Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover MLB Money Lines Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-24-22	Mets v. Giants -127	Top	12-13	Win	100	19 h 29 m	Show
Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them. The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games. Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts. Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class.
05-24-22	Cubs -103 v. Reds		11-4	Win	100	9 h 47 m	Show
The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball. Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts. The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen.
05-23-22	Phillies -115 v. Braves		7-3	Win	100	19 h 56 m	Show
The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings.
05-20-22	Tigers v. Guardians +105		1-6	Win	105	19 h 43 m	Show
The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts.
05-19-22	Reds v. Guardians -123		4-2	Loss	-123	12 h 12 m	Show
I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. Just how bad are the Reds? They rank last in pitching, have the worst defense and bullpen and are 28th in batting at .216. They are 4-17 on the road. Cincinnati actually no-hit the Pirates this past Sunday - and still lost! The Indians are 9-6 in their last 15 games. They are getting a huge season from superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez, who leads the league in RBI's. Mahle has been terrible when pitching on the road with a 6.50 ERA. Quantrill has settled in as a reliable middle-of-the-road type starter. He has a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
05-17-22	Giants v. Rockies +147		10-7	Loss	-100	10 h 26 m	Show
The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type. The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field. The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here.
05-16-22	Astros +106 v. Red Sox	Top	3-6	Loss	-100	20 h 45 m	Show
If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category. The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season.
05-15-22	Royals v. Rockies -133		8-7	Loss	-133	14 h 16 m	Show
The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado.
05-14-22	Red Sox +109 v. Rangers		11-3	Win	109	8 h 9 m	Show
The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night. Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers. The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role.
05-14-22	Orioles +106 v. Tigers		0-3	Loss	-100	6 h 54 m	Show
The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season. Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles. Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts. The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best. The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties.
05-13-22	Blue Jays v. Rays +114		2-5	Win	114	9 h 28 m	Show
The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees. I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays. The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts. Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays.
05-12-22	Yankees +132 v. White Sox		15-7	Win	132	19 h 51 m	Show
The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers. Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts. Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage.
05-09-22	Phillies v. Mariners -111		9-0	Loss	-111	10 h 16 m	Show
Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher. The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs. It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts.
05-07-22	Marlins v. Padres -113		8-0	Loss	-113	11 h 43 m	Show
Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home. Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties. Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games.
05-05-22	Nationals v. Rockies -130		7-9	Win	100	6 h 3 m	Show
I have this one marked much higher. I don't believe the oddsmaker is giving the Rockies and their starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, enough respect here. The right-handed Senzatela has proven he can pitch well at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-3 during the last 13 games he's pitched there. He has a 3.12 ERA in this span. The Nationals have lost 25 of the last 36 games they've gone against a righty starter. Washington starter Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good for years - and he's not good this season with a 6.75 ERA.
05-04-22	Rays -117 v. A's		3-0	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
The buy sign is on for Corey Kluber and the price is low enough to back the Rays against the sinking A's. Kluber, a two-time AL Cy Young Award winner, held the Twins to one run on one hit with six strikeouts in a 6-1 win during his last start this past Friday. The A's have the fifth-lowest batting average in baseball. They've also lost five in a row. They are a bad team, much inferior to the Rays. ''Offensively, we're in a bit of a funk,'' A's manager Mark Kotsay was quoted as saying after the A's lost to the Rays last night. ''I think overall as a group, a lot of guys are probably pressing.'' Frankie Montas gets the start for Oakland. Montas is traditionally a slow starter and that's the case again this season as he has a 4.25 ERA. Tampa Bay also holds a strong bullpen edge.
05-03-22	Nationals v. Rockies -148	Top	10-2	Loss	-148	19 h 22 m	Show
The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde. Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA. Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved. Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games.
05-02-22	Mariners v. Astros -119	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 6 m	Show
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston. I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year. Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros.
05-01-22	Reds v. Rockies -145		1-10	Win	100	13 h 15 m	Show
The Reds have the worst record in the majors and it's not even close. They are 3-18. Cincinnati has dropped nine road games in a row. I went against the Reds at Coors Field on Friday and Saturday. I see no reason to change for today's game. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is off to a slow season at 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA. But Reds starter Reiver Sanmartin has been even worse at 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA. This is an action play for me, though, to just keep fading the Reds.
05-01-22	Red Sox -145 v. Orioles		5-9	Loss	-145	11 h 7 m	Show
I see the Red Sox bouncing back after suffering a 2-1 extra inning loss to the Orioles on Saturday. Baltimore's most effective relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez, went two innings to get the win in that game. So don't expect Lopez to pitch in this game if needed. Even with that victory, the Orioles are still only 18-37 during their past 55 home games. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus Jordan Lyles. Pivetta is inconsistent. But he is 6-1 career-wise against Baltimore. Lyles is just plain bad. It's a mystery how he stays in a big league rotation. He has a 5.40 ERA this season. The Orioles are likely to be missing Trey Mancini, who is dealing with bruised ribs. While the Red Sox are expected to get back slugger J.D. Martinez from a groin injury that has sidelined him for the past three games.
04-30-22	Reds v. Rockies -135		3-4	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
The Reds have become an auto-fade with their 27th ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Cincinnati is 3-17 and has lost four in a row. The Rockies defeated the Rockies by six runs at home last night. Now Colorado has its hottest pitcher going, Chad Kuhl. He's made strong adjustments to his game and is off to a 2-0 start with a 1.10 ERA. Kuhl hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his three starts. Things don't figure to improve for the Reds in this game as they are starting fill-in pitcher Connor Overton to make his season debut. I'm not expecting much from Overton pitching at Coors Field.
04-30-22	Cubs v. Brewers -160	Top	1-9	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation.
04-30-22	Mariners +110 v. Marlins		1-3	Loss	-100	7 h 1 m	Show
In Robbie Ray we trust. The Marlins are hot, but Seattle is an underdog and has the superior starting pitcher going here with Ray. Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. The lefty has a 2.12 career ERA in nine appearances against the Marlins. Ray should be able to neutralize three of the Marlins' hotter players - Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle and Jesus Sanchez - all of whom are lefthanded. The Marlins are 20-33 against southpaws going back to last season. The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.77 ERA.
04-29-22	Reds v. Rockies -112	Top	4-10	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds.
04-27-22	Mets v. Cardinals +106		5-10	Win	106	13 h 15 m	Show
The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz. Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter.
04-26-22	Guardians +148 v. Angels		1-4	Loss	-100	10 h 10 m	Show
The Guardians are due for a victory. I see them getting it here in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie versus Patrick Sandoval. I'm high on the right-handed McKenzie, who has a 2.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. The free-swinging Angels are a bad fit against him. The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games against a righty starter. I'm not a fan of Sandoval, who has a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 ratio in two previous starts against the Guardians. The Angels are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. They also have dropped 10 of their last 14 games to the Guardians at home.
04-25-22	Astros -130 v. Rangers		2-6	Loss	-130	10 h 4 m	Show
The Astros have dominated the Rangers winning 40 of the past 59 times. I expect that domination to continue this season. This price still is low enough to back Houston in a pitching matchup of Framber Valdez versus Dane Dunning. Valdez had his way with the Rangers last season going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Dunning isn't going to be able to slow down a strong Houston lineup especially with a weak bullpen behind him. Dunning is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two career appearances against Houston. He has a 5.68 ERA this season.
04-22-22	White Sox -103 v. Twins		1-2	Loss	-103	8 h 15 m	Show
Healthy now, this is the year of Michael Kopech. I really believe that. I drafted him way ahead of his average draft position in my Rotisserie baseball league and so far Kopech is living up to his high ceiling with a 1.00 ERA through two starts. Kopech has given up just three hits - only one extra base hit - in nine innings. Opponents are batting .107 against him. Look for Kopech to continue his hot hand against the Twins. He's 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 1.29 ERA. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has a 3.27 ERA. Ober has potential, too, but he's not the prospect Kopech is. Ober has a 4.76 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in five starts. This isn't a good situational spot either for the Twins returning home after concluding a seven-game road trip yesterday.
04-21-22	Cardinals v. Marlins -125		0-5	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
The Marlins have trouble with the Cardinals. They've lost the first two games of the series to them. That makes eight straight losses to St. Louis. But circumstances and Pablo Lopez should put an end to that skid. The price is right to back St. Louis with Lopez going against what should be a St. Louis bullpen game. Lopez is at his best at home and during the first half of the season. He's 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA this season. Career-wise, he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP when pitching at LoanDepot Park, formerly Marlins Park. Jordan Hicks is scheduled to make his first start for St. Louis after 114 relief appearances. Hicks is in comeback mode after his season ended in early May last year because of a serious elbow injury. He's not expected to pitch deep into the game.
04-20-22	Rays v. Cubs +101		8-2	Loss	-100	7 h 33 m	Show
Fatigue, an overworked bullpen and playing on a grass surface all work against the Rays in this matchup. So does facing Marcus Stroman. This is enough to put me on the Cubs. Tampa Bay hasn't been sharp with a 6-6 record. This will be the Rays' 13tht straight day of playing. Their first off day comes Thursday. Their best reliever, Andrew Kittredge, had to work two innings to get a save on Tuesday. The Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games on grass, which is an off-surface for them. Stroman is solid. I prefer him at home against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen.
04-18-22	Phillies v. Rockies +152		1-4	Win	152	10 h 5 m	Show
Like many teams the Phillies struggle in Colorado. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 games at Coors Field. Yet they are mid-sized favorites here starting Aaron Nola. I find this line to be mispriced because of that. Nola wasn't good last season. He had a 4.63 ERA and surrendered 26 homers. He hasn't been good this season in two starts with a 6.75 ERA. Chad Kuhl gets the start for Colorado. He has a 2.08 ERA this season and is 2-0 lifetime with a 2.70 ERA in five appearances against Philadelphia, including three starts.
04-18-22	Rays v. Cubs +133		2-4	Win	133	9 h 3 m	Show
I'm sure by the end of the season the Rays will have a much better record than the Cubs. But right now Tampa Bay doesn't deserve to be such a large road favorite against the Cubs. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games. The Cubs are back home for the first time since their opening series against the Brewers when they took two of three. The pitching matchup is Shane McClanahan versus Kyle Hendricks. I like McClanahan, but not enough to back him in this spot with the Rays not playing well.
04-17-22	Braves v. Padres -126		1-2	Win	100	8 h 20 m	Show
Yu Darvish can mix in a clinker with gems. But he's worth this short price at home against the Braves, who are going with Byrce Elder, their No. 6 starter. Darvish had a 3.38 home ERA with a 0.95 WHIP last season. The prideful Darvish shut out the Diamondbacks in six innings during his first start. However, he was bashed by the Giants in his second start, not even making it to the second inning. I see him bouncing back here.
04-17-22	Astros +100 v. Mariners		2-7	Loss	-100	5 h 20 m	Show
The Astros are the superior team so I'm interested in backing them in this price range. The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus rookie Matt Brash. Urquidy has proven solid. He has a 1.80 ERA this season and a 3.38 career ERA versus the Mariners in four appearances. Brash is an intriguing prospect, but he has yet to prove himself. The Mariners will be without one of their better hitters as Mitch Haniger is on the COVID-19 list. Houston has dominated the Mariners in Seattle winning 26 of the past 38 times there.
04-16-22	Cubs v. Rockies -121		6-9	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
The price is cheap enough to back the Rockies at home against a bad Cubs team. Colorado is pitching Antonio Senzatela. The righty knows how to pitch in high altitude going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last season. The Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 games versus righty starters. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Cubs. They are going to start Mark Leiter, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2018. I'm not expecting much from Leiter and a host of Cubs relievers facing a Rockies lineup that always hits much better when playing in Coors Field.
04-15-22	Cubs v. Rockies -113		5-6	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
I'm looking for the Rockies to bounce back at home after losing the series opener to the Cubs. Colorado is going with its best pitcher, German Marquez. He looked great in his first start this season, holding the powerful Dodgers to one run on three hits in seven innings pitching in Coors Field. Marquez, an All-Star last season, is 27-18 lifetime at Coors with a 4.67 ERA. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, too, but I'm willing to lay this short price to get Marquez and Colorado at home. The Rockies are 27-11 the past 38 times they've been favored while the Cubs are 19-49 the last 68 times they've been a 'dog.
04-14-22	Cubs v. Rockies -118	Top	5-2	Loss	-118	19 h 57 m	Show
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
04-13-22	Mets +106 v. Phillies		9-6	Win	106	13 h 50 m	Show
Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games. So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer. I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA. Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors.
04-12-22	Mariners +111 v. White Sox		2-3	Loss	-100	4 h 29 m	Show
There will be times to play on the White Sox. This isn't one of them. Not in a pitching matchup of Matt Brash versus Vince Velasquez. Brash is the Mariners' top pitching prospect. He struck out 12 during 9 1/3 innings in spring training. He draws a White Sox lineup that is missing several key bats, including Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock. But this handicap also is a fade on Velasquez, who I now consider a lower-end starter. Velasquez was 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games with the Phillies and Padres last season proving unreliable in 21 starts. The Mariners have a tremendous knack for winning close games. They are 7-2 the past nine times as underdogs and 21-8 in their last 29 road games.
04-11-22	Padres v. Giants -139	Top	4-2	Loss	-139	21 h 42 m	Show
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
04-11-22	Brewers -139 v. Orioles		0-2	Loss	-139	16 h 34 m	Show
Same old Orioles. Baltimore is 0-3 to begin this season getting swept by the Rays by a combined margin of 28-9. The Orioles struck out 37 times in their 3-game series against the Rays and were 2-for-24 with runners in scoring position. The Rays are an excellent team. So are the Brewers. Milwaukee got its confidence up nipping the Cubs, 5-4, Sunday after losing the first two games of the series. The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser versus Bruce Zimmermann. Houser is one of the more underrated backend starters. He went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last season. Houser had a 2.50 ERA in day games last season. He's backed by a deep and talented bullpen, one of the best in baseball. Zimmermann had a 5.04 ERA last season. That hideous ERA was even worse in day action last season at 6.23 ERA and was 5.33 in April. Baltimore remains a terrible home team at 28-58 during its past 86 home contests.
04-10-22	Astros -105 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	15 h 25 m	Show
The Astros are the stronger team with better depth and they should have their main bats in after resting several key players on Saturday night. Angels starter lefty Jose Suarez has a career ERA of 5.70. The Astros are 7-3 the past 10 times going against a southpaw starter. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is solid. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and had a 0.99 WHIP last season. The Angels are just 3-12 in their last 15 home games.
04-10-22	Marlins v. Giants -120	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA.
04-10-22	Indians -102 v. Royals		17-3	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
The Guardians have held the Royals to four runs during the first two games of this series. Yet Cleveland is 0-2. The Royals are far from a power. So they shouldn't be favored when Cleveland has a starting pitched edge, which they do here. I'll take righty Cal Quantrill against Kris Bubic. Quantrill was 8-3 with a 2.89 and 1.18 WHIP last year. Bubic was 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Royals were 48-64 against right-handed starters last season.
04-09-22	White Sox -128 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
The White Sox blew Friday's opener against the Tigers. But they are much the superior team. I expect them to bounce back today with Dylan Crease. Crease has dominated the Tigers going 11-0 with a 1.82 ERA against them. Casey Mize goes for Detroit. He's talented, but hasn't been a big innings pitcher. That puts the Tigers' vulnerable bullpen into play.
04-08-22	White Sox -129 v. Tigers		4-5	Loss	-129	12 h 13 m	Show
The price is low enough to get involved with the White Sox especially facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The White Sox crush lefties with a lineup that leans heavily on right-handed batters. The White Sox have won 40 of their last 58 games when going against a southpaw starter. Rodriguez is on the downside of his career. He had a 4.74 ERA last season. The Tigers should be improved, but the White Sox are easily the class of the AL Central Division. Chicago is pitching its ace, Lucas Giolito.
04-07-22	Mets v. Nationals +120	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	18 h 14 m	Show
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz.
10-31-21	Astros -111 v. Braves	Top	9-5	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
10-27-21	Braves +107 v. Astros		2-7	Loss	-100	10 h 48 m	Show
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since.
10-20-21	Astros +112 v. Red Sox	Top	9-1	Win	112	8 h 51 m	Show
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
10-16-21	Dodgers v. Braves +122		2-3	Win	122	9 h 2 m	Show
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games.
10-08-21	Red Sox v. Rays -135		14-6	Loss	-135	8 h 32 m	Show
Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out.
10-02-21	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134		2-11	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Zac Gallen. He was one of the most promising pitchers in baseball until injuries derailed him. But he's back now and looking great. Just ask the powerful Dodgers. Gallen held LA to one run on three hits in six innings last Saturday in a 7-2 victory. Gallen also was sharp recently against Colorado. He shut the Rockies out on three hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and only one walk on Aug. 21. The Diamondbacks are motivated not to finish with the worst record in team history. They are furious about blowing a huge lead to the Rockies on Friday. Colorado is a terrible road team with a 26-52 away mark.
10-02-21	Mets +113 v. Braves		5-6	Loss	-100	9 h 1 m	Show
The Braves rested several regulars in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Mets and they are going to sit out a number of key starters again today. The Braves have their playoff ticket punched so they don't care about this game. It's a bullpen game for Atlanta with Jesse Chavez being the nominal starter. A bunch of young pitchers for Atlanta could see action here. The Mets are going with veteran Carlos Carrasco. New York's best everyday players should be in the lineup with their careers on the line as the Mets decide the future course of their team.
10-02-21	Reds -154 v. Pirates		6-8	Loss	-154	8 h 6 m	Show
The Pirates embarrassed the Reds on Friday. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati today. It's a meaningless game, but I do believe prideful Tyler Mahle will dominate the Pirates. He's facing a bad pitcher in Max Kranick. Mahle has had a career year with 13 victories, 12 quality starts and 204 strikeouts. He has been at his finest away from hitter Great American Ball Park where he's 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA. The Pirates rank 30th in homers and RBI's. Kranick is a horrible pitcher on a horrible team. He's 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
10-01-21	Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks		9-7	Win	100	11 h 57 m	Show
Arizona owns the worst record in baseball at 50-109. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 home games. So anytime I can lay a short price against them, especially with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look to do that. Veteran Jon Gray goes for Colorado. Gray has failed to live up to No. 1 starter status with Colorado, but he's decent given that he has a 4.28 ERA and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Rookie Humberto Castellanos also has a 4.28 ERA. He has made only six big league starts. The Rockies have lost 24 fewer games than the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 6-24 in its last 30 games. Colorado is on a two-game win streak. The Rockies are 26-10 the past 36 times when favored.
10-01-21	Indians -116 v. Rangers		9-6	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
Sometimes you can find good spots and value in meaningless games. That's what we have in this matchup. Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA. Bad numbers. However, Morgan is coming off two well-pitched games against strong offenses. Morgan held the Yankees and White Sox to a combined one run and seven hits in 12 innings during his past two starts. Now Morgan steps way down in class to face the Rangers. Texas is tied with Pittsburgh for the third-worst record in baseball at 59-100. The Rangers are pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA. He's never gone more than four innings. The Indians usually do the job when favored, winning 16 of the last 22 times in that role.
09-30-21	Brewers +101 v. Cardinals		3-4	Loss	-100	13 h 34 m	Show
The Brewers snapped the Cardinals' 17-game win streak Wednesday night winning, 4-0. Mission accomplished, though, for the Cardinals. They have earned a wild-card berth. This is a quick turnaround being an early start. The Cardinals have to be a bit deflated with their win streak - the longest in the majors in five years - now history. The pitching matchup is southpaw Brett Anderson, who has a 4.30 ERA, versus lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 5.86 ERA. The prideful veteran Anderson won't lack motivation after the Cardinals knocked him out in the second inning just eight days ago. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times going against a lefty starter. Milwaukee has been a top road club, too, winning 38 of its last 54 away contests. The Cardinals still could be missing star catcher Yadier Molina. He's been out the last two games due to shoulder stiffness.
09-28-21	Nationals v. Rockies -133	Top	1-3	Win	100	19 h 51 m	Show
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
09-28-21	Rays v. Astros -130		3-4	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
I rarely go against the Rays. I have tremendous respect for them and their manager, Kevin Cash. However, I have no respect for Michael Wacha. I think he's terrible. So I'm going to fade Wacha and his 3-5 record and 5.49 ERA and back the Astros knowing there are favorable angles backing Houston. Such as: Houston is 54-18 (75 percent) following a day off. Houston also gets up for the best competition going 11-3 the past 14 times versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Rays have had problems when playing at Houston losing five of the past six times there. The Astros are going with Jose Urquidy, who is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He's superior to Wacha, who has a 6.14 career ERA versus the Astros having made two relief appearances against them. Wacha has a fat 5.82 ERA during his last 12 overall starts.
09-28-21	Phillies v. Braves -114		1-2	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
I have a lot of respect for Zach Wheeler. The righthander has been very good this season. I have far less respect for the Phillies' 34-41 road record. I also respect Charlie Morton, especially in big games such as this one. Morton has come on after a slow beginning with the Braves to post a 2.95 ERA in his last 18 starts. The price is low enough for me to back the home Braves. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Braves also have won the past seven times when facing a righty starter.
09-27-21	White Sox v. Tigers +150		8-7	Loss	-100	11 h 28 m	Show
After 10 consecutive road games, the White Sox were looking forward to a day off Monday and then finishing the regular season at home. That's not going to happen, though. Because of a rainout, the White Sox have to make this stop in Detroit before coming home to play their last five regular season games. The White Sox are the AL Central Division champions. But they are just one game above .500 since the All-Star break. They can't be too excited about this game either. Perhaps the White Sox should be favored. But certainly not by this high of a price in a pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel versus Matt Manning. The 33-year-old Keuchel is 8-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He has his worst strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2012 when he was a rookie. He's faced the Tigers three times this season and has a 6.00 ERA against them. The current Tigers roster is batting .324 against him. Manning is one of the Tigers' prize prospects. The rookie has had his ups and downs with a 4-6 record and 5.73 ERA. However, Manning has been pitching better allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
09-24-21	Mets v. Brewers -130		1-5	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
Neither the Mets nor Brewers are playing well right now. Milwaukee just got swept four games by the Cardinals. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball winning 12 in a row. The Brewers just happened to run into the Cardinals. Now they drop down in class facing the Mets. The Mets have lost 11 of the past 12 times they've played the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are the better team and have the stronger pitching matchup here with Eric Lauer versus Tylor Megill. Lauer is sailing below-the-radar with a 1.83 ERA in his last 13 appearances, which includes 12 starts. He's backed by a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Megill started well, but has hit a rookie wall. He has a 6.31 ERA. in his last seven starts.
09-23-21	Giants -102 v. Padres		6-7	Loss	-102	15 h 15 m	Show
Too much undeserved respect is being given to the Padres here. All the Giants do is win. They are 15-4 in their last 19 games and have been the most profitable team for bettors this season with the best record in baseball. The Giants also have their most effective pitcher going - Logan Webb. The season record shows Webb at 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA. But that's counting a slow start. Webb hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in 16 of his last 18 starts. He also hasn't lost a game since May 5. The Padres have collapsed. Yu Darvish hasn't helped. He's been a major disappointment with an 8-10 record and 4.13 ERA. Darvish has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He's recorded just one victory since June 21. Given the pitching matchups and price, it's a no-brainer to back the Giants.
09-22-21	Twins v. Cubs +106		5-4	Loss	-100	8 h 26 m	Show
I'm going to side with veteran Kyle Hendricks at a plus price pitching at home against rookie Joe Ryan. Hendricks is having a disappointing season, but he's a proven commodity and he knows how to navigate tricky winds at Wrigley Field. Those are the weather conditions in today's games with winds at 23 mph blowing in. Hendricks won't lack motivation as this likely will be his final home start. Ryan has looked good for Minnesota - but the sample is short. This is his fourth big league start. Two of them came against the weak-hitting Indians. The other was against these same Cubs, who got to him for three runs in five innings on Sept. 1. So the Cubs are familiar with Ryan. Note the Twins are 0-5 the past five times they've been interleague favorites.
09-21-21	Royals v. Indians -138	Top	1-4	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
09-18-21	Mariners +101 v. Royals		1-8	Loss	-100	8 h 52 m	Show
The Mariners are 13 games better than the Royals, have more to play for being in the wild-card race and are 7-0 in their last seven games in Kansas City. Yet, the Mariners opened slight underdogs. The pitching matchup of Yusei Kikuchi versus Kris Bubic doesn't justify that. Both are lefthanders. The Royals hit lefties better and have a winning record against southpaws at 25-22. Seattle, though, is 31-25 versus lefty starters. Kikuchi is 7-8 with a 4.23 ERA. He permitted just one run in five innngs during his last start this past Sunday against the Diamondbacks. He recorded eight strikeouts. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings when he faced the Mariners on Aug. 27 allowing five runs on nine hits.
09-17-21	Padres v. Cardinals -130	Top	2-8	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
09-15-21	Indians -104 v. Twins	Top	12-3	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
09-13-21	Red Sox v. Mariners +115		4-5	Win	115	20 h 53 m	Show
The Mariners don't generate much respect, but they are a feisty, underrated crew that is dangerous as home 'dogs. Seattle is 11-5 the past 16 times taking a plus price at home. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games with its two victories during this span occurring by one run each. The Red Sox have been struggling on the road dropping 15 of their last 22 away contests. Seattle is 8-5 in its last 13 games with three of those defeats coming by a single run. The pitching matchup is Eduardo Rodriguez versus Logan Gilbert. Rodriguez has a disappointing 5.15 ERA. He was racked by the Rays in his last start this past Tuesday giving up six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Gilbert also has a high ERA. However, the Mariners are 10-5 when they've been an underdog with Gilbert on the mound. Gilbert may dodge Red Sox power-hitter J.D. Martinez, who has missed the last three games due to back spasms.
09-13-21	Cardinals -105 v. Mets		7-0	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Maybe Adam Wainwright isn't over the hill. The 40-year-old is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA. He's finishing the season strong, too, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts. Wainwright is 7-2 on the road. Mets starter Rich Hill is even older than Wainwright at 41. The southpaw is 3-4 at home with a 4.22 home ERA. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 16 road games. They have won six straight away contests when facing a lefty starter. St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five games at the Mets. The situation isn't good for the Mets either having played the late Sunday night game against their subway rivals the Yankees.
09-09-21	Royals +105 v. Orioles		6-0	Win	105	19 h 55 m	Show
It's rare to see the Orioles a home favorite. It's even more rare to see them win in that role - or any other role. Baltimore is 2-8 the past 10 times it has been home chalk. I don't believe the Orioles should be priced higher than the Royals in a pitching matchup of Carlos Hernandez against southpaw John Means. Hernandez is flying below the radar going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during his last seven appearances spanning 42 1/3 innings. Means is the only decent starter in Baltimore's rotation. But he could be hitting the wall having already pitched 119 1/3 innings this season compared to 43 2/3 last year. The Royals have won 15 of the last 22 times they've faced a lefty starter. The Royals aren't going to lack motivation either after blowing a 5-0 eighth inning lead on Wednesday.
09-09-21	Twins v. Indians -133		1-4	Win	100	18 h 59 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the top-five teams - when it comes to burning money. I'm going to fade the Twins again at this reasonable price in a pitching matchup of Randy Dobnak versus Cal Quantrill. Dobnak is 1-7 with a 7.64 ERA. Quantrill has had a nice season for the Indians. Before suffering a bad outing against the Red Sox six days ago, Quantrill had gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his previous 16 starts. Minnesota is 11 games below .500 when playing on the road. The Indians usually are reliable as home chalk having won 36 of the past 51 times in that role.
09-08-21	Twins v. Indians -125	Top	3-0	Loss	-125	15 h 7 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
09-07-21	Phillies v. Brewers -102	Top	0-10	Win	100	22 h 50 m	Show
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
09-06-21	Twins v. Indians +117		5-2	Loss	-100	16 h 38 m	Show
I'm not buying the Twins as a road favorite. Minnesota is 3-7 in its last 10 road contests and has been one of the biggest underachievers of the season with a 59-77 record. The Indians, by contrast, are two games above .500. So is the pitching matchup that great where Minnesota should be favored? Nope. It's rookie Bailey Ober versus Logan Allen. Ober has a 3.98 ERA. The Indians counter with Logan Allen, who is pitching his best ball. Allen has allowed just two earned runs during his past two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. Allen might avoid power-hitter Miguel Sano, who is second on the Twins in homers and RBI's. Sano is questionable with a shoulder injury.
09-06-21	Giants v. Rockies +157	Top	10-5	Loss	-100	14 h 46 m	Show
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
09-03-21	Braves v. Rockies +129	Top	3-4	Win	129	19 h 40 m	Show
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game.
09-01-21	Astros -125 v. Mariners	Top	0-1	Loss	-125	5 h 57 m	Show
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts.
08-31-21	Braves v. Dodgers -177		2-3	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
It's a decent-size price against a respectable opponent, but it's still worth laying with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler is your probable Cy Young Award winner in the National League. He's 13-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 26 starts. He's been absolutely magnificent this month with a 1.35 ERA in five August starts. Buehler has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last nine starts. The Braves are familiar with Buehler. He beat them twice in the NLCS last year, giving up one run in 11 innings. Charlie Morton can't compete against those standards. Morton is 12-5 with a 3.60 ERA. He was touched for four runs in five innings against the Yankees during his previous start. The Dodgers have stepped up their game, too, going 14-3 in their last 17 games.
08-30-21	Twins v. Tigers +112	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	15 h 60 m	Show
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
08-28-21	Padres -118 v. Angels		2-10	Loss	-118	9 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on the Padres after San Diego shut out the Angels, 5-0, Friday. That halted the Padres' four-game losing streak and restored confidence. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games with that lone win occurring against the Orioles. The pitching matchup is Ryan Weathers versus Suarez. I'm not a fan of Weathers, but Suarez isn't imposing either with a 6.21 ERA during his last six starts. The Padres have a far superior lineup with the Angels missing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
08-27-21	Brewers -125 v. Twins		0-2	Loss	-125	20 h 24 m	Show
This is one of the rare times where there is more value on the favorite than the underdog. Milwaukee is 28 games above and is 42-21 on the road. Minnesota is 17 games below .500. The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games, surrendering an average of 8.8 runs during this span. Brewers starter Eric Lauer is a bottom-of-the-rotation type, who doesn't get much respect. But look at who the Twins are pitching, Andrew Albers. He's a 35-year-old journeyman who had been out of the majors for the past four years until resurfacing this year. Lauer is good for 4-to-6 innings. He's given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He's a good fit for the Brewers because their bullpen is strong and deep. Milwaukee has its top bullpen arms rested, too. Albers will be making only his second appearance of the season and first start.
08-25-21	Dodgers -136 v. Padres	Top	5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
08-25-21	Tigers +127 v. Cardinals		2-3	Loss	-100	5 h 43 m	Show
Now that he's harnessed his control, Tarik Skubal has become a dangerous pitcher. He's also underrated. Skubal is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span is 17-to-2. The last time Skubal walked more than one batter in a game was two months ago. The Tigers are improved and the Cardinals have been disappointing. St. Louis is 2-5 in its last seven games and starting washed-up Jon Lester. The lefty has a 7.08 ERA in four starts with the Cardinals and is 3-6 lifetime versus Detroit with a 5.40 ERA in 13 career starts. Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight games against southpaw starters.
08-24-21	Angels -131 v. Orioles	Top	14-8	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month. Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League. Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances. Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span. The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins.
08-23-21	White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays		1-2	Loss	-107	14 h 49 m	Show
Better team, better starting pitcher laying a short price. That sums up why I like the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Lance Lynn versus Alek Manoah. The steady Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run during each of his last four road starts. The White Sox are expected to have shortstop Tim Anderson back in the lineup. He's the White Sox leading hitter at .303. Anderson has sat out the last two games due to general soreness. Toronto has dropped six of its last eight games. Manoah is an exciting young pitcher, who can rack up a lot of strikeouts. But he's inconsistent. Manoah gave up seven runs in just three innings during his last start, a 12-6 loss to the Nationals six days ago.
08-22-21	Angels v. Indians -127		0-3	Win	100	15 h 49 m	Show
The Indians are going for a three-game sweep here against the Angels, a team they dominate. Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games versus the Angels. The Angels have been tagged for 24 runs during their last three games. They are vulnerable again to giving up a lot of runs starting Jose Suarez. He's proving unworthy of holding down a big league starting spot allowing 17 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 25 innings. Suarez doesn't go deep into games either. Cal Quantrill is turning into a solid, trustworthy pitcher for Cleveland. He's 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 33 appearances, including 15 starts. Quantrill has surrendered just five earned runs in four starts this month totaling 24 innings.
08-22-21	White Sox +115 v. Rays		0-9	Loss	-100	9 h 58 m	Show
Often opponents struggle at quirky Tropicana Field when taking on the home Rays. Not the White Sox. They have shown they can handle Astroturf winning nine of the past 12 times on that surface. Chicago also is 6-2 in its last eight games at Tampa. The price is right to back the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Chris Archer. It's Archer who has the bigger name. But Lopez is the more effective pitcher. Lopez has pitched well both starting and out of the bullpen. He hasn't given up more than one earned run during any of his 11 appearances this season compiling a 2-0 mark and 1.08 ERA. He held the A's scoreless in five innings allowing only one hit during his last start this past Tuesday. Archer hasn't been good for the past few years. It's to the point where you must wonder if Archer is washed up? This will be his first start since coming off the 60-day injured list this week. He's 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA this year. Archer's walk ratio has gone up each of the last three seasons he's pitched. It remains to be seen how effective he can still be. He sure doesn't figure to pitch very long in this one.
08-20-21	Royals v. Cubs +104		6-2	Loss	-100	12 h 48 m	Show
The sting of having dealt away core stars Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo could be wearing off for the Cubs. They've won two in a row. But the respect for the Cubs remains well down. How down? The oddsmaker opened the Royals a road favorite with Kansas City starting Brad Keller. Keller is 7-12 with a 5.62 ERA. He's in bad form, too, going 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA during his last three starts. He has a 5.88 day time ERA. I'm not enamored of Cubs starter Zach Davies. But he's off a positive start holding the Marlins to three unearned runs on four hits in six innings this past Saturday. Davies struck out seven and walked just one. He is 3-1 in day games with a 2.85 ERA. I would take him above Keller. The Royals are bad on the road going 20-37.
08-15-21	Cardinals v. Royals +112	Top	7-2	Loss	-100	9 h 36 m	Show
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here. Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007. The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties. Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road. The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties. Wrong team favored here.
08-13-21	Astros -135 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	12 h 30 m	Show
Look for Zach Greinke to tame an Angels team that has scored 4 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. The Angels continue to be without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Greinke has pitched his best ball away from Houston. He's 5-0 on the road with a 2.67 ERA. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval is slated to go for Anaheim. He is 1-4 with a 3.50 home ERA. Sandoval has made four career appearances versus the Astros, including three starts, and is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA. Houston leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .278. The Astros also have the fourth-highest slugging percentage against southpaws in the majors. Houston has scored the most runs per game of any team in baseball.
08-13-21	Cubs v. Marlins -114		10-14	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
Miami pitcher Jesus Luzardo has a high ceiling. He's been disappointing early in his big league career with a 3-5 record and 7.36 ERA. But the Cubs have become an auto-fade in this type of price range. Luzardo could be in line now for a big game against a decimated Cubs lineup that no longer has the traded Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baer and also is minus injured players Wilson Contreras, Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward. The Cubs are in free-fall, losing 14 of their last 16, including the past eight. They've lost their last two games by a combined margin of 27-4. Adbert Alzolay is slated to start for Chicago. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. Alzolay deserves this record with a 5.90 ERA in his last 10 starts. Miami owns the superior bullpen now that the Cubs jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel. The Marlins were idle Thursday after upsetting the Padres, 7-0, two days ago. So their bullpen is rested. The Cubs, by contrast, are playing for the fifth time in four days.
08-12-21	Reds +137 v. Braves		12-3	Win	137	13 h 44 m	Show
Atlanta is playing well. But I see too much value on the underdog Reds here. Cincinnati has a better record than the Braves and has the hottest power hitter in the majors. Yes, Joey Votto has hit the most homers and driven in the most runs since the All-Star break. Calls of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Rookies Vladimir Gutierrez versus Kyle Muller compose the pitching matchup. I'll side with Gutierrez against the southpaw Muller. Gutierrez is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA during his last three starts. He's struggled at hitter-friendly Great American Park, but is 5-1 with a 3.11 ERA on the road. Muller is the opposite of Gutierrez in that he has pitched worse at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA. The Reds rank fourth in the National League in slugging percentage against lefties.
08-12-21	Cardinals -119 v. Pirates		7-6	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
I hold no illusions about Wade LeBlanc. He's a journeyman pure and simple. But with LeBlanc on the mound for the Cardinals, this a chance to fade the Pirates at a reasonable price. The Pirates may be the worst team in baseball righ tnow. They have dropped seven in a row, scoring only six runs during their last five games. They are 18-38 during their past 56 games. As far as the pitching matchup, I still would take LeBlanc over JT Brubaker, who is 4-11 with a 4.95 ERA. Brubaker has lost seven straight decisions and holds an 0-3 lifetime record against St. Louis with a 5.30 ERA in four appearances, including three starts.
08-11-21	Tigers -114 v. Orioles	Top	5-2	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses. I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.
08-10-21	Tigers +100 v. Orioles	Top	9-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line. Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders. The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter. Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA.
08-07-21	Marlins v. Rockies -155	Top	4-7	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts. Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season. Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that. The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.
08-05-21	Phillies -139 v. Nationals		7-6	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
The Phillies have won four in a row. They are chasing the Mets to win the NL East Division. The Nationals are in rebuild after dealing Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. Now throw in a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Joe Ross and this is more than a fair price to lay with Philadelphia. Nola is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in day games this season. Ross is 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA at home this year.
08-04-21	Braves -115 v. Cardinals	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 49 m	Show
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ. Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts. Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.