50* NFL --AFC Game of the Month-- (Broncos +3)

I believe the Patriots perfect season is going to come crashing to an end this week against the Broncos, much like it did for Green Bay when they visited Denver for a prime time Sunday Night Football matchup a few weeks back. As good as Tom Brady has been and he's been very good, the injuries to the skill positions are going to be too much for even him to overcome against an elite Denver defense. I'm also a big fan of Osweiler and what he brings to the table. He's not going to put up huge numbers, but I think he's smart with the football and won't turn it over. Given how Manning was playing, he's not a downgrade like so many people think and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he shined in this game. Give me the Broncos +3! 

50* NFL --Thanksgiving Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Cowboys +1)

It's highly unlikely the Panthers are going to finish the season undefeated and I believe their perfect run comes to an end on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. The Cowboys snapped a 7-game losing streak with a 24-14 win at Miami, which to no surprise came with the return of Tony Romo at quarterback. I firmly believe that if Romo had not got injured, we would be talking about Dallas being one of the elite teams in the NFC right now. The Cowboys should be at a minimum a 3-point home favorite against the Panthers. Carolina has played an easy schedule and most of their tough games have come at home. Now they get a huge road test on a short week of rest. I look for Romo and the Cowboys talented offensive line to have more than enough success here to come away with a win, as their defense is poised to make life miserable for Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. Give me the Cowboys +1! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Bills +7.5)

I know the Patriots had their way against the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season, but this is a much different New England offense this time around. The Patriots have lost two huge pieces of their passing game in wide out Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis. They are also dealing with some injuries up front on the offensive line. I look for this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, which makes the 7.5-points that much more valuable. Rex Ryan knows a thing or two about how to slow down Tom Brady and given the current state of the Patriots I think the Bills have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. Give me Buffalo +7.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Broncos -1)

I think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with the Broncos coming off that ugly loss to the Chiefs at home, which saw Peyton Manning end the game on the sideline. People are acting like the Broncos lost an elite quarterback, but in reality Manning was one of the worst in the league this year. Brock Osweiler is a much better fit for Kubiak's offense and I look for him to surprise against a soft Bears defense. Speaking of defense, Denver has the best stop unit in the league and they are going to come out extremely motivated after last week's poor performance. I think Denver wins here convincingly against an overrated Bears team that has been playing better of late but against bad teams. Give me the Broncos -1! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron MNF Top Play-- (Texans +11)

The Bengals are way overvalued right now and I look for them to struggle to put away the Texans on Monday Night Football. Houston has a big advantage here coming off their bye and I look for them to play one of their best games of the season tonight. Cincinnati struggled to put away the Browns with Manziel at quarterback in Week 9 and have been fortunate to start out 7-0-1 ATS. Houston's defense has played well against the pass and that's been the strength of the Bengals offense in 2015. Defensively, Cincinnati isn't as good as you would think. They are giving up 4.9 yards/carry and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their attempts. Give me the Texans +11! 

50* NFL --SNF Total of the Month-- (UNDER 44.5)

I don't see a whole lot of value here with the spread, but I absolutely love the value we are getting with this total set at 44.5. I think there's a ton of value here with the UNDER. While Seattle's offense has struggled, their defense has been very good since Kam Chancellor returned to the lineup. I expect the Seahawks stop unit to deliver a big time performance here at home in a nationally televised game. At the same time, I don't think Seattle's offense snaps out of their funk against the Cardinals. These two division rivals have a history of low-scoring games when playing in Seattle. In fact, 6 of the last 7 have gone UNDER the total and the last two have seen combined scores of 27 and 22 points. It only adds value here that both teams are coming off a bye. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Rams -6.5)

St Louis lost in overtime last week at Minnesota 18-21, while the Bears pulled off the upset at San Diego on Monday Night Football. Chicago has covered 4 of their last 5 and may appear to be an attractive team to back catching almost a touchdown. I don't think that will be the case at all. I look for the Bears to come out flat playing on short rest and the offense to really struggle here against a Rams defense that is allowing just 13.7 ppg at home. Chicago's defense is allowing 4.8 yards/carry against the run on the road and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Bears will have no answer for Gurley and that's going to open up some opportunities for Nick Foles to take advantage of a weak Chicago secondary. Give me the Rams -6.5! 

50* NFL --MNF Gridiron Total Top Play-- (UNDER 49.5)

This would be an okay total if both teams were coming into this game at 100%, but that's not the case at all. Each is missing star players. Chicago will be without running back Matt Forte, who is not only their leading rusher but a huge part of the passing game. San Diego will be without wide out Keenan Allen, who has been Rivers' go-to guy. I look for these injuries to play a big role in the red zone, as I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. Give me the UNDER 49.5! 

50* NFL --AFC Game of the Year-- (Steelers -4.5)

Not only do I think the Steelers are the much stronger team, but we find Oakland in a really bad spot here. The Raiders will be hitting the road for a long trip out east for an early start time and are primed for a letdown after back-to-back blowout wins over the Chargers and Jets. Pittsburgh on the other hand will be extremely motivated off back-to-back losses. Steelers offense should have no problem moving the ball here against a Raiders defense that will be lagging behind and Pittsburgh's defense should be able to keep Oakland's offense in check. Underdogs who are giving up 24 or more points/game after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight are 11-34 (24%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Steelers -4.5! 

50* NFL --Browns/Bengals Total Crusher-- (Over 45.5)

The perception here is the Browns won't be able to score with Manziel at quarterback, but I don't think there's as big a drop off from McCown to Manziel as most people think. I look for Cleveland to provide their fair share of points in this one and that should have this game flying over the total. Cincinnati's offense is loaded with weapons at the skill positions and the Browns are awful defensively. They can't stop the run and their secondary is depleted with injuries to corner Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner. It's not out of the question the Bengals cover this total on their own. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Colts +7)

While Carolina has got off to a surprising 7-0 starts, the Panthers have played one of the easiest schedules of any team in the league. Not a single one of their 6 wins have come against a team that currently has a winning record. I know the Colts are sitting at 3-4 right now, but this team is clearly capable of more and have a top level quarterback in Andrew Luck, who will be the best signal caller Carolina has faced in terms of his ability to throw the football. We saw the Colts play extremely well against the Patriots in a prime time game a couple weeks ago and I expect this team to show up and at worst keep this game close. Give me the Colts +7! 

50* NFL --NFC Total of the Month-- (Over 49)

I look for both offenses to have a lot of success in this one, as we have two of the better quarterbacks in the league going up against two defenses that are not playing well inside the perfect conditions of the Superdome. The Giants are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their passes, which is a nightmare scenario against Drew Brees and the Saints are giving up 4.9 yards/carry and 7.9 yards/pass attempt. Over is 6-2 in the Giants last 8 against the NFC, 6-2-1 in the Saints last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with the lowest combined score during this stretch being 73 points. Give me the OVER 49! 

50* NFL --MNF Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 48.5)

I don't think the books have set the mark high enough for this matchup. The Ravens come into this one with the 9th ranked offense and are 10th in the league in passing at 258.3 ypg. Arizona has the 4th ranked offense and 6th ranked passing attack at 284.2 ypg. Both teams will be looking to throw the ball early and often, which should lead to a lot of big plays and quick scoring drives. It also figures to lead some turnovers, which should also lead to some quick scores. Baltimore's defense has allowed at least 25 or more points in 4 of their last 5, while Arizona has scored 40+ points 3 times this season and are averaging 33.3 ppg at home. OVER is 9-3-1 in Ravens last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-1 in the Cardinals last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the OVER 48.5!

50* NFL --NFC East Total of the Month-- (UNDER 46)

These two teams combined for 53 points in the Cowboys 27-26 miracle win at home in Week 1. The total for that game was 52 and now we see these two teams facing off in the rematch at New York with a total of 46. I don't believe 6 points is a big enough adjustment, given what Dallas has lost offensively and what they have gained defensively. At the same time, we can expect max effort here from the Giants defense coming off that ugly loss to Philadelphia and wanting revenge from the game they gave away at AT&T Stadium earlier this year. You also have to factor in playing outdoors compared to playing in the dome in Dallas. I think these two teams will be lucky to score 20 points a piece. Give me the UNDER 46!

50* NFL --AFC West Game of the Month-- (Chargers -3.5)

The Chargers are a much better team than their 2-4 record would indicate and could very easily be 5-1 or at least 4-2 if a couple plays go their way. Two of their 4 losses have come against the undefeated Bengals and Packers and they were right there against both of those teams. Philip Rivers and the offense is as good as it's been in years and the defense is better than what we saw last week against Green Bay. With the perception that Oakland is much improved and the fact they are coming off a bye, I believe it's created some great value here on the much better San Diego team. Give me the Chargers -3.5!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Annihilator-- (Under 42)

In previous seasons this matchup would have me looking to back the under, but these are not the same two dominant defenses from years past. The 49ers are clearly not the same with all the players they lost in the offseason, to go along with the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh. Seattle's still got a lot of the same players on defense, but I think they are really missing the guidance of former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. We have already seen the 49ers give up 30+ points in 3 games this season and Seattle's offense is certainly capable of putting up a big number here. The Seahawks defense just allowed 27 points at home to the Panthers and aren't typically as strong on this side of the ball on the road. I also expect Seattle to take advantage of Kaepernick's poor decision making and create some turnovers that lead to quick scores. I see this being a 27-17 type of game with the potential to creep up towards 50. Give me the OVER 42!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Eagles -4.5)

The Giants are dealing with numerous injuries on both sides of the ball and I look for them to have a difficult time keeping pace with the Eagles on the road. Philadelphia got their offense going in the right direction in last week's 39-17 blowout win at home over the Saints and I look for that to carry over the rest of the season. Philadelphia won both meetings last year against New York, including a 27-0 home win and 34-26 win at New York. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings the Eagles scored 27+ points against the Giants. With New York's lack of a pass rush, I look for Bradford to have a big day throwing the ball and Philadelphia's tempo should wear down the defense and let the running game take over in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5!

50* NFL --NFC North Game of the Month-- (Lions -3)

Detroit comes into this game as the only winless team in the league at 0-5, but this is far from the worst team in the league. The Lions had an absolutely brutal schedule to start the year. They opened with back-to-back road games against Sand Diego and Minnesota, had to host Peyton Manning and the Broncos in a nationally televised game, lost a heartbreaker on the road at Seattle on MNF and then had to play a motivated Arizona team coming off a loss on short rest. I don't think there's any doubt they are undervalued at home as a mere 3-point favorite against the Bears. Chicago has looked better the last couple of weeks, but that was against the Raiders and Chiefs. I actually think the Bears are the much worse team here and could just as easily be 0-5 themselves. Give me the Lions -3! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron ATS Annihilator-- (Saints +4)

The Falcons have started out an impressive 5-0 to open the season, but I just don't trust this team on the road playing with short rest. Atlanta has had to overcome 4th quarter deficits in 4 of their 5 wins. No other team in NFL history has started 5-0 having to come from behind in the 4th quarter 4 times. The Saints are clearly not as good as people had anticipated, but have been competitive in 3 of their 4 losses. They were embarrassed last time out at Philadelphia, which is going to have them extremely motivated here at home in a prime time game. Brees and the offense will be able to pick apart an overrated Atlanta defense and with Julio Jones not at 100% the Saints defense should be able to make enough stops here to keep it close enough to cover and potentially win outright. Give me New Orleans +4!

50* NFL -MNF Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 46)

The Steelers are trying to make do offensively with Michael Vick right now. While he's capable of keeping Pittsburgh in the playoff hunt, this will not be the same explosive high-powered offense that it was with Roethlisberger. The Steelers are going to rely more on their running game and defense to win games until Big Ben is back and have been playing much better defensively than they get credit for. They should have no problem keeping a injury-deplete San Diego offense in check. This is simply too many points given the circumstances both offenses are facing. Give me the Under 46!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Rams +10)

The Packers are right there with the Patriots as the biggest public bet team in the NFL and with them being 4-0 ATS the books have no choice here but to inflate this line to where they feel confidence the Rams can cover. I certainly think St Louis can keep this within double-digits. The Rams are a better team now than they were just a couple weeks ago, as they have added a whole new dynamic to their offense with Todd Gurley. He played a huge part in their win on the road against a very good Arizona team last week and I expect him to have another big day here against the Packers. I just don't see the Packers matching the Rams intensity in this one, as Green Bay is coming off 3 straight big games. They played Seattle on SNF in Week 2, Kansas City on MNF in Week 3 and had a huge revenge game last week at SF (long travel). I don't think an upset is out of the question, but I fully expect a 4 quarter game. Give me St Louis +10!

50* NFL --Colts/Texans Total No Brainer-- (Over 40.5)

It's been made official that Luck will not be playing against the Texans and as a result the total has dropped 3-points, I believe it's created some great value here on the OVER, as I still think the Colts offense will be able to move the ball against the Texans. Houston's defense hasn't been very good and Indy has a savy veteran backup in Matt Hasselbeck, who showed he still has something left in the tank. Hasselbeck went 30 of 47 for 282 yards against the Jaguars. Houston's offense hasn't been great to start the year, but that's a direct result of the injury to star running back Arian Foster. He returned last week and should get a much bigger workload here. Colts defense is decimated with injuries and just gave up 431 yards last week to a below average Jacksonville offense. These two teams also have a history of high-scoring games when they face off in Houston, with each of the last 10 meetings seeing at least 41 points. Give me the OVER 40.5!

50* NFL --Gridiron ATS Annihilator-- (Lions +10)

This is a lot of points for the Seahawks to be laying at home against a motivated Lions team that will be trying to save their season with a win. Seattle is a difficult place to play, especially in primetime, but the Seahawks are expected to be without the focal point of their offense in Marshawn Lynch. Seattle's offense hasn't been very good to start the season and I think it will be hard for them to create a big enough gap to cover this spread. The Lions have been competitive and played a brutal schedule to start the year. They opened with two road games against the Chargers and Vikings and they had to play Peyton Manning and the Broncos at home. Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against team who average 3 or fewer yards/carry. Give me Detroit +10!

50* --NFL Total of the Month-- (Over 43)

The perception here is that these are two dominant defensive teams, which has created some exceptional value here with total at just 43 points. Arizona's 3-0 start is more a result of their offense than their defense at the same time, I don't think the Rams are as strong defensively as it looks on paper. St Louis has a lot of talent up front, but the secondary isn't great. Carson Palmer will be able to expose the Rams secondary and should be able to put up at least 27 points here. I believe the Rams can give us at least 17 if not more, as I see there offense only improving with Gurley getting more and more carries. These two combined for 45 in Arizona last year and the OVER is 11-2 in Cardinals last 13 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games. Give me the OVER 43!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron ATS Annihilator-- (Ravens -2.5)

There's no question this line has been inflated to some degree, but I'm not all that concerned about laying a couple extra points here. This is an absolute must win for Baltimore after their 0-3 start. While most teams that start out 0-3 aren't any good, I don't think that's the case here with the Ravens, as they could just as easily be 3-0. Pittsburgh on the other hand is in awful spot with a short week to put together a new gameplan for Michael Vick at quarterback, who replaces Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers offense looked pedestrian at best after Roethlisberger went down last week against the Rams. While I expect Pittsburgh to play well early, I just don't see them keeping pace offensively with Flacco and the Ravens in the 2nd half. Give me Baltimore -2.5!

50* NFL --Gridiron Guaranteed ATS Annihilator-- (Chiefs +7)

The Chiefs will not only be highly motivated off that crushing loss at home to the Broncos, but they have a big advantage here with getting 3 extra days of rest to prepare for Rodgers and the Packers. Kansas City beat themselves more than anything against the Broncos. I still think this is one of the best teams in 2015 and one that's more than capable of going on the road and putting an end to Green Bay's Lambeau winning streak. That makes this an easy play on Kansas City getting a touchdown. Give me the Chiefs +7!

50* NFL --NFC West Game of the Month-- (49ers +7)

I love the value we are getting with the 49ers as a 7-point dog against division rival Arizona. The Cardinals are getting a lot of love right now from their 2-0 start, but let's not forget those 2 wins have come against the likes of the Saints and Bears, who are two of the worst teams in the league right now. San Francisco looked really good in their opener, but were dominated in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh. That defeat to the Steelers doesn't really concern me, as the 49ers were in an awful spot. San Francisco had 1 fewer day to prepare and had to travel to the east coast for an early start time, while the Steelers got 3 extra days of rest after playing on Thursday Night Football and highly motivated to avoid an 0-2 start. This is a game I feel San Francisco can win outright. Give me the 49ers +7!

50* NFL ---Total of the Month--- (Over 45.5)

I think we are seeing some great value here with this total at 45.5 points, largely due to both of these offenses struggling last week. The Colts scored just 7 points at home against the Jets, while the Titans were held to a mere 14-points at Cleveland. Indianapolis has too much talent offensively and too good of a quarterback to not get this turned around. I believe their struggles were largely due to playing 2 really good defenses in Buffalo and New York. The Titans will be playing at home for the first time this season and I look for Mariota to have a big day here against a banged up Colts secondary and will likely have to throw early and often to keep pace with Luck and the Colts. Give me the Over 45.5!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron ATS Annihilator-- (Redskins +4)

I really like getting 4-points here with the Redskins. Washington came into this season viewed as a dysfunctional franchise and weren't given much of a chance to be competitive. They have been a big surprise early on. They were right there with Miami in Week 1 before allowing a returned fumble and dominated the Rams last week at home 24-10 with a 373 to 213 edge in total yards. Washington has the #1 ranked overall defense (234.5 ypg) and the #2 ranked pass defense (164.0 ypg). Giants have a ton of key players out with injuries on both sides of the ball, including starting left tackle Erick Flowers and starting corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (no CB depth). I think Washington wins here outright as the Giants early season woes continue. Give me the Redskins +4!

50* NFL --Colts/Jets Gridiron ATS Annihilator--(Colts -6.5)

I look for the Colts to have no problem winning here by a touchdown. Indianapolis is a much better team at home than they are on the road and will be extremely motivated to avoid opening the season 0-2. Andrew Luck wasn't sharp in the opener against a stingy Bills defense, but will show up with a big game in the bright lights of Monday Night football. Colts have been a profitable team to back off a loss, going 8-1 in their last 9 with an average win by 13.6 points (30.4 to 16.8). Jets are missing some key players here defensively and will struggle to keep up the pace offensively. Give me the Colts -6.5!

50* NFL --Sharp Money Insider-- (Titans -1)

The books can be slow to adjust their power rankings on a team like Tennessee, as they don't want to overreact to one game. As a result they set an awful line here with Cleveland opening up as a 2.5-point favorite. Now Tennessee is the favorite and for good reason. Marcus Mariota is the real deal and he's brought a new sense of life to this team. The Browns will be forced to go with Johnny Manziel at quarterback and that means more turnovers for the Titans defense, which had 2 last week against Tampa Bay. Cleveland was suppose to have a good defense, but a number of their key players are banged up, including star middle linebacker Karlos Dansby. If the Jets' offense can put up 31 on the Browns defense, Mariota and company should have no problem scoring enough here for the win. Tennessee will also be out for revenge from last year's 28-29 heartbreaking home loss to Cleveland. Give me Titans -1!

50* NFL --NFC North Game of the Month--

The more I look at this game, the more I like the Vikings. Minnesota is getting way undervalued here for their loss at SF on Monday Night Football. It was simply a bad matchup for the Vikings and I think they went in a little over confident with how bad the 49ers were expected to be. This is a prime bounce back spot against the Lions, who completely unraveled last week in a 28-33 loss at San Diego (led 21-3). Detroit doesn't have the run game or common sense to take advantage of the Vikings suspect run defense. They also aren't nearly as strong defensively this year with Suh taking up all the attention inside. His replacement, Haloti Ngata, is questionable with a shoulder injury. Detroit is also expected to be without starting linebacker DeAndre Levy (leading tackler last year, 65 more than next best). With him out, this will be the breakout performance everyone was expecting from Adrian Peterson last week. Give me the Vikings -1!

50* NFL * GUARANTEED GRIDIRON ATS ANNIHILATOR* (Chiefs -3)

This is not the same Peyton Manning that has owned the Chiefs over his career, including a perfect 6-0 mark against them with the Broncos. Denver's offense is still a work in progress and may never come to form with the lackluster offensive line they have. This is Kansas City's time to take over the throne in the AFC West and this is a perfect spot for them to do. Denver will be playing on short rest, which is much harder on the road team and will be playing in one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL. Kansas City beat both New England and Seattle at home last year and I expect them to start off with a win at Arrowhead against Denver. This is Andy Reid's best team yet since coming to KC and Alex Smith finally has the weapons and offensive line to take this team to the next level. ROLL THE CHIEFS -3!

50* NFL *MNF GRIDIRON ATS ANNIHILATOR* (Vikings -1.5)

The Vikings have been bet up to the favorite in this one for a reason. Not a lot of people realize just how close the Vikings were to be a playoff team last year. They ended up 7-9, but had 5 losses by 8-points or less. They did that without AP at running back and a rookie under center. The 49ers went 8-8 in what ended up being Harbaugh's final year and were fortunate to win 8 games, as 6 of those came by less than a touchdown. Unlike the Vikings this team looks to have taken a major step back in the offseason. Not only did they lose a great coach, but the talent level got worse on both sides of the ball. This will be a statement game for Minnesota, as they show everyone that they are for real on the big stage of Monday Night Football. ROLL THE VIKINGS -1.5!

50* NFL *GUARANTEED GRIDIRON ATS ANNIHILATOR* (Cardinals -2)

No one seems to want to buy into what Bruce Arians is doing in Arizona. Since he took over the job prior to the 2013 season, the Cardinals have gone 10-6 and 11-5. They would have eclipsed 11-wins last year and potentially went on a deep playoff run had Carson Palmer not got hurt. He's back healthy and this is a completely different offense when he's on the field. Every year the Saints are a team that people want to buy into and pick to be a Super Bowl contender, but they haven't exactly lived up to the hype. They were suppose to be great last year and went 7-9. They lost a huge part of their offense in Jimmy Graham and are going to be without two key players in their secondary with safety Jairus Byrd and corner Keenan Lewis both out with injuries. The biggest key here is that New Orleans has consistently struggled on the road. Arizona laying less than a field goal at home is simply too good to pass up, as they are 17-5 ATS in their 22 home games under Arians and 15-4 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 under Arians. ROLL THE CARDINALS!

50* NFL *PRO GRIDIRON TOTAL CRUSHER*

The public is all over the OVER in this one, as the perception here is that we have two high-powered offenses. The bookmakers know that the majority of the action was going to come in on the OVER and I believe they have inflated this total, creating some great value here on the UNDER. Pittsburgh is without several key pieces offensively in running back Le'Veon Bell, wide out Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey. As for New England, I don't think there offense is going to be in sync out of the gate with all the distractions surrounding Brady and Deflategate, plus they are without running back LeGarrette Blount and wide out Brandon LaFell. Starting center Bryan Stork is doubtful and wide out Julian Edelman will be playing on a bum ankle. Too many key pieces missing for this one to be a shootout. Roll the UNDER 51.5!

10* Seahawks/Patriots NFL Top Play

BET: UNDER 47.5

I think this game could go either way and there's really no value betting the spread, which is why I turned my full attention to the total. I think there is a ton of value on the UNDER, as we have two of the best defenses in the league that are going to make life miserable for the opposing offenses. The Seahawks strength offensively is without question their running game, while the strength of the Patriots stop unit is their defense. Seattle's league-best pass defense, also matches up extremely well with New England's 9th ranked passing attack. I'm expecting a lot of empty possessions with both teams having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they do make it into the redzone. Roll the UNDER 47.5!

10* Colts/Patriots NFL Top Play

BET: Patriots -6.5

The Colts shocking upset win over the Broncos as a 9.5-point underdog has them overvalued on the road against what I believe is the best team in the NFL. As impressive as Indianapolis' win looks, that was clearly not the same Broncos team that we have been watching the past few seasons. Peyton Manning clearly wasn't 100%. Belichick's defense has caused all kinds of problems for Luck and Brady and the offense has had it's way with the Colts defense. New England won by 22 points at Indianapolis in the regular season and outgained the Colts by 181 yards (503 to 322). Patriots have no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. Lay the points!

10* Packers/Seahawks NFL Top Play

BET: Packers +7.5

The perception is that the Packers don't have a chance against the Seahawks on the road with Rodgers at less than 100%, which I believe has this line inflated heavily in favor of Seattle. Not only do I think Green Bay will keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of pulling off the huge upset and spoiling the Seahawks quest for a 2nd straight title. Underdogs or pick that are an excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 45-20 (69%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the points!

10* Colts/Broncos NFL Top Play

BET: Broncos -7

As much as I like Andrew Luck, the Colts aren't quite ready to be serious contenders in the AFC. Denver didn't dominate like they have in the past with Manning down the stretch and it has the Broncos undervalued here at home. Colts defense will have no answer for the Broncos offense and offensively they don't have the balance to win a game of this magnitude on the road. Lay the points!

10* Packers/Cowboys NFL Top Play

BET: Packers -5.5

Dallas should be sitting at home watching this game, but a couple of favorable home calls allowed them to escape with a win over Detroit last weekend. Their luck won't carry over into the frigid conditions at Lambeau on Sunday. Cowboys will not have the success on the ground against the Packers that most think. Green Bay is only giving up 86.4 rushing yards/game since moving Clay Matthews to inside linebacker. Dallas will struggle to score and their defense will have no answer for Rodgers. Lay the points!

10* Panthers/Seahawks NFL Top Play

BET: Panthers +11

Value here is clearly with the Panthers. No team should be favored by double-digits in the Division Round of the playoffs. Carolina has been playing lights out on defense during their recent 5-game winning streak. Seattle's offense won't be able to score enough here to turn this into a blowout. Panthers ability to run the ball offensively gives them a realistic shot at winning this game outright. Take the points!

10* Ravens/Patriots NFL Top Play

BET: Patriots -7

Value here is with the Patriots laying just a touchdown at home against the Ravens. The public is all over Baltimore in this matchup and I'm not really sure why. The Ravens are getting way too much respect for their win in New England TWO YEARS AGO. This Patriots team is the best they have had since they went 16-0 in the regular season back in 2007. Prior to losing a meaningless home game against the Bills in Week 17, New England had won each of their previous 4 home games by at least 22 points, including a 43-21 win over Denver and 34-9 win against Detroit. Baltimore's defense isn't what it was two years ago and Flaco and company won't be able to match Brady. Lay the points!

10* Bengals/Colts NFL Top Play

BET: Colts -3.5

Indianapolis should have no problem winning here by at least 4-points. Cincinnati's been awful in prime time/playoff games and will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who also missed the Bengals 0-27 blowout loss at Indy during the regular season. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't commit a turnover in their last game and are going up against an opponent that turned it over 3 or more times in their last contest are 40-16 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

10* Cardinals/Panthers NFL Top Play

BET: Panthers -6

10* Cardinals/Panthers NFL Top Play

BET: UNDER 38

10* Panthers/Falcons NFL Top Play

BET: Panthers +3

10* Cardinals/49ers NFL Top Play

BET: Cardinals +7

10* Raiders/Broncos NFL Top Play

BET: Raiders +14

10* Cowboys/Redskins NFL Top Play

BET: Redskins +4

10* Bills/Patriots NFL Top Play

BET: Patriots -5

10* Eagles/Giants NFL Top Play

BET: Giants -2

10* Browns/Ravens NFL Top Play

BET: Browns +14

10* Broncos/Bengals NFL Top Play

BET: Broncos -3

10* Broncos/Bengals NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 47

10* Seahawks/Cardinals NFL Top Play

BET: Seahawks -7

10* Colts/Cowboys NFL Top Play

BET: Cowboys -3

10* Ravens/Texans NFL Top Play

BET: Ravens -4.5

10* Packers/Buccaneers NFL Top Play

BET: Packers -11.5

10* Chiefs/Steelers NFL Top Play

BET: Chiefs +3

10* Chargers/49ers NFL Top Play

BET: Chargers +1.5

10* Titans/Jaguars NFL Top Play

BET: Jaguars -3.5

10* Titans/Jaguars NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 38.5

10* Saints/Bears NFL Top Play

BET: Saints -3

10* Eagles/Cowboys NFL Top Play

BET: Eagles -3

10* Vikings/Lions NFL Top Play

BET: Lions -7

10* Chargers/Broncos NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 50.5

10* Cardinals/Rams NFL Top Play

BET: Rams -4

10* Falcons/Packers NFL Top Play

BET: Falcons +14

10* Falcons/Packers NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 54.5

10* Patriots/Chargers NFL Top Play

BET: Patriots -3.5

10* Colts/Browns NFL Top Play

BET: Browns +4

10* Ravens/Dolphins NFL Top Play

BET: Ravens +3

10* Steelers/Bengals NFL Top Play

BET: Bengals -3

10* Giants/Titans NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 46.5

10* Cowboys/Bears NFL Top Play

BET: Cowboys -4

10* Cowboys/Bears NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 51

10* Dolphins/Jets NFL Top Play

BET: Dolphins -6.5

10* Broncos/Chiefs NFL Top Play

BET: Chiefs +1.5

10* Cardinals/Falcons NFL Top Play

BET: Falcons -1.5

10* Panthers/Vikings NFL Top Play

BET: Panthers +2.5

10* Giants/Jaguars NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 44.5

10* Redskins/Colts NFL Top Play

BET: Colts -9.5

10* Seahawks/49ers NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 39.5

10* Bears/Lions NFL Top Play

BET: Lions -7

10* Ravens/Saints NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 50.5

10* Jets/Bills NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 42

10* Dolphins/Broncos NFL Top Play

BET: Broncos -7

10* Rams/Chargers NFL Top Play

BET: Chargers -4.5

10* Bucs/Bears NFL Top Play

BET: Bucs +6

10* Bengals/Texans NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 43.5

10* Browns/Falcons NFL Top Play

BET: Browns +3

10* Chiefs/Raiders NFL Top Play

BET: Chiefs -7

10* Steelers/Titans NFL Top Play

BET: Steelers -6.5

10* Patriots/Colts NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 57.5

10* Bengals/Saints NFL Top Play

BET: Saints -7

10* 49ers/Giants NFL Top Play

BET: 49ers -3.5

10* Bills/Dolphins NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 41

10* Panthers/Eagles NFL Top Play

BET: Eagles -7

10* Lions/Dolphins NFL Top Play

BET: Lions -2.5