| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 04-03-21 | Giants -114 v. Mariners | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
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There wasn't a better pitching during spring training than San Francisco's Logan Webb, who went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in five starts. Webb's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 22-to-2. So I'll take a shot with Webb and the superior team against the lowly Mariners, who will be going with Chris Flexen, who was pitching in South Korea last season. Sure spring training statistics can't be trusted. But still I'd rather go with a hot spring training pitcher than Flexen, who has never proven himself in the majors and has a horrendous bullpen behind him. Already the Mariners' relief staff has given up five runs (four earned) during seven innings.
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| 04-03-21 | White Sox -119 v. Angels | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
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The White Sox are an emerging team with plenty of talent even minus highly-promising Eloy Jimenez. They are going with veteran Lance Lynn on the mound against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been one of the worst starters in the majors during the last three years going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. Those were with Baltimore. The Angels are hoping Cobb can emulate Dylan Bundy's success. Bundy, too, was with the Orioles before coming to the Angels and having much better results. I don't believe that's going to happen. Certainly not against the White Sox where Cobb's lifetime ERA is 13.89 in three starts versus Chicago. Lynn is much the better pitcher and he has a good history against the Angels. Lynn was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season. I much prefer the White Sox's bullpen over the Angels' relievers, too. The Angels received just three innings from Andrew Heaney on Friday so their bullpen already is getting stretched out.
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| 04-02-21 | Giants +116 v. Mariners | Top | 6-3 | Win | 116 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
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No way am I buying Yusei Kikuchi as a favorite. The left-handed Kikuchi has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors during his two-year stint compiling a 5.46 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 2019 and a 5.17 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP last season. San Francisco just faced a lefty starter on Thursday and scored five earned runs in six innings off Marco Gonzales, a much better pitcher than Kikuchi. Seattle has one of the worst bullpens in the majors, too. Giants starter Johnny Cueto isn't the star he was with the Reds, but he's still solid. I consider him the Giants' best starter. Cueto has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against Seattle in three starts. San Francisco's bullpen is better than it showed in its 8-7 extra inning loss to the Mariners on Thursday. The Mariners remain without perhaps their most talented player as outfielder Kyle Lewis has a knee injury. |
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| 10-27-20 | Rays +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
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The Rays have met adversity several times in the postseason. I expect them to live again and force Game 7 of the World Series. I'll take a plus price with Blake Snell against Tony Gonsolin. Snell should give the Rays five solid innings. I can't say that about Gonsolin, who hasn't pitched as well in the playoffs as he did during the regular season. Gonsolin has pitched 7 2/3 innings in the postseason giving up seven walks and three homers. I also trust the Rays' bullpen more than the Dodgers' relievers. Closer Kenley Jansen certainly can't be trusted anymore. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is saving Walker Buehler in case there's a Game 7. He said Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias will not pitch in this game. Those are the three best Dodgers pitchers.
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| 10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -145 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
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Momentum is crucial in the baseball playoffs. The Dodgers have it. The Rays don't. LA has won four in a row after being on the brink of elimination from the Braves. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games. The Rays haven't played well since going up 3-0 on the Astros in the ALCS. It doesn't hurt the Dodgers' chances that they are the superior team with both great hitting and pitching. The Dodgers led the Majors averaging 5.8 runs per game. They are averaging 5.5 runs in their last four games. Cody Bellinger has come alive smacking three homers during the last three games. The Rays don't have the offense to match LA's. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.1 runs in its last 10 games. The Rays are going with lefty Blake Snell, who has allowed seven runs in his last 14 postseason innings spread across three starts. He hasn't completed six innings during any of his playoff starts this season. This isn't the vintage Snell of three seasons ago. The Dodgers are 17-6 versus lefties this year, including 4-1 during the postseason. Tampa Bay is going up against Dodgers pitching that has allowed three or fewer runs in four straight games. The Rays are going to be looking at Tony Gonsolin and probably Julio Urias in this game. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in the regular season with a 0.84 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings. Urias has a 0.56 ERA and 4-0 record in 16 playoff innings this season spread across four appearances. The Dodgers have won 77 percent of the time they've been favored during the past 56 instances. |
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| 10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -116 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
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Hated or not, the Astros have done a great job winning three in a row to force a Game 7 in this ALCS. But I want the Rays going for me in this winner-take-all matchup. Tampa Bay has the much deeper bullpen, is the better fielding team and Kevin Cash is a superior manager to Dusty Baker. I also prefer Charlie Morton over Lance McCullers in the starting pitching matchup. Morton has given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in the postseason this year. He beat the Astros in Game 2 firing five scoreless innings. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 playoff appearances that includes 10 starts. McCullers is a feast-or-famine type pitcher. He's allowed five homers during his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The last four innings could be taken over by the bullpens. The Rays hold a big edge there especially with Houston's top bullpen guys dealing with fatigue issues.
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| 10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays -130 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
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The Astros have some momentum winning two in a row to keep their season alive down 3-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS. Only twice all season has Tampa Bay lost more than two in a row. I don't see the Rays losing a third consecutive game. Tampa Bay has the more established starting pitcher, superior bullpen and better manager. Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young Award three seasons ago. He's been strong this season and during the playoffs. Snell defeated Houston five days ago holding the Astros to one run in five innings. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who has posted solid numbers but has control issues and gives up the long ball. Valdez has issued seven walks in his 18 innings of postseason work and has surrendered three homers during his last two starts. |
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| 10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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I have nothing but admiration for Rays manager Kevin Cash. He's an out-of-the-box thinker and one of the best managers in baseball. He has the Rays on the verge of going to the World Series. Tampa Bay leads Houston 2-0 in the American League Championship Series. Now, though, is the time to step in with the Astros, who are 8-1 the last nine times they've been a playoff underdog. Tampa Bay has outscored Houston by just three runs in the two games. The Rays only have 10 hits in the series. The Astros have been dogged by leaving 21 men on base during these two games, victimized by outstanding and clutch Tampa Bay fielding plays and suffering bad luck and misfortune with some of their hard hit balls. Not that I feel sorry for the cheating Astros. But I do think they are due for a victory here. The starting pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA in five regular-season starts. This will be his third postseason start. The Rays have never faced him giving Urquidy the element of surprise. Yarbrough has never started a playoff game. The Astros rank in the top five against lefthanded pitching in batting average and a number of metric categories, including slugging percentage and OPS.
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| 10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
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The Braves have outclassed the Marlins during the first two games of this playoff series. But now the Marlins are an enticing underdog facing elimination in a battle of young starting pitchers. I prefer Sixto Sanchez against Atlanta's Kyle Wright. These two pitchers went up against each other on Sept. 8. It was no contest: Miami won, 8-0. That game was in Atlanta. This matchup is at neutral site Houston. Sanchez displayed his vast potential during his last start. That came six days ago against the Cubs in the postseason. Sanchez held the Cubs scoreless in five innings posting six strikeouts. Miami won that game, 2-0. Wright made eight regular-season starts going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. Career-wise against Miami in three starts, Wright is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA.
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| 10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -119 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
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I see the Rays bouncing back from their Game 1 loss to the Yankees on Monday. The Rays are 8-3 versus the Yankees this season and hold a starting pitching edge in a matchup of Tyler Glasnow versus 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia. Glasnow has lived up to his high ceiling when he has been healthy, which he is now. Tampa Bay has won during each of Glasnow's last nine starts this year. Garcia had a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings this season. I'd rather take my chances with Glasnow and lay a little higher juice.
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| 10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +137 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
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I don't get the Rays being an underdog especially in this high of a range. Tampa Bay won the AL East Division title. The Rays achieved this in part by defeating the Yankees in eight of 10 meetings. Yeah, I get righthander Gerrit Cole is going for New York. But Cole struggled against the Rays this season posting a 4.96 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, while surrendering five homers. The Rays are 31-12 against righty starters. Tampa Bay also has won 10 of the last 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Yankees go against lefty Blake Snell, the former Cy Young Award winner who was solid this season with a 3.24 ERA. Snell gave up three runs on four hits to the Yankees this season in eight innings. Snell was sharp in his last start this past Tuesday holding the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 2/3 innings allowing only one hit and striking out nine. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters. They ranked 25th in batting average against southpaws. Note that the game is being played at San Diego's Petco Park. This neutral site favors the Rays because of the spacious dimensions and being the premier pitcher's park. The Yankees are the more powerful team so they're hurt more by the ballpark configurations. |
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| 10-02-20 | Cardinals +105 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
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I'll take Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty against a motley crew of overworked Padres pitchers. The Padres' bullpen is extremely overworked after their first two game starters, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies, managed just a combined 4 1/3 innings. San Diego is in this jam because their two best starters, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, are injured. Flaherty didn't have the dominant season he had last year, but he's still darn good and has a strong history versus the Padres with a 1.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts. The Padres were averaging just 3.8 runs during their last 13 games until scoring 11 runs yesterday. |
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| 10-01-20 | Reds +121 v. Braves | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
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The Reds had the better starting pitcher going in Game 1 of this playoff series yesterday with Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati should have won, but lost 1-0 in 13 innings. The Reds outhit the Braves, 11-6, with three of Atlanta's hits coming in the 13th inning. Cincinnati stranded 13 baserunners going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. It was a highly frustrating loss not just for the underdog Reds, but anyone who had them on Wednesday me included. Now we have a similar situation. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going and once again are underdogs. Those two factors put me right back on Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has emerged as one of the National League's better pitchers during the last two years making the All-Star team last season. Castillo held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. Castillo is more proven than Ian Anderson, the Braves' highly promising rookie starter. This is just Anderson's seventh big league start. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Reds still have won 11 of their last 15 games. |
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| 09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
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The road White Sox were a sharp play against the A's in Tuesday's opening series game. But the dynamics are different for this Game 2 in a pitching matchup of lefty Dallas Keuchel versus Chris Bassitt. This isn't a fade on Keuchel, who has pitched well again this season. The A's, though, are 11-3 against lefties this season and Bassitt has been highly underrated. He's given up just one run during his last four starts spanning 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt has been particularly strong at home with a 0.72 ERA in six starts at Oakland Coliseum this season. The White Sox have lost the last seven times they've gone against a righty starter. Chicago also has lost the past six times it has been an underdog.
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| 09-30-20 | Reds +117 v. Braves | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
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Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers.
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| 09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -142 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
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The Twins, behind Jose Berrios, should take care of business at home against the Reds. Minnesota is 23-5 (82 percent) at home. That's the best home mark in baseball. The Reds have a losing road record. Berrios has a history of pitching his best at Target Field. He has a 2.67 ERA there this season holding batters to a .168 batting average. Berrios is in outstanding form, too, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts this month. Cincinnati has had a down year from many of its hitters. The Reds rank 30th in batting average and 28th in runs scored. The Reds also don't win when Tyler Mahle pitches. Mahle has a career Reds record of 13-25. His road ERA is 4.97 this season and he can be homer-prone. The Twins set a record for most homers last season and rank fifth in home runs this year. Minnesota won't lack incentive either being just one-half game ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central. |
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| 09-24-20 | Orioles +136 v. Red Sox | 13-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Red Sox have had some great years. This isn't one of them. Boston has a worse record than Baltimore. So I'm not buying the Red Sox being this large of a favorite against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus lefty Martin Perez. Both are lower-tier rotation type starters. Cobb was solid in his last outing giving up two runs on four hits in six innings this past Friday against the Rays. He's been solid, too, in two starts versus Boston this season giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings. Cobb's 4.76 season ERA is lower than Perez's lifetime ERA against the Orioles. Note, too, that the Orioles are a .500 team when going against a southpaw starter. |
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| 09-22-20 | Rays -122 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
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The Mets have to be way down after their playoff chances were dealt a big blow with a 2-1 home loss to the Rays on Monday. The Mets had Jacob deGrom going in that game while the Rays went with an opener, a strategy their manager, Kevin Cash, came up with a couple of years ago and that has been widely copied. The Mets were 12-2 in deGrom's previous 14 starts. Now the Mets have to deal with lefty Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Mets are 6-14 versus lefty starters this season. They have scored a combined three runs in three of their last four games. Snell is having a strong September with a 2.87 ERA. He's given up one run during his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Snell also is 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is 18-10 on the road. The Mets are 12-16 at home. The Mets are slated to start Seth Lugo, who is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Lugo is off a terrible performance against the Phillies where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in 1 1/2 innings this past Thursday. |
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| 09-18-20 | Twins v. Cubs -125 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
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The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16. The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill. Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts. Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws.
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| 09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -121 | 10-6 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
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I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is.
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| 09-16-20 | Royals -125 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
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The Royals had won six in a row until losing to the Tigers on Tuesday. The price certainly is reasonable to back the Royals in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Tarik Skubal. Singer is coming off his best start shutting out the Indians on one hit in eight innings with eight strikeouts this past Thursday. Singer threw a season-high 119 pitches in that game, but is pitching on five full day's rest. Singer draws a Tigers lineup minus injured second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who was leading the team in homers. Skubal has been terrible this season with a 7.27 ERA.
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| 09-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies +116 | 1-4 | Win | 116 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
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The Phillies are banged-up with multiple injuries. But I'm attracted to them as a home 'dog in a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello versus Jake Arrieta. I see the veteran Arrieta stepping up in the wake of injuries to starting pitchers Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard. Arrieta has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts. He holds a lifetime 3.17 ERA in 15 starts versus the Mets. Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 12 home games. It's an insult to Cy Young that Porcello once won that award. He may be the worst Cy Young Award winner of all-time. Porcello is nothing more than an innings-eater and not a very good one at that. He's been a major disappointment for the sucker Mets with a 1-4 record and 6.07 ERA. This is the Phillies' third look at Porcello this season. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. The Mets have lost seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Wrong team favored here. |
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| 09-12-20 | Angels v. Rockies -125 | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Angels are a fade away from home with a 6-16 road mark. Going back to last season, the Angels have lost 37 of their last 51 road contests. Now the Angels draw Kyle Freeland, an experienced Coors Park pitcher with a 2.80 ERA when pitching at night. The Angels are going with Jamie Barria, who has much to prove after going 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA last year.
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| 09-07-20 | Diamondbacks -105 v. Giants | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
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The only thing that can get me on the Diamondbacks these days is a pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Kevin Gausman. Gallen is great. Gausman is terrible. So at this price, I'm holding my nose and taking the Diamondbacks. Gallen is looking to extend his major league record of allowing three or fewer runs to begin a career to 24. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season. Gallen has been at his finest, too, during his last four starts with a 1.00 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. Gausman is having another typical Gausman year with a 4.43 ERA.
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| 09-07-20 | Phillies -110 v. Mets | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
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Zack Wheeler gets up for the Mets more than any other team. Wheeler was a mainstay in the Mets' rotation the previous two seasons, but was highly disappointed when the Mets let him walk in free agency without ever making an offer. Wheeler landed with the Phillies and has thrived going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA. He beat the Mets in mid-August, 6-2, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who has yet to make his mark. Philadelphia has won the past seven times it was favored.
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| 09-06-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -129 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
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You can see the white flag all the way from Arizona. The Diamondbacks are complete fade material. They are in rebuild mode and have lost 15 of their last 17 games. The price is right to back the much-better hitting Giants and Johnny Cueto, who is 11-3 lifetime with a 3.03 ERA in 17 career starts versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. Arizona is pitching Alex Young. He's a converted reliever who could be heading back to the bullpen after this start. He's 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA. |
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| 09-04-20 | Marlins v. Rays -125 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
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This price is within reason to get involved with the Rays. Miami has been a surprising 16-16 this season, but the Rays are an elite team especially at home. The Rays are 14 games above .500 this season. They have won 71 percent of their past 51 home games going back to last year. Tropicana Park is an unusual venue for opposing teams. One reason for this is artificial turf. The Marlins have lost 18 of the last 26 times they've played on astroturf. Miami starter righty Pablo Lopez has been surprisingly good this season with a 2.10 ERA. The Rays just saw him six days ago, winning that game, 4-0. The Rays are 19-7 versus righty starters this season. Tampa Bay is starting southpaw Josh Fleming. He also has been surprisingly good carrying a 1.74 ERA through his first two big league starts. He pitched against the Marlins last Saturday and held them scoreless on three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Miami is 3-8 versus lefty starters on the year. The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This includes a 3-game road sweep of the Marlins. Tampa Bay outscored Miami, 18-7, in that series.
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| 09-03-20 | White Sox -135 v. Royals | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
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The White Sox are 22-15. The Royals are 14-23. So these teams are playing out to their projections. The White Sox, with a boatload of young talent, were expected to make a major step while the Royals remain dregs. A big part of Chicago's success is its 11-0 record against lefthanded starters. The Royals are pitching lefty Danny Duffy. The White Sox are batting .303 versus southpaws, second-highest in the league. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.571) and highest OPS (.948) against lefties. Chicago just saw Duffy six days ago. The White Sox got to him for four runs (three earned) on seven hits, including two homers, in 5 2/3 innings. Duffy has a 5.60 career ERA versus the White Sox when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City draws highly-promising Dylan Cease, who displayed his vast potential finishing August by going 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 26 strikeouts in six starts. Cease may not have to deal with the Royals' most feared slugger as Jorge Soler left yesterday's game with an oblique irritation.
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| 09-02-20 | Nationals -114 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
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This is a low price to get an elite starter versus a No. 3 type pitcher with Max Scherzer facing Zach Wheeler. Scherzer may be past his prime, but he's still a dominant Tier 1 pitcher. He has a 3.86 ERA after a bad stretch. The buy sign is back on him, though, after his last performance. Scherzer gave up one run on six hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in six innings against the Red Sox this past Friday. Scherzer said he tweaked his mechanics and that made a difference. Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies. This includes a 5-0 mark with a 2.40 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. This isn't a huge fade on Wheeler, who has pitched well this season. He's just not in the class of Scherzer and the Phillies have a worse bullpen than the Nationals. Wheeler also has a bad history versus the Nationals with a 5-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 18 starts.
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| 08-30-20 | Nationals +101 v. Red Sox | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
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Austin Voth is off to a slow start after showing promise last year. He has a 6.65 ERA. Voth is better than he has shown. Voth, though, still is better than Red Sox starter Zack Godley, who has been Godley awful. He's 0-3 with a 7.29 ERA. The Nationals are familiar with Godley having faced him when he pitched for the Diamondbacks. Godley has a 5.53 career ERA versus the Nationals in 40 2/3 innings. Godley doesn't go deep into games either. That's going to be a real problem. The Red Sox have a terrible bullpen and their best relievers have fatigue issues.
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| 08-29-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -135 | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
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Arizona has been underachieving and Luke Weaver is on the comeback trail. But I see a buy sign on both of them today. The Diamondbacks halted an eight-game losing streak beating the Giants, 7-4, on Friday. That should stop the Diamondbacks from pressing and raise their confidence level. Weaver was on track to become one of the better young pitchers in baseball before an injury derailed him. But he's looked good in his last two starts posting a 2.53 ERA. Journeyman righthander Trevor Cahill goes for San Francisco. Cahill is pitching well above his norm with a 1.64 ERA after three starts. The Diamondbacks hit righties much better than lefties and Cahill is due for major regression. If Cahill was anywhere close to being this good, he wouldn't be on his eighth big league team. The Giants have lost six of the past seven times following a loss. The Diamondbacks usually do the job as home chalk winning 16 of the last 21 times in that role. |
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| 08-26-20 | Cubs -138 v. Tigers | 6-7 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
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Jon Lester was bit by the long ball bug in his last two starts surrendering a combined six homers to the White Sox and Brewers in his last two starts. I see Lester getting his act together facing the woeful Tigers while also being helped by the spacious dimensions of Comerica Park. Lester opened the season giving up just two runs during his first three starts. Lester is a medium-sized favorite because he's facing Michael Fulmer and a Detroit team that has lost 62 of its last 80 home games. The Tigers are letting Fulmer take his lumps as he recovers from Tommy John surgery having missed all of last season. Fulmer has given up 18 hits and 14 runs in 11 1/3 innings. That translates into a 9.53 ERA. He has yet to pitch more than three innings in a game this season. |
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| 08-24-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156 | 3-2 | Loss | -156 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
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The Rockies have fallen back to earth and are a fade on the road especially at Arizona. Colorado has lost 37 of its last 51 away games. The Rockies are 1-5 in their past six games at Chase Field. Arizona is going with Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.59 ERA. He's pitched well in four of his five starts. Colorado is pitching righthander Ryan Castellani, who just got battered by the Astros in his last start giving up five earned runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 versus southpaw starters, but 13-9 when facing righthanders. Arizona also is 15-3 the past 18 times as a home favorite. |
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| 08-24-20 | Angels v. Astros -148 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
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In a battle of lefty starters, I want emerging star Framber Valdez going for me at home against the Angels' Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval was bad last season. He's bad again this season with a 5.40 ERA. Sandoval has yielded at least one homer during each of his four starts this season. The Astros have several big hitters out, but got back Michael Brantley on Sunday. The Astros are 23-5 in their last 28 home games versus a lefty starter. Valdez has been one of the bright spots for Houston allowing three earned runs in 20 2/3 innings during his last three starts. It's rarely wrong to fade the Angels on the road where they are 16-36 in their past 52 away matchups.
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| 08-23-20 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks are much better against righties than southpaws going 13-8 versus righties as opposed to 0-7 against lefties. Righty Trevor Cahill will be making his third start replacing injured Jeff Samardzija. He's failed to go more than four innings in either of his starts. The Giants need their starters to go deep into games because their bullpen is so vulnerable. Cahill is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career appearances against the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver was emerging into a star before he was injured. The buy sign is back on Weaver as he rounds into shape. He's coming off his best start giving up one run on three hits in five innings in a 10-1 victory against the A's this past Tuesday. Weaver is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts against the Giants.
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| 08-23-20 | Rangers v. Mariners +122 | 1-4 | Win | 122 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
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How can the Rangers, losers of 7 in a row, be a road favorite pitching Mike Minor? How indeed? The Rangers have surrendered at least 6 runs in each of their losses during their losing streak. So I'll be on the home 'dog Mariners. Seattle will be starting Justin Dunn. I'm not betting the Mariners because of Dunn, although he beat the Rangers on Aug. 10 at Texas giving up just two runs in six innings. No, this handicap is a fade on the weak-hitting Rangers and the poor form of Minor. Minor hasn't been good since the first half of last season. He is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in five starts this season. The Rangers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating following 7-4 and 10-1 losses to the Mariners. Minor has a 5.05 ERA against the Mariners during the last three years.
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| 08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles +115 | 4-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
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In a matchup of bad starting pitchers, I'll take the plus price. That puts me on the home Orioles with a pitching matchup of Zack Godley versus Wade LeBlanc. I'm not a fan of journeyman LeBlanc. So this is a fade on the Red Sox. Godley has a 6.87 ERA. He's given up five homers in 18 innings. That's a red flag when pitching at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The Red Sox's bullpen is bad and depleted. It cost them the game yesterday. The Orioles average more runs per game than Boston and have hit more homers. Baltimore has scored 5 or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games.
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| 08-22-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles +111 | 4-5 | Win | 111 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying into the Red Sox being road chalk against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of lefty Martin Perez versus Alex Cobb. Cobb has been the better pitcher this season with a 3.76 ERA. Perez has a 4.07 ERA and walks too many batters. The Red Sox bullpen is bad plus depleted. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They have a winning record this year against southpaws. Baltimore averages 4.9 runs per game, which ranks 11th. Boston ranks 18th averaging 4.6 runs. The Orioles also have hit more homers than Boston.
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| 08-22-20 | Angels v. A's -135 | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
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The Angels are a terrible road club and they can't win in Oakland having lost seven of the past eight times there. The Angels are 16-36 in their past 52 road games. Consequently, the A's have won 39 of their last 52 home games. The pitching matchup is Griffin Canning versus Chris Bassitt. Canning has potential, but he's not in good form giving up seven runs during his last 8 2/3 innings. He has a 4.70 ERA on the season and a lifetime 4.73 ERA against the A's in 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt is 2-0 this season with a 2.93 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games, but he's solid and limits homers and walks. That should be enough for the superior A's to defeat the cold Angles, who have dropped eight of their last nine.
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| 08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +104 | 3-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
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All the A's do is win when Mike Fiers is on the mound. They are 22-6 in his last 28 starts. The righthander is off his best start of the year, giving up two runs in six innings against the Giants. The A's have been extremely tough, too, at home the past few seasons. This year is following that pattern. Oakland is 11-3 at RingCentral Coliseum. Andrew Heaney is in bad form allowing nine runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. He doesn't go deep into games either averaging fewer than five innings per start. The Angels are 1-4 in his past five starts. Like most clubs, the Angels have problems in Oakland dropping six of their last seven there. The Angels also are 6-20 in their last 26 road matchups versus righty starters.
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| 08-20-20 | Brewers v. Twins -112 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
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Nothing against righthanded Brandon Woodruff, a pitcher I like. But I'll lay a short home price with the much more powerful Twins and All-Star pitcher Jose Berrios. Berrios hasn't pitched like an All-Star this season. Note, though, this is just the righthander's third home start. The Twins won both of his previous starts at Target Field. Berrios has always pitched much better in Minnesota. Here's a comparison of his home/road ERA: At home - 2.41 ERA in 2017, 3.03 ERA in 2018 and 3.51 ERA in 2019. On the road - 5.17 ERA in 2017, 4.85 ERA in 2018 and 3.84 ERA in 2019. Berrios takes on a Milwaukee offense that so far has been way down. The Brewers rank 27th in batting average, 24th in runs and 24th in homers. The Twins led the majors in homers last year setting a record. They are seventh in homers this season. The Twins have won their last seven home games when facing a righty starter. Milwaukee is 6-13 the last 19 times going against a righty starter.
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| 08-18-20 | Nationals +111 v. Braves | 8-5 | Win | 111 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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The starting pitching choice is Austin Voth, or Josh Tomlin followed for sure by a bevy of Atlanta relief pitchers. In other words, this is an Atlanta bullpen game. I'll take Voth, a promising pitcher with a good history against the Braves. Voth holds a 2.70 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta in 16 2/3 innings. Tomlin has a 4.61 career ERA against the Nationals in eight appearances. This will be his first start since last season. Tomlin probably isn't going to pitch more than three or four innings putting the Braves' middle relievers into action. The Nationals' offense has picked up with a healthy Juan Soto. The blossoming superstar is batting .433 with six homers in his last eight games. Washington is averaging 7.5 runs in its last four games.
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| 08-16-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -142 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Rangers sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field. That could happen, though, if Colorado starter Jon Gray doesn't pitch better. If there's one area Gray does well, though, is beat American League teams at home. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in six career interleague starts at Coors. American League batters are hitting only .159 against him at Coors. Youngster Kolby Allard goes for the Rangers. He's never pitched at Coors Field.
The Rockies have been held in check for two games now scoring six runs against the Rangers. Their bats have yet to be held in check for three straight games all season. Colorado ranks first in batting average and has scored the third most runs in the majors. |
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| 08-13-20 | Nationals +120 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
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The Mets are a below average team both offensively and pitching-wise. The Nationals have begun the season slow, but now their offense is healthy. I expect them to make a move. Having Juan Soto back in the lineup makes a difference. Washington is averaging 8 runs during its last three games. I like Nationals starter Austin Voth. I think he's below-the-radar. He had a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last season. He has a 1.80 ERA this season while entering his prime. David Peterson hopes to show he can be a reliable starter for the Mets. Peterson is getting a chance because Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha and Noah Syndergaard are all out. My preference is Voth. It's a bonus to get him at a plus price in this matchup.
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| 08-12-20 | A's -104 v. Angels | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Angels sweeping the A's after winning the first two games of this series. Oakland is the far superior team so I'm attracted to the A's at this short price. A's starter Chris Bassitt is underrated. The righthander has pitched very well with a 1.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Oakland is 6-0 in Bassitt's last six starts. The Angels are 4-8 versus righties. They also have a losing record in day games. This isn't a fade on Angels starter Griffin Canning. He's coming off a tough start in a loss to the Rangers this past Friday. But he's a promising pitcher. I just like Bassitt, the situation where the A's are trying not to get swept and Oakland being the better team.
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| 08-11-20 | A's +138 v. Angels | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
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I can't help but be attracted to the better team getting a solid plus price. That's the case here. The A's are much superior to the Angels. They have been solid on the road, too, winning 12 of their last 16 away games. The Angels are favored being at home and because of how well Dylan Bundy has pitched this season. Bundy always flashed, but he never was this consistent when he was with the Orioles. The Angels are a much better fit for Bundy. I've always liked his potential. Perhaps, however, there is some regression coming. The basis of my handicap is a play on the A's and Mike Fiers at this 'dog price. All the A's do when the righthander pitches is win. They are 21-5 during Fiers' last 26 starts for 81 percent! This includes a 3-0 mark this season. The Angels have lost 39 of the last 52 times when they faced a righty starter.
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| 08-11-20 | Nationals -144 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
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This is one of those risk vs. reward matchups. If healthy, Max Scherzer versus Rick Porcello is a monster mismatch, far higher than what the lay price is now. But is Scherzer healthy? He only pitched one inning during his last start six days ago because he tweaked his hamstring. Indications are he is fine. He had a bullpen session on Sunday and everything went well. I don't think the Nationals would risk Scherzer if they weren't totally convinced he was 100 percent. The other hesitation I had was about Washington's hitting. But the Nationals broke out of their hitting slump in a big way on Monday scoring 16 runs against the Mets. Their lineup is healthy again. Juan Soto makes a huge difference. Porcello is nothing but a glorified innings-eater. His ERA on the season is 6.92.
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| 08-10-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -130 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
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Look at the National League standings and you'll find a surprise leader: the Colorado Rockies. They have the best mark in the NL at 11-4. The Rockies may be playing above their heads, but I like them to win here at home against the 6-10 Diamondbacks. Colorado is pitching its ace, Jon Gray. Arizona is going with lefty Robbie Ray. The Rockies are 7-0 the past seven times facing a southpaw starter. Ray is a great strikeout artist, but a mediocre pitcher. He's never been able to harnas his control and it's evident again this season. He has a 9.45 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games either because he throws so many pitches. Ray has a 5.20 career ERA in 17 starts against the Rockies. Current Rockies are batting a combined .328 against him in 214 plate appearances. Gray's .694 home winning percentage is second-best in franchise history. Arizona has lost 10 of the last 12 times it has been a road 'dog. Colorado has defeated the Diamondbacks six of the past eight times at Coors Field. |
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| 08-10-20 | Rays -125 v. Red Sox | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
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There's a class difference between these two teams. Given that and the starting pitching matchup, I'm going to back Tampa Bay at this short lay price. The Rays' Ryan Yarbrough is a dependable starter. The Red Sox are likely to use this matchup as a bullpen game. That's fine if you have a good bullpen. The Red Sox don't. Tampa Bay is 8-2 the past 10 times facing Boston. The Rays have won during each of their last four games in Boston.
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| 08-09-20 | Blue Jays +145 v. Red Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
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This is not the season to be backing the pitching-less Red Sox. Boston has lost 11 of the last 16 times it has been a home favorite. At this price, I'm going to make a value play and take the Blue Jays, who have a better record than the Red Sox. Boston has a terrible bullpen and its starting pitching rotation has been decimated by injuries, trades and defections. Nathan Eovaldi, who gets the start here, could be the Red Sox's best starter. Eovaldi throws hard, but always has been inconsistent. He had a 7.71 ERA in two starts against Toronto last season. I believe Toronto's Matt Shoemaker can pitch well now that he has gotten the rust off. This will be his third start. He is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four lifetime appearances versus the Red Sox, which includes three starts.
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| 08-06-20 | Angels v. Mariners +158 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
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Had a big underdog winner with the Mariners on Wednesday. And am coming back on them today as a big underdog again in a pitching matchup of Dylan Bundy versus Taijuan Walker. I just don't see the Angels being that much better than Seattle especially on the road. The Angels are 9-25 in their last 34 away games. So this is another value play. I think Bundy is better with the Angels than he was with the Orioles. The Mariners, though, just saw him last Sunday. Bundy gave up three runs on four hits in six innings in that game, which the Mariners won, 8-5. Walker always has shown promise, but his career has been derailed by injuries. Walker is healthy now and coming off an impressive 5-3 victory against the A's six days ago where he threw seven scoreless innings giving up only one hit with eight strikeouts and two walks. The Angels are at less than full strength with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out with an ankle injury.
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| 08-05-20 | Angels v. Mariners +145 | 6-7 | Win | 145 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
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I don't get the oddsmaker's love of the Angels when meeting the Mariners. I get that Seattle is bad and playing for the future. But the Angels aren't good either especially on the road where they have lost 24 of their past 33. In this matchup, the Mariners are not only home but have the superior starting pitcher. Marco Gonzales is their No. 1 starter. He's 6-1 in 13 career starts versus the Angels. He faced them six days ago in Anaheim limiting them to three hits and two unearned runs in 6 1/3 innings. Seattle won that game, 8-5. Julio Teheran is set to make his Angels debut. He's been out after testing positive for COVID-19. He is making the conversion to being an American League pitcher having spent his nine-year big league career with the Braves. He's likely to be on a pitch count.
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| 08-05-20 | Reds v. Indians -115 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
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This is a case of slow-starting Mike Clevinger pitching at home against Tejay Antone, who is making his big league debut. Clevinger is better than he has shown. I'll back him against the unknown Antone and a Reds squad that has been disappointing so far this season. Antone isn't a premier prospect. He's ranked as the Reds' 24th best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. The Indians have been a reliable home favorite winning 10 of the last 12 times in that role.
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| 08-05-20 | Red Sox v. Rays -145 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
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The Rays are another reliable home favorite. They are 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times as home chalk. Tropicana Field is a very tough road venue for opponents because of its Field Turf and odd configurations. The Red Sox have lost in five of their last six visits. Boston also is 1-7 the past eight times meeting the Rays. Boston is down this season due to horrible pitching. The Red Sox are going with Martin Perez, who has an 8.39 ERA at Tropicana Field in five appearances, including four starts. He doesn't figure to be aided by one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Rays are going with Ryan Yarbrough, who is pitching extremely well with a 1.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Tampa Bay owns the far superior bullpen, too.
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| 08-02-20 | Astros -123 v. Angels | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
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Houston is 62-30 in its last 92 games. The Angels are 19-43 during their past 62 games. The Astros are much superior. More so since the Angels will be without underrated injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons and possibly superstar Mike Trout for another game. Trout didn't play on Saturday after his wife gave birth. He might not play today either since the Angels are idle on Monday. Houston has beaten LA 20 of the last 28 times on the road. So why such a low line? Is it because the Angels hold a starting pitching edge? No, I can't say that in a pitching matchup of Josh James versus Shohei Ohtani. James can get wild, but he is a big strikeout pitcher with a 2.57 career ERA versus the Angels in 10 appearances. He has a high upside. The Angels lose Ohtani's bat at the DH spot because he'll be on the mound. Ohtani is on the comeback trail. He looked terrible in his first start, which came last Sunday against the A's. Ohtani faced six batters. He gave up three hits and three walks. His career ERA in two starts against the powerful Astros is 7.04.
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| 08-02-20 | Padres v. Rockies +113 | 6-9 | Win | 113 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
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Yes, I think the Padres are improved and a legitimate darkhorse. But I will fade them as road chalk at Coors Field. San Diego is 4-14 in its last 18 road games. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Antonio Senzatela. I prefer Senzatela, who is 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 lifetime appearances versus the Padres, including six starts. He is 4-0 taking on the Padres at Coors Field. The Padres' late inning relief has been disappointing. The Rockies' relief staff has been surprisingly solid except for Wade Davis, who has no business being a closer anymore.
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| 08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
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If they keep Wade Davis out of the game, I like the Rockies' chances of evening this series. The Rockies were on a four-game win streak until the Padres beat up Davis and rallied to defeat Colorado on Friday. Even with that win, San Diego is only 5-13 in its last 18 road games. The Padres also are 13-40 versus a lefty starter when on the road. Colorado is pitching southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has plenty of experience with Coors Field and pitching in Denver's thin air. Freeland was solid in his first start this season giving up two runs on four hits in six innings during a 5-2 win against the Rangers this past Sunday. Eric Hosmer has missed the past three games for the Padres due to sickness. San Diego is starting Joey Lucchesi, a lower-tier pitcher with a 4.71 lifetime ERA in four career starts at Coors.
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| 07-31-20 | Padres v. Rockies -105 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
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Colorado has been an early surprise opening 4-1 with all five of those games on the road. Now the Rockies are set for their home opener and they are in a great spot to win it. The price certainly is right to back them. The Rockies are throwing their ace, righty Jon Gray. The Rockies' bullpen has held up so far. Colorado has a 1.84 team ERA having faced the Rangers and A's. The Padres appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. But this is a bad spot for them. San Diego had to play late into the night on Thursday to defeat the Giants on the road in extra innings. Now they had to fly into Colorado. Colorado concluded last season winning seven of its last nine home games. They are tough to deal with at Coors Field especially if you lack experience at that ballpark. San Diego starter Garrett Richards has never pitched at Coors. He's likely in for a shock. San Diego has lost 12 of its last 15 road games when facing a righthanded starter and that includes its win Thursday against the weak Giants. The Padres are 1-4 in their last five games at Coors. They could be without steady first baseman Eric Hosmer, who has missed two straight games due to a stomach illness.
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| 07-29-20 | Royals +127 v. Tigers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
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Anytime I see the Tigers favored, I have to seriously consider the underdog. Detroit has lost 76 percent of its last 100 games! The Tigers are 1-4 the past five times they've been home chalk. The Royals aren't starting one of their not-ready-for-prime-time young pitchers. They are going with veteran lefty Danny Duffy. He held the Indians to two runs on three hits in 4 1/3 innings during his first start this season. Kansas City has the four best position players in this matchup. The Tigers are going with Matt Boyd, who looked terrible in his first start this year when he got hammered by the Reds. Boyd does not have a good history against the Royals either with a 5-9 mark and 6.46 ERA in 19 career outings versus them. Whit Merrifield, the best player on either team, has a lifetime batting average of nearly .500 against Boyd going 20-for-39.
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| 07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays -125 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
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Tropicana Field is one of the tougher places to play especially for National League opponents. The Braves experienced the horrors of Tropicana Field losing by nine runs to the Rays on Monday. Atlanta fielders had difficulty dealing with the domed stadium's roof and background striking out 19 times. The price is low enough to back the Rays again today against the Braves, who are without their two top catchers. The Braves are going with Kyle Wright. He's a highly-rated prospect who is Atlanta's No. 5 pitcher now because Cole Hamels is out. Wright has failed to show anything in the majors yet posting a 7.71 ERA in 11 big league appearances. Lack of control has been a big issue with him. Yonny Chirinos gets the start for Tampa Bay. He has no problems at Tropicana Field holding opposing hitters to a .207 batting average there. Chirinos has much better control than Wright finishing with a 1.05 WHIP last year. The Rays usually come through as a home favorite winning 75 percent in that role the past 32 times. Tampa Bay also is 15-6 the past 21 games versus NL foes and 21-5 the last 26 times playing on astroturf.
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| 07-27-20 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
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After facing Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet and Garrett Richards, the Diamondbacks drop down in class today drawing Joey Lucchesi. He has a career record of 18-19 with a 4.14 ERA and has yet to prove he can be an above average starter. Right-handed Luke Weaver was a star holding 10 of 11 opponents to three runs or fewer last season before being sidelined until the final week of the season due to an elbow injury. The Padres have lost 20 of the past 26 times they've gone against a righty starter.
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| 07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets -105 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
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The Braves are at a big early-season disadvantage with both of their veteran catchers, Travis d'Arnaud and Tyler Flowers, out. The combination of that and preferring veteran Rick Porcello against lefty Sean Newcomb puts me on the Mets at this low price. Porcello had spent his first 11 years in the American League. Porcello is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career interleague starters versus the Braves, but National League teams are mostly unfamiliar with him. Newcomb has moved around from bullpen to starter while proving more reliable as a relief pitcher. The Mets' lineup is more dangerous against southpaws with the return to health of right-handed DH Yoenis Cespedes.
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| 07-24-20 | Twins -103 v. White Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
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We know this about the Twins: They are coming off a 101-win season and a major league record 307 homers. We know this about the White Sox: They have some intriguing young talent and are projected to challenge for the AL Central Division title. But they are untested. The Twins are the proven commodity. The White Sox are unknown. I like Twins starter Jose Berrios more than White Sox starter Lucas Giolito in this matchup. The price is right to back Minnesota. The Twins dominated the White Sox last season winning 13 of 19 times. Minnesota scored 231 more runs than Chicago last year. Berrios has a strong history versus the White Sox with an 11-2 record and 2.40 ERA in 14 career starts. This includes a 4-1 mark and 2.88 ERA against the White Sox last season. By contrast, Giolito is 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Twins.
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| 07-24-20 | Rockies v. Rangers -120 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Rockies are usually a good fade on the road. That should be the case here. Colorado has lost 39 of its last 54 away games. They are starting German Marquez and have one of the worst bullpens on paper. The Rockies' best reliever, Scott Oberg, is on the DL with a back strain. I like Texas starter Lance Lynn more than Marquez. The veteran Lynn won't lack motivation making his first Opening Day start. He hasn't pitched against the Rockies in three years, but has a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP versus them in seven career starts.
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| 10-25-19 | Astros v. Nationals +131 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
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I can't - and won't - pass up a plus price offering on the red-hot Nationals. Not only is Washington the home team, where there will be no DH, but the Nationals are a blazing 18-2 in their last 20 games. They have won eight games in a row. The Nationals are 13-1 in their past 14 home games. Yet, despite these impressive streaks, Washington is the underdog. I don't get it. Houston is 2-3 on the road in the postseason. The Nationals beat Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. They can defeat Zach Greinke, too. I like Greinke and this isn't a fade on him as it is a play on the hot Nationals, who have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Greinke, though, is 36. He's not an "A" pitcher anymore in my book. I rate him as a solid "B" being more craft and guile than blowout stuff like he used to be. Greinke has a far bigger name than Washington starter Anibal Sanchez. It's a mistake to believe Sanchez takes a backseat to Greinke in the postseason, though. Sanchez has proven to be a big-play pitcher. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 56 postseason innings with 60 strikeouts. Sanchez nearly threw a no-hitter against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS during his previous start. He has a 0.71 ERA in the playoffs this season. The Astros have a deeper bullpen than the Nationals, who are vulnerable in middle relief. But the Nationals' two best relievers, Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson, are rested. No DH is a plus for the Nationals, who are used to playing by those rules. The Astros now have to decide if they are going to sit out Yordan Alvarez, or start him in the outfield taking a risk with his questionable fielding compared to Josh Reddick. The Astros haven't won since the news about assistant general manager Brandon Taubman's behavior toward a group of female reporters in the Houston clubhouse following the Astros' game-clinching series victory against the Yankees. This incident has caused MLB to investigate and is a distraction for the Astros. Bottom line is there just too much value not to ride the Nationals again.
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| 10-14-19 | Cardinals +121 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
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I have the utmost respect for Stephen Strasburg. But I like Jack Flaherty better. I believe there is value getting Flaherty and the Cardinals - in a desperate spot down 0-2 - at an underdog price. Yes, St. Louis is on the road now. But the Cardinals have beaten the Nationals five of the past six times as a visitor. Yes, the Cardinals aren't hitting. But the Nationals aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball having scored five runs in the first two games of the series. Yes, Strasburg is a stud pitcher. But Flaherty was the best pitcher in the National League during August and September with a 0.91 ERA following All-Star break. Flaherty has stayed hot in the postseason with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. St. Louis is 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
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| 10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Nationals have three outstanding starting pitchers. Anibal Sanchez isn't one of them. It's Sanchez who draws the start in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series today. He's backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. And the Nationals won't be resorting to using Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in relief when they have to dip into their bullpen. Not with those three studs drawing heavy action in the Nationals' playoff series win against the Dodgers. The underdog Nationals took out the Dodgers winning the pivotal Game 5 in extra innings this past Wednesday in LA. Washington still may be hung over with such a short turnaround opening this series in St. Louis. Washington has lost seven of its last nine games to St. Louis. I prefer Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas to Sanchez. Mikolas is a solid No. 3 type starter, while Sanchez is more bottom of the rotation. Mikolas has a 2.98 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 16-7 in Mikolas' last 23 home starts. Sanchez is 2-4 with 3.44 career ERA in eight career starts versus St. Louis.
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| 10-04-19 | Cardinals -123 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
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The Cardinals have been red-hot during the past two months winning 34 of their last 50 games, including seven of their last nine road contests. Jack Flaherty has been a major cog during the Cardinals' stretch drive. There hasn't been a better pitcher during August and September than Flaherty. He is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA during his past 15 starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his past three starts and a 1.48 day time ERA on the season. All this bodes well for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Braves by scoring a combined six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to win, 7-6, in Game 1 of the series on Thursday. It was the Cardinals' 10th win in their last 13 road games versus Atlanta. The Braves have outstanding young talent. But some of that talent needs more maturity and is in a rough bounce back spot after such a tough home loss in the series opener. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has not fared well historically against the Cardinals with a 3-4 mark and 7.64 ERA in seven career starts.
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| 10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -165 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
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I want the Dodgers going for me in this opening National League playoff series. LA is rested, has the better offense and bullpen. I also like the starting pitching matchup from a Dodgers perspective, too. Walker Buehler has been dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium going 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA there. The Dodgers think so much of Buehler they started him ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 15-3 when Buehler has pitching the opener of a series. Corbin has been much better at home than on the road where his away record is 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA compared to 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA at Nationals Park. Corbin is squaring off against an LA squad that set an NL record with 279 home runs and led the NL in runs.
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| 09-25-19 | Brewers -138 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
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No team is hotter than Milwaukee. The Brewers are a major league-best 18-4 this month. They are 16-2 in their last 18 games. The price and pitching matchup is worth it to ride the Brewers again today. Jordan Lyles has been outstanding since coming to the Brewers on July 29. Milwaukee is 9-1 in Lyles' 10 starts. Lyles has a 2.35 ERA with the Brewers and is in excellent form with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Reds are averaging only 2.3 runs in their last eight games. The Reds are dealing with a virus that has affected several Cincinnati players, including infielder Freddy Galvis. The Brewers are highly motivated and have tremendous momentum. If they win this game, they clinch a wild-card berth. The Reds just want the season to end. They are giving Tyler Mahle an extended look. The results haven't been good. Mahle, who is slated to start here, hasn't won since May. He's 2-11 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Mahle's ERA in his past three starts is 6.59.
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| 09-23-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +117 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
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The Cardinals were in a party mood after clinching their first playoff berth in four years after sweeping the Cubs with a 3-2 road win on Sunday. So the Cardinals might not have their full focus traveling West to take on the host Diamondbacks tonight. The pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus lefty Alex Young, who the Cardinals have never faced before. Wainwright is a brilliant 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA when pitching at home. However, his numbers are far worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 away starts. St. Louis is 1-7 the last eight times Wainwright has gone against a winning team on the road. The Cardinals are 21 games above .500 when facing a righthanded starter, but just 16-15 versus southpaw starters. Young is a rookie, but he has been a rock for Arizona holding 12 of his 15 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He has a 2.30 ERA in his past six starts. |
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| 09-22-19 | Nationals v. Marlins +195 | 3-5 | Win | 195 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
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The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79. |
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| 09-17-19 | Mariners +123 v. Pirates | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
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Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games.
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| 09-12-19 | Braves -125 v. Phillies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
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If it weren't for Washington's Dave Martinez, I would select Philadephia's Gabe Kapler as the worst manager in the National League if not all of baseball. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Kabler hasn't changed that in the two years he has been manager despite management getting him a lot of talent. Kapler's bizarre in-game decisions, poor bullpen management and lack of communication have hindered the Phillies. So if I can find a reason to fade the Phillies, I usually will. In this matchup there are several major factors working against Philadelphia, beginning with the starting pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Drew Smyly. Teheran is very reliable. The Braves are 16-7 in his last 23 starts. During these past 23 starts, Teheran has a 2.67 ERA. He's allowed only three runs during his past four starts spanning 25 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during this time frame. It took a while, but the Braves' high quality relievers they picked up at the trade deadline have settled down and are pitching well. Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the majors having won 19 of its last 23 games. The Braves have won 67 percent of their games, too, when drawing a lefty starter this season going 22-11. Smyly was terrible with Texas this year going 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He pitched better initially since coming to the Phillies on July 21. But aside from his last start against the Mets this past Saturday, Smyly has reverted back to his terrible American League form giving up 21 earned runs in his previous six games. Smyly failed to go six innings in any of those six outings before his last start. The chance to back the hot Braves with the stronger pitcher at a reasonable price has me taking Atlanta.
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| 09-11-19 | Braves -124 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
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There is a class and pitching difference here that makes this a worthy investment to back the Braves. Dallas Keuchel is a "B" level pitcher, who has been throwing like his past Cy Young days. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA during his last five starts spanning 31 innings. The Phillies are 16-22 against lefty starters and going with Zach Eflin, who is a bottom of the rotation type starter at best. Eflin has really struggled against Atlanta this year surrendering 12 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Philadelphia can't beat a good team when Elfin starts. The Phillies are 2-12 the past 14 times Elfin has faced an above .500 opponent. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 18 of its last 22 games and seven of its past nine.
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| 09-09-19 | Cubs v. Padres +130 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Cubs and their starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, play much worse on the road. Chicago is 13 games below .500 away from Wrigly Field. Hendricks has a 1.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, but is 4-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Cubs have lost six of the Hendrick's last eight away starts. San Diego starter Cal Quantrill isn't in good form. However, he shut out the Cubs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings when he last faced them on July 21. Quantrill struck out six and did not walk a batter. Hendricks started that game for the Cubs. San Diego won, 5-1. The Cubs could be down four key players. Star shortstop Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel are both out. Infielder Addison Russell isn't likely to play either after getting hit in the head with a pitch yesterday. Kris Bryant missed Sunday's game with a sore knee. So he's questionable.
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| 09-08-19 | Blue Jays +185 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
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There is too much value to pass up on this game. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack has had some good moments. Just three starts ago he held the powerful Dodgers to no runs in seven innings allowing just one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. He has a respectable 3.97 ERA. Tyler Glasnow will be making his first appearance for the Rays since May 10. He's been out this long due to a strained forearm. Glasnow has a very high ceiling, but he figures to be rusty and only pitch around two innings turning this into a bullpen game for the Rays. That puts a lot of randomness into the equation and makes the Blue Jays an enticing underdog at this huge plus price.
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| 09-08-19 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -124 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
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Arizona is playing well, but the Diamondbacks are overachievers. They are not some powerhouse and they are at a pitching disadvantage here. Diamondbacks starter Mike Leake is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts against his former team the Reds. The best thing you can say about Leake is that he is an innings-eater. I prefer Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who pitches better at home and has a 2.16 ERA during his past four starts.
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| 09-06-19 | Yankees -123 v. Red Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
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Face it Red Sox nation. This isn't your season. The price is right to back the superior road Yankees, who despite multiple injuries own the best record in baseball. The Yankees have dominated the Red Sox this season winning 11 of 15 games. New York is hot, too, winners of eight of its last 10. New York has a rested bullpen, which Boston doesn't, and has a much better starter going in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus journeyman Jhoulys Chacin. German is 17-3. He's given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Chacin was released by the Brewers after posting a 3-10 mark and 5.79 ERA in 19 starts this season. Chacin last started back on July 24.
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| 09-04-19 | Mets v. Nationals -117 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
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Less than 24 hours after suffering their most brutal loss of the season - and one that realistically dents any playoff hopes - the Mets must play the Nationals on the road again with this day time start. The Nationals took out Jacob deGrom and the Mets by rallying for seven runs in the ninth inning to pull out a highly improbable 11-10 victory against the Mets on Tuesday night. Before this game, teams with a six-run lead in the ninth were unbeaten this season at 274-0. That loss was the Mets' eighth in their last 11 games and puts them five games behind the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL. The defeat also might have sealed the fate of Mets manager Mickey Callaway. The shell shocked Mets are in no shape mentally to face the Nationals in such a short turnaround. Washington is red-hot going 20-6 inits last 26 games. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler versus Anibal Sanchez. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against Washington this season. The Nationals have scored seven or more runs in 13 of their last 16 games. Sanchez has a 3.80 ERA compared to Wheeler's 4.41 ERA. Sanchez is 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 16 starts.
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| 08-31-19 | Twins -130 v. Tigers | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
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The Tigers are home. That's great news for the Twins since Detroit is 17-47 at home. The Twins are one of the better teams in baseball. They could break the single-season record for home runs during this series. That's how powerful they are. At this low road price, the Twins are a bargain versus this opponent. The pitching matchup is Martin Perez versus Matt Boyd. These two just faced each other six days ago in Minnesota. The Twins got to Boyd for seven earned runs in six innings, while Perez held the Tigers to two earned runs in six innings. Boyd still is getting some respect from the oddsmaker. He's perceived as Detroit's top pitcher. This isn't saying much. Boyd also hasn't been respectable like he was earlier in the season. He's allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. Boyd's ERA during his last 13 starts is a fat 6.05. He's also given up an average of 2.6 homers per nine innings in those last 13 outings. The Twins' power hitters should feast on him. Perez, by contrast, has allowed just four earned in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. The Twins' bullpen has been very good this month. Detroit has lost six in a row, averaging 2.8 runs per game during this losing streak. The Twins have won six straight. They are averaging 8.6 runs a game during their win streak. So, yeah, at this bargain price the Twins are worth laying road chalk.
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| 08-30-19 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | 11-5 | Loss | -131 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
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There aren't many things the Phillies can count out. The one person they can rely on is Aaron Nola, who takes the mound here against the Mets. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those 13 starts. Philadelphia is a dominant 30-11 (73%) in Nola's last 41 home starts. The Phillies have defeated the Mets seven of the past eight times when Nola has gone against them. The Mets are going with Zach Wheeler, who is back in bad form with a 6.75 ERA in his past three starts. New York has lost six straight games. The Mets have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games.
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| 08-27-19 | Indians -131 v. Tigers | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
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If you can't beat righthanders you're not going to have a very good record. Detroit has the lowest winning percentage in baseball. One reason for this is the Tigers losing 45 of the past 55 times against a righty starter. Cleveland is going with righty Adam Plutko. He's settled into being a solid No. 4 type pitcher for Cleveland with a 3.53 ERA in his past six starts. The Indians are 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts. The Tigers are going with Spencer Turnbull, who hit the wall a long time ago. Detroit is 1-10 in Turnbull's last 11 home starts. The Indians were idle Monday giving them an extra day to stew about a tough 9-8 Sunday loss to the Royals. Cleveland should take out its frustrations on its favorite patsy as Detroit is 1-12 versus the Indians this season.
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| 08-26-19 | Dodgers v. Padres +147 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 147 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
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I don't normally go against the Dodgers. But they are 34-28 on the road. That's certainly respectable, but nothing like their mind-boggling 52-18 home record. The Dodgers have trouble when facing Eric Lauer. San Diego is 5-1 in Lauer's six career starts versus the Dodgers. Laurer has a 1.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in these appearances. The Dodgers are batting only .175 against Lauer this season. Lauer has a 3.10 home ERA on the season. The Padres are 5-2 in his past seven starts at Petco Park. The Dodgers have been in a scoring slump scoring three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. Dodgers rookie Dustin May has a high ceiling. But he's up-and-down right now. May last pitched eight days ago in relief. He gave up four runs on three hits and a walk in two innings versus the Braves. The Padres went up against May on Aug. 2 getting to him for four runs - three of which were earned - and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Padres have already set a franchise-record for home runs in a season with 190.
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| 08-25-19 | Braves +111 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 111 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
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The Braves are the superior team. Steven Matz is a strong home pitcher for the Mets. But I like Dallas Keuchel and the hot Braves in an underdog role. Atlanta has won seven in a row. They have won 12 more games than the Mets.
The Braves rank sixth in scoring. The Mets, by contrast, rate 16th in runs. |
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| 08-23-19 | Nationals v. Cubs -121 | 9-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
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If the Cubs played all of their games at Wrigley Field they would rank with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers as a super power. Chicago is 44-19 at home. The price is low enough to back the Cubs at home in a pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's last 61 games at Wrigley Field. Lester looked back to normal during his last start going six shutout innings against the Pirates on the road last Saturday. The southpaw has a 3.13 day time ERA. The Nationals are just one game above .500 when facing a lefty starter. Sanchez may be hitting the wall. He's given up eight runs during his last two starts spanning nine innings. Sanchez has allowed 15 hits and five walks during these past nine innings. Chicago has rested Craig Kimbrel to close, while the Natoinals lack a closer with Sean Doolittle, their best reliever, on the DL.
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| 08-21-19 | Indians +141 v. Mets | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
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Sorry, but I'm not sold on the Mets as a serious playoff contender. Not when they aren't pitching Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, which is the case here. New York is 19-5 in its last 24 games. But 16 of those victories have come against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Those five teams are a combined 111 games under .500! The Indians have gone on a second-half surge to go 22 games above .500. They are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets. New York is 3-0 in Stroman's three starts. However, Stroman has a 5.17 ERA in those outings. The Indians are averaging 6.2 runs in their last nine games. Adam Plutko is a bottom of the rotation starter for Cleveland. But he's decent. He just beat the Yankees - a far superior offensive team to the Mets - last Wednesday limiting the Yankees to three runs in six innings. Cleveland is 8-2 the past 10 times Plutko has started.
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| 08-21-19 | Angels v. Rangers -121 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
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I don't know if this is a case of giving Patrick Sandoval too much respect, or All-Star Mike Minor getting too little respect. It's likely a case of both. Nonetheless, the bottom line here is the Rangers are underpriced. Minor is worthy of being a much stronger favorite pitching at home against the Angels, who aside from superstar Mike Trout just aren't very good. Minor is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during his last four starts. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in a dozen home starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 3-0 mark the past two years in five starts against the Angels. LA is 17-25 versus southpaw starters on the season. The Angels also have dropped nine of their last 12 road matchups. Sandoval is one of those young Angels starters being force fed to major league hitters due to injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs. The lefty has a 5.79 ERA. He isn't ready, in my view, to be in a big league starting rotation. The Rangers are 6-2 the past eight times they've gone against a lefty starter.
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| 08-19-19 | Nationals -120 v. Pirates | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
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The Orioles and Tigers are the two worst teams in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates can join those two teams in the discussion of who is the worst. Pittsburgh is 7-27 post All-Star break. Washington is 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Nationals have the third-best record in the National League. Yet we have a very low opening line lay price for the Nationals. Why is that since the Nationals clearly are at least two levels higher than Pittsburgh? Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates. But that doesn't answer the question since Williams hasn't been very good with a 6.92 ERA in his last seven starts spanning 39 innings. The Nationals are swinging extremely hot bats averaging 9.4 runs during their past seven games. The answer then may lie in who Washington is starting on the mound: Joe Ross. His season numbers show a 5.91 ERA. That is misleading, however. Ross has been the Nationals' top pitcher if you go by the past three starts. Ross has fixed his mechanics and made key adjustments. These changes have helped him go 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his past three starts spanning 18 innings. The Pirates have the better closer, Felipe Vazquez. The Nationals have upgraded their middle and setup relief, though. It's doubtful if the Pirates will even get to use Vazquez. Pittsburgh is averaging only two runs per game during its last four games. It's also a bad situational spot for the Pirates as they had to play in the Sunday night game, which was played in Williamsport, Pa., against the Cubs in the MLB Little League Classic.
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| 08-16-19 | White Sox +115 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 115 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
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Injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs have left the Angels force-feeding young unprove pitching prospects. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval falls into that category. Sandoval draws the start here against All-Star Lucas Giolito. Sandoval has a 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 innings. This will be his second big league start. He isn't ready to be pitching in the majors. The Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. They have a burned out bullpen and are extremely weak in the middle infield with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out. Giolito hit a bump in a couple of July starts, but is back on track with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts in which he has fanned 30 batters in 19 innings. Chicago is 8-3 in Giolito's last 11 road starts. The White Sox are 12 games under .500 on the year. Hence, the Angels opening a favorite despite the huge starting pitching disparity. However, the White Sox are much better against lefthanded starters. Chicago's record versus lefties this season: 23-18. The White Sox are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a southpaw starter.
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| 08-15-19 | White Sox +162 v. Angels | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
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The oddsmaker is overlooking how well Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching and how strong the White Sox have been against lefthanded starters by making the Angels such a big favorite in a pitching matchup of Lopez versus southpaw Andrew Heaney. The White Sox are 11 games under .500 on the season. However, they are 23-17 against southpaw starters, including winning the past six times they have faced them. Heaney has been inconsistent and is rusty. This is only his second start in nearly a month as he been sidelined by shoulder inflammation. Heaney pitched 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his last outing this past Saturday giving up one earned run. The Angels are vulnerable in the bullpen. The White Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games and off a 13-9 victory against Houston. Lopez has been one of the best pitchers post All-Star break but remains below the radar. He has a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts surrendering just one homer during this span. Chicago is 5-1 in Lopez's past six road starts. |
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| 08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -131 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
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This matchup pits a battle of lefty starters, Steven Matz versus Dallas Keuchel. I want Keuchel and the Braves going for me. Atlanta is 17-10 versus southpaw starters, including winning 11 of the last 16 times when drawing a lefthanded starter. The Mets have a losing record when going up against a lefty starter. Keuchel won't lack motivation coming off his worst as a Brave. He was racked for eight runs on 10 hits in only 3 2/3 innings this past Thursday against the Marlins in Miami. The prideful Keuchel is much better than that. He has made four home starts for the Braves and has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in those games. The Mets have never faced him. New York also is likely to be without second baseman Jeff McNeil, the second-leading hitter in the NL. McNeil suffered a leg injury on Tuesday night. Matz has a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year The Mets have lost five of Matz's last six away starts.
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| 08-13-19 | Mets v. Braves -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
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The Braves are better than the Mets. The Braves are home and I don't see Zach Wheeler having any edge on lefty Max Fried. So at this price, the Braves are a bargain. Wheeler has been pitching well. I like him. But he's not in the Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard talent level. Wheeler has a 4.50 ERA in two starts versus Atlanta this season. Fried has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his past four starts with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings during this span. The Mets hold a losing record versus southpaw starters. Atlanta does have bullpen concerns. But so do the Mets. Edwin Diaz has an 11.12 ERA in his last six appearances. The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Mets.
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| 08-13-19 | Mariners +151 v. Tigers | 11-6 | Win | 151 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
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Anytime the Tigers are laying this kind of price, I'm at the window fading them. Detroit has lost 41 of its last 51 games. They are an MLB-worst 16-41 at Comerica Park. Ty Cobb would be rolling around in his grave if he could witness how bad these Tigers are. The Tigers are big chalk because supposedly they have their best pitcher, Matthew Boyd, going while Seattle is pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn't won during his past seven starts. Kikuchi pitched well, though, in his last outing holding the Padres to one run on four hits in five innings with eight strikeouts this past Wednesday. Boyd was terrible during his last start getting rocked for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Royals this past Thursday. Boyd yielded six hits, including three homers in that loss. Detroit has dropped 13 of Boyd's last 16 starts. Seattle, like the rest of the American League, knows how to beat the Tigers. Seattle is 17-4 in its past 21 games versus Detroit.
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| 08-11-19 | Indians v. Twins -143 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -143 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
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The Twins are 25-10 the past 35 times Jose Berriors pitches at home. One of those losses, though, occurred the last time Berrios pitched at Target Field. That came this past Tuesday against Atlanta. The Braves blasted Berriors scoring nine runs on him in fewer than six innings. It was one of Berrios' worst days of his career. Prior to that, however, Berrios had gone 12 straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. He is an elite pitcher and extremely reliable. His home ERA is 3.15. His day time ERA is 3.20 I trust Berrios to come back strong following that rare humiliation. He's facing rookie Aaron Civale, who will be making back-to-back big league starts for the first time. This will be the toughest test Civale has faced. Minnesota ranks first in the majors in homers and is second in runs. The Indians, by contrast, rate 20th in homers and 19th in runs.
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| 08-10-19 | A's v. White Sox +159 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 159 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
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Reynaldo Lopez is flying below the radar screen. Tanner Roark should never be a favorite in this high range. But the two together and you have a strong underdog value play on the White Sox. Lopez has been one of the hotter post All-Star break pitchers going 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts. Lopez has 34 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings during this span. Lopez has tamed the A's during his career, too, with a 1.50 lifetime ERA against them in two starts. Roark is a true mediocrity with a 7-7 mark and 4.14 ERA. Oakland has a losing record in his last seven road contests.
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| 08-07-19 | White Sox -105 v. Tigers | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
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The 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The 1962 New York Mets. The 2019 Detroit Tigers. Yes the Tigers are getting to be historically that bad having lost 30 of their last 35 home games. Detroit is 9-48 in its last 57 games against a righty starter and draw a hot Ivan Nova here. Nova is pitching his best ball of the season and maybe of his career with a 0.90 ERA during his last three starts. He's held the Marlins, Twins and Phillies to two earned runs in 20 innings during this span giving up 11 hits and three walks. The Tigers are second-to-last in runs, have only one decent starter and a terrible bullpen. The result is the worst record in baseball at 33-77. Lefty Tyler Alexander gets the call for Detroit. He has a 4.50 ERA. The White Sox are at their best versus southpaws compiling a 21-17 mark against them. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games when facing a lefty starter.
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| 08-06-19 | Braves v. Twins -150 | 12-7 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
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On paper this may look like a close matchup. In reality it's not. The Twins are much the superior team and have a huge starting pitching edge. These factors are enough to justify laying this price. Atlanta is just 8-11 in its last 19 games. I don't see the Braves defeating Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Berrios has cemented his status as an elite pitcher. He's in tremendous form, too, with a 1.82 ERA in four starts following the All-Star break. Berrios has the third-lowest ERA in the American League at 2.80 and sixth-best WHIP in the AL at 1.10. The Twins have won 25 of Berrios' last 34 home starts, a winning percentage of 74 percent. While Berrios has lived up to his vast potential, Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has gone far downhill after making the All-Star team last year. Bothered by a sore elbow, Foltynewicz has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.37 ERA. Atlanta is 4-9 in his last 13 starts. Foltynewicz has been so bad he was sent to the minors. Now he's back up. I remain highly skeptical. Foltynewicz has been prone to the long ball surrendering 16 bombs in 59 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are on pace to easily surpass their franchise best for homers in a season. The Braves picked up several prominent relief pitchers at the trade deadling, including Shane Greene. But so far they have looked terrible.
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| 08-06-19 | A's +129 v. Cubs | Top | 11-4 | Win | 129 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
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We have a pair of lefty starters going here - Brett Anderson versus Jon Lester. Anderson has been solid on the road while Lester usually is tough at Wrigley Field. Oakland, though, is 19-8 this season versus southpaw starters, including winning five of its past six away games against them. Anderson's road numbers are a very respectable 5-2 record with a 3.49 ERA. He has limited 11 of his last 13 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The A's have won Anderson's last six away outings. The Cubs hold a losing mark going against lefthanders. They also have a cluster injury situation in their bullpen and are without a closer. Chicago is minus injured catcher Wilson Contreras, too.
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| 08-05-19 | Phillies -102 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
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I see the Phillies bouncing back against the Diamondbacks after losing at home to the White Sox on Sunday. Philadelphia is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Phillies have a pitching edge here both at starter in the bullpen where Arizona is vulnerable in middle relief and doesn't have a closer. Archie Bradley got the save for Arizona on Sunday but he had to log two innings and 28 pitches to do it. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been bad for more than a month. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his last six starts. Kelly has been racked for 14 earned runs in his last two starts spanning just 8 1/3 innings. He's been tagged for five homers during this short time frame. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching well giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The righty has struck out 15 during this span. The Diamondbacks have a losing record against righthanded starters.
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