Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-22 | Aces v. Storm OVER 164.5 | Top | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This matchup features the WNBA's No. 1 scorer (Breanna Stewart), No. 2 scorer (Kelsey Plum) and No. 6 scorer (A'ja Wilson). But there's more than those excellent scorers as to why I like this total to go Over. Both rotations are aided in the production department. Las Vegas has back from injury sharpshooter Riquna Williams while the Storm just picked up veteran star Tina Charles after she left the Mercury. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring. The Aces have scored at least 89 points in nine of their last 13 games. Seattle ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Storm should be offensive-minded after scoring only nine points in the fourth quarter during an 85-77 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday in their last game. The Storm have been stressing offense during the past three days since they last played. Their energy level should be high. The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams. |
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06-25-22 | Mystics v. Aces -8 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday. Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics. Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue. There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter. But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics. |
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06-21-22 | Lynx +6 v. Mercury | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games. Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season. One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.'' The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx +15.5 v. Aces | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19. Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog. The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead. If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174 | 95-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
This is by far the highest total on a Lynx game and it doesn't make sense to me given the matchup. Yes, the Aces are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging nearly 91 points per game. But Minnesota is the second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA at 77.3 points. The Lynx do not play fast under respected head coach Cheryl Reeve. They certainly don't figure to get into an up-tempo game on the road against the Aces. Only once in their last six games have the Lynx had a total higher than 158. Previous to this game, the highest total on a Minnesota game was 169 1/2. The Aces have a weak bench so scoring could be down if the Aces build up a huge lead and cut back on their starter's minutes. |
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06-16-22 | Mystics v. Liberty +4.5 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game. The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.
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06-14-22 | Mercury v. Mystics OVER 165 | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Phoenix has a lot of star power. The Mercury have been shooting better, too, averaging 86 points in regulation during their last four games. The Mercury, though, have a bottom-three defense. The teams just met two days ago and Phoenix won, 99-90, in overtime. The Mystics, however, didn't have their leading scorer and best player, Elena Delle Donne. Still, they scored 85 points in regulation without her. Delle Donne is expected to play today. Here's an interesting trend that points to the strong possibility of an Over: The Mercury have gone Over in 15 of the last 18 instances when playing an above .500 foe while the Mystics have gone Over 14 of the last 17 times when going against a sub .500 opponent.
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06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks +7 | 89-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks. Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season. The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23. The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game. |
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06-10-22 | Dream v. Mercury -3 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago. Now the Mercury have their Revenge Game of the Year. The Dream embarrassed them on national television, 81-54, in Atlanta on May 29. Atlanta has tailed off since a surprising strong strong. The Dream have a losing record in their last seven games. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times as underdogs and have failed to cover during five of their last six visits to Phoenix. Look for the Mercury to go full throttle in getting their revenge. |
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06-08-22 | Fever +15.5 v. Sun | 69-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread. Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky. I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. |
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06-07-22 | Lynx v. Liberty -140 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
New York not only has short revenge for a Sunday home loss to the Lynx, but double revenge, too. Minnesota won, 84-77. The Lynx shot 49 percent from the floor, made 7 of 13 3-pointers and sank 15 of 20 free throws. Aerial Powers tied her career-high with 27 points on 11 of 22 shooting from the field, including 3-of-3 from beyond the arc. New York, by contrast, shot 45 percent from the floor, missed 26 of 30 shots from 3-point range and made nine of 13 free throws. Despite this, the Liberty rallied from a 19-point third quarter deficit to come within one point of the Lynx with under four minutes left before slipping back. The Liberty was playing its best stretch of ball prior to that game winning and covering two in a row. That was just Minnesota's second road win in seven away contests. |
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06-05-22 | Mystics +6.5 v. Sky | 82-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot. This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite. Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points. The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago. The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream. |
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06-03-22 | Sun v. Mercury +5 | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season. Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night. Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up. The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi. |
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06-02-22 | Sun +4.5 v. Aces | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference. The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround. The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively. I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday. The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity. Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win. |
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06-01-22 | Fever v. Liberty UNDER 164.5 | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Neither of these teams are good defensively. Hence, the somewhat high total. However, both are bad offensively, too. That, along with the situation, puts me on the Under. Indiana is 10th out of 12 teams in field goal percentage. The Fever rank last in free throw percentage. New York is last in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Now the situation. The Fever are playing without rest, which is a rarity in the WNBA. Indiana was outscored by 20 points in the second half in an 87-75 loss to the Mystics at home last night. Now the Fever had to fly into New York. So expect a slower pace from the Fever. The Liberty have lost seven in a row. Their 1-7 record is the worst in the league. But they have a real opportunity to halt their losing skid at home here. So expect an intense, defensive effort, something the players have talked about in their pregame comments. |
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05-31-22 | Wings +1.5 v. Sparks | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Derek Fisher's poorly coached Sparks have not beaten a winning team since their opener. I don't believe they'll end that streak against the 5-3 Wings. Dallas is stepping down in class after splitting a pair of road games against Connecticut, the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is the Wings' first game in five days so they will be well rested and prepared. The Sparks, on the other hand, will be in action for the fifth time in nine days. LA could have a shorthanded backcourt with Jordan Canada and Lexie Brown both questionable. Canada is the Sparks' third-leading scorer and top assists person. Dallas has covered 20 of the last 27 times as a road 'dog. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing an above .500 opponent.
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05-29-22 | Mercury v. Dream | 54-82 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series. |
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05-28-22 | Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense. The Mystics are holding foes to a WNBA-best 72.4 points per game. Connecticut is right there ranking second, giving up 73.4 points. The Sun also lead the league in creating turnovers and steals. The Mystics will be without their leading scorer, Elena Delle Donne. The star player, averaging 17.7 points, has a scheduled day off, according to Mystics coach Mike Thibault. The Sun recently lost their veteran point guard, Jasmine Thomas, to a season-ending knee injury. Thomas' absence could hurt the Sun's offense in this matchup. |
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05-27-22 | Liberty +12.5 v. Storm | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
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05-26-22 | Wings v. Sun -7 | 68-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas. |
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05-24-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Sky | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss. |
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05-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces -10 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here. |
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05-22-22 | Sky v. Mystics OVER 159.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
The Mystics get back Elena Delle Donne, their leading scorer, for this game. That's huge both for Washington and for the total. The Mystics won't have injured guard Alysha Clark, though. That's another plus for the Over because she's an excellent defensive player. These are two of the top-five scoring teams in the WNBA. So I see this total as being short.
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05-21-22 | Lynx +5 v. Wings | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
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05-20-22 | Fever +14 v. Sun | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage. |
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05-19-22 | Lynx +11 v. Aces | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
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05-11-22 | Storm -4.5 v. Mercury | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix. |
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05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
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05-08-22 | Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams. |
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10-17-21 | Mercury v. Sky -4 | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
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10-15-21 | Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167 | Top | 50-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll.
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10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
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10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
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10-06-21 | Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season.
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10-03-21 | Sun -3.5 v. Sky | 83-86 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Connecticut is the top defensive team in the WNBA. I want the Sun's big-game experience and pedigree going for me today. The Sun tied the series at 1-1 apiece by defeating Chicago, 79-68, at home this past Thursday. Alyssa Thomas was a key, playing in just her fourth game since tearing her Achilles in January. Connecticut won that game by 11 points despite only getting four points from Jonquel Jones, who is due for a bigger performance. That was 15 points below Jones' season average. The Sky has failed to cover in 17 of their last 22 home games. |
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09-23-21 | Liberty v. Mercury -9 | 82-83 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
The Liberty are one of the worst teams in WNBA history to make the playoffs at 12-20. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games. The Mercury should have no trouble here unless the Liberty hits a high percentage of their 3-point shots. I'm banking against that. New York relies on the shooting of Betnijah Laney and she's having a terrible month averaging only 9.8 points on 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Phoenix should dominate inside with Britteny Griner, who has been tremendous following the Olympic break. Thanks to Griner, the Mercury has a huge size advantage on New York. The Liberty has just one player taller than 6-foot-2. The Liberty has failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. It's a plus if Diana Taurasi is able to play. But the Mercury won't need her against this opponent having gone 13-4 versus foes with a losing record.
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09-17-21 | Mercury -2.5 v. Storm | 85-94 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
The Mercury have been sizzling winning 10 of their last 11. The Storm, on the other hand, are just 4-6 following the Olympic break. Seattle has yet to regain its early season momentum. The Storm are not the same team that went 16-5 going into break. The Storm also are going to be without superstar Breanna Stewart, who has a foot injury. Minus Stewart, the Storm were hammered by the Sparks, 81-53, in their last game.
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09-15-21 | Liberty +13.5 v. Sun | 69-98 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Connecticut has the best record in the WNBA. The Sun are going to be top-seeded in the playoffs. So this game means very little to them. Not so with New York. The Liberty are battling for the final playoff spot with the Mystics and Sparks. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming from the LIberty. New York has talent with Betnijah Laney and Natasha Howard, who can keep the Sun from dominating inside. Sabrina Ionescu is overdue to step up, too, for the LIberty. The Sun, on the other hand, could be reducing the minutes of their starters as they prepare for the playoffs and much more important games.
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09-14-21 | Fever v. Dream -140 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Dream have covered seven of the last nine in this series. I see that pattern continuing here. Atlanta has been idle since Friday. The Fever, though, will be playing for the third time in five days. They've had two straight games against Minnesota, a physical team. The Dream has covered four of its last five games. |
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09-13-21 | Wings v. Aces -10.5 | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
It's hard for me to trust Bill Laimbeer, but I'm going to do it here. The Aces are off a highly impressive victory against the Lynx and can come very close to clinching a double bye into the WNBA semifinals with a victory here. This is their last home game. They conclude their regular season with a pair of road contests. So there is a major emphasis for them to play well here. The Wings just nipped the Liberty by one point at home two days ago. This is a very quick turnaround game for them as this is a day game with an early West Coast start. Dallas has failed to cover in its last five games.
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09-10-21 | Dream v. Mystics OVER 156 | 74-82 | Push | 0 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
These two teams rank among the bottom three in defense. The Dream allow 85 points a game, while the Mystics are close to that giving up 84.2 points per contest. Atlanta is 1-12 in its last 13 games. Washington has lost eight of its last 10. This is a winnable game for either team so I'm expecting a loosely played contest between a couple of disappointing teams. The Over has cashed seven of the past nine times the teams have met.
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09-09-21 | Sun v. Sparks +10 | 75-57 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a flat spot for Connecticut. The Sun just rolled over Dallas two days ago on the road. Now they fly into LA before taking on the Mercury in Phoenix on Saturday in a much tougher game. The Sparks have the worst record in the Western Conference. They are dangerous as home 'dogs, though, covering 11 of the past 15 times in that capacity. LA also has had ample rest and game preparation having been idle for the last week. The Sparks have won their past three home games.
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09-08-21 | Lynx +4 v. Aces | 81-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Aces are a very good WNBA team. However, they don't match up well to Minnesota, which has won five in a row going 4-0-1 ATS. The Lynx like to pay a physical, half-court game. That's not Las Vegas' style. The Lynx are one of the few teams that can match the Aces inside with Sylvia Fowles. The Aces will be minus their All-Star center Liz Cambage. She's dealing with COVID-19 protocols. The Aces still could be without Dearica Hamby, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. The Lynx are well-coached, too. I'm not a fan of Aces coach Bill Laimbeer. The teams have met twice this season and the Lynx are 2-0.
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08-31-21 | Liberty v. Lynx -9 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The Liberty is at low ebb with four straight losses and non-covers - all at home. Now New York takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 15. The Lynx defeated the Liberty, 88-78, at home when New York last was on the road, which was 16 days ago. I'm expecting another double-digit victory from the Lynx against the Liberty. Minnesota has covered its last four homes and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against New York. The Liberty have lost seven of their past eight games and have been bad in this role going 9-20 ATS as a road 'dog.
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08-26-21 | Wings v. Mystics -3 | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Washington is showing signs of gelling with Elena Delle Donne back in the lineup going 2-0 ATS. It's not just Delle Donne's outstanding talent, but also the confidence level and intangibles she brings that makes the Mystics much better. |
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08-26-21 | Aces -12 v. Dream | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
I see the Aces bouncing back after a bad loss to the Sun two days ago when they scored a season-low 62 points. The Aces have too much offense for the defensively-challenged Dream especially with Atlanta not nearly at full strength. |
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08-26-21 | Aces v. Dream OVER 166.5 | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Las Vegas buried the Dream, 118-95, when the teams last met on July 4. The Aces still maintain the top offensive rating in the WNBA despite managing only 62 points against the Sun in their last game. Atlanta is totally different than the Sun. The Dream rank last in the league defensively giving up an average of 108.8 points per 100 possessions. They don't have the defenders to bother A'ja Wilson and Liz Cambage. |
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07-10-21 | Mystics v. Sky -8.5 | 89-85 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Sky is the far healthier team and has been playing well. The Mystics aren't ready to make a move yet until the season resumes following a month-long Olympic break when they can regroup and get their starts back. Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games. The Sky rank second in scoring during this span averaging 87.5 points. They are better than their overall record because of a slow start and not having Candace Parker earlier in the season due to injury. |
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07-09-21 | Storm -6.5 v. Mercury | 77-85 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Seattle has won eight of its nine road games. I trust the Storm to cover this road number. Going back the past several seasons, the Storm have covered 25 of the last 35 times they've been road chalk. The Storm draw the Mercury after they just upset the Aces on the road two days ago in overtime. I don't think the Mercury has the maturity to avoid a letdown and the Storm are just the team to take advantage. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Storm have covered in five of their last six visits to Phoenix. |
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07-09-21 | Liberty v. Fever OVER 161.5 | 69-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The Liberty have been playing well averaging 87.7 points during their last four games. But they have surrendered at least 78 points in five of their last six games. The Fever should be pumped after upsetting the Sun as a 15-point 'dog in their last game. That was just their second win of the season. Prior to holding the Sun to just 67 points, the Fever had given up at least 82 points in 11 of their last 12 games. The Under has cashed just twice during the past eight meetings between the two teams.
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07-07-21 | Mercury v. Aces OVER 171.5 | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring at 91.8 points per game and in field goal percentage. The Aces have reached at least 90 points in six of their last seven games. Phoenix just surrendered 99 points at home to the Lynx, a middle-of-the-pack scoring team, during its last game. The Over has cashed during six of the past seven meetings between the two teams. |
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07-07-21 | Mercury v. Aces -8.5 | 99-90 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
I have to roll with the Aces, who are 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Mercury has some chemistry issues and can't keep up on the boards against the Aces. Phoenix was outrebounded by 15 boards in a 31-point blowout home loss to the Lynx in its last game four days ago. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in rebounds per game at 38.3. Liz Cambage and A'Ja Wilson are combining to average nearly 18 rebounds per game for Las Vegas. |
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07-05-21 | Wings -3.5 v. Liberty | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
New York defeated Dallas earlier this season, 88-81. There's one huge difference now in the rematch: The Liberty is minus Natasha Howard, who is injured. She's the Liberty's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. The Liberty is 4-8 ATS without her. I consider the Wings to be the better team even though the team's are each 9-9. Dallas has covered six of the last eight in this series and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road contests. |
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07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces -15.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Atlanta has the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Dream also is missing star player Tiffany Hayes. The timing isn't good either for the Dream. Las Vegas is coming off a poor performance in a 66-58 win this past Friday on the road against the Sparks. Las Vegas failed to cover a 15-point spread. Only once this season have the Aces failed to cover two straight games. A'Ja Wilson and Liz Cambage should dominate inside for the Aces. The Aces also have the perimeter shooting to take advantage of the Dream's WNBA-worst defensive field percentage defense. |
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07-02-21 | Aces -14 v. Sparks | 66-58 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
LA just hosted Las Vegas two days ago and it was no contest. The Aces buried the Sparks, 99-75. LA was minus three of its top six players, including its best player, Nneka Ogwumike. She's out for this game, too, along with her sister, Chiney. Kristi Toliver, who's second in assists for LA, may not play again either. The Sparks are not well-coached and lack the firepower to hang with the Aces, the top-scoring team in the WNBA. The Aces like to put on a show when playing in LA. There were a number of NBA stars at Wednesday's game, including LeBron James and Damian Lillard. The Aces have the motivation and overwhelming talent edge to produce another blowout. |
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06-30-21 | Aces v. Sparks +12.5 | 99-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
This is too many points for Las Vegas to be giving up on the road and in a letdown spot. The Aces are coming off a highly-satisfying 95-92 overtime win at home against the Storm. Las Vegas is 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. The last time the Aces played on the road they were upset by the Lynx last Friday. This also is the most points the Aces have laid on the road all season. |
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06-27-21 | Storm v. Aces -2 | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the WNBA and I like the home spot for the Aces and how they buried the Storm during their last meeting, 96-80, on the road. Las Vegas may have got caught looking ahead to this matchup as its five-game win streak was snapped, 90-89, in overtime at Minnesota this past Friday. The Aces are 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Seattle hasn't played in five days. So the Storm could be rusty. |
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06-25-21 | Aces v. Lynx +7 | 89-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm expecting the Aces to be rusty having not played for eight days. They are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more day's rest. Las Vega also could be mentally flat following the news that several of its player were selected to play in the Olympics. So the Aces could have trouble focusing while also dealing with overconfidence. |
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06-24-21 | Mystics v. Sparks +4 | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Sparks have been up and down this season. But they are in a good spot here catching the Mystics off a stunning road victory against the Storm two days ago. Washing was 13 1/2-point 'dogs in that game while missing a number of players, including superstar Elena Delle Donne. The Mystics are in a letdown spot here and still could be missing Delle Donne along with four other contributors. This is an important game fo the Sparks. Their next game is at Phoenix followed by four games versus the Aces and Storm. So LA can't afford to take a home loss here. LA has been strong in this role covering eight of the last 10 times as a home 'dog.
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05-22-21 | Storm -7 v. Wings | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The Wings have played one game all season and that was eight days ago. Allisha Gray led Dallas with 23 points when the Wings rolled past the Sparks. But Gray won't be available to play here because she's training to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team. Seattle is the defending WNBA champion with lots of star power. The Wings are very inexperienced and having this much time off between games is a real negative. The Wings won't have much of a home-court advantage with a reduced-capacity crowd limit of 1,500. Dallas is 1-7 ATS the past eight times as a home 'dog. Seattle has covered seven of the last eight times versus the Wings.
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05-22-21 | Storm v. Wings UNDER 169 | 100-97 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Dallas is going to be very rusty. The Wings have played only one game this season - and that was back on May 14. The Wings crushed the Sparks, 94-71, led by 23 points from Allisha Gray. The Storm could be the best team in the league and the Wings won't have Gray, who is trying to qualify for the Olympics and is not with the team. The Storm are breaking in some new faces. They could use this game to reduce the minutes of their stars especially with a bigger game on deck at home against Connecticut. |
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10-06-20 | Aces +8.5 v. Storm | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
Down 0-2 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series, Las Vegas is in a must-win spot. Can the Aces remain alive? I don't know. I do know this is the most points they've gotten all season and I'm going to back them at this high number. Seattle has defeated Las Vegas by 13 points in each of the first two games. The Storm accomplished this by shooting 50 and 57 percent, respectively, from the floor. Las Vegas is a top-three defensive team. Seattle shot 47 percent from the field in the regular season. So I think the Storm's shooting percentage is coming down. The Aces outscored Seattle, 46-44, in the paint during Sunday's Game 2. The Storm, though, got to shoot 10 more free throws than Las Vegas. Maybe the free throw disparity won't be so great for this matchup especially after Aces coach Bill Laimbeer griped about it. Seattle is much deeper than Las Vegas. The Aces have had two games now to figure out they need to play at a slow pace and look to score inside instead of trying to trade baskets at a fast pace against Seattle. The Aces have league MVP A'ja Wilson. Even Laimbeer, who I consider a mediocre coach at best, should be able to figure that out. Who knows, maybe then the Aces could get Breanna Stewart in foul trouble. The Aces are 7-1 ATS following a loss and 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times playing on one day's rest.
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10-02-20 | Storm -5 v. Aces | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 37 h 6 m | Show | |
These were the two best teams in the WNBA this season so it's only fitting they meet in the championship series. But I believe Seattle has more going. The Storm have far more championship series experience than the Aces. Most of their players were on Seattle's 2018 WNBA championship squad. Las Vegas doesn't have that big-game pedigree. Seattle looked great in its last two games in sweeping its semifinal series against Minnesota that concluded this past Sunday. Las Vegas, on the other hand, had a full five-game grind-out semifinal series against Connecticut that wasn't decided until this past Tuesday with the Aces nipping the Sun, 66-63. The Aces trailed 2-1 in that series. The Aces suffered a key injury during that semifinal series losing Sixth Woman of the Year award winner Dearica Hamby with a knee injury. She's one of Las Vegas' top defenders. The Aces can only beat Seattle, the league's No. 2 scoring team, by playing outstanding defense. Seattle bench player Sami Whitcomb left the bubble so she's out of the series, too. But Hamby's loss is much more severe for Las Vegas. The Aces received no points from their bench in their last game against the Sun. Their three reserves combined to produce zero points and one assist while committing six turnovers and five fouls in a combined 24 minutes. Hamby averaged 25 minutes in the playoffs with a season average of 13 points and seven rebounds per game. The Storm have covered 23 of the last 34 times they've been favored. I believe they are the better team - as does the linemaker - and the situation is favorable to them. |
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09-29-20 | Sun +4 v. Aces | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
I didn't like Bill Laimbeer as a player and I don't like him as a coach. Las Vegas may have better talent than Connecticut. The Aces have the league's MVP, A'ja Wilson. But I don't trust Laimbeer, nor the Aces, to win this deciding Game 5 of this WNBA semifinal. The Aces had to go all out this past Sunday to win Game 4 and force this deciding matchup. Connecticut didn't play a good game and Angel McCoughtry had the game of her life for Las Vegas shooting 13-for-22 from the floor for 29 points. I expect the Sun to play much better and don't believe McCoughtry can duplicate her Game 4 performance. She averaged 14.4 points during the regular season. Connecticut has covered eight of the last nine times following a loss. Las Vegas had all but one of its starters play more than 33 minutes on Sunday. Wilson played the entire game except for the final 26 seconds. The Aces had a strong bench during the regular season, but that's been considerably weakened without injured two-time Sixth Woman of the Year Dearica Hamby.
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