Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-15-25 | Celtics v. Nets +11 | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 6 pm et on Saturday. We'll take the generous points with Brooklyn as the Nets look to bounce back from consecutive losses in a home game against the Celtics. Boston is coming off a win and cover in Miami last night and may have its focus shifted toward a couple of days off before their next matchup on Tuesday at home against this same Brooklyn team. Prior to last night's win, the Celtics had dropped the cash in consecutive games and are just 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. Brooklyn will be motivated to keep this divisional game closer than expected. With the Celtics potentially looking past this one, we like the Nets to cover the spread. Take Brooklyn. Projected score: Boston 112, Brooklyn 108. |
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03-11-25 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 234 | Top | 114-115 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana enters this contest on a five-game 'under' streak, but that trend is unlikely to continue given the way both teams play. The Pacers pushed the pace in Monday's loss to Chicago, firing off 101 field goal attempts but struggling with their shooting. That kind of volume is encouraging for an 'over' play, as the scoring will likely bounce back sooner rather than later. Indiana has consistently created plenty of opportunities, hoisting at least 90 shots in three straight games while showing little commitment to defense, allowing at least 94 opponent field goal attempts in four consecutive contests. Milwaukee should also be in an aggressive mindset after dropping back-to-back games over the weekend. The Bucks had been giving up plenty of high-percentage looks before Sunday's loss to Cleveland, having allowed five straight opponents to hit 42+ field goals. That should work in Indiana’s favor, as the Pacers have shown they’re willing to push the tempo regardless of their recent shooting struggles. With two uptempo teams and both squads eager to get back on track, expect a high-scoring affair. Take the over. Projected score: Milwaukee 127, Indiana 122. |
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03-10-25 | Nuggets +9 v. Thunder | Top | 140-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Monday. |
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03-05-25 | Wolves v. Hornets +9 | Top | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This is a tricky scheduling spot for Minnesota as it looks to secure a third straight win both straight-up and against the spread after a second consecutive double-digit victory last night over Philadelphia. Prior to that surge, the Timberwolves had dropped back-to-back games both SU and ATS and have struggled with consistency dating back to early February. With this being the second leg of a back-to-back and a potential letdown looming, I don’t expect the same level of intensity from Minnesota in this matchup. Charlotte is in the midst of a rough stretch, having lost seven in a row while dropping its last two against the spread. That said, this is a favorable revenge spot for the Hornets after suffering a blowout loss in Minnesota earlier this season. Already 0-2 on their current homestand, they’ll be eager to turn things around before Cleveland arrives on Friday. Given the situation, I expect Charlotte to come out with energy and push Minnesota in what should be a closer game than anticipated. Take Charlotte. Projected score: Minnesota 106, Charlotte 104. |
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03-03-25 | Blazers v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Portland and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday. Both teams are coming off 'over' results, with Portland cashing three straight, but the numbers suggest a lower-scoring contest here. The Blazers' game in Cleveland yesterday included overtime, yet both teams still only made 42 field goals each. Portland has quietly tightened up defensively, holding five of its last six opponents under 40 made field goals in regulation. Philadelphia, meanwhile, snapped a long losing streak with an 'upset' win over Golden State on Saturday, thanks to an uncharacteristically hot shooting night. That type of offensive explosion has been rare for the 76ers, who have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Expect this matchup to settle into a slower-paced, defensive-oriented affair. Take the under. Projected score: 76ers 108 Trail Blazers 102. |
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03-02-25 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the over between the Clippers and Lakers at 9:30 pm ET on Sunday. These teams just faced off on Friday in a defensive battle that ended in a 106-102 Lakers victory. However, I expect a faster pace and higher-scoring affair in this rematch. The Lakers have now gone under the total in six consecutive games, matching their longest such streak of the season. That trend has likely caused oddsmakers to set the total a bit too low for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been alternating between over and under results, having not played consecutive under games since mid-January. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect this one to break the recent under trend. Take the over. Projected score: Clippers 118, Lakers 113. |
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03-01-25 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 227.5 | Top | 132-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday. While both teams enter this matchup riding 'under' streaks, the recent pace of play and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a higher-scoring affair. Milwaukee has seen back-to-back 'under' results, but those games weren’t due to a lack of opportunities—its opponents attempted 91 and 105 field goals, exposing some defensive weaknesses. On the offensive side, the Bucks found a rhythm in their recent win over Denver, putting up 90 field goal attempts, their most in seven games. Dallas has cashed four straight 'under' tickets, but that has more to do with poor shooting efficiency than a lack of possessions. The Mavericks have attempted 98 and 97 field goals in their last two games, keeping the pace high. More importantly, their defense has been shaky, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to get off more than 90 shot attempts. If Milwaukee continues to push the tempo and Dallas struggles defensively, this total should be in play for an 'over.' Take the 'over'. Projected score: Milwaukee 122, Dallas 118. |
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02-28-25 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-125 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Chicago at 8 pm ET on Friday. The Raptors are coming off a predictable 111-91 blowout loss in Indiana, where they ran into a highly motivated Pacers squad seeking revenge. Now, the script flips as Toronto will look to avenge two previous losses against Chicago this season, including an ‘upset’ defeat as a 4.5-point home favorite on January 31st. Despite their ATS setback against the Pacers, the Raptors remain an impressive 13-7 ATS over their last 20 games. Meanwhile, the Bulls enter this contest on a four-game ATS winning streak but have won outright just once in their last eight outings. Chicago’s porous defense has been a glaring issue, as it has allowed nine of its last ten opponents to make at least 42 field goals. Toronto is primed for a bounce-back effort offensively after shooting just 37-for-87 from the field in Indiana. Expect the Raptors to keep this one tight, if not pull off the outright win. Take Toronto. Projected score: Toronto 115, Chicago 112. |
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02-26-25 | Kings v. Jazz OVER 236 | Top | 118-101 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the over between Sacramento and Utah at 9 pm ET on Wednesday. Both teams are coming off 'under' results, but I expect a different outcome in this matchup. The Kings took advantage of a struggling Hornets squad two nights ago, holding them to just 30 made field goals in a blowout win. However, prior to that game, Sacramento had allowed at least 43 made field goals in 9 of its previous 10 and 12 of its last 14 contests. Meanwhile, the Jazz are fresh off a poor shooting performance against Portland on Monday, but they've attempted 90 or more field goals in three straight games. They’ll have their chances to bounce back offensively here. On the defensive side, Utah has been highly permissive, allowing six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. Sacramento has been efficient offensively, making 40+ field goals in six straight games and 25 of its last 26. This game has all the makings of a high-paced, high-scoring affair. Take the over. Projected score: Kings 128, Jazz 122. |
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02-26-25 | Raptors v. Pacers -10 | Top | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Toronto at 7 pm ET on Wednesday. The Pacers were in a tough spot on Monday, playing the second leg of a back-to-back against a well-rested Denver squad eager to snap its losing skid. Indiana came up short both SU and ATS in that contest, but I expect a much stronger performance here. With a day of rest, Indiana should be in prime position to bounce back against a Raptors team that just covered the spread in a hard-fought home game against Boston last night. This will be a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, playing its second game in as many nights and heading on the road against a motivated Pacers team. Indiana has undoubtedly had this game circled after suffering two 'upset' losses in Toronto earlier this season. Look for the Pacers to take care of business at home. Take Indiana. Projected score: Indiana 128, Toronto 111. |
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02-23-25 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday. The Bucks have embraced a more methodical approach in recent games, resulting in three straight victories and three consecutive 'under' cashes. They've attempted 82 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games, converting on fewer than 40 of those in all four contests. That trend aligns with a defensive emphasis that has seen Milwaukee hold each of its last four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. Miami figures to present another tough defensive challenge. The Heat have limited four of their last six opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they managed an efficient 46 field goals in Friday’s 120-111 win over Toronto, that came against a far weaker defensive opponent than the Bucks. Prior to that, Miami had been held to under 40 field goals in four straight games. These two teams last met on January 23rd in a game that was played at a faster pace than expected yet still finished with just 221 total points. Given both teams' recent trends and defensive focus, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair. Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 108, Miami 104. |
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02-12-25 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 223 | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:40 pm ET on Wednesday. Both teams enter this contest on two-game 'under' streaks, but I expect a shift toward a higher-scoring affair. The Suns are coming off their second straight loss, falling 119-112 at home to the Grizzlies last night. A big reason for Phoenix’s struggles has been its porous defense, allowing four consecutive opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. The Suns have also given up 40 or more made field goals in 16 of their last 18 games, with their last four foes connecting on 52, 48, 45, and 43 shots from the field. That defensive vulnerability sets up a prime bounce-back spot for a rested and favored Houston squad. The Rockets struggled offensively in a sluggish 94-87 matinee victory over Toronto on Sunday, shooting just 31-for-86 from the field. However, they showed their ability to push the pace in their previous outing, hoisting up 100 shot attempts against the Mavericks. Two of Houston’s last three opponents have attempted 90 or more field goals, paving the way for an up-tempo battle on Wednesday. Take the over. Projected score: Houston 118, Phoenix 114. |
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02-11-25 | Raptors v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm ET on Tuesday. We'll lay the points with the 76ers as they look to snap their three-game SU and four-game ATS losing streaks at home against their division rival. Philadelphia has been caught up in consecutive high-paced matchups on the road against Detroit and Milwaukee but should be able to dictate the tempo in this contest against an inferior Toronto squad. The Raptors have dropped four straight games but have managed to cover the spread in their last two. However, that doesn’t mean they’re playing well—they’ve made fewer than 40 field goals in three straight contests, highlighting their offensive struggles. Expect Philadelphia to take control early and roll to a double-digit victory. Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 119, Toronto 102. |
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02-08-25 | Rockets +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Dallas at 3 pm ET on Saturday. The Rockets have hit a rough patch, dropping five straight games, including back-to-back ATS losses. However, despite their current struggles, they remain a solid road team with a 17-11 SU and ATS record away from home. I expect them to show up here, motivated to snap their skid against a familiar division foe. Dallas has responded well in the wake of the Luka Doncic trade, picking up consecutive ATS wins, including an impressive road victory in Boston on Thursday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot against a Houston squad that already proved it can win on this floor, having defeated the Mavs in Dallas on Halloween Night. Look for the Rockets to keep this one tight. Take Houston. Projected score: Houston 113, Dallas 110. |
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02-06-25 | Pacers v. Clippers OVER 227.5 | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday. We'll call for a high-scoring affair as the Pacers look to bounce back from a shocking blowout loss in Portland, while the Clippers aim to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the rival Lakers on Tuesday. Despite the 'under' cashing in Indiana's last two games, the Pacers continue to push the tempo, allowing four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to attempt at least 89 field goals. They've also surrendered 40+ made field goals in three of their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled defensively, allowing four consecutive opponents to hit 42 or more shots from the field. Indiana’s offense should benefit in this spot after seeing its streak of six straight games making 43+ field goals halted against Portland in a tough back-to-back situation. Expect plenty of scoring in this non-conference matchup. Take the 'over'. Projected score: Indiana 121, Los Angeles 118. |
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02-05-25 | Magic +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm ET on Wednesday. Despite their recent struggles, I like the way this game sets up for the Magic. They've dropped four straight games both SU and ATS, but they've had a day off following a tough battle with the Warriors on Monday. With a looming back-to-back in Denver on Thursday, expect them to give everything they have in this spot. Sacramento snapped a two-game skid with an 'upset' victory over Minnesota on Monday but has been inconsistent, going just 2-4 SU over its last six games and 2-5 ATS over its last seven. The Kings have also failed to post back-to-back ATS victories since mid-January, highlighting their inconsistency. I look for Orlando to put together a complete effort and potentially steal this one outright. Take Orlando. Projected score: Orlando 112, Sacramento 109. |
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02-03-25 | Wizards v. Hornets -4 | Top | 124-114 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm ET on Monday. The Wizards managed a surprising upset win in Minnesota on Saturday, snapping a brutal losing streak that dated back to January 1st. However, winning isn't really in their best interest at this point, as they remain in full-on tank mode for a high draft pick. I expect them to revert to their losing ways on Monday as they head to Charlotte. The Hornets are mired in a four-game losing streak but have shown signs of life, covering the spread in consecutive games. Despite dropping both previous meetings with Washington this season—both coming in a short span back in December—Charlotte is in a good position to respond at home here. Given their recent ATS performances and the Wizards' general lack of competitiveness, I'll lay the points with the Hornets. Take Charlotte. Projected score: Charlotte 116, Washington 105. |
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01-29-25 | Bulls v. Celtics -14.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday. We'll back the Celtics to bounce back after a tough last-second 114-112 home loss against Houston on Monday. Boston hasn't lost consecutive games since late December, and I expect a strong response in this favorable spot. Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive upset win over Denver but has still gone just 2-7 SU and ATS over its last nine contests. Notably, the SU winner has covered the spread in 20 consecutive games involving the Bulls. With Boston eager to get back in the win column before embarking on a three-game road trip, look for the Celtics to dominate from start to finish. Take Boston. Projected score: Boston 120, Chicago 102. |
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01-27-25 | Rockets v. Celtics UNDER 222.5 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Monday. Both teams come into this game off higher-scoring results on Saturday, but I expect the script to shift as they meet in Boston. This is the second and final regular season meeting between these teams, with the first matchup on January 3rd producing just 195 total points in a Celtics blowout victory in Houston. Notably, Boston shot exceptionally well in that game, hitting 39-of-77 from the field, a performance that may not repeat itself here. The Rockets have regained their defensive edge recently, holding three of their last four opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Similarly, Boston has held opponents to 42 or fewer field goals in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped out at 44 made field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston's offensive output has also dipped lately, as the Rockets have made just 37, 40, and 45 field goals over their last three contests after a stretch where they knocked down 48, 49, and 49. Expect a slower pace and a focus on defense in this clash. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Boston 110, Houston 103. |
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01-23-25 | Blazers v. Magic -8 | Top | 101-79 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Portland at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are in need of a bounce-back after dropping four straight SU and ATS, but this matchup against the Trail Blazers presents the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Despite their recent struggles, Orlando remains 23-22 on the season and has been competitive throughout. Returning home after a tough loss to a motivated Raptors squad, the Magic will be eager to capitalize on this winnable two-game homestand. Portland has shown some life recently, recording back-to-back upset wins, but those victories followed a five-game SU losing streak and a four-game ATS skid. The Trail Blazers are just 15-28 overall and remain vulnerable, especially on the road against a team like Orlando that has shown it can dominate weaker opponents. Take Orlando. Projected score: Magic 117, Trail Blazers 103. |
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01-21-25 | Knicks v. Nets +11.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over New York at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday. The Knicks secured a win and cover yesterday afternoon against the Nets but have struggled with consistency, alternating wins and losses over their last six games while posting a 2-4 ATS mark during that stretch. Brooklyn enters this matchup with double-revenge motivation after dropping two meetings in Manhattan earlier this season (going 1-1 ATS in those contests). While the Nets just wrapped up a tough 1-5 road trip, they managed to go 3-3 ATS and now return home, where they should perform better. Additionally, Brooklyn has faced one of the league's toughest schedules this season, a challenge far greater than what the Knicks have encountered. While the Nets are on a back-to-back with a game against the Suns looming tomorrow, the Knicks may already be looking ahead to a favorable five-game homestand starting Saturday. With those dynamics in play, the Nets are well-positioned to keep this game close, if not secure an outright victory. Take Brooklyn. Projected score: New York 109, Brooklyn 106. |
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01-17-25 | Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 239.5 | Top | 140-112 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and San Antonio at 9:40 pm ET on Friday. While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances and have trended toward the 'over' in recent games, I anticipate a shift in pace and defensive intensity in this rematch. Memphis, despite its recent stretch of 'over' results, has shown defensive consistency by holding four of its last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. That defensive capability will likely come into play here. Additionally, San Antonio, which has struggled defensively in stretches, is capable of tightening up. The Spurs had held nine of their previous 11 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals before Wednesday’s game. That poor showing defensively likely serves as a wake-up call as they aim to limit Memphis’ shooting efficiency, which was an unsustainable 51-for-103 in the last meeting. Expect both teams to make adjustments and this game to trend lower-scoring compared to their recent clash. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Memphis 115, San Antonio 106. |
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01-14-25 | Nuggets v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 9:40 pm ET on Tuesday. The Mavericks find themselves in a quick rematch situation after dropping a 112-101 decision at home against the Nuggets on Sunday. While Denver is riding a three-game SU and ATS winning streak, it’s worth noting that its road form has been inconsistent this season, evidenced by a 9-10 ATS mark away from home. The Nuggets are due for some regression in what could be a flat spot after a strong stretch of performances. Dallas, on the other hand, will be eager to respond and capitalize on its familiarity with Denver after Sunday’s game. The Mavs’ ability to adjust defensively and create better offensive opportunities will be key as they look to halt the Nuggets' momentum. Given the circumstances, I expect a strong effort from Dallas to keep this one tight and possibly steal the win. Take Dallas. Projected score: Dallas 111, Denver 109. |
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01-08-25 | Bulls v. Pacers OVER 240 | Top | 113-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Indiana at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Both teams enter this contest having leaned toward lower-scoring games in recent outings, but the underlying dynamics point to a high-tempo, high-scoring affair. Chicago is coming off an 'under' result in an impressive 'upset' win over San Antonio on Monday. However, the Bulls have struggled defensively, allowing six consecutive opponents to convert on more than 40 field goals and three straight to make 44 or more. Adding to the defensive woes, Chicago has allowed 95+ field goal attempts in five straight games, signaling an inability—or unwillingness—to slow the pace. Indiana has also recorded consecutive 'under' results, including a 113-99 victory over Brooklyn on Monday. Despite this, the Pacers' recent games have featured plenty of opportunities for opposing offenses. Five of Indiana’s last seven opponents have attempted at least 92 field goals, and six of those opponents have successfully converted more than 40 shots. With both teams trending toward faster paces and allowing high shooting volumes, this matchup sets up as a potential track meet. Chicago's defensive struggles and Indiana's openness to high-volume games create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair. Look for both offenses to capitalize on the lack of defensive resistance. Take the over. Projected score: Indiana 127, Chicago 120. |
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01-06-25 | Heat +4 v. Kings | Top | 118-123 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 p.m. ET on Monday. Miami comes into this game off a disappointing 1-2 homestand, including surprising losses to Indiana and Utah. Despite those setbacks, this matchup presents a strong opportunity for the Heat to bounce back, as they face a Sacramento team in a tricky scheduling spot. Miami’s experience and discipline make them a dangerous underdog, particularly in situations where the opponent may be less than fully focused. Sacramento enters this game riding high after a dominant blowout win over Golden State in San Francisco on Sunday, extending their winning streak to four games. However, the Kings now face the challenge of playing the second of back-to-back nights with travel. Complicating matters, this is a one-game return home before they head back on the road for a tough three-game trip starting in Boston on Friday. The circumstances make this a potential letdown spot for Sacramento, especially against a motivated Heat squad. Expect Miami to capitalize on the Kings’ tough scheduling spot and bring a more focused effort after their recent struggles. The Heat have the tools to keep this game competitive and could very well spring the outright upset. Take Miami. Projected score: Miami 112, Sacramento 110. |
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12-28-24 | Thunder v. Hornets +12.5 | Top | 106-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Oklahoma City at 6:10 pm ET on Saturday. We'll side with the struggling Hornets as they look to snap a six-game skid. Charlotte comes off a disappointing 'upset' loss in Washington on Thursday, but this matchup against Oklahoma City presents an opportunity for a much-needed bounce-back effort. While the Hornets have failed to cover in back-to-back games, they’ve shown the ability to keep contests close at home, particularly against teams on the second leg of a tough travel schedule. The Thunder roll into town riding high on a four-game winning streak, most recently notching a hard-fought 120-114 victory in Indiana on Thursday. However, this game falls into a challenging scheduling spot, with Oklahoma City returning home tomorrow to start a five-game homestand against the Grizzlies—a potential look-ahead scenario. Charlotte should be able to capitalize on the Thunder's lack of focus and hang within the number, buoyed by a home crowd eager to see its team end the losing streak. Take Charlotte. Projected score: Oklahoma City 112, Charlotte 110. |
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12-26-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 208.5 | Top | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 7 pm ET on Thursday. These two teams recently met in a surprisingly high-scoring affair, with the Magic pulling out a 121-114 victory on December 21st. However, I anticipate a much different outcome in this rematch, with a slower pace and stronger defensive play dictating the flow of the game. Miami has excelled defensively of late, holding three straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of their last nine foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. On offense, the Heat have struggled to find rhythm, managing more than 41 made field goals only once in their last six games and being limited to exactly 36 in three straight contests. Orlando has also leaned on its defense, holding four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Magic have been kept to 41 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 10 games, contributing to their consistent 'under' trends. While the previous matchup saw an unusually high shooting percentage from both teams, I expect this rematch to be far more subdued, especially with both squads well-rested and emphasizing defense. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Orlando 101, Miami 96. |
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12-19-24 | Lakers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm ET on Thursday. Sacramento enters this matchup looking to rebound from a frustrating one-point home loss to Denver on Monday. The Kings have been a force offensively, converting 49 or more field goals in three of their last four games while consistently pushing the pace with 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests. This up-tempo style should put significant pressure on a Lakers team that thrives in slower-paced games but has struggled to control tempo recently, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five games. Offensively, the Lakers have been inconsistent, failing to make 40 field goals in three straight games and in nine of their last 11 overall. While they are coming off an upset home win against Memphis, the matchup with Sacramento presents a much tougher challenge, particularly with the Kings eager to bounce back on their home court. Expect Sacramento’s relentless pace and efficient scoring to prove too much for Los Angeles to handle in this spot. Take Sacramento. Projected score: Sacramento 122, Los Angeles 110. |
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12-16-24 | 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Monday. This matchup features two teams trending toward lower-scoring outcomes, and I anticipate more of the same here. While their December 3rd meeting resulted in an 'over,' it required a late surge in scoring to get there—something unlikely to repeat in this rematch. The 76ers' offense has been consistently limited, failing to reach 44 made field goals in any of their 23 games this season. While Philadelphia gave up 47 field goals in their most recent outing against Indiana, that was an exception. Over the last 12 games, the Sixers have held 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals, showcasing their defensive strength. Charlotte has struggled offensively, making 40 or fewer field goals in nine consecutive games. Despite their offensive woes, the Hornets have remained competitive defensively, holding 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer field goals. With both teams leaning on defense and showing significant limitations on offense, especially in terms of efficiency, this contest is likely to grind its way to a lower total than their previous meeting. Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 106, Charlotte 98. |
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12-13-24 | Nets v. Grizzlies -11.5 | Top | 119-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm ET on Friday. Memphis has been an offensive juggernaut recently, consistently creating opportunities and converting at a high rate. The Grizzlies have hoisted 93 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven games, knocking down 45 or more field goals in each of those six contests. This relentless pace will put tremendous pressure on a Brooklyn defense that has managed to limit opposing teams' field goals primarily due to slower game tempos rather than overwhelming defensive prowess. Brooklyn has struggled offensively, being held to 41 or fewer made field goals in five straight and eight of their last nine games, a trend unlikely to reverse against a Grizzlies defense that has limited its last eight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals despite several of those games featuring high shot volumes. The Grizzlies also have the motivational edge, as they look to avenge a narrow 106-104 loss to the Nets earlier this season. That defeat came despite Memphis being favored by 4.5 points, a spread that reflects their capability to dominate this matchup. Playing at home, where they thrive, Memphis should dictate the tempo and overwhelm a Brooklyn team that lacks the firepower and consistency to keep pace. Take Memphis. Projected score: Memphis 119, Brooklyn 104. |
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12-10-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 9:30 pm ET on Tuesday. Dallas enters this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak, but it hasn’t been as dominant as the streak suggests. The Mavericks are coming off an ATS loss to Toronto on Saturday, and their offensive efficiency has been inconsistent, with three of their last five opponents holding them to 41 or fewer made field goals. Defensively, Dallas has struggled to limit opposing opportunities, allowing seven of its last nine foes to attempt at least 90 field goals. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is in excellent form, having won and covered in three straight games. The Thunder’s defensive intensity has been a hallmark of their success, holding six consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, they’re clicking, connecting on 42 or more field goals in four straight contests. With a chance to avenge a narrow two-point home loss to the Mavericks last month, expect a focused effort from OKC on Tuesday night. Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Oklahoma City 119, Dallas 108. |
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12-09-24 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 232 | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:40 pm ET on Monday. While the Knicks have seen their last three games go 'over' the total, those results were fueled more by efficient shooting than pace. New York has managed just 85, 76, and 79 field goal attempts in those contests, suggesting they haven't been pushing the tempo. On the defensive end, the Knicks have been steady, holding four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Toronto, meanwhile, has been solid defensively, allowing fewer than 40 made field goals in three of its last four and five of its last seven games. The Raptors' ability to force tough shots should help keep the scoring in check against a Knicks squad that has relied heavily on shooting efficiency to reach higher totals. Take the 'under.' Projected score: New York 110, Toronto 106. |
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12-04-24 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 226.5 | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Indiana has been one of the most offense-oriented teams in the league, often turning games into high-scoring affairs, regardless of their opponents. The Pacers are fresh off a 122-111 loss in Toronto last night, marking their third straight defeat. Their defense has been consistently porous, allowing five consecutive opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. Offensively, while Indiana fell short of its usual production last night, snapping a streak of 10 straight games with over 40 made field goals, the Pacers are primed for a bounce-back effort. Brooklyn’s offensive struggles have been evident, but this matchup with Indiana provides a perfect opportunity for the Nets to find their rhythm. The Pacers' up-tempo style and defensive lapses should enable Brooklyn to put up points, especially considering the Nets have given up 40 or more made field goals in four of their last five contests. This matchup sets up as a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Take the 'over.' Projected score: Indiana 125, Brooklyn 119. |
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11-22-24 | Kings -3 v. Clippers | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Friday. Sacramento heads into this matchup looking to rebound after a narrow 109-108 home loss to Atlanta earlier in the week. The Kings stand at 8-7 on the season, with a solid 4-3 record on the road, showing they can compete effectively away from home. The Clippers, meanwhile, are riding a three-game winning streak, most recently defeating Orlando 104-93. Los Angeles claimed a 107-98 victory in the first meeting between these teams on November 8th, a game heavily influenced by Sacramento's uncharacteristically poor shooting from beyond the arc, where they went just 3-for-26. It's unlikely the Kings will struggle to that extent again, giving them a strong opportunity to turn the tables in this rematch. Sacramento's ability to push the tempo and create scoring chances in transition could be a decisive factor, as the Clippers have shown vulnerability in such situations. Additionally, the Kings’ depth should provide them with an edge over Los Angeles, which relies heavily on its stars. Take Sacramento. Projected score: Sacramento 112, Los Angeles 106. |
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11-21-24 | Jazz +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 118-126 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Thursday. While Utah has struggled this season, it already showed it can compete with San Antonio, winning a close 111-110 contest here earlier this month. The Jazz have lost three straight to start their current road trip, but they’ve faced tougher opponents during that stretch. This matchup presents a more favorable opportunity to remain competitive. San Antonio, while coming off an impressive upset over Oklahoma City, continues to struggle offensively, ranking tied for 24th in the league in points per game. The Spurs’ lack of pace (tied for 19th) and inconsistent scoring make them a vulnerable favorite in this spot. Without a reliable edge in offensive production, it could be difficult for San Antonio to pull away. Utah’s familiarity with this opponent, combined with the likely tighter tempo, sets the stage for a close game where the points hold value. Take Utah. Projected score: San Antonio 109, Utah 108. |
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11-19-24 | Hornets v. Nets UNDER 222 | Top | 115-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday. Charlotte has been involved in high-scoring games recently, but their offensive production remains among the league's worst, ranking 25th in points per game and 24th in offensive rating. The Hornets' struggles to generate consistent offense make it difficult to sustain the elevated scoring pace seen in their last two games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, tied for 28th in pace, which naturally limits possessions and opportunities for high scores. The Nets are also coming off a game in which they failed to crack 110 points, highlighting their offensive inconsistencies. Historically, matchups between these teams haven’t featured much offensive fireworks, with their most recent meeting last March totaling only 209 points. Given both teams' tendencies and their recent form, this game is more likely to follow a methodical pace and struggle to exceed the posted total. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Brooklyn 108, Charlotte 103. |
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11-18-24 | Pacers v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 119-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm ET on Monday. Toronto enters this matchup on a seven-game losing streak, including a hard-fought 126-123 overtime loss to Boston on Saturday. While the Raptors are struggling, they’ve shown the ability to remain competitive against tough opponents, especially at home. Their defense has been better than their record suggests, and they’ll likely prioritize stopping Indiana’s fast-paced attack to keep this game close. The Raptors should also benefit from Indiana playing the second game of a back-to-back, potentially facing fatigue. Indiana improved to 6-7 with a 119-110 win over Miami yesterday but has been inconsistent on the road, where they are just 2-5 this season. While the Pacers have had offensive success, especially in transition, the scheduling spot could make it difficult for them to sustain their scoring output. Toronto’s home-court energy and defensive focus give the Raptors a strong chance to break their losing streak or at least keep this one within the number. Take Toronto. Projected score: Indiana 116, Toronto 114. |
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11-15-24 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Denver at 8 pm ET on Friday. New Orleans enters this game on a six-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, but this matchup presents an opportunity for a turnaround. While the Pelicans struggled offensively in their 106-88 loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, they’ve shown flashes of being competitive earlier in the season. Denver has been winning games, but its defensive performance has been less than stellar of late, allowing at least 119 points in four straight contests. That defensive vulnerability could give the Pelicans a chance to keep this one close, particularly if their offense finds any rhythm. Denver has been idle since Sunday, when it edged Dallas 122-120 at home. While the Nuggets have shown their usual offensive firepower, their inability to put teams away on the defensive end leaves the door open for New Orleans to hang around. With Denver being such a significant favorite, this line may slightly overestimate their edge against a desperate Pelicans squad. Take New Orleans plus the points. Projected score: Denver 112, New Orleans 110. |
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11-13-24 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 222 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. In an interesting scheduling quirk, this will be the third meeting between the Timberwolves and Trail Blazers this season. They won't match up again until February. Both previous matchups have been relatively high-scoring, producing 'over' results. That includes last night's 122-108 stunner in favor of the Blazers. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in tonight's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves still rank top-10 in the league in defensive rating this season, not to mention 18th in pace. Portland is an identical 28th in the NBA in both points per game and offensive rating this season. The Blazers actually got off just 84 field goal attempts in last night's 122-point outburst. They quite simply shot the lights out in that game including a blistering 18-for-32 from beyond the arc. I'm not expecting anything close to a repeat performance on Wednesday. Take the under. Projected score: Minnesota 107, Portland 102. |
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11-13-24 | Wizards +10 v. Spurs | Top | 130-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Wednesday. The Wizards enter this matchup with a disappointing 2-7 record and are coming off a 107-92 loss in Houston. The silver lining is that Kyle Kuzma returned from injury in that game, providing a much-needed boost to their rotation. Washington will look to Kuzma to help elevate a struggling offense and keep pace with San Antonio, especially given their success in the last meeting, when they managed a 118-113 win over the Spurs last January. San Antonio, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive 116-96 blowout win over Sacramento, showing their ability to step up defensively when needed. However, the Spurs have been inconsistent, sitting at 5-6 on the season, and could be vulnerable in a spot where they're expected to cover a larger spread. Washington's experience and Kuzma’s return should help them remain competitive here. Take Washington plus the points. Projected score: San Antonio 111, Washington 108. |
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11-12-24 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | Top | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 10 pm ET on Tuesday. Dallas enters this matchup following a high-scoring 122-120 loss in Denver, but the Mavericks typically play a more controlled, slower-paced game, ranking 18th in the league in pace. Defensively, they sit at 13th in the NBA in defensive rating, which has helped them keep games competitive even when their offense stalls. Against a Warriors team known for an explosive offense, Dallas will likely try to set a more deliberate tempo to limit transition opportunities for Golden State. Golden State, meanwhile, has shown a consistent defensive effort this season, ranking in the top five in defensive rating. Although they’re coming off a high-scoring win over Oklahoma City, the Warriors are well-suited to locking down opponents, especially when playing at home. Expect both teams to focus on defense and see fewer possessions in what should be a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 112, Mavericks 105. |
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11-10-24 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | Top | 127-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Phoenix at 8:10 pm ET on Sunday. |
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11-08-24 | Wizards +7 v. Grizzlies | Top | 104-128 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm ET on Friday. Washington, though coming off consecutive losses, has had time to rest and prepare for this matchup since their last game on Monday. The Wizards are just 2-4, but they’ve shown flashes of competitive play and could take advantage of a Memphis team that may be looking ahead to an upcoming road trip. This game also marks the beginning of a five-game road trip for Washington, so they should be focused and motivated to get off to a strong start. The added rest could help Washington’s key players bring fresh energy, allowing them to keep this one closer than expected. Memphis, sitting at 5-4, is coming off an impressive 131-114 win over the Lakers on Wednesday. However, with their own three-game road trip starting in Portland on Sunday, the Grizzlies could be in a prime letdown spot, especially with potential adjustments being made in light of recent injuries. Memphis has been solid at home, but with the focus potentially shifting toward the upcoming road games, they might not bring their sharpest intensity here. Washington’s rest advantage and Memphis’s possible shift in focus provide the Wizards with a solid opportunity to cover the spread. Take Washington. Prediction: Memphis 114, Washington 111. |
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11-01-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 217 | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We got the result we wanted from the Cavaliers most recent game as they lit up the scoreboard in a high-scoring 134-110 home win over the Lakers on Wednesday. Cleveland currently ranks second in the NBA in points per game this season but I do think some regression is in order. With that being said, the Magic are going to be in tough without their best offensive player in Paolo Banchero as he's sidelined with a torn oblique. Note that the Magic have already been held to 41 made field goals or fewer in each of their first five games this season and things don't figure to get better with Banchero out of the lineup. There is reason to believe Orlando can tread water, however, as it is an excellent defensive team. It ranks top-five in defensive rating this season and has allowed just one of five opponents to connect on more than 41 field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-24 | Hawks v. Thunder OVER 230 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Thunder were involved in a relatively low-scoring game in Chicago last night (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Hawks on Sunday. The pace was absolutely there for a much higher-scoring contest last night as the Thunder got off a whopping 107 field goal attempts while the Bulls hoisted up 92. The problem was, neither team shot well from the field (Thunder - 42% and Bulls - 35%). The Hawks may not be on the same level of the Thunder but they do have the offense to push them on Sunday. Note that while Oklahoma City was on the floor last night, Atlanta has been idle since Friday. The Hawks are off to a 2-0 start, scoring 120 and 125 points in those two contests. Of note, Atlanta allowed the Nets and Hornets to get off 91 and 96 field goal attempts, respectively. If it hands out scoring opportunities like that again on Sunday, the Thunder figure to go off. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 127-131 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Kings, who were idle last night following Thursday's narrow two-point home loss to the Timberwolves. Minnesota was in a bounce-back spot in that situation and came through. I expect Sacramento to do the same on Saturday. The Lakers rallied for a big win over the Suns on their home floor last night. They're off to a 2-0 start but I expect their success to be short-lived. Perception isn't reality in this case and I think the wrong team is being favored. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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10-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 108-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Rockets, who entered the season with plenty of optimism, were stunned in their home opener on Wednesday, falling at the hands of the Hornets. I'm confident we'll see them rebound on Friday as they host division-rival Memphis, which recorded a narrow victory in Utah in its first game of the campaign. I'm willing to chalk up the Rockets season-opening defeat as an anomaly given that it hoisted up a whopping 103 field goal attempts (compared to the Hornets' 85) but could only knock down 38 of them. Houston was also just 13-for-43 (30%) from beyond the arc in that defeat. We should see a slingshot effect for the Rockets offense here against a Grizzlies squad that allowed Utah to shoot 40-of-85 (47%) from the field on Wednesday. Not only that, Memphis sent Utah to the free throw line 45 times in that victory. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-24-24 | Wolves v. Kings OVER 227.5 | Top | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 39 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Timberwolves suffered a 110-103 defeat in their season-opener against the Lakers. It was an ugly offensive effort from a Minnesota team that should be able to light up the scoreboard this season. The T'Wolves shot 41% from the field including 32% from beyond the arc. For their part, the Lakers shot just 44% but Minnesota did allow them to get off a whopping 95 field goal attempts. Of note, Los Angeles connected on just 5-of-30 (17%) three-point attempts so the end result could have been far more lopsided. We'll call for Minnesota to bounce back offensively in its second game of the season on Thursday. The Kings figure to be a willing dance partner in what projects as an up-tempo affair. Sacramento is loaded offensively with Demar Derozan joining an already impressive group. The only question is whether there will be enough shots to go around but on this night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics OVER 209 | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I like the way this play sets up on Monday. The oddsmakers have been steadily dropping the total throughout this series and so far it hasn't done a thing to change the result as all four games have stayed 'under' the total. I believe they've made too much of an adjustment in advance of Game 5, however. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Mavericks games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points this season. I do think the Mavs figured a few things out in their Game 4 blowout victory at home as they finally pushed the pace and were rewarded with their highest scoring performance since Game 5 of the opening round against the Clippers. I do think we'll see a big response from the Celtics offense after they were held to a putrid 29 made field goals in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 13-4 with Boston seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season. The 'over' is also 3-0 with the Celtics coming off five straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Remember, the two regular season matchups between these two teams produced 229 and 248 total points. I still think this matchup can produce a track meet (where both teams participate) but we're obviously running out of runway in this series. Tonight is the night. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-24 | Celtics v. Mavs +1 | Top | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks certainly aren't going to rally to win this series but I do think we'll see them at least save face by avoiding the sweep on Friday night in Dallas. We'll back the trends here, noting that the Mavs are 15-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss this season and 12-3 ATS when coming off three straight losses over the last three seasons, including a 4-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Celtics are 3-5 ATS when coming off nine straight wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, and just 21-21 ATS as a road favorite this season. Also note that Boston is a long-term 3-5 ATS when leading a playoff series 3-0. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-09-24 | Mavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. Everything I've seen from the Mavericks in practice over the last couple of days points to this being a loose, confident group despite the blowout result in the Celtics favor in Game 1. We won with Boston in the series opener, but did note that this figures to be a long series (both literally and figuratively). Game 1 ultimately turned on a ridiculous stretch that saw the Celtics go unconscious from the field late in the second quarter, outscoring the Mavs 15-2. Now it's Dallas' turn to make the necessary adjustments, especially after seeing how Kristaps Porzingis would fit back in the rotation after missing an extended period of time. While they say a series doesn't really begin until a team wins a game on the road, the Mavs have to display a sense of urgency here as they're highly unlikely to win four of the next five games against a team as good as the Celtics should they fall behind 2-0 in this series. There's no reason for Dallas to push the panic button. After all, it has gone 32-19 SU and 34-17 ATS on the road this season and found itself in similar bounce-back spots in Game 2 against the Clippers and Thunder, winning on both occasions (I realize the Celtics are a more formidable opponent). The Mavs are 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, including a 4-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. While Boston is a winning team from an ATS perspective this season, it checks in just 13-13 ATS when coming off a double-digit home victory. The C's have also gone 3-6 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-27-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Monday. While the Pacers aren't going to rally to win this series, they can at least gain some respectability by avoiding the sweep at home on Monday night. Indiana has been right there in two of the three games in this series, ultimately dropping all three contests. The Celtics remain a long-term losing bet when leading a playoff series having gone 9-11 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons including a 3-5 ATS mark this season. Interestingly, the C's are also 2-5 ATS when coming off a road win by three points or less over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS record this season. Indiana is a long-term 19-13 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series including 2-0 ATS this season. They're an incredible 13-2 ATS when coming off a home defeat this season including 4-0 ATS when that loss came by three points or less. Take Indiana (10*). |
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05-26-24 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 208 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either game but both Games 1 and 2 made their way 'over' the total. I'll call for a different result as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The Mavericks completely stifled the Timberwolves offense in the first two games of this series. Here, it will be Minnesota's turn to rise to the occasion defensively as this is for all intents and purposes a must-win game. We know the T'Wolves are capable of taking their show on the road as they held the Nuggets to 35 or fewer made field goals in three of four games in Denver last round. I'm just not certain they can break through offensively against a Mavs squad that has now held nine of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Bettors are certainly spooked when it comes to backing the Pacers after they were drilled in Game 2 AND lost Tyrese Haliburton to what appears to be a hamstring injury (he's questionable to play on Saturday at the time of writing). We won't shy away from backing Indiana here, however, as it knows this series is over if it can't muster a victory on its home floor on Saturday. The Celtics have looked like a team on a mission through the first two games of this series and remain favorites to win the NBA title, rightfully so. We also know that they're prone to letdowns in certain situations and this will mark the first time in these playoffs they enter Game 3 sporting a 2-0 series lead. We don't need the Pacers to win this game outright, only to keep things competitive, just as they did in the opener in Beantown. I like Indiana to at the very least take Boston down to the wire on Saturday, regardless whether Haliburton is able to go. Take Indiana (10*). |
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05-23-24 | Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Boston at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers have shot the lights out in three straight games, perhaps fuelled by adrenaline playing on just one day of rest following a seven-game series win over the Knicks in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I think we'll see Indiana's offensive surge grind to a halt here but with that being said, I also don't envision the Celtics pushing the pace as much as they did in Tuesday's series-opener. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings between these two teams. The 'over' hasn't come through in four straight matchups since 1999! The 'under' is 4-3 in the Pacers seven games when coming off three straight ATS victories this season. The 'under' is also 5-4 with the Celtics coming off three consecutive ATS defeats this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 206 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've stayed on the sidelines from a totals perspective in this series so far, watching as most have gotten it wrong with the 'under' cashing in Games 1 and 2 in Denver and the 'over' coming through in Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota. I expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts back to Denver for a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Timberwolves seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 24-20 with Minnesota coming off an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-22 in the Nuggets last 52 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 10-5 record this season. When coming off consecutive road wins, Denver has seen the 'under' go 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 215 | Top | 91-121 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been a bit backwards as far as what most might have expected totals-wise. The two games played in New York sailed 'over' the total while the two contests in Indiana stayed 'under' the number. Here, I think we're seeing an over-adjustment to the total following those consecutive low-scoring affairs. The Pacers continue to push the tempo having gotten off 88 or more field goal attempts in all four games in this series. Meanwhile, the Knicks are quite simply coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season, knocking down just 30-of-89 field goal attempts in a blowout loss in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 84-69 in the Pacers last 153 games as an underdog including a 24-18 mark this season. The 'over' is also 20-14 in Indiana's last 34 games with the total set in the 210's, as is the case here, including a 4-2 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 11-4 with the Knicks playing at home with the total set in the 210's this season. They haven't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total since a five-game streak from March 8th to 16th. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-24 | Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This play sets up nicely after Game 2 of this series sailed 'over' the total with 229 points scored. Note that the Thunder have yet to post consecutive 'over' results in these playoffs (they last did so during a three-game streak from April 4th to 7th) while the Mavericks have posted a 4-4 o/u mark in the postseason. Both teams are in terrific defensive form with Oklahoma City having held 10 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals and Dallas having limited eight straight and 22 of its last 26 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. The 'under' is 24-16 in Oklahoma City's last 40 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-3 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 35-27 over the last three seasons with the Thunder seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent including a 7-4 mark this season. The Mavs have seen the 'under' go 54-46 as a home favorite over the last three seasons including a 19-13 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 24-13 in Dallas' last 37 games following an upset win including an 11-1 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Friday. The Pacers return home facing an 2-0 series deficit and while they'll be hard-pressed to win four of the next five games and take this series, I do expect them to at least make things interesting back at home as they check in as considerable favorites in Game 3 on Friday. Note that Indiana is 29-11 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season and 8-3 ATS when following consecutive SU defeats. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 0-3 ATS after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game this season not to mention 22-25 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and 10-11 ATS when checking in off three straight wins. New York has quite simply shot the lights out in the first two games in this series. It's not as if they've been playing with a large margin for error having gotten off 82 and 86 field goal attempts compared to the Pacers' 88 and 93 through the first two games in this series. This is a matchup where the pointspread hasn't factored in much with the SU winner going 17-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. With that in mind, we'll lay the points with the Pacers. Take Indiana (10*). |
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05-09-24 | Mavs +5 v. Thunder | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. The Thunder have now won four straight home meetings against the Mavericks with the closest margin of victory being seven points after drilling Dallas by a 117-95 score in Game 1 of this series. Note that Oklahoma City has now won three straight games against Dallas going back to the regular season. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't defeated in the Mavs in four straight matchups since back in 2016-17. Dallas checks in 44-39 ATS in its last 83 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more including a 23-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Mavs are also 9-2 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Thunder have now reeled off four straight ATS wins - matching their longest such winning streak since February. The last time they posted four consecutive ATS victories they went on to win their next game by only two points (as 8.5-point favorites) in Game 1 against the Pelicans last round. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-06-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 106-80 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves have reeled off five straight wins both SU and ATS but I look for those streaks to end here. Note that Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following five consecutive ATS victories including a 3-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and a 1-2 ATS record this season. The Nuggets have thrived when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent going 22-13 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons and 6-2 ATS this season. Additionally, Denver is a long-term 25-16 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home against a divisional opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-0 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and 3-0 ATS this season. I certainly don't expect the defending champion Nuggets to go down 2-0 in this series and it's worth noting that the T'Wolves have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 15 straight-up losses. Take Denver (10*). |
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05-05-24 | Magic v. Cavs -3 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Magic rallied for a win (and cover) in Game 6 of this series on Friday. That's par for the course as the home team has won each and every game in this series so far. I look for that trend to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Note that the Cavaliers are 58-51 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 100 points or more over the last three seasons including an 18-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're 54-50 ATS when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 20-14 ATS record this season. The Magic have had a double-digit advantage in terms of free throw attempts in each of the last two games and that's ultimately proved to be the difference from a pointspread perspective. As is often the case, I expect the script to flip as the scene shifts to Cleveland for Game 7 on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 200.5 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday. This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 202.5 | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday. Game 2 of this series found its way 'over' the total as the Heat staged a massive double-digit upset win. I look for a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami on Saturday. The pace certainly wouldn't lead you to believe we would have seen an 'over' result in Game 2. Miami made the most of its 75 field goal attempts while holding Boston to just 80. Keep in mind, Game 1 was played at a slow pace as well with the Celtics hoisting up 82 and the Heat 81. Note that the 'under' is 36-29 in Boston's last 65 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is 17-11 in Miami's last 28 games as a home underdog including a 6-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |