02-07-25 |
Raptors +19.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
Even though the Raptors won't have Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett while the Thunder gets back Chet Holmgren, I find this point spread too inflated given the situation and Toronto's skill level.
The Raptors have come on to win eight of their last 12 games. They have covered 58 percent of their games this season.
It's easy to see why the oddsmaker is so strong on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3-0 on their homestand with blowout victories against the Kings, Bucks and Suns. Holmgren returns for the first time since suffering a pelvic fracture nearly three months ago.
Toronto just suffered its worst loss of the season, 138-107, to the Grizzlies two days ago.
So the Raptors should have motivation after that embarrassing defeat. They also have revenge. Holmgren figures to be rusty, too, after being out for so long.
But the biggest factor in Toronto's favor is the situation. Not only are the Thunder fat and happy, but they have a much bigger game tomorrow night on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis has the second best record in the West behind Oklahoma City.
So the backdoor could swing wide open if the Raptors need it during the final few minutes when the Thunder surely would be resting starters if holding a big lead.
|
02-05-25 |
Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219 |
Top |
112-102 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Bucks and Hornets have met twice this season. The Hornets won, 115-114, at home for a total of 229 points during the first meeting in mid-November. The Bucks got revenge, 125-119, at home for a total of 244 points a week later.
Now the teams are meeting for a third time and the total opened lower than the closing line of the first two matchups.
Perhaps the oddsmaker was influenced by Milwaukee scoring only 96 points against the Thunder in its last game two days ago. The Thunder is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. The Bucks also rested all of their best players in what was a give-up spot.
The Hornets surrender eight more points per game than Oklahoma City and the Bucks should have most, if not all, of their key players back on the court. Even if they don't, I still like the Over believing this total is too short.
The Bucks are a top-12 scoring team. They rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting. Milwaukee was averaging 122.1 in its last 10 games before their matchup against the Thunder.
Charlotte just surrendered 124 points to the Wizards in a 10-point loss last night. The Bucks rank 15th defensively permitting an average of 112.8 points a game. That average shoots up to 131.5 points if you go by Milwaukee's last four games.
|
02-04-25 |
Heat -3.5 v. Bulls |
Top |
124-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Bulls have signaled their intention to tank trading Zack LaVine, their best player. More Chicago players could be gone soon, too. All in all, it's going to be tough for the shorthanded Bulls to have their focus and rotation in order. Chicago is just 3-9 in its last dozen game and 1-5 in its last six home games with that victory occurring against the Wizards. The Heat are back on track after getting some closure from the Jimmy Butler situation. Only a loss to the Cavaliers keeps the Heat from having a four-game win streak. The Heat buried the Bulls by 18 points when they last played at Chicago.
|
02-03-25 |
Wizards v. Hornets -4 |
Top |
124-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Hornets are a bottom-tier team. But they are upper echelon when compared to the 7-41 Wizards. This isn't too many points for the Hornets to lay, playing at home after a tough, 107-104, home loss to the Nuggets this past Saturday in which they led by four points with less than a minute left.
The Wizards halted a 16-game losing streak with a 105-103 road win against the Timberwolves this past Saturday. That put Washington's road record at 2-21. The Wizards have won back-to-back games only once this season - and that was back in October.
The Hornets' front-court received a big boost with center Mark Williams returning from a foot injury. He had 20 points and 15 rebounds against the Nuggets.
|
02-02-25 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Bucks |
Top |
132-119 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
I'm attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation and statistical matchup favor the underdog.
That's the case in this matchup where the Grizzlies try to make it seven straight wins against the Bucks. Memphis blew out Milwaukee, 122-99, at home back in late October in the first meeting between the team's this season.
The Bucks showed fatigue getting blown out by the Spurs two days ago. That was the conclusion of a four-game, seven-day road trip for Milwaukee. The Bucks had to fly back for this home game and they will take off for Oklahoma City to play the Thunder on Monday. So the Bucks' focus and concentration might not be fully there.
Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league ranking fifth on offense and seventh defensively. The Grizzlies also hold a rebounding edge on the Bucks. Milwaukee will be without Bobby Portis, its second-leading rebounder. That's good news for Memphis big men Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey.
|
02-01-25 |
Heat +2.5 v. Spurs |
|
105-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Miami is the superior defensive team and is in a good situational spot.
The Heat last played this past Wednesday. They won't play again until Tuesday. So Miami should have its full focus. The team has closure on Jimmy Butler now for better or worse. The rested Heat should be fully motivated after getting blown out by the Cavaliers, losing by 20 points in their last game.
The Spurs, on the other hand, are feeling fat and happy after blowing out the Bucks at home last night. This marks their third game in four days. Remember the Spurs just returned from overseas last weekend.
Miami dominated San Antonio when the teams met on Jan. 19. The Heat outscored the Spurs by 18 points in the paint in their, 128-107, home victory.
|
01-31-25 |
Bucks -130 v. Spurs |
Top |
118-144 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Spurs sure looked like they weren't over their jet lag in a double-digit loss to the Clippers at home two days ago after playing in Paris last weekend.
San Antonio is now four games under .500 for the first time this season. That's what losing eight of their last 10 games will do.
I'm going to fade the Spurs at this small price with the Bucks, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Milwaukee, however, is off a bad loss to the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. The Bucks should have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard. They won't lack motivation off that loss to Portland.
The Bucks buried the Spurs, 121-105, at home on Jan. 8 in the first meeting.
|
01-30-25 |
Magic v. Blazers OVER 212 |
|
90-119 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
I find this total too short given the current form of these two teams.
Orlando has recently gotten healthy. Because of that the Magic are producing more points. They are averaging 116 points in regulation during their past two games. This total is too low for the Magic with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back playing. It's an added bonus if Jalen Suggs can go, too.
Portland just put up 125 points against the Bucks and 108 points versus the Thunder during its past two games, both at home. The Thunder are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, while the Bucks rank 10th defensively.
|
01-29-25 |
Thunder -9.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
109-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
Big favorites can get a little lazy this time of the year in the NBA with the All-Star break not too far away in mid-February.
But I don't see this as a problem for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best point spread record in the league at 29-13-2 (69%).
Not only are the Thunder 15 games better than the Warriors in the loss column, but the situation lays out well for them even being the visitor.
The Warriors got away with resting Stephen Curry and his sore knees against the Jazz on Tuesday night in a 114-103 victory. Curry is likely to return here, but the Warriors still are missing two key injured players, Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.
Golden State has lost and failed to cover during three of the past four times it played without rest. The Warriors were merely a .500 team at home until beating the hapless Jazz.
The Thunder have been idle since Sunday. After this game, they won't play again until Saturday. So Oklahoma, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, should have its full focus. The Thunder won't be taking the Warriors lightly either after losing to them at home back in November.
|
01-29-25 |
Clippers -3 v. Spurs |
|
128-116 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are poised to make a move even though they lost, 111-109, on the road to the Suns two days ago. LA nearly pulled the game out after trailing by 11 points with 2:43 left. A big takeaway was Kawhi Leonard playing a season-high 28 minutes.
San Antonio has only won twice in its last nine games. The Spurs also are 2-7 ATS during this span.
This is the Spurs' first game since their Paris trip ended with a 136-98 loss to the Pacers this past Saturday. It usually takes at least a few days to get past jet lag after being in Europe. So this could factor against the Spurs.
|
01-29-25 |
Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 230 |
|
119-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 56 m |
Show
|
This total is based more on perception than reality.
The Pacers haven't been that high scoring lately. If you remove their last game against the Spurs in Paris this past Saturday, the Pacers are averaging 111.5 points in their last six games.
Detroit is averaging only 106.2 points in its past four games. The Pistons remain without Jaden Ivey. He's their second-leading scorer at 17.6 points a game. This has put a lot of pressure on Cade Cunningham to carry the offense. Cunningham may be pressing as he's shooting 42 percent during his last five games.
Indiana has held opponents to 102 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.
The Pacers may not have their full legs having been home for just a few days since returning from Paris. The Pistons don't figure to push tempo since this is their finale of a five-game road trip that began nine days ago.
|
01-28-25 |
Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 230 |
Top |
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
There's just not enough offense here with too many key players out for the Jazz and Warriors to go Over this total.
Utah isn't looking to go up-tempo after playing last night in high altitude at home. The Jazz are averaging 102 points in five games this season when they played without rest, never once exceeding 105 points.
The Jazz rank 20th in scoring, while the Warriors have the 10th best defense.
Golden State is averaging 104.9 points in its last 10 games discounting a 131-106 victory against the Bulls. The Warriors will be missing Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.
|
01-27-25 |
Pelicans -105 v. Raptors |
|
104-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
Now that they are healthy with the exception of Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans are a better team than the Raptors in my view. The Raptors could prove vulnerable in this spot returning home triumphantly after posting a pair of upset road victories against the Hawks. New Orleans has revenge for a blowout home loss suffered to Toronto when missing Zion Williamson. This is the Pelicans' finale of a three-game road swing. They've lost the first two games of the trip falling to the Hornets and Grizzlies. Prior to their last game, the Pelicans had produced at least 119 points in seven consecutive games. The Pelicans should have plenty of motivation, not just for revenge but to avoid an 0-3 road trip.
|
01-27-25 |
Magic v. Heat OVER 207.5 |
Top |
119-125 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
It has been three months, but the Magic finally have their best starting lineup in place. That lineup of Paulo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr. and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope helped Orlando defeat Detroit, 121-113, this past Saturday night. This low total is more indicative of the Magic's low-scoring not having their best lineup going. That's changed now with Suggs' return after missing 10 games due to a back injury. Banchero and Wagner, who combine to average 50 points, are regaining their shooting touches. Miami has allowed a whopping average of 124 points in its last five home games. The Heat are expected to have Jimmy Butler back from suspension. The Heat are anxious to atone for their last home games, a loss to the lowly Trail Blazers six days ago.
|
01-27-25 |
Lakers v. Hornets +6 |
|
112-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
Having defeated the Celtics at home and Warriors on the road during the past four days, the Lakers are in a letdown spot facing the Hornets. Charlotte is having its best six-game stretch of the season, winning four of their past six games. The Hornets blew out the Pelicans at home two days ago in their last game. They have surrendered 105 points or fewer in three of their last four games.
|
01-22-25 |
Pistons v. Hawks -140 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-140 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
It has been five years since the Pistons last beat the Hawks in Atlanta. I don't see the Pistons ending their seven-game road losing streak to the Hawks today.
The Hawks are going to be fired-up after having their three-game win streak snapped by the Knicks, 119-110, at New York two days ago.
The Pistons, on the other hand, are fat and happy following an upset road victory against the Rockets this past Monday.
Yes, Detroit is much improved from recent past seasons. However, the Pistons still are just an average offensive team and slightly below average club. They rank 26th in 3-point defense.
The Hawks are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They are averaging 127.6 points in their past three home games.
|
01-21-25 |
76ers +13.5 v. Nuggets |
|
109-144 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
I don't know if I can buy any lower on the 76ers than now. They've lost six in a row and failed to cover in their last eight games. Joel Embiid is once again out.
Maybe the 76ers get back Paul George, Andre Drummond and Guerschon Yabusele. But even if they don't, I'm going to take this many points with the 76ers knowing they'll have Tyrese Maxey and catch the Nuggets in a flat spot.
Denver is fat and happy after sweeping a two-game Florida road trip beating the Heat and then Magic two days ago. This is just the Nuggets' second home game in 10 days. I doubt they'll have their full concentration and motivation.
|
01-20-25 |
Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 |
|
107-96 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
Only three teams give up fewer points per game than the Rockets, who hold opponents to an average of 107.9. Houston also ranks third in defensive field goal percentage.
The Pistons rank in the middle in scoring defense. However, their defensive efficiency rating shoots up to sixth going by just the last 10 games.
This is a very early start time because of Martin Luther King Day. That's a plus, too, for the Under.
|
01-18-25 |
Cavs -5.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
124-117 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 34 m |
Show
|
Kudos to the motivated Timberwolves, who upset the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 116-99, on Friday night. The Timberwolves' reward? They have to immediately fly back home to take on an angry Cavaliers squad that was humiliated by the Thunder on national TV this past Thursday.
The rested Cavaliers have been itching to redeem themselves after losing, 134-114, to the Thunder in a game that wasn't even as close as the 20-point margin. Cleveland pulled its starters out early of the blowout in anticipation of this matchup. No Cavalier starter logged more than 25 minutes in that loss with three playing fewer than 21 minutes.
You have to go back to November to find the last time the Cavaliers lost consecutive games.
Minnesota's victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden was emotional because of Julius Randle's return to New York. Randle was one of four Minnesota starters to log at least 34 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves playing without rest, but this marks their third game in four days having lost at home to the Warriors by one point this past Wednesday.
|
01-16-25 |
Cavs v. Thunder -120 |
Top |
114-134 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Only once during the last four weeks have the Thunder lost. That defeat occurred on the road to the Cavaliers, 129-122, eight days ago.
The Cavaliers have become a great team. But Oklahoma City trumps them being home and in a rare revenge spot.
The Thunder also are the better defensive team. They lead the NBA in defense. Oklahoma City gives up five points fewer per game than Cleveland.
|
01-15-25 |
Mavs -130 v. Pelicans |
Top |
116-119 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
Tough spot here for the Pelicans. New Orleans just beat the Bulls, 119-113, last night to conclude a three-game, five-day road trip. New Orleans went 2-1 on the trip, however, they have had no chance to catch up on things at home before hosting the Mavericks. This will be the Pelicans' sixth game in nine days.
New Orleans is 1-9 in its last 10 home contests.
The Mavericks have been struggling without Luka Doncic, who remains out with a calf injury. They just dropped two games to the Nuggets, both by double-digits. Now, though, the Mavericks drop way down in class and they at least have Kyrie Irving back.
Irving had missed the previous five games due to a bulging disc in his back. He was cold against the Nuggets last night missing 14 of 18 shots from the floor.
Irving should have the rust off now. The Mavericks buried New Orleans, 132-91, at home when the teams met for the first time this season on Nov. 19.
|
01-14-25 |
Suns v. Hawks +5.5 |
|
117-122 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
These two teams met five days ago in Phoenix. The Suns shot 58 percent from the floor to win, 123-115. The Hawks haven't played since.
So Atlanta will be well rested and motivated to get revenge. Hawks coach Quin Snyder has had ample time to adjust to the Suns' hot-shooting. Phoenix makes 47 percent of its field goals on the season.
This marks the Suns' third game in four days and sixth game in nine days. It's their first away contest in a week. Phoenix has lost 10 of its past dozen road games.
The Suns also haven't won in Atlanta in more than 10 years.
|
01-13-25 |
Pistons +8.5 v. Knicks |
|
124-119 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
Sure it's a huge break for the Pistons if Jalen Brunson doesn't play after tweaking his shoulder in New York's,140-106, national TV home win against the Bucks on Sunday.
But I'm fully expecting Brunson to play. The Pistons have reached the point, though, where they are good enough to hang with the Knicks on the road especially with New York in letdown mode and carrying a high fatigue rating in action for the fourth time in six days and playing without rest.
Since Dec. 27, the Knicks have played without rest twice. They are 0-2 ATS in those games losing to the Bulls by 13 points and escaping the 6-31 Wizards by four points in overtime.
Detroit is 11- 4 in its last 15 games. This includes five victories in its last seven road games. Detroit is just one game out of the No. 6 playoff seed in the East. Only once in their last 13 games, have the Pistons lost by more than seven points and that was against the Nuggets.
Detroit and New York last met on Dec. 7 at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons won, 120-111, despite Brunson scoring 31 points. It was the fourth time in their last five meetings at New York that the Pistons covered on the road against the Knicks.
|
01-06-25 |
Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
Both Portland and Detroit are off impressive underdog victories. Each team has looked good defensively. The Pistons reach .500 with a victory here. So I'm anticipating more of an intense, defensive game than what this point spread total indicates.
This is Detroit's third game without guard Jaden Ivey, their second-leading scorer at 17.6 points a game. He's out with a broken leg. Ausar Thompson replaced Ivey. He's more defense than offense as evidenced by his six steals in Detroit's, 119-105, victory against the Timberwolves this past Saturday.
The Pistons have held their past three opponents to an average of 98.3 points. Portland ranks 25th in scoring, 25th in field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point accuracy.
Portland defeated the Bucks, 105-102, this past Saturday. That was 10 points below the Bucks' season average. And, yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo played.
Detroit is a slightly below offensive team - and that was having Ivey.
|
01-03-25 |
Grizzlies +3.5 v. Kings |
|
133-138 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
No Ja Morant, but I'm not going to turn down the Grizzlies in an underdog spot against the 15-19 Kings.
The Kings have gotten a little bump since making a coaching change going from Mike Brown to interim coach Doug Christie posting home wins against the 76ers and Mavericks. But that's not going to last much longer.
Memphis has the fourth-best record in the NBA. The Grizzlies have won 15 of their last 19 games. That includes winning five of their last seven road games.
The Grizzlies have the depth, coaching and overall talent to overcome Morant's loss here to beat a mediocre-to-bad Sacramento team that is fat and happy.
|
01-02-25 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 225 |
|
106-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
The Lakers beat the Trail Blazers, 107-98, at home on Dec. 8. That was a combined total of 205 points.
So I find this total to be too large.
The Lakers have stepped up their defensive efforts holding their past nine foes to an average of 108.6 points. Portland ranks 25th in scoring.
LA is going through a transition period offensively after recently trading D'Angelo Russell.
|
12-27-24 |
Mavs +1 v. Suns |
Top |
98-89 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
I like the spot here from a Dallas standpoint. The Mavericks are off a home loss on Christmas Day to the Timberwolves, while the Suns upset the Nuggets at home on Christmas Day.
Dallas is the better team and is a slight underdog.
The Mavericks won't have injured Luka Doncic. But that's somewhat negated with Devin Booker, the Suns' second-leading scorer, out with a groin injury.
Dallas has the better defense and has proven it can score and win without Doncic, averaging 117 points during his absence. The Mavericks are 6-2 when Doncic hasn't played.
Until defeating the Nuggets, the Suns had gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
|
12-26-24 |
Hornets -4.5 v. Wizards |
Top |
110-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
Once a season it might be permissible to lay points with the Hornets on the road. That time is now.
The desperate Hornets, fresh off a players-only meeting, are playing the Wizards.
Washington has the worst record in the NBA at 4-23. The Wizards are 2-21 in their last 23 games. Each of their last 15 defeats have been by double-digits.
Making it so tough for the Wizards is they have multiple injuries. Kevin Kuzman, their second-leading scorer, is out. So is big man Marvin Bagley III. Several rotation players are questionable, including their fourth and sixth-leading scorers.
I get that Charlotte is no prize being 7-22. But the Hornets are the healthier team and have revenge for a 123-114 road loss to the Wizards last Thursday. Charlotte shot just 41 percent from the floor and 19 percent from 3-point range in that game. Washington, by contrast, made 49 percent of its field goal attempts and hit 40 percent of its 3-pointers.
|
12-25-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 222 |
Top |
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves are averaging just 104 points in their last 10 games. They haven't scored more than 109 points in regulation during their last 14 games.
The Mavericks are an above average defensive team. Only five teams have a better defensive field goal percentage than the Mavericks. Dallas is in good defensive form, too, holding its last two opponents - Trail Blazers and Clippers - to an average of 102.5 points. Both of those were home games. The Under has cashed in 64 percent of the Mavericks' home games.
Minnesota gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA at 107.2. If you go just by the last 10 games, the Timberwolves rank first in the league in defensive efficiency.
|
12-13-24 |
Pacers v. 76ers -6 |
|
121-107 |
Loss |
-114 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
The 76ers are finding their groove this month with Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey all healthy again.
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in its last five games and fully rested having last played on Sunday.
The bar is set low here for Philly. Indiana also will enter the matchup well-rested, but with its confidence at low ebb. The Pacers have lost five of their last six games with the last one being a four-point home loss to the Hornets as an 11 1/2-point favorite.
Defense is again a problem for the Pacers as they rank 26th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage.
Indiana also has one of the worst point spread marks in its last 15 games going 2-12-1 ATS for 14 percent.
|
12-11-24 |
Hawks v. Knicks -7.5 |
Top |
108-100 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Hawks' 28th defensive rating caught up to them in their last game. Atlanta lost, 141-111, to the Nuggets at home this past Sunday.
I don't see the Knicks beating the Hawks by 30 points. Just double-digits.
New York is by far the superior defensive team - allowing an average of 103 points in its last six games - at home and much the healthier team.
Atlanta has four of its top five scorers banged-up. Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic may not even be able to play.
The Knicks are 5-1 in their last six games. Their past six wins at home have come by an average of 18.3 points.
|
12-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks -7 |
Top |
109-114 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
There is just one NBA team who is unbeaten at home - Orlando. Unfortunately for the Magic this game is at Milwaukee. The Magic are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog. They have really struggled in Milwaukee, too, losing 19 of the last 21 times there. Orlando last beat the Bucks at Milwaukee in 2019.
The Bucks are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton are expected to play in this Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals matchup. Orlando, however, is without its two best players, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
The Magic are averaging 101.5 points in their last four away from home games. The Bucks have produced at least 122 points in four of their past five home games.
Milwaukee has too much firepower for Orlando to stay within this number.
|
12-06-24 |
Lakers v. Hawks -5 |
|
132-134 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
Time to pile on the Lakers. LA is 2-6 in its last eight games with the lone victories during this span coming against the Jazz and Spurs, whose combined record is 15-28.
The Lakers are at low ebb right now. They have covered just one of their last 10 games and already this week have lost to the Timberwolves by 29 points and to the Heat by 41 points.
LeBron James is questionable with a foot injury and Anthony Davis is in a shooting slump missing 21 of his last 28 field goal attempts during the past two games.
The Hawks, by contrast, are playing their finest ball of the season with five straight victories. This includes double-digit victories against the Bucks and Cavaliers twice. Trae Young is getting plenty of help as the Hawks have improved their rotation depth and Jalen Johnson is having a big year.
|
12-02-24 |
Pelicans v. Hawks -9.5 |
Top |
112-124 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have lost eight in a row, five by 11 points or more. Their injured list is longer than my wife's grocery list. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days days and second on consecutive days.
New Orleans' last three losses have been by an average of 23.3 points.
So I don't see the Pelicans being competitive against the Hawks given the situation and their lack of depth due to injuries.
Unlike the Pelicans, the Hawks are healthy and proven. Atlanta upset the Cavaliers twice last week sweeping a home-and-away series. The Hawks got their letdown game out of the way with a 3-point road win against the Hornets two days ago.
Atlanta is a top-10 scoring team. New Orleans is a way below average defensive team. The Hawks are coming on riding their first three-game win streak of the season. I don't see them slipping here against such an outmanned foe.
|
11-29-24 |
Cavs -5.5 v. Hawks |
|
101-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Cavaliers have short revenge for a 135-124 home loss to the underdog Hawks two days ago. Cleveland is by far the superior team. so I see the Cavaliers getting their revenge. Cleveland is 7-1 on the road as part of its overall 17-2 record. The Hawks are 8-11 and have a losing home record. They also are just 2-7 ATS in Atlanta. The Cavaliers lead the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Their defense is down from past seasons, but is still above average. Atlanta ranks 28th defensively and is last in 3-point defense.
|
11-25-24 |
Knicks v. Nuggets UNDER 232 |
Top |
145-118 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Expect an intense defensive game from the Knicks and Nuggets today. That's the way recent history has gone. The averaged combined score in the past four meetings between these teams is 216 points. The most points scored during any of the last four games in the series was 226.
The Knicks are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Tom Thibodeau is a highly-respected defensive coach. He can't be happy that New York has given up 121 points to the Jazz and 122 points to the Suns during the first two games of its road trip. The Knicks held the Wizards to 106 points and Nets to 104 in their two previous games before hitting the road.
New York hasn't had three bad defensive games in a row all season.
The Nuggets just held the Lakers to 102 points this past Saturday, which is 14 points below LA's season average. The Nuggets rank sixth in 3-point defense.
|
11-22-24 |
Nets +4.5 v. 76ers |
|
98-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Nets are one of the top point spread teams in the NBA at 10-4-1 ATS. The 76ers are the opposite. They have the worst point spread mark in the league at 3-11 ATS. Philadelphia has yet to win a game this season by six or more points. The 76ers won't have injured Paul George either. He's sidelined with a knee injury.
|
11-21-24 |
Magic v. Lakers -4.5 |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
More than any other sport, the NBA is about situations and good spots.
This one sets up well for the Lakers. LA is 7-0 at home. The Magic are 2-7 on the road.
Orlando played the Clippers last night and lost, 104-93. While this isn't a travel spot for the Magic since both the Lakers and Clippers play at Staples Center, it is Orlando's third road game in four days. The Magic are taking on a hot Lakers squad that has won six consecutive games.
The Lakers have dominated the Magic, beating them in seven of the past eight games with five of the past six victories coming by at least six points.
The Magic are giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA, but really miss their superstar, injured Paolo Banchero. Orlando ranks 28th in scoring. The Magic have failed to score more than 98 points in three of their last four games.
|
11-19-24 |
Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 235 |
Top |
117-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
Yes I get that these are the two highest scoring teams in the NBA. The Celtics will be aiming to deal the Cavaliers their first loss of the season.
It's maybe the biggest game of the early season so far - and I expect far more defensive intensity than a normal November game.
These two teams aren't all about offense. They each give up 111 points per game, which is above average.
The Cavaliers are the No. 2 defensive rebounding team in the league while the Celtics rank sixth in 3-point defense.
|
11-18-24 |
Warriors -4 v. Clippers |
Top |
99-102 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
Golden State isn't just 10-2. The Warriors also have the best point spread record in the Western Conference at 9-3.
The Warriors are 8-1 in their last nine games since getting upset at home by the Clippers on Oct. 27 as 9-point favorites.
Now the point spread from that game is cut in half and Golden State has revenge motivation and a good scheduling spot.
The Clippers beat the Jazz, 116-105, at home on Sunday. This is LA's third game in four days. Golden State was idle during the weekend.
LA has been up-and-down all season with a 6-7 record. Golden State is several levels above the Clippers.
|
11-15-24 |
Clippers +5 v. Rockets |
|
104-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
The teams just met two days ago in Houston. The point spread was very much in doubt until the Clippers didn't score during the final two minutes going cold at just the wrong time.
That was just the second time in the last 11 meetings the Clippers lost to the Rockets. LA also is 5-1 during its last six games in Houston.
The Clippers have beaten better teams than the Rockets on road owning victories against the Nuggets, Warriors and Kings.
Now the Clippers get short revenge on Houston. I think the Clippers win straight-up so getting points is a nice bonus.
|
11-13-24 |
Clippers +4.5 v. Rockets |
|
103-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Clippers have owned the Rockets going 9-1 against them during the last 10 meetings. The Clippers have won each of the last five times on the road versus Houston. The Clippers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road 'dog this season. They own road victories against the Nuggets, Warriors and Kings. That's impressive.
|
11-13-24 |
Pacers v. Magic |
|
90-94 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
Beating the crippled Pelicans, Wizards and Hornets is one thing. But now Orlando has to step up in class and take on the Pacers. They have to do this, too, without their leading scorer, injured Paulo Banchero.
Indiana is off an impressive victory against the Knicks. That was this past Sunday. So the Pacers will be rested.
|
11-11-24 |
Kings v. Spurs +1 |
|
96-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
This spot sets up well for the Spurs playing at home against what should be a gassed Kings squad. Sacramento just knocked off the Suns in Phoenix in overtime last night. The Kings' four best players logged major minutes in that game - DeMar DeRozan 42.41 minutes, Keegan Murray 42:35, De'Aaron Fox 40:43 and Domantas Sabonis 38:49. It's not just playing without rest for the Kings. This marks their seventh game already in 11 days since the calendar turned to November. The Spurs are still in rebuilt mode. But they are capable, having a winning home point spread mark and straight-up home victories against the Timberwolves and Rockets. San Antonio's backcourt just got upgraded, too, with the return of Devin Vassell. He scored 18 points in his season debut in the Spurs' last game two days ago, which was a frustrating one-point home loss to the Jazz.
|
11-06-24 |
Magic v. Pacers -5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
Just five games ago, the Magic beat the Pacers, 119-115, as a mid-sized home favorite. Paolo Banchero torched the Pacers for 50 points. Things are much different now just 10 days later. Banchero is out with an oblique injury and Orlando hasn't been the same. The Magic are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. They are averaging 94.7 points in their past four games. Not helping matters for Orlando is center Wendell Carter Jr. also won't play because of a foot injury. Carter and Banchero are the Magic's two leading rebounders. Indiana played its finest game of the season two days ago in beating the Mavericks, 134-127, in Dallas. Orlando has lost its last three games by an average of 16.6 points. Look for the Pacers to get their revenge in a big way.
|
11-04-24 |
Lakers -7 v. Pistons |
|
103-115 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
After a tough early schedule, the Lakers draw the Pistons having had the weekend to rest and prepare.
Detroit, however, had to play Sunday. The Pistons were impressive in upsetting the Nets in Brooklyn, 106-92. It's a bad spot for the Pistons, who had three starters - including fragile star Cade Cunningham - go 35 minutes against the Nets. This also marks the Pistons' fifth game in eight days.
D'Angelo Russell was upgraded to probable after a minor foot injury giving the Lakers all their stars for this matchup.
I see a Lakers' blowout here.
|
11-01-24 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
137-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
The Thunder have a pair of stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 7-foot-1 Chet Holmgren. Not to be overlooked is Oklahoma City also is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. The Thunder give up the fewest points at 94.8, while also ranking first in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Trail Blazers don't have the offense to dent this caliber of defense. Portland ranks 25th in scoring and 27th in field goal percentage.
The key for the Trail Blazers to keep this game semi-close is defense. They have shown signs of doing that ranking eighth defensively during the last four games. Portland has held three of its last four opponents to 105 points or fewer.
|
10-30-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers +6.5 |
Top |
132-135 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
I like the Pacers getting this many points at home even if center Myles Turner is ruled out. He's questionable with an ankle injury.
Indiana has playoff revenge and has been pointing to this home matchup ever since being eliminated by the Celtics last season.
Boston has won five of the past six games in the series. However, all of the games have been close except one. Boston's margin of victory in four of their victories against the Pacers during this span have been by five points in the regular season, five in overtime in the playoffs and three points each during the final two playoff games. That's an average loss of four points.
The Pacers have lost three in a row with the last two coming to the Magic on the road by four points and to the 76ers in overtime. They are in need of a big win. The Pacers certainly know the Celtics well and can hurt them with their backcourt quickness.
The Celtics are fat and happy being 4-0 and off a satisfying double-digit home win against the Bucks from two days ago.
|
10-29-24 |
Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 |
Top |
120-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
Look for the Mavericks to be a step slow playing in their first back-to-back game and in action for the fourth time in six days.
Luka Doncic was held out of preseason. He's still trying to get the rust off shooting just 36.1 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from 3-point range.
The Timberwolves have won two in a row since losing to the Lakers opening night. They are one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Minnesota is in a highly favorable situational spot, too, having been idle since Saturday. This is the second of three straight home games for the Timberwolves.
Julius Randle has found his comfort zone with his new Minnesota team. He's shot 22-of-33 (67%) from the floor in the last two games, averaging 28.5 points during this time frame.
|
10-24-24 |
Wolves -118 v. Kings |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 50 m |
Show
|
There's optimism the Kings can make the playoffs after acquiring DeMar DeRozan during the offseason. DeRozan is an outstanding player and because of that there is going to be an adjustment period for Sacramento because DeRozan affects the team's 3-point shooting, floor spacing and defense.
Minnesota has a big edge having got the kinks out in a 110-103 opening night road loss to the Lakers this past Tuesday, while this is Sacramento's first game.
The Kings looked terrible during preseason both offensively and defensively. Sacramento went 0-5 in preseason with three of those defeats coming by double-digits.
Sacramento ranked 28th in field goal percentage, last in 3-point shooting accuracy, 30th in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defensive percentage.
|
10-23-24 |
Bulls +6.5 v. Pelicans |
Top |
111-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Bulls may be trading some of their best players during the season. But for now Chicago has a healthy lineup with point guard Lonzo Ball, who missed last season, joining Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Josh Giddey, Coby White, Torrey Craig and Patrick Williams among others.
That's a deep rotation and one worth backing against New Orleans, which closed last season failing to cover eight of the past nine times it was favored.
The Pelicans weren't a great home team either going 21-19. They won't have perhaps their most dangerous 3-point shooter as Trey Murphy III is out with a hamstring injury.
|
10-22-24 |
Knicks v. Celtics -5 |
Top |
109-132 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Knicks enter this NBA season with championship aspirations. That's all and good. But the Celtics are the defending world champions.
Boston has superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics have tremendous chemistry and hold a huge bench edge against the Knicks.
The Knicks' depth, short to begin with anyways, lost maybe their best reserve, Precious Achiuwa. He suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday and will be out at least a couple of weeks.
The Celtics went 37-4 at home last season. I find this number to be short.
|
06-17-24 |
Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 |
Top |
88-106 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
Boston ran away with the best record in the NBA at 64-18. The Celtics have continued their dominance in the postseason going 15-3. However, that third playoff loss came this past Friday when the Mavericks stayed alive burying the Celtics by 38 points in Dallas.
The Celtics responded from their previous two playoff losses winning by 20 points against the Heat and winning by 13 points against the Cavaliers. Those were road games. Now the Celtics return to Boston properly chastised and embarrassed for their non-show appearance in Game 4 after winning the first three games of the series.
Overconfidence certainly won't strike the Celtics now. Look for Boston to close out the series regardless if Kristaps Porzingis plays or not. The Celtics have won their past five home games, including defeating the Mavericks by 18 and seven points, respectively, in this championship series.
Dallas' role players stepped up in Game 4. That's been the Mavericks' rotation history, though. Their rotation and bench players have performed statistically better at home in the playoffs than away. The Celtics have too much depth and versatility for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to overcome unless they get sufficient help, which hasn't been the case when playing in Boston.
The Mavericks scoring 122 points in Game 4 was an outlier. A case of pouring it on at home long after the Celtics had surrendered. Boston had held the Mavericks to an average of 95.3 points during the first three games of the series.
Joe Mazzulla has grown as a coach. I trust him to make good adjustments and have the Celtics mentally ready and refocused to close out the series in this Game 5.
|
06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs +1.5 |
Top |
84-122 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Celtics didn't sweep their playoff series against the Heat. Nor did they sweep their playoff series against the Cavaliers. I don't see them doing it again against the Mavericks, who have come close in the past two games despite making only 15 of 51 shots from beyond the arc for 29.4 percent during this time span.
The open looks for Dallas have been there. The Mavericks just haven't converted. The Celtics are the superior team, but that edge is negated by the Mavericks at home in must-win mode and Kristaps Porzingis unlikely to play, or not be at 100 percent if he does.
Luka Doncic is a superstar. But he's also thuggish and a whiny crybaby always griping and gesturing about calls he thinks he's not getting. It's disgusting to watch someone that talented sink that low. However, he's likely to get the benefit of the doubt in this Game 4 after he fouled out of the last game.
Kyrie Irving should have his confidence back after scoring 35 points in Wednesday's Game 3.
The last time there was a championship series sweep in the NBA was 2018 when the Warriors took out a decimated Cavaliers team. Before that you have to go back to 2007 when the Spurs swept the Cavaliers. It's just not that common. There's too much pride at stake.
The Mavericks are the healthier team with Porzingis probably out. This is their game to win.
|
06-12-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs OVER 212.5 |
Top |
106-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Celtics have been amazingly consistent with their scoring during their last nine games. They are averaging 111.3 points in regulation during this span, never scoring fewer than 105 points.
Yet the first two games of this series have gone Under because the Mavericks have managed to only produce games of 89 and 98 points.
So the oddsmaker has adjusted. We now have the lowest total of the series.
Dallas is averaging only 93.5 points in the series. There have been two main reasons for that. The Mavericks are just 13-for-53 shooting from 3-point range. That's 24.5 percent. They averaged 36.9 percent during the regular season. The other major factor is aside from Luke Doncic, nearly all of the other Mavericks have failed to step up, especially their role players.
I expect this to change in this Game 3. Boston should maintain its consistency on the scoring end. The Mavericks, though, are due to hit more of their 3-points. Many of their misses have come on open looks.
Look for the Mavericks' role players to step up now that the scene has shifted to Dallas. This is proven in the Mavericks' playoff statistics. Aside from Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the other Mavericks have shot 48.6 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc when at home during the postseason compared to their road playoff marks of 46.1 percent shooting from the floor and 34.7 percent from 3-point range.
Dallas' big men will be able to score more inside, too, if Kristaps Porzingis can't play, or is limited, after aggravating a leg injury in Game 2.
|
06-06-24 |
Mavs v. Celtics OVER 214.5 |
Top |
89-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 52 m |
Show
|
The pattern usually is higher-scoring games early in the series, lower scoring as the series goes deeper. It makes sense as often at least one team has fresh legs. The teams are in the process, too, of trying to discover what is the most effective way to guard certain players. Both of these teams are more than properly rested for this Game 1 matchup.
Dallas hasn't played in a week giving Luka Doncic ample time to get healthy. Boston last played on May 27.
The Celtics scored 117 points in regulation in Game 1 against the Pacers. Boston produced 120 points vs the Heat in the opening game of that series and scored 114 points against Miami in that playoff opener. The Cavaliers and Heat are superior defensive teams to Dallas.
Boston has elite offensive ability and tremendous scoring depth. The Celtics averaged 120.6 points during the regular-season, which was No. 2 in the league. Big man Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play after missing the last 10 games with a calf injury. The 7-foot-2 inch Porzingis averages 20.1 points, shoots 51.6 percent from the floor and makes 85.8 percent of his free throws. He's a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks' low-post defense, which relies on smaller centers, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
Porzingis is effective because he can pass and shoot. The Celtics led the NBA in making corner 3-point shots at 43.6 percent. Dallas is vulnerable on that shot.
It takes two to make a total work. The Mavericks will bring plenty to the offensive table. They have one of the great offensive backcourts of all-time in Doncic and Kyrie Irving along with a cast of impact role players. Doncic scored 33 and 37 points, respectively, in the two regular-season games against Boston. It's going to take time for Boston to probe and figure out the best way to minimize the damage Doncic is going to cause. It's scary to think how great Doncic can be in this series if he's finally 100 percent.
The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league averaging 117.9 points. During their last game, the Mavericks scored 124 points on the road against the Timberwolves, who led the NBA in defense giving up 106.5 points a game.
|
05-30-24 |
Mavs +5 v. Wolves |
Top |
124-103 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
The record is 155-0. That's the mark of NBA playoff teams winning a best-of-seven playoff series after falling behind, 3-0. I don't see the Timberwolves putting a halt to that 155-series losing streak.
The Timberwolves stayed alive with a 105-100 road win against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. Minnesota shot 53 percent from the floor and 46 percent from 3-point range. Dallas was missing big man Dereck Lively II, who was out with a sprained neck. He's likely to play in this game. Luka Docic and Kyrie Irving were a combined 13-for-39 from the floor and missed 17 of 22 3-point shots. Yet the Timberwolves only won by five points.
Dallas is 2-0 at Minnesota in the playoffs and 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road playoff games. Only once in their last 15 games, have the Mavericks lost by more than five points.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU and ATS in its past five home contests.
I don't trust the Timberwolves as home favorites where all the pressure is on them. Maybe the Timberwolves will force a Game 6, but I'll take this many points to find that out.
|
05-26-24 |
Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
107-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
Minnesota is down 2-0 to Dallas in this Western Conference Finals series. Worse for the Timberwolves is the two losses were at home.
But don't write off Minnesota yet.
Luka Doncic is the best player on the floor. But the Timberwolves own the better and deeper roster. They also are 5-1 on the road in the playoffs.
Dallas nipped the Timberwolves, 108-105, in Game 1. Minnesota was emotionally and physically drained after winning the last two games of its series against the defending champion Nuggets, including winning at Denver in Game 7.
The Mavericks shot 49 percent from the floor in Game 1. Minnesota shot 43 percent. Dallas again made 49 percent of its field goals in Game 2, while the Timberwolves shot just 41 percent from the floor. Yet the Mavericks needed a late 3-pointer by Doncic to pull out a 109-108 victory.
The Timberwolves are due to shoot better, especially Anthony Edwards. He's 11-for-33 from the floor in the series for 33.3 percent.
The Mavericks are due for shooting regression against a defense this good. Minnesota was the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA both in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage at 45 percent. The Timberwolves are giving up only 94.2 points in their last four games.
|
05-23-24 |
Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
110-126 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Pacers nearly upset the Celtics blowing a late lead in a 133-128 overtime loss in Game 1 two days ago. The Celtics weren't fully prepared for the Pacers' fast-paced offense. Indiana also happened to shoot 53.5 percent from the floor.
I expect a much better defensive focus from the Celtics in this Game 2 home matchup. Boston gave up the fifth-fewest points during the regular season, while also ranking No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in 3-point defense.
The Celtics held the Cavaliers and Heat to an average of 94.3 points a game in their previous nine games, not including a 118-94 loss to Cleveland in Game 2 of that series.
The Pacers' defense has picked up. If you exclude a 121-91 loss to the Knicks in Game 5 of their series, the Pacers are giving up an average of 104.8 points during their last five games.
|
05-22-24 |
Mavs v. Wolves OVER 206 |
|
108-105 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
Early games in playoff series often are higher-scoring than the later ones in the series. I see that occurring here. The Mavericks have fresh legs being idle the past four days. That's a much needed break for Luka Doncic, who has been dealing with injury and illness.
The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 117.9 points.
The two teams met four times during the regular season. The combined scores of those games were 223, 220, 218 and 208 - all of which is higher than this total.
|
05-21-24 |
Pacers v. Celtics -9.5 |
Top |
128-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 32 m |
Show
|
Great job by the Pacers upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in Game 7 of their series. That puts the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. Game 1 is Tuesday in Boston. It's a bad spot for Indiana. Very bad. The Celtics are 41-6 at home. They've been idle since Wednesday. The Pacers will be in action for the eighth time in 15 days. They haven't had enough time to recover from getting past the Knicks. Boston is the superior team and has a strong situational edge. It's enough for the Celtics to cover a double-digit spread. The Celtics are 8-2 in the playoffs disposing of the Heat and Cavaliers in five games each. Boston won seven of those eight games by double-digits. The Pacers are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs. They got through two severely banged-up opponents, the Knicks, and Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Indiana had the top offense in the league during the regular season. However, the Pacers ranked 27th defensively. Offense doesn't win conference titles. Defense does.
|
05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 2 m |
Show
|
Slower tempo and much improved defensive play have resulted in the Under cashing during the past three games in this Mavericks-Thunder series.
There have been 196, 196 and 206 combined points during these last three games. That averages out to 199.3 If anything I see more defensive intensity for this crucial Game 6 matchup with the Thunder trailing the Mavericks 3-2 in the series.
Both teams are playing their best defense of the season. The Under is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's playoff games. The Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last five games.
Superstars Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander get all the publicity. But there are several unsung, below-the-radar players whose defense has been exceptional, including Lugentz Dort and Derrick Jones Jr.
|
05-17-24 |
Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 |
Top |
103-116 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
I'm going with the Zig-Zag theory here, figuring the Pacers to tie this series at 3-3 after being embarrassed, 121-91, at New York this past Tuesday. The Pacers are 5-0 at home in the playoffs. This includes a pair of victories against the Knicks with an average winning margin of 18.5 points.
The Knicks are extremely short-handed with Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and now OG Anunoby all ruled out. Jalen Brunson is playing hurt. The Knicks are effectively down to just seven players. The Pacers' bench has been taking advantage. The Knicks are wearing down this late in the season and as this series goes deeper.
So the Knicks just might pull the plug on this game if it gets out of hand looking ahead to Game 7 at home on Sunday.
|
05-16-24 |
Nuggets +2.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
70-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
Help. The Timberwolves have fallen down and I don't see them picking themselves up. The Timberwolves' lack of big-game playoff experience is showing in lost composure and immaturity.
After falling behind 0-2 in this series, the Nuggets have won the last three games by an average of 16.7 points. Denver is 2-0 in Minnesota winning those games by eight and 27 points, respectively.
The momentum is clearly with Denver. The Timberwolves hadn't lost three straight games all season. Now Minnesota faces adversity they never had to deal with all season.
I don't see the Timberwolves having enough poise to force a seventh game by winning this matchup. Nikola Jokic has gotten off to average 33 points during the last three games. I trust him more than any of the Timberwolves' stars.
Mike Conley missing Tuesday's Game 5 with a sore right Achilles really hurt the Timberwolves not just with his heady point guard play, but also his veteran leadership on the court. Conley is the one player who can keep the Timberwolves' emotional temperature at an even keel. He's questionable for Thursday's game.
|
05-15-24 |
Mavs v. Thunder OVER 212.5 |
Top |
104-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
This series has a definite Zig-Zag feel to it. That includes the total, too. The past two games have gone Under. Now we have the lowest total of the series posted for this Game 5.
I can understand the oddsmaker's need to lower the total following Oklahoma City's, 100-96, road victory on Monday to even the series at 2-2. But it is set too low.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined to shoot just 10-for-31 from the field in that game and the Mavericks were only 12-for-23 from the foul line. Oklahoma City does not have a top-10 defense.
I realize Doncic is playing at less than 100 percent and Dallas is not a good free throwing shooting team. But those numbers and shooting percentages from Doncic and Irving are going way up in this game. The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league at 117.9 points this past season.
The Thunder ranked third in scoring and field goal percentage. They also were No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage. Oklahoma City has averaged 117 points in its last three home playoff games.
|
05-14-24 |
Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
97-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
I'm not panicking about the Timberwolves losing two straight home games to the Nuggets. The Timberwolves have played better on the road in the playoffs. It could be because their young team feels less pressure when they're not expected to win.
Minnesota has been an underdog four times this postseason - twice at Phoenix and twice at Denver. The Timberwolves are not just 4-0 ATS in those games, but they won each of those games straight-up!
I see that pattern continuing here.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are elite players. They are due to play better. Meanwhile, Denver's Aaron Gordon is due for a huge regression.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are going to get their points. Just as Anthony Edwards will for the Timberwolves. But I don't see Gordon continuing with his unbelievable shooting. He's 16-of-19 from the floor for 84 percent during the last two games.
|
05-13-24 |
Thunder +1.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 14 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City wasn't just the best team in the Western Conference. The Thunder had far and away the top record in the West, six games better than the next closest team.
But after sweeping the Pelicans in the first round and burying Dallas by 22 points in Game 1, the Thunder have dropped the past two games.
Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are getting underachieving scoring from their four other starters. Dallas, on the other hand, is getting shocking offensive production from P.J. Washington. He's averaging 28 points in the past two games after averaging fewer than 13 points per game during the regular season. He is 12-for-23 (52 percent) from 3-point range in the last two games after shooting 32.4 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.
Washington's surprising hot hand has covered up that Luka Doncic is not nearly at 100 percent bothered by both a knee sprain and ankle soreness.
I expect the Thunder to step up their game, make a necessary adjustment on Washington and even the series with a win today. The Thunder had their chance leading by 10 points in the third quarter in Game 3. They weren't sharp and poised enough, though, to hold that lead. Lesson learned. Oklahoma City is the better team and will prove it here.
|
05-12-24 |
Nuggets +3 v. Wolves |
|
115-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves had their fun upsetting the defending world champion Nuggets in Denver during the first two games of the series.
But that fun ended when the Nuggets regrouped to batter the Nuggets, 117-90, in Minneapolis this past Friday.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray showed they could get the better of the Timberwolves' defense that ranked No. 1 during the regular season. The Nuggets have their confidence back now. The Timberwolves are young, untested in the playoffs and face more pressure than usual being a home favorite.
I don't trust the Timberwolves in this role.
|
05-11-24 |
Celtics v. Cavs OVER 210.5 |
Top |
106-93 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
It's only been two games, but already this series is shaping up to be weird. The Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1 and won by 25 points. The Cavaliers scored 118 points in Game 2 and won by 24 points.
So where to go in Game 3?
The Over.
The Celtics scored the second most points per game in the NBA. They ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and were second in 3-point field goal percentage. I have tremendous respect for Cleveland's defense, although it's not as imposing without center Jarrett Allen. He's missed the past five games and is questionable due to injured ribs. Boston is going to push tempo and get its points.
The key is can the Cavaliers contribute their share to the Over? They made a number of offensive adjustments in Game 2 scoring 24 more points than they did in Game 1. Donovan Mitchell is on his game. He's shooting 50 percent from the floor in the series making 22 of 44 shots from the field, while averaging 31 points.
Boston is without its best big man, Kristaps Porzingis. That hurts its defensive rebounding and opens up the lane more for Cleveland.
Note that only once during the past nine times these teams have played has the combined score been below 212 points.
|
05-10-24 |
Knicks v. Pacers -6 |
Top |
106-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
43 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are up 2-0 in this series. But I'm expecting things to catch up to the Knicks in a big way starting in this Friday's Game 3 with the venue switching to Indianapolis.
The Pacers should have won Game 1. There were several controversial official's calls that went for the Knicks, which swung the result. The Knicks then battled through injuries to produce a gutty, 130-121, Game 2 win on Wednesday night.
The Pacers made only 10 of 17 free throws in Game 2 for 59 percent. Indiana is an above average free throw shooting team. The Pacers made 78.2 percent of their free throws during the regular season.
Indiana's reserves have outscored New York's bench by a staggering 77 points. The Knicks are extremely thin without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic. The problem is now made worse with OG Anunoby suffering a hamstring injury in Wednesday's game and Jalen Brunson dealing with a foot injury.
I see all of this coming to a head in Game 3 where the Pacers will be as motivated as they have been all season. Look for the frustrated Pacers to unleash their pent-up energy to blow the Knicks out.
|
05-08-24 |
Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
121-130 |
Loss |
-107 |
21 h 32 m |
Show
|
I'm far from convinced the Knicks are superior to the Pacers. I thought that way before this series and my belief has only been strengthened by what happened in Game 1.
The Knicks were lucky to escape with a 121-117 victory after trailing by nine points with 10:28 left. The Knicks won by only four points despite shooting 54 percent from the floor, receiving seven more free throw attempts and getting several controversial calls in their favor down the stretch.
What's ominous for the Knicks is Indiana's reserve players outscored New York's bench by 43 points. The Knicks aren't likely to shoot that well again either. They were a below average scoring team, ranking 19th in points per game and 20th in field goal percentage at 46.5 percent during the regular season.
Tyrese Haliburton is due to play better for Indiana and the officiating should be more even after the Game 1 scrutiny.
|
05-07-24 |
Cavs v. Celtics -11.5 |
Top |
95-120 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
If the Celtics didn't own enough of an edge against the Cavaliers being the best team in basketball, they also have two added things going their way for today's Game 1 series matchup:
Boston is home and holds a huge situational advantage.
The Celtics are 39-5 at home. They polished off the Heat in five games with an average winning margin of 22 points during their four victories. The last game in that series was six days ago.
Cleveland had to go the full seven games against the Magic in a physical series that didn't conclude until this past Sunday. That isn't enough time for the Cavaliers to fully recover and be ready for this step-up game.
The Cavaliers have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. This includes going 0-3 at Orlando with a losing margin of 22.6 points in those playoff games.
So, yeah, I see a Boston blowout here.
|
05-06-24 |
Wolves +5.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
106-80 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 39 m |
Show
|
I get that the defending world champion Nuggets don't want to fall to 0-2 in this series, especially being the home team.
However, the Timberwolves are playing their best ball, while the Nuggets are not, and Minnesota matches up well to Denver.
Minnesota is 5-0 in the playoffs with each victory being by at least six points. This includes a 106-99 road win against the Nuggets this past Saturday.
The Timberwolves rank first in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have an emerging superstar in Anthony Edwards and big athletic skilled defenders to bother Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid. Jokic shot just 11-of-25 from the floor in Game 1.
Minnesota easily was the superior team in Game 1. There is no reason the Timberwolves can't repeat that. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS the past four times they've been favored. Denver and the Lakers scored the same amount of points during the last four games of their series.
While Edwards is averaging 39.6 points in his last three games, Denver's key scorer, Jamal Murray, hasn't been 100 percent because of a calf strain. Murry is shooting just 40.3 percent from the floor in the playoffs compared to 48.1 percent during the regular season.
|
05-05-24 |
Magic v. Cavs -3 |
|
94-106 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 12 m |
Show
|
The youthful Magic turned a corner this season making the playoffs. But I rate the Cavaliers as the better team, especially at home. It's a nice bonus if All-Star center Jarrett Allen can play for Cleveland. He's questionable with a rib contusion and has missed the last two games.
The Cavaliers defeated the Magic, at home, in Game 5 without Allen and I see them doing it here, too, in Game 7.
Orlando lacks big-game playoff experience. The Magic are 1-8 in their past nine games at Cleveland. This includes going 0-3 in the series with their average losing margin being 8.3 points.
|
05-04-24 |
Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
106-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
We may not see a point spread this high the rest of the series. These teams are more even than perceived. Minnesota outscored Denver during the 2-2 split the teams had during the regular season.
The Timberwolves are the No. 1 defensive team. They gave up the fewest points per game and also were first in defensive field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are brimming with confidence after sweeping the Suns in four games with a winning margin of 15.5 points. Minnesota is rested and healthy.
The Nuggets did what they had to do in taking out the Lakers in five games. But they weren't sharp. The points were even during the final four games of the series. Denver went 0-3 ATS the last three times it was favored against the Lakers.
Minnesota matches up well to the Nuggets because of its size and physical defense. Anthony Edwards is emerging into a superstar. Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns can make things difficult for Nikola Jokic.
Denver is banged-up. Jamal Murray is dealing with a calf injury. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a defensive ace who likely will cover Edwards, isn't 100 percent of a sprained ankle sustained against the Lakers in Game 5 this past Monday.
|
05-02-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
118-115 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 54 m |
Show
|
This has become a typical, physical Eastern Conference series. Defense has started to exert itself as we reach this Game 6.
There were 189 points scored in Game 4 at Philadelphia. Then in Game 5, the 76ers kept the series alive by upsetting the Knicks, 112-106, in overtime. There were 194 points scored in regulation.
The pace has been slow, the defense tightened and the fatigue factor is up especially for key scorers Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey. So I see a low-scoring matchup here.
|
05-01-24 |
Heat +14.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
84-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss.
The Heat have held Boston to an average of 102.3 points during the past three games. I regard the Heat's Eric Spoelstra as an elite coach.
The Celtics will be without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He's out with a calf injury.
Miami lost by 14 points in the last game. The Heat shot just 41 percent from the floor, 27 percent from 3-point range and only got to shoot 12 free throws. I expect the Heat to shoot better this game.
|
04-30-24 |
Magic v. Cavs -4.5 |
|
103-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2.
Should the Cavaliers be worried? No. I think the Cavaliers have been playing possum and they will regain the series lead following this game.
The Cavaliers are home, after all, in this matchup.
Orlando isn't the same team on the road. The Magic are youthful and inexperienced in the postseason. They have dropped six straight away games.
The Cavaliers beat the Magic by an average of 13 points when they hosted them in Games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for the Cavaliers to re-establish their dominance here.
|
04-29-24 |
Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 204.5 |
|
97-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have yet to break 92 points in falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Thunder. So now after seeing totals of 216 1/2, 210 and 210, we have the lowest total of the series.
It's too low.
Oklahoma City was the third-highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. The Thunder also was first in 3-point accuracy.
Despite this being playoff basketball and the Pelicans having a good defense, the Thunder still have averaged 115 points during the past two games. The pace is fast and the ball movement is good for Oklahoma City. I don't see that changing. The Thunder are going to produce their share of points.
The key question is will the Pelicans hold up their end on offense, which they haven't done so far.
New Orleans has nothing to lose now down 3-0 and being at home. The Pelicans are more than capable of scoring points even with Zion Williamson out. They averaged 111.9 points during their last 10 games before this series.
Oklahoma City ranked 11th defensively allowing an average of 112.7 points during the regular season. The Pelicans are overdue to shoot better than 40.3 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from beyond the arc. During the regular season, New Orleans ranked ninth in field goal percentage at 48.6 percent and fourth in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.3.
|
04-28-24 |
Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 |
|
122-116 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
Normally I'd prefer Under rather than Over when it comes to NBA playoff basketball. But in this case, I find the value to be on the Over. The Timberwolves and Suns met just two days ago. There were 235 points scored in that game.
Minnesota won again to go up 3-0 in the series. The Timberwolves are dominating the paint. They are averaging 117 points in the series. Phoenix doesn't have the defensive capability to shut down Minnesota.
The Suns are a frustrated and humiliated team. They are playing at home, though, with nothing to lose at this embarrassing stage. So I see them playing fast and furious with a tempo that suits an Over. Phoenix certainly has the offensive stars to produce a lot of points against any team.
|
04-28-24 |
Clippers +6 v. Mavs |
Top |
116-111 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 32 m |
Show
|
I'm taking the Clippers in this point range knowing Kawhi Leonard isn't going to be 100 percent - and that's if he even plays. He's questionable due to knee soreness.
But I want the better defensive team, which are the Clippers, and this many points in what shapes up as an intense, defensive-focused matchup. The first three games of the series all went Under. Now we have the lowest total of the four games. LA has held Dallas to an average of 98 points during the first three games.
Down 2-1 in the series, the Clippers will be at their most intense. It's not that they're lacking star power with James Harden, Paul George and a combative Russell Westbrook. The problem for the Clippers is cold-shooting. They are 18-for-54 from 3-point range, which is 25 percent. The Clippers made 38 percent of their 3-pointers during the regular season.
The Mavericks' defense is below average, ranking 20th in points allowed and 18th in 3-point defense. The Clippers have a top-10 defense.
I'm not counting on him being out, but Luka Doncic is questionable because of a sore knee. It would be an unexpected bonus if he didn't play. Tim Hardaway is doubtful with an ankle sprain. He's the Mavericks' third-leading scorer.
|
04-27-24 |
Cavs v. Magic -130 |
|
89-112 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Magic are a young, inexperienced playoff team that desperately needed a confidence boost after losing the first two games of the series to Cleveland on the road. The Magic got that this past Thursday when they came home and buried the Cavaliers, 121-83. I see the Magic riding that confidence and swagger rewarding their home crowd with another victory. The Magic gave up fewer points per game than the Cavaliers during the regular season, ranking fourth. Orlando's offense has improved during each game of the series. The key, though, was the Magic's domination on the boards. Orlando outrebounded the Cavaliers, 51-32, in the last game.
|
04-26-24 |
Wolves v. Suns OVER 207.5 |
|
126-109 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
Defense comes to the forefront during playoff basketball. But there has been too much of a lower adjustment on this total, especially with the Suns returning to Phoenix to host the Timberwolves. This is the lowest total of the series and Phoenix's lowest total of the season.
The tempo has been good for an Over. The teams are running. What hasn't been good is Phoenix's shooting. The Suns shot 49.3 percent from the floor during the regular season. That was the fifth-best in the league. However, the Suns have shot 44.4 percent from the field during the first two games of this season.
Minnesota has been playing good defense. Bradley Beal and especially Devin Booker are due, though, for big games. I look for the Suns to shoot much better at home where the Timberwolves will be far less intimidating. The Timberwolves will get their share of points, too, against an average Suns defense that has trouble defending in the paint.
|
04-26-24 |
Wolves v. Suns -4 |
Top |
126-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 60 m |
Show
|
Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns.
Phoenix won all three regular season games against the Timberwolves. The Suns won those games by an average of 15.7 points.
But the Suns have struggled against the Timberwolves during the first two games of this playoff series with both games being in Minnesota. Now, though, the Suns are back in Phoenix in must-win mode.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are overdue for big performances especially Booker.
|
04-25-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 |
Top |
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday.
Embiid has good reason to be fuming: The Knicks stole the game. The referees blew several calls in the final seconds that cost the 76ers that game as the home Knicks scored eight straight points in the final 30 seconds to pull out the victory.
That puts the Knicks up 2-0 in the series. But now the scene shifts to Philadelphia where the fired-up 76ers will be in Circle-The-Wagons mode in this must-win spot.
Embiid and emerging star Tyrese Maxey will have had two full days to get healthy. The next game isn't until Sunday. So the 76ers will be laying it all on the line here. I want them going for me.
|
04-23-24 |
Suns v. Wolves OVER 212 |
Top |
93-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 13 m |
Show
|
Even though this is playoff basketball, this is too short of a total given the star power these teams possess.
Minnesota dominated the paint, shooting 50 percent from the floor, in beating the Suns, 120-95, in the series opener this past Saturday. The Suns had trouble matching up and slowing down Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, who were a combined 19-for-33 for 57.5 percent shooting from the field.
The Suns shot just 44 percent from the floor and 32 percent from 3-point range. They were in the top-five in each category during the regular season making 49.3 percent of their field goals and 38.2 percent of their 3-point shots.
Saddled with foul trouble, Devin Booker had an off shooting game for the Suns in Game 1.
The Suns had scored 125 points against the Timberwolves during the final regular season game. I expect Phoenix to come out with a fast-pace and in desperation mode after its embarrassing opening game series loss.
|
04-22-24 |
Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 |
Top |
86-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
Having had the Under in Game 1 this past Saturday, I wasn't surprised when only 180 points were produced in the Cavaliers', 97-83, home victory against the Magic.
But now with a downward adjustment of nearly six points on the total, I'm going Over in Monday's Game 2 meeting between these teams.
Before Saturday's Game 1, the team's hadn't played in nearly a week. It was an unusual early start time, too. The Magic were tight competing in their first playoff action since 2020.
None of those factors will be in play for the Under in this game. It's a normal evening start. Both teams should have the rust off and Orlando won't be so nervous.
I understand both teams are excellent defensively. But the outside looks were there for Orlando with the Cavaliers packing the inside. Not only did the Magic miss 29 of 37 shots from 3-point range, but they also only made 63 percent of their free throws going 19-for-30. Cleveland didn't shoot well either from 3-point range, missing 22 of 30 from beyond the arc.
Orlando had scored 113 or more points in five of its last seven previous games. Cleveland averaged 116.7 points in its past four games before this matchup.
Yes, this is playoff basketball. The defensive intensity is magnified. But I expect the team's to shoot much better than a combined 16-for-67 (23.8 percent) from 3-point range especially with stud scorers Donovan Mitchell and Paolo Banchero.
|
04-21-24 |
Heat +14.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
94-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out.
Since clinching home-court, the Celtics have covered only once going 1-3-2 ATS. Their straight-up victories during their final six regular season games were by one point against the Kings and wins against the Trail Blazers, Hornets and Wizards whose combined record is 57-189. Boston lost by 13 points to the Bucks and by nine points to the Knicks during their two other games.
It has been a week since the Celtics last played.
No such rust, or lack of intensity, with the Heat. Miami had to defeat the Bulls, 112-91, this past Friday in a play-in tournament elimination game to get to this series. The Heat won that game despite not having Jimmy Butler, who remains out.
The Heat made the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last season. They proceeded to win the Eastern Conference, including taking out the Celtics.
No Butler, but the Heat still are the Heat. That means excellent coaching, big-game experience, tough defense and both physical and mental toughness.
|
04-20-24 |
Magic v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 |
|
83-97 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
Two outstanding defensive teams here in what should be an intense, grind-it-out opening-round Eastern Conference series. Throw in an unusual start time and a six-day rust factor and the Under should pay off.
Neither team hasn't played in six days. The Magic could be tight, too, since this is their first playoff game since 2020.
Orlando has a bottom-seven offense, but is very strong defensively. The Magic ranked fourth in fewest points allowed per game, gave up the second-fewest field goals and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding.
The Cavaliers gave up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA. They also were third in defensive two-pointers allowed and ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage.
An early day time start is another factor favoring the Under.
|
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans +1.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 51 m |
Show
|
I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday.
But these reasons aren't valid enough to change my mind that New Orleans is better than Sacramento and will prove it here. It's an added bonus the Pelicans are home and in an underdog role.
Yes, the Pelicans are off consecutive defeats to the Lakers. They have trouble matching up to LA. Sacramento doesn't have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Pelicans play with far more confidence against the Kings. They are 5-0 vs Sacramento this season, including a 12-point road victory a week ago.
The Pelicans know how to win without Williamson. They've done it before. This isn't to downplay Williamson's absence, but the Kings have their own injury woes. Starter Kevin Huerter is out for the season with a shoulder injury and sixth man Malik Monk is sidelined with a knee injury.
The Kings smashed the Warriors. But even with that victory, Sacramento is just 5-7 in its last 12 games.
A big reason why the Pelicans are 5-0 against the Kings is superior defense. New Orleans ranks eighth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point defense. Sacramento, by contrast, is 17th in scoring defense, 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point defense.
|
04-17-24 |
Heat v. 76ers -4.5 |
Top |
104-105 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored.
Superstar center Joel Embiid returned this month after being out since February. Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and ATS in the six April games Embiid has played. It's not just Embiid. Tyrese Maxey shot up Miami's zone defense averaging 27.3 points and 8.3 rebounds against the Heat this season.
Miami has a history of stepping up come playoff time. But that perception doesn't fit this season, especially against a 76ers team the Heat have trouble matchup up against. The Heat rank 26th in scoring. They can easily beat the Raptors, but they don't have it in a step-up playoff game such as this one.
|
04-16-24 |
Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
110-106 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that.
The Pelicans were embarrassed by the Lakers at home this past Sunday falling behind by 32 points in a 124-108 loss. Expect a very physical, focused defensive effort from the home Pelicans in this rematch.
"We have to come back with the right mentality," Pelicans coach Willie Green was quoted as saying. "They (the Lakers) were the aggressors (this past Sunday). We have to be the aggressive team. We have to be the more physical team. We have to keep them out of our paint and make them take contested shots and rebound the ball."
The Pelicans certainly are capable of this. They are a top-eight defensive team with the second-best 3-point field goal percentage defense.
The Lakers held the Pelicans to 108 points two days ago despite New Orleans making 48 percent of its shots from the floor, which is its average.
|
04-14-24 |
Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans |
|
124-108 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31. That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role. The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty.
|
04-14-24 |
Rockets -132 v. Clippers |
|
116-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Rockets want to finish at .500. They need to win this game to accomplish that.
The Clippers are locked into their playoff spot, which is the No. 4 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for so I doubt Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden even see the floor for the Clippers.
|
04-12-24 |
Bulls v. Wizards +2 |
Top |
129-127 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards?
Don't be. The spot sets up extremely well for Washington. The Bulls played last night in Detroit. They were intense, highly-motivated and routed the Pistons, 127-105. That victory was significant in that it clinched the No. 9 seed for Chicago and allowed the Bulls to claim home court edge against the 10th-seeded Hawks. That was what the Bulls were aiming for since that's the best they could finish during the regular season.
So this road game against the Wizards is meaningless. It's also Chicago's fourth game in six days and the Bulls will be playing without rest - at least the Bulls who Billy Donovan chooses to play. As the Bulls coach could be sitting out his key starters, or at least heavily cutting back their minutes in anticipation of the playoffs.
The Wizards are 15-65. This is their chance to at least finish their home schedule with a victory. Washington is 3-2-1 ATS in its last six home games, including upsetting the Bucks 10 days ago. (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.)
|
04-11-24 |
Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons |
|
127-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Bulls coach Billy Donovan ripped his team after Chicago lost, 128-117, at home to the Knicks two days ago.
Donovan knows the Bulls have to get better. Chicago draws the perfect patsy in the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA at 13-66. The Pistons are in free fall losing 13 of their last 14 games, including the past five.
The Pistons have lost their last three games by an average of 15.3 points. This is their first home game since concluding a four-game, six-day road trip that finished this past Tuesday night with a blowout loss to the 76ers.
Not helping matters for the Pistons is Cade Cunningham, their best player, missing the past four games due to knee soreness. He's questionable for this matchup.
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04-10-24 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 |
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124-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
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These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win.
The 197 points scored fell 29 points below the total. That was despite the two teams combining to make 35-of-39 free throws for 90 percent. Yet we have around the same total for today's rematch in Los Angeles.
Both the Suns and Clippers have stepped up their defensive play.
The Suns have held six of their last nine opponents to 106 points or fewer. Their defensive intensity should be up following last night's embarrassment. The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard and James Harden due to injuries last night. Leonard has missed the past five games due to knee soreness. I doubt he plays. Harden is questionable.
The Clippers have held six of their last eight foes from scoring more than 110 points. The Suns have failed to break 105 points in six of their last eight games.
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04-09-24 |
Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves |
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121-130 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
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The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup.
But first the Timberwolves host the Wizards on Tuesday. So you'll excuse the Timberwolves if they don't bring their "A" game in an obvious look-ahead spot.
The Wizards are terrible. But only once in their last 11 games have they lost by more than 16 points.
"...These games matter to us and we're going to try to use each one, and use each day to try to get our team better and grow," Wizards interim coach Brian Keefe was quoted as saying.
Washington won't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Timberwolves have only blown out one opponent by more than 16 points during their last 10 games.
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04-09-24 |
Knicks v. Bulls +5 |
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128-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
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I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies.
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04-09-24 |
Magic -3 v. Rockets |
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106-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
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Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team.
Houston made a move this season, but ran out of gas. The Rockets have lost five in a row. Their average losing margin during this span is 14.2 points. The Rockets are eliminated now from play-in contention.
This has changed the Rockets' focus. They are now looking ahead to next season.
The Magic, however, are in full win mode trailing the reeling Bucks by only one game for the No. 2 seed in the East. The Magic are 4-1 in their last five games.
No team has a better point spread record than the Magic, who are an amazing 50-28 (64%) ATS.
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