50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game. 

I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1. 

The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1! 

50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) 

I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs.

The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season.

I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason. 

I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round.

I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5! 

50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4) 

As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game.

On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles)  filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz).

I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more.

I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent.

The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games. 

Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski.

As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before.

Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4

50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9) 

I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats. 

The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5. 

Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk. 

I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game.

It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers.

I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals.

I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two.

Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game.

Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9) 

I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it.

The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series.

If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards.

Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here.

Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries.

Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5)

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson.

While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright.

This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson.

Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) 

These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3) 

I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  

If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14. 

New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less. 

They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards. 

I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins.

One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense.

Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out. 

I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)

I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) 

I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field.

The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs.

Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team.

Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time.  

While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals.

I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg).

It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3!

50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5) 

This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1.

The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs.

The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20.

While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -120) 

I just think there’s too much value here with the Rams laying less than a field goal at home against the Saints. New Orleans is getting way too much respect here on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the Saints have won 8 straight and own a 7-1 ATS record during this stretch. At the same time, the public was just burned by the Rams in last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings.

I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see LA struggle on the road against the Vikings. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFL that no one is talking about and have a much bigger home field advantage than they get credit for. In fact, I was on the Vikings in that game. Now it’s the Rams who are almost in an identical spot here against the Saints.

Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 8-game winning streak, but a big reason they have won 8 in a row is the schedule has set up perfectly. Only two of the six wins have come against a team that currently has a winning record. One of those was at Carolina, but that was back when Cam Newton was still shaking off the rust from his shoulder surgery. The other was at home against the Lions, who I don’t feel are anywhere close to as good as their 6-4 record would suggest. In my opinion, the Rams are the best team the Saints will have played since they lost at home to the Patriots way back in Week 2.

One of the reasons that New Orleans has been playing so well is they are vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately for them, they suffered a big loss in the win over the Redskins, as defensive end Alex Okafor was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. They also lost star rookie corner Marshon Lattimore to an ankle injury and it’s looking unlikely that he will be able to play. Those are two key pieces to their success on that side of the ball and I believe it will be too much to overcome here against a potent Rams offense that is 2nd in the NFL at 30.3 ppg.

I also think we see the Saints offense struggle to get going in this one. After struggling to adjust early on to new schemes under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Rams have been playing at an elite level on the defensive side of the ball. Over their last 6 games they are giving up just 13.5 ppg and this is hands down the best defense that New Orleans has faced since their Week 1 loss to Minnesota, where they scored just 19 points.

Lastly, the Saints are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having covered at least 7 of their last 8 and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Rams!

50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2)

The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2.

LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs.

The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game.

Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2)

The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board.

I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month.

Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal.

I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5.

Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2.

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4)

I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week.

It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for.

The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s.

On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense.

You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -7) 

My money is on KC at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. This might seem like a big number for a division game, but I think this is an ideal spot to back the Chiefs. Not only does this feel like a must-win for Kansas City off 2 straight losses, but they got a big edge with a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 7. Any time you give Andy Reid extra time to prepare for an opponent, it typically ends bad for the other side. Note their win over the Eagles, where they led by 14 late in that game was after they played on Thursday the previous week. I know the Chiefs lost to Oakland in their last game, but they have dominated the AFC West and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the division. Give me Kansas City -7! 

50* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) 

I just don't trust this Lions team against the Steelers, who might be the best team in the AFC. We pay so much attention to Pittsburgh's "Triple B's" on offense, but I've been really impressed with the defense. If you take away the two interceptions returned for a TD and a garbage TD in the final minutes in their 9-30 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers defense would be working on 4 straight games where they haven't allowed more than 14 points. Note that Jaguars game is the only one all season where they gave up more than 20-points in regulation. I expect the defense to show up in prime time game tonight and we get more than enough from Big Ben and the Steelers offense to secure the win and cover. Give me Pittsburgh -3! 

100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5)

The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) 

The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! 

50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals +5.5) 

For as well as the Steelers played against the Chiefs last week, there’s reason to be concerned that they only won by 6-points. Had it not been for what should have been an interception bouncing off a Chief player and into the hands of Antonio Brown, which he ran in for a TD, they actually might have lost that game.

While Le’Veon Bell was fantastic with 179 yards on 32 attempts, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look great and hasn’t really played well in 2017. I think the Steelers offense is in for a long day here against a stingy Cincinnati defense. The Bengals come in ranked 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 262.8 ypg. They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 ppg.

The run defense has been exceptional the past few weeks, which also coincided with return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who missed the first 3 games with a suspension. Cincinnati has allowed just 63.7 ypg in their last 3, holding the Bills strong rushing attack to just 82 yards in their last game. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Bell, but I think he has a hard time getting to 100 yards unless he breaks a big run.

It’s not just the defense that has come alive for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has looked so much better since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. Under Labor the Bengals are averaging 25.0 ppg and 346.3 ypg. Note they scored a combined 9 points and averaged just 258 yards/game under Zampese.

The other big key here is that Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which I believe should have this spread a lot closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The thing is, even though the Bengals are clearly on the rise, Pittsburgh is such a public team the books are going to take advantage of that an inflate the line. Give me the Bengals +5.5! 

50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. 

The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. 

Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! 

50* NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Raiders -4) 

I absolutely love this spot for the Raiders at home against division rival Chargers. All the hype around Oakland has took a big hit with their current 3-game losing streak, but they are getting back starting quarterback Derek Carr against a Chargers team they have beat 4 straight times. 

Los Angeles was able to avoid an 0-5 start by beating another winless team in the Giants in Week 5, but were fortunate to do so, as they trailed 17-22 going in the 4th quarter. I know the Chargers have been competitive despite the 1-4 record, but this is a tough spot playing on the road for a second straight week against a desperate Raiders team that really can't afford to lose this game with how well the Chiefs and Broncos are playing in their division. 

I think this is the week that Marshawn Lynch and that Raiders running game gets going, as they go up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last vs the run, allowing 161.2 ypg. That's only going to make it that much easier on Carr in his first game back from injury. This San Diego offense is also nothing special and continue to struggle to run the ball. 

Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC. Give me the Raiders -4! 

50* NFL AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Patriots -9) 

I would love to what the odds would have been that the Patriots and Jets would have the same record going into their Week 6 showdown. I believe it has New England showing some value and that’s hard to do when you are talking about a near double-digit road favorite against a division rival.

I’ll be the first to say that I didn’t see the Jets winning 3-games all season, but I’m also not going to let a 3-game winning streak against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns change my thought process on this team. I still believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league and wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win another game.

I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. I just don’t see the Jets being able to generate enough offense to keep this close. I know the Patriots defense has been bad to start the year, but they were a lot better last time out against the Bucs. Holding a potent Tampa Bay offense to just 14 points.

One of the reasons for New England’s poor start defensively is a schedule the has had them face Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. They finally catch a break here going up against Josh McCown, who has a mere 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Under his guidance the offense has scored 23 or less in all 5 games.

As for the Jets defense and their strong numbers, they have faced Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Carr is the only one of those who you would consider an above-average QB and he went 23 of 28 for 230 yards and 3 scores in a 25-point blowout win. Even with the home crowd supporting them, I don’t see the Jets keeping the Patriots offense in check here.

I also like the fact that the Patriots haven’t got off to a great start. Not that Belichick would let them look past any opponent, they should be 100% locked in for a division matchup. You also have to factor in the advantage Belichick and his staff have here with New England getting a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week. All signs point to a lopsided win and cover for the Patriots in this one. Give me New England -9! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -3) 

Carson Wentz and the Eagles are getting all kinds of love right now and a lot of people are saying they are the best team in the NFC. I don’t think that’s going to sit well with Carolina, who I’m surprised isn’t getting more love given they are just two seasons removed from going 15-1 and playing in the Super Bowl.

I was really high on Carolina coming into this season and expected them to return close to the form that had them playing on the final Sunday of the season two years ago. The offense didn’t start out great, but have found a nice rhythm the last two games, scoring 33 on the Patriots and 27 on the Lions.

Newton has been a big reason for the uptick in production, throwing for 671 yards with 6 TDs to just 1 INT. In his previous 3 games he had only thrown for 566 yards with a mere 2 TDs and 4 INT. Keep in mind he came into the season at less than 100% recovering from offseason surgery on his throwing arm. For those that don’t remember, Carolina led the NFL in scoring at 31.3 ppg during that magical 2015 season.

Not to take anything away from the Eagles and their strong start, but they come in having beat the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals over the last 3 weeks. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 on the year. Their best win coming at Washington in Week 1.

I think this is a game where we see Wentz and the Eagles struggle on the road against one of the top tier teams in the league. Carolina’s defense is one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Panthers come in 6th against the run (79.8 ypg) and are 5th against the pass (194.2 ypg). This will be their first game against a team that ranks inside the Top 10 against both the run and the pass.

Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 25-15 in their last 40 against a strong offensive team that is averaging 24+ points/game. Give me the Panthers -3! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals -3) 

I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons.

A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown.

The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines is also questionable.

Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews.

I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week.

It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal.

Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half. Give me the Bengals -3

50* PATS/BUCS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bucs +6)

This Patriots defense has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the season. They are 31st in points allowed at 32.0 ppg and dead last in yards allowed (476.8 ypg). They are 32nd against the pass (324.0 ypg) and 26th against the run (132.8 ypg).

This past weekend they let Cam Newtown and a struggling Carolina offense rack up 33 points and 444 yards. The defense was so bad, the Patriots couldn’t even win at home, despite being +2 in turnovers. As much as I hate going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a loss, I just see too much value in Tampa Bay as an underdog at home.

I was impressed with how the Bucs responded against the Giants, as they were still missing some key players on defense. They are starting to get healthy on that side of the ball and while I don’t expect them to shutdown Brady and the Patriots offense, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this game close and at least cover. 

More than anything, I just don’t see New England’s defense being able to slow down Jameis Winston and this high-powered Buccaneers offense. A unit that’s only going to get better once DeSean Jackson starts getting more involved. They also get a big boost to their running game this week, as Doug Martin returns from a 3-game suspension. Martin was impressive in training camp and could step in right away with a huge game against this Pats defense.

While New England’s offense is built around Brady and the passing attack, the ability to have some success on the ground is critical. It won’t be easy getting the running game going against the Bucs, who rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 78.7 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry. Note that the Patriots are just 1-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are holding opponents under 90 rushing yards/game. Give me the Bucs +6! 

100* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR (Falcons -8) 

I know this is a big number, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-1 start and fresh off an upset win at home against the Broncos in Week 3. I think it has the public hesitating a bit here to Atlanta, who has a couple of wins over the Bears and Lions that weren't all that impressive. The thing is, both of those came on the road. The Falcons lone home game this season was a blowout win over the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. 

Buffalo has a decent defense and was able to do enough on that side against a pretty limited Denver offense at home, where they are a much better team. I know they only lost by 6 at Carolina, but the final was 3-9. The Panthers offense was a joke in that game and has not looked good at all so far this season. Buffalo's offense was even worse and I just don't see them being able to contain this high-powered Falcons offense.

I'm still convinced that the Bills are in a major rebuilding phase and aren't built to win. They simply have looked good early against a horrible Jets team, a bad Panthers offense and a Broncos team that was primed for a letdown after that big win over Dallas. I would be shocked if this is a game for long. Give me the Falcons -8 in a blowout! 

50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) 

I've been impressed with what Deshaun Watson has been able to do for this Houston offense and his play last week in what should have been an upset of the Patriots. However, I think the way they lost that game puts them in a tough spot here against a hungry and very good Tennessee team. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a defeat where you let a win slip through your fingers. 

The other big thing to keep in mind here is that Houston's offense had looked awful in their previous two games. They simply went up against a Patriots defense that might be playing as bad as any unit in the NFL. I look for this Titans defense to really make life miserable for Watson and that offense, which has a below-average offensive line. 

As for Tennessee's offense, I think they pose some problems for this Houston defense, which is built more to get after the quarterback than to stop the run. The Titans have a top level offensive line and running game, plus a mobile quarterback that can make plays when nothing is there. Tennessee has one goal and that's to win the division, so I don't see them laying an egg off the big win over Seattle. Give me the Titans -2.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5)

I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5! 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) 

I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. 

I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! 

50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39)

I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! 

40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) 

Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! 

50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5) 

50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6) 

Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3)

I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3! 

50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3) 

I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play  (Falcons -5.5)

It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5!

50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5)

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles -4.5) 

I absolutely love the value here with the Eagles in this one. Dallas is treating this like a Week 1 preseason game (resting guys, only playing starters for a series or two). I know the Eagles are favored, but I don't think by near enough given the circumstances. This game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys and the only thing on the coaches and players minds is to make sure no one gets hurt. They are going to keep things very vanilla and get the scrubs in as quickly as possible. The reason the line isn't bigger, is because there's so many public Cowboys backers out there that will bet them regardless of the situation. Philadelphia has shown they aren't going to just lay down and quit because their season didn't go as planned. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry and even if Dallas keeps it close early, they should pull away in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5!  

50* NFL Vega Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3.5) 

I look for KC to lay it on the Broncos in this one. Kansas City might already be in the playoffs by the time this game starts, but they still desperately want to win here. With Oakland losing Carr to injury, they still have a realistic shot of winning the division and getting a first round (need to win out and have OAK lose at DEN next week). The Chiefs are also the better team in this one and have a massive homefield advantage and it's going to feel like a playoff game at Arrowhead tonight. Give me the Chiefs -3.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Year (Texans -1)

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 42.5)

I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight between the Giants and Eagles. New York's defense has been playing lights out of late and should have no problem keeping this slumping Philadelphia offense in check. New York's offense looks good on paper with Manning and Beckham, but they are only scoring 19.4 ppg on the season and just 17.3 ppg on the road. I know the Eagles are out of the playoff race, but I think they show up here at home in a prime time game on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 42.5!

50* NFL -Panthers/Redskins Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I believe we are going to see a lot of scoring take place on Monday Night Football. Washington's got an explosive offense that comes in averaging 27.5 ppg at home. This is also an ideal matchup for the Redskins pass-happy attack. Washington has the 2nd ranked passing attack in the league and will be facing a Panthers defense that is 30th versus the pass. Carolina also isn't a good defensive team on the road, giving up 32.5 ppg. On the flip side of this, the Panthers have a strong offense and will be facing a very suspect Redskins defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against he pass. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* NFL -Colts/Vikings Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Vikings -4.5)

The Vikings will be welcoming back Adrian Peterson to the offense and I expect him to have a big impact right away. Especially against a Colts defense that struggles against the run. Indianapolis had a chance to take control of the AFC South last week and weren't able to get it done. This Minnesota team reminds me a lot of the Texans, who are elite defensively. The Vikings are also a much better team at home and with how much this game means to them, I look for Minnesota to pull away for an easy win and cover. Give me the Vikings -4.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles +2)

The books are begging for you to take the Redskins as a small road favorite here, which only strengthens how much I like the Eagles at home in this one. Philadelphia has been so bad on the road, people forget this team is 4-1 at home this season. They are going to want revenge here against a division rival after losing in Washington earlier this season and I like their chances. Washington hasn't been playing all that great of late and the injuries are starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. This is a statement game for the Eagles, who not only want to damper Washington's playoff hopes, but snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Last time out the Redskins gave up 31 to a Cardinals offense that had been struggling, so there's every reason to believe Wentz and the Eagles offense can get rolling. Adding to that, Washington is just 2-8 ATS in their last 30 after giving up 30 or more points. You also can't overlook this being the Redskins 3rd straight on the road, which is one of the more difficult tasks to overcome in the NFL, especially this late in the season. Give me the Eagles +2!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3)

Kansas City is sick and tired of not getting the respect they deserve and will be out to make a statement at home against the Raiders tonight. A team they beat pretty convincingly in Oakland earlier this season. The key thing here is the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in quite a while and have a big advantage here playing at home on short rest in one of the toughest venues for opposing teams to play well. On top of that, the conditions here favor KC, as it's going to be one of the more colder home games in Chiefs history. I look for KC defense to be the difference in this one, while Alex Smith and a very underrated offense take advantage of a very suspect Raiders defense. Give me the Chiefs -3!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Giants +6.5) 

The public loves to back the Steelers and the books have definitely inflated this line to counter some of the action they know they are going to get on Pittsburgh. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Giants in this spot. New York isn't just capable of keeping this game close enough to cover, they can easily win this game outright. New York is playing with all kind of confidence right now, as they come into this game having won 6 straight and the pressure is on to keep winning with Dallas refusing to slip up. I really like the matchups for the Giants in this one. I think their front four can get pressure on Roethlisberger and they have the talent in the secondary to counter Pittsburgh's weapons at the skill positions. On the flip side of things, I don't think Pittsburgh has anyone in their secondary who can stop Odell Beckham Jr. Look for Manning to have a big game here and put the pressure on the Steelers at home. Give me the Giants +6.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Cowboys -3)

I'll gladly back Dallas as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Vikings. The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football of any team in the league, as they come in having won 9 straight and have proven themselves against quality teams. Minnesota on the other hand is on a free fall and are simply no where close to the team that started out 5-0, yet they are getting treated like it with this line. I know it's a big home game for the Vikings, but the offense is a complete mess and the defense hasn't been nearly as dominant as it was early in the year. Dallas' offensive line will be able to have their way here and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this one going away. Give me the Cowboys -3!

50* AFC North Total of the Month (Under 40.5)

This has all the makings of a low-scoring AFC North defensive showdown. The Ravens only come in scoring 19.9 ppg and will struggle to score here against the Bengals. Cincinnati's season is on the line here and I expect an all out effort here from the defense, as the know they have to play well for them to have a chance in this game. That's because the offense is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cincinnati will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who is the one player this offense couldn't afford to lose and it's clear Dalton is not the same QB without him on the field. They also lost running back Giovani Bernard, who has been a big weapon for Dalton out of the backfield when he's under pressure. Even with those two, this offense figured to be in for a long day, as they are going up against an elite Ravens defense. Give me the UNDER 40.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 48) 

I just think we are getting too much value here to pass up on the UNDER with the total sitting at 48. The Colts are going to struggle to do much of anything offensively without Luck under center. Their only chance of keeping this game competitive is to try and get something going in the running game to control the time possession and keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense off the field. I also don't think people realize that Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road as it is at home. The Steelers are only averaging 18.8 ppg on the road this season. The Colts defense knows they have to play well here and playing at home in a prime time game should have them a notch or two better than what we would normally see on a given Sunday. Give me the UNDER 48!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans +6) 

I just don't think the Raiders are going to be able to continue to have the same success they have enjoyed earlier in the season. Oakland is getting treated like an elite team when they shouldn't be. They just as easily could be sitting with 6 losses, as they have had some great fortune in close games. I also don't trust their defense and it's only a matter of time before their inability to stop the opposition bites them. I believe it starts tonight against the Texans, who clearly are limited on the offensive side of the ball, but talented enough to take advantage of what Oakland will put out on the field. I know the Texans don't have J.J. Watt on defense, but I still like the talent on that side of the ball. Give me Houston +6! 

50* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month (Chiefs -7.5)

I think we are going to get a breakout performance from the Chiefs at home against the Bucs on Sunday. While KC has won 5 straight, there's no denying they haven't played anywhere close to their potential the last two weeks against the Jaguars and Panthers. I believe the fact that the Chiefs have a tendency to win ugly has kept them from being overvalued, as I actually think they should be a bigger favorite than they are here. If the season ended today the Chiefs would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC and this line doesn't feel like they are getting treated with that kind of respect. Tampa Bay is not a good team and I look for them to come out flat after a comfortable 3-game homestand. This is also a great matchup for the Chiefs, as their defense should be able to give an inconsistent Jameis Winston trouble, especially with Justin Houston back in action. At the same time, KC's offense should be able to exploit a bad Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league against both the run and the pass. Chiefs are 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by nearly 10-ppg and I expect an easy double-digit win here. Give me Kansas City -7.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Bengals -1)

I just think this Bengals team is a lot better than they are getting credit for right now and the Giants aren't as good as what people make them out to be. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see the big money flip this line to Cincinnati as the 1-point favorite after the Giants opened as the favorite (public on NY). I look for the Bengals offense to have their way in this one, and while the defense hasn't played great, I feel like this is a great matchup, as New York offers almost no threat of a running game. On top of that, Cincinnati has a big edge here coming off their bye, giving them two weeks to put together a gameplan for Eli and OBJ. Give me the Bengals -1!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Dolphins +4.5) 

I'll gladly back Miami here as a decently priced road dog against the Chargers. San Diego has covered 4 of their last 5 and the public has jumped on the bandwagon, which I believe has this line inflated. The Dolphins are playing their best football the season right now and that rushing attack proved to me it was real by putting up 137 yards on the Jets dominant run D last week. San Diego has serious injury problems at inside linebacker. They will be without their top 4 at the position, as two Te'o and Dzunbar are both on IR and Perryman and Brown are both out this week with injuries. San Diego also figures to be without one of their top options in the passing game, as Benjamin is doubtful. I'll ride the red-hot Dolphins with the points on Sunday. Give me Miami +4.5!

50* AFC North Game of the Month (Ravens -8)

I'll gladly go against the public, which is backing the Browns at a near 60% clip. Cleveland has been competitive in a number of their games, but I'm confident this won't be one of them. Playing on short rest is a recipe for disaster for this Browns squad, who is one of the least talented teams in the NFL. While the Ravens have struggled to put away teams over the last couple of years, this is one team they can dominate from start to finish. Baltimore's defense is one of the best in the league and their offense is going to be able to move the ball against the Browns. I think this one could turn into one of the more lopsided affairs of the season. Give me the Ravens -8!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Seahawks -6.5)

*Analysis Coming*

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54.5)

I believe we have a perfect recipe for a high-scoring game here, as we get two of the better quarterbacks in the league in Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers and neither has much of a running game they can rely on. Both come in throwing it about 62% of the time. That's going to keep the clock from running constantly and should lead to some big plays and quick scores. No real need to discuss how bad the Colts defense is, as it's clear they don't have the talent on that side of the ball and it's almost a given they struggle on the road, as they come in giving up 28.7 ppg and over 400 ypg. The key here is the Packers defense is built more for stopping the run and has struggled against the pass. They are giving up a 63% completion rate and 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They also remain thin in the secondary, corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall are both out, while corners Quinten Rollins, and Demetri Goodson are both questionable. Let's also not forget that Luck and the Colts just got a big weapon back last week in Donte Moncrief. Give me the OVER 54.5!

50* NFL AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) 

Kansas City is quietly sitting 3rd in the AFC West at 4-2 and I just don't think this team gets the respect they deserve. I actually think once they get back Justin Houston, which could be as soon as next week, they are going to prove to be the best team in the division. All the Chiefs have done since Andy Reid took over is go 36-21 in the regular season and come into this one having won 14 of their last 16. The offense is starting to come alive, as Alex Smith is starting to stretch the field more with talented rookie wide out Tyreek Hill, who might be the fastest player in the NFL. Reminds me a lot of DeSean Jackson when Reid was with the Eagles. Defensively the Chiefs do give up some yards, but they do a good job of forcing turnovers and not letting opposing teams turn those yards into points. I just don't trust this Colts team against what I consider to be top level teams, as they just aren't that talented outside of Luck and some quality receivers. Reid has gone 32-16 ATS when his teams are on the road against a team with a losing record and are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when coming into a game after posting a turnover margin of +1 or better in 2 straight games. Give me KC -2.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

I believe we are going to see a sloppy low-scoring game on Thursday Night Football, as the Titans host the Jaguars. Both of these offenses are struggling to consistently put up points. Tennessee comes into this game 20.9 ppg and Jacksonville is even worse at 19.5 ppg. What a lot of people don't realize with these two teams is they are solid on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans are 10th in total defense and the Jaguars are 9th. Unless we get a lot of turnovers and short fields, I think this one stays well under the mark. Note that 4 of the last 5 in the series have seen a combined score of 36 or less. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* MNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 40.5) 

I think both of these offenses are going to have a horrible time trying to sustain drives and finish them off with points. The Broncos are going to make life absolutely miserable for Brock Osweiler and I expect Houston to try and counter that by running Lamar Miller as much as possible. As for the Denver offense, I think they too could find it hard here. The Broncos could be without both starting offensive tackles and without those two the offensive line is in really bad shape. Even if they play, I think both could struggle to contain Houston's solid pass rushing duo of Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. Like the Texans, Denver is going to look to run the ball early and often. It won't quite be the defensive battle that we saw last night with Seattle and Arizona, but I don't think it's too far behind. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

50* SNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 44)

I'm expecting an old-school defensive battle on Sunday Night Football between the Seahawks and Cardinals. This is a huge game for both teams. Seattle knows they can take complete control of the NFC West with a win here and winning the division and getting home field in the playoffs is critical for this team. Arizona on the other hand has to have this game to keep their hopes alive of defending as division champs. Both offenses have been hit or miss this season, but defensively both have been sharp. Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense, ranking in the top 5 against both the run and the pass. Arizona is 4th in total defense. While they are 17th against the run, they come in at No. 3 against the pass, which is key here against Seattle. A lot of people think the Seahawks are more of a run team than they are. Seattle is 24th in rushing compared to 9th in passing, so this is clearly a good matchup for the Cardinals. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* NFL *AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR* (Over 47.5) 

I believe we just got a glimpse of what this Patriots offense is capable of doing in last week's game against the Browns. Had it not been the Browns, who aren't believed to be a good defensive team, this total would be much higher. Last time these two teams played, Brady and the Patriots put up 43 points on the Bengals back in 2014 and Cincinnati's defense is no where near as talented right now as it was two years ago. I know Cincinnati's offense hasn't been great, but I think they are going to have some success moving the ball here. New England's defense has put up solid numbers, but it's helped that 4 of their 5 games have come against the Dolphins, Texans, Bills and Browns. The Bengals have the most talented offense they have faced since the Cardinals in Week 1 and they allowed 21 in that game. I think this one easily gets past 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

My money is on the UNDER in tonight's AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Broncos. It's no secret that Denver's defense is legit and we know they are going to show up after a not so great showing last week at home against the Falcons. The Chargers defense hasn't looked great, but I think playing at home in this spot is going to bring out the best of them. I also think Denver's offense is a bit limited. Even more so tonight, without head coach Gary Kubiak, who is an excellent playcaller. The offensive line has also not been great of late and starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is playing hurt. You also have to take into account the last two meetings in San Diego have been low-scoring, both games finishing with 32 or less points. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Chargers last 12 home games after the first month of the season and 16-4 in their last 20 after gaining 350 or more passing yards in their previous game. Take the UNDER 44! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 45.5) 

The fact that Cam Newton isn't playing is going to have a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in this game, but I'm focusing more on what these two defenses will look like. Carolina let one of their starting corners go and the other is hurt. Jameis Winston and his weapons in the passing game are going to be able to pick up some big plays down the field. As for Tampa Bay's defense they are expected to be without both starting defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald and potentially starting defensive end Robert Ayers (questionable). Keep in mind they are already minus three other defensive ends who were expected to contribute in Noah Spence, George Johnson and Jacquies Smith. Not only do I think both offenses have success here, but I think we also get a few turnovers that lead to quick scores and push this past the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month (Bengals -1.5) 

Dallas was able to overcome their injuries and get a win on the road against the 49ers last week, but that's nothing to get excited about. San Francisco is one of the worst teams in the league and we just saw them lose at home to the Cardinals without Carson Palmer. The Cowboys have really benefited from an easy schedule to start the season and are taking a big step up in competition here with a motivated Bengals team that is coming in with extra rest. Cincinnati knows this is a game they have to have. Dallas is missing key pieces all over the field, including their top playmaker at receiver (Dez Bryant) and top corner (Orlando Scandrick). Not to mention some big injuries on that potent offensive line. Cincinnati wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides and wins this game. Give me the Bengals -1.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 43) 

This game has a defense battle written all over it. Minnesota is 3-0 due in large part to the play of their defense. They come in averaging 21.3 ppg, but part of that is a result of some defensive scores. Offensively they are averaging just 265 yards/play. With that limited offense and great defense, Minnesota wants to grind out possessions and limit the opponents chances. The Giants defense didn't perform well last week against Washington, high-powered passing attack, but in their two previous games played really well. I see New York's stop unit playing really well against the limited Vikings offense. As long we don't get a bunch of turnovers that lead to immediate scores, I just don't see enough offense here to eclipse this total. Give me the UNDER 43! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Panthers -3) 

I really like the Panthers in this spot. They hype surrounding Carolina coming into the season has taken a big hit after their 1-2 start and ugly loss at home lost week to a Vikings team the public thought they would dominate at home. Atlanta on the other hand has gained some respect from their 2-1 start, but those two wins have come against two overrated teams in the Saints and Raiders. Both of which are not good on the defensive side of the ball. it's allowed the Falcons to cover up what has been a pretty bad defense of their own. The Panthers have the playmakers on defense to make life miserable for Matt Ryan an Atlanta's offense and their offense should do as they please here. This also has the feel of a must win game for Carolina, who desperately don't want to fall to 1-3. Give me the Panthers -3! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 45) 

Two desperate teams take the field on Thursday, as the Bengals and Dolphins are both going to play their hearts out to avoid starting the season 1-3. Both teams have plenty of reason to still believe they can turn things around after their 1-2 starts. Miami's two losses have come against the Seahawks and Patriots, while Cincinnati's two defeats have come to Pittsburgh and Denver. Bengals defense hasn't been great the first 3 weeks, but they get back the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended the first 3 games. We also have both teams missing key players offensively. Cincinnati remains without tight end Tyler Eifert. Miami is minus starting running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron, not mention are banged up on the offensive line. Bengals offensive line has also struggled early on, as they are only averaging 82 ypg on the ground and have seen Dalton sacked 12 times in 3 games. Miami comes in having recorded 9 sacks in 3 games, which is tied for 7th in the league. Give me the UNDER 45! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 53.5) 

I'm expecting a lot of fireworks offensively for both teams, which should have this one going well over the total here. Both of these teams are expected to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. Atlanta is definitely on their way, as they are averaging 29.5 ppg and 451 ypg over their first two contests. They go up against a Saints defense that isn't anything to write home about. New Orleans did manage to score just 13 points last week at the Giants, but that's just what they do. The Saints score a ton of points at home and struggle to generate offense on the road. They should have no problem getting the offense going, as the Falcons are getting torched through the air so far this season, playing right into the hands of the Saints high-powered passing attack. Atlanta is giving up 7.4 yards/pass attempt and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.1% of their attempts. Give me the OVER 53.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Dolphins -9) 

I have no problem laying this big number on the Dolphins at home against the Browns. Miami is a better team than they get credit for, but just aren't getting a ton of respect at 0-2. Everyone was on Baltimore last week and they saw the Browns jump out 20-0 on the Ravens before eventually losing. That was at home and with an experienced quarterback. Now Cleveland goes on the road with rookie Cody Kessler making his first NFL start. He does so without talented rookie wide out Corey Coleman, who played a big part in them being competitive against Baltimore with 5 catches for 104 yards and 2 scores. Miami isn't going to overlook the Browns at 0-2 and I look for them to make a statement here and easily win this one by double-digits. Give me Cleveland -9! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -1) 

I know the Patriots might be without Garoppolo, but I still think they are the better team and will find a way to win at home. Keep in mind, there's still a shot Garoppolo plays. So much attention is being made to that injury, people are overlooking the other factors here. Like the advantage the Patriots have on a short week of prep with Bill Belichick or that New England's defense is every bit as good as the Texans and the Houston offense is nothing to write home about. Whenever this team is doubted, like they are here, they always seem to find a way to prove people wrong. Whether it's Brissett or Garoppolo, I expect the Patriots offense to be able to move the ball and the defense to make enough stops to win this game. It's also worth mentioning, I'm not that high on the Texans and feel they are overrated right now after the 2-0 start. They beat an awful Bears team at home, which they trailed in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs in a huge revenge spot from last year's ugly playoff loss. Give me the Patriots -1! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Bears -3) 

I think we are catching a good number here with Chicago as a field goal favorite at home on Monday Night Football. The Bears are going to come out desperate to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start to the season and I believe this is a better team than people think. Chicago went into Houston and had a lead going into the 4th quarter. The Eagles won at home against a Browns team that could struggle to win a game this season. I think facing Cleveland has upped the hype on rookie Carson Wentz, who will be making his first NFL road start on the biggest stage of the week. It's also worth noting that rookie quarterbacks haven't faired well in Chicago. Since 2002, rookies are 1-6 with the only win coming in overtime with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Another factor here is the Eagles are missing a key player on both sides of the ball. Offensively they will be without tight end Zach Ertz, who was one of Wentz's favorite targets in Week 1 and on defense they are going to be missing top corner Leodis McKelvin, which is a big loss going up against Chicago talented duo of Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Give me the Bears -3! 

50* NFC West Game of the Month (Rams +7)

I know the Rams couldn't have looked any worse in their opener against the 49ers, but I'm confident that's not the team we are going to see the rest of the year. Keep in mind the Vikings got owned by San Fran in Week 1 last year on Monday Night Football and they went on to win 11 games. This is a much better matchup for LA, especially on defense, where their defensive line should be able to overpower a weak Seahawks offensive line. This is also a big bounce back spot after getting embarrassed in the spotlight of MNF. On top of that, it's the first home game in LA in over two decades. Seattle has started out slow in the past and they certainly didn't look good in Week 1, as they were fortunate to beat Miami at home. Give me the Rams +7! 

50* NFC East Game of the Month (Redskins -2.5) 

Dallas is one of the biggest publicly backed teams in the NFL and while they lost their opener at home against the Giants, they played well enough for the public to back them here. Especially after watching the Redskins getting embarrassed at home by the Steelers on Monday Night Football. I don't think Washington is anywhere close to as bad as that final looked against Pittsburgh. I look for a big bounce back here offensively, as they simply have too many weapons to only put up 16 points. They should have no problem doing that against a soft Dallas defense that will be exposed on multiple occasions this season. Give me the Redskins -2.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Rams -3)

I'm more than willing to lay a field goal on the road with LA against the 49ers. San Francisco is right there with Cleveland in terms of the worst rosters in the league. I don't like the decision to bring in Chip Kelly, as the last thing this team needs is to speed up the tempo on offense and have their defense on the field the majority of the game. The Rams certainly have the talent to breakout this season and I think Case Keenum is better than people give him credit for. The defensive front of the Rams will make life miserable for the 49ers Blaine Gabbert, who is simply the starter by default. SF surprised in Week 1 last year on Monday Night Football and I think that's keeping this line low. I don't see it happening again. Give me Rams -3! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Vikings -2.5) 

No Teddy Bridgewater, no problem for the Vikings in Week 1. The injury is being blown out of proportion with how it's going to hurt this team. I'm not saying Bridgewater isn't a good player, but this team isn't built around the passing game. It's all about Adrian Peterson and the defense. Both of which should be very good here against the Titans. Tennessee wants to run the football down your throat and that's just not going to work against a well-coached and very talented Minnesota defense. I also think the Vikings are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, as they want to prove to all the skeptics that they are still a legit Super Bowl contender this season. Give me the Vikings -2.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Panthers/Broncos Under 41.5) 

These two teams combined for just 34 points when they faced off in last year's Super Bowl and I think they were fortunate to get there. Denver's 24-points came primarily off turnovers. They had a fumbled returned for a touchdown and another fumble recovery that resulted in a 3 play 4-yard drive (2-pt conversion. When forced to actually put a drive together the Broncos managed just two field goals. Carolina's offense only put up 10 points, as they simply had no answer for Denver's pass rush. Given that the Panthers didn't do anything to improve the tackle position, I don't see that being any different in this one. If anything it's going to be even harder with the game being played in Denver. I see a low-scoring defensive battle that comes down to the wire. Give me the UNDER 41.5! 

50* NFL --Super Bowl 50 MAX BET-- (Broncos +5.5) 

The betting public is all over the Panthers for Super Bowl 50, yet oddsmakers have kept this number under a touchdown for a reason. Carolina is not going to turn this into a blowout like the Seahawks did to them a couple years back. In fact, I think the Broncos win this game outright. Like they have all year, Denver is going to rely on their defense and they have the talent and scheme to keep Cam Newton in check. I also think Peyton Manning is going to play exceptionally well. Note he hasn't thrown an interception in 78 attempts since returning in Week 17. He would have even more yards and touchdowns if it wasn't for the timing being off just a little. I look for him to get back on the same page as his receivers with the two week layoff prior to the game. Give me the Broncos +5.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Panthers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5) 

So much attention is being paid to Cam Newtown and Carson Palmer with these two high-powered offenses, but I believe it will be the defenses that take over this game. Keep in mind these are two of the best defenses the NFL has to offer. Arizona ranks 7th in scoring defense (19.6 ppg) and 5th in total defense (321.7) ypg). Carolina is 6th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 6th in total defense (322.9 ypg). The pressure of knowing that a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line will likely have both offenses a bit jittery early in this one and keep in mind that conditions are going to be less than ideal. UNDER is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 against a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Chiefs +5) 

Most are going to just assume that the Patriots are going to go right back to the team that started out the season 10-0 due to getting a few guys back from injury. At the same time, no one wants to buy into the Chiefs and what they are doing, having won 11 straight. Kansas City matches up extremely well with New England on both sides of the ball and I believe they have something special going on right now. Let's not forget what this Chiefs team did to the Patriots in a 41-14 win over the Patriots on Monday Night Football last year. This Kansas City defense is for real and I look for a banged up Patriots offense to struggle to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if KC pulled off the unthinkable upset on the road in New England in the postseason. Give me the Chiefs +5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Chiefs -3) 

Kansas City is not getting near the respect the should be going into the playoffs. The Chiefs closed out the regular season on a 10-game winning streak and have the perfect recipe for success in the postseason. Kansas City doesn't turn the ball over on offense and creates takeaways on defense, they can run the football and are playing as well as anyone on defense. Houston is in the playoffs by default, as the AFC East was awful. The Texans took advantage of an easy schedule and struggled against playoff caliber teams. The only thing Houston has going for them in this game, is they are playing at home, but I don't think that's a big enough factor here. Give me the Chiefs -3! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Texans -6) 

While the Texans are all but a sure thing to win the AFC South, I don't expect Houston to leave their fate in the hands of someone else. I look for the Texans to come out and take care of business at home against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has come a long way this season, but this is still not a great team and one that I don't think is going to be overly excited about winning the last game of the season. Houston's defense should be the difference in this one and with Hoyer back under center the offense should score enough to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Texans -6!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Broncos -3.5)

The Broncos are being way undervalued here at home against the Bengals. It would be one thing if Cincinnati had Andy Dalton at quarterback, but they are going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road with A.J. McCarron at quarterback. The Bengal's offense is going to have a difficult time getting first downs, let alone score enough points here to keep this game close enough to cover. Give me the Broncos -3.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Rams +13)

Seattle comes into this game having won 5 straight and each of the last 3 have come by at least 17 points. I believe that has the Seahawks way overvalued in this one. Seattle has clearly turned a corner, but there's nothing left for this team to gain over the final two weeks of the season. Seattle has already secured a Wild Card spot and can't win their division. St Louis has showed no signs of quitting on the season and come in off two of their better performances with back-to-back wins over the Lions and Buccaneers. They have had 3 extra days to prepare for this matchup and have a history of playing the Seahawks close. St Louis has won 2 of the last 3 meetings and I look for them to give it everything they have in this matchup. I don't expect another outright win in Seattle, but I do think they keep it close enough to cover. Give me the Rams +13! 

50* NFL --SNF Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Cardinals -3.5)

This is a great price to back the Cardinals in a prime-time game against the Eagles. Philadelphia comes into this game off back-to-back wins, which has forced the books to set a smaller line what this should actually be. Arizona is the far superior team in this matchup and have a big advantage here with 3 extra days of preparation following their game on Thursday Night Football. While the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives in the race for the NFC East title, Arizona is a team on a mission to secure the NFC West and they can do that with a win in this matchup. Cardinals gave up over 300 yards passing last week to the Vikings, but are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing that many yards through the air. Arizona is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in December and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a losing home record. Give me the Cardinals -3.5! 

50* NFL --NFC South Game of the Month-- (Falcons +9)

I absolutely love the value we are getting with the Falcons as a near double-digit dog against the Panthers. Carolina is clearly better than everyone thought coming into the season, but they are being way overvalued by the books due to their 12-0 start. Atlanta has really struggled to get back on track after a 5-0 start, but they have been in every game they have played. Only 2 losses all season by more than the spread listed for this game and both of those were 10-point defeats. Carolina is due for a dud and these division games have a way of being closer than expected, just look at the Panthers came last week against the Saints, which they could have easily lost. Give me the Falcons +9! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (OVER 45.5)

Arizona has one of the most well-rounded offenses in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in both total offense (419.5 ypg) and scoring offense (31.8 ppg). I look for Arizona to put up a big number here against a Vikings defense that has been hit hard with injuries. Minnesota won't have starting defensive tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr and safeties Harrison Smith and Antone Exum. They also are without backup safety Andrew Sendejo and backup safety Robert Blanton is questionable. Inexperience in the defensive backfield is going to result in a lot of big plays for Arizona and I see no reason why they don't eclipse their season average in this one. Vikings should be able to score enough (may not be till garbage time) to push this well over the mark. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Redskins -3)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Redskins laying just a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. While Dallas is technically still alive in the NFC East race, this is not a legit playoff contender without Romo. Dallas is 0-7 when Romo doesn't start and I don't see that changing on the road against a Washington team that is playing some of their best football right now. The Redskins are also a dominant 5-1 at home this season, riding a 5-game home winning streak. Dallas simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close. Give me the Redskins -3! 

50* NFL --AFC Game of the Month-- (Dolphins -3.5)

I know it hasn't been good for Miami of late, but this is a spot where I think the Dolphins show up and get an easy win. Baltimore needed a blocked field goal at the end of regulation to escape with a win over the Browns and are simply getting too much respect for winning back-to-back games against bad teams. The thing to keep in mind about Miami's 1-4 stretch is that 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against quality teams in the Patriots, Bills and Jets, while the other came at home against the Cowboys with Tony Romo at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill should have a field day here against a horrible Raven's secondary and I just don't see Baltimore being able to keep pace offensively with Schaub guiding the offense. Give me the Dolphins -3.5! 

50* NFL --AFC Game of the Month-- (Broncos +3)

I believe the Patriots perfect season is going to come crashing to an end this week against the Broncos, much like it did for Green Bay when they visited Denver for a prime time Sunday Night Football matchup a few weeks back. As good as Tom Brady has been and he's been very good, the injuries to the skill positions are going to be too much for even him to overcome against an elite Denver defense. I'm also a big fan of Osweiler and what he brings to the table. He's not going to put up huge numbers, but I think he's smart with the football and won't turn it over. Given how Manning was playing, he's not a downgrade like so many people think and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he shined in this game. Give me the Broncos +3! 

50* NFL --Thanksgiving Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Cowboys +1)

It's highly unlikely the Panthers are going to finish the season undefeated and I believe their perfect run comes to an end on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. The Cowboys snapped a 7-game losing streak with a 24-14 win at Miami, which to no surprise came with the return of Tony Romo at quarterback. I firmly believe that if Romo had not got injured, we would be talking about Dallas being one of the elite teams in the NFC right now. The Cowboys should be at a minimum a 3-point home favorite against the Panthers. Carolina has played an easy schedule and most of their tough games have come at home. Now they get a huge road test on a short week of rest. I look for Romo and the Cowboys talented offensive line to have more than enough success here to come away with a win, as their defense is poised to make life miserable for Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. Give me the Cowboys +1! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Bills +7.5)

I know the Patriots had their way against the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season, but this is a much different New England offense this time around. The Patriots have lost two huge pieces of their passing game in wide out Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis. They are also dealing with some injuries up front on the offensive line. I look for this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, which makes the 7.5-points that much more valuable. Rex Ryan knows a thing or two about how to slow down Tom Brady and given the current state of the Patriots I think the Bills have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. Give me Buffalo +7.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Broncos -1)

I think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with the Broncos coming off that ugly loss to the Chiefs at home, which saw Peyton Manning end the game on the sideline. People are acting like the Broncos lost an elite quarterback, but in reality Manning was one of the worst in the league this year. Brock Osweiler is a much better fit for Kubiak's offense and I look for him to surprise against a soft Bears defense. Speaking of defense, Denver has the best stop unit in the league and they are going to come out extremely motivated after last week's poor performance. I think Denver wins here convincingly against an overrated Bears team that has been playing better of late but against bad teams. Give me the Broncos -1! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron MNF Top Play-- (Texans +11)

The Bengals are way overvalued right now and I look for them to struggle to put away the Texans on Monday Night Football. Houston has a big advantage here coming off their bye and I look for them to play one of their best games of the season tonight. Cincinnati struggled to put away the Browns with Manziel at quarterback in Week 9 and have been fortunate to start out 7-0-1 ATS. Houston's defense has played well against the pass and that's been the strength of the Bengals offense in 2015. Defensively, Cincinnati isn't as good as you would think. They are giving up 4.9 yards/carry and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their attempts. Give me the Texans +11! 

50* NFL --SNF Total of the Month-- (UNDER 44.5)

I don't see a whole lot of value here with the spread, but I absolutely love the value we are getting with this total set at 44.5. I think there's a ton of value here with the UNDER. While Seattle's offense has struggled, their defense has been very good since Kam Chancellor returned to the lineup. I expect the Seahawks stop unit to deliver a big time performance here at home in a nationally televised game. At the same time, I don't think Seattle's offense snaps out of their funk against the Cardinals. These two division rivals have a history of low-scoring games when playing in Seattle. In fact, 6 of the last 7 have gone UNDER the total and the last two have seen combined scores of 27 and 22 points. It only adds value here that both teams are coming off a bye. Give me the UNDER 44.5!