Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-17-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 130.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten #1 Top Game O/U - Rickenbach CBB Game #655 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3:30 ET - The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 9-4 when Michigan State, past the midway point in a season, faces a team that is allowing 64 points or less per game. Why? The reason is because the oddsmakers tend to over-adjust when the Spartans are matched up with a team that is also strong defensively just like they are. That said, we've got a lot of value here as this total opened up in the mid-130s but has dropped down to as low as 130 early this morning. Even with yesterday's Michigan game staying under the total, the over is still on a 7-3 run in Wolverines conference tournament games. The Spartans game yesterday also stayed under the total but that is part of what is driving the total down in this one and leading to even more value on the over. 70% of yesterday's games stayed under the total and the betting public is always guilty of being very short-sighted. Just because the majority of games stayed under the total yesterday does not mean a repeat performance today. Yet you're seeing most of the unders getting pounded today. Even though both these teams were involved in unders yesterday, the Spartans scored 67 points and they're averaging 79 points per game on the season! The Wolverines scored 76 points yesterday and they've scored 69 points or more in 8 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in the Big Ten Championship Game |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Houston | Top | 69-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #653 Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on Houston and has been bet up to a -5.5 as of early Sunday morning. Of course the public remembers that Houston has beaten Cincinnati in both meetings this season. However, not only is it tough to win 3 straight over a conference rival in the same season, there is also the matter of the point spread here as well. The Cougars blew the cover against Memphis yesterday and the same thing is absolutely possible here as the Bearcats come into this game rolling with confidence and fully capable of an outright upset. That said, if Cincinnati does fall short of the upset bid I fully expect the defeat to be by a margin of just a single possession. The Bearcats most recent loss was an ugly one versus Houston but 2 of Cincinnati's 3 prior losses came by 3 or less points. The average margin of defeat in the Bearcats 3 prior losses was just 4 points. Cincinnati had 13 more field goal attempts than Houston in the first meeting this season. The Bearcats simply had an awful shooting performance. In the 2nd meeting the Cougars made a ridiculous 12 of 23 three pointers. That resulted in Houston having 18 more points from beyond the arc and that certainly was the key difference in the 16-point victory. The Bearcats have a history of getting to the line much more than the Cougars in their match-ups with an edge of 122 to 69 in free throw attempts in the last 5 meetings. Don't be surprised when the Bearcats gut out an upset win here with the charity stripe also being an edge. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-16-19 | Seton Hall v. Villanova OVER 135 | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #629 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The over is 3-0 in Villanova's last 3 games and the Wildcats game with the Pirates last Saturday totaled 154 points. Seton Hall enters this game having allowed 70 points or more in 7 of its last 9 games. The Pirates have also scored 70 points or more in each of their last 5 games away from home. Villanova has scored over 70 points in 4 straight games. Based on these numbers it is very reasonable to expect this game to get into the 140s. The over is on an 11-5 run in Seton Hall's tournament games. The over is on a 10-4 run in Wildcats games played away from home. These teams shot the 3-ball very well in their last meeting and I expect more of the same in the rematch as they play their 3rd straight game in 3 days at Madison Square Garden in New York. 10* OVER the total in Villanova |
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03-16-19 | Memphis +8.5 v. Houston | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
AAC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 3 ET - I used the Tigers yesterday and they blasted a respectable Central Florida team. The Cougars are also off an impressive win but it came against a Huskies team that had a down season. I like this senior-laden Memphis team to give Houston all they can handle here. That said, we've got great line value with the points being offered. This one opened up at a 7.5 but is up to an 8.5 as of early this morning. The Tigers lost by double digits at Houston earlier this season but they've been playing much better on defense of late compared to how they were playing on that end of the floor in early January when they faced the Cougars. Memphis has held five straight opponents to 39.1% or less from the field. The Tigers held those 5 opponents to an average of 66 points per game and, keep in mind, Memphis is averaging a solid 81 points per game on the other end of the floor. The point is that the Tigers are currently getting the job done on both ends of the floor. Memphis is 7-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, the Tigers are 8-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. I look for Houston's record to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've played a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* MEMPHIS |
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03-16-19 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Michigan State | 55-67 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #605 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 1 ET - Of course the Spartans have had the Badgers number but do you think the odds makers aren't aware of that as well? This line has gone from an opener of 4.5 to as high as a 6.5 as of early Saturday morning and I am grabbing the valuable points here. In what should be a defensive-minded grinder, I expect having the dog getting generous points will prove to be the value play. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. In that home loss earlier last month Wisconsin only made 5 of 12 from the free throw line and just 6 of 20 from beyond the arc. Those two factors, of course, were keys in the 8 point loss. The Badgers are on a 10-4 ATS run in March games. Michigan State dropped to 1-4 ATS their last 5 conference tournament games with their non-covering win versus Ohio State yesterday. 8* WISCONSIN |
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03-15-19 | Auburn -8 v. South Carolina | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
SEC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs South Carolina Gameocks @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers lost their match-up at South Carolina in the regular season. In that match-up the Gamecocks Chris Silva had a season high 32 points and made 11 of 12 from the field. The rest of the team made only 19 of 52 attempts from the field. Also, the fact that game was at home also makes a difference. Though Silva had a big game in his road finale too, his 8 prior games away from home saw him average only 10.1 points per game. As you can see he is much more likely to be closer to 10 points in this game than the 32 he scored in the first meeting. Yes, the Gamecocks ended up being the higher seed in the SEC Tourney but the Tigers are the ranked team and for good reason. I look for them to blast South Carolina in the rematch. The Gamecocks have been held to 40% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have shot over 45.2% in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for Auburn to have their physicality on the increase throughout this tourney and they showed that in their win over Missouri yesterday. The Tigers know they need that again here against Silva and Company and I expect it to be on full display as they get payback big here! The Gamecocks have a strong ATS streak against the Tigers but it ends here. Auburn is the much better team this season and the first game was truly an aberration. The Tigers are on an 11-6 ATS run when playing with road loss revenge. South Carolina is 14-25 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. That is a long-term trend but the point is that oftentimes it proves better for momentum if you keep playing and sometimes rest leads to rust. The fact that Auburn was in action yesterday arguably could end up giving them the edge in this rematch with the rusty Gamecocks. 10* AUBURN |
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03-15-19 | Memphis +3 v. UCF | 79-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #793 Friday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 2:30 ET - Two years ago the Tigers didn't just lose to the Knights in the conference tourney, they got blasted by a 30 point margin. How unlikely was that? Memphis was an underdog in the same range (2.5 to 3) as they are for this game. In other words, it was totally unexpected. This is the Tigers first chance for conference tourney revenge since that ugly defeat. This season Memphis and UCF split their games. However, the Knights won their match-up at home by 7 points thanks to outscoring the Tigers by 12 points at the free throw line. Memphis won their home game by 20 points and each team got to the line an equivalent 14 times in that game. In other words, the Tigers truly held the upper hand in the two meetings between these teams this season but the line does not reflect that. As a result, I am happy to grab the significant underdog value being offered in this one. Memphis is 6-2 ATS this season in games in which the posted total is in the 140s. Central Florida, when facing a team that averages 77 points or more and past the midway point of a season, has gone an ugly 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS! Look for the senior-laden Tigers to hold the edge here as their offensive firepower and experience proves to be too much in this one. 8* MEMPHIS |
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03-14-19 | St. Joe's -119 v. Duquesne | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Atlantic 10 #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #693 Thursday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6 ET - This is another one that many view as an odd line. The Hawks opened up as the favorite here even though St Joseph's is 5 games over .500 while the Dukes are 7 games over the .500 mark on the season! Must be some kind of huge mistake by the oddsmakers, right? Of course that is not the case and the fact is that we've got great value here with the small line on a St Joseph's team that has played a tougher schedule in comparison with Duquesne this season. Also, the Hawks have revenge for a 1 point road loss to the Dukes two months ago. Duquesne has allowed opponents to shoot 49% or better in 4 of their last 6 games. St Joseph's has held their last 4 opponents to a combined shooting percentage under 40% from the field. The Hawks went 11-5 SU this season as a favorite. Also, St Joseph's is a long-term 20-13 ATS when off a loss in conference action including 4-1 ATS their last 5. The Dukes are on a 2-5 SU and ATS run in games played on a neutral court. Long-term Duquesne is an awful 22-42 ATS and 16-51 SU in games played in the month of March. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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03-14-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +2.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #684 Thursday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - The earliest line on this game yesterday was a -1 on Creighton. The Bluejays have since risen to as high as a 3-point favorite in this one. I'll gladly fade this move. Both these teams enter on hot streaks but this is another match-up where I like the difference in terms of recent play on defense. Xavier is 6-1 SU and ATS their last 7 games and the Musketeers have allowed approximately 40% from the field in those 7 games. Creighton enters this game on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS run their last 5 games but the Bluejays have allowed approximately 45% from the field in their last 6 games. Another key to the value here is that the Musketeers Naji Marshall has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Bluejays are playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen Creighton go 1-5 SU and ATS this season! The Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. That stretch includes a SU loss but ATS cover in the 2017 Big East tournament and now Xavier gets their shot at tourney revenge. I fully expect them to take advantage of it. 8* XAVIER |
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03-13-19 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 145.5 | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - These teams just met at Wyoming on Saturday and the game totaled 169 points. The Lobos totaled 81 points and the amazing aspect of that is that New Mexico had 7 players that played 17 minutes or more in the game and 4 of the 7 combined to make just 9 of their 35 field goal attempts. Even with poor shooting from 4 guys whom each had at least 7 field goal attempts, New Mexico still put up 81 points on the scoreboard. Both the Lobos and Cowboys are two of the worst teams defensively in the Mountain West in terms of points allowed. Also, Wyoming has built up confidence (particularly on the offensive end) based on recent performances. The Cowboys have won back to back games for the first time this season and Wyoming has averaged scoring 80.3 points per game their last 3 games. On the season the Lobos have averaged 76 points per game so I expect plenty of points in this one. New Mexico has averaged 92 points per game in their last 4 meetings with Wyoming. The Cowboys have scored 75 points or more in 3 of last 4 meetings with Lobos. Also, in the last 3 meetings NOT played at New Mexico (either at Wyoming or at neutral site) the Cowboys have averaged scoring 92.3 points per game! The over is 3-0 in Wyoming's last 3 games overall. The over is 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total of 148 or less. This one falls into that category and after opening as high as a 147 has dropped to as low as a 145.5 as of early this morning. That is a value add I won't pass up. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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03-13-19 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | 56-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Wednesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 2:30 ET - Of course the Hokies have the advantage of being rested while the Hurricanes are in a back to back spot after beating Wake Forest yesterday. However, lets not forget the impact of Justin Robinson's foot injury for the Hokies. The Virginia Tech senior guard, prior to his injury, scored 17 points in just 19 minutes in the first meeting with Miami. He has been out since then and, prior to their season finale (also against Miami), the Hokies had won just 5 of 9 games with the 4 most recent of those victories all coming by a single digit margin. Yes, I know the Hokies beat the Canes by a double digit margin in the season finale but that game was at Virginia Tech and the Hurricanes went just 6 of 29 from beyond the arc while the Hokies knocked down 14 of 26 threes. Of course that means that Virginia Tech had 24 more points (in a 14 point win!) from 3-point land even though they took 3 less shots. The fact is that the Hokies are the better 3-point shooting team BUT they are not that much better! Virginia Tech simply was extra hot in their two wins over the Canes this season. However, the Hurricanes have now shot the ball quite well from beyond the arc in 6 of their last 9 games. Also, Miami had defended the 3-ball quite well in 7 of 9 games prior to the Hokies big effort against them last week. I also like the fact that the Hurricanes are 13-4 ATS this season when playing with road loss revenge. Virginia Tech is just 1-4 ATS in Wednesday games this season. Also, the Hokies are 3-8 ATS this season when off a win in conference action. 8* MIAMI |
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03-12-19 | Notre Dame -122 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2:30 ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line opened up at a -2.5 on Notre Dame even though the Fighting Irish went just 3-15 in ACC action while the Yellow Jackets finished the ACC regular season campaign with a 6-12 mark. Of course this means the odds makers made an egregious mistake, right? That is what the betting markets would lead you to believe as they drove the line down to as low as a -1 and the money line (best play here in my opinion) fell down to the -120 range. In typical contrarian fashion I am against the move here. Keep in mind, Notre Dame only split with Georgia Tech this season but the Irish had 13 more field goal attempts than the Jackets in the road match-up and 10 more in the home match-up. The reasons for the advantage in attempts were edges in rebounding and in turnovers. I look for those areas to continue to be factors here and the Fighting Irish will take advantage of their additional scoring opportunities to advance in the ACC tourney. The Irish went 11-3 SU this season as a favorite. In the past 2+ seasons the Fighting Irish are 21-3 SU when facing a team with a losing record. The Yellow Jackets are playing with road loss revenge here but that is a situation that has seen them go 1-8 SU this season! Georgia Tech is also 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on a neutral court. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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03-12-19 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -6.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line has gone from 7.5 to 6.5 as many are finding it hard to trust the Hurricanes in this price range. However, they become a little easier to trust when you consider that Wake Forest is on a 4-14 SU run and one of those four wins was when they hosted Miami. The Canes have road loss revenge here and that is a situation that has seen Miami go 12-4 ATS in recent seasons! Also, 12 of the aforementioned 14 Demon Deacons losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points! The Hurricanes are off a loss by a double digit margin at Virginia Tech but Miami entered that game on a 6-3 ATS run. Also, 11 of the Canes 13 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Wake Forest is a long-term 8-21 SU (and 9-20 ATS) in conference tournament games and I look for those trends to resume here as they get bounced in the first round. 8* MIAMI |
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03-11-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Monday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Central Michigan just played at Western Michigan Friday. Though the game was decided by a 7 point margin, the Chippewas led the game by 15 points at the half. Keep in mind, this followed a 21 point beating that the Chips put on the Broncos when they hosted them in early February. Now, in conference tournament action, the Chippewas again are the host and another beating is likely here. Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Chips are 11-4 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. This line dropped from an early opener of 11 down to a 9.5 as of overnight heading into Monday. Western Michigan, versus teams that average 77 points or more, has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Broncos are a long-term 7-14 ATS in first round tournament games. Western Michigan also is a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of March. All signs point to a home blowout here. I normally don't lay big points but the edges here are too strong. Keep in mind the Chippewas won the turnover battle 20-8 when these teams met here last month! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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03-10-19 | Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 141.5 | Top | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #839 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Connecticut Huskies @ 2 ET - Two of the worst teams in the American Athletic Conference matched up in this season finale. Allowing too many points has been a big part of the problem for both teams. The Huskies tend to forget their defense at home when they have hit the road this season! Connecticut held the Shockers to 65 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game but previously had allowed 77 points per game in their 4 prior road games. The Huskies gave up at least 73 points in all 4 of those road games. As for East Carolina, they've allowed 72 points or more in 7 straight games. In those 7 games, the Pirates have allowed an average of 81.6 points per game. Look for both teams to play very loose in this season finale. Certainly the Pirates are the lesser of the two teams but East Carolina's games had gone over the total in 4 straight games prior to their ugly loss at Wichita State. In those 4 games the Pirates averaged scoring 75.3 points per game. Look for both teams to get into the 70s in this one as it flies over the total. On the season Connecticut is allowing 78 points per game when on the road. The Pirates are allowing 74 points on the season in all their games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in East Carolina |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati -2 | 85-69 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ Noon ET - The Cougars already celebrated their big home win over SMU Thursday as that clinched them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title and #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. I expect Cincinnati to prove to be the hungrier team here as they can tie Houston for the regular season conference title by notching a win here. The Cougars cut the nets down at the Fertitta Center after their win over the Mustangs Thursday. The Bearcats are seeking revenge for a loss at Houston last month. Look for home court to be a huge difference-maker here. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU at home this season. The line on this game is only a -2 on the Bearcats. The fact that Houston is higher-ranked and also has the better record means they will still attract plenty of attention from the markets here and that is helping keeping this number very manageable on the Cats. Cincinnati had 13 more shots from the field in the loss at Houston earlier this season but the shots simply were not falling for the Bearcats. Look for them to fall much better on their home floor early Sunday. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU after being held to 60 points or less in a game. Also, the Bearcats long-term run at home is 49-2 SU. Houston is 0-2 ATS this month. 8* CINCINNATI |
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03-09-19 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 155.5 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 9:30 ET - Many will look at this total and feel it is too big but I see plenty of value here with the over. Memphis has locked in their seeding for the upcoming AAC Tourney and now at home on senior day. The Tigers are loaded with seniors and will be able to play a loose and relaxed game with no pressure. That will equate to plenty of points in this one as Tulsa certainly is fine with a fast-paced style as well. The first meeting between these teams this season saw the teams combine for 174 points. The Golden Hurricane scored 95 in that game and they enter this game off a confidence-boosting win versus East Carolina. They put up 91 points in that game and even though the Pirates are a bad team, having a huge performance like that does wonders for the confidence of scorers. In other words, look for Tulsa to again be lighting up the scoreboard in this one but, at the same time, Memphis is going to have a huge game in their home finale. The Tigers are off a bit of a grinder at Cincinnati but that is typical Bearcats basketball. Now Memphis will go back into run and gun mode for this one and the Tigers had averaged 90 points per game in their 3 games prior to the loss to Cincy. The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. Tulsa is 4-0 to the over this season in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Tigers are 8-3 to the over in Saturday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Michigan State Wolverines @ 8 ET - Both teams have some injury situations but here is the key with that. The lone guy on the report for Michigan is Charles Matthews. Yes he is a starter and a solid player but he struggled and went 1 for 8 from the field with, overall, a very ugly stat line on the game, when these teams met two weeks ago in Ann Arbor. That was his 2nd straight poor game and now, without him, Michigan has won back to back games and played very well. In the loss to the Spartans two weeks ago the Wolverines actually had 10 more field goal attempts than Michigan State but were done in by some sub-par shooting and Matthews was a key contributor to that. With the Spartans currently without Joshua Langford for the season plus Nick Ward (hand) and Kyle Ahrens (back) also having issues, I would argue that the Wolverines injury situation is currently much better than that of the Spartans. At the same time, the fact this game is at Michigan State means we get additional line value as we can grab Michigan as a significant dog here. I'll gladly challenge the Spartans to win this game by more than a single possession (current line 3.5) as the fact is I expect the Wolverines to get their revenge. Michigan had won 3 straight in this series prior to the loss two weeks ago. Michigan State is on a 6-14 ATS run in Saturday games. The Spartans are on a 4-8 ATS run in March games. Michigan is on a 17-2 SU run in March games. The Wolverines also are on a sparking 14-6 ATS run as an underdog! 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-09-19 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State +2.5 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #628 Saturday 8* Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - This is a revenge game for the Red Raiders and Texas Tech has been the much hotter team in recent weeks in comparison with the Cyclones. Also, the Red Raiders are highly ranked. That said, the odds makers opened this line at roughly a pick'em (earliest lines that came out) and, as expected, everyone is jumping all over Texas Tech in this match-up. You know what usually happens when that happens! With that said, in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing home dog Iowa State in this one. The Cyclones are expected to have Marial Shayok back for this game. Even if he doesn't play I look for Iowa State to get the win on their home floor for senior day. Keep in mind, Shayok is a senior. If he is able to go, he's going hard for this for senior day. If he can't go, the rest of the players go hard for the senior who could not get on the floor for this game. Even though the Cyclones have been on a bit of a downward cycle, they also know they can play spoiler here as the Red Raiders are seeking a win and hoping to secure the Big 12 regular season title. Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS (including 0-2 this season) when they're playing a game with home loss revenge. Iowa State is 12-3 SU in home games this season. Also, the Cyclones are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when they are off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. 8* IOWA STATE |
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03-08-19 | Minnesota v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - With the Terrapins off back to back losses and the Golden Gophers off back to back wins, the set up here is perfect. We're getting value with a number kept lower than it should be considering this is a situation where Minnesota should get blown out on the road at Maryland. The Terrapins are 6-2 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Also, Maryland has not lost 3 straight games all season. Keep in mind, the Terrapins last two games were at Penn State and then hosting Michigan. Certainly those are not easy match-ups. Also, Maryland is now hosting a Minnesota team that, prior to winning their most recent road game, had lost 6 in a row away from home. The average margin of defeat in those road losses for the Golden Gophers was 11 points! Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS as road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. In games with posted total ranging from 131 to 139.5 points, the Terrapins are on a sparkling 9-1 ATS run. The host in this one is the much better shooting team and also the better team defensively. Factoring all that in there is great value being offered here with this very manageable line. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-07-19 | Temple +1.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET - While it is true that the Owls have a huge game on deck, they are also well aware of the fact that the game versus Central Florida will become much less important if they don't take care of business at Connecticut. The Huskies certainly have not been the same team since Jalen Adams got hurt. UConn is coming off a win versus South Florida Sunday but that victory was preceded by 6 straight losses. Dating all the back to December 22nd, the Huskies have managed back to back wins only ONCE! You can see that, after the win over the Bulls, the odds favor a loss here versus the Owls. As for Temple, they are off a non-covering win versus Tulane. What is noteworthy about the Owls season is they have had only one standalone victory this entire season. In other words, when they get a W it is normally the beginning of a nice streak for Temple and they are hell-bent on closing the season with 3 straight victories. Before even worrying about the Saturday match-up with UCF, the Owls know they need this one. All signs point to them getting it. The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Huskies are 1-3 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. Connecticut is also 6-12 SU (and 5-13 ATS) when in that situation the last few seasons. UConn has been held to 63 points or less in 5 straight games and also managed only 63 in the first match-up with Temple this season. The Owls have scored 70 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-06-19 | LSU +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Wednesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Tigers. Not only did they lost to the Gators in their meetings each of the last two seasons, LSU also lost this season's first match-up (in OT) versus Florida two weeks ago. The fact is that the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the road in SEC action this season and have been playing extremely well overall with only two losses in their 19 games dating back to mid-December. The Tigers have one of the best point guards in the nation and behind him is a freshmen who played very well during his recent two game absence. The depth of LSU at the point is a key to why this offense functions as well as it does. While the Gators are averaging only 68.3 points per game on the season, the Tigers have averaged 81.8 points per game this season. The Gators are off a home loss to Georgia. Of course that should mean a bounce back is expected here. However, Florida has been on a money-burning stretch for an extended stretch now as they've failed to cover 9 of their last 12 games. LSU is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Gators are 3-11 ATS in home games this season. Florida motivated here by hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid this season but Tigers highly motivated by revenge as well as being in the driver's seat for finishing at the top of the SEC standings for the regular season. 10* LSU |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler OVER 138 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Butler Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6 ET - Butler's game at Villanova stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 4 straight games. All signs point to the over trend resuming here. The Bulldogs have allowed 49% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, Butler has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. On Tuesday they are hosting a Xavier team that has been red hot with their shooting. The Musketeers have averaged well over 50% from the field in their last 4 games and also have been consistently knocking down close to 40% of their threes during this stretch. The over only went 2-2 in those 4 games and Xavier is on a long-term under trend but that is helping keep this total lower than it should be. In fact it opened up as high as 140 but is now down to a 138 as of early Tuesday morning. This has led to even more value with the over. The last 6 meetings between these teams have seen 5 go over the total. The Musketeers are on a long-term 9-5 run to the over in games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, Xavier is a long-term 9-5 to the over as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off a win against a Big East foe this season the Musketeers are 5-2 to the over. Also, there is a "tightener" in all this and that is that Xavier is a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road in a game with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. Butler is 8-1 to the over the last 9 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. In home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points, the Bulldogs are on a 6-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Butler |
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03-04-19 | Texas v. Texas Tech -8 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #868 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are still without the suspended Kerwin Roach. Though they won Saturday versus Iowa State, they lost their two prior games without him. I know this spread may seem "big" but it is not without support. The Longhorns and Red Raiders have a huge rivalry and the Horns had dominated Texas Tech in games played in Austin prior to the Red Raiders road win earlier this season. How does that relate to this game? The fact is that Texas Tech won't hesitate if given the chance to blowout the Longhorns in Lubbock. I feel this one is set up perfect for that to happen as the Horns do battle without their leading scorer. Texas has scored very well in their last two games but I consider that an aberration as they shot the ball ridiculously well. Prior those two games the Horns had averaged just 66.7 points in their 3 prior games and now they face the top defense in the Big 12. Texas Tech enters this game having won 7 in a row and 6 of those wins came by at least a dozen points! Though the Red Raiders most recent home win came by just 4 points, their 4 most recent home wins prior to that each came by 19 points or more! The Longhorns are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS their last 13 games with one day of rest or less between games. The Red Raiders, same parameters, are 8-4 SU and ATS their last dozen and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season! Additionally, Texas Tech is 7-0 SU (and 5-1-1 ATS) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons. Red Raiders are highly motivated for #1 spot in Big 12 and put a beating on the short-handed Horns here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-04-19 | Virginia -5.5 v. Syracuse | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #863 Monday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This line opened at a 7 and is now down to a 5.5 as of early Monday morning. We're getting great line value here with the road favorite. This game carries plenty of meaning for the Cavs as they can maintain the #1 ACC spot by winning their final two games. That's because Virginia has the tiebreaker over the Tar Heels by virtue of beating North Carolina earlier this season. As for the Orange, certainly Syracuse can be a tough team and that is particularly true at home. However, Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are known for giving the Orange problems and I expect that to continue here. The Cavs are 9-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Syracuse is 1-4 SU and ATS this season against teams that allow 60 points or less per game. Virginia, of course, is known for the stifling defense. As for the Orange, they are actually off a great effort on the defensive end in their win over Wake Forest. However, Syracuse is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or less points. 8* VIRGINIA |
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03-03-19 | Wichita State v. SMU OVER 139 | 67-55 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #819 Sunday 8* OVER the total in SMU Mustangs vs Wichita State Shockers @ 2 ET - SMU is off a very low-scoring game but that had a lot to do with who they faced as they got involved in a defensive battle with Cincinnati. Keep in mind, prior to this, the Mustangs were on a 6-2 run to the over. Also, when the Mustangs match up with the Shockers it has been points aplenty. The 3 meetings between these teams all went over the total and all 3 games totaled over 160 points! Wichita State, like SMU, also enters this game off on under but only 2 of their 7 prior games had stayed under the total. The Shockers had a poor shooting game versus Connecticut but previously had shot the ball very well in 3 of their 4 prior games. Look for the hot shooting to resume here. This total has dropped to as low as a 139 but is a little higher in some books (and likely will rise again) and Wichita State is 9-2 to the over in road games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. 8* OVER the total in SMU |
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03-03-19 | Tulane v. Temple OVER 146 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - There is unlikely to be very much defensive intensity in this match-up. The Owls are one of the top teams in the AAC while the Green Wave are the worst team in the conference. We're getting a little extra line value here because this season's first match-up between these teams stayed under the total. Keep in mind, the over was on a 5-0 run prior to that. Tulane is also a long-term 17-5 to the over when playing with home loss revenge. The Green Wave also are 4-1 to the over this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Temple is 9-4 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Owls are a long-term 4-1 to the over when facing teams that allow an average of 77 points or more per game. The Green Wave enter this game having allowed 82.3 points per game their last 7 games. Tulane has averaged a respectable 73.7 points per game their last 3 games. Temple has scored 81 points or more in 5 of its last 6 home games in American Athletic Conference action. The Owls have allowed 74.6 points per game their last 5 games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 150s or even 160s early Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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03-02-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Clemson Tigers @ 6 ET - Clemson is at home here and they've gone 12-3 at home this season while North Carolina is 10-3 away from home on the season. Of course that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be. I expect the Tar Heels to blast the Tigers here. There are a number of key factors that support that theory. One of which is that UNC lost here by 4 last season. Clemson hit 15 of 30 threes in that game. That had a lot to do with it and the Tar Heels had won 10 straight over the Tigers before that game. In other words, this is a big-time payback spot. In games against the ACC teams that currently have 20 wins, North Carolina lost to Virginia but beat Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State (twice), and Florida State. Now lets talk about how Clemson has done in facing top tier teams. The Tigers did beat Virginia Tech but they have lost to Florida State (twice), Duke, Virginia, and NC State. You can easily see that when it comes time to step in big games this season the Tar Heels have risen to the occasion while the Tigers have faltered. Look for that to be the case again Saturday. UNC still has a shot to finish at the top of the ACC if they win out and, if you were worried about motivation here, the fact the Tar Heels lost here last season dismisses that notion. As for Clemson they are surely motivated too but they have proven time and time again this season they can not beat the top tier teams in the ACC. In fact, I should have mentioned the other two 18-win teams - Syracuse and Louisville. Clemson lost to both of them as well. So the over-rated Tigers are 1-7 against top ACC competition. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse and went 1-1 against Louisville. So the deserved #5 team in the nation is a combined 7-2 against top ACC competition. Considering these factors, plus revenge, plus a short number to lay here, and we've got tremendous value here with the road favorite. Clemson is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are 9-2 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa -8.5 | 86-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #698 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 5 ET - Iowa’s head coach Fran McCaffery has been suspended for two games for berating an official after the ugly loss to Ohio State in the Hawkeyes most recent game. The good news for the Hawkeyes is the assistant coaches who will take over for the next two games include guys with head coaching experience and they've also each been on his staff the past 9 seasons. Additionally, McCaffery is still leading practices and film sessions and will even be in the building for this game as there is a ceremony for Hawkeyes senior Baer taking place Saturday. Of course Iowa is going to be hungry for multiple reasons here. They're not happy about the fact they just lost by 20 to Ohio State and certainly that led to the anger which further led to their coach's tirade which further led to his suspension. The Hawkeyes want to respond here after all the ugliness from the Buckeyes game and this is the final home game for Iowa. Where they hold a big edge here in this match-up is not only the home floor factor but also the fact that the Scarlet Knights struggle to defend the 3. Also, the set up is perfect with Iowa off an ugly loss and Rutgers off a rare win. The Scarlet Knights had lost 5 of 6 prior to winning their most recent game. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, Rutgers hasn't played since Sunday and they are 2-5 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Iowa is also 9-4 ATS in recent seasons when facing a team with a losing record. That is combined trends of 21-7 / 75% in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* IOWA |
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03-02-19 | Butler v. Villanova OVER 137 | 54-75 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #647 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Butler Bulldogs @ 2 ET - The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. While it is true that Wildcats have been having some shooting struggles recently, it is also true that they have allowed opponents to shoot an average of 50% from the field against them in their last 3 games. Also, being at home again here helps the Villanova offensive production and they've scored 80 points or more in each of their last 4 meetings with Butler. The Bulldogs enter this game on a 4-0 run to the over in their last 4 games. As a road dog of 6.5 to 9.5 points in recent seasons Butler has gone 2-0 to the over. Since December 1st, when the Wildcats enter a game off back to back unders and their line is in a range from pick'em to a favorite of any size, they have gone 4-0 to the over. Combined perfect trends of 15-0 in favor of another high-scoring game involving these Big East foes. 8* OVER the total in Villanova |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island v. Dayton -7 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Dayton Flyers vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The earliest number on this game was a -9 yesterday. As of this morning the line is down to a -7 on Dayton. I understand what the markets are looking at here. This is a revenge spot for the Rams considering the Flyers routed them on their home floor 3 weeks ago. However, the thought that Rhode Island automatically bounces back and gets the cover here is not that well-founded. The fact is last season the Rams beat the Flyers by double digits in both games! In other words, how these games play out has a lot to do with the talent of each team each season and, this year, it is the Flyers turn to get the sweep! They lost by 25 at Rhode Island last season and also were beaten by the Rams by 14 in Dayton. Again, the same season revenge is over-played. If anything, it is the Flyers (the far superior team this season) that really has revenge here as they remember what happened on their home floor last season. Another key to the value here is Dayton is off a game against one of the Atlantic Ten's worst teams and has another weak foe on deck. In other words, the Flyers are fully focused on the Rams here. Dayton has been shooting the ball extremely well and that includes from beyond the arc particularly when on their home floor. Rhode Island is off a rare win where they shot the ball well but they faced a bad George Washington team. Prior to that victory, the Rams were held to 37.5% or less from the field in 5 straight games! RI went 0-5 SU and ATS in those games. Rhode Island is 2-9 SU and ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their 8 line games against teams with a losing record this season. Home blowout on tap in this one! 10* DAYTON |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -4.5 | 80-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Friday 8* Brown Bears (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 5 ET - This line has dropped from an opener of 7.5 yesterday to a 4.5 as of early this morning. Brown is 11-2 at home this season. Columbia is 2-9 on the road this season. Those are SU numbers and of course we need to cover the spread here. But those are still powerful numbers and with the line now becoming very short on this game, I am comfortable that we'll get the ATS win. The Lions are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and those 7 losses came by an average margin of defeat of 8 points per loss. The Bears are off a 3 point win over Dartmouth Saturday but that is just the 2nd time in 11 home wins that this season that the margin of victory was less than 5 points. Brown's other 2 Ivy League home wins had each come by 8 or more points. Columbia allows 40% three pointers on the road this season while the Bears are knocking down 37.4% of their threes at home this season and have been particularly hot from beyond the arc in recent home games. The line move here has led to great line value with the small home favorite. Lay it! 8* BROWN |
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #667 Thursday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - They were ahead by 17 points with under 3:10 to play. They were ahead by 8 points with under 1:20 to play. They were ahead by 6 points with under 45 seconds to play. They were ahead by 4 points with under 35 seconds to play. They ended up losing the game by a single point. Of course I am talking about the Monarchs first match-up with the Roadrunners which also took place at UTSA and was played in late January. That makes this a major revenge spot for Old Dominion as that game was truly one of the most insane finishes of the entire college basketball season and the Monarchs were on the wrong end of it. Because this game is again at San Antonio we're getting line value here as we don't even have to lay any points to have Old Dominion with big-time revenge on their side. Why are they again meeting in San Antonio? It is because Conference USA made a decision to go to a bonus play-in system this season which then sets the seeding for the upcoming conference tourney. There are 3 groups of seeds and Old Dominion and UTSA are in the group that is seeded 1 through 5. That means Monarchs and Roadrunners can each finish as high as #1 or as low as #5 in the seeding for the upcoming tourney. Old Dominion already won their first game Saturday. For UTSA, this is their first game of the play-in schedule. Not only do the Monarchs badly want revenge here, they also are going for the #1 seed in the tourney. Old Dominion has proven themselves as the top team in CUSA this season and they will show that on the floor in San Antonio tonight. The Monarchs have won 11 of their last 12 games and the lone loss was the ridiculous 1-point defeat at UTSA. The Roardrunners are just 5-5 their last 10 games and that includes that miracle win over Old Dominion. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA is on a 10-game winning streak on their home floor. But that is all the more incentive for the better team in this match-up as they get payback in a major way tonight. Also, the Roadrunners will be very rusty here as they have not played since the 16th - a span of nearly two weeks! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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02-28-19 | Xavier v. St. John's -5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 8* St John's Red Storm (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - This is a final home game situation for the Red Storm and sets up extremely well. I know the Musketeers have been hot but I don't see them being able to rise up again here. After 4 straight upset wins, including knocking off the defending champs in their most recent game, Xavier falls short here. The Musketeers have had St John's number in recent seasons but last season they led them by only 4 at the half in Xavier before going to out to blow them away in the 2nd half and win by 28 points! The Red Storm have not forgotten that embarrassing defeat and now get a chance for revenge at home. St John's has only lost one game at Carnesecca Arena and that was a game in which leading scorer Shamorie Ponds did not play. I am aware of the fact that 2nd-leading scorer Mustapha Heron misssed the most recent game for the Red Storm and is questionable with a knee injury here. However, I don't expect him to miss this final home game situation and feel he merely needed to rest the knee. Now having not played a game in over a week, Heron should be good to go here. However, even if he misses this one, St John's just knocked off Seton Hall without him on Saturday. Many will look at this game and feel that the points look too big but this game is priced this way with good reason. Even with some recent success, the Musketeers are still just 3-6 SU and ATS in road games this season. The Red Storm, including games both at Carnesecca Arena and Madison Square Garden, are 13-3 at home this season. 10 of Xavier's 13 losses this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Lay it! 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-27-19 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - This is a great value situation because everyone is a little down on the Vols right now while the Rebels have been getting a little extra attention thanks to some recent winning. Here is the key with those Ole Miss wins however. The Rebels have won 5 of their last 6 games but 2 of the wins came against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-13 in SEC action! The most impressive win would be over Auburn (7-7 in SEC) but the other two of the five wins came against A & M (5-10) and Missouri (3-12). In other words, Ole Miss has been helped by their schedule of late. As for the Volunteers, they have faced a tough schedule and the blowout loss at Kentucky recently is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. Also, Tennessee is off a very tight OT loss at LSU in their most recent games. So while it is true that the Vols have lost 2 of their last 3 games it is also true that those defeats came against a pair of teams that are EACH 13-2 in SEC action! Prior to the SU and ATS loss at LSU, Tennessee had been a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. They get back on track in a big way here against an Ole Miss team that is over-valued right now. The Rebels have been a hot ATS team this season but they are on a long-term 8-14 ATS run in February games and the fade is on here! The Volunteers have won and covered 3 straight against Mississippi and get the job done again here in a road rout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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02-27-19 | Maryland v. Penn State OVER 135.5 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins @ 6:30 ET - The over is 5-0 in the Nittany Lions last 5 games. They allowed 76 points at Illinois Saturday. Prior to that, Penn State's 4 previous games in this stretch saw them allow a combined 50% from the field. Game after game the Lions have proven susceptible on defense and now they face a dangerous and very athletic Terrapins team that will score very well on them. The key to the value with the over here is that Maryland is in a sandwich spot and I suspect their defense, as a result of the situation, is not going to be at its best in terms of intensity. The Terrapins are off a big home win versus Ohio State and have another home game, a huge one, on deck versus Michigan. This is a tough spot for Maryland and all the stellar results on defense that we've seen from them in recent games are likely to take a hit here. Keep in mind, Penn State is playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive end of the floor. The Nittany Lions have scored an average of 85 points per game in their last 3 home games and YES that includes backing out their overtime period versus Purdue. That is the other impressive thing about the PSU scoring surge at home is that it has included games against the Boilermakers, Nebraska, and Michigan. Those teams collectively allow an average of about 63 points per game but the Nittany Lions blew those averages away. The over is 14-7 for Penn State when they are off a win versus a conference rival and that includes 3-0 this season. Also, the Nittany Lions are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. That game totaled just 125 points at Maryland but this game will play out much differently per all the above. 8* OVER the total in Penn State |
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02-26-19 | Toledo +1 v. Ball State | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (+) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Rockets have only lost 2 home games all season. Why am I mentioning home games when they are on the road here? I mention it because one of the two home losses Toledo had was to the best team in the MAC, Buffalo. However, the other home floor defeat was at the hands of these Cardinals. In other words, it is payback time. Actually that payback has been a long time coming too! Ball State has beaten the Rockets five straight times. Some will look at this line and say it is easy just to take the Cardinals on their home floor to get the win. As you know, nothing is ever that easy and I love the value here we're getting with revenge-minded Toledo. Keep in mind, Ball State has been struggling for an extended stretch. The Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 13 games SU and 10 of their last 13 ATS. Ball State has been held under 40% from the field in 3 straight games and has shot 19% from 3-point land in their last 3 games as well. In other words, the Cardinals are slumping badly. The Rockets are offering significant value here because they are on an 0-3 ATS run at the betting window and that has the betting markets holding a negative opinion of them at the moment. Keep in mind this is a Toledo team that has already surpassed the 20 win mark this season. Additionally, since early January back to back losses to Ball State and Buffalo, the Rockets have won 9 of their past 12 games! Toledo is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. When off a SU win versus a conference foe this season, the Rockets have gone 6-2 SU and ATS. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 or less points. That includes Ball State going 0-3 ATS and SU this season in this situation. More of the same here. 10* TOLEDO |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #862 Monday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - I successfully played against the Noles on Saturday with North Carolina and the Tar Heels delivered the beating I expected. Now it is the Seminoles turn, however, to be on the right side of a thrashing. To many bettors this line will look to big but Florida State should win this game by 20. Certainly FSU is fired up and they have but one loss on their home floor this season while Notre Dame has managed only 2 road wins this season. You can see who is very likely to win this game but, now, what about the all-important cover? As long-time followers know I rarely lay big points. When I do it has to be a situation where my team is not going to take their foot off the gas. That is the case here. Florida State didn't just lose on Saturday, they got embarrassed. Back home now with a quick turnaround chance to redeem themselves and with the eyes of the College Basketball World on them, the Seminoles are going to put on a show in this one! They are highly talented, so much moreso than the Irish, and had won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) prior to the loss to UNC. As for Notre Dame, they are on a 3-11 SU run and 4-11 ATS run. 3 of their last 6 losses have come by 15 points or more. The Seminoles last 3 wins all came by 13 points or more. The average margin of those victories was 19 points. This line was as high as 13.5 and has dropped to a 12.5 in early market activity. I like the value here in a game I expect FSU to win by 20. The Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS last 12 times they were off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. The Seminoles are a long-term 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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02-24-19 | Villanova v. Xavier OVER 136 | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #827 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 1:30 ET - Great value with this low total in my opinion. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 154 points and the posted total on this one has gone from a 137.5 to a 136 as of early game day morning. I like the fact that Villanova is off back to back losses (and has lost 3 of their last 4 games) and is very hungry for a strong performance. The Wildcats won't take their foot off the gas in this game even if they end up getting a double digit lead. Based on the current line (Nova -6), you can see that is a distinct possibility. As for Xavier, they aren't exactly known for their defense. The Musketeers are allowing 71.6 points per game this season. Also, Xavier has allowed an average of 90 points per game in their last 3 games against the Wildcats. That might have you wondering if one of those games went to OT. No, none of the 3 games were OT games. Musketeers simply won't be able to stop the fired up Wildcats here but I do look for Xavier to score very well. The Musketeers are averaging 75.5 points per game at home this season and the Wildcats defense has not been as strong this season. Villanova is allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last 6 road games! The over is 7-3 this season in Wildcats road games. Also, when off a loss in conference action, Villanova is 6-3 to the over their last 9 games. Xavier is 4-1 to the over this season when off a win in conference action and they come into this game with some added confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Also, the Musketeers are 9-4 to the over their last 13 games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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02-24-19 | SMU v. UCF -6.5 | 48-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Central Florida Knights (-) vs SMU Mustangs @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and has now dropped to as low as a 6.5 as of early game day morning. That means additional value here in what is a great spot for Central Florida. The Knights are coming off a loss at Cincinnati. That certainly holds significance here as UCF has not lost back to back games all season long! Central Florida did get the cover as a dog at Cincinnati but fell short of the SU win but the Knights have now covered 4 in a row ATS. They certainly have been heading the opposite direction of SMU. While the Mustangs are off a win and cover versus Connecticut Thursday, Southern Methodist had previously lost 7 of their last 8 SU and 9 of their last 11 ATS! Though the Mustangs have revenge here, they are 0-4 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. SMU is also 0-4 ATS when off a win in conference action! The Knights are a fantastic 29-3 SU and 21-9-2 ATS long-term when a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points here. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-23-19 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) vs Delaware Blue Hens @ 5 ET - One of the Blue Hens best players is guard Kevin Anderson. Keep in mind he was a Rookie of the Year for the Colonial Athletic Association. Anderson, a sophomore, has missed the past two games with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable here but even if Anderson does play how effective would he be? Keep in mind he has a history of knee problems as he missed all but 11 games of his rookie season because of a knee injury. Delaware certainly wants to be careful with him and his absence or ineffectiveness really hurts the Blue Hens. They have been without him the past two games and they had to go to double OT to beat a bad Towson team and then they followed that up by losing to James Madison. The Blue Hens beat the Dragons earlier this season at Delaware but only by a single point and Anderson had 16 points in that one point win. Without Anderson, or with him limited, the Blue Hens certainly could be in trouble with the rematch being at Drexel. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in this series. Granted there have been some tight wins in that run but the Dragons are favored by just 3 points here. That certainly bears mentioning as 9 of Delaware's 12 losses this season have come by 6 or more points this season. As for Drexel wins, only 1 of the 12 has come by a margin of less than 4 points. Look for the Blue Hens to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in Saturday games. The Dragons are 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season! 10* DREXEL |
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02-23-19 | Florida State v. North Carolina -7 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #668 Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:45 PM ET - This is classic case of misguided market perception. It also follows the zig zag theory where when the markets go one way it is actually best to go the other way. In this case, the entire sports betting world watched North Caroline beat Duke on Wednesday so, of course, now everyone wants to fade the Tar Heels in this perceived "flat spot". There are multiple problems with that theory. First off, there is no way in hell that UNC is going to be flat when they're on their home floor and facing a highly regarded and ranked opponent. Adding fuel to the fire for North Carolina here is the fact that they lost to FSU last season. It was a painful loss too as the Heels simply couldn't make their shots. UNC had TWENTY more shots from the field than the Seminoles but lost the game by a single point due to a rare off shooting night. Now, instead of playing this game at Florida State, the Tar Heels get the Noles at home. Contrary to market perception here (line opened at 8 and and has dropped as low as 6.5) there is plenty of reasoning to expect the Tar Heels win this game by a double digit margin in a home blowout! The Seminoles are a quality team for sure but they're averaging 73 points per game on the road this season and North Carolina is averaging 89 points per game at home this season. That's a 16-point variance and that is a margin of victory I expect here for the Tar Heels. Even if slightly sluggish in first half (off the Duke win) the Heels will be reminded at halftime of what happened at Florida State last season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State OVER 130 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #631 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri State Bears vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 2 ET - This total opened up in the 135 range and has dropped to the 130 range. When these teams met last month the posted total was 148. This is the type of major adjustment I look for. Of course the Bears have been trending under all season long but the odds makers factored that into their opening number (135) already. Now the betting markets have forced the total to adjust another 5 points. This is how you get extra value in a situation like this because the numbers don't bear out that this game will finish below 130. The Sycamores are off a RARE gem on defense where they allowed just 50 points but that game was at home. In their last 4 road games, Indiana State has allowed an average of 80.5 points per game! Missouri State is off an embarrassing 63-43 home loss. That's right, the Bears scored just 43 points in their most recent game and it was at home. Prior to that Missouri State had scored at least 65 points in each of their 4 prior games. So here you have a situation where the road team is off one of their best defensive performances (rare) of the season and the home team is off one of their worst offensive performances (rare) of the season. The result here is tremendous line value. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but prior to that these teams had gone over in 5 straight meetings. Also, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Bears were the host in this series. 10* OVER the total in Missouri State |
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02-22-19 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Friday 10* Top Play Penn Quakers (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 8 ET - The Quakers are still in the hunt for finishing in the top 4 of the Ivy League and qualifying for their post-season tourney. The Lions are the worst team in the conference by far. With Penn also entering this game off a tough OT loss to Harvard last week, the set up is perfect here for a home blowout win. Admittedly the Quakers have underachieved in Ivy League action thus far but they entered last weekend having had just one home game in league action thus far. Penn's schedule has been tough to say the least. They nearly pulled off the much-needed 2-0 sweep last weekend but back to back OT games (they beat Dartmouth in OT Friday) proved to be too much as you would expect. The Crimson are a tough team to face in a spot like that. Penn was 6-2 at home prior to losing to Harvard and now will take advantage of a facing a Columbia team that is just 1-8 in road games this season. I am well aware of the fact that the points seem high here but we've now seen this line drop from a 9 to a 7.5 and we're being offered great value here as the Quakers are ready for the much needed big blowout win that can keep their season alive. Keep in mind, Penn gets Cornell (5-3 in league action) tomorrow! I am well aware of the fact that both these teams are known for playing in tight games but I am calling for a win by double digits here as the Lions have shot poorly in back to back games and those were both at home! As for the Quakers, they had shot very well in 3 of their 4 games prior to the tough back to back OT situation. The hot shooting resumes tonight for the home team. 10* PENN |
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02-22-19 | Harvard v. Brown +2 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 8* Brown Bears (+) vs Harvard Crimson @ 7 ET - This line was as low as a pick'em and has now moved as high as a -2.5 on Harvard as of early this morning. The reason for the move is that the Crimson have dominated the Bears not just in recent seasons but an entire decade. Considering that as well as the fact that Harvard is 6-2 in Ivy League action and Brown is only 3-5 in conference action this season, a major mistake has been made here by the odds makers, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about that and the fact is that the Bears have been viewing this game as the perfect opportunity to finally end their long losing streak against Harvard. Keep in mind, the Crimson are only 5-6 on the road this season while Brown is a solid 9-2 at home. Also, Harvard's most recent game was an emotional OT win over Penn. Additionally, the Crimson have a huge game on deck tomorrow at Yale. Of course the Bulldogs have the best record (7-1) in the Ivy League and it will not be a surprise to see Harvard looking right past a Brown team they have dominated. Lets be honest here...the concern for the Crimson is already the 1-2 battle between themselves and Yale tomorrow. Perfect scenario for an upset win here. 8* BROWN |
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02-21-19 | UCF +8 v. Cincinnati | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Thursday Central Florida Knights (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Losing is one thing...getting completely annihilated is another thing altogether. The last time the Knights visited Cincinnati they found themselves down 33-13 at the half. UCF went on to lose that game 77 to 40. Central Florida went 0 for 14 from three point land and the Bearcats made 10 threes. Simply put, it was just one of those nights that can happen from time to time but, rest assured, the Knights haven't forgotten and they look to atone for that loss here. This is the first time these teams have met since that game and it is again in Cincinnati. While I don't necessarily expect an outright upset win here in terms of revenge for UCF, I do expect Central Florida to be much more competitive. That means great line value here with the spread on this game currently sitting at +8. Keep in mind, even though Cincinnati is 9-1 SU their last 10 games, the Bearcats only won 3 of those games by more than 8 points and one of those was by 11 and another by 10. In other words, there is every reason to believe that UCF will be "right there" with this number throughout this game and I believe their highly motivated effort means this one is decided by more than a half-dozen points. The Knights are allowing just 61.8 points per game on the road this season! You can tell by the low total on this game (has dipped into the 120s) that a tight, defensive struggle is quite likely which means even more value with the generous points being offered. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-21-19 | Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 131.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The Wolverines are known for defense. However, Michigan also has been known for having some sub-par performances on the road. That said, the Golden Gophers offensive production also has been much better when at home. Combining those factors we've got great value here with a low total posted on this game. The first meeting between these teams this season stayed well under the total but both teams had horrible shooting nights. Prior to that game however, the over was 3-0 in the 3 prior meetings and those games averaged 157 points. Now, consider this as well. The total in the first game between these teams was posted at 137. Now, because of the low-scoring result in that match-up, we're seeing totals as low as 131.5 for this game as of early this morning. This is more than 5 points less than the first match-up even though the fact that this game is at Minnesota means it should be higher scoring. Keep in mind, the over is 8-4 the last 12 times the Golden Gophers have hosted the Wolverines. Also, Michigan has allowed 71.3 points per game in their last 3 road games. As for Minnesota, they've had one ugly recent performance at home versus Wisconsin. However, other than that, the Golden Gophers have averaged 80.3 points per game in their last 6 home games! Minnesota is a much more confident team when at home and their shooting stats show that. Also, the over is 10-5 in Golden Gophers home games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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02-20-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington OVER 136 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Massachusetts Minutemen vs George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This is a type of late-season match-up that I look for when looking for games that should turn into a shootout. Here you have two teams both have disappointing seasons, with a history of high-scoring games when they meet, both shooting the ball well of late, and both struggling on the defensive end of late. Seriously, who is really to going to play intense defense here? There is just no high motivation for defense in this match-up and the 'kicker' for me was confirming that UMass guard Luwane Pipkins (hamstring) did upgraded from questionable to probable. I do expect him to be good to go here. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and all 5 games totaled at least 150 points. The Minutemen have shot over 40% from three point land in their last 3 games combined. However, Massachusetts has allowed 80 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games and they have allowed red hot hot shooting for their opponents in each of their last 3 games (despite the Davidson game being an ugly score, the shooting was there). As for George Washington, they've shot 40% or better from three point land in 3 straight games and all 3 went over the total. The Colonials, however, have allowed 82.3 points per game in their last 3 games as they surrendered hot shooting over this 3-game stretch. The over is 15-8 when UMass is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, February games for the Minutemen are on a 15-3 run to the over. The over is 9-3 this season in George Washington games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Colonials are 10-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Ideal set-up here for a shootout. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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02-20-19 | Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown | 73-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a loss at St John's Sunday where they blew a huge first half lead. The Red Storm, in my opinion, are well-coached and they are also very physical and tough. That was the difference in the 2nd half of that game (I had St John's as a premium pick in that one). This match-up is completely different and the results show it. Villanova has thoroughly dominated Georgetown time and time again in recent years. The Wildcats have a huge coaching edge with Jay Wright over the Hoyas Patrick Ewing. Also, Georgetown has the misfortune of facing Nova when they are angry off a loss. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS this season when off an ATS loss and only lost back to back games ATS once this season and that was three months ago! The Hoyas could be rusty here as they haven't played in a week while the Wildcats are going to hit the floor running and should be firing on all cylinders from the opening tip. Villanova can't wait to get back on the floor after what happened at St John's. The Wildcats are 30-16 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s and 53-30 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown is playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 6-14 ATS. Also, the Hoyas are on a horrific 13-31 ATS run in home games. Road rout expected here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa OVER 147 | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Big Ten Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #625 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The earliest total that first popped up on this game was a 151.5 and now, as of early game day morning, the total has dropped to as low as a 147 in some books. I am happy to grab the extra value here. The over is 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and the lone under did total 150 points. In other words, at the current number posted on this game, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. Look for the over to improve to 7-4 the last 11 times that Maryland has been on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a +3. The Terrapins have not had an over since mid-January - a stretch of NINE straight games. Their highest posted O/U in their last 5 games has been a 138. So the odds makers were fools to set this total at 151.5 as an opener, right? You guys know how I feel about this. When something looks "off" to the betting public it is usually for good reason! Keep in mind, Iowa is at home here and loaded with confidence as they continue to find ways to win games even when it takes late game "magic". That said, the Hawkeyes will continue to play at a fast pace here and will dictate the pace of this game with the Terps. Iowa's most recent game, at Rutgers, resulted in an under, but the over was 5-2 in the Hawkeyes 7 prior games. That's because Iowa averaged 81 points per game during that stretch and that is perfectly in line with their season average for points per game! The Hawkeyes are one of the highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten and are averaging 83.3 points per game at home this season. The over is 7-1 the last 8 times the Hawkeyes have been at home with their line ranging from a pick'em to a -3. Look for a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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02-19-19 | Dayton +3.5 v. Davidson | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 8* Dayton Flyers (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 6 ET - The Wildcats are 12-0 at home this season and opened up as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. The current line on Davidson, no surprise to me, is currently up to 3.5 early game day morning. I would not be surprised if it goes higher. As usual I am in the contrarian position here and simply reminding you that the odds makers are very sharp. They opened this one with a very low number on the Cats for the same reason I like the Flyers in this match-up. That is, Dayton has a great shot at the upset here. Note that it has been over a month since Davidson hosted an Atlantic Ten team as strong as this Flyers team. The Wildcats won their two toughest home games in conference action but both were in early January and both involved their opponents have uncharacteristically poor shooting nights from three point land. Davidson beat VCU and Duquesne but the Rams and Dukes combined to shoot about 20% from beyond the arc and the Wildcats won those two games by an average margin of just 5.5 points. The point is that now Davidson hosts a strong Dayton team that is really "feeling it" right now in terms of their shooting. The Flyers have shot "lights out", including from downtown, in each of their last two games. Also, Dayton has built up some road confidence thanks to going 3-1 in their last 4 road games and with the two most recent road wins coming by an average margin of 27 points per game! The Flyers are off a 1-point loss at VCU and that holds significance here as they are 4-0 (SU and ATS) the last 4 times they were off a SU loss. 8* DAYTON |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin OVER 135 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - The Illini are off a low-scoring upset win at Ohio State. Illinois is now 6-3 SU in their last 9 games. Also, prior to that rare low-scoring result with the Buckeyes, the Illini were on a 7-2 run to the over in their 9 previous games. One of the few ugly games during that stretch was when they lost at home to Wisconsin. In fact, other than the low-scoring win over the Buckeyes and the low-scoring loss to the Buckeyes, the Illini have scored 71 points or more in all their games since mid-January. In fact, in those 7 games Ilinois has averaged 81 points per game. Keep in mind, versus Wisconsin, the Illini should have scored just fine but they were completely off in that one. Illinois shot just 35.5% from the field, 54.5% from the free throw line, and 19% from three point land! Not only that but the Badgers Ethan Happ was limited by foul trouble and had one of his worst games of the season. Note that, even with all that, the game still totaled 132 points! That is why I feel we're getting great line value here with the low total posted on this one. Illinois is playing with a lot more confidence now than they were a month ago when these teams met in Champaign. I expect the Illini to get their fair share of points as a result but, keep in mind, this is still a team that is allowing 77 points per game on the road this season. The strength of Illinois certainly is not defense. Also, the Badgers have long been known for dominating the Illini and have scored an average of 75 points in the last 3 meetings. Wisconsin is 4-1 to the over when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Badgers are 4-1 to the over as a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Illinois is 4-1 to the over as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +6.5 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 8* Virginia Tech Hockies (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - This line opened up as low as Virginia -3.5 but, as of early Monday morning, the line is now up to as high as -6.5 on the Cavaliers. That is because the Hokies have no chance in this match-up. I am being sarcastic of course. I love fading line moves like this and am very happy to be getting 3 more points than what the odds makers said I should be getting with Virginia Tech. You get my point? Grab the points here and take advantage of the extra points being offered! Why? First off the Hokies get this rematch at home. Yes Virginia Tech got blasted at Virginia in mid-January but the Hokies have been playing better defense of late. Also, they've gone to a "matchup zone" type of defense that has helped limit opponents scoring. Virginia Tech is sure to employ plenty of that again in this match-up and, keep in mind, the Cavaliers just faced a type of zone defense against Notre Dame Saturday and they barely won the game. Not only did the Cavs beat the Fighting Irish by only 6 points, that game was a home game for Virginia. They face a much tougher task here and I feel strongly that the Cavaliers will be locked into a fierce battle just to avoid the upset tonight let alone win this game by more than a half dozen points! You knew Virginia's hot ATS run couldn't last all season and, sure enough, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. Also, the Hokies are 4-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Now we're even seeing 6.5 starting to pop up on this one. I'll take it! 8* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-17-19 | Villanova v. St. John's +4 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Great line value here as a line that opened up as low as a -1.5 on Villanova is all the way up to as a high as a -4 on the Wildcats as of early Sunday morning. This is great home dog line value being offered to the Red Storm. While it is true that St John's lost the first meeting this season (at Villanova), the Red Storm actually had a double digit lead in the 2nd half of that game! Also, though the Wildcats are off an 18-point win versus Providence that game was much closer than that for much of the contest. In their prior game, Nova had to rally to still lose by a point at Marquette. The point is that the Cats continue to be a covering machine but they've truly been quite fortunate in recent contests and here is where that luck runs out. I actually expect an outright upset here for the Red Storm but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered as added insurance. Note that St John's Shamorie Ponds has had great success against the Wildcats in his career and also is known for huge performances in big games. Additionally, he is coming off a rare poor game and the fact that the Red Storm still won that game (versus Butler) says a lot. The fact is that St John's is very talented (much more than just Ponds) and they also play physical basketball and the Wildcats have been having trouble on the boards for long stretches in recent games. This one will be a fierce battle and I see the Red Storm taking advantage of this marquee opportunity on their home floor against a ranked rival. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-17-19 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 3 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays as they lost at Seton Hall last Saturday. That defeat is a part of a 3-game losing streak that has seen Creighton struggle with a shooting slump. However, all 3 games were on the road. Keep in mind, the Bluejays are a much better shooting team when at home. In fact, Creighton won their most recent home game 76-54 versus Xavier behind a huge shooting performance at home. The Bluejays have been playing well defensively. Look for that to continue here and then the difference in the game will be Creighton again finding their shooting stroke at home. The Bluejays are off back to back ATS losses but previously had covered 4 of their last 5 games. The Pirates enter this game on a 5-game losing streak in road games. The average margin of defeat for Seton Hall in road games this year is 11 points. A double digit loss is what I expect in this one as well based on the situational aspects of this match-up. 8* CREIGHTON |
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02-17-19 | Wichita State v. Cincinnati OVER 132 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Wichita State Shockers @ 1 ET - The Bearcats are in a sandwich game situation as they are off a huge game at Houston and have a big game versus Central Florida on deck. This type of situation is unlikely to bring forth a great effort on the defensive end from Cincinnati. However, I do expect plenty of points here from the Bearcats at they are off a loss (SU and ATS) to the Cougars and they are 6-2 to the over the last 8 times they were off an ATS loss. Cincinnati is averaging 77.7 points per game when off an ATS loss and they just had their lowest scoring game (58 points) of the season and will be ready to respond here. The only time the Bearcats were held under 60 points this season, they responded to the 59-point effort by scoring 93 points! The Shockers enter this game off back to back unders but, prior to that, were on a 6-3 run to the over. Wichita State enters this contest with some added confidence as they've won 4 straight games (SU and ATS). The Shockers have averaged 76.5 points per game during this 4-game winning streak. You can see why I am expecting plenty of points in this one. Their first meeting this season totaled only 121 points and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. These two teams are in entirely different situations heading into this match-up in comparison with the first meeting. The result will be a much higher scoring game in the rematch. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico OVER 147.5 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The first meeting this season at Fresno State saw the Lobos score 70 points despite shooting only 31.9% from the field. Both teams were horrible from beyond the arc in that game too as they combined for a ridiculously bad 12 of 57 performance from three point land. The point is that, even with all that poor shooting, the game totaled 152 points. Why? Because these teams are known for playing at a great pace in their meetings and, keep in mind, the two prior meetings saw those games average 175 points! This is also the type of situation I love to look for with overs. You have the lesser team, New Mexico, at home and seeking revenge. The Lobos are averaging 80 points per game at home this season. They'll look to win this game with a red hot shooting night and they are known to "run and gun" at home. Of course Fresno State is happy to play the same pace here as they are off a low-scoring win versus Boise State but the Bulldogs previously scored an average of 80 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Lobos confidence at home is very high right now as they have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their 6 home games since the 1st of the year. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total in the 140s this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Fresno State has played at New Mexico. The Lobos give the Bulldogs all they can handle here and the result is a shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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02-16-19 | La Salle +7.5 v. St. Louis | 49-62 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #687 Saturday 8* La Salle Explorers (+) @ St Louis Billikens @ 5 ET - Five weeks ago La Salle hosted St Louis and the line was the Billikens -4.5 on the road. Now they are at home hosting the Explorers so one would naturally expect St Louis to be favored by double digits here. They are not and, trust me, it is no mistake. This is a classic case of hot versus cold and I also like the fact that La Salle is healthier now than they were in that mid-January match-up. Additionally, they might get freshman Jack Clark back for this game and he has been a key contributor in limited action this season. The Explorers enter this game having won 5 of their last 6 games. The Billikens are in a letdown spot as they are off a win that snapped a 1-5 stretch (both SU and ATS) and they have a full week off after this game before another big game with Dayton. Will St Louis make the mistake of overlooking La Salle and trying to "coast" in their upcoming break? I would not be surprised to see this one play out exactly like that as the Billkens already won at La Salle this season plus have dominated recent meetings with the Explorers in St Louis. The situational aspects of this one mean that we have great value with the big road dog in this one. The Explorers are 6-1 ATS in road games this season and 4-1 ATS this season when off a win over a conference foe. The Billikens are 3-6 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in their prior game. St Louis is also an ugly 6-12 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-16-19 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | 55-56 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Louisville Cardinals vs Clemson Tigers @ Noon ET - A total that was as high as a 134 has now dropped to as low as a 131.5 as of early Saturday morning and I love the value with the over here. The markets are being influenced by some great efforts on defense in recent Clemson games. However, look for Louisville to dictate the pace of this game at home. The Cardinals are fired up and looking to bounce back off back to back losses including a home loss to Duke. Louisville is averaging 78 points per game this season while the Tigers are averaging 70 points per game on the season. Also, this game is projected to be a rather tight game (current line is Cardinals -4.5) and when you have a tight game late you see more free throws. Both these teams are solid at the free throw line. These teams met at Clemson last season and that game wen over the total and their most recent meeting here at Louisville also resulted in an over. The over is 19-11 when the Tigers are a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 5-2 when Louisville is a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the Cardinals are a long-term 33-18 to the over in conference games and 12-6 to the over in February games. These trends continue here. 8* OVER the total in Louisville |
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02-15-19 | St. Joe's +11 v. Davidson | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Friday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Wildcats and they are at the top of the Atlantic Ten standings while the Hawks are down near the bottom. However, this game is likely to prove troublesome for Davidson. They may get their revenge but I expect their win to be by single digits. The Wildcats have a huge game on deck with Dayton. The Flyers are just a game behind Davidson. Though the Wildcats certainly want revenge for their one point loss at St Joseph's last month, the fact is that is hard for Davidson not to already have Dayton on their mind. The Hawks just lost some bench depth with the Lodge injury and he joins an injury list that includes Kimble and Oliva. However, Lodge is a back-up and neither Kimble or Oliva were available for the first game against the Wildcats either. The Hawks are off a horrific shooting effort versus St Bonaventure Tuesday as they were held below 30% from the field. That has happened only twice before this season. Each time, St Joseph's covered their next game. Also, the Hawks allowed 51% from the field. Each of the last 4 times that St Joseph's has allowed 49% or better from the field, they've covered their next game all 4 times! The point is that this is a bounce back spot for the Hawks off a very ugly game and they don't play again for a full week after this one. In other words, St Joseph's is absolutely going to go all out here in a huge effort with a chance to again knock off the team that is at the top of the A-10 standings! The Wildcats are 9-2 SU in Atlantic Ten action but only 2 of those 9 wins have come by more than 11 points. Grab the generous points being offered to the Hawks in this one! 8* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and, of course, they are happy to have the rematch at home. However, coming into this season Toledo was projected by most to be only about the 3rd best team in the MAC West. As for the MAC East, Buffalo was expected to be the top team there and they have met those expectations. The point is that the Bulls are doing what was expected of them while the Rockets have overachieved a bit. Overall on the season Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule too. These key factors, in my opinion, are combining to give us some solid line value here with the Bulls as a very short road favorite in this one. Sure the Rockets want revenge badly here but, keep in mind, this game is ultra-important to Buffalo too! It is not just about the Bulls being a Top 25 team and wanting to remain in the rankings, it is also the fact that Buffalo is currently battling with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East Division of the MAC. The Rockets have been helped by the fact that they play in the West which is the weaker division of the MAC this season. Also, note that the Bulls are a long-term 23-8 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from pick'em to a -3. As for Toledo, they could be a little rusty here with some extra time off leading into this game and the Rockets have covered just 3 of their last 9 games when they enter a match-up with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and they make it 4 in a row here. 10* BUFFALO |
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02-14-19 | Drexel v. James Madison OVER 147 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #611 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - When Drexel travels away from Philly they have shown a strong tendency for leaving their defense at home! The Dragons have allowed insane numbers on the road: 82.8 ppg, 51.6% from the field, and 42.9% from 3-point land! Another weakness of Drexel is they have a weak bench so their starters tend to get over-used. However, they are all very capable scorers (all 5 averaging in double digits on the season) and the Dragons starting five is well-rested here. Drexel hasn't played since Saturday and they shot 53.7% from the field against the College of Charleston but the Dragons also allowed 52.5% from the field in a 2-point loss that totaled 170 points. We have great value with the rather low total posted on this one as Drexel has shown a tendency all season long to get involved in very high-scoring games away from home. James Madison is likely to oblige the "run and gun" style in this one as the Dukes, even though they allowed only 66 points at Towson, allowed 51.1% shooting! James Madison has allowed 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 games. The Dukes, prior to holding Towson to 66, allowed an average of 79.5 in their 6 prior games. The over was 5-2 in James Madison's 7 games prior to the Towson game staying under the total. The Dukes are averaging 76.6 ppg at home this season and have revenge from losing at Drexel this season and from getting knocked out of the conference tourney by the Dragons a year ago. That means they won't take their foot off the gas here but Drexel can match them bucket for bucket. In other words, plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in James Madison |
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02-14-19 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 149.5 | 82-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #689 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 5 ET - It has been a very rough season for the Broncos but they have some momentum now as they enter this game off a home win versus Northern Illinois. That game versus the Huskies went over the total and Western Michigan is now 6-0 to the over in their 6 home games. That is an impressive streak dating all the way back to late December. As for the Golden Flashes, they're certainly having a much better season than the Broncos but Kent State is off an ugly loss. After scoring just 53 points in an ugly loss at Akron, the Golden Flashes are going to now take advantage of a Western Michigan team that has allowed an average of 83.7 points per game in its last 10 games! Kent State is off back to back unders but prior to this the over was on a 9-4 run in Golden Flashes games. Also, this is just the 4th time this season that Kent State has had back to back unders and the over is a perfect 3-0 in this situation this season. Look for another one here as the Flashes bounce back from an ugly loss but the Broncos, at home and off a confidence-boosting win, match them bucket for bucket! 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan |
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02-13-19 | Providence v. Villanova -11 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - I got burned going against the Friars on Saturday with the Red Storm. No one expected that St John's would be without Mustapha Heron in that game but it made me feel like a fool when he was listed as the key player in my write-up and then 30 minutes before the game it was announced he wouldn't play. How important was he? Heron came back last night and scored 28 points in the OT win for the Red Storm over Butler. The point is that Providence, though they still deserve credit of course for the Saturday win, were very fortunate that Heron didn't play as it resulted in St John's being completely out of rhythm in that game. Now the Friars, after being in the right place at the right time, are in a complete 180 situation and are in the wrong place at the wrong time! Villanova is at home and coming off a one point loss at Marquette on Saturday. SU losses have been rare for the Wildcats this season and they are known for responding after a defeat. Nova is 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were off a SU loss. This spread is double digits but it is justified. The Cats led the Friars by 18 points at halftime at Providence early last month. The Friars, at home, were able to claw back into the game in the 2nd half. However, on the road, that will not happen and this is particularly true when you consider the angry mindset of the Wildcats team they are facing here. Providence is 8-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Villanova is 14-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats turn this into a home blowout. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-12-19 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -1 | Top | 76-51 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 6:30 ET - This line was as high as a -3 on St Joseph's early on when lines first came out yesterday afternoon. It has since dropped to very nearly a pick'em and this is offering superb line value on the home team. This is a big-time revenge game and I look for the Hawks to get home revenge in this one just like they did when they blasted the Billikens on Friday. Earlier this season St Joseph's had lost at St Louis and shot just 29.5% from the field in the embarrassing loss. The Hawks got payback in Philly Friday. Similar situation here. St Joseph's lost badly at St Bonaventure and shot 29.1% in the defeat and now it is payback time in Philly as they host the Bonnies. Though the Hawks are short-handed, including being without Lamarr Kimble, that problem is mitigated by the fact that St Joseph's enters this game with 3 days off and they have 2 days off after this. In other words, it is no problem to fully utilize all hands on deck fully in this one and that worked just fine when they blasted St Louis by 30 on Friday. The Hawks are catching the Bonnies at the right time as St Bonaventure has been held to below 30% from the field (including horrific 3-point shooting performances) in each of their last two games. Off back to back losses, St Bonaventure has scored an average of just 53 points per game in their last two games. The Bonnies are just 4-9 SU on the road this season while the Hawks are a solid 9-3 SU at home this season. St Bonaventure is just 2-4 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they were held to just 60 points or less. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU this season in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 points. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-11-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 142 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #855 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - There are 3 teams that are clearly the top teams in the ACC. That group includes these two matched up here as well as Duke. There is no doubt that the Tar Heels are very similar in style to the Blue Devils. This is the only regular season meeting between North Carolina and Virginia. That said, lets look at how the Cavaliers fared against Duke this season. They just had their 2nd match-up of the season on Saturday. The Blue Devils scorched the Cavs from three point land. In the prior meeting this season, at Duke, the Cavaliers held Duke in check but gave up too much inside. That is why the Blue Devils averaged 76.5 points per game this season in their two games against the vaunted defense of Virginia. Note that UNC is averaging 88.3 points per game on the season. You can see where I am going with this. The fact is the Tar Heels are going to "get theirs" in this game in terms of scoring plenty of points. They do not want to let UVA control the tempo here and, since this game is at North Carolina, I do expect the Tar Heels to have quite a say so in the tempo of this game. The Heels will look to run and gun and create quick transition scoring opportunities. The Cavaliers defensive mindset is still shaken from getting blitzed by Duke and now they have to face a team that is averaging even more points per game than Duke this season. This is a tough match-up for the Cavs but I do expect them to score plenty. Virginia has shot 47% from the field on the road and averaged 70 points per game away from home this season. The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 in Tar Heels home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. North Carolina wants revenge for last season's ACC Tourney loss to the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels know they will NOT get revenge by playing a plodding slow style here. In other words, this game has "up tempo" written all over it! 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame OVER 128 | Top | 59-69 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 6 ET - There is a long history of match-ups between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech staying under the total. That continued in this season's earlier match-up at Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are known for getting involved in low-scoring grinder type games. Looking at the final score of 63-61 in the Jackets win over the Fighting Irish 3 weeks ago it looks like Georgia Tech was very successful in slowing down Notre Dame. However, when one digs a little deeper one finds that the Irish actually attempted 65 shots in the game including 30 three pointers! So it wasn't really the tempo of the game that kept it under the total, it was the fact that the Irish shot very poorly in that game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Fighting Irish are not offensive juggernauts but they do average a solid 73 points per game when at home this season. They also are allowing 68 points per game at home. It will be Notre Dame, on their home floor, dictating the pace in this game and I expect us to get well above the 128 that is currently posted on this one. You can see that Fighting Irish games tend to total around 140 points and they're very likely to shoot much better in this rematch. Also, the over is a long-term 29-16 (including 6-2 in recent seasons) when the Irish are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 6-3 when Georgia Tech enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #830 Sunday 8* Houston Cougars (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 4 ET - Solid line value here with Houston at home. The Bearcats have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams even though there has been a statistical anomaly that would suggest otherwise. The Cougars have had more field goal attempts in all 3 of those games versus Cincinnati but have fallen short due to buckets not falling. The 3 meetings last season saw Houston have 25 more field goal attempts than the Bearcats yet they won only one of the games. Also, the Cougars lost the most important one (by a single point) when Cincy knocked them out of the conference tourney. It is payback time here. Houston is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 120s. Also, the Bearcats are on a 2-6 ATS run as an underdog. The Cougars are 13-2 SU (and 10-5 ATS) in February games and they get their revenge here. 8* HOUSTON |
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02-09-19 | Duke v. Virginia -114 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - The Cavaliers have just one loss this season and it came at Duke. In that game the Cavs made just 3 of 17 three pointers which certainly was a key factor. Now, of course, one could argue that the Blue Devils only made 2 of 14 three pointers and that make it a mute point. However, the reason I would dispute that is that Duke was t home for that game! They couldn't make threes against the nation's #1 ranked defense and it is unlikely that will improve on the road for sure! As for the Cavaliers though the story is certainly different as they now get their shot at the Blue Devils in Virginia. The Cavs are averaging 9 three pointers per game and hitting 42.1% from beyond the arc when on their home floor this season. Overall on the season the Cavs are hitting 39.4% from three point land while the Blue Devils have struggled to a 30.8% this season from downtown. Now I know that Duke has, surprisingly, shot better from outside on the road compared to at home this season but they're now going to a raucous arena in Virginia and facing the nation's #1 defense. The Cavaliers want this game badly and, in my opinion, they are not going to be denied. They came into this season projected by many to finish above Duke in the ACC and they can earn that billing by knocking off the Blue Devils in this huge rematch. Duke is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Blue Devils are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games against teams that are allowing an average of 64 points or less on the season. The Cavaliers are 22-4 SU (and 20-6 ATS) in games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for a defensive battle which will suit the Cavs very well and they get payback. The line on this game has dropped to as low as a -1 which has opened up good value on the money line for those of you that have access to it - as low as the -115 range. 10* VIRGINIA |
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02-09-19 | Villanova +2 v. Marquette | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #651 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2:30 ET - This line opened up right around a pick'em and has risen now to as high as a -2 on Marquette. This is not a surprise to be as the Golden Eagles are at home and are 14-1 SU in home games this season. Also, that lone loss just happened as Marquette lost versus St John's on Tuesday. Though they rallied back in the 1-point loss lets not forget they were down 15 points to the Red Storm in the 2nd half of their game. Now perhaps Marquette was looking ahead to this showdown with Villanova but the Wildcats also might have been looking ahead when they had to go to OT to beat Creighton on Wednesday. There is an old handicapping adage that says don't play teams off of an overtime win. However, I am here to say that there is no doubt that the Wildcats enter this game feeling much more confident heading into Marquette off an 11 point win in comparison with how the Golden Eagles feel seeing their home winning streak end. Also, that St John's team that Marquette just lost to in Milwaukee is the same Red Storm team that Villanova hosted 5 weeks ago and beat by 5. The key story line there was the Wildcats were down by 13 early in the game and also trailed by 5 with under 3 and 1/2 minutes to go. Villanova outscored St John's by 10 over the final 3 and 1/2 minutes. Not to take anything away from Golden Eagles coach Steve Wojciechowski but Wildcats coach Jay Wright is 15 years his senior. The point is Wildcats still the stronger team at closing out games and Villanova is not yet ready to relinquish their seemingly annual spot as the top team in the Big East. The Wildcats lost at Marquette two years ago but that was because they shot 17.6% from three point land while the Golden Eagles shot 47.4% from three point land. Villanova still only lost that game by two points and I don't expect a repeat of that type of shooting performance here. In fact, Marquette has not had "the touch" from three point land in home games this season that they've shown in past seasons. Against St John's, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, UTEP, Kansas State the Eagles had sub-par shooting efforts from beyond the arc and the Wildcats know they can't let Marquette beat them with wide open threes. Nova has won 12 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just 2 points on a night when the Wildcats were shooting so bad they couldn't hit the ocean standing 20 feet from the water! That won't happen again here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-09-19 | Providence v. St. John's -6 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Saturday 8* St John's Red Storm vs Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and is now down to a 6 as expected. That is why I have waited and let the markets do their thing. Many are looking at Providence here since they've won 3 straight games over St John's but "that was then and this is now". The key for the Red Storm coming into this season was the eligibility of Mustapha Heron. With Heron playing all season long St John's has been much better than many expected. He combines with Shamorie Ponds to give the Red Storm one of the best backcourts in the Big East. The weakness of St John's is size and depth in the frontcourt and that can be a problem against some teams in the Big East. However, Providence is also a guard-heavy team and their key big man is only a sophomore and I don't expect him to "go off" in this game as St John's 6'7 230lb Marvin Clark has enough size to make sure of that and he is a senior. One of the problems for the Friars is that, even though AJ Reeves is now back, he is still having a horrible time trying to get back into rhythm and has truly been unproductive. The Friars shooting percentage as a team has been atrocious in their last 4 games and it comes as no surprise that they enter this game having lost 3 straight SU and 3 of their last 4 ATS. The Red Storm are 10-2 SU at home this season and are going to make the most of what is just the 2nd home game they've had since mid-January! Providence is 3-7 ATS in conference action this season while the host here is 7-3 ATS in Big East games. Those trends continue here. 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-08-19 | St. Louis v. St. Joe's OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joseph's Hawks vs St Louis Billikens @ 7 ET - These teams have a history of playing to the under in recent meetings. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one snaps that trend. When these teams met three weeks ago at St Louis, the Hawks shot only 29.5% from the field and allowed the Billikens to shoot only 38.6% from the field. Even with those very ugly numbers the game totaled 125 points. This total, as of early game day morning, is currently as low as 131.5 points and I feel we're getting great value here when you consider the first result between these teams. The reason is because St Joseph's will look to increase the pace on their home floor and also it is highly unlikely that we'll see such poor shooting in the rematch. How unlikely? The Hawks have allowed at least 43% from the field in each of their five games since the loss at St Louis and 4 of the 5 games saw St Joseph's opponents shoot 46% or better from the field. The Hawks allowed 73.6 points per game in those 5 games. Also, St Joseph's other 7 games since mid-January (other than the ugly performance against the Billikens) have seen them held under 40% from the field just 1 other time. In the other 6 games the Hawks averaged 70.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting this game to get to the 140 to 145 range tonight. The Billikens have allowed their last 3 opponents to average 48% from the field and St Louis has shot 42% or better in 3 straight games. The Hawks are hungry for revenge here and they know they can't afford to let the Billikens turn this game into a "grinder" so I expect a lot of pressure and that can turn into turnovers and quick transition points as well as breakdowns in defense when St Louis beats the pressure. In other words, there is going to be some quick scoring runs throughout this game in my opinion. The over is a perfect 3-0 when St Louis is a road favorite of 3 points or less. The over is 12-5 in St Joseph's February games. Also, the Hawks are 3-0 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 10* OVER the total in St Joseph's |
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02-07-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 131 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Buckeyes as they lost to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Conference Tournament in March. That said, Ohio State is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one and they are known for scoring very well on their home floor. The Buckeyes have averaged 77.3 points per game in their home games this season. However, something about Ohio State always seems to bring out the best in Penn State and the Nittany Lions have averaged 75 points per game in their last 4 games against the Buckeyes. I would not be surprised to see PSU trading buckets with OSU for much of this game and we should see some great scoring runs throughout this contest. The first total that popped up on this game offshore was 132.5 and it dropped to a 131 as of early this morning and I feel we have great value here with the over. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 135 points. The over is 8-3 in Penn State's last 11 visits to Ohio State. The over is also 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 home games entering this contest. Though the Nittany Lions have mostly trended under this season, the over is 3-1 the last 4 times Penn State has been a road underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is also 3-1 this season in Buckeyes home games versus teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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02-06-19 | VCU -6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This line opened up at nearly double digits but, as of early game day morning, it has dropped to as low as a 6.5 in some big books. This is a great value add for us as we can get a Rams team that I do expect to win by double digits and yet we're laying only about a half-dozen points. Yes, Virginia Commonwealth is on the road here but that is actually part of the key to this play. What that does is keep the line manageable. Had the Rams been at home they would have opened up at around 15 points for sure. The other key about being on the road is that is often how revenge can best be served! VCU is absolutely out for revenge on this very court where they got thoroughly embarrassed last season by a final score of 80 to 56. For this season's rematch, Virginia Commonwealth enters with a solid 15-6 season while George Washington in currently struggling through an ugly 7-14 campaign. The Colonials are off a home win but that came against a bad Fordham team that is just 1-6 on the road this season. Prior to that win, George Washington had lost 5 of their 6 prior games and the average margin of defeat was 9.6 points in those 5 losses. The Rams are surging on an 8-2 SU run and the only two losses were at Rhode Island and Davidson. Those teams are a combined 17-2 SU at home this season! By comparison, the Colonials are 5-7 SU at home this season. By the way, the VCU wins in their 8-2 stretch their last 10 games have come by an average margin of 13 points per victory! The Rams are 20-9 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. George Washington is 7-14 ATS when off a win in conference action! 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-06-19 | Connecticut v. Temple -3.5 | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6 ET - Even though the Huskies Alterique Gilbert did shoot yesterday he did not participate in practice and the expectation is that he he will not play Wednesday at Temple and will instead return to action at Memphis Sunday. Gilbert is one of Connecticut's top players so his loss is significant. This one sets up very well for the Owls. The Huskies are 1-7 straight-up away from home this season and that includes 7 straight losses with 6 of the 7 coming by 6 or more points! I certainly expect the Owls to take this one by at least a half-dozen points. Part of the key to the value here is that Connecticut has covered 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 so that is giving them some market respect while bettors are a little down on the Owls right now. That's because Temple is on a 2-3 SU and ATS run. What is important to note about that however is that the Owls, prior to a road win at Tulane in their most recent game, had tough match-ups with Houston and Cincinnati. Of course the Cougars and Bearcats are two of the top teams in the conference and Temple covered at Houston and just missed the cover at home against Cincinnati. The Owls looked like the right side nearly the entire game and should have won the game outright. This is Temple's first home game since they let that game against Cincy get away from them. The Owls are 'chomping at the bit' to make up for that defeat here and will take advantage of a short-handed Huskies team. I look for UConn to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they have been a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The Owls are 7-1 ATS when, past the midway point of a season, they face a team that is averaging 77 points or more on the season. 8* TEMPLE |
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02-05-19 | St. Joe's v. La Salle -1 | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* La Salle Explorers (-) vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This is a big rivalry game in Philly and the home team has won both games each of the last two seasons. Yes, the Explorers have a poor record this season but they've won 3 straight games and I really like what I have seen from La Salle's playing rotation of late. They have meshed well and certainly the same can not be said for the Hawks. St Joseph's has won just 2 of their 5 games since losing star Lamarr Kimble to a hand injury. Keep in mind those two victories came at home and came against two of the worst teams in the Atlantic Ten. While it is true the Explorers also have a poor record, the fact is they are playing very well of late plus this game is AT La Salle. These are key factors as is the recent return to form of Saul Phiri. He has made 13 of 25 three pointers in his last 4 games and averaged 13.3 points per game during this stretch. Combining with Isiah Deas and Pookie Powell, the veteran guard combinations of the Explorers lead them to a home win here. Coming into this season St Joseph's was counting on Kimble as well as relying on contributions from Pierfrancesco Oliva (also out) and Anthony Longpre (questionable with a concussion). The healthier and more confident team gets the win here. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-05-19 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -15.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big points and for me to do so requires exactly the ideal situation. This particular case is the text book example of a perfect time to lay big points with a favorite that is set up perfectly to absolutely crush their opponent by 20+ points. The very first number that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was 18 and it is down to a 15.5 as of early this morning. Both teams are off wins but while Kentucky had a "growth game" for its, as usual, young roster by rallying for a win; the Gamecocks were off a wire to wire win but that was thanks to hitting an insanely high percentage of their three pointers. That won't happen again here. The Wildcats have been patiently waiting for this opportunity. Last season the Cats led the Gamecocks by 14 in the 2nd half and then they watched Chris Silva take over for South Carolina and lead them to the huge comeback win. It is payback time here and that is a key when laying big points. The point is that the Wildcats, even with a big lead, will not take their foot off the gas in this one and it is set up to be a home blowout. Kentucky's frontcourt will be a key in stopping Silva. Note that PJ Washington is now a sophomore and another big forward, senior Reid Travis was NOT with the Wildcats last season (he played his first four with Stanford). Travis has been a key player for Kentucky this season and will help Washington in slowing down Silva. As for the outside game of the Gamecocks, their three-point shooting will cool off quickly at Kentucky as the Wildcats have turned up the heat on defense (including perimeter defense) and that has played a key role in their 8 games winning streak. The Cats have covered 6 in a row too! Also, in the last 7 games of this 8-game winning streak they only had 1 poor game defensively. In the other 6 they allowed an average of only 53 points per game! Keep in mind, Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. So if the Wildcats hold South Carolina to 53 and they hit their usual scoring average they win this 80-53. I honestly would not be surprised to see that and I do see this win coming by 20 points or more! 10* KENTUCKY |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The line was as high as a -6 and has dropped to 3.5 as of early Monday morning. This line move is opening up great value on the home favorite here. I understand the move as the Hokies are off a dominating win over NC State Saturday while the Cardinals are off an ugly loss versus North Carolina the same day and so many bettors are playing the zig-zag theory here. Additionally, Virginia Tech will be without guard Justin Robinson again as he his out indefinitely with a foot injury. However, Robinson didn't play Saturday either and that was a 47-24 win at NC State! As for Louisville, they were at home on Saturday versus North Carolina but still had an ugly game and got dominated on the glass. Adding to the value with the Hokies here is the fact that they were swept by the Cardinals in last season's meetings and Louisville has won 5 straight over Virginia Tech! Coach Buzz Williams and his players are out for revenge (big-time!) on Monday night and being on their home floor certainly will help. The Hokies are 11-0 SU at Cassel Coliseum this season and they are beginning a three-game homestand with this revenge opportunity tonight. The Cardinals are just 4-4 SU this season in their games played away from Louisville. Only one of the Hokies 18 wins this season has come by less than 6 points and in fact, 15 of the 18 victories have come by a double digit margin. Look for another home blowout here. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-03-19 | Stanford v. California OVER 145 | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #833 Saturday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal @ 4 ET - Those who appreciate strong defensive play in college hoops might want to look elsewhere on Saturday. The Cardinal are allowing 74 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Bears are allowing 50% from the field, 38.5% from three point land, and 79 points per game on the season! Each of the last 3 regular season meetings between these teams has resulted in an over and this total on Sunday is low enough to fully expect another one. The over is 4-2 in Stanford's last 6 road games. The over is 4-2 in California's last 6 home games. The average points scored in the last 6 road games for the Cardinal is 151. For Cal, 5 of their last 6 home games have totaled at least 146 points. That is why the small drop on this total this morning carries even a little more significance for our purposes here. In terms of long-term trending, the over is 11-3 in Stanford's February games the last two years. The over is 4-1 when the Golden Bears are playing with 7 or more days of rest between games and also 4-1 when the Bears are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Look all these trends to continue here on Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in California |
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02-02-19 | Alabama v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Saturday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - The Tigers have had to wait a long time for this rematch and I fully expect a home blowout here. Last March, in the SEC Tournament, Auburn led Alabama by double digits at the half. By virtue of a great shooting performance for the Crimson Tide and a horrible shooting performance for the Tigers, Alabama had a huge 2nd half and won the game by 18 points! It was a beatdown (outscored by 28 in the 2nd half) that Auburn most certainly has not forgotten and it is payback time here. The Tigers are the better team this season, they are at home, and they are playing with big-time revenge. That is why I am willing to lay a big number here as I feel strongly that Auburn will get a double digit lead here and then, because of what happened in March, the Tigers absolutely will keep their foot on the gas! The Crimson Tide are off a big win but that was at home against Mississippi State. Prior to knocking off the Bulldogs, Alabama had lost 4 of 6. The Tigers are a huge 10-1 this season and the lone loss was to Kentucky! The 10 home wins for Auburn have been games decided by a victory margin of 30.2 points! You read that right...THIRTY point margin of victory on average! Another home blowout expected here as the Tigers get revenge in a big way! 10* AUBURN |
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02-02-19 | Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 133 | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #677 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 4 ET - This total is being kept on the low side because the Red Raiders have played in a lot of low-scoring "grinder" games this season. However, Kansas is going to dictate the pace in this game on their home floor and I expect that to lead to a solid over. The last 4 meetings between the Jayhawks and Texas Tech have all gone over the total. Also, the over is a perfect 7-0 in Kansas games with a posted total in the 130s. The Red Raiders have trended under this season but the over is 6-1 in Texas Tech's Saturday games. The over is 8-3 in Jayhawks home games this season. The Red Raiders enter this game having shot 53% from the field in their last two games but the Texas Tech defense has surrendered 44% from the field over the last 5 games. This reflects the fact that the Red Raiders defense has not been nearly as stifling as it was earlier this season. With Kansas looking to "explode" on offense after being stifled in back to back tough road games (held to 63 at Texas and at Kentucky) this one is set to fly over the total. The Jayhawks are averaging 81 points per game at home this season and get back on track here but look for the hot-shooting Red Raiders to match them bucket for bucket in this one. 8* OVER the total in Kansas |
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02-02-19 | Youngstown State +5.5 v. Detroit | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Saturday 8* Youngstown State Penguins (+) @ Detroit Mercy Titans @ 1 ET - The scrappy Penguins continue to be road warriors. Yes this is a match-up of two of the weaker teams in the Horizon League but these are the types of situations that can create great value with a hungry underdog and that is the case here. Youngstown State is off of an upset win at Oakland Thursday. The Penguins are now 3-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 5 or more points and all 3 of those wins were outright upsets! Youngstown State won at IUPUI and Wisconsin-Milwaukee in addition to the Thursday win. The Penguins will be extra hungry here as, even though Detroit Mercy is off back to back poor seasons, the Titans continue to have Youngstown State's number. Detroit beat the Penguins at Youngstown State in late December and now it is payback time. With each road win, the confidence of the Penguins continues to grow. Also, Youngstown State is 5-1 ATS when on short rest (1 day or less) this season while Detroit Mercy is 8-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record after the mid-way point in a season. Look for the typical Titans late season fade to be in full effect here. Keep in mind, though Detroit Mercy is off a win they previously were 2-4 SU and ATS in their six prior games and their defense has been atrocious. The Titans allowed an average of 83.3 points per game in this 6-game stretch. Detroit fits the bill as a false favorite here and though I do expect yet another road upset for the scrappy Penguins, I will grab the points as added insurance should they fall a bucket or two short. 8* YOUNGSTOWN STATE |
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02-01-19 | Northern Kentucky v. IUPU-Indianapolis +4 | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #864 Friday 8* IUPUI Jaguars (+) vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - The very first line that opened up on this one had the Norse at only -2 and that line got driven up to as high as a -4 as expected. As per usual, I am on the other side of the move. Of course it looked for bettors to take 18-4 Northern Kentucky at such a low number against a 13-9 IUPUI team but the key here is home court. The Norse are just 3-6 ATS in road games this season. They're coming off a great defensive effort at home versus UW-Milwaukee but they are 1-5 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Northern Kentucky is just 2-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Jaguars are a long-term 25-10 SU in home games and that includes 8-2 this season. Also, IUPUI has revenge on their minds as they've lost all 3 games against the Norse in Horizon League action. Though the Jags lost at Northern Kentucky in late December, IUPUI actually had 13 more field goal attempts than the Norse but it was simply an extraordinary shooting night for Northern Kentucky. That is highly unlikely to be repeated on the road and it will be the Jaguars that are likely to have the better shooting night (thanks to their home floor) in the rematch. Keep in mind, compared to last season's team, the Jags now have a Vandy transfer (Camron Justice) leading the way and I can see him taking over in a big game like this. Look for the Jaguars to improve to a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the last 3 times they've been a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. I am grabbing the points! 8* IUPUI |
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02-01-19 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141.5 | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The fact this game is at Iowa makes a big difference. This is a contrarian play because Michigan is allowing just 56 points per game this season. If that average were to hold true and they win the game by 4 points as odds makers are calling for, you've got a 60-56 game that falls well short of this total. So the odds makers must have made a big mistake, right? Of course not! The fact is that Iowa is fully capable of putting up big points (they average 82 per game this season) and this is particularly true when they are at home where the shooters are even more comfortable. The over is actually 7-1 the last 8 times these teams have met at Iowa. The Hawkeyes also lost to the Wolverines in the Big Ten tourney last season so there is extra motivation here - and, by the way, that neutral site game also went over the total. The Hawkeyes enter this game off a defeat and the over is 4-0 this season when they are off a Big Ten loss. The over is 9-5 in Michigan's February games the past two years. The long-term trending of these games going over when the Hawkeyes are the host continues here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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01-31-19 | Xavier v. Georgetown OVER 152.5 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs Xaviers Musketeers @ 8 ET - The last 7 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total. In addition to that perfect 7-0 O/U record, the over is 11-3 this season in Georgetown's games against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games overall. Georgetown is averaging 87 points per game this season but their defense certainly has not been overly impressive. That is where Xavier will look to take advantage. The Musketeers are off a loss versus Marquette Saturday where they had a big lead but perhaps got a little too complacent with hit and they paid the ultimate price as the Golden Eagles rallied for the win. Xavier won't make the same mistake here and they'll push the pace all game long and certainly the Hoyas are proven to enjoy the "run and gun" game this season. The over is 4-1 in the Musketeers last 5 games. Xavier has struggled to stop the 3-point shot this season and the Hoyas are averaging 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, look for a high-paced shootout and I am happy to take advantage of the line move here too as this one opened up at a 155 but is down to a 152.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Georgetown |
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01-31-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -6 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - This is an ideal set-up. UTSA is off of their miracle win at home against Old Dominion Saturday where the Roadrunners were down huge late but had an unreal rally in the final minutes for the last second win. Now UTSA goes back on the road where they lost (and failed to cover) each of their past two games. In fact, home teams are now on a 6-0 ATS run in Roadrunners games. Adding to the value here is they're heading to Western Kentucky and this Hilltoppers team has revenge on its mind. Not only did the Hilltoppers lose at UTSA last season, they also were knocked out of the CUSA Tourney the prior spring. That makes this a double revenge spot and Western Kentucky is at home and has played a tougher schedule in comparison with the Roadrunners. The Hilltoppers are 10-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record this season. Also, they won by 15 the last time they hosted UTSA. The Roadrunners are 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. That is the range that this one opened up in and now that it has dropped to a 6 there is even more value with the host as I am expecting a home blowout in this one. The Hilltoppers are off a loss but that game was at Louisiana Tech and now they are at home where they've won 4 of their last 5 including wins over St Mary's and Wisconsin in non-conference action. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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01-30-19 | Marquette v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #784 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - To the casual observer this line will look "off" but it is truly anything but. The betting markets may be a little confused as to how a Top Ten Marquette team that has won 7 straight games can be in the range of a 3-point dog against a Butler team that has lost 6 of its last 9 games. After all, take a look at the records too: Golden Eagles (18-3, 7-1 Big East) and the Bulldogs (12-9, 3-5 Big East). Wow, the odds makers made a big mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that. Many will be lining up on Marquette here but sharps will be on Butler as this game has home rout written all over it. The Golden Eagles are off an improbable win at Xavier as they were down by double digits to the Musketeers in the 2nd half. How did they do it? Ridiculous 3-point shooting which won't be repeated here. Marquette made 56% of their three pointers Saturday and that was in a road game folks. The Golden Eagles previously had one other insane road performance when they knocked down 57.1% of their threes at Creighton in a game they still only won by 2 points. Other than that, Marquette has been held to 28% from beyond the arc in their other 3 true road games (at Georgetown, St. Johns, and Indiana). The Bulldogs are a tough team to face at Butler and they're knocking down 40% of their threes in home games this season. They have played at Creighton and have faced Villanova and St John's in their last 3 games. Battle tested and ready for a statement win tonight, the Bulldogs did beat the Red Storm by 9 and that is the same team that crushed these Golden Eagles by 20 before they began their 7 game winning streak which has not included facing Villanova. The point is that the Golden Eagles are a little over-rated right now and the odds makers and sharp bettors know this but the betting masses are still overly high on Marquette right now. Creates an interesting match-up tonight and I also like the fact that Butler is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when they're at home off back to back ATS losses. Marquette is 17-27 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games against the Golden Eagles and they get the cash again on Wednesday evening. 10* BUTLER |
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01-29-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 139 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game was 141 yesterday. It has been adjusted down to as low as a 139 now. The last 7 meetings between these teams have all totaled at least 142 points. That's 7 straight game totals in match-ups between these teams that have eclipsed the total on this game. I understand the mindset that the Longhorns have to bounce back at home after giving up 98 points at Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this past weekend. However, Texas giving up high percentage shots on defense has been a recurring them in recent weeks. The O/U in Horns games is now 4-1 their last 5 and that includes 2-0 in home games. The Longhorns have allowed an average of 76.6 points per game during this stretch. As for Kansas, they employ a 4-guard lineup and of course that can cause some issues defending the paint and rebounding. The Jayhawks can score just fine though as they're averaging 77.3 points per game on the season. However, Kansas has allowed 72.5 points per game their last 4 games and the Longhorns have averaged 78 points per game in their last 3 meetings with the Jayhawks. That includes the 80-78 loss at Kansas two weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 7-0 in Jayhawks games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. The Kansas over is also 9-3 this season when off a non-conference game. The over is 5-2 in the Longhorns last 7 home games. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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01-29-19 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #624 Tuesday 8* Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - This line has dropped all the way from, in many books, opening as high as a 7 to getting bet down to a 4.5 as of early morning on game day. I do understand the move as everyone is looking at the revenge angle for the Bobcats here. The Huskies beat them at Ohio University in overtime in their MAC opener. However, the fact that Northern Illinois was able to erase a double digit deficit early in the second half of that game on the road at Ohio U is a bad sign for the Bobcats here. This game is being played at DeKalb and the Huskies are coming off a loss. That loss was not unexpected. After beating Buffalo, the best team in the MAC, Northern Illinois went on the road and was flat, as expected, and came up short at Akron. However, the Huskies are now back home and they are 7-1 SU (and 6-1 ATS) this season when coming off a loss this season. The Bobcats are a horrible team at the free throw line and that also tells you what kind of shooters they have. Ohio U, in road games this season, is making just 38.8% from the field (30% from beyond the arc) and just 62.8% from the free throw line. Northern Illinois is making 51.2% from the field at home (including 36% three pointers) and knocking down 72.3% from the charity stripe. The Huskies top four players all provide veteran leadership. I don't see them losing back to back games as that has happened only once this season. UNI is 6-1 ATS in home games and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in road games. All 8 Ohio U losses this season have come by 6 or more points. The Huskies only win this season by less than a 6 point margin was their 2-point upset win of the Bulls which was an accomplishment in and of itself. The point is that you can see why I am expecting the win and the cover for the home team in this one. 8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - With the Blue Devils off that suffocating effort on defense in their win over the Yellow Jackets Saturday, and the Fighting Irish off a blowout home loss versus Virginia the same day, everyone is lining up on Duke here (line has gone from -13 to -14.5 as of early Monday AM). The Blue Devils did get guard Tre Jones back from injury and that helped them run their full court press against Georgia Tech. However, even though Notre Dame lost senior guard Rex Pflueger to injury earlier this season and have turned to freshman Prentiss Hubb at the point, they still have done a great job of not turning the ball over. To that point, Duke is turning the ball over 13 times per game this season while Notre Dame is averaging only 10 turnovers per game. I like having the big points here with an Irish team that is off a blowout home loss and now facing a Duke team that has been struggling badly with its outside shooting for a few weeks now. From beyond the arc, the Blue Devils have been shooting a very poor percentage. That makes it tough to create a big winning margin in games and it comes as no surprise that Duke is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. By the way, in games in which Tre Jones has played it is an 0-3 ATS run for the Blue Devils! Also, Duke is 0-2 ATS the past two seasons in road games where they are favored in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. When playing with one day or less of rest between games this season the Blue Devils are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) this season while the Fighting Irish are 2-0 SU. I expect Duke to win this game but by single digits as the Irish give a huge effort after the embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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01-28-19 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona OVER 149 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 8* OVER the total in Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds @ 2 ET - The Thunderbirds are allowing 80.2 points on the road this season. The Lumberjacks are allowing 76.9 points per game at home this season. There will be a good pace to this game and plenty of open looks at the basket based on the way these two teams play. Northern Arizona is off a rare low-scoring game but they faced Northern Colorado, one of the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Similarly, Southern Utah is also off a game versus Northern Colorado and that stayed under the total. But the over was 6-1 in their 7 prior games in conference action. Also, when off a loss in conference action, the Thunderbirds are 20-11 to the over including a perfect 3-0 this season. Unlike Southern Utah, the Lumberjacks have more trends pointing toward the under in this match-up. However, Northern Arizona is knocking down 37.6% of their three pointers when at home and the Thunderbirds are allowing 37.4% three pointers on the road. That will prove to be a key to this match-up going over the total and both teams are poised to bounce back. Southern Utah was averaging 83.3 in their 4 games prior to the loss at Northern Colorado. The Lumberjacks had scored 81 points or more in 3 of their 4 games prior to their horrific effort on their home floor against Northern Colorado Saturday. Both teams will be happy to "run and gun" here after having just faced a tough Bears team. 8* OVER the total in Northern Arizona |
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01-27-19 | Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #835 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 5 ET - Iowa is averaging 82 points per game this season. Minnesota is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. The over is a long-term 17-9 when the Hawkeyes are off a Big Ten loss and that includes a perfect 3-0 this season. Also, when on the road in a game with a line ranging from pick'em to +3, Iowa has gone a perfect 3-0 to the over the past two seasons. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over the past two seasons in home games in which their line ranges from pick'em to -3. The Golden Gophers are also 3-0 to the over this season when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. Minny goes from facing the Big Ten's top defense (Michigan) to one of the Big Ten's worst (Iowa). The Hawkeyes go from facing a strong Michigan State defense to facing a Gophers D that, prior to the low-scoring grudge match with the Wolverines, had allowed 78 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Golden Gophers are allowing 38% three pointers at home this season and Iowa is a strong team from beyond the arc. This one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-27-19 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Villanova | 52-80 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #831 Sunday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 2:30 ET - The Wildcats have won 7 straight games but 4 of their last 6 victories have come by a margin of 8 or less points. Seton Hall is "only" 12-7 on the season but, after getting blown out by a margin of 23 points in their first loss of the season, the Pirates last 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 4 points per game defeat. 5 of the 6 defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. Look for Seton Hall to truly fit the definition of a "tough out" in this match-up with the Wildcats. The Pirates are 5-2 ATS this season as an underdog. Villanova enters this game having covered 3 straight games but that is their longest ATS streak of the season. Prior to the win at Butler in their most recent game, the last 3 times the Wildcats entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they failed to cover ALL 3 times! As for the Pirates, they are off back to back non-covers. That has happened 4 other times this season with Seton Hall. All 4 occurrences have resulted in the Pirates covering their next game. A perfect 4-0 ATS run. 8* SETON HALL |
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01-26-19 | Kansas +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6 ET - I am always happy to back high-quality teams when they are undervalued because the betting markets have turned against them. Keep in mind the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. That said, there is an anti-Kansas mindset right now because the Jayhawks have covered just 1 of 7 games since the calendar turned the page to 2019. However, Kansas is still a team that is 16-3 SU this season and two of those losses game by 4 points or less! Also, the Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule than Kentucky. But right now it is the Wildcats that are getting the love from bettors not only because of an 8-4 ATS run but 3 straight covers. Again, the short-term memory! Now there is no disputing that Kentucky is a great team but lets not just hand this game to the Wildcats! Kansas has won the turnover battle by a combined 35-23 in their last two meetings. That has helped lead to the Jayhawks having 22 more shot attempts from the field in the last two games (both Kansas wins) in the last two meetings between these highly regarded basketball powerhouses. Kentucky is on a 9-15 ATS run in January games and they are over-priced here, in my opinion, because the Cats are on an ATS run while Kansas is on an overall ATS slide. The fact is, of course, the Jayhawks are highly talented and very well-coached. Of course they can rise up for a game like this and if they do fall short I expect it to only be by a bucket or two. Upset is very possible here! Kansas has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. That is the first time that has happened this season. It happened 3 times in the past two seasons and, every single time, the Jayhawks won and covered their very next game. Look for that to be the result this time as well. 10* KANSAS |
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01-26-19 | West Virginia v. Tennessee OVER 152 | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #675 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Volunteers vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 4 ET - Of course the Mountaineers have a certain reputation for defense under coach Bob Huggins. However, West Virginia simply hasn't been the same team this season. Certainly it didn't help that they lost one of the nation's top defensive players, Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury. But, overall, their guard play on defense hasn't been there either this season. That is why the Mountaineers have allowed 85 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, West Virginia has allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. I just don't see the Mountaineers slowing down the nation's #1 ranked team. The Volunteers are highly motivated after "learning their lesson" in nearly losing at Vanderbilt Wednesday. Now back home and with plenty of motivation to keep their foot on the gas and not suffer another scare, I look for a ton of points in this one. Tennessee is averaging 86.2 points per game this season but certainly their defense has slipped up a bit of late. The Vols have allowed 36% or better from three point land in 5 straight games. Also, the Volunteers have allowed overall 47% shooting from the field in their last 3 games. The over is 4-1 in the Vols last 5 games. The over is also 4-1 in the Mountaineers last 5 games. The over is also 4-1 in West Virginia's last 5 games against SEC opponents and the Mountaineers are 5-1 to the over long-term in games in which they are a road dog of 12.5 points or more. When off a win in SEC action Tennessee is 4-1 to the over this season. Also, the Volunteers are 4-1 to the over in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5 points. 8* OVER the total in Tennessee |
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01-26-19 | Marquette v. Xavier +3 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #632 Saturday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2 ET - This is the type of classic situation that has worked very well for me through the years. Marquette is highly ranked and rolling and they are facing a Xavier team that has struggled in recent games and yet the Golden Eagles were as low as a 1 point favorite here when lines first came out. Of course that immediately got pushed higher and is as high as a -3 as of game day morning. I am on the other side of this one as per usual. Why? For one thing the Golden Eagles have played a very friendly schedule loaded with home games. Note that Marquette's two neutral site games saw them win by just 3 versus Louisville and lose by 9 to Kansas. In terms of true road games, the Golden Eagles have won at Georgetown and at Creighton but neither win was by more than 3 points. In their other 2 true road games they lost at St John's by 20 and at Indiana by 23. Yes that is the same Hoosiers team that looked like they didn't even belong on the same floor as Michigan in last night's home loss to the Wolverines. The point is I feel that Marquette has really not proved much of anything on the road this season and Xavier (after a tight loss to Providence Wednesday) is going to add to their solid 9-3 SU home record on the season. Naji Marshall is listed as a game-time decision for the Musketeers but I don't see him missing this game. The Musketeers have dominated this series when at home and that will prove to be the case again here. Don't be fooled by the line on this game. Upset time here but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 8* XAVIER |
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01-26-19 | Illinois v. Maryland OVER 144.5 | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Maryland Terrapins vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET @ Madison Square Garden in New York, NY - This neutral-site game is part of the Big Ten's annual Super Saturday College Hoops and Hockey double-header. Though Maryland games have stayed under the total in 3 straight games, the Terrapins have faced some quality defenses to say the least. Prior to those 3 games, Terps games were on a perfect 7-0 run to the over. Also, the Illini are allowing 75.3 points per game this season which is dead last in the Big Ten. The most recent game for Illinois stayed under the total but that was versus defensive-minded Wisconsin. Prior to that one, Illini games were on a 3-0 run to the over. This total opened up as high as a 148 and is now down to as low as a 144.5 as of about 5 hours before tip-off. I am happy to grab the additional value here with the over as Maryland is looking for a break-out game and will run and gun after their 7 game win streak came to an end courtesy of a low-scoring loss at Michigan State. Of course the Illini are not the Spartans and the Terrapins bounce back big here. The Terps had averaged 77.3 points per game in their 9 games prior to scoring just 55 at Michigan State. The Illini loss versus Wisconsin saw Illinois score only 60 points which tied their lowest scoring output of the season. This is the type of situation today that will see both teams in full bounce back mode with an emphasis on quick baskets and getting their flow back on offense. The over is 6-2 this season when Illinois is off a Big Ten game. 8* OVER the total in Maryland (neutral site game) |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - The very first number that popped up offshore on this total was a 157 and it has since plummeted to as low as 152.5 in some spots. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here but it is, of course, not without reason. First off, Butler is 7-0 to the over this season in conference games. Secondly, Creighton is 3-0 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. The Bluejays lost at Butler earlier this month and that game was the 2nd straight in this series that flew over the total. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. Creighton relies heavily on knocking down their 3-pointers and they are hitting 47.7% from beyond the arc in home games this season. Butler is also having a solid season from 3-point land as the Bulldogs are hitting 37.4% of their threes on the season. In fact, Butler has averaged better than 40% from three point land in their last 4 games and two of those games were on the road as well! Amazingly, the Bluejays have hit 40% or better from three point land in 9 of their 10 home games this season. The lone exception was against Ohio State and they still hit 36% against the Buckeyes! Creighton is loaded with shooters and they particularly like the "run and gun" approach when playing at home. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Bluejays games against teams with a winning record. Take advantage of the drop on this total from the opener. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-25-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +4.5 | 69-46 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Friday 8* Indiana Hoosiers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - I have said it before and I'll say it again...do you think the odds makers are stupid? The fact is the betting markets tend to jump on situations like this and this is when the true value is on the other side which is why I go contrarians. The Hoosiers enter this game on a 5-game losing streak. Also, the Wolverines have beaten Indiana 5 straight times and each of the last 4 victories have come by a double digit margin. That said, how can the odds maker open up with a -3.5 on Michigan in this one? Precisely! It is why I am on the Hoosiers as a dangerous home dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Wolverines have struggled particularly in their last 2 games and are on an overall 4-7 ATS run. Also, even though Indiana has lost 5 straight games, 4 of those were on the road. The Hoosiers are a very talented team but are quite young. Teams like this are much more dangerous on their home floor when their fans are behind them rather than when facing hostility on the road. Indiana lost their most recent home game but they were frustrated by the Nebraska defense. Prior to that defeat the Hoosiers were 10-0 SU at home this season. Also, Michigan's shooting has gone cold in the last two games. That is unlikely to suddenly cure itself on the road. The Wolverines are a long-term 15-24 ATS in road games with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points. The Hoosiers are a long-term 15-9 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* INDIANA |
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01-24-19 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Iowa | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Thursday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - These teams have nearly equivalent records on the season but the Spartans have played a tougher schedule. The early movement has been toward the Hawkeyes here but I am going contrarian and laying the points with the road favorite. While it is true that this is a revenge game for Iowa and they are at home, it is also true that Michigan State is battle tested and has proven they are one of the top teams in the nation. Look for defense to be a key factor here as the Spartans allow only 36.6% from the field while the Hawkeyes are allowing 43.4% from the field this season. Iowa is 3-6 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Also, the Hawkeyes are a long-term 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 155 to 159.5 points. The Spartans are on an 8-0 ATS run and also a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS this season in Big Ten games. Their roll continues on Thursday evening. After a lackluster 2nd half performance at home against Maryland on Monday, the Spartans drew the ire of their head coach and you can bank on them going hard for the full forty minutes in this one and that leads to a solid road rout. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |