Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-24 | Giants -124 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game. |
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04-27-24 | Rays -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Give me a reason, any reason, to fade the 4-22 White Sox. OK, I have one. The Rays just were embarrassed, 9-4, by the White Sox on Friday night. The White Sox haven't won two in a row all season. They are the worst offensive team in baseball by far ranking last in various major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. I don't see Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale having too much trouble handling such a weak lineup. The Rays should do plenty of damage against rookie White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
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04-23-24 | Astros -108 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Houston Astros have been playing like the Houston Colts .45s. Hard to believe, but the Astros are 7-16. Houston is down from its recent past dominant seasons, but they haven't regressed this much!
What the Astros needed was a day off to regroup and get focused again. They got that on Monday being idle. That means a rested bullpen and a rested Josh Hader. This is good news for starter J.P. France, who held the Braves to two runs on four hits in five innings this past Wednesday in his last start. The Braves are the top offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are going with Jordan Wicks, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Wicks has yet to complete five innings during any of his first four starts this year. The Cubs have been vulnerable at closer with Adbert Alzolay blowing four of his first seven save opportunities. Chicago has been without outfielder Ian Happ the past two games due to a hamstring injury. He's second on the Cubs in runs scored. He's questionable. Bottom line is I like the pitching matchup for the Astros - both starter and bullpen - and they are due to start turning things around. The price is right to back them. |
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04-20-24 | Orioles v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Don't look for many runs to be scored in this Orioles-Royals game. Both teams have their aces going. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore and emerging star Cole Ragans for Kansas City. Burnes has a 2.28 ERA and Ragans' ERA is 1.93. The top bullpen arms are fresh, too, for this game. This is a rematch of an April 3 game when the Orioles won, 4-3. Ragans didn't give up a run in that contest. He allowed only one hit, two walks and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings. Burnes gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The weather and slated home plate umpire are good signs, too, for an Under. Temperatures are going to be in the low 50s with the wind blowing in at around 10 mph. Ryan Blakney is scheduled to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed in 19 of Blakney's last 29 games as home plate umpire going back to last season for 66 percent.
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04-18-24 | Guardians +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven. |
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04-16-24 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Nationals have one quality start this season. Don't expect them to have two after this game against the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin is starting for Washington. He hasn't been good since 2019. |
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04-15-24 | Padres -115 v. Brewers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. |
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04-14-24 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack. |
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04-13-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +102 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Kyle Gibson wasn't very good in the American League and he's not very good in the National League either. Gibson is with his fourth team in the last four years. He is an ineffective journeyman pitcher whose ERA has been above 5.00 in four of the past six seasons, including 6.23 this year.
Gibson should not be a road favorite against the National League defending champion Diamondbacks. Yet that's the way this game opened. It opened that way because Arizona is starting Ryne Nelson, who is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Nelson, though, has faced the Braves and Yankees this season. The Braves have the best offense in the majors and the Yankees are in the top-10 in home runs. Now Nelson, an excellent buy low candidate, is stepping down in class as the Cardinals rank 21st in runs, 23rd in home runs and 25th in batting average. I peg the 26-year-old Nelson to be much improved this season with added velocity to his fastball and improved secondary pitches. He was outstanding during spring training compiling a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts in his five starts. The Diamondbacks have a far better offense than St. Louis ranking in the top-six in runs and batting average, while hitting the eighth-most homers. Gibson has surrendered four homers in 13 innings. |
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04-10-24 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
Tanner Bibee is going to look very good pitching on Wednesday. How's that? What major league pitcher wouldn't look good going against hitters such as Robbie Grossman, Nicky Lopez, Lenny Sosa, Kevin Pillar, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado. |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
A total that opens below 9 in a Dodgers game is going to pique my interest. This is one of those games. |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though. |
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10-18-23 | Astros +120 v. Rangers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -157 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener. |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The marketplace is enamored with the pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Zach Wheeler in this opening game of the National League Championship Series. The total is being bet down. |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history. |
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09-29-23 | Red Sox +125 v. Orioles | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night. So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over. It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means. Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday. Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore. Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties. Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified. |
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09-27-23 | Pirates +120 v. Phillies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times. The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse. I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games. The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games. Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees. Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road. |
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09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go. The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season. But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field. Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29. Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count. San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here. |
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09-18-23 | Orioles v. Astros -147 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -147 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one. Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement. I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67. Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss. The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14. |
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09-15-23 | Phillies -137 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis. The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals. Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors. The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's. |
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09-12-23 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Neither starter, Patrick Sandoval nor rookie Bryan Woo, is in good form. The bullpens have mileage on them. So it's not too big of a task for each team to produce at least four runs. Seattle has done that in five of its last seven games. The Mariners rank 10th in runs and homers. They draw Sandoval, who has surrendered nine earned runs in his past two starts spanning 8 2/3 innings. During this two-game span, Sandoval has given up 12 hits and seven walks. The Angels have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA. Woo is off his second-worst outing of the season. He gave up five earned runs to the Reds in five innings during his last start. I'm not counting on it, but there's a chance Shohei Ohtani returns to the Angels' lineup today. He was nearly ready last night. |
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09-06-23 | Orioles -134 v. Angels | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore. The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval. Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season. Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage. Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. |
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09-05-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -152 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors. The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field. Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory. Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA. The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals. Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury. |
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09-01-23 | Orioles -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. |
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08-30-23 | Brewers -109 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in. This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks. Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory. Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer. Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season. |
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08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors. One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings. The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division. The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs. I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball. So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner. |
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08-28-23 | Astros +111 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-5 | Win | 111 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent. The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale. Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP. Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20. Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA. Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs. Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game. |
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08-23-23 | Nationals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season. Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average. The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season. |
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08-22-23 | Reds +121 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito. Reality is different. The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team. Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games. Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers. Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days. Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA. The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record. |
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08-21-23 | Giants v. Phillies -143 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night. As well as they should. The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth. I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position. San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings. That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games. |
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08-17-23 | Mets -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season. Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players. The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34. St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season. The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games. |
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08-16-23 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor. It does. The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field. The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average. The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them. The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs. Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable. The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league. |
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08-14-23 | Mariners v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home. The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested. The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games. |
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08-11-23 | Reds +100 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen. The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home. Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. |
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08-09-23 | Giants v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani. Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league. San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season. Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night. |
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08-07-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -160 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido. Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. |
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08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers. Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right? Not so fast. Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one. Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire. The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend. The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs. Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching. This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed. |
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08-05-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline. Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA. |
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08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +119 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. |
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08-02-23 | Tigers -118 v. Pirates | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers. But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that. I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido. Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game. |
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07-31-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home. That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline. It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline. There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects. The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs. Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings. |
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07-26-23 | Orioles +101 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez. I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen. The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters. Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors. Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame. Wrong team favored. |
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07-25-23 | Mets -116 v. Yankees | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263. It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge. The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game. Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees. Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA. |
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07-24-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are a good team, but in circle-the-wagons mode after concluding a 2-7 road trip with a loss on Sunday to the Reds. I expect the Diamondbacks to get back to their winning ways as they draw the Cardinals, one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, at home. Arizona is 12 games above .500 with a winning home record. St. Louis is 12 games below .500 and has a 22-30 road mark. Morale can't be good for the Cardinals with the Aug. 1 trade deadline looming and rumors they'll be big sellers. The strongest part of this handicap, though, is Adam Wainwright coming off the injured list to get the start for St. Louis. Wainwright is 41. He needs to finally call it quits. Before he went on the DL he could have had the worst three-game starting sequence of any pitcher this year. During his last three starts - spanning just eight innings - Wainwright gave up 17 earned runs! That's a 19.12 ERA. He yielded 24 hits, six walks and four homers during this eight-inning stretch. Ryne Nelson is expected to start for Arizona. His numbers are 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Nelson, however, has pitched well in four of his last five starts giving up two earned runs or fewer. One bad outing against the Mets skewed his season numbers.
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07-23-23 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This isn't the best time for the Red Sox to go with a bullpen game. But that's the way they are going with Brennan Bernardino, who hasn't thrown more than two innings in a game this season, the likely opener. The Mets and Red Sox played twice on Saturday so their bullpens carry high fatigue ratings. The Red Sox should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Carlos Carrasco, who is on the downside of his career. Carrasco is having a dreadful season with a 5.35 ERA. He has a bad history against Boston, too, with a 7.47 ERA in 31 1/3 career innings. The Red Sox rank in the top-six in runs, batting average and OPS. |
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07-21-23 | Phillies v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
Below-the-radar starters. Strong bullpens. Wind blowing in. The right elements are in place for there to be fewer than nine runs scored in this Phillies-Guardians matchup. Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. He has a 2.39 road ERA. The Phillies rank in the top-10 in lowest bullpen ERA. Closer Craig Kimbrel has turned back the hands of time, not allowing a run during his last 16 appearances. The Guardians have hit the fewest homers in the majors. They rank 24th in runs and OPS. Cleveland is going with rookie Gavin Williams, who has a high ceiling. He held the Rangers - the top-scoring team in baseball - to two runs in five innings during his last start. Williams has struck out 11 in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Backing Williams is a rested Guardians relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Phillies scored only seven runs during their recently concluded three-game series against the Brewers. Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in at eight miles per hour. |
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07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings. The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings. The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here. |
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07-17-23 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high given how bad these offenses are. The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. The Royals rank among the bottom-three in runs, homers and OPS. Kansas City has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games. Detroit is starting Matt Manning, who has made three starts since he was injured back on April 11. He has a 3.12 ERA in those three starts, not allowing a home run. Manning didn't give up a hit in 6 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start on June 8. Lyles is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, but he's been better lately with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts. |
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07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Note the start time. It's a rare 4 p.m. home start for Anaheim because this is the Sunday Night ESPN game. That's when the shadows are at their worst at Angel Stadium. That makes it extremely rough on the hitters for a couple of hours so a 5-inning Under total could be warranted, too. The oddsmakers opened this total at 9 with juice to the Over. But marketplace activity has moved the total to double-digits, giving it extra value considering the odd start time and what a disadvantage it is for the hitter's. Those playing Over no doubt are considering the mediocre starting pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Tyler Anderson and that the Angels beat the Astros, 13-12, in a slugfest on Saturday night. This pitching matchup, though, is built into the line, which the oddsmaker thought should be 9. Javier is a decent middle-to-back-end starter. Anderson is better at home where he's 2-0 with a 4.94 ERA. Houston's bullpen experienced a rare meltdown last night. The Astros have one of the deepest relief staffs. They rank eighth in lowest bullpen ERA. The Angels have an All-Star closer in Carlos Estevez. There are a number of key batters who are out with injuries. The Astros don't have Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The Angels are minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury. The underrated Drury has the second-most RBI's on the Angels. Other key hitters could get rested with this being a Sunday game. |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings. The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft. So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment. |
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07-11-23 | National League v. American League OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 baseball All-Star Games. That strong 81 percent history is a factor why early money has come on the Under. But this is the time to go against the grain. Given the many elite pitchers who have opted out, this total is too low. Among those who won't be pitching are Shane McClanahan, Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani, strikeout leader Spencer Strider, ERA leader Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams. McClanahan has the second-lowest ERA in the majors while Kershaw ranks third. Pitching is down in this year's game with all of those elite hurlers out. That leaves some of the National League pitchers to be Josiah Gray, Kodai Senga, Alex Cobb and Mitch Keller. I don't consider any of those four as All-Star caliber. Among the American starting pitchers are Michael Lorenzen, George Kirby, Pablo Lopez and Nathan Eovaldi. These are good pitchers, but far from great. So it's not too much to ask for the top hitters in baseball to produce eight runs. Along with power, there is speed in this year's game. Stolen bases are way up in part because of the larger bags and four of the top seven base stealers are in the game. |
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07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz. The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws. Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24. Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA. Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. |
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07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2. Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss. The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances. |
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07-06-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Only the Braves have shown more offense lately than the hot-hitting Reds. Cincinnati is averaging 6.6 runs in its last 17 games. The Reds have homered in 19 straight games. Look for the Reds to continue their onslaught against the Nationals in hot, muggy weather conditions in Washington D.C. Mackenzie Gore, 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA, gets the start following his worst outing of the season. The lefty gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings against the Phillies this past Saturday. The Reds have gone Over 14 of the last 19 times facing a southpaw starter. Gore doesn't figure to get fielding or bullpen help. The Nationals rank in the bottom-three in fielding and relief pitching ERA. The Nationals, who rank seventh in batting average, should contribute to this Over facing rookie Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.56 ERA and 1.40 WHIP during his first nine big league starts. The Reds' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Look for double-digit runs to be scored in this matchup. Both the Rockies and Astros have been swinging hot bats and they are going against bad starting pitchers here. The Rockies' bullpen has the second-highest ERA in baseball at 5.03 and the Astros' bullpen has been heavily overworked. Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games. The Rockies draw righthander Brandon Bielak, who has failed to impress during several short stints with the Astros. Bielak is up from the minors. He has a 4.37 ERA on the season. Bielak made three June starts for Houston and had a 6.61 ERA in those outings. The Rockies are tied for first for highest batting average against right-handed pitching at .266. The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Rockies have gone against a righty starter. The Astros should do plenty of damage against Colorado starter Kyle Freeland and a dreadful Rockies bullpen. Houston is averaging seven runs per game during its last nine games. Freeland is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA and an opponent's OPS of .932 during his last eight starts. Freeland has been roughed up for seven homers during his last 39 innings in this span. |
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07-03-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
A strong wind blowing out to right field, a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jake Irvin plus two tired bullpens puts me on the Over. Reds starter Luke Weaver has yet to show he can overcome his previous arm injuries. His ERA is 6.96 and he has looked terrible in his previous three starts with a 9.95 ERA during this span. The Nationals are averaging just a tick below five runs a game during their last seven games. Surprisingly, only four teams have a higher batting average than Washington. Irving is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA. The rookie is 0-3 at home with a 5.28 ERA. The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs. They are averaging 6.6 runs during their last 14 games. |
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07-02-23 | Yankees -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10. Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees. Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA. Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts. |
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06-30-23 | Rays -132 v. Mariners | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners. Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS. The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts. |
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06-28-23 | Yankees v. A's +137 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday. The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts. New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts. So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here. Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span. The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th. New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games. German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts. |
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06-27-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Given their talent, the Cardinals could be baseball's biggest underachieving team at 32-45. Along with the Riddle of the Sphinx, Stonehenge and the Bermuda Triangle it is one of the great mysteries of the world why Oliver Marmol remains manager of the Cardinals. I'm not going to look away from this gift horse. The Astros have Framber Valdez, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league, going against the Cardinals. Losers of six of their last seven home games, the Cardinals could be suffering from jet lag having just played the Cubs in London during the weekend. Valdez has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only Shane McClanahan at 2.27. Valdez is in top form, too, with a 4-1 record and 1.50 ERA in his last six starts. Valdez has made 15 starts this season. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 11 of those games. The Cardinals have never faced him. Lefty Jordan Montgomery is in line to start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2-11 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five career starts versus Houston. The Astros are 12-8 versus southpaw starters. This is an action play for me just in case Montgomery doesn't start. |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
Don't expect the Angels to score 25 runs on Monday like they did against the Rockies on Saturday. Don't even expect the Angels to score four runs against Dylan Cease and the White Sox. Cease has been showing signs of regaining his dominance with a 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings. The Angels go from playing at Coors Field - the premier hitter's park in the majors - to their pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. If you toss out that freakish 25-1 Angels victory two days ago at Coors, the Angels have scored only seven runs in their last four games. That's a 1.7 average. The White Sox have scored four or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games. I don't expect them to reach four runs either facing a below-the-radar Reid Detmers and a rested Angels bullpen. Don't look at Detmers' season record of 1-5 and 4.02 ERA. Detmers is pitching the best of his three-year big league career. He just shut out the Dodgers - a top-five offense - on two hits with eight strikeouts and one walk in seven innings this past Tuesday at Angel Stadium. Detmers is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 24 strikeouts in his past three starts spanning 18 2/3 innings. The White Sox have never faced Detmers, another plus for Detmers. He might also catch the White Sox missing Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal. Anderson has a sore shoulder while Grandal left Sunday's game with a bruised jaw. |
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06-25-23 | Brewers -107 v. Guardians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Cleveland should remember Corbin Burnes. The last time Burnes faced the Guardians in Cleveland he combined with Josh Hader to throw a no-hitter. That was two seasons ago. Burnes faces the Guardians today and the price is right to back him. Burnes hasn't performed at his Cy Young Award level of the past couple of seasons. But he's still darn effective with four straight quality road starts and a 1.15 season WHIP. The Guardians are last in homers, 27th in runs and have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls. Burnes is backed by elite closer Devin Williams, who is rested. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has a 2.67 ERA. However, that hides Civale's current form - which is not good. Civale has given up seven walks and three homers during his past two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. This was against the A's and Padres. Oakland is last in runs, batting average and OPS. San Diego has a below average offense, too. The Brewers had outscored the Guardians by 26 runs in winning four straight against them until losing, 4-2, on Saturday. |
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06-23-23 | Angels v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
On the surface, it looks like the Angels-Rockies will combine for at least a dozen runs in a pitching matchup of lefties Patrick Sandoval against Kyle Freeland. Dig deeper, though, and you find Under to be the right play. Both teams were idle Thursday so the bullpens are rested. Then there's the weather. The forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 9-to-10 mph. The Angels have a cluster injury problem in the infield. Out are Anthony Rendon, Gio Urshela and Zach Neto. That puts Luis Rengifo and Andrew Velazquez into the lineup. Rengifo is batting just .209. Velazquez has only 16 at bats this season. He batted .196 last season in 322 at bats. The Angels enter this game having been shut out in their last two games. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's fared much better there than on the road. Freeland had a 3.19 home ERA this year. He has a 2.25 ERA against the Angels in two previous starts. The Under is 12-2-2 during the last 16 interleague games the Angels have gone against a southpaw starter. Sandoval is coming off seven shutout innings of the Royals last Friday. The Rockies have never faced him giving Sandoval the element of surprise. Colorado is one of the weakest hitting teams against southpaws ranking 29th in OPS, 28th in slugging percentage and 26th in batting average. The Under has cashed the past six times the Rockies have gone against a lefty starter. |
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06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -124 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The Twins are reeling. Fortunately they have Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has a 1.96 ERA in eight home starts this season. He's surrendered just one home run in 76 innings. Minnesota is the better defensive team and has a lower bullpen ERA than Boston. Garrett Whitlock draws the start for Boston. He's been pitching better, but he's at his worst when pitching on the road at night. His away ERA is 5.31. His night ERA is 5.24. So look for the Twins to find their way here thanks in large part to Gray. |
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06-20-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -115 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
George Kirby is a nice young pitcher for Seattle. But he's trumped by Gerrit Cole. The price is right to back Cole and the Yankees at home. The price on the Yankees is so low because New York just got swept by the Red Sox in Boston. That was the Yankees' fourth straight loss. But following yesterday's off-day, look for the Yankees to be up for this game with their ace, Cole, on the mound. Cole has held foes to two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. He is 6-3 lifetime against Seattle with a 2.25 ERA in 11 career starts. The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.96 and is rested. The Mariners are playing their first road game in nine days. They have lost 10 of their past 13 away games. The Mariners also have a dismal history at Yankee Stadium losing in 12 of their last 16 games there. |
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06-19-23 | Blue Jays v. Marlins +139 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 139 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
The Marlins are playing well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 games. That's pushed them up to a season-best 10 games above .500. Now the Marlins return to Miami where they have won 11 of the last 13 times. They draw the disappointing Blue Jays, who are 3-6 in their last nine games. Toronto is off a demoralizing Sunday loss to the Rangers in which they blew a six-run lead. This will be Toronto's seventh straight road game. The Blue Jays will be starting righthander Jose Berrios, who is pitching much better lately. Berrios, however, has been more effective when pitching at home where his ERA is 2.37 compared to 3.79 on the road. The Blue Jays also are likely to be minus injured catcher Alejandro Kirk. The Marlins are 14-3 (82 percent) during their last 17 interleague games when facing a righty starter. Bryan Hoeing is set to make his third start of the year for Miami. He has a 1.54 home ERA. Hoeing will be backed by setup man Tanner Scott and closer A.J. Puk, both of whom were rested on Sunday. |
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06-18-23 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This total is too high given the starting pitching of aces Logan Webb versus Tony Gonsolin. Webb has a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season. His ERA shrinks to 2.75 during day games. Webb also is unbeaten in five career starts at Dodger Stadium where he's 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA. The Dodgers are batting only .224 during day games and could be resting key bats. The Giants have a rested bullpen, too. Gonsolin has a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the year. He's been absolutely dominant at Dodger Stadium with a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. San Francisco has several key bats out due to injuries - Wilmer Flores and Mitch Haniger. Note, too, the home plate umpire is slated to be David Rackley. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the 41 times he's been behind the plate the past two seasons. |
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06-17-23 | Guardians -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Come on down because the price is right to back the Guardians and their ace pitcher, Shane Bieber. Bieber is back to his elite ways, giving up only one run on eight hits during his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He shut out the Astros for seven innings during his last start this past Sunday in a 5-0 victory. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 the past four times they've faced a righty starter at home. The Guardians get to face southpaw Tommy Henry, who has a 4.86 ERA. Unlike Bieber, Henry is not in good form. Henry has surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks during his last two starts spanning nine innings. The Guardians are 7-1 in their last eight games against a lefty starter. Cleveland also carries a huge bullpen edge ranking No. 2 in relief pitching ERA at 3.04 compared to Arizona, which is 17th at 4.09. |
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06-16-23 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-15 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Since losing Aaron Judge to a toe injury nine games ago, the Yankees are averaging a pedestrian 3.4 runs per game. Boston has scored four runs or fewer in nine of its last 12 games. I don't see these teams reaching double-digits in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus Tanner Houck. German just faced the Red Sox this past Saturday, holding them to one run in six innings. German has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven appearances. Houck has a strong history when going against the Yankees with a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 career innings. |
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06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The Padres can take their place among the baseball underachievers this season. San Diego is below .500 on the year and below .500 at home. |
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06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -127 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -127 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Kudos to the Phillies for halting the Diamondbacks' six-game win streak on Tuesday. But I see Arizona starting a new win streak today pitching Merrill Kelly against Ranger Suarez. The Diamondbacks are one of the hottest teams in baseball - and they have been all season tied for the third-best record in the league. Arizona is 7-1 in Kelly's last eight starts. Kelly is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season. Suarez has started to pitch better, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter not in Kelly's class. Suarez has a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Diamondbacks faced Suarez last month and got to him for five runs in five innings. Suarez has a 6.35 ERA in 28 1/3 career innings versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They have scored at least five runs in seven of their past eight games. Even with their Tuesday victory, the Phillies are just 14-23 on the road. They are 4-13 during their last 17 games at Arizona. |
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06-11-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks have four in a row - all by at least four runs - in going a season-best 14 games above .500. The Tigers have lost eight in a row, averaging a measly 2.1 runs per game during this losing skid. The pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus lefty Joey Wentz. Gallen is at least a "B'' tier pitcher. He's 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.35 during day games. Wentz is one of the worst starters in baseball with a 1-6 record, 7.49 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. What he's still doing in the Tigers' starting rotation remains a mystery to me. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-10 in batting average and slugging percentage against southpaw pitching. So I'm going to lower the heavy juice by backing the Diamondbacks on the run line in the belief they win this game by more than one run. Update: The Tigers are going to open with 28-year-old Will Vest as an opener. He hasn't recorded more than six outs in any of his 20 appearances. Vest is likely to go just one or two innings followed by Wentz. So my handicap and play has not changed. However, you may have to re-bet the game if you listed pitchers. |
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06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Bad starting pitchers, bad bullpens. Throw in the wind blowing out to right at 8-to-10 mph and you have the winning formula for an Over in this Diamondbacks-Nationals matchup. Arizona's Tommy Henry faces Nationals righthander Jake Irvin. Henry has a 5.74 road ERA. Irvin has a 7.47 home ERA. The Diamondbacks are in the top-eight against righty pitchers. They've scored at least five runs in five of their last seven games. Washington has a bottom-five bullpen with a 4.73 ERA. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 10 in relief pitching ERA. |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
How good have the surprising Texas Rangers been this season? Try 38-20 with an MLB-best plus 152 run differential. The Rangers have won 12 of their last 15 games. They have Martin Perez starting for them against Adam Wainwright and a slumping, underachieving Cardinals team that is 10 games below .500 and has dropped five of their last six games. Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA. He's also been great during interleague competition with a lifetime 1.59 ERA in nine starts. St. Louis is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 10 games. Wainwright is showing his 41 years. He has a 6.15 ERA, which balloons up to 7.59 when pitching on the road. He faces a Texas lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average while ranking No. 2 in OPS. This is a huge mismatch not fully reflected in this low lay price. |
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06-03-23 | A's v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-12 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
There are many reasons why the A's are a laughing stock this season. Lack of offense certainly is one factor. Oakland ranks last in runs, batting average and OPS. The A's were blanked, 4-0, by Miami's Edward Cabrera on Friday. Now Oakland draws another excellent Marlins pitching prospect in 6-foot-8 righthander Eury Perez, who has a 2.84 ERA in four starts while averaging a strikeout per inning. He faces an Oakland lineup that is averaging a puny two runs in its last 15 games. The A's have terrible pitching, but Luis Medina has been semi-respectable giving up three earned runs in three of his last four starts while averaging nearly six innings during this span. Those starts have come against better offensive teams than the Marlins in the Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Marlins have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors. The kicker is Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire. He's a top Under ump. The Under is 47-34 (58 percent) the past four years Eddings has been behind the plate. |
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05-31-23 | Reds v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Discount a one-run game against St. Louis and the Reds are averaging 7.8 runs in their last seven games. I'm expecting another strong offensive performance from Cincinnati facing lefty James Paxton at hitter-friendly Fenway Park with the wind blowing out to left at 8-to-10 mph. Paxton entered this season having pitched only once in two years. He's on the comeback trail and struggling with a 5.14 ERA. The Reds have the sixth-highest batting average against lefties. The Red Sox should feast on Luke Weaver, who has yet to regain his earlier promise due to arm injuries. Weaver has a 5.45 ERA. The Red Sox rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They got their bats going last night scoring eight runs during the final three innings. |
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05-28-23 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Spencer Strider ws outstanding as a rookie last season and he's tough again this season with a 4-2 record and 2.97 ERA. Oh, yes, Strider also leads the majors in strikeouts with 97. Strider has dominated the Phillies with a 4-0 lifetime mark with a 1.27 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 19 games to the Braves in Atlanta. Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games. I don't see Dylan Covey, making his first start with the Phillies, and a below average Phillies bullpen being able to keep this game close. |
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05-28-23 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
There have been at least nine runs scored in each of the first three games of this series with all three games going Over. I see that streak snapping here in a pitching matchup of Dylan Cease against Eduardo Rodriguez. Cease is back on track after a slow start. He's 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. Cease was 2-1 versus Detroit last year with a 0.82 ERA. Lifetime against the Tigers, Cease has been dominant with a 10-1 record and 1.72 ERA in 13 starts. The lefthanded Rodriguez is 4-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA at home. Unlike the previous two seasons, the White Sox have just been average hitting against lefties. A couple of other factors that help the Under cause is the wind blowing in at 6-to-7 mph and that managers often use Sunday to rest some of their regular hitters. |
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05-26-23 | Nationals +110 v. Royals | Top | 12-10 | Win | 110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Patrick Corbin may have been the worst starting pitcher in the majors last season. This season that dishonor can be bestowed on Jordan Lyles. The two are scheduled to tangle on Friday. Lyles is favored for the first time this season in 11 starts. Mark me down for Corbin and the underdog Nationals. Not only are the Royals 0-10 in Lyles' 10 starts, but all but one of those defeats have come by more than one run. Lyles has permitted four or more runs in nine consecutive games. He has a 7.15 ERA. He's surrendered 14 homers, most in the league. Lyles can't expect to be bailed out by a Kansas City bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA. The Nationals are going to put the ball in play. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league and the fourth-highest batting average. Washington is averaging 5.2 runs during its past 10 games. Corbin has bounced back from being a laughingstock to gaining some of the respectability he had five years ago. Corbin has a 2.88 ERA in four starts this month going at least six innings in each outing with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Corbin encounters a Royals team averaging just 2.7 runs in their last nine games. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-five in runs batting average and OPS. |
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05-24-23 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high in a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Bryce Elder. Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Gonsolin hasn't been scored on during his last 17 innings. The Braves have scored 3 or fewer runs in three of their last four games. Gonsolin has held the Braves to two runs in 15 career innings. Elder is 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Elder an edge in surprise. |
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05-22-23 | Rangers -122 v. Pirates | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Remember that 20-9 start by the Pirates? Yeah, I don't either anymore. Pittsburgh has reverted back to its losing ways going 4-13 in its last 17 games. I don't see the Pirates getting back to winning either taking on the much improved Rangers. Texas is 29-17. That's tied for the third-best winning percentage in baseball. The Rangers have a plus 108 run difference, which is the second-best mark. They rank No. 1 in runs and batting average and are second in OPS. They also have a hot Corey Seager back after he missed 31 games with a strained hamstring. This isn't pleasant news for Luis Oritz, who gets the start for Pittsburgh. He's 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA and a hideous 2.38 WHIP. The Rangers are going with Dane Dunning, who is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The Pirates have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games. |
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05-19-23 | Twins -119 v. Angels | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I like the Twins here and the price is right to back them. Minnesota has its new-found ace, Joe Ryan, going with a rested bullpen. The Twins were idle Thursday. They stay in Los Angeles having just faced the Dodgers, while the Angels concluded a seven-game, seven-day road trip with a one-run victory against the Orioles on Thursday. Ryan is in early Cy Young Award competition with a 6-1 record, 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Angels starter Reid Detmers is 0-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in contrast to Ryan's outstanding numbers. Detmers faced the Twins last season and was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA. |
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05-16-23 | Guardians -116 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Guardians are seven games better than the disappointing 14-28 White Sox and have their ace going, Shane Bieber. Bieber is off to a good start with a 3-1 record and 2.61. The same can't be said for the White Sox, who are 9-20 in their last 29 home games and could be starting Lance Lynn, who has been awful with a 1-5 record, 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The Guardians, who have a winning road record, rate a strong edge with Bieber on the hill no matter who the White Sox pitch today. Bieber is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 17 career starts versus the White Sox. The White Sox have been dealing with injuries to key players all season. Out for the White Sox are Elvis Andrus, Eloy Jimenez and possibly Yasmani Grandal. |
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05-15-23 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 1-18 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
On paper, it looks like the oddsmaker set a correct total with a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Jack Flaherty. But on closer inspection, that's not the case. The number is short. The Brewers are averaging six runs per game in their last three games. Flaherty isn't nearly the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 6.18 ERA. His ERA is 12.75 in his last three starts. The Brewers rank in the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage versus righthanders. Peralta holds a 5.94 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 13 appearances that includes nine starts. St. Louis is swinging hot bats averaging 6.2 runs in its last 10 games. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Cardinals' last 11 home games. |
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05-13-23 | Angels v. Guardians +112 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Angels nipped the Guardians, 5-4, Friday night by scoring twice in the ninth inning. That was just their second road win against the Guardians in 23 games in Cleveland during the past eight years. Now the Angels face another long-standing angle - beating Cal Quantrill. The Guardians are 21-3 for 88 percent in Quantrill's last 24 regular season starts. Quantrill is off his best performance of the season, too, shutting out the Twins for seven innings while giving up only one hit. The Angels are starting Reid Detmers, who is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA. This will be Detmers' sixth start of the year. He's turned in just one quality start. |
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05-07-23 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Sometimes I'm leery about playing a baseball game Over on Sunday when days off are more frequent for starters. But I'm going to get involved in this Over. After all, it's the A's versus the Royals. The A's are starting rookie Mason Miller. He's backed by an Oakland bullpen that is the worst in the majors with a whopping 6.60 ERA. Kansas City is swinging its hottest bats all season averaging six runs in its last eight games. The Royals have left 22 men on base during the first two games of this series - yet still have scored 12 runs. Ryan Yarbrough gets the start for Kansas City. That's not good if you're a Royals fan. Yarbrough is 0-4 with a 7.40 ERA. He has thrown a mind-boggling 157 combined pitches in his last two starts spanning just 7 2/3 innings. The A's have scored 17 runs during the first two games of this series. The Royals have surrendered at least seven runs in six of their last nine games. Their bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the majors at 5.44. As an added bonus, the wind is blowing out to left at 10-to-15 mph. That's not good news for Yarbrough. Neither is the fact that the Over is 10-1 (91 percent) the last 11 times the A's have faced a lefty starter. |
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05-06-23 | Orioles v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Orioles upset the Braves as better than a 2-to-1 underdog on Friday. I don't see Baltimore doing that again today in a matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Spencer Strider. Strider is emerging as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Strider is tied for the National League in strikeouts, too. Bradish is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.84 HIP. He's been bashed for 10 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Red Sox and Tigers in seven innings. The Braves have won by more than one run during nine of their past 10 victories. |
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04-29-23 | Phillies v. Astros -120 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Astros host the Phillies in the middle game of their 3-game World Series rematch. Aaron Nola beat the Astros, 3-1, in Friday night's opener. It has been 18 games since the Astros dropped consecutive games. They have won by an average of 5.3 runs following each of their past six losses. Even with that victory, the Phillies are just 12-28 in their last 40 interleague road games. The Astros are 66-31 in their last 97 home games. The Astros have the far superior bullpen and I give them the checkmark, too, in starting pitchers with a matchup of Zach Wheeler versus Christian Javier. Wheeler is off to a slow start with a 4.73 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Javier has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Houston is 4-1 in Javier's five starts. The Astros have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA at 2.90. Philadelphia relievers rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.65. |
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04-25-23 | Rangers -144 v. Reds | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -144 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
This is my MLB Game of the Week. The Texas Rangers lead the AL West with a 14-8 record and have their second-best pitcher, Martin Perez, starting for them today. The Reds have the third-worst record in the National League at 8-15. They are starting Luke Weaver, who is on the comeback trail and has a long way to go to regain respectability following a serious arm injury. It's actually an advantage for the Rangers to be playing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park because it's one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and the Rangers have the far superior offense. Texas has scored the second-most runs in baseball. The Rangers also rank fifth in batting average and are eighth in homers. The Reds have a bottom-10 offense. They have the third-fewest homers, too. Perez is a late bloomer. The 31-year-old earned his first All-Star honor last year after 11 years in the majors. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts. The Rangers' bullpen blew Monday's game to the Reds in a 7-6 loss. But that shouldn't happen again. Texas entered this series with the second-best bullpen ERA. The Reds had lost six in a row prior to Monday. This will be Weaver's second start of the season after throwing just 35 2/3 innings last season, mostly in relief. Weaver gave up four runs in six innings against the Pirates in his start this year, giving up two homers. Look for the Rangers to bounce back here behind Perez and underrated offense. |
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04-19-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros -105 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Three main reasons why I want the Astros going for me here: Line value, Houston home off a loss and fading Jose Berrios on the road. The Blue Jays beat the Astros, 4-2, on Tuesday. The Astros have won by 4, 7, 6 and 7 runs following their past four defeats. Long-term, the Astros are 42-15 after losing their previous game. Berrios had a 6.36 road ERA last season. He has an 11.17 road ERA this season in starts against the Angels and light-hitting Royals. Berrios has a 4.81 ERA in seven career starts versus Houston. The Astros are going with Luis Garcia, who has a 4.00 career ERA against Toronto in three starts. |
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04-18-23 | Braves -127 v. Padres | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Braves have won seven in a row. They are the best team in the National League. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games. They've scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves, too. So I like the Braves a lot here. Spencer Strider goes against lefty Blake Snell. Strider is an emerging star in his second season. His career numbers are 13-5 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 229-to-54 strikeouts to walk ratio. Snell traditionally begins slow. He's really struggling this season. Snell has given up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, on 18 hits and 10 walks in his last three starts spanning 13 innings. Opponents are batting .327 against him during this span. The Braves are 5-1 versus lefty starters this season. They have the second-highest batting average against southpaw pitching at .324. The Braves just saw Snell 12 days ago and got to him for four runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings. |
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04-09-23 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
The combination of good pitching - both starting and bullpen - and bad hitting weather should result in a score similar to the five runs that were scored in New York's 4-1 victory yesterday. The Yankees are going with Nestor Cortes, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and on the brink of stardom. Cortest is 3-0 lifetime against the Orioles with a 1.06 ERA. Tyler Wells will make his first start of the year for Baltimore. He hasn't been scored on in five innings of relief that season. The temperature will be in the upper 40's with the wind blowing in. |
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04-06-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
The Dodgers aren't likely to match their major league-best 111 wins of last season. They don't have departed Trea Turner, Justin Turner and out for the season injured star pitcher Walker Buehler. But you know what? The Dodgers are still darn good and they still have outstanding starting pitchers. They are a team either worth playing on, or passing. I'm on the Dodgers here in this early revenge spot Dustin May is a perfect example of the Dodgers' deep starting pitching staff. He goes against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly. It's a repeat of the team's game from last Friday when the two starting pitchers went up against each other. May, on the comeback trail after missing much of the past two seasons following Tommy John surgery, displayed his vast potential throwing seven shutout innings allowing only three hits. Kelly couldn't get out of the fourth inning having allowed three hits and four walks. Yet the Diamondbacks won, 2-1, thanks to a two-run eighth inning homer by pinch hitter Kyle Lewis against Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia. The Dodgers were minus $1.87 in that game. Now the price is more reasonable to get the vastly superior team. Clayton Kershaw has had trouble with the Diamondbacks, but LA is 20-7 during its last 27 games played at Arizona. May could be an emerging monster now that he's finally healthy. Kelly is a decent pitcher. However, he's facing a Dodgers offense that ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers with 13 in six games, is first in OPS and has scored the third-most runs. The Diamondbacks, by contrast, rank 25th in runs, have hit only four homers and are batting just .224. |
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04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers -123 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Minus Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies are off to a slow start. The Rangers should be improved this season. They are off to a fast start pounding the Phillies, 11-7 and 16-3, during the first two games of the series. The Rangers did this against Philadelphia's top two pitchers, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler. Now the Rangers get to drop down in class to face Bailey Falter, while having Martin Perez go for them. Perez was an underrated 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last season. He was Texas' top pitcher last season. Perez is backed by an upgraded Texas bullpen, too. |
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03-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The Under has cashed 10 of the last 11 times the Diamondbacks and Dodgers have played each other. I see that trend continuing in a pitching matchup of star starters Zac Gallen versus Julio Urias. But a big factor why I like fewer than eight runs to be scored is weather. Southern California has been dealing with lots of rain, cold and wind. The temperature is going to be much colder than normal for a Dodger home game. That's going to reduce power in what already is a pitcher's park. |
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10-21-22 | Padres -108 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
It usually takes a red-hot pitcher for a playoff team to advance to the World Series. The Padres have that in Joe Musgrove. And for good measure the Padres also have a sizzling closer, Josh Hader. The pressure is on the Phillies in this Game 3 as this NLCS goes from San Diego to Philadelphia. The Padres came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the series at one apiece with an 8-5 victory this past Wednesday. San Diego is 18-4 following an off-day. The Padres have Musgrove and a rested Hader going for them in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. He's been absolutely dominant during the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Hader is back to being an elite closer. He's struck out the last eight batters he's faced. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen can't match that. Suarez has one playoff start, which came against the Braves. Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled him in that game after 3 1/3 innings after Suarez had given up three hits and five walks. |
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10-14-22 | Dodgers v. Padres +115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. But I don't think they should be favored in this game with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Blake Snell. Gonsolin had a great year with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA. However - and this is a big however - he's thrown only two innings in the majors since Aug. 23 when he went on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Gonsolin figures to be rusty and on a pitch count putting a lot of pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that is largely untested in postseason action. Snell is a solid pitcher. He enters this game in outstanding form with a 1.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. Snell has a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 39 2/3 lifetime innings against the Dodgers. The Padres gained much needed confidence against this opponent by defeating the Dodgers in LA on Wednesday to even the series at 1-1. |
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10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -125 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
There's no secrets at this late stage of the baseball season. The teams and pitchers are all good. I just see a short lay price on getting the Braves at home down 1-0 in their National League Division Series. The last time the defending world champion Braves lost on consecutive days at home was way back on April 23-24. The Phillies got to a weakened Max Fried on Tuesday building a 7-1 lead. Yet the Braves almost pulled it out before losing, 7-6. The pitching matchup today is Zach Wheeler versus Kyle Wright. This pro-Braves play isn't directed against Wheeler. Both are excellent pitchers. It's based on the resilient Braves in bounce-back mode at what I see is a shorter-than-expected lay price. Atlanta is 42-13 in its last 55 home games. |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers. This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger. Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA. By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings. So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close. |