I hold no doubt that come the playoffs, the two-time defending champion Aces will be right back as a formidable force, probably the team to beat again.

But the Aces are not at that stage yet. Connecticut and New York are the two best teams in the WNBA right now and Connecticut has the best record at 13-1. The Sun are 5-0 on the road.

Las Vegas should not be this high of a favorite against the Sun. The Aces will be fortunate to win the game straight-up. The Aces are 7-6, including 4-4 at home with home losses to the Mercury, Storm, Lynx and Liberty.

The Aces will get rolling when star point guard Chelsea Gray returns to top form. Gray made her season debut this past Wednesday helping spark the Aces to a 94-83 home win against the Storm. That was a revenge spot for the Aces and the team was pumped to finally get Gray back from her foot injury.

Gray played 15:30. She scored only one point while attempting only two shots. Gray averaged 15.2 points last year. Her minutes likely will go up in this game, but there's plenty of rust. So the timing isn't that good for the Aces to draw this elite opponent right now.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the league, holding opponents to 70.7 points per game. The Aces have yet to get their defense straightened out allowing 83 or more points during their last five games.

Before going into the statistics, there are two things to take immediate notice of in this Dallas-Chicago matchup.

First, an extreme early start - 9 a.m. West Coast time and 11 a.m. local Chicago time. That's a plus for the Under with the teams not used to playing so early on a weekday.

The second takeaway is the multiple injuries on the Wings. Arike Ogunbowale missed Dallas' last game and is questionable for this one with a sore Achilles. Natasha Howard hasn't played since the opening game and she's doubtful here due to a foot injury. Maddy Siegrist is out with a broken finger. Those are the Wings' top three scorers. Ogunbowale is the Wings' go-to player. She's second in the WNBA in scoring at 24.9 points a game.

Now a look at the statistics. The Wings are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league. The Sky are better on defense than they are on offense. They rank ninth out of 12 teams in scoring, ninth in 3-point shooting percentage, 10th in field goal percentage and last in free throw percentage.

The Liberty-Mercury matchup isn't going to lack star power. Maybe that's why the oddsmaker has set the total too high.

New York has superstars Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. But what's overlooked is the Liberty's defense. They give up the third-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. New York has held its past eight opponents to an average of 75.7 points a game.

The Mercury have big names, too - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and underrated Kahleah Cooper, their best offensive player. Phoenix, though, has improved its porous defense of a year ago thanks to its first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts, who earned a defensive reputation as an assistant coach in the NBA. Tibbetts was an excellent hire.

Phoenix has held five of its last six foes to 80 points or fewer in regulation. The Mercury gave up 78 points to the Storm in their last game, which was five points below Seattle's fourth-highest ranked scoring average.  

New York point guard Courtney Vandersloot is expected to miss the game due to personal reasons. She's No. 2 on the Liberty in assists. Kayla Thornton is likely to pick up Vandersloot's minutes. Thornton is a defensive-oriented player.

Both the Storm and Mercury are improved teams this season. Seattle, though, has the higher ceiling with long-time Sparks star Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith joining the Storm this season to go with holdovers Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer last year, and Ezi Magbegor, one of the better centers in the WNBA.

After a slow start with Diggins-Smith getting the rust off from having sat out last season, the Storm are one of the hottest teams in the league winning eight of their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. Diggins-Smith is 15-for-29 shooting from the floor in her last two games.

Phoenix is much better than its 9-31 mark of last season. But the Mercury are not in Seattle's class. Phoenix is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Mercury rank fifth offensively, but are third-from-last defensively. They have allowed at least 80 points in 11 of their 13 games.

Pity the poor Mystics. They just got their best all-around player, guard Brittney Sykes, back in their last game against Atlanta. Sparked by Sykes' return, the Mystics beat the Dream, 87-68, for their first win of the season after 12 consecutive losses. However, Sykes suffered a foot injury in the victory and is out indefinitely again after missing eight games.

Shakira Austin is the Mystics' top low-post player and she's out, too, with a hip injury. I don't see the 1-12 Mystics beating the 4-7 Sky minus those two players and in a letdown spot after finally achieving their much-needed first victory of the year. Washington is 0-5 at home.

Chicago is the better team, especially with highly-touted rookie center Kamilla Cardosa back in shape and not limited anymore with a minutes restriction. Cardosa and Angel Reese give the Sky a big front-court edge. Reese is proving to be a tremendous talent in her rookie season with four straight double-doubles. She had a season-high 20 points and 10 rebounds in Chicago's last game, an 83-75 loss to Connecticut, the best team in the WNBA with an 11-1 record. Now the Sky are going from being competitive against the best team to playing the worst team.

The Sky and Mystics met in Washington just eight days ago. The Sky shot just 38 percent from the floor and made only 1-of-14 shots from 3-point range. Yet the Sky still beat the Mystics, 79-71.

The excitement Caitlin Clark brings to Indiana can't offset that the Fever isn't very good. They are poorly coached, have the worst defense in the WNBA and rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring despite having Clark.

I don't see the Fever staying within single digits of Connecticut, which is 9-1.

The Sun aren't going to lack motivation playing the 3-9 Fever at home having suffered their first loss of the season. That came to the Liberty, 82-75, two days ago at home.

Connecticut should have plenty of energy to go with motivation. This only is the Sun's second game in six days. Before losing to the Liberty, the Sun had blowout victories in three of their previous four games defeating Phoenix by 23 points, Atlanta by 19 points and Washington by 17 points.

The Fever were just barely able to get past the 0-12 Mystics in their last game, winning by only two points. Before that, the Fever had lost by a whopping 36 points to the Liberty.

This is the third meeting between the two teams. The Sun buried the Fever by 21 points at home and beat them by four points at Indiana.

The Sun are the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. They have far more depth than the Fever. Alyssa Thomas is one of the few players in the league better than Clark.

The Mystics knew they would be in for a long season when their superstar, Elena Delle Donne, decided not to play this season. But it's been worse than even the lowest expectations as Washington is the lone winless team in the WNBA with a 0-10 record.

Washington was competitive in some of its early games this season. However, the Mystics have lost their past three games by an average of 12 points. Morale is low and Washington has been without its best frontcourt player, center Shakira Austin, and top all-around guard, Brittney Sykes. Austin is questionable with a hip injury while Sykes continues to be sidelined by an ankle injury.

The key question here is can the Fever, which is 2-9, beat the Mystics on the road? I am not a fan of Indiana coach Christie Sides. But the Fever has the two best players on the court in Caitlin Clark and center Aliyah Boston. The Fever finally gets a situational break, too, in this matchup.

Indiana has been idle since Sunday. The Fever had the most arduous schedule in the league playing six games in 10 days and four in six days. They still managed to beat the Sparks on the road and Sky at home. But they wore down in their last game in a blowout loss to the Liberty. That was five days ago.

Now the well-rested Fever catch the Mystics playing for the third time in four days and without rest following their 79-71 home loss to the Sky Thursday night.

Washington obviously isn't going to do anything this season. The Fever, though, are in must-win mode. Clark has made them the showcase team in the league. The league wants them to do well. Clark could be in line to expect more calls than she has been getting following extensive social media scrutiny about opponents taking cheap shots against her.

I also like Caitlin Clark to go Over 17 1/2 points on a scoring prop. The Mystics are below average defensively and Clark finally has had ample rest and is stepping down in class.

The Aces miss star player Chelsea Gray, who remains sidelined with a leg injury. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in points per game, but its scoring has been down the past couple of games. The Aces are averaging 77 points in their last two games, down from their season average of 86.5 points.

Dallas is fifth in the league in scoring. But the Wings' scoring also has dropped the last two games. They are averaging 74 points in their past two games, down from their season average of 82.6 points. This is their first home game since May 18.

Another takeaway from this game is being a Commissioner's Cup matchup. This is an in-season tournament where the final two teams compete for a $500,000 prize hosted on June 25 by the team with the best record in the tournament. So the intensity should be raised.

But most important is the league's regular orange and white ball won't be used during tournament games. Instead a new ball with different colors is being debuted. Players aren't happy about that. This could turn out to be a major plus for the Under because of the unfamiliarity.

Considering the Sun are the WNBA's lone unbeaten team at 8-0 and the Mystics have the worst record in the league at 0-8, this large point speed seems justified on the surface. 

But it's not really. 

Connecticut has padded its record against lower-tier opponents. The Sun have yet to play the Aces or the Liberty, who they will host in their next game. The toughest team the Sun have played is the Lynx. Connecticut won that game in overtime by one point. 

Despite their easy schedule, the Sun haven't dominated in most of their victories with five of their past seven wins coming by seven or fewer points. This includes beating the Wings by two points, Fever by four points and Sky by four points. Connecticut has a losing ATS mark. 

Washington and Connecticut have met this season with the Sun winning, 84-77, failing to cover as an 8-point home favorite.

 
The Mystics are 0-8, but 4-3-1 ATS. They've lost by more than 11 points only once. 

Washington has been idle since Friday, while the Sun enter this matchup fat and happy after a blowout road victory against Atlanta this past Sunday. 

The Sun have averaged just 71 points per game during their last three games. The Mystics are the lowest-scoring team in the league, but still average 74.4 points a game.

There is just one undefeated team in the WNBA - and it's not the two-time defending champion Aces or the Liberty. It's 7-0 Connecticut.

The Sun put that mark on the line against Atlanta. I see Connecticut covering a short road number here. The Dream has played an easy schedule and are in a letdown spot following a home upset of the Aces, 78-74, this past Friday. The Aces had an off-shooting night making only 36 percent of their shots from the floor.

Before knocking off the Aces, the Dream had played just one tough team this season. That was Minnesota and the Dream lost to the Lynx, 92-79, at home.

Connecticut is not a good matchup for Atlanta, especially given the letdown spot. The Sun are the slowest tempo team in the league. Atlanta prefers to run-and-gun. Connecticut won three of the four meetings last season with the winning margin being by an average of 10.3 points.

Chicago is in rebuilding mode. But the Sky have excellent team chemistry and have been playing well going 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last four games with the victories coming on the road against the Liberty and Wings - two teams better than the Sparks.

I rank the Sky above the Sparks. The situation sets up better, too, for Chicago.

Los Angeles is in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is the Sparks' second straight road game. They opened their road swing with an upset victory against Indiana this past Tuesday.

The Sparks rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring and second-to-last in free throw percentage. They have a short bench and are down guard Layshia Clarendon, who remains sidelined with a head injury.

I'm looking for a big performance from the Fever as they return home following three consecutive road games. Indiana has played five tough games out of seven - Liberty twice, Sun twice and Aces once - and now get to step way down in class.

The rebuilding Sparks are the worst team in the Western Conference. Los Angeles is 1-4. Its lone victory was at home against the 0-6 Mystics by two points. If the Mystics aren't the worst team in the WNBA than the Sparks are.

This is only the Sparks' second road game of the season. Their only other away game was back on May 18. It was a short one, just an hour flight to Las Vegas.

Indiana's 1-6 record is deceiving because of the tough schedule it has played. The Fever can expect great support as this is only their third home game and first since May 20. The Fever has played the most games in the league. But they were able to get two full days of rest having last played this past Saturday.

The Fever's lone victory came against the Sparks, 78-73, this past Friday at Los Angeles. A record Sparks crowd of 19,103 turned out for the game.

It's not just Caitlin Clark for the Fever. Indiana center Temi Fagbenle has emerged, giving the Fever another low-post presence and energetic force to go with Aliyah Boston, one of the better inside players in the league. Boston and Fagbenle combined to make 14-of-26 shots from the floor against the Sparks.

Los Angeles is not a deep team relying mostly on a six-player rotation. The Sparks will be without veteran guard Layshia Clarendon, one of those six rotation players. She's out with a head injury.

The Lynx are an early-success story in the WNBA tied for first in the Western Conference with a 3-1 record. They are much-improved from last year's 19-21 team. 

But the schedule-maker didn't do Minnesota any favors with this matchup. 

Not only are the Lynx in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 84-67, as a 6 1/2-point home 'dog on Saturday, but they are in action for the third time in four days and second in two days. It's the third straight different venue, too, for Minnesota. 

The Dream, on the other hand, hasn't played since Tuesday when they defeated the Wings by five points at home. Atlanta is mediocre, but has a bunch of good scorers. The Dream rank fourth in the league in scoring and first in 3-point accuracy. 

Given Atlanta's scoring prowess and the bad situational spot the Lynx are in, I see the Dream covering this number. 

Indiana's Caitlin Clark gets top billing, but the best player on the court in this matchup is Los Angeles' Dearica Hamby. Given heavy playing minutes for the first time in her 10-year WNBA career, Hamby is off to a blazing start averaging 22 points a game - which is tied for sixth-best in the league - and leading the WNBA in rebounding.

Sparked by Hamby's 59 percent shooting percentage, Los Angeles ranks second in the league in field goal percentage and third in 3-point accuracy. The Sparks are going against the worst defense in the league as the Fever surrenders an WNBA-worst 91.6 points a game.

However, the 0-5 Fever's offense has been picking up averaging 82.3 points in their past three games. Rookie Clark and her new teammates are getting more accustomed to playing together. This will be Indiana's league-high sixth game of the season. The Fever scored 83 points on Seattle despite making only 6-of-22 3-point field goal attempts in their last game this past Wednesday. Clark was just 2-of-8 from beyond the arc.

Look for the Fever to shoot a higher percentage as the Sparks are a below average defense. LA ranks second-to-last in 3-point defense, is 10th in defensive field goal percentage and surrenders the fourth-most points per game. This has the makings of a break-out game for Clark.

Phoenix is much improved from its disastrous 9-31 season of a year ago. The Mercury upgraded both their roster and coaching staff. So it wasn't a total shock Phoenix upset defending WNBA champion Las Vegas, 98-88, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Tuesday night.

Washington, on the other hand, is 0-4 and in for a long season with its superstar, Elena Delle Donne, choosing not to play this season. Brittney Sykes, the Mystics' best all-around guard, is out with an ankle injury.

So why get involved with the Mystics on the road against the Mercury here?

Because there's more than meets the eye.

The Mercury returns to Phoenix fat and happy after holding off the Aces, who railed from 15 points down with 5 1/2 minutes to pull within two points. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that didn't do much winning last year and remains without its top rim protector and rebounder, injured Brittney Griner.

The Mercury made an unbelievable 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range in upsetting the Aces. Highly unlikely they repeat that shooting performance against Washington, which ranks No. 2 in the league in 3-point defense.

The Mystics have yet to win, but they were ahead in the fourth quarter in three of their four games. This includes leading the Liberty by eight points with 9:25 left and the Sun by seven points with 9:20 to play. Those are two of the three best teams in the league. Washington also led Seattle in the fourth quarter and was nip-and-tuck in a 70-68 road loss to Los Angeles this past Tuesday.

The Dream has had this game circled ever since Dallas knocked them out of the playoffs last season, 2-0, with both of the Wings' victories coming at home.

Now Atlanta gets Dallas at home. It's the Dream's first home game of the season and the Wings' first road contest.

The Dream are at full strength. Dallas is not. The Wings are without starting guard Jaelyn Brown (broken nose) and star forward Natasha Howard (broken foot).

The Wings hosted rebuilding Chicago for their first two games. Dallas was favored in each game, but could only manage a split against one of the lower-tier teams in the league.

Atlanta beat the Sparks by 11 in Los Angeles, but lost as a short road favorite to the much-improved Mercury.

The Dream have too much firepower for the Wings, which heavily rely on Arkie Ogunbowale for the bulk of their scoring. Ogunbowale is a prolific scorer, but is only shooting 37.3 percent from the floor.

Atlanta is No. 1 in the WNBA in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage. The Dream rank No. 3 in scoring, averaging 88.5 points per game. Rhyne Howard and Alish Gray give the Dream one of the top scoring backcourt tandems in the league. Veteran Tina Charles still remains highly effective averaging 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. Charles could be in line for a big game with Howard out.

It's not often you get a huge early-season situational edge in the WNBA. But the Liberty have one here hosting the Storm.

The Liberty last played on Friday at home. They've had the weekend to rest and hone their early-season performance, which includes two victories by an average of 22.5 points against the Fever and Caitlin Clark.

The Liberty won't play again for three days. So they should have their full focus for this matchup.

The Storm, however, will be playing their third road game in four days. They lost in overtime to Minnesota this past Friday after a gallant comeback forced overtime and then had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat the Mystics on Sunday with four of their starters logging major minutes.

Seattle went 11-29 last year. That was the second-worst mark in the WNBA. The Storm, though, should be much improved this season with the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike joining Jewell Loyd, who led the league in scoring last season.

But it's going to take time for the Storm to jell, which hasn't happened yet. The Storm did manage to beat the Mystics, one of the worst teams in the league, at Washington on Sunday. Prior to that, though, Seattle lost twice to Minnesota, once at home and in overtime on the road, as favorites in each game.

Now the Storm is stepping way up in class as 3-0 New York could be the best team in the WNBA right now with Las Vegas missing injured Chelsea Gray.

Loyd and Diggins-Smith are a combined 32-of-112 shooting from the floor this season for 28.5 percent. Seattle can't beat even an average team like Minnesota if those two key scorers are cold like that. Diggins-Smith is rusty from having missed last year.

Washington is a defensive-minded team that already is battle-tested against the Sun and Liberty, two teams better than the Storm.

Seattle has upgraded its attack. However, it's taking time for the Storm to jell. Jewell Loyd, the league's leading scorer last year and key to Seattle's offense, is off to a terrible shooting start. She's just 7-of-40 in the Storm's first two games, losses to the Lynx. Skylar Diggins-Smith is off to a slow start, too, shooting just 12-of-35 from the floor.

Washington isn't likely to have point guard Brittney Sykes. She hurt her ankle in Washington's last game two days ago. Sykes is a huge key to the Mystics' attack.

The season isn't even two games old for the Wings and already they have serious injury concerns. All-Star Satou Sabally is out recovering from a shoulder injury. Starting guard Jaelyn Brown is out with a broken nose and now it's been discovered that Natasha Howard will miss three-to-six weeks after breaking her foot in Dallas', 87-79, opening game win against Chicago this past Wednesday.

Howard is arguably one of the 25 best players in the league.

However, I can't get behind the rebuilding Sky in this rematch. But I can get involved with the Under considering the total is much higher than the closing 162 it was for Wednesday's game.

The teams did not shoot well in that first game.  The Sky, though, is more of a defensive team having traded some of their scorers. The Wings have to rely even more on ball hog Arike Ogunbowale with Howard out.

The Sky are dealing with injuries themselves along with plenty of roster movement and a first-year coach in Teresa Weatherspoon. It's going to take them time to jell, especially on the offensive side.

Don't look for the Storm to be so inept scoring-wise as they were during an opening-night, 83-70, home loss to the Lynx this past Tuesday. Now we have a quick rematch. Expect more scoring.

The revamped Storm added Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike to go with Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. That's a lot of offense. The Storm should do much better in the scoring column now that they've played a game.

Seattle shot 37.2 percent from the floor, made only one of nine 3-pointers and committed 17 turnovers in the loss to Minnesota. Loyd, who led the WNBA in scoring last year at 24.7 points, scored just 10 points while missing 16 of 19 shots from the floor.

The Storm know the Lynx's defense better now. Look for them to come out aggressive and not overthink things, like they did in the opener.

Minnesota didn't have a good perimeter game either. The Lynx were just 7-of-24 from 3-point range and only got to the free throw line nine times. Yet they still scored 83 points because of the inside dominance of superstar Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith. The two combined to make 17 of 34 shots from the floor. Collier and Smith should continue to score in the paint while the Lynx's guards should do better from 3-point range.

I have no doubt that Caitlin Clark will be a star in the WNBA. But the league schedule makers didn't do Clark, nor the Fever, any breaks. Indiana opened with a 21-point road loss to Connecticut and now has to play the Liberty, who eliminated the Sun in the playoffs last season.

New York is the second-best team in the WNBA with designs of being the best. The Liberty will have five of the top seven players on the court in today's game. Breanna Stewart is one of the two best players in the league and Sabrina Ionescu ranks in the top 10 with Jonquel Jones not far behind.

The Liberty weren't sharp in their season-opener either, failing to cover an 11 1/2-point spread in an 85-80 win against Washington. I expect the prideful Liberty to play better here and they won't lack motivation going against Clark and all of the hype surrounding her.

New York went 4-0 against Indiana last season with an average winning margin of 13.2 points. Yes, the Fever will be much better than last season. But they aren't close to jelling yet as the team transitions into the Clark era.

Clark committed 10 turnovers against the Sun. She had 11 in two preseason games. There is going to be an adjustment period between Clark and her new teammates. They need more time. Drawing the powerful Liberty in just their second game of the season is a bad break.

Las Vegas is the two-time defending WNBA champions. Phoenix had the worst mark in the league at 9-31 last season. But this isn't the mismatch you might think.

But the Mercury's strongest off-season move was hiring Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbetts is well-respected having been an NBA assistant coach for 12 years with the Magic, Trail Blazers and Cavaliers.

The Aces still could be celebrating their second straight championship. They were honored at the White House last week. The Aces only got to play one preseason game and it wasn't against a WNBA club. They played the Puerto Rico national team at South Carolina. That's not an ideal way to get ready for the season where every team will be sky-high to upset the Aces.

This total would make sense - if it were last year when Phoenix had the worst defense in the WNBA.

But while the defending champion Aces stood pat this season after having the second-best defense in the league last year, Phoenix has made many upgrades to fix its defensive woes.

The biggest move for the Mercury was hiring respected NBA assistant coach Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbets has an excellent defensive reputation having coached for the Magic and Cavaliers. Tibbetts and his staff really stressed and emphasized defense during practice and preseason.

The Mercury have enhanced their backcourt defense with the addition of Natasha Cloud, a two-time all-defensive team selection.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Aces struggle offensively early in the season having had off-season distractions and playing just one exhibition game. That wasn't against a WNBA team either, but the Puerto Rican national team in South Carolina in a festive atmosphere welcoming A'ja Wilson back to her college.

Seattle has much more star power this season. But it's going to take a while for the Storm to gel. The Lynx have improved, too, and are not getting enough respect with this high of a line.

The Lynx have a superstar, Napheesa Collier, and have improved their bench and defense. Their backcourt is more experienced with the additions of veterans Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman.

I have a lot of respect for Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve. Look for the Lynx to stay within the number here.

It's only fitting that New York and Las Vegas meet in the WNBA Championship Series. Both are superpowers loaded with star power and clearly the two best teams in the WNBA.

Las Vegas was the best team during the first half of the season. But two things may have changed that.

The Aces lost starter and former league superstar Candace Parker to a severe ankle injury and the Liberty got better as the season progressed.

New York defeated the Aces in three of four meetings following the All-Star break when it was beginning to peak and Parker was out. Kiah Stokes replaced Parker. Stokes is a good rebounder and defender, but has no offensive game. Parker being out also taxes the Aces' limited depth.

The Liberty are the one opponent good enough to exploit this situation. The Liberty has a lineup full of scorers and rebounders, while Las Vegas is almost playing 4-on-5 when it has the ball because of Stokes' offensive limitations.  

Maybe the Aces still are the superior team. But I'll take this many points to find that out.

New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White.

Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points.

The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points.

So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits.

Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota.

The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series.

Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games.

Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense.

Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest.

The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest.

Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins.

The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77.

The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome.

Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season.

Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season.

Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham are both out with injuries. Those are Phoenix's second and third-best players.

Minnesota is 18-19 and looking to clinch a playoff spot.

The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games. 

Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days.

The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game. 

Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games.

Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games.

The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle.

Phoenix is averaging 68.6 points in its last five games, all of which have gone Under.

I see another Under here.

The Mercury has a cluster injury problem in the backcourt. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, the team's second and third-leading scorers, are each questionable. Taurasi has missed the last two games with a toe injury. Cunningham suffered a jaw injury in Phoenix's last game two days ago. The Mercury are 1-15 on the road. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs. So there's no urgency for Taurasi and Cunningham to play.

Also the Mercury are without Shey Peddy, a guard who was part of their rotation.

Phoenix does have 6-foot-9 inch Brittney Griner back in the lineup. Although Griner is the Mercury's leading scorer, her presence is a plus for the Under because Phoenix has to play at a slow, plodding pace to accommodate her low-post presence.

Atlanta should be in a defensive mood. The Dream have lost three in a row, including blowing a late lead in an 83-80 loss to lowly Indiana this past Sunday. This marks the Dream's third game in five days so I don't see them playing up-tempo.

A strong case can be made either way that Las Vegas or New York is the best team in the WNBA. No other team in the league comes close to matching these superpowers.

The teams have split their four games. This is the final regular-season matchup between them and the deck is stacked against Las Vegas.

The Aces are a tired team playing for the fourth time in seven days and 11th in 22 days. It's the Aces' fourth consecutive road games. This is a very heavy schedule especially for the WNBA. It's made worse for the Aces because they lack depth and have been going with a short rotation due to starter Candace Parker being out.

Las Vegas hasn't practiced, nor even taken a shootaround during its previous two games in order to save its legs. A blowout loss to Washington as a 10-point favorite two days ago shows just how vulnerable the Aces are right now because of the heavy fatigue factor.

It's the wrong time for the Aces to meet the Liberty, who are peaking winning 18 of their last 21 games.

Who's the hottest team in the WNBA? It's Los Angeles if you go by point spreads. The Sparks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with five straight outright victories.

The Sparks have gotten healthy and their lineup has stabilized because of it. That's been a key in their winning streak. They also have an excellent coach in Curt Miller.

Just two games ago, the Sparks upset the Aces, 78-72, in Las Vegas. The Dream just lost to the Aces, 112-100, at home this past Tuesday. Atlanta is regressing after showing signs of peaking going 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games.

The Dream aren't expected to have star guard Allisha Gray again. She missed Atlanta's game against the Aces due to an ankle injury. Also out for Atlanta is Nia Coffey, the Dream's third-leading rebounder and fifth-leading scorer.

Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York.

The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64.

New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games.

The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas.

New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday.

Chicago can't take a home loss here to the lowly 10-22 Storm. The Sky are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the season winding down.

The Sky are in stop-the-pain mode after a 79-73 home loss to Connecticut two days ago. Chicago was only 3 of 21 from 3-point range in that game.

The Sky should shoot much better against this much weaker defensive opponent. The Storm have the league's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, but are the worst-shooting team in the WNBA.

Both teams are playing for the third time in five days. Chicago, however, has been home for the past four days, while this is Seattle's third different venue in five days.

The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home.

Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest.

The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range.

The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread.

The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game.

Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces.

Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74.

That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high.

These teams just met two days ago in Las Vegas for the Commissioner's Cup, an honorary game that didn't count in the standings. I thought it would be a loose game between the league's two-highest scoring teams. So I went with the Over.

Wrong.

New York destroyed Las Vegas, 82-63. The game went Under by 33 points.

Live and learn. I'm confidently going Under in the rematch.

The Liberty have held the Aces to an average of 62 points - 32 points below the Aces' league-leading 94 points a game - in two games during the last 11 days.

It's more than just the Aces being cold from the floor and superstar center A'ja Wilson getting bottled up in the paint. The Liberty are exploiting the offensive inefficiency of Aces center Kiah Stokes, who has replaced injured Candace Parker. Stokes is strictly a defensive player. She has no offensive game. That allowed the Liberty to fully concentrate on Las Vegas' four other starters, including double-teams on Wilson.

The Aces' one weakness is lack of depth. The Liberty are perhaps the only team in the league that can exploit that. New York's bench outscored Las Vegas' reserves by 20 points in Tuesday's game.

The Liberty's 95.3 defensive rating during the last seven games is the second-best in the league.

The Aces have the best defensive rating in the WNBA. But Aces coach Becky Hammon wasn't pleased with her team's defense in Tuesday's loss.

Expect the Aces - in double revenge mode and after suffering their first home loss of the season - to come out highly motivated, playing strong defense. There should be a playoff intensity to this game, which translates to tough defense.

These are the two highest scoring teams in the league. New York averages 88.5 points. That scoring average goes up to 96 points if you count just the last three games. Las Vegas is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring at 94 points and also No. 1 in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage.

If the two teams just hit their scoring average the total easily goes Over.

I'm expecting the final score will go Over. These are the two superpowers of the league. This game will draw extra attention because it's the annual Commissioner's Cup. Players from the winning team earn $30,000 with the MVP getting an extra $5,000. These players don't make NBA-type salaries. That money is a big incentive for them. The pride of being named MVP for the game should spur the three superstars competing - A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu - into big scoring games.

And here's the kicker: The game does not count in the standings. So basically it's an exhibition, which should have an All-Star Game offensive-type flavor to it.

Both teams rank among the three-worst in the WNBA. Phoenix and Seattle have been playing better, though.

Phoenix has won two in a row. However, those victories were achieved at home. The Mercury are 1-13 on the road. They also are 7-18-1 ATS following a win.

Seattle is in rebuild mode, but gets tremendous home fan support. The Storm are 4-2 in their last six games. They have covered in five of their past seven games.

The Storm pulled out a 68-67 upset home victory in their last game, coming from 16 points down to beat Atlanta this past Thursday. That should give them momentum and confidence.

Seattle should also have confidence against this opponent having just defeated the Mercury in Phoenix eight days ago, 97-91.

Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. 
The Dream are a couple of tiers ahead of Seattle and should cover against the Storm. 

Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here. 
9
The Storm just played two days ago. They are close to being a one-person scoring show with Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's top scorer. Loyd averages 11 more points than the second-highest scoring Seattle player. Loyd had an off-shooting night and the Storm lost at home to the Sun by 12 points this past Tuesday.

Atlanta has been idle since dispatching Indiana by nine points at home this past Sunday. The Dream defeated the Storm, 85-75, in Atlanta when the teams last met on July 12 for the first time this season. Loyd didn't play in that game, but Williams did. 

I see this as a huge bounce back spot for Las Vegas. The Aces were held to a season-low in points by New York in their last game this past Sunday, losing 99-61. 

Despite that low scoring output, Las Vegas easily leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.1 points. Dallas is No. 3 in scoring at 86.2 points.

The Wings just surrendered 104 points twice in home losses to Chicago during their last two games. That was 23 points above the Sky's season scoring average. 

Both the Aces and Wings like to push pace. So I see an up-tempo matchup here. The Aces have gone Over in 14 of their last 19 road games. 

The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces.

I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago.

The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points.

The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points.

Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season.

The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games.

The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover.

LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game.

Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record.

The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago.

Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment.

The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings.

Seattle has the worst record in the WNBA at 6-20. But two of those victories came against Phoenix.

So the Mercury have double revenge being 0-2 versus the Storm. More important than that, though, is Phoenix is home and has momentum.

Phoenix is 1-13 on the road, but 6-6 at home. The Mercury played maybe their best game of the season this past Thursday at home upsetting Atlanta, 91-71, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. Diana Taurasi scored 42 points to become the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points.

The 41-year-old Taurasi is averaging 31.7 points in her last three games. She's been a big inspiration for the Mercury, who get back star center Brittney Griner.

The Storm have been playing better, but are off a deflating home loss to the Wings, 76-65, this past Wednesday. Phoenix has covered its past four home games.

These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number.

The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip.

Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup.

The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests.

Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates.

Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number:

No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row.

No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting.

No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta.

No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated.

Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay.

The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars.

Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker.

The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87.

Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries.

Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers.

They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out.

It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6.

The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota.

The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday.

Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding.

The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting.

The Lynx are going to have problems scoring against Connecticut, the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. Minnesota is without its superstar, Napheesa Collier. She's the fourth-leading scorer in the league at 21.8 points.

Minnesota is in action for the third time in five days. The Lynx are not going to push pace given their fatigue factor. They also play slower on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's last seven away contests.

Connecticut won't be taking Minnesota lightly knowing the Lynx just upset the Liberty in New York two days ago despite not having the injured Collier.

The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne.

But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss.

Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA.

The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday.

Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings.

Atlanta has gone Under the total in each of its last seven games. But I see this game going Over.

One reason for this is the caliber of competition. Against their last 10 opponents, the Dream have gone against a bottom-six offense nine times.

The last time the Dream met a top-five offense was a dozen games ago. That was against this opponent - the Liberty. New York scored a season-high 110 points in a 30-point road victory against Atlanta. There were a combined 190 points scored in that game.

The Liberty is the second-highest scoring team in the WNBA. They are averaging 92.7 points in their last four games. The Liberty is off a sloppy, narrow home win against a bad Seattle team this past Tuesday. So they should be in a high-scoring, motivated mood.

The Dream is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. They have three All-Stars who would especially like to shine playing in New York, the media capital. I don't expect the Dream to shy away. They won't slow tempo.

The Liberty have huge star power led by superstars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, who is coming off a 2-for-14 shooting performance against Seattle. Expect a much better shooting and scoring game for her. Atlanta ranks ninth in scoring defense.

The teams met early last month. Minnesota nipped the Mystics, 80-78. It was the fifth straight time in the series that the Under won.

I envision another Under today.

The Mystics continue to play short-handed without two-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne, streak-shooting Ariel Atkins and inside presence Shakira Austin. That's a lot of missing firepower.

Minnesota is averaging 73.5 points in its last five games. The Lynx are facing a Mystics defense that ranks in the top-three.

The pace should be slow.

Los Angeles is 0-8, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games. Yet the Sparks are favored against Indiana. What does that tell you?

It tells me that the Sparks are the correct side. 

I see the Sparks halting their losing streak here against the Fever, who have a worse overall record than Los Angeles and are 1-9 in their last 10 games.

The Sparks have played six of their past eight games on the road. They've been hard hit by injuries. But now the Sparks have gotten healthier. Both Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon are back for Los Angeles. Brown is the team's No. 2 scorer, while Clarendon is second on the team in assists. 

The Fever ranks with Seattle as having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up 86.2 points per game. Indiana has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to LA. 

On the surface, this looks like an easy winner for host Dallas. The Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, while Los Angeles has lost seven in a row.

But on closer examination, this is a dangerous spot for the Wings. It's a trap situation.

Dallas is riding high after upsetting the powerful Liberty, 99-88, in New York this past Wednesday. Now the Wings return home to face the Sparks in an obvious letdown spot. Dallas also is in a look-ahead spot. The Wings host Connecticut on Tuesday in a bigger game. That's also a revenge game for the Wings, who lost last month to the Sun in Connecticut.

The Sparks aren't a bad team. They've had the most injuries in the league. They were 7-7 until injuries started mounting up and they went on their losing streak. Now, however, the Sparks have gotten much healthier. Back in their lineup is Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon joining Nneka Ogwumike and Jordin Canada. Those are all solid players.

Los Angeles also is better-coached this season under Curt Miller, who took Connecticut to the WNBA finals last year.

The teams just met two days ago in Connecticut and the Sun won, 82-71. That's a combined 153 points.

I'm not expecting a high-scoring game either in this quick rematch. The teams obviously are familiar with each other plus this is a very early start time. Those are both pluses for the Under.

Connecticut is the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA. The Sun forced 23 Dream turnovers in Thursday's game. The Dream do like to play fast, but the Sun will counter that with a more deliberate style. The Dream has to be worried about committing so many turnovers again.

Natisha Hiedman had the best game of her WNBA career in that win against Atlanta scoring 24 points. She shot 8-of-11 from the floor while making six of seven 3-pointers. This came out of nowhere. Hiedman averages 8.4 points on the season. So I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance.

The Mystics have too many injuries to stay within double-digits of the Liberty.

Out for Washington is Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin and Kristi Toliver. Delle Donne is one of the best players in the league. Austin is the Mystics' top inside player and Atkins is a key backcourt scorer.

It's obvious the Mystics are not the same team without these players after they lost at home to the lowly Fever, 82-76, this past Wednesday.

New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.8 points. The Mystics are giving up an average of 88.3 points during their last eight games.

The Liberty are in bounce-back mode after a home upset loss to the Wings two days ago. That snapped the Liberty's four-game win streak. New York has not lost consecutive games this season. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS following a defeat. The Mystics are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing an above .500 opponent.

The Sparks and Lynx have met three times already this season. Minnesota has won each time. The victories have been by five, five and six points.

So why should this result be any different?

It shouldn't be.

The Sparks and Mystics are the two most banged-up teams in the WNBA. LA has lost and failed to cover in each of its last six games. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS the past four times playing LA.

The Sparks haven't been able to slow down the Lynx's star inside player, Napheesa Collier. She's averaging 25 points against the Sparks this season.

The scheduling spot also sets up well for Minnesota. This is the Lynx's second game following All-Star break. They started slow against Atlanta on the road this past Wednesday. But Minnesota played a lot better in the second half. The Lynx cut a 22-point Atlanta lead to one point in the fourth quarter before losing. The Lynx are 6-2 ATS following a loss.

The Lynx shouldn't have any rust. No so with the Sparks. They last played eight days ago.

The Mystics are a middle-tier WNBA team. The Fever are bottom-tier. The point spread is low, though, because the Mystics are extremely banged-up.

The key question is can the Mystics still beat Indiana at home despite missing their best player, forward Elena Delle Donne, along with guard Ariel Atkins and center Shakira Austin?

I say yes. The tradeoff on not having these three players is this low number. It's low enough where I can get involved on the money line just asking Washington to win.

The Fever were the worst team in the league last year. They showed early improvement going 5-7, but have not won since losing their last eight games. Indiana has injuries, too. Its second-leading scorer, NaLyssa Smith, is out as his Lexie Hull, which thins their guard rotation.

The Mystics have their top assists player in guard Natasha Cloud. She's more valuable than Atkins, a streaky shooter. Washington also upgraded its frontcourt recently acquiring promising Queen Egbo.

Washington is one of the better-coached teams in the league. The 11-8 Mystics have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've played on three or more days rest.

The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game. 

Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats. 

Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games. 

The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham. 

Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86.

Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter.

The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits.

Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league.

The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too.

Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm.

The Phoenix Mercury have been the biggest disappointment in the WNBA. But the Mercury also have talent and have played more competitively the past six games after a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue.

The Mercury are 3-3 ATS in their last six games. Three games ago they nearly upset New York - the second-best team in the WNBA next to Las Vegas - losing by four points as a 15-point ' road dog. Phoenix is coming off a 78-72 victory against Los Angeles this past Sunday.

The Mercury are better than what they were when the Aces buried them, 99-79, in Phoenix last month shortly before Nygaard was fired.

Phoenix doesn't have Las Vegas' star power. But the Mercury do have a top-five front-court player in Brittney Griner and 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi still remains feisty and above average.

The Mercury should go all-out since they won't play again for another week.

That's not the case for the Aces. Their situation is much different.

The Aces were fired-up after getting upset by Dallas this past Friday. They took their frustrations out on Minnesota this past Sunday winning, 113-89.

This marks Las Vegas' fourth game in seven days. The Aces play the Sparks in Los Angeles on Wednesday. This is a rivalry matchup. So it's doubtful if Aces coach Becky Hammon plays her starters big minutes if her team has a comfortable lead.

I believe the Mercury will keep this game close. But even if things start to get out of hand, the backdoor should stay open given the Aces' scheduling situation.

The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 92.6 points. They also are the top field goal percentage shooting team.

Minnesota has picked up its scoring lately. The Lynx have scored at least 86 points in four of their last five games. They are averaging 88.4 points in regulation during their last five games.

The Aces are motivated to pour on the points after suffering just their second loss of the season falling to Dallas two days ago.

I'm expecting Elena Delle Donne to return to the Mystics' lineup today. She had been out with an ankle injury. But Washington still is very much short-handed without injured Shakira Austin and Natasha Cloud not expected to play.

Connecticut is well-rested. This is just the Sun's second game since the start of the month.

The teams already have met twice and Connecticut won both games, 80-74 on the road and 88-81 at home.

The teams just met six days ago and there were only 147 points scored in New York's 81-66 road win.

I like the Under to get the money again.

Seattle is averaging 69.5 points in its last two games. The Storm not only are the worst-shooting team in the league, but they have committed 57 turnovers in their last three games. New York has a top-five defense.

Making it rough on the Storm is the early start, which is a morning game for them going by West Coast time.

As evidenced by the point spread, this has the makings of a blowout victory for the Liberty. New York doesn't have a deep scoring bench. So the Liberty's scoring could go down during the final period.

I'm not looking to fade the Aces very often. They clearly are the best team in the WNBA right now.

But this is the exception. The Aces are overpriced here. It wouldn't shock me if Dallas pulled the outright upset even being a double-digit home 'dog.

The teams just met this past Wednesday in Las Vegas. The Wings led by nine at halftime and by two points going into the fourth quarter. The Aces remained unbeaten at home winning, 89-82.

Dallas came very close despite Arike Ogunbowale, who ranks fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 21.5 points, missing 15 of 20 shots from the floor. Dallas came close despite Satou Sabally missing the second half due to illness. She's fourth in the league in rebounding. Ogunbowale and Sabally are the Wings' top two scorers.

Las Vegas was without star point guard Kelsey Plum due to illness. She's questionable for this game.

This is Dallas' Game of the Year. The game is sold out in Arlington. The Aces are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against Dallas.

Seattle is the worst shooting team in the WNBA. Minnesota is the third-worst scoring team in the league.

Yet these teams combined for 197 points in Minnesota's, 104-93, home win against the Storm two days ago.

Now the teams have made the long trip to Seattle for a quick rematch.

Expect far less scoring.

Besides being very familiar with each other - which is a plus for the defense - the teams don't figure to match their hot shooting from Tuesday.

The Lynx made 52.3 percent of their shots from the floor. They were 8-of-20 (40 percent) from 3-point range. Minnesota ranks 10th in field goal percentage at 41.5 percent and 11th out of 12 teams in 3-point accuracy at 29.7 percent. Seattle coach Noelle Quinn ripped her team for lack of defense intensity. So the Storm will be concentrating more on defense.

Seattle shot 46 percent from the field in Tuesday's game. That's well above their league-low 39.8 percent shooting.

Both teams also combined to make 26-of-29 free throws for 89.6 percent. That's well above their normal free throw percentage.

Minnesota has a tendency to slow pace when on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's past six road games, including the last four.

Every so often there is a scheduling quirk in the WNBA. One comes up today in the Los Angeles-Chicago matchup. The start time is 9 a.m. West Coast time.

That's very bad for the Sparks, who are playing for the third time in six days and certainly not used to playing at such an early time.

I can't back Chicago, though, losers of six in a row.

But I will get involved in the Under.

The Under has cashed in seven of Los Angeles' last nine games. The Sparks are the No. 4 defensive team in the WNBA. This is their first road game in two weeks. All of this is positive for a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker anticipates.

Another huge positive for an Under is how inept the Sky has been offensively.

Chicago is averaging 66.6 points in its past three games, committing 57 turnovers during this three-game span.

The Sky, though, should play with maximum defensive intensity trying to halt their losing skid knowing they probably can't shoot their way out of this slump.

The Under has cashed in seven of the Sky's last 10 home contests.

These are the two worst teams in the WNBA. Phoenix at least has an excuse - injuries. Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have both been out.

Griner and Taurasi, still effective at 41, are expected to return to the lineup today.

That puts me on the underdog Mercury.

Seattle is 1-7 at home this season. The Mercury have covered four of the past five in the series.

The Mercury have a scheduling advantage, too. They last played this past Wednesday, while the Storm are in action for the third time in five days.

Practice time means a lot in the WNBA. The Sky have that after returning home to Chicago following West Coast losses to the Sparks on Friday and Aces on Sunday.

The Sky are well-coached under James Wade. They have the best point spread mark in the WNBA at 7-2-1, including 3-0-1 ATS at home.

I see Wade making the necessary tweaks and adjustments to have his rested Sky ready to beat Indiana. The Fever are much improved this season, but they aren't better than Chicago.

The teams met nine days ago in Chicago and the Sky outscored the Fever by 10 points down the stretch to win by five points in overtime.

The Fever will be playing for the fourth time in seven days. That's rough for an WNBA team. The Fever also could enter this matchup a little too fat and happy after upsetting Washington at home two days ago.

Minnesota is the worst team in the WNBA, even worse than the Indiana Fever. 

The Sparks are improved this season with a coaching change to Curt Miller, who led Connecticut into the NBA Finals last season.

The Sparks have a deep roster and they have some of their injured players back in Azura Stevens and Jasmine Thomas.  That strengthens their rotation. 

LA is 4-3 while Minnesota is 1-7. There's already talk the Lynx are tanking so they can get the first draft pick and perhaps then take Caitlin Clark. 

The Lynx lost at home to the Fever this past Friday. The Lynx were outscored 19-0 in fast break points during that game. 

The Sparks are much improved this season with the coaching change to Curt Miller, who led Connecticut to the WNBA Finals last year. Los Angeles is 3-2. The only team to defeat the Sparks is the unbeaten Aces, who are the best team in the WNBA.

Seattle is in rebuild mode. The Storm are 0-4. They are practically a one-woman team with Jewell Loyd. She is averaging 28 points. No other Seattle player is averaging more than 12 points.

The Storm rank 11th in field goal percentage and are the worst defensive team in the league. They rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Seattle is in rebuild mode. However, the Storm have covered two of their three games. They are well-coached and retained two good players, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor.

The spot sets up well for Seattle here. The Storm have been idle since Tuesday. They have been in Los Angeles before the Sparks.

That's because the Sparks were in Phoenix last night where they upset the Mercury in overtime. That game took a huge effort from the Sparks, who are dealing with multiple injuries and in transition themselves with a new coach.

Early revenge spot here for Phoenix. The Mercury were buried by the Sparks, 94-71, on the road in their opening game on May 19. It was Brittney Griner's first game back after being detained in Russia.

Griner has played in three games now and is regaining her considerable skills as one of the league's elite players. Diana Taurasi still is good, too. She scored 23 points helping the Mercury go 1-2 on the season with a 90-81 win against Minnesota in Phoenix's last game. That was on May 25 so the Mercury should be well rested and prepared having had ample practice time.

The Sparks may have received some home cooking in their win against the Mercury in Los Angeles. The Sparks made an astounding 27 of 29 free throws in that game for 93 percent. Phoenix, despite having Griner in the middle, shot nine fewer free throws.

The Sparks are dealing with multiple injuries and are in transition under new coach Curt Miller.

Minnesota has the worst record in the WNBA at 0-5. The Lynx are desperate for a victory. But to achieve that, they'll have to play much better defense than they have during their last three games when they surrendered 90 or more points.

I can see the Lynx doing that against the revamped Sun, who are second-from-the-bottom in both field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Minnesota has played Las Vegas and Dallas, the two top scoring teams, during two of its last three games. Now the Lynx are stepping down in offensive class.

Minnesota is not a fast tempo team. The Lynx's Cheryl Reeve is one of the better coaches in the league and she is stressing defense in this game.

The Suns might be the third-best team in the WNBA behind Las Vegas and New York because of their defense. Connecticut ranks third in fewest points allowed per game and is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Sun have gone Under in eight of their last nine (89 percent) road games.

Chicago has proven to be underrated this season. The Sky are the only unbeaten spread team left in the WNBA at 4-0 ATS. They are road 'dogs to Atlanta. I don't believe the Dream should be favored.

The Dream just lost at home straight-up to Indiana, the worst team in the WNBA, as a seven-point favorite. The Fever had lost 20 straight games dating back to last season.

Chicago is the No. 3 defensive team in the league giving up 73.5 points. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively surrendering 84 points.

Chicago has injuries to rotation players Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner. However, the Sky have a deep roster and are well coached by James Wade.

The Aces are the highest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 97.3 points. They are shooting 51 percent from the floor and have an offensive rating of 113.6 through three games.

The Lynx lack the defense to slow the Aces down. Their defense is hurt by their sloppy ball handling. Minneota is averaging 16 turnovers a game.

Las Vegas played last night at home. The Aces rolled past the Sparks dominating them early. This allowed Vegas coach Becky Hammon to rest her starters. None of the Aces' starters logged more than 26 minutes. So I'm expecting a fresh Aces team, especially this early in the season.

The Lynx play faster on the road. They are coming off a 90-81 road loss to Phoenix this past Thursday. The Over is 39-18 in Minnesota's last 57 away contests.

The Over has cashed four of the past five times Las Vegas has hosted Minnesota.

Both of these teams are better defensively than on offense. 

Minnesota struggled against Chicago in its opener, losing 77-66. The Lynx committed 20 turnovers and scored only three points in the second quarter.

Atlanta could be a better defensive team than Chicago. 

The Lynx will want to slow things down against the Dream.

The teams just met last Friday in a preseason game. The Sparks buried the Mercury, 90-71.

I see LA winning again. The Sparks upgraded their roster. Most importantly, they hired Curt Miller to be their head coach. The Sparks had the worst coaching in the league last season with Derek Fisher and interim coach Fred Williams after Fisher was fired.

Now the Sparks have an elite coach in Miller, who coached Connecticut to great success leading the Sun to two championship series appearances during the last four years.

The spread is short here because Brittney Griner is back for Phoenix. Griner, though, is going to be extremely rusty. The Sparks also have a tall frontline to combat her.

I don't see a big scoring game here. Both teams are in rebuild mode. The Sky lost four starters, including stars Candace Parker and Courtney Vandersloot. 

The Lynx no longer have their best player, Sylvia Fowles. So they are beginning a new era. Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve usually favors a slower tempo game. 

The teams just met six days ago at neutral site, Toronto, for their final preseason games. The Sky won, 82-74, for a combined total of 156 points. So the teams are already familiar with each other. 

What are the ramifications from a totals standpoint following the Aces' 67-64 Game 1 victory against the Sun in the WNBA Finals? 

We have the lowest total on an Aces game all season. All three regular season matchups between these teams finished with a total above this number. The Sun and Aces averaged 181.3 points during their three regular season matchups. 

So was the meager 131 combined points in Saturday's game an outlier, or indicative of the kind of low-scoring game we will get today? 
Game 1 was a feeling out process. The Sun emphasized a physical, defensive style meant to slow and disrupt the Aces, who love to push pace. It worked. Yet the Sun still lost. 

Both teams shot poorly from the floor. The Sun were held to 37.8 percent from the floor, while the Aces made fewer than 40 percent of their field goals. 

I see a more loose game today. The Aces were the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.4 points. However, they also gave up the fourth-most points in the 12-team league. The Sun can take advantage of that with their height advantage. Connecticut was the No. 3 scoring team averaging 85.8 points. The Sun, though, were below average in defensive field goal percentage. 

Both teams are due to shoot better, especially Aces All-Star guard Kelsey Plum, who missed eight of nine shots from the floor in Game 1. Plum was cold in the Aces' semifinal series against the Storm, too. But the shots and looks were there for her. She's overdue for a big performance. 

The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns.

Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread.

The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them.

Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league.

The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago.

Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus.

The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest.

The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times.

It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss.

The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two.

But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game.

Why? Let me count the reasons:

I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home.

I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult.

I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.

I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots.

This is Game 3 of this semifinal series. The first two games easily went Under the total with 149 and 151 points being scored. The result is we have the lowest total of the series for this game.

There are several factors why these two teams should play a much higher scoring game today.

The Aces led the WNBA in scoring at 90.4 points per game. They should get back two-time All-Star forward Darica Hamby, who has yet to play in the series because of a knee injury. She's averaging 9.3 points. That's not a lot of points, but it's an upgrade on the Aces' weak scoring bench.

Las Vegas evened the series by winning Game 2 this past Wednesday. A key to that victory was going to a small-ball lineup using three guards. This gives the Aces more speed and firepower, but leaves 5-foot-7 Chelsea Gray to cover 6-4 Tina Charles, who led the WNBA in scoring last year. The Storm was caught off-guard by this Game 2 development. They'll be ready this time around.

Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting while averaging 82.5 points a game during the regular season. The Storm get back an important player, too. Gabby Williams is expected to play after missing the first two games of the series because of a concussion. She's the Storm's No. 3 scorer at 13 points a game.

The teams should have plenty of energy having been idle since Wednesday.