Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-22 | Raiders -2 v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
8* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oakland Raiders -2 Even after all the pain the Raiders caused me last Sunday when they somehow managed to fail to cover as a 5.5-point favorite after leading 23-7 going into the 4th quarter, I'm backing them again this week. I'll lay the 2-points with Las Vegas on the road against the Titans. I know both teams are 0-2 and are going to feel like this is a must-win. I just don't think Tennessee is any good. The Raiders in my eyes are by far the better team. My money is on them to find a way to avoid the 0-3 start. Tennessee is so far removed from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Not that they were anything close to the best team in that conference in 2021. They traded away their only real threat in the passing game in A.J. Brown and didn't improve the defense. Derrick Henry hasn't even remotely resembled the back that from two years ago. I also think Ryan Tannehill is regressing with having to shoulder more of the load. They are just not a good football team. They lost a game they shouldn't have in Week 1 to a average at best Jets team and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as Buffalo. I don't see the Titans defense being able to get off the field and I think the Raiders front 7 is good enough to not allow Henry to get going and make it really hard on Tennessee to move the ball. Give me the Raiders -2! |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts OVER 50 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 37 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50 I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Kansa State Wildcats +13 My money is on Kansas State to cover as a 13-point road dog against Oklahoma. I think we got a perfect recipe for line value with last week's results for these two teams. On one side you had Kansas State lose 10-17 at home to Tulane as a 13-point favorite, while Oklahoma went on the road and embarrassed Nebraska 49-14 as a mere 10.5-point favorite. Anyone that was taking a wait and see approach with Oklahoma after losing head coach Lincoln Riley is now going to be sold that this Sooners team is going to run the table and fight for a playoff spot. I just don't think that's the case. Sure, I thought Nebraska would put up more of a fight in the first game after Scott Frost was fired, but that's not a surprising result to me. Maybe I'm wrong and Brent Venables is going to be this great new head coach, but I still think Oklahoma is not on the same level as they were with Riley calling the shots. One thing is for sure, that offense of there's will be facing a defense with any kind of a pulse for the first time this year. Kansas State is miles ahead of any team the Sooners have faced on the defensive side of the ball. I also think you have to ask yourself how much of the spot played into K-State's poor showing against Tulane. The Wildcats were fresh off a 40-12 win against Missouri against rival Missouri as a 7-point favorite. A game some thought they were to struggle to win. Then they had this massive game against Oklahoma looming on deck. I think it had a big impact. I also think you got to look at the track record in this series. K-State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. One as a 23.5-point dog and the other as a 28-point dog. Two of their last 3 losses to Oklahoma have come by 7 or less and they are responsible for 3 of Oklahoma 6 losses at home in Big 12 play since 2012. Would it really shock you if they won this game outright. Not me. Give me the Wildcats +13! |
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09-24-22 | Wisconsin +19 v. Ohio State | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Wisconsin Badgers +19 I will take Wisconsin as a 19-point road dog against Ohio State. Nobody is giving the Badgers any shot in this game and I just feel like the line has gotten out of control. I get the Buckeyes came into this season as a consensus playoff pick and they have looked the part in their last two games against Arkansas State (45-12) and Toledo (77-21), but it's like everyone has just completely blocked out their opener against Notre Dame. A game they only won 21-10 as a similarly priced 17-point favorite. Wisconsin is a heck of a lot better team than Notre Dame. That's just not the perception people have. A big reason for that is the Badgers shocking 14-17 home loss to Washington State. Yes, they lost, but they were the better team. Wisconsin outgained the Cougars 401 to 253 with a 22-10 edge in first downs. I just think if Notre Dame's defense can give this Ohio State offense fits, there's no reason to think the Badgers' defense can't do the same. All Ohio State is going to hear going into this game is how good they are and how Wisconsin doesn't have the offense to compete. They kind of mindset is how upsets happen. The Badgers will not only being playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they got nothing to lose here. I could be dead wrong here, but at this price and how big the public is on Ohio State, I got to take the points. Give me the Badgers +19! |
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09-24-22 | Connecticut +39 v. NC State | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 76 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS KNOCKOUT: UConn Huskies +39 Yes, I'm taking the 39-points with UConn on the road against NC State. The same UConn team that has lost 14-48 at home to Syracuse (24-pt dog) and 0-59 at Michigan (47.5 pt dog) in their last two games. Most will just assume that with NC State sitting there ranked No. 12 in the country, they are just going to be able to name their score in this one. I just don't think that's going to be the case. Wolfpack are 3-0, but they have not impressed me in their two biggest games. They beat ECU 21-20 and the Pirates missed an extra point late, as well as a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds. They did just beat Texas Tech 27-14, were outgained 353-270 by the Red-Raiders. The other big factor here is the spot. NC State has their biggest game on their schedule looming next week at Clemson. A game that they probably have to win to have a legit shot at winning the ACC Atlantic. They aren't going to be out for style points in this game. Their primary focus is to win and keep everyone healthy. So even if they get up early, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win by 40+ with all their backups playing the entire 2nd half. Give me UConn +39! |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Northern Illinois Huskies +26.5 I really like Northern Illinois to cover as a 26.5-point dog against Kentucky. To me this line doesn't make a lot of sense. In the Wildcats season opener they were a mere 15-point home favorite against Miami (OH). Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) both play in the MAC and the Huskies are the defending MAC champs with 18 returning starters. This line suggest that Northern Illinois would be a double-digit dog on a neutral to Miami (OH). No chance. It's also worth noting that while Kentucky won and covered against the RedHawks in a 37-13 win. They needed a last second field goal to go into the half with a 13-10 lead. They then flipped the script with a 100-yard kick return to open the 2nd half. They only outgained Miami (OH) by 63 yards. For them to win by 27 or more you would think they need to outgain Northern Illinois by 250+ yards. I just don't see that happening. Northern Illinois is going to fight. There's not many bigger stages for them than playing a Top 10 ranked opponent. I'm just not a believer that Kentucky is a Top 10 team and I think this is a bit of a tricky spot for them with a huge game on deck next week at No. 16 Ole Miss. Even if they get up big, they are going to pull their guys and go into conservative mode, which will leave the backdoor wide open. Give me Northern Illinois +26.5! |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5 I love the Razorbacks as a 2.5-point dog in their neutral site showdown with the Aggies. For those that don't know, the game is being played at AT&T Stadium (home of the Cowboys). Sure Texas A&M was able to win and cover last week in their huge game against Miami, winning 17-9 as a 6.5-point favorite. They were lucky to do so, as they were outgained 392 to 264. There was hope that a switch to QB Max Johnson would spark the offense. It didn't It looked like the exact same offense that let them down in their upset loss at home to App State. If that wasn't a prime time night game under the lights, where that Texas A&M crowd is out of control, I don't know if they beat the Hurricanes. They aren't going to have that kind of crowd impact at AT&T Stadium and are playing their toughest challenge to date in Arkansas. I don't know what it is about the Razorbacks, but they just keep staying under the radar. They are now 8-1 in their last 9 games and their only loss was by a mere 7-points at Alabama. They got the best quarterback nobody talks about in KJ Jefferson, who is off to a great start. The gap in talent at the quarterback position alone in this game is enough that should have Arkansas favored. I just don't see the Aggies being able to do enough offensively to win this game and say what you want about Alabama looming on the schedule next week for the Razorbacks. They are not looking past this game. Give me Arkansas +2.5! |
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09-24-22 | Arizona +3 v. California | 31-49 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arizona Wildcats +3 I will gladly take 3-points on the road with Arizona at Cal. I'm 1-1 on the Wildcats this year. I won with them in their 38-20 win at San Diego State as a 6.5-point dog. I lost with them in a 17-39 loss at home to Mississippi State as a 10.5-point dog. Looking back I just got a little too greedy with Arizona. Their a team I'm so high on this year and even though they are improved, they aren't quite ready to compete with the big boys. Cal is certainly not a big boy. The Golden Bears are 2-1. They were far from impressive in home wins over UC Davis and UNLV to start the year. They did however cover as a 13.5-point dog in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week. It's a big deal going on the road and facing the Irish in South Bend. That was easily the biggest game on the schedule for Cal in the first half of their season. Regardless of how that game went, it was going to be tough for the Golden Bears to bounce back with a top tier effort in this game. I think it's even less likely after losing the way they did (led 17-14 going into the 4th). There's just nothing I've seen so far that makes me think in differently on Cal, who I didn't think was going to be very good. Golden Bears only returned 8 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year. As for Arizona, they were a team I thought was poised to make a massive jump in 2022. Not only were they figuring to be improved in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch, but they brought in a ton of talent via the transfer portal, including nabbing last year's Pac-12 leading passer in quarterback Jayden De Laura. Simply put I think they are the better team and should be favored in this one. Give me Arizona +3! |
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09-24-22 | Toledo v. San Diego State +3 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 28 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Diego State Aztecs +3 I will gladly take the 3-points with San Diego State at home against Toledo. I think this is the perfect spot and price to buy-low on the Aztecs. San Diego State has not been impressive to start the year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost 20-38 as a 6-point favorite at home to Arizona in their opener, beat Idaho State 38-7 as a 32.5-point favorite and then got annihilated 35-7 at Utah as a 22-point dog. Thing a lot of people don't realize is they really haven't lost a game they should have won. Yes, they were a favorite against Arizona in their opener, but that Wildcats team was being way undervalued coming into this season. Arizona is easily one of the more improved teams in the country. As for the loss to Utah, what did you really expect. That's a Utes team that a lot of people picked to make the playoffs. One thing to note about the poor offensive showing against Utah is they lost starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister in the 1st quarter. (poked in the eye) He didn't return, but head coach Brady Hoke has said he's going to be ready to go for Saturday. I just think that given how bad SDSU has looked and Toledo being one of the favorites to win the MAC has the wrong team favored. The Rockets might be the class of the MAC, but the MAC is also the worst conference in the FBS. The other huge factor for me is the spot. Toledo's biggest game on their schedule was last week at in-state big brother Ohio State (who they rarely get to play). So even though they got annihilated 71-21, it will be tough for them to bring that same level of energy to this game. Not only that, but keep in mind they are now back on the road and forced to go way out west against a hungry San Diego State. Last time the Rockies traveled to California for a regular-season game was 2018 against Fresno State. A game they lost 27-49 as a 9-point dog. Give me San Diego State +3! |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 28 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Smart Money CASH COW: James Madison Dukes +7 I will once again fade Appalachian State and grab the 7-points with James Madison. Last week we backed Troy at +12.5 and the Trojans nearly won outright, losing on a hail mary in the final seconds. I faded App State in that game because of the emotional rollercoaster they had been on to start the year. First they lose 61-63 to UNC, scoring 40 points in the 4th quarter to nearly erase a 20-point 4th quarter deficit (missed 2-pt conversion with 9 seconds left). Then they pulled off a massive upset, beating Texas A&M 17-14 on the road. I just don't see them having anything left in the tank for this game and they are up against a very talented Dukes team. For those that don't know James Madison made the jump from FCS to the FBS this year. The assumption most have when this happen is they are going to struggle that first year after making the jump. I don't think that's the case at all. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season in 2021 and have won 9 or more games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. In their opener against Middle Tennessee they beat the Blue Raiders 44-7 as a 5-point favorite, outgaining them 548 to 119 in the process. They then destroyed Norfolk State 63-7. Very similar type of dominating performance to Marshall in their 55-3 win over Norfolk State. The other massive factor in this game is the fact that James Madison is coming off a bye week, which means they not only are going to have fresh legs, but have had two full weeks to prepare for this game. A game you know they had circled with how many people had App State picked to win the conference. The Dukes will be out to make a statement that they belong. I give them a real shot here to win this game outright. Give me the James Madison +7. |
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09-24-22 | Texas v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 72 h 41 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 I absolutely love getting Texas Tech as a 7-point home dog against Texas. The Longhorns to be are being way overvalued right now. Texas is a public team and any time this team shows they might be back, everyone is so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Their 19-20 loss to Alabama completely flipped the script on the perception of this team. Unfortunately for Texas they lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who looked like a real difference maker for this team. No disrespect to backup Hudson Card, but he's a big down grade. Card has attempted 14 more passes (8 more completions) than Ewers and still trail him in yards. I believe it makes them more one-dimensional with the run game. They wound up covering as a 13-point favorite with Card under center last week against UTSA, winning 41-20. However, they far from dominated that game. They only outgained the Roadrunners 459-408 and had just 21 first downs to UTSA's 29. I just think them winning and covering and then Texas Tech failing to cover as a 10.5-point dog in a 14-27 loss at NC State has created some line value here. Keep in mind the public was all over the Red Raiders as a double-digit dog against NC State. The key here is the public only cares about the final result. Texas Tech lost them money. Thing is, they probably shouldn't have. Red Raiders outgained NC State 353 to 270. I've really liked what I've seen out of this team in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. I also loved both their coordinator hires, bringing in Zach Kittley on offense and Tim DeRuyter on defense. I also see a very motivated Texas Tech team coming into this game after last year's embarrassing 35-70 loss to Texas, where they trailed 14-42 at the half and 28-63 after 3 quarters. While it's not a night game in Lubbock, Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this game. There's not a game on the schedule the Red Raiders want more than this one and they haven't won in this series since 2017 (only 4 wins since 1999). I think this team is not only capable of making a game of it with Card at quarterback, I think they got a legit shot here to win outright. Give me Texas Tech +7! |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State +3 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +3 I love Michigan State as a 3-point home dog against Minnesota. I took it on the chin last week with the Spartans as a 3.5-point dog at Washington. I undervalued the Huskies, especially quarterback Michael Penix. I also gave way to much respect to the Michigan State secondary. I thought it was more improved than it was. The good news is that loss has created a good buy low spot with the Spartans. No way should they be a home dog to the Gophers. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 start. Not only have they won all 3 games they have played, they have covered the number. They covered with ease last week as a 28-point favorite against Colorado, winning by a final of 49-7. That's not a very good Buffaloes team. Colorado has lost 13-38 at home to TCU and 10-41 at Air Force in their other two games. Minnesota's other two wins are against New Mexico State and Western Illinois. I'm not saying the Gophers aren't a good team. I just think they are way overvalued right now and I think it's a bad matchup for them. The inability to stop top tier quarterbacks was the downfall of Michigan State in 2021. Clearly it's still a problem. What they haven't struggled to stop is the run. They are allowing just 90 ypg and 2.7 yards/carry. The Gophers' Tanner Morgan is a quality quarterback at the college level, but he's not going to carry this team with his arm. Minnesota's offense is built on their running game. They have ran it 50+ times in each of their first 3 games. They will also be handcuffed in the passing game going forward after losing wide out, Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury. Autman-Bell led the team in catches (11), yards (214) and yards/catch (19.5). Minnesota's defense looks all world thru 3 games, giving up just 5.7 ppg and 170 ypg, but note the 3 teams they play combine to only average 9.3 ppg and 226 ypg. Gophers haven't even sniffed an offense as good as Michigan State. The defense will be solid, but not this good. They lost a ton up front from last year. I look for the Spartans to be able get the ground game going and pick up some big plays thru the air. Give me Michigan State +3! |
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09-23-22 | Virginia v. Syracuse OVER 52.5 | 20-22 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Syracuse OVER 52.5 I really like the OVER 52.5 to cash in Friday's ACC matchup between Virginia and Syracuse. I think we are getting close to a TD in terms of value, as my numbers suggest a total closer to 60. Part of the reason I believe we are seeing a low total is the fact that the Cavaliers have seen the UNDER cash in all 3 of their games and in their one true test they scored just 3-points on the road vs Illinois. Also, while the Orange did give up 29 last week to Purdue, they did hold Malik Cunningham and a good Louisville offense to just 7 points in their opener. At the same time, I don't think people have quite caught on to just how improved this Syracuse offense is. We knew the Orange would be a strong running team with a back like Sean Tucker. What's taken this offense to another level is their improved passing attack. Garrett Shrader has completed 66.2% of his attempts, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has a 8-0 TD-INT ratio. Last year, Syracuse as a team averaged just 153 yards, completed 54.4% of their attempts and ended the year with their quarterbacks posting a mere 10-6 TD-INT ratio. I don't think it's a fluke. Orange added in former Virginia OC Robert Anae to be their new OC this year. Anae really built up that Cavaliers offense. You might be thinking it could be an advantage for Virginia to know the offense that Syracuse is running, but the Cavaliers completely overhauled their staff for new head coach Tony Elliott. Orange have scored at least 31 in each of their first 3 games and should easily hit that mark against what I think is a very overrated Virginia defense. The Cavaliers come in giving up just 18.3 ppg and 350 yards/game, but have played an awful ODU offense, a FCS foe in Richmond and while they held Illinois to 24, the Illini could have easily had 40 in that game. The big concern is how will Virginia's offense do. I'm confident they will be able to at least get into the 20s. The Cavaliers have one of the better QBs in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, a new offensive minded coach in Elliott (former OC at Clemson) and Syracuse's defense is built more to stop the run than it is the pass. I also think there's a potential here that the Orange defense comes out a bit flat in this game. You got to think that crazy finish against Purdue last week took a lot out of this Syracuse team and that lack of energy can really show up on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 52.5! |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5 I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think. Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game. The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243. As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation. Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402! This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24. Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season. Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5! |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia -1 v. Virginia Tech | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: W Virginia Mountaineers -1 I'm taking West Virginia to cover as a slim 1 point road favorite against Virginia Tech. Even though the Mountaineers come into this game off a 65-7 blowout win over Towson, I think there's value stemming from the fact that they are 1-2 with a 42-55 loss at home to Kansas as a 14-point favorite. A couple of years ago losing at home to Kansas would be unacceptable, but this year's Jayhawks team is built different. They just went on the road and beat Houston last week 48-30 as more than a TD dog. It's worth noting that West Virginia did lead 21-3 and had a 511 to 419 edge in total yards in the loss to the Jayhawks. There other loss is a 31-38 setback on the road against a pretty good Pitt team. A game they led by 7 in the 4th quarter and eventually lost on a 56-yard interception return for a score. Mountaineers also outgained the Panthers 404-384. Those are two pretty talent offensive teams. Kansas has a Top 10 ranked rushing attack and Pitt had one of the top QBs in the country in Slovis. Virginia Tech doesn't do really do anything well offensively. In their two games so far against FBS opponents they have managed just 333 total yards against Old Dominion and 284 against Boston College. I'm also sure there's going to be talk about the great defensive numbers that the Hokies have thru 3 games. Something a lot of people will quickly buy into because they will just attribute it to first year head coach Brent Pry who came over after being the DC at Penn State. I'm not saying the defense isn't improved. I just don't think it's as good as people think. Boston College only had 312 total yards at home against Rutgers and Old Dominion had just 290 in a loss to ECU and 324 against Virginia. Adding on to the Old Dominion games that they have played since playing Virginia Tech. I mentioned the Hokies had just 333 total yards vs them. The Monarchs gave up 531 yards to East Carolina and 513 to Virginia. Look for JT Daniels and that Mountaineers offense to make some plays and I just don't see the Hokies offense being able to keep pace. This also feels like it's a season-saving type game for West Virginia. With Texas and Baylor on the schedule next, they need this win, which is why I'm not concerned about them looking ahead to that game with the Longhorns. Give me West Virginia -1! |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 50 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50 I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! |
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09-18-22 | Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 I'm going to take the Raiders as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday. I know you don't want to overreact to what you saw in Week 1, but I can't help myself here laying less than a touchdown with the Raiders. The biggest thing for me is I came into this season way down on the Cardinals, especially early in the year with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension. Keep in mind they also lost Christian Kirk in free agency, who led them last year in receiving with 77 catches for 982 yards and 5 scores. One of the guys they were hoping to fill the void was Rondale Moore and he's doubtful. Tight end Zach Ertz is also questionable with a calf injury. That's just the offense. The defense lost one of their stud pass rushers in Chandler Jones and failed to address their biggest need up front on the defensive line. J.J. Watt didn't play in the opener and while he could be back isn't enough to sure up that side of the ball. I just have a hard time seeing this team as it's currently constructed being able to go on the road and compete with a Raiders team that is much better than they showed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Everyone acts like Las Vegas was dominated in their 19-24 loss to LA, but I saw it differently. I thought it was actually impressive that the Raiders had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter given Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. The offensive line clearly is a weakness for Las Vegas and was exposed against maybe the pass rushing duo in the NFL in the Chargers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Arizona just doesn't have the talent in their front 7 to expose the Raiders weakness on the o-line and in turn I look for Carr and the Raiders offense to have a similar type of showing as we saw last week with Mahomes and Chiefs doing whatever they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take my chances with the Raiders defense doing enough for Las Vegas to get at least 6 points of separation when this is all said and done. Give me the Raiders -5.5! |
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09-18-22 | Falcons +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5 I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense. A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run. As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself. Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys. I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5! |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets +7 I'll take my chances with the Jets cashing in as a 7-point road dog against the Browns in Week 2. Even though we lost with the Panthers in Week 1 against Cleveland, I still think this Browns team is getting a little too much love with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback. The Panthers did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot for the majority of that game. Even after trailing by 14 early and by double-digits going into the 4th, Carolina had a 24-23 lead with 1:13 left to play. If not for Cade York's 58-yard game winning field goal, I think the perception would be a lot different on Cleveland going into Week 2. Even with rushing for 217 yards and 5.6 yards/carry, Cleveland finished the game averaging just 4.8 yards/play. That really speaks to how much the offense is playing behind the 8-ball with Brissett. As for the Jets, I didn't feel they played as poorly as it appeared in Week 1. The Jets lost 24-9 to Baltimore, but they actually outgained the Ravens 380 to 274. Joe Flacco wasn't great, but did manage to thro for 309 yards. No one is giving the Jets defense the love it deserves after holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check. NY was very stingy versus the run, giving up just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Jackson, only had 17 rushing yards on 6 attempts. That right there is probably the biggest reason I like New York in this game. I think the Browns are extremely one-dimensional with their run game until Watson gets back from suspension. If the Jets run defense can keep the Browns from racking up 1st downs on the ground, they not only are going to keep this within 7 but will be right there with a chance to win outright. Give me the Jets +7! |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders v. Lions OVER 47.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Commanders/Lions OVER 47.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's Week 2 matchup between the Lions and Commanders. I'm actually a little shocked this total isn't in the 50s after what we saw in Week 1. Both offenses really performed well last Sunday. Washington put up 28 points and 390 yards against the Jaguars. If not for 3 turnovers by the Commanders, they easily finish with over 30 points and 400 yards of offense. Detroit had 35 points and 386 yards of offense in a 35-38 loss to the Eagles. I know the Lions scored 3 of their 5 touchdowns after falling behind 14-31 in the 2nd half, but that had 38 combined points at the half and 59 after 3 quarters. I really think the way this Detroit team is built, they are going to find themselves in a lot of high scoring games. I also think the Commanders defense isn't very good, at least until Chase Young returns from his knee injury. They gave up 383 total yards and 6.2 yards/play to the Jaguars in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence, who might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL threw for 275 and Jacksonville averaged 6.8 yards/carry on the ground. This to me has shootout written all over it. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 43 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43 I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! |
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09-17-22 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Washington | 28-39 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Michigan State Spartans +3.5 I'll take my chances with No. 11 Michigan State catching 3.5 points on the road against Washington. Usually I look to go the other way when there's a ranked team catching points against an unranked opponent, but I think we are seeing Washington get a little too much respect after their 2-0 start. No one saw the Huskies going 4-8 last year. People were not only picking them to win the Pac-12, but make the 4-team playoff before the season started. It just feels like everyone wants this team to be good and I think people are jumping back on the bandwagon after watching them dominate their first two opponents. They beat Kent State 45-20 as a 24-point favorite and rolled Portland State 52-6 as a 30-point favorite. Not sure what beating either of those teams tells you about this team. To me there's still a lot this Cougars team has to do to prove they are for real. Michigan State has also started 2-0 and yet it doesn't feel like anyone is taking this team all tha seriously despite their high ranking. A lot of that has to do with no one seeing a path for them to even win their own division in the Big Ten. It's all Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. I really like the Spartans head coach Mel Tucker and the direction he has this team headed. There were some concerns with the offense coming into this season after losing running back Kenneth Walker. So far he hasn't been missed. Redshirt freshman Jalen Berger has 227 yards on 33 attempts and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard has 135 on 25 carries. They got back starting QB Payton Thorne and a future NFL WR in Jayden Reed. The big problem last year was the Michigan State secondary and I'm sure those struggles against the pass are going to convince some to lay it with Washington given how good Indiana transfer Michael Penix has looked to start the year. However, the Spartans returned 9 starters on defense and are much improved in the secondary. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm going into this expecting the Spartans to win. Give me Michigan State +3.5! |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State v. LSU +2.5 | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: LSU Tigers +2.5 I will gladly take the 2.5-points with LSU at home against Mississippi State on Saturday. I think we got a good buy-low spot on the Tigers, who lost a lot of the hype around them in their Week 1 loss to Florida State. I also think it's a decent sell-high spot with Mississippi State, who has started 2-0 with two really easy covers, beating Memphis 49-23 at home as a 17-point favorite and going on the road and beating Arizona 39-17 as a 12.5-point favorite. I was on the Wildcats in that game last week and while I still feel like Arizona is going to be a good bet going forward, I think I got a little ahead of myself in that one. Wildcats still have a ways to go to compete with a talented SEC team like Mississippi State, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I think it's going to be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bulldogs offense in this one. LSU's defense didn't play great in the loss to FSU, but well enough to win. I expect them to be flying around the field at home in this one. I also think people are sleeping a little on this LSU offense. They are so much better at the QB position than they have been the last two years with ASU transfer Jayden Daniels. Thru two games, he's completed 78% of his attempts with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 132 yards (6.9 yards/carry). I don't know if it's because LSU has been down some of late, but winning at Tiger Stadium in a prime time game like we have here (6 pm EST kickoff) is not easy. Let's also not forget that as bad as LSU was last year, they went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 28-25. Brian Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home dog in his 18+ years as a head coach (LSU was 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog last year). Give me the Tigers +2.5! |
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09-17-22 | Kansas +9 v. Houston | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 18 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +9 I will take my chances with Kansas as a 9-point road dog at Houston. Those that have followed this Jayhawks team closely would tell you that 2nd year head coach Lance Leipold is quietly taking Kansas from a doormat in the Big 12 to a team that can compete on the big stage against the top teams. We saw it unfold a little bit at the end of last season. In their last 3 games, KU upset Texas on the road 57-56 as a 31-point dog, lost by just 3-points on the road at TCU as a 21-point dog and lost by 6 to WV as a 15-point dog. It's continued into 2022. They annihilated Tennessee Tech 56-10 in their opener, covering as a 32-point favorite and then went on the road and beat West Virginia 55-42 as a 14-point dog. While the win over the Mountaineers certainly caught the attention of people, it's going to take a lot more than that for the value to go away with Kansas. Teams like the Jayhawks that have been so bad for so long will continue to show value. I could see there being value with KU the entire rest of this season. On the flip side of this, I came into this season thinking Houston was a big overrated and I really haven't seen anything to change my mind. Cougars are lucky they aren't 0-2. They trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before narrowly escaping with a 37-35 OT win at UTSA in Week 1. They then lost 30-33 in 2OT at Texas Tech last week. They were outgained 468 to 354 by the Red Raiders and 441-346 by UTSA. You also got to wonder just how much gas Houston has left in the tank after going into overtime in each of their first two games. Kansas to me is a live dog in this one. Give me the Jayhawks +9! |
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09-17-22 | Troy +12.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: Troy Trojans +12.5 I love the value with Troy as a 12.5-point dog on the road against Appalachian State. This to me is the perfect spot to sell-high on the Mountaineers, who are getting all kinds of love after narrowly losing to UNC 61-63 in Week 1 and then pulling off the massive upset on the road last week at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point underdog. The betting public is going to be all over App State laying less than two touchdowns at home against a Troy team that hasn't really done anything to garner much attention, losing 28-10 at Ole Miss in Week 1 and then only beating Alabama A&M 38-17 as a 37.5-point favorite last week. I'm personally really high on this Troy team in 2022. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back (9 offense, 9 defense). I loved the hire of head coach Jon Sumrall, who was a co-DC at Kentucky last year. This team more than held their own against the Rebels in the opener. They were only -87 in total yards (346-433) -4 in first downs (20-24). I think with App State poised for a letdown after playing two close games against Power 5 teams in their first two games, not only makes Troy the play here but I give them a legit shot at pulling off the upset and winning this game outright. Give me the Trojans +12.5! |
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09-17-22 | Tulane +14 v. Kansas State | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 52 h 17 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Tulane Green Wave +14 I will take my chances with Willie Fritz and Tulane catching two touchdowns on the road against Kansas State. Everyone is jumping on the Wildcats bandwagon this week after watching them absolutely destroy Missouri 40-12 last week as a mere 7-point favorite. In easily my worst bet of the weekend last week, I took the points with the Tigers in that game. As much as I came away impressed with Kansas State in that game, I'm going against the Wildcats again this week. I still have some real concerns with the Kansas State offense. They have been able to do whatever they want on the ground, rushing for 297 yards in the opener against South Dakota and 235 against Missouri. It's masked up some real inefficiencies in the passing game. Wildcats have a mere 196 passing yards in their first two games combined. Adrian Martinez was just 9 for 20 for 101 yards in the win over the Tigers. The lack of passing game could really come back to haunt them in this game against a very underrated Tulane defense. They were the best defense in the AAC last year behind Cincinnati in the 2nd half of the year. They ended the year only giving up 3.9 yards/carry and return 9 starters on that side of the ball. I know they have played two cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State, but they have allowed just 2.9 yards/carry against those two teams. I expect Tulane to load the box and force Martinez to beat them with his arm. I also think the Tulane offense came into this season under the radar. They brought back 9 starters on that side of the ball as well. As good as that K-State defense is, I think they will be able to put points on the board. Another important thing to note is this is not a great spot for the Wildcats. They got to be feeling really good about themselves after blowing out their rival Missouri and have a MONSTER game on deck at Oklahoma next week. Give me Tulane +14! |
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09-17-22 | Ohio +18.5 v. Iowa State | 10-43 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Ohio Bobcats +18.5 I'm going to roll the dice with Ohio as a 18.5-point road dog against Iowa State. I think we are getting some really good value here with the Bobcats catching this many points. It wasn't pretty last week for Ohio, who went on the road and got annihilated 46-10 at Penn State. It was every bit as ugly as the final score, as they were outgained 572 to 264. That to me is as bad as this Ohio offense can play and it came against what I think is a much improved Penn State team that is not as behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East as some people think. Keep in mind we saw Ohio put 41 points and 476 total yards in their Week 1 win over FAU. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 345 yards and 4 scores in that game. As for Iowa State, this is a team that I think is down a notch or two from last year. Cyclones lost their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, one of the best running back in the country in Breece Hall and two stud tight ends. They also lost their top 4 tacklers on defense. On top of that, I think this is an ideal spot to fade Iowa State coming off their emotional 10-7 win over in-state rival Iowa last week. It snapped a 6-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes and was their first win over Iowa under head coach Matt Campbell. ISU's defense did hold Iowa to just 150 total yards, but don't read anything into that. That Hawkeyes offense is absolutely horrible. They are starting a guy at QB that I'm not sure would start anywhere else in the country. They also played one of the worst FCS teams in their opener in SE Missouri State. I really think the Bobcats are going to keep this score close and if they can manage to win the turnover battle, they could pull off the upset. Give me Ohio +18.5! |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | 29-32 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR: Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 I'm going to take Purdue as a 1.5-point road dog at Syracuse on Saturday. I came into this season with a lot of concerns with the Boilermakers. Most notably how they would replace losing a guy like WR David Bell on the offensive side of the ball and a guy like George Karlaftis on the defensive side. From what I've seen in the first two games, I don't see them as concerns at all for Purdue. Jeff Brohm has really built this program up and he's got one of the best non dual threat QBs in the country in Aidan O'Connell. He had over 3,700 yards and 28 TDs in 2021 and didn't start the first 4 games. He threw for 365 yards in the opener against Penn State. As for replacing Bell, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has taken over that role as the No. 1 threat. Jones has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs. Defensively they don't have another Karlaftis on the field, but the overall talent is very good. I thought the defensive line more than held their own against a very good Nittany Lions offense. Most of the damage done by Penn State came via the passing game. Nittany Lions had just 98 rushing yards on 32 attempts. I know it was against a MAC team, but worth noting that Penn State had 234 rushing yards on 34 attempts against Ohio last week. Their ability to slow down the run game is a big reason I like them in this matchup. I know the Orange come in averaging 276 passing yards/game, but a lot of that was aided with the 309 yards they put up on an awful UConn defense last week. Syracuse is still a run first team behind Sean Tucker. They are averaging 46 rush attempts to just 26 pass attempts. I think if they get into a situation here where they have to pass playing from behind, this could really spiral out of control for them. Defensively the Orange look really good on paper coming into this game, as they are giving up just 10.5 ppg and 268 ypg. Again those numbers were aided by playing UConn, but they did hold Louisville to just 7 points in their opener. Some of that was Louisville beating themselves with turnovers, but we also saw the Cardinals offense struggle to produce last week against UCF. The other big thing for me is this Syracuse defense is built more to stop the run. Last year they gave up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run, but allowed opposing QBs to complete 66% of their passes. In their two games this year against Louisville and UConn, they have given up a ridiculous 33 completions on 42 pass attempts, which comes out to a 78.6% completion rate. I think O'Connell and the Boilermakers elite passing attack will have a field day in this one. Give me Purdue +1.5! |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville UNDER 57.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Friday Night ACC NO-BRAINER: FSU/Louisville UNDER 57.5 I really like the UNDER 57.5 in Friday's ACC matchup between Florida State and Louisville. I just have a hard time seeing this turn into a shootout. Both these teams have dual threat QBs who are a much bigger threat to run than they are to pass. The threat for big plays is definitely there, but for the most part these are two offenses that want to methodically move the ball down the field. I came into the season extremely high on Louisville's offense, as I thought quarterback Malik Cunningham was going to take a big step forward. I just haven't seen it in his first two games. The Cardinals could do nothing in their opener at Syracuse, scoring just 7 points and gaining 334 total yards. They did manage to put up over 400 yards in their win over UCF last week, but only managed to score 20 points. I just don't think they are built to have success against this Florida State defense. Seminoles returned 8 starters and added in some nice pieces on defense via the portal. I was very impressed with how they played against LSU. They held a potent Tigers offense to just 348 total yards, had 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. They did struggle to contain LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had 114 yards on 16 attempts. However, the rest of the team had just 25 rushing yards on 14 attempts. Louisville's defense has been a bit spotty in their first two games, especially against the run, but keep in mind that both of those were on the road. Defenses usually perform better at home and typically will get a big boost in these prime time weekday games. FSU had 392 total yards and were 11 for 17 on 3rd downs, yet still only scored 24 against LSU. I think the Cardinals can keep them below 30, which should in term have this game finishing in the upper 40s/low 50s. Give me the UNDER 57.5! |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4 I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play. Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has. What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead. Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +7 Not a huge bet for me, but I'll throw some cash on the Seahawks catching a touchdown at home against the Broncos. I'm not as high on Denver as some others. Russell Wilson is without a doubt an upgrade at quarterback. I just don't think it's a lock he comes in and this offense just takes off. Much like his days in Seattle, Wilson will be taking snaps behind another poor offensive line. I also don't think it's close in terms of the talent he has in the passing game. Sutton and Jeudy have some promise, but they aren't on the same level as Metcalf and Lockett. I also worry about that offensive line in a hostile road environment. Not only is MNF, but this game means more given the history with Wilson. Seattle isn't getting any love coming into this season. That should have them coming out in this one with a huge chip on their shoulder. Geno Smith is far from elite, but he's not horrible and this should be one of the better rushing teams in the league. Denver's run defense was a weakness last year and I don't see it being all that improved. Give me the Seahawks +7! |
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09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans OVER 43.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 54 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Giants/Titans OVER 43.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Sunday's NFL matchup between the Giants and Titans. I was shocked to see this total this low. I'm expecting major improvements from the Giants offense this year after they were one of the worst in the league last year. It's not so much the players the Giants added offensively, but the guy calling the shots. I'm a big Brian Daboll fan and really believe he's the guy that transformed Josh Allen into the quarterback he is now. I'm not saying he's going to take Daniel Jones to that level, but he's going to be better. The offense is going to be more pass happy than it's been and as a result will score a lot more than the 15.2 ppg they averaged last year. Defensively New York was 25th against the run and the entire defense to me is a big question mark going into this season. I just don't know that the talent is there and I think it's asking a lot for them to have to try to contain what I think is going to be a hungry and motivated Derrick Henry. When Henry has it going, it opens up the entire offense for Tennessee. I got both teams scoring well into the 20s and for these two to push the 50-point mark. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3 I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line. Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa. On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games. I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 I got no problem laying the 6.5 on the road with Baltimore in Week 1, as they will fly to New York to take on the Jets. I know people aren't exactly dogging on the Ravens coming into this season, but I don't think they are getting near the respect they deserve. People forget about all the injuries they had to overcome last year. They finished just 8-9 and had 6 losses decided by fewer than a touchdown, including 5 by 3 or fewer. Lamar Jackson is special and I look for him to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing season last year. On the defense, I expect the Ravens to be one of the top units in the league. They were No. 1 last year against the run, but were dead last against the pass. They won't be last against the pass again. They get back stud corner Marcus Peters after he missed all of last year, added in a really good safety in Marcus Williams and used a 1st round pick on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. You also have a Jets team that I think is a year away from competing. Yes, New York had a great draft this offseason, but expecting all those guys to come in and contribute at the level needed right away is asking a lot. They are also starting the season without Zach Wilson at quarterback and instead will be sending the old and washed up Joe Flacco. I don't see that offense being able to much of anything against this Ravens defense. Give me Baltimore -6.5! |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers -1 | 26-24 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers -1 I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a slim -1 home favorite against the Browns. I don't think Carolina is getting near the respect they deserve to start the season. They are one of my favorite sleeper teams coming into 2022. I not only think they will be in the playoff picture, but I give them an outside shot of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay still has Tom Brady, but he's one year older and playing behind a much worse offensive line. The Saints got a ton of talent, but no longer have Sean Payton to steer that offense. The Falcons are in full on rebuild mode. Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, he's a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for Carolina. Last year the Panthers had to make do with either Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or PJ Walker under center. Combined those 3 had a horrific 14 to 21 TD to INT ratio. Mayfield, who everyone was ragging on last year had a 17-13 TD-INT ratio and did that playing at less than 100%. A lot of people forget how good Mayfield was when he was healthy in 2020, throwing for over 3,500 yards with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. Not only do they get an upgrade at quarterback, but at least to start the season they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey at running back. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, but in 2019 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also catching 116 passes for 1,005 yards and 4 scores. They get back their top two WRs in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, while also adding in one of Mayfields old teammates in Rashad Higgins and trading for Laviska Shenault, who has 121 catches for 1,219 yards in two seasons playing for a bad Jaguars team. Not to mention they completely revamped their offensive line and should be greatly improved up front. I also don't think people realize how good this Panthers defense was last year. While they ranked a mere 21st in scoring defense, giving up 23.8 ppg, they were No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 305.9 ypg. They had the No. 4 ranked pass defense, despite losing stud rookie 1st round corner Jaycee Horn to an injury after just 3 games. As for the Browns, they got some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, they are going to be limited offensively with Jacoby Brissett. I really think they are going to be a little too one dimensional with the run game and really struggle to win games early on in the year. Give me the Panthers -1! |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year. Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter. He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed. They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact. The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks. I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5! |
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09-10-22 | Mississippi State v. Arizona +10.5 | 39-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 58 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Arizona Wildcats +10.5 I will take my chances with the Wildcats as a 10.5-point home dog against Mississippi State late Saturday night. I backed Arizona as a 6.5-point road dog in Week 1 at San Diego State and they won that game 38-20. I mentioned in my analysis for that play that I thought Arizona was being extremely undervalued coming into this season and one win is not going to change that after last year's 1-11 campaign. The Wildcats could end up being one of the most improved teams in the country with the influx of talent they added to their roster and now being in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch. The biggest upgrade for the Wildcats came at quarterback, where they landed Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura, who led the Pac-12 in passing last year. He was outstanding in their win over the Aztecs, throwing for 299 yards and 4 scores. Arizona also had 162 yards on the ground. So while I think Mississippi State is a really good football team and poised to make improvements of their own in 2022, I think they are a bit overpriced coming into this one and if they don't play up to their full potential could easily lose this one outright. Give me Arizona +10.5! |
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09-10-22 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Boston College this Saturday. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Va Tech off their upset loss in Week 1, where they lost 17-20 at Old Dominion. It certainly wasn't the way new head coach Brent Pry wanted to start his tenure in Blacksburg, but it wasn't all bad. Pry, who came over after his great run as the DC at Penn State the past 6 years, had the Hokies defense ready to play. Virginia Tech held the Monarchs to just 249 total yards with just 165 thru the air and 84 on the ground. They lost the game because they committed 14 penalties for 100 yards and had 5 turnovers. Those mistakes can be corrected and playing at home in Week 2 should certainly help in that department. I played against BC in their opener, as I had Rutgers +7 and the Scarlet Knights won that game outright 22-21. The Eagles could only manage 312 total yards and were one dimensional with just 29 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The defense wasn't a whole lot better, as they let Rutgers come into their stadium and put up over 200 yards (5.0 yards/carry) against them. Eagles in my opinion are getting too much respect from the books and the public because they have a decent QB in Phil Jurkovec. There's just not enough talent around him for BC to be a real threat in the ACC and I especially see them struggling this year on the road. Give me the Hokies -2.5! |
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09-10-22 | Virginia v. Illinois -4.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 0 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Illinois Fighting Illini -4.5 I'll take my chances with Illinois laying 4.5 at home against Virginia. I'm really high on the Fighting Illini in 2022. They made massive improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema last year and I have all the confidence in him getting this team to a bowl game and pulling off an upset or two in the Big Ten this season. I had one of my strongest plays of the entire season on Illinois in Week Zero at home against Wyoming. I bet them at -10 roughly a month before the season even started and that one was never in doubt. The Fighting Illini won that game 38-6. I was tempted to go right back with them last week as a small dog against Indiana, but I felt it was going to be a bit of a tricky spot for them in their first true road game in a prime time Friday night matchup. It ended up being a good call, as Indiana won the game 23-20 on a late TD drive, but that's a game Illinois should have won. They outgained the Hoosiers 448 to 362 and dominated time of possession. They had 4 turnovers and were 0-2 on 4th down or they win that thing by double-digits. I believe that loss has created some value here with Illinois laying less than a touchdown against the Cavaliers. Virginia defeated Richmond 34-17 and put up over 505 total yards, but that's about how it should have gone. I know the Cavaliers return one of the top signal callers in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, but only 3 other starters were back on the offensive side of the ball. They lost all 5 starters on the defensive line and that's where I think the struggles will start for them against a talented Illinois front. On the flip side of this, I think Illinois' offense will be able to do as they please against this Virginia defense. The Cavaliers lost 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a defense that struggled in 2021, giving up 31.8 ppg and 466 ypg. Something else to note about that defense, is how bad they played on the road. In their 5 true road games they gave up a staggering 46.8 ppg and 563.4 ypg. As long as Illinois takes better care of the football and they should, I think they easily win this game by double-digits. Give me Illinois -4.5! |
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09-10-22 | Houston v. Texas Tech -3 | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3 I will take my chances with the Red Raiders as a slim 3-point home favorite against No. 25 ranked Houston in Week 2. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, it gets my attention, as the betting public will almost always take the points with the ranked team. It tells me the books really like what they see out of the favorite and I'm 100% on board with the books in this one. After struggling to put away FCS teams the past couple of seasons, Texas Tech opened the 2022 season with a 63-10 blowout win over Murray State. They lost starting quarterback Tyler Shough in that win, but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and played great. Smith went 14 of 16 for 221 yards and 4 scores. I'm expecting big things out of this offense under new offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who did a remarkable job last year turning around a Western Kentucky offense. The Hilltoppers only managed 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg in 2020. With Kittley calling the shots they improved to 44.2 ppg and 535 ypg. Not only am I high on Texas Tech coming into the season, I'm also down on the Cougars. They were extremely fortunate to win their opener at UTSA, as they trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before eventually winning 37-35 in 3OT. Cougars were outgained in that game 441 to 346. I look for Houston to have a hard time keeping pace with the Red Raiders on the road. Give me Texas Tech -3! |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 30 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Revenge PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 I'll take my chances with Tennessee as a 6.5-point road favorite against Pittsburgh on Saturday. This line might seem a bit off to some. The Panthers are No. 17 in the country and fresh off a big win at home against West Virginia, yet are an underdog at home against No. 24 Tennessee. I couldn't agree more with the line. In fact, I think it's a bit of a steal getting the Vols at less than a touchdown. It's why you can't pay too much attention to the rankings this early in the season. Too much of it is based on what a team did the previous year. I think when it's all said and done, the Vols will be at the very least a Top 15 and maybe even a Top 10 team, while I could see the Panthers struggling to stay in the Top 25. I know Pitt got a great addition at quarterback in USC transfer Kedon Slovis to offset the loss of one of their all-time best quarterbacks in program history in Kenny Pickett, but I don't see this team coming close to the 41.4 ppg and 487 ypg they put up last year. They put up 38 in the win over West Virginia, but only managed 384 total yards and the defense scored 7 of those 38 on a 56 yd interception returned for a TD. If they don't get that pick six, they probably lose that game. As for Tennessee, I think they are the verge of taking a massive step forward after shocking everyone in 2021, going 7-6 in the first year under head coach Josh Heupel. That was with the roster in complete turmoil going into the season. Now they got 15 starters back, including one of the SEC's best signal callers in Hendon Hooker, who sparked quite a turnaround for the Vols offense last year. Tennessee went from averaging 21.5 ppg and 346 ypg in 2021 to putting up 39.3 ppg and 475 ypg. They looked to be in midseason form in Week 1, as they put up 59 points and 569 yards in a blowout win over Ball State and that was them calling off the dogs after taking a 45-0 lead early in the 3rd quarter. The defense did give up 29.1 ppg and 422 ypg last year, but keep in mind some of that is a result of just how fast the play on offense. Not many teams are going to be equipped to keep pace. Give me the Vols -6.5! |
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09-10-22 | Missouri +8 v. Kansas State | 12-40 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 1 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Missouri Tigers +8 I will gladly take my chances with Missouri as a 8-point road dog against Kansas State. These two will renew their rivalry (known as the Border War), as they have not played since 2011. Always like getting a dog who I think can win outright in a rivalry game and not only are we getting points, we are getting over a touchdown. Kansas State really did what we expected in their opener, cruising to a 34-0 win against South Dakota. Usually a 34-point win would suggest a massive edge in total yards, but the Wildcats only outgained South Dakota 392 to 270. The even bigger thing that stands out to me is 297 of those yards came on the ground. K-State had just 95 passing yards. Maybe they didn't want to put anything on tape, but I think some of it just speaks to the limitations that Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez has throwing the ball. Missouri played a much tougher opponent in Louisiana Tech and won that game 52-24 with a 558 to 347 edge in total yards. Most of the damage for the Bulldogs came thru the air, as they had 336 yards passing. One thing to note is that while Missouri gave up a lot of yards, they did have 3 interceptions. They also held La Tech to just 11 rushing yards on 22 attempts. I don't think that's just them playing a bad team. Missouri added a lot up front. They brought in 4 transfers from Power 5 programs and a 2x FCS AA. Not to mention return one of the better SEC duos at DE in Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat. If Missouri's defense can hold their own, I like the offense to do enough to keep this thing close and give them a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. Give me Missouri +8! |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina v. Arkansas OVER 52.5 | Top | 30-44 | Win | 100 | 68 h 59 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5 I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +6.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Louisville Cardinals +6.5 I'll take my chances with Louisville covering the 6.5 on the road against UCF Friday night in Orlando. My only loser this past Saturday was on Louisville -4.5 at Syracuse and it wasn't close. The Orange ended up winning that game going away 31-7. With that said, Louisville did themselves no favors in that contest. Midway thru the 2nd quarter the Cardinals had 1st & Goal from the Syracuse 7 trailing 7-17. They ended up going for it on 4th down and failed to convert. They also had three straight possessions in the 2nd half with the game still within reach where they turned it over. The first two via interception and the other a fumble. The latter two of those turnovers resulting in the Orange scoring touchdowns on a short field to get to the final score of 31-7. It was about as bad as starting quarterback Malik Cunningham could play and you just have to wonder if there was a lack of respect from Louisville. Keep in mind they annihilated the Orange last year 41-3 late in the season. Not only do I think there's some value built into this line because of how bad it appears Louisville played last week, but also because of how good UCF looked. The Knights beat South Carolina State 56-10 with a ridiculous 600 to 91 edge in total yards. I think we are getting at least 3.5 points of value here, as my numbers make this UCF -3. Give me Louisville +6.5! |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams OVER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52 My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1. I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White. Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Clemson/Ga Tech MAX UNIT Top Play: Clemson Tigers -23 I'll take my chances with Clemson as a 23-point favorite against the Yellow Jackets in Monday's Labor Day standalone game. Last year was a down year for the Tigers and they still managed to win 10 games. There's a lot of people wondering where Clemson will go in 2022 after losing two of the best coordinators in the country. Not me. Dabo Swinney has done a remarkable job of hiring coordinators in his tenure at Clemson and I like both new OC Brandon Streeter and DC Wes Goodwin. The offense simply can't be as bad as it was last year and people forget that this is an offense that scored 30 or more in 5 straight games to close out the regular-season. Whether it's DJ Uiagalelei or freshman Cade Klubnik, I expect much better play from the quarterback position. It will help facing what may be the worst defense in the ACC in Georgia Tech, who returns just 3 starters from a unit that gave up 33.5 ppg and 455 ypg in 2021. I also don't think there's enough talk about this Clemson defensive line. It's as good a unit as they have had, right on par with that elite group from 2018. That front will be going up against a inexperienced Georgia Tech offense and a quarterback in Jeff Sims that is more a threat with his legs than his arm. This to me has blowout written all over it! Give me Clemson -23! |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oregon State Beavers -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Beavers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. Don't get me wrong, Boise State is one of the better teams in the Mountain West, but just because they got 17 returning starters I don't think it's a lock they are going to be this elite team that contends for a New Year's 6 bowl. Chris Petersen built quite the empire in Boise and they had a great hire to replace him in Bryan Harsin. I don't know if I feel the same way about 2nd year head coach Andy Avalos. Sure it was his first year, but he inherited a team that brought back 17 starters and only was able to muster a 7-5 record. Given all that, this is more a play on the Beavers at this price than anything. Oregon State was committed to the vision of head coach Jonathan Smith and it paid off with a 7-6 season in 2021. The first winning record for the Beavers since 2013. Smith and OC Brian Lindgren have really created a dynamic offensive attack and I think they could come close to replicating last year's team that finished with 31.2 ppg and 429 ypg. Defensively there is also a lot of optimism under new defensive coordinator Trent Bray, who sparked quite the turnaround after filling in as the interim DC last year after Tim Tibesar was let go. They got 9 starters back on that side of the ball and should be improved (allowed only 25.8 ppg and 387 ypg in 2021). If Oregon stumbles at all in the first year under new head coach Dan Lanning and Washington doesn't rebound like many are expecting, they could shock everyone and win the Pac-12 North. Give me the Beavers -2.5! |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Louisville Cardinals -4 I'll take my chances with the Cardinals as a mere -4 favorite on the road against Syracuse in Week 1. I just think the Orange are getting a little too much respect in this one. Yes this is a team that improved a ton in 2021 going from a 1-10 season in 2020 to just missing out on a bowl at 5-7. Most will just assume another step in the right direction with 17 returning starters. One of those being one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker. I just think the offense was a little too dependent on Tucker and teams started to figure them out down the stretch (scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5). They get back 8 starters on defense, but lose all 3 starters from a defensive line that was a huge strength last year. The other big thing for me is I really like the direction that Louisville is going under head coach Scott Satterfield. This was a team that had a very misleading 6-7 record in 2021. They had three different games where they lost on the final play. They also had a lead going in the 4th quarter of a loss at NC State. The Cardinals bring back 14 starters and might have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Malik Cunningham. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's also not far off. Cunningham threw for almost 3,000 yards with a 19-6 TD-INT ratio and led the team with 1,031 rushing yards, scoring 20 rushing TDs and averaging 6.0 yards/carry. Playing behind one of the best o-lines in the ACC, I could see Louisville scoring 40+ ppg. The defense is what really held this team back in 2021. It didn't helped they lost two of their better defenders to injury in linebacker Monty Montgomery and corner Kei'Trel Clark. I think they are going to be improved on all 3 levels. If they can contain Tucker and force Syracuse to throw more than they would like, this could really get ugly. Either way I like the Cardinals to cash. Give me Louisville -4! |
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09-03-22 | Arizona +6.5 v. San Diego State | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Arizona Wildcats +6.5 I'm willing to roll the dice with Arizona as a 6.5-pt road dog against San Diego State on Saturday. A lot of people are going to look at this line and without hesitation run to the ticket window to bet the Aztecs. Arizona is coming off a 1-11 season, while San Diego State is coming off a 12-2 campaign. What a lot of people don't realize is how much better this Wildcats team figures to be in 2022. A big part of that is the addition of transfer quarterback Jayden De Laura, who comes over from Washington State. He led the Pac-12 in both touchdowns (23) and passing yards (2,789) during the regular season. They also added a very talented transfer WR in UTEP's Jacob Cowing. They also got experience back on the offensive line and at running back. Defensively they got what I feel is a big upgrade at defensive coordinator. They got rid of Don Brown and replaced him with UCLA's Johnny Nansen, who played a big role in the Bruins defensive revival the past few seasons. As for San Diego State, they got some nice pieces and figure to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. I just think they are going to take a step back overall. Keep in mind they were on the right side of several close calls with 6 wins by 8 or fewer points. They also don't have the weapon that was punter Matt Araiza, who couldn't have made life any easier on that defense with how easily he could flip the field. Give me Arizona +6.5! |
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09-03-22 | Cincinnati v. Arkansas -6.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 I got no problem laying the 6.5 at home with the Razorbacks as they open up the 2022 season against Cincinnati. Arkansas had one of the most unlikely and remarkable one-year turnarounds in the country last year. The Razorbacks went just 3-7 in the shortened 2020 season, which was also the first under head coach Sam Pittman. Most had them picked to finish last in the SEC West. They instead went 9-4, which included a bowl win over Penn State, a non-conference thrashing of Texas (40-21) and a upset win over a Top 10 Texas A&M team (20-10). A big reason for the turnaround was the emergence of quarterback KJ Jefferson, who threw for 2,676 yards with a 21-4 TD/INT ratio and led the team with 664 rushing yards. With Jefferson back and the Razorbacks expected to field one of the best o-lines in the country, I could easily see them topping last year's 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg. There are some questions on the defensive side of the ball, where just 4 starters are back, but I like their defensive coordinator (Barry Odom). After having to make do with what was left over from the previous regime in 2020, Arkansas allowed just 22.9 ppg and 367 ypg in 2021. As for Cincinnati, I think it's time to sell-high after last year's playoff run. This isn't Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State or Clemson where they can just reload. Their not going to fall off a cliff either, but regression has to be expected. On offense the Bearcats lose not only their star quarterback in Desmond Ridder, but also their top rusher and receiver. Defensively they lost 6 guys to the NFL and are surely going to take not just a small step back but a pretty big one. Give me Arkansas -6.5! |
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09-03-22 | Rutgers +7 v. Boston College | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 52 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rutgers +7) I think we are getting some big time value with Rutgers catching a touchdown on the road against Boston College in Week 1. I think at the most the Eagles should be laying a field goal in this game. Greg Schiano doesn't get near the respect he deserves for how quickly he's got the Scarlet Knights turned around in his second stint with the program. Schiano took over a team that had won just 9 games in 4 seasons under previous head coach Chris Ash. They went just 3-6 in Schiano's first year, but improved to 5-8. While they are still a long way from the top of the Big Ten, they were a much more competitive team than they had been. They might still be another year away from really breaking out, but I don't see them reverting back in 2022, even with some of the pieces they lost. As for Boston College, I just think they are a bit overrated coming into 2022. A lot of people like to look at the QB position and what a team has coming back to make their assessment of how good the team will be. The Eagles have a guy that deservedly garners some respect in Phil Jurkovec. The problem I have is the offensive line. BC lost 4 of their 5 starters up front. Something I think could prove to be a real issue in this game, as Rutgers strength defensively is their defensive line. Give me the Scarlet Knights +7! |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado OVER 55 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 166 h 18 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55 I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -3 v. Purdue | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 28 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Penn St -3 I'm well aware of Purdue's track record as an underdog at home in big games, but I just have to take my shot with Penn State at -3 in this one. I think Purdue is getting way too much respect coming into this season after last year's 9-win campaign. While the Boilermakers return 14 starters, including quarterback Adan O'Connell, they lose their top 3 wide outs. One of those being their best offensive player in wideout David Bell. They also lose two of their best defensive players in linebacker Jaylan Alexander and defensive end George Karlaftis. I'm not saying Purdue will fall off a cliff like we saw with say Indiana last year, I just don't see them being as good. I also think Penn State might be one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Nittany Lions were ranked as high as #4 last year before starting quarterback Sean Clifford went down with an injury against Iowa. They lost a crazy 9OT game the next week against Illinois and lost the following time out against Ohio State. They later lost by 3 at home to Michigan and by 3 on the road at Michigan State. Of their 5 losses, 4 came against teams that were ranked in the Top 12 at the time they played them. Clifford is back and I think they are going to surprise some people on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they made a huge hire by bringing in Miami's Manny Diaz to be the new defensive coordinator. With the talent Penn State has on that side of the ball, I think that defense could be even better than the unit last year that only gave up 17.3 ppg. Give me Penn State -3! |
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois -10 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 502 h 7 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Illinois -10) I will gladly lay the -10 with Illinois at home against Wyoming in Week Zero. I don't think this Illini team is getting anywhere close to the respect they deserve. They made some pretty sizeable improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema's first year on the job in 2021. They won 5 games with 4 of those wins coming in Big Ten play. They could have been even better with 3 close losses. I think they are ready to take another big step forward in 2022. Last year they featured a strong running game, but offered little to no threat in the passing game. The ground game should be just as good and they brought in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. He's nothing special, but a huge upgrade over what they had. Illinois also brought in UTSA's Barry Lunney to be their new OC. He had the Roadrunners ranked in the Top 10 in the country last year in scoring. He's not only going to pick up the pace, but it should lead to a few more big plays. Wyoming is coming off a solid 7-6 season in 2021, but lose a lot from that team. They only have 8 starters back total (4 on each side of the ball). They will have to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and top 2 receivers on offense. They lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including their leader in Chan Muma, whose 142 tackles were 52 more than the next best on the team. I not only think the Illini cover the 10, but I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Illinois -10! |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4) I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game. Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score. On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4! |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7) I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary. They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7! |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Bills/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -1) I will gladly take my chances here with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at basically a pick'em at home against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown. Everyone has fallen in love with Josh Allen and the Bills after what they did to the Pats last week. Allen basically threw the equivalent of a perfect game in baseball. How many guys do you see throw perfect games in back-to-back games. I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Allen and company on the road against a much improved Chiefs defense. I know the Bills won at KC earlier this season, but that was back in Week 5. At that point the Chiefs were on pace to be one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history and the offense was struggling to do anything. Mahomes and the Chiefs have figured things out and this is the time of year where they play their best football. Crazy to think, but KC is going to have the chip on their shoulder with all this talk about Buffalo. Give me the Chiefs -1! |
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01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6) I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins. I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6! |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47.5 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bengals/Titans VEGAS INSIDER (Over 47.5) I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in Saturday's AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Bengals and Titans. I just don't think either of these defenses are going to be able to slow down the other side. I think Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense is peaking at the right time. They finished up the regular-season scoring 41 against Baltimore and 34 against KC before resting their starters in Week 18 against the Browns. They put up a respectable 26 last week against the Raiders in the Wild Card round, but that was about as bad an outcome they could have had. Cincinnati had to settle for 4 FGs and 3 of those were chip shots (35 yds or less). Titans defense put up some impressive numbers down the stretch, but a lot of that is who they played. Tennessee had about as easy a schedule as you could imagine in the 2nd half. Big reason why they were able to secure the No. 1 seed. On the flip side, you got Derrick Henry back for the Titans offense and he's up against a soft Bengals run defense. I do have some concerns about how effective Henry will be after the long break and coming off a pretty serious injury, but they don't call him the King for nothing.This is also not an elite Cincinnati defense. Titans can move the ball thru the air if they have to. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5) I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here. I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5! |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46.5 | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Eagles/Bucs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 46.5) I really like the UNDER at 46.5 for Sunday's Wild Card opener between the Buccaneers and the Eagles. I think both teams could have a real tough time moving the football. Tampa Bay is not the offense it was to start the year. The losses of Brown and Godwin are huge and for as much hate AB gets, there's no denying the impact he had when he was on the field. I also think not having Fournette is a much bigger deal than people realize. This is a game they really could have used him. With winds blowing at more than 20 mph straight down the field, the team going into the wind is really going to have to rely on running the ball. While running the football is what this Eagles offense is built around, this Buccaneers front when they are locked in, are arguably the toughest front in the league to run the football against. I just don't see where the offense is going to come from to get in the upper 40s. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER (Under 48.5) These two teams combined for just 45 points in their meeting during the regular season and they were lucky to get to that number. It was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter and 16-13 with just over 5 minutes to play. Neither team managed to eclipse 300 yards of total offense. Bengals had just 288 and the Raiders had 278. While both of these teams have quarterbacks who can throw the ball and some guys who can go get it, the problem is both of these offensive lines aren't very good. The defensive lines for both of these teams should dominate this game. Mother Nature also figures to play a role in keeping it a little lower scoring with temps expected to be below freezing and a slight cross wind. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - National Championship MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -2.5) I love Georgia laying less than a field goal against Alabama in the title game. I was pretty set on being on the Bulldogs in this game, as I knew there was going to be great value with Georgia after how badly they lost to Alabama in the SEC title game. What everyone overlooks with how the SEC title game played out, was the fact that the Bulldogs weren't nearly as invested in the outcome as Alabama. Winning a conference title would be a big deal for a lot of programs, but Georgia is to the point that all they care about is winning the whole thing. They have been so close and came up short. To them, it didn't matter if they won that game. This is the only game that matters. I think we saw the difference in energy and effort from Georgia in their semifinal game against Michigan. This Bulldogs team was the best in the country this year and I think that defense will be much better prepared for Bryce Young and the Alabama offense the second time around. Give me Georgia -2.5! |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3) I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end. I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play. Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards. The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game. I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -4) I will gladly take my chances with the Saints as a mere 4-point road favorite against the Falcons. New Orleans needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs, but it's definitely a possibility. The Saints need the 49ers to lose at the Rams and LA needs to win that game to lock up the NFC West and No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons aren't a very good team and in a really bad spot, having just watched their playoff hopes come to an end with last week's loss at Buffalo. I just don't see Atlanta being all that interested in this game and I also think that Falcons offense is in for a long day against a Saints defense that is really playing well down the stretch. Give me New Orleans -4! |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | 28-24 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Chiefs/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -11) I'm laying the big number with the Chiefs on the road against the Broncos. I get this is a division game and these two fanbases can't stand each other, but KC is the only team with something to play for, they are clearly the better team and they are decimated with injuries to close out the year. Denver won't have starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and while Drew Lock isn't horrible, he does tend to force some things and turn the ball over. Denver's defense will also have to try to contain Patrick Mahomes and the CHiefs high-powered offense without their two starting corners. Chiefs need to win this game to ensure they get at least the No. 2 seed and keep their slim hopes alive for that No. 1 seed (need Titans to lose at Texans). I really like how this team has been playing down the stretch, despite last week's slip up against the Bengals. I don't think this game is close for long. Give me KC -11! |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -3.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 82 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Texas Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -3.5) I don't see how you don't roll the dice on the Wildcats laying this short of number against LSU (I put this play in last week before the line moved a ton. I still like K-State up to -7). I just don't think we are going to get a great effort or showing out of LSU in this game. The Tigers are going to be led by offensive line coach Brad Davis. Does he really know how to get a team ready for a bowl game? If that wasn't going to be hard enough, LSU's starting quarterback, Max Johnson, won't play after entering the transfer portal. They are going to be potentially be sending out a freshman or even a walk-on to play the most important position. Kansas State on the other hand is expected to have their starting quarterback, Skylar Thompson back from an injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale. I also am a big fan of Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman. I'm confident he will have his team ready to go and keep in mind while LSU is down, it's a big deal for these other Power 5 teams when they get a shot at a top-tier program like the Tigers. Give me Kansas State -3.5! |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5) I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play. I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh. Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home. I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5! |
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01-02-22 | Cardinals v. Cowboys -5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -5) This feels like a massive square play, but I can't help myself. I just think there's some value here with the Cowboys laying less than a touchdown at home against the Cardinals. I was on Arizona in last week's loss at home to the Colts. I really thought we were going to see that team respond in a big way after that embarrassing loss to the Lions. Instead they can't beat a Colts team that lost 80% of their offensive line and best player on defense. I don't think people realize how hard it is for a team to compete with that much turnover in such a short period of time on the offensive line. To me the only think you can do right now is keep betting against the Cardinals, at least until they show us anything that makes you think they are the team we thought they were in their 7-0 start to the season. They remind me a lot of the Steelers team from last year, who had a bit of a fraudulent 11-0 start before ending the regular season 1-4 over their final 5 games. The other big thing for me is that I believe the Cowboys have got some of that swagger back offensively. If Dak doesn't get hurt and go through that midseason lull, the media wouldn't be able to stop talking about this unit. I also think they got a very underrated defense that has a lot of guys who are really good at getting after the quarterback. I think the Cowboys will be out to make a statement in what feels like their final tune-up before the postseason. I think if they lay a dud down the stretch, it's next week at Philly when maybe the rest some guys. Give me Dallas -5! |
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01-02-22 | Lions v. Seahawks UNDER 41.5 | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 41.5) I got no problem taking my chances with the UNDER 41.5 in Sunday's meaningless game between the Seahawks and Lions. Detroit's offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and Seattle has been no where close to efficient offensively as they have been in the past. Seahawks are only scoring 20.4 ppg, while the Lions are at 17.3 ppg and that drops to 14.9 ppg on the road. Detroit's not as bad defensively as you would expect for a team that is just 2-12, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 or fewer. Both defenses are going to get some help from Mother Nature in this game, as it's going to be miserable conditions to play offense in Seattle on Sunday. Not only is their 92% of precipitation, there's going to be close to 20 mph winds during this game. Both teams are going to be forced into running it a lot more than they would like, which will lead to fewer possessions and this game staying well below the number. Give me the UNDER 41.5! |
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01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (Under 46.5) I like the value we are getting with the UNDER at 46.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Rams and Ravens. Not to concerned with who starts at quarterback for Baltimore, I just think the conditions here are going to help keep this under the mark. While it's expected to be a modest 62 degrees in Baltimore for this game, there's a 50% of rain and most importantly it will be windy, with close to 20 mph blowing across the field throughout the game. That's going to make throwing the ball a lot harder, which really helps out the Ravens defense against this Rams offense. Baltimore's biggest problem defensively has been the inability of the secondary to cover. There just isn't going to be the same opportunities for the Rams offense in the passing game with that wind. Same goes for Baltimore, who would likely have a hard time moving the ball on this Rams defense in perfect conditions. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs -4 v. Bengals | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4) I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best. I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes. I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Utah/Ohio St ROSE BOWL MASSACRE (Utah +4.5) I've made a lot of profit fading teams like Ohio State in bowl games and will gladly fade the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl against what I think is an underrated and motivated Utah team. Ohio State went into their regular-season finale against Michigan knowing that if they won, they needed to just beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, which they would have, and they would be playing on New Years Eve in the College Football playoff. They aren't going to be excited about beating Utah. It's pretty evident they don't care with all the guys that opted out. On the flip side of this, the Utes are going to be extremely excited to solidify their Pac-12 title with a win over an elite program like Ohio State. Not to mention it's the first time they will be participating in the Rose Bowl under Kyle Winningham. With how much these bowl games comes down to who is the more motivated team, I not only think Utah covers, I like them to win the game outright. Give me the Utes +4.5! |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Citrus Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Iowa +3) I don't think Iowa should be catching points in this one, so this was really an easy call for me with them getting a field goal. The Hawkeyes laid an egg in the Big Ten title game against Michigan. They competed for about a half, but in the end just got beat by a much better team. I think if Wisconsin would have beat Minnesota and not allowed Iowa to backdoor into the Big Ten title game, the outlook would be a lot different on this team. I also don't think there's going to be any kind of letdown from losing that game, as that wasn't a win and make the playoff scenario. If anything, I believe it will leave a sour taste in their mouth and have them excited to play on New Years Day. The other big thing is the matchup. Iowa's biggest weakness is a quarterback that can attack their zone, especially if they have a big time talent at wide receiver. That's not Kentucky. The Wildcats are a very run heavy team. Slowing down the run game is what this Iowa defense does best and when they do that they tend to force turnovers in bunches. Don't be surprised if that Hawkeyes defense does just that in this game, as the Wildcats had 5 games this season where they had 3 or more turnovers. Iowa's top running back Tyler Goodson has opted out, but I don't think there's a huge drop off from him to the backups. Iowa has won and covered each of their last 3 bowl games, including a 27-22 win over Mississippi State in the 2018 Outback Bowl as a 7-point dog. Give me the Hawkeyes +3! |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame -1.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 572 h 60 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Fiesta Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Notre Dame -1.5) I really like the Irish laying less than a field goal against Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday. I'm usually a little skeptic on backing a team that lost their head coach, but Brian Kelly leaving for the job at LSU is not the end of the world. Notre Dame is in good hands with Marcus Freeman and these players seem to really enjoy playing for him. I also think this Notre Dame team is one of the most underrated teams in the country to end the year. The only blemish on the schedule for the Irish was a 13-24 loss to Cincinnati, who is in the 4-team playoff. This team closed out the season outscoring their final 4 opponents 131 to 21. The Irish will have to go to battle without running back Kyren Williams, but I don't think they need to be prolific offensively to win here by at least a field goal. The Notre Dame defense figures to make life miserable for a very average Oklahoma State offense. I'm not a big fan of quarterback Spencer Sanders. I also question how motivated the Cowboys are for this game. While they probably wouldn't of made it had they won, they went into their Big 12 title game against Baylor with an outside shot of making the 4-team playoff. Any time a team comes that close to the playoffs and doesn't get the invite, I don't know that there's any bowl game that will have them really excited to play. Give me the Irish -1.5! |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Georgia/Michigan ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia -7.5) Hats off to John Harbaugh for finally getting Michigan over the hump and into the 4-team playoff, but I'm not as bullish on the Wolverines chances in the playoffs as others. I just think with how good Michigan looked in the win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale and against Iowa in the Big Ten title game, combined with how bad Georgia looked against Alabama in the SEC title game, it's got everyone wanting to take Michigan and the points. I don't really get it. Prior to losing to Alabama, most had Georgia on a pedestal above the rest of the teams. Everyone was on them to win and cover against the Crimson Tide. What everyone overlooked in that game, was the fact that it didn't mean near as much to the Bulldogs as it did Alabama. Win or lose Georgia was in the playoffs. Alabama had to win. I think it was a good loss for the Bulldogs, as it will have them refocused and ready to go in the playoffs. I also love the matchup here, especially for the Georgia defense. Michigan wants to attack you on the ground and that's just not how you attack this Bulldogs defense. They gave up 82 ypg and 2.6 ypc in a really good SEC. Wolverines don't have a Bryce Young at quarterback or near the talent at wide receiver that Alabama had. Give me the Bulldogs -7.5! |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Alabama/Cincinnati ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati +13.5) Everyone is going to be on Alabama after how impressive they looked in their win over Georgia. I got to take the points with Cincinnati. I just don't think people take into account the level of motivation for Alabama and Georgia in the SEC title game. The Crimson Tide had to win to get in, where the Bulldogs work had already been done. They knew win or lose they were in the 4-team playoff and with no home field advantage that's really all that mattered. You could just see it in the play. Georgia just wasn't themselves on either side of the ball. Cincinnati's defense may not be elite, but it's really good and when it's mattered the most this year they have showed up in a big way. They also got a brilliant defensive mind in Luke Fickell as their head coach. I think they can make it somewhat difficult for Bryce Young, who is down a big weapon in wideout John Metchie. The other thing that I think gives the Bearcats a chance is they got a quarterback who can make plays when they need it. Desmond Ridder threw for over 3,000 yards with a 30-8 TD-INT ratio. Cincinnati also has a back in Jerome Ford, who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 19 TDs. You also got to love that Cincinnati is the team with nothing to lose in this thing. No one is giving them a shot. This team has overcome so much to get to the 4-team playoff. I think it makes them a dog with a serious bite. Give me the Bearcats +13.5! |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State OVER 55.5 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Peach Bowl Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5) I think with the news that Kenny Pickett won't play for Pitt and Kenneth Walker will sit out for Michigan State, has created some value with the OVER at just 55.5. I still think there is going to be a lot of offense and wouldn't be shocked at all if they went over the original total of 63. I think people just assume a team is going to implode when they lose a talent like Pickett at quarterback, but I got a lot of faith in backup Nick Patti to step in and have a big game. Patti has performed well when he's got a chance. The even bigger thing is the defense he will be up against. Michigan State's secondary is atrocious. They gave up 338 yards/game thru the air this year. Walker was a big part of the Spartans offense, but less running is good thing when you are taking an OVER and with star wideout Jalen Nailor expected back from a hand injury, I think Michigan State is going to be able to move the football and put up their fair share of points. Give me the OVER 55.5! |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Music City Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6) I will happily lay the 6-points with the Volunteers as they take on Purdue in the Music City Bowl on Thursday. I was leaning towards taking the Vols when the bowl matchups were announced and it really caught my attention when it was learned that Boilermakers star wideout David Bell and star defensive end George Karlaftis were both going to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Those are two massive losses. Easily the best player on each side of the ball. Bell had 93 catches for 1,286 yards and his loss will really magnify the Boilermakers lack of a running game. Losing a guy like Karlaftis impacts the entire defense, as you just don't have that relentless pressure on the opposing QB. I also think there's a lot to like about this Tennessee team. Not many were even picking the Vols to be good enough to make a bowl game this year and yet first year head coach Josh Heupel got them to 7-5. Three of those losses were to Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, the other two were to Pitt and on the road against Florida before their season derailed. I think there will be a lot of motivation for Heupel and this team to cap off this first season with a bowl win and really get things going in the right direction for next year. Give me the Vols -6! |
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12-29-21 | Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Pinstripe Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -3.5) We definitely missed the better number with the Terps, but I'm done betting games early until we stop seeing teams decimated by COVID. I still think there's more than enough value here with Maryland at -3.5. Virginia Tech is an absolute mess going into this game. Not only are they operating under an interim head coach after firing Justin Fuente, but they got multiple key players not playing. The Hokies will be down to 3rd string quarterback Connor Blumrick after starter Braxton Burmeister and backup Knox Kadum both left for the transfer portal. Blumrick attempted just 16 passes during the season and completed just 43.8% with an anemic 2.6 average. He won't have top wide out Tre Turner or talented guard Lecitus Smith, who both opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They also had 3 more of their top defenders opt out to prepare for the NFL. On the flip side, I think Maryland is really excited to be in a bowl game. It's the first they have made under head coach Mike Locksley and this program hasn't won a bowl game since beating ECU back in the 2010 Military Bowl. Give me the Terps -3.5! |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota -4 | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 152 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Guaranteed Rate Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota -4) I'm going to take Minnesota -4 against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday. I think this Gophers team went into bowl prep riding a huge wave of momentum, as they closed out the season with a 23-13 win over No. 14 Wisconsin. A victory that kept the Badgers out of the Big Ten title game. The one big change for the Gophers following that game was the decision of P.J. Fleck to fire offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr.. Normally I would see this as a negative, but it's not like this Minnesota offense was doing anything on that side of the ball. A change could really help them. It's worth noting that the new offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who was the offensive analyst for West Virginia this season. Ciarrocca also has some ties to this program, as he was the OC/QB coach here from 2017 to 2019. While wide receivers coach Matt Simon will serve as the OC in the bowl, you have to wonder if Ciarrocca will be willing to give Fleck and his staff the book on the Mountaineers offense and how to best defend what they do. Either way West Virginia will have to play in the bowl game without one of their top offensive weapons, as running back Leddie Brown, who rushed for 1,065 yards and 13 scores, has opted out. No other player on the team had more than 300 rushing yards and the next best running back was sophomore Tony Mathis with a mere 256 yards. Not to mention the Gophers D was balling to close out the season. In Minnesota last 7 games they allowed just 17.3 ppg, while giving up only 151.7 passing yards/game and 116.7 rushing yards/game. Not saying it will be a blowout, but I feel confident the Gophers can win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -4! |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3) I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those. You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -6.5 v. Nevada | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Quick Lane Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (W Michigan -6.5) Have to roll the dice with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl. I just don't know how you can expect much out of this Wolf Pack team given what they will have to work with. Star quarterback Carson Strong is sitting out, as is stud tight end Cole Turner. It also doesn't seem like they will have wide out Romeo Doubs and wide outs Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart both went into the transfer portal. So did starting right guard Gray Davis, starting left tackle Jacob Gardner, 2nd-Team linebacker Daiyan Henley and corner A.J. King. That's just the players. Head coach Jay Norvell left for the Colorado State job. He took with him the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, wide receivers coach, tight ends coach and special teams coach. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for the same job at Washington State. Give me Western Michigan -6.5! |
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12-26-21 | Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value here with the Bears as a 6.5-point road dog against the Seahawks. Seattle has no business laying this kind of number in this spot. The Seahawks just had their playoff hopes put to rest in last week's 10-20 loss at the Rams. Even if they win out, the best they can do is 8-9. I could definitely see this team throwing in the towel given all they have gone through this year. It also feels like it's the end of an era in some way for Seattle. Hard to believe that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be back. Some might see Chicago starting Nick Foles as a bad thing, but I'm not so sure Foles shouldn't have been the guy from the start. Andy Dalton gives you next to nothing and Fields isn't quite ready. More than anything, the quarterback play can't be much worse. Give me the Bears +6.5! |
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12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vikings +3) I'll take the 3-points with the Vikings at home, as they get ready to host the Rams on Sunday. I just think Los Angeles is bit overvalued coming into this game, as I think this line should be closer to a pick'em. I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but this Vikings team deserves to better than 7-7. Every single one of their losses have come by 8 points or less with 5 of them coming by 4 or fewer. A few bounces go the other way and they could easily be sitting here with the same record as these Rams and in that scenario they certainly wouldn't be a dog at home. I also don't love the spot for LA. While the Vikings are on a short week of rest after playing Monday, the Rams are only going to have 4 days to prepare for this game and it's really only 3 when you figure in the travel. On top of that, it's an early window game, which is always tough on west coast teams that have to travel east across multiple time zones. I know the Rams are still trying to get that No. 1 seed, but it's not like they can feel great about catching Green Bay. While they are just 1-game back of the Packers in the standings, their head-to-head loss to the Packers means they have to make up 2 games with 3 to play. Minnesota is clearly the more desperate team in this game, as they are currently tied with the Eagles and Saints for the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Rams are just 3-11 ATS since McVay took over after 3 or more consecutive wins and just 2-9 ATS when coming off 2 or more straight wins the last two seasons. Give me the Vikings +3! |
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12-26-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3) This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7. Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points! |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1) I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games. I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week. As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding. I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1! |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Camellia Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia St -5.5) This is a game I originally wasn't going to play, but after talking it over with Jack Jones on the SportsCapping Podcast (he gave it out as a free play), I really think it's a strong play. You have the Sun Belt vs the MAC. The Sun Belt has been a great conference to back in these bowl games and the MAC has been one of the best to fade. Georgia State comes in at 7-5, but they were playing more like a 8 or 9 win team coming into this game. They closed out the season winning 6 of their final 7 games. They had a big upset win over Coastal Carolina during this run as a double-digit dog and only lost by 4 on the road against the Sun Belt's best team in Lafayette. As for Ball State, this is a team that was suppose to be better than they were, but it just never came together for the Cardinals in 2021. I don't think they are going to magically figured it out in this bowl game and wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a bit of a blowout. Give me Georgia State -5.5! |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Titans +3.5) I got to take the Titans at +3.5 at home against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. I know Tennessee has fallen off quite a bit since losing Henry, but they have actually ran it pretty well without their big horse. Titans had over 200 yards on the ground in their last game against the Steelers and 270 a couple of games back against the Pats. I also think it's HUGE for that Titans offense to get back their go-to-guy on the outside in wide out A.J. Brown. Tennessee is also not an easy place to play and these home teams have quite a big edge in these Thursday Night games. Give me the Titans +3.5! |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Frisco Classic Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (North Texas +2.5) I'm going to take the 2.5 with the Mean Green as they take on Miami (OH) in the Frisco Classic Bowl in Frico, Texas. We have seen this line move in favor of North Texas, but I don't think it's moved enough, as I think the Mean Green should be favored. The MAC is awful and have just not performed well in bowl games when they get matched up with equal or better talent from other FBS conferences. I just don't know what the books see in this RedHawks team. On the flip side, North Texas is a team that closed out the regular-season on fire. The Mean Green were sitting at 1-6 going into a late Oct. game against Rice. They won that game 30-24 in OT and never looked back, closing out the year on a 5-game winning streak, which they concluded with a 45-23 blowout win over then No. 22 ranked UTSA. This North Texas team has quite the ground game. They averaged 246 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry for the season, but it only got better. They put up over 320 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, including 340 against the Roadrunners in the finale. I like good running teams in bowl games, as it's a lot easier for them offensively to get back into a rhythm after not playing for an extended stretch. Miami (OH) wasn't great against the run and in their last game they gave up 303 rushing yards to Kent State. Give me the Mean Green +2.5! |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army OVER 53 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Frisco Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St -2.5) I'm going to lay the 2.5 with the Aztecs against the Roadrunners in the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday. This is a big game for San Diego State, as they try to win 12 games for the first time in school history. A mark they wanted to hit in the Mountain West title game, but weren't able to because a rash of Covid spread through the team. While there weren't a ton of key guys out, the Aztecs weren't able to get any good reps in practice in that week. On the flip side of this, UTSA seems to be satisfied with what they have accomplished, finishing the season 12-1, capped by a 49-41 win over WKU in the C-USA title game. Multiple guys are sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL, including one of the nation's best backs in Sincere McCormick. I also like the matchup here. UTSA is still going to want to run the football without McCormick and this is not the defense to run against. San Diego State only gave up 78 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. They were also great at defending mobile quarterbacks and getting out of the pocket and scrambling is a huge part of Roadrunners' quarterback Frank Harris' game. It's going to take a monster game from Harris for UTSA to put points on the board. I'll take my chances he doesn't have a monster a game and lay the short number here. Give me the Aztecs -2.5! |
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12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 17-27 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 42) I'm going to take the UNDE 42 in Tuesday's NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Football Team. I just don't see either team doing a whole lot offensively in this game. While we are still waiting to see who is going to play for Washington, we know they are going to have most of their defensive line in tact and this is a unit that has been outstanding against the run. Philly also loves to run the ball and I don't think they are going to feel the need to force the pass game with how much the Football Team is going to struggle offensively. Washington's top two QBs, Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen didn't travel with the team. Both do have until 4 pm to get cleared to play, but it seems a bit unlikely. Football Team is also going to be missing two starting offensive linemen, backup running back J.D. McKissic and wideout Curtis Samuel. You also got to factor in the lack of practice time this team has had, even with the game getting moved back. Give me the UNDER 42! |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3) I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well. Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3! |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion UNDER 54 | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Myrtle Beach Bowl NO-BRAINER (Under 54) I like the UNDER in the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Tulsa and Old Dominion. I just don't see a shootout in this game. These are two teams that offensively want to run the football and both will be up against a couple of solid run defenses. Tulsa only gives up 3.9 yards/carry, which is really impressive given they have played Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma State. ODU only gives up 3.5 yards/carry, which is almost a 0.5 yard under what their opponents average. All this running is going to lead to some long empty possessions that either lead to no points or a field goal, which is exactly what we want. Give me the UNDER 54! |
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12-19-21 | Panthers +11 v. Bills | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Panthers +11) As difficult as it is to back the Panthers given how much I've been burned by Carolina this season and the ridiculous rate at which these big favorites have been covering the last two weeks, there's no way I'm not playing the Panthers at this price. It's not so much that I'm really big on Carolina. More than anything, this is a play against the Bills. I want to start out by saying, I was on this Buffalo downfall from the start. With last week's loss to the Bucs we at worst will push our win total bet on the Bills UNDER 11. I'd love to see it here, but I think we will get it for next week when they go to Foxborough to face the Patriots. Speaking of that game, it's part of why I like this spot for the Panthers. Buffalo is coming off two massive games with that monster game on deck. Two weeks ago they hosted the Pats on MNF in a wind storm and last week went on the road and lost a heartbreaker to Tom Brady and the Bucs 27-33 in OT. Also, while I think the experts can see the flaws in this Buffalo team, the betting public still thinks they are great and in their minds this is the perfect bounceback spot for the Bills against a struggling Panthers team. Which is why I think we are seeing the inflated number here. I also think the books really want to push the envelope on these big favorites given how many have covered the last two Sunday's. I know Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have been a mess the last two games, but it's been more about turnovers than anything, as they have coughed it up 3 times in each of their last two games. I'm banking that we will see some regression in that area this week against a Bills defense that has regressed a ton of late and forced just 2 turnovers total in their last 4 games combined. I also love the matchup for the Panthers defense. Carolina's ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a mere 177.7 ypg. It's really a nightmare matchup for this Bills offense that really has no desire to run the football. Give me the Panthers +11! |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -113 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) -Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -3.5) As soon I heard that Urban Meyer was being fired from the Jaguars, I couldn't place my bet fast enough on them to cover at home against the Texans on Sunday. I think it's pretty safe to say that Meyer had lost that lockerroom and I'm not really sure he ever had it. There's no question that he rubbed several of the players and coaches the wrong way. It's going to be like a breath of fresh air for this team to go to work and not have to see his face. I think it's going to translate into by far the best showing the Jags will have had this season and lucky for them they get to take out their frustration on a horrible team like the Texans. Houston is a team the Jags could have beat and covered against despite Meyers. Keep in mind not only have the Jags had to deal with all of Myers crap, they have played a brutal schedule. Give me Jacksonville -3.5! |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1) I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report. Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1! |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +117 v. Colts | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Pats/Colts Saturday Night ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +117) I'm not saying Mac Jones is going to be the next Tom Brady, but this 2021 Patriots team reminds me so much of the Patriots teams' from Brady's early days in New England, where they won Super Bowl because of Belichick and the defense and not Brady's arm. Few teams covered more games during that stretch than the Pats. New England comes into this game having won and covered 7 straight games. A big reason for that is Jones figured out how to take care of the ball. Patriots had 11 turnovers during their 2-4 start and have just 5 total over their 7 game win streak. They are extremely physical on both sides of the ball and the only team to hold them under 100 yards rushing all season was the Bucs back in Week 4. So while the Colts run defense is solid, the Pats will control the line of scrimmage on offense. I also think you are crazy if you think Belichick is going to let Jonathan Taylor beat him. He's going to live with Carson Wentz having to dissect coverages and let's not forget he's had two full weeks to gameplan for this game. This line should have never flipped. Give me the Pats on the money line! |