03-27-24 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago.
The ante is raised for the Suns after they got caught looking ahead to this matchup, losing 104-102 to the Spurs this past Monday. Phoenix has been playing better defense lately than its average ratings. The Suns have given up 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games.
The Nuggets are allowing only 103.8 points during their last seven games.
Both Bradley Beal and Jamal Murray are questionable with injuries. Beal is Phoenix's third-leading scorer while Murray ranks No. 2 in scoring for Denver.
|
03-27-24 |
Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks |
|
106-120 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago. Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.
|
03-26-24 |
Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 223 |
|
119-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have the fourth-highest Under percentage in the NBA with 57.8 percent of their games going below the total. I see another Under for the Pelicans in this matchup as they return home from a four-game road trip to host Oklahoma City.
The Thunder just lost to the Bucks, 118-93, on the road this past Sunday shooting a season-worst 37.1 percent from the floor. The Pelicans give up the eighth-fewest points in the league, rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage and are No. 1 in defensive 3-point percentage.
New Orleans is minus its second-leading scorer, Brandon Ingram. The Thunder rank third in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. Their intensity should be way up following that 25-point embarrassing loss to the Bucks.
|
03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 |
|
133-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers. Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense. Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer. The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.
|
03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 |
Top |
133-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
|
03-22-24 |
Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 |
|
99-97 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests.
San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team.
|
03-21-24 |
Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 |
|
117-127 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games.
The Rockets are playing at a faster pace than earlier in the season and have become more offensive-minded.
Houston is averaging 129.6 points in regulation during its last three games. The Rockets have been good for at least 112 points in all but one of their last nine games.
So I like the chances of this game going Over at this number.
|
03-20-24 |
Jazz v. Thunder OVER 231.5 |
|
107-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low?
Well, Utah's leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen, is out. So is Jordan Clarkson, the Jazz's third-leading scorer.
But I'll take that tradeoff to get a total this low.
The Jazz rank 27th defensively. They are last in 3-point defense. Oklahoma City is the No. 3 scoring team in the league and is the top-shooting 3-point team.
It's not a good matchup for Utah, which is obvious by this lopsided point spread.
The Thunder should have plenty of energy having been idle since Saturday.
The Jazz have played the Timberwolves in their last two games. Minnesota is the top defensive team in the NBA. But if you discount those two games, the Jazz have averaged 119.3 points in their last six games when they didn't have Markkanen.
|
03-20-24 |
Heat +2.5 v. Cavs |
|
107-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points.
Miami also is in excellent defensive form surrendering only 98.5 points per game during its last four games.
But this matchup comes down to situation and injuries. Miami is in the better spot on both of those key counts.
The Heat are without Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a back injury. But Jimmy Butler participated in the team shootaround today, which likely means he'll play after missing the last two games due to a foot injury.
Cleveland is in worse shape injury-wise. Out for the Cavaliers are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Max Strus.
Miami lost, 98-91, on the road to the 76ers two days ago, while the Cavaliers could be in a letdown spot after upsetting the Pacers, 108-103, as a 7-point road 'dog this past Monday.
|
03-19-24 |
Pelicans -7 v. Nets |
|
104-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not.
It's also a bad spot for the Nets. The Nets are returning to Brooklyn following a 1-5 road trip that essentially killed any realistic chance for a play-in playoff spot. The final blow was an overtime loss to the Spurs in San Antonio two days ago.
The Nets are 2-6 in their last eight games with three consecutive losses and non-covers.
New Orleans, on the other hand, is playing its finest ball - a season-best 15 games above .500. The Pelicans have one of the top road marks at 21-13. They are 6-1 in their last seven games with all of the victories during this span being by more than seven points.
The Pelicans buried the Nets, 112-85, when the teams met the first time this season on Jan. 2.
|
03-18-24 |
Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
108-103 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line.
Cleveland is better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have lost five fewer games and rank in the top-five defensively. Cleveland gives up an average of 109.6 points per game. Indiana ranks second-to-last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers surrender an average of nearly 12 more points per game than the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has covered five of the last six times it has been an underdog. During their last seven games, the Cavaliers have beaten three teams with better records than Indiana - the Celtics, Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans.
So I find this line out of whack.
|
03-17-24 |
Raptors +13 v. Magic |
|
96-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season.
Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday.
The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic.
This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation.
|
03-17-24 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 |
|
129-140 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago. The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games. This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: "With our size, to me, if we're going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It's kind of fits what we should be." There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it's four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time. The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's questionable with a hamstring injury. That's a nice bonus for the Under if he can't play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He's missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it's going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks' offense to fit him back in.
|
03-16-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans |
|
107-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS.
This spot sets up well for the Trail Blazers and the line value is there with the spread above what I had anticipated.
New Orleans just scored a big, 112-104, home win against the Clippers last night. The Pelicans had to play hard in the fourth quarter to secure the win. They won't be taking the Trail Blazers nearly as seriously. The Pelicans also could be distracted knowing that a four-game road trip looms ahead once this game is finished.
Portland is expected to have Anfernee Simons back in the lineup after he sat out the Trail Blazers' last game against the Knicks two days ago. It's an added bonus if the Trail Blazers get back second-leading scorer, Jerami Grant. He's doubtful.
The teams met earlier this season on Feb. 10 in Portland. It was a defensive game with the Pelicans winning by nine points, 93-84.
|
03-15-24 |
Hawks -133 v. Jazz |
Top |
122-124 |
Loss |
-133 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
Just a month into the season, the Jazz made a commitment to go with a youth movement. They haven't been very good because of that during the past 3 1/2 months. From once being at .500 the Jazz are now 28-37. Utah has lost 11 of its last 13 games. The Hawks are a playoff contender. They opened their West Coast trip with an upset loss to the lowly Trail Blazers. Atlanta can't afford to lose a second consecutive game to a bad team. The Hawks meet the Lakers, Clippers and Suns in their next three games. They are not going to be favored in any of those games. The Hawks rolled past the Jazz, 124-97, when they hosted them on Feb. 27. Trae Young missed that game, too. This game holds special meaning for the Hawks because it's their coach, Quin Snyder, first game back in Salt Lake City. Snyder coached the Jazz for eight seasons. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Spurs plus 10 1/2 hosting Nuggets The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They've won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52. So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points? Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That's why. Let's start with the spot. Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets' least important game of their current trip. It's a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup. It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead. During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games. Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That's a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It's a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.
|
03-14-24 |
Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls |
|
126-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves.
I see the Clippers accepting this challenge with a great deal of urgency making this matchup a priority. The Clippers defeated the Bulls, 112-102, at home this past Saturday before their losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves.
The Clippers have won eight of their last 10 away games. The Bulls are in a difficult situational spot after a thrilling road overtime win against the Pacers last night. Now the Bulls have to return home to play without rest. This also marks Chicago's sixth game in nine days.
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are each questionable for Los Angeles. However, the Bulls might not have underrated Coby White, who left the Bulls' game in the fourth quarter against the Pacers and didn't return because of a hip injury. White is having a breakout season and probably is the Bulls' third-most important player. Leonard and Harden should be able to go having had an off-day on Wednesday.
|
03-13-24 |
Cavs +7 v. Pelicans |
|
116-95 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth.
New Orleans is in a flat spot playing its first home game since March 1. The Pelicans return home fat and happy having won all three games during their three-game road trip. Those victories were against the Raptors, 76ers and Hawks all of whom were missing a key player.
The Pelicans rank eighth defensively. They allow two more points per game than Cleveland.
New Orleans has a better road record than a home mark. The Pelicans have lost and failed to cover in two of their past three home contests.
|
03-13-24 |
Bulls +4 v. Pacers |
Top |
132-129 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 10 m |
Show
|
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday.
But now's the time to sell high on the Pacers as they return home to host the Bulls playing without rest following that 2-0 road trip. It's the Pacers' first home game in six days and just their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since Feb. 28.
Oh, yes, the Pacers are 1-8 the past nine times when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've lost to far worse teams than the Bulls during this span when playing without rest.
The Bulls have won eight of their last 11 road games with two of those defeats occurring to the Cavaliers by three points and to the Magic in overtime.
There's a negative perception of the Bulls because Chicago is missing Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Patrick William. But the Bulls still have star power with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with emerging Coby White, who has quietly averaged 19.6 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game.
|
03-11-24 |
Celtics v. Blazers OVER 217 |
|
121-99 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Celtics are going to get their points against a below average Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage. Boston ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game.
I expected the Trail Blazers to contribute their share of points in getting this total to go Over. Portland has reached at least 120 points in three of its last six games.
Portland has gotten two of its key offensive contributors back with Deandre Ayton and Scoot Henderson healthy. They join Anfernee Simons, the Trail Blazers' leading scorer, to give Portland scoring punch. It's just an added bonus if Jerami Grant can play for Portland.
|
03-11-24 |
Warriors -4 v. Spurs |
Top |
112-102 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 42 m |
Show
|
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer.
I know that going in. But it doesn't matter. I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Spurs in this rapid revenge spot.
The Spurs stunned the totally flat Warriors, 126-113, at San Francisco this past Saturday as 12 1/2-point underdogs. Curry didn't play and he remains out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have the rest of their stars back in action, though, including Klay Thompson and Chris Paul.
Golden State is holding onto the 10th playoff spot in the West, giving it a place in the play-in tournament. The Warriors, however, can't afford to take the 14-50 Spurs lightly. Golden State's next two games are on the road against the Mavericks and resurgent Lakers, who are off home victories against the Timberwolves and Bucks.
The Warriors are 8-1 SU and ATS during their past nine road games with the only defeat in this span coming to the Celtics. They've defeated the Spurs four straight times in San Antonio. The Spurs haven't been home in eight days. So their concentration level could be off and their motivation down after having just upset the Warriors.
|
03-10-24 |
Wizards v. Heat -9.5 |
|
110-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday. Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards. "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills. The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.
|
03-10-24 |
Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 225 |
Top |
116-103 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 22 m |
Show
|
It's easy to perceive the Pelicans as an offensive team with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Truth be told, though, the Pelicans are a defensive-minded club. If you discount a 123-114 loss to the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, New Orleans has surrendered an average of only 100.9 points in its last 10 games. The Under has cashed in eight of the Pelicans' past 10 games. It takes two to make an Under work. The Hawks should do their part. Atlanta is an entirely different team without injured superstar guard Trae Young. The Hawks are averaging 119.9 points on the season while giving up 121.5 points. However, in the last seven games that Young has missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points and allowing just 102.8 points.
|
03-08-24 |
Bucks -135 v. Lakers |
|
122-123 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Bucks are at least one tier above the Lakers and have strong motivation after suffering an embarrassing, 125-90, road loss to the Warriors two days ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo was especially vocal about the Bucks' bad loss.
Milwaukee had been playing its best defensive ball of the season before that defeat, holding its previous five foes to an average of 96.8 points.
The Bucks are 6-1 in their last seven games. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games.
There's a chance LeBron James doesn't play for the Lakers after he left the Lakers' last game with ankle soreness against the Kings this past Wednesday.
I like the Bucks to win even if James plays. It's just an extra cherry if James doesn't suit up.
|
03-07-24 |
Spurs +11 v. Kings |
|
129-131 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120.
I understand San Antonio has the third-worst record in the NBA and won't have star rookie Victor Wembanyama. He's out with a sprained ankle. But the Spurs upset both the Pacers and Thunder before losing to the Rockets, 114-101, at Houston in their last game two days ago. San Antonio has covered five of its last seven games.
Wembanyama didn't shoot well when the Spurs and Kings last met on Feb. 22. The Kings hosted the Spurs in that game and only by five points, 127-122. Wembanyama shot just 8-of-23 from the floor and was 1-of-6 from 3-point range. Wembanyama didn't play well either in the Spurs' loss to the Rockets scoring just 10 points, which was his lowest scoring output since Dec. 21.
|
03-06-24 |
Bucks v. Warriors -4 |
Top |
90-125 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 2 m |
Show
|
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks.
The Warriors could be back to full strength and are off an utterly humiliating, 140-88, nationally televised road loss to the Celtics this past Sunday afternoon.
I want Golden State going for me at home following that embarrassment.
The Bucks, by contrast, are fat and happy having defeated the Clippers, 113-106, at home this past Monday despite not having superstar Antetokounmpo. He missed that game due to Achilles soreness, which has rendered him questionable for this game.
Despite the loss to the Celtics, the Warriors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. They are expected to get back Brandin Podziemski and Andrew Wiggins, who had missed the past four games because of a personal matter. Wiggins is the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer and an ace defender. Podziemski is Golden State's fifth-leading scorer and is second on the team in rebounds per game.
Not only could the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo, but they are down their third-best player, Khris Middleton. He's out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have won and covered against the Bucks at home each of the past three seasons.
|
03-05-24 |
Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 |
|
139-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Raptors are just starting to experience life without Scottie Barnes, who is their key player leading them in scoring and assists. Barnes suffered a broken hand two games ago against the Warriors.
Barnes played fewer than 16 minutes against the Warriors before sustaining the injury. The Raptors scored only 105 points vs Golden State. Toronto then scored 111 points against a bad defensive team, the Hornets, in their last game. Charlotte gives up an average of 118 points a game.
Now the Barnes-less Raptors go against a rested New Orleans team that has been idle the past three days. The Pelicans are a huge step up in defensive class. New Orleans ranks eighth defensively and is No. 2 in 3-point defense. Opponents have scored fewer than 107 points in six of the last nine games against the Pelicans. The Under has cashed the past five times in Pelicans' games.
If you discount two games against the Pacers and one against the Wizards - teams who are third from the bottom and last in defense - the Pelicans are averaging 105.3 points in their last six games.
|
03-04-24 |
Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
106-113 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 16 m |
Show
|
Doc Rivers may not be the greatest strategist, but the Bucks have been playing much better defense lately under him than they did for Adrian Griffin. Milwaukee has given up an average of only 97.2 points during its last five games. That would rank first in the NBA by a good nine points if computed out for the entire season. The Clippers rank third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bucks' defensive strength is its perimeter defense. Milwaukee is sixth in 3-point defense. The Clippers would be averaging only 103.2 points in their last five games if you discount their 140-point game against the defenseless Wizards. The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team and are coming off an 89-88 defensive slugfest road win against the Timberwolves on Sunday. The Clippers forced 15 Minnesota turnovers and held the Timberwolves to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Clippers rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace and that was with Russell Westbrook, who is out now. Doubtful the Clippers will want to play up-tempo against the Bucks especially without rest.
|
03-03-24 |
Pacers -6 v. Spurs |
|
105-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 23 m |
Show
|
It wasn't just the Pacers losing on the road to the Pelicans this past Friday. It was how they lost. New Orleans thoroughly embarrassed the Pacers beating them, 129-102. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, an emerging superstar, was held scoreless.
The Pacers and Haliburton desperately want to redeem themselves. They are in a great position here to do just that.
Indiana is stepping way down in class meeting the 12-48 Spurs, who have the worst record in the Western Conference. San Antonio also is fat and happy, after stunning the Thunder, 132-118, as a double-digit 'dog this past Thursday in their first home game since Feb. 3. The Spurs had lost their previous five games by an average of 12.2 points.
The Pacers are 34-27 and have the fifth-best ATS mark in the NBA. They are the No. 1 scoring and field goal percentage team in the league. Indiana took full advantage of the Spurs' bottom-five defense in the first meeting, rolling past San Antonio, 152-111.
|
03-03-24 |
Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
88-140 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball.
Golden State has won eight consecutive road games. The Warriors are 6-1 in their past seven overall games. Only once in their last 20 games have the Warriors been defeated by more than nine points.
The Warriors are used to being on center stage and they won't be intimidated by the Celtics, who they beat in overtime when they played them earlier this season at home.
"...We've just gotten healthy and found a groove," Warriors coach Steve Kerr was quoted as saying. "... It took us a while, frankly, just to figure out our team. We were leaning on what we were two years ago when we won the championship early in the season and that wasn't working. ... We've got a good bit of momentum going and we're just going to try and keep it going.''
This is a nationally televised game (ABC) and should have playoff-type intensity.
|
03-02-24 |
Hawks +2 v. Nets |
|
102-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
Even without injured Trae Young, the Hawks are better than the Nets. So I want Atlanta in rapid revenge after the Nets embarrassed the Hawks, 124-97, at home this past Thursday.
That was Atlanta's third game without their superstar Young. The Hawks had beaten the Magic and Jazz minus Young before stumbling in a flat, listless performance against the Nets.
The Hawks should be far more motivated for this short turnaround rematch. If the Nets win they would cut the Hawks' lead to two games over them for the final play-in spot.
It has been more than a month since Brooklyn won consecutive games. The Nets are 4-9 in their last 13 games and have their own injuries. Cam Thomas, the Nets' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points, is out with a sprained ankle and point guard Ben Simmons is questionable with a sore knee.
|
03-01-24 |
Warriors v. Raptors +3.5 |
|
120-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
First off, Toronto is more than capable of beating Golden State straight-up. The Raptors did just that in convincing style, 133-118, at Golden State on Jan. 7.
Golden State has picked up its game. But the Warriors' last three victories have been against the injury-wracked Knicks and Wizards and Hornets, who have a combined record of 24-94. Golden State also has a monster look-ahead game. The Warriors meet the Celtics in Boston in a nationally televised Sunday afternoon game.
The Warriors are carrying a high fatigue rating into this matchup. This marks their sixth game in nine days and second in two nights. Golden State isn't expected to have Andrew Wiggins, their fourth-leading scorer, and one of their better defenders.
Stephen Curry generates all the buzz. But Toronto's Scottie Barnes has been playing at a very high level averaging 21.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and making 50 percent of his field goals during the past five games.
Toronto has been playing well lately, too. The Raptors are 3-1 in their last four games with two of those victories coming on the road against the Hawks and Pacers. The Raptors were bigger underdogs in those games than they are here.
|
02-29-24 |
Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
131-134 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 45 m |
Show
|
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter.
The bad news for the Lakers is they have a game today. Yes, the opponent is the Wizards, who have lost 11 of 13 games since replacing Wes Unseld Jr. with interim coach Bran Keefe.
But the Wizards are rested, play at the fastest tempo in the NBA and are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
The Lakers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and have failed to cover three of the past four times when favored. The Lakers are down several big men on their rotation with Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood both out. James played 37 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 36 minutes. It wouldn't shock if either was rested, or had their minutes reduced tonight.
This is a huge spot for former Laker Kyle Kuzman, who has emerged as arguably the best player on the Wizards. Backed by Kuzman, look for the Wizards to be motivated for this matchup after being idle yesterday. The spot sets up nicely for Washington.
|
02-28-24 |
Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 239.5 |
|
114-123 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
It's easy to see why this total is as high as it is. The Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league and have a bottom-three defense. The Pelicans have an above average offense and several big-time scorers.
But I'm going Under based on several factors.
The Pelicans have even a better defense than offense ranking in the top eight. They also are the No. 1 defensive team when it comes to guarding the 3-pointer. That's huge against the Pacers. If you toss out their game against the Wizards, the Pelicans have allowed an average of only 98 points in their last six games.
The Pacers, for all of their high-scoring, have gone Under in five of their past seven games. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle is really going to be stressing transition defense to his team after Indiana lost, 130-122, at home to the Raptors two days ago.
Indiana may catch a break if CJ McCollum has to miss his third straight game because of a sprained left ankle. He's New Orleans' third-leading scorer at 18.8 points a game.
Both teams carry a fatigue factor. The Pelicans are playing without rest after beating the Knicks last night, while this is Indiana's third game in four days. The Under has cashed three of the past four times when the Pelicans have played without rest.
Note, too, the same two teams meet Friday in New Orleans. So neither team may want to show all of their tricks.
|
02-27-24 |
Pelicans -3 v. Knicks |
|
115-92 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
I like the Pelicans to cover against the Knicks even if Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum can't play. Both are listed as questionable. The Knicks, for sure, won't have two of their key players with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby both out.
The Knicks are only 3-6 in their last nine games. That record would be 2-7 if the Knicks didn't score a late basket to nip the last-place Pistons, 113-111, at home last night. The Knicks were lucky to win that game when the officials missed an obvious late-game foul that wasn't called.
The Pelicans come to New York in a bad mood after losing, 114-106, to the Bulls at home two days ago blowing a 12-point late third quarter lead. New Orleans is just as good on the road as it is at home with identical 17-12 records.
New Orleans has won five of its last six away games.
|
02-26-24 |
Heat v. Kings UNDER 226 |
Top |
121-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
Below the radar, the Heat have been playing outstanding defense. They've allowed an average of only 101.7 points in their last nine games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 10 games.
But the biggest news surrounding the Heat is about the suspension of three players, including Jimmy Butler, after a skirmish occurred in Miami's last game, a 106-95 road win against the Pelicans this past Friday.
So Miami will be down three rotation players, including superstar Butler. The Heat also could be without Tyler Herro. He suffered a knee injury against the Pelicans and is questionable. Butler and Herro are Miami's top two scorers. Terry Rozier is Miami's third-leading scorer and he's questionable, too, with a knee injury. Rozier has missed the past two games.
The Heat rank in the bottom three in terms of pace. Eric Spoelstra is an elite defensive coach. The Heat will be stressing defense here down players.
The Kings rank seventh offensively and are 10th in tempo. They are not known for their defense. However, the Kings have held three of their last six opponents to 107 or fewer points. Sacramento just beat the Clippers, 123-107, on the road last night. So this is a back-to-back spot for the Kings. They aren't likely to push pace because of that.
|
02-25-24 |
Magic v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 |
|
92-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
Yes, the Hawks are a high-scoring bad defensive team. So, why go Under? Because the dynamics are not usual for the Hawks in this matchup.
Trae Young is out. The superstar guard leads the Hawks in scoring and assists by a wide margin. He has a finger injury. Center Clint Capela is back. He had missed six games until returning for Atlanta's last game. Capela is rounding into shape. He gives Atlanta strong rebounding and shot-blocking, averaging 10.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game.
Orlando is the opposite of Atlanta. The Magic rank sixth defensively, but 25th in scoring.
The Magic are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They endured a much tougher game than expected last night. Orlando was able to edge Detroit, 112-109, on Saturday night in a hard-fought game. So don't look for the tired Magic to push pace. The Hawks' tempo could be slowed, too, with Young not playing.
|
02-25-24 |
Nuggets v. Warriors +1 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets.
Look for the Warriors to continue their momentum against the defending world champion Nuggets.
Denver also is 2-0 coming out of All-Star break. However, the Nuggets' victories were against two patsies - the Wizards and Trail Blazers. Denver had gone 0-3 in its three previous games with a pair of losses to the Kings and one to the Bucks.
Now the Nuggets face another real opponent. The Warriors should be extremely motivated. Not just because they have triple revenge having gone 0-3 to the Nuggets this season losing those games by an average of four points. But because they are playing their best ball, are home and need to prove they can beat the Nuggets.
Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets. Murray, Denver's second-leading scorer, missed the Nuggets' last game because of shin splints.
|
02-24-24 |
Magic v. Pistons +8 |
|
112-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago.
The Magic are young, though. I don't trust their mentality to bury the Pistons in what is a letdown and look-ahead spot for them. The Magic have a bigger game on tap Sunday when they play the Hawks in Atlanta.
Detroit lost, 129-115, on the road to the Pacers this past Thursday in its first game following All-Star break. The Pistons were rusty in the first half, but scored 45 points in the third quarter. They outscored the Pacers by 15 points in the second half.
Now the Pistons get to play their first home game since Feb. 4 when they lost, 111-99, to the Magic. Detroit is a better team with a healthy Cade Cunningham, who had 30 points and eight assists against the Pacers.
The Pistons have quietly been effective point spread-wise at home covering seven of their last nine home contests.
|
02-23-24 |
Wizards +16 v. Thunder |
|
106-147 |
Loss |
-112 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Emerging Oklahoma City wanted to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break. Statement made as the Thunder impressively buried the Clippers, 129-107, at home Thursday night. Now the Thunder face a far less daunting foe - the Wizards. It's a flat spot for the Thunder. So I'm going to hold my nose and back the Wizards getting this many points. Washington has lost nine in a row, including suffering a 130-110 road loss to Denver last night. The Wizards, though, have a winning point spread mark in their last 11 games. They hosted the Thunder on Jan. 8 and lost by eight points, 136-128.
|
02-23-24 |
Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 |
Top |
101-95 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
These are two excellent defensive teams, who both rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace.
The Clippers are off an embarrassing, 129-107, road loss to the Thunder on Thursday night. LA has a top-10 defense. So I see the Clippers really clamping down defensively after surrendering 129 points last night.
Memphis is the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 107.1 points a game. The injury-decimated Grizzlies rank second-to-last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
But the Grizzlies give up the 11th-fewest points in the league. They've been especially strong defensively during their last three home games holding the Bucks, Rockets and Pelicans to an average of 106.3 points.
The Clippers are big favorites. This could mean a reduction in minutes for the Clippers superstars Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden, all of whom played last night.
|
02-22-24 |
Pistons +11.5 v. Pacers |
|
115-129 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
There's a certain randomness factor when NBA teams haven't played in eight days like these two teams. Randomness is good when backing an underdog in this high of a point range.
All-Star weekend took place in Indianapolis for the first time since 1985. It was a good showcase for the city and state of Indiana. Pacers star point guard Tyrese Haliburton represented the Pacers well during the All-Star Game scoring 32 points.
It's heady stuff for the Pacers, who may come out sluggish against a Pistons squad that has the worst record in the NBA at 8-46.
The Pistons, though, often are undervalued on the road where they have covered six of the past eight times. Detroit added seven new players at the trade deadline. The Pistons have had ample time during the break to get their newcomers in sync with each other. The time off also gave Cade Cunningham, Detroit's emerging star, time to recover from left knee soreness.
The Pacers will be minus Aaron Nesmith, their fifth leading scorer at 12.6 points a game. Nesmith also is the Pacers' second-most accurate 3-point shooter. He's out with an ankle injury.
|
02-15-24 |
Warriors -125 v. Jazz |
Top |
140-137 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
I don't find it too much to ask the Warriors to beat the reeling Jazz in Utah for the second time in four days. Golden State hammered Utah, 129-107, this past Monday.
The Jazz are using the buildup to All-Star break to experiment and work on different rotation combinations. The result has been three straight losses and non-covers by a losing margin of 17.3 points.
Golden State is 7-2 in its last nine games. However, the Warriors are coming off a 12-point blown lead in the fourth quarter in a 130-125 loss to the Clippers last night. Utah also played last night, losing to the Lakers by 16 points at home. So neither team has a rest advantage.
The Warriors are in better form and are the superior team.
|
02-14-24 |
Clippers +4.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
130-125 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
No need to overthink. The Clippers are 35-17, one of the three best teams in the Western Conference along with the Timberwolves and Thunder. The Clippers' goal is to finish with the best record in the NBA. That's a lofty goal, but attainable for a team this good.
Golden State is 26-25. The Warriors are off an emotional road victory against the Jazz this past Monday. They play at Utah again on Thursday to close out the first half of their season. It's a game that was rescheduled following the untimely death of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojevic from a heart attack. So returning home for this one game against the Clippers sandwiched in between trips to Utah is an usual and tough spot for the Warriors. Their concentration level may be hindered.
There's also a physical fatigue to go with the mental stress as this marks the Warriors' fifth game in eight days.
Unlike the Warriors, the Clippers won't play again until after the All-Star break. Also unlike the Warriors, the Clippers are off a huge, disappointing loss. They were embarrassed at home by the Timberwolves, 121-100, this past Monday. That defeat dropped the Clippers 1 1/2 games behind the Timberwolves for best record in the Western Conference.
Even with that loss to Minnesota, the Clippers still are 10-3 in their past 13 games. They won't lack motivation for this matchup and should be fully focused and engaged.
The Clippers have both a top-10 offense and defense. They rank first in 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors are below average defensively ranking 19th.
|
02-14-24 |
Wizards v. Pelicans OVER 236 |
|
126-133 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
I'm going to use the Zig-Zag method on this total. Both the Wizards and Pelicans are off strong defensive performances where their offenses were held in check.
Look for the opposite to happen in this matchup, the team's final game before the All-Star break.
Before holding the Mavericks to 112 points in their last game, the Wizards had allowed an average of 126.5 points in their past four contests. Washington is the second-worst defensive team in the NBA giving up 123.7 points a game.
New Orleans ranks in the top-nine in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. If you discount a 107-83 loss to the Thunder, the Pelicans are averaging 133 points during their past four home games.
This is just the Pelicans' second home game since Jan. 26. The Pelicans want to provide a show to their fans entering All-Star break. The Wizards are likely to accommodate them since they play at the fastest pace in the NBA.
|
02-13-24 |
Wolves v. Blazers +8.5 |
Top |
121-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in.
Minnesota is fat and happy off an impressive, 121-100, road victory against the Clippers last night. The Timberwolves can't be faulted if they take the lowly Trail Blazers, a team they buried, 116-93, at home on Jan. 12, not very seriously.
Portland, though, is well-rested and off a tremendous defensive performance. The Trail Blazers held New Orleans to 93 points in their last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Pelicans' season average. However, the Trail Blazers didn't have Simons, their top player and leading scorer, so they couldn't muster up enough offense to win.
Simons is expected to return today from his left ankle sprain. That's huge. It's an extra bonus if Scott Henderson also can play for Portland. He's questionable with a foot sprain.
Portland has been home for eight days, idle for the past two full days. Minnesota is playing its fourth consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have a losing ATS mark when playing in the second of back-to-back days.
The Trail Blazers are 4-3 in their last seven home games with straight-up upset victories against the Bucks, 76ers, Pacers and Nets during this span.
When the Timberwolves rolled past the Trail Blazers in the team's first meeting, Portland was at the tail end of a seven-game road trip and had just played the Thunder the previous night. Now it's the Timberwolves who have a fatigue rating.
Note, too, the teams meet again in Portland on Thursday. So the Timberwolves may hold back some things knowing they have to play this same opponent in their next game.
|
02-12-24 |
Bulls +4 v. Hawks |
Top |
136-126 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games.
The Hawks give up 123.7 points a game. That ranks second-to-last in the NBA. The Bulls rate 11th defensively, allowing 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.
Atlanta has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 17-36 (32 percent) ATS. The Hawks are very bad in this role going 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points. It's also Atlanta's third game in four days.
|
02-10-24 |
Rockets +5 v. Hawks |
|
113-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
Both teams are playing without rest. But here's what you have to know. The Hawks have the worst point spread record in the NBA at 16-36 (31 percent). They are 5-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points. The Hawks just beat a reeling 76ers squad that is trying to learn life without Joel Embiid. Atlanta will be missing center Clint Capela. Onyeka Okongwu has played well in Capela's place, but logged 34 minutes against the 76ers last night. Houston is 0-3 in its current four-game road swing that ends here. The Rockets have come close in their last two games losing to the Pacers by three points this past Tuesday and by three points to the Raptors last night cutting a 23-point deficit to one point with 23 seconds left. The Rockets nearly won despite their two leading scorers, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, shooting a combined 6-for-18 (25 percent) from the floor. Sengun shoots 54.1 percent from the field.
|
02-09-24 |
Pelicans -115 v. Lakers |
Top |
122-139 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are playing well, riding a four-game win streak. They rested in Los Angeles on Thursday after upsetting the Clippers on Wednesday. The Lakers, meanwhile, played hard but not smart in losing to the Nuggets, 114-106, on Thursday night.
That was a highly-emotional game for the Lakers as the organization honored the late Kobe Bryant before the game. Anthony Davis logged more than 38 minutes and LeBron James had more than 35 minutes of game time. It wouldn't be shocking if one of them was held out since this is a back-to-back spot for LA. It's also the Lakers' eighth game in 12 days.
The Pelicans are younger and faster than the aged Lakers, who are 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS when playing without rest.
|
02-09-24 |
Hornets +14.5 v. Bucks |
|
84-120 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
As bad as the Hornets are, the Bucks are in no position to lay this many points to them. Milwaukee is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks carry a high fatigue rating, have key injuries and Doc Rivers has been a near-disaster so far as the Bucks' coach.
This is the Bucks' fifth game in seven days and second in two days after they were buried, 129-105, by the Timberwolves at home last night. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' second and third-best players, missed that game because of ankle injuries.
The Hornets have lost nine in a row, although they've covered in their last two games. Charlotte also has injuries, but have Cody Martin back. Clearly, though, my handicap is a fade on the Bucks, who have failed to cover 17 of 21 times against sub .500 opponents this season.
|
02-08-24 |
Pistons v. Blazers -5.5 |
|
128-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
The Pistons are 3-20 on the road this season. Their latest road victory came last night in a 133-120 upset of the Kings. The Pistons achieved this unlikely victory without injured Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic leaving them with only nine players.
I don't see the Pistons, losers of 43 of 50 games, pulling off another upset on consecutive nights even if Cunningham, the team's leading scorer, returns to their lineup. Bogdanovic was traded to the Knicks today leaving the Pistons short-handed again.
Portland is 15-35, but playing better. The Trail Blazers upset both the Bucks and 76ers at home before traveling to Denver to play two straight road games against the Nuggets. They lost both of those games to the defending world champions, but covered each game. Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Now the Trail Blazers return home, while stepping way down in class. They have had ample rest and preparation time, too, having last played this past Sunday.
|
02-08-24 |
Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 |
Top |
114-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. Sometimes it's dangerous to back a team playing their first home game following a lengthy road trip. That certainly was the case with the Clippers last night. They lost to the Pelicans by 11 points as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The Clippers had been playing well, too.
But this is a different case and much different situation. The Clippers only had one day of rest after returning to Los Angeles. The Lakers concluded their road swing this past Monday giving them two full days of rest and preparation.
This also is the Lakers' biggest game of the season and it isn't just because they're playing the defending world champion Nuggets.
It's a special night because the Lakers organization will be honoring the late Kobe Bryant before the game unveiling a statue of him. The game is going to be heavily attended with many dignitaries. It is being shown nationally on TNT.
"Win one for Kobe,'' will be the Lakers' motto. So I'm expecting maximum motivation and effort.
The Nuggets are off back-to-back home victories against the 15-35 Trail Blazers. Not exactly a worthy opponent. Denver has lost in its two previous road games, falling to the Thunder and getting blown out by the Knicks.
|
02-07-24 |
Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers.
The Clippers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday after finishing a seven-game, 11-day road trip with a victory against the Hawks in Atlanta this past Monday night. There were 293 points scored in the Clippers' crazy, 149-144, victory against the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden each played more than 37 minutes in that game.
Now the Clippers have to get used to being home having played in a different arena for the past seven games. LA has to be feeling good having gone 6-1 on its road trip. The Clippers are not only in a letdown spot, but their concentration could be off having been gone for so long. They also might be dealing with dead legs in action for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days.
New Orleans is playing well, too, riding a three-game win streak. The Pelicans don't have nearly the fatigue factor LA does. This is just the Pelicans' second game in five days.
The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The road team has won each of the first two games. Attendance could be less than normal for the Clippers because of the heavy rains that hit southern California.
|
02-07-24 |
Spurs +8 v. Heat |
|
104-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
Miami hasn't gotten going this season, losing eight of its last 11 games. But the Heat did win a satisfying game beating in-state rival Orlando, 121-95, last night.
The Heat are 1-3-1 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. They also have been terrible in the role of a large home favorite failing to cover 17 of the past 22 times when laying five or more points.
This is the start of the Spurs' nine-game rodeo trip so they'll want to get off to a good start.
Prior to their win against the Magic, the Heat were averaging 101.7 points in their previous 13 games. The Spurs are averaging 114.6 points in regulation during their last 15 games.
|
02-06-24 |
Bucks +4 v. Suns |
|
106-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz.
The Bucks had wide open shots in that loss to Utah. But they blew a 19-point lead, collapsing in the fourth quarter. The high mountain altitude in Utah might have had something to do with that.
Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA and fourth-best shooting team. The Bucks should fare much better with a full day rest and getting out of the mountain air. Phoenix is just an average defensive team.
The Bucks have won the past three times they've faced the Suns in the regular season. Milwaukee also draws Phoenix with the Suns in a vulnerable spot.
The Suns concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Sunday blowing out Washington. That was a huge, motivational game for the Suns because of Bradley Beal's return to face his former Wizards team.
Now the Suns are playing at home for the first time since Jan. 22. Before they had embarked on their seven-game road trip, their longest road swing had been three away games in a row. The Suns did that three times. Phoenix failed to cover in their first home game back during each of those three road games in a row going 0-3 ATS. Look for that pattern to continue here.
|
02-05-24 |
Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans |
|
100-138 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game. But on closer inspection, I find the Raptors to be a good value play here.
Toronto hasn't been healthy. Now the Raptors are after getting back RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. They all played in the Raptors' last game two days ago. That was against Oklahoma City. The Raptors were 8 1/2-point underdogs. Toronto took the Thunder to double overtime before losing but covering.
The Raptors have had a day to rest and recuperate. They haven't played in back-to-back games since Jan. 17-18. So the fatigue factor isn't that bad. New Orleans is laying double-digits despite being in an awkward scheduling spot. This is the Pelicans' sixth game in 11 days. They just concluded a four-game road trip with a one-point victory against the 10-40 Spurs this past Friday. The Pelicans pulled that game out when Zion Williamson scored with 3.8 seconds left.
After this matchup, the Pelicans go back on the road for four more games. So their concentration level could be off.
|
02-05-24 |
Warriors v. Nets UNDER 237.5 |
Top |
109-98 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
Both the Warriors and Nets are coming off high-scoring games. The Warriors lost 141-134 in overtime to the Hawks this past Saturday. Brooklyn rolled past the 76ers, 136-121, also this past Saturday.
Those games may have influenced the oddsmaker to open what I consider an artificially high total for this matchup.
Golden State had held its previous two opponents to an average of 104 points before losing to the Hawks. Atlanta is the third-highest scoring team in the NBA and plays at the fifth-fasted pace. The Nets are an entirely different opponent.
Brooklyn is average defensively, but below par offensively ranking 25th in field goal percentage. The Nets also are the fifth-worst free throwing shooting team in the league. More importantly, the Nets play at the second-slowest tempo in the NBA. Golden State ranks 12th in tempo. The Warriors' interior defense is improved with the return of Draymond Green from suspension.
|
02-04-24 |
Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 |
Top |
108-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude. Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season. The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court.
|
02-04-24 |
Magic v. Pistons +7 |
|
111-99 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here.
Orlando is playing for the fifth time in eight days. It's the Magic's fourth consecutive road contest. They just rallied from 17 points down to upset the Timberwolves this past Friday. Orlando has a bigger matchup up next - on the road against in-state division rival Miami in a battle for first place in the Southeast Division. That game goes Tuesday.
The Pistons have revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 123-91, loss to the Magic on Dec. 8. Following this matchup, the Pistons go on the road for a five-game West Coast trip. They won't play at home again until Feb. 24.
So, yes, the spot is ripe for Detroit. But are the Pistons good enough to cover this number? They have been in their last three games. During this span, the Pistons upset the Thunder by 16 points as a 12-point home 'dog, lost by seven to the hot Cavaliers as a 13 1/2-point road 'dog and covered in their last game at home to the Clippers. Now the Pistons are dropping down in class after facing those three strong opponents.
|
02-02-24 |
Magic +8 v. Wolves |
Top |
108-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.
The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.
Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average.
|
02-01-24 |
76ers +4.5 v. Jazz |
|
127-124 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
Let's get the bad out of the way first. No Joel Embiid and the 76ers are concluding a five-game road trip here. They have lost the first four games of their road swing. But things aren't good on the Utah side either. The Jazz are 2-5 in their past seven games with the only victories during this time frame coming against the Wizards and Hornets. Those two bottom feeders have a combined record of 19-74. The Jazz also are in a tough situational spot. This is their first home contest since Jan. 18. The Jazz just concluded six consecutive road games with losses to the Nets and Knicks this past Monday and Tuesday nights. Embiid may be out for a while. The 76ers need to prove they can win without him. They shouldn't lack motivation to salvage one game from their road trip. They also have revenge incentive for a 120-109 home loss to the Jazz on Jan. 6 when Embiid also was out. There's a good chance the 76ers get back underrated Tyrese Maxey, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and versatile Nicolas Batum.
|
01-31-24 |
Pelicans -135 v. Rockets |
|
110-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Rockets enter this matchup a little fat and happy having buried the Lakers at home two days ago. Houston's three previous games were against the Nets, Hornets and Trail Blazers.
Let's contrast this with the Pelicans. New Orleans is in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, came on the road to the Celtics and Bucks and at home to the Thunder, who have the best point spread mark in the NBA.
The Pelicans are at full strength. They own a big edge in this matchup from beyond the arc ranking third in the league in 3-point accuracy compared to the Rockets, who rate 27th in 3-point shooting percentage.
|
01-31-24 |
Mavs +14 v. Wolves |
Top |
87-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando. The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games. It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder.
|
01-30-24 |
Jazz +4 v. Knicks |
|
103-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month.
Both teams carry high fatigue ratings having been in action last night. Utah is finishing its six-game road trip with this game. New York is in action for the fourth time in six days.
The Knicks have won a season-high seven in a row. They were in a flat spot against the Hornets on the road after satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. The Hornets, though, were too pathetic to even hang close. Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden for this matchup. The Jazz actually had the shorter distance to travel having lost to the Nets in Brooklyn last night.
The Nets humiliated the Jazz, 147-114. That was Utah's second most lopsided loss of the season. I trust Will Hardy to have his Jazz motivated and ready to play much better against the Knicks, who played their first game of the season without Julius Randle last night. Randle is out with a dislocated right shoulder. New York center Mitchell Robinson is out for the season. Randle and Robinson are the Knicks' two top rebounders.
The Knicks also didn't have OG Anunoby against the Hornets. He sat out with elbow inflammation. Randle and Anunoby are New York's second and third-leading scorers. The Knicks are fat, happy and saddled with key injuries. That's a combination for a letdown.
|
01-29-24 |
Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
107-101 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 0 m |
Show
|
NBA teams pick up their defensive intensity during the playoffs. There are some regular-season games, though, where that playoff defensive intensity surfaces. This should be one of those matchups.
Minnesota and Oklahoma City are tied for first in the Northwest Division. Both have been pointing to this showdown. Each team got caught looking ahead, too. The Timberwolves lost, 113-112, to the Spurs this past Saturday while the Thunder were upset by the Pistons, 120-104, on Sunday.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch ripped his team's defensive performance following the loss to the Spurs calling it disgusting and that his team was immature. I expect the Timberwolves to play far better on defense, being stung by their coaches' criticism. They are, after all, the No. 1 defensive team in the league holding opponents to an average of 107.6 points a game. The Timberwolves also rank first in defensive rebounding and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, are averaging only 106 points during their last four games if you don't count their 140-114 win against the Spurs this past Wednesday.
There were just 199 points scored during the team's last meeting when Oklahoma City won, 102-97, at Minneapolis nine days ago.
|
01-29-24 |
Knicks v. Hornets +9 |
|
113-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season.
How come?
Several key factors. The Knicks are going to be without their star power forward Julius Randle for the first time this season. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in New York's Saturday victory against the Heat. This is a huge concern for the Knicks and a big distraction. Remember, the Knicks also don't have center Mitchell Robinson. He's out for the season. Robinson and Randle are the Knicks' two leading rebounders.
Another important factor is the timing of this matchup. The Knicks are coming off satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. This is just their second road game in 15 days. The Knicks return home for five games in a row following this matchup starting on Tuesday with a revenge game against the Jazz. So it's a very weird scheduling spot for New York.
The Hornets upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog last Monday. Charlotte won't lack motivation being home in a triple-revenge spot against an opponent that has other things on their mind and is in a letdown situation.
|
01-28-24 |
Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks |
|
125-126 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games.
But Atlanta isn't playing well either having lost and failed to cover in its last four games. The Hawks are an auto-fade for me in this price range.
The Hawks have by far the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 11-34 for 24 percent. They are especially terrible in this role going 1-11 ATS when favored by more than one point.
The Raptors have enough offense to take advantage of the Hawks' porous defense, which ranks in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage.
|
01-27-24 |
76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 |
|
105-111 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 39 m |
Show
|
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago.
The 76ers beat Denver, 126-121, in that game. Philadelphia hit 57 percent from the floor and 48 percent from 3-point range. The 76ers also shot nine more free throws than Denver. I don't see a repeat of that with the teams now meeting in Denver. This is rapid revenge for the prideful defending world champion Nuggets.
The Nuggets are 17-4 at home. The 76ers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games with straight-up losses to the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls during this time frame.
|
01-26-24 |
Magic -5 v. Grizzlies |
|
106-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation.
The spot is ripe, too, for Orlando. The Magic are off an embarrassing 27-point home loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday. They came into the matchup having beat the Heat the night before. Now they've had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup.
Memphis is in a rare flat spot returning home after posting upset road wins against the Raptors this past Monday and Heat two days ago. The Grizzlies are a putrid 4-15 at home and not much better point spread wise at 5-14 (26 percent) ATS.
|
01-25-24 |
76ers v. Pacers UNDER 236.5 |
Top |
122-134 |
Loss |
-109 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs.
But that's not the lead story for me in this matchup. I see the top story being Indiana's emerging superstar, Tyrese Haliburton, is going to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Haliburton leads the Pacers in scoring at 23.6 points per game and tops the NBA in assists at 12.6 a game.
Haliburton's absence changes many things, including the total. He has missed seven of Indiana's last nine games. The Pacers have gone Under in six of their past seven games minus Haliburton, including a 114-109 home loss to the Nuggets this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 14 points.
It's not a coincidence the Pacers are an Under team without Haliburton. Not only do they miss his dynamic offense, but their tempo is slower without him. Indiana averages 124.6 points. The Pacers have averaged 108.2 points in their last four games minus Haliburton.
Embiid's scoring gets all the attention. But the 76ers are a strong defensive club. They give up the eighth-fewest points in the league and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense.
Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. The Pacers are going to have to dig deep to beat the 76ers. They are home, though, and should provide a strong defensive effort to compensate for not having Haliburton.
|
01-24-24 |
Hawks v. Warriors -7 |
Top |
112-134 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.
The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.
Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.
Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.
Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).
The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.
While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.
|
01-24-24 |
Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 232.5 |
|
106-113 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points.
Charlotte and Detroit are vastly different opponents for each other after its last game. The Hornets and Pistons have bottom-eight offenses.
The Hornets just dealt high-scoring gunner Terry Rozier so their offense will be going through an adjustment. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford says he likes to stress defense. Well here's his chance. The Pistons may have helped get Bucks coach Adrian Griffin fired because Milwaukee permitted Detroit to average 131.5 points in two games vs the Bucks.
The Pistons should be fired-up having a chance at a rare home win. The Hornets are in letdown mode after stunning Minnesota.
Charlotte and Detroit played once this season back on Oct. 27 and there were just 210 points scored in the Pistons' 111-99 road victory.
|
01-23-24 |
Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 |
|
124-153 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over.
I'm expecting a lot of energy from both teams. Utah last played this past Saturday. New Orleans hasn't been in action since last Friday.
The Jazz are averaging 126.4 points in regulation during their last 11 games. If you discount a 126-97 road loss to the Celtics that average rises to 129.4 points. Utah is the 10th-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Pelicans have surrendered at least 123 points in three of their past five games.
New Orleans ranks 12th in scoring, ninth in field goal percentage and third in 3-point shooting percentage. The Jazz are below average defensively. The Pelicans are averaging 123.7 points in their last seven games.
|
01-22-24 |
Hawks v. Kings -8 |
|
107-122 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS.
The Hawks carry a high fatigue rating here and won't have their superstar, Trae Young. He's out with a concussion. This marks the Hawks' fourth game in six days and seventh game in 11 days.
Sacramento has lost four in a row with three coming on the road. Look at those games, though. The Kings were blown out by the 76ers at Philadelphia. But in their last three games, they lost by one point in overtime at the Bucks, fell on the road to the Suns by two points and then lost at home to the Pacers by five points. That was last Thursday.
So the Kings have ample rest and motivation. This is a great spot for them.
|
01-22-24 |
Cavs +1.5 v. Magic |
Top |
126-99 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.
The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.
This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.
The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.
|
01-21-24 |
Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 |
|
110-134 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers.
After LA's impressive home wins and covers against the Thunder and Mavericks, two teams far better than Portland, the Lakers fell apart in an embarrassing, 130-112, home loss to the Nets this past Friday.
The Lakers should be motivated to erase that frustration. They catch the Trail Blazers riding their first two-game win streak since late November. Portland nipped the Pacers and Nets at home by a combined five points. Those Portland victories are enough to catch the Lakers' attention.
I understand the Lakers have been inconsistent all season. But Portland has the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 12-29. The Trail Blazers are last in scoring and in shooting percentage. So the bar is not high for the Lakers to get a needed blowout win.
|
01-20-24 |
Cavs -135 v. Hawks |
|
116-95 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared.
The Hawks are in a letdown mode after upsetting Miami on the road, 109-108, last night when Dejounte Murray hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left.
Atlanta beat the Heat despite not having Trae Young, who ranks in the top-10 in scoring and is second in the league in assists. Young is questionable today due to illness.
The Hawks are the worst point spread team in the NBA at 11-30 (27 percent) ATS. Atlanta not only also is playing without rest, but for the fourth time in six days.
|
01-19-24 |
Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 |
|
109-108 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game. The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games.
|
01-19-24 |
76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 |
|
124-109 |
Loss |
-112 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. Wagner is sidelined with an ankle injury. He's not expected to play here against the 76ers. Philadelphia ranks ninth defensively and first in 3-point defense. The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. So the Magic won't be earning many points from beyond the arc.
Orlando is the sixth-best defensive team in the league. The Magic have lost four of their last five games. They just concluded a four-game road trip two days ago losing to the Hawks, 106-104. The Magic lost that game, but held the Hawks 15 points below their season average. The Magic have held each of their last four opponents well below their season average.
The Magic aren't going to lack motivation here. It's their first home game in 10 days. They know they win by defense. Orlando also has revenge for a 112-92 home loss to the 76ers on Dec. 27. Joel Embiid sat out that game.
Embiid is likely to play today, which is good and bad for the Under. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35.1 points a game. But he's also a tremendous rebounder and rim protector.
|
01-17-24 |
Heat v. Raptors +1.5 |
|
97-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.
Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.
Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.
That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers.
Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love.
The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here.
|
01-16-24 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 228.5 |
|
121-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
The focus will be on superstars Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. But I am thinking defense here in this high-profile matchup between the defending champion Nuggets and 76ers, who are anxious to make a statement with a win.
Only three teams allow fewer points per game than Denver. The Nuggets just held the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 16 points under their season average and their fifth-lowest score of the season.
Philadelphia has a top-eight defense and rates No. 1 in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. Just two games ago, the 76ers held the Kings 18 points below their season average.
|
01-15-24 |
Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 248.5 |
|
105-132 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 28 m |
Show
|
Indiana has gone Under the total in its last three games. The Pacers haven't had emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton during those three games. So it's not a coincidence those games have all gone Under. I find it directly related. Haliburton suffered a groin injury four games ago. Haliburton, who leads the NBA in assists and also is the Pacers' leading scorer, isn't expected back until later this month.
The Pacers have slowed their tempo and stressed defense more minus Haliburton.
The oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. He is looking at Indiana's league-leading 126.1 scoring average. However, minus Haliburton the Pacers have held their last three opponents to an average of 109.6 points. Those foes were good offensive teams, too - Nuggets (13th in scoring), Hawks (fourth in scoring) and Wizards (16th in scoring).
During these past three games, the Pacers are averaging 115.6 points. That's down nearly 11 points from their season average. The Under in Indiana's last three games has cashed by an average winning margin of 21.6 points.
The Pacers certainly aren't going to push tempo traveling into Utah's high altitude while playing for the third time in four days and second in two days.
The Jazz are a slightly below average defensive team. But they've held their last five opponents to an average of 114.8 points, which is four points below their season average of what they give up.
|
01-13-24 |
Pelicans +3 v. Mavs |
|
118-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable.
The Pelicans are coming off a 125-113 road loss to Denver. New Orleans had won seven consecutive road games until that defeat.
The Mavericks are off a highly-satisfying and hard-fought, 128-124, home win against the Knicks two days ago. That game had huge motivation for the Mavericks because Jalen Brunson was returning to Dallas. The Mavericks also wanted to show they could win without superstar Doncic, who sat out that contest.
I'm willing to take a healthy and hot Pelicans team - 6-2 in their last eight games - against the Mavericks, who may not be quite as up for this game as they were Thursday and won't have their best player.
|
01-12-24 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 219.5 |
|
96-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an in-state rivalry matchup between two top 10 defenses. Both teams have multiple injuries to key players, too. The Heat aren't likely to have Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin are questionable. Orlando will be minus Franz Wagner, its second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, and also could be without Wendell Carter Jr., Joe Ingles and Gary Harris. Miami is going to be stressing defense after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot 59.3 percent from the floor in a 128-120 loss to the Thunder two days ago. The Heat defeated the Magic, 115-106, at Orlando in their first meeting this season. The Heat were hot in that game shooting 48 percent from the floor and sinking 15 of 29 3-point shots for 52 percent. I highly doubt the Heat will be that hot again.
|
01-11-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
77-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.
Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.
Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one.
|
01-11-24 |
Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 |
|
102-135 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
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Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup. This spot sets up entirely for the Bucks. The oddsmaker knows it, making Milwaukee a strong favorite. But the Bucks should be favored by even more. That's how favorable this situation is for Milwaukee.
The Bucks are in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two in a row and four of their last five with a pair of those defeats occurring to the Pacers, who they've had problems matching up to this season.
The Bucks by no means are conceding that the Celtics are the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is their chance to make a statement. Milwaukee has revenge for a 119-116 road loss to Boston on Nov. 22. This time the Bucks draw Boston at home and they are rested having been idle since Monday.
Milwaukee will have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard, who missed the last game. Boston, on the other hand, may have to rest some of its players, or at least reduce their minutes following last night's 127-120 overtime win against the Timberwolves that kept the Celtics' home record perfect at 18-0. Boston had to rally from nine points down late in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory.
The cost was heavy minutes for Boston's key players. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all logged at least 40 minutes. Ancient Al Horford played 38 minutes. Not only is this a back-to-back game for the Celtics, but it's their fifth game in seven days.
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01-09-24 |
Raptors v. Lakers -5 |
Top |
131-132 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 27 m |
Show
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Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight.
The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham.
I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here.
Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days.
The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games.
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01-06-24 |
Knicks v. Wizards +9 |
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121-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
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The Knicks are 3-0 since acquiring three players from the Raptors, including OG Anunoby. They are off their most lopsided win of the season, a 128-92 rout of the 76ers last night.
That has to be highly satisfying for the Knicks. It also makes them fat and happy for this road matchup against the hapless Wizards.
Washington is terrible defensively. However, the Wizards are an above average scoring and shooting team. The Knicks' interior defense is down since center Mitchell Robinson was injured.
The situational spot highly favors Washington. The Wizards were idle on Friday, unlike the Knicks, and off two embarrassing road losses to the Cavaliers. Previous to those games, the Wizards had lost by four points at home to the Hawks and upset the Nets at home, covering both games.
The Knicks carry a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days.
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01-05-24 |
Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets |
Top |
122-95 |
Win
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100 |
20 h 15 m |
Show
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The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch called out his team for not playing harder and with not enough purpose. I believe the Timberwolves show up here with a lot of determination and motivation.
Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defense. The one team ahead of the Rockets is Minnesota. The Timberwolves give up the fewest points per game and rank first, too, in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions.
The Rockets are 2-0 in their last two games. Those victories have been against the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA, and to the sagging Nets, who have lost five in a row. The Rockets had lost their previous three games - all when stepping up in class with losses to the 76ers, Suns and Pacers. This is a step-up-in-class game for Houston.
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01-04-24 |
Bucks v. Spurs UNDER 250 |
Top |
125-121 |
Win
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100 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
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The Bucks and Pacers just scored a combined 272 points in Indiana's, 142-130, Wednesday home victory.
But let's not get carried away with the total like the oddsmaker has. The Bucks' last two games have been against the Pacers, who lead the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage.
Now the Bucks are dropping way down in class to play the Spurs. San Antonio ranks 25th in scoring and 27th in shooting percentage. The Spurs are averaging 99.5 points in their last two games.
Yet the oddsmaker opened this with the highest total of any Spurs game this season.
Sooner or later, the Bucks have to get motivated to play strong defense, which they did under Mike Budenholzer. There's no better time than now coming off a loss to the Pacers.
Since this is Milwaukee's second game in as many days there's the possibility of the Bucks sitting out any of their star players, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard or Khris Middleton, who is dealing with a right wrist injury and sore knee.
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01-03-24 |
Pistons +9 v. Jazz |
Top |
148-154 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
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Utah is fat and happy after getting satisfying revenge on Dallas this past Monday. The Jazz whipped the Mavericks, 127-90, after having lost to the Mavericks by 50 points in their previous matchup on Dec. 6. The Pistons have their own short revenge here. The Jazz defeated the Pistons, 119-111, as 2 1/2-point road favorites on Dec. 21. Since then the Pistons halted an NBA record-tying 28-game losing streak by edging the Raptors. Following that victory, the Pistons had their own letdown losing to the Rockets, 136-113, on the road two days ago. The Pistons should be ready again now. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks shouldn't lack motivation having formerly played for the Jazz. This is just the second time since Dec. 2 that Utah is favored. It's also the most points Utah is laying all season.
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01-02-24 |
Hornets +16 v. Kings |
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111-104 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
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This is the biggest margin the Kings have been favored all season. It's justified considering the opponent is Charlotte. But the spot isn't good for the Kings. So I'll accept this many points with the Hornets.
The Kings haven't played at home since Dec. 23. They've been on the road for three straight games. Sacramento won the last two of those away games, beating the Hawks and Grizzlies on New Year's Eve. So the Kings didn't get back to Sacramento until New Year's Day. That gave them little time to celebrate the holidays.
It's going to be difficult for the Kings to have their full concentration and motivation for this matchup. The Kings also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Orlando on Wednesday.
This is the fifth of a six-game road trip for the Hornets and ends the West Coast portion of their journey. Their previous four games have been against the Clippers, Lakers, Suns and Nuggets. The Hornets are hoping to get Terry Rozier back from illness. That would be an added plus.
The Hornets shored up their backcourt recently signing veteran Ish Smith, who was with the world champion Nuggets last season.
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01-01-24 |
Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors |
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121-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
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Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors.
Cleveland is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games. The Cavaliers just got back their superstar, Donovan Mitchell, too, in their last game after he had missed the previous four contests due to illness.
Toronto is 1-5 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS.
The Cavaliers are the more rested team having last played this past Friday. The Raptors played on Saturday and suffered a 129-127 road loss to Detroit. The Pistons halted their 28-game losing streak with that victory.
The Raptors are in transition having just made a major trade with the Knicks acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn. It could take time for the new players to adjust and for the Raptors to reshuffle their rotation.
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12-30-23 |
Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 |
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126-140 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
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It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points.
The spot isn't good either for the Knicks. They are playing for the fourth time in six days and on back-to-back days after losing, 117-108, to the Magic in Orlando on Friday. The Knicks' best players - Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson - all logged heavy minutes in that loss.
The Pacers were idle on Friday after beating the Bulls, 120-104, on Thursday. The Pacers are playing better defense, holding their last five opponents to an average of 113.4 points, down from their season average of 124.8 points.
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12-29-23 |
Raptors +8 v. Celtics |
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118-120 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
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Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort.
That could cost them against a rested, revenge-seeking Raptors squad.
The Raptors are off perhaps their best game of the season. They buried the Wizards on the road, 132-102, this past Wednesday. Before that, Toronto had last played this past Saturday. So the Raptors are rested and ready. They also have double revenge for 117-94 and 108-105 losses to Boston.
The Celtics may not be playing with a full deck. Jayson Tatum is questionable with a sore ankle after playing 43 minutes last night. Jaylen Brown didn't play Thursday night. He's questionable. Tatum wasn't the only player who logged huge minutes Thursday. Jrue Holiday played 44 minutes. Al Horford and Derrick White each went 37 minutes and fragile Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 36 minutes.
Toronto has a number of good, but underrated players in Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr.
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12-28-23 |
Pistons +17 v. Celtics |
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122-128 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
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I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof. The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory.
The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup.
The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points.
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12-26-23 |
Magic -7.5 v. Wizards |
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127-119 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
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Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards.
Washington hasn't played a home game in 11 days. The Wizards recently returned from a four-game West Coast trip. Washington is 3-18 in its last 21 games and 2-9 in its past 11 games with one of those wins being by one point against the 7-21 Trail Blazers.
Orlando just halted a four-game losing streak with an impressive road victory against the Pacers this past Saturday. The Magic's four losses were to the Bucks, Heat and Celtics twice. So this is a tremendous drop in class.
The Magic have a height advantage and give up 16.6 fewer points per game than the Wizards, who are the worst defensive team in the league. The Magic also can be trusted to give a full effort. That's not always a given in today's NBA.
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12-25-23 |
76ers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 |
|
113-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 23 m |
Show
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The big news here is Joel Embiid is out with a sprained ankle. Embiid is a strong rebounder and rim protector, but his absence is going to be felt more on Philadelphia's offense. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35 points a game. He also averages six assists.
The Heat may be without their superstar, too. Jimmy Butler has missed the last two games with a strained left calf. He's questionable.
These already are two strong defenses and now they might dodge each team's best player. The 76ers rank sixth in scoring defense. Miami is right below them, giving up the seventh-fewest points per game.
The 76ers have held their seven opponents to an average of 102.5 points. The Heat last played on Friday giving their coach, defensive whiz Erik Spoelstra, ample planning time for this matchup.
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12-23-23 |
Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 244.5 |
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130-111 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
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There are a number of odd circumstances that work against this total going Over.
First off is this is an extreme early start time. That's often a plus for the Under. Then you have the Bucks playing in their first true road game - not being home or at a neutral site - this month. It's the Bucks' first game away from Milwaukee in more than two weeks.
The Knicks also are in a weird scheduling spot. They are coming home after five consecutive road games. It's New York's first home game in 11 days.
Defensive-minded center Mitchell Robinson is out for the Knicks. He was a great player for the Under. But the Knicks always are going to stress defense under Tom Thibodeau. They give up the seventh-fewest points per game and are the top defensive rebounding team in the NBA. The Bucks have been a scoring machine. However, they scored 118 points against Orlando in their last game at home this past Thursday. That was their lowest scoring output in their last dozen games. The Magic slowed the pace and lost by only four points. The Knicks should follow the same pattern.
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12-22-23 |
Hawks v. Heat -118 |
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113-122 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
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OK, no Jimmy Butler for the Heat. I'll accept that in order to get the Heat at a near pick price against the Hawks.
Miami does have Bam Adebeyo, Tyler Herro and coach Erik Spoelstra. The Heat does have a much superior defense. Miami surrenders 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.
The 12-15 Hawks have earned no trust. They are getting too much respect in the marketplace because they've won two in a row. One of those wins was against the Pistons, an all-time record bad team. The other victory was impressive, a 134-127 comeback road win against the Rockets two days ago.
I don't see the Hawks beating two strong defensive teams, Rockets and Heat, on the road in consecutive games.
Miami is playing well itself off a 115-106 road victory against the much-improved Magic. The Heat won that game minus Butler. This is an easier game for them.
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12-20-23 |
Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 |
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108-124 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
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Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games.
The Lakers, by contrast, are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since capturing the NBA's in-season tournament. The Lakers' lone victory during this span was by three points against the 4-22 Spurs.
One of the keys to the Bulls' surge is the return of underrated, ace defensive guard Alex Caruso.
There's the chance the Lakers could be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are questionable due to injuries. I still like the Bulls if those two play, but it would be a nice bonus if they didn't.
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