcher going. Dallas Keuchel is looking like his Cy Young Award self of two seasons ago going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA. He is 4-2 lifetime versus the Yankees with a 1.41 ERA in six starts. Houston is 21-5 the past 26 times Keuchel has pitched on five day's rest, too. Houston is 4-0 in his last four road starts. Yankees starter Michael Pineda has looked good, too, during his last five starts. This isn't so much a fade on him but a chance to take Keuchel as an underdog. The spot isn't that great either for the Yankees returning from a five-game road trip.
05-11-17	Red Sox -133 v. Brewers		4-1	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Red Sox by winning this game. Not with this pitching matchup and with Ryan Braun sitting out. Boston is the superior team and is 10-4 following a loss. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching well holding his last five opponents to a combined six earned runs. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 18 innings. The Brewers have never faced him. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has an ERA close to 5.00. He hasn't gotten past the sixth inning during his last four starts. The Brewers are 7-20 in Nelson's last 27 outings.
05-09-17	Rangers -137 v. Padres		11-0	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
Jered Weaver is washed up. He can't even pitch well at Petco Park. The Padres have a losing home record. A.J. Griffin is pitching well going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He's a native of San Diego so he'll be extra pumped here. The Padres have never seen him. The Rangers also are the better offensive team and have a rested closer in underrated Matt Bush.
05-08-17	Indians v. Blue Jays -113	Top	2-4	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
There are certain pitchers you look forward to fading especially when the price is right. Trevor Bauer is one of those pitchers. And the price is low enough to back the home Blue Jays with the superior starter in Marcus Stroman. It's going to be difficult for the Indians to keep Bauer in their rotation with the way he's pitching. Only once during his first five starts has Bauer turned in a quality performance. Bauer has a 9.15 ERA in four night starts this season and has a 6.27 lifetime ERA in four career appearances versuse the Blue Jays. The Indians' two best relief pitchers carry high fatigue ratings, too, after each pitching during the last two days. Closer Cody Allen threw a combined 40 pitches during the weekend while Andrew Miller made 26 pitches. Stroman should be fine after leaving his last start after only three innings due to armpit tightness. He had allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts during April. It's an added plus for the Blue Jays if they get back their starting left side of their infield today as both third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could return from the DL.
05-07-17	Yankees v. Cubs -131		5-4	Loss	-131	14 h 7 m	Show
I don't see the Yankees sweeping the Cubs. The defending world champions were embarrassed by the Yankees Saturday. They are coming with their best, big-game pitcher, Jon Lester, who has a 1.50 home ERA. Chicago is 23-6 in Lester's past 29 starts at Wrigley Field. Yankees starter Luis Severino fell back to Earth in his last start giving up five runs in 5 2/3, including two homers, against the Blue Jays. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts, 2-6 during his past eight road outings.
05-07-17	Giants -109 v. Reds		0-4	Loss	-109	10 h 57 m	Show
The Giants aren't playing well and are banged-up in the outfield. But this low price puts me on San Francisco in a pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Scott Feldman. Cueto remains an elite hurler and is pumped to go against his former team. San Francisco has won 16 of Cueto's last 22 road stars and 28 of his last 39 overall starts. The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's starts this season. The Reds, on the other hand, are 1-5 in Feldman's starts this season. That makes sense considering Feldman's ERA is close to 5.00 Feldman is 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.86 ERA. I also trust the Giants' late relief more than Cincinnati's.
05-06-17	Astros v. Angels +115		1-2	Win	115	12 h 56 m	Show
The buy sign for JC Ramirez is on especially as a home 'dog. Ramirez, replacing injured Garrett Richards in the Angels' rotation, has allowed just two runs in his last two starts spanning 12 1/3 innings. Ramirez has 16 strikeouts in these last two starts. He's a bad matchup for the free-swinging Astros. Houston is going with Lance McCullers, who has a 9.64 road ERA. The Astros are 4-13 in McCuller's last 17 road starts. McCullers has to deal with Mike Trout, who is riding a career-high 17-game hitting streak.
05-05-17	Yankees v. Cubs -115		3-2	Loss	-115	8 h 43 m	Show
Both teams are playing well, but the defending world champion Cubs are much superior to the Yankees. In a pitching matchup of Michael Pineda versus Kyle Hendricks and Chicago playing at Wrigley Field, this is a cheap price to lay with the Cubs. Chicago has won 40 of its past 57 home games. The Cubs also are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts. Hendricks, the NL's ERA leader last season, began the year slow but has looked much better. Hendricks has allowed just two runs during his past two starts spanning 12 innings facing the Pirates and Red Sox. The Yankees have never faced Hendricks. The Yankees rely on the long ball. They've gotten 13 homers this season from Aaron Judge, including six in his last six games. But the wind is going to be blowing in at around 20 mph limiting New York's power. I like the Cubs' ability to manufacture runs more than the Yankees especially with Pineda pitching in a totally unfamilar park.
05-04-17	A's +106 v. Twins		8-5	Win	106	6 h 20 m	Show
I won't pass up a chance to take a 'dog price against Kyle Gibson. who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. A's starter Jharel Cotton has been up-and-down, but has intriguing potential. He's been dynamite during his two day starts going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA while holding foes to a .182 average.
05-03-17	Angels v. Mariners -109		7-8	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
I don't like the Angels on the road, nor the pitching matchup they have going for them here. Now that the price has come down, I'm getting involved with the Mariners. Seattle has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times at home. The Angels are 6-9 on the road this season. The pitching matchup is journeyman Ricky Nolasco versus Hisashi Iwakuma. Give me Iwakuma, coming off a strong performance and with a 2.76 lifetime ERA versus the Angels in 20 games. That ERA shrinks to 2.32 when he's pitched against the Angels at Safeco Field, which has been 10 times. Nolasco is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career outings versus the Mariners. I also don't like the Angels' late relief, which has been thinned by injuries.
05-03-17	Pirates -122 v. Reds	Top	2-7	Loss	-122	19 h 48 m	Show
The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games and starting Rookie Davis against Jameson Taillon here. This is a mismatch of epic porportions that isn't being priced that way. Taillon is a star in the making. He had a 3.38 ERA last season during his rookie season and is even better this season with a 2-0 mark and 2.08 ERA. The Pirates are 14-6 in his last 20 starts. Taillon is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Reds. This could be the last time to play against Davis because it won't be long before he's pulled from Cincinnati's rotation. The first-year major leaguer is making his fourth career start. He's pitched 9 2/3 innings and allowed 18 hits, including three homers. His ERA is 11.72. The most he's gone is four innings. The Reds' bullpen is suspect especially their middle relief. The Pirates are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 40 runs in their last six games. Free Wednesday Play Blue Jays minus $1.04 at Yankees The price is right to back the Blue Jays, who hold a strong starting pitching edge with Marcus Stroman facing 36-year-old C.C. Sabaitha. Stroman, who is from Long Island, always gets motivated to pitch against the Yankees. He is 5-2 lifetime against them with a 2.17 ERA. Stroman is pitching well this season allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts. Sabathia started well this year, but already is starting to fade. He is 0-1 in his last two starts with a 9.28 ERA. He was hammered by the Orioles during his last start this past Friday for seven runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Yankees are likely to be down to third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka in this game. Starting catcher Gary Sanchez is rehabbing in Triple A and backup Austin Romine suffered a groin injury on Tuesday night and had to leave the game. Higashioka doesn't have a hit in 15 at bats this season. New York has other injuries, too, with first baseman Greg Bird on the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury bothered by a nerve injury in his left elbow.
05-01-17	Indians v. Tigers +127		1-7	Win	127	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter. Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.
05-01-17	Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees		7-1	Win	157	11 h 12 m	Show
This is a nice underdog value price. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has given up just two runs during this last three starts spanning 21 innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year. Estrada went 2-0 versus the Yankees last season with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. The Yankees are going with Luis Severino. New York is 4-12 in Severino's last 16 starts. Severino is showing signs of living up to his great potential, but has yet to prove consistent. So this is too high of a price on him. Severino is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in five career starts versus the Blue Jays. The Yankees' bullpen carries a fatigue rating, too, after a wild three-game series against the Orioles.
04-28-17	Angels v. Rangers +112		6-3	Loss	-100	9 h 39 m	Show
The combination of the Angels being on the road and pitching Tyler Skaggs puts me on Texas at this price. The Angels have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups. They are 4-9 in Skaggs' past 13 starts. Skaggs has a 4.44 ERA. He has a lifetime 6.20 ERA versus Texas. The Rangers just faced him on April 11 getting to him for five runs on eight hits in five innings. Texas starter Nick Martinez looked good in his last start. He's pitching for his spot in the rotation so this game means a lot. He has a 2.51 lifetime ERA in six starts and two relief apperances against the Angels. The Rangers are coming of a season-high in runs and hits during a 14-3 win against the Twins on Wednesday. Stephen Nover's Free Friday Play Royals minus $1.28 hosting Twins How much do I want to fade Kyle Gibson? Enough to lay a price with the Royals, who are coming off an 0-7 road trip and are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. Gibson is in the argument for worst starting pitcher in the majors. He was brutal last season going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and he has the second-highest ERA (9.00) of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings this year. The 0-3 Gibson couldn't reach the fourth inning against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday giving up seven runs before departing. He's surrendered 17 runs in 17 innings. The Twins have been patient with Gibson because he was their first-round pick in 2009. They had high hopes for him. But he is who he is. He's 32-41 lifetime with a 4.72 ERA and getting worse not better as the league is familiar with him. Gibson is a sinkerball pitcher. But he hasn't been getting ground ball outs the past two seasons. His fly ball rate of 30.2 percent this season would be a career-high. Opponents are batting an insane .467 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.343 when facing Gibson the second time through the order. Gibson's stuff is totally ineffective. Going against Gibson is the biggest reason why I'm involved in this game. There are other factors, though. The Royals are a good home team. That's held up this season where they have a winning record. The Twins are a bad road club losers of 22 of their past 32 away contests. Royals starter Ian Kennedy is off to an excellent start even if his record is 0-2. He has a 2.08 ERA. Kennedy made five starts against the Twins last season and went 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA. Kansas City is 5-1 the past six times Kennedy has faced Minnesota. The Royals need to turn things around now at home to regain the faith of their fans. This is a team, remember, that won the World Series just two years ago and remains strong defensively. The Royals really want payback, too, after the Twins swept them in Minnesota to begin the season with two of those three defeats coming in blowout fashion. The Royals dominated the Twins last season winning 15 of 19, including going 9-1 at Kauffman Stadium. Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar are all too good of players to be batting .220 or less. The Royals are due to bust out - and they couldn't fnd an easier pitcher to do it against. The price is low enough to get involved.
04-26-17	Dodgers v. Giants +107		3-4	Win	107	14 h 10 m	Show
The Giants are banged-up, but the pitching matchup clearly is their favor making them worthy of being a home 'dog. Dodgers starter Alex Wood is a borderline rotation starter. He didn't look good in his last start giving up four runs and seven hits while failing to finish the fifth inning this past Friday at Arizona. Lifetime against the Giants, Wood is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA. LA is 0-5 in Wood's last five starts. By contrast, Johnny Cueto is an elite pitcher. He has a career 2.74 ERA versus the Dodgers in 13 starts, including going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against them last season. Cueto is on his normal four days rest. The Giants are 17-4 the past 21 times Cueto has pitched on four days rest.
04-25-17	Royals -130 v. White Sox		5-10	Loss	-130	8 h 56 m	Show
The Royals are in a scoring slump. But the huge starting pitching advantage and team defense make the Royals a worthy investment. The price is too low with Danny Duffy going against Dylan Covey. Since moving into the starting rotation last season, Duffy has been one of the better pitchers in the league going 14-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Duffy has been outstanding this season with a 1.32 ERA giving up four runs in four starts. The White Sox, despite their big offensive showing last night, aren't much better offensively than Kansas City and have a much worse starter going. Covey isn't ready for the big leagues. That's obvious after his first two starts where he's allowed five walks and three homers with only two strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .357 against him. Covery has a 7.84 ERA.
04-24-17	Royals -105 v. White Sox		1-12	Loss	-105	13 h 45 m	Show
Look way under the radar screen and you'll find Jason Vargas, who is on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. Vargas is 3-0 in his three starts this season with a 0.44 ERA giving up one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. He hasn't been scored upon during his past two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Both teams have weak offenses. But the Royals get to work against Miguel Gonzalez while the White Sox must try to solve Vargas while ranking 28th in runs and homers. Chicago has scored one run or fewer in three of its last four games. Gonzalez is 1-5 with a 4.36 ERA in his career versus the Royals. The Royals have dominated the White Sox in Chicago winning 27 of the past 37 times. Kansas City will have back Lorezno Cain, who was rested on Sunday, and also could get back catcher Salvador Perez, who has been dealing with a stiff neck.
04-24-17	Twins v. Rangers -131	Top	3-2	Loss	-131	13 h 19 m	Show
So much for the Twins. After opening the season with four straight wins, the Twins are back to being as bad as ever. Minnesota has lost six of its last seven and is heading to the road with little confidence and low spirits following a 2-7 homestand during the last 10 days. Minnesota is 8-21 (27 percent) in its past 29 away contests. Texas, on the other hand, is playing well winning six of its last seven at home. Matt Bush has shored up the Rangers' closer role and Martin Perez is pitching at home here where he historically has been very effective. Perez is 12-5 lifetime with a 3.36 ERA in 26 starts at Arlington. The Twins haven't seen him since 2012. Perez has pitched exceptionally well in three of his four starts this season. Twins hitters who have faced Perez are a combined six-for-34 against him. Another reason to fade Minnesota is starting pitcher Phil Hughes, who looks washed-up. Hughes has allowed 10 runs - eight earned - in his last two starts spanning 10 innings while giving up 13 hits and three walks during this span. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. His ERA last season was 5.95.
04-24-17	Cubs -119 v. Pirates		14-3	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
The Pirates have dropped 21 of their last 31 home games and are drawing the Cubs in a foul mood after Chicago lost to Cincinnati on Sunday. The Cubs have by far the superior offense. This is especially so with Anthony Rizzo heating up and the Pirates missing two of their key offensive weapons with Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang not on the team. Marte's absence really weakens the Pirates' both offensively and defensively. Brett Anderson has looked good for the Cubs backed by a strong defensive infield. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl was 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season during his rookie year. I much prefer the Cubs' bullpen, too.
04-23-17	Nationals -145 v. Mets		6-3	Win	100	14 h 23 m	Show
This is still a bargain even at this price range. The Nationals should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite against the Mets given the pitching matchup, current form of both teams and New York's multiple injuries. Washington has won six in a row. The Mets are 1-7 in their last eight while averaging 2.8 runs during this span. The Mets are down a number of key injured players, including Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores. New York's patchwork lineup is going to have to deal with Max Scherzer, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who is off to a great start with a 1.37 ERA. Scherzer has a lifetime ERA of 1.83 in 11 appearances against the Mets. Mets starter Zach Wheeler is making the transition from being sidelined the past two seasons. He has a 5.52 ERA this season and is 2-6 lifetime versus the Nationals with a 5.09 ERA. This is a mismatch of epic porportions and is priced way too low.
04-23-17	Tigers -101 v. Twins		13-4	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
The Twins shouldn't be favored in a pitching matchup of Michael Fulmer versus Kyle Gibson even at home and with the Tigers minus Miguel Cabrera. I lost hope on Gibson two years ago. His command has gotten worse since then and he's having another bad season this year with a 6.91 ERA. This is after compiling a 5.07 ERA last season. Fulmer, on the other hand, is following up on his excellent 2016 season. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts. The Twins have lost 41 of the past 58 times versus a right- handed starter. The Tigers are 20-7 in Fulmer's last 27 starts for a winning percentage of 74 percent.
04-22-17	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +113		5-11	Win	113	7 h 43 m	Show
Arizona is 7-1 at home while the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. The Diamondbacks have southpaw Robbie Ray going. The Dodgers struggle versus lefties especially on the road where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times versus them. The 25-year-old Ray is coming into his own. He has 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .161 against him, which is the second-lowest in the NL. Ray has a 2.80 lifetime ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is off to a slow start with a 7.07 ERA. He hasn't been able to get to the sixth inning during any of his three starts. He's facing a better offense, too, than the Dodgers have.
04-21-17	Marlins -112 v. Padres		3-5	Loss	-112	10 h 28 m	Show
The Marlins are a better team than the Padres and I like promising Adam Conley more than journeyman Trevor Cahill when it comes to starting pitchers. The Marlins have won in four of Conley's last five road starts. Miami also has the superior bullpen and defense. Cahill was pitching in relief last season. I'm not sold on him reverting back to being a starter. He's always vulnerable to giving up a big inning. He has a 4.66 career ERA versus the Marlins. The Marlins have been on the West Coast for three days now so they are acclimitated to the time change. San Diego rarely follows up a victory with another win. The Padres are 9-25 after winning in their previous game.
04-20-17	Cardinals -111 v. Brewers	Top	5-7	Loss	-111	9 h 52 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get a pitcher I consider elite in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has been wilder this season and getting less ground ball outs than usual, but he's among the National League leaders in strikeouts. The Brewers are a good matchup for him because they are a free-swinging tean that strikes out a lot. The Cardinals have won 19 of Martinez's last 27 road starts. I also like St. Louis' bullpen better than the Brewers' pen especially the closer. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies figured to regress this season and that's been the case. Davies isn't a hard thrower so he needs good control. Yet already he has walked eight in 14 1/3 innings after only giving up 38 bases on balls in 163 1/3 innings last season. His ERA is a fat 8.79.
04-19-17	Orioles -103 v. Reds		2-0	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
There's a class difference between these two teams. Yet the game is priced competitively because Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for Baltimore, the Reds are home and starting Amir Garrett, who has looked good in the early going. The 33-year-old Jimenez can give the Reds problems, though, with his assortment of pitches and veteran savvy especially since many of the young Cincinnati hitters don't have experience with him. Jimenez had success against the Reds when he was in the National League going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts. It's easy to rip Jimenez, but Baltimore is 7-1 in his last eight starts. As far as the Reds being home, I love it that the Orioles get to hit in Great American Ball Park. The Orioles are an elite power-hitting team and Great American Ball Park is an elite hitter's park especially for home run hitters. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 interleague games versus a right-handed starter and are 5-11 during their past 16 home interleague games. Garrett, a 24-year-old rookie, has been a pleasant surprise during his first two big league starts. Those outings though were against the Cardinals, who have yet to start hitting, and the Pirates, who rank 26th in runs scored. The Orioles now have a couple games of film on Garrett and are a step up for him. Wednesday Free Play Giants at Royals Under 8 If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today.
04-18-17	Diamondbacks -116 v. Padres		11-2	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior team with the superior starter going. Shelby Miller is showing signs of having a big bounce back season with the velocity on his fastball up. Miller is far more talented than his numbers showed from last season. Jarred Cosart, the Padres starter, on the other hand is who he is. And that's a borderline major league who doesn't get many strikeouts and walks too many batters. He's not helped by having perhaps the weakest team in baseball behind him. This isn't a good spot either for the Padres being their first home game following a seven-game road trip that finished Sunday in Atlanta.
04-18-17	Rangers -126 v. A's		2-4	Loss	-126	12 h 51 m	Show
I've seen enough of Yu Darvish to believe he's back to being an elite pitcher. The Rangers' bullpen will be much better now that Matt Bush has been inserted into the closer role with Sam Dyson going on the DL. Bush is the Rangers' best reliever in my view. The A's have lost four in a row. They just lost power-hitting shorstop Marcus Semien for a couple of months. Oakland is hoping Andrew Triggs can end their losing streak. Triggs hasn't allowed an earned run in 11 2/3 innings this season spanning two outings. Triggs is a back end of the rotation type starter - if that - and is due for regression. He's faced 47 batters and has recorded just four strikeouts. The Rangers saw him twice last season when he was a rookie so they'll know what to expect.
04-17-17	Marlins v. Mariners -127	Top	1-6	Win	100	17 h 37 m	Show
Bad spot, below average starting pitcher and terrible track record make the Marlins a strong fade today. Miami is fat and happy after beating the Mets for a third consecutive time on Sunday following a walk-off home run by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first in the majors. That concluded a 4-2 homestand for Miami. Now, though, the Marlins travel cross-country across three time zones to play the Mariners in Seattle. The last time the Marlins played at Safeco Field was 2011. The Marlins have lost 20 of their last 27 interleague road games. This is their longest trip. The Mariners will be playing their seventh consecutive home game. They are 4-2 in their last six games, including three victories in a row. So they are playing well, too. The pitching matchup is Tom Koehler versus lefty Ariel Miranda. Koehler is an inning-eating, fifth-starter type, who is average at best when pitching at Marlins Park and below adequate when pitching on the road. The 30-year-old Koehler is 16-25 with a 4.49 ERA career road mark. Koehler's has a 4.50 ERA in 18 all-time interleague starts. The Marlins have lost in nine of Koehler's last 10 starts. The Marlins have never faced Miranda. Miami has lost eight of the past nine times when facing a southpaw in an interleague road game. Miranda's two starts this season have come against the Astros, one was decent the other bad. Now he steps down in class facing the Marlins, who have never seen Miranda. Miranda has a lifetime winning record with the Mariners, who have won four of his last five home starts.
04-16-17	Rockies v. Giants -126		4-3	Loss	-126	8 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are dealing with injuries, but I like them to solve Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela at home. Senzatela is making his third start of the season - and been surprisingly effective. But the Giants have two games of film on him now. Senzatela wasn't impressive during spring training going 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA. The Rockies are not a good road team and have lost 14 of the past 19 times following a victory going back to last season. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a solid veteran with a 2.25 lifetime ERA versus the Rockies in 11 appearances, including seven starts.
04-16-17	Angels v. Royals +100		0-1	Win	100	6 h 59 m	Show
The combination of the Angels not hitting while pitching Tyler Skaggs, puts me on the Royals. The Angels have lost four in row, averaging 2.2 runs during this span. Skaggs isn't going to be in the majors too much longer if he keeps pitching so bad. He's 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA, while giving up 13 hits - including three homers - five walks and a hit batter in just 10 1/3 innings. The Royals are playing better now and Ian Kennedy is an upgrade on Skaggs.
04-15-17	Padres v. Braves +100		2-4	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
Despite getting to play three games at Coors Field, the Padres are averaging just 3.4 runs this season. I see their young lineup having problems facing knucleballer R.A. Dickey. Wil Myers and Erick Aybar are the only Padres players experienced facing Dickey and his knuckleball. They are a combined six-for36 against him. The Braves are basking in their new park. The Padres not only have to make the difficult adjustment to face a knuckleballer - a pitcher many of their players have yet to face - but also going from Coors to the humid conditions of Atlanta. Padres starter Clayton Richard has a 6.91 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta. The Padres have lost the past five times, too, facing the Braves.
04-14-17	Angels v. Royals -124		1-7	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
I'm not sure what the marketplace is thinking, but the number has come down far enough where I can now get involved with the Royals. Kansas City showed signs of getting straighten out on Thursday ending a long losing streak to the A's. Now the Royals have a strong pitching edge with Danny Duffy against J.C. Ramirez. Duffy isn't getting any marketplace love, but he had a strong half last season and is showing signs of coming into his own. Ramirez has a 5.14 ERA and is a journeyman reliever drawing a start in place of Garrett Richards. Ramirez couldn't even stick with the Reds last season. I don't like his stuff, nor his metrics.
04-13-17	A's v. Royals -127		1-3	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
I understand it's risky to lay a price with a team that so far hasn't been playing well, which is the case here with the 2-6 Royals. But I don't see the A's sweeping the Royals in Kansas City especially with today's starting pitching matchup, which pits Jesse Hahn versus southpaw Jason Vargas. Hahn is a long innings reliever, No. 5 type starter, who couldn't crack Oakland's starting rotation out of spring training. But he'll get the start here - his first of the season - replacing Raul Alcantara. The A's likely made a mistake in giving Alcantara a starting rotation spot. But Hahn isn't much, if any, of an upgrade. The A's gave Hahn nine starts last season - and he posted a 6.02 ERA. The Royals' problem is putting up just eight runs when having had 52 base runners in scoring position. That's the worst mark in the majors and had largely contributed to Kansas City going 19 scoreless innings. But the Royals showed signs of breaking out of their slump scoring a combined three runs during the eighth and ninth innings last night. Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. It often can take two years for a pitcher to fully recover from that serious elbow surgery. I liked what I saw from Vargas in his opening start this season. He beat the Astros, 5-1, at Houston last Friday displaying excellent command and good velocity on his fastball. Vargas gave up one run in six innings allowing six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The A's have owned the Royals lately winning eight in a row against them. However, the Royals are 7-0 during Vargas' past seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Vargas has thrown two shutouts against Oakland and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA versus the A's. Oakland also has been terrible when facing lefties losing 22 of the past 30 times.
04-13-17	Dodgers v. Cubs -120		0-4	Win	100	2 h 23 m	Show
I'm a fan of lefty Brett Anderson, especially when he's healthy and pitching for a great team like he is now backed by an outstanding defensive infield. The Dodgers struggle versus southpaws. They also have injuries. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be making his second start coming back from serious arm woes. He's not ready to go deep into games. The price is low enough to back the superior, healthy team with the pitching edge.
04-12-17	Astros -109 v. Mariners		10-5	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Seattle has problems. That's evident by the Mariners' 2-7 start. Shortstop Jean Segura is on the DL and the team isn't hitting ranking 28th in batting. I don't see things improving for the Mariners in this game, not with a pitching matchup of Mike Fiers versus Yovani Gallardo. Fiers posted a 1.98 ERA during spring training and was sharp in his regular season debut holding Kansas City to one earned run in six innings. He hasn't allowed more than three walks in a game for the past 35 starts. Fiers pitched once last year at Safeco Field and shut out the Mariners pitching six innings. Gallardo is a shot pitcher, far removed from his All-Star days of seven years ago. Gallardo has lost a lot on his fastball. He posted a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last season in 23 starts and wasn't impressive during spring training with an 0-2 mark and 7.47 ERA in five outings.